explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

887: Future Timeline

2021-11-30T11:44:52Z

141.101.77.126: /* The predictions */

{{comic
| number = 887
| date = April 18, 2011
| title = Future Timeline
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]
| image = future timeline.png
| titletext = Not shown: the approximately 30,000 identical, vaguely hysterical articles titled "WHITE PEOPLE IN [THE US/BRITAIN] TO BECOME MINORITY BY [YEAR]!", which came up for basically any year I put in.
}}

==Explanation==
This comic uses the same strategy as comic [[715: Numbers]], in which [[Randall]] uses Google to search for phrases and then charts the results. This one is charted as a timeline, whereas 715 was charted as line graphs.
It is a list of things predicted or announced by anyone at any time (the ones you see on Google search using "by the year..." or similar statements).

"2101 - War Was Beginning" is a reference to the opening narration of video game ''Zero Wing''; the same narration is famous for the internet meme "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}". As there are not any other out and out references in the comic, and the rest are actually results that you can find using Randall's methods, "War Was Beginning" was probably the only thing he got when he googled 2101 as well.

Certain events in this comic, e.g. "Social Security stops running surplus", are repeated multiple times. Also, certain bizarre events, like "Apocalypse occurs", or "Flying cars reach market", happen before rather plausible things, like "'Big one' hits California". Certain events, like "Japan is a robot-only country" or "Gillette introduces 14-blade razor" may be related to the recurring theme [[605: Extrapolating]].

The title text is a reference to a reoccurring scaremonger theory that European people will become a minority or extinct as other ethnicities outbreed them. For maximum scaremongering they will claim this could happen in the near future, complete with extrapolated graphs. In the years since this comic was published these conspiracy theories have come to be known as "the great replacement" or "white genocide". Scaremongers are banking on the idea their target audience will[https://www.cjr.org/special_report/media-literacy-trump-fake-news.php rarely bother to fact check,] as analysis of their extrapolations usually reveals incorrect methodology [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUbxVfSqtt8 if not outright lies.]

This comic has similar features to [[1413: Suddenly Popular]], [[1093: Forget]], and [[891: Movie Ages]].

==The predictions==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Year
! Prediction
! Further Details
! Outcome
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2012
| World population
| Ever since the advent of modern medicine and the more efficient agricultural processes developed since the Industrial Revolution, the human population had been growing at an unprecedented rate. This has caused some people to worry about overpopulation, which would cause a scarcity of resources and overcrowding, and propose various solutions, most of which involve some form of eugenics. 7 billion is a landmark number because it is a multiple of 1 billion.
| Close; Earth reached 7 billion in late 2011.
|-
| Flying cars
| For decades, flying cars have been a staple of futuristic sci-fi and technological predictions. So far very few of these predictions, which to tend to hover around 5–10 years from whatever the current date is, have come true.
| Too early; a flying car was first demonstrated in July 2021.{{Actual citation needed}} You could argue that helicopters count as flying cars, but these are not affordable{{citation needed}} and hence not widely used by the general public.
|-
| Canada cuts greenhouse emissions
| Currently, the Earth is experiencing an unprecedented period of warming we call global warming, caused in part by greenhouse emissions, which are gases that help trap heat in the atmosphere. Countries have repeatedly gotten together and promised to stop emitting greenhouse gases, but so far they have failed to meet their targets.
| False. Canada withdrew from the Kyoto treaty in late 2011, and its emissions in 2012 were 18% ''above'' 1990 levels (though its population had grown 26% and its GDP had grown 67% in that period).
|-
| Apocalypse occurs
| The end of a cycle of the Mayan calendar on December 22, 2012 has been used in popular culture as a basis for predicting the end of the world. Amongst other things, this included the film '2012'. Some people took this rather more seriously, and actually believed that the world would end on this date.
| False.{{Citation needed}}
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2013
| National debt paid off
| For years, the subject of national debt (in the USA) has been a political point of contention. While both parties theoretically support reducing the debt or paying it off entirely, Democrats are more willing to spend to pull the country out of recessions in the economy and Republicans to cut taxes. The last time that spending did not exceed revenue begin under Clinton, a Democrat, and ended after George W. Bush, a Republican, said that this amounted to taxpayers being "overcharged" and taxes were lowered, followed by the Great Recession. Clinton at one point proposed [http://money.cnn.com/1999/06/28/economy/clinton/ paying off the debt by 2015].
| False.
|-
| Microchipping Americans
| Microchips are small computer chips, typically embedded in pets in case they get lost, that contain information about the pet. Some, more paranoid, people worry about the government microchipping everyone in an effort to monitor their activities.
| False, although RFID implants do exist.
|-
| Homelessness ended in MA
| In 2008, the Commission To End Homelessness in Massachusetts, under Governor Deval Patrick, proposed a plan to all but eliminate homelessness over the next five years (hence the 2013 end-date on the comic).
| False.
|-
| Health care reform law repealed
| A health care reform law, popularly known as Obamacare, was signed into law in 2010. Ever since, many Republicans have tried (in vain) to repeal it, disliking the idea that government should provide and require healthcare. However, President Joe Biden has stated to restore Obamacare.
| Too early; almost repealed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2014
| US leaves Afghanistan
| After the {{w|September 11 attacks|terrorist attack}} on the {{w|World Trade Center (1973–2001)|World Trade Center}} (WTC) in New York on September 11, 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan, which at the time allegedly hosted the headquarters of al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization behind the attacks. The war has gone on since then, with the public growing increasingly tired of it. Public support then favored a withdrawal, but for military and logistical reasons, the government could not simply move all the US troops in Afghanistan to their home. Therefore, the government promised to eventually withdraw all troops, initially planned to do so by the end of 2014.
| Too early; the remaining US troops [https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/afghanistan-afghan-troops-struggle-to-replace-americans-at-key-bagram-air-base-2480356 left Afghanistan in June 2021.]
|-
| GNU/Linux dominant OS
| An operating system, or OS, is the software that forms the structure in which applications on you computer function. Some typical OSs include Mac OS X, Windows 10, and Linux. The first two of those three are commercial products, sold as a copy by a company. The last is an open-source OS, one that anyone can download and modify free. Typically, open-source software is used by a small number of socially conscious people.
| False, although Linux-based Android dominated phones since 2011.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2015
| New Horizon reaches Pluto
| The New Horizon spacecraft is a U.S. space mission designed to go to Pluto and take photographs, collect samples, etc.
| True. [http://pluto.jhuapl.edu It reached Pluto on July 14, 2015].
|-
| Healthcare law causes hyperinflation
| The National Inflation Association warned that the [http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/healthcare-bill-to-cause-us-hyperinflation-by-2015-88711032.html healthcare bill would cause U.S. hyperinflation by 2015.]
| False.
|-
| Millennium development goals achieved
| {{w|Millennium Development Goals}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2016
| Baby boomers begin turning 65
| {{w|Baby boomers}} are individuals conceived in the years following World War Two, roughly defined as those born from 1946-1959. This isn't so much a prediction as basic math; if you were born in 1946, you turned 65 in 2011.
| True.
|-
| Android takes 38%/45% of market share
| {{w|Android (operating system)|Android}} is a popular operating system for smartphones and tablets, created by Google. Market share is the percentage of all devices that use the product, in this case the Android operating system. These entries together are humorous because they cannot both happen at the same time.
| Too late; passed these marks in 2010. {{w|Android OS}}'s [http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp market share was already 84.4% as of the third quarter of 2014,] showing that both estimates were overly conservative.
|-
| Windows phone overtakes iOS
| {{w|iOS}} is the operating system used by Apple iPhones. At the time of the comic, Apple's mobile OS is much more popular than Microsoft's. The article Randall found predicts that the tables will turn. However, Windows Phone was discontinued in 2017, with support for the last version (Windows Phone 10) ending on December 10, 2019.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2017
| China completes lunar mission
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
| False. The first sample-return mission was completed in November 2020.
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| The first of many predictions about the United States {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} trust fund program, all predicting its decline due to a variety of factors.
| False.
|-
| US budget balanced
| The {{w|United States federal budget}} outlines how much the US government spends on what in a given fiscal year. The budget is not required to be balanced, and so often more money is spent than is earned in revenue, causing the national debt to rise.
| False. Still pretty negative.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The increasing popularity of internet media and mobile devices has caused a steady decline in the popularity of print media.
| False. Though newspapers are in decline, they are certainly not obsolete as of 2017, or 2021, for that matter.
|-
| Cosmetic surgery doubles
| {{w|Cosmetic Surgery}}
| False. According to the ASPS (American Society of Plastic Surgeons), 1.6 million cosmetic surgeries were performed in 2011, while 1.8 million were performed in 2017, an increase of only 0.2 million.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2018
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still false.
|-
| Jesus returns to Earth
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the second coming, the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible itself says that "no man can know the date". Several predicted dates have come and gone.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2019
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still false.
|-
| Every baby has genes mapped at birth
| {{w|Gene Mapping}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2020
| Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
| Scientists estimate that more than half of the {{w|fossil fuels}} in existence have already been found and that fossil fuel production will begin to decline due to the scarcity, causing prices to increase. At the same time, improvements in {{w|Solar Power|solar technology}} are causing the prices for solar energy to steadily decrease.
| True, though only in {{w|Cost of electricity by source#Recent_global_studies|certain cases}}.
|-
| Keyboards and mice become obsolete
| {{w|Computer input device|Computer input devices}} are beginning to adopt other inputs, such as voice commands, touch screens, and eye tracking. While the use of touch screens in particular is gaining widespread use, as of 2014 none has come close to making keyboards and mice obsolete. None of them allow text input that are as fast as a keyboard, and none are suitable for writing program code.
| False. While touchscreen devices ''are'' increasingly common, both laptop and desktop computers are still very much in use. Mice continue to be used alongside touchscreens and trackpads, and keyboards remain the dominant method of writing on computers.
|-
| New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
| A {{w|Tappan_Zee_Bridge#Replacement_bridge|replacement bridge}} was announced in 2008.
| Too late; completed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2021
| US debt reaches 97% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
| Too late; reached in 2011.
|-
| US unemployment falls to 2.8%
| {{w|Unemployment in the United States}}
| False: because of the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment has actually ''increased''.
|-
| Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
| A {{w|caliphate}} is a form of {{w|Islam|Islamic}} political-religious leadership, centred around a Caliph, or successor to the prophet {{w|Muhammad}}. This may be foreshadowing of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which has as its goal the creation of a restored caliphate.
| False.
|-
| Lake Mead evaporates
| Formed by the {{w|Hoover Dam}} on the {{w|Colorado River}}, {{w|Lake Mead}} is the largest reservoir in the United States (measured by maximum capacity). It hasn't reached its capacity since 1983, due to drought and increased demand for water. This is linked to {{w|global warming}}.
| False, although water levels continue to fall.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2022
| Kilimanjaro snow-free
| At 5,895 metres, {{w|Kilimanjaro}} is the highest mountain in {{w|Africa}}, and the highest free-standing mountain in the world. Around 85% of its ice cover disappeared between 1912 and 2011, and it continues to recede.
|
|-
| HTML 5 finished
| The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) began work on {{w|HTML 5}} in 2004.
| Too late; 5.0 specification released in 2014, but incremental updates continue.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| This is the second time this prediction has appeared.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2023
| Jesus returns to Earth (again)
| Again.
|
|-
| US debt passes 100% of GDP
| This references the common fear that {{w|US Debt}} will exceed GDP, possibly causing {{w|Economic bubble|economic turmoil}}.
| Too late; reached in 2012.
|-
| All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
| Likely due to a combination of wildfire and {{w|deforestation}}.
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2024
| Atlantis begins to reappear
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea.
|
|-
| Orangutans extinct in wild
| {{w|Orangutan|Orangutans}} are a species of great ape, currently classed as an {{w|endangered species}}, and found only in the {{w|Rainforest|rainforests}} of {{w|Borneo}} and {{w|Sumatra}}.
|
|-
| China lands men and women on the moon
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
| False; the Chinese government planned a manned mission to the moon for the 2030s.
|-
| NASA sets up permanent moon base
| There has been a lot of hype recently about finally returning to the moon, vis-a-vis Orion.
|
|-
| Female professionals pass males in pay
| There are two possible explanations for this entry: Either it's fear-mongering from misogynists or, more probably, an erroneous extrapolation from the current rate at which female incomes are catching up to male incomes.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2025
| World population reaches 8 billion
| Given current rates, it seems unlikely it will take this long to hit 8 billion, but advances in birth control options and especially their availability in developing nations may slow the current rate considerably.
|
|-
| Two billion people face water shortages
| http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/28-01-2008/103693-water_crisis-0/
|
|-
| 62 MPG cars introduced
| 62 miles per gallon, ~3.8 L/100km. 62 MPG is a very good mileage rate at today's standard, even though [http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=5231050&page=1 some cars can be driven carefully so as to attain over 100 MPG].
|
|-
| US power fades
| http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-us-power-will-fade-by-2025/
| Hard to know what the precise metric for this would be.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2026
| Atlantis emerges completely
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. It seems that it has taken 2 years for it to emerge completely.
|
|-
| Rock Bands die out
| https://bestbands.wordpress.com/2009/01/25/rock-bands-to-die-out-by-2026/
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/business/27view.html It’s 2026, and the Debt Is Due.]
|
|-
| Car accidents cease
| Presumably, cars will be fully automated and able to pilot themselves at this point and will have fail-safes that prevent collisions currently attributed to user error. Car accidents will always be possible, however, due to mechanical and electrical failures.
|
|-
| West coast falls into ocean
| Most likely due to {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|a significant seismic event}}.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2027
| Japan introduces new fastest Maglev train
| Japan's railway systems are famous for their "bullet trains", or {{w|Shinkansen}}. The Chūō Shinkansen is planned to be opened in this year.
|
|-
| Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony is established
| http://totse.mattfast1.com/en/technology/space_astronomy_nasa/moonmars.html
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2028
| Tobacco outlawed
| Tobacco products (cigarettes and chewing tobacco) have become more and more taboo in modern culture, with most public places and private businesses forbidding their use indoors and near places children congregate.
|
|-
| 40% of coral reefs gone
| Many factors have been attributed to the decline of {{w|Coral_reef#Threats|coral reefs}}, including mining, over fishing, and rising ocean tempteratures.
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2029
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| Computers pass the Turing test
| It is no coincidence that 2029 is the timeline for Terminator Movies.
| Some computer programs already clear the Turing Test about 30% of the time.
|-
| Aging reversed
| [https://www.zdnet.com/article/manhattan-beach-project-to-reverse-aging-by-2029/ Manhattan Beach Project to reverse aging by 2029]
|
|-
| Wikipedia reaches 30 million articles
|
| As of 1 November 2021, Wikipedia has over [https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/List_of_Wikipedias#Grand_Total 57.6 million total articles], if all languages are included. The source being cited may have meant the English language Wikipedia, which has only {{w|Special:Statistics|6.4 million articles}}.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2030
| Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
| WWF press release - [http://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/climate-change-speeds-up-amazon-s-destruction-says-wwf Climate Change Speeds Up Amazon’s Destruction] referring to a report on the [http://assets.panda.org/downloads/amazonas_eng_04_12b_web.pdf Amazon's vicious cycles].
|
|-
| Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
| From the [http://www.cancer.org/myacs/newengland/global-cancer-burden-to-double-by-2030 Global Cancer Burden to Nearly Double by 2030] article about the article from page 37 of [http://www.cancer.org/research/cancerfactsfigures/globalcancerfactsfigures/global-facts-figures-2nd-ed Global Cancer Facts & Figures 2nd edition].
|
|-
| Arctic ice-free in summer
| http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-video-ap.html
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2031
| Computers controlled by thought
| http://www.gizmag.com/future-mobile-technology/17554/
| As of 2017, this is {{w|Brain–computer interface|already possible}}, but still not used in any mass available devices as of 2021.
|-
| Realtors replaced by technology
| http://agbeat.com/editorials/will-realtors-be-replaced-by-technology-by-the-year-2031/
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| http://crfb.org/blogs/cbo-95-percent-confident-social-security-trust-fund-runs-out-25-years
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2032
| "Big One" hits San Francisco
| {{w|San Franscisco}} is located on the {{w|San Andreas Fault}}, which is predicted to produce a magnitude 7+ earthquake in the 'near future'. This event is referred to as {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|"The Big One"}}.
|
|-
| US elects first married lesbian President
| http://4chandata.org/g/In-what-major-ways-do-you-think-the-world-of-2032-will-be-different-from-that-of-today-a20155
|
|-
| Entire world converted to Christianity
| http://www.goddiscussion.com/38920/christian-domininionsts-to-take-over-the-world-by-2032/
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2033
| Kilimanjaro ice disappears
| http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/02/idUSL2210825
|
|-
| India becomes superpower
| https://www.facebook.com/pages/India-A-SuperPower-by-2033/151177191568098
|
|-
| Europe reaches Mars
| [http://www.spacedaily.com/news/esa-general-03zb.html Specifically, a manned European mission]. ESA's {{w|Mars Express}} probe landed in 2003.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2034
| US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
| [http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/27/us-diabetes-usa-costs-idUSTRE5AQ0C220091127 U.S. diabetes cases to double, costs triple by 2034]
|
|-
| US builds autonomous robot army
| The concept of robots built for military service is another common element of science fiction stories. [http://www.aos-inc.com/index.php/medialias/press-releases?id=112 Unmanned Systems] article, about the [http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA522247 2009-2034 Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap] publication ([http://www.amazon.com/2009-Unmanned-Integrated-Aircraft-Technologies-ebook/dp/B0047743A0 details at Amazon]).
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2035
| 80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
| From fact sheet on Obama's [http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/fact-sheet-state-union-president-obamas-plan-win-future State of the Union.]
|
|-
| Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
| From an IPCC report on [https://web.archive.org/web/20100116132657/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html The Himalayan glaciers] that has been analysed in quite some depth. See for example detailed article on an [http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/02/anatomy-of-ipccs-himalayan-glacier-year-2035-mess/ anatomy of IPCC’s mistake].
|
|-
| Arctic sea lane opens
| [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/730ef8fe-27e1-11e0-8abc-00144feab49a.html#axzz3OBgEHYNY Arctic sea lane could open by 2035]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2036
| 80% of US has access to high-speed rail
| [http://www.wnyc.org/story/284946-obama-80-percent-of-americans-should-have-access-to-high-speed-rail-by-2036/ Obama: 80 Percent of Americans Should Have Access to High Speed Rail By 2036]
|
|-
| Asteroid Apophis misses/hits Earth
| 99942 Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2037
| Arctic ice-free in September
| {{w|Arctic sea ice decline}}
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2038
| 32-bit timestamps roll over, causing Y2K-level chaos
| On 03:14:07 UTC on 19 January 2038, the value of time_t rolls over, that is it will return to zero. time_t is a computing standard measurement of time; it is a count of the number of seconds since 00:00:00 UTC on 1 January 1970. time_t is used by most computer systems to store date and time information. It is recommended that new software should convert to a 64 bit time_t; indeed, most operating systems designed to run on 64-bit hardware already use signed 64-bit time_t integers. This would give an epoch of 15:30:08 UTC on 4 December 292,277,026,596 (292 billion years away). Of course, legacy systems may not be upgradable so action taken now should prevent this becoming a problem closer to 2038...
|
|-
| "Big One" hits California
| [http://www.presstelegram.com/technology/20080414/the-big-one-likely-to-hit-by-2038 `The big one' likely to hit by 2038]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2039
| US population hits 400 Million
| [http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2008/us400million.aspx U.S. Population Projected to Hit 400 Million in 2039]
|
|-
| Severe heat waves become commonplace
| [http://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/july/extreme-heat-study-070810.html Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds]
|
|-
| Scientology becomes majority religion in US
| [http://home.snafu.de/tilman/2039.html Essay: Scientology in the year 2039]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2040
| Arctic summers ice-free
| [http://www.livescience.com/9419-arctic-summer-ice-free-2040.html Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2040]
|
|-
| Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
| [http://www.computerworld.com/article/2528330/app-development/nanotech-could-make-humans-immortal-by-2040--futurist-says.html Nanotech could make humans immortal by 2040, futurist says]
|
|-
| 2041
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2043
| World population passes 9 Billion
| {{w|Population growth}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2044
| Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
| Premise of the movie [http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1363468/ Zenith] - further details are in the [http://www.filmjournal.com/filmjournal/content_display/esearch/e3i25130cd57f1590bda4527c098ac85b01 film review for Zenith.]
|
|-
| Childhood obesity reaches 100%
| [http://www.ivanhoe.com/channels/p_channelstory.cfm?storyid=11414 100-Percent Childhood Obesity Predicted by 2044]
|
|-
| 2045
| Humans and machines merge
| {{w|Ray Kurzweil}} predicts of a 'singularity' which will lead to a race of super intelligent beings.
|
|-
| 2046
| World's natural resources depleted
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2047
| World ruled by banks and corporations
| [http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Schlock-2047-RM-Krakoff-ebook/dp/B0039IT37Q Future Schlock - the story of a world turned upside down in 2047]
|
|-
| Tobacco industry fails
| [http://www.news.wisc.edu/16857 Experts: Big Tobacco dead by 2047, possibly sooner]
|
|-
| US begins using autonomous attack drones
| [http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/aug/22/us-air-force-drones-pilots-afghanistan US Air Force prepares drones to end era of fighter pilots]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2048
| Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
| WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ unsustainable fishing.]
|
|-
| Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
| [http://future.wikia.com/wiki/RyansWorld:_Bathing_Suits_of_the_Future RyansWorld: Bathing Suits of the Future]
|
|-
| Entire US population overweight
| [https://web.archive.org/web/20090321075605/http://thestatsblog.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/scientists-say-thin-people-face-extinction-in-united-states-everyone-will-be-overweight-by-2048-%E2%80%93-and-less-smart Scientists Say Thin People Face Extinction in United States: Everyone Will Be Overweight by 2048 – And Less Smart (archive)]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2049
| $1,000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
| [http://www.americanbar.org/content/newsletter/publications/technology_e_report_home/2007_may_technotes.html TechNotes: Trends in Technology]
|
|-
| Singularity occurs
| [http://www.prismdecision.com/the-singularity-is-near The Singularity Is Near]
|
|-
| Fishing industry collapses
| This tends to happen when your food-stock is extinct{{citation needed}} - see WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ unsustainable fishing.]
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2050
| 80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
| [http://infochangeindia.org/population/books-a-reports/80-of-world-population-will-soon-be-in-urban-areas.html 80% of world population will soon be in urban areas]
|
|-
| China controls space
| [https://books.google.com/books?id=op851Uf99LQC&dq=China+controls+space+2050&source=gbs_navlinks_s Space Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050]
|
|-
| Sex with robots possible
| [http://www.livescience.com/1951-forecast-sex-marriage-robots-2050.html Forecast: Sex and Marriage with Robots by 2050]
|
|-
| Cars banned from European cities
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/8411336/EU-to-ban-cars-from-cities-by-2050.html EU to ban cars from cities by 2050]
|
|-
| One million species extinct from climate change
| [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/01/0107_040107_extinction.html By 2050 Warming to Doom Million Species, Study Says]
|
|-
| 2051
| Atmosphere escapes into space
| [http://www.thehulltruth.com/boating-outdoor-photos/255705-have-you-ever-seen-fallstreak-hole.html Conspiracy theory] relating to {{w|Fallstreak hole}} or hole punch clouds.
|
|-
| 2052
| Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2053
| US budget balanced
| [http://crfb.org/blogs/omb-releases-long-term-projections-fy2015-budget-proposal OMB releases long-term projections for the FY2015 budget proposal]
|
|-
| Majority of Americans in prison
| [http://articles.philly.com/1992-06-14/news/26032105_1_prison-officials-prison-time-prison-commissioners 'Beyond Bricks And Bars' As Jails Overflow, The Lock-'em-up Credo Is Drawing Unlikely Criticism - From Prison Officials Themselves]
|
|-
| Cars driven by dogs
|
| This has [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWAK0J8Uhzk already occurred] in 2012! However, it is not as widespread as the prediction may be implying.
|-
| 2054
| Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
| [http://www.albionmonitor.com/0403a/earth2054.html Hunger Could Be 'Unimaginable' Global Problem By 2054]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2055
| Atmospheric CO2 doubled
| [http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/flash_intro.php Carbon Mitigation Initiative: Stabilization Wedges]
|
|-
| Oil runs out
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
| [http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/environment/5-valuable-metals-that-could-vanish-by-2055 5 Valuable Metals That Could Vanish by 2055]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2056
| RFID-tagged driverless cars
| [http://www.zdnet.com/article/rfid-tagged-driverless-cars-on-roads-by-2056/ RFID-tagged driverless cars on roads by 2056]
|
|-
| Robots given same rights as humans
| [http://www.cc.gatech.edu/news/robots-given-same-rights-humans-2056 Robots Given Same Rights As Humans By 2056]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2057
| 150 Japanese settlers on Mars
| [http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/9011051292/will-japan-colonize-mars Will Japan colonize Mars?]
|
|-
| Colorado River runs dry
| [http://news.agu.org/press-release/colorado-river-reservoirs-could-bottom-out-from-warming-business-as-usual/ Colorado River Reservoirs Could Bottom Out From Warming]
|
|-
| 2058
| Smoking ends in New Zealand
| [http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10698966 Smoking to die out in NZ by 2058]
|
|-
| 2059
| Humans have domesticated robots
| [http://diehardempiricist.blogspot.co.nz/2012/05/6-may-2011-virtual-necking-demography.html Virtual necking, demography, and robots]
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2060
| Human race lives in peace
| [http://www.arasfoundation.org/vision.html ARAS vision/mission]
|
|-
| Extreme droughts across much of Earth
| [http://wdas.cosmosmagazine.com/news/extreme-drought-across-most-earth-30-years/ Extreme drought across most of Earth by 2060]
|
|-
| Global temperature rise reaches 4 °C
| {{w|Avoiding dangerous climate change}}
|
|-
| Oil runs out again
| [http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/01/oil-may-run-out-by-2060-hsbc/?__lsa=98a7-5c61 Oil may run out by 2060: HSBC]
|
|-
| 2061
| Halley's comet returns
| Halley's comet returns to the inner solar system (the vicinity of earth and the sun) every 75.3 years. The last time it was near earth was in 1985-1986. When it next returns, its closest approach to the sun will occur on [http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi 28 July 2061.]
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2062
| Uganda hosts World Cup
| [http://shillingscents.blogspot.co.nz/2010/07/uganda-to-host-world-cup-in-2062.html Uganda to host world cup in 2062]
|
|-
| The Jetsons
| {{w|The Jetsons}} was an animated science fiction sitcom that first aired in 1962. The show was set in the year 2062.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2063
| First human clones reach adulthood
| [http://au.ign.com/articles/2004/04/28/the-fall-last-days-of-gaia-diary-2 The Fall - Last Days of Gaia Diary #2]
|
|-
| Population of Moon reaches 100,000
| Reading Eagle newspaper article from July 17, 1963 - [http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1955&dat=19630717&id=PhgrAAAAIBAJ&sjid=B50FAAAAIBAJ&pg=4055,6599008 Moon Population of 100,000 Is Predicted for 2063] and [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Population of Mars reaches 10,000
| [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Spacecraft exceed speed of light
| Physics as currently understood states that it is impossible to exceed the speed of light. A monumental shift in our physics would have had to have occurred for this to come true. This is a reference to the 8th Star Trek feature Film: "Star Trek: First Contact" where Zefram Cochrane performs the first human Warp Flight on April 5, 2063.
|
|-
| 2064
| Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
| [http://www.cleanhouston.org/air/features/hazyfuture.htm State plan guarantees a hazy future for Texas’ wilderness areas]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2065
| Last coral reefs die out
| From an [http://www.edgeofexistence.org/coral_reef_conservation/coral_reef_video.php article about a video called Reefs on the Edge] set in 2065 where a 15-year-old girl tells her grandfather's stories of coral reefs, and their demise.
|
|-
| Chernobyl cleanup complete
| [http://rt.com/politics/chernobyl-clean-in-55-years-time/ Chernobyl clean in 55 years time?]
|
|-
| 2066
| Cyprus achieves its goal
| This is from some [http://www.cyprus-forum.com/cyprus33608-110.html#p665612 forum posts on the decendants of Cypriots] that lends support to the autonomy of Cyprus from Greek or Turkey.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2067
| Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
| The article at [http://blogs.lib.unc.edu/ncm/index.php/2013/11/15/artifact-of-the-month-slide-rule-1916/ Artifact of the Month: Slide rule, 1916] includes information from the International Slide Rule Museum that "in 1967, Keuffel & Esser Co. commissioned a study of the future, predicting that Americans in 2067 would live in domed cities and watch 3D television."
|
|-
| Redheads go extinct
| [http://science.howstuffworks.com/life/genetic/redhead-extinction.htm Are redheads going extinct?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2068
| Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
| [http://www.theozonehole.com/recovery.htm NASA Study Finds Clock Ticking Slower On Ozone Hole Recovery]
|
|-
| Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
| [http://myth-one.com/chapter_8.htm The Resurrections -- What Really Happens]
|
|-
| Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
| [http://thedailybanter.com/2013/01/alex-jones-the-government-is-trying-to-make-more-gay-people/ Alex Jones talks about chemicals that make people gay]
|
|-
| 2069
| Public masturbation legalized
| [http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/UnNews:It's_still_not_okay_to_Pull_Your_Penis_out_in_Public It's still not okay to Pull Your Penis out in Public]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2070
| World population peaks
| [http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1108-global-population-to-peak-in-2070.html Global population to peak in 2070]
|
|-
| City-scale flooding disasters
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthnews/3317033/City-scale-flooding-disasters-predicted-by-2070.html City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070]
|
|-
| 60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
| [http://www.ssisolarenergy.com/solar-alternative-energy/ What Is Alternative Energy All About?]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2071
| Europe's temperatures rise by 3 °C
| [http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/climate-energy/climate-change-adaptation/adaptation-tools/project-catalog/peseta-projection-of-economic-impacts-of-climate Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis]
|
|-
| World summer temperatures rise by 5 °C
| [http://www.climateadaptation.eu/denmark/climate-change/ See "Air temperature changes in the 21st century"]
|
|-
| 2072
| US retirement age is set to 75
| [http://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/articles/2012/06/11/how-high-will-the-retirement-age-go Up to 70-80 years]
|
|-
| 2073
| Oceans do not rise one foot
| [http://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm More like 2 feet]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2074
| Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
| [http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-8848188.html UK to have 1 million centenarians by 2074]
|
|-
| Supertyphoons hit Japan
| [http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/09/08/national/super-typhoons-in-store-as-seas-warm/ Super typhoons in store as seas warm]
|
|-
| 2075
| US retirement age set to 69
| [http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2010/1112/Retirement-age-at-69-Deficit-plan-hits-Social-Security Retirement age at 69? Deficit plan hits Social Security]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2076
| Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
| [https://doclib.uhasselt.be/dspace/bitstream/1942/871/1/yitzhaki373.PDF Multiple Authorship in Biochemistry and Other Fields] (PDF)
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2078
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The same prediction was made for 2017 and 2022. Even when most prognosticators agree that something will happen, there can still be much disagreement about ''when'' it will happen.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2079
| US debt reaches 716% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
| [http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2011/feb/climate-change-causing-demise-lodgepole-pine-western-north-america Climate change causing demise of lodgepole pine in western North America]
|
|-
| Floods commonplace
| [http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090108101627.htm Floods To Become Commonplace By 2080]
|
|-
| Religion marginalized
| http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-11347073
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2080
| Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
| [http://crfb.org/sites/default/files/our_debt_problems_are_far_from_solved_updated_2.pdf Our debt problems are far from solved] (PDF)
|
|-
| UK population doubles
| [http://forums.canadiancontent.net/international-politics/69603-britains-population-hit-110-million.html Britain's population to hit 110 million]
|
|-
| 2082
| World population declines to one billion
| [http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html Population: The Elephant in the Room]
|
|-
| 2084
| Robot policemen introduced
| [http://www.thetechherald.com/articles/Robotic-cops-set-to-stamp-out-crime-by-2084 Robotic cops set to stamp out crime by 2084]
|
|-
| 2085
| US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
| [http://moneybob.com/2010/06/28/paul-krugman-throws-in-towel-says-were-headed-for-another-depression/ Paul Krugman Throws In Towel, Says We’re Headed For Another Depression]
|
|-
| 2088
| Japan becomes all-robot country
| [http://www.theretributioners.tv/erics-blog/2009/11/25/-japan-to-become-all-robot-country-by-2088.html Japan To Become All Robot Country By 2088]
|
|-
| 2089
| World halts fossil fuel use
| {{w|Fossil Fuels}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2090
| Global warming hits 7 °C
| [http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/models-warn-of-7c-dangerous-climate-change-by-2090.html Models warn of 7C dangerous climate change by 2090]. Climate change, especially global warming, is a [[:Category:Climate change|recurring theme]] in xkcd.
|
|-
| Global warming hits 4 °C
| Summarized [http://www.global-warming-forecasts.com/2090-climate-change-global-warming-2090.php here]. In reference to Andy Bowers, “Analysis: Scientists say global warming could affect California's drinking water supply,” NPR All Things Considered, June 22, 2001
|
|-
| rowspan="11"| 2100
| Global warming around 5-7 °C
| [http://grist.org/article/bau-fd/ Hadley Center study warns of ‘catastrophic’ 5-7°C warming by 2100 on current emissions path]
|
|-
| Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
| {{w|Future sea level}}
|
|-
| Joshua trees nearly extinct
| [http://news.discovery.com/earth/joshua-trees-climate-change-110325.htm Joshua Trees Nearly Wiped Out by 2100?]
|
|-
| Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
| [http://www.pnas.org/content/107/2/576 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100]
|
|-
| Germany tropical
| [http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/climate-change-predictions-a-tropical-germany-by-2100-a-463378.html Climate Change Predictions: A Tropical Germany by 2100?]
|
|-
| Emperor penguins extinct
| [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7851276.stm Emperor penguins face extinction]
|
|-
| Arctic permafrost thaws
| [http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/surface-permafrost-could/ Surface Permafrost Could Disappear by 2100]
|
|-
| Rising seas flood coastal cities
| [http://uanews.org/story/rising-seas-will-affect-major-us-coastal-cities-2100 Rising Seas Will Affect Major U.S. Coastal Cities by 2100]
|
|-
| Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
| [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/08/06/890970/-Massive-Loss-of-Rainforest-Species-by-2100-eKos-Earthship-Friday Massive Loss of Rainforest Species by 2100]
|
|-
| All coral reefs gone
| [http://planetsave.com/2010/10/15/coral-reefs-gone-by-2100/ Coral Reefs Gone by 2100?]
|
|-
| Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
| Each iteration of the Gillette line of safety razors has one more blade than the previous one. MadTV has also [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FAP8o5ZEo0 parodied] this. Over five years before MadTV did so, the Australian comedy group the D-Generation parodied the first two-bladed razor as the [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YleuLyCUx28 Gillette 3000] with 16 blades.
|
|-
| 2101
| WAR WAS BEGINNING
| References {{w|Zero Wing}}, a 1989 Japanese computer game set in 2101, famous for poorly translated English and the source for "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}".
|
|}
<references/>

==Transcript==

:<big>'''THE FUTURE'''</big>
:'''According to Google search results'''
:Events for each year determined by the first page of Google search results for the phrases:
:"By <year>" "In year"
:"By the year <year>" "In the year <year>"
:"Will * by the year <year>" "Will * in the year <year>"
:"In <year>, * will" "By <year>, * will"
:
:;2012
::World population reaches 7 billion
::Flying cars reach market
::Canada cuts greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels as per Kyoto
::Apocalypse occurs
:;2013
::National debt paid off through President Clinton's plans
::Microchipping of all Americans begins
::Homelessness ended in Massachusetts
::Health care reform law repealed
:;2014
::US leaves Afghanistan
::GNU/Linux becomes dominant OS
:;2015
::New Horizons reaches Pluto
::Health care law causes hyperinflation
::192 UN member nations achieve millennium development goals:
::*Extreme poverty and hunger eradicated
::*Universal primary education implemented
::*Women empowered, gender equality reached
::*Environmental stability ensured
:;2016
::Baby boomers begin turning 65
::Android takes 38% of the smartphone market
::Android takes 45% of the smartphone market
::Windows Phone overtakes iOS in smartphones
:;2017
::China completes unmanned Lunar sample-return mission
::Social Security stops running surplus
::US budget balanced
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
::Cosmetic surgery doubles
:;2018
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Jesus returns to Earth
:;2019
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Every baby has genes mapped at birth
:;2020
::Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
::Keyboards and mice become obsolete
::New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
:;2021
::US debt reaches 97% of GDP
::US unemployment falls to 2.8%
::Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
::Lake Mead evaporates
:;2022
::Kilimanjaro snow-free
::HTML 5 finished
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2023
::Jesus returns to Earth (again)
::US debt passes 100% of GDP
::All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
:;2024
::Atlantis begins to reappear
::Orangutans extinct in wild
::China lands men and women on the moon
::NASA sets up permanent moon base
::Female professionals pass males in pay
:;2025
::World population reaches 8 billion
::Two billion people face water shortages
::62 MPG cars introduced
::US power fades
:;2026
::Atlantis emerges completely
::Rock Bands die out
::US debt paid off
::Car accidents cease
::West coast falls into ocean
:;2027
::Japan introduces new fastest maglev train
::Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony established
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2028
::Tobacco outlawed
::40% of coral reefs gone
::US debt paid off
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2029
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
::Computers pass the Turing Test
::Aging reversed
::Wikipedia reaches 30 million articles
:;2030
::Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
::Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
::Arctic ice-free in summer
:;2031
::Computers controlled by thought
::Realtors replaced by technology
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2032
::"Big One" hits San Francisco
::US elects first married lesbian president
::Entire world converted to Christianity
:;2033
::Kilimanjaro ice disappears
::India becomes superpower
::Europe reaches Mars
:;2034
::US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
::US builds autonomous robot army
:;2035
::80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
::Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
::Arctic sea lane opens
:;2036
::80% of US has access to high-speed rail
::Asteroid Apophis hits/misses Earth
:;2037
::Arctic ice-free in September
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2038
::32-bit timestamps role over, causing Y2K-level chaos
::"Big One" hits California
:;2039
::US population hits 400 million
::Severe heat waves become commonplace
::Scientology becomes majority religion in US
:;2040
::Arctic summers ice-free
::Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
:;2041
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2042
:;2043
::World population passes 9 billion
:;2044
::Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
::Childhood obesity reaches 100%
:;2045
::Humans and machines merge
:;2046
::World's natural resources depleted
:;2047
::World ruled by banks and corporations
::Tobacco industry fails
::US begins using autonomous attack drones
:;2048
::Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
::Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
::Entire US population overweight
:;2049
::$1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
::Singularity occurs
::Fishing industry collapses
:;2050
::80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
::China controls space
::Sex with robots possible
::Cars banned from European cities
::One million species extinct from climate change
:;2051
::Atmosphere escapes into space
:;2052
::Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
:;2053
::US budget balanced
::Majority of Americans in prison
::Cars driven by dogs
:;2054
::Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
:;2055
::Atmospheric CO2 doubled
::Oil runs out
::Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
:;2056
::RFID-tagged driverless cars
::Robots given same rights as humans
:;2057
::150 Japanese settlers on Mars
::Colorado River runs dry
:;2058
::Smoking ends in New Zealand
:;2059
::Humans have domesticated robots
:;2060
::Human race lives in peace
::Extreme droughts across much of Earth
::Global temperature rise reaches 4°C
::Oil runs out again
:;2061
::Halley's comet returns
:;2062
::Uganda hosts World Cup
::The Jetsons
:;2063
::First human clones reach adulthood
::Population of Moon reaches 100,000
::Population of Mars reaches 10,000
::Spacecraft exceed speed of light
:;2064
::Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
:;2065
::Last coral reefs die out
::Chernobyl cleanup complete
:;2066
::Cyprus achieves its goal
:;2067
::Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
::Redheads go extinct
:;2068
::Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
::Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
::Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
:;2069
::Public masturbation legalized
:;2070
::World population peaks
::City-scale flooding disasters
::60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
:;2071
::Europe's temperatures rise by 3°C
::World summer temperatures rise by 5°C
:;2072
::US retirement age is set to 75
:;2073
::Oceans do not rise one foot
:;2074
::Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
::Supertyphoons hit Japan
:;2075
::US retirement age set to 69
:;2076
::Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2077
:;2078
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2079
::US debt reaches 716% of GDP
::Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
::Floods commonplace
::Religion marginalized
:;2080
::Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
::UK population doubles
:;2081
:;2082
::World population declines to one billion
:;2083
:;2084
::Robot policemen introduced
:;2085
::US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
:;2086
:;2087
:;2088
::Japan becomes all-robot country
:;2089
::World halts fossil fuel use
:;2090
::Global warming hits 7°C
::Global warming hits 4°C
:;2091
:;2092
:;2093
:;2094
:;2095
:;2096
:;2097
:;2098
:;2099
:;2100
::Global warming around 5-7°C
::Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
::Joshua trees nearly extinct
::Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
::Germany tropical
::Emperor penguins extinct
::Arctic permafrost thaws
::Rising seas flood coastal cities
::Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
::All coral reefs gone
::Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
:;2101
::WAR WAS BEGINNING

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Large drawings]]
[[Category:Timelines]]
[[Category:Google Search]]
[[Category:Climate change]]
[[Category:Singularity]]
[[Category:Renewable energy]]
[[Category:Smartphones]]
[[Category:Wikipedia]]

2548: Awful People

2021-11-30T10:43:08Z

141.101.77.126:

{{comic
| number = 2548
| date = November 29, 2021
| title = Awful People
| image = awful_people.png
| titletext = Hm, this burger place has a couple of good reviews, but LakeSlayer7 says he got food poisoning there and everyone should try this other place down by the lake instead.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a NORMAL PEER (DEFINITELY NOT A TROLL BOT, TRUST ME, I PROMISE) - Please slay this comment when editing this lake. Do NOT try that burger place with the good reviews.}}

Megan and Cueball are having a conversation about social media. Megan relates a negative comment she got from a stranger about her taste in movies. The twist is that it turns out the person criticizing her was a murderer. Although this does not inherently negate his taste in movies, it does free Megan from the burden of weighing his opinions equally to her own.{{citation needed}}

The title-text mentions the “LakeSlayer7” which is clearly a reference to the "Lake Slayer" in the comic. They mention that a burger joint in town is unsatisfactory, and that the reader should come to a place “by the lake” instead, which might be (and probably is) a plot to lure people to the lake and to be killed.

In many "[[918: Google+|social]]" and "[[997: Wait Wait|news]]" sites there is a tendency to surface [[258: Conspiracy Theories|negative content]]. This can be [[1111: Premiere|editorial intent]], [[2237: AI Hiring Algorithm|naive algorithms]], or [[1390: Research Ethics|both]], attempting to induce rage to drive "engagement". "Review" sites can exhibit a [[1098: Star Ratings|bias]] in either direction, with minutiae [[937: TornadoGuard|burying]] valid feedback.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball and Megan are having a conversation while walking.]
:Cueball: The Internet makes it easy to be a jerk and forget the person we're talking to is a human.
:Megan: Yeah...
:Megan: But it also makes us see messages from awful people and assume they come from normal peers.

:[Closeup on Megan. Above Megan is a picture of a "reply" post from a man with sunglasses. The post has a title above it.]
:Megan: Recently I got a mean reply from a stranger. It was minor but it really got to me.
:Post title: Replies to "Favorite Movie"
:Post: Every group has one person who likes that movie, and it's the friend they all secretly hate.

:[Blondie as a news anchor behind a desk. There is a picture of the man with sunglasses with "Arrested" under his name. His picture is next to a picture of a house with "Breaking" above it. Megan's dialogue appears above the picture, but she herself is not shown in this panel.]
:Megan: Then the next week I saw that guy on the news. He was an actual murderer!

:[Megan and Cueball standing next to each other.]
:Megan: I can't believe I spent a week stressed out that my taste in movies wasn't shared by the East Valley Strangler.
:Cueball: Yeah, at ''least'' wait for a second opinion from the Lake Slayer.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Blondie]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Social networking]]

2548: Awful People

2021-11-30T10:38:26Z

141.101.77.126:

{{comic
| number = 2548
| date = November 29, 2021
| title = Awful People
| image = awful_people.png
| titletext = Hm, this burger place has a couple of good reviews, but LakeSlayer7 says he got food poisoning there and everyone should try this other place down by the lake instead.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a NORMAL PEER (DEFINITELY NOT A TROLL BOT, TRUST ME, I PROMISE) - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT try that other place down by the lake.}}

Megan and Cueball are having a conversation about social media. Megan relates a negative comment she got from a stranger about her taste in movies. The twist is that it turns out the person criticizing her was a murderer. Although this does not inherently negate his taste in movies, it does free Megan from the burden of weighing his opinions equally to her own.{{citation needed}}

The title-text mentions the “LakeSlayer7” which is clearly a reference to the "Lake Slayer" in the comic. They mention that a burger joint in town is unsatisfactory, and that the reader should come to a place “by the lake” instead, which might be (and probably is) a plot to lure people to the lake and to be killed.

In many "[[918: Google+|social]]" and "[[997: Wait Wait|news]]" sites there is a tendency to surface [[258: Conspiracy Theories|negative content]]. This can be [[1111: Premiere|editorial intent]], [[2237: AI Hiring Algorithm|naive algorithms]], or [[1390: Research Ethics|both]], attempting to induce rage to drive "engagement". "Review" sites can exhibit a [[1098: Star Ratings|bias]] in either direction, with minutiae [[937: TornadoGuard|burying]] valid feedback.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball and Megan are having a conversation while walking.]
:Cueball: The Internet makes it easy to be a jerk and forget the person we're talking to is a human.
:Megan: Yeah...
:Megan: But it also makes us see messages from awful people and assume they come from normal peers.

:[Closeup on Megan. Above Megan is a picture of a "reply" post from a man with sunglasses. The post has a title above it.]
:Megan: Recently I got a mean reply from a stranger. It was minor but it really got to me.
:Post title: Replies to "Favorite Movie"
:Post: Every group has one person who likes that movie, and it's the friend they all secretly hate.

:[Blondie as a news anchor behind a desk. There is a picture of the man with sunglasses with "Arrested" under his name. His picture is next to a picture of a house with "Breaking" above it. Megan's dialogue appears above the picture, but she herself is not shown in this panel.]
:Megan: Then the next week I saw that guy on the news. He was an actual murderer!

:[Megan and Cueball standing next to each other.]
:Megan: I can't believe I spent a week stressed out that my taste in movies wasn't shared by the East Valley Strangler.
:Cueball: Yeah, at ''least'' wait for a second opinion from the Lake Slayer.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Blondie]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Social networking]]

2547: Siren

2021-11-29T07:20:39Z

141.101.77.126:

{{comic
| number = 2547
| date = November 26, 2021
| title = Siren
| image = siren.png
| titletext = Directions from CITY OF TROY to ITHACA / Total time: 10y 54d 14h 25m / Warning: Route crosses an international border / route includes capture by the goddess Calypso / route includes a ferry
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by THE ODDYSSEY'S TITULAR JOHN ODDYSSEY - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

{{w|Odysseus}} is the hero of the Greek epic ''{{w|Odyssey}}'' by {{w|Homer}}. This is a poem that relates the journey of Odysseus back home to his homeland from the newly defeated Troy, and how he inadvertently angered Poseidon thus causing the journey to take 10 years.

In the story, now widely translated and adapted for modern audiences,{{Citation needed}} {{w|Circe}} warns Odysseus of the {{w|siren (mythology)|Sirens}}, who sing beautiful songs that lure sailors towards their shores, just to doom the boats to sink upon the jagged rocks surrounding their islands. In Odysseus's own case, the Sirens even claim to be able to "[http://classics.mit.edu/Homer/odyssey.12.xii.html tell you everything that is going to happen over the whole world]"; at this point, Odysseus has been away from home for many years and has no idea if his wife and son remember him, so the temptation to stay and listen (and thus find out if he will be able to return alive) is especially powerful.

This comic reframes the advice as if Odysseus was being told to ignore the incorrect instructions of a {{w|Satellite navigation device|GPS-linked routefinder}}, rather than the Sirens. Errors, omissions or out-of-date information in the databases used by such devices famously have sent drivers down roads they might never have even tried to use (guided by printed maps, road-signs or even past experience) without the alluring voice of the 'infallible' dashboard device leading them through too-narrow lanes, into rivers or even hundreds of miles completely out of their way - perhaps to a destination similarly-named to their intended one. GPSs did not exist during the time the poem was written,{{citation needed}} so this could not be the case here.

A navigation system giving wrong directions can happen, for example, due to outdated or incomplete map data. Sometimes users can file an error report with the provider of the navigation system and hope that they fix the problem in a software update. This is what Circe already did multiple times. However, the error was not fixed, so she has to resort to telling Odysseus to ignore the route.

The title text shows what the route description could have looked like, had Odysseus indeed used a modern navigation system. It includes the start and destination of the route, the estimated duration and warnings about special circumstances of the journey.

Normally, the sea voyage from the City of Troy to Ithaca should take much less than ten years. For Odysseus it took so long because of the many obstacles he had to face, so the navigation system would have some sort of clairvoyance function built in.

"Route crosses an international border" and "Route includes a ferry" are standard warnings included in a route description. The former alludes to the facts that Odysseus's voyage took him to many lands and kingdoms while the latter may allude to the fact that in Book XI of the Odyssey, Odysseus visits Hades, which is traditionally reached by a ferry across the river Styx, piloted by {{w|Charon(mythology)|Charon}} the ferryman. "Route includes capture by the goddess {{w|Calypso (mythology)|Calypso}}" is not normally something that a navigation system would warn about or could know about,{{Citation needed}} but this indeed happened to Odysseus in Homer's tale; he was kept on her island Ogygia for seven years.

The weird directions in the title text may be a reference to [[461: Google Maps]].

==Transcript==
:[Circe is speaking to Odysseus.]
:Circe: Remember, Odysseus:
:Circe: As you pass the rocks you will hear a woman calling out to you, urging you to stray from your path, but plug your ears and hold your course, for her beguiling lies will draw you to a watery grave.
:Circe: I don't know ''why'' they can't just fix it. I keep filing error reports.

:[Caption below the panel:]
:Circe was actually just telling Odysseus to ignore his GPS.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Fiction]]

36: Scientists

2021-02-10T09:50:58Z

141.101.77.126: /* Explanation */ Specify "political incorrectness".

{{comic
| number = 36
| date =  2006
| title = Scientists
| image = scientists.jpg
| titletext = A leading expert characterized the situation as 'retarded'
}}

==Explanation==
This comic plays on the type of statement that news reports often use: "in what [group of experts] are calling '[quote]'," to add more weight and credibility to their stories. In this case, [[Cueball]] is using the phrase to attempt to add gravitas to the (relatively mundane) fact that his shoes are missing and he thinks it's "pretty gay" by assigning this opinion to scientists (rather than it being, presumably, his friend's or his own opinion). The same joke is at play in the image text where a leading expert thinks the situation is "retarded."

There may be a second level to the joke: Randall was still working for NASA at the time the comic was posted, so his friends at that time would presumably include scientists and "leading experts." If his friends made fun of him for not being able to find his shoes, it would therefore be accurate to say that scientists had made those statements. However, since their being scientists is irrelevant to the legitimacy of their opinions about Randall's shoe problems, presenting their teasing as an expert opinion is humorously misleading; a similar joke is at play in [[1206: Einstein]].

The phrases "pretty gay" and "retarded" are homophobic and ableist slang for "foolish" or "contemptible," and so they are the opposite type of speech expected of experts on news reports. (These terms were not generally considered more than mildly offensive by most of the public at the time this comic was posted; the cultural mainstream is now typically much more critical of this type of language, and this comic would likely be heavily criticized if it were published today.)

==Transcript==
:[Cueball is staring at an empty box on the floor.]
:In what scientists are calling "pretty gay", I can't find my shoes.

==Trivia==
*This comic was never posted on [[LiveJournal]].
**But its "comic number" was still among the 44 comics that was posted on the day the xkcd web site opened (1st of January 2006).
**41 one of these were previously posted on LiveJournal; only three were not.
**The other two are [[5: Blown apart]] and [[12: Poisson]].
*However, comic #36 was originally posted as a duplicate of comic [[10: Pi Equals]]. This was corrected sometime between [http://web.archive.org/web/20060423175703/http://www.xkcd.com/c36.html April 23, 2006] and [http://web.archive.org/web/20060705231511/http://xkcd.com/c36.html July 5, 2006], when the current version showed up in the web archive (see the links).
**The comic looks like one of Randall's old drawings. So when he realized his mistake (over three months after it was originally posted), he probably found an old drawing he never originally intended to use and posted it, to not make it stand out compared to the other comics from that time.
**This is the reason there is no date for this comic. It can be anytime between the two dates mentioned above.

{{Comic discussion}}

[[Category:No date]]
[[Category:Checkered paper]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Language]]

Talk:2420: Appliances

2021-02-04T07:09:12Z

141.101.77.126: /* A washing mashine can (and does) spin-dry clothes */ new section

This seems related to [[1890: What to Bring]]. [[User:Bubblegum|bubblegum]]-[[User_talk:Bubblegum|talk]]|[[Special:Contributions/Bubblegum|contribs]] 02:55, 4 February 2021 (UTC)

I actually disagree with the stove and washing dishes. In a large pot with water and with some stirring one can remove stains from cloths and kill germs. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.96.28|141.101.96.28]] 07:08, 4 February 2021 (UTC)

== A washing mashine can (and does) spin-dry clothes ==

A spin-drying program can usually be selected separately without getting the clothes wet. While this is not effective as a dryer, still much better than nothing.
----

Talk:2419: Hug Count

2021-02-01T23:33:26Z

141.101.77.126:

I don't know how this makes me feel. I just don't hug. Maybe a couple of female relatives as I leave the traditional Christmas gathering (that didn't happen in 2020) because ''they'' expect it of me. But some societies (I'll namecheck the Italians, but there are many others) would possibly break those totals in a day (pre-Covid) just by going to the market-place and sealing deals with the local tradespeople. So my chart dipped drastically ast year, but not so much by absolute count. (No, not looking for sympathy, or virtual hugs, just saying...) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.77.126|141.101.77.126]] 23:33, 1 February 2021 (UTC)

2418: Metacarcinization

2021-01-29T17:49:51Z

141.101.77.126: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2418
| date = January 29, 2021
| title = Metacarcinization
| image = metacarcinization.png
| titletext = Scientists still don't know how marine biologists manage to so consistently bring up whalefall ecosystems, when relevant conversational openings are so few and far between.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Carcinization is also discussed in [[2314: Carcinization]]

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

{{comic discussion}}

Talk:2417: 1/1,000th Scale World

2021-01-29T01:43:52Z

141.101.77.126: /* Girl in the background */

Just for reference: the maths to scale down the Niagara Falls flow an convert from cubic feet to cubic centimeters:
<pre>
> 1e5*(.3048)^3*1000^2/(1e3)^3
[1] 2.831685
> 1e5*(.3048)^3*1000^2/(1e3)^3/2
[1] 1.415842
</pre>
American editors may want to adapt the formulas to add the numbers in cubic inches.--[[User:Pere prlpz|Pere prlpz]] ([[User talk:Pere prlpz|talk]]) 18:29, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

do we have a category for these small scale world comics if not we might want to discuss that. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.246|162.158.75.246]] 18:51, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

Based on the original Star Trek canon, I believe it more than reasonable to say that all of the Enterprises would be able to operate at least partially submerged, but I would be very worried about a scale aircraft carrier breaking in two if lifted. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.115|162.158.62.115]] 20:56, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

Tensile/shear strength works on cross-section, so would be proportional to the square of the scale, not the cube. A scaled-down Golden Gate Bridge would only support a millionth of the full load, not a billionth, so the proportional load is only 0.3 of a person. (And it basically wouldn't have to support itself, which, as it turns out, takes care of most of the remaining part.) --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.183.117|162.158.183.117]] 22:07, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

Neutrino Detector/Observatory seem to be 2 different things? one under an icesheet, one in tunnels? Some light should be shed on what they are, where they are, wether the ice sheet is to scale, etc. Also why the implication of the neutrino detector being functional ("The fact that people are not supposed to create false positives implies that the neutrino detector is functional.") - also: The no hot stuff on the ice could be just about not melting the ice and therefore destroying the model, instead of messing with the detectors... --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 06:25, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

Only particles that travel faster than the speed of light (in ice) will emmit Cherenkov light, so the part about the "hot objects" is incorrect. What is shown here is the IceCube observatory, whose main detector part are the "strings" with "DOMs" buried deep down in the ice (between about 1500m and 2500m below the surface) --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.69.213|141.101.69.213]] 08:45, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

I find that the zeppelin part doesn't make much sense (in the comic, not the explanation) as modern zeppelins are filled with helium rather than hydrogen... even "classic" zeppelins were filled with helium if available. The resaon for the Hindenburg not being filled with helium but hydrogen was a ban on helium exports by the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LZ_129_Hindenburg#Use_of_hydrogen_instead_of_helium [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 09:04, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

Would have been interesting if he had put a shipwreck on the ocean floor next to Cueball with the warning/reminder, "Do not try to raise the Titanic." [[User:RAGBRAIvet|RAGBRAIvet]] ([[User talk:RAGBRAIvet|talk]]) 09:46, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

In the upper left corner of the comic there is a girl with a "Mickey Mouse" and perhaps cornrows hairstyle. Is she black? Does Randal have other black characters in any of the comics?
[[User:Punchcard|Punchcard]] ([[User talk:Punchcard|talk]])
:I thought that was Science Girl...looks like her in [[1058]]. [[User:Danish|Danish]] ([[User talk:Danish|talk]]) 15:35, 28 January 2021 (UTC)
== Order of comics ==

I wonder why he posted this one after the 1/10,000 and 1/100,000 comics instead of publishing them in order. My thought is maybe he worked on them simultaneously but this one wasn't ready, or maybe he made this one because he felt the response to the previous two was positive. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.68.11|172.69.68.11]] 23:50, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

== Small planes ==

I was fascinated by the east/west layers shown under "Watch for small planes". I assume this is in reference to actual US FAA and/or global practices? And of course the next question that occurs to me is what about planes flying due north or due south? Can anyone fill in some notes on this? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.18|108.162.245.18]] 01:12, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

:Global. Well, not entirely universal, but common for lot of countries. See {{w|Flight level#Semicircular/hemispheric_rule|Semicircular Flight Level rule}}. Apparently, New Zealand, Italy and Portugal prefer to divide by North/South but most countries use West/East. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 01:34, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

:Any aircraft with a heading from 0° to 179° is considered to be flying "east", and one with a heading anywhere from 180° to 359° is considered to be flying west. (Headings get rounded to nearest degree, so nobody flies at 359.5°.) Traffic headed east flies at odd flight levels (31,000 ft, 33,000 ft, etc.) while traffic heading west flies at even flight levels (30,000 ft, 32,000 ft, etc.) -- [[Special:Contributions/172.68.174.132|172.68.174.132]] 03:38, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

==Girl in the background==
I don't get the girl sitting at top left. What is she sitting on?
:It's the {{w|Antarctic ice sheet}}. Big, innit? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.76.20|141.101.76.20]] 22:27, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

::But why is she up in the atmosphere?

:::She's not. She's sitting on top of the ice sheet. [[User:Danish|Danish]] ([[User talk:Danish|talk]])

:::The sheet averages 1.6km thick (1.6 scaled metres) or maybe more. But in places ''significantly'' more. The weight of ice can be depressing the ground beneath by greater than a couple of km. The detector array is (at the surface infrastructure) 2800m ASL with variously 1.5-2.5km of string-holes dangled down into the ice-cap. Comparing with Cueball, if brought away from wading in the ocean, that makes him slightly taller than I'd have guessed. (How you can see this - in the same view as the Golden Gate, all those cork-tipped buildings and other stuff - is an issue with the model layout rather than scale.) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.77.126|141.101.77.126]] 01:43, 29 January 2021 (UTC)

Talk:2414: Solar System Compression Artifacts

2021-01-24T22:58:04Z

141.101.77.126:

"([Compression artefacts] may become literally unnoticeable because hexadecimal color values are discrete[...]" - disagree. Artefacts exist ''because'' of a discrete nature. Either of the RGB(/HSV/whatever) granularity, the lower the colour depth, or of the method used to get around the overheads of storing literal 24+ bits of colour-depth across a given image size. TrueColo(u)r should escape ''perceived'' colour-banding, but any image editor knows (or relies upon) that any flood-fill/by-colour-selection used with an absolute drift range away from the datum spot less than that across a gradient spills away from it can highlight 'hidden' edges between (say) #789ABC and #789BBC. What we have here is low bit-depth (grey-shade or equal-RGB, apparently 4-bit(/each), counting the 16 bands thanks to the mach-banding) non-dithered band-shading of a possibly nuanced (fractal?) shade fall-off. Possibly a 2D slice through 3D (or more, e.g. if animated) of voxelated (or hypervoxelated) stored values, which use up a ''lot'' of space in the Universe Simulator. Perhaps there's also something like Discrete Cosine Transform compression for easier block/chunk storage, retrieval and/or generation-on-demand (with detailed deltas for complex overlaying features such as Voyager). Because the Creator/Programmer of the universe has limited storage/processor cycles! [[Special:Contributions/141.101.105.122|141.101.105.122]] 01:39, 21 January 2021 (UTC)
:tl;dr? — [[User:Sqrt-1|The 𝗦𝗾𝗿𝘁-𝟭]] [[User talk:Sqrt-1|talk]] [[Special:Contributions/Sqrt-1|stalk]] 13:16, 21 January 2021 (UTC)
::TLDR is this Tom Scott video on the topic: https://youtu.be/h9j89L8eQQk. Short version: the difference between blacks #010101 and #020202 (a doubling of brightness) is more noticeable than the difference between whites #FEFEFE and #FDFDFD (a 0.00001% change in brightness). If your picture is dark, and especially if it is compressed, you will often get ugly bands of different shades of black. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.237.28|108.162.237.28]] 16:50, 22 January 2021 (UTC)
I would suggest that more emphasis needs to be placed on 'dynamic range' and 'undetectable' in this explanation. Particularly noticeable in streaming video codecs, you often can't decipher any information in dark scenes/regions. So the joke is that the map beyond here is empty, mostly because it is too far down in the dynamic range of our lossy observations. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.80|108.162.219.80]] 17:36, 21 January 2021 (UTC)
:Re "...stretches out over maybe a dozen such low-res pixels/AUs, which is equivalent to slightly more than the radius of Saturn's orbit or the entire diameter of Jupiter's!", this assumes that Jupiter and Voyager are the same distance from the imaginary "camera". I can completely cover the moon with my thumb, but that does not imply that they are similar in size, because my thumb is closer to my eye. ''(Unsigned!)''
::I presume that this is the 'data' version of our system, straight from the 'cosmic computer' behind reality, viewed orthographically like a Minecraft map. But it matters not. The text quoted clearly gives scale context (on the justifiable presumption that the low-res grid is a 1AU-sized display of solar particle distribution) that "the range of the map the Voyager covers is like the size of these orbits". Just like "the area of the sky my thumb obscures is roughly a Moon-width". [[Special:Contributions/141.101.104.241|141.101.104.241]] 01:18, 22 January 2021 (UTC)
:Re: "The Voyager image (and track) is overlaid at finer resolution", if it not unheard-of for a compression algorithm to render, say, 32x32 pixel blocks as if they were single, larger pixels if their immediate neighbors are almost the same shade, while rendering small, detailed, and high contrast portions of the image at a higher resolution. No "overlay" required. ''(Still unsigned!)''
::Within an area of finer details, artefacts ''would'' be seen as the "meh, this is just one block" attitude is changed to incorperate detail of interest within a sub-block. There's no sign of fringe-artefacts (other than normal XKCS antialiasing of lines against background). I'd say it was a "solar wind" low-detail layer over which is incorporated a "Voyager" standard-detail layer with transparency, not a single layer of subject-aware tunable blockwise compression. (It might have come out differently if the composition was saved in an actual lossy-compression, by Randall, rather than .png, but for different reasons. Bit that's a meta-discussion issue, not nerd-sniping.) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.104.241|141.101.104.241]] 01:18, 22 January 2021 (UTC)
This doesn't just happen in old images. I still see this frequently when watching movies, even new ones, where what should be a smooth gradation of tones shows steps. The other obvious defect is poor sprite handling, which causes artifacts like someone's facial features not moving with their head movements.
I'm not sure dithering would be a useful way to dispel the banding, since dithering would increase the compressed data size because you no longer have large areas of all-the-same-pixel-value.
The banding could also be an artifact of the decompression. If you consider that a format like JPEG uses something like Fourier transforms it seems it should be able to represent a gradation easily and the stepped banding with difficulty, so I might be tempted to blame the banding on the decompression code.[[Special:Contributions/108.162.241.70|108.162.241.70]] 13:46, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

I did a 'best fit' on the probable solar system, across this 'map' (which I think is slightly made up, because of certain issues when I started differentiations of the grey-levels, making me think it has been 'painted', or enhanced, not taking from real data - of the 'real thing' or not). I don't seem to get any Wiki upload/new-media rights, as an IP user, but if anyone wants to look at the image saved at https://imgur.com/KSqC1Nr and consider it/be inspired by it then I offer it up, gratis. It features the orbits of Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune in body-appropriate hues, such that they are to scale with the true distance of Voyager from the focus of the likely circular orbts. (I think I left the 'Sun' pixel (image pixel, not 'artefact pixel') magenta, easier to see against the whitist-whiteout core shade.) I only refrained from adding Pluto (and Eris, etc) off because I don't have immediate into on the far more eccentric oval. Darn, I meant to add the asteroid belt. As a suitably fuzzy grey band. Not redoing it. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.77.126|141.101.77.126]] 22:58, 24 January 2021 (UTC)

== Source of Voyager 1 ==

Given Voyager 1's distance and age now, wouldn't it be more appropriate to change the opening explanatory sentence to "Voyager 1 is a space probe launched from Earth in 1977."
The only sentient creatures who may still care about its origins in the United States are probably also from the United States. The next sentient beings to encounter Voyager 1 will have no understanding of what the United States is or was.

One more point: I think this XKCD is a play on the fact that every few years we hear once again that "Voyager has left the solar system". First because it passed the termination shock, then because it passed the heliopause. [https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/news/784/nasas-voyager-2-probe-enters-interstellar-space/ This article from NASA] says that Voyager won't be officially out of the solar system until it passes the Oort cloud. These milestones seem arbitrary, so why not make up one more? [[User:Efalk|Efalk]] ([[User talk:Efalk|talk]]) 17:13, 24 January 2021 (UTC)

2412: 1/100,000th Scale World

2021-01-17T09:05:42Z

141.101.77.126: /* Explanation */ Not everyone understands weird local measurements

{{comic
| number = 2412
| date = January 15, 2021
| title = 1/100,000th Scale World
| image = 1_100000th_scale_world.png
| titletext = The floor should be slightly curved, but we haven't figured out artificial gravity yet, so for now we just added a trace intoxicating gas to the air that messes with your inner ear and gives you a sense that the ground is tilting away from you.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TOXIC AURORA. The table needs to be filled out, and the explanation needs more work as well. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic is a sequel to the [[2411: 1/10,000th Scale World|previous one]]. As in the previous comic, Randall has another seemingly complete copy of Earth, this time at a 1:100,000 scale, with various features and warnings labeled. Again, real-world phenomena are replicated at scale.

{| class="wikitable"
!Rule
!Reason
!Notes
|-
|Our aurora are probably non-toxic but please stop trying to taste them
| The aurora in the image is now temptingly at head height, and presumably look a lot like cotton candy or other inviting foodstuffs.
| The plural of "{{w|aurora}}" should actually be "auroras" or "aurorae".
|-
|No breaking off pieces of the ice caps to put in your drink
|An ice cap is a mass of ice that covers less than 50,000 km2 (19,000 sq mi) of land area.
|Breaking off pieces of ice caps would affect the climate of the scale world. In addition, breaking off pieces of somebody's models is ''very'' rude.
|-
|Warning: Limited cell network coverage above the ionosphere, crouch down to get more bars
| The ionosphere reflects radio signals, in this case keeping terrestrial cellular phone signals from reaching phones higher up.
|The ionosphere would be at around 48-965 centimeters in the scale world, so visitors would need to place their phones below it to receive cellphone signals.
|-
|Do not step on Mt. Everest
| Mt. Everest, the highest peak on Earth, is several inches tall at 1:100,000 scale.
|Mt. Everest would probably be extremely sharp and puncture your foot.
|-
|Caution! Ocean floor slippery when wet
| Due to the smaller scale, the ocean depths would only be a few inches deep at most; this amount of liquid would cause more of a 'slippery surface' than a 'water region'.
|
|-
|Wear sunscreen; the ozone layer only protects you below the knees.
|The ozone layer is a layer of the Earth's stratosphere that shields the Earth from the Sun's ultraviolet rays.
|The ozone layer is approximately 15-35 kilometers above Earth, or 15-35 centimeters in this scaled world, below knee height. Visitors would need sunscreen to protect them from UV rays. In the real world, most humans live with their bodies entirely below the ozone layer but wear sunscreen anyway, so visitors should probably also wear sunscreen below their knees as well as above if they're going to be visiting around midday.
|-
|Beware of chest-level meteors
|Meteors typically occur (i.e. become more visible than in space) in the mesosphere at altitudes from 76 to 100 km (250,000 to 330,000 ft).
|In the scale world, meteors would occur at 76 to 100 centimeters, around chest height. You'd expect head-level asteroids too, as precursors, but this may be (mutually) covered by the eye-protection against satellite re-entry, below. (I'd personally also suggest a hard-hat.)
|-
| -100° mesopause vest recommended
|The mesopause is the boundary in the earth's atmosphere between the mesosphere and the thermosphere. Due to the lack of solar heating and very strong radiative cooling from carbon dioxide, it is the coldest region on Earth with temperatures as low as -100 °C (-148 °F).
|Without protection, visitors would succumb to hypothermia due to the extremely low temperatures.
|-
|If Lake Tahoe or the Dead Sea dries up, refill them with this 5oz wine glass
|Five ounces, times 100,0003 (because this is volume, so the linear scale factor applies to each of three dimensions), would be about 150 cubic kilometers, which is the approximate volume of {{w|Lake Tahoe}}; the {{w|Dead Sea}} is recently about 115 cubic kilometers, though it used to be somewhat larger.
|Five fluid ounces (US customary) is a tad below 148 cubic centimetres, or millilitres. (Elsewhere, if used, it is actually nearer 142cc.) Modern wine glasses may actually hold 450ml (filled to the brim), but 150ml is typical of a late 19thC antique glass or a modern 'serving' level that is more tasteful/economic than an overgenerous 'drown your sorrows' one.
|-
|Safety glasses required for protection from reentering spacecraft
|It is at approximately head height in this model that de-orbiting spacecraft are at their fastest, depending upon where their decayed or departed original was. At scale, they'd probably equate to a metalworking fragment, perhaps more dangerous in quantity than individually.
|We also tend to know about satellites and fairings returning to Earth and most (unless intended to) won't significantly survive. Meteors (see above) are hard to spot in space unless particularly big, may only be detected when spotted burning up, may be significantly denser/less fragile, and could be traveling five times faster. General head protection may be advised, just in case.
|-
|Do not anger the sprites
| {{w|Sprite (lightning)|Sprites}} are poorly understood electrical phenomena in the upper atmosphere. They are enormous but very short-lived.
| Sprites are also a name given to a form of forest spirit known for mischievous and sometimes harmful behavior. In some fairy tales, a warning would be given to not anger the spirits in case of grave repercussions.
|-
|Please stop digging through the Moho. Staff are tired of cleaning up large igneous provinces.
|Short for the {{w|Mohorovičić discontinuity}}, the Moho is the boundary surface separating the Earth's crust from the mantle. It can be found at a depth of 6-7 miles under the ocean bed, and about 24-30 miles under the continents.
|Using Randall's 1/100,000th scale world, 6-7 miles would be approximately 4 inches, while 24-30 miles would be about 16 inches, making the Moho easily accessible via digging. It would indeed create large igneous provinces, and make a big mess of lava that the staff would have to clean up, which would not be fun {{Citation needed}}. The lava has a decent chance to burn through a mop or something, so it would be pretty tricky to clean up as well since your cleaning items would light on fire unless soaked in water or something.
|-
|ISS (14 feet up) Returns every 90 minutes - Hit it with a nerf dart, win a prize!
| The {{w|International Space Station}} is the largest human-made object in space and orbits the Earth once every 90 minutes.
| This idea of treating modern research as a toy is in the same general panel area as the weather balloon smacking from the previous comic, except instead of a rule preventing people from doing so, this time the visitor is being ''dared'' to attempt it, similarly to a {{w|carnival game}}. Hitting the ISS with a nerf dart in this scaled world would have a potentially devastating effect on the ISS; however, at this scale the ISS would be about a millimeter across, so that hitting it so far above your head as it goes by would be very difficult.
|}

The title text states that the floor should be slightly curved. In fact, given that the model in the comic is about 10 meters long, it represents about 1000 km of Earth, which spans about 9 degrees of a great circle. Therefore, if the model wasn't larger than the part shown in the panel, its edges would have a very noticeable slope of 4.5 degrees. What's more, the note that they haven't invented artificial gravity reveals that the scale worlds are nothing more than a mundane model, rather than some supernatural phenomenon that allows giants to roam about the surface of the Earth.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:RULES:
:For visitors to my 1/100,000th scale world
:1 meter = 100 km, 1 ft=100,000ft≈20 miles

:ISS (14 feet up)
:Returns every 90 minutes
:Hit it with a Nerf dart to win a prize!

:Our aurora are probably non-toxic, but please stop trying to taste them

:[one cell bar] Warning: Limited cell network coverage above the ionosphere. Crouch down to get more bars

:Safety glasses required for protection from reentering spacecraft
:Cueball: OW!
:(off-screen): What?
:Cueball: I got a Soyuz in my eye

:Beware of chest level meteors

:-100°C Mesopause vest recommended
{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Illustrations of scale]]