3165: Earthquake Prediction Flowchart

2025-11-19T02:16:32Z

2001:56A:78D5:EB00:696B:B218:616F:A09B: Added more digits of pi

{{comic
| number = 3165
| date = November 7, 2025
| title = Earthquake Prediction Flowchart
| image = earthquake_prediction_flowchart_2x.png
| imagesize = 318x494px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = At least people who make religious predictions of the apocalypse have an answer to the question 'Why didn't you predict any of the other ones that happened recently?'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|This page was created EXACTLY 3.141592653589793 YEARS BEFORE AN EARTHQUAKE. Don't remove this notice too soon.}}

The comic purports to depict a flowchart for determining whether you should believe someone claiming to be able to predict {{w|earthquakes}} with precision. However, this "flowchart" immediately leads to a hard '''NO''', with a brief description as to why. [https://www.iris.edu/hq/inclass/fact-sheet/how_often_do_earthquakes_occur Earthquakes happen] [https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-77.5421,-217.26563&extent=84.9901,345.23438 all the time], so if someone claims they can predict them, we'd have their methodology proven or disproven almost immediately. Also, if it was reliable, seismologists would be parading it around as a revolutionary discovery. Thus, there should be no remaining need to consult a flowchart on the matter. Another interpretation is that seismologists will get mad over claiming useless facts.

In this context it is noteworthy that six Italian seismologists, volcanologists and engineers were {{w|2009 L'Aquila earthquake#Prosecutions|charged with manslaughter}} in the aftermath of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, on the basis of having been "falsely reassuring". Six days before the earthquake killed 308 people, they convened in a committee meeting, and decided that there was no reason to warn the population over the highly tentative possibility that minor geological activity was a sign that something more major ''might'' be imminent. Seven years after the quake, they were finally cleared of wrongdoing. A high-ranking government official was not fully cleared, however, for inappropriate public reassurances. At other times, 'warnings' have been issued that did ''not'' clearly precede any actual disasters, and there are clearly many arguments about whether or not to risk "{{w|The Boy Who Cried Wolf|crying wolf}}" on flimsy evidence.

Prior to the L'Aquila quake, {{w|2009 L'Aquila earthquake#Prior warning|other predictions were announced}} for a different part of the faultline. Retroactively, these previously dismissed claims were used to support that the threat was actually known. But similarly 'predictive' warnings are given all the time, and the initial interpretation makes it more likely to be just coincidentally connected with the real quake in not quite the 'right' place and not even necessarily at the right time. The only thing to be sure about is that certainty, both of when/where earthquakes might happen or of their ''not'' happening, is very much overrated.

This strip is similar to [[1723: Meteorite Identification]], as a one-step flowchart ending in a firm ''no''.

The title text compares those who claim to predict earthquakes to those who claim to predict the end of the world (based on their religion, for example). A prominent argument against those who claim to be able to predict non-apocalyptic disasters like earthquakes is that the "predictor" has not predicted any such disasters ''prior'' to their claim. An apocalypse, however, is not something that has occurred before,{{Citation needed}} and generally only happens once. Thus, unlike an earthquake predictor, anyone predicting an apocalypse will not need to explain any failures ({{w|False positives and false negatives|false negatives}}) to predict previous apocalypses. People who have ''previously'' predicted an apocalypse and failed to have it come about (i.e. a false positive), should be exceptions, but {{w|Harold Camping|such people}} never seem to lose credibility with their more devout followers.

==Transcript==
:[Caption above a flowchart:]
:Someone is claiming to predict the exact date of a future earthquake.
:Should you listen?

:[At the top of the flowchart is a wide diamond with the following text:]
:Start
:[An arrow points down to a rectangle with the following text:]
:<big>'''NO'''</big>
:(There are big earthquakes constantly, so if anyone ever '''''does''''' figure this out, it will be immediately obvious that their method works and the world's seismologists will not shut up about it.
:You won't need this flowchart.)

{{comic discussion}}<noinclude>
[[Category:Earthquakes]]
[[Category:Flowcharts]]

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3165: Earthquake Prediction Flowchart