explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:2014: JWST Delays

2020-09-17T05:24:43Z

108.162.215.188: Comment on delays

Haha - I made this same graph 2 weeks ago! [[User:Cosmogoblin|Cosmogoblin]] ([[User talk:Cosmogoblin|talk]]) 17:39, 2 July 2018 (UTC)

Suggest the last sentence be made more general: "The title text refers to a fundamental question of the Big Bang Theory; will the universe expand forever, or will is collapse back on itself? The likely answer to this question has changed over the decades as new measurements have been made, and new theories such as dark matter and dark energy developed to explain the new measurements. Apparently, and for an analogous reason, between 2018 and 2020 the likely answer to the fundamental JWST question will change." [[User:GODZILLA|GODZILLA]] ([[User talk:GODZILLA|talk]]) 17:58, 2 July 2018 (UTC)
:I agree to the current sentence saying "and compares the universe’s accelerating expansion to the apparently ever-delaying schedule" but were the hell comes the conclusion that "the JWST will have enough delays to fill a universe"? This does not make any sense. [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 07:59, 3 July 2018 (UTC)

Does today's prediction of 2026 count? If that is included in the data set, it would then skew the best-fit line to be steeper. If a new prediction is made using that new best-fit line, that would further skew the line, and so on, causing the acceleration the title text anticipates between 2018 and 2020.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.63.88|162.158.63.88]] 20:10, 2 July 2018 (UTC)

> Until the slope of the line becomes more than one and the prediction goes to the past, right? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.16|108.162.216.16]] 21:55, 2 July 2018 (UTC)

:No, it doesn't count, because it's just '''prediction''', while the data set is of (official) '''planned launch dates'''. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 22:06, 2 July 2018 (UTC)

:The Wikipedia data (taking the midpoint for ranges) fits a linear function with slope 0.660618 and intercept 687.739. This implies convergence at 2026.45, which is why Randall is predicting late 2026 for the actual launch. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.22.56|172.69.22.56]] 15:04, 10 July 2018 (UTC)

[[wikipedia:Heinz von Foerster#Doomsday equation|Von Foersters's doomsday]] is Friday 13th of November 2026. (cue Twilight Zone intro) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.89.175|162.158.89.175]] 21:20, 2 July 2018 (UTC)

Why does he keep saying it's 2021? Is he trying to skip Trump's term or what? --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.211.10|172.68.211.10]] 00:30, 3 July 2018 (UTC)
Why do you think that Trump will get only 1 term?[[Special:Contributions/141.101.76.70|141.101.76.70]] 17:10, 3 July 2018 (UTC)

This is the same chart for the new airport in Berlin. Sadly its slope is not less than one, it is indeed accelerating... 
2006     2011 
2010     2012 
2012     2013 
2013     2014 
2014     2016 
2015     2018 
2016     2018 
2017     2022 
[[User:Fabian42|Fabian42]] ([[User talk:Fabian42|talk]]) 07:57, 3 July 2018 (UTC)
:[https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bau_des_Flughafens_Berlin_Brandenburg#cite_ref-136] says that the planned launch date from December 2017 is in October 2020 (not 2022). That would make the slope slightly less than 1 (unless you ignore the 2016->2011 data point, as outlier) --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.35|162.158.91.35]] 09:27, 4 July 2018 (UTC)
::There was a 2022 prediction earlier in 2017, I took the maximum value for each year. And honestly, 2202 sounds more reasonable than 2020 for me. [[User:Fabian42|Fabian42]] ([[User talk:Fabian42|talk]]) 14:39, 4 July 2018 (UTC)

I feel a quadratic regression would be needed to determine acceleration / deceleration [[Special:Contributions/172.68.59.24|172.68.59.24]] 13:54, 3 July 2018 (UTC)

: If you plot out the least-squares fit as it changes over time (i.e. repeat Randall's graph as each new data point was added), it fits a quadratic quite well. And converges to a 2025 date.

I wonder what this chart would look like for new york's 2nd avenue subway.
[[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.130|162.158.75.130]] 17:36, 3 July 2018 (UTC)

At least there _is_ a slope. How about Trump's wall? [[Special:Contributions/173.245.52.151|173.245.52.151]] 00:52, 4 July 2018 (UTC)

Two more lines are coming together... the year and the XKCD index. 2018 should happen next week. [[User:IonFreeman|IonFreeman]] ([[User talk:IonFreeman|talk]]) 14:22, 5 July 2018 (UTC)

The last three data points have a slope greater than one. Just sayin'. [[User:Redbelly98|Redbelly98]] ([[User talk:Redbelly98|talk]]) 19:55, 29 July 2018 (UTC)

:"NASA announced that the launch date has once again been delayed to 31 October 2021." THE RIDE NEVER ENDS [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.188|108.162.215.188]] 05:24, 17 September 2020 (UTC)

Talk:2360: Common Star Types

2020-09-17T04:53:24Z

108.162.215.188:

I'm thinking a table (Name, appearance, summary, ¿is real?, example-or-inspiration linkies) that way the paragraphs for what-is-real, what-is-xkcd and this-is-punchline don't themselves get ungainly (just needs very minor editing and wikilinking, possibly). And apols again to the first explained who seemed to appreciate their submission as only a placeholder so I overwrote rather than integrated. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.171|162.158.158.171]] 22:37, 16 September 2020 (UTC)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Eta_Carinae&oldid=978789727] remained on Wikipedia for all of six minutes :/ [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.149|162.158.62.149]] 23:40, 16 September 2020 (UTC)

Ten minutes, surely? [[User:Lightcaller|Lightcaller]] ([[User talk:Lightcaller|talk]]) 01:55, 17 September 2020 (UTC)

[https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jda.2017.10.005 Wat.] ([http://web.archive.org/web/20200917015430/https://openreview.net/pdf?id=SJgdPcVDPS Full text here.]) [[User:Lightcaller|Lightcaller]] ([[User talk:Lightcaller|talk]]) 01:55, 17 September 2020 (UTC)

And of course Brad Pitt is a star of yet another type... [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.188|108.162.215.188]] 04:53, 17 September 2020 (UTC)

2357: Polls vs the Street

2020-09-10T01:31:06Z

108.162.215.188: /* Transcript */ categories

{{comic
| number = 2357
| date = September 10, 2020
| title = Polls vs the Street
| image = polls_vs_the_street.png
| titletext = Other pollsters complain about declining response rates, but our poll showed that 96% of respondents would be 'somewhat likely' or 'very likely' to agree to answer a series of questions for a survey.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by AN APPRECIATIVE CAR. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic discusses getting data or opinions through a study (polls) or by getting them anecdotally (on the street). The phrase "voice on the street" is commonly used by news reporters who get opinions on issues by literally asking people walking by what they think, and has been previously mentioned (and derided) in [[756: Public Opinion]].

Many news organizations conduct polls (or pay polling firms to conduct polls) to assess the opinions of "the public". Many news shows also conduct "man-on-the-street" interviews (more formally known as ''{{w|vox populi}}'', "voice of the people"), to provide a human face of "the public" and engage viewers more. Many pollsters, pundits, and politicians worry about gaps between polls and ground-truth, as in the infamous "{{w|Dewey Defeats Truman}}" newspaper headline, and so White Hat is here extolling the virtues of interviewing [https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Appeal-to-Common-Folk "real people"] to get at that ground truth.

His first objection, that polls suggest "candidate X" is more favored, while the people on the street that White Hat interviews are more supportive of "candidate Y", sounds reasonable enough. (Based on when this comic was released, it may refer to the upcoming 2020 American general elections.) In fact, it is already a topic of concern by pollsters, known variously as the "{{w|Bradley effect}}" or "{{w|shy Tory factor}}", where some people will publicly profess one preference to a pollster but then vote some other way on the ballot. However, it quickly becomes clear that White Hat's methodology is riven by its own biases. It seems that he is literally just talking to people on the streets of his own town (where it's logistically impossible for the majority of people to live or visit; see [https://what-if.xkcd.com/8/ What If? #8]), and furthermore is conducting his conversations literally within the street itself, flouting traffic laws, rather than on sidewalks (perhaps a reference to the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak). It is true that he's getting "ground truth", but it's also true that he's only sampling a very small (and highly idiosyncratic) part of the whole population.

In the final panel, White Hat claims that, contrary to polls stating that playing in traffic is unpopular, everybody he meets on the street enjoys it. This is a joke about the phrase "on the street". Usually this phrase means people walking on the sidewalk beside a road, but White Hat is presumably taking the phrase literally and interviewing people he finds on the roadway. Most people have enough sense not to walk on the road for an extended period of time, but the ones who are found on the roadway must be those who have no qualms about darting around traffic on foot, despite the dangers. Hence the people he interviews enjoy playing in traffic.

The title text is a joke about {{w|selection bias}} and {{w|tautology}}. People who don't feel like taking surveys wouldn't get as far as answering a survey question about survey questions.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:White Hat: Polls are just numbers.
:White Hat: You have to talk to people on the ''street''.

:White Hat: Polls ''say'' most people support <Candidate X>.
:White Hat: But the people I talk to on the ''street'' support <Candidate Y>.

:White Hat: Polls ''claim'' most people don't live in my town and have never been here.
:White Hat: But the people I meet on the ''street'' tell a very different story.

:White Hat: According to ''polls'', most people don't like playing in traffic.
:White Hat: So why do I never seem to meet these people on the ''street''?

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Politics]]

598: Porn

2020-06-22T00:43:36Z

108.162.215.188: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 598
| date = June 17, 2009
| title = Porn
| image = porn.png
| titletext = I have a thing for corrupt women.
}}

==Explanation==
[[Cueball]]'s mention of how porn did not scar him is a reference to [http://www.xxxchurch.com/ a lot of testimony on how porn has negatively affected people's lives]. Of course, the porn really did affect the way he looked at women. Due to dial-up being of such a slow speed, videos that needed to be transmitted via dial-up had to be compressed using a lossy format, which reduces file sizes substantially but also causes heavy data losses; the result being that the new decompressed file would not be of the same quality of the original uncompressed file. In this case, the lossy format eats away at the detail of the picture, which, during decompression, results in blocky artifacts in an attempt to "reconstruct" the lost data. Since he associated blocky pictures with arousal, he seems to have trouble enjoying sex with his comparatively hi-fi girlfriend. In other words, the porn really did scar him after all.

The title text expands on this, referencing {{w|file corruption}}. It is also a pun on female "corruption," or a woman's awareness of her sexuality.

==Transcript==
:[Cueball is hunched up at a computer. A circle surrounds him; the rest of the panel is black. The text is written in a square panel above the white circle.]
:I shouldn't have watched all that porn as a teenager.

:[The text is above the picture in a square frame. A computer screen is shown. It displays an on-line video player, with what appears to be a Cueball-like guy performing cunnilingus on a Megan-like girl. Five other windows (maybe ads) are also visible, though what they depict is not clear. One of them has readable text above a picture (of what appear to be a fleshlight). The rest of the text, including a heading at the top, is unreadable. There is picture with a lady with "big" hair holding her arms out. She has two black blotches on each side of her body. Maybe representing her breast, perhaps in a bra.]
:It's not that it scarred me.
:Ad text: X 10

:[A modem is shown between the two text parts. The text is in two square frames.]
:It's just that we had dial-up.
:Modem: 14.4 kbps
:And now I'm stuck with a fetish.

:[Cueball and Megan are in bed together. The text above the picture is in a square frame.]
:For video compression.
:Cueball: Can you try to look... blockier?

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Multiple Cueballs]]
[[Category:Sex]]
[[Category:Fleshlights]]
[[Category:Puns]]

201: Christmas GPS

2016-09-19T02:29:22Z

108.162.215.188: There was an extra pipe character | in the URL for the Wikipedia page on ISO 8601. I removed it.

{{comic
| number = 201
| date = December 25, 2006
| title = Christmas GPS
| image = christmas gps.png
| titletext = If it's over water, and you can't get a boat or revise the rules to preserve the makeout, there is no helping you.
}}

==Explanation==
In the comic Cueball has gotten a GPS and asks Megan what to do with it. She suggest that they take their current coordinates and modify the latitude and longitude with a simple function based on their birthdays, thereby pointing to an arbitrary, non-random location. For example, if Cueball was born on let's say April 1, 1986 and Megan on August 12, 1988 and they are somewhere in New York ([https://toolserver.org/~geohack/geohack.php?pagename=New%20York%20City&params=40.768062_N_-73.98468_E_type:landmark 40.768062,-73.98468]), the coordinate they type could make ([https://toolserver.org/~geohack/geohack.php?params=40.040186_N_-73.081288_E_type:landmark 40.040186, -73.081288]) (assuming US date format), or ([https://toolserver.org/~geohack/geohack.php?params=40.860401_N_-73.880812_E_type:landmark 40.860401, -73.880812]) (assuming following [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_8601 ISO 8601]). The good thing about keeping the number before the decimal point is that the distance is still realistic to get to by car. Megan suggests to make out in this place. This procedure is somewhat of a precursor to [[Geohashing]].

The comic is a Christmas comic, since it came online on Christmas Day 2006.

The title text suggests if the location you make for yourselves is over water (which the example above happens to be), you either need to find a boat or find some rule that you can preserve the promise of making out, and if you can't do either, then there is no way you'd get to make out.

==Transcript==
:Cueball: Check it out-I got a GPS receiver for Christmas! What should we do with it?

:Megan: Let's take our latitude & longitude, put our birthdays after the decimal points, then go to that spot and make out.

:[Cueball is in love.]

:Merry Christmas from XKCD{{sic}}
:[Car driving off in to the distance.]

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Christmas]]
[[Category:Romance]]