explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

1988: Containers

2020-11-11T02:01:22Z

162.158.78.226: /* Explanation */ added link

{{comic
| number = 1988
| date = May 2, 2018
| title = Containers
| image = containers.png
| titletext = All services are microservices if you ignore most of their features.
}}

==Explanation==

{{w|Docker (software)|Docker}} is a computer program that performs {{w|Operating-system-level virtualization|operating-system-level virtualization}} also known as containerization. [[White Hat]] notices that many people are using Docker for "everything," implying that he does not understand what all the fuss is about. [[Cueball]] then explains the fundamental idea behind Docker with a simple story.

He notes how difficult it can be to combine two programs and have them work together as one. This is something all programmers can relate to. His specific example is to get two separate programs to display side-by-side on a tablet. The main joke is that Cueball's solution is a surprising twist to solving the problem. Instead of writing a lot of complicated code to deal with the problem at hand, he sidesteps the problem by using two separate devices, literally gluing them together. Containerization software, like Docker, uses the same general idea but the "glue" and the "multiple computers" are done in software, instead of literally gluing two computers together.

Cueball states that he achieved "software enlightenment" when he "solved" the problem by sidestepping it.

White Hat's initial confusion comes from the fact that Cueball did not write any software, yet achieved "software enlightenment." A good programmer doesn't necessarily need to be able to write programs or even understand how they work, provided that he/she has the skills needed to combine existing programs to solve tasks. An alternate interpretation is that someone with little programming experience is able to create a working program simply by copy/pasting code snippets from a coding site such as Stack Overflow and "gluing" them together without really understanding how they work.

The title text makes a joke about developers writing code for use in a containerized environment. The ideal is to only write "{{w|microservices}}" which are modules that do just one thing and do it well. The joke here is that even when a module does many different things, you can pretend it is a "microservice" by just ignoring all of its features but one (hopefully one that it does well).

==Transcript==
:[White Hat is sitting at a laptop. Cueball is standing behind him.]
:White Hat: Man, Docker is being used for everything.
:White Hat: I don't know how I feel about it.
:Cueball: Story time!

:[Cueball is standing by himself.]
:Cueball: Once, long ago, I wanted to use an old tablet as a wall display.

:[A picture of Cueball's imagined tablet with two applications open side by side. The app on the left is "LiveCam". The app on the right is Google Calendar.]
:Cueball: I had an app and a calendar webpage that I wanted to show side by side, but the OS didn't have split-screen support.
:Cueball: So I decided to build my own app.

:[White Hat and Cueball as before, but White Hat has turned to face Cueball.]
:Cueball: I downloaded the SDK and the IDE, registered as a developer, and started reading the language's docs.

:[A picture of two smartphones glued together side by side, held on a backing board. The same two applications shown earlier are open on different phones.]
:Cueball: ...Then I realized it would be '''way''' easier to get two smaller phones on eBay and glue them together.
:Cueball: On that day, I achieved software enlightenment.

:[White Hat and Cueball still facing each other, with White Hat's arm resting on the back of the chair.]
:White Hat: But you never learned to write software.
:Cueball: No, I just learned how to glue together stuff that I don't understand.
:White Hat: I...OK, fair.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics with color]]

2379: Probability Comparisons

2020-11-03T05:14:31Z

162.158.78.226: SSN has 9 digits

{{comic
| number = 2379
| date = October 30, 2020
| title = Probability Comparisons
| image = probability comparisons new.png
| titletext = Call me, MAYBE.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by LEBRON JAMES THROWING M&Ms AT A KEYBOARD. The table for the explanations of the chances isn't complete, nor is the transcript. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This is a list of probabilities for different events. There are numerous recurring themes, of which the most common are free throws (13 entries), birthdays (12), dice (12, split about evenly between 6-sided (d6) and 20-sided (d20) types), {{w|M&M's|M&M}} candies (11), playing cards (9), {{w|NBA}} basketball mid-game victory predictions (9), {{w|Scrabble}} tiles (7), coins (7), white Christmases (7), and the NBA players {{w|Stephen Curry}} and {{w|LeBron James}} (7 each).

Themes are variously repeated and combined, for humorous effect. For instance, there are entries for both the probability that St. Louis will have a white Christmas (21%) and that it will not (79%). Also given is the 40% probability that a random Scrabble tile will contain a letter from the name "Steph Curry".

There are 80 items in the list, the last two of which devolve into absurdity - perhaps from the stress of preparing the other 78 entries.

The list may be an attempt to better understand probabilistic election forecasts for the {{w|2020 United States presidential election}}, which was four days away at the time this comic was published and had also been alluded to in [[2370: Prediction]] and [[2371: Election Screen Time]]. Statistician and {{w|psephologist}} {{w|Nate Silver}} is referenced in one of the list items. On the date this cartoon was published, Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight.com was publishing forecast probabilities of Donald Trump and Joe Biden winning the US Presidential election. [[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/]]. On 31 October 2020, the forecast described the chances of Donald Trump winning as "roughly the same as the chance that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. It does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)" A day previously, when the chances were 12%, the website had also described Trump's chances of winning as "slightly less than a six sided die rolling a 1".

The probabilities are calculated from [https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/ these sources], as mentioned in the bottom left corner.

The title text refers to the song "{{w|Call Me Maybe}}" by {{w|Carly Rae Jepsen}} (cited twice in the list). "MAYBE" is emphasized, perhaps because the probability of getting her phone number correct, as in the last item in the list, is very low. The capitalization could also be a reference to Scrabble tiles, as was previously mentioned in association with Carly Rae Jepsen.

==Table==
{| class="wikitable sortable"
! Odds
! Text
! Explanation
|-
| 0.01%
| You guess the last four digits of someone's {{w|Social Security Number}} on the first try
| There are nine digits in a {{w|Social Security Number}}, but the last four are commonly used as an identity verification factor. (1/10)4 = 0.0001, or 0.01%
|-
| 0.1%
| Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed
| The chances of having left-{{w|handedness}} is about [https://www.healthline.com/health/left-handers-and-health-risk 10%], and 10%3 = 0.1%.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.2%
| You draw 2 random {{w|Scrabble}} tiles and get M and M
| This appears to be an error. Under standard English {{w|Scrabble letter distribution}} there are 100 tiles of which 2 are M. This would give a probability of randomly drawing M and M as 2/100 × 1/99 ≈ 0.02%. However, other language editions of Scrabble have different letter distributions, some of which could allow this to be true.
|-
| You draw 3 random {{w|M&Ms}} and they're all red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 . 0.131^3 ≈ 0.225%; 0.125^3 ≈ 0.177% .
|-
| 0.3%
| You guess someone's birthday in one try.
| 1/365 ≈ 0.27%. Taking into account that a person might have been born February 29, the probability with a random guess is slightly lower. If the guesser knows on which days there are slightly more births (for example, early October, believed to be because of conceptions occurring on the evening of December 31) and which days there are slightly fewer (for examples, holidays on which a planned, pre-scheduled C-section is unlikely to be held), then the probability is slightly higher.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.5%
| An {{w|NBA}} team down by 30 at halftime wins
| This calculation, along with all related ones, use the source NBA Win Probability Calculator. Entering Q2, 0:00, and -30 into the calculator yields 0.6% .
|-
| You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of them that is brown or yellow is either 0.25 or 0.259 . 0.254≈ 0.39%; 0.2594 ≈ 0.45% .
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1%
| {{w|Steph Curry}} gets two free throws and misses both
| Curry is a 91% career free throw shooter, so the percentage of missing 1 FT is about 9%. The chance of missing 2 FTs is about 0.8% ≈ 1%.
|-
| {{w|LeBron James}} guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses
| LeBron James' free-throw odds are ~73% . The odds of him winning on the first round are 1/365, for the second (1/364)(0.73), for the third (1/363)(0.73)2... Summing all of these from 1 to 365 gives us his total odds of winning at any point in the game are ≈ 1.022% .
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1.5%
| You get two M&Ms and they're both red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 . 0.131^2 ≈ 1.7%; 0.125^2 ≈ 1.6% .
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|Backstreet Boys|Backstreet Boy}}
|Each of the five Backstreet Boys has a different birthday, so the odds that you share a birthday with one is 5/365.25 ≈ 1.3% .
|-
| 2%
| You guess someone's card on the first try
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), so the probability is 1/52, which is approximately 0.019 (1.9%).
|-
| rowspan="2"| 3%
| You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right
| The chance of correctly predicting a coin toss is 0.5. The chance of predicting 5 in a row is 0.55, or 3.125%.
|-
| Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game
| Swap out 0.73 for 0.91 in the above calculations to find Steph Curry's odds of winning. This sum yields ~3.13% .
|-
| rowspan="3"| 4%
| You sweep a 3-game {{w|rock paper scissors}} series
| Picking randomly, you have a 1 in 3 chance of beating an opponent on the first try. (1/3)3 = 1/27 ≈ 4% .
|-
| {{w|Portland, Oregon}} has a {{w|White Christmas (weather)|white Christmas}}
| According to Randall's source (from the ''Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society''), the probability of snow cover in Portland is 4%.
|-
| You share a birthday with two {{w|US Senator}}s
| At the time this comic was published, 15 days were birthdays for more than one Senator, and 15/365.25 ≈ 4%.<ref>Rand Paul and John Thune - January 7 
Chris Van Hollen and Roy Blunt - January 10 
Tina Smith and James Lankford - March 4 
Tammy Duckworth and Mitt Romney - March 12 
Angus King and Patrick Leahy - March 31 
Jim Risch and Ron Wyden - May 3 
Dianne Feinstein and Elizabeth Warren - June 22 
Todd Young and Joe Manchin - August 24 
Kamala Harris, Brian Schatz, and Sheldon Whitehouse - October 20 
Jeff Merkley and Mike Rounds - October 24 
Jim Inhofe and Pat Toomey - November 17 
Dick Durbin and John Kennedy - November 21 
Rick Scott and Gary Peters - December 1 
John Boozman and David Perdue - December 10 

Based on [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_senators List of current US Senators on Wikipedia] (and processed through [https://bit.ly/2HZeqQs this Google sheet)].
</ref>
|-
| rowspan="2"| 5%
| An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins
| Entering Q2, 0:00, and -20 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 5.2% or 5.3% .
|-
| You roll a natural 20
| A natural 20 indicates a critical hit in the {{w|Dungeons & Dragons}} role playing game. "Natural" means that it is the number showing when rolling a d20 (a 20-sided die), as opposed to an overall total of 20 when counting the die roll plus modifiers. There are twenty sides to a d20 die. 1/20 = 0.05 = 5%
|-
| 6%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries
| Picking a random card within 3 times gives 1 - (51/52)(50/51)(49/50) ≈ 6% .
|-
| 7%
| LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both
| James' career FT percentage is 73%, so the probability of a miss is 27%. The probability of 2 misses is (27%)2, which is about 7%.
|-
| 8%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries
| Assuming you guess four different cards, 4/52 = 0.0769 ≈ 8% .
|-
| 9%
| Steph Curry misses a free throw
| Curry's career free throw percentage is 91%, so the probability of a miss is 9%.
|-
| rowspan="2"|10%
| You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), and the Ace of Spades is one of them. The chances of getting the card is 1 - 51/52 * 50/51 * 49/50 * 48/49 * 47/48 which is approximately 0.096, which rounds to the given 10%. 
|-
| There's a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8+ earthquake in the next month
| Note that, unlike other earthquake examples, this does not specify where the earthquake occurs.
|-
| 11%
| You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series
| You have a 1/3 chance of winning the first comparison, and a 1/3 chance of winning the second. (1/3) * (1/3) = 1/9 ~ 0.11 = 11% .
|-
| rowspan="3"|12%
| A randomly-chosen American lives in {{w|California}}
| California is the most populous state in the US. Out of the approximately 328.2 million Americans (as of 2019), 39.51 million live in California. This means that a randomly chosen American has about a 39.51/328.2 ≈ 10.33% chance of living in California. Due to population change and rounding based on different sources, this could be pushed to 12%.
|-
| You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries
| Assuming you don't repeat previous wrong guesses, the probability is 6/52 ≈ 11.54%.
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|US President}}
| Presidents {{w|James Polk}} and {{w|Warren Harding}} share a birthday, and are the only presidents so far (in 2020) to do so. Additionally, {{w|Grover Cleveland}} served two non-consecutive terms and is counted twice (as the 22nd and 24th presidents). He therefore shares a birthday with himself. With 43 distinct birthdays, the odds of sharing a birthday are 43/365 ≈ 12%. (This does not consider February 29 or that more births occur on some days than others.)
|-
| rowspan="3"|13%
| A {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d6}} beats a {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d20}}
| The odds of a d6 beating a d20 are (0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5)/(6*20) = 0.125 ≈ 13% .
|-
| An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
| Entering Q3, 0:00, and -10 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 12.6% or 12.8% .
|-
| You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 .
|-
| 14%
| A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a D6 die roll
| {{w|Scrabble}} is a game in which you place lettered tiles to form words. Most of the scores per letter are 1, making it rare to beat a d6. The odds are (70/100)(0) + (7/100)(1/6) + (8/100)(2/6) + (10/100)(3/6) + (1/100)(4/6) + (4/100)(6/6) ≈ 14%.
|-
| 15%
| You roll a D20 and get at least 18
| The set of "at least 18" on a d20 is 18, 19, and 20. The odds of rolling one of these is 3/20 = 15% .
|-
| 16%
| Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one
| Steph Curry's FT percentage is 91%, so (0.91)(0.09) = 8.19% . However, the order of these is irrelevant, so the total odds are 16.38% .
|-
| 17%
| You roll a D6 die and get a 6
| The odds are 1/6 ≈ 17% .
|-
| 18%
| A D6 beats or ties a D20
| The odds are (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6)/(120) = 17.5% .
|-
| 19%
| At least one person in a random pair is left-handed
| The chances of being left handed is about 10%, so the probability of both people in the pair not being left-handed is 0.92=0.81, and 1-0.81=0.19.
|-
| 20%
| You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of browns is either 0.124 or 0.125 . (1 - 0.125)^12 ≈ 20.1%; (1 - 0.124)^12 ≈ 20.4% .
|-
| 21%
| {{w|St. Louis}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in St. Louis is 21%.
|-
| 22%
| An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime
| Entering Q2, 0:00, and -10 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 22.3% or 22.5% .
|-
| rowspan="2"| 23%
| You get an M&M and it's blue
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of blues is either 0.207 or 0.25 .
|-
| You share a birthday with a US senator
| There are 100 Senators, but 31 Senators share 15 birthdays and 69 Senators have unique birthdays, so there are a total of 84 days of the year that are the birthday of a Senator.
|-
| 24%
| You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter
| The winter lasts ~24% of the year, so ~24% of birthdays are in the winter.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 25%
| You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall
| The fall lasts ~25% of the year, so ~25% of birthdays are in the fall. This statement would also have been true for spring.
|-
| You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.
| An M&M can land on one of two sides, one with an M and one without. The odds of "rolling" two Ms is 1/4 = 25%. The term "rolling" is used jokingly in reference to the d6s and d20s above, suggesting that an M&M is a standard d2; this becomes especially true once you consider that a more accurate reference would have been to a coin, not a die.
|-
| 26%
| You correctly guess someone was born in the summer
| The summer lasts ~26% of the year, so ~26% of birthdays are in the summer.
|-
| 27%
| LeBron James misses a free throw
| James' career FT percentage is 73%, so the probability of missing is 27%.
|-
| 32%
| {{w|Pittsburgh}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in Pittsburgh is 32%.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 33%
| A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title
| Episodes II (Attack of the Clones), III (Revenge of the Sith), and VI (Return of the Jedi) are the movies. This gives the odds of 3/9 ≈ 33% .
|-
| You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch
| The {{w|Monty Hall problem}} is a counterintuitive logic problem, in which you pick one of three doors at random. One of the doors has a car behind it, so the odds that you picked the door are 1/3 ≈ 33%. Thus, by not switching doors, your odds remain the same. The Monty Hall problem has previously appeared in [[1282: Monty Hall]] and [[1492: Dress Color]].
|-
| You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly
| The odds of beating an opponent on the first try by picking randomly is 1/3 ≈ 33% .
|-
| 34%
| You draw five cards and get an ace
| The odds are 1 - (48/52)(47/51)(46/50)(45/49)(44/48) ≈ 34% .
|-
| 35%
| A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in "random"
| The odds of drawing a letter in "random" are (6 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 8 + 2)/100 = 35% .
|-
| 39%
| LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one
| LeBron James' FT percentage is 73% , so the odds are (0.73)(0.27) = 19.71% . However, the order is irrelevant, so the odds are actually twice, or 39.42% .
|-
| 40%
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Steph Curry"
| The odds of drawing a letter in "Steph Curry" are (4 + 6 + 12 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 4 + 6 + 2)/100 = 40% .
|-
| 46%
| There's a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years
|
|-
| rowspan="2"|48%
| {{w|Milwaukee}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in Milwaukee is 48%.
|-
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen
| The odds of a Scrabble tile being in her name are (2 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 2 + 12 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 6)/100 = 48% .
|-
| 50%
| You get heads in a coin toss
| There are two options in a coin toss, heads or tails, so the odds of getting heads is 50% (1/2).
|-
| 53%
| {{w|Salt Lake City}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in Salt Lake City is 53%.
|-
| 54%
| LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both
| James' career FT percentage is 73%, so the probability of making 2 FT is (73%)2 = 53.9%.
|-
| 58%
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Nate Silver"
| {{w|Nate Silver}} is a recurring person on xkcd. The odds of a Scrabble tile being in his name are (6 + 9 + 6 + 12 + 4 + 9 + 4 + 2 + 6)/100 = 58% .
|-
| 60%
| You get two M&Ms and neither is blue
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of blues is either 0.207 or 0.25 . (1 - 0.207)^2 ≈ 62.9%; (1 - 0.25)^2 ≈ 56.3%.
|-
| 65%
| {{w|Burlington, Vermont}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in Burlington is 65%.
|-
| 66%
| A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice
| The titles are:
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Fellowship '''of the''' Ring''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Two Towers''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Return '''of the''' King''
All of them have “of the” at least once, in “The Lord of the Rings”, but only the first and third have it twice, and 2/3 ≈ 66%. This number typically rounds up to 67% , however, and it is unclear why it is not, given that the same reduced fraction is written in the 67% category below.
|-
| 67%
| You roll at least a 3 with a d6
| The set of "at least 3" on a d6 refers to 3, 4, 5, and 6. The odds are 4/6 ≈ 67%.
|-
| 71%
| A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll
| This is a typo, as the correct probability is at the 14% entry. A random (d6) die roll beats a random Scrabble tile 71% of the time. [[Randall]] probably meant to write '''A random d6 dice roll''' beats '''a random Scrabble tile'''.
|-
| 73%
| LeBron James makes a free throw
| This is James' career FT percentage, 73%.
|-
| 75%
| You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the "M" up so it's clear they're not Skittles
| The odds of at least one 'M' showing up is 1 - (1/4) = 75% . The reference to {{w|Skittles}} is that the two candies look similar to one another, and Randall has probably bit into a Skittle thinking it was an M&M, or vice versa. This trick might prevent that from happening in the future.
|-
| 76%
| You get two M&Ms and neither is red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 . (1 - 0.131)^2 ≈ 75.5%; (1 - .125)^2 ≈ 76.6%.
|-
| 77%
| You get an an M&M and it's not blue
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of blues is either 0.207 or 0.25 . (1 - 0.207) = 79.3%; (1 - 0.25) = 75.0%.
|-
| 78%
| An NBA team wins when they're up 10 at halftime
| Entering Q2, 0:00, and 10 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 77.5% or 77.7% .
|-
| 79%
| St. Louis doesn't have a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in St. Louis is 21%, thus the probability of ''no'' snow cover is 79%.
|-
| 81%
| Two random people are both right-handed
| The probability of 1 person being right-handed is about 90%, thus the probability of 2 right-handers is (90%)2 = 81%.
|-
| 83%
| Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both
| Curry's career FT percentage is 91%, so the probability of making 2 FTs is (91%)2 = 82.81%.
|-
| 85%
| You roll a d20 and get at least a 4
| The set "at least 4" on a d20 refers to 4, 5, 6... 18, 19, 20. The odds of this are 17/20 = 85% .
|-
| rowspan="2"| 87%
| An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
| Entering Q3, 0:00, and 10 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 87.2% or 87.4% .
|-
| Someone fails to guess your card given 7 tries
|Assuming they guess seven different cards, there are 45 unguessed cards left. 45/52 = 0.865384615 ~ 86.5%
|-
| 88%
| A randomly chosen American lives outside California
| This is the opposite of the previous California probability. As the probability of an American living in California is 12%, the opposite would be 88%.
|-
| 89%
| You roll a 3 or higher given two tries
| The probability of rolling a 3 or higher (on a 6-sided die) is 66%, so the percentage of rolling a 3 or higher given 2 tries is 1 - (1-.66)2 = 89%.
|-
| 90%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries
| Assuming they guess five different cards, there are 47 unguessed cards left. 47/52 = 0.90385 ~ 90%
|-
| rowspan="2"| 91%
| You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August
| If the odds of someone being born in August are ~9% , then the odds that a person was not born in August are ~91%. (In an average month, 8 1/3% of the population was born. August has an above average number of days, but still only about 8.5% of the year is in August.)
|-
| Steph Curry makes a free throw
| This is Curry's career FT percentage, 91%.
|-
| 92%
| You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong
| On average, a month lasts 8⅓% of the year. Thus, if you were to guess someone's birth month at random, you would be wrong 91 ⅔% of the time.
|-
| 93%
| Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries
| James' career FT percentage is 73%, so the percentage of his making at least 1 FT given 2 tries is 1 - (1-.73)2 = 93%.
|-
| 94%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries
| The odds of this happening are (51/52)(50/51)(49/50) ≈ 94% .
|-
| 95%
| An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime
| Entering Q2, 0:00, and 20 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 94.7% or 94.8% .
|-
| 96%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries
| The odds of this happening are (51/52)(50/51) ≈ 96% .
|-
| 97%
| You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail
| The odds of this happening are 1 - (1/2)5 ≈ 97% .
|-
| 98%
| You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week
| The odds of this happening are about 51/52 ≈ 98%. (This depends on the week; there are more births in early October and fewer in holiday weeks.)
|-
| 98.5%
| An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins
| Entering Q4, 8:00, and 15 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 98.0% or 98.6% .
|-
| 99%
| Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries
| James' career FT percentage is 91%, so the percentage of his making at least 1 FT given 2 tries is 1 - (1-.91)2 = 99%.
|-
| 99.5%
| An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins
| Entering Q2, 0:00, and 30 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 99.4% .
|-
| 99.7%
| You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong
| The odds of this are 364/365 ≈ 99.7%.
|-
| 99.8%
| There's not a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 quake in {{w|California}} next year
|
|-
| 99.9%
| A random group of three people contains a right-hander
| About 90% of people are right-handed, so the percentage of at least 1 right-hander in a group of 3 is 1 - (1-.9)3 = 99.9%.
|-
| 99.99%
| You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number
| There are nine digits in a Social Security Number, but the last four are commonly used as an identity verification factor. The odds of this are 1 - (1/10)4 = 99.99% .
|-
| 99.9999999999999995%
| You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 earthquake in {{w|California}}!" and are wrong
| This probability combines two events.

First, the probability that a random 10-digit telephone number belongs to Obama is 1/1010. This ignores potential complications from Obama owning multiple phones or failing to answer personally (perhaps using an assistant or answering machine). Additionally, it assumes numbers are dialed at random rather than making more intelligent guesses like using likely addresses to guess area codes.

Second, the probability of a magnitude 8 California quake is given in a previous entry as 0.2% per year. Although the time window for an earthquake to "just occur" is not given, a 15 minute window corresponds (within rounding error) to the total probability given.
|-
| 0.00000001%
| You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up
| Carly Rae Jepsen is a Canadian singer. As Canada uses the 10-digit {{w|North American Numbering Plan}}, the odds of a random number being hers would be 1 - (1/10)10 = 0.00000001%. Like Obama, this ignores the possibility that she has multiple phones or that she doesn't answer personally.
|}

===References===
{{#tag:references}}

==Trivia==
In the original comic, "outside" in the 88% probability section is spelled incorrectly as "outide". In addition, the 39% section had "two free throw" instead of "throws".

The (seemingly unimportant) odds of LeBron James' versus Stephen Curry's free throws and names in Scrabble refer to [[2002: LeBron James and Stephen Curry]].

==Transcript==
<big>Probability Comparisons</big>

0.01% You guess the last four digits of someone's social security number on the first try

0.1% Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed

0.2% You draw 2 random Scrabble tiles and get M and M

You draw 3 random M&Ms and they're all red

0.3% You guess someone's birthday in one try.

0.5% An NBA team down by 30 at halftime wins

You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow

1% Steph Curry gets two free throws and misses both

LeBron James guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses

1.5% You get two M&Ms and they're both red

You share a birthday with a Backstreet Boy

2% You guess someone's card on the first try

3% You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right

Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game

4% You sweep a 3-game rock paper scissors series

Portland, Oregon has a white Christmas

You share a birthday with two US Senators

5% An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins

You roll a natural 20

6% You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries

7% LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both

8% You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries

9% Steph Curry misses a free throw

10% You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades

There's a magnitude 8+ earthquake in the next month

11% You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series

12% A randomly-chosen American lives in California

You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries

You share a birthday with a US President

13% A d6 beats a d20

An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins

You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red

14% A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a d6 die roll

15% You roll a d20 and get at least 18

16% Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one

17% You roll a d6 die and get a 6

18% A d6 beats or ties a d20

19% At least one person in a random pair is left-handed

20% You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown

21% St. Louis has a white Christmas

22% An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime

23% You get an M&M and it's blue

You share a birthday with a US senator

24% You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter

25% You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall

You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.

26% You correctly guess someone was born in the summer

27% LeBron James misses a free throw

32% Pittsburgh has a white Christmas

33% A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title

You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch

You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly

34% You draw five cards and get an ace

35% A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in "random"

39% LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one

40% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Steph Curry"

46% There's a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years

48% Milwaukee has a white Christmas

A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen

50% You get heads in a coin toss

53% Salt Lake City has a white Christmas

54% LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both

58% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Nate Silver"

60% You get two M&Ms and neither is blue

65% Burlington, Vermont has a white Christmas

66% A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice

67% You roll at least a 3 with a d6

71% A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll

73% LeBron James makes a free throw

75% You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the "M" up so it's clear they're not Skittles

76% You get two M&Ms and neither is red

77% You get an an M&M and it's not blue

78% An NBA team wins when they're up 10 at halftime

79% St. Louis doesn't have a white Christmas

81% Two random people are both right-handed

83% Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both

85% You roll a d20 and get at least a 4

87% An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4th quarter wins

Someone fails to guess your card given 7 tries

88% A randomly chosen American lives outside California

89% You roll a 3 or higher given two tries

90% Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries

91% You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August

Steph Curry makes a free throw

92% You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong

93% Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries

94% Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries

95% An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime

96% Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries

97% You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail

98% You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week

98.5% An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins

99% Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries

99.5% An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins

99.7% You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong

99.8% There's not a magnitude 8 quake in California next year

99.9% A random group of three people contains a right-hander

99.99% You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number

99.9999999999999995% You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a magnitude 8 earthquake in California!" and are wrong

0.00000001% You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up

Sources: https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Nate Silver]]
[[Category:Basketball]]
[[Category:Christmas]]
[[Category:Food]]

2292: Thermometer

2020-04-11T03:17:46Z

162.158.78.226: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2292
| date = April 10, 2020
| title = Thermometer
| image = thermometer.png
| titletext = I hate how many times you have to press it to get to the system normal people use, degrees Rømer.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a ROGUE RADIAN. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic expresses comedic undiscussed frustration at the difference between expected units of {{w|temperature}} in different contexts. [[Randall]], as an engineer, would likely have strong opinions with units, as unit conversion is often a gripe for many engineers.

[[Cueball]] may be sick or ill, and is trying to check his {{w|Human body temperature|body temperature}}, but he is unclear what the results mean. Cueball's {{w|thermometer}} has several units, of which the four shown grow progressively and humorously less useful:

*{{w|Celsius}} units are used in most of the world. They set 0 degrees to water's freezing point and 100 degrees to water's boiling point. Randall lives in Boston, USA, one of the only countries where Celsius is not used for health measurements. The health relevent temperatures are discussed only in Fahrenheit in the USA.
*{{w|Kelvin}} is a unit often used in scientific fields. It is based on Celsius, with 1 Celsius degree equivalent to 1 Kelvin degree, where 0 K is {{w|absolute zero}} or -273 °C.
*Degrees {{w|Rankine scale|Rankine}} are similar to Kelvin, but far less well known. It is the Fahrenheit equivalent to Kelvin, starting at absolute zero with 0°R equal to -459 °F, and 1 Fahrenheit degree being equivalent to 1 Rankine degree.
*In a scientific sense, temperature is the average {{w|kinetic energy}} of a group of particles. Using {{w|Boltzmann's Constant}}, one can convert between the kinetic energy and temperature.
The use of these last three units for home temperature gauging is ridiculous, as Kelvin and Rankine are far too large and uncommon to be practical for the average user, while kinetic energy is scaled so wildly that no user would likely know it; this is why Boltzmann's Constant is printed on the thermometer.

In the last frame Cueball calls the thermometer the worst. From a nerd's perspective this would be an extraordinary device, offering even exotic temperature scales. However, a "normal person" would find this thermometer terribly difficult to use for everyday purposes, like checking their body temperature, or the temperature of food.

{{w|Fahrenheit}} is not shown, though Cueball presumably (until seeing the title text) wants to use it. It is primarily used in the United States and generally appreciated for 0 degrees being "really cold" and 100 degrees being "really hot", but is defined as 32°F for the freezing point of water and 212°F as the boiling point of water (earlier definitions used a rescaled Rømer scale, the temperature of brine, or the body temperature of a healthy human.)

The title text references an archaic temperature unit, {{w|Rømer scale|Rømer}}, which is a scale whose fixed points are 7.5 as water's freezing point and 60 as water's boiling point. A unit on the Rømer scale is about 40/21 of a unit on the Celsius scale.

In [[1643: Degrees]], Cueball struggles with which temperature unit to use, and ultimately tells his friend the temperature in {{w|radian}}s, which is not a valid temperature scale. In [[1923: Felsius]], Randall proposes a combined Fahrenheit/Celsius temperature scale called Felsius.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[Cueball stands in the center of the panel holding a thermometer.]
:Cueball: This thermometer is in Celsius. How do you change it?
:Off-panel voice: Long press the button.

:[Cueball presses the button, and the thermometer beeps]
:''Press''
:''Beep''
:Thermometer: Units: Kelvin
:Cueball: No...

:[Cueball presses the button, and the thermometer beeps]
:''Press''
:''Beep''
:Thermometer: Units: Degrees Rankine
:Cueball: What.

:[Cueball presses the button, and the thermometer beeps]
:''Press''
:''Beep''
:Thermometer: Units: Average Translational Kinetic Energy
:Cueball: This is the worst thermometer.
:Off-panel voice: Boltzmann's constant is on the side if you need it.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Science]]
[[Category:Physics]]

2243: Star Wars Spoiler Generator

2019-12-19T00:33:51Z

162.158.78.226: /* Table */

{{comic
| number = 2243
| date = December 18, 2019
| title = Star Wars Spoiler Generator
| image = star wars spoiler generator.png
| titletext = The heroes seem to be gaining the upper hand until Darth Juul manages to flip the switch on the car wash control panel from 'REGULAR' to 'PREMIUM.'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by DARTH KYLE}}
On December 20, 2019 (2 days after the publication of this comic), the final movie of the "Skywalker saga" of ''Star Wars'' films, ''{{w|Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker}}'', will be released. It received a world premiere in Los Angeles on December 16, so there are lots of spoilers online, and also lots of people who want to avoid spoilers. Randall has created a flowchart that generates "spoilers" to the film, but as Randall probably has not seen the film (or, if he has, he doesn't actually want to spoil us), all of the so-called spoilers are nonsensical.

The formula for each spoiler is as follows: "In this Star Wars movie, our heroes return to take on the First Order and new villain '''[villain name]''' with help from their new friend '''[friend name]'''. Rey builds a new lightsaber with a '''[color]''' blade, and they head out to confront the First Order's new superweapon, the '''[superweapon name]''', a space station capable of '''[evil plan]'''. They unexpectedly join forces with their old enemy '''[character]''' and destroy the superweapon in a battle featuring '''[strange event]'''. P.S. Rey's parents are '''[character]''' and '''[character]'''".

The {{w|First Order (Star Wars)|First Order}} is the main antagonist group in the ''Star Wars'' sequel trilogy series. In ''{{w|Star Wars: The Force Awakens}}'', they use a superweapon in their base, Starkiller Base, to destroy the planetary system housing the headquarters of the New Republic, the democratic government which was formed after the Empire's defeat in ''{{w|Return of the Jedi}}''.

"Building a {{w|lightsaber}}" is one of the rites of passage for becoming a Jedi Knight. In the prequel trilogy, new Jedi build lightsabers as an official part of the journey towards Knighthood, and in the original trilogy, Luke Skywalker builds a lightsaber between ''The Empire Strikes Back'' and ''Return of the Jedi'' as part of his training with Yoda. Rey has used the lightsaber that Anakin Skywalker made and used (which Luke also used when he was a new Jedi) for the first two movies of the sequel trilogy, and so it would be thematically appropriate for her to build her own prior to the trilogy's final entry. Most Jedi's lightsabers are either blue or green, with a few notable exceptions (e.g. Mace Windu's purple lightsaber signifies his incredible combat prowess). Kyber crystals are aligned with the Light Side of the Force, so Sith must overpower and "bleed" their crystals before they will function for them, which causes their distinctive red color. Having a lightsaber of a color other than blue, green, or red is often seen in the ''Star Wars'' fandom as a sign of being a "Mary Sue", which is an accusation which has been made of Rey.

Another common plot point in ''Star Wars'' media is the construction, use, and destruction of a superweapon. These are inspired by stories and media of World War II, in which militaries sought to find, attack, and destroy critical elements of their enemies' resources and infrastructure, and meanwhile would construct elaborate defenses for themselves. The attack on the Death Star in particular is inspired by {{w|Operation Chastise}}, the "bouncing bomb" attack on Germany's hydroelectric power plants; Operation Chastise was dramatised in the 1951 book and 1955 film ''The Dam Busters'', which was [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNdb03Hw18M very thoroughly homaged].

{{w|Rey (Star Wars)|Rey}}, one of the main characters in the sequel trilogy series is an orphan, who was left behind on the planet Jakku as a child. As Rey is Force-sensitive and adept at using a lightsaber, there is much speculation among Star Wars fans as to the identity of her parents. In ''{{w|Star Wars: The Last Jedi}}'', villain Kylo Ren tells her that she is the child of "filthy junk traders", but many fans speculate that he was lying to her.

This is the second false fact generating comic, after [[1930: Calendar Facts]].

==Table==
{| class="wikitable"
! Entry
! Explanation
|-
! colspan="2" | New villain
|-
| Kyle Ren
|Kyle Ren is one letter away from {{w|Kylo Ren|''Kylo'' Ren}}, the adopted "Sith name" of Ben Solo, son of Han and Leia Solo. Kylo is one of the antagonists of the first two movies in the sequel trilogy, and presumably will be so in the third, but there's nobody in the films named "Kyle". (There are a handful of ''Legends'' characters named Kyle, most famously Kyle Katarn, protagonist of the ''Star Wars: Jedi Knight'' video game series.)
|-
| {{w|Malloc}}
| Malloc is a function used in the C programming language to allocate more memory in the running of a program. Malloc may sound similar to {{w|Darth Maul|Maul}}, one of the villains in ''{{w|Star Wars: The Phantom Menace}}'' and in other Star Wars series.
|-
|Darth Sebelius
| {{w|Sebelius}} is the last name of several US people. {{w|Kathleen Sebelius}} is a former state representative and governor of Kansas who was Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services under President Obama. Randall may have chosen this surname as it sounds similar to {{w|Darth Sidious}}, the overarching villain in the first 6 Star Wars films, who is rumored to return in the upcoming film.
|-
|{{w|Theranos}}
|Theranos was a medical technology company founded by {{w|Elizabeth Holmes}} which claimed to have developed revolutionary blood tests that could produce more data from limited volumes of blood than ever before. They were eventually found to have engaged in fraudulent activity, having tricked investors into thinking their technology was performing better than it actually was or ever could, which resulted in fines for Holmes and Theranos president {{w|Ramesh Balwani}} and the bankruptcy of Theranos. Theranos also sounds similar to {{w|Thanos}}, the main villain of the Infinity Saga in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
|-
|Lord Juul
|{{w|Juul}} is a brand of e-cigarettes. In addition to the broader controversy surrounding electronic cigarettes, Juul has been investigated for its sale of flavored additives for their cigarettes, which are alleged to be particularly attractive to minors.
|-
! colspan="2" | New friend
|-
| Kim Spacemeasurer
| May be a parody of the name {{w|Luke Skywalker}}, one of the main characters in the original trilogy of films. Other "Nounverber" names in ''Star Wars'' include Starkiller, Luke's original last name which was later applied to Starkiller Base in ''The Awakens'', and Biggs Darklighter, Luke's childhood friend and fellow Rebel pilot who died in the attack on the original Death Star.
|-
|Teen Yoda
|{{w|The Child (Star Wars character)|The Child}}, commonly called "Baby Yoda" by fans and the media, is a breakout character from the Disney+ series ''{{w|The Mandalorian}}''. Randall envisions a "teenage" version of this character teaming up with the main characters.
|-
|Dab Tweetdeck
| A {{w|Dab (dance)|dab}} is a dance move which is many decades old but was made popular by that name in the late 2010's. {{w|TweetDeck}} is an application for managing Twitter accounts. Taken together, "Dab Tweetdeck" could be a character name proposed by clueless Disney executives to attract "the kids" to see ''The Rise of Skywalker'', although one would think that this name would be heavily promoted and thus not a spoiler in that case.
|-
| Yaz Progestin
| Yaz sounds like the first name of {{w|Maz Kanata}}, a supporting protagonist in the sequel trilogy. {{w|Progestin}} is a type of medication which imitates the effects of {{w|progesterone}}, a female sex hormone. They are used for various purposes, including birth control, fertility, and appetite stimulation.
|-
| TI-83
| Droids in the Star Wars universe typically have names with letters and numbers, such as R2D2, C-3PO, BB-8, etc. Randall has created a new character called "TI-83". In real life, the {{w|TI-83}} is a common model of graphing calculator manufactured by Texas Instruments. This mirrors the origin of the name "R2-D2", which was inspired when Lucas was working on ''{{w|American Graffiti}}'' and was asked for Reel 2, Dialog Track 2, which was abbreviated "R-2-D-2". He remarked that it would be a "great name" and included it in his then-in-development script for ''Star Wars''.
|-
! colspan="2" | lightsaber colors
|-
| [beige/ochre/mauve/aquamarine/taupe]
| These are different types of colors, none of which is a "traditional" color for a lightsaber. {{w|Beige}} is a pale-grayish yellow. {{w|Ochre}} is a clay earth pigment ranging from yellow to deep orange or brown. {{w|Mauve}} is a pale purple color. A purple color has been used for a lightsaber in the prequel trilogy series, by Jedi Master {{w|Mace Windu}}. {{w|Aquamarine (color)|Aquamarine}} is a blueish green color. {{w|Taupe}} is a dark brown color between brown and gray.
|-
! colspan="2" | superweapon names
|-
|Sun Obliterator
|
|-
|Moonsquisher
|
|-
|World Eater
| Possibly a reference to {{w|Alduin}}, the main villain of the popular game {{w|The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim}}.
|-
|Planet Zester
|
|-
|Superconducting supercollider
| A {{w|supercollider}}, or particle accelerator, is a machine used to accelerate charged particles to very high speeds, for testing in particle physics.
|-
! colspan="2" | station capabilities
|-
|blowing up a planet with a bunch of beams of energy that combine into one
|This is how the {{w|Death Star}} was depicted in ''{{w|Star Wars: A New Hope}}''. Many beams converged together to form one energy beam. The superweapon was used to destroy the planet Alderaan, as an intimidation tactic against Princess Leia.
|-
|blowing up a bunch of planets with one beam of energy that splits into many
|This is how the superweapon on Starkiller Base was depicted in ''{{w|Star Wars: The Awakens}}''. A single energy beam split into several beams, allowing it to attack many planets. The superweapon was used to destroy the planets in the Hosnian system, the headquarters of the New Republic.
|-
|cutting a planet in half and smashing the halves together like two cymbals
|This could relate to the Demon Core, a mass of plutonium.
|-
|increasing the CO2 levels in a planet's atmosphere, causing rapid heating
|This seems to have occurred on the planet {{w|Venus}}. Venus is 97% carbon dioxide, and is also the hottest planet in the Solar System, due to a greenhouse effect, preventing the planet from cooling.
|-
|triggering the end credits before the movie is done
|The {{w|closing credits}} or end credits of a film is the list of cast and crew who were involved in the making of the film. It would be quite strange to show the end credits of the film before it has concluded. This entry is considerably less damaging{{Citation needed}} than the other 4 entries in this section.
|-
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:<big>Star Wars Spoiler Generator</big>

:[Shown below is a branching flowchart of sorts that begins at the phrase "In this Star Wars movie, our heroes return to take on the First Order and new villain...", then flows through various paths to build up a story.]

:In this Star Wars movie, our heroes return to take on the First Order and new villain...
::Kyle Ren
::Malloc
::Darth Sebelius
::Theranos
::Lord Juul

:...with help from their new friend...
::Kim Spacemeasurer
::Teen Yoda
::Dab Tweetdeck
::Yaz Progestin
::TI-83

:Rey builds a new lightsaber with a...
::beige
::ochre
::mauve
::aquamarine
::taupe

:...blade, and they head out to confront the First Order's new superweapon, the...
::Sun Obliterator
::Moonsquisher
::World Eater
::Planet Zester
::Superconducting Supercollider

:...a space station capable of...
::blowing up a planet with a bunch of beams of energy that combine into one
::blowing up a bunch of planets with one beam of energy that splits into many
::cutting a planet in half and smashing the halves together like two cymbals
::increasing the CO2 levels in a planet's atmosphere, causing rapid heating
::triggering the end credits before the movie is done

:They unexpectedly join forces with their old enemy...
::Boba Fett
::Salacious Crumb
::The Space Slug
::the bottom half of Darth Maul
::Youtube commenters

:...and destroy the superweapon in a battle featuring
::a bow that shoots little lightsaber-headed arrows
::X-Wings and TIE fighters dodging the giant letters of the opening crawl
::a Sith educational display that uses Force Lightning to demonstrate the dielectric breakdown of air
::Kylo Ren putting on another helmet over his smaller one
::a Sith car wash where the bristles on the brushes are little lightsabers

:P.S. Rey's parents are...
::Luke
::Leia
::Han
::Obi-Wan
::a random junk trader

:...and...
::Poe
::BB-8
::Amilyn Holdo
::Laura Dern
::a random junk trader
::that one droid from the Jawa Sandcrawler that says ''Gonk''

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Charts]]
[[Category:Star Wars]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]] 
[[Category:Programming]]

2232: Hotel Room Party

2019-11-22T18:23:42Z

162.158.78.226: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2232
| date = November 22, 2019
| title = Hotel Room Party
| image = hotel_room_party.png
| titletext = [proudly greeting the hotel manager at the door] "Did I do aa good job?"
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TRASHED HOTEL ROOM. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

It is a common trope that really wild parties in hotel rooms, particularly by rock bands on tour, end up trashing that hotel room as crazy party goers break and spill things. Such parties are widely perceived to be very fun, because they got so out of control. In this comic, [[Cueball]] (together with [[Hairy]], [[Ponytail]], [[White Hat]], [[Megan]], and [[Blondie]]) is misunderstanding cause and effect as he plans to throw a party where you trash a hotel room. Instead of planning a wild party, he is planning to calmly and deliberately trash the hotel room by assigning people to do damage. Unlike a real wild party, this is unlikely to be fun.{{Citation needed}} Also, because Cueball is so organized, he is also planning for maintenance and cleaning services to undo the damage. In actual trash-a-hotel-room parties the party goers are so hungover or tired afterward that they don't clean up but leave the damage. This often results in rock bands being charged large amounts of money after the fact for the hotel to do the repairs.

In addition to rock bands, trashing of hotel rooms are also featured in the Tailhook scandal of 1991, where naval officers [https://books.google.com/books?id=E6YY2P0C8wkC&pg=PA82&lpg=PA82&dq=tailhook+chainsaw&source=bl&ots=RCKVl3BThT&sig=ACfU3U2YI2QhSLY2RgXQqLCkl3tc6DO3tA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjttqCfqv7lAhXlJDQIHUsSCEgQ6AEwC3oECAkQAQ#v=onepage&q=tailhook%20chainsaw&f=false cut down a wall between two hotel suites with a chainsaw], while [https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/WildTeenParty trashing a home during a teenage party] while parents are away, and the mad rush to clean up the damage/evidence before the parents return, is a common trope in teen movies.

==Transcript==
:[ [[Hairy]], [[Ponytail]], [[Cueball]], [[White Hat]], [[Megan]], and [[Blondie]] are standing in a line. Cueball is raising his left hand with his pointer finger extended and is facing his left. He is also pointing to the right. The other five are facing Cueball.]
:Cueball: OK everyone, let's break into teams.
:Cueball: Katie, get the wire cutters and start disassembling the TV. You two can strip the wallpaper. Mike and I will work on shredding the mattress.
:Cueball: You, start shopping for maintenance and cleaning services. We don't want to leave the staff to deal with this.

:[Caption below the panel]: It's my first time throwing one of those parties where you trash a hotel room and I want to make sure I get it right.

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Blondie]]

== Trivia ==
* The title text to this comic originally read '[proudly greeting the hotel manager at the door] "Did I do aa good job?"' It is not clear if the 'aa' is a typo, or intentionally representing someone slurring their words because they are drunk or hung over from a party.
* Cueball gives instructions to a 'Mike' and a 'Katie' while giving instructions. Since Megan has a specific name, this suggests that either Ponytail or Blondie are named Katie, while either Hairy or White Hat are named Mike.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Blondie]]

Talk:2231: The Time Before and After Land

2019-11-21T05:16:40Z

162.158.78.226:

I believe that the "bees" are paired with words like "for" in the chart to draw similarities to the word "before"? [[Special:Contributions/172.68.54.34|172.68.54.34]] 21:49, 20 November 2019 (UTC)

Agreed. Has been changed. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.132.155|172.68.132.155]] 21:59, 20 November 2019 (UTC)

While the chart begins with Big Bang on the left side, I bee-lieve it's a history of our solar system, not the universe. When Rocky Planets formed is not a single specific point in time across the entire universe, and we have no idea if bees or thyme even exist beyond our planet. [[User:Ianrbibtitlht|Ianrbibtitlht]] ([[User talk:Ianrbibtitlht|talk]]) 23:12, 20 November 2019 (UTC)
: Not quite. The Earth formed with the rest of the solar system. And since "Rocky planets form" is shown earlier, it's presumably refers to rocky planets in the ''universe'' -- in ''other'', older star systems, rather than our own. --[[User:Aaron of Mpls|Aaron of Mpls]] ([[User talk:Aaron of Mpls|talk]])

As of this comment, this page is the first page to pop up when typing in the phrase "The Time for Beeland".
[[Special:Contributions/172.69.90.16|172.69.90.16]] 23:51, 20 November 2019 (UTC)

What's missing is [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdQY7BusJNU Time after Thyme] [[User:Capncanuck|Capncanuck]] ([[User talk:Capncanuck|talk]]) 00:45, 21 November 2019 (UTC)
:And big missed opportunity for "Four bees land on thyme" [[Special:Contributions/162.158.78.226|162.158.78.226]] 05:16, 21 November 2019 (UTC)

2002: LeBron James and Stephen Curry

2018-06-04T11:28:25Z

162.158.78.226: /* Explanation */ Was demonstrably false; now true

{{comic
| number = 2002
| date = June 4, 2018
| title = LeBron James and Stephen Curry
| image = lebron_james_and_stephen_curry.png
| titletext = The 538TR attempts to capture a player's combined skill at basketball (either real-life or NBA 2K18) and election forecasting.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a Basketball - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

At first glance, the comic looks like an in-depth analysis of two NBA star players, LeBron James and Stephen Curry. The joke is that while comprehensive, all the statistics are completely meaningless - many don't show any correlation, and if there is one, it's extremely unlikely there is any causal link in there.

The shot map shows from what position Curry's shots were scored compared to other NBA players. It shows that he scored several times from outside the playing field, including twice from the bleachers (which isn't a legal play), and once from the locker room (which is physically impossible due to multiple walls in between).

The note about the alignment with Magnetic North is likely a reference to Foxes. Artic and Red Foxes both have a ditinctive hunting method, called 'mousing', involving tracking prey that is hiding under the snow, then leaping into the air and diving into the snow head-first, to try to catch the prey. A study found that they are more likely (to a statistically significant degree) to catch their prey when mousing, when they start facing approximately 20 degrees east of Magnetic North. (link: [http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2011/01/11/foxes-use-the-earths-magnetic-field-as-a-targeting-system/])

Nate Silver is a political commentator and founder of FiveThirtyEight website, famous for getting everything right in 2012 US presidential elections, and getting everything approximately right in 2016.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:'''NBA Playoffs ''DataDive'' '''
:'''Lebron James and Stephen Curry'''
:'''What makes these superstars so extraordinary?'''

:[The comic consists of several plots and tables, listed here in western reading order]

:'''Scatter plot of Social Security Number vs Free throw percentage'''
:The social security numbers range from 000-00-0000 to 999-99-9999. No pattern discrenable, aside from points being a bit denser in the middle of the plot. Steven Curry is marked as a point on the right edge of the plot.

:'''Scatter plot of 2018 points per game vs Average teammate APGAR score'''
:Pattern suggests a somewhat positive link between the two factors. Lebon James is marked as having a lot of points, but low teammate score.

:'''Shot map'''
:A map of a basketball field is shown with dots placed where players have taken shots at the goal. Steven Curry has dots in a separate color. For the all players category the dots generally cluster next to the goal basket and in front of the three point line. Steven has no dots next to the basket, but does cluster next to the three point line. He also has several dots off the side of the playing field, including three in the bleachers and one in the locker room.

:'''Sandwiches eaten during play vs Win %'''
:A plot that suggests no relation between the factors because practically all dots are in the zero sandwiches column. 2018 Wariors have one dot marked as a high win % and 4 sandwiches.

:'''2018 total points'''
:A table listing teams and their total scores with an extra column labeled "When net is within 15° of magnetic north". The row for the Cleveland Cavaliers is highlighted and shows an abnormally high score in the magnetic north column.

:{| class = "wikitable"
! 2018 Total points
!
! When net is withing 15° of magnetic north
|-
!
! Overall
! North
|-
|'''Golden State Warriors'''
|'''9304'''
|'''330'''
|-
|Houston Rockets
|9213
|268
|-
|New Orleans Pelicans
|9161
|219
|-
|Toronto Raptors
|9156
|341
|-
|'''Cleveland Cavaliers'''
|'''9091'''
|'''1644'''
|-
|Denver Nuggets
|9020
|280
|}

:[A table at the bottom:]

:{| class = "wikitable"
!
! Stephen Curry
! Lebron James
|
|-
|Have you heard of him
|Probably
|Yes
|
|-
|President during most recent game 7 loss
|Obama
|Bush
|
|-
|Pog collection
|Large
|Staggeringly large
|
|-
|Career average fed interest rate
|3.42%
|4.41%
|
|-
|Name scrabble score
|22
|22
|
|-
|Best sport
|Basketball
|Basketball
|
|-
|Height
|Over 6'
|Over 6'
|
|-
|Retirement year
|2027
|Unknown
!Nate Silver
|-
|FiveThirtyEight total rating (devised by Nate Silver to combine all metrics into a single stat
|'''37.4'''
|'''31.8'''
|'''86.6'''
|}

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Sport]]

1893: Thread

2017-09-22T18:41:31Z

162.158.78.226: Fixed length of Interval from 250 to 200 years. An entire cycle is 250 years, with 50 years of threadfall and 200 years of Interval.

{{comic
| number = 1893
| date = September 22, 2017
| title = Thread
| image = thread.png
| titletext = Since the current Twitter threadfall kicked off in early 2016, we can expect it to continue until the mid 2060s when the next Interval begins.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Needs more. Do not delete this tag before the explanation is actually complete.}}

F'nor is a character from the popular sci-fi/fantasy series "{{w|Dragonriders of Pern}}," by Anne McCaffrey. He is posting a Twitter comment (a "thread" that's only one comment long, hence "1/1") about "Thread," a massively destructive alien organism from the same series. "Pern" is a fictional human-colonized planet and the main setting of the series.

Typically, when starting a series of tweets (used to have content longer than 140 characters), one will start the first tweet with "Thread: " and end it with 1/X. The second tweet will read 2/X, and so on. If X, the total number of tweets, is unknown at the start, it will be listed or 1/many or omitted: 1/

Here, there is a play on the Twitter thread and the actual threat to Pern.

"Threadfall" is the name for the beginning of 50-year cyclic periods when Thread attacks the world of Pern & its inhabitants, which occur between relatively safe "Intervals" of around 200 years. In the strip's alt text, as Threadfall occurred in 2016, it should be expected to continue for ~50 more years until 2060, when the next Interval will begin.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[A mock-up of a "tweet" from the site twitter.com is shown. It contains a mock-up of a user photo of the fictional character F'nor resembling Hairy, including a tiny line sketch of F'nor's brown dragon Canth flying overhead. Below the tweet are several action buttons typical of a twitter post for comments, replying, likes, etc.]

:F'nor
:@fnor
:Thread: The greatest threat to our life on Pern 1/1

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category: Comics featuring Hairy]]

Talk:1876: Eclipse Searches

2017-08-16T18:17:23Z

162.158.78.226:

I don't get it. - BK {{unsigned ip|108.162.216.16}}

Because people are apparently (according to the Google-search data, anyways) more excited about the upcoming eclipse than they were about the election, Cueball is predicting that society is going to go a little crazy when the eclipse actually happens. Megan adds that the traffic jams will likely be insurmountable and "if you're planning to be on the road, bring water"--i.e., don't expect to go anywhere fast. In the title text Mr. Munroe further explains this statement, noting that past eclipses have generated bad traffic jams and those were before the days of widespread social media networking, which will certainly make matters much worse. [[User:Berets|Berets]] ([[User talk:Berets|talk]]) 17:21, 14 August 2017 (UTC)

::To be fair, not that many of us were excited for election day. The Trumpists were excited. The #imwithheriguess weren't. We wanted Clinton because she wasn't Trump. Nervous about the insanity that would occur if Trump won, but not excited about the mediocrity that would happen if Clinton won. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.88|108.162.245.88]] 21:43, 14 August 2017 (UTC)
:::Don't forget the sizeable number of people who had the same opinions, but with the roles reversed (wanting Trump because he wasn't Hillary). Most of the people I know who wanted Trump were in that group. [[User:Mulan15262|Mulan15262]] ([[User talk:Mulan15262|talk]]) 04:02, 15 August 2017 (UTC)
:I guess the association with traffic jams is that in the USofA, people are used to stand for hours in line to vote. --[[Special:Contributions/198.41.242.29|198.41.242.29]] 17:47, 14 August 2017 (UTC)

I remember the 1970 eclipse! Here in Northern Virginia, it was nearly total. I was nine and my dad made us a pinhole camera. Now I'm gonna have to make one for my kids, since it looks like the goggles are pretty much sold out. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.118|162.158.255.118]] 19:08, 14 August 2017 (UTC)

I understand this XKCD differently. The fact that no one looks up "eclipse" is that something bad will happen during it, that's why Cueball is urged to bring water, as in essential survival gear. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.106|108.162.216.106]] 20:12, 14 August 2017 (UTC) AM
:Yeah, and the Moon will fall into the Sun like the ISS did before: [[1830: ISS Solar Transit 2]] --[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 22:26, 14 August 2017 (UTC)
: Sounds more like 1868 (shouldn't that be linked in the explanation?) :) [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 05:29, 15 August 2017 (UTC)

: Not sure what you mean by “The fact that no one looks up "eclipse"” … the graph in the comic shows that ''loads'' of people are looking up "eclipse". [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.11|141.101.99.11]] 13:16, 16 August 2017 (UTC)

What's funny to me is that this growing interest is completely fictitious within the context of my experience, LOL! I have LITERALLY only heard about this eclipse on XKCD, if it were any other comic I would never even have the thought that an eclipse might really be coming. :) I've really seen and heard no mention anywhere else (all I can think right now is that this explanation talks about it crossing the States, maybe it'll be too south to see here in Canada, therefore nobody around here is interested?). It also mystifies me how this and 1868 (again, shouldn't it be linked here?) seem to be making a mountain out of a molehill. An eclipse isn't this weird, uncommon, unheard-of phenomenon, why the big deal???!?! [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 05:29, 15 August 2017 (UTC)

: Because Eclipses are awesome. Its like a good song on the radio it passes quickly but sticks with you for days (or weeks) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.250|141.101.98.250]] 07:29, 15 August 2017 (UTC)
:: Good songs on radio? I heard about these, but I doubt such mystical thing exists. As for the eclipse: I guess I'll watch the live stream. Or sleep. [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 07:45, 15 August 2017 (UTC)
: Yes, eclipses are not too uncommon, but you still have to be lucky to experience one first hand. "Watching a live stream" of an eclipse is like watching porn: Both can be entertaining, but it's nothing like the real thing. [[User:LordHorst|LordHorst]] ([[User talk:LordHorst|talk]]) 08:52, 15 August 2017 (UTC)

:I've heard talk about it outside of XKCD, but I live and work in the 90% band so I think that you are correct about the local variation in how much people care.[[Special:Contributions/108.162.237.232|108.162.237.232]] 14:04, 15 August 2017 (UTC)

:This eclipse will have a nearly 70 mile wide path of totality cross the entire continental US. The next major eclipse in the US will be in 2024, but it will cross from Mexico through the Great Lakes and New England. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.65.36|172.68.65.36]] 17:44, 15 August 2017 (UTC)

:I have seen two total eclipses and I am really sad I could not fit it into my plans to be in the totality band in the US this Monday. There is no reason to watch it live streamed, you could see one of the old any time you like. It has nothing on a real Eclipse. There is no doubt in my mind that experiencing those two total eclipses are the most crazy and beautiful nature experiences I have ever had. The one you are going to see this Monday is part of a long series. Each series of eclipses reappear every 18 years 1/3 around the globe to the west. So this eclipse is the next in the series of the first I saw in Europe (I was in Hungary) in August 1999. And the one mentioned in 2024 was the one I say in 2006 in Turkey. I live in Denmark so I had to travel further for those two than most of the people in the US has to, and they even can travel domestic. Go there and have an experience of a life time. And hope that Trump do not cancel the Eclipse... See title text of both [[1302: Year in Review]] and [[1779: 2017]]... Enjoy it you lucky people living right next to the totality! ;-) --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 07:25, 16 August 2017 (UTC)

:This is the first total eclipse visible in the continental US since 1979. About half the current US population wasn't even born then. That totality was visible in a much smaller and mostly sparsely-populated part of the US. The last eclipse with totality visible near a significant percentage of the US population was in 1970. It's a pretty safe bet that >80% of the US population has never seen a total eclipse in person. So, while perhaps eclipses are an ordinary event for Canadians, the 2017 eclipse is indeed a "weird, uncommon, unheard-of phenomenon".[[Special:Contributions/162.158.78.226|162.158.78.226]] 18:17, 16 August 2017 (UTC)