Talk:3007: Probabilistic Uncertainty

2024-11-05T07:35:45Z

172.71.22.120:

Emotional spirals are useless. I've been coping by pretending we're in scenario 1, it keeps me sane. If I'm wrong, I'll jump off that bridge when we come to it. [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 20:23, 4 November 2024 (UTC)
:And I have a friend whose strategy is baking. It's both therapeutic and delicious. [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 20:41, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

:I see I don't know US geography well: which bridge you can jump from to leave it? -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 02:34, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

I can't help but think that at preparing for the negative outcome regardless of which outcome is more likely (unless that outcome is *very* unlikely) is a healthy thing to do. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.147.141|172.71.147.141]] 20:30, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

This comic appeared the day before the 2024 United States Presidential Election. At publication time, polls were strongly suggesting about a 50/50 odds that either major candidate would win. Recent news items included advice from mental-health professionals on how to deal with election-related anxiety. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.167.195|172.71.167.195]] 20:32, 4 November 2024 (UTC)
:Definitely related. This should be in the text, not in the comments, frankly. The yanks are going nuts about the election right now. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.124.243|172.71.124.243]] 20:57, 4 November 2024 (UTC)
:Did the advice suggested narcotics? -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 02:34, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

My personal policy is to expect and prepare for the worst. That way I can be surprised when it doesn't happen, and not surprised when it does, rather than the other way around. I don't "do" emotions, so it's basically just planning and mumbling colloquialisms involving the digestive system... [[Special:Contributions/172.71.134.64|172.71.134.64]] 21:31, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

I can't help but feel that it's mostly Democrats that are anxious, where Trump winning is the bad case. Not being an American I don't have much perspective. Are many Republicans likely to also be anxious, and if so, why? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.60.170|172.69.60.170]] 21:55, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

From what I've seen the ones in public-facing forums seem pretty indifferent. They do talk a lot about election fraud though. {{unsigned ip|172.70.34.117|22:42, 4 November 2024 (UTC)}}

I like that the comic leaves "good" and "bad" open to interpretation.[[Special:Contributions/172.70.211.83|172.70.211.83]] 22:29, 4 November 2024 (UTC)
:He doesn't want to start fights in the comments/discussion pages/replies! Good to see him appealing to no specific demographic in this one. -[[User:Psychoticpotato|P?sych??otic?pot??at???o ]] ([[User talk:Psychoticpotato|talk]]) 22:40, 4 November 2024 (UTC)
::Considering that the "Harris for President" banner is still active, I'm not sure I agree with that. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.22.4|172.68.22.4]] 22:53, 4 November 2024 (UTC)
:::yeah, for that reason i think it's more just so the comic can have further longevity, as this way it can be applied to any number of things with two outcomes, not just the current election [[Special:Contributions/141.101.109.193|141.101.109.193]] 00:02, 5 November 2024 (UTC)
::Well, so far so good ... -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 02:34, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

Re [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=3007:_Probabilistic_Uncertainty&oldid=355799 Further, with regards to N/A - the odds of "precisely" 50/50 are probabilistically zero]: Bear in mind that with the Electoral College system and the fact that only 7 US states are "likely in play," we are talking only hundreds or thousands of realistic possibilities. The odds of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College are far more than 0. One possibility of a tie that is "on the radar" is if the Republicans take Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska (which is very likely to go Democratic) and the Democrats take Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If you consider just the 7 "in play" states but Arizona "flips" from Republican to Democratic, there are 3 combinations that yield a 269-269 tie. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.210.249|172.70.210.249]] 01:29, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

Re '''We contacted several researchers who are experts in emotional spirals to ask them, but none of them were in a state to speak with us''': Is it a stretch to think that the emotional-spiral experts were all "in Puerto Rico" (which is not a state), emotionally speaking? In the last week a supporter of one of the candidates insulted Puerto Rico and by extension, people of Puerto Rico and Puerto Rican descent, causing an emotional uproar all over the inter-tubes. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.90.210|162.158.90.210]] 01:37, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

Created an account just to say this; don't get mad at me but in my opinion, both candidates are equally bad, which has led to a weird sense of calmness in me due to my belief that we'll be equally screwed no matter what, just in different ways. Tbh in my opinion both candidates are in between what their supporters think of them and what their opponents think of them. Please be civil if you reply, no ad hominem please. [[User:BurnV06|BurnV06]] ([[User talk:BurnV06|talk]]) 05:24, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

I think it's funny that so many Democrats are genuinely terrified of the results and spend their days anxiously refreshing 538, whereas Republicans are filled with optimism and already know that the democrats have run the weakest candidate since Dukakis. Ah well, maybe in four years you'll actually get to vote for who leads your ticket instead of having them be appointed by the party elites directly without a vote. ;)

787: Orbiter

2024-07-03T12:09:22Z

172.71.22.120: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 787
| date = September 1, 2010
| title = Orbiter
| image = orbiter.png
| titletext = Normally, the Shuttle can't quite safely reach the orbital inclination required to pass over both those points from a Canaveral launch, but this is an alternate history in which either it launches from Vandenberg or everyone hates the Outer Banks.
}}

==Explanation==
This comic is about disputed territories and {{w|Low Earth orbit|low Earth orbits}}.

In the early days of manned spaceflight and also the {{w|Space Shuttle}} the communication to the {{w|Christopher C. Kraft Jr. Mission Control Center|mission control center}} in Houston required many ground stations all around the Earth. Each station could provide a link for only a few minutes and there were still gaps between them. After 1989/90, when the geostationary {{w|Tracking and data relay satellite|TDRS}} system became fully operational, these ground stations became obsolete.

In this comic [[Cueball]], the main controller at mission control, is planning the next check-in with the Space Shuttle (also called orbiter), which is set to occur at [https://www.google.com/maps/place/32%C2%B000'00.0%22N+35%C2%B030'00.0%22E/@-1.9607689,-49.5389658,3z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d32!4d35.5?hl=en 32.0N 35.5E], approx 20 miles north-east of Jerusalem, over the hotly contested {{w|Israeli–Palestinian conflict|Israeli-Palestinian territories}}. Two off-screen characters start to dispute the ownership of this geographical location and, rather than becoming involved in an argument, Cueball decides to change the check-in location to [https://www.google.com/maps/place/35%C2%B012'00.0%22N+96%C2%B036'00.0%22W/@7.0800073,-69.7878505,3.25z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d35.2!4d-96.6?hl=en 35.2N 96.6W], approximately 50 miles east of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, which he considers to be a neutral, non-disputed location. Unfortunately, another off-screen character, Frank, is being a dick, and he then starts to make the claim that {{w|Greer County, Texas|part of Oklahoma in fact should belong to Texas}}.

In the title text [[Randall]] incorrectly states that the orbiter would require a different orbit to reach both Jerusalem and Oklahoma, which cannot be achieved from a launch at {{w|Kennedy Space Center|Cape Canaveral}}. Thus, Randall proposes that the comic exists in an alternate history in which the Space Shuttles launch from {{w|Vandenberg Space Force Base|Vandenberg}}. This is a reference to the plans to launch shuttles from there before the {{w|Space Shuttle Challenger disaster|Challenger accident}} occurred. After Challenger was lost, the Vandenberg missions were scrapped and Cape Canaveral became the sole launch site for the Space Shuttle. Another possibility in this alternate history is that the rules forbidding orbital launches from Cape Canaveral to a northern direction don't exist, because nobody likes the {{w|Outer Banks}} (which would be in the flight path) and thus don't care about space debris falling on them.

Randall's incorrectness was discussed in many forums and probably based on the wrong assumption that the inclination cannot be higher than the latitude of the launch site (28° at Cape Canaveral). But this is only the optimal inclination, actually all shuttle launches to the {{w|Mir|Mir station}} and the {{w|International Space Station}} did reach an inclination of 51.6°, with the cost of some payload mass. And following the ISS at [http://heavens-above.com/orbit.aspx?satid=25544 Heavens above] when it moves over Israel to the south it will pass over Texas approximately an hour later. Nevertheless this orbit is not possible at the first orbit after a launch in Cape Canaveral.

The title text doesn't mention the region south of Iceland from the beginning of the comic. This is roughly at 64° North or less (if more south) and the distance from the highest possible orbital inclination of 57° from the Cape is 780 km. But even 1,000 km south of Iceland is only the Atlantic Ocean and the nearest landmass is still Iceland, which could explain this vague location.

==Transcript==
:Cueball: Okay, people. The orbiter is passing south of Iceland. The next scheduled check-in will be at 32.0N 35.5E, over the Palestinian territories.
:Off-screen character (left): You mean over the state of Palestine?
:Off-screen character (right): You mean over Israel?
:[Frameless beat panel.]
:Cueball: I've rescheduled the check-in for 35.2N 96.6W, over Oklahoma.
:Frank (off-screen, right): You mean occupied North Texas?
:Cueball: Dammit, Frank.

==Trivia==
*There was also a typo in the title text: It was written ''Vandenburg'' instead of ''Vandenberg''. This was later fixed.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Space]]

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Talk:3007: Probabilistic Uncertainty

787: Orbiter