explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:1461: Payloads

2014-12-18T23:50:06Z

141.101.75.89: Laika

It's possible he's talking about [http://poorlydrawnlines.com/comic/earth-and-moon/ this comic].
[[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.203|108.162.249.203]] 07:20, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

I think he used horses as a reference to the unit of work, horse power, but in this case instead of being the 550 foot pounds per second, it is the force required to put a horse at that altitude
[[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.195|199.27.128.195]] 08:10, 17 December 2014 (UTC)
:The top one clearly says "Spacecraft mass" and the bottom says "Capacity" (which is normally either the mass or volume something can hold), so I don't think either refers to force. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.175|173.245.54.175]] 08:32, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

Horses might also be used as a length unit... I am wondering if this is somehow related to the size of SRBs [http://www.snopes.com/history/american/gauge.asp] ;-) {{unsigned|Ld75}}
:There is the famous tail (no pun intended) of how the width of the Space Shuttles SRBs are related to the width of a horses, er, um, butt -- which apparently is not true. However, similarly to the "Upgoer Five", Randall may just be trying to relate a very difficult to grasp concept (weight of a huge object) to something that with which a large number of people may be familiar. [[User:Jarod997|Jarod997]] ([[User talk:Jarod997|talk]]) 14:34, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

A few mass calculations: (All masses from wikipedia)

* ISS - 450,000 kg / 932 Horses = 483 kg/Horse
* Skylab - 77,088 kg / 171 Horses = 450 kg/Horse
* Mir - 129,700 kg / 286 Horses = 453 kg/Horse
* Shuttle Payload - 24,400 kg / 54 Horses = 452 kg/Horse
* Compton GRO - 17,000 kg / 38 Horses = 447 kg/Horse

It looks like Randall probably used 450kg as a standard horse, which seems like a fairly average weight for a {{w|Horse#Size and Measurement|horse}}. --[[User:Pudder|Pudder]] ([[User talk:Pudder|talk]]) 09:06, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

Curious: the Atlas-Centaur rocket is listed as lifting Centaurs, not horses. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.244|141.101.98.244]] 09:11, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

:Plus the Pegasus rocket is labelled as lifting one (mythical, horse-sized?) Pegasus. I took this as synchronicity, but currently someone (who missed the Centaur reference in the part of the main text about "joke additions/deviations") who edited the the main text seems to think that it's purely a mythical reference. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.245|141.101.98.245]] 13:27, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

The Keyhole captions are wrong; assuming 450 kg/horse, 40 horses for the [[wikipedia:KH-7 Gambit|Keyhole 7]] would be around 18,000 kg. Documents declassified a couple of years ago give the mass as around 2,000 kg. The [[wikipedia:Corona (satellite)|Keyhole 3]] was even smaller. The mass and dates are about right for [[wikipedia:KH-11 Kennan|Keyhole 11]] satellites but I don't know where the 3 and 7 have come from (the dates are wrong for the third and seventh Keyhole 11s) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.85|141.101.99.85]] 09:43, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

Initially I thought that the position of 'T Rex' along the X axis (approx 1985) may be a link to the band {{w|T. Rex (band)|T.Rex}}, but according to wiki that was 1967-1977. I guess it could be a random date, but thats not usually Randall's style... --[[User:Pudder|Pudder]] ([[User talk:Pudder|talk]]) 10:51, 17 December 2014 (UTC)
:The T Rex "Sue" was discovered in August 1990. Not quite right, either. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.250.214|108.162.250.214]] 11:10, 17 December 2014 (UTC)
::Perhaps a reference to the date of 'Jurassic Park'? Not sure exactly when that came out but I think it's in the right range. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.238.189|108.162.238.189]] 14:55, 17 December 2014 (UTC)
:::Hadn't thought of that.. Though after checking, {{w|Jurassic Park}} was released 1993, and I believe set in 1990. Still doesn't seem to tie up.. --[[User:Pudder|Pudder]] ([[User talk:Pudder|talk]]) 15:22, 17 December 2014 (UTC)
::::I never knew there was ever a space craft called "T-Rex". Learn something new everyday! ;) {{unsigned|Dangerkeith3000}}

The Oldsmobile is probably a reference to the movie ''{{w|Mom and Dad Save the World}}''. The title characters' station wagon was from around that era -- and it ''did'' go into space in the movie. --[[User:Aaron of Mpls|Aaron of Mpls]] ([[User talk:Aaron of Mpls|talk]]) 11:47, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

'''Terrastar''' may be referring to [[wikipedia:TerreStar-1|TerreStar-1]], with a launch mass of 6,910 kg, divided by 15 horses is about 460 kg/Horse. This is consistent with the above calculations. [[User:Jarod997|Jarod997]] ([[User talk:Jarod997|talk]]) 14:23, 17 December 2014 (UTC)
:Based on that and its accurate position on the X axis, I would agree with you. I've added it to the table, with a note below. --[[User:Pudder|Pudder]] ([[User talk:Pudder|talk]]) 14:38, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

'''Thor''' may be referring to the [[wikipedia:Thor-Able|Thor-Able]] launch vehicle. First flight of 1958 (good position on the graph), and payload of 120 kg is about 40 kg / dog -- that's a bit high for an average, but depending on the breed it could be accurate. [[User:Jarod997|Jarod997]] ([[User talk:Jarod997|talk]]) 14:58, 17 December 2014 (UTC)
:Yes, I believe that is correct. Added to tables. --[[User:Pudder|Pudder]] ([[User talk:Pudder|talk]]) 15:22, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

Based on horse payload, location on X-axis (time of first launch?), and some general wikipedia browsing, I believe the unlabeled launch vehicle on the bottom is a Delta IV Medium. According to Wikipedia, it was first launched on 11 March 2003, which fits the location on the timeline. It had an LEO payload capacity of 9,420 kg, which equates to 20.9333333 horses at the estimation of 450kg/horse. For reference, all my information was pulled from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_IV#Delta_IV_Medium. [[User:Screamsquad|Screamsquad]] ([[User talk:Screamsquad|talk]]) 16:20, 17 December 2014 (UTC)
:Certainly seems a likely candidate..--[[User:Pudder|Pudder]] ([[User talk:Pudder|talk]]) 17:08, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

;Title Text Calcs

I did some calculations on the title text, though I'm not sure how correct they are. We can use our standard horse at 450kg, and assuming 9.81m/s2 gravity (neglecting the slight drop in gravity as it moves up the space elevator), the formula I've used is:

<pre>1 Watt = 1 Newton raised 1 Metre in 1 Sec
Power[Watts] = (450[kg] * 9.81[m/s2]) * LEO[m] / Time[s]</pre>

A large power station is a pretty vague measure, but I would guess we are looking at around 1GW. I found a 30 acre solar farm (in the not-so-sunny UK) with an output of 5MW, scaled linearly (which may well not be valid) a 0.6 acre (2500m2 back yard could yield 93.5kW. Using these power guesstimates, we can calculate the altitude at which the 500 horses/year and 10 horses/minute converge. It works out at roughly 1350km. Depending on where you look, LEO is [https://www.google.com/search?q=Low+earth+orbit&rls=com.microsoft%3Aen-gb%3AIE-SearchBox&oe=UTF-8&gfe_rd=cr&gws_rd=ssl&oq=&gs_l= classified as anything under 2000km].

Now I know there are a lot of assumptions in there, and really the whole formula is backwards, but hey... its a starting point! --[[User:Pudder|Pudder]] ([[User talk:Pudder|talk]]) 17:05, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

I think Randall may have been talking to Andrew Hussie --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.106.89|141.101.106.89]] 21:50, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

https://what-if.xkcd.com/58/
Getting to space is easy, staying in space is hard.

The energy required to get to 100km, briefly, is about 1 MJ/kg
The energy required to stay in low earth orbit is a bit over 30 MJ/kg

It's tricky to get to low earth orbit with a space elevator, you can go up 200km, but as soon as you let go of the elevator you come down. If you put enough mass at 200km the whole elevator comes down. Not sure which number to use, but I'd go with the 30 MJ/kg, or 15 GJ/horse. So the solar array is about 240kW (averaged over the whole year) and the power plant is 2.5GW. This looks a bit high so maybe the horses don't stay in orbit.

--[[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.248|108.162.219.248]] 15:49, 18 December 2014 (UTC)

It depends on what he means by launch I suppose. I had simply looked at getting to LEO altitude, but staying there once you let go of the cable is a whole different ball game. I believe the only way to get into orbit from a space elevator (lacking additional power) is to go right to geostationary height? Let go anywhere under that altitude and you go into orbital decay.

Out of interest, where did you get the 1MJ/kg and 30MJ/kg values? As far as power stations, the new generation twin reactor {{w|Hinkley Point C nuclear power station}} (only know that one because its local to me) is designed to output 3.2GW, so 2.5GW isn't over the top. I would say that 240kW for aback yard solar farm is pretty large, depending on your location and size of back yard. --[[User:Pudder|Pudder]] ([[User talk:Pudder|talk]]) 17:11, 18 December 2014 (UTC)

I filled out the remaining fields. I thought about getting the interior capacities of all 1981 Oldsmobile models but doesn't seem worth it. It's clearly a joke so that kind of research doesn't seem necessary.

'''Arrow of Time'''
Did anyone else notice the special advert for Xmas gifts? It was up at the top of the main xkcd page yesterday 2014-December-17, but gone today (the 18th). In black, blue and red colored printing it said:
----
"The XKCD store Christmas shipping deadline is Friday!
Once it passes, there is no going back. The arrow of time drags us all
inexorably forward toward decay and disorder toward the end of all things.
Toward the empty silence of the grave. ORDER NOW!"
----
I thought it was amusing and saved a bitmap. Was kind of surprised that there was no other mention of this here, or on the fora either.

----
Actually, I find it strange that no explicit mention of Laika or Sputnik 2 is made. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.75.89|141.101.75.89]] 23:50, 18 December 2014 (UTC)

1413: Suddenly Popular

2014-08-27T12:34:53Z

141.101.75.89: metadata is a more general term

{{comic
| number = 1413
| date = August 27, 2014
| title = Suddenly Popular
| image = suddenly_popular.png
| titletext = Are Your Teens Practicing Amplexus? Learn These Six Telltale Signs!
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Add explanation of each entry.}}

Many phrases that used to be of mainly academic interest become popular when an important event or global trend is described with such phrases in the media. Randall presents a timeline of past examples, and predicts phrases that may be popularised in the near future.

;World Wide Web
: Though first proposed in 1989, and the first test being completed in 1990, it took until around 1994 for the {{w|World Wide Web|world wide web}} to start becoming well known.

;DNA Evidence
: Prominent coverage of the {{w|O. J. Simpson murder trial}} in 1994 brought widespread discussion of {{w|DNA profiling|DNA Evidence}}, making it famous and showing its limitations.

;Militia Movement
: After the standoffs at {{w|Ruby Ridge}}, Idaho and the {{w|Branch Davidians}} compound in Waco, Texas between U.S. Government Agencies and militias, people started becoming more aware of their presence, culminating with the 1995 {{w|Oklahoma City Bombing}} on the second anniversary of the fire at the Branch Davidians compound.

;Supermax
: ({{w|Supermax prison|Super-Maximum Security prisons}})

;Butterfly Ballot
: In {{w|United States presidential election in Florida, 2000|United States presidential election in 2000, Florida}} had a major recount dispute that took center stage in the election. Thus, the outcome of the 2000 United States presidential election was not known for more than a month after balloting, because of the extended process of counting and then recounting of Florida presidential ballots.

;Al-Qaeda
: The {{w|September 11th terrorist attacks}} brought the Al-Qaeda terrorist organisation into the spotlight almost overnight.

;Wi-Fi
: {{w|Wi-Fi}}, though developed in the '90s, first became popular in the early 2000s.

;Tsunami
: There were a number of tsunamis around this time period, in particular the {{w|Boxing Day Tsunami}} which caused 230,000 deaths, and the {{w|2006 Pangandaran earthquake and tsunami}}. These were some of the first tsunamis to be widely captured on camera, bringing these previously obscure seismic events into the public eye.

;Viral
:In this context, the word viral is used to describe anything which spreads rapidly and widely on the internet. In particular an online video clip is said to have 'Gone Viral' or become a {{w|Viral video}} if it racks up a high number of views over a short time. This phenomenon has become especially prevalent due to users sharing content on {{w|Social media}}.

;Radicalize
:

;Metadata
: Following the highly publicised 2013 leaks by {{w|Edward Snowden}} of information regarding the {{w|NSA}}'s indiscriminate surveillance of global communication metadata, awareness of the privacy value of such data became widespread, where once it was limited to IT professionals.

''From this point onwards, phrases were in the future at the time of publishing''

;Lahar
: A {{w|Lahar}} is a mudslide caused by the eruption of a volcano. Randall is speculating on a future natural disaster being caused by such an incident.

;Insect-Borne
: Some {{w|Category:Insect-borne diseases|diseases are insect-borne}}, meaning specific species of insects are the main vector in spreading to humans. Malaria is an example of an insect-borne disease. Randall predicts some deadly insect-borne disease will emerge around this time.

;Earth-Crossing
: {{w|Earth-crosser}}s are asteroids that crosses the orbit of Earth. Most of them are harmless because they cross the orbit when Earth is not there. For this phrase to become popular, the Earth-crosser would have to become hazardous asteroid, meaining it crosses the orbit so close to Earth it may collide with it. Such an asteroid would rate 5 or more on the {{w|Torino Scale}}. As of 2014, there is no known asteroid either having this rating or being potentially dangerous in the early 2020s. Because of the next two phrases, it seems that Randall here predicts an asteroid of 10 on the Torino Scale, with at least 5 km in diameter and impacting in the ocean.

;Thermohaline
: Thermohaline circulation is one of the ocean circulations. This circulation equalizes the temperature and salinity of oceans in all parts of the world, stabilizing global climate. If this phrase becomes popular, the thermohaline circulation would probably become problematic or come to at least a partial halt. This may be caused by an impact of a large asteroid.

;Snow-Blindness
: This phrase suggests the asteroid impact caused a long {{w|impact winter}}. Snow-blindness is an eye condition caused by excessive exposure of cornea to UV light which leads to (temporarily if treated properly) blindness. The source of the excessive exposure is light reflected from snow and ice.

;Amplexus
:

;Controlled Hydroplaning
:

;Paradoxical Reaction
:A {{w|Paradoxical reaction}} is a medical term for when the outcome of a medical treatment, typically the taking of a drug, is the opposite of that expected. For example taking a pain relieving medication make the pain worse. For this term to suddenly become well known, a large scale or particularly notable case must have taken place.

;Drone Desertion
:{{w|Desertion}} is the abandonment of a post or duty, usually military in nature. With the increasing use of autonomous drones by the military this hints at an event where drones 'decide' to desert, possibly due to unspecified advances in {{w|Artificial Intelligence}} and {{w|Robot Rights}}.

;Rapid Hair Growth
:

;I Swear Allegiance To The God-Empress In Life And In Death
: May be a reference to [http://www.fimfiction.net/story/62041/the-god-empress-of-ponykind.html The God-Empress of Ponykind] - a {{w|My Little Pony}} / {{w|Warhammer 40,000}} fanfic.

==Transcript==
Title: Obscure words and phrases everyone suddenly becomes very familiar with.

{|
|
| <-- {{w|World Wide Web}}
|-
|
| <-- {{w|DNA profiling|DNA Evidence}}
|-
| 1995
|
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Militia organizations in the United States|Militia Movement}}
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Supermax prison|Supermax}}
|-
| 2000
|
|-
|
| <-- {{w|United States presidential election in Florida, 2000|Butterfly Ballot}}
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Al-Qaeda|Al-Qaeda}}
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Wi-Fi}}
|-
| 2005
|
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Tsunami}}
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Viral video|Viral}}
|-
| 2010
|
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Radicalization|Radicalize}}
|-
|
|
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Metadata}}
|-
| 2015
|
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Lahar}}
|-
|
|
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Category:Insect-borne diseases|Insect-Borne}}
|-
| 2020
|
|-
|
| <-- {{w|List_of_Earth-crossing_minor_planets|Earth-Crossing}}
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Thermohaline_circulation‎|Thermohaline}}
|-
|
|
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Photokeratitis|Snow-Blindness}}
|-
| 2025
|
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Amplexus}}
|-
|
|
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Aquaplaning|Controlled Hydroplaning}}
|-
| 2030
|
|-
|
| <-- {{w|Paradoxical reaction|Paradoxical Reaction}}
|-
|
| <-- Drone {{w|Desertion|Desertion}}
|-
|
| <-- Rapid Hair Growth
|-
| 2035
|
|-
|
|
|-
|
| <-- I Swear Allegiance To The God-Empress In Life And In Death
|-
| 2040
|
|-
|}

{{comic discussion}}

Talk:1379: 4.5 Degrees

2014-06-09T15:51:25Z

141.101.75.89:

Scary thoughts there... [[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 05:11, 9 June 2014 (UTC)

I imagine the Earth's axial tilt wouldn't change even if the temperature changed by +2 IAU. So, would palm trees survive the extreme day/night lengths at the poles? [[Special:Contributions/103.22.201.239|103.22.201.239]] 05:31, 9 June 2014 (UTC) P.S. Also, wouldn't the North Pole be underwater, so incapable of supporting palm trees?
Also, regarding the IAU, is it a reference to the {{w|International Astronomical Union|IAU}} that named an {{w|4942 Munroe|asteroid}} after Randall?

"While it says it's "probably no big deal," this is probably a joke, because even half of an Ice Age would be a lot of ice." The article has it wrong. It's a 2 degree increase, not decrease. Ice would melt. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.238.134|108.162.238.134]] 07:33, 9 June 2014 (UTC)
:-- Fixed

To prevent global warming, act yesterday! ... or, well, since we already failed to do it, maybe ... just maybe ... we should invest some resources to ADAPTING to the change. Because the USSR communist party wanted to command “wind and rain” and how it worked?
... of course, we SHOULD be trying to lower the CO2 emissions ... not like Germany, which [http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2014/01/16/germanys_plans_for_new_coal_plants_107463.html replaced it's nuclear power plants with coal ones] ... -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 10:03, 9 June 2014 (UTC)
:While it is true that we have build more coal plants, the majority part that replace the nuclear power is from renewable energy, see [https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strommix#mediaviewer/Datei:Energiemix_Deutschland.svg diagram] on wikipedia. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.75.89|141.101.75.89]] 15:51, 9 June 2014 (UTC)

Well, ''this'' seems like a topic that could generate heated comments. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.208.9|108.162.208.9]] 10:09, 9 June 2014 (UTC)

Would anyone care to comment on the +200 meter sea rise? I googled "how much would sea level rise" a bit, and I seem to bump into 60 to 70 meters repeatedly for all glaciers melting. I found nothing direct from IPCC. I wonder if Randall really has another view on this.
:I hope the explanation isn't that he made a meter/feet mistake. [[Special:Contributions/103.22.201.239|103.22.201.239]] 13:04, 9 June 2014 (UTC)
::I would assert that he rounded for a clean read for a relative scale. Also, the '+' denotes the likelihood of a larger actual amount.
:::60 meters is indeed the amount the sea would rise if all the glacial ice melted. However, that figure presumably does not take into account have much the sea would rise by expansion due to the increased heat. That is, after all, the main reason for rising sea levels today. So I would guess that the +200 figure is the 60 meters of added water from glacial ice ''plus'' the amount it would rise due to warming and expanding. [[User:Calebxy|Calebxy]] ([[User talk:Calebxy|talk]])
::::While that's possible, and desalination of water can also cause it to expand (sea water is more dense than fresh), we shouldn't try to justify the numbers if they are incorrect. If we can find some reliable data to suggest the rise would be 200 ft instead of 200m, we should include that. Or at least include a range of estimates from reliable sources. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.238.134|108.162.238.134]] 15:42, 9 June 2014 (UTC)
:::::Having just re-read the explanation after posting my comment, I can see that the article attempts to do just that. But the link provided says 110 to 770 mm. Isn't the millimeters? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.238.134|108.162.238.134]] 15:44, 9 June 2014 (UTC)