3165: Earthquake Prediction Flowchart

2025-11-09T18:11:20Z

2A02:AA10:EA7E:ED00:6180:8882:DDAB:4C7B: /* Explanation */ + Aquila earthquake in Italy

{{comic
| number = 3165
| date = November 7, 2025
| title = Earthquake Prediction Flowchart
| image = earthquake_prediction_flowchart_2x.png
| imagesize = 318x494px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = At least people who make religious predictions of the apocalypse have an answer to the question 'Why didn't you predict any of the other ones that happened recently?'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|This page was created EXACTLY 3.14159 YEARS BEFORE AN EARTHQUAKE. Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
The comic purports to depict a flowchart demonstrating whether you should believe someone claiming to be able to predict {{w|earthquakes}}. However, this "flowchart" immediately leads to a hard '''NO''', with a brief description on why. [https://www.iris.edu/hq/inclass/fact-sheet/how_often_do_earthquakes_occur Earthquakes happen all the time], so if someone claims they can predict them, we'd have their methodology proven or disproven almost immediately. And, if it's reliable, seismologists would be parading it around as a revolutionary discovery. Thus, there should be no remaining need to consult a flowchart on the matter.

In this context it is noteworthy that six Italian seismologists, volcanologists and engineers were charged for manslaughter in the aftermath of the {{w|2009 L'Aquila earthquake}}. Six days before the earthquake killed 308 people, they convened in a committee meeting, and decided not to warn the population. Seven years after the quake, they were finally cleared of any wrongdoing.

This strip is similar to [[1723: Meteorite Identification]], as a one-step flowchart ending in a firm ''no''.

The title text compares those who claim to predict earthquakes to those who claim to predict the end of the world, for example based on their religion. A prominent argument against those who claim to be able to predict non-apocaluptic disasters, like earthquakes, is that the "predictor" has not predicted any such disasters ''prior'' to their claim. An apocalypse, however, is not something that has occurred before, and generally only happens once.{{Citation needed}} Thus, unlike an earthquake predictor, anyone predicting an apocalypse will not need to explain any failures ({{w|False positives and false negatives|false negatives}}) in predicting other apocalypses. People who have ''previously'' predicted an apocalypse and failed to have it come about (i.e. a false positive), should be exceptions, but {{w|Harold Camping|such people}} never seem to lose credibility with their more devout followers.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
:[Caption above a flowchart:]
:Someone is claiming to predict the exact date of a future earthquake.
:Should you listen?

:[At the top of the flowchart is a wide diamond with the following text:]
:Start
:[An arrow points down to a rectangle with the following text:]
:<big>'''NO'''</big>
:(There are big earthquakes constantly, so if anyone ever '''''does''''' figure this out, it will be immediately obvious that their method works and the world's seismologists will not shut up about it.
:You won't need this flowchart.)

{{comic discussion}}<noinclude>
[[Category:Earthquakes]]
[[Category:Flowcharts]]

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3165: Earthquake Prediction Flowchart