explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

2099: Missal of Silos

2019-01-17T14:04:19Z

162.158.114.100: /* Explanation */ Someone sure likes the word 'home'

{{comic
| number = 2099
| date = January 16, 2019
| title = Missal of Silos
| image = missal_of_silos.png
| titletext = Welcome to Wyoming, motto "We'd like to clarify that Cheyenne Mountain is in Colorado."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Cremated by a BOB. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
{{w|Approximate string matching|Fuzzy, or approximate, string matching}} is a technique used for searching text for specified "strings" of characters. Normal string matching would only find results that fit the search exactly (searching for "''missile''" would find only occurrences of "''missile''"). Fuzzy string matching instead finds results that are "close enough" by some metric (searching for "''missile''" would find "''missile''" but also close variants like "''missal''" or "''missel''"). This is often used in search engines, as typos, misspellings, and inexact searches are commonplace.

{{w|Missile silos}} are often thought to be the first targeting priority in event of a nuclear strike, in hopes of preventing retaliation from the target. If a list of potential nuclear missile targets were stored, and a fuzzy search was looking for "missile silos", the {{w|Missal of Silos}} would most likely be returned as a result and could be made a target.

In Christianity, a {{w|missal}} is a priest's book of instructions, texts and music for the proper celebration of {{w|Mass (liturgy|Mass}}. The Missal of Silos is an 11th-century missal from the {{w|Abbey of Santo Domingo de Silos}} in northern {{w|Spain}}; it is famous for being the oldest known {{w|paper}} document in Europe, written at a time when the usual writing material was {{w|parchment}}.

{{w|Cheyenne Mountain}} is a mountain in {{w|Colorado}}, which houses an underground compound (aptly named the {{w|Cheyenne Mountain Complex}}) designed to withstand a nuclear strike, armed with missiles of their own. {{w|Cheyenne, Wyoming}}, on the other hand, is the capital of {{w|Wyoming}}. The residents of Cheyenne, Wyoming would prefer their town not to be the target of a nuclear attack because of confusion with Cheyenne Mountain{{Citation needed}}. However, {{w|F. E. Warren Air Force Base}} is close to Cheyenne. F. E. Warren is home to a wing of {{w|Minuteman III}} {{w|intercontinental ballistic missiles}}. Presumably it is every bit as much of a target as Cheyenne Mountain.

==Trivia==
The transcript of the Wikipedia article shown on the comic is accurate to the [https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Missal_of_Silos&oldid=857775302 revision made on 2 September 2018], but is dramatically different from the article today; this is because a spurt of editing took place on Wikipedia on the day of the comic, since xkcd and Wikipedia editing have similar target demographics.

This "xkcd-Wikipedia effect" has happened before. One other example of this revolved around [[878: Model Rail]], in which the alt-text mentioned that the debate over the title of the HO/H0 system was disturbingly long, and "coincidentally", the talk page debate got a little longer on that very day.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:'''Missal of Silos'''
:<small>From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</small>
:The {{w|Missal}} of Silos is the oldest known {{w|paper}} document created in the Christian West; it is 11th century in date.[1]
:The missal is held in the library of the {{w|Monastery of Santo Domingo de Silos}} near {{w|Burgos, Spain}}. It is one of a number of liturgical manuscripts...

:[Caption below the panel:]
:Spain would like to remind everyone not to use fuzzy string matching in their nuclear strike target lists.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Wikipedia]]

1912: Thermostat

2018-12-12T12:04:29Z

162.158.114.100:

{{comic
| number = 1912
| date = November 6, 2017
| title = Thermostat
| image = thermostat.png
| titletext = Your problem is so terrible, I worry that, if I help you, I risk drawing the attention of whatever god of technology inflicted it on you.
}}

==Explanation==

[[Hairy]] is working at a tech support office, and receives a call from [[Cueball]]. After the scripted greeting, Cueball, who [[1084|has the]] [[1586|most bizarre]] [[1700|tech issues]] (see generally [[:Category:Cueball Computer Problems|Cueball Computer Problems]]), tells Hairy that his thermostat – a single-purpose device used to control indoor heating and air conditioning – is showing an error screen from the {{w|Android operating system}}, and asking if he wants to partition the volume. The Android error seems to imply that it is trying to mount a file with {{w|.doc}} extension (likely a [[1459|Microsoft Word document]]) as the {{w|Boot_device|boot device}}. An added twist is the "(1)" in the filename, which is commonly appended when a user attempts to copy a file into a directory that already has a file with the same name. Furthermore, the extension {{w|.docx}} has been the default option from Microsoft Office 2007 onwards rather than the earlier .doc extension used in the comic, implying that the file is likely a rather old one.

The error message suggests a system problem at a low level of the device. Not only is the operating system missing, but the device is trying to locate the operating system inside a Microsoft Word document, something that has little to do with regulation of temperature and probably has no way of getting onto the device in the first place, let alone being considered as a bootable file.

This is so abnormal that Hairy is briefly struck silent and, upon recovering, he suggests Cueball {{tvtropes|SuicideBySea|walk into the sea}} as a form of suicide, rather than try to solve the issue.

The title text elaborates that the situation is so absurd that it must be divine punishment, so Hairy does not want to try and help him for fear of invoking the wrath of whatever deity is issuing it. An example of such reasoning in literary culture can be found in the character of {{w|Aeolus_(son_of_Hippotes)|Aeolus}} in the ''{{w|Odyssey}}'', who, having made an unsuccessful attempt to assist {{w|Odysseus}} by giving him a bag containing unfavorable winds, refused to provide further assistance on the grounds that the gods were clearly hostile to Odysseus.

Part of the humor is in the problem being only a slight exaggeration of real software issues. The symptoms are unlikely, yet possible (a thermostat could be running Android and could generate a report as a .doc file; given some data corruption, the name of the .doc file could get into the boot script and a volume could appear unpartitioned). It would take an expert Android or Unix engineer to fix, particularly on an embedded device with no obvious way to connect remotely or attach a keyboard. In real life, it would probably be easier to just replace an embedded device whose software was this broken.

This is explored further in [[2083: Laptop Issues]] where throwing Cueball into the ocean is mentioned. Both comics could explain the original "computer problem link to oceans" comic [[349: Success]].

==Transcript==
:[Hairy, with a headset on, is sitting in an office chair at a desk with his hands ready on the keyboard of his computer.]
:Hairy: Tech support, how can I help you?

:[Cueball is on his smartphone while looking at a small blinking panel on the wall in front of him.]
:Cueball: The little LCD on my thermostat says <span style="font-size:90%">''Error: Android system recovery: Unrecognized boot volume "/MONTHLY ENERGY REPORT (1).DOC"</span>

:[In a frame-less beat panel Hairy just stares at his screen with his hands on his lap.]

:[Back to Cueball, now with Hairy's reply coming from the smartphone in a box with a jagged arrow pointing to the smartphone.]
:Cueball: It's asking if I want to partition the volume. What should I do?
:Hairy (on the phone): Have you tried walking into the sea.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Computers]]
[[Category:Cueball Computer Problems]]

Talk:1957: 2018 CVE List

2018-02-19T08:20:47Z

162.158.114.100:

[[First]] post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Anyway, the explanation looks like a train wreck, and I'm not sure if a rearranging it into a table or just adding bullet points to everything is better. I'm guessing that a table would be better, but I don't know how I can rearrange it. Can somebody help? [[User:Herobrine|Herobrine]] ([[User talk:Herobrine|talk]]) 06:35, 19 February 2018 (UTC)
: Added a table layout to the [[explain_xkcd:Sandbox|sandbox]]. Might be of some use to another editor. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.45|162.158.74.45]] 07:32, 19 February 2018 (UTC)

Never ever have I heard anyone pronounce SQL as "sequel" - Is that a reqional dialect? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.93.15|162.158.93.15]] 07:41, 19 February 2018 (UTC)
: I heard it's common among MS-SQL users.--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.137|162.158.91.137]] 08:02, 19 February 2018 (UTC)
:: Oh BTW, look at our IPs. Are you an easybell customer? :-) --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.137|162.158.91.137]] 08:09, 19 February 2018 (UTC)

I want to take a moment to congratulate the dedication of whomever wrote the original explanation. Second languages are hard, bro. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.10|108.162.215.10]] 07:48, 19 February 2018 (UTC)

Has someone tried contacting Randall about "extploit"? If not, what would be the best way? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.114.100|162.158.114.100]] 08:20, 19 February 2018 (UTC)

1950: Chicken Pox and Name Statistics

2018-02-08T10:50:50Z

162.158.114.100: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1950
| date = February 2, 2018
| title = Chicken Pox and Name Statistics
| image = chicken_pox_and_name_statistics.png
| titletext = People with all six of those names agree that it's weird that we have teeth, when you think about it for too long. Just about everyone agrees on that, except—in a still-unexplained statistical anomaly—people named "Trevor."
}}

{{incomplete|No mention of title text in explanation.}}
==Explanation==

This comic uses Munroe's often-demonstrated love of statistics to point out some non-intuitive correlations. The first panel sketches out the prevalence of chicken pox by age in the United States. Chicken pox (or varicella) is a highly contagious viral illness that typically causes an outbreak of itchy blisters across the entire body. Most patients recover after a week or so, though some people experience chronic recurrences and serious complications are possible. As the graph indicates, prior to the introduction of the varicella vaccine in the United States, it was an exceptionally common childhood illness, with almost 100% of the population experiencing it at some point. The illness is highly memorable (since the symptoms last for days and are intensely uncomfortable) and noticeable (since the characteristic blisters are distinctive and difficult to hide), meaning that it was once a common experience that people expected to both experience and see in their peers. As the vaccine became widespread in the US, rates of varicella infection declined dramatically, and new infections are now relatively uncommon in the United States. The graph points out that this has led to a fundamental shift in experiences by age. For an American over the age of 30, nearly all your peers growing up would have had chicken pox. For an American under the age of 10, virtually none of them would have had it. This means that older people are likely to think of chicken pox as a normal part of life, while children are likely to have no experience with it, and may not even know what it is.

The second, seemingly unrelated graph, charts the popularity of certain name over time, in the US. It's normal and expected for certain names to rise and fall in popularity over time, which means that the number of people with those names ends up clustered by age. The names "Sarah" and "Brian" have gone from being highly popular to relatively uncommon for new babies, meaning that people with those names are much likelier to be older. Names like "Logan", "Brooklyn", "Jaxon" and "Harper" went from being virtually unused to having a spurt of popularity, meaning that (as of 2018) people with those names are much more likely to be under the age of 15 than over it.

The final panel points out that these trends, taken together, generate the interesting effect that you can, in some cases, estimate the odds of someone having had chicken pox, based solely on their first name. Having a name like "Brian" or "Sarah" raises the odds that you're over 30, which raises the odds that you had chicken pox. People named "Harper" or "Jaxon" are almost certainly young enough to have grown up with the vaccine in broad use. These time-based trends predict both the odds of a person having had the illness personally, and the odds that they grew up in a time when infections were common and generally expected.

The cartoon demonstrates a particular type of correlative-based fallacy, i.e. what can go wrong if one attempts to draw conclusions based on a random comparison of two variables. In this case, there's a real correlation between names and the incidence of a particular disease. A superficial reading could suggest that either certain names make people prone to the disease, or that the disease, in some way, impacts a person's name. The real cause of this correlation is simply that certain trends just happen to coincide, causing them to statistically correlate without either variable having a real causal affect on the other.

The citations are real articles. The first citation ''DOI:10.15585/mmwr.mm6534a4'' is on the Center for Disease Control web site at [https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/wr/mm6534a4.htm] and the second citation ''DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.05.050'' is an article in Vaccine at [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X12007761?via%3Dihub]. Both articles describe the effects of the vaccine for varicella which is the virus that causes chicken pox and shingles (also known as herpes zoster).

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[The comic is divided into three vertical frames, and a caption.]

:[Title of the first panel:]
:Fraction of kids your age who got chicken pox
:(Very rough US estimates based on DOI:10.15585/mmwr.mm6534a4 and DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.05.050)
:[A graph is shown with the y-axis ranging from 0 to 100% and the x-axis labeled "Your age:" ranging from 5 to 35. The percentage is close to 0 for ages below 15 and close to 100 for ages above 30.]
:[Arrow pointing at the graph:]
:Vaccine introduced in 1995

:[Title of the second panel:]
:Relative popularity of several names in your age group
:(Source: ssa.gov)
:[A graph is shown with the x-axis labeled "Your age:" ranging from 5 to 35. The graph lists Harper, Sarah, Jaxon, Brian, Brooklyn and Logan. Sarah and Brian are more popular names for older age groups.]

:[Title of the third panel:]
:Chicken pox incidence by name:
:(Very rough estimate)
:: Brian: 75%
:: Sarah: 50%
:: Logan: 20%
:: Brooklyn: 10%
:: Jaxon: 4%
:: Harper: 2%

:[Caption below the panels:]
:Fun Fact: People named "Sarah" and "Brian" think chicken pox is normal and common, and people named "Logan" and "Harper" do not.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Fun fact]]

Talk:1952: Backpack Decisions

2018-02-07T19:38:07Z

162.158.114.100: 💩

Great, now I can't decide how to write the transcript [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.40|108.162.216.40]] 15:00, 7 February 2018 (UTC)

And I now want a new backpack. I'm fine with the one I have, but *I want a new one dammit!* But I can't decide which one [[User:Jdluk|Jdluk]] ([[User talk:Jdluk|talk]]) 15:08, 7 February 2018 (UTC)

The knapsack optimization problem is famous for being NP-hard ([[wikipedia:Knapsack problem|Knapsack problem]]). Seems to be an allusion to it. Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.191|162.158.91.191]] 15:53, 7 February 2018 (UTC)
: Nope, see below. The knapsack problem is about optimizing the amount of stuff put into something, while Cueball goes through a [[wikipedia:buying decision process|buying decision process]]. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.114.100|162.158.114.100]] 17:49, 7 February 2018 (UTC)

This comic is an illustration of the [[wikipedia:law of triviality|law of triviality]] aka the bike-shed effect. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.114.100|162.158.114.100]] 17:42, 7 February 2018 (UTC)

: I don't believe the bike-shed effect is related, since that would imply that he is focusing on unimportant issues instead of important ones. In this case, the problem is trying to satisfy a number of important needs that are not fully met by any one backpack, forcing him to decide which can be left unsatisfied by any particular backpack. [[User:Ianrbibtitlht|Ianrbibtitlht]] ([[User talk:Ianrbibtitlht|talk]]) 18:59, 7 February 2018 (UTC)

:: Yes, you are right. I had the comparison chart in mind and incorrectly connected the dots here. The correct description of the situation is of course [[wikipedia:analysis paralysis|analysis paralysis]]. Snap decisions apparently aren't infallible, either. :P [[Special:Contributions/162.158.114.100|162.158.114.100]] 19:38, 7 February 2018 (UTC)

Talk:1952: Backpack Decisions

2018-02-07T17:49:52Z

162.158.114.100: +comment

Talk:1952: Backpack Decisions

2018-02-07T17:42:14Z

162.158.114.100: bike-shed effect