explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:1459: Documents

2015-01-03T20:06:32Z

141.101.93.218:

742 Evergreen Terrace.docx
742 Evergreen Terrace (2).docx

[[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.51|141.101.99.51]] 07:24, 12 December 2014 (UTC)

I'm sure everyone can relate to using poor filenames occasionally. As far as default filenames go:

*Notepad (XP) = *.txt - Cannot save without choosing a new filename.
*Word (2003) = Title (if set by template) > First sentence of document > Doc1.doc, Doc2.doc, etc
*Paint (XP) = untitled.bmp
--[[User:Pudder|Pudder]] ([[User talk:Pudder|talk]]) 08:58, 12 December 2014 (UTC)

Using the image format (.jpg) to store text information (like addresses) will also contribute to an annoying future if you ever need to copy data from that file into some other programme. [[User:SirKitKat|sirKitKat]] ([[User talk:SirKitKat|talk]]) 09:58, 12 December 2014 (UTC)
: oo good point -- [[User:Brettpeirce|Brettpeirce]] ([[User talk:Brettpeirce|talk]]) 13:13, 12 December 2014 (UTC)
:: Could be a JPEG because it's a camera photo of the address on something. That'd make it even more perverse because most cameras create files with names like DSC01234.jpg meaning he's given it the "Untitled" moniker on purpose. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.78|141.101.99.78]] 14:23, 12 December 2014 (UTC)
::: It's a screenshot. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.62.169|173.245.62.169]] 18:15, 12 December 2014 (UTC)
::: Screenshots begin with "IMG_XXXX". [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.41|108.162.216.41]] 05:23, 26 December 2014 (UTC)
: Placing an email address in a graphic is often used when the email address is to be displayed on a web page to make it difficult for email-address harvesting programs to grab the email address for spamming. But that's probably not relevant here.--[[User:RenniePet|RenniePet]] ([[User talk:RenniePet|talk]]) 15:28, 12 December 2014 (UTC)

Something I come a cross now and then is the result of the following situation: You are in the process of selecting multiple files while holding CTRL. During the process of quickly selecting the next file, you accidentally move your cursor/mouse while clicking the next file, resulting in copying all the selected files on the same location :) [[User:SirKitKat|sirKitKat]] ([[User talk:SirKitKat|talk]]) 13:36, 12 December 2014 (UTC)

Title is an impossible file name in most operating environments because it is too long at 277 characters. 255 characters is the limit for any file or folder name in Linux, and is the limit for a fully defined file name (file and full path the file is in) in Windows. So the Title/Alt text is 22 characters too long for Linux and at least 25 characters too long for Windows since being in the root of drive takes 3 characters, each folder adds at least 2 characters (a letter and the slash). I encounter clients pushing this limit all the time, complaining why they can't access their files with the novel length file names, so this comic REALLLYYY spoke to me. As an IT consultant, I get to see and occasionally cleanup such poor file naming conventions.
[[User:Chaosadventurer|Chaosadventurer]] ([[User talk:Chaosadventurer|talk]]) 15:34, 12 December 2014 (UTC)
:Technically, Windows can handle paths longer than 260 characters (the definition of MAX_PATH in Windows API), but it requires special nomenclature (eg. "\\?\D:\very-long-path), and each individual backslash-delimited component is still limited to 255 chars. The maximum length of that type of path is 32,767 characters AFTER Unicode expansion. Most Unix-based file systems have a max filename length of 255 chars and a max path length of 4,096 chars. [[User:KieferSkunk|KieferSkunk]] ([[User talk:KieferSkunk|talk]]) 20:54, 12 December 2014 (UTC)
::Mostly correct, ReFS supports up to 32,767 Unicode characters, but is limited in Windows 8/8.1(and I guess by extention 2012 and 2012 R2) to 255 characters. Most filesystems specify bytes and not characters, so it could vary based on if it's unicode or not. [[User:TuxyQ|TuxyQ]] ([[User talk:TuxyQ|talk]]) 09:57, 17 December 2014 (UTC)

I suppose it's just the OCD but the fact that the filenames are not in alphabetical order is the first thing that hit me. They're not even alphabetical by file type/extension. About the only thing that would result in this ordering is if the files were sorted by timestamp (which we don't see). Of course, if I were looking over someone's shoulder at their timestamp sorted list of files, I might be just as horrified by the ordering as I would by the names.
[[User:MrBigDog2U|MrBigDog2U]] ([[User talk:MrBigDog2U|talk]]) 15:40, 12 December 2014 (UTC)
:Sometimes it is useful to sort by timestamp. When looking for the latest file, for example. Given the filenames are near useless in this example, sorting by timestamp could be the easiest way to find something. ("I'm looking for the fine I worked on about two weeks ago.") -- Equinox [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.117|199.27.128.117]] 18:53, 12 December 2014 (UTC)

Does anyone know why "Untitled 241.doc" and "Untitled 40 MOM ADRESS.jpg" are out of order. The rest seem to be in accending order? {{unsigned ip|108.162.221.135}}
:Assuming it wasn't just an oversight on Randall's part, it's likely using a non-alphanumeric sort on the directory listing. The operating system (likely Windows) usually sorts things alphanumerically, but can also sort them by date (created or modified). In a DOS-style listing, you can also list them in the order they were inserted into the file system (effectively unsorted). On the other hand, Windows listings also contain special logic to process numbers in "natural order" rather than alphanumeric order, so that (1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 20) would be listed in that order instead of (1, 10, 11, 2, 20, 3). However, that doesn't appear to be happening in this case. [[User:KieferSkunk|KieferSkunk]] ([[User talk:KieferSkunk|talk]]) 20:48, 12 December 2014 (UTC)

Could the alt text be a reference to "successor of" notation from set theory. I'm not an expert at all, but the explicit use of "copy of" over and over makes sense as another mathematical but absurd document naming schema. I think it's called successor ordinals or something like that. {{unsigned ip|173.245.50.179}}

The "copy of copy of copy of" thing is actually a quirk related to passing around files via email (happens often within an office network) where the other person does not save the file but rather opens it first then proceeds to save it after reading/editing, since MS Office has originally designated that file as 'from another computer'/read only, it will add the prefix 'copy of' to properly save a copy of the original file. This file is then further forwarded to someone else, continuing the chain. In a file that is heavily edited you can often get names with 4 of 5 "copy of"s before the actual name.

Someone may want to edit the explanation to add this detail as it is the most common reason for multiple "copy of"s in front of each other.
[[User:TjPhysicist|TjPhysicist]] ([[User talk:TjPhysicist|talk]]) 05:28, 19 December 2014 (UTC)

A more likely/common reason for "copy of copy of copy of" relates to files opened directly from email programs (instead of saved then opened), upon saving them after editing like this the phrase "copy of" will be added to the filename indicating that this is a copy of the original file (the original file being somewhere in a temp folder, since it was never saved). This trend often continues, especially in office settings, where files are passed around via email a lot, every user that edits it adding one extra "copy of". Editing to mention this

[[User:TjPhysicist|TjPhysicist]] ([[User talk:TjPhysicist|talk]]) 05:42, 19 December 2014 (UTC)

"Copy of copy of copy of copy ..." also reminded me of NIN song "Copy of a" (http://youtu.be/pVB_DI4ajKA)
[[Special:Contributions/141.101.93.218|141.101.93.218]] 20:06, 3 January 2015 (UTC)

1413: Suddenly Popular

2014-12-09T23:16:29Z

141.101.93.218: /* Explanation */ +missing space

{{comic
| number = 1413
| date = August 27, 2014
| title = Suddenly Popular
| image = suddenly_popular.png
| titletext = Are Your Teens Practicing Amplexus? Learn These Six Telltale Signs!
}}

==Explanation==
Many phrases that used to be of mainly academic interest become popular when an important event or global trend is described with such phrases in the media. [[Randall]] presents a timeline of past examples, and predicts phrases that may be popularised in the near future. The past events are a mix of buzz words and words learned through disasters, crime and terrorism. The future events seem to be all related to natural disasters or other kinds of serious issues, except ''{{w|Amplexus}}'' — which is the joke of the title text — showing that no matter how many disasters there are, people are generally more concerned about their teenagers' sex lives.

The title text is also an example of a {{w|clickbait}} headline. Many organizations will post a link on social media to their content with a sensationalized headline in order to draw readers in. In this case, the headline is geared towards parents who are worried about their children being sexually active in this new ''Amplexus'' way. Such headlines are the internet's analog to television news' {{w|Promo (media)|promos}} ("A new trend among teens is sweeping the nation, but is it dangerous? Details at 11:00.").

{{w|Global catastrophic risks|Global catastrophic risk}} is a theme throughout this comic. Randall predicts a large asteroid impact/near miss and a volcanic eruption, followed by an {{w|impact winter}} or {{w|volcanic winter}}. An insect borne, global pandemic without a cure also strikes, and then the {{w|technological singularity}} occurs.

This comic has similar features to [[887: Future Timeline]].

==List of the phrases==
Below the phrases are listed with the closest year from the time-line noted behind the phrase. Note that this year does not necessarily match with the in-real-life relevant year. This may be found in the explanation of the phrase below. [https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=world+wide+web%2Cdna+evidence%2Cmilitia+movement%2Csupermax%2Cbutterfly+ballot%2Cal-qaeda%2Cwi-fi%2Ctsunami%2Cviral%2Cradicalize%2Cmetadata&case_insensitive=on&year_start=1900&year_end=2008&corpus=15&smoothing=0&share=&direct_url=t4%3B%2Cworld%20wide%20web%3B%2Cc0%3B%2Cs0%3B%3BWorld%20Wide%20Web%3B%2Cc0%3B%3Bworld%20wide%20web%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BWORLD%20WIDE%20WEB%3B%2Cc0%3B.t4%3B%2Cdna%20evidence%3B%2Cc0%3B%2Cs0%3B%3BDNA%20evidence%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BDNA%20Evidence%3B%2Cc0%3B.t4%3B%2Cmilitia%20movement%3B%2Cc0%3B%2Cs0%3B%3Bmilitia%20movement%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BMilitia%20Movement%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BMilitia%20movement%3B%2Cc0%3B.t4%3B%2Csupermax%3B%2Cc0%3B%2Cs0%3B%3Bsupermax%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BSupermax%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BSUPERMAX%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BSuperMax%3B%2Cc0%3B.t4%3B%2Cbutterfly%20ballot%3B%2Cc0%3B%2Cs0%3B%3Bbutterfly%20ballot%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BButterfly%20Ballot%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BButterfly%20ballot%3B%2Cc0%3B.t4%3B%2Cal%20-%20qaeda%3B%2Cc0%3B%2Cs0%3B%3Bal%20-%20Qaeda%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BAl%20-%20Qaeda%3B%2Cc0%3B.t4%3B%2Cwi%20-%20fi%3B%2Cc0%3B%2Cs0%3B%3BWi%20-%20Fi%3B%2Cc0%3B%3Bwi%20-%20fi%3B%2Cc0%3B.t4%3B%2Ctsunami%3B%2Cc0%3B%2Cs0%3B%3Btsunami%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BTsunami%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BTSUNAMI%3B%2Cc0%3B.t4%3B%2Cviral%3B%2Cc0%3B%2Cs0%3B%3Bviral%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BViral%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BVIRAL%3B%2Cc0%3B.t4%3B%2Cradicalize%3B%2Cc0%3B%2Cs0%3B%3Bradicalize%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BRadicalize%3B%2Cc0%3B.t4%3B%2Cmetadata%3B%2Cc0%3B%2Cs0%3B%3Bmetadata%3B%2Cc0%3B%3BMetadata%3B%2Cc0 Google Books Ngram Viewer] can show the relative frequency of those words in function of the year.

;{{w|World Wide Web}} – 1994
:Though first proposed in 1989, and the first test being completed in 1990, it took until around 1994 for the {{w|World Wide Web|world wide web}} to start becoming well known.

;{{w|DNA profiling|DNA Evidence}} – 1995
:Prominent coverage of the {{w|O. J. Simpson murder trial}} in 1994 brought widespread discussion of {{w|DNA profiling|DNA Evidence}}, making it famous and showing its limitations.

;{{w|Militia Movement}} – 1996
:After the standoffs at {{w|Ruby Ridge}}, Idaho in 1992 and the {{w|Branch Davidians}} compound in Waco, Texas between U.S. Government Agencies and militias in 1993, people started becoming more aware of their presence, culminating with the 1995 {{w|Oklahoma City Bombing}} on the second anniversary of the fire at the Branch Davidians compound.

;{{w|Supermax prison|Supermax}} – 1997
:Super-Maximum security prisons. Possibly referring to the 1997 film {{w|Con Air}}, starring Nicolas Cage, John Cusack, and John Malkovich, in which prisoners being transferred to a new Supermax prison seize control of their transport plane. Also possibly referring to {{w|Timothy McVeigh}} and {{w|Terry Nichols}}, perpetrators of the aforementioned Oklahoma City bombing, who were incarcerated at {{w|ADX Florence}}, the former from the time of his arrest to 1999, and the latter from the time of his conviction to the present day.

[[File:Butterfly Voters View.jpg|thumb|A butterfly ballot]]
;{{w|butterfly ballot|Butterfly Ballot}} – 2000
:In the {{w|United States presidential election in Florida, 2000|United States presidential election in 2000, Florida}} had a major recount dispute that took center stage in the election. Thus, the outcome of the 2000 United States presidential election was not known for more than a month after balloting, because of the extended process of counting and then recounting of Florida presidential ballots. The {{w|butterfly ballot}} was the type of ballot design {{w|United States presidential election in Florida, 2000#Palm Beach County's butterfly ballots|used in Palm Beach County, Florida}}, and was a central issue in the election controversy. Evidence suggests that many voters who intended to vote for Gore or Bush actually marked their ballots for Pat Buchanan or spoiled their ballots, because of a confusing layout of the ballot.

;{{w|Al-Qaeda}} – 2002
:The {{w|September 11th terrorist attacks}} brought the al-Qaeda terrorist organisation into the spotlight almost overnight.

;{{w|Wi-Fi}} – 2003
:Wi-Fi, though developed in the 1990s, first became popular in the early 2000s.

;{{w|Tsunami}} – 2006
:There were a number of tsunamis around this time period, in particular the {{w|Boxing Day Tsunami}} which caused 230,000 deaths, and the {{w|2006 Pangandaran earthquake and tsunami}}. These were some of the first tsunamis to be widely captured on camera, bringing these previously obscure seismic events into the public eye.

;{{w|Viral}} – 2009
:In this context, the word viral is used to describe anything which spreads rapidly and widely on the internet. In particular an online video clip is said to have 'Gone Viral' or become a {{w|Viral video}} if it racks up a high number of views over a short time. This phenomenon has become especially prevalent due to users sharing content on {{w|Social media}}.

;{{w|Radicalization|Radicalize}} – 2011
:Due to the ongoing {{w|Syrian Civil War}}, and the relative ease with which one can travel from Europe to Syria by way of Turkey, there is growing concern about the risk of young Muslims in Europe (and, to a lesser extent, the United States) becoming {{w|radicalization|radicalized}} by indoctrination from fundamentalists either in their communities or on the Internet.

;{{w|Metadata}} – 2013
:Following the highly publicised 2013 leaks by {{w|Edward Snowden}} of information regarding the {{w|NSA}}'s indiscriminate surveillance of global communication metadata, awareness of the privacy value of such data became widespread, where once it was mostly familiar to IT professionals.

''From this point on, phrases were in the future at the time of publication.''

;{{w|Lahar}} – 2016
:A lahar is a mudslide caused by the eruption of a volcano that was covered with snow or ice. Randall is speculating on a future natural disaster being caused by such an incident. {{w|Bárðarbunga}} volcano covered with the {{w|Vatnajökull}} glacier on Iceland increased activity just a few days before publishing of this comic and may erupt in the near future.

;{{w|Insect-borne disease|Insect-Borne}} – 2019
:Some {{w|Category:Insect-borne diseases|diseases are insect-borne}}, meaning specific species of insects are the main vector in spreading to humans. {{w|Malaria}} is an example of an {{w|insect-borne disease}}. Randall predicts some deadly insect-borne disease will emerge around this time.

;{{w|Earth-crosser|Earth-Crossing}} – 2021
:Earth-crossers are asteroids that cross the orbit of Earth. Most of them remain harmless because their orbit doesn't actually intersect the earth's orbit in 3 dimensions, or for the foreseeable future, they will cross when Earth is not there. For this phrase to become popular, an Earth-crosser might have to reach the heretofore-unreached "threatening" level, rating a 5 or more on the {{w|Torino Scale}}, due to a significant chance of a large impact. As of 2014, there are no threats of that level known in the early 2020s. If the next two phrases are connected to this one, Randall is predicting a significant asteroid impact.

;{{w|Thermohaline circulation|Thermohaline}} – 2022
:Thermohaline circulation is the largest group of interconnected ocean currents, which stabilize global climate by equalizing the temperature and salinity of oceans around the world. If this phrase becomes popular, it implies the thermohaline circulation would have slowed or changed significantly. This might be caused by asteroid impact or by polar ice melting. The latter scenario was apocalyptically dramatized in the movie {{w|The Day After Tomorrow}}.

;{{w|Snow blindness|Snow-Blindness}} – 2024
:Snow blindness is an eye condition caused by excessive UV light reflected from snow and ice. This can lead to corneal damage and blindness (temporary, if treated properly). This phrase becoming popular might suggest a long {{w|impact winter}} (from the asteroid) or severe {{w|ozone depletion}} in cold regions of the world.

;{{w|Amplexus}} – 2025
:A form of non-penetrative reproduction carried out by some animals, for example frogs, involving grasping the partner with front legs. This may be connected to the other posts (some change in human society) or it may simply be a joke at how new sexual language/fads appear and hit mainstream media from time to time (for example a number of acts gained fame from Sex and the City). This also ties in with the title text, which imagines a sensationalist headline suggesting teenagers may be doing this.

;{{w|Aquaplaning|Controlled Hydroplaning}} – 2028
:Hydroplaning occurs when a vehicle tire comes in contact with a puddle in such a way that the water builds up between the tire and the road surface. The film of water, having a much lower coefficient of friction than the road surface, causes the tire to lose traction. Typically, in this scenario, the driver isn't planning to hydroplane and loses control of the vehicle. In theory, controlled hydroplaning would be achieved when the driver plans for it ahead of time. This could be necessary if, in this hypothetical future, most of the roads are flooded since the impact winter (after only four years) ends and thus a great thaw causes all roads to become wet all the time.

;{{w|Paradoxical reaction|Paradoxical Reaction}} – 2031
:"paradoxical reaction" is a medical term for when the outcome of a medical treatment, typically the taking of a drug, is the opposite of that expected. For example if taking a pain relieving medication made the pain worse. For this term to suddenly become well known, a large scale or particularly notable case must have taken place (such as the insect-borne disease of 2019). Or, this and the following (and maybe the last as well) phrases may refer to the events from {{w|The Evitable Conflict}} by Isaac Asimov (and its very loose but much more popular film adaptation {{w|I,_Robot_(film)|I, Robot}}) where robots, instructed with the {{w|Three Laws of Robotics}}, take over the world to prevent humans hurting each other. The paradoxical reaction is that these laws were specifically designed to, among other things, prevent robots from taking over the world in the first place.

;{{w|Desertion|Drone Desertion}} – 2033
:Desertion is the abandonment of a post or duty, usually military in nature. With the increasing use of autonomous drones by the military this hints at an event where drones 'decide' to desert, possibly due to unspecified advances in {{w|Artificial Intelligence}} and {{w|Robot Rights}}. Or maybe they just start following the {{w|Three Laws of Robotics}}.

;{{w|Human hair growth|Rapid Hair Growth}} – 2034
:Maybe some humans have developed a very rapid hair growth (presumably on the entire body) caused by the cold years of the impact winter.

;{{w|Oath#Divine oath|I Swear Allegiance To The God-Empress In Life And In Death}} – 2038
:This is a {{w|Oath#Divine oath|divine oath}}. A possible explanation is that after the impact and the desertion of the drones predicted for 2033, a strong fraction has made their leader divine, and everyone now has to swear allegiance to this new God-Empress using this phrase - which would certainly make it a very "popular" phrase. The phrase [http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/GodEmperor God-Emperor] was popularized in the science-fiction work ''Dune'' in 1965 and has been repeatedly referenced since, notably in the tabletop game Warhammer 40,000 and the computer game Starcraft (and their related media).

==Transcript==
:Obscure words and phrases everyone suddenly becomes very familiar with.
:[A time line to the left is marked of by several phrases to the right around the time they became familiar to the public:]
::<-- World Wide Web
::<-- DNA Evidence
:1995
::<-- Militia Movement
::<-- Supermax
:2000
::<-- Butterfly Ballot
::<-- Al-Qaeda
::<-- Wi-Fi
:2005
::<-- Tsunami
::<-- Viral
:2010
::<-- Radicalize
::<-- Metadata
:2015
::<-- Lahar
::<-- Insect-Borne
:2020
::<-- Earth-Crossing
::<-- Thermohaline
::<-- Snow-Blindness
:2025
::<-- Amplexus
::<-- Controlled Hydroplaning
:2030
::<-- Paradoxical Reaction
::<-- Drone Desertion
::<-- Rapid Hair Growth
:2035
::<-- I Swear Allegiance To The God-Empress In Life And In Death
:2040

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Charts]]

1379: 4.5 Degrees

2014-06-11T15:47:55Z

141.101.93.218:

{{comic
| number = 1379
| date = June 9, 2014
| title = 4.5 Degrees
| image = 4_5_degrees.png
| titletext = The good news is that according to the latest IPCC report, if we enact aggressive emissions limits now, we could hold the warming to 2°C. That's only HALF an ice age unit, which is probably no big deal.
}}

==Explanation==
{{Incomplete|Do a more careful comparison of Randall's presented predictions with the most recent IPCC predictions}}
This comic is a way to visualize changes in climate over the next century. The prediction presented, 4-5 degrees Celsius of warming, doesn't seem like a very large change, but [[Randall]] points out that 4.5 °C is the difference between the {{w|Last glacial period|last ice age}} and today, which is quite a substantial difference. So, to give context to the number, he measures the temperature in "Ice Age Units," or IAU. 1 IAU is defined as the change in average global temperature by 4.5 degrees Celsius (8 °F). The last ice age was 1 IAU colder than the average "modern" {{w|global temperature}}, and Randall's neighborhood was buried under an ice sheet. The predicted change by the year 2100 is +1 IAU, and while we don't know what its effects will be exactly (represented by a large question mark in the comic) it will probably be huge. For reference he notes that a change of +2 IAU created the {{w|Cretaceous Thermal Maximum|"Hothouse Earth"}} of the early {{w|Cretaceous period}}. In short, while 4.5 °C seems like a small change in temperature, it seems quite a lot bigger if you phrase it as "halfway to having {{w|Arecaceae|palm trees}} at the poles." There were {{w|Polar forests of the Cretaceous|polar forests}} during the Cretaceous that grew in latitudes up to 85° in both Northern and Southern hemispheres. Of course there could not be trees in the ocean directly over the North Pole, but at the closest land masses ({{w|Greenland}} for instance) there could be trees.

On the colder side, -4 IAU is associated with {{w|Snowball Earth}}, a near-total freezing of the entire surface around 650 millions years ago. How much of the planet was actually frozen in the {{w|Cryogenian}} period is disputed but it could have been the greatest ice age known to have occurred on Earth. The mean temperature must have lowered to a level of 15 to 20 °C below actual values roughly a billion years in the past.

The oldest known animal fossils ({{w|Sponges#Fossil_record|sponges}}) are from the Snowball Earth, while {{w|Flowering_plant#Evolution|flowering plants}} became the dominant plant species during the Cretaceous period.

The 200 m {{w|Current sea level rise|sea level rise}} given in the last panel for a "Cretaceous Hothouse" (i.e. if all ice on earth melted, including the Antarctic ice cap) could not be explained by this melt-off alone. If all the ice melted the water level would only increase by about 60-80 m, according to {{w|Antarctica}}, [http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/ IPCC Third Assessment Report] (section 11.2.3 on Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets) and [http://water.usgs.gov/edu/sealevel.html Sea Level and Climate: USGS Water-Science School]. Additional sea level rise can be expected from thermal expansion of seawater, and indeed the main reason for rising sea level at the moment is actually caused by this expansion of the sea due to increasing temperature. But the high-end 500-year projection for a 4x increase in CO2, at {{w|Current_sea_level_rise#IPCC_Third_Assessment|expansion of the sea}}, is for an additional 2 m due to thermal expansion, with a decreasing rate of growth over time.

The 5th and most recent {{w|Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}} (IPCC AR5) presents four alternative trajectories for future concentrations of greenhouse gasses, termed {{w|Representative Concentration Pathways}} (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. They are named after possible ranges of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2, respectively). The hottest of these, RCP8.5, is predicted to result in a warming of 2.6 °C to 4.8 °C by 2100 ([http://www.climate2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf Working Group I Summary for Policymakers]). This seems at odds with the 4-5 °C warming presented by Randall.

The title text says that even with instant and aggressive emissions reduction, the temperature will still rise by roughly half an IAU (2 °C). While it says it's ''probably no big deal'', this is a joke, because even the equivalent of half an Ice Age Unit of warming would cause a huge climate change. The figure of 2 °C is the most commonly agreed {{w|Climate_change_mitigation#Temperature_targets|temperature target}}; however, the lack of internationally binding agreements makes breaching this target more and more likely.

==Transcript==
:Without prompt, aggressive limits on CO2 emissions, the Earth will likely warm by an average of 4°-5°C by the century’s end.
:'''HOW BIG A CHANGE IS THAT?'''

:[A ruler chart is drawn inside a frame.]
:In the coldest part of the last ice age, Earth’s average temperature was 4.5°C below the 20th century norm.
:Let’s call a 4.5°C difference one '''”Ice age unit.“'''

:[A ruler with five main divisions — each again with 3 smaller quarter division markers. Above it the five main divisions are marked as follows with 0 in the middle:]
:-2 IAU -1 IAU 0 +1 IAU +2 IAU
:[Next to the 0 marking a black arrow points toward 0.2 on the scale and above it is written:]
:Where we are today

:[The rest of the text is below the ruler.]
:[To the far left below -2 IAU a curved arrow points to the left. Below it is written:]
:Snowball earth (-4 IAU)
:[Below -1 IAU a black arrow point toward this division. Below the arrow is written:]
:20,000 years ago
:[Below this an image of a glacier. At the top of the image is written:]
:My neighborhood:
:[At the bottom of the image is an arrow pointing to the glacier:]
:Half a mile of ice
:[Below 0 IAU a black arrow point toward this division. Below the arrow is written:]
:Average during modern times
:[Below this an image of Cueball standing on a green field with a city skyline in the background. At the top of the image is written:]
:My neighborhood:
:Cueball: Hi!
:[Below +1 IAU a black arrow point toward this division. Below the arrow is written:]
:Where we’ll be in 86 years
:[Below this a white image. At the top of the image is written:]
:My neighborhood:
:[Below this is a very large:]
:'''?'''
:[Below +2 IAU a black arrow point toward this division. Below the arrow is written:]
:Cretaceous hothouse
:+200m sea level rise
:No glaciers
:Palm trees at the poles

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
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