explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

612: Estimation

2015-10-13T03:57:37Z

199.27.128.150: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 612
| date = July 20, 2009
| title = Estimation
| image = estimation.png
| titletext = They could say "the connection is probably lost," but it's more fun to do naive time-averaging to give you hope that if you wait around for 1,163 hours, it will finally finish.
}}

==Explanation==
When moving or copying files using the {{w|File Explorer|Windows Explorer}}, a dialog box opens to inform the user of how many of the files being moved have been moved with an estimate of how long the rest of the files should take. However, this estimate is often subject to seemingly random and extreme changes from a time measured in seconds or minutes to one measured in hours or days. This is because Windows bases its estimate on the latest file transfer rate, which exaggerates short-term fluctuations. For instance, transfers of many small files are generally slower than transfers of a few large files, because of per-file overhead (time spent writing data describing the file's title, location, etc. to the disk). A brief slowdown may cause the system to display that the transfer will take a long time (based on the total amount of data yet be transferred and the current low speed), while a sudden burst of data moved quickly between memory caches will give a time that is much too small.

A better implementation would keep track of the average file transfer rate over the entire operation, which would even out the bumps and give a more accurate estimate. Windows 8 avoids the problem by doing away with the time estimate.

The joke in the comic is the idea that this feature was actually purposely implemented and that the person who did so actually talks like that. He tells some friends on the phone how long it will take for him to arrive at their meeting point. However, like with Windows's estimation feature, he quickly changes his estimate multiple times from the extremes of days to seconds due to small fluctuations in traffic flow (like when he has to stop on a red light and then he speeds up on green).

The title text refers to the fact that if the connection is lost, and data can no longer be transmitted, the estimation just gets larger and larger as time goes on rather than realizing that no data being sent means there is no connection. A behavior that occurs on {{w|Microsoft}} network connections even when the connection is not lost. Kubuntu avoids this problem, but not that of wide fluctuations, by including only the past few seconds in its estimate. If there has been zero progress within the averaging interval, it reports "Stalled".

==Transcript==
:Cueball: I'm just outside town, so I should be there in fifteen minutes.
:Cueball: Actually, it's looking more like six days.
:Cueball: No, wait, thirty seconds.

:The author of the Windows file copy dialog visits some friends.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Computers]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]

Talk:1412: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

2014-08-25T15:04:14Z

199.27.128.150:

Looks like they renamed the Wikipedia article mentioned as "Maple Syrup Urine '''Syndrome'''" to [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maple_syrup_urine_disease Maple Syrup Urine '''Disease'''].[[User:Keavon|Keavon]] ([[User talk:Keavon|talk]]) 05:03, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

This rythmic sounding has to do with metrical <strike>foots</strike> feet, I think. Maybe someone more into it than I can explain...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_%28prosody%29 [[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.164|108.162.229.164]] 05:21, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

: It's just a 4-foot trochaic ("trochaic octameter"?) meter. ^- ^- ^- ^-. Also, I'm curious now, is "foots" the proper plural when discussing meter, or is that just a typo/misunderstanding? [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.150|199.27.128.150]] 06:37, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

:: Oh, right, the plural must be "feet". I just had a brain fart. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.164|108.162.229.164]] 10:23, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

:: It is a trochaic tetrameter. Tetra = 4, octa = 8.[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.38|108.162.216.38]] 12:26, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

::: Right, it's number of feet, not number of syllables. My mistake. [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.150|199.27.128.150]] 15:04, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

: This one is definitely related: http://xkcd.com/856/ --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.104.68|141.101.104.68]] 08:08, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Unless "Gloucester" is two syllables, Randall made a mistake/wanted to see if we're awake.--[[Special:Contributions/108.162.246.224|108.162.246.224]] 06:33, 25 August 2014 (UTC)
:Depending on where you're from, it can be pronounced (quasi-phonetically) as "Glow-ster". [[User:Jarod997|Jarod997]] ([[User talk:Jarod997|talk]]) 13:24, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

: Actually it is. Silly British accents. It's pronounced roughly "Gloss-ter". [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.150|199.27.128.150]] 06:37, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

::In that case, I retract my previous statement and apologize.--[[Special:Contributions/108.162.246.224|108.162.246.224]] 07:20, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

With regards to the roll-over text, mention could be made of the long-running BBC radio show "I'm sorry I haven't a clue" ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27m_Sorry_I_Haven%27t_A_Clue ). It is comedy panel game, and one of the regular rounds is 'One Song to the Tune of Another'. It may be coincidence, but one panellist of the show is Barry Cryer ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Cryer ) who happened to have recorded Purple People Eater... [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.184|141.101.98.184]] 08:26, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Why isn't Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles in the list? [[Special:Contributions/103.22.201.120|103.22.201.120]] 11:41, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

There's a typo in "Quantuum vacuum plasma thruster". [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.184|141.101.98.184]] 12:08, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Dang someone beat me to writing in the transcript. Oh well, you did a much better job than I was doing anyway. =8o) [[User:Jarod997|Jarod997]] ([[User talk:Jarod997|talk]]) 13:24, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Talk:1412: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

2014-08-25T06:37:42Z

199.27.128.150:

Talk:1134: Logic Boat

2014-01-10T04:52:46Z

199.27.128.150:

Fastest solution: Get the goat in the boat, drop the cabbage in the water, row boat across, periodically pushing the cabbage in the direction of the shore with your oars. 1 step. [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.150|199.27.128.150]] 04:52, 10 January 2014 (UTC)

Why not take the boat as well? The goat could drag it around, and you could use it as a makeshift shelter until you finish building a proper house. Also, why does cabbage weigh as much as a goat? [[User:Davidy22|Davidy22]][[User talk:Davidy22|<tt>(talk)</tt>]] 05:50, 14 November 2012 (UTC)
I'd say that the wolf is the only one amongst them he should keep. Seeing as how the wolf doesn't treat Cueball like the goat--i.e. rip him to shreds--and actually fears him enough to even respect the goat in his presence, I'd say that the wolf is well broken-in and might make a good companion. The goat, on the other hand, is just dead weight. (Sure, Cueball could eat her, but that's why he has the cabbage.) [1] Take the cabbage across [2] Return alone [3] Find the goat problem solved--and your friend well-fed [4] Take the wolf across [[Special:Contributions/207.237.164.241|207.237.164.241]] 06:33, 14 November 2012 (UTC)
::I am not the only one, then! I like wolves a lot more than goats. Then again, I simply like wolves. [[User:Greyson|Greyson]] ([[User talk:Greyson|talk]]) 03:48, 15 November 2012 (UTC)
::::They're like puppies! Except instead of love them, you have to occasionally beat the shit out of them to ensure that they continue to fear and respect you. Oh, and instead of love you back, they sometimes physically challenge your authority over the "pack". But yeah, they're all around awesome. [[Special:Contributions/207.237.164.241|207.237.164.241]] 09:42, 15 November 2012 (UTC)
::::::...
::::::I compare such a relationship (especially the "beat up the wolf in order for the wolf to fear you") to [[574:_Swine_Flu|Untoward's relationship with a pig.]] [[User:Greyson|Greyson]] ([[User talk:Greyson|talk]]) 15:03, 19 November 2012 (UTC)
::You're never alone with a goat - ask Alexander Selkirk. [[Special:Contributions/86.25.154.116|86.25.154.116]] 13:03, 25 October 2013 (UTC)
Why would cabbage count towards the total capacity of the boat? Take the wolf and the cabbage, return alone, take the goat.--[[Special:Contributions/69.197.220.27|69.197.220.27]] 08:08, 14 November 2012 (UTC)
::Maybe it's a sentient boat that knows how many passengers/objects are aboard no matter their weight?--[[User:Dangerkeith3000|Dangerkeith3000]] ([[User talk:Dangerkeith3000|talk]]) 16:09, 14 November 2012 (UTC)

The comments describing other shortcuts are really just emphasizing the joke in this comic. The logic puzzle introduces arbitrary constraints and asks the solver to come up with a solution. (This is reminiscent of the classic xkcd on [[356|Nerd Sniping]].) Most normal people would have the responses you listed about the constraints being arbitrary, but the people vulnerable to Nerd Sniping (i.e. nerds) usually are willing to ignore reality to solve a puzzle with artificial constraints. The purpose of the puzzle is to encourage logical thinking. (Maybe I should take the wolf first so it can't eat the goat. Oh, but then the goat would eat the cabbage. But if I take the cabbage first, the wolf would eat the goat. Therefore, I must take the goat first. ... Continue reasoning with trial and error until the puzzle is solved...) However, you correctly are pointing out how artificial the constraints on the puzzle are. In the actual comic, the solution of leaving the wolf behind would come as a humorous surprise to the nerd following along coming up with a solution. [[User:S|S]] ([[User talk:S|talk]]) 00:07, 15 November 2012 (UTC)
::And that would be the long way towards the 'Explanation' section [[Special:Contributions/207.237.164.241|207.237.164.241]] 09:42, 15 November 2012 (UTC)

I see this as a play on the common use of “logical” to mean “consistent implicit goals or values,” as oppose to “consistent with the principles of inference” as in formal logic. For example, it's the former usage we see when Spock in Star Trek II says, “Logic clearly dictates that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few,” or in Star Trek IV, he says, “To hunt a species to extinction is not logical.” You leave the wolf because it’s not logical to hang around wolves longer than necessary –they’re dangerous. Of course, this usage of “logic” is highly relative and subjective (in contrast to formal logic). As some have argued, wolves are not only logical, but awesome. Title text drills home how subjective and relative this use of “logic” is. It’s not logical to take the cabbage because I don’t like cabbage. But I like goats so they “make sense.” --[[User:Emzed|Emzed]] ([[User talk:Emzed|talk]]) 18:40, 30 November 2012 (UTC)

Everybody knows the classic wolf, sheep and cabbage problem, but I just realized that this is not same problem! Just read the first panel: you have the constraints that the boat can carry two and you can't leave the goat with the cabbage or the wolf with the goat as in the classic problem, but nowhere is stated that you must reach the other side with the other three! You can just do nothing, or carry the sheep on the other side and go away with the boat...
--[[User:Sandman|Sandman]] ([[User talk:Sandman|talk]]) 20:02, 16 November 2012 (UTC)

:The problem actually doesn't state any requirement. An equally valid solution would be you starve to death, the cabbage rots to slime and the goat runs away while the wolf tears strips of flesh from your corpse. [[Special:Contributions/216.52.207.104|216.52.207.104]] 23:23, 5 December 2012 (UTC)

::Alternate Solution: Share the Cabbage with the goat. The wolf obviously respects you, so take it with you to make your pet. Don't let the goat ride- make it swim. {{unsigned|66.220.143.177}}

:::When I was a kid, we used the version with a dog, a chicken, and a bushel of corn. Being a farm kid, my solution was: take chicken, shoot dog, take corn. Because why the hell do you have a dog that eats chickens? Also, tie your bag o'corn up properly so a chicken couldn't get in. They're not that smart. And they cannot eat a bushel of corn in the time it takes you to cross a river and come back. Also, how did you manage to get to this point without everybody eating each other? Why isn't the chicken in a cage? That could protect it from getting eaten. Is it just sitting quietly awaiting your command? Won't it just wander away once you get it to the other side?
To the above: Goats HATE water. They do not swim well either. I think the wolf should swim.
My solution to the wolf/goat/cabbage is to tether the goat and the wolf far away from each other, whichever side they may be on. --[[Special:Contributions/184.21.245.225|184.21.245.225]] 22:29, 17 February 2013 (UTC)

Goats eat cabbage..
[[Special:Contributions/24.59.184.243|24.59.184.243]] 09:18, 13 January 2013 (UTC)
Hmm... what is to keep the human from eating the cabbage?
:Send the wolf with the cabbage across and let the boat drift back, and then have the human go across with the goat. 3 steps. The real challenge of this puzzle is teaching your wolf to paddle the boat across. [[User:Zyxuvius|Zyxuvius]] ([[User talk:Zyxuvius|talk]]) 09:55, 25 October 2013 (UTC)

Talk:859: (

2014-01-03T01:55:46Z

199.27.128.150:

) Here you go, you're free now. --[[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.150|199.27.128.150]] 01:55, 3 January 2014 (UTC)

In saying: "The programming language Lisp (also featured in 224: Lisp is known for large numbers...", a closing parenthesis was omitted. Was this intentional?

:Maybe. >.> <.< [[User:Lcarsos|lcarsos]] ([[User talk:Lcarsos|talk]]) 03:21, 9 October 2012 (UTC)

:You would need to check the source to be sure... --[[User:Bpothier|B. P.]] ([[User talk:Bpothier|talk]]) 19:08, 9 October 2012 (UTC)

If this comic bothers you, [[312: With Apologies to Robert Frost|#312]] can help. [[User:Joey|Joey]] ([[User talk:Joey|talk]]) 03:07, 20 December 2012 (UTC)

I do not think it's productive to explain the joke using the joke itself without clearly indicating that such is happening. So, ''It also refers to this awkward feeling when you see something (like an unmatched parentheses, speling error or a randomly-placed, comma.'' does not explicitly indicate the reflexive usage of the joke. I hope I'm not being overly pedantic, but my first instinct was to correct the spelling error. An an example the passage is fine, but it should be made to stand apart from the "real explanation" in some way, maybe in a callout or italicized as I have it here --[[User:Smartin|Smartin]] ([[User talk:Smartin|talk]]) 03:36, 4 January 2013 (UTC)

This reminds me of when I used to program the TI-83. It would automatically close any parentheses at the end of a line, and all the programming guides told me not to close them, since it would save a tiny bit of memory. I must have annoyed my teachers a lot when this bled over into my homework. I know I've gotten graded down for it. [[Special:Contributions/70.102.89.181|70.102.89.181]] 04:17, 28 June 2013 (UTC)

Talk:878: Model Rail

2013-12-28T23:38:15Z

199.27.128.150:

It IS possible to go smaller than one atom, but it tends to make a really bright flash and loud noise. The original atomic bomb was the second guy's reading of a train modeler's notes, miraculously preserved in a refrigerator. --[[Special:Contributions/68.200.188.141|68.200.188.141]] 03:37, 29 January 2013 (UTC)

Corrected HO to H0 --[[Special:Contributions/70.169.90.254|70.169.90.254]] 22:25, 10 April 2013 (UTC)

I hate it when my model train layout gets crushed by a cold virus. [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.150|199.27.128.150]] 23:38, 28 December 2013 (UTC)

Talk:1255: Columbus

2013-12-28T22:26:44Z

199.27.128.150:

I'm pretty sure Valar are immune to disease... [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.150|199.27.128.150]] 22:26, 28 December 2013 (UTC)

Megan's version of the story is one big reference to the {{w|Silmarillion}}, in case you're wondering. [[Special:Contributions/100.40.49.22|100.40.49.22]] 06:00, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

I fail to see how the fact scholars and other educated people knew the Earth is round means he couldn't have difficulty getting sponsorship because of that. He wasn't asking scholars for sponsorship, did he? :-) Actually, according to {{w|Christopher_Columbus#Quest_for_support|wikipedia}}, "Columbus presented his plans to Queen Isabella, who, in turn, referred it to a '''committee'''" ... -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 09:14, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

Because it wasn't just scholars - ''everyone'' knew that the world was a sphere. Sailors, for example, took the monumental task of noticing that when objects appeared in the distance, they seemed to "rise up" over the horizon (hence the phrase). For that to happen, the sea (and by extension the rest of the world) had to be curved.
[[Special:Contributions/109.76.209.186|109.76.209.186]] 12:08, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

: Farmers were famous for believing the world was flat, but it might as well just be city prejudice or jokes on farmers behalf. They would anyway be in the worst position to know any better. [[Special:Contributions/62.220.2.194|62.220.2.194]] 12:30, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

:: I was trying to make a joke. According to wikipedia again, it is recorded that the committee denied the request because of distance to Asia, therefore shown much more intelligence that committees tend to have on average. Still, he asked for sponsorship multiple people, which might include some who believed earth is flat. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 11:07, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Looking at the moon and at the earth's shadow during a lunar eclipse would probably make many realize the earth is round. [[User:Ghaller825|Ghaller825]] ([[User talk:Ghaller825|talk]]) 12:45, 23 August 2013 (UTC)
:Unless "round" as in "circular", rather than "spherical". A disc-like Earth could give the same effect. A ''non-tidally-locked moon'' would have been an interesting thing for early understanding of the universe, as it would have shown a clearly spherical ball rotating and let the layperson imagine sphericality under their own feet a lot easier in their own childhood, thus flat-earthing would have been culturally invalid, not just lazy/unthinking. Whether or not farmers 'knew'/cared/were-told-by-the-church that the world was flat isn't really relevent on the scale of farming where you need to worry more about localised hills on your land than global curvature on its actual order of magnitude. Of course, in the absence of any other clues you tend to think of everything as flat as your (crudely worked) kitchen tabletop by default. [[Special:Contributions/178.104.103.140|178.104.103.140]] 16:16, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

I am not sure what people knew and what they believed in earlier times. For example: {{w|M-Theory}} says that the space we live in has 11 dimensions. Assuming this is correct, what will people in 500 years say about us? Did we know it or did we not? Could we have expected what will hit us in a couple of years from out of one of the dimensions that we do not visually perceive?
To apply this to the quesion of whether they knew that the world was round: There is a {{w|Deep-sea_exploration#Milestones_of_deep_sea_exploration|story}} about Magellan (who certainly believed that the world was round because he tried to sail around it): He tried to measure the depth of the ocean with a 700m long rope. When the rope failed to reach the bottom, he concluded that the ocean was infinitely deep. Now how can a round object with a finite perimeter have and infinite radius? (I realize that wikipedia does not give any sources for the story and its origin is somewhat obscure, someone translated the story from the German wikipedia in July 2011; in the German wikipedia it had first appeared in 2006, but the story was around on German language websites since at least [http://www.scinexx.de/dossier-detail-40-11.html 2000]; I have no idea where it originally comes from, but it would be interesting to have a look at Magellan's ship's log if it had such a thing.)
[[User:Y4cy|Y4cy]] ([[User talk:Y4cy|talk]]) 13:41, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

:You suppose that the round earth is imbedded in flat 3-dimensional space. If it were’nt, you could easily have infinitely deep oceans. Maybe Magellan was way ahead of his time by thinking in non-Euclidean categories.
:(Explanation for non-mathematicians: Draw a circle – it surely has a finite radius, but if you measure the depth perpendicular to the sheet of paper, you could go infinitely deep. Now apply this to a round sphere and measure perpendicular to the 3D space you put it in.)
:--[[Special:Contributions/188.102.28.80|188.102.28.80]] 09:41, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

::Your example fails. Magellan sailed in ship with keel pointing in the direction of the depth he tried to measure. His success depended on the fact that earth is round IN THAT DIMENSION. Sure, there are geometries where the earth can be round in that dimension AND ocean would still be infinite, but, as you correctly mentioned, they would be non-euclidean, while your example with sheet of paper is (almost) euclidean. Also, dimension which would make possible to measure infinite distances is {{w|Brane cosmology}} - {{w|M-Theory}} would work perfectly well even in case all of those "extra" dimensions would be extremely small. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 11:07, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

:[http://www.wdl.org/en/item/3082/ Journal of Magellan's Voyage] is an original source (in French) accessible online of this voyage, which could contain this story. Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/178.26.118.249|178.26.118.249]] 19:36, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

[http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/a/arda.html Arda] was not [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/b/bentworld.html bent] until the [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/d/downfallofnumenor.html Downfall of Númenor] in [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/chronicle.html?startyear=3319&startage=2 S.A. 3319]. When [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/e/earendil.html Eärendil] sailed into [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/w/west.html the West] in [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/chronicle.html?startyear=538&startage=1 F.A. 538] he did so on a topologically flat earth. It was the [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/i/istari.html Istari], the [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/g/greyelves.html Sindarin] belatedly answering the [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/g/greatjourney.html summons of the Valar], [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/g/galadriel.html Galadriel] of the [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/n/noldor.html Noldorin], [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/e/elrond.html Elrond] [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/h/halfelven.html half-Elven], and the [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/r/ringbearers.html ring-bearers] of the [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/t/thirdage.html third age] who took the [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/s/straightroad.html straight road] to [http://www.glyphweb.com/arda/v/valinor.html Valinor]. --[[User:April_Arcus|April Arcus]] 01:44, 25 August 2013 (UTC)
* Nerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrd. :) --[[User:V2Blast|V2Blast]] ([[User talk:V2Blast|talk]]) 07:34, 27 August 2013 (UTC)

How is the title text related to the title text in 1256? Does Arwen visit the Undying Lands? [[User:Jd2718|Jd2718]] ([[User talk:Jd2718|talk]]) 12:06, 5 September 2013 (UTC)