explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:2427: Perseverance Microphones

2021-02-20T21:29:11Z

162.158.63.196:

Thank you, Galaktos, for the explanation. I knew all the events and words already, but you put them together for me so that Randall's intent became clearer to me. Kudos. [[User:JohnB|JohnB]] ([[User talk:JohnB|talk]]) 22:26, 19 February 2021 (UTC)

: I mean, I just thought I’d write a first version and later someone would rewrite it, but apparently it’s been good enough so far :D --[[User:Galaktos|Galaktos]] ([[User talk:Galaktos|talk]]) 22:48, 19 February 2021 (UTC)

:: I read it through several times utterly happy with how I found it, but decided to add a ''little'' bit about the actual Terror. It ended up less snappy, unfortunately. Hope it doesn't smother the rest. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.105.134|141.101.105.134]] 00:24, 20 February 2021 (UTC)

: I've added a little bit about the audio. I'm not sure there's much more to add to this, given it's a (well-executed) one shot joke and there's content elsewhere about Mars Rovers etc?

None of the explanations for screaming look very believable to me, yet we made up a lot of them. There are other explanations where, if you have the relevant experience, it's very obvious that the explainer made their explanation up. I wonder if it would be good to have a way to indicate in-article that a part of the joke didn't actually strike home for any of the editors so far, and there might be a domain of expertise missing in the authorship. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.63.196|162.158.63.196]] 21:29, 20 February 2021 (UTC)

2427: Perseverance Microphones

2021-02-20T21:27:19Z

162.158.63.196: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2427
| date = February 19, 2021
| title = Perseverance Microphones
| image = perseverance_microphones.png
| titletext = If the first audio they downlink is from the descent, we probably won't be able to hear anything over the sound of the rover screaming.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a MUSICAL ROVER. Explanation of the title text is missing. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

A play on several meanings of the words "sample" and "return". The day before this comic was published, NASA successfully landed a new rover, {{w|Perseverance (rover)|''Perseverance''}}, on Mars; part of its mission is to collect Martian samples (bits of rock and dust) and leave them where a future mission can retrieve them and return them to Earth. “{{w|Sampling (music)|Samples}}” can also refer to short snippets of music; as ''Perseverance'' is the first Mars rover to carry microphones, it would be possible to use ''samples'' from those microphones musically, e.g. using a {{w|Loop (music)#Modern looping|looper pedal}}, which lets a musician play short samples of music and then repeats them back live as if it were another musician. Using a loop pedal would make sense if the sample includes a tune that repeats throughout the song—or that could repeat throughout the song. This is similar to [[411: Techno]].

The title text {{w|Anthropomorphism|anthropomorphises}} the rover, suggesting that the drop to the surface was so frightening for it that it was screaming as it descends. This is something electric guitars and crowds do, but notably when you get a microphone too close to an amplifier the samples of sound are returned so fast and close that it produces a deafening whine. Additionally when you are flying through an atmosphere the impact of the atmosphere on audio equipment is likely to drown out any other sound unless the audio equipment is heavily protected for the fall.

The phase of entry, for Mars landers, has been dubbed the "Seven Minutes Of Terror" - though this is less for the sake of the lander; more for the nail-biting of those in their control room back on Earth, utterly powerless to make any useful corrections to a craft that is tens of millions of miles/kilometres away. The round-trip communication delay significantly exceeds the whole of the passage through the thin atmosphere, so they have to rely on whatever pre-arranged autonomy they engineered and programmed into their craft beforehand, and hope they {{w|List_of_missions_to_Mars#Missions|anticipated all eventualities}}.

[https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-perseverance-rover-sends-sneak-peek-of-mars-landing/ You can view the landing here.]

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

: [Megan is sitting at a desk, typing on her laptop, which is connected to an audio mixer on the floor.]
: Megan: Perseverance's microphones are active! Downlinking audio!
: [Cueball is standing on the other side of the box, holding an electric guitar, which is plugged into the box, and standing with one foot on a small box on the floor, which is also connected.]
: Cueball: I'm ready with the looper pedal.
: [Caption below the panel:]
: The first Mars sample return

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Mars rovers]]
[[Category:Music]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Puns]]

2427: Perseverance Microphones

2021-02-20T21:24:12Z

162.158.63.196: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2427
| date = February 19, 2021
| title = Perseverance Microphones
| image = perseverance_microphones.png
| titletext = If the first audio they downlink is from the descent, we probably won't be able to hear anything over the sound of the rover screaming.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a MUSICAL ROVER. Explanation of the title text is missing. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

A play on several meanings of the words "sample" and "return". The day before this comic was published, NASA successfully landed a new rover, {{w|Perseverance (rover)|''Perseverance''}}, on Mars; part of its mission is to collect Martian samples (bits of rock and dust) and leave them where a future mission can retrieve them and return them to Earth. “{{w|Sampling (music)|Samples}}” can also refer to short snippets of music; as ''Perseverance'' is the first Mars rover to carry microphones, it would be possible to use ''samples'' from those microphones musically, e.g. using a {{w|Loop (music)#Modern looping|looper pedal}}, which lets a musician play short samples of music and then repeats them back live as if it were another musician. Using a loop pedal would make sense if the sample includes a tune that repeats throughout the song—or that could repeat throughout the song. This is similar to [[411: Techno]].

The title text {{w|Anthropomorphism|anthropomorphises}} the rover, suggesting that the drop to the surface was so frightening for it that it was screaming as it descends. This is something electric guitars and crowds do, but notably when you get a microphone too close to an amplifier the samples of sound are returned so fast and close that it produces a deafening whine.

The phase of entry, for Mars landers, has been dubbed the "Seven Minutes Of Terror" - though this is less for the sake of the lander; more for the nail-biting of those in their control room back on Earth, utterly powerless to make any useful corrections to a craft that is tens of millions of miles/kilometres away. The round-trip communication delay significantly exceeds the whole of the passage through the thin atmosphere, so they have to rely on whatever pre-arranged autonomy they engineered and programmed into their craft beforehand, and hope they {{w|List_of_missions_to_Mars#Missions|anticipated all eventualities}}.

[https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-perseverance-rover-sends-sneak-peek-of-mars-landing/ You can view the landing here.]

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

: [Megan is sitting at a desk, typing on her laptop, which is connected to an audio mixer on the floor.]
: Megan: Perseverance's microphones are active! Downlinking audio!
: [Cueball is standing on the other side of the box, holding an electric guitar, which is plugged into the box, and standing with one foot on a small box on the floor, which is also connected.]
: Cueball: I'm ready with the looper pedal.
: [Caption below the panel:]
: The first Mars sample return

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Mars rovers]]
[[Category:Music]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Puns]]

2427: Perseverance Microphones

2021-02-20T21:22:44Z

162.158.63.196: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2427
| date = February 19, 2021
| title = Perseverance Microphones
| image = perseverance_microphones.png
| titletext = If the first audio they downlink is from the descent, we probably won't be able to hear anything over the sound of the rover screaming.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a MUSICAL ROVER. Explanation of the title text is missing. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

A play on several meanings of the words "sample" and "return". The day before this comic was published, NASA successfully landed a new rover, {{w|Perseverance (rover)|''Perseverance''}}, on Mars; part of its mission is to collect Martian samples (bits of rock and dust) and leave them where a future mission can retrieve them and return them to Earth. “{{w|Sampling (music)|Samples}}” can also refer to short snippets of music; as ''Perseverance'' is the first Mars rover to carry microphones, it would be possible to use ''samples'' from those microphones musically, e.g. using a {{w|Loop (music)#Modern looping|looper pedal}}, which lets a musician play short samples of music and then repeats them back live as if it were another musician. Using a loop pedal would make sense if the sample includes a tune that repeats throughout the song—or that could repeat throughout the song. This is similar to [[411: Techno]].

The title text {{w|Anthropomorphism|anthropomorphises}} the rover, suggesting that the drop to the surface was so frightening for it that it was screaming as it descends.

The phase of entry, for Mars landers, has been dubbed the "Seven Minutes Of Terror" - though this is less for the sake of the lander; more for the nail-biting of those in their control room back on Earth, utterly powerless to make any useful corrections to a craft that is tens of millions of miles/kilometres away. The round-trip communication delay significantly exceeds the whole of the passage through the thin atmosphere, so they have to rely on whatever pre-arranged autonomy they engineered and programmed into their craft beforehand, and hope they {{w|List_of_missions_to_Mars#Missions|anticipated all eventualities}}.

[https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-perseverance-rover-sends-sneak-peek-of-mars-landing/ You can view the landing here.]

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

: [Megan is sitting at a desk, typing on her laptop, which is connected to an audio mixer on the floor.]
: Megan: Perseverance's microphones are active! Downlinking audio!
: [Cueball is standing on the other side of the box, holding an electric guitar, which is plugged into the box, and standing with one foot on a small box on the floor, which is also connected.]
: Cueball: I'm ready with the looper pedal.
: [Caption below the panel:]
: The first Mars sample return

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Mars rovers]]
[[Category:Music]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Puns]]

2427: Perseverance Microphones

2021-02-20T21:20:38Z

162.158.63.196: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2427
| date = February 19, 2021
| title = Perseverance Microphones
| image = perseverance_microphones.png
| titletext = If the first audio they downlink is from the descent, we probably won't be able to hear anything over the sound of the rover screaming.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a MUSICAL ROVER. Explanation of the title text is missing. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

A play on several meanings of the words "sample" and "return". The day before this comic was published, NASA successfully landed a new rover, {{w|Perseverance (rover)|''Perseverance''}}, on Mars; part of its mission is to collect Martian samples (bits of rock and dust) and leave them where a future mission can retrieve them and return them to Earth. “{{w|Sampling (music)|Samples}}” can also refer to short snippets of music; as ''Perseverance'' is the first Mars rover to carry microphones, it would be possible to use ''samples'' from those microphones musically, e.g. using a {{w|Loop (music)#Modern looping|looper pedal}}. Using a loop pedal would make sense if the sample includes a tune that repeats throughout the song—or that could repeat throughout the song. This is similar to [[411: Techno]].

The title text {{w|Anthropomorphism|anthropomorphises}} the rover, suggesting that the drop to the surface was so frightening for it that it was screaming as it descends.

The phase of entry, for Mars landers, has been dubbed the "Seven Minutes Of Terror" - though this is less for the sake of the lander; more for the nail-biting of those in their control room back on Earth, utterly powerless to make any useful corrections to a craft that is tens of millions of miles/kilometres away. The round-trip communication delay significantly exceeds the whole of the passage through the thin atmosphere, so they have to rely on whatever pre-arranged autonomy they engineered and programmed into their craft beforehand, and hope they {{w|List_of_missions_to_Mars#Missions|anticipated all eventualities}}.

[https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-perseverance-rover-sends-sneak-peek-of-mars-landing/ You can view the landing here.]

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

: [Megan is sitting at a desk, typing on her laptop, which is connected to an audio mixer on the floor.]
: Megan: Perseverance's microphones are active! Downlinking audio!
: [Cueball is standing on the other side of the box, holding an electric guitar, which is plugged into the box, and standing with one foot on a small box on the floor, which is also connected.]
: Cueball: I'm ready with the looper pedal.
: [Caption below the panel:]
: The first Mars sample return

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Mars rovers]]
[[Category:Music]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Puns]]

Talk:2417: 1/1,000th Scale World

2021-01-28T23:09:56Z

162.158.63.196: /* Girl in the background */

Just for reference: the maths to scale down the Niagara Falls flow an convert from cubic feet to cubic centimeters:
<pre>
> 1e5*(.3048)^3*1000^2/(1e3)^3
[1] 2.831685
> 1e5*(.3048)^3*1000^2/(1e3)^3/2
[1] 1.415842
</pre>
American editors may want to adapt the formulas to add the numbers in cubic inches.--[[User:Pere prlpz|Pere prlpz]] ([[User talk:Pere prlpz|talk]]) 18:29, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

do we have a category for these small scale world comics if not we might want to discuss that. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.246|162.158.75.246]] 18:51, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

Based on the original Star Trek canon, I believe it more than reasonable to say that all of the Enterprises would be able to operate at least partially submerged, but I would be very worried about a scale aircraft carrier breaking in two if lifted. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.115|162.158.62.115]] 20:56, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

Tensile/shear strength works on cross-section, so would be proportional to the square of the scale, not the cube. A scaled-down Golden Gate Bridge would only support a millionth of the full load, not a billionth, so the proportional load is only 0.3 of a person. (And it basically wouldn't have to support itself, which, as it turns out, takes care of most of the remaining part.) --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.183.117|162.158.183.117]] 22:07, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

Neutrino Detector/Observatory seem to be 2 different things? one under an icesheet, one in tunnels? Some light should be shed on what they are, where they are, wether the ice sheet is to scale, etc. Also why the implication of the neutrino detector being functional ("The fact that people are not supposed to create false positives implies that the neutrino detector is functional.") - also: The no hot stuff on the ice could be just about not melting the ice and therefore destroying the model, instead of messing with the detectors... --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 06:25, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

Only particles that travel faster than the speed of light (in ice) will emmit Cherenkov light, so the part about the "hot objects" is incorrect. What is shown here is the IceCube observatory, whose main detector part are the "strings" with "DOMs" buried deep down in the ice (between about 1500m and 2500m below the surface) --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.69.213|141.101.69.213]] 08:45, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

I find that the zeppelin part doesn't make much sense (in the comic, not the explanation) as modern zeppelins are filled with helium rather than hydrogen... even "classic" zeppelins were filled with helium if available. The resaon for the Hindenburg not being filled with helium but hydrogen was a ban on helium exports by the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LZ_129_Hindenburg#Use_of_hydrogen_instead_of_helium [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 09:04, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

Would have been interesting if he had put a shipwreck on the ocean floor next to Cueball with the warning/reminder, "Do not try to raise the Titanic." [[User:RAGBRAIvet|RAGBRAIvet]] ([[User talk:RAGBRAIvet|talk]]) 09:46, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

In the upper left corner of the comic there is a girl with a "Mickey Mouse" and perhaps cornrows hairstyle. Is she black? Does Randal have other black characters in any of the comics?
[[User:Punchcard|Punchcard]] ([[User talk:Punchcard|talk]])
:I thought that was Science Girl...looks like her in [[1058]]. [[User:Danish|Danish]] ([[User talk:Danish|talk]]) 15:35, 28 January 2021 (UTC)
== Order of comics ==

I wonder why he posted this one after the 1/10,000 and 1/100,000 comics instead of publishing them in order. My thought is maybe he worked on them simultaneously but this one wasn't ready, or maybe he made this one because he felt the response to the previous two was positive. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.68.11|172.69.68.11]] 23:50, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

== Small planes ==

I was fascinated by the east/west layers shown under "Watch for small planes". I assume this is in reference to actual US FAA and/or global practices? And of course the next question that occurs to me is what about planes flying due north or due south? Can anyone fill in some notes on this? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.18|108.162.245.18]] 01:12, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

:Global. Well, not entirely universal, but common for lot of countries. See {{w|Flight level#Semicircular/hemispheric_rule|Semicircular Flight Level rule}}. Apparently, New Zealand, Italy and Portugal prefer to divide by North/South but most countries use West/East. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 01:34, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

:Any aircraft with a heading from 0° to 179° is considered to be flying "east", and one with a heading anywhere from 180° to 359° is considered to be flying west. (Headings get rounded to nearest degree, so nobody flies at 359.5°.) Traffic headed east flies at odd flight levels (31,000 ft, 33,000 ft, etc.) while traffic heading west flies at even flight levels (30,000 ft, 32,000 ft, etc.) -- [[Special:Contributions/172.68.174.132|172.68.174.132]] 03:38, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

==Girl in the background==
I don't get the girl sitting at top left. What is she sitting on?
:It's the {{w|Antarctic ice sheet}}. Big, innit? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.76.20|141.101.76.20]] 22:27, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

::But why is she up in the atmosphere?

Talk:1608: Hoverboard

2021-01-24T21:03:23Z

162.158.63.196:

Well, this will be the next incomplete explanation for a while. -[[Special:Contributions/162.158.90.165|162.158.90.165]] 21:58, 24 November 2015 (UTC)
:Still working on it now four months later. But not many other helping with it. ;-) Getting closer to the end though with the [[1608:_Hoverboard#Table_with_references|table]] in place. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 14:10, 26 March 2016 (UTC)
::It’s done! Rejoice

Yes, one thing to note is how to get the hell out of the cave near the volcano [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.159|108.162.249.159]] 22:38, 24 November 2015 (UTC)

The image is made up of small images with addresses of the form http://xkcd.com/1608/XXXX:-YYYY+s.png (although not every coordinate inside the bounds has an image associated). A script could probably dump out all the images and paste them together. --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.6|108.162.216.6]] 22:46, 24 November 2015 (UTC)

West -- Under Lava Pools -- Elon Musk's Secret Volcano Base (not as enjoyable as you might expect).

The Starship out east contains, among other things, Darth Vader, apparently explaining Steven Universe to a subordinate. (Steven and the Crystal Gems can be found a the west end of the ship, near an ice cream cooler.) The same ship contains an elaborate homage to the original Prince of Persia. {{unsigned ip|162.158.56.5}}

There, have at thee an image! [[User:Arch-TK|Arch-TK]] ([[User talk:Arch-TK|talk]]) 22:58, 24 November 2015 (UTC)

"teleport to next coin" code doesn't work[[User:(insert name here)|(insert name here)]] ([[User talk:(insert name here)|talk]]) 14:47, 21 June 2019 (UTC)

There are 168 coins spread throughout the map according to the source code [[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.53|173.245.54.53]] 23:03, 24 November 2015 (UTC)
:It's actually 169 coins (t.length). --[[Special:Contributions/188.114.111.129|188.114.111.129]] 23:22, 24 November 2015 (UTC)

May I change the code for the display distance and direction thing to make the colors more appealing? I want to cheat but I don't want to stare at that yucky green the whole time. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.170.88|172.69.170.88]] 17:44, 20 June 2019 (UTC)

When using a device, instead of saying "use arrow keys to move", it says "tilt to move, tap to jump". It's also a lot harder to control. {{unsigned ip|108.162.250.159}}
:What kind of device and is this through the normal xkcd home page? It does not work on my tablet by going to xkcd (anroid, leonov tablet). --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 17:24, 16 December 2015 (UTC)

I got 153 coins!! :D There's two starships, one's a star destroyer with an expansive maze dropping regular torpedoes on the other. May be noteworthy that there are various references to Star Wars and Steven Universe throughout. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.221.13|108.162.221.13]] 23:27, 24 November 2015 (UTC)

The second starship is the TantiveIV, Leia's ship at the beginning of episode 4. Note directly below the Tantive, the terrain seems to be sand dunes. Also there are two more space ships by the volcano; an X-wing at a gas station and an Apollo Command Module. {{unsigned ip|108.162.216.24}}

https://xkcd.com/1608/tigl.js - Looks like there's an easier to read version of the code there. Maybe that'll help someone with extracting all the images. {{unsigned ip|

I've got all the images downloaded. Zipping/uploading now. Should I post a link here when complete or what's the best way to share these? I'm also working on setting up a zoomable map. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.53|173.245.54.53]] 23:57, 24 November 2015 (UTC)

The collision detection is glitchy. I keep landing/bumping against platforms I'm far away from. Is getting stuck against walls normal? --[[Special:Contributions/199.27.130.234|199.27.130.234]] 00:01, 25 November 2015 (UTC)
:Yes, getting stuck against walls is normal. If the wall has at least 1 pixel sticking out under the hoverboard, then that pixel will be treated as the floor, and the hoverboard will stop falling. This is easier to see in goggles mode.[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.118|108.162.216.118]] 13:15, 29 October 2016 (UTC)

Tiles are located here in a zip: https://up1.ca/#Gi51KPFyPRELe0T1D6q9Mw All I did was iterate over http://xkcd.com/1608/X:-Y+s.png from X=[916...1116] and Y=[916...1116]. I'm working on putting a zoomable map together. If anyone has interest in helping we could hop on IRC? [[User:Jcox|Jcox]] ([[User talk:Jcox|talk]]) 00:15, 25 November 2015 (UTC)
:This was great. But the zip file misses all images in column 1019-1021 as well as the 6 lowest images of 1022 (X coordinates 1019-1022, all Y coordinatesin the first three and then 6 lowest Y coordinates in the last). It was managable to download the last with my click skills. So thanks anyway. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 20:15, 28 December 2015 (UTC)

I've written a zsh script to iterate over all possible tiles (does anyone know the height limits? the source only gives the left and right limits) and glue them together into one giant file. I'll upload the results as soon as it's finished. [[User:Arch-TK|Arch-TK]] ([[User talk:Arch-TK|talk]]) 00:17, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

I don't think it's limited vertically at all. I found a zoomable map on the reddit topic http://codepen.io/KyleDavidE/full/605dc87b614ff6b2bd716f4c6f640203/ (by kyledavide) [[User:Miraries|Miraries]] ([[User talk:Miraries|talk]]) 00:21, 25 November 2015 (UTC)Mirages

Here's a zoomed out map of all the game area: https://i.imgur.com/rNU9ZgN.png. From ''luke_in_the_sky'' at Reddit [https://www.reddit.com/r/xkcd/comments/3u4sy1/xkcd_1608_hoverboard/cxc1245]. --[[Special:Contributions/188.114.111.129|188.114.111.129]] 00:35, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

Alright, the full png of the entire map is almost finished, I should have used white tiles as blank tiles but I guess I can fix that up in gimp, and I'm not sure how to account for the 1 pixel overlap with just imagemagick convert. The last step is to merge allthe layer images into one giant image, wish my laptop the best of luck! [[User:Arch-TK|Arch-TK]] ([[User talk:Arch-TK|talk]]) 01:00, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

Someone beat you to it, but keep on it: that one doesn't have right limit tiles. https://www.reddit.com/r/xkcd/comments/3u4sy1/xkcd_1608_hoverboard/cxc0p8x --[[Special:Contributions/188.114.111.129|188.114.111.129]] 01:19, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

Perhaps we can change the screenshot at the top to this? It's a quickly hacked overview of the entire map: http://imgur.com/Mz9arHz [[Special:Contributions/199.27.129.167|199.27.129.167]] 01:27, 25 November 2015 (UTC)
: I think it might make more sense to just add it as another image, mediawiki supports this after all. The syntax should be: <nowiki>[[File:filename.png|thumb|Subtitle|alt=alt]]</nowiki> [[User:Arch-TK|Arch-TK]] ([[User talk:Arch-TK|talk]]) 01:34, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

[http://files.mckaysalisbury.com/xkcd/hoverboard.html] This one loads all of the images quickly (From the xkcd site), and uses browser zooming. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.47|173.245.54.47]] 01:29, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

:The impassible backgrounds are RGB(0,0,0), and the passable ones are RGB(1,1,1). <code>#explore > :first-child {filter:brightness(30);-webkit-filter:brightness(30);-moz-filter:brightness(30);-o-filter:brightness(30);-ms-filter:brightness(30);}</code> ... See https://twitter.com/BadPhysics/status/669354631869304832 [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.155|108.162.249.155]] 03:40, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

Here are all the secret passages marked I could find: http://imgur.com/a/fKE1Q --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.220|162.158.91.220]] 00:50, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

I wrote a tampermonkey script that shows you your coordinates and lets you teleport; will make coordinate sharing a lot easier. You do need tampermonkey installed for this to work. [https://github.com/minerguy31/xkcd-hoverboard-mod/raw/master/XKCD%20Hoverboard%20Mod.user.js Click to install] [[User:Minerguy31|Minerguy31]] ([[User talk:Minerguy31|talk]]) 04:17, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

I got 159 coins without the map. If you guys are still wondering how to escape the volcano, move to the right for as long as you think you can, then start spamming the up key while switching between holding the left and right keys. It worked for me on my first try.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.252.119|162.158.252.119]] 07:06, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

164 coins with the map. Guessing I might've missed the cotton ball pit bottom, some others in the star destroyer, and maybe one under the volcano. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.63.196|162.158.63.196]] 21:03, 24 January 2021 (UTC)

Didn't take down the coordinates, but the layout to the first level of the original Prince of Persia is in there, including the guard standing by with his scimitar! I found it in the ship atop the pyramid east of the play area. --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.218.245|108.162.218.245]] 06:24, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

Just thought this was interesting, when you "complete" the game by dropping coins, the following line of javascript is run, which sends your result to the server (L is number of coins, z is seconds used):
(new Image).src = "//xkcd.com/events.gif?coins=" + L + "&seconds=" + z;
Don't be tricked by the .gif extension, it doesn't show an image when opened, and the server probably handles this request by logging it to somewhere. {{unsigned ip|141.101.80.87}}
:It actually returns a 1 by 1 pixel white GIF. [[User:Arch-TK|Arch-TK]] ([[User talk:Arch-TK|talk]]) 13:14, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

Is there a way that we can merge the "game" part of this comic with the map of [[1110: Click and Drag]]? Allowing us to explore that one in a similar way? [[User:Bon|Bon]] ([[User talk:Bon|talk]]) 11:03, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

Well I managed to find (nearly) everything, except the floating rock island, and 162 coins without the map, but even with looking at several maps, I didn't pass any graveyard nor found the way to the grey ocean, which I assume is underneath the "continent". Does anyone know where the entrance is? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.90.218|162.158.90.218]] 11:54, 25 November 2015 (UTC)
:Search for any missing things in the complete [[1608: Hoverboard/Transcript]], and you shall find what you seek. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 17:40, 16 December 2015 (UTC)

Just thought I should say; the comic supports some alternative movement controls, there's the arrow keys, WASD, and also the vi keys (hjkl), and the numpad (8426). [[Special:Contributions/108.162.242.125|108.162.242.125]] 13:29, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

I was not able to get to some points because they were surrounded by text, people or other objects. Is that normal, or are there tricks to get to every coin without using cheats (console)? It would be nice if this could be mention / explained in the article. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.135.35|162.158.135.35]] 13:31, 25 November 2015 (UTC)
:In some cases you can come in from the side as opposed to trying to come down through or up through something. Example: at the X-Wing "gas station", to get that coin, land on the ground to the left of the X-Wing and move to the right on the ground towards the gas station. [[User:Jarod997|Jarod997]] ([[User talk:Jarod997|talk]]) 14:45, 25 November 2015 (UTC)
::No text is solid! You can use the full [[1608: Hoverboard/Transcript]] to find out how to get to every coin and place (or the great map linked at the top). --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 17:40, 16 December 2015 (UTC)

The list of "areas" in the map would be much easier to read, and much easier to correlate with the map, if the origin were set to the starting area (that is, if the coordinates of the starting area were set to x:0, y:0). What is the reason for the very large numbers? --[[User:BlueMoonlet|BlueMoonlet]] ([[User talk:BlueMoonlet|talk]]) 15:50, 25 November 2015 (UTC)
: The large numbers are the actual ones used by the game code and displayed by the hacked-up "radar" so it was a natural choice to use them as they are. We could define some origin and count coordinates from it but we would have to agree on its position and then change the "radar" code and recalculate all coordinates written down already. -- [[Special:Contributions/162.158.90.224|162.158.90.224]] 08:53, 27 November 2015 (UTC)
::Coordinates is not very helpful to most people. It should more be in relation to the objects you pass. Either you just look at one of the maps (and then past the pyramid or in the volcano makes sense) or else you actually try the real experience, and again after the ocean comes a pyramid makes more sense than coordinates. Have moved this section to a trivia section. The table should be build differently. That is still work to be done. All things are at the moment mentioned in the complete [[1608: Hoverboard/Transcript]]. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 17:40, 16 December 2015 (UTC)

The starting area is in no way related to pac-man. The lines are not all right angles, there is a timer, there's gravity, there are no aggressors, you're collecting coins instead of pellets.... Not every line maze is pac-man. This is an erroneous reference that should be removed. --[[Special:Contributions/198.41.235.167|198.41.235.167]] 17:16, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

The source code found at https://xkcd.com/1608/tigl.js does not seem to be complete. I would personally work on de-obfuscating the full source code using the fragment found there but technically the source is covered by implicit copyright laws and that means that if I published a derived work I would be breaking those laws. Should I just change the line from "The source code can be found at ..." to "The full (obfuscated) source code can be found at ...tigl.min.js and a deobfuscated piece of the source code can be found at ...tigl.js". [[User:Arch-TK|Arch-TK]] ([[User talk:Arch-TK|talk]]) 18:28, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

I added quick coordinate / teleport access on right-click to the quick hack map. [[User:Kyledavide|Kyledavide]] ([[User talk:Kyledavide|talk]]) 20:45, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

Can't be bothered working out how to edit the page, but the explanation contains the phrase "People holding anchor lines to a Star Destroyer" - they're holding anchor lines to a CR90 Corvette, specifically the Tantive IV, commonly referred to as the "Rebel Blockade Runner", which in turn is being *attacked by* a Star Destroyer. I'll get my coat. {{unsigned ip|162.158.153.47}}

That's no 'Children's Swimming Pool', it's a ball pit! [[Special:Contributions/162.158.2.222|162.158.2.222]] 23:46, 25 November 2015 (UTC)
:If it is, it's filled with water as well. There are waves on the surface and fish live in it. -- [[Special:Contributions/162.158.90.224|162.158.90.224]] 09:00, 27 November 2015 (UTC)

I slightly improved the "direction to next coin"-code by displaying a compas. Code can be found here http://pastebin.com/PL6fv5XK . I'm new to this wiki and don't want to mess up the page, so I didn't put the code in there myself ... --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.90.209|162.158.90.209]] 00:01, 26 November 2015 (UTC)

Haven't read all the comments above so maybe someone has written about it?
If you click up it seems to count how many times. So it will just show white and then when you release again, it will take longer to hit the ground the longer you have pushed up. Tried with 100 clicks (9-10 seconds) and 200 clicks (20 seconds).
I got about 163 coins in about 15886 seconds. (4 hours and 24 minutes.) That was with breaks. It was written so shortly on the screen I did not manage to take it down for certain. But after that I read here about the 169 and found that there where at least three in the volcano I had not noticed at first. And it seems likely that there would be three more I have missed. But really fun to explore. I wrote a lot of the transcript along the way (not from the very start though) This I have now posted without any real order in the [[1608: Hoverboard/Transcript]] page. Hope fully a full and useful transcript can emerge from this. I hope my text can be used if not used as it is written at the moment.--[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 02:05, 26 November 2015 (UTC)
:Now a complete transcript... Took me about three weeks to get enough time to do that--[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 17:42, 16 December 2015 (UTC)

I thought Atreyu's horse was Artax, not Artex. [[Special:Contributions/198.41.238.32|198.41.238.32]] 05:27, 26 November 2015 (UTC)

The beret guy riding a torpedo (/explosive device of some sort) looks like a Dr. Strangeloe tribute to me. {{unsigned ip|162.158.255.39}}

Just added in the 'collision detection' section the text "On a slow connection, it's possible to move into an 'open' area and then the black image loads in and (probably permanently, without tricks) traps you immobile." To expand upon this, if this is a risk to anyone else (I'm reliant on mobile internet, being away from any comparable landline capability) then you need to look out for perfectly horizontal/vertical edges. For example, hovering up the side of the Washington monument and encountering (typically above the 'bricks' line) a completely flat top. Drifting onto that soon gets you embedded in the remaining Monument, somewhere well below the eventual tip. Alternately, drifting sideways over the landscape and discovering a perfectly vertical cliff downwards (just past the bowling pins is a prime location) tempts you to drift down it and then suddenly the solid land 'happens' around you, forcing a page-refresh and restart (though doubtless there's also various console tricks that could be used). The well, also 'opens out', but it's a lie. I've ended up trapped 'in white' below the now closed black blocks that surround the well bottom (and not found any way back up). But if there a 'texture' (like other cliffs) or 'slope' (like the real Monument edge) to the surface, you're probably Ok. It's a genuine surface or wall that you can generally navigate around without fear of being misled. (Or so is my experience.) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.152.227|162.158.152.227]] 09:12, 26 November 2015 (UTC)

Doesn't show anything but a blank page on the first generation iPad. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.184.11|162.158.184.11]] 10:41, 26 November 2015 (UTC)

I agree with [[User:Arch-TK|Arch-TK]]. I have changed the text referring to the source code, since it does not refer to the full sourde code, but just an obfuscated part.--[[User:Gamevang|Gamevang]] ([[User talk:Gamevang|talk]]) 14:36, 26 November 2015 (UTC)

I can't pass through text, anybody else experiencing this? I remember being able to pass through text without no clip mode earlier, but for some reason not anymore.--[[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.36|173.245.54.36]] 18:16, 26 November 2015 (UTC)
:I found that I can't pass through ANYTHING non-white when using current version of Chrome on an iPad iOS 9.1. Makes the "game" much harder to play. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.63.144|173.245.63.144]] 04:23, 29 November 2015 (UTC)

----

We definitely need a better presentation of interesting objects/locations and their coordinates. Now, we have quite comprehensive multi-level bullet list and a newly-started table. Neither is perfect. We need some form that will show clearly what is where and where it belongs.

Issues to solve:
* Many objects are large and a single coordinates pair simply don't describe them well. We need a clear presentation form that will allow putting both a single pair and several ones, e.g. top and bottom for thin vertical objects (e.g. poles, The Monument), four corners for objects occupying large swaths etc.
* Grouping - we need to group objects that belong to an area, like all things within the Star Destroyer etc. Multilevel bullets are ok, but how to do that in a table?
* Order - within groups and between them, we need some ordering that will organize the entries. For example left-to-right then top-to-bottom or something like that.
* Coordinates system - the "native" game coordinates are large numbers, and negative values for the y coordinate to boot. Someone proposed setting a new origin and counting from there. I think it's a good idea, but will require a firm decision, rewrite of radar code and recalculating of all coordinates written down so far.

Any ideas?
-- [[Special:Contributions/162.158.90.224|162.158.90.224]] 09:24, 27 November 2015 (UTC)
:If it weren't for so much effort put in already, I think that we ''could'' re-class features as follows:
:* All coin locations, and/or links to the locations they are associated with (e.g. "in original game area" and "carried by a quadcopter drone"), if that's not considered 'unfair' to those wanting to actually play the game (without the self-discipline not to browse the list ;).
:* Locations of all characters, certainly all stick-figures, but maybe also 'wildlife' (or automata) of notable types.
:* All monologues/dialogues/labels (albeit that this is almost entirely a subset of the prior list).
:* Other notable landscape (or structural) features that are more than mere 'flavour' (e.g. the T-shaped mushrooms/whatevers to the east, but not random ground-boulders).
:* Notable move-through spots; inclusive of 'sink-into'able waters/magmas (waist-height, neck-height, fully-submerged?), even when not featuring further hidden routes, but excluding vegetation (ground-grasses/tree-trunks) that ''mostly'' are pass-throughable.
: Some of these are themselves useful references to other items (e.g. "inside front of Blockade Runner" or "beneath eastern stretch of magma") and so can probably be sub-grouped as all items in a given structure ("coins within the initial play area", "characters/speech within the Star Destroyer") and some things do occupy a swathe (the 'play area', the Monument, the ships, the kites, with their strings; the hail of (regular) torpedoes). And I bet there's a whole lot of arguments about what level of detail we could go to... [[Special:Contributions/162.158.152.227|162.158.152.227]] 10:21, 27 November 2015 (UTC)
When you deposit 42 coins, the response, "No answers here" is a reference to "Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy."[[User:Hax|Hax]] ([[User talk:Hax|talk]])
[[Special:Contributions/162.158.252.149|162.158.252.149]] 03:33, 29 November 2015 (UTC)
::The full and complete [[1608: Hoverboard/Transcript]] that I have made uses some of the ideas, and groups the stage into sections. Not saying these should be used as is. But all in the image has been described and text transcribed in there. So it would be easy to cut and paste something from them. I have used jump height and fall time as well as time elapsed when moving and the height of the hoverboard Cueball to measure distances/dimensions. I would suggest making pictures from the maps of larger rooms or items. And then zoom in on interesting features. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 17:50, 16 December 2015 (UTC)

Where can I get the uncompressed (original) source code? The reason I am asking is, ''/tigl.js'' is incomplete (no Easter Eggs, etc.), and ''/tigl.min.js'' seems complete, but is unreadable due to "minification" (compression).

[[Special:Contributions/162.158.252.149|162.158.252.149]] 03:33, 29 November 2015 (UTC)

It's a great comic, but does anyone know what it has to do the with his new book? [[Special:Contributions/198.41.235.161|198.41.235.161]] 03:50, 30 November 2015 (UTC)

I've created desktop C++/SDL2 based version of 1608, maybe someone will find it useful: https://github.com/AMDmi3/hoverboard-sdl [[Special:Contributions/162.158.90.212|162.158.90.212]] 17:57, 30 November 2015 (UTC)

I'm not sure what the coordinates are, so I'm reluctant to add it to the page proper, but I'm pretty sure Beret Guy riding the bomb near the Tantive IV is a nod to Dr. Strangelove [[Special:Contributions/108.162.218.185|108.162.218.185]] 19:17, 30 November 2015 (UTC)

When I try to play the game on my machine (IE10, Win7), I have whole sections that are just straight lined black boxes, almost like a puzzle with pieces missing. The easiest one to find is by going to the left, the quadcopters are hovering over nothing. Is this a java issue, an IE issue, a Windows issue, or just a "shut up and reboot" issue?[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.44|108.162.216.44]] 19:19, 30 November 2015 (UTC)

You use IE? Suicide! The Department of Homeland Security considers IE as a threat. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.36|173.245.54.36]] 22:39, 30 November 2015 (UTC)

Also: If you are using IE, no matter what the problem is, it will '''always''' be an IE issue.
* Stove fire? -- IE issue
* Alien obduction? -- IE issue

[[Special:Contributions/162.158.90.187|162.158.90.187]] 12:47, 4 December 2015 (UTC)

Might be useful for exploration of the map: I have made a page that embeds hoverboard with a panel allowing you do perform various cheats and tricks. :) http://php.9kv.cu.cc/hoverboard/ [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.37|108.162.216.37]] 21:42, 1 December 2015 (UTC)

Me Again: Here's a stitched-together image of the map (taken from reddit) with the areas that you can walk through that are normally black highlighted in red: https://www.dropbox.com/s/pnstn4oam15lvgf/hoverboard-collision-map.png?raw=1 [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.37|108.162.216.37]] 22:34, 1 December 2015 (UTC)

The full transcript of the entire comic is now complete [[1608: Hoverboard/Transcript]].--[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 20:03, 15 December 2015 (UTC)
:And I just tried it out to finally get all 169 coins and explorer the entire drawing the true way without cheating, in just 1½ hours: [[1608:_Hoverboard/Screen-shots#All_169_coins]].
::And then later I took the shortest route between coins and finished in less than 25 minutes (see same link as above). Seems like I'm the only one still working to complete this comic... --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 19:39, 28 December 2015 (UTC)

Here is a page with a fully sort-able table of all the links to images: [[1608: Hoverboard/All image links|All image links]]. It includes notes on which images there are people, text, animals, objects of some interest and coins. And it is designed so connecting images can be found by sorting on either locations, general content or the first word in the description. Only 3440 images described. Although more than 1600 of them are completely black and 40 more almost completely black as well as the 800 white. But still there was close to 1000 images left... Enjoy the easy way to find interesting stuff in the images --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 23:46, 15 January 2016 (UTC)

I got 26 coins and it said "undefined" [[Special:Contributions/108.162.220.227|108.162.220.227]] 00:29, 3 March 2016 (UTC)
:You are probably using explorer, see the explanation for this above: [[1608: Hoverboard#Messages in Play Area|Messages in Play Area]]. There even is some examples like [http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/images/d/d8/45_coins.PNG this]. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 14:08, 26 March 2016 (UTC)

Good LORD, why is this still "incomplete"? If you look at the red comments in the table, they are inane and unnecessary. Half of the "Missing Explanation" entries do not even *need* an explanation as the title says exactly what it is. Can we finally close this incomplete explanation?[[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.55|173.245.54.55]] 14:13, 29 June 2016 (UTC)

Hi, but what you are saying is that some of the red text is self explanatory. However, some still needs background information. Also, like most comics, things can be read different ways so there can be alternate explanations. If you feel like you need to say something different from the explanation, just edit. There isn't anything that can't be undone with a simple undo here. [[User:Dontknow|Dontknow]] ([[User talk:Dontknow|talk]]) 04:15, 18 March 2017 (UTC)

Under "Coins", the example says that it's a lamp and a broken lamp. Isn't it a beehive and then the remains of a 'stolen' beehive? Bees buzz. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.221.84|108.162.221.84]] 13:49, 29 July 2016 (UTC)

When going through tight passages as Gandalf, rapidly changing direction can cause the game to teleport the character to the room of the Star Destroyer containing two characters swinging through the air. This has happened for me in the well, as well as the passage from Elon Musk's lair to the room containing the universal grounding rod.[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.118|108.162.216.118]] 13:15, 29 October 2016 (UTC)

; It works on iPad now!

Just noticed that it now runs on my iPad, though it lags often and the controls are awful—even if I'm tilting in the same direction, Cueball moves randomly, and sometimes he just flies in one direction, and there's no way to get him to go up or turn around. Then he gets stuck on something and you have to refresh the page... Which is quite annoying when you're looking for a certain image to explain and you have to start over from the play area. Still, it's better than nothing. [[User:Herobrine|Herobrine]] ([[User talk:Herobrine|talk]]) 03:32, 16 February 2018 (UTC)

Actually, no, the title text isn't only visible on unofficial mobile viewers. You can see it at [https://m.xkcd.com/1608 m.xkcd.com], which is very much official. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.126.34|162.158.126.34]] 03:29, 12 August 2019 (UTC)

Here follows an extensive Latin discussion:

The commentator attempts to explain the motto, "Cur ego committitur dictar latinae."

There is repeated suggestion of 'now' or 'just now' somehow arising from the text. And the commentator makes a beginner's error by suggesting that iustus/justus could be used to mean just as in, just now. English has multiple uses of just - as an adverb speaking about time or exclusivity, and as an adjective talking about right and appropriate. For instance:

Adverb time: "Well that just happened." synonyms: currently, now
Adverb exclusive: "Just do it." synonyms: only, merely
Adjective: "That was a just choice." synonyms: righteous, appropriate

Iustus (also spelled justus) is a translation of the adjectival form of English just/righteous. So the exmaple the commentator gives:
'Cur ego iustus committitur loquitur.'
Would mean:
'Why is the righteous I made to speak.'
or, if the adjective is being used as a noun:
'Why am I the righteous/just is made to speak.'

Also, committitur and loquitur in the example are both third person singular, so neither could properly connect to 'ego' (English 'I'). To make sense in the expected way, we would need to put loquo- into the first person singular form at least.

So if the commentator wants to insert the idea of 'just now' or 'currently,' I suggest they use an adverb:
1 recens, 2 jam/iam, 3 nunc, 4 iamiamque/jamjamque
1 recently, 2 now (inprecise), 3 now (this time), 4 now (at once, already, hurry it up man).

On the proper translation:
Dictus is a noun meaning word or speech, from the verb 'dico.' If you wanted to specifically imply that you were using audible words (rather than writing), you'd use the 'loquo-' base instead of 'dic-.' So dictus and dico (from dic-) mean 'words' and 'I say.'
Dicto is a rarer verb meaning I recite, I dictate, I repeat, or something similar. See:
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/dicto#Latin
The principal forms are dico, dictare, dictavi, dictatum. So we talking about a third declension verb, and the base is dicta-. Dictar would be the first person present passive imperfect. Typically that form would mean something like:
'I am being recited.'
But since a person (as a physical object) can't be spoken or recited, the meaning is probably:
'I am being caused/made/forced to recite.'
The exact nature of 'caused/made/forced' is described by the word, 'committitur.' The committ- base means commit, begin, or make happen. Committitur is the 3rd person (he/she/it) present passive indicative from:
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/committitur
Meaning:
he/she/it is made/forced to. (Has become committed.)
So:
'Cur ego committitur dictar latinae'
means:
'Why am I being made/forced to recite/dictate in Latin.'

Also, it should be noted that while the Greeks invented many of the types of punctuation we use today, Romans usually only used periods. (And often Romans would use no punctuation at all. Sometimes they even left out the spaces between words.) Point being, the question mark; like the comma, colon, and semicolon; wasn't commonly used until after the introduction of the printing press. So the quote probably shouldn't end with one.

My Latin is rather rusty, so if you have any better suggestions, please send me an email:
dominicchessman@gmail.com

== The Hoverboard comic:1608 Main theme is the never ending stories nothing ==

In "The Never Ending Story" the main theme is the whole world is consumed by "The Nothing" which in this comic is the black part. The movie also includes [this clip](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE8mFDabqD0) where the horse is artax(this is already told in the explanation).

So my suggesion is to add the "the nothing" theme at the start of the description.

The paste.click link for the full image is broken, but I do not have a copy of that image. Could someone with the image upload it to Imgur and switch the link? Thank you!

== MetroidXK ==

It seems the original site is down. I wonder if anyone still has a copy of it.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.167.6|162.158.167.6]] 04:02, 19 August 2020 (UTC)

887: Future Timeline

2021-01-24T07:12:46Z

162.158.63.196: /* shifting my edit because I put the outcome in the details

{{comic
| number = 887
| date = April 18, 2011
| title = Future Timeline
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]
| image = future timeline.png
| titletext = Not shown: the approximately 30,000 identical, vaguely hysterical articles titled "WHITE PEOPLE IN [THE US/BRITAIN] TO BECOME MINORITY BY [YEAR]!", which came up for basically any year I put in.
}}

==Explanation==

This comic uses the same strategy as comic [[715: Numbers]], in which [[Randall]] uses Google to search for phrases and then charts the results. This one is charted as a timeline, whereas 715 was charted as line graphs.
It is a list of things predicted or announced by anyone at any time (the ones you see on Google search using "by the year..." or similar statements).

"2101 - War Was Beginning" is a reference to the opening narration of video game ''Zero Wing''; the same narration is famous for the internet meme "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}". As there are not any other out and out references in the comic, and the rest are actually results that you can find using Randall's methods, "War Was Beginning" was probably the only thing he got when he googled 2101 as well.

Certain events in this comic, e.g. "Social Security stops running surplus", are repeated multiple times. Also, certain bizarre events, like "Apocalypse occurs", or "Flying cars reach market", happen before rather plausible things, like "HTML 5 Finished". Certain events, like "Japan is a robot-only country" or "Gillette introduces 14-blade razor" may be related to the recurring theme [[605: Extrapolating]].

The title text is a reference to a reoccurring scaremonger theory that Caucasian people will become a minority or extinct as other ethnicities outbreed them. For maximum scaremongering they will claim this could happen in the near future, complete with extrapolated graphs. In the years since this comic was published these conspiracy theories have come to be known as "the great replacement" or "white genocide". Scaremongers are banking on the idea their target audience will rarely bother to fact check,<ref>https://www.cjr.org/special_report/media-literacy-trump-fake-news.php</ref> as analysis of their extrapolations usually reveals incorrect methodology if not outright lies<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUbxVfSqtt8</ref>.

This comic has similar features to [[1413: Suddenly Popular]], [[1093: Forget]], and [[891: Movie Ages]].

===Accuracy===
====2012-2014====
The only predictions for this period that came true are that the world population has surpassed 7 billion. Canada formally withdrew from the Kyoto protocol in December 2011, and its emissions in 2012 were 18% ''above'' 1990 levels (though its population had grown 26% and its GDP had grown 67% in that period). Sadly, homelessness is still a problem in Massachusetts. The prediction about GNU/Linux operating systems remains false; although Android (which is built on the Linux kernel) is currently the most dominant OS, it is not completely GNU/Linux, which remains an extreme minority on consumer devices. And so far as we're aware, the apocalypse has yet to occur.

====2015-2016====
{{w|New Horizons}} made its closest approach to Pluto in July 2015. It was never intended to ''land'' on Pluto, though the comic does not necessarily imply this.

The other 2015 predictions did not come true, though some might claim gender equality was reached.

{{w|Android OS}}' market share was already 84.4% as of the third quarter of 2014, showing that both estimates were overly conservative.<ref>http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp</ref> {{w|Windows Phone}} continued to have less than 30% of {{w|iOS}}' market share and has since been discontinued.

====2017-2019====
None of the predictions for this period have come true.
====2020====
Because of the pandemic, solar power is now cheaper than fossil fuels

==The predictions==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Year
! Prediction
! Further Details
! Outcome
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2012
| World population
| Ever since the advent of modern medicine and the more efficient agricultural processes developed since the Industrial Revolution, the human population had been growing at an unprecedented rate. This has caused some people to worry about overpopulation, which would cause a scarcity of resources and overcrowding, and propose various solutions, most of which involve some form of eugenics. 7 billion is a landmark number because it is a multiple of 1 billion.
| Close: Earth reached 7 billion in late 2011.
|-
| Flying cars
| For decades, flying cars have been a staple of futuristic sci-fi and technological predictions. So far very few of these predictions, which to tend to hover around 5–10 years from whatever the current date is, have come true.
| False; still 5-10 years away. You could argue that helicopters count as flying cars.
|-
| Canada cuts greenhouse emissions
| Currently, the Earth is experiencing an unprecedented period of warming we call global warming, caused in part by greenhouse emissions, which are gases that help trap heat in the atmosphere. Countries have repeatedly gotten together and promised to stop emitting greenhouse gases, but so far they have failed to meet their targets.
| False. Canada withdrew from Kyoto treaty in late 2011.
|-
| Apocalypse occurs
| The end of a cycle of the Mayan calendar on December 22, 2012 has been used in popular culture as a basis for predicting the end of the world. Amongst other things, this included the film '2012'. Some people took this rather more seriously, and actually believed that the world would end on this date.
| False.{{Citation needed}}
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2013
| National debt paid off
| For years, the subject of national debt has been a political point of contention, with the Republicans typically favoring paying it all off, and the Democrats more willing to spend to pull the country out of recessions in the economy. Clinton, a Democrat, at one point proposed [http://money.cnn.com/1999/06/28/economy/clinton/ paying off the debt by 2015].
| False.
|-
| Microchipping Americans
| Microchips are small computer chips, typically embedded in pets in case they get lost, that contain information about the pet. Some, more paranoid, people worry about the government microchipping everyone in an effort to monitor their activities.
| False, although [https://www.google.com/search?q=rfid+implants RFID implants] do exist.
|-
| Homelessness ended in MA
| In 2008, the Commission To End Homelessness in Massachusetts, under Governor Deval Patrick, proposed a plan to all but eliminate homelessness over the next five years (hence the 2013 end-date on the comic).
| False.
|-
| Health care reform law repealed
| A health care reform law, popularly known as Obamacare, was signed into law in 2010. Ever since, many Republicans have tried (in vain) to repeal it, disliking the idea that government should provide and require healthcare.
| Too early; almost repealed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2014
| US leaves Afghanistan
| After the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11, 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan, which at the time allegedly hosted the headquarters of al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization behind the attacks. The war has gone on since then, with the public growing increasingly tired of it. Public support now favors a withdrawal, but for military and logistical reasons, the government cannot simply move all the troops currently in Afghanistan home right now. For one, that would cause immediate chaos in the country. Therefore, the government instead promises to eventually withdraw all troops, planning on doing so by the end of 2014.
| False. As of October 2019, 13,000 US troops remain in Afghanistan.
|-
| GNU/Linux dominant OS
| An operating system, or OS, is the software that forms the structure in which applications on you computer function. Some typical OSs include Mac OS X, Windows 10, and Linux. The first two of those three are commercial products, sold as a copy by a company. The last is an open-source OS, one that anyone can download and modify free. Typically, open-source software is used by a small number of socially conscious people.
| False, although Linux-based Android dominated phones since 2011.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2015
| New Horizon reaches Pluto
| The New Horizon spacecraft is a U.S. space mission designed to go to Pluto and take photographs, collect samples, etc.
| True. [http://pluto.jhuapl.edu It reached Pluto on July 14, 2015].
|-
| Healthcare law causes hyperinflation
| The National Inflation Association warns that the [http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/healthcare-bill-to-cause-us-hyperinflation-by-2015-88711032.html Healthcare Bill to Cause U.S. Hyperinflation By 2015]
| False.
|-
| Millennium development goals achieved
| {{w|Millennium Development Goals}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2016
| Baby boomers begin turning 65
| {{w|Baby boomers}} are individuals conceived in the years following World War Two, roughly defined as those born from 1946-1959. This isn't so much a prediction as basic math; if you were born in 1946, you turned 65 in 2011.
| True.
|-
| Android takes 38%/45% of market share
| {{w|Android (operating system)|Android}} is a popular operating system for smartphones and tablets, created by Google. Market share is the percentage of all devices that use the product, in this case the Android operating system. These entries together are humorous because they cannot both happen at the same time.
| Too late; passed these marks in 2010.
|-
| Windows phone overtakes iOS
| {{w|iOS}} is the operating system used by Apple iPhones. At the time of the comic, Apple's mobile OS is much more popular than Microsoft's. The article Randall found predicts that the tables will turn. However, Windows Phone was discontinued in 2017, with support for the last version (Windows Phone 10) ending on December 10, 2019.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2017
| China completes lunar mission
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
| False. The first sample-return mission was completed in November 2020.
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| The first of many predictions about the United States {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} trust fund program, all predicting its decline due to a variety of factors.
| False
|-
| US budget balanced
| The {{w|United States federal budget}} outlines how much the US government spends on what in a given fiscal year. The budget is not required to be balanced, and so often more money is spent than is earned in revenue, causing the national debt to rise.
| False. Still far negative.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The increasing popularity of internet media and mobile devices has caused a steady decline in the popularity of print media.
| False. Though newspapers are in decline, they are certainly not obsolete as of 2017.
|-
| Cosmetic surgery doubles
| {{w|Cosmetic Surgery}}
| False. According to the ASPS (American Society of Plastic Surgeons), 1.6 million cosmetic surgeries were performed in 2011, while 1.8 million were performed in 2017, an increase of only 0.2 million.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2018
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still false.
|-
| Jesus returns to Earth
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the second coming, the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible itself says that "no man can know the date". Several predicted dates have come and gone.
| False
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2019
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still false.
|-
| Every baby has genes mapped at birth
| {{w|Gene Mapping}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2020
| Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
| Scientists estimate that more than half of the {{w|fossil fuels}} in existence have already been found and that fossil fuel production will begin to decline due to the scarcity, causing prices to increase. At the same time, improvements in {{w|Solar Power|solar technology}} are causing the prices for solar energy to steadily decrease.
| True, though only in {{w|Cost of electricity by source#Recent_global_studies|certain cases}}.
|-
| Keyboards and mice become obsolete
| {{w|Computer input device}} are beginning to adopt other methods of input, such as voice commands, touch screens, and eye tracking. While the use of touch screens in particular is gaining widespread use, as of 2014 none has come close to making keyboards and mice obsolete. None of them allows text input as fast as a keyboard, and none is suitable for writing program code.
| False. While touchscreen devices ''are'' increasingly common, both laptop and desktop computers are still very much in use. Mice continue to be used alongside touchscreens and trackpads, and keyboards remain the dominant method of writing on computers.
|-
| New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
| A {{w|Tappan_Zee_Bridge#Replacement_bridge|replacement bridge}} was announced in 2008.
| Too late; completed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2021
| US debt reaches 97% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
| Too late; reached in 2011.
|-
| US unemployment falls to 2.8%
| {{w|Unemployment in the United States}}
|
|-
| Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
| A {{w|caliphate}} is a form of {{w|Islam|Islamic}} political-religious leadership, centred around a Caliph, or successor to the prophet {{w|Muhammad}}. This may be foreshadowing of the Islamic State of Iraq and greater Syria, which has as its goal the creation of a restored caliphate.
|
|-
| Lake Mead evaporates
| Formed by the {{w|Hoover Dam}} on the {{w|Colorado River}}, {{w|Lake Mead}} is the largest reservoir in the United States (measured by maximum capacity). It hasn't reached its capacity since 1983, due to drought and increased demand for water. This is linked to {{w|global warming}}.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2022
| Kilimanjaro snow-free
| At 5,895 metres, {{w|Kilimanjaro}} is the highest mountain in {{w|Africa}}, and the highest free-standing mountain in the world. Around 85% of its ice cover disappeared between 1912 and 2011, and it continues to recede.
|
|-
| HTML 5 finished
| The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) began work on {{w|HTML 5}} in 2004.
| Too late; 5.0 specification released in 2014, but incremental updates continue.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| This is the second time this prediction has appeared.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2023
| Jesus returns to Earth (again)
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the second coming, the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible itself says that "no man can know the date". Several predicted dates have come and gone.
|
|-
| US debt passes 100% of GDP
| This references the common fear that {{w|US Debt}} will exceed GDP, possibly causing [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble economic turmoil].
| Too late; reached in 2012.
|-
| All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
| Likely due to a combination of wildfire and {{w|deforestation}}
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2024
| Atlantis begins to reappear
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea.
|
|-
| Orangutans extinct in wild
| {{w|Orangutan|Orangutans}} are a species of great ape, currently classed as an {{w|endangered species}}, and found only in the {{w|Rainforest|rainforests}} of {{w|Borneo}} and {{w|Sumatra}}.
|
|-
| China lands men and women on the moon
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
|
|-
| NASA sets up permanent moon base
| There has been a lot of hype recently about finally returning to the moon, vis-a-vis Orion.
|
|-
| Female professionals pass males in pay
| There are two possible explanations for this entry: Either it's fear-mongering from misogynists or, more probably, an erroneous extrapolation from the current rate at which female incomes are catching up to male incomes.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2025
| World population reaches 8 billion
| Given current rates, it seems unlikely it will take this long to hit 8 billion, but advances in birth control options and especially their availability in developing nations may slow the current rate considerably.
|
|-
| Two billion people face water shortages
| http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/28-01-2008/103693-water_crisis-0/
|
|-
| 62 MPG cars introduced
| 62 miles per gallon, ~3.8 L/100km. 62 MPG is a very good mileage rate at today's standard, even though [http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=5231050&page=1 some cars can be driven carefully so as to attain over 100 MPG].
|
|-
| US power fades
| http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-us-power-will-fade-by-2025/
| Hard to know what the precise metric for this would be.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2026
| Atlantis emerges completely
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. It seems that it has taken 2 years for it to emerge completely.
|
|-
| Rock Bands die out
| https://bestbands.wordpress.com/2009/01/25/rock-bands-to-die-out-by-2026/
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}} [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/business/27view.html It’s 2026, and the Debt Is Due].
|
|-
| Car accidents cease
| Presumably, cars will be fully automated and able to pilot themselves at this point and will have fail-safes that prevent collisions currently attributed to user error. Car accidents will always be possible, however, due to mechanical and electrical failures.
|
|-
| West coast falls into ocean
| Most likely due to {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|a significant seismic event}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2027
| Japan introduces new fastest Maglev train
| Japan's railway systems are famous for their "bullet trains", or {{w|Shinkansen}}. The Chūō Shinkansen is planned to be opened in this year.
|
|-
| Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony is established
| http://totse.mattfast1.com/en/technology/space_astronomy_nasa/moonmars.html
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2028
| Tobacco outlawed
| Tobacco products (cigarettes and chewing tobacco) have become more and more taboo in modern culture, with most public places and private businesses forbidding their use indoors and near places children congregate.
|
|-
| 40% of coral reefs gone
| Many factors have been attributed to the decline of {{w|Coral_reef#Threats|coral reefs}}, including mining, over fishing, and rising ocean tempteratures.
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2029
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| Computers pass the Turing test
| It is no coincidence that 2029 is the timeline for Terminator Movies.
| Some computer programs already clear the Turing Test about 30% of the time.
|-
| Aging reversed
| Manhattan Beach Project to reverse aging by 2029
|
|-
| Wikipedia reaches 30 Million articles
|
| As of 00:00, 5 January 2015 (UTC), Wikipedia has over 34 million total articles, if all languages are included. The source being cited may have meant the English language Wikipedia, which has only 5.94 million articles, as of 1 October 2019.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2030
| Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
| WWF press release - [http://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/climate-change-speeds-up-amazon-s-destruction-says-wwf Climate Change Speeds Up Amazon’s Destruction] referring to a report on the [http://assets.panda.org/downloads/amazonas_eng_04_12b_web.pdf Amazon's vicious cycles] (PDF)
|
|-
| Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
| From the [http://www.cancer.org/myacs/newengland/global-cancer-burden-to-double-by-2030 Global Cancer Burden to Nearly Double by 2030] article about the article from page 37 of [http://www.cancer.org/research/cancerfactsfigures/globalcancerfactsfigures/global-facts-figures-2nd-ed Global Cancer Facts & Figures 2nd edition].
|
|-
| Arctic ice-free in summer
| http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-video-ap.html
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2031
| Computers controlled by thought
| http://www.gizmag.com/future-mobile-technology/17554/
| As of 2017, this is {{w|Brain–computer interface|already possible}}
|-
| Realtors replaced by technology
| http://agbeat.com/editorials/will-realtors-be-replaced-by-technology-by-the-year-2031/
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| http://crfb.org/blogs/cbo-95-percent-confident-social-security-trust-fund-runs-out-25-years
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2032
| "Big One" hits San Francisco
| http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Quake-scientists-predict-Big-One-likely-by-2032-2653745.php {{w|San Franscisco}} is located on the {{w|San Andreas Fault}}, which is predicted to produce a magnitude 7+ earthquake in the 'near future'. This event is referred to as {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|"The Big One"}}.
|
|-
| US elects first married lesbian President
| http://4chandata.org/g/In-what-major-ways-do-you-think-the-world-of-2032-will-be-different-from-that-of-today-a20155
|
|-
| Entire world converted to Christianity
| http://www.goddiscussion.com/38920/christian-domininionsts-to-take-over-the-world-by-2032/
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2033
| Kilimanjaro ice disappears
| http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/02/idUSL2210825
|
|-
| India becomes superpower
| https://www.facebook.com/pages/India-A-SuperPower-by-2033/151177191568098 ?
|
|-
| Europe reaches Mars
| [http://www.spacedaily.com/news/esa-general-03zb.html Specifically, a manned European mission]. ESA's {{w|Mars Express}} probe landed in 2003.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2034
| US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
| [http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/27/us-diabetes-usa-costs-idUSTRE5AQ0C220091127 U.S. diabetes cases to double, costs triple by 2034]
|
|-
| US builds autonomous robot army
| The concept of robots built for military service is another common element of science fiction stories. [http://www.aos-inc.com/index.php/medialias/press-releases?id=112 Unmanned Systems] article, about the [http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA522247 2009-2034 Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap] publication ([http://www.amazon.com/2009-Unmanned-Integrated-Aircraft-Technologies-ebook/dp/B0047743A0 details at Amazon])
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2035
| 80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
| From fact sheet on Obama's [http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/fact-sheet-state-union-president-obamas-plan-win-future State of the Union]
|
|-
| Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
| From an IPCC report on [https://web.archive.org/web/20100116132657/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html The Himalayan glaciers] that has been analysed in quite some depth. See for example detailed article on an [http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/02/anatomy-of-ipccs-himalayan-glacier-year-2035-mess/ anatomy of IPCC’s mistake].
|
|-
| Arctic sea lane opens
| [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/730ef8fe-27e1-11e0-8abc-00144feab49a.html#axzz3OBgEHYNY Arctic sea lane could open by 2035]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2036
| 80% of US has access to high-speed rail
| [http://www.wnyc.org/story/284946-obama-80-percent-of-americans-should-have-access-to-high-speed-rail-by-2036/ Obama: 80 Percent of Americans Should Have Access to High Speed Rail By 2036]
|
|-
| Asteroid Apophis misses/hits Earth
| http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ 99942 Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2037
| Arctic ice-free in September
| {{w|Arctic sea ice decline}}
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2038
| 32-bit timestamps roll over, causing Y2K-level chaos
| 03:14:07 UTC on 19 January 2038, the value of time_t rolls over, that is it will return to zero. time_t is a computing standard measurement of time; it is a count of the number of seconds since 00:00:00 UTC on 1 January 1970. time_t is used by most computer systems to store date and time information. It is recommended that new software should convert to a 64 bit time_t; indeed, most operating systems designed to run on 64-bit hardware already use signed 64-bit time_t integers. This would give an epoch of 15:30:08 UTC on 4 December 292,277,026,596 (292 billion years away). Of course, legacy systems may not be upgradable so action taken now should prevent this becoming a problem closer to 2038...
|
|-
| "Big One" hits California
| [http://www.presstelegram.com/technology/20080414/the-big-one-likely-to-hit-by-2038 `The big one' likely to hit by 2038]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2039
| US population hits 400 Million
| [http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2008/us400million.aspx U.S. Population Projected to Hit 400 Million in 2039]
|
|-
| Severe heat waves become commonplace
| [http://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/july/extreme-heat-study-070810.html Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds]
|
|-
| Scientology becomes majority religion in US
| [http://home.snafu.de/tilman/2039.html Essay: Scientology in the year 2039]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2040
| Arctic summers ice-free
| [http://www.livescience.com/9419-arctic-summer-ice-free-2040.html Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2040]
|
|-
| Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
| [http://www.computerworld.com/article/2528330/app-development/nanotech-could-make-humans-immortal-by-2040--futurist-says.html Nanotech could make humans immortal by 2040, futurist says]
|
|-
| 2041
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2043
| World population passes 9 Billion
| {{w|Population growth}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2044
| Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
| Premise of the movie [http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1363468/ Zenith] - further details are in the [http://www.filmjournal.com/filmjournal/content_display/esearch/e3i25130cd57f1590bda4527c098ac85b01 film review for Zenith]
|
|-
| Childhood obesity reaches 100%
| [http://www.ivanhoe.com/channels/p_channelstory.cfm?storyid=11414 100-Percent Childhood Obesity Predicted by 2044]
|
|-
| 2045
| Humans and machines merge
| Ray Kurzweil predicts of 'singularity' which will lead to race of super intelligent beings
|
|-
| 2046
| World's natural resources depleted
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2047
| World ruled by banks and corporations
| [http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Schlock-2047-RM-Krakoff-ebook/dp/B0039IT37Q Future Schlock] - the story of a world turned upside down in 2047
|
|-
| Tobacco industry fails
| [http://www.news.wisc.edu/16857 Experts: Big Tobacco dead by 2047, possibly sooner]
|
|-
| US begins using autonomous attack drones
| [http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/aug/22/us-air-force-drones-pilots-afghanistan US Air Force prepares drones to end era of fighter pilots]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2048
| Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
| WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ Unsustainable fishing]
|
|-
| Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
| [http://future.wikia.com/wiki/RyansWorld:_Bathing_Suits_of_the_Future RyansWorld: Bathing Suits of the Future]
|
|-
| Entire US population overweight
| Article archive - [https://web.archive.org/web/20090321075605/http://thestatsblog.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/scientists-say-thin-people-face-extinction-in-united-states-everyone-will-be-overweight-by-2048-%E2%80%93-and-less-smart Scientists Say Thin People Face Extinction in United States: Everyone Will Be Overweight by 2048 – And Less Smart]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2049
| $1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
| [http://www.americanbar.org/content/newsletter/publications/technology_e_report_home/2007_may_technotes.html TechNotes: Trends in Technology]
|
|-
| Singularity occurs
| [http://www.prismdecision.com/the-singularity-is-near The Singularity Is Near]
|
|-
| Fishing industry collapses
| This tends to happen when your food-stock is extinct - see WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ Unsustainable fishing]
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2050
| 80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
| [http://infochangeindia.org/population/books-a-reports/80-of-world-population-will-soon-be-in-urban-areas.html 80% of world population will soon be in urban areas]
|
|-
| China controls space
| [https://books.google.com/books?id=op851Uf99LQC&dq=China+controls+space+2050&source=gbs_navlinks_s Space Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050]
|
|-
| Sex with robots possible
| [http://www.livescience.com/1951-forecast-sex-marriage-robots-2050.html Forecast: Sex and Marriage with Robots by 2050]
|
|-
| Cars banned from European cities
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/8411336/EU-to-ban-cars-from-cities-by-2050.html EU to ban cars from cities by 2050]
|
|-
| One million species extinct from climate change
| [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/01/0107_040107_extinction.html By 2050 Warming to Doom Million Species, Study Says]
|
|-
| 2051
| Atmosphere escapes into space
| [http://www.thehulltruth.com/boating-outdoor-photos/255705-have-you-ever-seen-fallstreak-hole.html Conspiracy theory] relating to {{w|Fallstreak hole}} or hole punch clouds.
|
|-
| 2052
| Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2053
| US budget balanced
| [http://crfb.org/blogs/omb-releases-long-term-projections-fy2015-budget-proposal OMB releases long-term projections for the FY2015 budget proposal]
|
|-
| Majority of Americans in prison
| [http://articles.philly.com/1992-06-14/news/26032105_1_prison-officials-prison-time-prison-commissioners 'Beyond Bricks And Bars' As Jails Overflow, The Lock-'em-up Credo Is Drawing Unlikely Criticism - From Prison Officials Themselves]
|
|-
| Cars driven by dogs
|
| This has [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWAK0J8Uhzk already occurred] in 2012!
|-
| 2054
| Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
| [http://www.albionmonitor.com/0403a/earth2054.html Hunger Could Be 'Unimaginable' Global Problem By 2054]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2055
| Atmospheric CO2 doubled
| [http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/flash_intro.php Carbon Mitigation Initiative: Stabilization Wedges]
|
|-
| Oil runs out
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
| [http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/environment/5-valuable-metals-that-could-vanish-by-2055 5 Valuable Metals That Could Vanish by 2055]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2056
| RFID-tagged driverless cars
| [http://www.zdnet.com/article/rfid-tagged-driverless-cars-on-roads-by-2056/ RFID-tagged driverless cars on roads by 2056]
|
|-
| Robots given same rights as humans
| [http://www.cc.gatech.edu/news/robots-given-same-rights-humans-2056 Robots Given Same Rights As Humans By 2056]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2057
| 150 Japanese settlers on Mars
| [http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/9011051292/will-japan-colonize-mars Will Japan colonize Mars?]
|
|-
| Colorado River runs dry
| [http://news.agu.org/press-release/colorado-river-reservoirs-could-bottom-out-from-warming-business-as-usual/ Colorado River Reservoirs Could Bottom Out From Warming]
|
|-
| 2058
| Smoking ends in New Zealand
| [http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10698966 Smoking to die out in NZ by 2058]
|
|-
| 2059
| Humans have domesticated robots
| [http://diehardempiricist.blogspot.co.nz/2012/05/6-may-2011-virtual-necking-demography.html Virtual necking, demography, and robots]
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2060
| Human race lives in peace
| [http://www.arasfoundation.org/vision.html ARAS vision/mission]
|
|-
| Extreme droughts across much of Earth
| [http://wdas.cosmosmagazine.com/news/extreme-drought-across-most-earth-30-years/ Extreme drought across most of Earth by 2060]
|
|-
| Global temperature rise reaches 4 °C
| {{w|Avoiding dangerous climate change}}
|
|-
| Oil runs out again
| [http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/01/oil-may-run-out-by-2060-hsbc/?__lsa=98a7-5c61 Oil may run out by 2060: HSBC]
|
|-
| 2061
| Halley's comet returns
| Halley's comet returns to the inner solar system (the vicinity of earth and the sun) every 75.3 years. The last time it was near earth was in 1985-1986. When it next returns, its closest approach to the sun will occur on 28 July 2061.<ref name=horizons>[http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi Donald K. Yeomans. "Horizon Online Ephemeris System". California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 8 September 2006.]</ref>
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2062
| Uganda hosts World Cup
| [http://shillingscents.blogspot.co.nz/2010/07/uganda-to-host-world-cup-in-2062.html Uganda to host world cup in 2062]
|
|-
| The Jetsons
| {{w|The Jetsons}} was an animated science fiction sitcom that first aired in 1962. The show was set in the year 2062.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2063
| First human clones reach adulthood
| [http://au.ign.com/articles/2004/04/28/the-fall-last-days-of-gaia-diary-2 The Fall - Last Days of Gaia Diary #2]
|
|-
| Population of Moon reaches 100,000
| Reading Eagle newspaper article from July 17, 1963 - [http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1955&dat=19630717&id=PhgrAAAAIBAJ&sjid=B50FAAAAIBAJ&pg=4055,6599008 Moon Population of 100,000 Is Predicted for 2063] and [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Population of Mars reaches 10,000
| [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Spacecraft exceed speed of light
| Physics as currently understood states that it is impossible to exceed the speed of light. A monumental shift in our physics would have had to have occurred for this to come true. This is a reference to the 8th Star Trek feature Film: "Star Trek: First Contact" where Zefram Cochrane performs the first human Warp Flight on April 5, 2063.
|
|-
| 2064
| Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
| [http://www.cleanhouston.org/air/features/hazyfuture.htm State plan guarantees a hazy future for Texas’ wilderness areas]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2065
| Last coral reefs die out
| From an [http://www.edgeofexistence.org/coral_reef_conservation/coral_reef_video.php article about a video called Reefs on the Edge] set in 2065 where a 15-year-old girl tells her grandfather's stories of coral reefs, and their demise.
|
|-
| Chernobyl cleanup complete
| [http://rt.com/politics/chernobyl-clean-in-55-years-time/ Chernobyl clean in 55 years time?]
|
|-
| 2066
| Cyprus achieves its goal
| This is from some [http://www.cyprus-forum.com/cyprus33608-110.html#p665612 forum posts on the decendants of Cypriots] that lends support to the autonomy of Cyprus from Greek or Turkey.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2067
| Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
| The article at [http://blogs.lib.unc.edu/ncm/index.php/2013/11/15/artifact-of-the-month-slide-rule-1916/ Artifact of the Month: Slide rule, 1916] includes information from the International Slide Rule Museum that "in 1967, Keuffel & Esser Co. commissioned a study of the future, predicting that Americans in 2067 would live in domed cities and watch 3D television."
|
|-
| Redheads go extinct
| [http://science.howstuffworks.com/life/genetic/redhead-extinction.htm Are redheads going extinct?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2068
| Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
| [http://www.theozonehole.com/recovery.htm NASA Study Finds Clock Ticking Slower On Ozone Hole Recovery]
|
|-
| Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
| [http://myth-one.com/chapter_8.htm The Resurrections -- What Really Happens]
|
|-
| Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
| [http://thedailybanter.com/2013/01/alex-jones-the-government-is-trying-to-make-more-gay-people/ Alex Jones talks about chemicals that make people gay]
|
|-
| 2069
| Public masturbation legalized
| [http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/UnNews:It's_still_not_okay_to_Pull_Your_Penis_out_in_Public It's still not okay to Pull Your Penis out in Public]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2070
| World population peaks
| [http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1108-global-population-to-peak-in-2070.html Global population to peak in 2070]
|
|-
| City-scale flooding disasters
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthnews/3317033/City-scale-flooding-disasters-predicted-by-2070.html City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070]
|
|-
| 60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
| [http://www.ssisolarenergy.com/solar-alternative-energy/ What Is Alternative Energy All About?]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2071
| Europe's temperatures rise by 3 °C
| [http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/climate-energy/climate-change-adaptation/adaptation-tools/project-catalog/peseta-projection-of-economic-impacts-of-climate Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis]
|
|-
| World summer temperatures rise by 5 °C
| [http://www.climateadaptation.eu/denmark/climate-change/ See "Air temperature changes in the 21st century"]
|
|-
| 2072
| US retirement age is set to 75
| [http://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/articles/2012/06/11/how-high-will-the-retirement-age-go Up to 70-80 years]
|
|-
| 2073
| Oceans do not rise one foot
| [http://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm More like 2 feet]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2074
| Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
| [http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-8848188.html UK to have 1 million centenarians by 2074]
|
|-
| Supertyphoons hit Japan
| [http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/09/08/national/super-typhoons-in-store-as-seas-warm/ Super typhoons in store as seas warm]
|
|-
| 2075
| US retirement age set to 69
| [http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2010/1112/Retirement-age-at-69-Deficit-plan-hits-Social-Security Retirement age at 69? Deficit plan hits Social Security]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2076
| Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
| [https://doclib.uhasselt.be/dspace/bitstream/1942/871/1/yitzhaki373.PDF Multiple Authorship in Biochemistry and Other Fields] (PDF)
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2078
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The same prediction was made for 2017 and 2022. Even when most prognosticators agree that something will happen, there can still be much disagreement about ''when'' it will happen.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2079
| US debt reaches 716% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
| [http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2011/feb/climate-change-causing-demise-lodgepole-pine-western-north-america Climate change causing demise of lodgepole pine in western North America]
|
|-
| Floods commonplace
| [http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090108101627.htm Floods To Become Commonplace By 2080]
|
|-
| Religion marginalized
| http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-11347073
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2080
| Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
| [http://crfb.org/sites/default/files/our_debt_problems_are_far_from_solved_updated_2.pdf Our debt problems are far from solved] (PDF)
|
|-
| UK population doubles
| [http://forums.canadiancontent.net/international-politics/69603-britains-population-hit-110-million.html Britain's population to hit 110 million]
|
|-
| 2082
| World population declines to one billion
| [http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html Population: The Elephant in the Room]
|
|-
| 2084
| Robot policemen introduced
| [http://www.thetechherald.com/articles/Robotic-cops-set-to-stamp-out-crime-by-2084 Robotic cops set to stamp out crime by 2084]
|
|-
| 2085
| US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
| [http://moneybob.com/2010/06/28/paul-krugman-throws-in-towel-says-were-headed-for-another-depression/ Paul Krugman Throws In Towel, Says We’re Headed For Another Depression]
|
|-
| 2088
| Japan becomes all-robot country
| [http://www.theretributioners.tv/erics-blog/2009/11/25/-japan-to-become-all-robot-country-by-2088.html Japan To Become All Robot Country By 2088]
|
|-
| 2089
| World halts fossil fuel use
| {{w|Fossil Fuels}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2090
| Global warming hits 7 °C
| [http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/models-warn-of-7c-dangerous-climate-change-by-2090.html Models warn of 7C dangerous climate change by 2090]. Climate change, especially global warming, is a [[:Category:Climate change|recurring theme]] in xkcd.
|
|-
| Global warming hits 4 °C
| Summarized [http://www.global-warming-forecasts.com/2090-climate-change-global-warming-2090.php here]. In reference to Andy Bowers, “Analysis: Scientists say global warming could affect California's drinking water supply,” NPR All Things Considered, June 22, 2001
|
|-
| rowspan="11"| 2100
| Global warming around 5-7 °C
| [http://grist.org/article/bau-fd/ Hadley Center study warns of ‘catastrophic’ 5-7°C warming by 2100 on current emissions path]
|
|-
| Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
| {{w|Future sea level}}
|
|-
| Joshua trees nearly extinct
| [http://news.discovery.com/earth/joshua-trees-climate-change-110325.htm Joshua Trees Nearly Wiped Out by 2100?]
|
|-
| Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
| [http://www.pnas.org/content/107/2/576 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100]
|
|-
| Germany tropical
| [http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/climate-change-predictions-a-tropical-germany-by-2100-a-463378.html Climate Change Predictions: A Tropical Germany by 2100?]
|
|-
| Emperor penguins extinct
| [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7851276.stm Emperor penguins face extinction]
|
|-
| Arctic permafrost thaws
| [http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/surface-permafrost-could/ Surface Permafrost Could Disappear by 2100]
|
|-
| Rising seas flood coastal cities
| [http://uanews.org/story/rising-seas-will-affect-major-us-coastal-cities-2100 Rising Seas Will Affect Major U.S. Coastal Cities by 2100]
|
|-
| Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
| [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/08/06/890970/-Massive-Loss-of-Rainforest-Species-by-2100-eKos-Earthship-Friday Massive Loss of Rainforest Species by 2100]
|
|-
| All coral reefs gone
| [http://planetsave.com/2010/10/15/coral-reefs-gone-by-2100/ Coral Reefs Gone by 2100?]
|
|-
| Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
| Each iteration of the Gillette line of safety razors has one more blade than the previous one. MadTV has also [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FAP8o5ZEo0 parodied] this. Over five years before MadTV did so, the Australian comedy group the D-Generation parodied the first two-bladed razor as the [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YleuLyCUx28 Gillette 3000] with 16 blades.
|
|-
| 2101
| WAR WAS BEGINNING
| References {{w|Zero Wing}}, a 1989 Japanese computer game set in 2101, famous for poorly translated English and the source for "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}".
|
|}
<references/>

==Transcript==

:<big>'''THE FUTURE'''</big>
:'''According to Google search results'''
:Events for each year determined by the first page of Google search results for the phrases:
:"By <year>" "In year"
:"By the year <year>" "In the year <year>"
:"Will * by the year <year>" "Will * in the year <year>"
:"In <year>, * will" "By <year>, * will"
:
:;2012
::World population reaches 7 billion
::Flying cars reach market
::Canada cuts greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels as per Kyoto
::Apocalypse occurs
:;2013
::National debt paid off through President Clinton's plans
::Microchipping of all Americans begins
::Homelessness ended in Massachusetts
::Health care reform law repealed
:;2014
::US leaves Afghanistan
::GNU/Linux becomes dominant OS
:;2015
::New Horizons reaches Pluto
::Health care law causes hyperinflation
::192 UN member nations achieve millennium development goals:
::*Extreme poverty and hunger eradicated
::*Universal primary education implemented
::*Women empowered, gender equality reached
::*Environmental stability ensured
:;2016
::Baby boomers begin turning 65
::Android takes 38% of the smartphone market
::Android takes 45% of the smartphone market
::Windows Phone overtakes iOS in smartphones
:;2017
::China completes unmanned Lunar sample-return mission
::Social Security stops running surplus
::US budget balanced
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
::Cosmetic surgery doubles
:;2018
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Jesus returns to Earth
:;2019
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Every baby has genes mapped at birth
:;2020
::Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
::Keyboards and mice become obsolete
::New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
:;2021
::US debt reaches 97% of GDP
::US unemployment falls to 2.8%
::Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
::Lake Mead evaporates
:;2022
::Kilimanjaro snow-free
::HTML 5 finished
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2023
::Jesus returns to Earth (again)
::US debt passes 100% of GDP
::All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
:;2024
::Atlantis begins to reappear
::Orangutans extinct in wild
::China lands men and women on the moon
::NASA sets up permanent moon base
::Female professionals pass males in pay
:;2025
::World population reaches 8 billion
::Two billion people face water shortages
::62 MPG cars introduced
::US power fades
:;2026
::Atlantis emerges completely
::Rock Bands die out
::US debt paid off
::Car accidents cease
::West coast falls into ocean
:;2027
::Japan introduces new fastest maglev train
::Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony established
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2028
::Tobacco outlawed
::40% of coral reefs gone
::US debt paid off
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2029
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
::Computers pass the Turing Test
::Aging reversed
::Wikipedia reaches 30 million articles
:;2030
::Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
::Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
::Arctic ice-free in summer
:;2031
::Computers controlled by thought
::Realtors replaced by technology
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2032
::"Big One" hits San Francisco
::US elects first married lesbian president
::Entire world converted to Christianity
:;2033
::Kilimanjaro ice disappears
::India becomes superpower
::Europe reaches Mars
:;2034
::US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
::US builds autonomous robot army
:;2035
::80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
::Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
::Arctic sea lane opens
:;2036
::80% of US has access to high-speed rail
::Asteroid Apophis hits/misses Earth
:;2037
::Arctic ice-free in September
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2038
::32-bit timestamps role over, causing Y2K-level chaos
::"Big One" hits California
:;2039
::US population hits 400 million
::Severe heat waves become commonplace
::Scientology becomes majority religion in US
:;2040
::Arctic summers ice-free
::Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
:;2041
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2042
:;2043
::World population passes 9 billion
:;2044
::Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
::Childhood obesity reaches 100%
:;2045
::Humans and machines merge
:;2046
::World's natural resources depleted
:;2047
::World ruled by banks and corporations
::Tobacco industry fails
::US begins using autonomous attack drones
:;2048
::Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
::Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
::Entire US population overweight
:;2049
::$1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
::Singularity occurs
::Fishing industry collapses
:;2050
::80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
::China controls space
::Sex with robots possible
::Cars banned from European cities
::One million species extinct from climate change
:;2051
::Atmosphere escapes into space
:;2052
::Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
:;2053
::US budget balanced
::Majority of Americans in prison
::Cars driven by dogs
:;2054
::Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
:;2055
::Atmospheric CO2 doubled
::Oil runs out
::Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
:;2056
::RFID-tagged driverless cars
::Robots given same rights as humans
:;2057
::150 Japanese settlers on Mars
::Colorado River runs dry
:;2058
::Smoking ends in New Zealand
:;2059
::Humans have domesticated robots
:;2060
::Human race lives in peace
::Extreme droughts across much of Earth
::Global temperature rise reaches 4°C
::Oil runs out again
:;2061
::Halley's comet returns
:;2062
::Uganda hosts World Cup
::The Jetsons
:;2063
::First human clones reach adulthood
::Population of Moon reaches 100,000
::Population of Mars reaches 10,000
::Spacecraft exceed speed of light
:;2064
::Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
:;2065
::Last coral reefs die out
::Chernobyl cleanup complete
:;2066
::Cyprus achieves its goal
:;2067
::Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
::Redheads go extinct
:;2068
::Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
::Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
::Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
:;2069
::Public masturbation legalized
:;2070
::World population peaks
::City-scale flooding disasters
::60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
:;2071
::Europe's temperatures rise by 3°C
::World summer temperatures rise by 5°C
:;2072
::US retirement age is set to 75
:;2073
::Oceans do not rise one foot
:;2074
::Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
::Supertyphoons hit Japan
:;2075
::US retirement age set to 69
:;2076
::Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2077
:;2078
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2079
::US debt reaches 716% of GDP
::Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
::Floods commonplace
::Religion marginalized
:;2080
::Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
::UK population doubles
:;2081
:;2082
::World population declines to one billion
:;2083
:;2084
::Robot policemen introduced
:;2085
::US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
:;2086
:;2087
:;2088
::Japan becomes all-robot country
:;2089
::World halts fossil fuel use
:;2090
::Global warming hits 7°C
::Global warming hits 4°C
:;2091
:;2092
:;2093
:;2094
:;2095
:;2096
:;2097
:;2098
:;2099
:;2100
::Global warming around 5-7°C
::Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
::Joshua trees nearly extinct
::Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
::Germany tropical
::Emperor penguins extinct
::Arctic permafrost thaws
::Rising seas flood coastal cities
::Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
::All coral reefs gone
::Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
:;2101
::WAR WAS BEGINNING

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Large drawings]]
[[Category:Timelines]]
[[Category:Google Search]]
[[Category:Climate change]]
[[Category:Singularity]]
[[Category:Renewable energy]]
[[Category:Smartphones]]
[[Category:Wikipedia]]

887: Future Timeline

2021-01-24T07:10:30Z

162.158.63.196: /* The predictions */

{{comic
| number = 887
| date = April 18, 2011
| title = Future Timeline
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]
| image = future timeline.png
| titletext = Not shown: the approximately 30,000 identical, vaguely hysterical articles titled "WHITE PEOPLE IN [THE US/BRITAIN] TO BECOME MINORITY BY [YEAR]!", which came up for basically any year I put in.
}}

==Explanation==

This comic uses the same strategy as comic [[715: Numbers]], in which [[Randall]] uses Google to search for phrases and then charts the results. This one is charted as a timeline, whereas 715 was charted as line graphs.
It is a list of things predicted or announced by anyone at any time (the ones you see on Google search using "by the year..." or similar statements).

"2101 - War Was Beginning" is a reference to the opening narration of video game ''Zero Wing''; the same narration is famous for the internet meme "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}". As there are not any other out and out references in the comic, and the rest are actually results that you can find using Randall's methods, "War Was Beginning" was probably the only thing he got when he googled 2101 as well.

Certain events in this comic, e.g. "Social Security stops running surplus", are repeated multiple times. Also, certain bizarre events, like "Apocalypse occurs", or "Flying cars reach market", happen before rather plausible things, like "HTML 5 Finished". Certain events, like "Japan is a robot-only country" or "Gillette introduces 14-blade razor" may be related to the recurring theme [[605: Extrapolating]].

The title text is a reference to a reoccurring scaremonger theory that Caucasian people will become a minority or extinct as other ethnicities outbreed them. For maximum scaremongering they will claim this could happen in the near future, complete with extrapolated graphs. In the years since this comic was published these conspiracy theories have come to be known as "the great replacement" or "white genocide". Scaremongers are banking on the idea their target audience will rarely bother to fact check,<ref>https://www.cjr.org/special_report/media-literacy-trump-fake-news.php</ref> as analysis of their extrapolations usually reveals incorrect methodology if not outright lies<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUbxVfSqtt8</ref>.

This comic has similar features to [[1413: Suddenly Popular]], [[1093: Forget]], and [[891: Movie Ages]].

===Accuracy===
====2012-2014====
The only predictions for this period that came true are that the world population has surpassed 7 billion. Canada formally withdrew from the Kyoto protocol in December 2011, and its emissions in 2012 were 18% ''above'' 1990 levels (though its population had grown 26% and its GDP had grown 67% in that period). Sadly, homelessness is still a problem in Massachusetts. The prediction about GNU/Linux operating systems remains false; although Android (which is built on the Linux kernel) is currently the most dominant OS, it is not completely GNU/Linux, which remains an extreme minority on consumer devices. And so far as we're aware, the apocalypse has yet to occur.

====2015-2016====
{{w|New Horizons}} made its closest approach to Pluto in July 2015. It was never intended to ''land'' on Pluto, though the comic does not necessarily imply this.

The other 2015 predictions did not come true, though some might claim gender equality was reached.

{{w|Android OS}}' market share was already 84.4% as of the third quarter of 2014, showing that both estimates were overly conservative.<ref>http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp</ref> {{w|Windows Phone}} continued to have less than 30% of {{w|iOS}}' market share and has since been discontinued.

====2017-2019====
None of the predictions for this period have come true.
====2020====
Because of the pandemic, solar power is now cheaper than fossil fuels

==The predictions==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Year
! Prediction
! Further Details
! Outcome
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2012
| World population
| Ever since the advent of modern medicine and the more efficient agricultural processes developed since the Industrial Revolution, the human population had been growing at an unprecedented rate. This has caused some people to worry about overpopulation, which would cause a scarcity of resources and overcrowding, and propose various solutions, most of which involve some form of eugenics. 7 billion is a landmark number because it is a multiple of 1 billion.
| Close: Earth reached 7 billion in late 2011.
|-
| Flying cars
| For decades, flying cars have been a staple of futuristic sci-fi and technological predictions. So far very few of these predictions, which to tend to hover around 5–10 years from whatever the current date is, have come true.
| False; still 5-10 years away. You could argue that helicopters count as flying cars.
|-
| Canada cuts greenhouse emissions
| Currently, the Earth is experiencing an unprecedented period of warming we call global warming, caused in part by greenhouse emissions, which are gases that help trap heat in the atmosphere. Countries have repeatedly gotten together and promised to stop emitting greenhouse gases, but so far they have failed to meet their targets.
| False. Canada withdrew from Kyoto treaty in late 2011.
|-
| Apocalypse occurs
| The end of a cycle of the Mayan calendar on December 22, 2012 has been used in popular culture as a basis for predicting the end of the world. Amongst other things, this included the film '2012'. Some people took this rather more seriously, and actually believed that the world would end on this date.
| False.{{Citation needed}}
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2013
| National debt paid off
| For years, the subject of national debt has been a political point of contention, with the Republicans typically favoring paying it all off, and the Democrats more willing to spend to pull the country out of recessions in the economy. Clinton, a Democrat, at one point proposed [http://money.cnn.com/1999/06/28/economy/clinton/ paying off the debt by 2015].
| False.
|-
| Microchipping Americans
| Microchips are small computer chips, typically embedded in pets in case they get lost, that contain information about the pet. Some, more paranoid, people worry about the government microchipping everyone in an effort to monitor their activities.
| False, although [https://www.google.com/search?q=rfid+implants RFID implants] do exist.
|-
| Homelessness ended in MA
| In 2008, the Commission To End Homelessness in Massachusetts, under Governor Deval Patrick, proposed a plan to all but eliminate homelessness over the next five years (hence the 2013 end-date on the comic).
| False.
|-
| Health care reform law repealed
| A health care reform law, popularly known as Obamacare, was signed into law in 2010. Ever since, many Republicans have tried (in vain) to repeal it, disliking the idea that government should provide and require healthcare.
| Too early; almost repealed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2014
| US leaves Afghanistan
| After the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11, 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan, which at the time allegedly hosted the headquarters of al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization behind the attacks. The war has gone on since then, with the public growing increasingly tired of it. Public support now favors a withdrawal, but for military and logistical reasons, the government cannot simply move all the troops currently in Afghanistan home right now. For one, that would cause immediate chaos in the country. Therefore, the government instead promises to eventually withdraw all troops, planning on doing so by the end of 2014.
| False. As of October 2019, 13,000 US troops remain in Afghanistan.
|-
| GNU/Linux dominant OS
| An operating system, or OS, is the software that forms the structure in which applications on you computer function. Some typical OSs include Mac OS X, Windows 10, and Linux. The first two of those three are commercial products, sold as a copy by a company. The last is an open-source OS, one that anyone can download and modify free. Typically, open-source software is used by a small number of socially conscious people.
| False, although Linux-based Android dominated phones since 2011.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2015
| New Horizon reaches Pluto
| The New Horizon spacecraft is a U.S. space mission designed to go to Pluto and take photographs, collect samples, etc.
| True. [http://pluto.jhuapl.edu It reached Pluto on July 14, 2015].
|-
| Healthcare law causes hyperinflation
| The National Inflation Association warns that the [http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/healthcare-bill-to-cause-us-hyperinflation-by-2015-88711032.html Healthcare Bill to Cause U.S. Hyperinflation By 2015]
| False.
|-
| Millennium development goals achieved
| {{w|Millennium Development Goals}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2016
| Baby boomers begin turning 65
| {{w|Baby boomers}} are individuals conceived in the years following World War Two, roughly defined as those born from 1946-1959. This isn't so much a prediction as basic math; if you were born in 1946, you turned 65 in 2011.
| True.
|-
| Android takes 38%/45% of market share
| {{w|Android (operating system)|Android}} is a popular operating system for smartphones and tablets, created by Google. Market share is the percentage of all devices that use the product, in this case the Android operating system. These entries together are humorous because they cannot both happen at the same time.
| Too late; passed these marks in 2010.
|-
| Windows phone overtakes iOS
| {{w|iOS}} is the operating system used by Apple iPhones. At the time of the comic, Apple's mobile OS is much more popular than Microsoft's. The article Randall found predicts that the tables will turn. However, Windows Phone was discontinued in 2017, with support for the last version (Windows Phone 10) ending on December 10, 2019.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2017
| China completes lunar mission
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon. The first sample-return mission was completed in November 2020, three years after predicted.
| False.
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| The first of many predictions about the United States {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} trust fund program, all predicting its decline due to a variety of factors.
| False
|-
| US budget balanced
| The {{w|United States federal budget}} outlines how much the US government spends on what in a given fiscal year. The budget is not required to be balanced, and so often more money is spent than is earned in revenue, causing the national debt to rise.
| False. Still far negative.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The increasing popularity of internet media and mobile devices has caused a steady decline in the popularity of print media.
| False. Though newspapers are in decline, they are certainly not obsolete as of 2017.
|-
| Cosmetic surgery doubles
| {{w|Cosmetic Surgery}}
| False. According to the ASPS (American Society of Plastic Surgeons), 1.6 million cosmetic surgeries were performed in 2011, while 1.8 million were performed in 2017, an increase of only 0.2 million.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2018
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still false.
|-
| Jesus returns to Earth
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the second coming, the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible itself says that "no man can know the date". Several predicted dates have come and gone.
| False
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2019
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still false.
|-
| Every baby has genes mapped at birth
| {{w|Gene Mapping}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2020
| Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
| Scientists estimate that more than half of the {{w|fossil fuels}} in existence have already been found and that fossil fuel production will begin to decline due to the scarcity, causing prices to increase. At the same time, improvements in {{w|Solar Power|solar technology}} are causing the prices for solar energy to steadily decrease.
| True, though only in {{w|Cost of electricity by source#Recent_global_studies|certain cases}}.
|-
| Keyboards and mice become obsolete
| {{w|Computer input device}} are beginning to adopt other methods of input, such as voice commands, touch screens, and eye tracking. While the use of touch screens in particular is gaining widespread use, as of 2014 none has come close to making keyboards and mice obsolete. None of them allows text input as fast as a keyboard, and none is suitable for writing program code.
| False. While touchscreen devices ''are'' increasingly common, both laptop and desktop computers are still very much in use. Mice continue to be used alongside touchscreens and trackpads, and keyboards remain the dominant method of writing on computers.
|-
| New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
| A {{w|Tappan_Zee_Bridge#Replacement_bridge|replacement bridge}} was announced in 2008.
| Too late; completed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2021
| US debt reaches 97% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
| Too late; reached in 2011.
|-
| US unemployment falls to 2.8%
| {{w|Unemployment in the United States}}
|
|-
| Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
| A {{w|caliphate}} is a form of {{w|Islam|Islamic}} political-religious leadership, centred around a Caliph, or successor to the prophet {{w|Muhammad}}. This may be foreshadowing of the Islamic State of Iraq and greater Syria, which has as its goal the creation of a restored caliphate.
|
|-
| Lake Mead evaporates
| Formed by the {{w|Hoover Dam}} on the {{w|Colorado River}}, {{w|Lake Mead}} is the largest reservoir in the United States (measured by maximum capacity). It hasn't reached its capacity since 1983, due to drought and increased demand for water. This is linked to {{w|global warming}}.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2022
| Kilimanjaro snow-free
| At 5,895 metres, {{w|Kilimanjaro}} is the highest mountain in {{w|Africa}}, and the highest free-standing mountain in the world. Around 85% of its ice cover disappeared between 1912 and 2011, and it continues to recede.
|
|-
| HTML 5 finished
| The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) began work on {{w|HTML 5}} in 2004.
| Too late; 5.0 specification released in 2014, but incremental updates continue.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| This is the second time this prediction has appeared.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2023
| Jesus returns to Earth (again)
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the second coming, the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible itself says that "no man can know the date". Several predicted dates have come and gone.
|
|-
| US debt passes 100% of GDP
| This references the common fear that {{w|US Debt}} will exceed GDP, possibly causing [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble economic turmoil].
| Too late; reached in 2012.
|-
| All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
| Likely due to a combination of wildfire and {{w|deforestation}}
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2024
| Atlantis begins to reappear
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea.
|
|-
| Orangutans extinct in wild
| {{w|Orangutan|Orangutans}} are a species of great ape, currently classed as an {{w|endangered species}}, and found only in the {{w|Rainforest|rainforests}} of {{w|Borneo}} and {{w|Sumatra}}.
|
|-
| China lands men and women on the moon
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
|
|-
| NASA sets up permanent moon base
| There has been a lot of hype recently about finally returning to the moon, vis-a-vis Orion.
|
|-
| Female professionals pass males in pay
| There are two possible explanations for this entry: Either it's fear-mongering from misogynists or, more probably, an erroneous extrapolation from the current rate at which female incomes are catching up to male incomes.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2025
| World population reaches 8 billion
| Given current rates, it seems unlikely it will take this long to hit 8 billion, but advances in birth control options and especially their availability in developing nations may slow the current rate considerably.
|
|-
| Two billion people face water shortages
| http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/28-01-2008/103693-water_crisis-0/
|
|-
| 62 MPG cars introduced
| 62 miles per gallon, ~3.8 L/100km. 62 MPG is a very good mileage rate at today's standard, even though [http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=5231050&page=1 some cars can be driven carefully so as to attain over 100 MPG].
|
|-
| US power fades
| http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-us-power-will-fade-by-2025/
| Hard to know what the precise metric for this would be.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2026
| Atlantis emerges completely
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. It seems that it has taken 2 years for it to emerge completely.
|
|-
| Rock Bands die out
| https://bestbands.wordpress.com/2009/01/25/rock-bands-to-die-out-by-2026/
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}} [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/business/27view.html It’s 2026, and the Debt Is Due].
|
|-
| Car accidents cease
| Presumably, cars will be fully automated and able to pilot themselves at this point and will have fail-safes that prevent collisions currently attributed to user error. Car accidents will always be possible, however, due to mechanical and electrical failures.
|
|-
| West coast falls into ocean
| Most likely due to {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|a significant seismic event}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2027
| Japan introduces new fastest Maglev train
| Japan's railway systems are famous for their "bullet trains", or {{w|Shinkansen}}. The Chūō Shinkansen is planned to be opened in this year.
|
|-
| Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony is established
| http://totse.mattfast1.com/en/technology/space_astronomy_nasa/moonmars.html
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2028
| Tobacco outlawed
| Tobacco products (cigarettes and chewing tobacco) have become more and more taboo in modern culture, with most public places and private businesses forbidding their use indoors and near places children congregate.
|
|-
| 40% of coral reefs gone
| Many factors have been attributed to the decline of {{w|Coral_reef#Threats|coral reefs}}, including mining, over fishing, and rising ocean tempteratures.
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2029
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| Computers pass the Turing test
| It is no coincidence that 2029 is the timeline for Terminator Movies.
| Some computer programs already clear the Turing Test about 30% of the time.
|-
| Aging reversed
| Manhattan Beach Project to reverse aging by 2029
|
|-
| Wikipedia reaches 30 Million articles
|
| As of 00:00, 5 January 2015 (UTC), Wikipedia has over 34 million total articles, if all languages are included. The source being cited may have meant the English language Wikipedia, which has only 5.94 million articles, as of 1 October 2019.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2030
| Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
| WWF press release - [http://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/climate-change-speeds-up-amazon-s-destruction-says-wwf Climate Change Speeds Up Amazon’s Destruction] referring to a report on the [http://assets.panda.org/downloads/amazonas_eng_04_12b_web.pdf Amazon's vicious cycles] (PDF)
|
|-
| Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
| From the [http://www.cancer.org/myacs/newengland/global-cancer-burden-to-double-by-2030 Global Cancer Burden to Nearly Double by 2030] article about the article from page 37 of [http://www.cancer.org/research/cancerfactsfigures/globalcancerfactsfigures/global-facts-figures-2nd-ed Global Cancer Facts & Figures 2nd edition].
|
|-
| Arctic ice-free in summer
| http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-video-ap.html
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2031
| Computers controlled by thought
| http://www.gizmag.com/future-mobile-technology/17554/
| As of 2017, this is {{w|Brain–computer interface|already possible}}
|-
| Realtors replaced by technology
| http://agbeat.com/editorials/will-realtors-be-replaced-by-technology-by-the-year-2031/
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| http://crfb.org/blogs/cbo-95-percent-confident-social-security-trust-fund-runs-out-25-years
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2032
| "Big One" hits San Francisco
| http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Quake-scientists-predict-Big-One-likely-by-2032-2653745.php {{w|San Franscisco}} is located on the {{w|San Andreas Fault}}, which is predicted to produce a magnitude 7+ earthquake in the 'near future'. This event is referred to as {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|"The Big One"}}.
|
|-
| US elects first married lesbian President
| http://4chandata.org/g/In-what-major-ways-do-you-think-the-world-of-2032-will-be-different-from-that-of-today-a20155
|
|-
| Entire world converted to Christianity
| http://www.goddiscussion.com/38920/christian-domininionsts-to-take-over-the-world-by-2032/
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2033
| Kilimanjaro ice disappears
| http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/02/idUSL2210825
|
|-
| India becomes superpower
| https://www.facebook.com/pages/India-A-SuperPower-by-2033/151177191568098 ?
|
|-
| Europe reaches Mars
| [http://www.spacedaily.com/news/esa-general-03zb.html Specifically, a manned European mission]. ESA's {{w|Mars Express}} probe landed in 2003.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2034
| US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
| [http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/27/us-diabetes-usa-costs-idUSTRE5AQ0C220091127 U.S. diabetes cases to double, costs triple by 2034]
|
|-
| US builds autonomous robot army
| The concept of robots built for military service is another common element of science fiction stories. [http://www.aos-inc.com/index.php/medialias/press-releases?id=112 Unmanned Systems] article, about the [http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA522247 2009-2034 Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap] publication ([http://www.amazon.com/2009-Unmanned-Integrated-Aircraft-Technologies-ebook/dp/B0047743A0 details at Amazon])
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2035
| 80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
| From fact sheet on Obama's [http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/fact-sheet-state-union-president-obamas-plan-win-future State of the Union]
|
|-
| Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
| From an IPCC report on [https://web.archive.org/web/20100116132657/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html The Himalayan glaciers] that has been analysed in quite some depth. See for example detailed article on an [http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/02/anatomy-of-ipccs-himalayan-glacier-year-2035-mess/ anatomy of IPCC’s mistake].
|
|-
| Arctic sea lane opens
| [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/730ef8fe-27e1-11e0-8abc-00144feab49a.html#axzz3OBgEHYNY Arctic sea lane could open by 2035]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2036
| 80% of US has access to high-speed rail
| [http://www.wnyc.org/story/284946-obama-80-percent-of-americans-should-have-access-to-high-speed-rail-by-2036/ Obama: 80 Percent of Americans Should Have Access to High Speed Rail By 2036]
|
|-
| Asteroid Apophis misses/hits Earth
| http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ 99942 Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2037
| Arctic ice-free in September
| {{w|Arctic sea ice decline}}
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2038
| 32-bit timestamps roll over, causing Y2K-level chaos
| 03:14:07 UTC on 19 January 2038, the value of time_t rolls over, that is it will return to zero. time_t is a computing standard measurement of time; it is a count of the number of seconds since 00:00:00 UTC on 1 January 1970. time_t is used by most computer systems to store date and time information. It is recommended that new software should convert to a 64 bit time_t; indeed, most operating systems designed to run on 64-bit hardware already use signed 64-bit time_t integers. This would give an epoch of 15:30:08 UTC on 4 December 292,277,026,596 (292 billion years away). Of course, legacy systems may not be upgradable so action taken now should prevent this becoming a problem closer to 2038...
|
|-
| "Big One" hits California
| [http://www.presstelegram.com/technology/20080414/the-big-one-likely-to-hit-by-2038 `The big one' likely to hit by 2038]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2039
| US population hits 400 Million
| [http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2008/us400million.aspx U.S. Population Projected to Hit 400 Million in 2039]
|
|-
| Severe heat waves become commonplace
| [http://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/july/extreme-heat-study-070810.html Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds]
|
|-
| Scientology becomes majority religion in US
| [http://home.snafu.de/tilman/2039.html Essay: Scientology in the year 2039]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2040
| Arctic summers ice-free
| [http://www.livescience.com/9419-arctic-summer-ice-free-2040.html Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2040]
|
|-
| Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
| [http://www.computerworld.com/article/2528330/app-development/nanotech-could-make-humans-immortal-by-2040--futurist-says.html Nanotech could make humans immortal by 2040, futurist says]
|
|-
| 2041
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2043
| World population passes 9 Billion
| {{w|Population growth}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2044
| Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
| Premise of the movie [http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1363468/ Zenith] - further details are in the [http://www.filmjournal.com/filmjournal/content_display/esearch/e3i25130cd57f1590bda4527c098ac85b01 film review for Zenith]
|
|-
| Childhood obesity reaches 100%
| [http://www.ivanhoe.com/channels/p_channelstory.cfm?storyid=11414 100-Percent Childhood Obesity Predicted by 2044]
|
|-
| 2045
| Humans and machines merge
| Ray Kurzweil predicts of 'singularity' which will lead to race of super intelligent beings
|
|-
| 2046
| World's natural resources depleted
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2047
| World ruled by banks and corporations
| [http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Schlock-2047-RM-Krakoff-ebook/dp/B0039IT37Q Future Schlock] - the story of a world turned upside down in 2047
|
|-
| Tobacco industry fails
| [http://www.news.wisc.edu/16857 Experts: Big Tobacco dead by 2047, possibly sooner]
|
|-
| US begins using autonomous attack drones
| [http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/aug/22/us-air-force-drones-pilots-afghanistan US Air Force prepares drones to end era of fighter pilots]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2048
| Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
| WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ Unsustainable fishing]
|
|-
| Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
| [http://future.wikia.com/wiki/RyansWorld:_Bathing_Suits_of_the_Future RyansWorld: Bathing Suits of the Future]
|
|-
| Entire US population overweight
| Article archive - [https://web.archive.org/web/20090321075605/http://thestatsblog.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/scientists-say-thin-people-face-extinction-in-united-states-everyone-will-be-overweight-by-2048-%E2%80%93-and-less-smart Scientists Say Thin People Face Extinction in United States: Everyone Will Be Overweight by 2048 – And Less Smart]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2049
| $1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
| [http://www.americanbar.org/content/newsletter/publications/technology_e_report_home/2007_may_technotes.html TechNotes: Trends in Technology]
|
|-
| Singularity occurs
| [http://www.prismdecision.com/the-singularity-is-near The Singularity Is Near]
|
|-
| Fishing industry collapses
| This tends to happen when your food-stock is extinct - see WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ Unsustainable fishing]
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2050
| 80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
| [http://infochangeindia.org/population/books-a-reports/80-of-world-population-will-soon-be-in-urban-areas.html 80% of world population will soon be in urban areas]
|
|-
| China controls space
| [https://books.google.com/books?id=op851Uf99LQC&dq=China+controls+space+2050&source=gbs_navlinks_s Space Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050]
|
|-
| Sex with robots possible
| [http://www.livescience.com/1951-forecast-sex-marriage-robots-2050.html Forecast: Sex and Marriage with Robots by 2050]
|
|-
| Cars banned from European cities
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/8411336/EU-to-ban-cars-from-cities-by-2050.html EU to ban cars from cities by 2050]
|
|-
| One million species extinct from climate change
| [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/01/0107_040107_extinction.html By 2050 Warming to Doom Million Species, Study Says]
|
|-
| 2051
| Atmosphere escapes into space
| [http://www.thehulltruth.com/boating-outdoor-photos/255705-have-you-ever-seen-fallstreak-hole.html Conspiracy theory] relating to {{w|Fallstreak hole}} or hole punch clouds.
|
|-
| 2052
| Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2053
| US budget balanced
| [http://crfb.org/blogs/omb-releases-long-term-projections-fy2015-budget-proposal OMB releases long-term projections for the FY2015 budget proposal]
|
|-
| Majority of Americans in prison
| [http://articles.philly.com/1992-06-14/news/26032105_1_prison-officials-prison-time-prison-commissioners 'Beyond Bricks And Bars' As Jails Overflow, The Lock-'em-up Credo Is Drawing Unlikely Criticism - From Prison Officials Themselves]
|
|-
| Cars driven by dogs
|
| This has [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWAK0J8Uhzk already occurred] in 2012!
|-
| 2054
| Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
| [http://www.albionmonitor.com/0403a/earth2054.html Hunger Could Be 'Unimaginable' Global Problem By 2054]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2055
| Atmospheric CO2 doubled
| [http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/flash_intro.php Carbon Mitigation Initiative: Stabilization Wedges]
|
|-
| Oil runs out
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
| [http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/environment/5-valuable-metals-that-could-vanish-by-2055 5 Valuable Metals That Could Vanish by 2055]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2056
| RFID-tagged driverless cars
| [http://www.zdnet.com/article/rfid-tagged-driverless-cars-on-roads-by-2056/ RFID-tagged driverless cars on roads by 2056]
|
|-
| Robots given same rights as humans
| [http://www.cc.gatech.edu/news/robots-given-same-rights-humans-2056 Robots Given Same Rights As Humans By 2056]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2057
| 150 Japanese settlers on Mars
| [http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/9011051292/will-japan-colonize-mars Will Japan colonize Mars?]
|
|-
| Colorado River runs dry
| [http://news.agu.org/press-release/colorado-river-reservoirs-could-bottom-out-from-warming-business-as-usual/ Colorado River Reservoirs Could Bottom Out From Warming]
|
|-
| 2058
| Smoking ends in New Zealand
| [http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10698966 Smoking to die out in NZ by 2058]
|
|-
| 2059
| Humans have domesticated robots
| [http://diehardempiricist.blogspot.co.nz/2012/05/6-may-2011-virtual-necking-demography.html Virtual necking, demography, and robots]
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2060
| Human race lives in peace
| [http://www.arasfoundation.org/vision.html ARAS vision/mission]
|
|-
| Extreme droughts across much of Earth
| [http://wdas.cosmosmagazine.com/news/extreme-drought-across-most-earth-30-years/ Extreme drought across most of Earth by 2060]
|
|-
| Global temperature rise reaches 4 °C
| {{w|Avoiding dangerous climate change}}
|
|-
| Oil runs out again
| [http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/01/oil-may-run-out-by-2060-hsbc/?__lsa=98a7-5c61 Oil may run out by 2060: HSBC]
|
|-
| 2061
| Halley's comet returns
| Halley's comet returns to the inner solar system (the vicinity of earth and the sun) every 75.3 years. The last time it was near earth was in 1985-1986. When it next returns, its closest approach to the sun will occur on 28 July 2061.<ref name=horizons>[http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi Donald K. Yeomans. "Horizon Online Ephemeris System". California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 8 September 2006.]</ref>
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2062
| Uganda hosts World Cup
| [http://shillingscents.blogspot.co.nz/2010/07/uganda-to-host-world-cup-in-2062.html Uganda to host world cup in 2062]
|
|-
| The Jetsons
| {{w|The Jetsons}} was an animated science fiction sitcom that first aired in 1962. The show was set in the year 2062.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2063
| First human clones reach adulthood
| [http://au.ign.com/articles/2004/04/28/the-fall-last-days-of-gaia-diary-2 The Fall - Last Days of Gaia Diary #2]
|
|-
| Population of Moon reaches 100,000
| Reading Eagle newspaper article from July 17, 1963 - [http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1955&dat=19630717&id=PhgrAAAAIBAJ&sjid=B50FAAAAIBAJ&pg=4055,6599008 Moon Population of 100,000 Is Predicted for 2063] and [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Population of Mars reaches 10,000
| [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Spacecraft exceed speed of light
| Physics as currently understood states that it is impossible to exceed the speed of light. A monumental shift in our physics would have had to have occurred for this to come true. This is a reference to the 8th Star Trek feature Film: "Star Trek: First Contact" where Zefram Cochrane performs the first human Warp Flight on April 5, 2063.
|
|-
| 2064
| Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
| [http://www.cleanhouston.org/air/features/hazyfuture.htm State plan guarantees a hazy future for Texas’ wilderness areas]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2065
| Last coral reefs die out
| From an [http://www.edgeofexistence.org/coral_reef_conservation/coral_reef_video.php article about a video called Reefs on the Edge] set in 2065 where a 15-year-old girl tells her grandfather's stories of coral reefs, and their demise.
|
|-
| Chernobyl cleanup complete
| [http://rt.com/politics/chernobyl-clean-in-55-years-time/ Chernobyl clean in 55 years time?]
|
|-
| 2066
| Cyprus achieves its goal
| This is from some [http://www.cyprus-forum.com/cyprus33608-110.html#p665612 forum posts on the decendants of Cypriots] that lends support to the autonomy of Cyprus from Greek or Turkey.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2067
| Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
| The article at [http://blogs.lib.unc.edu/ncm/index.php/2013/11/15/artifact-of-the-month-slide-rule-1916/ Artifact of the Month: Slide rule, 1916] includes information from the International Slide Rule Museum that "in 1967, Keuffel & Esser Co. commissioned a study of the future, predicting that Americans in 2067 would live in domed cities and watch 3D television."
|
|-
| Redheads go extinct
| [http://science.howstuffworks.com/life/genetic/redhead-extinction.htm Are redheads going extinct?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2068
| Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
| [http://www.theozonehole.com/recovery.htm NASA Study Finds Clock Ticking Slower On Ozone Hole Recovery]
|
|-
| Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
| [http://myth-one.com/chapter_8.htm The Resurrections -- What Really Happens]
|
|-
| Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
| [http://thedailybanter.com/2013/01/alex-jones-the-government-is-trying-to-make-more-gay-people/ Alex Jones talks about chemicals that make people gay]
|
|-
| 2069
| Public masturbation legalized
| [http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/UnNews:It's_still_not_okay_to_Pull_Your_Penis_out_in_Public It's still not okay to Pull Your Penis out in Public]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2070
| World population peaks
| [http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1108-global-population-to-peak-in-2070.html Global population to peak in 2070]
|
|-
| City-scale flooding disasters
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthnews/3317033/City-scale-flooding-disasters-predicted-by-2070.html City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070]
|
|-
| 60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
| [http://www.ssisolarenergy.com/solar-alternative-energy/ What Is Alternative Energy All About?]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2071
| Europe's temperatures rise by 3 °C
| [http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/climate-energy/climate-change-adaptation/adaptation-tools/project-catalog/peseta-projection-of-economic-impacts-of-climate Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis]
|
|-
| World summer temperatures rise by 5 °C
| [http://www.climateadaptation.eu/denmark/climate-change/ See "Air temperature changes in the 21st century"]
|
|-
| 2072
| US retirement age is set to 75
| [http://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/articles/2012/06/11/how-high-will-the-retirement-age-go Up to 70-80 years]
|
|-
| 2073
| Oceans do not rise one foot
| [http://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm More like 2 feet]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2074
| Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
| [http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-8848188.html UK to have 1 million centenarians by 2074]
|
|-
| Supertyphoons hit Japan
| [http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/09/08/national/super-typhoons-in-store-as-seas-warm/ Super typhoons in store as seas warm]
|
|-
| 2075
| US retirement age set to 69
| [http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2010/1112/Retirement-age-at-69-Deficit-plan-hits-Social-Security Retirement age at 69? Deficit plan hits Social Security]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2076
| Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
| [https://doclib.uhasselt.be/dspace/bitstream/1942/871/1/yitzhaki373.PDF Multiple Authorship in Biochemistry and Other Fields] (PDF)
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2078
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The same prediction was made for 2017 and 2022. Even when most prognosticators agree that something will happen, there can still be much disagreement about ''when'' it will happen.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2079
| US debt reaches 716% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
| [http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2011/feb/climate-change-causing-demise-lodgepole-pine-western-north-america Climate change causing demise of lodgepole pine in western North America]
|
|-
| Floods commonplace
| [http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090108101627.htm Floods To Become Commonplace By 2080]
|
|-
| Religion marginalized
| http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-11347073
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2080
| Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
| [http://crfb.org/sites/default/files/our_debt_problems_are_far_from_solved_updated_2.pdf Our debt problems are far from solved] (PDF)
|
|-
| UK population doubles
| [http://forums.canadiancontent.net/international-politics/69603-britains-population-hit-110-million.html Britain's population to hit 110 million]
|
|-
| 2082
| World population declines to one billion
| [http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html Population: The Elephant in the Room]
|
|-
| 2084
| Robot policemen introduced
| [http://www.thetechherald.com/articles/Robotic-cops-set-to-stamp-out-crime-by-2084 Robotic cops set to stamp out crime by 2084]
|
|-
| 2085
| US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
| [http://moneybob.com/2010/06/28/paul-krugman-throws-in-towel-says-were-headed-for-another-depression/ Paul Krugman Throws In Towel, Says We’re Headed For Another Depression]
|
|-
| 2088
| Japan becomes all-robot country
| [http://www.theretributioners.tv/erics-blog/2009/11/25/-japan-to-become-all-robot-country-by-2088.html Japan To Become All Robot Country By 2088]
|
|-
| 2089
| World halts fossil fuel use
| {{w|Fossil Fuels}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2090
| Global warming hits 7 °C
| [http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/models-warn-of-7c-dangerous-climate-change-by-2090.html Models warn of 7C dangerous climate change by 2090]. Climate change, especially global warming, is a [[:Category:Climate change|recurring theme]] in xkcd.
|
|-
| Global warming hits 4 °C
| Summarized [http://www.global-warming-forecasts.com/2090-climate-change-global-warming-2090.php here]. In reference to Andy Bowers, “Analysis: Scientists say global warming could affect California's drinking water supply,” NPR All Things Considered, June 22, 2001
|
|-
| rowspan="11"| 2100
| Global warming around 5-7 °C
| [http://grist.org/article/bau-fd/ Hadley Center study warns of ‘catastrophic’ 5-7°C warming by 2100 on current emissions path]
|
|-
| Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
| {{w|Future sea level}}
|
|-
| Joshua trees nearly extinct
| [http://news.discovery.com/earth/joshua-trees-climate-change-110325.htm Joshua Trees Nearly Wiped Out by 2100?]
|
|-
| Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
| [http://www.pnas.org/content/107/2/576 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100]
|
|-
| Germany tropical
| [http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/climate-change-predictions-a-tropical-germany-by-2100-a-463378.html Climate Change Predictions: A Tropical Germany by 2100?]
|
|-
| Emperor penguins extinct
| [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7851276.stm Emperor penguins face extinction]
|
|-
| Arctic permafrost thaws
| [http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/surface-permafrost-could/ Surface Permafrost Could Disappear by 2100]
|
|-
| Rising seas flood coastal cities
| [http://uanews.org/story/rising-seas-will-affect-major-us-coastal-cities-2100 Rising Seas Will Affect Major U.S. Coastal Cities by 2100]
|
|-
| Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
| [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/08/06/890970/-Massive-Loss-of-Rainforest-Species-by-2100-eKos-Earthship-Friday Massive Loss of Rainforest Species by 2100]
|
|-
| All coral reefs gone
| [http://planetsave.com/2010/10/15/coral-reefs-gone-by-2100/ Coral Reefs Gone by 2100?]
|
|-
| Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
| Each iteration of the Gillette line of safety razors has one more blade than the previous one. MadTV has also [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FAP8o5ZEo0 parodied] this. Over five years before MadTV did so, the Australian comedy group the D-Generation parodied the first two-bladed razor as the [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YleuLyCUx28 Gillette 3000] with 16 blades.
|
|-
| 2101
| WAR WAS BEGINNING
| References {{w|Zero Wing}}, a 1989 Japanese computer game set in 2101, famous for poorly translated English and the source for "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}".
|
|}
<references/>

==Transcript==

:<big>'''THE FUTURE'''</big>
:'''According to Google search results'''
:Events for each year determined by the first page of Google search results for the phrases:
:"By <year>" "In year"
:"By the year <year>" "In the year <year>"
:"Will * by the year <year>" "Will * in the year <year>"
:"In <year>, * will" "By <year>, * will"
:
:;2012
::World population reaches 7 billion
::Flying cars reach market
::Canada cuts greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels as per Kyoto
::Apocalypse occurs
:;2013
::National debt paid off through President Clinton's plans
::Microchipping of all Americans begins
::Homelessness ended in Massachusetts
::Health care reform law repealed
:;2014
::US leaves Afghanistan
::GNU/Linux becomes dominant OS
:;2015
::New Horizons reaches Pluto
::Health care law causes hyperinflation
::192 UN member nations achieve millennium development goals:
::*Extreme poverty and hunger eradicated
::*Universal primary education implemented
::*Women empowered, gender equality reached
::*Environmental stability ensured
:;2016
::Baby boomers begin turning 65
::Android takes 38% of the smartphone market
::Android takes 45% of the smartphone market
::Windows Phone overtakes iOS in smartphones
:;2017
::China completes unmanned Lunar sample-return mission
::Social Security stops running surplus
::US budget balanced
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
::Cosmetic surgery doubles
:;2018
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Jesus returns to Earth
:;2019
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Every baby has genes mapped at birth
:;2020
::Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
::Keyboards and mice become obsolete
::New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
:;2021
::US debt reaches 97% of GDP
::US unemployment falls to 2.8%
::Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
::Lake Mead evaporates
:;2022
::Kilimanjaro snow-free
::HTML 5 finished
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2023
::Jesus returns to Earth (again)
::US debt passes 100% of GDP
::All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
:;2024
::Atlantis begins to reappear
::Orangutans extinct in wild
::China lands men and women on the moon
::NASA sets up permanent moon base
::Female professionals pass males in pay
:;2025
::World population reaches 8 billion
::Two billion people face water shortages
::62 MPG cars introduced
::US power fades
:;2026
::Atlantis emerges completely
::Rock Bands die out
::US debt paid off
::Car accidents cease
::West coast falls into ocean
:;2027
::Japan introduces new fastest maglev train
::Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony established
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2028
::Tobacco outlawed
::40% of coral reefs gone
::US debt paid off
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2029
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
::Computers pass the Turing Test
::Aging reversed
::Wikipedia reaches 30 million articles
:;2030
::Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
::Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
::Arctic ice-free in summer
:;2031
::Computers controlled by thought
::Realtors replaced by technology
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2032
::"Big One" hits San Francisco
::US elects first married lesbian president
::Entire world converted to Christianity
:;2033
::Kilimanjaro ice disappears
::India becomes superpower
::Europe reaches Mars
:;2034
::US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
::US builds autonomous robot army
:;2035
::80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
::Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
::Arctic sea lane opens
:;2036
::80% of US has access to high-speed rail
::Asteroid Apophis hits/misses Earth
:;2037
::Arctic ice-free in September
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2038
::32-bit timestamps role over, causing Y2K-level chaos
::"Big One" hits California
:;2039
::US population hits 400 million
::Severe heat waves become commonplace
::Scientology becomes majority religion in US
:;2040
::Arctic summers ice-free
::Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
:;2041
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2042
:;2043
::World population passes 9 billion
:;2044
::Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
::Childhood obesity reaches 100%
:;2045
::Humans and machines merge
:;2046
::World's natural resources depleted
:;2047
::World ruled by banks and corporations
::Tobacco industry fails
::US begins using autonomous attack drones
:;2048
::Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
::Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
::Entire US population overweight
:;2049
::$1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
::Singularity occurs
::Fishing industry collapses
:;2050
::80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
::China controls space
::Sex with robots possible
::Cars banned from European cities
::One million species extinct from climate change
:;2051
::Atmosphere escapes into space
:;2052
::Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
:;2053
::US budget balanced
::Majority of Americans in prison
::Cars driven by dogs
:;2054
::Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
:;2055
::Atmospheric CO2 doubled
::Oil runs out
::Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
:;2056
::RFID-tagged driverless cars
::Robots given same rights as humans
:;2057
::150 Japanese settlers on Mars
::Colorado River runs dry
:;2058
::Smoking ends in New Zealand
:;2059
::Humans have domesticated robots
:;2060
::Human race lives in peace
::Extreme droughts across much of Earth
::Global temperature rise reaches 4°C
::Oil runs out again
:;2061
::Halley's comet returns
:;2062
::Uganda hosts World Cup
::The Jetsons
:;2063
::First human clones reach adulthood
::Population of Moon reaches 100,000
::Population of Mars reaches 10,000
::Spacecraft exceed speed of light
:;2064
::Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
:;2065
::Last coral reefs die out
::Chernobyl cleanup complete
:;2066
::Cyprus achieves its goal
:;2067
::Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
::Redheads go extinct
:;2068
::Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
::Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
::Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
:;2069
::Public masturbation legalized
:;2070
::World population peaks
::City-scale flooding disasters
::60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
:;2071
::Europe's temperatures rise by 3°C
::World summer temperatures rise by 5°C
:;2072
::US retirement age is set to 75
:;2073
::Oceans do not rise one foot
:;2074
::Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
::Supertyphoons hit Japan
:;2075
::US retirement age set to 69
:;2076
::Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2077
:;2078
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2079
::US debt reaches 716% of GDP
::Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
::Floods commonplace
::Religion marginalized
:;2080
::Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
::UK population doubles
:;2081
:;2082
::World population declines to one billion
:;2083
:;2084
::Robot policemen introduced
:;2085
::US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
:;2086
:;2087
:;2088
::Japan becomes all-robot country
:;2089
::World halts fossil fuel use
:;2090
::Global warming hits 7°C
::Global warming hits 4°C
:;2091
:;2092
:;2093
:;2094
:;2095
:;2096
:;2097
:;2098
:;2099
:;2100
::Global warming around 5-7°C
::Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
::Joshua trees nearly extinct
::Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
::Germany tropical
::Emperor penguins extinct
::Arctic permafrost thaws
::Rising seas flood coastal cities
::Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
::All coral reefs gone
::Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
:;2101
::WAR WAS BEGINNING

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Large drawings]]
[[Category:Timelines]]
[[Category:Google Search]]
[[Category:Climate change]]
[[Category:Singularity]]
[[Category:Renewable energy]]
[[Category:Smartphones]]
[[Category:Wikipedia]]

210: 90's Flowchart

2020-12-04T15:27:40Z

162.158.63.196:

{{comic
| number = 210
| date = January 15, 2007
| title = 90's Flowchart
| image = 90s_flowchart.png
| titletext = Freestyle rapping is basically applied Markov chains.
}}

== Explanation ==

Here you can see an apparent flowchart. However, it has non-standard notation. The oval normally represents either the start or stop of a process. Here, both the ''yes'' and ''no'' end up in ''stop'', which would normally imply that nothing below can be reached.

Unless we are in the '90s, this doesn't matter, as there is nothing after the stop. But in the '90s, two processing paths follow, and both are from the lyrics of two hit rap songs from the '90s:
*''{{w|U Can't Touch This}}'' by {{w|MC Hammer}}, says "Break it down. Stop! Hammertime."
*''{{W|Ice Ice Baby}}'' by {{w|Vanilla Ice}} says "All right, stop. Collaborate and listen."

In both instances, the sense of the lyric is that you should interrupt what you are doing, and switch to the new action. Interpreted in terms of flowchart terminology, we could consider that the 'stop' just pauses the main thread, and secondary threads are launched to perform the 'Hammertime' and the 'Collaborate' and 'Listen' activities.

The title text compares {{w|freestyle rapping}} with {{w|Markov chain|Markov chains}}. Markov chains are mathematical constructs in which the state at the next time step is dependent only upon the current state and probability, and not the state at previous times. This is somewhat similar to freestyle rapping, in which what is said next must bear some relationship to what was just said, but the "freestyle" part means that almost anything can be brought in (hence the probabilistic part); furthermore, freestyle rapping allows the rapper to say something next that bears relationship to what was just said, but not to what was said before that.
There have been several flowchart comics, all of which are listed [[:Category:Flowcharts|here]].

Both ''Ice Ice Baby'' and ''U Can't Touch This'' were released in the year 1990, which was arguably not really part of the 90s. This topic would be touched upon [[2249|nearly 2000 comics later]].
== Transcript ==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:90's Flowchart
:Start: The 90's?
:No: Stop
:Yes: Stop
::Hammertime
::or
::Collaborate, Listen

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Flowcharts]]
[[Category:Music]]

210: 90's Flowchart

2020-12-04T15:27:20Z

162.158.63.196:

{{comic
| number = 210
| date = January 15, 2007
| title = 90's Flowchart
| image = 90s_flowchart.png
| titletext = Freestyle rapping is basically applied Markov chains.
}}

== Explanation ==

Here you can see an apparent flowchart. However, it has non-standard notation. The oval normally represents either the start or stop of a process. Here, both the ''yes'' and ''no'' end up in ''stop'', which would normally imply that nothing below can be reached.

Unless we are in the '90s, this doesn't matter, as there is nothing after the stop. But in the '90s, two processing paths follow, and both are from the lyrics of two hit rap songs from the '90s:
*''{{w|U Can't Touch This}}'' by {{w|MC Hammer}}, says "Break it down. Stop! Hammertime."
*''{{W|Ice Ice Baby}}'' by {{w|Vanilla Ice}} says "All right, stop. Collaborate and listen."

In both instances, the sense of the lyric is that you should interrupt what you are doing, and switch to the new action. Interpreted in terms of flowchart terminology, we could consider that the 'stop' just pauses the main thread, and secondary threads are launched to perform the 'Hammertime' and the 'Collaborate' and 'Listen' activities.

The title text compares {{w|freestyle rapping}} with {{w|Markov chain|Markov chains}}. Markov chains are mathematical constructs in which the state at the next time step is dependent only upon the current state and probability, and not the state at previous times. This is somewhat similar to freestyle rapping, in which what is said next must bear some relationship to what was just said, but the "freestyle" part means that almost anything can be brought in (hence the probabilistic part); furthermore, freestyle rapping allows the rapper to say something next that bears relationship to what was just said, but not to what was said before that.
There have been several flowchart comics, all of which are listed [[:Category:Flowcharts|here]].

Both ''Ice Ice Baby'' and ''U Can't Touch This'' were released in the year 1990, which was arguably not really part of the 90s. This topic would be touched upon [[2249 nearly 2000 comics later]].
== Transcript ==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:90's Flowchart
:Start: The 90's?
:No: Stop
:Yes: Stop
::Hammertime
::or
::Collaborate, Listen

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Flowcharts]]
[[Category:Music]]

2380: Election Impact Score Sheet

2020-11-04T18:33:46Z

162.158.63.196: /* Table */

{{comic
| number = 2380
| date = November 2, 2020
| title = Election Impact Score Sheet
| image = election_impact_score_sheet.png
| titletext = You might think most people you know are reliable voters, or that your nudge won't convince them, and you will usually be right. But some small but significant percentage of the time, you'll be wrong, and that's why this works.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by SOMEONE NOT IN ARIZONA. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic was published the day before {{w|Election day in the United States}} (November 3, 2020), which features a contentious {{w|2020 United States presidential election|presidential election}} between the incumbent, President {{w|Donald Trump}}, and the challenger, former Vice President {{w|Joe Biden}}. The United States does not elect presidents by popular vote, but instead uses an {{w|United States Electoral College|electoral college}} system, with each state getting a predetermined number of electoral votes, and a majority of electoral votes needed to win an election. The previous presidential election in 2016, which involved Trump and {{w|Hillary Clinton}}, was won by Trump, who lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points, but won the electoral vote 304-227 (270 was needed to win the election).

Electoral college votes are distributed based on the number of congressional representatives of each state, with the most populous state, California, receiving 55 votes, and the least populous states which are Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming receiving 3 votes each. Because the United States Congress has two legislative houses, with only one (the House of Representatives) apportioning representatives to the states based on their percentage of the US population and the other (the Senate) allocating two senators to every state regardless of population, smaller states have a higher ratio of electoral college votes to population than larger states do.

Additionally, most states (all but Nebraska and Maine) give all of their electoral college votes to whoever earns the most votes in their state. This means that a small change in the percentage of voters who favor one party's candidate over another within a state doesn't make a difference on the final outcome unless that change tips the scales between the two candidates. Therefore, it's easy to predict the final electoral college votes of many states where one party has a clear lead. Other states, including some of the ones listed by Randall, are considered "{{w|swing state}}s", as they are competitive to both of the two major parties, the {{w|Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party}} and the {{w|Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic Party}}.

Together, these factors make voting in some states - "swing states" with smaller populations - much more likely to influence the outcome of the election than others. Randall in this comic is encouraging his readers to "{{w|get out the vote}}" and encourage voting among their friends and family who live in 18 of these states which are most likely to affect the outcome of the election. The rest of the 32 states are grouped under the "all other states" bucket, presumably as their election outcome is "safely" for Biden or Trump.

Per many analysts, the state of {{w|Pennsylvania}} is considered an absolute necessity for Trump, and considered very important for Biden. This is why Pennsylvania is weighted the most heavily in Randall's comic.

Of course, just because a state may be a clear win for one party does not mean the votes of anyone who votes for the other party are wasted. A higher percentage of voters voting for the losing candidate sends a signal that the state is more competitive than assumed, which forces representatives to compromise and could make future voters more likely to show up because they believe their vote is more likely to matter. Additionally, many "down-ballot" races, like races for governorships, US Congress, state legislatures, and county governments, may be more competitive than the presidential race, and may have just as much or more impact on most people's lives. Randall accounts for some of these local races in deciding how to rank the states on the scoresheet.

The text at the bottom says to post your scoresheet with ''#Hashtag''. The "#" symbol is typically pronounced "hashtag", and so this tag for the scoresheet is nonsensical ("HashtagHashtag"), and doesn't describe anything useful. It also refers to Nate Silver's famous election forecast model at {{w|FiveThirtyEight}}. Randall closes by urging people to contact Nate Silver to tell him to adjust his model to account for the added votes they have caused, but as the form doesn't indicate which candidate the filler has voted for or plans to vote for, never mind the people contacted, there's no way for him to know what sort of update to make. Perhaps the flurry of posts bearing the hashtag "#Hashtag" and indicating an effort to increase civic engagement will be a heartwarming surprise on a day that will probably be very busy and stressful for him.

The title text explains that even if one thinks that their family and friends always vote, or that their reminder to vote won't work, they should do so anyway because of the chance they may be wrong.

As shown in previous comics ([[1756: I'm With Her]] and others), Randall was a supporter of 2016 candidate {{w|Hillary Clinton}} (who ran against Trump), but this assesment should be equally applicable to supporters of either of the two main candidates in the current presidential race.

The comic includes a link for a printable version: https://xkcd.com/2380/election_impact_score_sheet.pdf

===Table===
{| class = "wikitable"
! State
! Bonus
! Electoral votes
! Explanation
|-
|Pennsylvania
|x5
|20
|Pennsylvania is considered an absolute necessity for Trump, and considered very important for Biden. Pre-election polling showed Biden leading by 3 points.
|-
|Maine
|rowspan="3"|x4
|4
|Maine is worth 4 electoral votes, but awards 2 based on the statewide popular vote and 1 vote each for the winners of its 2 congressional districts.
|-
|Arizona
|11
|Arizona is not typically a swing state, as it usually votes for the Republican Party candidate. However, it is considered a swing state this year, with Joe Biden leading by 2 percentage points in pre-election polling.
|-
|Nevada
|6
|
|-
|Alaska
|rowspan="3"|x3
|3
|
|-
|Montana
|3
|
|-
|New Mexico
|5
|
|-
|Wisconsin
|rowspan="7"|x2
|10
|Wisconsin was surprisingly won by Trump in 2016, as pre-election polling had him trailing by 6-7 percentage points. Polling for the 2020 election favored Biden by 7 percentage points.
|-
|Minnesota
|10
|Minnesota was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, but by a close margin of 1.5 percentage points. Polling for 2020 has Biden favored by 7 percentage points.
|-
|Iowa
|6
|
|-
|North Carolina
|15
|North Carolina is not typically a swing state, as it usually votes for the Republican Party candidate. However, it is considered a swing state this year.
|-
|New Hampshire
|4
|
|-
|Georgia
|16
|Georgia is not typically a swing state, as it usually votes for the Republican Party candidate. However, it is considered a swing state this year.
|-
|Nebraska
|5
|Like Maine, Nebraska splits up its votes, awarding 2 votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote, and 1 each for the winners of its 3 congressional districts.
|-
|Michigan
|rowspan="5"|x1
|16
|Michigan was also surprisingly won by Trump in 2016, as he was also trailing in pre-election polling. Biden has a 6 point lead in polling in 2020.
|-
|Florida
|29
|With 29 electoral votes, Florida has the 3rd most electoral votes to be distributed. It is also typically a swing state and determines the winner of an election.
|-
|Kansas
|6
|
|-
|Mississippi
|6
|
|-
|Colorado
|9
|
|-
|All other states
|x1/2
|''varies''
|Randall considers other states as less important than the above 18 in influencing the outcome of the presidential election.
|}

==Transcript==
<big>Do you know anyone in Arizona?</big>

Research shows that reminders from friends and family to vote have a bigger effect on turnout than anything campaigns do.

One of the best ways you can help is to scroll through your contacts (or use apps like VoteWithMe) to find people you can check in with to see if they plan to vote or need help doing it.

This chart lets you tally the effect of your reminders on the outcome based on who you've contacted and where they live.

<big>Election impact score sheet</big>

{| class = "wikitable"
! State
! Check-ins
! Bonus*
! Points
|-
|Pennsylvania
|
|x5
|
|-
|Maine Arizona Nevada
|
|x4
|
|-
|Alaska Montana New Mexico
|
|x3
|
|-
|Wisconsin Minnesota Iowa North Carolina New Hampshire Georgia Nebraska
|
|x2
|
|-
|Michigan Florida Kansas Mississippi Colorado
|
|x1
|
|-
|All other states
|
|x½
|
|-
| colspan="3" align="right" | '''Your election impact:'''
|
|}

<nowiki>*</nowiki>Multiplier based on 538 presidential vote impact, plus points for senate and local elections

''In smaller text, to the right of the main score sheet, a duplicate of the score sheet with red tally marks and points is shown''

{| class = "wikitable"
! State
! Check-ins
! Bonus*
! Points
|-
|Pennsylvania
| (2 tally marks)
|x5
| 10
|-
|Maine Arizona Nevada
| (1 tally mark)
|x4
| 4
|-
|Alaska Montana New Mexico
| (1 tally mark)
|x3
| 3
|-
|Wisconsin Minnesota Iowa North Carolina New Hampshire Georgia Nebraska
| (3 tally marks)
|x2
| 6
|-
|Michigan Florida Kansas Mississippi Colorado
|
|x1
|
|-
|All other states
| (6 tally marks)
|x½
| 3
|-
| colspan="3" align="right" | '''Your election impact:'''
|26
|}

''Followed by an arrow, pointing to the "Your election impact" total box in the main table, is this text''

Based on turnout experiments, 10 points on this scale has roughly as much effect on the outcome as one average vote. For every 10 points you tally, it's as if you voted again!

''Below the main score sheet table''

 [Click for printable version]

Share a pic of your score sheet with ''#Hashtag'', and be sure to send a copy to Nate Silver to let him know to include those extra votes in his model!

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Nate Silver]]
[[Category:Comics with color]]

1584: Moments of Inspiration

2020-10-27T21:15:37Z

162.158.63.196: This needed a 'citation needed'

{{comic
| number = 1584
| date = September 30, 2015
| title = Moments of Inspiration
| image = moments_of_inspiration.png
| titletext = Charles, I just talked to John and Mildred, who run that company selling seeds and nuts, and their kids with MOUTHS are starving!
}}

==Explanation==
{{w|Isaac Newton}}'s original examples describing the {{w|Newton's law of universal gravitation|force of gravity}} show an apple falling from a tree in order to explain why the apple falls toward the Earth, instead of the Earth falling toward the apple. He is often said to have been inspired by watching {{w|Isaac_Newton#Apple_incident|falling apple}}s; in common folklore this developed into the legend that he was actually ''struck'' by an apple. The first part of this comic retells that famous legend. The later panels depict similar (but more and more implausible) legends that could emerge if we were to assume that other scientists' most famous examples and discoveries were based on actually observing some mundane everyday event taking place.

In the first situation we not only see the apple fall on Newton's head, we also see the Moon. This was one of the first astronomical objects on which he used his theory of gravity. He calculated its orbit around the Earth and found that it fit with the theory.

In the second situation Cueball throws a baseball towards {{w|Lise Meitner}}, but when she fails to catch the ball it hits one of her porcelain model-atoms. In this way Meitner discovered a way to split the atom. Cueball may represent {{w|Otto Hahn}}, since they were part of the Hahn-Meitner-Strassmann team that worked on this problem. Hahn was later awarded the Nobel Prize for Chemistry, where Meitner was overlooked. Throwing something at someone and asking them to [http://forum.wordreference.com/threads/think-fast-throwing-something.1984437/ think fast] is a common "joke", where the receiver rarely has a chance to actually catch the object. But in this case it could also be a reference to the fact that she then thought fast then made a major discovery. Or if it is Hahn, then he thought faster and got the award instead of her. The porcelain models might also be a reference to {{w|Meissen porcelain}}, in German called "Meißner Porzellan", where "Meißner" is phonetically very similar to "Meitner". (Meitner has previously been mentioned in the comic [[896: Marie Curie]], which more or less explains why [[Randall]] did not choose the more famous {{w|Marie Curie}} as the female example in this comic. Meitner is not very well known in the public, compared to the three men or Curie, but this may exactly be the point for choosing her. She should have been just as famous considering what splitting the atoms has been {{w|Nuclear power|leading}} {{w|Nuclear weapon|to}}!) Also, there's not much in Marie's story that could be put down to fanciful anecdote. "All" she did was extract a few chemicals and study their properties.

In the third situation it is indicated that half of {{w|Charles Darwin}}'s children had {{w|beaks}}, a property not normally found in human children{{Citation needed}}. This would make it very difficult for them to drink soda from a glass or through a straw, compared to his normal children with mouths. Based on this assumption he developed his ideas about natural selection and {{w|evolution}}. The comic is unclear on whether this makes them more or less fit to survive and reproduce. This is a reference to Darwin's initial findings on the {{w|HMS Beagle}} on how {{w|Galapagos}} {{w|finches}} with differently shaped beaks are better suited for specific types of food, and therefore are better selected for in environments where those foods are available. The title text furthers this, see below. Darwin later in life feared that having married his cousin since their {{w|consanguinity}} would increase the risk that {{w|Charles_Darwin#Children|his children}} would be born with birth defects (although he did not fear that they would be born with beaks). The difficulty caused by beaks when drinking liquids could be a reference to the Aesop's fable ''{{w|The Fox and the Stork}}''.

In the fourth situation {{w|Albert Einstein}} remarks to a man that it's annoying that the man's twin brother keeps flashing a light from a train when Einstein is trying to check his clock. He then comes to a sudden revelation. This references several of Einstein's (separate—it makes little sense together in this manner) thought experiments on {{w|special relativity}}, such as the {{w|twin paradox}} (the twin on the train should be younger after decelerating to a stop), a clock built from a beam of light, the {{w|time dilation}} experienced by the observer in the moving {{w|frame of reference}}, and the various constructs involving {{w|Einstein's thought experiments#Trains, embankments, and lightning flashes|trains and light(ning) flashes}} used to illustrate the {{w|relativity of simultaneity}}.

In the title text there is a description of how beaks rather than mouths are more useful when the foods have shells that need to be cracked open like nuts and seeds. Here it is clear that in the John and Mildred family you starve if you cannot eat the bird food, and thus it would be an advantage to have a beak for survival instead of a normal mouth. "John" and "Mildred" may be Mildred and {{w|John T. Scopes}} of the famous 1925 "{{w|Scopes Trial|monkey trial}}" in which John was fined $100 for teaching evolution in a Tennessee school.

==Trivia==
This comic appeared on xkcd's ten-year anniversary

==Transcript==
:[Isaac Newton, with curly long hair, sits under a tree. A waning crescent moon can be seen. An apple falls and hits him on the head. There is a caption in a frame that breaks the top border of the main frame:]
:Isaac Newton
:Apple falling: Bonk
:Isaac Newton: ''Ow!''

:[Isaac Newton rubs his sore head.]
:Isaac Newton: Aha!

:[Cueball throws a baseball towards Lise Meitner with short dark hair. (The ball can be seen in the next frame). She turns towards him too late to react and completely fails to even try catching the ball. There is a caption in a frame that breaks the top border of the main frame:]
:Lise Meitner
:Cueball: Hey Lise! Think fast!
:Ball hitting something (off-screen): Crash

:[Lise takes her hands to her mouth and she watches the broken porcelain atom lying in two pieces on the floor where it has fallen of a desk. On the desk three other intact atoms can be seen. The baseball lies behind her.]
:Lise Meitner: Oh no! My collection of porcelain atoms!
:Lise Meitner:...Hmm.

:[Four kids are standing in front of Megan and Charles Darwin (with a big beard and hair behind the ears). All the kids are trying to drink a glass of soda with a straw in them. The first kid is a boy with dark flat hair and sips soda through the straw with his mouth. The next kid is a boy with standing black hair, he tries in wain to drink with his beak open on each side of the glass. The third kid is a girl with her hair in a bun. She tries to get her beak into the glass which she has put on the floor. The last kid is a boy version of Cueball who slurps his soda through the straw. There is a caption in a frame that breaks the top border of the main frame:]
:Charles Darwin
:Megan: I gave our kids soda, but the ones with beaks always have trouble drinking it.
:Charles Darwin: I've noticed that...
:Boy with flat dark hair: Sip sip
:Boy with standing black hair and a beak: Crunch
:Girl with her hair in a bun and a beak: Peck peck
:Cueball like kid: Sluurp

:[A hairy guy is standing in front of Albert Einstein (with wild hair and a moustache), who is holding one hand to his head and has a clock in his other hand. Behind them is a train, with a locomotive at the front and a wagon behind that stretches beyond the frame. Another hairy guy has his head out of the front window of the wagon and is flashing a light towards the other two. In the next three windows can be seen passengers, two with Cueball like heads and one with hair. There is a caption in a frame that breaks the top border of the main frame:]
:Albert Einstein
:Albert Einstein: I wish your twin brother would stop shining lights at us from that train. I can barely see my clock!
:Albert Einstein: ...Wait!

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]]
[[Category:Science]]
[[Category:Physics]]
[[Category:Biology]]
[[Category:Multiple Cueballs]]

Talk:2083: Laptop Issues

2020-09-30T17:35:52Z

162.158.63.196:

Please provide links to https://xkcd.com/1084/ and https://xkcd.com/1586/ (unsigned by IP 172.68.65.150
:Perhaps also [[1760: TV Problems]] and [[1739: Fixing Problems]] and [[806: Tech Support]]? [[User:Quiddity|Quiddity]] ([[User talk:Quiddity|talk]]) 05:17, 12 December 2018 (UTC)

I would recommend an exorcism for the laptop. 19:28, 10 December 2018 (UTC)

Has Randall been reading Charles Stross's "The Laundry Files"? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.89.223|162.158.89.223]] 19:57, 10 December 2018 (UTC)
:Or his neighbor is Harry Dresden.

We had a few people like this at my last job. In addition to all their problems they refused to let us give them a new laptop and insisted we keep trying to fix the ghosts in their current laptop [[Special:Contributions/172.68.58.83|172.68.58.83]] 21:18, 10 December 2018 (UTC)

Might this be inspired by the recent revelation that Apple Store employees are not allowed to to use the word "problem": https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/dec/03/claps-and-cheers-apple-stores-carefully-managed-drama [[Special:Contributions/162.158.106.96|162.158.106.96]] 22:05, 10 December 2018 (UTC)

Closer reference to https://xkcd.com/349/ than 1912 was to 349 --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.59.84|172.68.59.84]] 22:53, 10 December 2018 (UTC)

It is possible (if rather rare) that there's an error on a computers logic board, that causes it to fry batteries extremely fast

"(...) and safely dispose of it." - '''Is there''' a truly safe way to dispose of '''this''' laptop? I can't think of one.--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.90.90|162.158.90.90]] 09:41, 11 December 2018 (UTC)

This laptop can only be destroyed by throwing it into the fires of Mount Doom
[[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.45|162.158.158.45]] 10:39, 11 December 2018 (UTC)

--Shouldn't that be "...the fires of Mount Dell, from which it was forged?" [[Special:Contributions/172.68.58.83|172.68.58.83]] 16:52, 11 December 2018 (UTC)

:Andromeda Galaxy is on collision course with ours. It has black hole in it's center. I think that throwing the laptop there should be safe enough. I mean, maybe it will solve the problem with collision ... -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 00:42, 12 December 2018 (UTC)

::No, we need to put it in quarantine WITH a black hole and mount Doom/Dell. [[User:Nyx goddess|Nyx goddess]] ([[User talk:Nyx goddess|talk]]) 01:54, 12 December 2018 (UTC)

Could the glasses be a refence to the hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy? [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_in_The_Hitchhiker%27s_Guide_to_the_Galaxy#Joo_Janta_200_Super-Chromatic_Peril_Sensitive_Sunglasses] [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.28|141.101.98.28]] 09:43, 14 December 2018 (UTC)

Is it just me or when they said photographic i thought they said pornographic?

2362: Volcano Dinosaur

2020-09-22T23:45:58Z

162.158.63.196:

{{comic
| number = 2362
| date = September 21, 2020
| title = Volcano Dinosaur
| image = volcano_dinosaur.png
| titletext = Phylogeneticists are working on identifying and notifying its next of kin.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a SLOWLY RECOVERING DINOSAUR. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic is a reference to [https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/new-dinosaur-discovered-china-volcano-b511774.html this discovery] of [https://peerj.com/articles/9832/ dinosaur fossils that were buried and killed by a volcanic eruption], similar to what occurred in {{w|Pompeii}} in the first century AD.

Facetiously, Megan asks if the dinosaur was okay. As living things typically don't survive being fossilized in volcano debris{{Citation needed}}, the answer to the question would obviously be "no", but Cueball replies that he is unsure. Even if the dinosaur somehow survived the initial burial, it would be impossible for it to survive buried for 125 million years{{Citation needed}}. The question hilights both the culture's poor understanding of volcanoes, and of dinosaurs, as well as our great care for only the living creatures we happen to learn about and discuss. Additionally, Randall could have been influenced by stereotypes of women he's been exposed to.

Megan's response is natural and expected in many situations when hearing of a person or creature experiencing misfortune. The humour here comes from the inaptness of asking the question millions of years after the event. Rather than responding to the ridiculousness of Megan's question, Cueball takes it seriously, and deadpans that he can't tell.

The title text suggests contacting its "{{w|next of kin}}", which usually means a nearest living relative, e.g. a brother or a sister. The process of identifying and contacting next of kin is a standard step performed by authorities in the event of a death being discovered. In this case, dinosaurs are extinct, so it is the job of {{w|Phylogenetics|phylogeneticist}}s (those who study evolutionary relationships) to determine which living animal (presumably a bird of some kind) is the "nearest relative" to the deceased dinosaurs.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[Megan is standing facing right, talking to Cueball who is sitting at a computer desk and also facing right, looking at a computer screen.]
:Cueball: Oh cool, they just found a dinosaur that was buried by a volcanic eruption 125 million years ago.
:Megan: Wow.

:[Pause. Megan is still facing right. Panel closes in on Megan and Cueball is not shown. This panel has no dialogue.]

:[Megan has stepped closer to Cueball, who is still looking at the screen.]
:Megan: Was it okay?
:Cueball: Hmm, it doesn't say.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Volcanoes]]
[[Category:Dinosaurs]]
[[Category:Biology]]

Talk:2268: Further Research is Needed

2020-02-15T17:23:50Z

162.158.63.196:

First! —[[Special:Contributions/172.69.63.145|172.69.63.145]] 14:56, February 14, 2020
:Please sign your comments. [[User:Jacky720|That's right, Jacky720 just signed this]] ([[User talk:Jacky720|talk]] | [[Special:Contributions/Jacky720|contribs]]) 23:59, 14 February 2020 (UTC)

I got two things to say:
* What the heck is the "Woodward Hoffman textbook on organic chemistry"? I can't find it anywhere online.
*I think it's a reference to [https://archive.org/stream/WoodwardAndHoffmannTheConservationOfOrbitalSymmetryAcademicPressVerlagChemie1970/Woodward%20and%20Hoffmann%20The%20Conservation%20of%20Orbital%20Symmetry%20%28Academic%20Press%2C%20Verlag%20Chemie%2C%201970%29_djvu.txt]Conservation of Orbital Symmetry (1971)], whose chapter "Violations" starts with "There are none!" Unfortunately, the "Conclusions" chapter doesn't fully fit the criteria. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.63.196|162.158.63.196]] 17:23, 15 February 2020 (UTC)
* ''[http://www.scp-wiki.net/scp-579 In the event of an unsuccessful Action 10-Israfil-B, no further <s>action</s> research will be necessary.]''
[[User:Jacky720|That's right, Jacky720 just signed this]] ([[User talk:Jacky720|talk]] | [[Special:Contributions/Jacky720|contribs]]) 23:59, 14 February 2020 (UTC)

Paper title: "Constructive proof of P=NP". Conclusion: "No further research is needed" ... because anyone who read this paper can get so rich they won't need to do any research for rest of life, spent on nice tropical island. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 00:58, 15 February 2020 (UTC)
: ... other paper with similar property: "Experimental disapproval of second thermodynamic law" -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 01:01, 15 February 2020 (UTC)

Can someone make a category called "Research" or "Research Papers"? Other comics with this topic include: [[2012: Thorough Analysis]], [[2025: Peer Review]], [[2215: Faculty:Student Ratio]], [[1594: Human Subjects]] and [[1574: Trouble for Science]]. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.83|172.69.33.83]] 00:59, 15 February 2020 (UTC)
:Done. Is easy. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 01:08, 15 February 2020 (UTC)

Here is a list of a bunch of papers that could have done this (but for some it might not have been known at the time): https://mathoverflow.net/questions/347540/what-are-examples-of-collections-of-papers-which-close-a-field [[User:Fabian42|Fabian42]] ([[User talk:Fabian42|talk]]) 02:16, 15 February 2020 (UTC)

2102: Internet Archive

2019-01-24T03:12:22Z

162.158.63.196: Clarify left-pad incident

{{comic
| number = 2102
| date = January 23, 2019
| title = Internet Archive
| image = internet_archive.png
| titletext = The fact that things like the npm left-pad incident are so rare is oddly reassuring.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

The {{w|Internet Archive}} is a project that is invaluable for internet research. It is a public archive of information, including public domain books and music. It also runs the {{w|Wayback Machine}}, an archive of backups of web pages all over the Web at various times that can be used to see past versions of a page, even if that site has since shut down. The Internet Archive accepts submissions of any type of information, including new backups of web pages and newly-made public domain content.

Ponytail and Cueball first remark upon how weird the concept of the Internet Archive is. They claim that it would seem like an implausible concept, were it not already existing.

They then become more philosophical, and wonder about systems that are maintained by a few users, but which could disappear if not maintained. They relate this to the function of the {{w|human body}}, which does contain many {{w|List of systems of the human body|systems}} whose function and inner workings are incomprehensible to the average person.

The title text refers to the "[https://blog.npmjs.org/post/141577284765/kik-left-pad-and-npm npm left-pad incident]", a 2016 incident where a package for the {{w|npm (software)|npm}} package manager was unpublished by its author. As this particular package was used by many projects, both directly and indirectly, this caused a severe disruption in the software world. Randall is relieved that cases like this do not occur more frequently.

The Internet Archive was also mentioned in [[2085: arXiv]].

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Ponytail and Cueball are walking to the right.]
:Ponytail: The Internet Archive is so weird. If it didn't exist, it would sound totally implausible.
:Cueball: ''Seriously.''

:[Ponytail and Cueball continue walking to the right.]
:Cueball: Do you ever worry about how reliant we are on systems that someone happens to maintain for some reason but which could disappear at any time?

:[Ponytail and Cueball are seen in silhouette from a distance.]
:Ponytail: Yeah - the same thing freaks me out about having a body.
:Cueball: I know, right?? I don't even know what half these parts ''do''!
:Ponytail: And yet if they stop, we die!
:Cueball: Probably best not to think about it.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Biology]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Internet]]

Talk:2099: Missal of Silos

2019-01-18T18:10:30Z

162.158.63.196:

We need a citation to prove that residents of Cheyenne, Wyoming would rather not be targeted with nuclear weapons?
[[Special:Contributions/172.68.58.59|172.68.58.59]] 19:06, 16 January 2019 (UTC)
:As no residents have already requested otherwise, let's go ahead and nuke them now. [[User:SDSpivey|SDSpivey]] ([[User talk:SDSpivey|talk]]) 19:49, 16 January 2019 (UTC)

:Seriously, though, a sufficiently patriotic American living in Cheyenne, WY may potentially prefer that the relatively unimportant city of his or her residence be nuked instead of the more militarily important{{Citation needed}} Cheyenne Mountain Complex. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.78.220|162.158.78.220]] 20:37, 16 January 2019 (UTC)
::Is the citation needed for the military importance or for the crazy patriotic guy? [[User:Linker|Linker]] ([[User talk:Linker|talk]]) 20:40, 16 January 2019 (UTC)
::I'm wondering, why would anyone want to target a site that is expressly built to withstand a nuklear strike? That's like fighting a barbarian princess and try to hit her on the bikini armor instead of the midriff [[User:Ruffy314|Ruffy314]] ([[User talk:Ruffy314|talk]]) 00:12, 18 January 2019 (UTC)
:::Enough nuclear weapons will eventually crack it, or at least that's the idea. Also, military command bases are far more important targets than cities: All nuking cities does is kill millions of people and disrupt your enemy's economy and morale, while destroying command bunkers actually reduces your enemy's ability to fight you.
::My understanding is that most military sites are only capable of withstanding near misses from nuclear weapons. This was adequate with early ICBMs because of accuracy problems, modern missiles however are supposed to be accurate enough to destroy hardened facilities. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.22|162.158.255.22]] 01:51, 18 January 2019 (UTC)

:I did not laugh at the comic today. However, I startled people around me laughing at the placement of this [citation needed] in the description. Kudo's to whomever placed it. [[User:DanB|DanB]] ([[User talk:DanB|talk]]) 21:32, 16 January 2019 (UTC)

Wouldn't it make more sense to create a seperate page to collect all the "xkcd-Wikipedia effect" cases? I'm kinda surprised there isn't one already. Model Rail isn't even the only time that happened. One other example being https://xkcd.com/1485/. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.58.177|162.158.58.177]] 11:23, 17 January 2019 (UTC)

;Similar comics
The format of this comic is highly similar to the recent comic [[2042: Rolle's Theorem]], with a title and ''From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia'' header, and the first few paragraphs in the article.
The fact that the reference of this comic to fuzzy string matching matches [[1031: s/keyboard/leopard/]]'s reference to regex (comic 1031 also has a Wikipedia page format)
Can we have kind of a 'Meme format' explanation and Randall's fascination with this format? {{unsigned ip|172.69.186.22}}

There have been several comics referencing nuclear weapons in one way of another. Have added link to [[1655: Doomsday Clock]] in the description because there is already a collection of comics about this there. But do we need a category, so that kind of explanation could go there? --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 14:15, 17 January 2019 (UTC)

Why has it been cremated by a bob?

2098: Magnetic Pole

2019-01-18T18:07:40Z

162.158.63.196:

{{comic
| number = 2098
| date = January 14, 2019
| title = Magnetic Pole
| image = magnetic_pole.png
| titletext = People keep trying to come up with reasons that we should worry about the magnetic field collapsing or reversing, but honestly I think it's fine. Whatever minor problems it causes will be made up for by the mid-latitude auroras.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a CONVECTION CURRENT IN THE OUTER CORE and a thing happening. Well, four things. Well, four things and a lizard. And a toad. And a potato battery. Include relevant wikipedia and news article links. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Over the last couple of months, {{w|Earth's magnetic field|Earth's magnetic fields}} have been [https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00007-1 shifting rapidly]. Although the magnetic fields do move regularly, the current shift has been unexpected and unprecedented. As many location systems are reliant on the magnetic fields to function, the accuracy of such tools is being shifted beyond the maximum acceptable error.

Locational and navigational systems use the magnetic field, in addition to a model, to do fancy math and pop out data. Due to the rapid shifts, a new model was scheduled to be out; however, because of the {{w|United States federal government shutdown of 2018–2019|US government shutdown}}, the model has been considerably delayed.

As shifts occur, the error of geopositional data will increase until a new {{w|World Magnetic Model|model}} is released. The effect is especially pronounced as you move toward the poles.

Cueball is saying that because of the currently published {{w|magnetic declination}} data being slightly incorrect, his {{w|Schooner|schooners}} (old merchant sailing ships) may go off-course and crash on {{w|Shoal|shoals}}. This is to illustrate how magnetic pole shift doesn't actually have much of an effect on too many people's daily lives, since most people don't need to worry about things like ship navigation and modern ships use navigation aids that do not rely on magnetic poles location – in contrast to old vessels which used a {{w|compass}} mostly.

Since the movement is only equal to about two-fifths of a degree, it wouldn't cause very much disruption for [[Cueball]] or require him to adjust anything about his lifestyle or habits, but since the speed of the change has been steadily increasing over the past few years, it may mean we are heading for a geomagnetic reversal in the next few decades; something very exciting indeed. During a magnetic reversal, the poles wouldn't just switch places, but several different poles would form and interact very chaotically, and, statistically speaking, it's likely that one of them would end up close enough to where [[Randall]] lives to cause auroras to become more common at some point during the transition.

In the title text, Randall mentions that there are reasons people could be concerned, but says that they would be more than made up for by newly being able to experience mid latitude auroras.

==Transcript==
:[White Hat and Cueball are talking to each other. White Hat has a cellphone in his hand, while Cueball is raising his hands in the air in mock exasperation.]
:White Hat: I just read that the Earth's North magnetic pole is drifting rapidly.
:Cueball: Oh no! I must update our declination tables post haste, lest our merchant schooners run aground on the shoals!

:[Caption below the panel:]
:I like when the Earth's magnetic field does weird stuff, because it's a huge, cool, urgent-seeming science thing, but there's nothing I personally need to do about it.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]

1570: Engineer Syllogism

2019-01-16T21:19:42Z

162.158.63.196: /* Explanation */ Fixing the alt text descriptions

{{comic
| number = 1570
| date = August 28, 2015
| title = Engineer Syllogism
| image = engineer_syllogism.png
| titletext = The less common, even worse outcome: "3: [everyone in the financial system] WOW, where did all my money just go?"
}}

==Explanation==
A {{w|syllogism}} is a logical argument where two or more propositions lead to a conclusion through {{w|deductive reasoning}}. For example, one of the best-known syllogisms is:
#All men are mortal
#Socrates is a man
#Therefore, Socrates is mortal

In this comic, [[Cueball]] is an engineer who is attempting to make the following syllogism:
#I am good at understanding "numbers" (i.e., mathematics)
#The stock market is made of numbers
#Therefore, I am good at understanding the stock market

Since most engineers are purportedly good at math, proposition 1 seems to be true. It is also loosely true that the {{w|stock market}} is made of numbers, but only in the sense that every system can be given a post-hoc numeric characterization; the dynamics of the stock market are primarily human-driven. In this comic Cueball thinks that his skill at math will help him beat the stock market. Little does he know that the system can be unpredictable, so he ends up losing money as the financial instrument he's invested in loses value. This is due to the financial markets being largely controlled by humans making emotional decisions and not some calculable reason or logic. The fact that humans make emotional decisions is alluded to in the [[title text]] of [[592: Drama]].

Even if the propositions "I am good at understanding numbers" and "The stock market is made of numbers" were true in Cueball's interpretation, Cueball would still be wrong to conclude that "I am good at understanding the stock market": this would be a {{w|fallacy of the undistributed middle}} (with the first premise being more accurately stated as "I'm good at understanding things made of numbers") and a {{w|fallacy of composition}} (with the implicit third premise "if I'm good at understanding the components of a system, then I'm good at understanding the system"). The problem is that proposition 1 seems to say "I am good at understanding all math". However, the "all" is not present, so Cueball may not necessarily understand the math underlying the stock market.

This comic is also related to the 1998 movie {{W|Pi (film)|Pi}} where the main character repeats to himself several times his assumptions that the world is all numbers, and thus he, a great mathematician, should be able to predict the stock market, which is all numbers. He believes that maybe his work on patterns in pi will provide some deeper insight into the patterns in the stock market, a project that drove his mentor crazy and may in fact be making his computer self-aware.

The title text talks of the scenario where it was Cueball who causes everyone involved in the financial system to lose their money. This could refer to a scenario in which Cueball figures out a way to extract large quantities of money from the stock market, causing a sudden, major decline in everybody else's wealth, or that his involvement has caused literally everyone, including his own, stock market assets to lose their value. This is possible since there is no conservation of value for the stock market. The value of a particular stock is determined by a majority that is willing to trade it at a given price.

The release date of this comic makes it highly likely that it refers at least in part to the {{w|2015 Chinese stock market crash}} which largely affected most other world financial markets, particularly during the week of August 24–28, during which this comic was published.

Two, less likely, interpretations of the title text has been suggested:
#It could also be understood as if everyone makes the fallacy of Cueball and this leads to a much worse global situation - i.e. a stock market crash.
#Alternatively, Cueball could cause a global stock market crash if he is an engineer responsible for vital stock-market-related software and/or hardware. An example of a situation where the action of engineers was implicated in just such a crash is the {{w|2010 Flash Crash}}. High-frequency quantitative trading, which relies more on financial technology engineering than sophisticated financial knowledge, was heavily involved in this particular crash.

This scenario has been mentioned before, in the title text of [[592: Drama]].

==Transcript==
:[An white frame with text inside an underbrace and an overbrace.]
:An engineer syllogism

:[Cueball is at his desk in front of his computer, with his hands on his knees, thinking.]
:Cueball, thinking: 1: I am good at understanding numbers.

:[Cueball takes one hand to his chin, still thinking.]
:Cueball, thinking: 2: The stock market is made of numbers.

:[Cueball lifts both arms from his legs, still thinking.]
:Cueball, thinking: 3: Therefore I— ''Wow'', where did all my money just go?

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Computers]]
[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Logic]]

1570: Engineer Syllogism

2019-01-16T21:18:15Z

162.158.63.196: Undo revision 168223 by 162.158.63.196 (talk)

{{comic
| number = 1570
| date = August 28, 2015
| title = Engineer Syllogism
| image = engineer_syllogism.png
| titletext = The less common, even worse outcome: "3: [everyone in the financial system] WOW, where did all my money just go?"
}}

==Explanation==
A {{w|syllogism}} is a logical argument where two or more propositions lead to a conclusion through {{w|deductive reasoning}}. For example, one of the best-known syllogisms is:
#All men are mortal
#Socrates is a man
#Therefore, Socrates is mortal

In this comic, [[Cueball]] is an engineer who is attempting to make the following syllogism:
#I am good at understanding "numbers" (i.e., mathematics)
#The stock market is made of numbers
#Therefore, I am good at understanding the stock market

Since most engineers are purportedly good at math, proposition 1 seems to be true. It is also loosely true that the {{w|stock market}} is made of numbers, but only in the sense that every system can be given a post-hoc numeric characterization; the dynamics of the stock market are primarily human-driven. In this comic Cueball thinks that his skill at math will help him beat the stock market. Little does he know that the system can be unpredictable, so he ends up losing money as the financial instrument he's invested in loses value. This is due to the financial markets being largely controlled by humans making emotional decisions and not some calculable reason or logic. The fact that humans make emotional decisions is alluded to in the [[title text]] of [[592: Drama]].

Even if the propositions "I am good at understanding numbers" and "The stock market is made of numbers" were true in Cueball's interpretation, Cueball would still be wrong to conclude that "I am good at understanding the stock market": this would be a {{w|fallacy of the undistributed middle}} (with the first premise being more accurately stated as "I'm good at understanding things made of numbers") and a {{w|fallacy of composition}} (with the implicit third premise "if I'm good at understanding the components of a system, then I'm good at understanding the system"). The problem is that proposition 1 seems to say "I am good at understanding all math". However, the "all" is not present, so Cueball may not necessarily understand the math underlying the stock market.

This comic is also related to the 1998 movie {{W|Pi (film)|Pi}} where the main character repeats to himself several times his assumptions that the world is all numbers, and thus he, a great mathematician, should be able to predict the stock market, which is all numbers. He believes that maybe his work on patterns in pi will provide some deeper insight into the patterns in the stock market, a project that drove his mentor crazy and may in fact be making his computer self-aware.

The title text talks of the scenario where everyone makes the fallacy of Cueball and this leads to a much worse global situation - i.e. a stock market crash.

The release date of this comic makes it highly likely that it refers at least in part to the {{w|2015 Chinese stock market crash}} which largely affected most other world financial markets, particularly during the week of August 24–28, during which this comic was published.

Two, less likely, interpretations of the title text has been suggested:
#It could also be understood as if it was Cueball who causes everyone involved in the financial system to lose their money. This could refer to a scenario in which Cueball figures out a way to extract large quantities of money from the stock market, causing a sudden, major decline in everybody else's wealth, or that his involvement has caused literally everyone, including his own, stock market assets to lose their value. This is possible since there is no conservation of value for the stock market. The value of a particular stock is determined by a majority that is willing to trade it at a given price.
#Alternatively, Cueball could cause a global stock market crash if he is an engineer responsible for vital stock-market-related software and/or hardware. An example of a situation where the action of engineers was implicated in just such a crash is the {{w|2010 Flash Crash}}. High-frequency quantitative trading, which relies more on financial technology engineering than sophisticated financial knowledge, was heavily involved in this particular crash.

This scenario has been mentioned before, in the title text of [[592: Drama]].

==Transcript==
:[An white frame with text inside an underbrace and an overbrace.]
:An engineer syllogism

:[Cueball is at his desk in front of his computer, with his hands on his knees, thinking.]
:Cueball, thinking: 1: I am good at understanding numbers.

:[Cueball takes one hand to his chin, still thinking.]
:Cueball, thinking: 2: The stock market is made of numbers.

:[Cueball lifts both arms from his legs, still thinking.]
:Cueball, thinking: 3: Therefore I— ''Wow'', where did all my money just go?

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Computers]]
[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Logic]]

1570: Engineer Syllogism

2019-01-16T21:15:12Z

162.158.63.196: /* Explanation */ The alt text description was off, it is referring to the unlikely case an engineer does successfully understand the market and instead of losing all his money makes all the money instead

{{comic
| number = 1570
| date = August 28, 2015
| title = Engineer Syllogism
| image = engineer_syllogism.png
| titletext = The less common, even worse outcome: "3: [everyone in the financial system] WOW, where did all my money just go?"
}}

==Explanation==
A {{w|syllogism}} is a logical argument where two or more propositions lead to a conclusion through {{w|deductive reasoning}}. For example, one of the best-known syllogisms is:
#All men are mortal
#Socrates is a man
#Therefore, Socrates is mortal

In this comic, [[Cueball]] is an engineer who is attempting to make the following syllogism:
#I am good at understanding "numbers" (i.e., mathematics)
#The stock market is made of numbers
#Therefore, I am good at understanding the stock market

Since most engineers are purportedly good at math, proposition 1 seems to be true. It is also loosely true that the {{w|stock market}} is made of numbers, but only in the sense that every system can be given a post-hoc numeric characterization; the dynamics of the stock market are primarily human-driven. In this comic Cueball thinks that his skill at math will help him beat the stock market. Little does he know that the system can be unpredictable, so he ends up losing money as the financial instrument he's invested in loses value. This is due to the financial markets being largely controlled by humans making emotional decisions and not some calculable reason or logic. The fact that humans make emotional decisions is alluded to in the [[title text]] of [[592: Drama]].

Even if the propositions "I am good at understanding numbers" and "The stock market is made of numbers" were true in Cueball's interpretation, Cueball would still be wrong to conclude that "I am good at understanding the stock market": this would be a {{w|fallacy of the undistributed middle}} (with the first premise being more accurately stated as "I'm good at understanding things made of numbers") and a {{w|fallacy of composition}} (with the implicit third premise "if I'm good at understanding the components of a system, then I'm good at understanding the system"). The problem is that proposition 1 seems to say "I am good at understanding all math". However, the "all" is not present, so Cueball may not necessarily understand the math underlying the stock market.

This comic is also related to the 1998 movie {{W|Pi (film)|Pi}} where the main character repeats to himself several times his assumptions that the world is all numbers, and thus he, a great mathematician, should be able to predict the stock market, which is all numbers. He believes that maybe his work on patterns in pi will provide some deeper insight into the patterns in the stock market, a project that drove his mentor crazy and may in fact be making his computer self-aware.

The title text talks of the scenario where Cueball (or any Engineer in this position) does understand the market, and instead of losing all his money makes all the money from the Stock Market leaving everyone else broke.

The release date of this comic makes it highly likely that it refers at least in part to the {{w|2015 Chinese stock market crash}} which largely affected most other world financial markets, particularly during the week of August 24–28, during which this comic was published.

Two, less likely, interpretations of the title text has been suggested:
#It could also be understood as if it was Cueball who causes everyone involved in the financial system to lose their money. This could refer to a scenario in which Cueball figures out a way to extract large quantities of money from the stock market, causing a sudden, major decline in everybody else's wealth, or that his involvement has caused literally everyone, including his own, stock market assets to lose their value. This is possible since there is no conservation of value for the stock market. The value of a particular stock is determined by a majority that is willing to trade it at a given price.
#Alternatively, Cueball could cause a global stock market crash if he is an engineer responsible for vital stock-market-related software and/or hardware. An example of a situation where the action of engineers was implicated in just such a crash is the {{w|2010 Flash Crash}}. High-frequency quantitative trading, which relies more on financial technology engineering than sophisticated financial knowledge, was heavily involved in this particular crash.

This scenario has been mentioned before, in the title text of [[592: Drama]].

==Transcript==
:[An white frame with text inside an underbrace and an overbrace.]
:An engineer syllogism

:[Cueball is at his desk in front of his computer, with his hands on his knees, thinking.]
:Cueball, thinking: 1: I am good at understanding numbers.

:[Cueball takes one hand to his chin, still thinking.]
:Cueball, thinking: 2: The stock market is made of numbers.

:[Cueball lifts both arms from his legs, still thinking.]
:Cueball, thinking: 3: Therefore I— ''Wow'', where did all my money just go?

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Computers]]
[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Logic]]

2090: Feathered Dinosaur Venn Diagram

2018-12-26T20:09:23Z

162.158.63.196: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2090
| date = December 26, 2018
| title = Feathered Dinosaur Venn Diagram
| image = feathered_dinosaur_venn_diagram.png
| titletext = My pet theory is that in real life, the kid at the beginning of Jurassic Park who made fun of the 'six-foot turkey' never got a talking-to from Dr. Grant, and grew up to produce several of the movie's sequels.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a GUY WHO FOUGHT AN OSTRICH. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic is another jab at people who dismiss the idea of dinosaurs having feathers just because they don't sound deadly. Adding feathers to a reptile can trigger a cognitive dissonance; people today see feathers and think birds.

The diagram is in actuality a Euler diagram, rather than a Venn diagram. A Venn diagram shows all possible combinations of two sets, including those with no elements, and as such all of the circles must intersect. A Euler diagram only depicts the non-empty combinations, and therefore does not have this constraint. However, this is a technicality, and many people use the words interchangeably.

The Euler diagram is explaining that the ostrich (and a few other avian species) are in fact deadly.

The title text says "My pet theory is that in real life, the kid at the beginning of Jurassic Park who made fun of the 'six-foot turkey' never got a talking-to from Dr. Grant, and grew up to produce several of the movie's sequels."

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:[The comic shows a rectangular panel containing two circles, side by side. A caption is underneath each circle.]

:Left circle caption: People Who Don't Think Feathered Dinosaurs Sound Scary

:Right circle caption: People Who Have Tried To Fight An Ostrich

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Dinosaurs]]
[[Category:Jurassic Park]]

258: Conspiracy Theories

2018-12-12T15:04:28Z

162.158.63.196: important punctuation

{{comic
| number = 258
| date = May 7, 2007
| title = Conspiracy Theories
| image = conspiracy theories.png
| titletext = There are a lot of graduate-educated young-earth creationists.
}}
==Explanation==
A {{w|conspiracy theory}} purports to explain a social, political, or economic event as being caused or covered up by a covert group or organization. A typical example is the {{w|moon landing conspiracy}}, which asserts that no human has ever reached the {{w|Moon landing|Moon}}.

Once a conspiracy theory starts, it often grows stronger. Facts agreeing with the theory are, of course, evidence for the theory. Facts disagreeing with the theory are considered part of the cover-up, and thus prove there is in fact a cover-up, so they're also evidence for the theory. In the Moon landing case, videos of men walking on the Moon are assumed to be faked by Hollywood studios, so the existence of the assumed fake videos proves the cover-up. Also, the absence of filming crew or anything else needed for faking a video is considered further proof of how carefully the cover-up was planned. No matter what happens next, it will be evidence for the conspiracy theory.

People promoting these theories belong to a small minority, but they gain attention from many people — often without much knowledge on that specific matter. People who have actual knowledge about a given subject just get frustrated by this, because it seems like smart or educated people should reject conspiracy theories for lack of proof. In the comic, [[Hairy]] (who is considered "smart" by [[Cueball]]) starts pointing out "errors" in the {{w|September 11 attacks|"official" 9/11 story}}, obviously starting to describe the {{w|9/11 conspiracy theory}}. Cueball cuts his speech sharply, and his heart is broken because he's seeing his smart friend wasting his great intelligence in a foolish conspiracy theory, instead of doing something useful.

In the second panel, Cueball rants about conspiracy theories in general. He mentions {{w|Young Earth creationism}}, {{w|Moon landing conspiracy|the Moon landing}}, and {{w|Perpetual motion}} machines. In the third panel, Hairy mentions that of course we never landed on the Moon. This frustrates Cueball so much that he just walks away with no further comment.

In the last panel, Cueball asks God to fix the bug he committed when creating smart beings capable of believing such foolish things as conspiracy theories. This is a not-so-subtle joke as, to atheists, God himself is quite similar to a conspiracy theory. Indeed, a good portion of evidence against God's existence put forward by an atheist is met with a "whatever happens, it's God's will" by a believer. This is much like any other conspiracy theory, so in this last panel, to an atheist, Cueball is pictured as contradicting himself by complaining that other people believe in foolish conspiracy theories while the atheist thinks that Cueball himself is very plainly believing his own foolish conspiracy theory.

Of course, from the believers' perspective, atheism also has many characteristics of a conspiracy theory. In particular, atheism and agnosticism are a small subculture — actually smaller in the U.S. than the 9/11 Truth movement — that thinks that a large majority of people (about [http://www.gallup.com/poll/147887/americans-continue-believe-god.aspx 95% of Americans believe in God]) have been deluded into believing something ridiculous by conspiracies (e.g. churches and conservative politicians) that benefit from the spreading of misinformation on the subject. Some atheists are rational, in that they take evidence against this position seriously and adjust their beliefs to fit all the facts, but some are quite willing to make claims that have been decisively refuted.

A "bug report" is a description of some error that occurred when using a computer program, to inform the developer of a problem that needs to be fixed. Filing a "bug report" to God should be unnecessary, as God is generally understood by believers to be omniscient, and thus already aware of the problem. God allows it to exist for explicable reasons of "God's will."

The title text refers the large number of educated people who believe in {{w|Young Earth creationism}}, stating that the earth is only thousands of years old, instead of the billions of years evolutionary scientists suggest.

==Transcript==
:Hairy: The official story of 9-11 is full of holes. Take the—
:Cueball: Please, stop, because seeing this happen to you breaks my heart.

:Cueball: Conspiracy theories represent a known glitch in human reasoning. The theories are of course occasionally true, but their truth is completely uncorrelated with the believer's certainty. For some reason, sometimes when people think they've uncovered a lie, they raise confirmation bias to an art form. They cut context away from facts and arguments and assemble them into reassuring litanies. And over and over I've argued helplessly with smart people consumed by theories they were sure were irrefutable, theories that in the end proved complete fictions.
:Cueball: Young-Earth Creationists, the Moon Landing people, the Perpetual Motion subculture — can't you see you're falling into the same pattern?

:Hairy: You don't seriously believe we landed on the moon, do you?

:[Cueball walks away, frustrated.]

:[Cueball praying:]
:Cueball: Dear God.
:[Booming from the sky:]
:God: '''YES, MY CHILD?'''
:Cueball: I would like to file a bug report.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Religion]]
[[Category:Conspiracy theory]]

Talk:1928: Seven Years

2017-12-15T14:13:46Z

162.158.63.196: DFTD?

no... I'm not crying... [[User:Zazathebot|Zazathebot]] ([[User talk:Zazathebot|talk]])

Liar [[Special:Contributions/172.68.34.34|172.68.34.34]] 20:13, 13 December 2017 (UTC)

:([[Special:Contributions/162.158.58.105|162.158.58.105]] 23:04, 13 December 2017 (UTC)

Do we know her name? [[User:Dogman15|Dogman15]] ([[User talk:Dogman15|talk]]) 00:34, 14 December 2017 (UTC)

Should we remove the transcript incomplete mark? I know it's early, but I don't think it can be any better. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.166.233|162.158.166.233]] 02:25, 14 December 2017 (UTC)

Is someone cutting onions here? I am almost close to tears soon.Boeing-787lover 08:10, 14 December 2017 (UTC)

Why is my face leaking??? --[[User:Nialpxe|Nialpxe]], 2017. [[User_talk:Nialpxe|(Arguments welcome)]]

Yay life!

I love the phrasing "Panel 17: The sky has been brightened." I'm just commenting to preserve it from edits. [[Special:Contributions/198.41.230.52|198.41.230.52]] 13:22, 14 December 2017 (UTC)

I feel it important to point out to anyone who may be looking at here and thinking about dealing with cancer...
Chemotherapy and Radiology, '''Don't do it!'''. These were the best that science had about 20 years ago, but we've come much further since then. Immuno-oncology is less intensive, cheaper, and much more effective. Most of the developed world has quit using radiology and chemotherapy (which works by the very imprecise method of 'kill everything, good and bad, and hopefully kill more of the bad than the good'. Immuno-oncology works by creating specialized and personalized medicines that train your white blood cells to seek out and destroy the particular cancer cells, leaving all your good cells in tact and leaving you an immunity to that particular cancer. This knowledge won't be that much use to most of the developed world, but if you live in the U.S., it could save your life. (A few certain large companies who will go unnamed have been lobbying to prevent entry of new cancer solutions as they see chemo and radiotherapy as a cash cow and don't want their income stifled.) --[[User:Joshupetersen|Joshupetersen]] ([[User talk:Joshupetersen|talk]]) 18:33, 14 December 2017 (UTC)
::As someone who works in medical research, I find the previous comment damaging. It is very close to a conspiracy theory. The names chemotherapy and radiation haven't changed, but the methods have. The side-effects are still decreasing dramatically, as they should. It is true that immunotherapie is the new kid on the block and shows a lot of promise, but it is currently very limited in what types of cancer it can treat, and it costs twice the national debt to treat someone. I don't know too much about the situation in the US, but generally I would say the fear for litigation ensures the use of modern implementation of old techniques. Ever think of ultrasound? It is ancient, but it is still a valuable tool. (Also, remember CEO's of Big Pharma also deal with cancer in their families, and they also get chemo and radiation.)[[Special:Contributions/172.68.142.113|172.68.142.113]] 08:01, 15 December 2017 (UTC)

I don't want to take away anything from this very moving comic, but he does realize there's an eclipse or two every year, somewhere on the planet? Does the fear of cancer somehow limit them from ever leaving the US?
: Do you realize that most people can't afford to travel to the other end of the world just to watch a particular eclipse for 5-7 minutes? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.77.68|141.101.77.68]] 09:47, 15 December 2017 (UTC)

God that's beatiful. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.17|162.158.91.17]] 20:39, 14 December 2017 (UTC)

First off this is fantastic. As someone in the same situation, at the same part of the timeline, this rings so honest and true. The tree scene ... brilliant. Walking among beings for who a human lifespan is insignificant. Second. a hearty, contemptuous, giant F you to Joshupetersen. I can't stand conspiratorial know it alls like you. You think people in this situation don't know every single treatment that is out there? Every single immunotherapy drug in Cuba, every single clinical trial being run out of some backwater lab in China? There is no big pharma conspiracy. There is however a conspiracy called "evolution," which after several million years of practice ensures that cancer is one of the wiliest, most resilient killers out there. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.47.30|172.68.47.30]] 22:26, 14 December 2017 (UTC)Kaeleku
:The way you speak about evolution suggest cancer is some kind of infectious organism which evolved to kill effectively. It isn't and it isn't infectious at all. Even the kind of cancers caused by infections are not DIRECT result of infections. Cancer is basically failure of normal cell functionality, abnormal growth of your own cells which your self-repair mechanisms failed to prevent, and evolution is the reason why it's rare to have cancer before the age when it's natural to have children.
::I *think* that Devil facial tumour disease may be a counterexample.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.63.196|162.158.63.196]] 14:13, 15 December 2017 (UTC)
:Nevertheless, there is no reason for conspiracy: large companies are just slower to adapt to changes. Radiology and chemotherapy are tested, immuno-oncology is new, not well tested and may not work on all kinds of cancer. And regarding how aggressive those old methods are, think about dentistry, which instead of curing anything limits itself to effectively amputation and replacement by artificial prosthesis. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 02:52, 15 December 2017 (UTC)
::The wrongest thing to do in this regard is to think of "cancer" as one disease. Yes, the suffering aspect of various forms can be similar and it is sometimes useful to lump them together when making broad policy decisions. But just about every organ and cell type presents a unique challenge, which is best dealt with differently. Some cancers are extremely chemo- and radiosensitive, others are rather resistant. The same is true for novel and experimental treatment methods. Do your own research by all means, but if your oncologist strongly recommends one treatment option, consider that they are weighing previous outcomes of available treatment methods before making the suggestion. --[[User:Nialpxe|Nialpxe]], 2017. [[User_talk:Nialpxe|(Arguments welcome)]]

I feel it important to point out to anyone who may be looking at here and thinking about dealing with cancer... talk with your trusted health care professional who knows your case, and is not only well aware of but well practiced in modern medicine. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.9|162.158.74.9]] 23:58, 14 December 2017 (UTC)

...solar eclipses visible from North America... Americans![[Special:Contributions/162.158.165.16|162.158.165.16]] 04:10, 15 December 2017 (UTC)

1908: Credit Card Rewards

2017-10-29T18:09:20Z

162.158.63.196:

{{comic
| number = 1908
| date = October 27, 2017
| title = Credit Card Rewards
| image = credit_card_rewards.png
| titletext = I should make a list of all the things I could be trying to optimize, prioritized by ... well, I guess there are a few different variables I could use. I'll create a spreadsheet ...
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|VERY basic explanation.}}

A credit card, at its most basic form, is a loan contract to an individual from a bank. Like all contracts, the bank will offer several different types in an attempt to appeal to a large number of individuals. Unlike traditional loans which focus on a single item (car, house, boat, etc), a credit card is an unsecured loan geared towards daily and weekly transactions. Because these transactions cover a wide variety of items, credit cards can be further tweaked towards offering benefits in certain areas. Gas purchases, or even gas purchases through a single retail chain can offer higher rewards on one type of plan vs other plans.

These benefits, typically called rewards, have several different options. "Cash back" is a reward where the individual is given money back when they make a purchase that follows certain rules spelled out in the contract. "No interest" is a reward where the individual is not charged interest on their purchases if they pay the loaned money back within a specified amount of time. "Points" are similar to the cash back program, but are typically reserved towards purchasing a single large item or plan. Points towards a vacation is a popular option. Besides these three types of rewards, the number of actual rewards to pick from are limited only by the creativity and fiscal limitations, and of the issuing bank's CEO.

Cueball is trying to choose the optimal credit card program (the one that will result in biggest savings with the yearly fiscal median (YFM) he has). He realizes that he has to subtract the cost of him spending time on optimizing, so he wants to optimize the time needed to do the optimizing. But in order to to that efficiently, he first has to optimize the time spent on optimizing the time.

Hairy notices a hidden assumption that Cueball will spend his time on something more productive than this, e.g. that his time has value; Cueball's obsession with optimization is lame enough to suggest that he does not actually have more worthwhile interests to pursue. Cueball responds that he can "fail to optimize so many better things." This means that Cueball is aware both of the big flaw in his reasoning and the fact that, when he attempts to optimize things, the attempt seldom really helps his situation.

The title text further expands the idea. Cueball wants to present a list of things to optimize to Hairy. However, he still needs to optimize the priorities of that list, before optimizing the list itself. Making and working with lists like this often involves a spreadsheet, which may also be a reference to [[1906: Making Progress]].

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball sits at a desk and is on his laptop. Hairy stands behind him.]
:Cueball: I'm trying to figure out which of these credit card rewards programs is best given my spending.

:[Cueball leans backwards in a frameless panel.]
:Cueball: But at some point, the cost of the time it takes me to understand the options outweighs their difference in value.

:[Close-up of Cueball's head and torso.]
:Cueball: So I need to figure out where that point is, and stop before I reach it.
:Cueball: But... when I factor in the time to calculate THAT, it changes the overall answer.

:[Cueball has his arms outstretched.]
:Hairy: I question the assumption that you'd otherwise be spending your time on something more valuable.
:Cueball: Come on, I could be failing to optimize so many better things!

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]

1908: Credit Card Rewards

2017-10-29T18:01:37Z

162.158.63.196:

{{comic
| number = 1908
| date = October 27, 2017
| title = Credit Card Rewards
| image = credit_card_rewards.png
| titletext = I should make a list of all the things I could be trying to optimize, prioritized by ... well, I guess there are a few different variables I could use. I'll create a spreadsheet ...
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|VERY basic explanation.}}

A credit card, at its most basic form, is a loan contract to an individual from a bank. Like all contracts, the bank will offer several different types in an attempt to appeal to a large number of individuals. Unlike traditional loans which focus on a single item (car, house, boat, etc), a credit card is an unsecured loan geared towards daily and weekly transactions. Because these transactions cover a wide variety of items, credit cards can be further tweaked towards offering benefits in certain areas. Gas purchases, or even gas purchases through a single retail chain can offer higher rewards on one type of plan vs other plans.

These benefits, typically called rewards, have several different options. "Cash back" is a reward where the individual is given money back when they make a purchase that follows certain rules spelled out in the contract. "No interest" is a reward where the individual is not charged interest on their purchases if they pay the loaned money back within a specified amount of time. "Points" are similar to the cash back program, but are typically reserved towards purchasing a single large item or plan. Points towards a vacation is a popular option. Besides these three types of rewards, the number of actual rewards to pick from are limited only by the creativity and fiscal limitations, and of the issuing bank's CEO.

Cueball is trying to choose the optimal credit card program (the one that will result in biggest savings with the yearly fiscal median (YFM) he has). He realizes that he has to subtract the cost of him spending time on optimizing, so he wants to optimize the time needed to do the optimizing. But in order to to that efficiently, he first has to optimize the time spent on optimizing the time.

Hairy notices a hidden assumption that Cueball will spend his time on something more productive than this, e.g. that his time has value, and that he has more worthwhile interests and duties he could be attending to; Cueball's obsessive interest with optimization suggests that these assumptions are false. Cueball responds that he can "fail to optimize so many better things." This means that Cueball is aware both of the big flaw in his reasoning and the fact that, when he attempts to optimize things, the attempt seldom really helps his situation.

The title text further expands the idea. Cueball wants to present a list of things to optimize to Hairy. However, he still needs to optimize the priorities of that list, before optimizing the list itself. Making and working with lists like this often involves a spreadsheet, which may also be a reference to [[1906: Making Progress]].

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball sits at a desk and is on his laptop. Hairy stands behind him.]
:Cueball: I'm trying to figure out which of these credit card rewards programs is best given my spending.

:[Cueball leans backwards in a frameless panel.]
:Cueball: But at some point, the cost of the time it takes me to understand the options outweighs their difference in value.

:[Close-up of Cueball's head and torso.]
:Cueball: So I need to figure out where that point is, and stop before I reach it.
:Cueball: But... when I factor in the time to calculate THAT, it changes the overall answer.

:[Cueball has his arms outstretched.]
:Hairy: I question the assumption that you'd otherwise be spending your time on something more valuable.
:Cueball: Come on, I could be failing to optimize so many better things!

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]

1681: Laser Products

2017-10-26T06:21:54Z

162.158.63.196:

{{comic
| number = 1681
| date = May 16, 2016
| title = Laser Products
| image = laser_products.png
| titletext = ERRORS: HAIR JAM. COLOR-SAFE CONDITIONER CARTRIDGE RUNNING LOW. LEGAL-SIZE HAIR TRAY EMPTY, USING LETTER-SIZE HAIR ONLY.
}}

==Explanation==
This comic takes three laser-based technologies - laser eye surgery, laserjet printers, and laser hair removal - and conflates them, with humorous results. These are illustrated through reviews by users of the resulting combinations. For the original combinations, the reviews are highly positive. For the new combinations, most are negative, because most of these new "technologies" are ill-conceived and possibly harmful.

'''Laser eye surgery''' gets a positive review, since it has successfully corrected the reviewer's vision, no longer requiring them to use glasses. However, '''laser eye removal''' would be very painful, and thus the review is negative, stating that the reviewer had read the description incorrectly, likely believing it to be one of the real combinations on the chart. Additionally, there is an absurdist joke of the reviewer expressing the pain from the procedure in their review as if they were responding immediately after the procedure; an actual person suffering such an experience would likely require a great deal of time, and adaptive equipment, before they could provide an online review, and even if they didn't, people do not typically type out their screams of pain. (This is not the first time laser eye removal has been mentioned, see the lower right part in the [[1619: Watson Medical Algorithm]] chart.) '''Laser eye printer''' refers to printing on (or possibly ''of'') an eyeball, which only prompts a disgusted "Eww" response.

'''Laser jet surgery''' makes the reviewer nervous, as performing maintenance on a jet with lasers is potentially dangerous and could easily be done incorrectly{{Citation needed}}. Alternatively, laser jet surgery could mean laser surgery done on a human from a jet aircraft with a laser mounted to it (unspecified whether the human being operated on is aboard that aircraft as well, another aircraft, or on land: in any case, not a safe idea). The ambiguity of the phrase may contribute to the person's concern. '''Laser jet removal''' implies the destruction of jets with lasers, which works, but angers the Federal Aviation Administration, and probably resulted in legal consequences for the reviewer. '''Laserjet printing''' gets a positive review, as it is legitimate printing technology that works well for the reviewer.

The '''Laser Jet Removal''' may refer to [https://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/lasers/ the real FAA concern] of the many incidents [http://www.laserpointersafety.com/laser-hazards_aircraft/laser-hazards_aircraft.html of people using laser pointers] against aircraft.

'''Laser hair surgery''' is rated neutrally, with the reviewer pointing out that they consider the phrase to be bizarre and obfuscating -- for the user, it amounted to little more than a normal haircut -- and they note that the using a laser to cut hair results in a smell of burning hair. '''Laser hair removal''' is reviewed well, as it is a real process that effectively removes unwanted hair. '''Laser hair printer''' is negatively reviewed for being disgusting, the printer jamming, and the machine being unable to stop printing the hair.

The title text expands on the laser hair printer from the last entry, displaying standard printer error messages, replacing "paper" with "hair". It also replaces "ink" with "color-safe conditioner".

===Laser eye surgery===
LASIK, one of the more common laser eye surgeries, works by cutting open the cornea and ablating a small amount of the lens. Lasers are used for both steps. This, or equivalent, is the referenced surgery. There are other laser eye surgeries for various other conditions besides near- and far-sightedness.

===Laserjet printing===
LaserJet is a brand name used by Hewlett Packard (HP) for its line of laser printers.

Laser printing is an electrostatic digital printing process. It produces high-quality text and graphics (and moderate-quality photographs) by repeatedly passing a laser beam back and forth over a negatively charged cylinder called a "drum" to define a differentially-charged image. The drum then selectively collects electrically charged powdered ink (toner), and transfers the image to paper, which is then heated in order to permanently fuse the text and/or imagery. As with digital photocopiers and multifunction/all-in-one inkjet printers, laser printers employ a xerographic printing process. However, laser printing differs from analog photocopiers in that the image is produced by the direct scanning of the medium across the printer's photoreceptor. This enables laser printing to copy images more quickly than most photocopiers.

===Laser hair removal===
Laser hair removal is the process of removing unwanted hair by means of exposure to pulses of laser light that destroy the hair follicle. It had been performed experimentally for about twenty years before becoming commercially available in the mid-1990s. One of the first published articles describing laser hair removal was authored by the group at Massachusetts General Hospital in 1998.The efficacy of laser hair removal is now generally accepted in the dermatology community,[citation needed] and laser hair removal is widely practiced in clinics, and even in homes using devices designed and priced for consumer self-treatment. Many reviews of laser hair removal methods, safety, and efficacy have been published in the dermatology literature.

Lastly, as an aside, [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Weapon_System "Laser Jet Removal"] actually exists as a military weapon system. Although it's primarily meant to be used against jet ''missiles'' not jet planes (as the FAA quip suggests).

==Transcript==
:[Heading above the table:]
:Online Reviews of Laser Products

:[A three by three table with one word to the far left, from which three lines split out and goes to three words just left of each of the three rows. Above each column is three other words. Below in the table are nine reviews with star rating on a five star scale. The actual rating is indicated with black stars and also use half filled stars in the rating system. The ratings are written in the table in square brackets.]
:{| class="wikitable"
!colspan="2"|
! ...surgery
! ...removal
! ...printer
|-
!rowspan="3"|Laser
! eye...
| [4 1/2 stars] "I don't need glasses anymore!" || [1/2 star] "Aaaaaaa! Misread the description! Aaaaaaaaaaaa!!" || [1 star] "Eww." 
|-
! jet...
| [1 1/2 stars] "Too nervous to try it." || [2 1/2 stars] "Effective, but the FAA got ''really'' mad." || [4 stars] "Prints great!" 
|-
! hair...
| [2 1/2 stars] "Confusing term for haircut. Burning smell." || [4 stars] "Great results!" || [1/2 star] "Disgusting, won't turn off, jams constantly." 
|-
|}

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Charts]]