{{comic
| number = 3165
| date = November 7, 2025
| title = Earthquake Prediction Flowchart
| image = earthquake_prediction_flowchart_2x.png
| imagesize = 318x494px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = At least people who make religious predictions of the apocalypse have an answer to the question 'Why didn't you predict any of the other ones that happened recently?'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|This page was created EXACTLY 3.14159 YEARS BEFORE AN EARTHQUAKE. Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
The comic purports to depict a flowchart demonstrating whether you should believe someone claiming to be able to predict {{w|earthquakes}}. However, this "flowchart" immediately leads to a hard '''NO''', with a brief description on why. [https://www.iris.edu/hq/inclass/fact-sheet/how_often_do_earthquakes_occur Earthquakes happen all the time], so if someone claims they can predict them, we'd have their methodology proven or disproven almost immediately. And, if it's reliable, seismologists would be parading it around as a revolutionary discovery. Thus, there should be no remaining need to consult a flowchart on the matter. Another interperatiation is that seismologists will get mad over claiming useless facts.

In this context it is noteworthy that six Italian seismologists, volcanologists and engineers were {{w|2009 L'Aquila earthquake#Prosecutions|charged for manslaughter}} in the aftermath of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, on the basis of having been "falsely reassuring". Six days before the earthquake killed 308 people, they convened in a committee meeting, and decided that there was no reason to warn the population over the highly tentative possibility that minor geological activity was a sign that something more major ''might'' be imminent. Seven years after the quake, they were finally cleared of any wrongdoing. At other times, 'warnings' have been issued that did ''not'' clearly precede any actual disasters, and there are clearly many arguments about whether or not to risk "{{w|The Boy Who Cried Wolf|crying wolf}}" on flimsy evidence, especially when there is always the confusing possibility of coincidentally warning about {{w|2009 L'Aquila earthquake#Prior warning|a different 'wolf'}} from the real one that was not spotted in time.

This strip is similar to [[1723: Meteorite Identification]], as a one-step flowchart ending in a firm ''no''.

The title text compares those who claim to predict earthquakes to those who claim to predict the end of the world, for example based on their religion. A prominent argument against those who claim to be able to predict non-apocalyptic disasters, like earthquakes, is that the "predictor" has not predicted any such disasters ''prior'' to their claim. An apocalypse, however, is not something that has occurred before, and generally only happens once.{{Citation needed}} Thus, unlike an earthquake predictor, anyone predicting an apocalypse will not need to explain any failures ({{w|False positives and false negatives|false negatives}}) in predicting other apocalypses. People who have ''previously'' predicted an apocalypse and failed to have it come about (i.e. a false positive), should be exceptions, but {{w|Harold Camping|such people}} never seem to lose credibility with their more devout followers.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
:[Caption above a flowchart:]
:Someone is claiming to predict the exact date of a future earthquake.
:Should you listen?

:[At the top of the flowchart is a wide diamond with the following text:]
:Start
:[An arrow points down to a rectangle with the following text:]
:<big>'''NO'''</big>
:(There are big earthquakes constantly, so if anyone ever '''''does''''' figure this out, it will be immediately obvious that their method works and the world's seismologists will not shut up about it.
:You won't need this flowchart.)

{{comic discussion}}<noinclude>
[[Category:Earthquakes]]
[[Category:Flowcharts]]

3165: Earthquake Prediction Flowchart

2025-11-08T04:40:11Z

Mathmaster:

2025-11-03T23:22:09Z

Mathmaster:

Talk:3163: Repair Video

2025-11-03T23:20:49Z

Mathmaster:

Lol [[User:Mathmaster|Mathmaster]] ([[User talk:Mathmaster|talk]])

2025-10-29T22:39:19Z

Mathmaster:

{{comic
| number = 3160
| date = October 27, 2025
| title = Document Forgery
| image = document_forgery_2x.png
| imagesize = 345x323px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = It comes with a certificate of authenticity, which comes with a certificate of authenticity, which comes with a...
}}

==Explanation==

This comic depicts a {{w|diploma}} for a {{w|Doctor of Philosophy|PhD}} in {{w|forgery|Document Forgery}}.

Upon completion of many awards and educational programs, graduates are typically presented with a physical certificate to symbolize their achievement. This is almost always true of colleges and universities, and having a diploma hanging on your wall is a way to signal your academic achievements to anyone who sees them. In an earlier era, such diplomas acted as actual documentation to prove a person's qualifications. In modern times, the actual diploma is typically considered to be decorative. Employers and other organizations confirming a person's education are more likely to contact the institution itself, rather than asking to see a diploma.

Having a diploma such as the one in the comic would automatically be suspect, because the holder is declaring that they have the skills to forge a diploma, rather than bothering to actually earn the degree. This is backed up by the diploma coming from a school with the exceedingly generic name of "East State University". Typically (though not always), colleges or universities with the word 'state' in them are named after the state or region they're in. East State University does not exist anywhere in the world, with the closest being {{w|East Tennessee State University}}. It sounds like something that someone would come up with if they were trying to make up a plausible-sounding name for a fictional school.

The paradox is that creating a convincing diploma could act as evidence that you are, in fact, trained in the art of forgery. One could even imagine the final exam in such a program including the creation of one's own diploma. None of that applies in real life. No accredited university offers a degree in document forgery, let alone a PhD. Document forgery typically belongs to the field of either crime or spycraft, and in both cases, the training is likely to be unofficial and done without public recognition. Possibly, this might be the creation of someone who felt slighted that their skill in forgery wasn't publicly recognized, and so used their skills to create a fraudulent diploma.

The title text mentions that the diploma comes with a {{w|certificate of authenticity}}, and that the certificate of authenticity has a certificate of its own, and implies that the second certificate has one of its own, and so on, {{w|ad infinitum}}. The joke is that a certificate of authenticity, on its own, is useless in proving a document wasn't forged, because presumably, forging such a certificate is no more difficult than forging the initial document, and simply recursively adding certificates does nothing to resolve this. In real life, certificates of authenticity are meaningful, because they can be verified with whatever expert or organization issued them. If that party is trusted to be able to detect forgeries, and is able to confirm that they issued the certificate, then that does enable verification of the original document.

[[Randall]] may have intended a pun on two meanings of the word 'doctor': firstly, as a title accorded to those who have earned a PhD, and secondly as meaning to {{wiktionary|doctor#Verb|change or falsify details on a document (verb #6)}}.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
:[A panel depicts a diploma that has decorations on the corners and sides, but the corners have more. There is a lot of illegible text above, amid, and below the big text.]

:[Two lines of illegible text]
:East State University

:[Two lines of illegible text, a box with illegible text, and another line of illegible text]
:Doctor of Philosophy
:in
:Document Forgery

:[A line of illegible text, with a logo/official seal below it in the center. To the upper left, upper right, lower left, and lower right of the seal are what appear to be signatures, with a line of bold illegible text and a line of small illegible text beneath each signature line.]

:[Caption beneath the panel:]
:If you put one of these up in your office, and no one notices, you've earned it.

{{comic discussion}}<noinclude>
[[Category:Self-reference]]