2268: Further Research is Needed

2026-05-31T20:38:25Z

108.44.153.86: /* Transcript */

{{comic
| number = 2268
| date = February 14, 2020
| title = Further Research is Needed
| image = further_research_is_needed.png
| titletext = Further research is needed to fully understand how we managed to do such a good job.
}}

==Explanation==

In most scientific fields, it's very common to end research papers with the caveat that "{{w|further research is needed}}", or words to that effect. This is particularly true when reporting results on a topic that's not well studied, and in which there's not enough literature to form a broad consensus. This is a very reasonable suggestion, an individual research project may produce results that suggest a certain conclusion, but it would be foolhardy to take something as established fact based on a single study. Individual studies may produce misleading information, they may have flaws that don't become evident until later, they may be based on assumptions that don't hold up, or the results may end up having an alternate explanation (as when a correlation is found, but does not establish specific causation). It's all too common for science reporters, particularly in low-quality outlets, to draw broad and bold conclusions from a single study, but actual scientists quickly learn to be more cautious. Peer-reviewed papers will generally make clear that conclusions are tentative, and may be modified or even overturned by future research.

This comic's fictional paper, however, ends with a statement that the paper has resolved all the problems about its topic, and that no more research is necessary. Humorously, the authors are so confident in their research skills that they believe that they have solved all the problems in that particular topic that can be solved. Munroe jokes that he'd like to see researchers with "the guts" to make such a proclamation. In real life, doing so would likely damage the reputation of the study's authors, because it would reveal both a breathtaking arrogance and a lack of understanding of the research process. If nothing else, studies need to be replicated, to establish that the initial data gathering was accurate. In addition, no single study could realistically address every aspect, variation and complication in a given topic. It's simply not feasible that a single paper could "[resolve] all remaining questions" on any given topic, and making such a ridiculous claim would badly damage a researcher's credibility. At the same time, if no further research were necessary, every researcher in the field, including the author who wrote the study, would need to either change fields or change careers. The title text ironically states that "further research" ''is'' indeed needed to understand how the researchers who wrote the paper were able to resolve all the problems in that topic or field, thus allowing the researchers to justify future funding for their research.

Perhaps the statement most like this made by a real scientist was by {{w|Albert A. Michelson}}, at the 1894 dedication of the University of Chicago's Reyerson Physical Laboratory: "[I]t seems probable that most of the grand underlying principles have been firmly established and that further advances are to be sought chiefly in the rigorous application of these principles to all the phenomena which come under our notice." (Variants of this statement are sometimes misattributed to {{w|William Thomson, 1st Baron Kelvin}}.) Even this statement is couched in much less certainty than the concluding statement presented in this comic strip, and sure enough, just eleven years later, {{w|Albert Einstein}} wrote his {{w|Annus Mirabilis papers}}. These four papers explained the photoelectric effect, Brownian motion, special relativity, and mass-energy equivalence, turning established physics on its head. Ironically, Michelson made this statement despite the fact that he himself had upset a major of notion of established physics just seven years before, when the {{w|Michelson-Morley experiment}} demonstrated that the speed of light was constant, disproving the {{w|Aether theories}} then prevalent in physics. This result in turn was part of the inspiration for Einstein's theory of special relativity.

While not strictly research, mathematical papers often conclusively prove something as a verifiable fact, meaning that "further research" (or study) is often not needed (unless of course the results create more questions to be answered).

==Transcript==
:[A panel, representing an excerpt from a scholarly journal, with the last two sentences clearly visible, as well as the beginning of a references section. The text is written with normal capitalization rather than in all caps. The last reference is partially below the panel's edge.]
:We believe this resolves all remaining questions on this topic. No further research is needed.
:[horizontal line]
:References
:1. [unreadable text]
:2. [unreadable text]
:3. [unreadable text]
:4. [unreadable text]

:[Caption below the panel:]
:Just once, I want to see a research paper with the guts to end this way.

==Trivia==

* The mentioned closure of scientific papers seems to be iconic enough to have an {{w|Further research is needed|Wikipedia article of its own}}. That article, in turn, points to this comic as an "in culture" reference.
* There was a scientific paper by James C. Coyne and Eric van Sonderen from University of Groningen, titled ''[https://www.rug.nl/research/portal/files/6774405/Coyne_2012_J_Psychosom_Res.pdf No further research needed]'', on the necessity of abandoning the Hospital and Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS).
* In 2020, a study titled "Effect of hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin on the mortality of COVID-19 patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis" included the text "Our results suggest that there is no need for further studies evaluating these molecules".
* In 2020, Jonathan Meer’s economics working paper ''[https://oaktrust.library.tamu.edu/bitstreams/64de651d-fb5c-4d6e-930b-5f2e87acd4c5/download Generosity Across the Income and Wealth Distributions]'' ended with the exact phrase "We believe this resolves all remaining questions on this topic. No further research is needed".
* We believe this resolves all remaining questions on this comic. No further explanation is needed.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Scientific research]]

3243: Crystal Gazing

2026-05-28T01:55:27Z

108.44.153.86: the graph is deceptive in having only two clearly visible line ends, but there are apparently three lines intersecting on the graph, not two

{{comic
| number = 3243
| date = May 8, 2026
| title = Crystal Gazing
| image = crystal_gazing_2x.png
| imagesize = 281x397px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = 'Beyond that lies a vale of fire through which my vision cannot penetrate' is the kind of fun thing geologists, heliophysicists, and early universe cosmologists have a lot of opportunities to say.
}}

==Explanation==
A {{w|geochronology|geochronologist}} (someone who estimates the ages of rocks, fossils, etc.) dressed up as a wizard (assuming that isn't how they normally dress) announces — in archaic language befitting his costume — that he has determined the {{w|age of the Earth}} by analyzing {{w|zircon}}. Zircon is a crystal with the formula ZrSiO<sub>4</sub>. During its formation it can incorporate uranium instead of zirconium in its crystal lattice, but cannot incorporate lead. The uranium then decays (via several intermediates) into lead. Thus a sufficiently old zircon crystal will contain some lead, allowing geologists to {{w|Detrital_zircon_geochronology|calculate its age}}. This method is especially reliable, since uranium-238 decays into lead-206 with a half-life of 4.5 billion years, while uranium-235 decays into lead-207 with a half-life of 0.7 billion years, allowing geologists to determine the age even where some lead was lost from the crystal. The geochronologist says he predicted the age of the Earth by gazing into the [[2776|crystal]], similar to the traditional fortune tellers' method of making predictions by gazing into crystal balls.

A prophet of doom is someone who predicts impending disasters, particularly the end of the world (and there are lots of ridiculous ways that [https://what-if.xkcd.com/archive/ could happen]). These prophets and predictions are especially common in fantasy media. The joke in the caption is that someone who can determine when the world began is just doing this in reverse, and that's what geochronologists are doing when they calculate the age of the Earth. His last line, "the beginning was nigh", is a reversal of the phrase stereotypically used by prophets of doom: "the end is nigh". This is in keeping with the idea represented in the comic.

The title text points out, in similar flowery language (in keeping with the character being a wizard from a {{w|J. R. R. Tolkien|Tolkienesque}} or {{w|Dungeons & Dragons}}-type world, where [https://tolkiengateway.net/wiki/Vales_of_Anduin vales] are often part of the geographical language), that many areas of physical sciences have a limiting horizon to their ability to study their subject. {{w|Geologists}} are limited by the early molten history of the Earth, in that most of the crust has been recycled back into the molten mantle at some point, and the mantle acts as a physical 'vale of fire' for the core — each limiting what can be studied. Similarly, {{w|heliophysicists}} have difficulty knowing what happens within the Sun due to the physical 'vale of fire' that is the Sun's {{w|photosphere}}. Finally, {{w|cosmologists}} have difficulty studying the universe beyond the {{w|recombination (cosmology)|recombination epoch}}, beyond which the universe is shielded by a 'vale of fire' (the {{w|surface of last scattering }} from which photons of the {{w|cosmic microwave background}} escape) from electromagnetic observation — both in time (investigating the early universe) or in space (investigating beyond the event horizon of the visible universe).

[[:Category:Dungeons & Dragons|D&D]] is a recurring topic on xkcd.

==Transcript==

:[A character in wizard garb with long beard and hair talks to Cueball. To the left of the wizard is a poster with illegible text over a graph with three lines intersecting.]

:Wizard: By gazing into my crystals of zircon, I have divined the date of the hour of fire marking the limit of this world's existence.
:Wizard: 4.54 billion years ago, the beginning was nigh!

:[Caption below comic:]
:Geochronologists are just reverse prophets of doom.

{{comic discussion}}<noinclude>
[[Category:Geology]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]

explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

2268: Further Research is Needed

3243: Crystal Gazing