explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

2428: Mars Landing Video

2021-02-22T19:24:17Z

172.69.33.179:

{{comic
| number = 2428
| date = February 22, 2021
| title = Mars Landing Video
| image = mars_landing_video.png
| titletext = The best part of crashing a Mars briefing is you can get in a full 11 minutes of questions before they can start to respond.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by THE WORST SKYCRANE. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic plays on the fact that if there is only one of something in a set that one thing is the most/least in that set by lack of comparison. As there is only one full speed video of a Mars landing, that makes the video the worst one. He then asks if nasa is planning to make a worse Mars landing video which is silly because people generally don't intend to make something worse.

This comic was published shortly before a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYQwuYZbA6o NASA press conference] that showed, as mentioned in the comic, the first ever full-speed video of a Mars landing.

Randall has made several comic strips about getting [[:Category:Banned from conferences|banned from conferences]], but apparently he has decided to flout his ban this time for some reason. (Or maybe he always tries to flout the ban, but has never been successful before, until he used a skycrane.) Bursting into the conference via skycrane is ironic because that is also how ''Perseverance'' was lowered to the surface.

The title text refers to the 11-minute communications delay between Mars and Earth at the time of the rover's landing.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

[Hairbun, standing on a circular stage in front of a podium]

We're excited to share the first ever full-speed video of a mars landing.

[Off-screen character, crashing through the roof on a skycrane]

Doesn't that mean it's also the ''worst'' ever full-speed video of a mars landing?

Do you expect that record to stand forever, or is NASA working on a worse one?

[Bottom text]

NASA tried to ban me from their press briefings, but ironically their security was totally unprepared to deal with a skycrane.

[[Category:Banned from conferences]]
{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Mars rovers]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Hairbun]]

2421: Tower of Babel

2021-02-06T07:36:12Z

172.69.33.179: /* Transcript */ category

{{comic
| number = 2421
| date = February 5, 2021
| title = Tower of Babel
| image = tower_of_babel.png
| titletext = Soon, linguists will be wandering around everywhere, saying things like "colorless green ideas sleep furiously" and "more people have been to Russia than I have," and speech will become unintelligible.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a COLORLESS GREEN IDEA. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

The story of the {{w|Tower of Babel}} is the Biblical explanation for the existence of different languages in the world. In the story, humans endeavor to build a tower reaching heaven. Their arrogance angers God and prompts him to sabotage the project. He does this by "confounding their speech" (commonly interpreted as giving everyone their own language), inhibiting their ability to work together.

In this retelling, however, the tower is actually finished. God is happy to receive the human visitors, and offers them a reward.

The party that ascends to the top of the tower consists of Cueball, Megan and a third figure who might be linguist {{w|Gretchen McCulloch}}, previously seen in [[2381: The True Name of the Bear]]. When Gretchen expresses her love of words, God offers to create a panoply of languages. Megan immediately sees the problems with this, but Gretchen is enthusiastic. Instead of a punishment by God, linguistic diversity is presented as a well-intended challenge.

{{w|Phonology}}, a part of linguistics, is the study of the sound system used in a language or dialect, or of the systems that languages use to organize sounds. {{w|b:Conlang/Advanced/Grammar/Alignment|Morphosyntactic alignment}} is the grammatical relationship between the noun arguments to a verb — for example, between the two arguments (in English, the subject and object) of transitive verbs like ''the dog chased the cat'', and the single argument of intransitive verbs like ''the cat ran away''.

The title text presents two meaningless English-language phrases that illustrate the language's ability to convey confusing or paradoxical information. "{{w|Colorless green ideas sleep furiously}}", coined by linguist {{w|Noam Chomsky}} in 1957, is an example of a sentence that is structurally correct but contains paradoxes and meaningless comparisons: something cannot be both colorless AND green (see {{w|Invisible Pink Unicorn}}), ideas do not sleep, and sleeping is not generally done furiously. That said, the sentence "colorless green ideas sleep furiously" is so well known in linguistics that a competition to make the sentence meaningful was held in 1985 and {{w|Colorless_green_ideas_sleep_furiously#Attempts_at_meaningful_interpretations|attracted a number of entrants}}.

"More people have been to Russia than I have" is a well-known example of {{w|comparative illusion}}. It sounds like it means something but, upon actual analysis, does not, although it could be interpreted as there being more people to visit Russia than the speaker owns, or has in their household.

==Trivia==
In [[2381: The True Name of the Bear]], sentences spoken by Gretchen McCulloch do not have periods at their ends, a fact which she mentioned on Twitter. However, in this comic, she uses periods, so her previous periodlessness might be a coincidence and not a trait of her character on xkcd.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
[Cueball, Gretchen McCulloch and Megan are standing at the base of the Tower of Babel.]
:Cueball: The Tower of Babel is complete!
:Megan: Let's go meet God!

[Cueball, Gretchen McCulloch and Megan are now standing at the top of the Tower of Babel. God is represented by an off-panel voice coming from the top of the panel.]
:Cueball: Hi God!
:God: Wow, nice tower!
:God: You did a great job! I'm so proud!
:Megan: Thanks!

:God: I'm going to give you a reward.
:God: What do you like about the world?
:Gretchen McCulloch: Hmm. Words are really cool.
:Megan: No, wait-

:God: Great! I'm going to give you lots of languages to study, each with its own phonology, word ordering, morphosyntactic alignment...
:Gretchen McCulloch: YESSSSSS!
:Megan: We should not have brought a linguist.
{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]]
[[Category:Language]]

982: Set Theory

2020-12-02T23:56:27Z

172.69.33.179: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 982
| date = November 25, 2011
| title = Set Theory
| image = set_theory.png
| titletext = Proof of Zermelo's well-ordering theorem given the Axiom of Choice: 1: Take S to be any set. 2: When I reach step three, if S hasn't managed to find a well-ordering relation for itself, I'll feed it into this wood chipper. 3: Hey, look, S is well-ordered.
}}

==Explanation==
This comic is a pun on the phrase "{{w|Proof by Intimidation}}" which normally is a jocular term used mainly in mathematics. It refers to a style of presenting a purported mathematical proof by giving an argument loaded with jargon and appeals to obscure results, so that the audience is simply obliged to accept it, lest they have to admit to their ignorance and lack of understanding.

However, in this comic, "Proof by Intimidation" is taken to mean that by intimidating the elements within a set, they will conform to the proof (or, as the title text says, they will become "well-ordered"). This is accomplished by believing that the elements can be {{w|anthropomorphize}}d such that they feel fear. The idea of executing as an example was exemplified by Sun Tzu in the ancient book {{w|The Art Of War}}.

This interpretation of the term "Proof by Intimidation" bears great resemblance to {{w|Argumentum ad baculum|argument from the stick}}, which is a fallacious form of reasoning of the form
1. If not P, I will do you harm.
2. Therefore, P.
This form of fallacy has the distinction, if properly applied, of never being called out as fallacious. Ponytail, however, is threatening the proposition itself, rather than her audience, bringing a level of absurdity to the situation.

The {{w|axiom of choice}} (which has been referenced previously in [[804: Pumpkin Carving]]) says that given any collection of bins, each containing at least one object, it is possible to make a selection of exactly one object from each bin. It was later referenced in the title text of [[1724: Proofs]], another comic about a math class with a similar theme on how teachers teach their student mathematical proofs.

In the title text, the well-ordering theorem states that every set can be well-ordered. A set X is well-ordered by a strict total order if every non-empty subset of X has a least element under the ordering. This is also known as {{w|Zermelo's theorem}} and is equivalent to the Axiom of Choice. The woodchipper is a reference to the 1996 film {{w|Fargo (film)|Fargo}}, where a character uses one to dispose of a body.

It might seem there is another layer to the joke: if you can feed the set to the wood-chipper, that defines an ordering on the set (the order in which the elements are fed to the wood chipper). However, that doesn't actually work, because the resulting ordering is not necessarily well-ordered. For example, consider the set of positive real numbers. You can imagine feeding half a number line to a wood chipper from the end near zero. This defines the standard less-than ordering, but it is not a well-ordering because it does not define a least element. For any positive number x, x/2 went into the wood chipper first. The set may be motivated to find a well-ordering, but it won't be the standard one.

==Transcript==
:[Ponytail stands at a blackboard, facing away from it. She has a pointer in her hand, and written on the blackboard is some set theory math, although one of the set elements is being pointed into a guillotine.]
:Ponytail: The axiom of choice allows you to select one element from each set in a collection
:Ponytail: and have it ''executed'' as an example to the others.

:[Caption below the panel:]
:My math teacher was a big believer in Proof by Intimidation.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Logic]]
[[Category:Puns]]

435: Purity

2020-11-26T02:09:40Z

172.69.33.179: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 435
| date = June 11, 2008
| title = Purity
| image = purity.png
| titletext = On the other hand, physicists like to say physics is to math as sex is to masturbation.
}}

==Explanation==
{{w|Mathematics}} is the abstract study of topics encompassing quantity, structure, space, change, and others. {{w|Physics}} is a natural science that involves the study of matter-energy and its motion through space and time, along with related concepts such as forces. Physics is described using mathematics. {{w|Chemistry}} is the science of matter, especially its chemical reactions, but also its composition, structure and properties. As chemical reactions etc are governed by physical laws (electromagnetism being particularly important), one could say that chemists are studying a subset of physics. {{w|Biology}} is the the study of life and living organisms, including their structure, function, growth, origin, evolution, distribution, and taxonomy. As biological life is the result of a large number of complex chemical reactions, one could say that it is studying a subset of chemistry. {{w|Psychology}} is the study of mental functions and behaviors, why thinking beings do what they do. As thought is (currently) a capability exclusive to living things, one could say that it is a subset of biology. {{w|Sociology}} is the study of society, or, the study of groups of people and their interactions. Since a group of people is composed of many individuals, one could say that it is an application of psychology. Of course, one could also say that the fields are all independent, as deriving one from another would require not only good, but perfect understanding of the more fundamental field.

Mathematics has the classifications {{w|Pure mathematics}} (Mathematics for its own sake, without any real-world interpretation) and {{w|Applied mathematics}} (Mathematics intended to solve real-world problems). It is not uncommon for scientists to formulate a problem which can be reduced to a problem already solved by pure mathematicians. Taking this to its logical extreme, the comic arranges the six scientific fields according to the {{w|Hierarchy of the sciences}}, represented by a person on a chart of purity, saying that a field is 'more pure', than the fields depending on it. This is a topic often used in jokes between scientists of various fields as to who is more important. The physicist, [[Cueball]], feels that he is at the top, that all other fields are based upon his... but is ultimately upstaged by the mathematician, [[Blondie]], whose field is so pure and fundamental that ultimately everything else could be seen as derived from it (with the possible exception of {{w|Logic}}). From a certain point of view, physics is nothing more than the attempt to find the subset of mathematical rules obeyed by the universe we live in. Thus, the mathematician says that she didn't even see any of the other fields standing so far over to the left on the graph. This could be a rhetoric device meant to disparage the other fields, or it could be true, either because this graph exists in physical space and she was too far away to here the conversation, or because she is metaphorically so detached from the real world that she doesn't even understand that the comparison between fields is going on. Assuming she knows that the other fields exist.

The title text indicates physicists like to repeat the following quote attributed to Richard Feynman: “Physics is to math what sex is to masturbation.”

This ties the title of the comic, "Purity", to tie between various fields, to the topic of sex, as measured by the {{w|Purity Test}}."

==Transcript==

:[Six characters are standing on a line with small ticks under each person. Above the two persons most central in the comic is an arrow pointing right. There are labels both above and below the arrow. Beneath each tick is a label. All the labels are listed here in order]
:<big>Fields</big> arranged by <big>purity</big>
:::More pure

:Sociologists
:Psychologists
:Biologists
:Chemists
:Physicists
:Mathematicians

:[Above each of the six tick there is a person. The last person to the right is the mathematician, she stands at the far right edge of the comic, with much further distance between her and the second last person going right. The first four spaces between the first five persons are of equal distance. Except for the least pure sociologist they all say something addressed to the less pure person(s) on their left. The first mute person above the Sociologists tick is Megan. The second person above the Psychologists tick is a bald man with glasses and goatee beard holding a book under one arm. The third person above the Biologists tick is a Cueball-like guy with a squirming octopus in his hand. The fourth person above the Chemists tick is Ponytail holding up a test tube with bubbles coming out of the top. The fifth person above the Physicists tick is Cueball standing with his hands in his sides. Farthest out the final and sixth person above the Mathematicians tick is Blondie. She waves to the other five.]

:Psychologist: Sociology is just applied psychology.

:Biologist: Psychology is just applied biology.

:Chemist: Biology is just applied chemistry

:Physicist: Which is just applied physics. It's nice to be on top.

:Mathematician: Oh, hey, I didn't see you guys all the way over there.

==Trivia==
*Blondie appearing as the mathematician could mean she is supposed to represent [[Miss Lenhart]], but since Lenhart is defined as a teacher, which she can not clearly be said to be here, it is uncertain.
*Later a similar setup was used in [[2057: Internal Monologues]], although here the different science fields are not ranked against each other, and only the physicist is represented in both comics (although as Cueball in both).
*This comic is available as a signed print in the [https://store.xkcd.com/products/signed-prints xkcd store].

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Charts]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Blondie]]
[[Category:Multiple Cueballs]]
[[Category:Science]]
[[Category:Psychology]]
[[Category:Biology]]
[[Category:Chemistry]]
[[Category:Physics]]
[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Sex]]
[[Category:Rankings]]
[[Category:Animals]]
[[Category:Comics with xkcd store products]]

2387: Blair Witch

2020-11-19T02:52:19Z

172.69.33.179: Maryland?

{{comic
| number = 2387
| date = November 19, 2020
| title = Blair Witch
| image = blair_witch.png
| titletext = "Are you concerned the witches won't breed in captivity?" "Honestly, we're more concerned that they WILL. We don't know what it involves, but our biologists theorize that it's 'harrowing.'"
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an INFANT BLAIR WITCH. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

The Blair Witch is a supernatural being whose legend originates in Burkittsville, MD. As was common in Protestant societies at the time, a woman was ostracized from the community on account of {{w|witchcraft}}. This woman, who tends to conflict in name with various versions of the lore, would supposedly attempt to inflict revenge upon the community that exiled her, and these fearful people fled from the town. It is unknown just how much of the legend is true, although it seems quite likely that the woman was not an actual witch{{Citation needed}}.

The comic takes a humorous turn on the legend, suggesting that the Blair Witch is instead a separate species that is being tracked by the IUCN. With the rise of cell phones in the modern age, citings of beings that are most likely fictitious (other examples being Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster) are becoming rarer over time, due to lack of credibility. A species which has not been documented for a long time would indeed be moved to the "Possibly extinct in the wild" category, as Megan notes.

In attempting to understand this in a way that does not involve refuting the existence of the Blair Witch, Megan cites {{w|habitat loss}} as the reason why encountering a Blair Witch might be more difficult. Habitat loss is in fact one of the most prominent and concerning reasons for extinction in recent years. Megan claims that suburban projects have fragmented her "spooky forest" ecosystem, a reference to the many species that are dying off due to encroachment, logging, and similar human activities.

Megan then proposes a plan to catch and breed Blair Witches in an attempt to resurrect the species. This final panel is more obviously humorous, as even if the Blair Witch ''did'' exist separate from humans, there is only one, and thus any attempt to breed and repopulate would be futile. The phrase 'Blair Witch Reintroduction Project' is a reference to the 1999 film 'Blair Witch Project'.

The title-text suggests that the comic is a lecture, as Megan's board and pointer would suggest. The (presumed) student asks whether Megan is concerned that witches won't breed in captivity (a serious real-world hindrance to the IUCN). Megan replies by stating that she secretly hopes that there ''won't'' be any breeding; the most sensible comment of the whole comment, she explains that biologists call the witch "harrowing" (presumably because they have captured the Blair Witch and it has set a curse on their laboratory as she supposedly did in Burkittsville.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

{{comic discussion}}

Talk:881: Probability

2020-11-17T17:38:49Z

172.69.33.179: TEN YEARS

I've been through this, even though it was a little over a year ago, this strip brings me back to how I tried to rationalise the probabilities to deal with the news, and the only thing I could think of was "I want a better number, god, noodle-monster, anybody, please, give me a better number".

John [[Special:Contributions/60.225.31.6|60.225.31.6]] 00:40, 28 September 2013 (UTC)

Can anyone please provide an update to this page on Randall's fiance's health? Apologies if this is common knowledge.
I agree with John's reaction. I wanted a better number for my wife back in the spring of 2008, and got it. She survived 3 years instead of the (then) predicted average of six months for inflammatory breast cancer. We could have been just an outlier on the low probability end of the curve, but I like to think the medical community is continually improving their curves, and I am very grateful for the extra time. She passed away four days after this strip was posted - which explains why I haven't seen this strip until now.

[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.228|108.162.216.228]] 21:26, 28 November 2013 (UTC)Grant

So, how is this incomplete? Can we remove the incompleteness mark? --[[Special:Contributions/173.245.53.196|173.245.53.196]] 13:02, 19 January 2014 (UTC)

I think the linking to the blog post is more sensitive than explaining it here. Remove tag? --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.207|141.101.98.207]] 14:19, 19 January 2014 (UTC)

What is the dashed line? It kind of looks like it might be the derivative of the solid line.[[Special:Contributions/108.162.214.53|108.162.214.53]] 00:39, 20 January 2014 (UTC)

I think I explained the dashed line, it's a hazard function or at least it would be a plausible hazard function for that kind of survival function. Feel free to improve the formatting or remove the incomplete tag. --[[User:Artod|Artod]] ([[User talk:Artod|talk]]) 07:06, 20 January 2014 (UTC)

TEN YEARS [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.179|172.69.33.179]] 17:38, 17 November 2020 (UTC)

94: Profile Creation Flowchart

2020-11-13T06:19:58Z

172.69.33.179: /* Explanation */ Natalie Dee

{{comic
| number = 94
| date = April 26, 2006
| title = Profile Creation Flowchart
| image = profile_flowchart.jpg
| titletext = This one goes out to xxCrazyPixie1987xx
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|The title text isn't explained.}}
{{w|AIM_(software)|AIM}} (short for AOL Instant Messenger, now defunct) offered its users profile pages to share info about themselves or their friends. Randall notes that these pages fall into one of three categories:

*People without friends or significant others who linked to their {{w|LiveJournal}} (a blogging service popular in the early 2000s);
*People with friends and significant others who would celebrate their relationship all over their page;
*People with friends who would fill their profile with inside jokes only their friends could understand.

Both AIM and LiveJournal were known for their teenage user base, as shown by the title text's fictional AIM screen name.

The title text seems to reference the kind of behavior someone with a tribute page would display, but is actually an example of an inside joke, for cartoonists. The text comes from [http://www.nataliedee.com/index.php?date=010806 Natalie Dee Comic 956, from January 8, 2006], a few months before this XKCD comic was published on April 26 of the same year.

==Transcript==
[A flowchart is shown.]
:Have Friends? → No → Link to your LiveJournal
:Have Friends? → Yes, and want to alienate everyone else → Inside jokes!
:Have Friends? → Yes → Have Boyfriend/ Girlfriend? →
::No → Angsty about it? →
:::Yes → Link to your LiveJournal
:::No → Yes you are → Angsty about it?
::Yes → A profile tribute is the greatest possible expression of love.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Flowcharts]]
[[Category:Internet]]
[[Category:Social networking]]

Talk:2383: Electoral Precedent 2020

2020-11-11T00:49:15Z

172.69.33.179: r

Can anyone identify the faded background text in the 2016 panel?

Is there some shadow text behind the main text in the 2016 square? I can barely make it out.
It looks like "No nominee whose first name contains a "k" has lost", which would be the same from the 1122 comic.
[[User:ChunyangD|ChunyangD]] ([[User talk:ChunyangD|talk]]) 00:54, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

It's the alternative text from the 2016 one: "No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost." [[Special:Contributions/172.69.235.143|172.69.235.143]] 00:58, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

I'm quite sure that Obama did in fact have a campaign website in 2008 when he was a challenger. See http://www.4president.us/websites/2008/barackobama2008website.htm [[User:Bobjr|Bobjr]] ([[User talk:Bobjr|talk]]) 01:15, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:I think "challenger" means that they're going against the incumbent. Obama was up against McCain, who wasn't an incumbent. [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 01:31, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

How much do we want the explanation for this one to repeat what is in that of 1122?--[[User:Troy0|Troy0]] ([[User talk:Troy0|talk]]) 01:19, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:We shouldn't. If the explanation of 1122 is missing something it should be added there. [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 08:21, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

Didn't Clinton win after being impeached? [[User:Alcatraz ii|Alcatraz ii]] ([[User talk:Alcatraz ii|talk]]) 01:21, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:Yes, he was impeached during his first term. [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 01:31, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:: No, this is not true, Clinton was impeached during his 2nd term, in 1998, and he was not eligible for a 3rd term. George W. Bush won the following presidential election in 2000. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.34.42|172.69.34.42]] 01:35, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

You could also say Joe was the first President with a rescue dog [[User:Squire80513|Squire80513]] ([[User talk:Squire80513|talk]]) 01:57, 10 November 2020 (UTC)Squire80513
:Does not Lyndon B Johnson's dog, Yuki, count? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.159.128|162.158.159.128]] 02:30, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
::LBJ's Yuki was a "rescue" (found wandering aimlessly around a gas station) but not a "shelter" dog. Joe's dog is the first first canine from a shelter. It's subtle distinction that many repeating the statistic miss [[User:MAP|MAP]] ([[User talk:MAP|talk]]) 03:08, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

Point of order, why is Biden being referred to as president elect? I was under the impression that the term shouldn't be used until the dispute is resolved. With several pending legal cases and the votes uncertified by the states. -172.69.170.142 3:45 11/10/20 {{template:unsigned IP|172.69.170.142|03:45, 10 November 2020}}
: All major media sources have called the race for Biden as of Saturday, November 8th. XKCD, and this wiki, will follow the lead of the Associated Press or New York Times, both of whom say the race has concluded and Joe Biden is the president elect. -162.158.62.93 4:38 11/10/20 {{template:unsigned IP|162.158.62.93|04:38, 10 November 2020}}
:: Except for one of the most trusted- RealClearPolitics.com still has Pennsylvania up for grabs due to lawsuits and is about to move Michigan back into play after a poll worker claimed that a delivery of Biden-only votes came into a Detroit counting room at 3:30 am on November 4.[[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 14:26, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
::: Your assertion of trust without reason comes across as fake news; however, I checked the web.archive.org history for realclearpolitics.com, and it has over a decade of history. I also visited the site and at a cursor glance it might have rational articles from both political sides, which seems commendable. If it is actually trustworthy, why didn't you explain that it is and why it is, given the current news environment? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.77|162.158.62.77]] 14:53, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:::: My bad, I had assumed that the trio of sites covering the electoral college, 270toWin, RealClearPolitics, and 538 were all well known and respected sites by now, after having played a big role in the last 4 elections. [[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 15:25, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:: Not only that, but A) while "the votes uncertified by the states" may influence the exact total, they can't make Trump win, B) a Trump victory would require that ALL legal cases are resolved in Trump's favor (depending on uncertified votes) and C) the Republican party asked to Trump to concede victory, meaning that nobody with political experience believes those legal cases have a chance of success. The only unknown point is the result of the EC election, but it is naturally assumed they will vote for the elected candidate.[[Special:Contributions/172.69.55.104|172.69.55.104]] 08:29, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
: "Presumptive president elect" would be more accurate (and I say this as someone that voted for Biden). --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.72|108.162.219.72]] 10:06, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

I don't understand how the statement for 1876 could have been true: if J.Q. Adams won in 1824 without a popular majority, then his opponent won the majority and still lost, so Tilden couldn't have been the first in 1876 to win the majority and lose?[[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.38|141.101.98.38]] 08:54, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
: Simple: there were more than two candidates. In 1824, there were four candidates who each got over 10% of the vote. That's how Adams could win without the majority, without one of his opponents then having the majority. (In fact, Jackson had the plurality of the votes, but not the majority, but Adams was elected by the House.) --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.74|141.101.98.74]] 11:30, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
::Thanks![[Special:Contributions/162.158.159.96|162.158.159.96]] 16:57, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:::More details: {{w|1824 United States presidential election}}. Jackson only got about 41% of the popular vote (in states that had one -- not all did back then), and 99 out of 261 electoral votes (~38%). Nobody got enough votes in enough states for an electoral majority, so the election went to Congress. --[[User:Aaron of Mpls|Aaron of Mpls]] ([[User talk:Aaron of Mpls|talk]]) 00:41, 11 November 2020 (UTC)

Bad with formatting here, but I updated the bit about precedent to include that Trump's raw vote total (approx 71.5 million, also not yet certified) is ''also'' breaking the precedent set by Obama in 2008. Love them or hate them, in this high-turnout election, both major party candidates had record numbers for their raw vote totals. Trump doesn't make it to first place above Obama because Biden makes it to first place above Trump. I didn't look into whether the percentage of eligible population numbers are different, but higher turnout combined with higher population makes breaking that barrier a little easier.[[Special:Contributions/108.162.238.5|108.162.238.5]] 13:02, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:Especially since poll workers were caught on camera in Wisconsin putting Trump Votes upside-down into the scanner, but scanning Biden votes correctly.[[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 14:26, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
::How was this discovered? How can we hunt down more occurrences? Did the machine reject the ballots and the people fix the error? (and what are the ramifications of a camera recording vote ballots?) There is no reason to not suspect the opposite happens too: that anybody's votes could be put in upside down. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.77|162.158.62.77]] 14:55, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
:::It's part of the lawsuit based on a complaint from an observer. But there is an easy way to track down and correct this problem on both sides- hold a recount.[[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 15:25, 10 November 2020 (UTC)
::::I have not found a reference to any current Wisconsin lawsuit. Seems like you should either document the claims or delete them.[[Special:Contributions/172.68.174.126|172.68.174.126]] 23:13, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

Honestly, the outcome's still not 100%, so, if, by some stroke of (bad?) luck, Trump becomes president again, then the precedents might change.- another user

Is it just me, or is Randall using this comic as an excuse to throw some shade on Trump? The two squares about Trump are "he has no military experience or political experience" and "he got impeached and then lost." He could've picked more neutral things (his age perhaps, or his appearance on WWE or something) so these choices seem pretty deliberate and, pointed, shall we say? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.63.183|172.69.63.183]] 00:13, 11 November 2020 (UTC)
:It's still in keeping with the other 'serious' precedents in prior elections, like not winning without a specific state, or having/not having certain experience. --[[User:Aaron of Mpls|Aaron of Mpls]] ([[User talk:Aaron of Mpls|talk]]) 00:41, 11 November 2020 (UTC)

== Table ==

If you really feel the need to explain every item in a table then please do so in comic 1122 as this is the original. [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 18:25, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

I removed the redundant options, sorry - user who made table (...Unsigned)
: When I changed the word from "Redundant" (I know what you meant, just that's not quite right) I was hoping to #anchor the link to the prior comic exactly upon the new(?) section someone set up with the previously-relevent lines of table. But it turns out there's only two href="#..."s on that page, and no section titles are given that honour (unlike, say, wikipedia's Table Of Contents entries) I don't want to try to mess with the expkcd wiki at that level of things, but I think it'd be slightly more useful to set that up than it would cost in effort (i.e. a slightly larger version of 'barely'). That's my suggestion, anyway. Just putting it out there. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.216|141.101.98.216]] 23:52, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

== Is there some joke to trump being impeached? ==

I thought he was acquitted, I checked wikipedia and they say he was acquitted. I'm not American if this is some in joke in America you guys may need to explain it.
Thank you :)
[[Special:Contributions/108.162.250.87|108.162.250.87]] 00:30, 11 November 2020 (UTC)
: "Impeached" in the technical sense of the word is being "charged", so Trump was impeached by the US House of Representatives. However, he was not "convicted", but he was acquitted of his crimes by the Senate. No US president has ever been "convicted" and removed from office, but several have been impeached, including Trump. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.179|172.69.33.179]] 00:49, 11 November 2020 (UTC)

2383: Electoral Precedent 2020

2020-11-10T19:49:09Z

172.69.33.179: /* Table of New Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 2383
| date = November 9, 2020
| title = Electoral Precedent 2020
| image = electoral_precedent_2020.png
| titletext = He also broke the streak that incumbents with websites are unbeatable and Delawareans can't win, creating a new precedent: Only someone from Delaware can defeat an incumbent with a website.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an UNBEATABLE DELAWAREAN WITH A WEBSITE. Please explain how. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic is an update to [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], adding "broken precedents" for the US presidential elections in 2016 and 2020. The majority of the comic's panels are duplicates from 1122, with the exception of the 2012 panel (modified to show that Obama did in fact break the streak), the 2016 panel (added to reflect the election of Donald Trump), and the two 2020 panels.

The final two panels again show how the 'precedent' have side conditions that influenced these precedents:
* No sitting president who was impeached was nominated for the office again... until Donald Trump. (Bill Clinton was the last president who was impeached, but he was not eligible for re-election due to term limits; before that, Nixon wasn't impeached but resigned from office; before that, Johnson was seeking re-election but lost in the primaries against Seymour) 
* The last time a challenger beat an incumbent was in 1992 when websites weren't nearly as predominant as now and Randall assumes the 1992 Clinton campaign not to have a website. By 1996 that had changed and both the incumbent [http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/websites/cg96/ Bill Clinton campaign] and the challenger [http://www.dolekemp96.org/main.htm Bob Dole campaign] had websites that look very simple by today's standards. There is no 'curse' on using websites. 

The 2020 election is also precedent-breaking in a few ways that Randall didn't mention:
* Biden received over 76 million votes, the highest ever, beating Obama 2008's previous record of just under 69.5 million votes. The second highest raw vote total was for Trump, with approximately 71.5 million votes, ''also'' beating Obama 2008. Turnout as a percentage of the eligible population was the highest in over a century. Consequently (especially as total population has also been rising), both major parties' raw vote totals smash previous precedents.
* At 78, Joe Biden will be the oldest president ever on the day of his inauguration.
* Biden's running mate Kamala Harris will be the first-ever female vice president, first Black vice president, and first vice president of Indian descent. A Californian, she'll also be the first Democratic president or vice president from the West.

The title text continues the theme of websites, by stating that no incumbent with a website had ever lost. Also, Biden is the first president from the state of Delaware, thus he broke the "precedent" that Delawareans can't win. Randall then proceeds to combine these 2 facts to create a new precedent: Only Delawareans can defeat incumbents with a website.

==Table of New Broken Precedents==

Redundant options can be found at [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1122:_Electoral_Precedent 1122]

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Validity !! Explanation

|-
|2012
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. ... Until Obama did. (Updated)
|
|
|-
|2016
|No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did.
|
|
|-
|2020?
|No one has won after being impeached. ✓
|
|
|-
|2020?
| No challenger with a website has won. X
|
|
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:<nowiki>★</nowiki> Updated for 2020 ★

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. ... Until Obama did.
:2016... No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did.
:2020? No one has won after being impeached. <big>✓</big>
:2020? No challenger with a website has won. <big>X</big>

:[Caption below the comic]
:Congratulations to President-Elect Joe Biden for breaking the website curse!

==Errors==
*This comic seems to have used the same image as [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], and so under the 2016 panel there is the ghost image of the original 2012 2nd "streak": "No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost."

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics with color]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-10T19:47:18Z

172.69.33.179: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Validity || Explanation
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| True
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_Continental_Congress president], Washington is the first president of the US
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| True
| Washington is the first person who had a second term.
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| True
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| True
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alien_and_Sedition_Acts Alien and Sedition acts]
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
|
|
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
|
|
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
|
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| True
| However, despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
|
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
|
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
|
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
|
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
|
|
|-
|1840
|No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
|
|
|-
|1844
|No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
|
|
|-
|1848
|The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
|
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
|
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|
|
|-
|1896
|Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
|
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
|
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost.
|
|
|-
|Title text
|No white guy who's been mentioned on twitter has gone on to win.
|
|
|}

==Transcript==
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-10T19:44:04Z

172.69.33.179: added link and add some validity

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Validity || Explanation
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| True
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_Continental_Congress president], Washington is the first president of the US
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| True
| Washington is the first person who had a second term.
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| True
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| True
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alien_and_Sedition_Acts Alien and Sedition acts]
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
|
|
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
|
|
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
|
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| True
| However, despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
|
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
|
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
|
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
|
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
|
|
|-
|1840
|No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
|
|
|-
|1844
|No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
|
|
|-
|1848
|The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
|
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
|
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|
|
|-
|1896
|Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
|
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
|
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost.
|
|
|}

==Transcript==
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-10T19:42:32Z

172.69.33.179: /* Table of Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Validity || Explanation
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
|
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation, Washington is the first president of the US
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| True
| Washington is the first person who had a second term.
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| True
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| True
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alien_and_Sedition_Acts Alien and Sedition acts]
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
|
|
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
|
|
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
|
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| True
| However, despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
|
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
|
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
|
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
|
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
|
|
|-
|1840
|No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
|
|
|-
|1844
|No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
|
|
|-
|1848
|The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
|
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
|
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|
|
|-
|1896
|Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
|
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
|
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost.
|
|
|}

==Transcript==
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

2383: Electoral Precedent 2020

2020-11-10T19:41:40Z

172.69.33.179: /* Table of New Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 2383
| date = November 9, 2020
| title = Electoral Precedent 2020
| image = electoral_precedent_2020.png
| titletext = He also broke the streak that incumbents with websites are unbeatable and Delawareans can't win, creating a new precedent: Only someone from Delaware can defeat an incumbent with a website.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an UNBEATABLE DELAWAREAN WITH A WEBSITE. Please explain how. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic is an update to [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], adding "broken precedents" for the US presidential elections in 2016 and 2020. The majority of the comic's panels are duplicates from 1122, with the exception of the 2012 panel (modified to show that Obama did in fact break the streak), the 2016 panel (added to reflect the election of Donald Trump), and the two 2020 panels.

The final two panels again show how the 'precedent' have side conditions that influenced these precedents:
* No sitting president who was impeached was nominated for the office again... until Donald Trump. (Bill Clinton was the last president who was impeached, but he was not eligible for re-election due to term limits; before that, Nixon wasn't impeached but resigned from office; before that, Johnson was seeking re-election but lost in the primaries against Seymour) 
* The last time a challenger beat an incumbent was in 1992 when websites weren't nearly as predominant as now and Randall assumes the 1992 Clinton campaign not to have a website. By 1996 that had changed and both the incumbent [http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/websites/cg96/ Bill Clinton campaign] and the challenger [http://www.dolekemp96.org/main.htm Bob Dole campaign] had websites that look very simple by today's standards. There is no 'curse' on using websites. 

The 2020 election is also precedent-breaking in a few ways that Randall didn't mention:
* Biden received over 76 million votes, the highest ever, beating Obama 2008's previous record of just under 69.5 million votes. The second highest raw vote total was for Trump, with approximately 71.5 million votes, ''also'' beating Obama 2008. Turnout as a percentage of the eligible population was the highest in over a century. Consequently (especially as total population has also been rising), both major parties' raw vote totals smash previous precedents.
* At 78, Joe Biden will be the oldest president ever on the day of his inauguration.
* Biden's running mate Kamala Harris will be the first-ever female vice president, first Black vice president, and first vice president of Indian descent. A Californian, she'll also be the first Democratic president or vice president from the West.

The title text continues the theme of websites, by stating that no incumbent with a website had ever lost. Also, Biden is the first president from the state of Delaware, thus he broke the "precedent" that Delawareans can't win. Randall then proceeds to combine these 2 facts to create a new precedent: Only Delawareans can defeat incumbents with a website.

==Table of New Broken Precedents==

Redundant options can be found at [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1122:_Electoral_Precedent 1122]

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Validity !! Explanation

|-
|2016
|No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did.
|
|
|-
|2020?
|No one has won after being impeached. ✓
|
|
|-
|2020?
| No challenger with a website has won. X
|
|
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:<nowiki>★</nowiki> Updated for 2020 ★

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. ... Until Obama did.
:2016... No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did.
:2020? No one has won after being impeached. <big>✓</big>
:2020? No challenger with a website has won. <big>X</big>

:[Caption below the comic]
:Congratulations to President-Elect Joe Biden for breaking the website curse!

==Errors==
*This comic seems to have used the same image as [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], and so under the 2016 panel there is the ghost image of the original 2012 2nd "streak": "No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost."

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics with color]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-10T19:41:06Z

172.69.33.179: /* Table of Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Validity || Explanation
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
|
| Technically the Articles of Confederation had a president of Continental Congress, but Washington is the first president of the US
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
|
| Washington is the first person who had a second term.
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
|
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
|
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alien_and_Sedition_Acts Alien and Sedition acts]
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
|
|
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
|
|
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
|
|
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
|
| However, despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, just false teeth.
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
|
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
|
|
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
|
|
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
|
|
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
|
|
|-
|1840
|No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
|
|
|-
|1844
|No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
|
|
|-
|1848
|The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
|
|
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|
|
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
|
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|
|
|-
|1896
|Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
|
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
|
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost.
|
|
|}

==Transcript==
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

2383: Electoral Precedent 2020

2020-11-10T19:37:47Z

172.69.33.179: /* Errors */

{{comic
| number = 2383
| date = November 9, 2020
| title = Electoral Precedent 2020
| image = electoral_precedent_2020.png
| titletext = He also broke the streak that incumbents with websites are unbeatable and Delawareans can't win, creating a new precedent: Only someone from Delaware can defeat an incumbent with a website.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an UNBEATABLE DELAWAREAN WITH A WEBSITE. Please explain how. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic is an update to [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], adding "broken precedents" for the US presidential elections in 2016 and 2020. The majority of the comic's panels are duplicates from 1122, with the exception of the 2012 panel (modified to show that Obama did in fact break the streak), the 2016 panel (added to reflect the election of Donald Trump), and the two 2020 panels.

The final two panels again show how the 'precedent' have side conditions that influenced these precedents:
* No sitting president who was impeached was nominated for the office again... until Donald Trump. (Bill Clinton was the last president who was impeached, but he was not eligible for re-election due to term limits; before that, Nixon wasn't impeached but resigned from office; before that, Johnson was seeking re-election but lost in the primaries against Seymour) 
* The last time a challenger beat an incumbent was in 1992 when websites weren't nearly as predominant as now and Randall assumes the 1992 Clinton campaign not to have a website. By 1996 that had changed and both the incumbent [http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/websites/cg96/ Bill Clinton campaign] and the challenger [http://www.dolekemp96.org/main.htm Bob Dole campaign] had websites that look very simple by today's standards. There is no 'curse' on using websites. 

The 2020 election is also precedent-breaking in a few ways that Randall didn't mention:
* Biden received over 76 million votes, the highest ever, beating Obama 2008's previous record of just under 69.5 million votes. The second highest raw vote total was for Trump, with approximately 71.5 million votes, ''also'' beating Obama 2008. Turnout as a percentage of the eligible population was the highest in over a century. Consequently (especially as total population has also been rising), both major parties' raw vote totals smash previous precedents.
* At 78, Joe Biden will be the oldest president ever on the day of his inauguration.
* Biden's running mate Kamala Harris will be the first-ever female vice president, first Black vice president, and first vice president of Indian descent. A Californian, she'll also be the first Democratic president or vice president from the West.

The title text continues the theme of websites, by stating that no incumbent with a website had ever lost. Also, Biden is the first president from the state of Delaware, thus he broke the "precedent" that Delawareans can't win. Randall then proceeds to combine these 2 facts to create a new precedent: Only Delawareans can defeat incumbents with a website.

==Table of New Broken Precedents==

Redundant options can be found at [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1122:_Electoral_Precedent 1122]

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation

|-
|2016
|No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did.
|
|-
|2020?
|No one has won after being impeached. ✓
|
|-
|2020?
| No challenger with a website has won. X
|
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:<nowiki>★</nowiki> Updated for 2020 ★

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. ... Until Obama did.
:2016... No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did.
:2020? No one has won after being impeached. <big>✓</big>
:2020? No challenger with a website has won. <big>X</big>

:[Caption below the comic]
:Congratulations to President-Elect Joe Biden for breaking the website curse!

==Errors==
*This comic seems to have used the same image as [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], and so under the 2016 panel there is the ghost image of the original 2012 2nd "streak": "No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost."

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics with color]]

2383: Electoral Precedent 2020

2020-11-10T02:00:05Z

172.69.33.179: /* Explanation */ not 80

{{comic
| number = 2383
| date = November 9, 2020
| title = Electoral Precedent 2020
| image = electoral_precedent_2020.png
| titletext = He also broke the streak that incumbents with websites are unbeatable and Delawareans can't win, creating a new precedent: Only someone from Delaware can defeat an incumbent with a website.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an UNBEATABLE DELAWAREAN WITH A WEBSITE. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic is an update to [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], adding "broken precedents" for the US presidential elections in 2016 and 2020.

The final two panels again show how the 'precedent' have side conditions that influenced these precedents:
* No sitting president who was impeached, was nominated for the office again... until Donald Trump. (Bill Clinton was the last president who was impeached, but he was not eligible for re-election due to term limits.) Given his supporters, the fact that he was impeached did not influence many voters..
* The last time a challenger beat an incumbent, at all, was in 1992 when websites weren't nearly as predominant than now. Having at least a single website actually increases the likelihood to beat an opponent [citation needed]. So there is no 'curse' on using websites. Also, virtually every candidate has a website nowadays, so it is unlikely to swing anything.

The 2020 election is also precedent-breaking in a few ways that Randall didn't mention:
* Biden received over 76 million votes, the highest ever. Turnout as a percentage of the eligible population was the highest in over a century.
* At 78, Joe Biden will be the oldest president ever on the day of his inauguration.
* Biden's running mate Kamala Harris will be the first ever female vice president, first Black vice president, and first vice president of Indian descent. A Californian, she'll also be the first Democratic president or vice president from the West.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

<nowiki>*</nowiki> Updated for 2020 *

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. ... Until Obama did.
:2016... No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did. (No nominee whose first name contains a 'K' has lost.)
:2020? No one has won after being impeached.
:2020? No challenger with a website has won.

:[Caption below the comic]
:Congratulations to President-Elect Joe Biden for breaking the website curse!

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics with color]]