2357: Polls vs the Street

2020-09-10T18:43:11Z

RandallMunroe:

{{comic
| number = 2357
| date = September 9, 2020
| title = Polls vs the Street
| image = polls_vs_the_street.png
| titletext = Other pollsters complain about declining response rates, but our poll showed that 96% of respondents would be 'somewhat likely' or 'very likely' to agree to answer a series of questions for a survey.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by <CANDIDATE π>. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic discusses getting data or opinions through a study (polls) or by getting them anecdotally (on the street). The phrase "voice on the street" is commonly used by news reporters who get opinions on issues by literally asking people walking by what they think, and has been previously mentioned (and derided) in [[756: Public Opinion]].

Many news organizations, and other data-driven institutions, conduct or commission polls to assess the opinions of the general public. These polls generally rely on asking a randomly selected and anonymous set of people a set of consistent, prepared and deliberately crafted questions about their opinions, experiences, and intents. The results of these polls are traditionally held to reflect the views of the public as a whole, within certain margins for error. Many news shows also conduct "man-on-the-street" interviews (more formally known as ''{{w|vox populi}}'', "voice of the people"), to provide a human face of "the public" and engage viewers more. Many pollsters, pundits, and politicians worry that polling data may not accurately reflect the true trends in public opinion, as in the infamous "{{w|Dewey Defeats Truman}}" newspaper headline, and so White Hat is here extolling the virtues of interviewing [https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Appeal-to-Common-Folk "real people"] to get at that ground truth.

White Hat suggests that, while polls suggest "candidate X" is more favored, the people on the street that White Hat interviews are more supportive of "candidate Y". He implies that his experiences reflect reality better than the polls. There are a number of reasons why polls may not be entirely representative. The sampling method might not be genuinely random, some groups might be less likely than others to respond to a poll, and it's argued that some people express views that they consider to be more socially acceptable, even in anonymous polls, but vote differently in actual elections (examples include the "{{w|Bradley effect}}" and the "{{w|shy Tory factor}}"). Despite these concerns, there is little evidence that individual conversations do a better job at determining public opinion

This comic is very likely a reference to the {{w|2020 Presidential Election}}, which was ongoing at the time of the comic's publication. Most polls showed Democratic candidate Joe Biden polling ahead of incumbent Donald Trump, but Trump and his supporters frequently argued that the polls were inaccurate, often arguing that they personally knew or talked to many Trump supporters, and few Biden supporters. At the same time, the fact that Trump won the 2016 election astonished many who had seldom met Trump supporters in their own lives and within their own social circles. This kind of anecdotal evidence is generally a poor basis for gauging public support, for multiple reasons. Politics in the US are frequently regional, so sampling in a single area is unlikely to be representative of the whole country, or even a whole state. It's not uncommon for gathering places (both physical and virtual) to attract people from one political group more than another, producing a skewed sample. If someone uses their own perception, rather than rigorous analysis, {{W|confirmation bias}} is likely to have a major impact (a person might pay more attention to supporters of their preferred candidate, and ignore political opponents).

This strip lampoons such thinking, as it quickly becomes clear that White Hat's methodology is heavily driven by selection bias. He's apparently talking only to the residents of his town, and extrapolating those results to the whole country. By that logic, he would conclude that ''everyone'' has visited his town, and most people live there. It is true that he's getting "ground truth", but it's also true that he's only sampling a very small (and highly idiosyncratic) part of the whole population.

In the final panel, White Hat claims that, contrary to polls stating that playing in traffic is unpopular, everybody he meets on the street enjoys it. This is a joke about the phrase "on the street". Usually this phrase means people walking on the sidewalk beside a road, but White Hat is presumably taking the phrase literally and interviewing people he finds on the roadway. In the US, roads are generally reserved for motor vehicles, and walking or standing in the roadway for long periods is dangerous and usually illegal. The ones who are found on the roadway would generally be from the small fraction of the population who have no qualms about darting around traffic on foot, despite the dangers. Hence the people he interviews enjoy playing in traffic, though this is far from common among the American public.

The title text is a joke about {{w|selection bias}} and {{w|tautology}}. People who don't feel like taking surveys wouldn't get as far as answering a survey question about survey questions.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon. Please include why this is incomplete}}
:White Hat: Polls are just numbers.
:White Hat: You have to talk to people on the ''street''.

:White Hat: Polls ''say'' most people support <Candidate X>.
:White Hat: But the people I talk to on the ''street'' support <Candidate Y>.

:White Hat: Polls ''claim'' most people don't live in my town and have never been here.
:White Hat: But the people I meet on the ''street'' tell a very different story.

:White Hat: According to ''polls'', most people don't like playing in traffic.
:White Hat: So why do I never seem to meet these people on the ''street''?

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Politics]]

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2357: Polls vs the Street