1159: Countdown

2014-02-18T09:16:47Z

Metworst: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1159
| date = January 11, 2013
| title = Countdown
| image = countdown.png
| titletext = For all we know, the odds are in our favor.
}}

==Explanation==
The comic shows a {{w|seven segment display}} (aka [http://www.ece.mtu.edu/labs/EElabs/EE2304/pages/bcd_to_seven_segment_TAversion.html calculator-style numbers]) with a countdown. [[Black Hat]] explains that it is a countdown to a {{w|supervolcano}} eruption. However, an unfortunately placed picture blocks view of the full display. Due to the form of a seven-segment display, the first digit could be 0, 6, or 8, and five digits are completely blocked by the picture, which Black Hat lazily or teasingly refuses to move.

The fully visible part starts at 2409, and based on the pace of the scene, it seems to be in seconds. Thus, it is unclear when the eruption might occur. If the obscured digits are all 0s, it could be as soon as 40 minutes. On the other hand, if the obscured digits are '899 999', there's another 2.85 million years to go; if they are '000 001', we have a little more than 3 years.

The title text: "For all we know, the odds are in our favor" could imply the assumption that since we can't see the digits behind the picture, we can treat them as random. If so, chances are only 1 in 300 000 they are all zeroes. However, because of statistical principles such as {{w|Benford's law}}, the digits are not entirely random, and the {{w|odds}} are higher than 1/299 999 for all the digits to be zero, since the middle 4 digits are zero. The title text might also be a reference to {{w|The Hunger Games trilogy}}, with a common phrase in the series being, "May the odds be ever in your favour."

In an alternative view, the strip is not about pondering at distributions of digits on an oracle countdown. It's more of a grim view of our natural disasters prediction capabilities. As they say – the question is not if it will happen but when it will happen. "Move the picture" would mean investing into research and warning systems - that would correspond to shifting the picture to the left. Disregard the 40 minutes - think of it as arbitrary interval of interests, minuscule as we folks have them, say - one's lifetime; or grimmer yet - some {{w|term of office}}. Because, hey, year after year passes and no apocalypse has been observed - the empirical odds are low indeed.

Using a countdown theme for comic #1159 could be a subtle joke, as 11:59/23:59 is one minute to midnight.

==Transcript==
:[Counter: ____00002409]
:Cueball: What is that?
:Black Hat: Countdown.

:[Counter: ____00002400]
:Cueball: To what?
:Black Hat: Supervolcano, I think. I forget which one.

:[Counter: ____00002396]

:[Counter: ____00002382]
:Cueball: Maybe we should move that picture?
:Black Hat: Too hard to reach. It's probably fine.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Black Hat]]
[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Statistics]]

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1159: Countdown