explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:657: Movie Narrative Charts

2024-12-10T07:18:23Z

172.69.33.173:

...but in 12 Angry Men, at two points, some of the jurors leave to -- and have conversations in -- the bathroom! {{unsigned ip|‎193.25.222.71}}

Luke went to Endor, right?[[Special:Contributions/108.162.210.172|108.162.210.172]]

Why is this not part of the explaination? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Minard.png

It is public domain so it should be allowed right? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.246.117|108.162.246.117]] 03:43, 10 March 2014 (UTC)

I added it to the explaination as it certainly adds to the understadning of the comic. It was already uploaded by someone else. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.246.117|108.162.246.117]] 03:50, 10 March 2014 (UTC)

Only flaw is that Saruman died at the wrong time. [[User:LordSamanon|LordSamanon]] ([[User talk:LordSamanon|talk]]) 02:03, 4 March 2015 (UTC)

Second flaw is that Sam is going to west, too {{unsigned ip|141.101.99.80}}

: But much later, as does Legolas together with Gimli. Both Aragorn and Arwen's deaths are also in the last book but not shown here. All these events just happen way after the main story and are thus not included in the chart. Btw., Wormtongue also only dies later, around the time Saruman actually dies (in fact, he's the one who murdered Saruman). [[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.18|108.162.229.18]] 14:32, 3 January 2021 (UTC)

Third flaw is that in 12 Angry Men, Juror 8 interacts with Juror 9 at the very end.{{unsigned ip|108.162.215.56}}

I figured it would be of interest of the people here that I have gone through the afford of making one of these as well. It took me a few hours, but I am quite proud of the final image. It's definitely not perfect, though, and I am sure it could be done much better (especially if Randall himself would do it ;)). Either way, here is a movie narrative chart for the first ''Pokémon'' film, ''Mewtwo Strikes Back'', something I grew up with and felt worked pretty well in this form: http://maplestrip.tumblr.com/image/123162717416 [[User:Maplestrip|Maplestrip]] ([[User talk:Maplestrip|talk]]) 18:58, 4 July 2015 (UTC)

I doubt that it's really worth including in the explanation or anything, but it would seem that Grant's and Sattler's lines get swapped by the first time their names are reiterated. --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.242.134|108.162.242.134]] 13:18, 14 January 2016 (UTC)

: You're right! Perhaps this could be also mentioned in a "mistakes" / trivia section, as the flaws above. --[[User:LaVe|LaVe]] ([[User talk:LaVe|talk]]) 13:59, 24 February 2017 (UTC)

For me it is SO weird that this is today's Incomplete Explanation. Yesterday on Facebook, I had a Memory that I shared this 1 year ago today (so, 1 year ago yesterday). :) - NiceGuy1 [[Special:Contributions/162.158.126.76|162.158.126.76]] 04:31, 4 January 2017 (UTC) I finally signed up! This comment is mine. [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 05:35, 9 June 2017 (UTC)

I added some transcript. I didn't manage to use different colors in the transcript, so I added the HEX-Codes directly in the text. I'm not mother-tongued so please correct if you find mistakes. --[[User:LaVe|LaVe]] ([[User talk:LaVe|talk]]) 12:30, 20 February 2017 (UTC)
:Cool with the transcript. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 18:20, 24 February 2017 (UTC)
::Hey [[User:Kynde|Kynde]], we've talked about transcripts. Someone reading the text should understand the picture; not each pixel. I've also talked to [[User:LaVe|LaVe]] and I promised that I will work on this soon. Stay tuned...--[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 19:47, 24 February 2017 (UTC)

I added to the star wars section. Not to familiar with Jurassic Park so an someone add to that and complete the transcript so this comic is complete?[[User:Dontknow|Dontknow]] ([[User talk:Dontknow|talk]]) 23:31, 2 March 2017 (UTC)

i clicked on the incomplete explanation in the spotlight link to see if i could fix it
...
some comics will not and should not ever be fully explained [[Special:Contributions/108.162.226.101|108.162.226.101]] 04:10, 23 March 2017 (UTC)

HOW is this still not complete, it looks pretty good to me. Just want more opinions.[[User:Dontknow|Dontknow]] ([[User talk:Dontknow|talk]]) 19:42, 12 April 2017 (UTC)

:It certainly wants a much better discussion of ''Napoleon's March'' which is hard to do without the image. I asked on the noticeboard for someone to upload it ([[Admin_requests#Minard.27s_map_for_657]])...Or I guess i could artificially up my post-count and then wait a week... [[User:JohnHawkinson|JohnHawkinson]] ([[User talk:JohnHawkinson|talk]]) 22:46, 12 April 2017 (UTC)
::The explanation of the Minard map on the linked page seems adequate. Not every piece of information needs to be in this wiki.[[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.136|108.162.245.136]] 03:19, 18 April 2017 (UTC)
:::I would disagree. Most people don't follow links. I would say that the Minard map is absolutely essential to understanding this comic. All of the images in the comic are based on the Minard map, and if you haven't seen the Minard map, you haven't understood the comic. Reasonably people can disagree on that, of course, but I think it unquestionably passes the "relevance" test that you mention ("Not every piece of information needs to be in this wiki"). An appropriate contextual explanation needs to be written. That's on my todo list after the image is working, which it is not right now. [[User:JohnHawkinson|JohnHawkinson]] ([[User talk:JohnHawkinson|talk]]) 03:40, 18 April 2017 (UTC)
::Nice work on the pic, I moved it so that the text is above the picture. It makes more sense for readers to read the text for background knowledge and then see the pic.[[User:Dontknow|Dontknow]] ([[User talk:Dontknow|talk]]) 20:11, 19 April 2017 (UTC)
:::At the risk of excessive navel-gazing, I wonder if we're better off putting it on the right with the text accompanying it on the left. Also maybe shrinking it a bit more. I dunno... [[User:JohnHawkinson|JohnHawkinson]] ([[User talk:JohnHawkinson|talk]]) 03:07, 20 April 2017 (UTC)
:::: There are many comics where there is a pic in the middle,see [[1282: Monty Hall]] just need a little more opinion. [[User:Dontknow|Dontknow]] ([[User talk:Dontknow|talk]]) 23:10, 20 April 2017 (UTC)

I am not sure if this should be included, but it is a nice piece of trivia anyway: Randall seems to have inspired a whole field of research in digital humanities with this strip. There are now multiple papers on "storyline visualizations" that reference this comic, using the concept for visualizations of storylines, politic events and other stuff. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-50106-2_30 {{unsigned|162.158.88.128|11:06, 20 October 2017 }}

It is a fascinating concept. Not gonna lie, I could 100% spend the rest of my life making these charts. --- someone who's not smart enough to type all those brackets

3009: Number Shortage

2024-11-21T22:48:32Z

172.69.33.173: Miss Lenhart > Blondie

{{comic
| number = 3009
| date = November 8, 2024
| title = Number Shortage
| image = number_shortage_2x.png
| imagesize = 284x269px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = "10 minutes ago we were down to only 2 0s!" "How many do we have now?" "I ... don't know!!"
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT WITH 11 0S AND 100 1S. NO, WAIT... - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic presents a situation where the ability to use numbers is a limited resource. Even quantifying how many numbers are left uses up some of those numbers when stating the results.

In real life, being able to write or say digits is not a limited resource.{{cn}} However, the comic does parallel many {{w|Math Blaster Episode I: In Search of Spot|educational video games}} for young children where numbers and mathematical concepts are treated as living people or factory goods, in order to give some sort of story or context to the math-related activities. In addition, the plight faced by the shortage resembles the {{w|look-and-say sequence}} where trying to quantify the list changes it, requiring it to be quantified again (which changes it again, and so on).

The comic conflates numbers with decimal digits. So when [[Blondie]] says "15 2s and 12 3s", that uses up two 2s (one in "2s" and one in "12") and one 3 (in "3s"). She adjusts the counts as she's speaking, so when she says "13 2s", that uses up another 3, leaving only 10 3s as she's completing the sentence.

In the title text, she uses the last two 0s when saying that they had two 0s left, so now they have no more 0s. But she can't use the number 0 to describe this situation because they're now out of them.

Blondie could have taken a different approach by saying "14 2s and 11 3s", which would be accurate once it has been said.

Jokes with a similar theme been made about letters, such as shortages of vowels (and later consonants) in {{w|The Onion}}'s [https://web.archive.org/web/20020124120633/www.theonion.com/onion2816/vowels2816.html "Clinton Deploys Vowels to Bosnia"].

===Continuation===

A continuation of the pattern would go:

* "We have only 15 2s and 12 3s left."
* "No, wait, 13 2s and 10 3s."
* "No, wait, 12 2s and 9 3s."
* "No, wait, 10 2s and 8 3s."
* "No, wait, 9 2s and 7 3s."
* "No, wait, 8 2s and 6 3s."
* "No, wait, 7 2s and 5 3s."
* "No, wait, 6 2s and 4 3s."
* "No, wait, 5 2s and 3 3s."
* "No, wait, 4 2s and 1 3."
* "No, wait..."
* "How many more do we have?"
* "I...don't know..."

At that point, having used up the last 3 at the end of the previous line, Blondie would lack the necessary 3s to articulate that there are "3 2s and 0 3s."

==Transcript==
:[Blondie is standing on the left, facing Cueball and Megan on the right.]
:Blondie: The Math Department number shortage is getting worse. We have only 15 2s and 12 3s left.
:Blondie: No, wait, 13 2s and 10 3s.
:Blondie: No, wait...

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Blondie]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Comics with lowercase text]]

3009: Number Shortage

2024-11-21T22:47:08Z

172.69.33.173: Miss Lenheart > Blondie

{{comic
| number = 3009
| date = November 8, 2024
| title = Number Shortage
| image = number_shortage_2x.png
| imagesize = 284x269px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = "10 minutes ago we were down to only 2 0s!" "How many do we have now?" "I ... don't know!!"
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT WITH 11 0S AND 100 1S. NO, WAIT... - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic presents a situation where the ability to use numbers is a limited resource. Even quantifying how many numbers are left uses up some of those numbers when stating the results.

In real life, being able to write or say digits is not a limited resource.{{cn}} However, the comic does parallel many {{w|Math Blaster Episode I: In Search of Spot|educational video games}} for young children where numbers and mathematical concepts are treated as living people or factory goods, in order to give some sort of story or context to the math-related activities. In addition, the plight faced by the shortage resembles the {{w|look-and-say sequence}} where trying to quantify the list changes it, requiring it to be quantified again (which changes it again, and so on).

The comic conflates numbers with decimal digits. So when [[Blondie]] says "15 2s and 12 3s", that uses up two 2s (one in "2s" and one in "12") and one 3 (in "3s"). She adjusts the counts as she's speaking, so when she says "13 2s", that uses up another 3, leaving only 10 3s as she's completing the sentence.

In the title text, she uses the last two 0s when saying that they had two 0s left, so now they have no more 0s. But she can't use the number 0 to describe this situation because they're now out of them.

Blondie could have taken a different approach by saying "14 2s and 11 3s", which would be accurate once it has been said.

Jokes with a similar theme been made about letters, such as shortages of vowels (and later consonants) in {{w|The Onion}}'s [https://web.archive.org/web/20020124120633/www.theonion.com/onion2816/vowels2816.html "Clinton Deploys Vowels to Bosnia"].

===Continuation===

A continuation of the pattern would go:

* "We have only 15 2s and 12 3s left."
* "No, wait, 13 2s and 10 3s."
* "No, wait, 12 2s and 9 3s."
* "No, wait, 10 2s and 8 3s."
* "No, wait, 9 2s and 7 3s."
* "No, wait, 8 2s and 6 3s."
* "No, wait, 7 2s and 5 3s."
* "No, wait, 6 2s and 4 3s."
* "No, wait, 5 2s and 3 3s."
* "No, wait, 4 2s and 1 3."
* "No, wait..."
* "How many more do we have?"
* "I...don't know..."

At that point, having used up the last 3 at the end of the previous line, Miss Lenhart would lack the necessary 3s to articulate that there are "3 2s and 0 3s."

==Transcript==
:[Miss Lenhart is standing on the left, facing Cueball and Megan on the right.]
:Miss Lenhart: The Math Department number shortage is getting worse. We have only 15 2s and 12 3s left.
:Miss Lenhart: No, wait, 13 2s and 10 3s.
:Miss Lenhart: No, wait...

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Miss Lenhart]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Comics with lowercase text]]

2687: Division Notation

2022-10-21T09:50:07Z

172.69.33.173: /* Explanation */ we dont need your commentary noting randles previous opinions of various fields

{{comic
| number = 2687
| date = October 19, 2022
| title = Division Notation
| image = division_notation_new_2x.png
| imagesize = 235x310px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Science tip: Scientists hardly ever use the two-dot division sign, and when they do it often doesn't even mean division, but they still get REALLY mad when you repurpose it to write stuff like SALE! ALL SHOES 30÷ OFF!
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a GROUP OF SCHOOLCHILDREN DIVIDED AMONGST THEMSELVES. It could be nice to present a complete example definition of division using the same phrasing as in the “oh no, run” example, and then maybe hide it from the reader behind a spoiler tag. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic pokes fun at some of the ways to write the {{w|Division (mathematics)|division}} operation in math. In this comic, [[Randall]] has used A as the dividend (the number being divided) and B as the divisor (the number that A is divided by). Division is the fourth simplest arithmetic operation in mathematics, after addition, subtraction, and multiplication.[https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/principia-mathematica/#PartIVRelaArit]

The first two of the seven notations shown are the {{w|division sign}} (÷) and the {{w|long division}} notation used for {{w|short division}} and {{w|long division}} in beginning arithmetic. (Note: division typography is only used in some countries, and there are [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_division#Notation_in_non-English-speaking_countries different notations in the non-English speaking world]). These methods of division are often used by school children because the ÷ sign is what most people use when first learning division, and the short division format is usually the first algorithm learned for dividing arbitrary dividends, typically starting with the easier abbreviated short division form.

The expression on the third line, A/B, is the way division is usually written in software code. The four simple arithmetic operations in programming usually are +, -, *, /. This line was not in the [[media:division_notation_2x.png|first version]] of the comic. This is most commonly seen in regular mathematics as it somewhat saves space, and is easy to type with the slash key. Additionally, it uses standard {{w|ASCII}} characters instead of sophisticated notation. A notable exception is {{w|APL_(programming_language)|APL}}, which uses an idiosyncratic character set modeled after traditional arithmetic.

The expression on the fourth line, A/B, is how division is usually written by hand. It is nearly identical to the fraction notation that follows, but the diagonal line allows each number to be bigger while still fitting into a single line of text. The third line's representation is the best approximation of this line's notation on a computer, without using more obscure Unicode characters. The Unicode character set can be used to accurately represent division as on the fourth line in plain text, using a small set of precomposed fractions (⅔, ⅕, etc.), regular numerals and [https://unicode-explorer.com/c/2044 U+2044 FRACTION SLASH] (e.g. 22⁄7, provided font support exists), or superscript and subscript numerals (e.g. ²²/₇, or ²²⁄₇ with the fraction slash). Using any of these requires a greater knowledge of Unicode, and the know-how (and, possibly, patience) to type them, so it is likely that only a Unicode enthusiast would type division like this. You could also use HTML, like this: 22/7.

The fifth notation is the way division is written in science and intermediate and higher mathematics: <table style="display: inline-table; line-height: 0.75em; vertical-align: middle; font-size:10pt; text-size-adjust: none;"><tr><td>A</td></tr><tr><td>B</td></tr></table>, i.e. the dividend on the top of the expression, over the divisor on the bottom with a horizontal line separating them. This is how a {{w|Fraction|fraction}} would be written. It has the advantage of clearly separating the numerator and denominator when they are longer expressions, such as polynomials, without needing to add parentheses. This format is mostly used in written and professionally typeset math, as it can't be typed without something like {{w|MathML}}, {{w|LaTeX}} or HTML tables.

The sixth, "fancy," notation uses a negative exponent. The exponent -1 is equivalent to {{w|Multiplicative inverse|reciprocation}}. It can be used to keep an entire division expression on one line. Note that AB-1 is equal to A/B only if A and B are in a commutative ring (and B has an inverse). If A and B are, for example, matrices, AB-1 is not the same in general as B-1A (and the notation A/B is never used in this case as it would be ambiguous). The AB-1 format is also often used to express physical units.

The final form of notation declares a function. The writer defines a new function, F, that takes in the parameters A and B, before listing out the function's definition (trailing off in increasingly smaller text). Defining things as functions is very normal for mathematics, but likely not very efficient at all to commonly do for the simple operation of division. Occasionally a highly formalized definition such as this could be a setup for an elaborate and extensive proof, hence Randall warns the reader they should escape while they still can. Integer division can be defined in terms of multiplicative inequalities and the remainder, or modulo ('%' in most programming languages) operator. This situation is likely to occur in many sorts of algebra, where one might have to define what "division" means for two elements of a mathematical object such as a group, ring, or magma. One example would be an object G, such that, for two elements A and B of G, "A divided by B" is defined as an element C such that CB=A, or alternatively as an element C such that BC=A. These definitions will differ if multiplication in G is not commutative. Furthermore, if such a C is not unique, the function F(A,B) will need to include a method to select a unique value for "A divided by B" for each A and B. Thus, the F(A,B) in the comic might not even refer to a uniquely defined operation, but simply to the property of a function F(A,B) that is a valid division operation on G, given some definition of division. You were warned.

The title text discusses how the division sign (÷) has fallen out of favor in most professional contexts (the ISO-80000 guidelines even specify the symbol "should not be used") yet has resisted all efforts to repurpose it as a new function. Specifically, it pokes fun at how similar the division sign is to a {{w|percent sign}} (%). A scientist might be really mad at the use of the division sign as an alternative to a percent sign because it is the wrong symbol in that context.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript| Really should have descriptions instead of 'span styles'... Consider giving it descriptive labels instead (or at least as well as)... Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:Division notation

:<table style="display: inline-table; line-height: 1em; vertical-align: middle; font-size:10pt; text-size-adjust: none;"><tr><td>A÷B</td></tr><tr><td>B⟌A</td></tr></table>} Schoolchild
:A/B Software engineer
:A⁄B Normal person or Unicode enthusiast
:<table style="display: inline-table; line-height: 0.8em; vertical-align: middle; font-size:10pt; text-size-adjust: none;"><tr><td>A</td></tr><tr><td>B</td></tr></table> Scientist
:AB-1 Fancy scientist
:F(A, B) such that F(G)= (text getting smaller) Oh no, run

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Science]]
[[Category:Programming]]
[[Category:Science tip]]

953: 1 to 10

2022-10-20T00:40:30Z

172.69.33.173: /* Transcript */ ce

{{comic
| number = 953
| date = September 19, 2011
| title = 1 to 10
| image = 1 to 10.png
| titletext = If you get an 11/100 on a CS test, but you claim it should be counted as a 'C', they'll probably decide you deserve the upgrade.
}}

==Explanation==
The {{w|Binary number|binary numeral system}} refers to a counting system in base-2, which uses only the digits 0 and 1, as opposed to the more familiar base-10 decimal system, which uses the digits 0 through 9. In this case, the scale of 1 to 10 is using binary, so in decimal it would be a scale of 1 to 2. Since 4 in binary is "100" it doesn't fit into the range "1" to "10" in a binary system. And [[Megan]] doesn't even know the number "4" because she's only working on the binary system, this character does not exist for her.

It is also possible that Megan is using base-3 or base-4, both of which don't have a 4 (base-3 counts 1, 2, 10, etc., and base 4 counts 1, 2, 3, 10 etc.)

It should be noted that if Megan is indeed speaking out loud in such a way that confuses Cueball, she would be saying "ten" out loud; this would automatically indicate she is indeed using base-10 (or higher). The correct pronunciation of "10" in base-2 is "one zero".

The title text uses a similar joke. Since test scores are usually written as either a letter grade or a percentage, 11 correct questions out of 100 would be a failing score in decimal notation. However, 11/100 in binary translates to 3/4 in decimal, which would be 75%, accepted in most classes as a 'C' grade.

It could also be argued that a score of 11 should count as a "B", as 11 is B in hexadecimal, however this link is a bit more tenuous, as the whole score would then be interpreted as "B/256".

==Transcript==
:Megan: On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is it that this question is using binary?
:Cueball: ...4?
:Megan: What's a 4?

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Math]]

2372: Dialect Quiz

2022-10-02T23:12:46Z

172.69.33.173: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2372
| date = October 14, 2020
| title = Dialect Quiz
| image = dialect_quiz.png
| titletext = Do you make a distinction between shallots, scallops, and scallions? If you use all three words, do they all have different meanings, all the same, or are two the same and one different?
}}

==Explanation==
This comic is a parody of online quizzes that offer to compare the user's dialect of American English with others around the country. These quizzes generally contain questions about word usage, names for certain objects, and pronunciations that vary between different regions of the US. There are also quizzes about broader English dialects, but this comic focuses on commonly cited differences between American dialects.

The earliest quiz of this type to be widely disseminated online was the [http://dialect.redlog.net/ Harvard Dialect Survey], conducted in the early 2000s by Bert Vaux and Scott Golder. The survey created maps of the distribution of various word usage (such as pop/soda/coke for a fizzy softdrink) and was a relatively early example of widely shared Internet "viral" content. In 2013, Josh Katz of the New York Times created [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/dialect-quiz-map.html a new version] based on the Harvard survey, which became the Times' [https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/01/-em-the-new-york-times-em-most-popular-story-of-2013-was-not-an-article/283167/ most popular content of 2013] and spread the idea to many more people. Many of the questions in this comic directly derive from entries in those surveys.

Randall's previous two comics have been about election predictions, leading up to the 2020 US General Presidential Election. A prominent predictor of the election results is Nate Silver, who runs the FiveThirtyEight website. [https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315348221565206530 @NateSilver538 posted his results] of taking the New York Times version of the survey on October 11, 2020... just three days before this comic was posted. [[2371: Election Screen Time]] specifically suggests that Randall may be spending too much time obsessing over new posts and content from the election predictors. It's coincidental, but likely, that Nate Silver's tweet inspired Randall's post: he was reminded of the 2013 feature from the Times.

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
! # !! Question !! Answers !! Explanation
|-
! 1
|How do you address a group of two or more people?
|style="width: 15%;"|
* A) You
* B) Y'all
* C) I have not been around two or more people for so long that I can't remember
| Reference to the first question of the Times quiz: "How would you address {{w|You#Informal_plural_forms|a group of two or more people}}?" (with options including "you all", "you guys", "y'all", etc.). Option C may reference the significant decrease in human interaction and social contact during the COVID-19 pandemic. Alternatively, it may suggest that some xkcd readers are particularly introverted.
|-
! 2
| How do you pronounce "Penelope"?
|
* A) Rhymes with "Antelope"
* B) Rhymes with "Develop"
| Both the options for this are wrong, making it the first of many quiz questions to be impossible to answer correctly.

Neither Option A's "PEN-e-lohp" /ˈpɛːnəˌloʊp/ (possibly "PEEN-e-lohp" /ˈpiːnɪˌloʊp/) nor Option B's "pe-NELL-up" /pɪˈnɛləp/ are a typical pronunciation of this name (beyond mispronunciations). In English, the only correct way to pronounce this name is "pe-NELL-o-pee" /pəˈnɛləpi/, which is not listed. (A) is the answer Juan from Club Dread (2004) would have given, and the way video game parody band "Random Encounters" pronounces their second cat's name. In Questionable Content, this is also the way Faye pronounces Penelope's name in comic 725. Whether this is a coincidence or deliberate is unknown.
|-
! 3
| What do you call the scientific field that studies the stars?
|
* A) Astrology
* B) Agronomy
* C) Cosmetology
| The actual answer is {{w|astronomy}}, which is not listed, though several answers ''are'' listed that sound similar to fields that study stars. {{w|Astrology}} is the pseudo-scientific "study" of the influence of the stars and planets on our lives, including horoscopes, {{w|agronomy}} ''is'' scientific but instead studies agriculture, and {{w|cosmetology}} is the study of cosmetics and makeup (with a name close to {{w|cosmology}}, a branch of astronomy, and {{w|comet}}, an astronomical object). The last may also be referring to the occasionally makeup-heavy faces of movie and television "stars".
|-
! 4
| How do you pronounce "genre"?
|
* A) Gone-ra
* B) Juh-neer
* C) Jen-er-uh
| Reference to a question found on some quizzes: "How do you pronounce ''genre''? ZHAHN-ruh, or JAHN-ruh?"

A majority of (American) English speakers pronounce "genre" as either "'''ZH'''AHN-ruh" /ˈʒɔnrə/ (beginning with the "zh" sound found in "trea'''s'''ure") or "'''J'''AHN-ruh" /ˈdʒɔnrə/ (beginning with the "j" sound in "justice"). Neither of these are listed, and none of the quiz's pronunciation options are common. However, they are close to other words: ''GONE-ra'' /ˈgɔnrə/ sounds like {{w|gonorrhea}} /ˌgɔnəˈriə/, ''juh-NEER'' /dʒəˈnɪər/ is the way the second and third syllables of ''engineer'' are pronounced, and ''JEN-er-uh'' /ˈdʒɛnərə/ is close to how ''genera'' /dʒɛˈnirə/ (the plural of {{w|genus}}) is pronounced.
|-
! 5
| You pronounce "Google" with a high-pitched yelp on the...
|
* A) First syllable
* B) Second syllable
| "Google" is not generally pronounced with a high-pitched yelp on either syllable.{{citation needed}} On the other hand, {{w|Yahoo!}}, a competitor of Google, has advertised its services with a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fm5FE0x9eY0 high-pitched yodeling jingle], with the high-pitched yelp on the second syllable (as opposed to {{w|Goofy}}'s [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-70mtXw35c iconic holler], with the high yelp on the first syllable).
|-
! 6
| What do you call the thing on the wall at school that you drink water from?
|
* A) Gutter pipe
* B) Drainpipe
| Reference to a quiz question in the Harvard and Times quizzes, "What do you call the thing from which you might drink water in a school?" Answers included "drinking fountain", "water fountain", and "bubbler". However, the question in this comic implies that school children (or at least the quiz maker) drink out of {{w|Rain gutter|gutter pipes}} or drain pipes, which are used to collect rainwater and/or {{w|sewage|should absolutely not be drunk from.}}
|-
! 7
| How do you pronounce the name for a short silent video file?
|
* A) Animated give
* B) Animated gift
| Reference to the "{{w|Gif}}" pronunciation debate, with people split between pronouncing it "gif" (with the hard-G sound in "graphics") or "jif" (with the soft-G sound in "giraffe"). Both options presented in this quiz use the hard-G sound, but neither option uses the standard pronunciation for the ending of the word, “if”.

The original authors of the standard clarified they intended it to be said as if "jif". Maybe it is entirely appropriate that their product, which lacks any audio stream, was made known to most of its end-users without a sound-guide and left everyone to spontaneously derive their own way of voicing its name.

Also a reference to [https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/gift-as-a-verb how some people dislike the use of the word "gift" as a verb, and think that "give" should be used instead].
|-
! 8
| What do you call the baseball-sized garden bugs that, when poked, glow brightly and emit a warbling scream?
|
* A) What?
* B) Lawn buddies
| There are many different varieties of common insects with distinctive traits and behaviors, some of which even have multiple names; the creatures described "lawn buddies" combine three of these traits into one peculiar and somewhat frightening bug. The fact that no known creature like this exists forms the humor of the two answers: the first is reasonably confused, and the second is alarmingly familiar.

1. The Harvard and Times quizzes actually include the question: "What do you call the {{w|Armadillidiidae|small gray bug}} that curls up into a ball when it’s touched?" (options include "roly-poly," "pill-bug", "potato bug", "doodle bug", etc.).

It is also worth mentioning that "potato bug" itself can refer to three completely different kinds of insect; besides the aforementioned "{{w|Armadillidiidae|small gray bug}}," it can also refer to the {{w|Colorado potato beetle}} or to the {{w|Jerusalem cricket}}. A dialect quiz such as this one might ask the quiz-taker to identify what kind of insect they associate the term with.

2. The {{w|Firefly|Lampyridae}} family of insects do glow (although not exactly "brightly"). These insects emit their light spontaneously, as a mating signal, though they often do emit light when shaken or presumably poked. These are variously called "fireflies," "glowworms," or "lightning bugs;" a dialect quiz might reasonably ask the quiz-taker's preferred term.

3. {{w|cicada|Cicadas}} and {{w|Madagascar_hissing_cockroach|cockroaches}} can be large for insects, though nothing approaching the size of a baseball, and can make very loud noises indeed, although it would be a bit of a stretch to describe any of their associated sounds as a "warbling scream."
|-
! 9
| What do you call the misleading lines painted by disgruntled highway workers to trick cars into driving off the road?
|
* A) Prank lines
* B) Devil's Marks
* C) Fool-me lines
* D) Fauxguides
* E) Delaware lines
| Reference to the fact that some quiz questions ask about road features, such as "verge/berm/parking strip/curb strip" and "roundabout/traffic circle/rotary". However, these particular road lines, if they have ever been made, aren't common enough to warrant different names, unless the creator of the Quiz is referring to painted lines that haven't fully faded out of existence. The Delaware Line was a formation within the Continental Army. Devil's Marks may be a takeoff of [https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Devil%27s%20Strip Devil's Strip].

Misleading lines on the road were also mentioned in [[1958: Self-Driving Issues]].
|-
! 10
| What do you call the blue-green planet in the outer Solar System?
|
* A) Uranus
* B) Neptune
| This question references the fact that Uranus and Neptune are quite similar in appearance, as well as the two common pronunciations of Uranus: "YURR-ə-nəss" and "yoo-RAY-nəss" (which sounds like the phrase "{{tvtropes|UranusIsShowing|your anus}}", a favorite joke of little kids). The original pronunciation is "oo-ra-nos", but this is not a common pronunciation among the general public. It also references the fact that Uranus and Neptune are both blue-ish colored planets in the outer solar system and are often confused by people who don't know much about them. Uranus is closer to being the correct answer - it could plausibly be described as cyan, a color intermediate between blue and green - while Neptune is a deep, unambiguous blue.
|-
! 11
| What do you call this tool?
[[File:CloveHammer.png|150px]] (image of a claw hammer)
|
* A) Banger
* B) Nail axe
* C) Wood mage wand
* D) I'm familiar with this tool but have no specific word for it
* E) I have never seen it before
| The only name most people would ever call this tool is a "hammer".

The last two options reference options in many quiz questions along the lines of "I'm familiar with this but have no specific word for it" and "I am not familiar with this" (such as on the pill-bug/roly-poly question on the real quiz). These may appear as options to questions that ask about something that might not exist everywhere, or something which many may not have a word for (for example, some areas of the United States have a name for "sunshowers," while most don't). However, it's a bit absurd for these options to be present for this question (and this question alone), as virtually all users in an English dialect test would be expected to know what a hammer is. This also serves as a bit of reverse perspective on the saying, "{{w|Law of the instrument|When the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.}}"
|-
! 12
| What do you call a long sandwich with meats and lettuce and stuff?
|
* A) A long sandwich with meats and lettuce and stuff
* B) A longwich
* C) A salad hot dog
| Reference to a common dialect quiz question: "What do you call a {{w|Submarine sandwich|long sandwich}}?" with options typically including "sub", "hoagie", "hero", etc.

The first answer directly repeats the phrasing of the prompt, painting the person who would answer that way as either very literal-minded or bearing a snarky side. The hot dog answer could refer to the common online discussion: "Is a hot dog a sandwich?, and bears resemblance to jokes playing on synonyms to discredit their need for unique names, i.e. "Beef jerky is just a meat raisin." In this case, the argument would be "A sub sandwich is just a salad hot dog."
|-
! 13
| What do you call the scaly many-legged animal often found in attics?
|
* A) Lightbulb eater
* B) I have no special name for them
* C) I've never looked in my attic
| Another reference to the frequent appearance of quiz questions asking what users call various creepy crawlies.

{{w|Millipedes}} best fit the description. They have many legs, though rarely if ever a thousand of them, as their name (from the Latin word for "thousand feet") suggests. The hard rings that separate an individual's body into segments give the animal a scaly appearance. And of the thousands of species, only a few have common names, hence "no special name for them". The reference to "lightbulb eater" is obscure, but may refer to the tendency of millipedes to congregate in large numbers in dark crevices, or perhaps Randall is simply conjuring more frightening creatures. Perhaps Randall found some in empty (no bulb) light fixtures in his attic, though it is possible this refers to another unknown frightening creature that nobody has a word for.

Normally, questions about uncommon things would include an "I've never seen one" option, like option E in the hammer question. Instead, this question has "I've never looked in my attic" as an option, implying that these creatures are present in all attics, and anyone who doesn't know them would have to have never checked their attic at all, or that they are too afraid of this creature possibly dwelling in their own attic to go look.
|-
! 14
| What do you say when someone around you sneezes?
|
* A) "What was that?"
* B) "Oh, wow."
* C) [Quietly] "Yikes."
| Reference to a question on some quizzes about which of several words/phrases you say in response to a sneeze, with usual answers including "bless you", "God bless you", and "{{w|Gesundheit}}" (from the German word for 'health').

This question may also be referencing the {{w|COVID-19 pandemic}} in answer C (and possibly answer B). Sneezing isn't a primary symptom of COVID-19, but most people are hyper-aware of possibly contracting the disease from the people around them so sneezes are treated with suspicion and it's seen as rude to sneeze openly.

It is also possible that a person who has been able to catch a sneeze-producing condition has also caught COVID-19 and, while the sneeze itself isn't ''caused'' by it, the air and various airway fluids so forcefully projected are a possible infective vector with that little extra frisson of concern, given the current situation.
|-
! Title Text
| colspan=2 | Do you make a distinction between shallots, scallops, and scallions? If you use all three words, do they all have different meanings, all the same, or are two the same and one different?
| Phrased similarly to questions like one on the Times quiz, "How do you pronounce the words Mary, merry, and marry?" Options included "all three are pronounced the same", "all three are pronounced differently," or all three combinations of two being the same and one different. Also refers to the naming confusion around {{w|scallions}} and {{w|shallots}} - also known as 'eschalots' - but with the unrelated but similar-sounding {{w|scallops}} substituted in the middle.

'Shallots', 'scallions' and 'eschalots' are names used in different dialects, for various species and cultivars of onion used in cooking, either as a small bulb (especially [[wikipedia:shallot|Allium cepa var. Aggregatum]]) or as a long green leaf (especially [[wikipedia:Allium_fistulosum|Allium fistulosum]]). In many dialects, the green leaf type is called a 'scallion' and the bulb a 'shallot'. In at least one dialect (NSW Australia) the green leaf type is called a 'shallot' and the bulb an 'eschalot'. This causes confusion in recipes posted online. The word 'shallot' is also pronounced with emphasis on either the first or second syllable, as referred to in question 5. Despite the answer options offered, there is no evidence of dialects which use all three terms, or where 'shallot' and 'scallion' are interchangeable. Many people in the US call scallions "green onions", as was joked about in [https://genius.com/Stan-freberg-christmas-dragnet-lyrics Stan Frieberg's Christmas Dragnet parody].

{{w|Scallops}} are invertebrate marine animals similar to oysters and clams, frequently harvested for food. In some regions of the UK and Australia potato {{w|fritters}} are also called 'scallops'. The word 'scallop' itself can be pronounced either as /ˈskɒləp/ or /ˈskæləp/, and its spelling has varied over time in a similar way to that of 'shallot'. However, these are difficult to confuse with shallots or scallions.
|}

==Transcript==

[Box with title at the top]
:<big>Dialect Quiz</big>
[Smaller subtitle underneath]
:Compare answers with your friends!

[Quiz is divided into two columns. Answers to questions are indicated by a letter followed by a closed parentheses, such as A). These letters are greyed out]

[Column 1:]
 
How do you address a group of two or more people?
:A) You
:B) Y'all
:C) I have not been around two or more people for so long that I can't remember

How do you pronounce "Penelope"?
:A) Rhymes with "Antelope"
:B) Rhymes with "Develop"

What do you call the scientific field that studies the stars?
:A) Astrology
:B) Agronomy
:C) Cosmetology

How do you pronounce "genre"?
:A) Gone-ra
:B) Juh-neer
:C) Jen-er-uh

You pronounce "Google" with a high-pitched yelp on the...
:A) First syllable
:B) Second syllable

What do you call the thing on the wall at school that you drink water from?
:A) Gutter pipe
:B) Drainpipe

How do you pronounce the name for a short silent video file?
:A) Animated give
:B) Animated gift

What do you call the baseball-sized garden bugs that, when poked, glow brightly and emit a warbling scream?
:A) What?
:B) Lawn buddies

[Column 2:]
 
What do you call the misleading lines painted by disgruntled highway workers to trick cars into driving off the road?
:A) Prank lines
:B) Devil's Marks
:C) Fool-me lines
:D) Fauxguides
:E) Delaware lines

What do you call the blue-green planet in the outer Solar System?
:A) Uranus
:B) Neptune

What do you call this tool?
 
[Image of a claw hammer]
:A) Banger
:B) Nail axe
:C) Wood mage wand
:D) I'm familiar with this tool but have no specific word for it
:E) I have never seen it before

What do you call a long sandwich with meats and lettuce and stuff?
:A) A long sandwich with meats and lettuce and stuff
:B) A longwich
:C) A salad hot dog

What do you call the scaly many-legged animal often found in attics?
:A) Lightbulb eater
:B) I have no special name for them
:C) I've never looked in my attic

What do you say when someone around you sneezes?
:A) "What was that?"
:B) "Oh, wow."
:C) [Quietly] "Yikes."

==Trivia==

*The xkcd Twitter account posted a [https://twitter.com/xkcd/status/1316484953480323072 series of Twitter polls] asking the questions in this comic.
**How do you address a group of two or more people?
***You (31.2%)
***Y'all (33.5%)
***'''Can’t remember anymore (35.3%)'''
**How do you pronounce “Penelope”?
***'''Rhymes with “antelope” (58.6%)'''
***Rhymes with “develop” (41.4%)
**What do you call the scientific field that studies the stars?
***Astrology (34.5%)
***Agronomy (18.5%)
***'''Cosmetology (47%)'''
**How do you pronounce "genre"?
***Gone-ra (24.7%)
***Juh-neer (18.8%)
***'''Jen-er-uh (56.5%)'''
**Do you pronounce "Google" with a high-pitched yelp on the...
***'''First syllable (63.6%)'''
***Second syllable (36.4%)
**What do you call the thing on the wall at school that you drink water from?
***Gutter pipe (32.9%)
***'''Drainpipe (67.1%)'''
**How do you pronounce the name for a short silent video file?
***Animated give (29.6%)
***'''Animated gift (70.4%)'''
**What do you call the baseball-sized garden bugs that, when poked, glow brightly and emit a warbling scream?
***What? (48.6%)
***'''Lawn buddies (51.4%)'''
**What do you call the misleading lines painted by disgruntled highway workers to trick cars into driving off the road?
***Prank/fool-me lines (14.8%)
***Devil's marks (22%)
***Fauxguides (22.5%)
***'''Delaware lines (40.6%)'''
**What do you call the blue-green planet in the outer solar system?
***'''Uranus (51.7%)'''
***Neptune (48.3%)
**What do you call this tool? 🔨
***'''Banger (29.7%)'''
***Nail axe (22%)
***Wood mage wand (29.1%)
***Don't know/not familiar (19.2%)
**What do you call a long sandwich with meats and lettuce and stuff?
***'''That description verbatim (43.1%)'''
***A longwich (33.2%)
***A salad hot dog (23.7%)
**What do you call the scaly many-legged animal often found in attics?
***Lightbulb eater (29.5%)
***Don't have a name for it (19%)
***'''Never looked in my attic (51.5%)'''
**What do you say when someone around you sneezes?
***"What was that?" (8.6%)
***"Oh, wow." (17.1%)
***'''[quietly] "Yikes." (74.3%)'''
*Shallots, scallops, and scallions ran against each other in [[1529: Bracket]]

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Language]]
[[Category:COVID-19]]

2676: Historical Dates

2022-09-24T22:38:43Z

172.69.33.173: /* Transcript */ semi related

{{comic
| number = 2676
| date = September 23, 2022
| title = Historical Dates
| image = historical_dates_2x.png
| imagesize = 305x438px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Evidence suggests the 1899 transactions occurred as part of a global event centered around a deity associated with the lotus flower.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a CONFUSED HISTORIAN BORN ON DECEMBER 30TH - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
Many files and database entries contain a date. When it is not set, it often defaults to the first day in the system. The default "creation date" of many operating systems and software is Jan 1st, 1970, which leads to a lot of files wrongly reporting that they were created on this date. This comes from dates being stored as [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unix_time Unix timestamps], which are defined as the number of seconds since Jan 1st, 1970, 0:00, so a timestamp value of 0 (the default value of otherwise undefined numbers in most systems, such as where no value at all has actually been entered into a given spreadsheet cell) equates to this date.

Dec 30th, 1899 comes from a [https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2006/06/16/my-first-billg-review/ spreadsheet date compatibility issue] between Excel and Lotus 123 (referenced in the title text.) Spreadsheets store dates as sequential serial numbers so that they can be used in calculations. In Excel, by default, January 1, 1900 is serial number 1 [https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/office/datevalue-function-df8b07d4-7761-4a93-bc33-b7471bbff252]. Based on that, Excel's integer date representation is the number of days that have passed since December 31, 1899. However, because of a bug intentionally carried over from Lotus 1-2-3 where it counts February 29, 1900 as a day even though it actually was not [https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/office/troubleshoot/excel/wrongly-assumes-1900-is-leap-year], for any day since then, Excel's integer date representation is actually the number of days that have passed since December 30, 1899. Most other spreadsheet applications copied the behaviour of Excel to maintain compatibility with it. This leads to the value of 0 in some applications (notably Open- and LibreOffice Calc and Google Spreadsheets) being interpreted as Dec 30th, 1899. Similarly, Microsoft Visual Basic and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) interpret 0.0 as Dec 30th, 1899.

The historian in the comic presents some research wrongly based only on the number of entries created on those dates. This confusion on the part of the future historian only grows in the title text, where they make the claim that Lotus 123 is, in fact, religious imagery related to some sort of deity, potentially a lotus god, around whom the '1899 event' took place. This confusion may have been at least partially due to China's {{w|White Lotus|White Lotus Religion}}.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Blondie is talking, while pointing to a hologram, representing a timeline with two dates: 1899 and 1970]
:Historical records show millions of business transactions occurred on Dec 30th, 1899.

:This economic activity sparked the digital age, culminating in a "data festival" on Jan 1st, 1970, when many early digital files were created.

:[Caption under the panel:]
:It's going to be weird when historians forget why some dates show up a lot.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Calendar]]
[[Category:Time]]
[[Category:Programming]]

2388: Viral Quiz Identity Theft

2020-11-21T00:37:54Z

172.69.33.173: /* Explanation */ remove random reddit thread, just speculative

{{comic
| number = 2388
| date = November 20, 2020
| title = Viral Quiz Identity Theft
| image = viral_quiz_identity_theft.png
| titletext = [scrolling through a giant spreadsheet of transcribed data] 'Wow, a surprising number of users grew up at 420 69th St.' 'Yeah, must be a high-rise or something.'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT WHO GREW UP AT 420 69TH STREET. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Hairy is trying to compile a list of names and addresses, for identity theft purposes. However, as White Hat points out, a lot of this information is in the {{w|public record}} making his "viral quiz" unnecessary.

Even though White Hat is correct that there are public databases with lists of legal names and addresses, lots of online interactions take place in forums where people adopt pseudonyms. A viral quiz like this one could be useful for de-anonymizing users, a process known colloquially as "doxing". There is also a suspicion that these kind of viral quizzes are used to create databases to answer password recovery questions correctly. Together with a man-in-the-middle attack on the email system used, this can lead to hackers taking over user accounts.

In the title text, it turns out that lots of users did not provide their personal information. Instead they provided fake information, which Harry naively takes as truth. The number '420' is associated with {{w|420 (cannabis culture)|the use of marijuana}} and the number '69' is used to refer to {{w|69 (sex position)|a sex position}}. White Hat could also be taking the data at its word when he replies that there must be a {{w|high-rise building}} at that address to hold so many respondents, but it is more likely that he is making a sarcastic double-entendre pun.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Hairy and White Hat are standing across from each other at a table. Each has a laptop open in front of him.]

:Hairy: Here's my plan: we start a viral quiz to trick people into posting the name of the street they lived on as a kid.
:Hairy: Then we use it to steal their identity!
:White Hat: Okay.
:White Hat: Just checking, you know voter files and mortgages and stuff are mostly public records, right?
:Hairy: Huh? What are you talking about?
:White Hat: ...Nothing. We can do your thing.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Computer security]]

2385: Final Exam

2020-11-13T23:33:22Z

172.69.33.173: /* Transcript */ ce

{{comic
| number = 2385
| date = November 13, 2020
| title = Final Exam
| image = final_exam.png
| titletext = For those of you also taking Game Theory, your grade in that class will be based on how close your grade on this exam is to 80% of the average.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a FAILING CYBERSECURITY STUDENT. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

In this comic, Ponytail appears to be administering a cybersecurity exam. However, at the beginning of the exam, she informs her students that they have all failed, despite not having taken a test yet. She then informs them that their grades are stored on the department sever, but will be submitted tomorrow. The implication here is that the true test, rather than being a traditional exam is actually whether the students can hack into the server and change their grade. This may be a jab at education security which is know to be lax, or at the very least based on antiquated hardware and software, therefore being vulnerable to assault.
In real life, students have attempted to change their grades in this manner, with some success.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[Ponytail standing in front of a whiteboard]
:Ponytail: Welcome to your final exam.
:Ponytail: The exam is now over.
:Ponytail: I'm afraid all of you failed.
:Ponytail: Your grades have been stored on our department server and will be submitted tomorrow.
:Ponytail: Class dismissed.

:[Caption below the panel]:
: Cybersecurity final exams

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Computer security]]
[[Category: Psychology]]

2385: Final Exam

2020-11-13T23:32:51Z

172.69.33.173: /* Transcript */ duplicate

{{comic
| number = 2385
| date = November 13, 2020
| title = Final Exam
| image = final_exam.png
| titletext = For those of you also taking Game Theory, your grade in that class will be based on how close your grade on this exam is to 80% of the average.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a FAILING CYBERSECURITY STUDENT. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

In this comic, Ponytail appears to be administering a cybersecurity exam. However, at the beginning of the exam, she informs her students that they have all failed, despite not having taken a test yet. She then informs them that their grades are stored on the department sever, but will be submitted tomorrow. The implication here is that the true test, rather than being a traditional exam is actually whether the students can hack into the server and change their grade. This may be a jab at education security which is know to be lax, or at the very least based on antiquated hardware and software, therefore being vulnerable to assault.
In real life, students have attempted to change their grades in this manner, with some success.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[Ponytail standing in front of a whiteboard]
:Ponytail: Welcome to your final exam.
:Ponytail: The exam is now over.
:Ponytail: I'm afraid all of you have failed.
:Ponytail: Your grades have been stored on our department server and will be submitted tomorrow.
:Ponytail: Class dismissed.

:[Caption below the panel]:
: Cybersecurity final exams

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Computer security]]
[[Category: Psychology]]

2385: Final Exam

2020-11-13T23:32:26Z

172.69.33.173: /* Transcript */ transcript

{{comic
| number = 2385
| date = November 13, 2020
| title = Final Exam
| image = final_exam.png
| titletext = For those of you also taking Game Theory, your grade in that class will be based on how close your grade on this exam is to 80% of the average.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a FAILING CYBERSECURITY STUDENT. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

In this comic, Ponytail appears to be administering a cybersecurity exam. However, at the beginning of the exam, she informs her students that they have all failed, despite not having taken a test yet. She then informs them that their grades are stored on the department sever, but will be submitted tomorrow. The implication here is that the true test, rather than being a traditional exam is actually whether the students can hack into the server and change their grade. This may be a jab at education security which is know to be lax, or at the very least based on antiquated hardware and software, therefore being vulnerable to assault.
In real life, students have attempted to change their grades in this manner, with some success.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[Ponytail standing in front of a whiteboard]
:Ponytail: Welcome to your final exam.
:Ponytail: The exam is now over.
:Ponytail: I'm afraid all of you have failed.
:Ponytail: Your grades have been stored on our department server and will be submitted tomorrow.
:Ponytail: Class dismissed.

:[Caption below the panel]:
: Cybersecurity final exams

Welcome to your final exam
the exam is now over
I'm afraid all of you failed
your grades have been stored on our department server and will be submitted tomorrow.
class dismissed

cybersecurity final exams

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Computer security]]
[[Category: Psychology]]

2385: Final Exam

2020-11-13T23:27:31Z

172.69.33.173: /* Transcript */ more

2385: Final Exam

2020-11-13T23:23:11Z

172.69.33.173: Category

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-13T02:15:48Z

172.69.33.173: fixes

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on Twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| New York (and most of the Northern states) voted for Clinton, but Madison swept the Southern states to take victory.
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from Tennessee, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
| Martin Van Buren is the first president from the state of New York.
|
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
|
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Polk lost Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York.
|
|-
|1848
| As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
| Prior to 1848, (nearly) every candidate who had won the state of Mississippi had won the election. The only exception to this was the 1824 election, which was won when John Quincy Adams was elected by Congress. In 1848, Lewis Cass won the state of Mississippi, but lost the election to Zachary Taylor.
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|Pierce is the first candidate from the Democratic Party from New England, and he won the election of 1952.
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|Buchanan was the first unmarried president.
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
| Lincoln was the tallest president, at 6'4" tall.
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parents are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, with 51%, but lost in the electoral college in a {{w|1876 United States presidential election|contested election}}, resolved by the {{w|Compromise of 1877}}.
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|Since being a state in 1850, the winner of California had won the election - until 1880 when Winfield Hancock won California, but lost the election to James Garfield.
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|James Blaine was the first major candidate with the first name "James" to lose an election, losing to Grover Cleveland.
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|Grover Cleveland was the first president since the end of the Civil War to be defeated by a challenger, losing to Benjamin Harrison. Andrew Johnson was not chosen as the Democratic candidate in 1868. Ulysses S. Grant served 2 terms and did not run for a 3rd term. Rutherford B. Hayes and Chester A. Arthur (who became president after the assassination of James Garfield) did not seek reelection after their first term.
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|Cleveland was the first (and thus far only) president to serve 2 non-consecutive terms, winning the presidential election in 1884, losing in 1888, and winning in 1892.
|
|-
|1896
|Tall Midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|At the time, McKinley was only the 3rd Republican who was reelected (behind Lincoln, and Grant). And he was the shortest of them all, at 5'7" tall.
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has been elected. ...Roosevelt was.
|At the start of his presidency, Theodore Roosevelt was the youngest president, taking office at the age of 42.
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|Taft was the first Republican to win an election and not serve in the military - Lincoln served during the Black Hawk War; Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Benjamin Harrison and McKinley served in the Civil War; and Theodore Roosevelt served in the Spanish-American War.
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
|Since its statehood in 1863, Wilson is the first Democrat to lose West Virginia, but win the national election.
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|Harding was the first sitting Senator to become President - he resigned his position as Senator to become President.
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|'''C'''alvin '''C'''oolidge was the first with "two C's in his name". Presidents with "one C" in their names prior to Coolidge were John Quin'''c'''y Adams, Andrew Ja'''c'''kson, Za'''c'''hary Taylor, Franklin Pier'''c'''e, James Bu'''c'''hanan, Abraham Lin'''c'''oln, '''C'''hester A. Arthur, Grover '''C'''leveland and William M'''c'''kinley.
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms due to his popularity/policies, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Catholics can't win. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. If Obama wins (as he did) it will break the streak.
|Barack Obama is 6' 1" (185 cm), and Mitt Romney is 6' 2" (188 cm)
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. If Romney wins (but he didn't) it will break the streak.
| Discounting third party and small nominees, these nominees won: Franklin Pierce, Franklin Roosevelt, Barack Obama
| Unbroken so far, so true
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1964... Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-13T02:11:52Z

172.69.33.173: /* Transcript */ fixes

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on Twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| New York (and most of the Northern states) voted for Clinton, but Madison swept the Southern states to take victory.
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from Tennessee, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
| Martin Van Buren is the first president from the state of New York.
|
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
|
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Polk lost Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York.
|
|-
|1848
| As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
| Prior to 1848, (nearly) every candidate who had won the state of Mississippi had won the election. The only exception to this was the 1824 election, which was won when John Quincy Adams was elected by Congress. In 1848, Lewis Cass won the state of Mississippi, but lost the election to Zachary Taylor.
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|Pierce is the first candidate from the Democratic Party from New England, and he won the election of 1952.
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|Buchanan was the first unmarried president.
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
| Lincoln was the tallest president, at 6'4" tall.
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parents are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, with 51%, but lost in the electoral college in a {{w|1876 United States presidential election|contested election}}, resolved by the {{w|Compromise of 1877}}.
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|Since being a state in 1850, the winner of California had won the election - until 1880 when Winfield Hancock won California, but lost the election to James Garfield.
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|James Blaine was the first major candidate with the first name "James" to lose an election, losing to Grover Cleveland.
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|Grover Cleveland was the first president since the end of the Civil War to be defeated by a challenger, losing to Benjamin Harrison. Andrew Johnson was not chosen as the Democratic candidate in 1868. Ulysses S. Grant served 2 terms and did not run for a 3rd term. Rutherford B. Hayes and Chester A. Arthur (who became president after the assassination of James Garfield) did not seek reelection after their first term.
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|Cleveland was the first (and thus far only) president to serve 2 non-consecutive terms, winning the presidential election in 1884, losing in 1888, and winning in 1892.
|
|-
|1896
|Tall Midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|At the time, McKinley was only the 3rd Republican who was reelected (behind Lincoln, and Grant). And he was the shortest of them all, at 5'7" tall.
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has been elected. ...Roosevelt was.
|At the start of his presidency, Theodore Roosevelt was the youngest president, taking office at the age of 42.
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|Taft was the first Republican to win an election and not serve in the military - Lincoln served during the Black Hawk War; Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Benjamin Harrison and McKinley served in the Civil War; and Theodore Roosevelt served in the Spanish-American War.
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
|Since its statehood in 1863, Wilson is the first Democrat to lose West Virginia, but win the national election.
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|Harding was the first sitting Senator to become President - he resigned his position as Senator to become President.
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|'''C'''alvin '''C'''oolidge was the first with "two C's in his name". Presidents with "one C" in their names prior to Coolidge were John Quin'''c'''y Adams, Andrew Ja'''c'''kson, Za'''c'''hary Taylor, Franklin Pier'''c'''e, James Bu'''c'''hanan, Abraham Lin'''c'''oln, '''C'''hester A. Arthur, Grover '''C'''leveland and William M'''c'''kinley.
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms due to his popularity/policies, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Catholics can't win. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. If Obama wins (as he did) it will break the streak.
|Barack Obama is 6' 1" (185 cm), and Mitt Romney is 6' 2" (188 cm)
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. If Romney wins (but he didn't) it will break the streak.
| Discounting third party and small nominees, these nominees won: Franklin Pierce, Franklin Roosevelt, Barack Obama
| Unbroken so far, so true
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-13T02:11:16Z

172.69.33.173: /* Table of Broken Precedents */ fixes

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on Twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| New York (and most of the Northern states) voted for Clinton, but Madison swept the Southern states to take victory.
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from Tennessee, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
| Martin Van Buren is the first president from the state of New York.
|
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
|
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Polk lost Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York.
|
|-
|1848
| As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
| Prior to 1848, (nearly) every candidate who had won the state of Mississippi had won the election. The only exception to this was the 1824 election, which was won when John Quincy Adams was elected by Congress. In 1848, Lewis Cass won the state of Mississippi, but lost the election to Zachary Taylor.
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|Pierce is the first candidate from the Democratic Party from New England, and he won the election of 1952.
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|Buchanan was the first unmarried president.
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
| Lincoln was the tallest president, at 6'4" tall.
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parents are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, with 51%, but lost in the electoral college in a {{w|1876 United States presidential election|contested election}}, resolved by the {{w|Compromise of 1877}}.
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|Since being a state in 1850, the winner of California had won the election - until 1880 when Winfield Hancock won California, but lost the election to James Garfield.
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|James Blaine was the first major candidate with the first name "James" to lose an election, losing to Grover Cleveland.
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|Grover Cleveland was the first president since the end of the Civil War to be defeated by a challenger, losing to Benjamin Harrison. Andrew Johnson was not chosen as the Democratic candidate in 1868. Ulysses S. Grant served 2 terms and did not run for a 3rd term. Rutherford B. Hayes and Chester A. Arthur (who became president after the assassination of James Garfield) did not seek reelection after their first term.
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|Cleveland was the first (and thus far only) president to serve 2 non-consecutive terms, winning the presidential election in 1884, losing in 1888, and winning in 1892.
|
|-
|1896
|Tall Midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|At the time, McKinley was only the 3rd Republican who was reelected (behind Lincoln, and Grant). And he was the shortest of them all, at 5'7" tall.
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has been elected. ...Roosevelt was.
|At the start of his presidency, Theodore Roosevelt was the youngest president, taking office at the age of 42.
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|Taft was the first Republican to win an election and not serve in the military - Lincoln served during the Black Hawk War; Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Benjamin Harrison and McKinley served in the Civil War; and Theodore Roosevelt served in the Spanish-American War.
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
|Since its statehood in 1863, Wilson is the first Democrat to lose West Virginia, but win the national election.
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|Harding was the first sitting Senator to become President - he resigned his position as Senator to become President.
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|'''C'''alvin '''C'''oolidge was the first with "two C's in his name". Presidents with "one C" in their names prior to Coolidge were John Quin'''c'''y Adams, Andrew Ja'''c'''kson, Za'''c'''hary Taylor, Franklin Pier'''c'''e, James Bu'''c'''hanan, Abraham Lin'''c'''oln, '''C'''hester A. Arthur, Grover '''C'''leveland and William M'''c'''kinley.
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms due to his popularity/policies, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Catholics can't win. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. If Obama wins (as he did) it will break the streak.
|Barack Obama is 6' 1" (185 cm), and Mitt Romney is 6' 2" (188 cm)
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. If Romney wins (but he didn't) it will break the streak.
| Discounting third party and small nominees, these nominees won: Franklin Pierce, Franklin Roosevelt, Barack Obama
| Unbroken so far, so true
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

2383: Electoral Precedent 2020

2020-11-13T02:11:11Z

172.69.33.173: /* Transcript */ fix

{{comic
| number = 2383
| date = November 9, 2020
| title = Electoral Precedent 2020
| image = electoral_precedent_2020-new.png
| titletext = He also broke the streak that incumbents with websites are unbeatable and Delawareans can't win, creating a new precedent: Only someone from Delaware can defeat an incumbent with a website.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an UNBEATABLE DELAWAREAN WITH A WEBSITE. Please explain how. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic is an update to [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], adding "broken precedents" for the US presidential elections in 2016 and 2020. The majority of the comic's panels are duplicates from 1122, with the exception of the 2012 panel (modified to show that Obama did in fact break the streak), the 2016 panel (added to reflect the election of Donald Trump), and the two 2020 panels.

The final two panels again show how the 'precedent' have side conditions that influenced these precedents:
* No sitting president who was impeached was even nominated for the office again... until Donald Trump. (Only two other presidents have been impeached. Bill Clinton was impeached, but he was not eligible for re-election due to term limits; before that, Andrew Johnson sought re-election but failed to be nominated at the 1868 Democratic Convention.)
* The last time a challenger beat an incumbent was in 1992 when websites weren't nearly as predominant as now, and Randall assumes the 1992 Clinton campaign did not have a website. By 1996 that had changed and both the incumbent [http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/websites/cg96/ Bill Clinton campaign] and the challenger [http://www.dolekemp96.org/main.htm Bob Dole campaign] had websites that look very simple by today's standards. There is no 'curse' on using websites. {{Citation needed}}

The 2020 election is also precedent-breaking in a few ways that Randall didn't mention:
* Biden received over 76 million votes, the highest ever, beating Obama 2008's previous record of just under 69.5 million votes. The second highest raw vote total was for Trump, with approximately 71.5 million votes, ''also'' beating Obama 2008. Turnout as a percentage of the eligible population was the highest in over a century. Consequently (especially as total population has also been rising), both major parties' raw vote totals smash previous precedents.
* At 78, Joe Biden will be the oldest president ever on the day of his inauguration.
* Biden's running mate Kamala Harris will be the first-ever female vice president, and first Black vice president. A Californian, she'll also be the first Democratic president or vice president from the West.

The title text continues the theme of websites, by stating that no incumbent with a website had ever lost. Also, Biden is the first president from the state of Delaware, thus he broke the "precedent" that Delawareans can't win. Randall then proceeds to combine these 2 facts to create a new precedent: Only Delawareans can defeat incumbents with a website.

==Table of New Broken Precedents==

All original options can be found at [[1122: Electoral Precedent]].

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity

|-
|2012
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. ... Until Obama did. (Updated)
|
|
|-
|2016
|No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did.
|
|
|-
|2020?
|No one has won after being impeached. ✓
|None of the three prior presidents who were impeached even ran for re-election. This is the first time this specific condition has even been tested.
|Trump was impeached, did run and has  lost, so this test 'remains' true at this point in history.
|-
|2020?
|No challenger with a website has won. X
|The ''possibility'' of having a website only arose in the '90s and Bill Clinton seems to not have had one when he succeeded Bush Sr. Although websites became increasingly ubiquitous, no president since had ever been defeated by their respective challengers.
|"...until Biden"
(This may be the frame used in future updates.)
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:<nowiki>★</nowiki> Updated for 2020 ★

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parents are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Catholics can't win. ...Until Kennedy.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker."
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. ... Until Obama did.
:2016... No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did.
:2020? No one has won after being impeached. <big>✓</big>
:2020? No challenger with a website has won. <big>X</big>

:[Caption below the comic]
:Congratulations to President-Elect Joe Biden for breaking the website curse!

==Errors==
*This comic seems to have used the same image as [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], and so the original version of this comic had a ghost image of the original 2012 2nd "streak": "No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost."

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics with color]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-13T02:05:53Z

172.69.33.173: /* Explanation */ more explain

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on Twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| New York (and most of the Northern states) voted for Clinton, but Madison swept the Southern states to take victory.
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from Tennessee, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
| Martin Van Buren is the first president from the state of New York.
|
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
|
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Polk lost Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York.
|
|-
|1848
| As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
| Prior to 1848, (nearly) every candidate who had won the state of Mississippi had won the election. The only exception to this was the 1824 election, which was won when John Quincy Adams was elected by Congress. In 1848, Lewis Cass won the state of Mississippi, but lost the election to Zachary Taylor.
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|Pierce is the first candidate from the Democratic Party from New England, and he won the election of 1952.
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|Buchanan was the first unmarried president.
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
| Lincoln was the tallest president, at 6'4" tall.
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, with 51%, but lost in the electoral college in a {{w|1876 United States presidential election|contested election}}, resolved by the {{w|Compromise of 1877}}.
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|Since being a state in 1850, the winner of California had won the election - until 1880 when Winfield Hancock won California, but lost the election to James Garfield.
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|James Blaine was the first major candidate with the first name "James" to lose an election, losing to Grover Cleveland.
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|Grover Cleveland was the first president since the end of the Civil War to be defeated by a challenger, losing to Benjamin Harrison. Andrew Johnson was not chosen as the Democratic candidate in 1868. Ulysses S. Grant served 2 terms and did not run for a 3rd term. Rutherford B. Hayes and Chester A. Arthur (who became president after the assassination of James Garfield) did not seek reelection after their first term.
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|Cleveland was the first (and thus far only) president to serve 2 non-consecutive terms, winning the presidential election in 1884, losing in 1888, and winning in 1892.
|
|-
|1896
|Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|At the time, McKinley was only the 3rd Republican who was reelected (behind Lincoln, and Grant). And yes, he was the shortest of them all, at 5'7" tall.
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
|At the start of his presidency, Theodore Roosevelt was the youngest president, taking office at the age of 42.
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|Taft was the first Republican to win an election and not serve in the military - Lincoln served during the Black Hawk War; Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Benjamin Harrison and McKinley served in the Civil War; and Theodore Roosevelt served in the Spanish-American War.
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
|Since its statehood in 1863, Wilson is the first Democrat to lose West Virginia, but win the national election.
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|Harding was the first sitting Senator to become President - he resigned his position as Senator to become President.
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|'''C'''alvin '''C'''oolidge was the first with "two C's in his name". Presidents with "one C" in their names prior to Coolidge were John Quin'''c'''y Adams, Andrew Ja'''c'''kson, Za'''c'''hary Taylor, Franklin Pier'''c'''e, James Bu'''c'''hanan, Abraham Lin'''c'''oln, '''C'''hester A. Arthur, Grover '''C'''leveland and William M'''c'''kinley.
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms due to his popularity/policies, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. If Obama wins (as he did) it will break the streak.
|Barack Obama is 6' 1" (185 cm), and Mitt Romney is 6' 2" (188 cm)
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. If Romney wins (but he didn't) it will break the streak.
| Discounting third party and small nominees, these nominees won: Franklin Pierce, Franklin Roosevelt, Barack Obama
| Unbroken so far, so true
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-13T01:55:17Z

172.69.33.173: /* Transcript */ update

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on Twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| New York (and most of the Northern states) voted for Clinton, but Madison swept the Southern states to take victory.
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from Tennessee, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
|
|
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
|
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Polk lost Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York.
|
|-
|1848
| The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
|
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
|
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|
|
|-
|1896
|Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
|
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
|
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms due to his popularity/policies, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. If Obama wins (as he did) it will break the streak.
|Barack Obama is 6' 1" (185 cm), and Mitt Romney is 6' 2" (188 cm)
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. If Romney wins (but he didn't) it will break the streak.
| Discounting third party and small nominees, these nominees won: Franklin Pierce, Franklin Roosevelt, Barack Obama
| Unbroken so far, so true
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-12T01:16:47Z

172.69.33.173: /* Table of Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| New York (and most of the Northern states) voted for Clinton, but Madison swept the Southern states to take victory.
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from Tennessee, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
|
|
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
|
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Polk lost Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York.
|
|-
|1848
| The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
|
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
|
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|
|
|-
|1896
|Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
|
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
|
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms due to his popularity/policies, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers.
|
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost.
| This was not broken by Barac'''k''' Obama, and so is thus invalid
|
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-12T01:15:33Z

172.69.33.173: /* Table of Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| New York (and most of the Northern states) voted for Clinton, but Madison swept the Southern states to take victory.
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from Tennessee, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
|
|
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
|
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Polk lost Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York.
|
|-
|1848
| The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
|
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
|
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|
|
|-
|1896
|Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
|
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
|
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms due to his popularity/policies, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers.
|
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost.
| This was not broken by Barac'''k''' Obama, and so is thus invalid
| False
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-12T01:14:29Z

172.69.33.173: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| New York (and most of the Northern states) voted for Clinton, but Madison swept the Southern states to take victory.
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from Tennessee, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
|
|
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
|
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Polk lost Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York.
|
|-
|1848
| The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
|
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
|
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|
|
|-
|1896
|Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
|
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
|
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers.
|
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost.
| This was not broken by Barac'''k''' Obama, and so is thus invalid
| False
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-12T01:14:07Z

172.69.33.173: /* Table of Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| New York (and most of the Northern states) voted for Clinton, but Madison swept the Southern states to take victory.
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from Tennessee, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
|
|
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
|
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Polk lost Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York.
|
|-
|1848
| The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
|
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
|
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|
|
|-
|1896
|Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
|
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
|
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers.
|
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost.
| This was not broken by Barac'''k''' Obama, and so is thus invalid
| False
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-12T01:13:31Z

172.69.33.173: /* Table of Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| New York (and most of the Northern states) voted for Clinton, but Madison swept the Southern states to take victory.
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from Tennessee, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
|
|
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
|
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Polk lost Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York.
|
|-
|1848
| The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
|
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
|
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|
|
|-
|1896
|Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
|
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
|
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers.
|
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost.
| This was not broken by Barac'''k''' Obama, and so is thus invalid
| False
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-12T01:08:33Z

172.69.33.173: /* Table of Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| New York (and most of the Northern states) voted for Clinton, but Madison swept the Southern states to take victory.
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from Tennessee, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
|
|
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
|
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Polk lost Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York.
|
|-
|1848
| The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
|
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
|
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|
|
|-
|1896
|Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
|
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
|
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers.
|
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost.
| This was not broken by Barac'''k''' Obama, and so is thus invalid
| False
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

Talk:594: Period

2020-11-10T18:49:41Z

172.69.33.173: WAHOO!

...And angular velocity: 1.97 mHz [[Special:Contributions/108.162.231.30|108.162.231.30]] 23:29, 14 December 2014 (UTC)
This just makes me sad for Homestuck. ----

One must wonder whether Randall noticed the Homestuck connection at the time of making this comic. He is, apparently, a fan, as Homestuck is linked on the main xkcd site, but this comic was made within only a few months of the comic's start, so he mightn't have heard of it yet.--[[Special:Contributions/173.245.52.151|173.245.52.151]] 03:36, 13 February 2020 (UTC)

This is about 16 cents away from a very, very, *very* low A, for what it's worth. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.180|162.158.75.180]] 22:18, 1 July 2020 (UTC)
:Sorry, I don't speak... uh... I have no idea what language you're speaking. This comment is incomprehensible to me. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.173|172.69.33.173]] 18:49, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-10T00:53:29Z

172.69.33.173: /* Trivia/Errors */ add category

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four week before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others being: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

==Transcript==
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

2383: Electoral Precedent 2020

2020-11-10T00:52:57Z

172.69.33.173: /* Transcript */ categories

{{comic
| number = 2383
| date = November 9, 2020
| title = Electoral Precedent 2020
| image = electoral_precedent_2020.png
| titletext = He also broke the streak that incumbents with websites are unbeatable and Delawareans can't win, creating a new precedent: Only someone from Delaware can defeat an incumbent with a website.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic is an update to [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], adding "broken precedents" for the US presidential elections in 2016 and 2020.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]

2383: Electoral Precedent 2020

2020-11-10T00:50:08Z

172.69.33.173: /* Explanation */ brief

2383: Electoral Precedent 2020

2020-11-10T00:46:19Z

172.69.33.173: date

734: Outbreak

2019-09-11T07:12:48Z

172.69.33.173: /* Explanation */grammar

{{comic
| number = 734
| date = April 30, 2010
| title = Outbreak
| image = outbreak.png
| titletext = Let's get dinner after we promptly destroy all the X-7 we've manufactured.
}}

==Explanation==
{{w|Index case|Patient Zero}} is the usual terminology for the first patient tested or infected with an {{w|outbreak}}-style infection, (in the comic's case, a zombie outbreak,) like in the movie {{w|Outbreak (film)|Outbreak}}, which is not the main inspiration for this comic, except maybe the title.

This comic, however, serves to make fun of the stereotypical {{w|List of zombie films|zombie movie}} in which an unlikely series of events, coupled with extreme oversight on part of the staff, leave an opening for an outbreak to begin. Often, the infected find themselves lacking any restraint or containment, and freely move about in search of humans to infect.

In the comic Ryan (drawn as [[Cueball]]) tells Laura (drawn as [[Megan]]) that the patient has been exposed to ''toxin X-7''. The patient (a {{w|zombie}} version of a Cueball-like guy) can be seen through a window inside a laboratory, with Ryan trying to block the door. The patient has turned into a ''bloodthirsty monster'' that in true zombie-style calls out for brains, while walking with both arms stretched out and bits of him falling off, three typical cliches for zombie movies.

Laura then asks if the zombie has been kept in {{w|Isolation (health care)|isolation}}, a standard medical procedure that prevents the patient from coming into contact with anyone or anything not specifically approved, and thus prevents the spread of the disease. Her question serves to point out the drastic difference in real-life procedure and zombie movies.

When told that so far the zombie has been isolated her next action is to run to her car to obtain the weapon she has there to destroy the zombie, again showing contrast against the often irrational and illogical actions of medical staff in movies, whose behaviors usually lead to their deaths and to the spread of the disease, which causes the real outbreak. Because one person (or a few people) dying from a disease is not called an outbreak.

When Laura returns she kills patient zero, before he infects any other, thus the outbreak ends in the third panel five minutes after it started in the first panel.

The comic ends with a little "mock the audience" joke as romantic comedies stereotypically have a very different audience from zombie horror movies. The two characters had never been introduced before, their names are first given in the last panel. Having such an intense and life-threatening experience often causes people to fall in love. But for a zombie/disaster movie this is supposed to happen just before the end titles, so you have all the fun first, and can go home on the happy ending. Since the "fun" part only lasted for five minutes the rest of the movie will now describe Ryan and Laura's romantic relationship after this comic.

As a result, the director(s) of this movie are deliberately showing the wrong kind of film to the audience attracted by the title or teaser. This would be disastrous for a movie in real life given that audiences do not take kindly to such antics and are likely to pour hate about it online, dissuading others from going, and alienating both those audiences who enjoy romantic comedies and those who enjoy zombie films, leaving just a niche occupied by the people who enjoy both.

The title-text is included as another example of the logical real-life actions versus the illogical movie ones, as any dangerous substance in a real lab would be disposed of, preventing further harm. In zombie movies, another major trope is the medical staff thinking that they are safe after they eliminate the first zombie, only to find the remaining chemicals have been used to make more. But before Ryan and Laura have had dinner, they promptly go back and destroys both the X-7 toxin and the last hope of the zombie fans seeing the movie of any further action...

Zombies are a [[:Category:Zombies|recurring theme]] in xkcd. Though zombies are often depicted as being raised from the death they are as mentioned often created (in films) through disease or toxins as is the case here. Apart from the three typical features of zombies mentioned, the zombie in this comic is also called zombie in the [http://xkcd.com/734/info.0.json official transcript] on xkcd.

==Transcript==
:[Cueball and Megan, stand outside a door into a laboratory (as it says on the door). Cueball is leaning back against the door. A Cueball-like zombie which is clearly falling apart, walking with it's hands stretched out in front of it is visible through a window into the laboratory. At the top of the panel there is a frame around a yellow area with narration, which goes over the top of this panels frame.]
:Narrator: The outbreak started with Patient Zero...
:Cueball: He was exposed to toxin X-7— now he's a bloodthirsty monster!
:Megan: Has he been in isolation?
:Zombie: Braaains!
:Door: LAB

:[Cueball turns towards the door pushing on it partly blocking the doors label. A noise indicates the zombie banging on the door from inside. Megan runs right her head and hand already partly outside the frame.]
:Cueball: Yes, but I can't hold this door for long!
:Megan: Hang on, I've got a gun in my truck.
:Zombie hitting door: ''Wham''
:Door: LA

:[In this frame-less panel Cueball opens the door, leaning back with a hand in front of his face, as Megan shoots with her shotgun through the open door at the zombie inside.]
:Shotgun: <big>''Blam''</big>
:Door: LAB

:[Cueball and Megan , now revealed to be called Ryan and Laura, stand together away from the laboratory door. Megan still holds shotgun down. At the top and bottom of the panel there is two more frames around a yellow areas with narration, which goes over the top and bottom of this panels frame.]
:Narrator: And ended with Patient Zero five minutes later.
:Ryan: So, I never got your name. I'm Ryan.
:Laura: Laura.
:Narrator: The remaining 90 minutes of the movie will be a romantic comedy.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Zombies]]
[[Category:Fiction]]

1311: 2014

2019-06-20T19:17:22Z

172.69.33.173: /* Additional information */ ce

<noinclude>:''This page refers to the comic named "2014". For comic #2014, see [[2014: JWST Delays]].''</noinclude>
{{comic
| number = 1311
| date = January 1, 2014
| title = 2014
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]
| image = 2014.png
| titletext = Some future reader, who may see the term, without knowing the history of it, may imagine that it had reference to some antiquated bridge of the immortal Poet, thrown across the silver Avon, to facilitate his escape after some marauding excursion in a neighbouring park; and in some Gentleman's Magazine of the next century, it is not impossible, but that future antiquaries may occupy page after page in discussing so interesting a matter. We think it right, therefore, to put it on record in the Oriental Herald that the 'Shakesperian Rope Bridges' are of much less classic origin; that Mr Colin Shakespear, who, besides his dignity as Postmaster, now signs himself 'Superintendent General of Shakesperian Rope Bridges', is a person of much less genius than the Bard of Avon. --The Oriental Herald, 1825
}}

==Explanation==
This [[:Category:New Year|New Year comic]] is to commemorate the {{w|New Year}} by giving us a view of the coming year (2014) from the past. The comic includes many quotes from the 1800s and early 1900s that speak to a time close to 2014. Many of them are for the twenty-first century in general, and only three mention a year that would be 2014 exactly. All but one of them is a prediction, yet some of these are quotes from fictional literature, and therefore are not true predictions. Words are in boldface to highlight the relevant content in the quote. The grey or non-bold text is non-essential to the point Randall is interested in, and only to be used to understand the context of the quote.

The title text refers to a certain British officer, Mr. Colin Shakespeare, who experimented and promoted the use of rope suspension bridges in India.[http://books.google.com/books?id=aZRPAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA367] The reference to "The Bard of Avon" is a reference to {{w|William Shakespeare|Shakespeare (the playwright)}}, as {{w|River Avon (Warwickshire)|Avon}} is the river on which {{w|Stratford upon Avon}} is set, and is where the playwright was born and spent his youth. The author of this quote under the guise of eliminating the potential confusion that might result after decades or centuries have washed away the context, ironically and possibly vindictively, makes a point to note that the bridge is not named after the playwright, but Mr. Colin Shakespeare, whom he considers considerably less intelligent. This topic was previously covered in [[771: Period Speech]].

Two years before, another New Years comic with just the new years number as the title was released: [[998: 2012]]. But actually the content of this comic is more related to the comic coming out just before the 2012 comic: [[997: Wait Wait]], which is also a New Year comic, that took a look at what could happen in 2012, just as this one does for 2014... In 2016 another comic, with only the new year as the name theme, occurred again [[1624: 2016]]. For some reason this only seemed to happen in the even years, until [[1779: 2017]] was released, with [[1935: 2018]] being the next one.

The style of the comic is very similar to that of [[1227: The Pace of Modern Life]], which was released half a year earlier.

===Additional information===

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Quote
! Author or publisher
! Year
! Years realized
! Description
|-
| "It's desirable '''every thing printed should be preserved,''' for we '''cannot now tell how useful it may become''' two centuries hence."
| Christopher Baldwin
| 1834
| Not a prediction
| A good idea. Now, with Google Books, this can be done in an easier manner. Many books printed between that time and the widespread usage of higher-quality wood-pulp paper in the early 1990s are either no longer known to exist, are heavily damaged (mostly through deterioration — see {{w|slow fire}}) or are very scarce.
|-
| "I predict that a century hence the '''Canadian people''' will be '''the noblest specimens of humanity on the face of the earth'''"
| Rev John Bredin
| 1863
| Not realized
| Notably, there is a common joke nowadays that Canadians are always calm, mellow, polite peoples, even when insulting others. The rest of the quote goes as follows: ''"all that was good in the Celt, the Saxon, the Gaul and other races, combining to form neither English, Irish, nor Welsh, but Canadians, who would take their place among the churches of Christendom and the nations of the earth."'' This religious prediction probably wasn't believed even by its author. It's only a harangue.
|-
| "In the twenty-first century '''mankind will subsist entirely upon jellies.'''"
| The Book Lover
| 1903
| Not realized
| Concentrates, which are gelatin like, form a large part of our food sources. Absurd if taken literally, but if he's talking about processed foods in general then he's not too far from the mark.
|-
| "The twenty-first century baby is destined to be rocked and cradled by electricity, warmed and coddled by electricity, perhaps fathered and mothered by electricity. '''Probably the only thing he will be left to do unaided will be to make love.'''"
| Mrs John Lane, The Fortnightly
| 1905
| 1960s - 1980s
| The process of child-''rearing'' is still a human task by and large, with the exception of artificial insemination, and Viagra, Cialis, vibrators, and other kinkier toys. Probably meant as an exaggeration when it was first said, but it is still valid to some degree.
|-
| "To-day, in the city of New York, sixty-six different tongues are spoken. '''A century hence, there will probably be only one.'''"
| The American Historical Magazine
| 1907
| Not realized
| The number of languages spoken in New York City is believed to be greater than 100; some estimate as many as 800 languages are spoken there. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that in the greater New York metropolitan area, almost 7 million people speak a language other than English at home, including over 3.5 million who speak Spanish, 2 million who speak other Indo-European languages, 1 million who speak Asian or Pacific Island languages, and 300,000 who speak other languages. Also, New York City is the location of the headquarters of the United Nations, with diplomats from nearly every country in the world, and several official languages.
|-
| "I often think '''what interesting history we are making for the student of the twenty-first century.'''"
| William Carey Jones
| 1908
| 1900's to now
| Referring to the events that led to {{w|World War I}}. In 1908, {{w|Bosnian crisis|Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina}}. This led to the {{w|Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria|Sarajevo Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria}} in 1914 that is considered the starting event of the World War.
|-
| "China may be a '''great shoe market''' a decade or a century from now."
| Boot and Shoe Recorder
| 1914
| 1970's to now
| While it is true that China is a good shoe market, this quote can be viewed as vastly underestimating the potential of China. To be fair it says "a decade or a century from now" and it was not a great market until China and Nixon broke down trade barriers, which is well after 1924.
|-
| "'''We cannot settle the problem,''' and I venture the prophecy that perhaps '''a century from now this same question may be brought before some future society and discussed very much as it is tonight.'''
| Dr. Barton C. Hirst (on abortion)
| 1914
| 2014
| Abortion is still heavily debated
|-
| "By the twenty-first century '''we shall all be telepaths.'''"
| Gumbril, a character in {{w|Aldous Huxley}}'s novel ''{{w|Antic Hay}}''
| 1923
| Not realized
| [http://books.google.com/books?id=pdXj2SZ1mT8C&pg=PA205]: "And it's my firm belief," said Gumbril Senior, adding notes to his epic, "that they [the birds] make use of some sort of telepathy, some kind of direct mind-to-mind communication between themselves. You can't watch them without coming to that conclusion." [...] "It's a faculty," Gumbril Senior went on, "we all possess, I believe. All we animals." [...] "By the twenty-first century, I believe, we shall all be telepaths. Meanwhile, these delightful birds have forestalled us."
|-
| "The physician of the twenty-first century… may even criticize the language of the times, and may find that '''some of our words have become as offensive to him as the term "lunatic" has become offensive to us.'''"
| Dr. C. Macfie Cambell
| 1924
| 1950's to now
| The word "lunatic" is still considered derogatory and because of that it would never be used in a clinical sense. He correctly predicts the trajectory of terms like "{{w|mentally retarded}}", itself adopted by his day to replace earlier terms for the intellectually disabled, such as "moron" and "imbecile", which had become pejorative. Soon enough the word "retard" joined them in that regard, and it now has largely been abandoned as a medical term. This cycle is a common one, known as (among other things) the "{{w|euphemism treadmill}}".
|-
| "Historians of the twenty-first century will look back with well-placed scorn on the '''shallow-minded days''' of the early twentieth century '''when football games and petting parties were considered the most important elements of a college education.'''"
| Mary Eileen Ahern, Library Bureau
| 1926
| 2000’s to now
| Football programs in colleges are not "looked down upon" per se, and it is still considered desirable to be an athlete in college. Likewise it's still considered desirable to have a date in college. However these is far from being considered "the most important elements of a college education"; most college students prioritize their schoolwork over their love lives, and sports programs often require students to maintain a certain threshold of grade-point average to remain on the team.
|-
| "'''In the year A.D. 2014''' journalists will be writing on the centenary of the great war — '''that is, if there has not been a greater war.'''"
| F.J.M, The Journalist
| 1934
| 2014 and 1939 respectively
| July 28, 2014 marks 100 years since the beginning of {{w|World War I}} (more than 9 million combatants were killed). As the author of this quote foreshadows, there was a greater war, {{w|World War II}} (around 25 million soldiers were killed). Journalists will definitely write articles of this war on its anniversary, but as the quote correctly predicts it is no longer popularly called '''The Great War''' as World War II had a larger scope and was therefore a '''"greater war"'''.
|}

==Transcript==
:(This is a series of quotes from various people of various timeframes. Each quote is followed by the author, the document of publication if applicable, and the year.)

:'''Notes from the past'''

:It's desirable '''every thing printed should be preserved,''' for we '''cannot now tell how useful it may become''' two centuries hence.
::Christopher Baldwin
:::'''1834'''

:I predict that a century hence the '''Canadian people''' will be '''the noblest specimens of humanity on the face of the earth'''
::Rev. John Bredin
:::'''1863'''

:In the twenty-first century '''mankind will subsist entirely upon jellies.'''
::''The Booklover''
:::'''1903'''

:The twenty-first century baby is destined to be rocked and cradled by electricity, warmed and coddled by electricity, perhaps fathered and mothered by electricity. '''Probably the only thing he will be left to do unaided will be to make love.'''
::Mrs. John Lane, ''The fortnightly''
:::'''1905'''

:To-day, in the city of New York, sixty-six different tongues are spoken. '''A century hence, there will probably be only one.'''
::''The American Historical Magazine''
:::'''1907'''

:I often think '''what interesting history we are making for the student of the twenty-first century.'''
::Willian Carey Jones
:::'''1908'''

:China may be a '''great shoe market''' a decade or a century from now.
::''Boot and Shoe Recorder''
:::'''1914'''

:'''We cannot settle the problem,''' and I venture the prophecy that perhaps '''a century from now this same question may be brought before some future society and discussed very much as it is tonight.'''
::Dr. Barton C. Hirst on the subject of '''abortion'''
:::'''1914'''

:By the twenty-first century I believe '''we shall all be telepaths.'''
::Gumbriel, character in ''Antic Hay''
:::'''1923'''

:The physician of the twenty-first century… may even criticize the language of the times, and may find that '''some of our words have become as offensive to him as the term "lunatic" has become offensive to us.'''
::Dr. C. Macfie Campbell
:::'''1924'''

:Historians of the twenty-first century will look back with well-placed scorn on the '''shallow-minded days''' of the early twentieth century '''when football games and petting parties were considered the most important elements of a college education.'''
::Mary Eileen Ahern, ''Library Bureau''
:::'''1926'''

:'''In the year A.D. 2014''' journalists will be writing on the centenary of the great war — '''that is, if there has not been a greater war.'''
::F.J.M, ''The Journalist''
:::'''1934'''

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:New Year]]
[[Category:Language]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:American football]]
[[Category:Comics sharing name|2014]]

1311: 2014

2019-06-20T19:16:38Z

172.69.33.173: /* Additional information */ wlink

<noinclude>:''This page refers to the comic named "2014". For comic #2014, see [[2014: JWST Delays]].''</noinclude>
{{comic
| number = 1311
| date = January 1, 2014
| title = 2014
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]
| image = 2014.png
| titletext = Some future reader, who may see the term, without knowing the history of it, may imagine that it had reference to some antiquated bridge of the immortal Poet, thrown across the silver Avon, to facilitate his escape after some marauding excursion in a neighbouring park; and in some Gentleman's Magazine of the next century, it is not impossible, but that future antiquaries may occupy page after page in discussing so interesting a matter. We think it right, therefore, to put it on record in the Oriental Herald that the 'Shakesperian Rope Bridges' are of much less classic origin; that Mr Colin Shakespear, who, besides his dignity as Postmaster, now signs himself 'Superintendent General of Shakesperian Rope Bridges', is a person of much less genius than the Bard of Avon. --The Oriental Herald, 1825
}}

==Explanation==
This [[:Category:New Year|New Year comic]] is to commemorate the {{w|New Year}} by giving us a view of the coming year (2014) from the past. The comic includes many quotes from the 1800s and early 1900s that speak to a time close to 2014. Many of them are for the twenty-first century in general, and only three mention a year that would be 2014 exactly. All but one of them is a prediction, yet some of these are quotes from fictional literature, and therefore are not true predictions. Words are in boldface to highlight the relevant content in the quote. The grey or non-bold text is non-essential to the point Randall is interested in, and only to be used to understand the context of the quote.

The title text refers to a certain British officer, Mr. Colin Shakespeare, who experimented and promoted the use of rope suspension bridges in India.[http://books.google.com/books?id=aZRPAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA367] The reference to "The Bard of Avon" is a reference to {{w|William Shakespeare|Shakespeare (the playwright)}}, as {{w|River Avon (Warwickshire)|Avon}} is the river on which {{w|Stratford upon Avon}} is set, and is where the playwright was born and spent his youth. The author of this quote under the guise of eliminating the potential confusion that might result after decades or centuries have washed away the context, ironically and possibly vindictively, makes a point to note that the bridge is not named after the playwright, but Mr. Colin Shakespeare, whom he considers considerably less intelligent. This topic was previously covered in [[771: Period Speech]].

Two years before, another New Years comic with just the new years number as the title was released: [[998: 2012]]. But actually the content of this comic is more related to the comic coming out just before the 2012 comic: [[997: Wait Wait]], which is also a New Year comic, that took a look at what could happen in 2012, just as this one does for 2014... In 2016 another comic, with only the new year as the name theme, occurred again [[1624: 2016]]. For some reason this only seemed to happen in the even years, until [[1779: 2017]] was released, with [[1935: 2018]] being the next one.

The style of the comic is very similar to that of [[1227: The Pace of Modern Life]], which was released half a year earlier.

===Additional information===

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Quote
! Author or publisher
! Year
! Years realized
! Description
|-
| "It's desirable '''every thing printed should be preserved,''' for we '''cannot now tell how useful it may become''' two centuries hence."
| Christopher Baldwin
| 1834
| Not a prediction
| A good idea. Now, with Google Books, this can be done in an easier manner. Many books printed between that time and the widespread usage of higher-quality wood-pulp paper in the early 1990s are either no longer known to exist, are heavily damaged (mostly through deterioration — see {{w|slow fire}}) or are very scarce.
|-
| "I predict that a century hence the '''Canadian people''' will be '''the noblest specimens of humanity on the face of the earth'''"
| Rev John Bredin
| 1863
| Not realized
| Notably, there is a common joke nowadays that Canadians are always calm, mellow, polite peoples, even when insulting others. The rest of the quote goes as follows: ''"all that was good in the Celt, the Saxon, the Gaul and other races, combining to form neither English, Irish, nor Welsh, but Canadians, who would take their place among the churches of Christendom and the nations of the earth."'' This religious prediction probably wasn't believed even by its author. It's only a harangue.
|-
| "In the twenty-first century '''mankind will subsist entirely upon jellies.'''"
| The Book Lover
| 1903
| Not realized
| Concentrates, which are gelatin like, form a large part of our food sources. Absurd if taken literally, but if he's talking about processed foods in general then he's not too far from the mark.
|-
| "The twenty-first century baby is destined to be rocked and cradled by electricity, warmed and coddled by electricity, perhaps fathered and mothered by electricity. '''Probably the only thing he will be left to do unaided will be to make love.'''"
| Mrs John Lane, The Fortnightly
| 1905
| 1960s - 1980s
| The process of child-''rearing'' is still a human task by and large, with the exception of artificial insemination, and Viagra, Cialis, vibrators, and other kinkier toys. Probably meant as an exaggeration when it was first said, but it is still valid to some degree.
|-
| "To-day, in the city of New York, sixty-six different tongues are spoken. '''A century hence, there will probably be only one.'''"
| The American Historical Magazine
| 1907
| Not realized
| The number of languages spoken in New York City is believed to be greater than 100; some estimate as many as 800 languages are spoken there. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that in the greater New York metropolitan area, almost 7 million people speak a language other than English at home, including over 3.5 million who speak Spanish, 2 million who speak other Indo-European languages, 1 million who speak Asian or Pacific Island languages, and 300,000 who speak other languages. Also, New York City is the location of the headquarters of the United Nations, with diplomats from nearly every country in the world, and several official languages.
|-
| "I often think '''what interesting history we are making for the student of the twenty-first century.'''"
| William Carey Jones
| 1908
| 1900's to now
| Referring to the events that led to {{w|World War I}}. In 1908, {{w|Bosnian crisis|Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina}}. This led to the {{w|Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria|Sarajevo Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria}} in 1914 that is considered the starting event of the World War.
|-
| "China may be a '''great shoe market''' a decade or a century from now."
| Boot and Shoe Recorder
| 1914
| 1970's to now
| While it is true that China is a good shoe market, this quote can be viewed as vastly underestimating the potential of China. To be fair it says "a decade or a century from now" and it was not a great market until China and Nixon broke down trade barriers, which is well after 1924.
|-
| "'''We cannot settle the problem,''' and I venture the prophecy that perhaps '''a century from now this same question may be brought before some future society and discussed very much as it is tonight.'''
| Dr. Barton C. Hirst (on abortion)
| 1914
| 2014
| Abortion is still heavily debated
|-
| "By the twenty-first century '''we shall all be telepaths.'''"
| Gumbril, a character in {{w|Aldous Huxley}}'s novel ''{w|Antic Hay}}''
| 1923
| Not realized
| [http://books.google.com/books?id=pdXj2SZ1mT8C&pg=PA205]: "And it's my firm belief," said Gumbril Senior, adding notes to his epic, "that they [the birds] make use of some sort of telepathy, some kind of direct mind-to-mind communication between themselves. You can't watch them without coming to that conclusion." [...] "It's a faculty," Gumbril Senior went on, "we all possess, I believe. All we animals." [...] "By the twenty-first century, I believe, we shall all be telepaths. Meanwhile, these delightful birds have forestalled us."
|-
| "The physician of the twenty-first century… may even criticize the language of the times, and may find that '''some of our words have become as offensive to him as the term "lunatic" has become offensive to us.'''"
| Dr. C. Macfie Cambell
| 1924
| 1950's to now
| The word "lunatic" is still considered derogatory and because of that it would never be used in a clinical sense. He correctly predicts the trajectory of terms like "{{w|mentally retarded}}", itself adopted by his day to replace earlier terms for the intellectually disabled, such as "moron" and "imbecile", which had become pejorative. Soon enough the word "retard" joined them in that regard, and it now has largely been abandoned as a medical term. This cycle is a common one, known as (among other things) the "{{w|euphemism treadmill}}".
|-
| "Historians of the twenty-first century will look back with well-placed scorn on the '''shallow-minded days''' of the early twentieth century '''when football games and petting parties were considered the most important elements of a college education.'''"
| Mary Eileen Ahern, Library Bureau
| 1926
| 2000’s to now
| Football programs in colleges are not "looked down upon" per se, and it is still considered desirable to be an athlete in college. Likewise it's still considered desirable to have a date in college. However these is far from being considered "the most important elements of a college education"; most college students prioritize their schoolwork over their love lives, and sports programs often require students to maintain a certain threshold of grade-point average to remain on the team.
|-
| "'''In the year A.D. 2014''' journalists will be writing on the centenary of the great war — '''that is, if there has not been a greater war.'''"
| F.J.M, The Journalist
| 1934
| 2014 and 1939 respectively
| July 28, 2014 marks 100 years since the beginning of {{w|World War I}} (more than 9 million combatants were killed). As the author of this quote foreshadows, there was a greater war, {{w|World War II}} (around 25 million soldiers were killed). Journalists will definitely write articles of this war on its anniversary, but as the quote correctly predicts it is no longer popularly called '''The Great War''' as World War II had a larger scope and was therefore a '''"greater war"'''.
|}

==Transcript==
:(This is a series of quotes from various people of various timeframes. Each quote is followed by the author, the document of publication if applicable, and the year.)

:'''Notes from the past'''

:It's desirable '''every thing printed should be preserved,''' for we '''cannot now tell how useful it may become''' two centuries hence.
::Christopher Baldwin
:::'''1834'''

:I predict that a century hence the '''Canadian people''' will be '''the noblest specimens of humanity on the face of the earth'''
::Rev. John Bredin
:::'''1863'''

:In the twenty-first century '''mankind will subsist entirely upon jellies.'''
::''The Booklover''
:::'''1903'''

:The twenty-first century baby is destined to be rocked and cradled by electricity, warmed and coddled by electricity, perhaps fathered and mothered by electricity. '''Probably the only thing he will be left to do unaided will be to make love.'''
::Mrs. John Lane, ''The fortnightly''
:::'''1905'''

:To-day, in the city of New York, sixty-six different tongues are spoken. '''A century hence, there will probably be only one.'''
::''The American Historical Magazine''
:::'''1907'''

:I often think '''what interesting history we are making for the student of the twenty-first century.'''
::Willian Carey Jones
:::'''1908'''

:China may be a '''great shoe market''' a decade or a century from now.
::''Boot and Shoe Recorder''
:::'''1914'''

:'''We cannot settle the problem,''' and I venture the prophecy that perhaps '''a century from now this same question may be brought before some future society and discussed very much as it is tonight.'''
::Dr. Barton C. Hirst on the subject of '''abortion'''
:::'''1914'''

:By the twenty-first century I believe '''we shall all be telepaths.'''
::Gumbriel, character in ''Antic Hay''
:::'''1923'''

:The physician of the twenty-first century… may even criticize the language of the times, and may find that '''some of our words have become as offensive to him as the term "lunatic" has become offensive to us.'''
::Dr. C. Macfie Campbell
:::'''1924'''

:Historians of the twenty-first century will look back with well-placed scorn on the '''shallow-minded days''' of the early twentieth century '''when football games and petting parties were considered the most important elements of a college education.'''
::Mary Eileen Ahern, ''Library Bureau''
:::'''1926'''

:'''In the year A.D. 2014''' journalists will be writing on the centenary of the great war — '''that is, if there has not been a greater war.'''
::F.J.M, ''The Journalist''
:::'''1934'''

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:New Year]]
[[Category:Language]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:American football]]
[[Category:Comics sharing name|2014]]

2154: Motivation

2019-05-24T17:32:39Z

172.69.33.173: /* Transcript */ add category

{{comic
| number = 2154
| date = May 24, 2019
| title = Motivation
| image = motivation.png
| titletext = What's even worse is, a month ago they transferred me to work on the game I was already playing, and suddenly I found myself procrastinating by playing the one I'd been assigned before. It's possible they're onto me and this is all part of the plan.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a VIDEO GAME PLAYTESTER. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball and Ponytail sitting at a desk, working on their laptops]
:Cueball: What are you working on?
:Ponytail: Playing a game that involves exactly as much planning, problem-solving and boring drudgework as the actual job I'm avoiding.

:[Zoom in on Cueball]
:Haha, yeah, I've definitely been there.

:[Zoom back out to Cueball and Ponytail sitting at a desk, working on their laptops]
:Cueball: What's your job these days, anyway?
:Ponytail: Video game playtester.
:Cueball: ...
:Ponytail: Look, motivation is weird, ok?

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Video games]]

2149: Alternate Histories

2019-05-16T17:55:40Z

172.69.33.173: /* Explanation */ ce

{{comic
| number = 2149
| date = May 13, 2019
| title = Alternate Histories
| image = alternate_histories.png
| titletext = "So their universe wouldn't have the iconic photo of a screaming Truman being hoisted aloft by the newspaper-printing machinery..."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a CYBERNETIC HORSE-EMPEROR. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
Alternate histories are a common device in speculative fiction. One of the most common (even cliche) uses of alternate history is to posit a world in which the {{w|Hypothetical Axis victory in World War II|Axis Powers achieved victory in World War II}}. This is presumably so compelling because it was a relatively recent event in which a series of relatively minor changes could have altered world history in major ways. One of the standard literary works along this line is Philip K. Dick's ''{{W|The Man in the High Castle}}'', where the world is split into spheres of influence controlled by the {{W|Empire of Japan}} and {{W|Nazi Germany}}. This novel has been developed into a {{w|The Man in the High Castle (TV series)|popular TV series}} of the same name on Amazon Prime.

At one point, ''The Man in the High Castle'' discusses the fiction of their own world, which includes their own alternate histories in which the Allies had won the war instead. ''The Grasshopper Lies Heavy'' is one such novel. Because these stories are speculative, they don't entirely match the 'real' history of our world, differing in key ways. This results in an "alternate-alternate" history where the Allies won World War II, but the details still differ rather significantly than the history of World War II in our reality -- most notably, ''The Grasshopper Lies Heavy'' depicts a post-World War II world defined by a {{w|Cold War}} between the United States and the British Empire, rather than one between the United States and Soviet Union. In one sense, this functions as a meta-critique of the very concept of alternate histories, highlighting the reality that we can never know the details of what would have happened if history had gone differently.

In this comic, Megan and Cueball discuss this fictional device. Then in typical xkcd fashion, things start to get exaggerated to ridiculous proportions: Megan points out that, if characters in our stories have their own fiction, then the characters in their stories presumably have their own body of fiction, and so on, creating a recursive loop. If each alternate history contains its own alternate history, presumably each iteration would deviate more and more from our own reality, because each would be speculation based on increasing layers of speculation. Eventually (by the 500th iteration) the history would differ so wildly from our own as to be completely absurd to us, with very few elements being even recognizable.

The 500th iteration timeline apparently includes hovercraft, and cybernetic horses. {{w|Hovercraft}} are a real technology which does have military applications as landing craft, but their use in actual warfare has been limited. Cybernetic horses do not exist in our timeline{{Citation needed}}, but {{w|Boston Dynamics}} is getting close. In our timeline, Scotland is part of the United Kingdom, and would likely not develop military technology independently. New Jersey is a state in the United States and Madagascar was controlled by France during World War II; neither of these would normally be able to pursue an independent foreign policy that would have allowed them to join alliances and fight wars unless their parent governments also did. Belgium was occupied by the Axis Powers early in the war. These three regions developing a alliance and fighting against Canada (which was also an Allied power) would require a highly unlikely combination of events. How this war would be affected by the lack of Scottish hovercraft is unclear. This scenario also apparently contains a theocracy of some variety in Missouri, which remarkably is vaguely plausible.

Interestingly, even within the bounds of the exceedingly meta-fiction, it is bordering on impossible for the scenario to come into existence; the reason for this is that while the ending would become evermore bizarre, the actual events will only be able to vary so much, as they are based on predetermined scenarios that occur before the changes take place. Unless at least two wars are being modified, or the events are based on a later occurrence, (basically the two are discussing something different entirely, albeit still a historical scenario) the idea of so many implausible things occurring is unlikely no matter what the circumstances, unless they all happened over the course of the war. Of course, it's possible several of those 500 iterations involve BAD alternate histories fiction. Or possibly fiction based on history which was deliberately falsified.

It's unlikely, but it's worth noting that "cybernetic horses" could be a reference to {{w|cyber force}}s, since in [[1418: Horse]] that substitution is suggested.

{{W|Laura Ingalls Wilder}} was an American author, best known for her ''{{W|Little House on the Prairie}}'' series. In the 500th iteration timeline, she apparently became "God-Emperor of Missouri", despite not being known as a political figure in our timeline. {{W|Harry S Truman}}, in our timeline, became 33rd President of the United States, following the death of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. In the 500th iteration timeline, Truman apparently died in an accident involving pajamas and a printing press while still a senator (presumably a U.S. senator, since in our reality he was serving in the United States Senate prior to being nominated as Roosevelt's vice president in 1944). He apparently remained a significant enough figure for 500th-iteration Megan to speculate that he would have become God-Emperor of Missouri if he'd survived.

The title text continues the discussion about Truman, mentioning a photograph of Truman screaming in horror as he is hoisted by newspaper-printing machinery. This plays off {{w|Dewey Defeats Truman|a famous photograph from our world}} where Truman is the one hoisting up a copy of the ''Chicago Tribune'' in triumph, as said newspaper erroneously claimed he was defeated in the {{w|1948 United States presidential election}} by {{w|Thomas Dewey}}.

==Transcript==
:[Megan and Cueball are walking together]
:Megan: In alternate history stories where the allies lost WWII, sometimes they have their own fiction with the premise "what if the allies had ''won''?" which differs from our world since they'd be speculating and wouldn't predict everything.
:Cueball: Yeah, I think they do that in ''Man in the High Castle''.

:[Megan and Cueball continue walking together]
:Megan: But within ''those'' stories, they should have "what if the allies had ''lost''?" fiction which is even ''more'' removed from our world.
:Cueball: Uh oh.
:Megan: So how deep does it go?

:[Cueball and Megan, wearing tall black ball-topped hats and large bracelets and presumably from some alternate history, are walking together. There is a caption in a frame over the top of the panel]
:500 levels in:
:Megan: In my alternate history, Scotland never develops hovercraft, so Canada's cybernetic horses ''defeat'' the Belgium-Madagascar-New Jersey alliance.
:Cueball: Wow!

:[Alternate history Cueball and Megan continue walking together]
:Cueball: Then who becomes God-Emperor of Missouri, if not Laura Ingalls Wilder?
:Megan: Senator Truman!
:Cueball: He survives the accident?!
:Megan: Yeah, the pajama craze never catches on, so he's wearing normal clothes when he walks by the printing press...

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Characters with Hats]]
[[Category:Fiction]]

{{comic discussion}}

2149: Alternate Histories

2019-05-13T17:49:16Z

172.69.33.173: /* Explanation */ copyedit, incomplete tag deleted too soon

793: Physicists

2019-05-08T22:14:35Z

172.69.33.173: /* Transcript */ clarify

{{comic
| number = 793
| date = September 15, 2010
| title = Physicists
| image = physicists.png
| titletext = If you need some help with the math, let me know, but that should be enough to get you started! Huh? No, I don't need to read your thesis, I can imagine roughly what it says.
}}

==Explanation==
This comic shows a view that many physics students, upon first encountering a well-known problem, think that it is not a difficult problem, since they think they can fix it using an extremely simplified model. The obvious problem with this is that if it was that simple to solve the problem to a useful degree, there wouldn't be an entire department studying the problem. This attitude leads to great annoyance from those who have probably spent years and years working on the problem, hence the Cueball with balled up fists, implying that he wants to punch the physics major.

This argument is similar to the {{w|Spherical cow}}, an idea that basic models taught in early physics classes only work in friction-less vacuums, as shown in [[669: Experiment]].

The title text takes the dismissive attitude to its logical extreme. The comment "liberal-arts majors can be annoying sometimes" seems to be referencing the stereotype that they're all elitist know-it-alls.

[[Cueball]] later behaves similarly in [[1831: Here to Help]].

==Transcript==
:[Cueball stands at a blackboard covered in equations and diagrams, an open laptop and scattered paper at his feet. His fists are balled in anger and there is a little angry squiggle over his head. A Cueball-like physicist stands behind him, arms out in a shrug.]
:Physicist: You're trying to predict the behavior of <complicated system>? Just model it as a <simple object>, and then add some secondary terms to account for <complications I just thought of>.
:Physicist: Easy, right?
:Physicist: So, why does <your field> need a whole journal, anyway?

:[Caption below the panel:]
:Liberal-arts majors may be annoying sometimes, but there's ''nothing'' more obnoxious than a physicist first encountering a new subject.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Multiple Cueballs]]
[[Category:Physics]]

2139: Email Settings

2019-04-26T17:11:40Z

172.69.33.173: /* Explanation */ copyedits

{{comic
| number = 2139
| date = April 19, 2019
| title = Email Settings
| image = email_settings.png
| titletext = What are all these less-than signs? What's an HREF? Look, we know you live in a fancy futuristic tech world, but not all of us have upgraded to the latest from Sun Microsystems.
}}

==Explanation==
The comic shows some email settings with a few less than helpful options.

*'''Default Reply Behavior'''
Normal reply behavior would be to reply to the person who sent the original email. Typically in email programs there is an option to Reply to all (reply all) other recipients of an email in addition to the sender. Depending on the email usage pattern this is a potentially useful or a potentially annoying option. "Forward to address book" takes this one step further by sending your reply to every person who is in your address book, whether they received the original email or not. This could be a reference to "{{w|Chain_letter|chain emails}}", which are popularly forwarded to many users.

*'''Vacation Autoresponder'''
This is a message that is automatically sent out in reply to an email to let them know that you are away and won't be replying until you return. Rather than the settings be "on" and "off", this system consists of "while on vacation" and "always". Email systems typically have no way of knowing that you're on vacation (although some email providers, such as Gmail, could figure out if you're on vacation using information gleaned from your emails, such as hotel and flight confirmations). The "reply to all emails with vacation notice, even when I'm not on vacation" is an option used by some companies (e.g. travel agencies) to let the sender of a request know the expected reply-timeline and similar information. In the second case the notice is not a "vacation notice", but applying the same functionality of the email program.

*'''Reply to all newsletters with "Thank you for the newsletter!"'''
This option is completely unnecessary, in that newsletters are usually automated and shotgunned out to thousand of addresses at once, often with a do-not-reply from address.

*'''Attachment limit'''
These {{w|Email attachment|attachment}} limits are all pretty small, with 300 kilobytes and 1.4 megabytes being the capacity of old 5.25" and 3.5" floppy disks, and 5 megabytes, while better, is smaller than most high resolution cell phone camera pictures. It being in beta means that it might not be as dependable. However, setting the maximum attachment size would likely not be a user setting; it would be a setting the email system enforces on the user. In the past with slow connections and very limited mailbox sizes, this option was useful to keep the message size in check. In the present, Gmail still has the same 25MB attachment limit it had in 2004.

*'''Default email format:'''
Plain text is self explanatory; plain text with no special formatting options. {{w|HTML}} means that it can have markup to allow for bold text, colors, etc. {{w|CSS}} is in reference to Cascading Style Sheets, which is a styling option often combined with HTML, but useless on its own. With emails it is typically used as inline CSS.

*'''Reply to HTML emails with "Whoa, buddy, what's all this code?"'''
HTML email is a format for sending email with {{w|Formatted text|rich-text}} contents, which may include images and links. If your email client isn't configured for HTML, the content may look like text interspersed with a bunch of weird code. Since HTML email is a common format, replying this way to every HTML email you receive can be an effective way to annoy people. This may be a "throwback" option: a few years ago, email systems didn't always recognize HTML emails, so if you sent an HTML email you might very well receive this kind of reply.

*'''Character set'''
{{w|ASCII}} is the character group containing all of the letters in the English alphabet, as well as the digits and common symbols. The Non-ASCII set contains all of the non-English alphabets and the rest of the (lesser used) symbols. Some of those characters, such as those from Cyrillic and Greek, resemble letters from the Latin alphabet; when spammers use these resemblances to deceive users, it is called an {{w|IDN homograph attack}}, but now that this email client is set to exclude ASCII characters, the user must use the same technique to communicate with speakers of most European languages. Older computer programs often only allowed ASCII characters or a much more limited set of characters than the full amount of recognized {{w|Unicode}} characters, but it would be unusual today for an email program to default to only allow for ASCII characters, although someone might want to deliberately set things that way. The second option is nonsense because, while you would likely want to allow other characters, you would definitely not want to allow '''only''' those and exclude the ASCII characters (so people couldn't use regular letters or numbers or the most common punctuation).

*'''Smart autocomplete'''
Some email platforms, including Gmail, have the ability to use machine learning to suggest possible, usually short reply options for you to choose from. If the original email asks if you want to go to dinner, the auto-complete replies might be, "Yes", "No", "How about Friday?" and then you could choose one, or type your own reply. The third option to automatically respond to ''all'' emails with suggested reply is putting a lot of faith in the computer, and is likely to backfire quickly, even more so, if your recipients also have activated this option.

*'''Important emails'''
Showing important emails is the expected behavior, and hiding only them would be a very strange thing to want to do. If it is set to hide only certain emails, a program would definitely do the opposite, and hide emails judged to be most likely unimportant "spam" emails.

*'''Show unread email count...'''
Seeing your unread email count is normal behavior, and a good way to see how much you're getting spammed by useless emails from people you never asked for. A projected unread email count based on when the system expects you to die, and how well you do at reading your email on a day to day basis is probably going to be depressing or in the extreme could be so overwhelming to be the actual cause of death on the projected date. Showing the unread email count on the user's projected day of death could also be a reference to a feature in many video games where the player's score is shown when they die. In this case, the "score" would be the user's unread email count.

*'''Signature'''
An {{w|Signature block|email signature}} is a bit of canned text that gets added to the end of an email, often containing your name, and sometimes a bit of other information like a title and other contact information. Having the choices being None and "That's my email. Hope you liked it!" is less useful. Less useful signatures somewhat came into vogue after Apple used it for cheap iPhone advertisement ("Sent from my iPhone") and Apple as well as non-Apple users made fun by using quite creative signatures themselves ([[https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/07/mobile-device-email-signatures-more-than-you-ever-wanted-to-know/277950/ here is a breakdown with examples]]). For many, the actual purpose of email signatures got lost.

The title text also references HTML email, in which angle brackets (i.e, less-than and greater-than symbols) are used to show the opening and closing tags of elements. "href" is a common attribute in HTML elements denoting the location a hyperlink will take you to upon being clicked. This is likely another "throwback" reference as Sun Microsystems was a maker of Unix workstations popular in the late 1980s through 2000s (now part of Oracle Corporation). The message could also be written by someone receiving an HTML email which is not recognized as one and directly shown on the screen.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:'''Email Settings'''
:[A list of controls with radio buttons and checkboxes]
:Default reply behavior
::( ) Reply
::( ) Reply All
::(*) Forward to address book

:Vacation autoresponder
::(*) While on vacation
::( ) Always

:☑ Reply to all newsletters with "Thank you for the newsletter!"

:Attachment limit
::( ) 300 KB
::(*) 1.4 MB
::( ) 5 MB (Beta)

:Default email format
::(*) Plain text
::( ) HTML
::( ) CSS

:☑ Reply to HTML emails with "Whoa, buddy, what's all this code?"

:Character set
::( ) ASCII (Unicode 0-127 only)
::(*) Non-ASCII (Unicode 128+ only)

:Smart autocomplete
::( ) Do not suggest replies
::( ) Suggest replies
::(*) Automatically respond to all emails with suggested reply

:Important emails
::(*) Show
::( ) Hide

:Show unread email count...
::(*) Now
::( ) On my projected day of death

:Signature
::(*) "That's my email. Hope you liked it!"
::( ) None

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Email]]