explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:2476: Base Rate

2021-06-21T14:32:37Z

DevAudio: Response to Mx. Creant

"''Aaaand we're back!''" [[User:ProphetZarquon|ProphetZarquon]] ([[User talk:ProphetZarquon|talk]]) 17:01, 15 June 2021 (UTC)
: What happened? [[User:Bischoff|Bischoff]] ([[User talk:Bischoff|talk]]) 09:02, 16 June 2021 (UTC)
::I missed you! [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.244|141.101.98.244]] 19:18, 15 June 2021 (UTC)
:::There is this : [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/explain_xkcd:Community_portal/Miscellaneous#So_what_happened_to_the_site.3F post], but it does not help much yet... But great to be back live as long as it stays like this --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 12:08, 16 June 2021 (UTC)
:I never realised how much I relied on this site to keep me busy until it went down. [[User:Beanie|Beanie]] [[User talk:Beanie|talk]] 10:29, 17 June 2021 (UTC)
:: [[903: Extended Mind]] --[[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.111|172.69.33.111]] 05:19, 18 June 2021 (UTC)

I can't tell if cueball is holding the pointer in his left or right hand [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.122|141.101.98.122]] 21:30, 15 June 2021 (UTC)
:If he's facing the audience, it's in his right hand. [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 21:32, 15 June 2021 (UTC)
:Typically cueball has a slightly noticeable 'chin' that indicates the direction he is looking (ex: #2471, #2468, #2460(cell 2 he looks at Megan and cell 3 looks away from her) ). So in this case I'd say he is looking to the right with his body facing the audience. --[[User:TallJason|TallJason]] ([[User talk:TallJason|talk]]) 15:52, 16 June 2021 (UTC)

I wonder if we can expect a comic soon about fan sites going offline. [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 21:32, 15 June 2021 (UTC)
:I really don't think Randall keeps an eye on this page... --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 11:36, 16 June 2021 (UTC)

I removed the claim that Cueball was left-handed; I don't think we can tell whether he is or isn't. --[[Special:Contributions/172.70.130.82|172.70.130.82]] 22:36, 15 June 2021 (UTC)
:There's now a claim that he's ''right''-handed, and I don't think that's reliable either. Yes, the "proper" way to do a presentation is to be facing away from the screen, but I've seen a lot of not-very-good presenters. [[User:BunsenH|BunsenH]] ([[User talk:BunsenH|talk]]) 04:30, 16 June 2021 (UTC)
::I’ll bet that about 90% of the not-very-good presenters you’ve seen were right-handed, therefore if Cueball is not very good, he’s probably right-handed.[[Special:Contributions/172.69.34.190|172.69.34.190]] 04:53, 16 June 2021 (UTC)
Wouldn't cueball be technically correct, despite his logical error? Given a set of people who make base-rate errors, with no other qualifications, and given that 90 percent are right handed, wouldn't that make 90 percent of the people who make base rate errors right handed? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.71.180|172.69.71.180]] 13:21, 16 June 2021 (UTC)
:The triangle formed between his legs and the floor is isosceles. This would require either that he his stance is perpendicular to the viewer, or else he has non-standard hip geometry. With that premise, if we look at the lines of his arm on the 'right' (from the reader's perspective) the line between his arm and leg are parallel. In order for him to be facing the audience, but yet pointing backwards with his left hand, he would have to either rotate his torso, which would cause the arm/leg lines to be not parallel, or have a missing scapula in his right shoulder (normal human arms can't rotate backwards that far. Alternately, due to the visual placement of the whiteboard, cueball would have to be a very short individual for the base line to show between his biceps, or the board would have to be hung unusually high on the wall. None of that is conclusive, but the most reasonable explanation is that Cueball is left-handed, even if that's bad presentation form.[[Special:Contributions/172.69.68.79|172.69.68.79]] 15:21, 17 June 2021 (UTC)

:: Sure, but i think his non standard hip geometry is pretty evident given that his femurs attach directly to his spine. I think I've seen cueball shrug, from which i might infer that he had scapula, but from looking at him, I think it's easily likely that he has a tendon connecting his humeri to his skull. But i do think he's rotating his trunk anyway, because of his chin position. I find irony in the fact that a right - handed person would be making this erroneous analysis. Btw I appreciated this postural analysis so much that i made an account and am posting my ever comment[[User:Mx. Creant|Mx. Creant]] ([[User talk:Mx. Creant|talk]]) 05:15, 19 June 2021 (UTC)

:: Welcome to the community! Please be mindful of the fact that written communication lacks so much context. Your post could be reasonably read to be pretty mean and dismissive in tone. That's how I read it at first. I'm making the conscious choice to re-read it in the best possible light and say thanks for the kind comment re: my post inspiring you to join the community. :) [[User:DevAudio|DevAudio]] ([[User talk:DevAudio|talk]]) 14:32, 21 June 2021 (UTC)

Can someone explain here in the comments how, in the explanation, we go from that example of 1% / 5% false-positive rate to a 17% / 83%? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.34.190|172.69.34.190]] 17:14, 16 June 2021 (UTC)
:Take a population of 10,000 tests. From the premise: 1% (100) are true positives and 99% (9,900) are true negatives, regardless of testing. 5% of those TNs (9900*5% = 495) register positive, falsely. We aren't given a false-negative rate, so assuming all 100 TPs register as positive, correctly. 495+100=595 people showing as positive, but only the 100 TPs actually truly were, which is slightly ''less'' than 17% (100/595 = 16.8ish%) who have an accurate positive test, leaving a whopping value of slightly more than 83% of tested-positive individuals who were ''wrongly'' identified as positive. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.105|162.158.158.105]] 18:11, 16 June 2021 (UTC)
::Another explanation: the 5% is the answer to "What's the change of having a positive test knowning I'm healthy?" the 83% is the answer to "What's the change of being infected knowing I've got a positive test ?".
:::The latter answers "What's the chance of '''not''' being infected, knowing I have a positive test?", as I'm sure you really meant, but that's otherwise an excellent form of summary. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.177|141.101.99.177]] 13:33, 17 June 2021 (UTC)

Removed the example from the first paragraph. Preserving it here for future reference/improvement. The example is more complex and harder to understand than the example in the comic.

"For instance, imagine a disease that is present in 1% of the population, for which there is a test with a 5% false-positive rate. This test might be presented as "95% accurate", and so people who receive a positive result from such a test are likely to think they have the disease. However, someone who receives a positive test result has only a 17% chance of actually having the disease; a much more likely reason for the positive result, occurring in 83% of all positive test results, is a false (wrong) positive."
[[Special:Contributions/172.70.35.69|172.70.35.69]] 00:03, 18 June 2021 (UTC)

Talk:2259: Networking Problems

2020-01-24T23:34:22Z

DevAudio:

I just had an issue the other day with copying disk images to a network drive using <code>smbclient</code> on Linux Mint. The transfer would only run at 1 to 2 MB/s. Then I discovered that if I opened the mounted drive in the GUI file explorer and refreshed the directory where I was copying the image to, it would consistently cause the copy operation to jump to 40 to 60 MB/s and stay there for the rest of the operation. I concluded that <code>smbclient</code> must run on actual sorcery. [[User:Aaron Rotenberg|Aaron Rotenberg]] ([[User talk:Aaron Rotenberg|talk]]) 18:02, 24 January 2020 (UTC)

Yeah, can confirm that even the high end of 'normal computer problems' can result in belief in the occult and/or paranormal operation of computers. I now attempt to moderate my brainwaves into positive only flow to make sure I do not negatively effect the computer through quantum effects on the bits and operation. If i get frustrated or confused by the computer for an extended time, i put it down and walk away until I have more of a 'can do' attitude. Then of coarse there was that time that.... it may be too late for me, but there are puzzling computer problems to explore so I... remember me as I was. ~Litppunk 18:26, 24 January 2020 (UTC)

"Ghosts generally are not concerned with expressions of belief, but there are some religious traditions that include group clapping and chanting." - I don't think the hover text is related to the ghosts. They seem just like two separate unbelievable things. "Perhaps the ghost in question is the Holy Ghost." - I doubt that is what he is referring to, especially since it is plural 'ghosts' and the Holy Ghost is singular. [[User:Curtobi4|Curtobi4]] ([[User talk:Curtobi4|talk]]) 18:44, 24 January 2020 (UTC)

Clearly seems related to 1457, albeit with much more advanced tech issues. --[[User:GoldNinja|GoldNinja]] ([[User talk:GoldNinja|talk]]) 19:18, 24 January 2020 (UTC)

Clapping hands and saying you believe in fairys is how you prevent Tinkerbell from Dying when you watch Peter Pan.

: '''Pareidolia''' (one of my least favorite words because I can't spell it well enough to google for the correct spelling) is a definite problem for the human brain - we habitually spot patterns where they don't exist. But the problem for software engineers is that spotting patterns that '''DO''' exist is how you find bugs. So distinguishing between real patterns and pareidolia ('i' before 'e' except after 'c'...and 'r'...sometimes...) is a vital part of the job. Clearly Cueball has that problem here. [[User:SteveBaker|SteveBaker]] ([[User talk:SteveBaker|talk]]) 20:48, 24 January 2020 (UTC)

I know it's hyperbole, but are there any actual networking problems that could cause every other packet to be laggy? [[User:Blacksilver|Blacksilver]] ([[User talk:Blacksilver|talk]]) 21:17, 24 January 2020 (UTC)

:Nothing I can think of you'd ever do in a production setup on purpose, but with some really crazy port-channel settings, with the right kind of tiny packets like a SYN, and a downstream bridge or repeater to add in some intentional delay, I think you could. Never underestimate the power of a sufficiently motivated netadmin. [[User:DevAudio|DevAudio]] ([[User talk:DevAudio|talk]]) 22:55, 24 January 2020 (UTC)

The classic 500-mile bug: "We can't send mail more than 500 miles" http://web.mit.edu/jemorris/humor/500-miles

While I don't believe that ghosts have power over computers, I do believe that many of the seemingly random "hiccups" in my computer programs are caused by sunspots. [[User:Rtanenbaum|Rtanenbaum]] ([[User talk:Rtanenbaum|talk]]) 22:52, 24 January 2020 (UTC)

Disagree strongly that this has anything to do with seeing patterns where they don't exist. Modern network troubleshooting tools will show you exactly the order that packets were received, and the time they were received at. Although it would be hard to induce the problem described, if it '''were''' induced, you could indeed see it quite clearly and objectively in a packet capture. This comic is more about some of the brain-breakingly twisted ways networking can go awry and all the impossible things it can make you want to believe in the quest to make sense of what we are seeing. [[User:DevAudio|DevAudio]] ([[User talk:DevAudio|talk]]) 23:02, 24 January 2020 (UTC)

: I will correct myself slightly - it would seem from the mouseover text that he is finding a false pattern, but it's not impossible for what he said to be true, it would just require laboratory conditions and someone playing a prank. He could also be seeing a real pattern with some kind of crazy cause involving a sound transducer and either EMI or some intentional sabotage. Yeah, that's waaaay off in left field, but so is the network data Cueball may be actually be seeing. On the whole, I would not fight someone who chose to believe Cueball is seeing a false pattern with the clapping. It's a reasonable interpretation for anyone who hasn't seen the insane things I have when troubleshooting networks. I HAVE seen ghost packets. (It was a weird glitch causing a switch to replay packets from hosts that weren't even connected anymore, not actual paranormal activity.) [[User:DevAudio|DevAudio]] ([[User talk:DevAudio|talk]]) 23:34, 24 January 2020 (UTC)

Talk:2259: Networking Problems

2020-01-24T23:02:34Z

DevAudio:

Talk:2259: Networking Problems

2020-01-24T22:55:17Z

DevAudio: Answering the challenge

Talk:1903: Bun Trend

2017-10-16T15:32:59Z

DevAudio: Added a comment

Bread product ≠ rabbit - Subject says it all. {{unsigned ip|141.101.107.168}}

Other Bun comics include [[1682]] and [[1871]] - maybe we should start a category? --[[User:AnotherAnonymous|AnotherAnonymous]] ([[User talk:AnotherAnonymous|talk]]) 14:58, 16 October 2017 (UTC)

Sure sure, everyone thinks they're harmless, until one picks up a switchblade and an attitude. [[User:DevAudio|DevAudio]] ([[User talk:DevAudio|talk]]) 15:32, 16 October 2017 (UTC)

1893: Thread

2017-09-22T15:51:59Z

DevAudio: Added image description to transcript

{{comic
| number = 1893
| date = September 22, 2017
| title = Thread
| image = thread.png
| titletext = Since the current Twitter threadfall kicked off in early 2016, we can expect it to continue until the mid 2060s when the next Interval begins.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Needs more. Do not delete this tag before the explanation is actually complete.}}

F'nor is a character from the popular sci-fi/fantasy series "{{w|Dragonriders of Pern}}," by Anne McCaffrey. He is posting a Twitter comment (a "thread" that's only one comment long, hence "1/1") about "Thread," a massively destructive alien organism from the same series.

"Threadfall" is the name for the beginning of cyclic periods when Thread attacks the world of Pern, which occurs between "Intervals."

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

[A mock-up of a "tweet" from the site twitter.com is shown. It contains a mock-up of a user photo of the fictional character F'nor, including a tiny line sketch of F'nor's brown dragon Canth flying overhead. Below the tweet are several action buttons typical of a twitter post for comments, replying, likes, etc.]

:F'nor
:@fnor
:Thread: The greatest threat to our life on Pern 1/1

{{comic discussion}}

Talk:1893: Thread

2017-09-22T15:41:13Z

DevAudio: Added a space to separate my comment from the previous user.

Threadfall on Twitter beginning 2016? I'm not sure to what that refers. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.58.29|172.68.58.29]] 15:19, 22 September 2017 (UTC)
[[Special:Contributions/172.68.58.29|172.68.58.29]] 15:19, 22 September 2017 (UTC)

I loved the Dragonriders of Pern series, but I'm a little bit mystified where this came from out of the blue. It's hardly a new series. Did he just start reading it and is all excited about it? Usually it's tied to some current event or topic, rather than just an excuse to make a pun about a character from an old book... Anyone know of any relevant current events that prompted this? [[User:DevAudio|DevAudio]] ([[User talk:DevAudio|talk]]) 15:39, 22 September 2017 (UTC)

Talk:1893: Thread

2017-09-22T15:39:57Z

DevAudio: Questioning if this is totally random or was linked to current events.

Threadfall on Twitter beginning 2016? I'm not sure to what that refers. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.58.29|172.68.58.29]] 15:19, 22 September 2017 (UTC)
[[Special:Contributions/172.68.58.29|172.68.58.29]] 15:19, 22 September 2017 (UTC)
I loved the Dragonriders of Pern series, but I'm a little bit mystified where this came from out of the blue. It's hardly a new series. Did he just start reading it and is all excited about it? Usually it's tied to some current event or topic, rather than just an excuse to make a pun about a character from an old book... Anyone know of any relevant current events that prompted this? [[User:DevAudio|DevAudio]] ([[User talk:DevAudio|talk]]) 15:39, 22 September 2017 (UTC)