explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

1281: Minifigs

2025-10-14T14:33:31Z

188.149.51.3: /* Explanation */ Changed unreliable number (4 Billion) to "over 8 billion", see discussion.

{{comic
| number = 1281
| date = October 23, 2013
| title = Minifigs
| image = minifigs.png
| titletext = The LEGO Group is already the world's largest tire manufacturer.
}}

==Explanation==
{{w|Lego minifigure}}s (often abbreviated as ''minifigs'') are tiny plastic people designed by the Danish toy manufacturer {{w|Lego Group|Lego}} as part of their construction toy sets. Since 1978, over eight billion minifigures have been sold, so they have surpassed the human population (which is around 8 billion). The figures resemble simplified humans, often with a yellow skin color and featuring interchangeable body parts, such as legs, torsos, heads, hair, and hats.

The graph depicted in the comic extrapolates the total number of minifigures and compares it to the growth of the {{w|world population}}, which reached 7 billion in March 2012. By the extrapolations of the comic, Lego minifigures will outnumber the human population by 2019. The extrapolation of statistical data has appeared in various xkcd comics, e.g. in [[605: Extrapolating]], [[1007: Sustainable]], and [[1204: Detail]]. However, unlike the other extrapolated scenarios, the prognosis of this comic seems quite likely.

Since Lego is designed to resemble nature and civilization on a miniaturized scale, some sets also contain Lego cars as vehicles for the minifigures. With over 381 million {{w|Lego tire}}s produced for these miniature cars, Lego is already the world's largest manufacturer of tires. This fact is addressed in the title text.

Lego (as of mid-October 2013) calculates they have made 7 billion+ figures. Earlier in 2013, they believed they would surpass the human count in 2014, but revised their numbers on the day this comic was released to what this chart says. (In 2019, there were 7.7 billion people and 7.9 billion minifigs, so this was true.)

Extrapolation and interpolation, often absurd, are [[:Category:Extrapolation|recurrent topics]] on xkcd.

==Transcript==
:[Graph: x-axis 1980, 1990, 2010, 2020; y-axis 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 billions.]
:[Plot-line 1: Number of people in the world.]
:[Plot-line 2: Number of Lego People in the world.]
:[Label above the x-axis at 2013 reads "Today".]
:[Shortly before 2020, both plot lines cross.]

:[Caption below the graph:]
:By 2019, humans will be outnumbered.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Timelines]]
[[Category:Line graphs]]
[[Category:Extrapolation]]

Talk:1281: Minifigs

2025-10-14T14:27:23Z

188.149.51.3:

This is my first time at trying to explain something. Even if it's replaced by a better one, I hope it gets the point across.

Cheers!

[[Special:Contributions/189.186.138.149|189.186.138.149]] 05:34, 23 October 2013 (UTC)
:Your explanation looks good (perhaps somebody changed it, though). I am happy for you. Welcome to.the community. You are the type of people that make wikis great.
:[[User:Zyxuvius|Zyxuvius]] ([[User talk:Zyxuvius|talk]]) 17:06, 23 October 2013 (UTC)

Related question: what is the current population of Teddy bears? And what about Barbies? -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 08:44, 23 October 2013 (UTC)
:Might Mattel be the world's largest shoe maker? [[Special:Contributions/67.51.59.66|67.51.59.66]] 16:06, 23 October 2013 (UTC)

Then we are just waiting for a Wikipedian to remove the comparison of tires manufactures as Wikipedia is not the place for random facts appearing in XKCD comics. [[User:Pmakholm|Pmakholm]] ([[User talk:Pmakholm|talk]]) 10:17, 23 October 2013 (UTC)
::The information in the Wikipedia article on {{w|Lego tire|Lego tires}}, including the random fact that in 2011 it was the world's largest tire manufacturer, has been there since May 2012 [[User:N0lqu|-boB]] ([[User talk:N0lqu|talk]]) 13:30, 23 October 2013 (UTC)

I, for one, welcome our new Lego overlords.[[Special:Contributions/83.227.33.35|83.227.33.35]] 01:16, 24 October 2013 (UTC)

Just a suggestion for discussion: instead of the final phrase of the second paragraph saying "the prognosis of this comic seems quite likely", I think "the prognosis of this comic seems at least possible if not highly likely" as the point of the previous extrapolations is that they were unwarranted/probably impossible, not just unlikely. [[User:Grahame|Grahame]] ([[User talk:Grahame|talk]]) 04:34, 24 October 2013 (UTC)Grahame

I find it extremely surprising (to the point of incredulity) that the human population has been growing linearly [[Special:Contributions/115.111.223.59|115.111.223.59]] 06:19, 24 October 2013 (UTC) FirstTimeUserAmIDoingThisRight?
:The comic is correct, it's nearly linear at that time range. Look here: [https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World_population_%28UN%29.svg world population].--[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 12:11, 24 October 2013 (UTC)
::The graph you link to has a logarithmic scale for population, so the straight lines represent exponential growth. Randall's graph has a linear population scale, so the lines should have the form of an exponential function. [[Special:Contributions/198.91.149.86|198.91.149.86]] 12:47, 24 October 2013 (UTC)
:::Ups, but at that data ranges it doesn't make a big difference. Look at page 21 here: [http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/ppt/paa/PAA_2012_Heilig.pdf UN PDF dokument].--[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 13:28, 24 October 2013 (UTC)

Has Randall taken into account that some of the manufactured lego minifigs have been destroyed? If not, then the number of minifigs should be compared to the number of humans that has ever been born, not only to those still alive today...(Maybe a billion or more of the minifigs have been destroyed?) [[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 17:45, 24 October 2013 (UTC)
:Nice point. The {{w|World_population#Number_of_humans_who_have_ever_lived|Number of humans who have ever lived}} is estimated around 100 billions in total. But Randall compares the "Number of people in the world" with the "Number of Lego People in the world", so a good guess on the number of destroyed minifigs is needed. I think it's more likely about the half of the entire production.--[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 18:56, 24 October 2013 (UTC)
::Not sure that I completely agree. Keep in mind that a thrown out Lego minifigure will continue to exist for thousands of years (the same can be said of a dismembered one) while a buried or dismembered human will decompose within a few generations (with the occasional exception). Given that, it's fair to assume that every minifigure ever created still exists, while only the humans born in the past 200 years continue to do so.[[Special:Contributions/154.20.80.41|154.20.80.41]] 04:20, 25 October 2013 (UTC)
:::Has anyone here actually managed to destroy a minfig? I myself have only ever broken an arm or two, which leaves the minifigure mostly intact. I suppose you could melt it down, but most people who would have a reason to (i.e. to use as ink in a 3D printer) would just buy non-LEGOified plastic, as it's cheaper.[[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.30|108.162.215.30]] 21:30, 9 February 2014 (UTC)
::::Do you still count humans who have been permanently embalmed? (And how do minifigs that have been kragl'd compare?) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.52|162.158.255.52]] 09:36, 23 September 2015 (UTC)

This strikes me as having a curious overlap with {{w|The Simulation Argument}}: If it is possible for technology to ever allow a civilization's members to casually run simulated universes, or even worlds, on their personal computers, then eventually there would be more human beings living in simulated worlds than the real one, meaning that (in an abstract sense that does not really conform strictly with the science of probability) it is more likely that WE are in a simulation, than in the real, original universe containing the simulations. — [[User:Kazvorpal|Kazvorpal]] ([[User talk:Kazvorpal|talk]]) 16:09, 16 December 2016 (UTC)

Is the LEGO Group the largest manufacturer of tires by mass, or just raw numbers? 21:59, 2 June 2021 (UTC)

== Are we out numbered yet? ==

It's 2019 bois and girls. Let's see if they outnumber us. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.246.22|162.158.246.22]] 04:08, 3 January 2019 (UTC)

:They recently celebrated the 40th anniversary of minifigs, but there was no mention in the [http://www.lego.com/en-gb/aboutus/news-room/2018/august/minifigure-40| press release] of how many have been produced to date (unlike the [http://www.lego.com/en-gb/aboutus/news-room/2003/october/lego-minifigure-turns-25| 25th anniversary press release], which makes me wonder whether they are saving this up for a big announcement soon... (If they don't do a press release when the number of minifigs overtakes the human population then they're missing out on some good publicity) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.124|141.101.98.124]] 14:29, 3 January 2019 (UTC)

:Search conducted on 2019-12-30: No new data found to whether or not we are outnumbered yet. Happy new year, everybody. --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.210.58|162.158.210.58]] 14:28, 30 December 2019 (UTC)

:In a 2015 [https://web.archive.org/web/20151014120817/http://cache.lego.com/r/www/r/aboutus/-/media/about%20us/media%20assets%20library/company%20profiles/the_lego_group_company_profile_2015_eng.pdf?l.r2=-1675586477 fact sheet], Lego said they made 5 billion minifigs. In [https://web.archive.org/web/20160304024745if_/https://www.lego.com/en-gb/aboutus/events/annual-result-2015#play-minifigures another report], Lego said that they made 725 million minifigs in 2015. By the end of 2019, that would be 7.9 billion minifigs (assuming constant production). The [https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf UN] says there were 7.8 billion people in the world in 2019. So Randall's prediction for 2019 came true.

:Afraid not chaps, here is a link showing that only four billion by 2020 [https://www.bricksmcgee.com/blog/international-lego-day-lego-facts/ as seen here], so it seems they have yet to outnumber us, here is to another 11-ish years of being dominant! {{unsigned|Jnutlikesxkcd|05:29, 22 July 2024}}

:But that 2020 number directly contradicts LEGO's own 2015 number of "more than 5 billion"... someone is burying the lede. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.174.67|162.158.174.67]] 20:27, 19 September 2024 (UTC)

:The lower number is not from Lego and does not cite a reference. My guess is they have just grabbed a very old number for their "fun facts-list". Or recycled the list repeatedly, they updated that page in 2025 but haven't changed the number since at least 2020. I think the other number seems more reliable since it is an official LEGO report. I will change the article accordingly. [[Special:Contributions/188.149.51.3|188.149.51.3]] 14:27, 14 October 2025 (UTC)

1784: Bad Map Projection: Liquid Resize

2025-08-30T21:16:45Z

188.149.51.3: Removed the section about planar projections since it was a misunderstanding that they were needed.

{{comic
| number = 1784
| date = January 11, 2017
| title = Bad Map Projection: Liquid Resize
| image = bad_map_projection_liquid_resize.png
| titletext = This map preserves the shapes of Tissot's indicatrices pretty well, as long as you draw them in before running the resize.
}}

==Explanation==
This is the first comic in the series of [[:Category:Bad Map Projections|Bad Map Projections]] presenting Bad map projection #107: The Liquid Resize. This turned into a series when [[1799: Bad Map Projection: Time Zones]] (#79), was released just a bit more than a month after this one.

There is no perfect way to draw a map of the world on a flat piece of paper. Each one will introduce a different type of distortion, and the best projection for a given situation is sometimes disputed. [[Randall]] previously explored 12 different projections in [[977: Map Projections]], and expressed his disdain for some types he sees as less efficient but whose users feel superior. None of them are truly perfect as any 2D map projection will always distort in a way the spherical reality, and a map projection that is useful for one aspect (like navigation, geographical shapes and masses visualization, etc.) will not be so for all the others. Local maps of smaller areas can be quite accurate, but the idea of both these map projection comics is to map the entire globe on a flat surface.

There are many other projections than the 12 from the previous map projection comic, and Randall seems to have listed at least 358 under the label "Bad Map Projections." The ''Liquid Resize'' map projection is not only useless for most map applications -- as the size, shape, and position of most countries are very distorted -- but its creation includes two steps which are outright counterproductive.

First, this method needs another map projection as its starting point, thus compounding the problems right off the bat.

Second, the map uses [https://helpx.adobe.com/photoshop/using/content-aware-scaling.html Photoshop's content aware resizing tool], a very questionable choice.{{citation needed}} The content aware resizing tool resizes images by identifying what it thinks are important details and preserving these, while shrinking or stretching less detailed areas. For example, [http://knowyourmeme.com/photos/710073-content-aware-scaling when used on a face], the algorithm detects that the eyes and mouth are important details and tries to keep these in place, while stretching the skin around it. When applied to a map, this means that areas with lots of countries - and therefore lots of detail - such as Europe, West Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean and Central America/the Caribbean are relatively unchanged, while big countries like India, China and the US are very warped. The choices that the resizing tool makes are also dependent on the exact visual features of the original map, such as the choice of not having any topography or infrastructure drawn on, or not including a latitude/longitude grid, so what areas are deemed as unimportant is even more arbitrary than it would be on, say, a photographic picture of the Earth.

[http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/content-aware-scaling Bad content aware scaling] is already a meme. This projection does do a good job, however, of making almost every country clearly visible and indicating which countries are neighbors. Using a Photoshop tool for a task it is not intended for was also used in [[1685: Patch]] where a GNU patch tool was replaced with Adobe Photoshop's patch tool to compile code.

South America would fit into Africa almost as it did in the era of the super-continent {{w|Pangaea}}, but the shape of Brazil is morphed around in preserving the island nation {{w|São Tomé and Principe}}.

{{w|Tissot's indicatrices}} are equally sized small circles overlaid on a globe to show the distortion of a particular map projection; if the map distortion distorts the shapes or areas of countries, it will do the same to the circles. The title text suggests that the shapes of Tissot's indicatrices would be pretty well preserved by the Liquid Resize transformation, 'as long as you draw them in before running the resize'. This is a joke. "Drawing them in before running the resize" means that a different projection would be generated (probably preserving the indicatrices themselves), making the use of the indicatrices meaningless, sort of like cheating. In fact by drawing them small enough there will be no resizing at all.

It is unknown if Randall would include common map projections like those in [[977: Map Projections]] among his "Bad Map Projections". It would be reasonable to do so, since all 2D projections of the surface of a 3D sphere will be bad in certain respects. The next comic's projections ''Time Zones'' has #79, and could be concluded as being less bad than this one, which also seems realistic as that map has a slighly more reasonably use case than this one.

==Transcript==
:[Caption at the top of the panel:]
:Bad map projection #107:
:<big>The <big>Liquid Resize</big></big>
:A political map compressed using Photoshop's content-aware resizing algorithm to cut down on unused blank space

:[Below the caption there is a map of the world divided and colored by political boundaries, with outlines around each continent in black and around each country in dark gray. Antarctica is colored in light gray, bodies of water in white, and countries in pale shades of red, orange, yellow, green, blue, and purple. The map is heavily distorted, with Africa in the center and the other continents curving around it, approximating the bounds of a square with rounded corners. The oceans have been removed but also huge countries like the US, Australia, Brazil, Russia and especially India and Argentina have been heavily distorted while areas in the center with many smaller countries like Africa and Europe is almost unchanged.]

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Bad Map Projections]]