3165: Earthquake Prediction Flowchart

2025-11-08T17:29:40Z

2601:147:4900:DB80:5EC7:171C:668F:9190: /* Explanation */ added link

{{comic
| number = 3165
| date = November 7, 2025
| title = Earthquake Prediction Flowchart
| image = earthquake_prediction_flowchart_2x.png
| imagesize = 318x494px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = At least people who make religious predictions of the apocalypse have an answer to the question 'Why didn't you predict any of the other ones that happened recently?'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|This page was created EXACTLY 3.14159 YEARS BEFORE AN EARTHQUAKE. Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
The comic purports to depict a flowchart demonstrating whether you should believe someone claiming to be able to predict {{w|earthquakes}}. However, this "flowchart" immediately leads to a hard '''NO''', with a brief description on why. [https://www.iris.edu/hq/inclass/fact-sheet/how_often_do_earthquakes_occur Earthquakes happen all the time], so if someone claims they can predict them, we'd have their methodology proven or disproven almost immediately, and if it's reliable, seismologists would be parading it around as a revolutionary discovery. Thus, there should be no need to consult a flowchart on the matter.

This strip is similar to [[1723: Meteorite Identification]], as a one-step flowchart ending in a firm ''no''.

The title text compares those who claim to predict earthquakes to those who claim to predict the end of the world, for example based on their religion. A prominent argument against those who claim to be able to predict disasters like earthquakes is that the "predictor" has not predicted any such disasters ''prior'' to their claim. An apocalypse, however, is not something that has occurred before, and generally only happens once{{citation needed}}. Thus, unlike an earthquake predictor, anyone predicting an apocalypse will not need to explain any failures in predicting other apocalypses. People who themselves have ''previously'' predicted an apocalypse, and failed to have it come about, should be exceptions, but such people never seem to lose credibility with their more devout followers.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
:[Caption above a flowchart:]
:Someone is claiming to predict the exact date of a future earthquake.
:Should you listen?

:[At the top of the flowchart is a wide diamond with the following text:]
:Start
:[An arrow points down to a rectangle with the following text:]
:<big>'''NO'''</big>
:(There are big earthquakes constantly, so if anyone ever '''''does''''' figure this out, it will be immediately obvious that their method works and the world's seismologists will not shut up about it.
:You won't need this flowchart.)

{{comic discussion}}<noinclude>
[[Category:Earthquakes]]
[[Category:Flowcharts]]

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3165: Earthquake Prediction Flowchart