explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:1557: Ozymandias

2015-07-30T13:04:10Z

Matthew-e-hackman: We were all seated around the camp fire...

Look upon this comment and despair! {{unsigned ip|173.245.50.164}}
: The fact that the true author of this comment may never be known is reason enough to despair.[[Special:Contributions/173.245.55.66|173.245.55.66]] 14:35, 29 July 2015 (UTC)
: An unrelated but interesting piece of trivia about Ozymandias: "Ozymandias" is the Greek name of the pharaoh Ramesses II, one of the most famous of the Egyptian pharaohs, who built many monuments that still stand today. So the poem, which has a ruler whose monument has crumbled and who is implied to be nearly forgotten, is in fact completely inaccurate! [[User:JoeNotCharles|JoeNotCharles]] ([[User talk:JoeNotCharles|talk]]) 15:23, 29 July 2015 (UTC)
:: Perhaps the Ozymandias King of Kings from the poem is not the same one as Ozymandias the pharaoh? So he's doubly forgotten, because he has a more famous [http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/namefellow namefellow]! [[User:Leoboiko|Leoboiko]] ([[User talk:Leoboiko|talk]])

So... [http://dwarffortresswiki.org/index.php/Planepacked Planepacked]? [[Special:Contributions/173.245.50.145|173.245.50.145]] 05:44, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

The page seems to give a description, but not an explanation of the joke. I still don't get it! Why has Ozymandias been singled out for this treatment? Is there some way in which recursion is particularly appropriate or inappropriate in this case, or has it just been selected arbitrarily? Is the whole joke that recursion is inherently funny? Normally when recursion is used in XKCD it's making a larger point, or cleverly riffing on something in particular. This isn't just Describe XKCD, so I'd love to see an explanation of this comic. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.47|141.101.99.47]] 09:35, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

:The poem Ozymandias, like the statue of the king,can be thought of as a pinnacle of achievement for its civilizarion- in this case, English civilization. So it is entirely possible that one day, after the fall of this civilization, the poem will fill the same role for it that the statue filled for Ozymandias' (fictional) civilization. [[User:Bbruzzo|Bbruzzo]] ([[User talk:Bbruzzo|talk]]) 15:33, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

:May it be that Ozymandias is chosen because of Smith’s poem, where at last London has vanished, suggesting that Shelley’s poem is the last remains of British civilization? --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.193|162.158.91.193]] 10:04, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

:I think Ozymandias was chosen because its opening is particularly famous. Even people who don't know much about poetry are often passingly familiar with it, and there's something funny about playing with well-known classics. And yes, I do believe the joke is that infinite recursion is inherently funny. There's a long tradition of these recursion-jokes among computer scientists and math people (like the "GNU" acronym, or recursive index references), with precedents in xkcd itself. [[User:Leoboiko|Leoboiko]] ([[User talk:Leoboiko|talk]])

In Germany, we have a childrens’ song „Ein Mops kam in die Küche“, which translates as follows (there are slightly different versions, though):

A pug came into the kitchen / and stole an egg from the chef. / Then the chef took his knife / and mashed the pug. // Then many pugs came / to his grave / and set a memorial for him, / where these words were written: // “A pug came into the kitchen …”

Maybe something similar exists in English? --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.193|162.158.91.193]] 10:04, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

:We have:

: This is the song that doesn't end, / Yes, it goes on and on, my friend, / Some people started singing it not knowing what it was, / And they'll continue singing it / Forever, just because [repeat] :''— [[User:Tbc|tbc]] ([[User talk:Tbc|talk]]) 12:34, 29 July 2015 (UTC)''

:There's also:
::I know a song that gets on everybody's nerves, everybody's nerves, everybody's nerves,
::I know a song that gets on everybody's nerves and this is how it goes...[repeat] {{unsigned ip|197.234.243.249}}

:: In Dutch: "Het was nacht, stikdonkere nacht. Veertig rovers zaten rond een vuur. De roverhoofdman stond op een zei: "Het was nacht, stikdonkere nacht... " "
:: Which translates to something along the lines of: "It was night, a pitchblack night. 40 robbers sat round a fire, their leader stood up and said: "It was night, a pitchblack night..." "
:: Sometimes the fire is replaced by the shadow of a dandelion. "..Forty robbers sat in the shadow of a Dandelion, their Chief stood up and said: "It was a dark night, forty robbers sat in the shadow of a dandelion", etc. -- [[Special:Contributions/141.101.104.67|141.101.104.67]] 13:01, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

::: The version I learned is: It was a dark and stormy night / and the good ship Marigold sailed the stormy seas. / The captain staggered down the steps / and said, "Mate, tell us a story!" / and the mate began, / "It was a dark and story night... --[[User:Mflansburg|Mflansburg]] ([[User talk:Mflansburg|talk]]) 15:44, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

:I've heard a very long infinitely recursive song in English, which is a variant of "The Bear Went Over the Mountain". The standard lyrics are:

:: The bear went over the mountain, the bear went over the mountain, the bear went over the mountain to see what he could see / And all that he could see, and all that he could see / Was the other side of the mountain, the other side of the mountain, the other side of the mountain, and that's what he could see.

: Well, the infinite variant goes:

:: The bear went over the mountain the bear went over the mountain, the bear went over the mountain to see what he could see / And all that he could see, and all that he could see / Was a valley in the mountain, a valley in the mountain, a valley in the mountain, and that's what he could see
:: The bear went over the mountain the bear went over the mountain, the bear went over the mountain to see what he could see / And all that he could see, and all that he could see / Was a lake in the valley, a lake in the valley, a lake in the valley, and that's what he could see
:: ... a sailboat on the lake ...
:: ... a man in the sailbot ...
:: ... pants on the man ...
:: ... a pocket in the pants ...
:: ... a nickel in the pocket ...
:: ... a beaver on the nickel ... (Note: I just realized this line only works in Canada, where the five cent coin has a picture of a beaver on it.)
:: ... a hair on the beaver ...
:: ... a flea on the hair ...
:: ... cells in the flea ...
:: ... a prisoner in the cells ...
:: ... pants on the prisoner ...
:: ... a pocket in the pants ...
:: etc.

: I prefer a slightly shorter version which goes from "a pocket in the pants" to "a dime in the pocket", then "a sailboat on the dime" (which again only works in Canada), and back to "a man in the sailboat". [[User:JoeNotCharles|JoeNotCharles]] ([[User talk:JoeNotCharles|talk]]) 15:14, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

:: I thought everyone (American) knew the song (needs music notation) "There's a Hole in the Bottom of the Sea?" One version finally ends with "There's a germ on the flea on the hair on the speck on the spot on the wart on the frog on the bump on the log in the hole in the bottom of the sea." But kids make up all sorts of variations. Or they used to. [[User:Taibhse|Taibhse]] ([[User talk:Taibhse|talk]]) 10:00, 30 July 2015 (UTC)

: There's also [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.30|108.162.215.30]] 20:28, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

:: Yon Yonson - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yon_Yonson
:: Mighty mighty - https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070602235838AA6qSzz {{unsigned ip|108.162.215.30}}

::
Note that the recursion doesn't necessary be infinite. The list of travelers who met each other can have fixed length, for example 10. Imagining that the list is infinite is the joke. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 10:06, 29 July 2015 (UTC)
: I think that might be the point actually, the idea is that with each time someone tells the poem to someone else, it grows by one, for each traveler from an antique land has been told by by a different traveler from an antique land[[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.39|108.162.219.39]] 01:08, 30 July 2015 (UTC)

Should we mention {{w|quines}}, which occur when lists like this end after two iterations, as "Yo, I'm MC Quine and I'm here to say/'Yo, I'm MC Quine and I'm here to say'!" {{unsigned|FourViolas}}

: That's not exactly a quine - a quine is a set of instructions which, when followed, recreates the instructions. If you take MC Quine's quote and write it out, you get just, "Yo, I'm MC Quine and I'm here to say", which doesn't contain the second repetition. To be a quine, you need to find some way that taking just the quoted part will automatically expand to the full statement plus the quote.

: A closer example of a quine: "Q: Pete and Re-Pete were sitting on a bridge. Pete fell off. Who was left? A: Repeat." If you take the answer "repeat" as an instruction, you would repeat the joke, recreating it completely. [[User:JoeNotCharles|JoeNotCharles]] ([[User talk:JoeNotCharles|talk]]) 15:19, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

This reminds me of Theodor Storm's "Schimmelreiter" ([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rider_on_the_White_Horse "The Rider on the White Horse"]) which descends through three nested levels of narrators before it comes to the real story. --[[User:Ulm|ulm]] ([[User talk:Ulm|talk]]) 13:56, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

One connection between recursion and Ozymandias is the phrase "Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?" aka "Who watches the watchmen?" and the character in ''The Watchmen'' named Ozymandias. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.221.51|108.162.221.51]] 14:42, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

Nested Shelleys? Maybe associaing Shelley with shells could be part of the joke? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.115|108.162.216.115]] 16:02, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

I keep trying to see 10, but I keep counting 11 syllables in each line with the exception of the last one. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.210.210|108.162.210.210]] 16:48, 29 July 2015 (UTC)
:You have to read traveler as trav'ler. [[User:Uptonc|Uptonc]] ([[User talk:Uptonc|talk]]) 16:57, 29 July 2015 (UTC)
:: Well, that's just wrong... [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.81|108.162.216.81]] 17:14, 29 July 2015 (UTC)
::: Um... No it's not. There are [http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/traveler?s=t two ways to pronounce it] (trav-uh-ler and trav-ler), kind of like toe-may-toe, toe-mah-toe. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.196|108.162.219.196]] 18:11, 29 July 2015 (UTC)

I think everyone's looking far too hard for something obscure and clever. :) Ozymandias is in the poem described as the "king of kings", which makes him recursively kingly. Hence, the recursion joke. (I went ahead added that to the explanation, it's my first contribution here so hopefully I didn't bypass any explainxkcd wiki house rules) [[User:Orinthe|Orinthe]] ([[User talk:Orinthe|talk]]) 06:24, 30 July 2015 (UTC)

When my brother and I were very young, and stayed overnight at my grandparents, my grandfather would often tell us the following bedtime story, with great seriousness, and many dramatic pauses:

"We were all seated around the camp fire, when the Captain said, to his faithful servant: 'Antonio, Antonio, tell unto us a story.' And Antonio began: "We were all seated around the camp fire, when the Captain said, to his faithful servant: 'Antonio, Antonio, tell unto us a story.' And Antonio began: "We were all seated around the camp fire, when the Captain said, to his faithful servant: 'Antonio, Antonio, tell unto us a story...

By that time we were often asleep.

Talk:1252: Increased Risk

2013-08-23T19:52:17Z

Matthew-e-hackman: Regulatory risk, marlins and lotteries

I think this is to address the old chestnut of "<something> will ''double'' your risk of getting cancer!", or the like, where the risk of getting that cancer (in this example) is maybe 1 in 10,000, so doubling the risk across a population wouldmake that a 1 in 5,000 risk to your health... which you may still consider to be an acceptable gamble if it's something nice (like cheese!) that's apaprently to blame and you'd find abstinence from it gives a barely marginal benefit for a far greater loss of life enjoyment. Also, this sort of figure almost always applies towards a ''specific form'' of cancer, or whatever risk is being discussed, meaning you aren't vastly changing your life expectancy at all. In fact, the likes of opposing "red wine is good/bad for you" studies can be mutually true by this same principle (gain a little risk of one condition, lose a little risk from another). (Note: I don't know of any particular "cheese gives you cancer!" stories doing the rounds, at the moment. I bet they have done, but I only mention it because I actually quite like cheese. And I probably ''wouldn't'' give it up under the above conditions.)

It's also possible that this covers the likes of "<foo> in <country> is 10 times more dangerous than it is <other country>" statements. Perhaps ''only'' ten incidents happened in the former, and a single instance in the latter, out the ''whole'' of each respective country. Or a single incident occured in both, but the second country is ten times the size, so gets 'adjusted for population' in the tables. And, besides which, that was just for one year and was just a statistical blip that will probably revert-towards-the-mean next year.

Finally, for a given risk of some incident happening on the first two trips, with no 'memory' or build-up involved, it pretty much is half-as-likely-again for the incident to have happened (some time!) in three separate trips. (Not quite, if those that lose against the odds and get caught by the incident the first or second trip never get to ''have'' a (second or) third trip... but for negligable odds like thegiven example, of the dog with the handgun, it's near-as-damnit so.) [[Special:Contributions/178.104.103.140|178.104.103.140]] 11:12, 16 August 2013 (UTC)

Where did "dogs with shotguns" come from? I only saw "handgun" in the comic. Besides, I interpreted the risk as being hit by a negligent discharge from the handgun, not being deliberately attacked by the dog. Also, since probabilities are the set of real numbers between 0 and 1 inclusive, there are an uncountable number of them. "A x% increase in a tiny risk is still tiny" is an inductive statement, which means it could only be used to argue that a countable set of numbers is tiny. [[Special:Contributions/76.64.65.200|76.64.65.200]] 12:24, 16 August 2013 (UTC)

:If induction base is uncountable, you can prove it for the whole [0; 1]. For example your induction base may be "every risk under 0.00000000000000000001% is tiny". --[[User:DiEvAl|DiEvAl]] ([[User talk:DiEvAl|talk]]) 12:38, 16 August 2013 (UTC)

::Aha you caught me. I also realized that if a number is tiny, any number smaller than it is also tiny. So if we can prove that 1 is tiny, then we can prove that all numbers between 0 and 1 (known as probabilities) are tiny. [[User:Diszy|Diszy]] ([[User talk:Diszy|talk]]) 15:46, 18 August 2013 (UTC)

I think it's worth mentioning that this comic doesn't [[985|distinguish between percentages and percentage points]]. --[[User:DiEvAl|DiEvAl]] ([[User talk:DiEvAl|talk]]) 12:35, 16 August 2013 (UTC)

Is it the case that doing something three times increases risk by 50% over two times inherently? I feel like this is the case, but it's early, here. Also, I'm not sure Randall is attacked by a dog, he may be using it as a diversion. I think that he's done this before. [[User:Theo|Theo]] ([[User talk:Theo|talk]]) 12:56, 16 August 2013 (UTC)
:(First, good point, DiEvAl, about the percentages/percentage-points. I ''knew'' I'd missed something out in my first thoughts. I actually tend to assume ''against'' percentage points, which is somewhat the opposite from what I've seen in the general public.)
:Actually, depends on how you count it. But I was using the "encounter 'n' incidents per trip", "encounter '2n' incidents per two trips", "encoutner '3n' incidents per three trips" measure, where 3n==2n+50%. But that works best with a baseline of >>1 incidents per trip assumed. In reality, if the chance is a fractional 'p' for an occurance in one instance, it's (1-p) that it ''didn't'' occur thus (1-p)n that it didn't occur in any of 'n' instances and 1-(1-p)n that it did (at least once, possible several times or even all). Not so simple, but for p tending to zero it 'does' converge on 1.5 times for across three what you'd expect for two (albeit because 0*1.5=0). Like they say, "Lies, Damn Lies...", etc. ;) [[Special:Contributions/178.104.103.140|178.104.103.140]] 14:22, 16 August 2013 (UTC)

I don't think Randall is being attacked by a dog at all. What he's saying is that if you are going to think getting attacked by a shark is so likely, then you better be watching out for that never-gonna-happen dog scenario too. [[User:Jillysky|Jillysky]] ([[User talk:Jillysky|talk]]) 13:56, 16 August 2013 (UTC)

Is 0.000001% really "one in a million"?
;If 1% = 1 in 100, then
:0.1% = 1 in a 1,000
:0.01% = 1 in a 10,000
:0.001% = 1 in a 100,000
:0.0001% = 1 in a 1,000,000
:0.00001% = 1 in a 10,000,000
:'''0.000001% = 1 in a 100,000,000'''
Would it be more accurate to leave off the % sign?
Assuming I'm right, I think it'd be less confusing to leave it and reduce the numbers by a couple orders of magnitude.
--Clayton [[Special:Contributions/12.202.74.87|12.202.74.87]] 14:36, 16 August 2013 (UTC)

''If the chance of the dog attack is 0.000000001% (one in a billion) on each visit to the beach, then the chance of attack over two visits is 0.000000002% whereas in three visits it becomes 0.000000003%''

Um, no. Following that logic, if I go to the beach a billion times then I '''will''' get shot by a dog that is packing. Rather, each visit to the beach has it's own odds, like the rolling of dice? On any particular visit there's a one-in-a-billion chance. And that's true on each subsequent visit as well. Tuesday's visit to the beach isn't twice as dangerous just because I was at the beach on Monday. [[User:CFoxx|CFoxx]] ([[User talk:CFoxx|talk]]) 16:26, 16 August 2013 (UTC)
:For each visit that is the case. Because it's one visit, that's true. However, if (time not being a factor) one were to have a billion visits planned, the odds over all would be increased. Pretty sure that overall this means that you got the joke faster than I did. Thanks for the clarification! [[User:Theo|Theo]] ([[User talk:Theo|talk]]) 17:06, 16 August 2013 (UTC)
::The odds overall may increase with multiple visits. But not, at least, at the rate listed. Otherwise that billionth trip (if one survived that long as one is likely to do) would be certain death. [[User:CFoxx|CFoxx]] ([[User talk:CFoxx|talk]]) 17:30, 16 August 2013 (UTC)
:::Correct. Technically, the odds we are worried about are the "probability of being shot one or more times by a dog". So if the probability is 1/10^9 for any given day, than the odds of not being shot are (10^9-1)/10^9 for any given day, and the odds of not being shot over three days are (10^9-1)^3/10^27, and then the odds of being shot one or more times are 1-((10^9-1)^3/10^27), which is roughly 2.999999997000000001/10^9. That is close, but slightly less, than 3/10^9. [[Special:Contributions/206.174.12.203|206.174.12.203]] 18:01, 16 August 2013 (UTC)Toby Ovod-Everett
::::Absolute incorrect: You always have to look at the single event. More events do not belong together, you always have the same probability at each single event. So, even 10 billion events may or may NOT result in a disaster. Math isn't easy.--[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 19:17, 16 August 2013 (UTC)
:::::I believe what CFoxx was saying is that if the odds of something happening on any given day are one in three, then the odds of that thing happening at least once during a four day period is NOT 4/3rds! I was pointing out that the proper way to calculate the odds for a four day period is to say that the odds of it not happening on any given day are two in three. You take that probability and raise it to the fourth power, giving the odds that it won't happen at all during a four day period of 16/81, thus the odds that it will happen during that four day period is 65/81. I then did that same calculation for the 1 in a billion chance per day and applied it to the three day period, and recognized that he was correct that the true probability of the event happening one or more times over a three day period was not three times the probability of it happening on any given day, but also noted that the difference for a 1 in a billion chance over a small period is pretty close to the simplistic (but incorrect) approach. My rough estimate for the "one in a billion per day" event happening one or more times during a billion day period is 63.21%.[[Special:Contributions/206.174.12.203|206.174.12.203]] 21:33, 16 August 2013 (UTC)Toby Ovod-Everett
::::::Wow, we still have many great scientists here!--[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 21:46, 16 August 2013 (UTC)
::::::THANK YOU, Toby! [[User:CFoxx|CFoxx]] ([[User talk:CFoxx|talk]]) 18:09, 17 August 2013 (UTC)

Just a thought: is the title text a reference to the Sorites paradox? --AJ [[Special:Contributions/80.42.221.105|80.42.221.105]] 17:25, 16 August 2013 (UTC)

Rats! I made the newbie mistake of editing something before I found the discussion page. I looked for it, honest I did! I see that UTC has already brought up what I referred to as "Cueball's error" in my (pre-log-in) edit. I did find it hard to believe I'd be the first xkcd fan to notice this error. I think this is worth addressing in the explanation, though I of course won't take offense if someone wants to obliterate my edit and start over. (CLSI){{unsigned|CLSI}}

Maybe he means this: Florida man shot by his dog, police say http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/26/17107343-florida-man-shot-by-his-dog-police-say?lite{{unsigned|Jb}}

Saying that unfortunately Cueball is mistaken in his calculations because he said 50% instead of 49.99999992% is a bit of an exaggeration. [[User:Xhfz|Xhfz]] ([[User talk:Xhfz|talk]]) 20:19, 16 August 2013 (UTC)

;Chaos at explain section
Please stop adding this, it does not explain the comic, it only belongs to this discussion page:

:Note that the 50% figure is an approximation. Assuming the odds of being attacked by a dog is ''x'', the odds of being attacked by a dog at least once in two visits is 1 - (1-''x'')2. The odds of being attacked at least once in three visits is 1 - (1-''x'')3. Therefore, if one visit has one in a billion probability of attack, then two visits have not 2 in a billion, but 1.999999999 in a billion. Similarly, three visits have a probability of 2.999999997 in a billion. Saying 50% instead of 49.99999992% is a reasonable approximation.

:Unfortunately, [[Cueball]] is mistaken in his calculations. This is easier to see with an event that has greater probability, such as a coin toss. Assuming the odds of getting heads in one flip is .5, the odds of getting heads at least once in two flips is .75 (i.e., 1 minus [.5 X .5], the odds of getting tails both times), and the odds of getting heads at least once in three flips is .875 (1 minus [.5 X .5 X .5], the odds of getting three tails in a row). Getting heads in three flips is not 50% more likely than getting heads in two flips. With very low probabilities (such as the probability of attack by a dog swimming with a handgun), Cueball's calculation gives an extremely close approximation of the actual probability, but one can't apply the same logic to events of just any probability.

::Cueball says *statistically* the risk of some bizarre event increases 50%. This is essentially correct as many have pointed out that 49.99999999 is not really statistically different than 50. What is likely bothering a lot of people (including myself) is that the explainxkcd description states "If the chance of the dog attack is one per billion on each visit to the beach, then the chance of attack over two visits *is* two per billion whereas in three visits it *becomes* three per billion." There are no weasel words like "approximately", "about", "around", etc. This reminds people of flatly incorrect uses of probabilities like the one you describe. But surely the probability of getting heads from a fair coin toss is not on a similar order of magnitude as the probability that a swimming dog shoots someone with a handgun. [[User:S|S]] ([[User talk:S|talk]]) 00:40, 17 August 2013 (UTC)
:::''What is likely bothering a lot of people (including myself) is that the explainxkcd description states "If the chance of the dog attack is one per billion on each visit to the beach, then the chance of attack over two visits *is* two per billion whereas in three visits it *becomes* three per billion." There are no weasel words like "approximately", "about", "around", etc.'' '''Exactly.''' Explanations here have been very helpful in explaining some of the more scientific aspects of things Randall includes. Noting this one makes a (albeit slight) mistake in that regard is appropriate. (And the irony of incorrectly using probabilities in explaining a comic about how people do that is amusing.) [[User:CFoxx|CFoxx]] ([[User talk:CFoxx|talk]]) 18:15, 17 August 2013 (UTC)

I had to think of http://xkcd.com/1102/ when reading the first paragraph of the explainxkcd description. (The context is different, but the dubious use of percentages is the same.) [[User:S|S]] ([[User talk:S|talk]]) 00:40, 17 August 2013 (UTC)

;Proof
I believe Cuball's calculation is way off. The odds of a dog attack should increase by 50% when looking at two beach trips rather than one. But the odds of an attack occurring with 3 visits should only increase by about 16.67%. This can be seen by analyzing a fair dice roll or a coin toss. Unless I am missing something, even with extremely small probabilities, this will hold. Can anyone write a proof to show otherwise?{{unsigned ip|174.98.234.239}}
:As far as I understand it: doing something twice doubles your chance of getting the desired outcome. For example, you want to role a dice and get a six. If you role it twice, you have double the chance of getting at least one six. If you role it three times you have triple the chance of getting a six; in other words you increase it from two chances to three chances, which is an increase of 50%. {{unsigned ip|213.86.4.78}}
::It doubles the likely number of sixes, but does not double the chance of getting at least one six. This is because there is a small chance of getting two sixes, and while that counts as two sixes for the number of occurrences, it still only counts as one chance of getting at least one six. The easiest way to visualize this is to look at the probability that you won't get a six in any given roll of the die, which is 5/6ths. Each time you roll, the probability you won't get a six at all goes down by 5/6ths. So the probability for two rolls is 25/36ths, and thus the probability of getting one or more sixes in two rolls is 11/36ths. This is 1/36th less than 2/6ths, and 1/36th is the probability of getting two sixes. Similar (although more complicated) logic applies to rolling it three times, for which the probability of getting at least one 6 is 91/216ths (not 108/216ths, as the naive approach would imply). As others (CFoxx) have pointed out, if you roll a die 6 times, there is still a chance you won't get any sixes. If you roll it a million times, it is still possible (albeit very, very, very unlikely) that you wouldn't get any sixes! As far as the 50% and 16.67% figures given by the original poster, I believe those were calculated for events that have a 50% probability for each event. The increase in probability from 1 to 2 events where 1/x is the probability looks like (1-(1-1/x)^2)/(1/x)-1, which is (1-(1-2/x+1/x^2))*x-1 or (2/x-1/x^2)*x-1 or (2-1/x)-1 or 1-1/x. Thus for an event like a fair coin toss, the increase in probability for two tosses over one toss is 1/2. For a 6-sided die, the increase in probability is 5/6th. For a 1/billion, the increased probability for one or more occurrence for two events compared with one event is 0.999999999. Finally, the probability of the second event being the desired event is always the same. It is unchanged by the first event. It is the probability of either (or both) of the events being desired that we are calculating here. If the first die roll is a six, the probability of the second being a six is still 1/6. If the first die roll is not a six, the probability of the second being a six is still 1/6 (assuming a fair die). But the probability of either or both being a six is the absence of any information about the two rolls is not 2/6, but rather 11/36! [[Special:Contributions/206.174.12.203|206.174.12.203]] 17:06, 21 August 2013 (UTC)Toby Ovod-Everett

I shared this comic with risk-assessor friends in Massachusetts and got the following responses:
"Tee-hee. If you change the beach to Chatham, however, it's just not as funny!" (Cape Cod beaches have new signs warning of great white shark attacks: http://www.bostonglobe.com/magazine/2013/08/17/chatham-bold-attempt-become-new-england-great-white-shark-capital/TtfcEZsAo6PN7lUoBKe1kO/story.html)
"Or in our line of work, we worry (in MA) if the risk of cancer is 0.00002 but not if it is 0.00001 or less, which, as the base rate of cancer is around 40%, means that we're worried about a cancer incidence rate of 0.40002 but not 0.40001. And one could almost argue that it'd be pretty hard to distinguish these two, and even that if we presented risks in this form to the general public, they might wonder why we're so concerned..."
"Makes you wonder what the risk was for that Marlin coming on board that boat in Florida - http://www.wfla.com/story/23239959/350-pound-marlin-jumps-in-boat-landing-on-crew?"
I guess it all depends on your point of view. One might argue that the "gambler's fallacy" is the primary driver of lottery income, which, according to the North American Association of State and Provincial Lotteries: "During fiscal year 2012 (which for most jurisdictions ended June 30) U.S. lottery sales totaled $78 billion ($US). Canadian sales reached $9.3 billion ($Can)." (http://www.naspl.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=content&menuid=14&pageid=1020). Is "Remember to Play all Lottery Games Responsibly" an oxymoron?

Talk:1204: Detail

2013-04-26T12:46:38Z

Matthew-e-hackman: Shouldn't the vertical axis be reversed?

I'm not certain as to what the date should be, as I'm in New Zealand. I've taken one off of my current date (26th) as a precaution. Anyone who knows the right date (or right timezone) please edit it accordingly. --[[User:ZephireNZ|ZephireNZ]] ([[User talk:ZephireNZ|talk]]) 04:25, 26 April 2013 (UTC)

This comic arrive a day early, right?[[User:Afhoke|Afhoke]] ([[User talk:Afhoke|talk]]) 04:42, 26 April 2013 (UTC)
:Most likely a result of the time machine. [[Special:Contributions/184.66.160.91|184.66.160.91]] 05:02, 26 April 2013 (UTC)

Any idea if the typo Ne*ghborhood is intentional and what it might refer to? [[Special:Contributions/141.17.83.10|141.17.83.10]] 07:11, 26 April 2013 (UTC)

Forget electronic microscope. Where do you think they would be STORING the maps? Nearby galaxies? Other dimension? .... oh, I see: Black Mesa Research Facility is a google service company researching storage technologies. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 08:13, 26 April 2013 (UTC)
Shouldn't the vertical axis be reversed? If the Plank length is the theoretical smallest length, wouldn't most readers expect the smallest value to be lowest on the vertical axis? Thus the log scale line would angle downward, more clearly indicating that the resolution lengthy is getting smaller with time. The way it it is drawn, the first impression might be that the resolution length is increasing, not decreasing. Just a suggestion. XKCD is my favorite comic because I learn something new almost every day!