explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:2383: Electoral Precedent 2020

2020-11-11T02:40:39Z

172.68.65.22: comment

Can anyone identify the faded background text in the 2016 panel?

Is there some shadow text behind the main text in the 2016 square? I can barely make it out.
It looks like "No nominee whose first name contains a "k" has lost", which would be the same from the 1122 comic.
[[User:ChunyangD|ChunyangD]] ([[User talk:ChunyangD|talk]]) 00:54, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

It's the alternative text from the 2016 one: "No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost." [[Special:Contributions/172.69.235.143|172.69.235.143]] 00:58, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

I'm quite sure that Obama did in fact have a campaign website in 2008 when he was a challenger. See http://www.4president.us/websites/2008/barackobama2008website.htm [[User:Bobjr|Bobjr]] ([[User talk:Bobjr|talk]]) 01:15, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:I think "challenger" means that they're going against the incumbent. Obama was up against McCain, who wasn't an incumbent. [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 01:31, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

How much do we want the explanation for this one to repeat what is in that of 1122?--[[User:Troy0|Troy0]] ([[User talk:Troy0|talk]]) 01:19, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:We shouldn't. If the explanation of 1122 is missing something it should be added there. [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 08:21, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

Didn't Clinton win after being impeached? [[User:Alcatraz ii|Alcatraz ii]] ([[User talk:Alcatraz ii|talk]]) 01:21, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:Yes, he was impeached during his first term. [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 01:31, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:: No, this is not true, Clinton was impeached during his 2nd term, in 1998, and he was not eligible for a 3rd term. George W. Bush won the following presidential election in 2000. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.34.42|172.69.34.42]] 01:35, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

You could also say Joe was the first President with a rescue dog [[User:Squire80513|Squire80513]] ([[User talk:Squire80513|talk]]) 01:57, 10 November 2020 (UTC)Squire80513
:Does not Lyndon B Johnson's dog, Yuki, count? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.159.128|162.158.159.128]] 02:30, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
::LBJ's Yuki was a "rescue" (found wandering aimlessly around a gas station) but not a "shelter" dog. Joe's dog is the first first canine from a shelter. It's subtle distinction that many repeating the statistic miss [[User:MAP|MAP]] ([[User talk:MAP|talk]]) 03:08, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

Point of order, why is Biden being referred to as president elect? I was under the impression that the term shouldn't be used until the dispute is resolved. With several pending legal cases and the votes uncertified by the states. -172.69.170.142 3:45 11/10/20 {{template:unsigned IP|172.69.170.142|03:45, 10 November 2020}}
: All major media sources have called the race for Biden as of Saturday, November 8th. XKCD, and this wiki, will follow the lead of the Associated Press or New York Times, both of whom say the race has concluded and Joe Biden is the president elect. -162.158.62.93 4:38 11/10/20 {{template:unsigned IP|162.158.62.93|04:38, 10 November 2020}}
:: Except for one of the most trusted- RealClearPolitics.com still has Pennsylvania up for grabs due to lawsuits and is about to move Michigan back into play after a poll worker claimed that a delivery of Biden-only votes came into a Detroit counting room at 3:30 am on November 4.[[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 14:26, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
::: Your assertion of trust without reason comes across as fake news; however, I checked the web.archive.org history for realclearpolitics.com, and it has over a decade of history. I also visited the site and at a cursor glance it might have rational articles from both political sides, which seems commendable. If it is actually trustworthy, why didn't you explain that it is and why it is, given the current news environment? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.77|162.158.62.77]] 14:53, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:::: My bad, I had assumed that the trio of sites covering the electoral college, 270toWin, RealClearPolitics, and 538 were all well known and respected sites by now, after having played a big role in the last 4 elections. [[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 15:25, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:: Not only that, but A) while "the votes uncertified by the states" may influence the exact total, they can't make Trump win, B) a Trump victory would require that ALL legal cases are resolved in Trump's favor (depending on uncertified votes) and C) the Republican party asked to Trump to concede victory, meaning that nobody with political experience believes those legal cases have a chance of success. The only unknown point is the result of the EC election, but it is naturally assumed they will vote for the elected candidate.[[Special:Contributions/172.69.55.104|172.69.55.104]] 08:29, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
: "Presumptive president elect" would be more accurate (and I say this as someone that voted for Biden). --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.72|108.162.219.72]] 10:06, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

I don't understand how the statement for 1876 could have been true: if J.Q. Adams won in 1824 without a popular majority, then his opponent won the majority and still lost, so Tilden couldn't have been the first in 1876 to win the majority and lose?[[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.38|141.101.98.38]] 08:54, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
: Simple: there were more than two candidates. In 1824, there were four candidates who each got over 10% of the vote. That's how Adams could win without the majority, without one of his opponents then having the majority. (In fact, Jackson had the plurality of the votes, but not the majority, but Adams was elected by the House.) --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.74|141.101.98.74]] 11:30, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
::Thanks![[Special:Contributions/162.158.159.96|162.158.159.96]] 16:57, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:::More details: {{w|1824 United States presidential election}}. Jackson only got about 41% of the popular vote (in states that had one -- not all did back then), and 99 out of 261 electoral votes (~38%). Nobody got enough votes in enough states for an electoral majority, so the election went to Congress. --[[User:Aaron of Mpls|Aaron of Mpls]] ([[User talk:Aaron of Mpls|talk]]) 00:41, 11 November 2020 (UTC)

Bad with formatting here, but I updated the bit about precedent to include that Trump's raw vote total (approx 71.5 million, also not yet certified) is ''also'' breaking the precedent set by Obama in 2008. Love them or hate them, in this high-turnout election, both major party candidates had record numbers for their raw vote totals. Trump doesn't make it to first place above Obama because Biden makes it to first place above Trump. I didn't look into whether the percentage of eligible population numbers are different, but higher turnout combined with higher population makes breaking that barrier a little easier.[[Special:Contributions/108.162.238.5|108.162.238.5]] 13:02, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:Especially since poll workers were caught on camera in Wisconsin putting Trump Votes upside-down into the scanner, but scanning Biden votes correctly.[[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 14:26, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
::How was this discovered? How can we hunt down more occurrences? Did the machine reject the ballots and the people fix the error? (and what are the ramifications of a camera recording vote ballots?) There is no reason to not suspect the opposite happens too: that anybody's votes could be put in upside down. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.77|162.158.62.77]] 14:55, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:::It's part of the lawsuit based on a complaint from an observer. But there is an easy way to track down and correct this problem on both sides- hold a recount.[[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 15:25, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
::::I have not found a reference to any current Wisconsin lawsuit. Seems like you should either document the claims or delete them.[[Special:Contributions/172.68.174.126|172.68.174.126]] 23:13, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

Honestly, the outcome's still not 100%, so, if, by some stroke of (bad?) luck, Trump becomes president again, then the precedents might change.- another user

Is it just me, or is Randall using this comic as an excuse to throw some shade on Trump? The two squares about Trump are "he has no military experience or political experience" and "he got impeached and then lost." He could've picked more neutral things (his age perhaps, or his appearance on WWE or something) so these choices seem pretty deliberate and, pointed, shall we say? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.63.183|172.69.63.183]] 00:13, 11 November 2020 (UTC)
:It's still in keeping with the other 'serious' precedents in prior elections, like not winning without a specific state, or having/not having certain experience. --[[User:Aaron of Mpls|Aaron of Mpls]] ([[User talk:Aaron of Mpls|talk]]) 00:41, 11 November 2020 (UTC)
::By Randall's standards, this "shade" is fairly mild. We already know that Randall is not a fan of Trump. The fact that Trump had no government or military experience, unlike all previous presidents, was well-known. And if Randall ever updates this strip after a future election, the item about Trump having been impeached wouldn't even be mentioned because that precedent ''wasn't'' broken. --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.65.22|172.68.65.22]] 02:40, 11 November 2020 (UTC)

== Table ==

If you really feel the need to explain every item in a table then please do so in comic 1122 as this is the original. [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 18:25, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

I removed the redundant options, sorry - user who made table (...Unsigned)
: When I changed the word from "Redundant" (I know what you meant, just that's not quite right) I was hoping to #anchor the link to the prior comic exactly upon the new(?) section someone set up with the previously-relevent lines of table. But it turns out there's only two href="#..."s on that page, and no section titles are given that honour (unlike, say, wikipedia's Table Of Contents entries) I don't want to try to mess with the expkcd wiki at that level of things, but I think it'd be slightly more useful to set that up than it would cost in effort (i.e. a slightly larger version of 'barely'). That's my suggestion, anyway. Just putting it out there. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.216|141.101.98.216]] 23:52, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

== Is there some joke to trump being impeached? ==

I thought he was acquitted, I checked wikipedia and they say he was acquitted. I'm not American if this is some in joke in America you guys may need to explain it.
Thank you :)
[[Special:Contributions/108.162.250.87|108.162.250.87]] 00:30, 11 November 2020 (UTC)
:He was impeached, which is an equivalent to being indicted (i.e. being formally charged with a crime, but in a way necessary to deal with statutory protections and obligations of elected officials), but at the next stage was (almost inevitably) acquitted. Because politics. (For some the impeachment was politics, for some the acquittal was politics. There'll be overlap, but also a very partisan split between those that definitely consider just the one of them to be politics, but not the same one.) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.7|162.158.158.7]] 00:57, 11 November 2020 (UTC)
::Or to put it another way, "impeached" in U.S. law doesn't mean "removed from office". The House of Representatives impeached Trump, but he was not convicted by the Senate; had he been convicted, he would have been removed from office. In fact, none of the three presidents who were impeached (Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Trump) were convicted by the Senate. --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.65.22|172.68.65.22]] 02:40, 11 November 2020 (UTC)

2379: Probability Comparisons

2020-11-03T05:00:10Z

172.68.65.22: /* Table */ corrected number of digits in a Social Security Number

{{comic
| number = 2379
| date = October 30, 2020
| title = Probability Comparisons
| image = probability comparisons new.png
| titletext = Call me, MAYBE.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by LEBRON JAMES THROWING M&Ms AT A KEYBOARD. The table for the explanations of the chances isn't complete, nor is the transcript. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This is a list of probabilities for different events. There are numerous recurring themes, of which the most common are free throws (13 entries), birthdays (12), dice (12, split about evenly between 6-sided (d6) and 20-sided (d20) types), {{w|M&M's|M&M}} candies (11), playing cards (9), {{w|NBA}} basketball mid-game victory predictions (9), {{w|Scrabble}} tiles (7), coins (7), white Christmases (7), and the NBA players {{w|Stephen Curry}} and {{w|LeBron James}} (7 each).

Themes are variously repeated and combined, for humorous effect. For instance, there are entries for both the probability that St. Louis will have a white Christmas (21%) and that it will not (79%). Also given is the 40% probability that a random Scrabble tile will contain a letter from the name "Steph Curry".

There are 80 items in the list, the last two of which devolve into absurdity - perhaps from the stress of preparing the other 78 entries.

The list may be an attempt to better understand probabilistic election forecasts for the {{w|2020 United States presidential election}}, which was four days away at the time this comic was published and had also been alluded to in [[2370: Prediction]] and [[2371: Election Screen Time]]. Statistician and {{w|psephologist}} {{w|Nate Silver}} is referenced in one of the list items. On the date this cartoon was published, Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight.com was publishing forecast probabilities of Donald Trump and Joe Biden winning the US Presidential election. [[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/]]. On 31 October 2020, the forecast described the chances of Donald Trump winning as "roughly the same as the chance that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. It does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)" A day previously, when the chances were 12%, the website had also described Trump's chances of winning as "slightly less than a six sided die rolling a 1".

The probabilities are calculated from [https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/ these sources], as mentioned in the bottom left corner.

The title text refers to the song "{{w|Call Me Maybe}}" by {{w|Carly Rae Jepsen}} (cited twice in the list). "MAYBE" is emphasized, perhaps because the probability of getting her phone number correct, as in the last item in the list, is very low. The capitalization could also be a reference to Scrabble tiles, as was previously mentioned in association with Carly Rae Jepsen.

==Table==
{| class="wikitable sortable"
! Odds
! Text
! Explanation
|-
| 0.01%
| You guess the last four digits of someone's {{w|Social Security Number}} on the first try
| There are nine digits in a {{w|Social Security Number}}, but the last four are commonly used as an identity verification factor. (1/10)4 = 0.0001, or 0.01%
|-
| 0.1%
| Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed
| The chances of having left-{{w|handedness}} is about [https://www.healthline.com/health/left-handers-and-health-risk 10%], and 10%3 = 0.1%.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.2%
| You draw 2 random {{w|Scrabble}} tiles and get M and M
| This appears to be an error. Under standard English {{w|Scrabble letter distribution}} there are 100 tiles of which 2 are M. This would give a probability of randomly drawing M and M as 2/100 × 1/99 ≈ 0.02%. However, other language editions of Scrabble have different letter distributions, some of which could allow this to be true.
|-
| You draw 3 random {{w|M&Ms}} and they're all red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 . 0.131^3 ≈ 0.225%; 0.125^3 ≈ 0.177% .
|-
| 0.3%
| You guess someone's birthday in one try.
| 1/365 ≈ 0.27%. Taking into account that a person might have been born February 29, the probability with a random guess is slightly lower. If the guesser knows on which days there are slightly more births (for example, early October, believed to be because of conceptions occurring on the evening of December 31) and which days there are slightly fewer (for examples, holidays on which a planned, pre-scheduled C-section is unlikely to be held), then the probability is slightly higher.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.5%
| An {{w|NBA}} team down by 30 at halftime wins
| This calculation, along with all related ones, use the source NBA Win Probability Calculator. Entering Q2, 0:00, and -30 into the calculator yields 0.6% .
|-
| You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of them that is brown or yellow is either 0.25 or 0.259 . 0.254≈ 0.39%; 0.2594 ≈ 0.45% .
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1%
| {{w|Steph Curry}} gets two free throws and misses both
| Curry is a 91% career free throw shooter, so the percentage of missing 1 FT is about 9%. The chance of missing 2 FTs is about 0.8% ≈ 1%.
|-
| {{w|LeBron James}} guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses
| LeBron James' free-throw odds are ~73% . The odds of him winning on the first round are 1/365, for the second (1/364)(0.73), for the third (1/363)(0.73)2... Summing all of these from 1 to 365 gives us his total odds of winning at any point in the game are ≈ 1.022% .
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1.5%
| You get two M&Ms and they're both red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 . 0.131^2 ≈ 1.7%; 0.125^2 ≈ 1.6% .
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|Backstreet Boys|Backstreet Boy}}
|Each of the five Backstreet Boys has a different birthday, so the odds that you share a birthday with one is 5/365.25 ≈ 1.3% .
|-
| 2%
| You guess someone's card on the first try
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), so the probability is 1/52, which is approximately 0.019 (1.9%).
|-
| rowspan="2"| 3%
| You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right
| The chance of correctly predicting a coin toss is 0.5. The chance of predicting 5 in a row is 0.55, or 3.125%.
|-
| Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game
| Swap out 0.73 for 0.91 in the above calculations to find Steph Curry's odds of winning. This sum yields ~3.13% .
|-
| rowspan="3"| 4%
| You sweep a 3-game {{w|rock paper scissors}} series
| Picking randomly, you have a 1 in 3 chance of beating an opponent on the first try. (1/3)3 = 1/27 ≈ 4% .
|-
| {{w|Portland, Oregon}} has a {{w|White Christmas (weather)|white Christmas}}
| According to Randall's source (from the ''Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society''), the probability of snow cover in Portland is 4%.
|-
| You share a birthday with two {{w|US Senator}}s
| At the time this comic was published, 15 days were birthdays for more than one Senator, and 15/365.25 ≈ 4%.<ref>Rand Paul and John Thune - January 7 
Chris Van Hollen and Roy Blunt - January 10 
Tina Smith and James Lankford - March 4 
Tammy Duckworth and Mitt Romney - March 12 
Angus King and Patrick Leahy - March 31 
Jim Risch and Ron Wyden - May 3 
Dianne Feinstein and Elizabeth Warren - June 22 
Todd Young and Joe Manchin - August 24 
Kamala Harris, Brian Schatz, and Sheldon Whitehouse - October 20 
Jeff Merkley and Mike Rounds - October 24 
Jim Inhofe and Pat Toomey - November 17 
Dick Durbin and John Kennedy - November 21 
Rick Scott and Gary Peters - December 1 
John Boozman and David Perdue - December 10 

Based on [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_senators List of current US Senators on Wikipedia] (and processed through [https://bit.ly/2HZeqQs this Google sheet)].
</ref>
|-
| rowspan="2"| 5%
| An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins
| Entering Q2, 0:00, and -20 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 5.2% or 5.3% .
|-
| You roll a natural 20
| A natural 20 indicates a critical hit in the {{w|Dungeons & Dragons}} role playing game. "Natural" means that it is the number showing when rolling a d20 (a 20-sided die), as opposed to an overall total of 20 when counting the die roll plus modifiers. There are twenty sides to a d20 die. 1/20 = 0.05 = 5%
|-
| 6%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries
| Picking a random card within 3 times gives 1 - (51/52)(50/51)(49/50) ≈ 6% .
|-
| 7%
| LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both
| James' career FT percentage is 73%, so the probability of a miss is 27%. The probability of 2 misses is (27%)2, which is about 7%.
|-
| 8%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries
| Assuming you guess four different cards, 4/52 = 0.0769 ≈ 8% .
|-
| 9%
| Steph Curry misses a free throw
| Curry's career free throw percentage is 91%, so the probability of a miss is 9%.
|-
| rowspan="2"|10%
| You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), and the Ace of Spades is one of them. The chances of getting the card is 1 - 51/52 * 50/51 * 49/50 * 48/49 * 47/48 which is approximately 0.096, which rounds to the given 10%. 
|-
| There's a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8+ earthquake in the next month
| Note that, unlike other earthquake examples, this does not specify where the earthquake occurs.
|-
| 11%
| You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series
| You have a 1/3 chance of winning the first comparison, and a 1/3 chance of winning the second. (1/3) * (1/3) = 1/9 ~ 0.11 = 11% .
|-
| rowspan="3"|12%
| A randomly-chosen American lives in {{w|California}}
| California is the most populous state in the US. Out of the approximately 328.2 million Americans (as of 2019), 39.51 million live in California. This means that a randomly chosen American has about a 39.51/328.2 ≈ 10.33% chance of living in California. Due to population change and rounding based on different sources, this could be pushed to 12%.
|-
| You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries
| Assuming you don't repeat previous wrong guesses, the probability is 6/52 ≈ 11.54%.
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|US President}}
| Presidents {{w|James Polk}} and {{w|Warren Harding}} share a birthday, and are the only presidents so far (in 2020) to do so. Additionally, {{w|Grover Cleveland}} served two non-consecutive terms and is counted twice (as the 22nd and 24th presidents). He therefore shares a birthday with himself. With 43 distinct birthdays, the odds of sharing a birthday are 43/365 ≈ 12%. (This does not consider February 29 or that more births occur on some days than others.)
|-
| rowspan="3"|13%
| A {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d6}} beats a {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d20}}
| The odds of a d6 beating a d20 are (0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5)/(6*20) = 0.125 ≈ 13% .
|-
| An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
| Entering Q3, 0:00, and -10 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 12.6% or 12.8% .
|-
| You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 .
|-
| 14%
| A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a D6 die roll
| {{w|Scrabble}} is a game in which you place lettered tiles to form words. Most of the scores per letter are 1, making it rare to beat a d6. The odds are (70/100)(0) + (7/100)(1/6) + (8/100)(2/6) + (10/100)(3/6) + (1/100)(4/6) + (4/100)(6/6) ≈ 14%.
|-
| 15%
| You roll a D20 and get at least 18
| The set of "at least 18" on a d20 is 18, 19, and 20. The odds of rolling one of these is 3/20 = 15% .
|-
| 16%
| Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one
| Steph Curry's FT percentage is 91%, so (0.91)(0.09) = 8.19% . However, the order of these is irrelevant, so the total odds are 16.38% .
|-
| 17%
| You roll a D6 die and get a 6
| The odds are 1/6 ≈ 17% .
|-
| 18%
| A D6 beats or ties a D20
| The odds are (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6)/(120) = 17.5% .
|-
| 19%
| At least one person in a random pair is left-handed
| The chances of being left handed is about 10%, so the probability of both people in the pair not being left-handed is 0.92=0.81, and 1-0.81=0.19.
|-
| 20%
| You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of browns is either 0.124 or 0.125 . (1 - 0.125)^12 ≈ 20.1%; (1 - 0.124)^12 ≈ 20.4% .
|-
| 21%
| {{w|St. Louis}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in St. Louis is 21%.
|-
| 22%
| An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime
| Entering Q2, 0:00, and -10 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 22.3% or 22.5% .
|-
| rowspan="2"| 23%
| You get an M&M and it's blue
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of blues is either 0.207 or 0.25 .
|-
| You share a birthday with a US senator
| There are 100 Senators, but 31 Senators share 15 birthdays and 69 Senators have unique birthdays, so there are a total of 84 days of the year that are the birthday of a Senator.
|-
| 24%
| You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter
| The winter lasts ~24% of the year, so ~24% of birthdays are in the winter.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 25%
| You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall
| The fall lasts ~25% of the year, so ~25% of birthdays are in the fall. This statement would also have been true for spring.
|-
| You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.
| An M&M can land on one of two sides, one with an M and one without. The odds of "rolling" two Ms is 1/4 = 25%. The term "rolling" is used jokingly in reference to the d6s and d20s above, suggesting that an M&M is a standard d2; this becomes especially true once you consider that a more accurate reference would have been to a coin, not a die.
|-
| 26%
| You correctly guess someone was born in the summer
| The summer lasts ~26% of the year, so ~26% of birthdays are in the summer.
|-
| 27%
| LeBron James misses a free throw
| James' career FT percentage is 73%, so the probability of missing is 27%.
|-
| 32%
| {{w|Pittsburgh}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in Pittsburgh is 32%.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 33%
| A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title
| Episodes II (Attack of the Clones), III (Revenge of the Sith), and VI (Return of the Jedi) are the movies. This gives the odds of 3/9 ≈ 33% .
|-
| You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch
| The {{w|Monty Hall problem}} is a counterintuitive logic problem, in which you pick one of three doors at random. One of the doors has a car behind it, so the odds that you picked the door are 1/3 ≈ 33%. Thus, by not switching doors, your odds remain the same. The Monty Hall problem has previously appeared in [[1282: Monty Hall]] and [[1492: Dress Color]].
|-
| You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly
| The odds of beating an opponent on the first try by picking randomly is 1/3 ≈ 33% .
|-
| 34%
| You draw five cards and get an ace
| The odds are 1 - (48/52)(47/51)(46/50)(45/49)(44/48) ≈ 34% .
|-
| 35%
| A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in "random"
| The odds of drawing a letter in "random" are (6 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 8 + 2)/100 = 35% .
|-
| 39%
| LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one
| LeBron James' FT percentage is 73% , so the odds are (0.73)(0.27) = 19.71% . However, the order is irrelevant, so the odds are actually twice, or 39.42% .
|-
| 40%
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Steph Curry"
| The odds of drawing a letter in "Steph Curry" are (4 + 6 + 12 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 4 + 6 + 2)/100 = 40% .
|-
| 46%
| There's a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years
|
|-
| rowspan="2"|48%
| {{w|Milwaukee}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in Milwaukee is 48%.
|-
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen
| The odds of a Scrabble tile being in her name are (2 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 2 + 12 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 6)/100 = 48% .
|-
| 50%
| You get heads in a coin toss
| There are two options in a coin toss, heads or tails, so the odds of getting heads is 50% (1/2).
|-
| 53%
| {{w|Salt Lake City}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in Salt Lake City is 53%.
|-
| 54%
| LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both
| James' career FT percentage is 73%, so the probability of making 2 FT is (73%)2 = 53.9%.
|-
| 58%
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Nate Silver"
| {{w|Nate Silver}} is a recurring person on xkcd. The odds of a Scrabble tile being in his name are (6 + 9 + 6 + 12 + 4 + 9 + 4 + 2 + 6)/100 = 58% .
|-
| 60%
| You get two M&Ms and neither is blue
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of blues is either 0.207 or 0.25 . (1 - 0.207)^2 ≈ 62.9%; (1 - 0.25)^2 ≈ 56.3%.
|-
| 65%
| {{w|Burlington, Vermont}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in Burlington is 65%.
|-
| 66%
| A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice
| The titles are:
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Fellowship '''of the''' Ring''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Two Towers''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Return '''of the''' King''
All of them have “of the” at least once, in “The Lord of the Rings”, but only the first and third have it twice, and 2/3 ≈ 66%. This number typically rounds up to 67% , however, and it is unclear why it is not, given that the same reduced fraction is written in the 67% category below.
|-
| 67%
| You roll at least a 3 with a d6
| The set of "at least 3" on a d6 refers to 3, 4, 5, and 6. The odds are 4/6 ≈ 67%.
|-
| 71%
| A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll
| This is a typo, as the correct probability is at the 14% entry. A random (d6) die roll beats a random Scrabble tile 71% of the time. [[Randall]] probably meant to write '''A random d6 dice roll''' beats '''a random Scrabble tile'''.
|-
| 73%
| LeBron James makes a free throw
| This is James' career FT percentage, 73%.
|-
| 75%
| You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the "M" up so it's clear they're not Skittles
| The odds of at least one 'M' showing up is 1 - (1/4) = 75% . The reference to {{w|Skittles}} is that the two candies look similar to one another, and Randall has probably bit into a Skittle thinking it was an M&M, or vice versa. This trick might prevent that from happening in the future.
|-
| 76%
| You get two M&Ms and neither is red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 . (1 - 0.131)^2 ≈ 75.5%; (1 - .125)^2 ≈ 76.6%.
|-
| 77%
| You get an an M&M and it's not blue
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of blues is either 0.207 or 0.25 . (1 - 0.207) = 79.3%; (1 - 0.25) = 75.0%.
|-
| 78%
| An NBA team wins when they're up 10 at halftime
| Entering Q2, 0:00, and 10 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 77.5% or 77.7% .
|-
| 79%
| St. Louis doesn't have a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in St. Louis is 21%, thus the probability of ''no'' snow cover is 79%.
|-
| 81%
| Two random people are both right-handed
| The probability of 1 person being right-handed is about 90%, thus the probability of 2 right-handers is (90%)2 = 81%.
|-
| 83%
| Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both
| Curry's career FT percentage is 91%, so the probability of making 2 FTs is (91%)2 = 82.81%.
|-
| 85%
| You roll a d20 and get at least a 4
| The set "at least 4" on a d20 refers to 4, 5, 6... 18, 19, 20. The odds of this are 17/20 = 85% .
|-
| rowspan="2"| 87%
| An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
| Entering Q3, 0:00, and 10 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 87.2% or 87.4% .
|-
| Someone fails to guess your card given 7 tries
|Assuming they guess seven different cards, there are 45 unguessed cards left. 45/52 = 0.865384615 ~ 86.5%
|-
| 88%
| A randomly chosen American lives outside California
| This is the opposite of the previous California probability. As the probability of an American living in California is 12%, the opposite would be 88%.
|-
| 89%
| You roll a 3 or higher given two tries
| The probability of rolling a 3 or higher (on a 6-sided die) is 66%, so the percentage of rolling a 3 or higher given 2 tries is 1 - (1-.66)2 = 89%.
|-
| 90%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries
| Assuming they guess five different cards, there are 47 unguessed cards left. 47/52 = 0.90385 ~ 90%
|-
| rowspan="2"| 91%
| You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August
| If the odds of someone being born in August are ~9% , then the odds that a person was not born in August are ~91%. (In an average month, 8 1/3% of the population was born. August has an above average number of days, but still only about 8.5% of the year is in August.)
|-
| Steph Curry makes a free throw
| This is Curry's career FT percentage, 91%.
|-
| 92%
| You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong
| On average, a month lasts 8⅓% of the year. Thus, if you were to guess someone's birth month at random, you would be wrong 91 ⅔% of the time.
|-
| 93%
| Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries
| James' career FT percentage is 73%, so the percentage of his making at least 1 FT given 2 tries is 1 - (1-.73)2 = 93%.
|-
| 94%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries
| The odds of this happening are (51/52)(50/51)(49/50) ≈ 94% .
|-
| 95%
| An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime
| Entering Q2, 0:00, and 20 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 94.7% or 94.8% .
|-
| 96%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries
| The odds of this happening are (51/52)(50/51) ≈ 96% .
|-
| 97%
| You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail
| The odds of this happening are 1 - (1/2)5 ≈ 97% .
|-
| 98%
| You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week
| The odds of this happening are about 51/52 ≈ 98%. (This depends on the week; there are more births in early October and fewer in holiday weeks.)
|-
| 98.5%
| An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins
| Entering Q4, 8:00, and 15 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 98.0% or 98.6% .
|-
| 99%
| Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries
| James' career FT percentage is 91%, so the percentage of his making at least 1 FT given 2 tries is 1 - (1-.91)2 = 99%.
|-
| 99.5%
| An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins
| Entering Q2, 0:00, and 30 into the NBA Win Probability Calculator yields 99.4% .
|-
| 99.7%
| You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong
| The odds of this are 364/365 ≈ 99.7%.
|-
| 99.8%
| There's not a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 quake in {{w|California}} next year
|
|-
| 99.9%
| A random group of three people contains a right-hander
| About 90% of people are right-handed, so the percentage of at least 1 right-hander in a group of 3 is 1 - (1-.9)3 = 99.9%.
|-
| 99.99%
| You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number
| There are 10 digits in a Social Security Number, but the last four are commonly used as an identity verification factor. The odds of this are 1 - (1/10)4 = 99.99% .
|-
| 99.9999999999999995%
| You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 earthquake in {{w|California}}!" and are wrong
| This probability combines two events.

First, the probability that a random 10-digit telephone number belongs to Obama is 1/1010. This ignores potential complications from Obama owning multiple phones or failing to answer personally (perhaps using an assistant or answering machine). Additionally, it assumes numbers are dialed at random rather than making more intelligent guesses like using likely addresses to guess area codes.

Second, the probability of a magnitude 8 California quake is given in a previous entry as 0.2% per year. Although the time window for an earthquake to "just occur" is not given, a 15 minute window corresponds (within rounding error) to the total probability given.
|-
| 0.00000001%
| You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up
| Carly Rae Jepsen is a Canadian singer. As Canada uses the 10-digit {{w|North American Numbering Plan}}, the odds of a random number being hers would be 1 - (1/10)10 = 0.00000001%. Like Obama, this ignores the possibility that she has multiple phones or that she doesn't answer personally.
|}

===References===
{{#tag:references}}

==Trivia==
In the original comic, "outside" in the 88% probability section is spelled incorrectly as "outide". In addition, the 39% section had "two free throw" instead of "throws".

The (seemingly unimportant) odds of LeBron James' versus Stephen Curry's free throws and names in Scrabble refer to [[2002: LeBron James and Stephen Curry]].

==Transcript==
<big>Probability Comparisons</big>

0.01% You guess the last four digits of someone's social security number on the first try

0.1% Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed

0.2% You draw 2 random Scrabble tiles and get M and M

You draw 3 random M&Ms and they're all red

0.3% You guess someone's birthday in one try.

0.5% An NBA team down by 30 at halftime wins

You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow

1% Steph Curry gets two free throws and misses both

LeBron James guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses

1.5% You get two M&Ms and they're both red

You share a birthday with a Backstreet Boy

2% You guess someone's card on the first try

3% You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right

Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game

4% You sweep a 3-game rock paper scissors series

Portland, Oregon has a white Christmas

You share a birthday with two US Senators

5% An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins

You roll a natural 20

6% You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries

7% LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both

8% You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries

9% Steph Curry misses a free throw

10% You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades

There's a magnitude 8+ earthquake in the next month

11% You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series

12% A randomly-chosen American lives in California

You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries

You share a birthday with a US President

13% A d6 beats a d20

An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins

You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red

14% A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a d6 die roll

15% You roll a d20 and get at least 18

16% Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one

17% You roll a d6 die and get a 6

18% A d6 beats or ties a d20

19% At least one person in a random pair is left-handed

20% You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown

21% St. Louis has a white Christmas

22% An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime

23% You get an M&M and it's blue

You share a birthday with a US senator

24% You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter

25% You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall

You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.

26% You correctly guess someone was born in the summer

27% LeBron James misses a free throw

32% Pittsburgh has a white Christmas

33% A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title

You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch

You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly

34% You draw five cards and get an ace

35% A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in "random"

39% LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one

40% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Steph Curry"

46% There's a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years

48% Milwaukee has a white Christmas

A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen

50% You get heads in a coin toss

53% Salt Lake City has a white Christmas

54% LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both

58% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Nate Silver"

60% You get two M&Ms and neither is blue

65% Burlington, Vermont has a white Christmas

66% A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice

67% You roll at least a 3 with a d6

71% A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll

73% LeBron James makes a free throw

75% You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the "M" up so it's clear they're not Skittles

76% You get two M&Ms and neither is red

77% You get an an M&M and it's not blue

78% An NBA team wins when they're up 10 at halftime

79% St. Louis doesn't have a white Christmas

81% Two random people are both right-handed

83% Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both

85% You roll a d20 and get at least a 4

87% An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4th quarter wins

Someone fails to guess your card given 7 tries

88% A randomly chosen American lives outside California

89% You roll a 3 or higher given two tries

90% Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries

91% You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August

Steph Curry makes a free throw

92% You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong

93% Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries

94% Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries

95% An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime

96% Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries

97% You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail

98% You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week

98.5% An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins

99% Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries

99.5% An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins

99.7% You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong

99.8% There's not a magnitude 8 quake in California next year

99.9% A random group of three people contains a right-hander

99.99% You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number

99.9999999999999995% You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a magnitude 8 earthquake in California!" and are wrong

0.00000001% You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up

Sources: https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/

{{comic discussion}}
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