explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

1061: EST

2025-02-10T00:57:04Z

Regex user: australia's eastern standard time is also usually referred to as EST

{{comic
| number = 1061
| date = May 28, 2012
| title = EST
| image = est.png
| titletext = The month names are the same, except that the fourth month only has the name 'April' in even-numbered years, and is otherwise unnamed.
}}

==Explanation==
This comic pokes fun of attempts to "fix" the calendar by making it simpler or more rational, which inevitably result in a system just as complicated. This is an example of the paradox in complexity theory that if you attempt to simplify a system of problems by creating a new system of evaluation for the problems you often have instead made the problem more complex than it was originally.

[[Randall]] advertises his idea for a "Universal Calendar for a Universal Planet". He combines {{w|calendar#Calendars in use|calendar}} definitions with {{w|Time zone|time zone}} definitions. The abbreviation '''EST''' in this comic stands for ''Earth Standard Time'' (hence the title), but it is in itself a joke on the American {{w|Eastern Time Zone|Eastern Standard Time}} and the Australian {{w|Australian Eastern Standard Time|Eastern Standard Time}}. In the rest of the explanation, EST refers to the comic's Earth Standard Time.

===Length of year===
Because there are approximately 365.2422 days in a {{w|solar year}}, various calendars use different means to keep the calendar year in sync with the solar year and the seasons. The Julian Calendar, for example, has leap days every four years, giving it an average year length of 365.25 days. The most widely used system is the {{w|Gregorian calendar}}, which also has leap days every four years, but skips leap days in years divisible by 100 unless the year is also divisible by 400, the latter additions come from Earth's {{w|axial precession}}. This gives it an average year length of 365.2425 days, which is very close to the length of a solar year (see detailed explanation in this video: ''[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82p-DYgGFjI Earth's motion around the Sun, not as simple as I thought]''). {{w|Calendar reform|Other calendars}} have been proposed, some of which do not count leap days and special "festival days" as a day of the week, in order to make every date fall on the same day of the week every year.

*At "24 hours 4 minutes", EST days are longer, though there are only 360 of them in the year. The extra 4 minutes over the course of 360 days adds up to one standard day, so Randall's EST calendar would at this point have a year that is 361 standard days long. The 24 hours plus 4 minutes length may be a reference to {{w|sidereal day}}, whose duration is 24 hours ''minus'' 4 minutes.

*Running the clock backwards for 4 hours after every full moon gives 8 additional hours at each full moon, twelve or thirteen times in a year. Because a thirteenth full moon will occur once every 2.7 solar years on average, this modification adds 4.1228 standard days to an EST year, bringing it to 365.1228 days.

*The doubling of the non-prime numbers of the first non-reversed hour after each solstice and equinox is a final, very complicated way to bring Randall's EST year in extremely close sync with the solar year. There are 17 prime numbers between 0 and 59 and 43 non-primes. There are 2 equinoxes and 2 solstices each year, so a total of 4x43 = 172 minutes will occur twice. This brings the average length of Randall's EST year to 365.2422 standard days, equal to the solar year to four decimal places.

===Claimed benefits===
Many of the claimed benefits for the calendar are highly dubious:
*While it is fairly ''simple'' to describe, EST is far from simple to understand or put in practice. Clocks in particular would have to regularly undertake very complicated processes like running backwards or duplicating non-prime minutes.
*EST does appear to be fairly ''clearly defined''.
*EST fails completely to be ''unambiguous''. Following each full moon, four hours occur three times, twice forward and once backward. Several minutes are also duplicated, making times during those periods ambiguous.
*The only way EST is ''free of historical baggage'' is that it breaks free of any sensible bits of historical baggage; it keeps such things as the 30-day month and 12-month year, but adopts a different (and variable) length of day that would make it wildly out of sync with the Earth's day-night cycle.
*EST is ''compatible with old units'', as far as seconds, minutes, and hours are concerned, though not for days, months, or years.
*EST is indeed very ''precisely synced with the solar cycle''. The joke is that this has nothing to do with the day/night cycle or the Earth's yearly orbital cycle; the {{w|solar cycle}} is a period of magnetic fluctuation within the sun, lasting 11 Earth years.
*EST is ''free of leap years'', though some EST years are 8 hours longer than others on account of having an extra full moon.
*A calendar ''amenable to date math'' makes it easy to find the length of time between two dates and times by having standardized periods of time. The complex variability of the length of EST years, days, and hours mean it is only ''intermittently'' amenable to date math, which is to say not at all.

===Other features===
The features of the calendar get increasingly bizarre as the description proceeds:

*The {{w|Epoch (reference date)|epoch}} for EST is set by reference to the {{w|Julian calendar}}, which was superseded by the {{w|Gregorian calendar}}. The Epoch would be January 14, 1970 in the Gregorian calendar. January 1, 1970 in the Gregorian calendar is the epoch of the {{w|Unix time}}.

*The different zone for the United Kingdom is a reference to 1 yard being equal to 0.9144 meters, a pun on using {{w|imperial units}} instead of the {{w|metric system}}. This has been the joke before in [[526: Converting to Metric]] and is also mentioned in [[1643: Degrees]].

*Randall does not like {{w|daylight saving time}} (DST) very much, as has been made clear in [[:Category:Daylight saving time|several comics]] both before and after this one. See Narnian time below. (There's possibly another level to this joke: if time doesn't pass, it's ''saved'', fulfilling DST in a literal fashion.)

*Narnian time is a reference to the fictitious world of {{w|Narnia (world)|Narnia}} in {{w|CS Lewis}}' book {{w|The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe}} and its sequels. In Narnia, time passes much more quickly than in the real world. You could be in Narnia for several days and only a few minutes would have passed in the real world. However, synchronizing this effect would be impossible because it is not a consistent rate; it fluctuates wildly based on the whims of drama and magic. This and the DST mentioned above should be seen as a pair. Because when a country goes into DST time may not pass, which is basically what happens (more or less) when a child enters into Narnia. Whereas in EST Narnian time is synchronized to normal time, which DST is but for the one hour difference in the real calendar. Using the weird Narnian time was used as the plot in the bottom left drawing in [[821: Five-Minute Comics: Part 3]].

*The Gregorian calendar does not include the year "0"; after "1" BC the next year is "1" AD. Randall's invention fixes this according to correct mathematics, only to reintroduce the problem immediately by arbitrarily omitting the year 1958. The year 1958 is significant because January 1, 1958 is the epoch (time zero) in {{w|International Atomic Time}} (TAI), which is part of the basis for {{w|Coordinated Universal Time}} (UTC). (The main difference is that TAI doesn't add leap seconds.)

*According to the title text, the month of April would become unnamed on odd-numbered years. Although this may have no impact on the mathematics of timekeeping, it would impede ability to refer to the month in writing or conversation. Notably, {{w|April Fools' Day}} could be restricted to the even-numbered years, else observants would be exclaiming the word "Fools!" without the usual informative "April" prefix.

==Transcript==
:[Caption above the frame:]
:xkcd presents
:[In large letters:] <big>'''Earth Standard Time'''</big>
:[In regular text:] (EST)
:'''A universal calendar for a universal planet'''
:[In small, grey letters:] EST is...
:Simple • Clearly defined • Unambiguous
:Free of historical baggage • Compatible with old units
:Precisely synced with the solar cycle • Free of leap years
:Intermittently amenable to date math

:[Inside the frame a list of the details concerning EST is shown:]
:Units
:Second: 1 S.I. second
:Minute: 60 seconds
:Hour: 60 minutes
:Day: 1444 minutes (24 hours 4 minutes)
:Month: 30 days
:Year: 12 months

:Rules
:For 4 hours after every full moon, run clocks backward.
:The non-prime-numbered minutes of the first full non-reversed hour after a solstice or equinox happen twice.

:[In two columns the "Epoch" is put into a contrasting juxtaposition to "Time Zones", and the text is smaller:]
:Epoch
:00:00:00 EST, January 1st, 1970 = 00:00:00 GMT, January 1st, 1970 (Julian Calendar)
:Time Zones
:The two EST time zones are ''EST'' and ''EST (United Kingdom)''. These are the same except that the UK second is 0.9144 standard seconds.

:[The text returns to regular size except when trying to fit text into a space:]
:Daylight saving: Countries may enter DST, but no time may pass there.
:Narnian Time: Synchronized✔
:Year Zero: EST ''does'' have a year 0. (However, there is no 1958.)

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Calendar]]
[[Category:Time]]
[[Category:Daylight saving time]]
[[Category:Astronomy]]
[[Category:Chronicles of Narnia]]

Talk:3039: Human Altitude

2025-01-22T11:15:30Z

Regex user: add comment

I splurged a few paragraphs to try to deal with each detail (and a few things not ''directly'' obvious, but related). However, it's a mess and here (UK) it's basically past my bedtime and I have an early(ish) start tomorrow so... I know that if I had spent another half hour on it, it would have been tighter (less florid?), and would be linking to Yuri Gagarin, Montgolfier, Hubble, man-capable chinese kites, the likes of George Cayley, etc. And I never actually ''mentioned'' the Title Text, though the last paragraph I put is sort of relevent so might just need an "In the title text, it says ..., and, as it happens, ...". I shall leave it up to the editing-gods as to whether my sacrifice is acceptable or entirely in vain... Such is life! And so, goodnight. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.205.119|172.68.205.119]] 01:39, 18 January 2025 (UTC)
:I linked up a couple Wikipedia articles with [[Template:w]] and wish I could add all of those things, but alas: today’s the last day of the semester on a 3 day weekend here in the States and I’ve been sick all week. I’m going to be going now to work on my missing assignments and hopefully finish them, really wish that we can finish up the explanation as quick as we usually do! '''[[User:42.book.addict|42.book.addict]][[User talk:42.book.addict|Talk to me!]]''' 01:48, 18 January 2025 (UTC)
It seems strange how jagged this is and how low the lows are. Since roughly 1930 (certainly since 1940 at the very latest) someone, somewhere in the world has been flying in an airplane, at a minimum of probably 4.5km for the lowest person. And since like 1955 there's always at least someone over like 7km roughly, and since the jet age like 10km+. This isn't the kind of carelessness that xkcd is known for, unless I'm missing something.[[User:Kchinger|Kchinger]] ([[User talk:Kchinger|talk]]) 03:27, 18 January 2025 (UTC)kchinger
:The Apollo part of the graph implies an at least weekly, probably daily or finer resolution. Aviation unlikely reached 4.5 km above surface on a daily basis until transpacific high altitude airliners became a regularity well after WW2. Planes of the 1930s could achieve greater heights, but usually only attempted when moutains forced them to (so it was not height above ground) and high altitude Zeppelin bombers of WW1 did not fly on a daily basis, sometimes leaving week long gaps between campaigns. However, the pre-airplane lows are still wrong: Pole vaulting has been documented since ancient egypts for crossing of crevices, bodies of water, etc. giving a guaranteed minimum of 2-3 meters. Cliff jumping in the 10s of meters range is also likely to have occured daily somewhere on the globe long before the 20th century and I would not be surprised if some tyrannt created a phase of more than 100 m daily by intensive cliff throwing. (As with the ancient chineses kite observation flights, it might be interesting to extend this graph well into the past, at least up to Spartan postnatal parenthood planning.) [[Special:Contributions/172.70.250.194|172.70.250.194]] 16:06, 18 January 2025 (UTC)
::''Aviation unlikely reached 4.5 km above surface on a daily basis until transpacific high altitude airliners became a regularity well after WW2. Planes of the 1930s could achieve greater heights, but usually only attempted when moutains forced them to...'' The limit is the humans. Past 10k or 15k feet (~4.5km) they go loopy then pass out. Pressurized cabins are costly. Wiley Post flew past 17,000 ft (to 50kft!) in 1934 with a pot on his head, after two other suits split their seams. War forces high flight: the B-17 crews had oxygen bottles and electric heat suits; they did fly about every day but thin air was the least of their problems. B-25 was pressurized but not nice inside. The Constellation (the world's finest tri-motor) was one of the first shirtsleeve cabins, to 24,000 ft (7,300m), but was a very premium ride. The DC-2, DC-3, and DC-4 were unpressurized (a few test DC-4s tried it). Piston engine output tends to zero by 55k ft, even with supercharger. The real move to high altitude comes with turbojets (Comet is credited with first pressurized production passenger plane), Boeing 707, Caravelle, DC8, etc which often work better far above 20k feet. --[[User:PRR|PRR]] ([[User talk:PRR|talk]]) 20:09, 18 January 2025 (UTC)
:::While pesky waterbags limit the altitude of passenger aircraft, military, scientific and perhaps even postal/fright aviation went past 4.5 km without pressurized cabins. As mentioned, London was bombed at the end of WW1 from Zeppelins with regular service ceilings well above 6 km, the record was set at 7.3 km. And these did not even carry oxygen for the full flight time, as did record attempts. Take a link to the first flights above Everest in the early 30s: https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/first-flight-expedition-everest-1933/ However, this is all record/rare stuff for top peaks. With overlapping nights in Europa and America, the global low of the 30s was probably limited by some BOAC cruisers flying 500 to 1.000 m above the sea or some valley floor in southeast Asia. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.148.59|172.71.148.59]] 22:19, 20 January 2025 (UTC)

For the "Apollo bits", I actually have (fairly) precise data, but the question is whether the spiky bits resemble the reality at all. Here's a version with accurately positioned timestamps, but with the the altitude normalised. Launch is at bottom, time in lunar orbit is at top. To keep the data short I have removed the 'oscillation in orbit" of them all (except for 13, which ''just'' looped around and came straight back out again), and the track of the landers (as never really gets any ''further'' away, averaged over a lunar orbiter orbit) as these things aren't really isn't visible if overviewing the whole program. Blue=orbit-only, Green=orbit-with-landing, Magenta is 13's mission. All sat on a month-start scale (thicker lines are year-starts), for reference.
{{cot|Apollo.SVG}}
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="no"?>
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="25174 0 1499 500" >
<g id="monthlines" opacity="0.15" stroke="black">
<line x1="25204" y1="0" x2="25204" y2="500" stroke-width="5" id="1/Jan/1969"/>
<line x1="25235" y1="0" x2="25235" y2="500" id="1/Feb/1969"/>
<line x1="25263" y1="0" x2="25263" y2="500" id="1/Mar/1969"/>
<line x1="25294" y1="0" x2="25294" y2="500" id="1/Apr/1969"/>
<line x1="25324" y1="0" x2="25324" y2="500" id="1/May/1969"/>
<line x1="25355" y1="0" x2="25355" y2="500" id="1/Jun/1969"/>
<line x1="25385" y1="0" x2="25385" y2="500" id="1/Jul/1969"/>
<line x1="25416" y1="0" x2="25416" y2="500" id="1/Aug/1969"/>
<line x1="25447" y1="0" x2="25447" y2="500" id="1/Sep/1969"/>
<line x1="25477" y1="0" x2="25477" y2="500" id="1/Oct/1969"/>
<line x1="25508" y1="0" x2="25508" y2="500" id="1/Nov/1969"/>
<line x1="25538" y1="0" x2="25538" y2="500" id="1/Dec/1969"/>
<line x1="25569" y1="0" x2="25569" y2="500" stroke-width="5" id="1/Jan/1970"/>
<line x1="25600" y1="0" x2="25600" y2="500" id="1/Feb/1970"/>
<line x1="25628" y1="0" x2="25628" y2="500" id="1/Mar/1970"/>
<line x1="25659" y1="0" x2="25659" y2="500" id="1/Apr/1970"/>
<line x1="25689" y1="0" x2="25689" y2="500" id="1/May/1970"/>
<line x1="25720" y1="0" x2="25720" y2="500" id="1/Jun/1970"/>
<line x1="25750" y1="0" x2="25750" y2="500" id="1/Jul/1970"/>
<line x1="25781" y1="0" x2="25781" y2="500" id="1/Aug/1970"/>
<line x1="25812" y1="0" x2="25812" y2="500" id="1/Sep/1970"/>
<line x1="25842" y1="0" x2="25842" y2="500" id="1/Oct/1970"/>
<line x1="25873" y1="0" x2="25873" y2="500" id="1/Nov/1970"/>
<line x1="25903" y1="0" x2="25903" y2="500" id="1/Dec/1970"/>
<line x1="25934" y1="0" x2="25934" y2="500" stroke-width="5" id="1/Jan/1971"/>
<line x1="25965" y1="0" x2="25965" y2="500" id="1/Feb/1971"/>
<line x1="25993" y1="0" x2="25993" y2="500" id="1/Mar/1971"/>
<line x1="26024" y1="0" x2="26024" y2="500" id="1/Apr/1971"/>
<line x1="26054" y1="0" x2="26054" y2="500" id="1/May/1971"/>
<line x1="26085" y1="0" x2="26085" y2="500" id="1/Jun/1971"/>
<line x1="26115" y1="0" x2="26115" y2="500" id="1/Jul/1971"/>
<line x1="26146" y1="0" x2="26146" y2="500" id="1/Aug/1971"/>
<line x1="26177" y1="0" x2="26177" y2="500" id="1/Sep/1971"/>
<line x1="26207" y1="0" x2="26207" y2="500" id="1/Oct/1971"/>
<line x1="26238" y1="0" x2="26238" y2="500" id="1/Nov/1971"/>
<line x1="26268" y1="0" x2="26268" y2="500" id="1/Dec/1971"/>
<line x1="26299" y1="0" x2="26299" y2="500" stroke-width="5" id="1/Jan/1972"/>
<line x1="26330" y1="0" x2="26330" y2="500" id="1/Feb/1972"/>
<line x1="26359" y1="0" x2="26359" y2="500" id="1/Mar/1972"/>
<line x1="26390" y1="0" x2="26390" y2="500" id="1/Apr/1972"/>
<line x1="26420" y1="0" x2="26420" y2="500" id="1/May/1972"/>
<line x1="26451" y1="0" x2="26451" y2="500" id="1/Jun/1972"/>
<line x1="26481" y1="0" x2="26481" y2="500" id="1/Jul/1972"/>
<line x1="26512" y1="0" x2="26512" y2="500" id="1/Aug/1972"/>
<line x1="26543" y1="0" x2="26543" y2="500" id="1/Sep/1972"/>
<line x1="26573" y1="0" x2="26573" y2="500" id="1/Oct/1972"/>
<line x1="26604" y1="0" x2="26604" y2="500" id="1/Nov/1972"/>
<line x1="26634" y1="0" x2="26634" y2="500" id="1/Dec/1972"/>
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<g id="missionLines" fill="none">
<path d="M 25193.5354166667,490 L 25196.4162037037,10 25197.2571296296,10 25199.6609027778,490" stroke="blue" id="Apollo 8 "/>
<path d="M 25341.7006944444,490 L 25344.8645138889,10 25347.4344675926,10 25349.7030439815,490" stroke="blue" id="Apollo 10"/>
<path d="M 25400.5638888889,490 L 25403.7234953704,10 25406.2053472222,10 25408.7017939815,490" stroke="green" id="Apollo 11"/>
<path d="M 25521.6819444444,490 L 25525.1579050926,10 25528.8675462963,10 25531.8738888889,490" stroke="green" id="Apollo 12"/>
<path d="M 25669.8006944444,490 L 25673.0145833333,10 25675.7553356481,490" stroke="magenta" id="Apollo 13"/>
<path d="M 25964.8771064815,490 L 25968.2914583333,10 25971.0687962963,10 25973.8784722222,490" stroke="green" id="Apollo 14"/>
<path d="M 26140.5652777778,490 L 26143.837337963 ,10 26149.8907986111,10 26152.8651967593,490" stroke="green" id="Apollo 15"/>
<path d="M 26405.7458333333,490 L 26408.8489236111,10 26414.0941319444,10 26416.822974537 ,490" stroke="green" id="Apollo 16"/>
<path d="M 26640.23125 ,490 L 26643.8291087963,10 26649.9827430556,10 26652.829837963 ,490" stroke="green" id="Apollo 17"/>
</g>
</svg>
{{cob}}
If you want to see it, copy the text into a file, save/rename as a .svg and open it in any modern browser. (There are other ways of opening SVGs, but that's probably the easiest way for most of those who don't have a preference.) ...to make it look more like the comic, I suggest you make the stroke-width for the missionLines group '''''huuuuuuge!!!!''''' ;) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.118|162.158.74.118]] 21:14, 18 January 2025 (UTC)

Some of the text (both in the explanation and the "into snow or water" in the title text) seems to suggest a "who wasn't shortly killed" that isn't stated in the chart. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.246.150|172.69.246.150]] 05:55, 18 January 2025 (UTC)

:"into snow or water" is in the title text which is about surviving... --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 13:05, 18 January 2025 (UTC)

I wonder why the chart does not consider parachutes? They might have been available around the same time as balloons, maybe earlier? [[User:Captain Nemo|Captain Nemo]] ([[User talk:Captain Nemo|talk]]) 12:29, 18 January 2025 (UTC)
:A parachutist can onyl start as high as his ballon, so that would make no difference until paragliding became a sport (way too late). However, most highs are still utterly wrong due to the omission of high altitude balooning from the mid-19th century onwards: It seems that no true airplane has ever beaten older baloon records. AT ALL. In fact, among all the objects capable of aerodynamic flight, only the X-2, the X-15 and the Space Shuttle set new 'maximum manned altidude' records going beyond aerostats of their time. However, all three ascended in balistic, rocketpowered flight, only using the lift of their wings during return. So humanitys pinnacle has always been defined by people thrown of cliffs, people attached to kites, peoples in baloons or people on rockets. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.250.194|172.70.250.194]] 16:06, 18 January 2025 (UTC)

huh. no joke comic. [[user talk:lett‪herebedarklight|youtu.be/miLcaqq2Zpk]] 15:43, 18 January 2025 (UTC)

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuan_Huangtou Yuan Huangtou] is a strong contender for the question in the title text. As a punishment he was sent to the sky on a big kite which was then let go. He came down 2.5 km away and survived. It seems entirely possible that he may have reached altitudes of several hundred meters. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.95.196|162.158.95.196]] 19:05, 18 January 2025 (UTC)
:From my recollection of a book on Chinese kite history, I'd put the max for a person-carrying kite at around a couple hundred meters. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.41.9|162.158.41.9]] 04:59, 19 January 2025 (UTC)
:As a technical argument, I'd mention that what makes a kite a kite is that it is tethered (albeit dynamically, whether to a winch or a firmly ground-based handler, rather than necessarily ''tied to the ground''; this makes the kites in kite-surfing/sailing/skating/etc a bit of an edge condition, but still valid as the canchor' is only ever itself airborne by temporarily depleting the kite's 'lift ability').
:Unless it was at the end of a 2.5km tether, at least part of the time the kite was released became a glider. And the means for keeping a glider up (and then ultimately not descending too fast!) are somewhat different from how you make a kite controllable. Even if you successfully raised a man-kite up and brought them back down several times (getting both the payer-out person ''and'' the payload-person used to how to control the kite-flight), the attitude and augmenting flight-surfaces that the kite used to get/keep/maintain height would probably be entirely wrong (perhaps even counterproductive!) when the release happens and the 'passenger' needs to now suddenly develop the need to "fly a glider" (or, maybe, a suboptimal parasail)
:I would not be surprised if many (reluctant) 'test pilots' failed to work out how not to stall (and other forms of flight-failure) in the time and distance they had before they reached the ground. The later ones ''might'' have a better hash of it ''if'' they were taken to witness their first compatriots' efforts (and those initial 'candidates' were able to shout down what they were feeling/doing, during their final fateful moments, to assist both the builders and future-fliers)... But, in the days before ''any'' actual aviation experience (let alone any form of flight-recorder, for both easier detailing of events and the repeatable playback for their better analysis), quite a bit of luck (or some coincidentally instinctive panic-induced response to falling, perhaps somehow harking back to the most recent common ancestor with a sugarglider/flying-squirrel/etc) will have played a part in whoever it might have been who rode a once-kite-now-glider down.
:Or, possibly, part of the luck was that the released tether was long enough to ''drag'' on the ground (given the options for rope/chord, around that time, and possibly the spool it was unspooled from, before the spool itself was released (by accident/design)), and with a strong enough wind and a consistently 'draggy' free-tether, it maintained a kite-like flight profile for the suggested distance (never being any higher than when ground-tethered, but only ''very gradually'' losing its initial height), such that the CFIT at the end was a 'survivable' (legs first? kite-structure acted as an initial crumple-zone?) landing.
:Of course, it's at least partly a legendary account. Could be somewhat contrived from retellings and embelishments, 'originally' just being (out of many such 'experiments' with 'volunteers') a controlled rise that was then re-winched-in, conflated with what happened when the tether snapped/etc, during a particularly windy day, and where the resulting wreckage was discovered. I think it's ''possible'' it happened (and one might even be able to plan to re-enact it, with modern knowledge of aeronautics and hands-on experience with all the more recent methods and means of flying), but it sounds like it became known ''only'' because it was a memetic (and maybe composite) success, only having to compete with the few "glorious failures", not the many occasions where some basic idea (that ''may'' have eventually led to better ideas) just didn't work ''or'' notably fail. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.160.195|172.70.160.195]] 14:52, 19 January 2025 (UTC)

11 paragraphs should be 5-7. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.151.155|172.71.151.155]] 05:04, 19 January 2025 (UTC)

Annotated the image [https://imgur.com/a/nQ3FZdi here]... Green line is "current absolute record" (assuming the truth of the plot), blue line is "highest height that will now always have someone higher" (again, going by the plot), red line is "record by a living individual" (''based'' upon the plot, and several historical truths I could discern, but probably getting to be as much speculative as the original joke-plot-with-a-passing-basis-in-fact). [[Special:Contributions/172.69.79.164|172.69.79.164]] 01:39, 20 January 2025 (UTC)

In 1966 there should be a peak above 1000km, the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemini_11 Gemini 11 flight], September 12-15, 1966, which reached an apogee of 1,374 kilometers. [[User:Rps|Rps]] ([[User talk:Rps|talk]]) 17:01, 20 January 2025 (UTC)

It seems like the graph is ignoring USSR's [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir Space Station Mir]. Per wiki, it was occupied for 12.5 years of its 15 year lifespan from 1986 to 2001. Honestly, feels like a weird thing to miss while including the ISS explicitly. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.207.140|172.70.207.140]] 06:45, 21 January 2025 (UTC)

since it got removed in the last edit, here's [https://www.heavens-above.com/OrbitHeightPlot.aspx?Width=1600&Height=1000&satid=25544&startMJD=51000&endMJD=61000 iss height over time]. change the start & end mjd to zoom in [[User:Regex user|Regex user]] ([[User talk:Regex user|talk]]) 11:15, 22 January 2025 (UTC)

3038: Uncanceled Units

2025-01-16T16:21:21Z

Regex user: /* Explanation */ adds full base unit expansion

{{comic
| number = 3038
| date = January 15, 2025
| title = Uncanceled Units
| image = uncanceled_units_2x.png
| imagesize = 323x355px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Speed limit c arcminutes^2 per steradian
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by THE HUBBLE PARAMETER, WHICH I HAD INCORRECTLY REFERRED TO AS THE PLANCK CONSTANT (PLS FORGIVE THIS BOT) - Please continue to explain the joke and possible interpretations. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Another of [[Randall]]'s [[:Category:Pet Peeves|pet peeves]], this comic expresses disapproval of units that could be mathematically simplified.

[[White Hat]] is presenting a refrigerator to [[Cueball]], saying it uses 3 kWh per day. This is a common and useful way to report power usage. But mathematically, the units can be simplified: 3 kWh per day = 3 kW * hour / day = 3 kW * (1 hour / 24 hour) = 0.125 kW = 125 W, giving the average power usage in {{w|watts}} (a unit for the rate of energy transfer, equal to 1 {{w|joule}} per second). Alternatively, one could convert it to 3 kWh * 3600 kJ / kWh = 10800 kJ / day, as many refrigerators use very different amounts of power throughout a day.

The reason people would use "kWh / day" without simplifying the unit is that kWh is a commonly used unit for energy, and it's often viewed as a base unit even though it's composite (1 kWh is the amount of energy consumed by one kilowatt of power usage over one hour, and is equal to 1 kJ/s * 1 h = 3600 kJ). It's the unit in which energy consumption is typically reported and in which bills are calculated, so it's more familiar to the average consumer than kJ and megajoule (MJ), and giving the power usage in kWh / day makes it easier for the consumer to understand how much money it will cost them to run per day. But mathematically, "kWh / day" is inelegant, because it uses power (which is already a measure of energy per time) multiplied by a time unit then divided by another time unit. This gets increasingly ridiculous if you reduce all the way down to the seven base quantities, resulting in: mass times length squared over time squared, per time, times time, per time.

Cueball (probably representing Randall) sardonically wonders whether the refrigerator would fit in his kitchen, since the ceiling is only 50 gallons per square foot high. This is clearly an abnormal and unhelpful way of reporting height. This unit turns a normal measurement of height (feet and inches in the US; meters and centimeters most other places) into a weird collection of uncancelled units. Gallons can be transformed to cubic feet (1 US gal ≈ 0.1337 ft3), which can be divided by the square feet, yielding a ceiling height of around 6 feet 8 inches, or 203.7 cm. (Using imperial gallons [1 UK gal ≈ 0.1605 ft3], the height is roughly 8 feet, or approximately 244.7 cm.) This is intended to lampoon the use of both non-metric and uncancelled units by showing how odd things become if they're generally used.

''[[what if? (blog)|what if?]]'': [https://what-if.xkcd.com/11/ Droppings] also covers strange instances of unit cancellation, including a measure of volume per distance converted to area; similar to Cueball's measure of volume per area representing a distance (the height of his ceiling).

A common source of unit drama occurs between lay people who are looking for every day practicality and science/engineering types who are inclined towards formalized mathematical operations. For example U.S. customary units which support many divisibility rules (1 foot = 12 inches; 1 inch = 72 points = 1440 twips; 3 feet = 1 yard; 2 yards = 1 fathom; 22 yards = 1 chain; 10 chains = 1 furlong; 1 mile = 5280 feet; 1 league = 3 miles) versus metric units which prioritize base 10 scales. In this case, telling the average customer the energy use in joules per day or average consumption in watts would require them to perform more complicated conversions to get to the figure they actually care about — the actual cost per day. White Hat could just give this cost figure directly, but does not know what every customer pays for electricity (an explicit yearly cost estimate would be included on the government required energy efficiency label).

In the title text, a speed limit is given as c arcminutes2 per steradian, where c is presumably the speed of light in vacuum — 2.998×108 m/s (meters per second) or 186282 mi/s (miles per second). A steradian (sr) is the SI unit for solid angle, subtended by a section of a sphere (like a radian is a unit of angle subtended by a section of a circle). A square arcminute is also a unit of solid angle, equivalent to a section of a sphere of 1/60 of a degree by 1/60 of a degree. There are ((1/60)*(π/180))2 = 8.462×10-8 sr in a square arcminute. Then multiplying by c gives a speed of 56.75 mph (probably 55 mph, based upon the {{w|National Maximum Speed Law|'traditional' US speed limit}}, before rounding errors in the reverse direction), or 91.33 km/h, showing that you can combine an outrageously high speed with two unnecessary units that cancel each other to form a normal road speed.

It is worth noting that, although some of these examples are ridiculous, there are cases where uncancelled units can be helpful to understanding the concept. For example, while the {{w|Hubble's law|Hubble Parameter}} can be expressed as 2.17132212×10-18 hertz, expressing it as 67 km/s/Mpc directly relates the quantity to how it is measured and its natural interpretation. Another example would be fuel efficiency in cars, where mi/gal and km/l technically simplify to 1/area, but expressing it in volume and distance allows easy estimations of range and travel cost, while mm-2 or in-2 would require significant unit conversions.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[White Hat and Cueball are standing to either side of a refrigerator. The fridge has two top compartments and one bottom compartment. The top left compartment has a tall handle on its right, the top right compartment has a tall handle on its left, and the bottom compartment has a long handle on its top. The top left compartment has a paper attached to it with unreadable text, possibly an advertisement.]
:White Hat: This fridge uses only 3 kWh per day!
:Cueball: But will it fit in my kitchen? The ceiling there is only 50 gallons per square foot.

:[Caption below the panel:]
:Pet peeve: Uncanceled units

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Pet Peeves]]

3035: Trimix

2025-01-09T10:39:15Z

Regex user: /* Explanation */ explains why you can't just replace the nitrogen with more oxygen

{{comic
| number = 3035
| date = January 8, 2025
| title = Trimix
| image = trimix_2x.png
| imagesize = 436x259px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = You don't want the nitrogen percentage to be too high or you run the risk of eutrophication.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a FLOATING TRIMIX SCUBA DIVER - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
{{w|Trimix (breathing gas)|Trimix}} is a gas used in {{w|SCUBA}} tanks that consists of {{w|helium}}, {{w|oxygen}}, and {{w|nitrogen}}. Trimix comes in some standard ratios between the component gases, depending on the required diving depth, for example 21/35/44 (percentage oxygen/helium/nitrogen), 18/45/37 and 15/55/30 for increasing depth. Helium replaces a portion of the nitrogen to minimize nitrogen's narcotic effects at greater depths and to ease the effort required for breathing. This comic jokes that if the helium amount is too high, a diver will float away before reaching the water to start a dive, as a helium balloon will do if not securely tethered.

The reason a helium balloon creates lift is that it can inflate. The balloon has a thin and expandable layer, weighing almost nothing, that allows the intrinsically less dense gas to take up space at not much more than atmospheric pressure. The total weight of the filled balloon is less than the total weight of the air it displaces, thus creating {{w|buoyancy}}. A SCUBA tank is made of metal, is heavy and cannot inflate,{{Citation needed}} which means it will never become lighter on air as you pump more of ''any'' kind of gas into it. (In fact, it will just get heavier, as an inflating helium balloon does, but without the over-compensating increase in volume.) Thus it will never be able to create any kind of lift, no matter the amount of helium or any other gas that is compressed inside of it, and neither could a typical SCUBA tank even attain lift by thoroughly emptying it to try to create a {{w|vacuum balloon}}.

The real reason SCUBA divers need to be careful with the amount of helium is to not get too little (or [[wikipedia:Oxygen toxicity|too much]]) oxygen or too much nitrogen.

The title text asserts that a trimix diver whose gas mix contains an excess of nitrogen runs "the risk of eutrophication". The term {{w|Eutrophication|eutrophication}} describes the process by which nutrients ("fertilizers") accumulate in an environment, typically a body of water, leading to consequences that are often unfortunate for inhabitants or users of that environment. The human body is an ecosystem, but one that is not typically subject to eutrophication due to its manner of acquiring and jettisoning nutrients. Moreover, the nitrogen in trimix is diatomic elemental nitrogen, not the {{w|Nitrogen_fixation|"fixed"}} nitrogen that serves as a component of eutrophication. The diver would not breathe "fixed" nitrogen unless nitrogen-fixing bacteria were somehow incorporated into the SCUBA gear, a complex feature of dubious utility.

[[Randall]] addressed the question "how much helium is needed to lift a human body" in a [https://what-if.xkcd.com/62/ What if?] article. Helium has also featured in comics [https://xkcd.com/2766/ 2766] and [https://xkcd.com/2972/ 2972].

==Transcript==
:[In a single frame five images of Cueball is shown as a kind of carton, with each image a later time in the process. The first image to the left shows Cueball standing by the shore of a body of water. He is wearing SCUBA gear, goggles, breathing tubes, SCUBA tanks with a small H logo on it on his back, and swimming flippers, which almost touch the water.]

:[In the next four images he has the same equipment on, but with changes. It should be seen as he is still at the edge of the water, but that is not drawn in the next four depictions of Cueball.]

:[In the second image to the right of the first, Cueball's SCUBA tank is beginning to float upwards, so the end that is not teetered to Cueball move out and up, as shown with three small lines beneath the tank.]

:[In the third image the SCUBA tank is now floating above Cueball's head and the strings pull his arms a bit upwards. Cueball has turned his head looking up at the tank floating above and behind his head. Again three small lines beneath the tank indicates it is moving upwards.]

:[In the fourth image Cueball is now being lifted up, so his feet are now off the ground and he is tilting forward. The tank is now pointing it's bottom almost straight up and Cueball is looking down with his arms out the each side as the tank pulls him up. Two lines on either side of the tank indicate that it now wobbles above him as it lifts him up.]

:[In the fifth and last image the SCUBA tank is now pulling a dangling Cueball high above the ground, above his head's height in the first image. The tank is now turned so it points it's bottom to the left with lines on either side indicating wobbling motion. Cueball is floating as lying prone a bit bended on the middle as the tanks straps pulls him up. At this point he yells:]
:Cueball: ''Help!''

:[Caption below the panel:]
:Trimix SCUBA divers need to be careful not to let the helium percentage get too high.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]

2958: Hatchery

2024-07-14T00:12:50Z

Regex user: /* Explanation */ if you're going to mention fish, may as well mention homespring

{{comic
| number = 2958
| date = July 12, 2024
| title = Hatchery
| image = hatchery_2x.png
| imagesize = 239x336px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Anadromous fish are more vulnerable in rivers, since the lack of salt means you can quickly crack passwords using rainbow trout tables.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT EXECUTING REMOTE COD - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
{{w|Remote code execution}} is a type of {{w|software exploit}} that takes advantage of a bug to allow a remote user of a computer application to make it run code that it was not intended to execute. For example, a webserver with such a bug might allow a user of a web page to make it run a program that deletes system files or displays private information.

The joke arising from this comic is that if you remove the "e" from "code", you get "remote cod execution". This refers to killing ("executing") codfish remotely, using an exploit in a network application that allows one to view the {{w|hatchery}}.

The title text contains a pun on {{w|rainbow tables}}, referring to {{w|rainbow trout}}, one type of which ({{w|steelhead}}) is {{w|anadromous fish|anadromous}} (migrating up rivers to spawn -- {{w|salmon}} are another well known example). Rainbow tables are used when trying to crack hashed passwords; it's a file with a carefully pre-computed selection of passwords and their corresponding hash values, which can be used to more efficiently recover password that are retrieved hashed. To prevent rainbow tables from being usable in this way, most modern password systems use "{{w|salt (cryptography)|salt}}", an extra random string that gets appended to the password before hashing so the same password will potentially have many different hashes, and it becomes infeasible to recover it even with the acceleration offered by rainbow tables. An additional pun is that rivers contain fresh water, so there's no salt (the chemical kind) and the fish are therefore more vulnerable.

The comic dialogue itself starts the whole chain of puns off by using the phrase "shooting fish in a barrel", which is figuratively used to mean that the task is extremely easy, but here becomes clear that he is literally {{w|Capital punishment|executing}} fish, without needing to be there in person. Also, Black Hat has [[374: Journal|previously]] talked about shooting "lonely, angsty fish in a barrel."

{{w|Fish (Unix shell)|fish}} is also the name of a {{w|UNIX shell}}. Shells are popular targets for computer hackers as they are capable of being used to run arbitrary commands if sufficient access is gained through them.

[https://esolangs.org/wiki/Homespring Homespring], or HOtMEfSPRIbNG, is an {{w|esoteric programming language}} made in 2003 where programs are all a metaphor of salmon swimming between their hatchery and the ocean before the world ends in a giant snowmelt. The intentionally obtuse official documentation is available [https://bunny.xeny.net/linked/Homespring-Proposed-Language-Standard.pdf here], and you can try it using [https://tio.run/#homespring online interpreters] or by [https://jeffreymbinder.net/misc/hs/hs.tar.bz2 downloading the tarball]

==Transcript==
:[Black Hat is sitting at a computer desk, with Cueball standing behind him.]
:Black Hat: Shooting fish in a barrel.
:Computer: Blam!

:[Caption below the panel:]
:A new fish hatchery exploit allows remote cod execution.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Black Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Computer security]]
[[Category:Animals]]
[[Category:Programming]]
[[Category:Puns]]

887: Future Timeline

2024-07-04T00:13:30Z

Regex user: adds outcome of moon base

{{comic
| number = 887
| date = April 18, 2011
| title = Future Timeline
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]
| image = future timeline.png
| titletext = Not shown: the approximately 30,000 identical, vaguely hysterical articles titled "WHITE PEOPLE IN [THE US/BRITAIN] TO BECOME MINORITY BY [YEAR]!", which came up for basically any year I put in.
}}

{{TOC}}==Explanation==
This comic uses the same strategy as comic [[715: Numbers]], in which [[Randall]] uses Google to search for phrases and then charts the results. This one is charted as a timeline, whereas 715 was charted as line graphs.
It is a list of things predicted or announced by anyone at any time (the ones you see on Google search using "by the year..." or similar statements).

"2101 - War Was Beginning" is a reference to the opening narration of video game ''Zero Wing''; the same narration is famous for the internet meme "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}". As there are not any other out and out references in the comic, and the rest are actually results that you can find using Randall's methods, "War Was Beginning" was probably the only thing he got when he googled 2101 as well.

Certain events in this comic, e.g., "Social Security stops running surplus", are repeated multiple times. Also, certain bizarre events, like "Apocalypse occurs", or "Flying cars reach market", happen before rather plausible things, like "'Big one' hits California". Certain events, like "Japan is a robot-only country" or "Gillette introduces 14-blade razor" may be related to the recurring theme [[605: Extrapolating]].

The title text is a reference to a reoccurring scaremonger theory that European people will become a minority or extinct as other ethnicities outbreed them. For maximum scaremongering they will claim this could happen in the near future, complete with extrapolated graphs. In the years since this comic was published these conspiracy theories have come to be known as "the great replacement" or "white genocide". Scaremongers are banking on the idea their target audience will [https://www.cjr.org/special_report/media-literacy-trump-fake-news.php rarely bother to fact check,] as analysis of their extrapolations usually reveals incorrect methodology [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUbxVfSqtt8 if not outright lies.]

This comic has similar features to [[1413: Suddenly Popular]], [[1093: Forget]], and [[891: Movie Ages]].

==The predictions==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Year
! Prediction
! Further Details
! Outcome
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2012
| World population
| Ever since the advent of modern medicine and the more efficient agricultural processes developed since the Industrial Revolution, the human population had been growing at an unprecedented rate. This has caused some people to {{w|Human overpopulation|worry about overpopulation}}, which would cause a scarcity of resources and overcrowding, and propose various solutions, most of which involve some form of eugenics. 7 billion is a landmark number because it is a multiple of 1 billion.
| Close; Earth reached 7 billion in late 2011.
|-
| Flying cars
| For decades, flying cars have been a staple of futuristic sci-fi and technological predictions. So far very few of these predictions, which to tend to hover around 5–10 years from whatever the current date is, have come true.
| Too early; a flying car was first demonstrated in July 2021.{{Actual citation needed}} You could argue that helicopters count as flying cars, but these are not affordable{{citation needed}} and hence not widely used by the general public.
|-
| Canada cuts greenhouse emissions
| Currently, the Earth is experiencing an unprecedented period of warming we call global warming, caused in part by greenhouse emissions, which are gases that help trap heat in the atmosphere. Countries have repeatedly gotten together and promised to stop emitting greenhouse gases, but so far they have failed to meet their targets.
| False. Canada withdrew from the Kyoto treaty in late 2011, and its emissions in 2012 were 18% ''above'' 1990 levels (though its population had grown 26% and its GDP had grown 67% in that period).
|-
| Apocalypse occurs
| The end of a cycle of the Mayan calendar on December 22, 2012 has been used in popular culture as a basis for predicting the end of the world. Amongst other things, this included the film '2012'. Some people took this rather more seriously, and actually believed that the world would end on this date.
| False.{{Citation needed}}
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2013
| National debt paid off
| For years, the subject of national debt (in the USA) has been a political point of contention. While both parties theoretically support reducing the debt or paying it off entirely, Democrats are more willing to spend to pull the country out of recessions in the economy and Republicans to cut taxes. The last time that spending did not exceed revenue begin under Clinton, a Democrat, and ended after George W. Bush, a Republican, said that this amounted to taxpayers being "overcharged" and taxes were lowered, followed by the Great Recession. Clinton at one point proposed [https://money.cnn.com/1999/06/28/economy/clinton/ paying off the debt by 2015].
| False.
|-
| Microchipping Americans
| Microchips are small computer chips, typically embedded in pets in case they get lost, that contain information about the pet. Some, more paranoid, people worry about the government microchipping everyone in an effort to monitor their activities.
| False, although RFID implants do exist.
|-
| Homelessness ended in MA
| In 2008, the Commission To End Homelessness in Massachusetts, under Governor Deval Patrick, proposed a plan to all but eliminate homelessness over the next five years (hence the 2013 end-date on the comic).
| False.
|-
| Health care reform law repealed
| A health care reform law, popularly known as Obamacare, was signed into law in 2010. Ever since, many Republicans have tried (in vain) to repeal it, disliking the idea that government should provide and require healthcare. However, President [[Joe Biden]] has stated to restore Obamacare.
| Too early; almost repealed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2014
| US leaves Afghanistan
| After the {{w|September 11 attacks|terrorist attack}} on the {{w|World Trade Center (1973–2001)|World Trade Center}} (WTC) in New York on September 11, 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan, which at the time allegedly hosted the headquarters of al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization behind the attacks. The war has gone on since then, with the public growing increasingly tired of it. Public support then favoured a withdrawal, but for military and logistical reasons, the government could not simply move all the US troops in Afghanistan to their home. Therefore, the government promised to eventually withdraw all troops, initially planned to do so by the end of 2014.
| Too early; the remaining US troops [https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/afghanistan-afghan-troops-struggle-to-replace-americans-at-key-bagram-air-base-2480356 left Afghanistan in June 2021.]
|-
| GNU/Linux dominant OS
| An operating system, or OS, is the software that forms the structure in which applications on you computer function. Some typical OSs include Mac OS X, Windows 10, and Linux. The first two of those three are commercial products, sold as a copy by a company. The last is an open-source OS, one that anyone can download and modify free. Typically, open-source software is used by a small number of socially conscious people.
| False, although Linux-based Android dominated phones since 2011.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2015
| New Horizon reaches Pluto
| The New Horizon spacecraft is a U.S. space mission designed to go to Pluto and take photographs, collect samples, etc.
| True. [https://pluto.jhuapl.edu It reached Pluto on July 14, 2015].
|-
| Healthcare law causes hyperinflation
| The National Inflation Association warned that the [https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/healthcare-bill-to-cause-us-hyperinflation-by-2015-88711032.html healthcare bill would cause U.S. hyperinflation by 2015.]
| False.
|-
| Millennium development goals achieved
| {{w|Millennium Development Goals}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2016
| Baby boomers begin turning 65
| {{w|Baby boomers}} are individuals conceived in the years following World War Two, roughly defined as those born from 1946-1959. This isn't so much a prediction as basic math; if you were born in 1946, you turned 65 in 2011.
| True.
|-
| Android takes 38%/45% of market share
| {{w|Android (operating system)|Android}} is a popular operating system for smartphones and tablets, created by Google. Market share is the percentage of all devices that use the product, in this case the Android operating system. These entries together are humorous because they cannot both happen at the same time.
| Too late; passed these marks in 2010. {{w|Android OS}}'s [https://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp market share was already 84.4% as of the third quarter of 2014,] showing that both estimates were overly conservative.
|-
| Windows phone overtakes iOS
| {{w|iOS}} is the operating system used by Apple iPhones. At the time of the comic, Apple's mobile OS is much more popular than Microsoft's. The article Randall found predicts that the tables will turn. However, Windows Phone was discontinued in 2017, with support for the last version (Windows Phone 10) ending on December 10, 2019.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2017
| China completes lunar mission
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
| False. The first sample-return mission was completed in November 2020.
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| The first of many predictions about the United States {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} trust fund program, all predicting its decline due to a variety of factors.
| Too early. Occurred in 2021.
|-
| US budget balanced
| The {{w|United States federal budget}} outlines how much the US government spends on what in a given fiscal year. The budget is not required to be balanced, and so often more money is spent than is earned in revenue, causing the national debt to rise.
| False. Still pretty negative.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The increasing popularity of internet media and mobile devices has caused a steady decline in the popularity of print media.
| False. Though newspapers are in decline, they are certainly not obsolete as of 2017, or 2022, for that matter.
|-
| Cosmetic surgery doubles
| {{w|Cosmetic Surgery}}
| False. According to the ASPS (American Society of Plastic Surgeons), 1.6 million cosmetic surgeries were performed in 2011, while 1.8 million were performed in 2017, an increase of only 0.2 million.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2018
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still too early.
|-
| Jesus returns to Earth
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the {{w|second coming}} or the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible and other religious texts says that "no man can know the date" and that it would be within the lifetime of some who witnessed Jesus's first appearance. Several predicted dates have come and gone.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2019
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still too early.
|-
| Every baby has genes mapped at birth
| {{w|Gene Mapping}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2020
| Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
| Scientists estimate that more than half of the {{w|fossil fuels}} in existence have already been found and that fossil fuel production will begin to decline due to the scarcity, causing prices to increase. At the same time, improvements in {{w|Solar Power|solar technology}} are causing the prices for solar energy to steadily decrease.
| True, though only in {{w|Cost of electricity by source#Recent_global_studies|certain cases}}.
|-
| Keyboards and mice become obsolete
| {{w|Computer input device|Computer input devices}} are beginning to adopt other inputs, such as trackpads, voice commands, touch screens, and eye tracking. While touch screens in particular are gaining widespread use with the rise of smartphones and tablets, as of 2022 desktop computers that use mice are still fairly common. And while voice-to-text has greatly improved, it still doesn't have the accuracy to replace typing. None of the other text inputs are as fast as a keyboard, and none are suitable for writing program code.
| False. While touchscreen devices ''are'' increasingly common, desktop computers are still very much in use. Mice continue to be used alongside touchscreens and trackpads, and keyboards remain the dominant method of writing on computers.
|-
| New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
| A {{w|Tappan_Zee_Bridge#Replacement_bridge|replacement bridge}} was announced in 2008.
| Too late; completed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2021
| US debt reaches 97% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
| Too late; reached in 2011.
|-
| US unemployment falls to 2.8%
| {{w|Unemployment in the United States}}
| False: because of the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment has actually ''increased''.
|-
| Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
| A {{w|caliphate}} is a form of {{w|Islam|Islamic}} political-religious leadership, centred around a Caliph, or successor to the prophet {{w|Muhammad}}. This may be foreshadowing of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which has as its goal the creation of a restored caliphate.
| False.
|-
| Lake Mead evaporates
| Formed by the {{w|Hoover Dam}} on the {{w|Colorado River}}, {{w|Lake Mead}} is the largest reservoir in the United States (measured by maximum capacity). It hasn't reached its capacity since 1983, due to drought and increased demand for water. This is linked to {{w|global warming}}.
| False, although water levels continue to fall.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2022
| Kilimanjaro snow-free
| At 5,895 metres, {{w|Kilimanjaro}} is the highest mountain in {{w|Africa}}, and the highest free-standing mountain in the world. Around 85% of its ice cover disappeared between 1912 and 2011, and it continues to recede.
| False.
|-
| HTML 5 finished
| The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) began work on {{w|HTML 5}} in 2004.
| Too late; 5.0 specification released in 2014, but incremental updates continue.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| This is the second time this prediction has appeared.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2023
| Jesus returns to Earth (again)
| Again.
| False.
|-
| US debt passes 100% of GDP
| This references the common fear that {{w|US Debt}} will exceed GDP, possibly causing {{w|Economic bubble|economic turmoil}}.
| Too late; reached in 2012.
|-
| All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
| Likely due to a combination of wildfire and {{w|deforestation}}.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2024
| Atlantis begins to reappear
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. It's not clear why ''rising'' sea level would make it reappear.
|
|-
| Orangutans extinct in wild
| {{w|Orangutan|Orangutans}} are a species of great ape, currently classed as an {{w|endangered species}}, and found only in the {{w|Rainforest|rainforests}} of {{w|Borneo}} and {{w|Sumatra}}.
|
|-
| China lands men and women on the moon
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
| False; the Chinese government planned a manned mission to the moon for the 2030s.
|-
| NASA sets up permanent moon base
| There has been a lot of hype recently about finally returning to the moon, vis-a-vis Orion.
| Too early; the {{w|Artemis program}} plans to put the {{w|Lunar Gateway}} in orbit around the moon, which will be flown up in [https://www.nasa.gov/gateway-frequently-asked-questions/#:~:text=Station%20(ISS).-,Assembling%20Gateway%20in%20lunar%20orbit%20will%20involve%20four%20rocket%20launches%20and%20will%20take%20approximately%20six%20years,-%2C%20in%20contrast%20to four launches over the course of six years, beginning "no earlier than 2025"]
|-
| Female professionals pass males in pay
| There are two possible explanations for this entry: Either it's fear-mongering from misogynists or, more probably, an erroneous extrapolation from the current rate at which female incomes are catching up to male incomes.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2025
| World population reaches 8 billion
| Given current rates, it seems unlikely it will take this long to hit 8 billion, but advances in birth control options and especially their availability in developing nations may slow the current rate considerably.
| Too late..? This number was reached in late 2022. Hopefully there won't be a reason for the number to suddenly plummet in 2025.
|-
| Two billion people face water shortages
| https://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/28-01-2008/103693-water_crisis-0/
|
|-
| 62 MPG cars introduced
| 62 miles per gallon, ~3.8 L/100km. 62 MPG is a very good mileage rate at today's standard, even though [https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=5231050&page=1 some cars can be driven carefully so as to attain over 100 MPG].
|
|-
| US power fades
| https://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-us-power-will-fade-by-2025/
| Hard to know what the precise metric for this would be.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2026
| Atlantis emerges completely
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. It seems that it has taken 2 years for it to emerge completely.
|
|-
| Rock Bands die out
| https://bestbands.wordpress.com/2009/01/25/rock-bands-to-die-out-by-2026/
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| [https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/business/27view.html It’s 2026, and the Debt Is Due.]
|
|-
| Car accidents cease
| Presumably, cars will be fully automated and able to pilot themselves at this point and will have fail-safes that prevent collisions currently attributed to user error. Car accidents will always be possible, however, due to mechanical and electrical failures.
|
|-
| West coast falls into ocean
| Most likely due to {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|a significant seismic event}}.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2027
| Japan introduces new fastest Maglev train
| Japan's railway systems are famous for their "bullet trains", or {{w|Shinkansen}}. The Chūō Shinkansen is planned to be opened in this year.
|
|-
| Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony is established
| https://totse.mattfast1.com/en/technology/space_astronomy_nasa/moonmars.html
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2028
| Tobacco outlawed
| Tobacco products (cigarettes and chewing tobacco) have become more and more taboo in modern culture, with most public places and private businesses forbidding their use indoors and near places children congregate.
|
|-
| 40% of coral reefs gone
| Many factors have been attributed to the decline of {{w|Coral_reef#Threats|coral reefs}}, including mining, over fishing, and rising ocean tempteratures.
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2029
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| The next stage of the collapse of {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}. After years of deficits deplete the trust fund, the program will only be able to pay out as much in benefits as it takes in each year.
|
|-
| Computers pass the Turing test
| It is no coincidence that 2029 is the timeline for Terminator Movies.
| Some computer programs already clear the Turing Test about 30% of the time.
|-
| Aging reversed
| [https://www.zdnet.com/article/manhattan-beach-project-to-reverse-aging-by-2029/ Manhattan Beach Project to reverse aging by 2029]
|
|-
| Wikipedia reaches 30 million articles
|
| As of July 2024, Wikipedia has over [https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/List_of_Wikipedias#Grand_Total 63.2 million total articles], if all languages are included. The source being cited may have meant the English language Wikipedia, which has only {{w|Special:Statistics|6.8 million articles}}.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2030
| Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
| WWF press release - [https://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/climate-change-speeds-up-amazon-s-destruction-says-wwf Climate Change Speeds Up Amazon’s Destruction] referring to a report on the [https://assets.panda.org/downloads/amazonas_eng_04_12b_web.pdf Amazon's vicious cycles].
|
|-
| Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
| From the [https://www.cancer.org/myacs/newengland/global-cancer-burden-to-double-by-2030 Global Cancer Burden to Nearly Double by 2030] article about the article from page 37 of [https://www.cancer.org/research/cancerfactsfigures/globalcancerfactsfigures/global-facts-figures-2nd-ed Global Cancer Facts & Figures 2nd edition].
|
|-
| Arctic ice-free in summer
| https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-video-ap.html
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2031
| Computers controlled by thought
| https://www.gizmag.com/future-mobile-technology/17554/
| As of 2017, this is {{w|Brain–computer interface|already possible}}, but still not used in any mass available devices as of 2022.
|-
| Realtors replaced by technology
| https://agbeat.com/editorials/will-realtors-be-replaced-by-technology-by-the-year-2031/
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| https://crfb.org/blogs/cbo-95-percent-confident-social-security-trust-fund-runs-out-25-years
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2032
| "Big One" hits San Francisco
| {{w|San Franscisco}} is located on the {{w|San Andreas Fault}}, which is predicted to produce a magnitude 7+ earthquake in the 'near future'. This event is referred to as {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|"The Big One"}}.
|
|-
| US elects first married lesbian President
| https://4chandata.org/g/In-what-major-ways-do-you-think-the-world-of-2032-will-be-different-from-that-of-today-a20155
|
|-
| Entire world converted to Christianity
| https://www.goddiscussion.com/38920/christian-domininionsts-to-take-over-the-world-by-2032/
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2033
| Kilimanjaro ice disappears
| https://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/02/idUSL2210825
|
|-
| India becomes superpower
| https://www.facebook.com/pages/India-A-SuperPower-by-2033/151177191568098
|
|-
| Europe reaches Mars
| [https://www.spacedaily.com/news/esa-general-03zb.html Specifically, a manned European mission]. ESA's {{w|Mars Express}} probe landed in 2003.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2034
| US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
| [https://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/27/us-diabetes-usa-costs-idUSTRE5AQ0C220091127 U.S. diabetes cases to double, costs triple by 2034]
|
|-
| US builds autonomous robot army
| The concept of robots built for military service is another common element of science fiction stories. [https://www.aos-inc.com/index.php/medialias/press-releases?id=112 Unmanned Systems] article, about the [https://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA522247 2009-2034 Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap] publication ([https://www.amazon.com/2009-Unmanned-Integrated-Aircraft-Technologies-ebook/dp/B0047743A0 details at Amazon]).
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2035
| 80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
| From fact sheet on Obama's [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/fact-sheet-state-union-president-obamas-plan-win-future State of the Union.]
|
|-
| Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
| From an IPCC report on [https://web.archive.org/web/20100116132657/https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html The Himalayan glaciers] that has been analysed in quite some depth. See for example detailed article on an [https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/02/anatomy-of-ipccs-himalayan-glacier-year-2035-mess/ anatomy of IPCC’s mistake].
|
|-
| Arctic sea lane opens
| [https://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/730ef8fe-27e1-11e0-8abc-00144feab49a.html#axzz3OBgEHYNY Arctic sea lane could open by 2035]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2036
| 80% of US has access to high-speed rail
| [https://www.wnyc.org/story/284946-obama-80-percent-of-americans-should-have-access-to-high-speed-rail-by-2036/ Obama: 80 Percent of Americans Should Have Access to High Speed Rail By 2036]
|
|-
| Asteroid Apophis misses/hits Earth
| 99942 Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2037
| Arctic ice-free in September
| {{w|Arctic sea ice decline}}
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2038
| 32-bit timestamps roll over, causing Y2K-level chaos
| On 03:14:07 UTC on 19 January 2038, the value of time_t rolls over, that is it will return to zero. time_t is a computing standard measurement of time; it is a count of the number of seconds since 00:00:00 UTC on 1 January 1970. time_t is used by most computer systems to store date and time information. It is recommended that new software should convert to a 64 bit time_t; indeed, most operating systems designed to run on 64-bit hardware already use signed 64-bit time_t integers. This would give an epoch of 15:30:08 UTC on 4 December 292,277,026,596 (292 billion years away). Of course, legacy systems may not be upgradable so action taken now should prevent this becoming a problem closer to 2038...
|
|-
| "Big One" hits California
| [https://www.presstelegram.com/technology/20080414/the-big-one-likely-to-hit-by-2038 `The big one' likely to hit by 2038]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2039
| US population hits 400 Million
| [https://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2008/us400million.aspx U.S. Population Projected to Hit 400 Million in 2039]
|
|-
| Severe heat waves become commonplace
| [https://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/july/extreme-heat-study-070810.html Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds]
|
|-
| Scientology becomes majority religion in US
| [https://home.snafu.de/tilman/2039.html Essay: Scientology in the year 2039]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2040
| Arctic summers ice-free
| [https://www.livescience.com/9419-arctic-summer-ice-free-2040.html Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2040]
|
|-
| Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
| [https://www.computerworld.com/article/2528330/app-development/nanotech-could-make-humans-immortal-by-2040--futurist-says.html Nanotech could make humans immortal by 2040, futurist says]
|
|-
| 2041
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2043
| World population passes 9 Billion
| {{w|Population growth}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2044
| Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
| Premise of the movie [https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1363468/ Zenith] - further details are in the [https://www.filmjournal.com/filmjournal/content_display/esearch/e3i25130cd57f1590bda4527c098ac85b01 film review for Zenith.]
|
|-
| Childhood obesity reaches 100%
| [https://www.ivanhoe.com/channels/p_channelstory.cfm?storyid=11414 100-Percent Childhood Obesity Predicted by 2044]
|
|-
| 2045
| Humans and machines merge
| {{w|Ray Kurzweil}} predicts of a 'singularity' which will lead to a race of super intelligent beings.
|
|-
| 2046
| World's natural resources depleted
| [https://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2047
| World ruled by banks and corporations
| [https://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Schlock-2047-RM-Krakoff-ebook/dp/B0039IT37Q Future Schlock - the story of a world turned upside down in 2047]
|
|-
| Tobacco industry fails
| [https://www.news.wisc.edu/16857 Experts: Big Tobacco dead by 2047, possibly sooner]
|
|-
| US begins using autonomous attack drones
| [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/aug/22/us-air-force-drones-pilots-afghanistan US Air Force prepares drones to end era of fighter pilots]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2048
| Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
| WWF report on [https://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ unsustainable fishing.]
|
|-
| Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
| [https://future.wikia.com/wiki/RyansWorld:_Bathing_Suits_of_the_Future RyansWorld: Bathing Suits of the Future]
|
|-
| Entire US population overweight
| [https://web.archive.org/web/20090321075605/https://thestatsblog.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/scientists-say-thin-people-face-extinction-in-united-states-everyone-will-be-overweight-by-2048-%E2%80%93-and-less-smart Scientists Say Thin People Face Extinction in United States: Everyone Will Be Overweight by 2048 – And Less Smart (archive)]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2049
| $1,000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
| [https://www.americanbar.org/content/newsletter/publications/technology_e_report_home/2007_may_technotes.html TechNotes: Trends in Technology]
|
|-
| Singularity occurs
| [https://www.prismdecision.com/the-singularity-is-near The Singularity Is Near]
|
|-
| Fishing industry collapses
| This tends to happen when your food-stock is extinct{{citation needed}} - see WWF report on [https://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ unsustainable fishing.]
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2050
| 80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
| [https://infochangeindia.org/population/books-a-reports/80-of-world-population-will-soon-be-in-urban-areas.html 80% of world population will soon be in urban areas]
|
|-
| China controls space
| [https://books.google.com/books?id=op851Uf99LQC&dq=China+controls+space+2050&source=gbs_navlinks_s Space Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050]
|
|-
| Sex with robots possible
| [https://www.livescience.com/1951-forecast-sex-marriage-robots-2050.html Forecast: Sex and Marriage with Robots by 2050]
|
|-
| Cars banned from European cities
| [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/8411336/EU-to-ban-cars-from-cities-by-2050.html EU to ban cars from cities by 2050]
|
|-
| One million species extinct from climate change
| [https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/01/0107_040107_extinction.html By 2050 Warming to Doom Million Species, Study Says]
|
|-
| 2051
| Atmosphere escapes into space
| [https://www.thehulltruth.com/boating-outdoor-photos/255705-have-you-ever-seen-fallstreak-hole.html Conspiracy theory] relating to {{w|Fallstreak hole}} or hole punch clouds.
|
|-
| 2052
| Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2053
| US budget balanced
| [https://crfb.org/blogs/omb-releases-long-term-projections-fy2015-budget-proposal OMB releases long-term projections for the FY2015 budget proposal]
|
|-
| Majority of Americans in prison
| [https://articles.philly.com/1992-06-14/news/26032105_1_prison-officials-prison-time-prison-commissioners 'Beyond Bricks And Bars' As Jails Overflow, The Lock-'em-up Credo Is Drawing Unlikely Criticism - From Prison Officials Themselves]
|
|-
| Cars driven by dogs
|
| This has [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWAK0J8Uhzk already occurred] in 2012! However, it is not as widespread as the prediction may be implying.
|-
| 2054
| Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
| [https://www.albionmonitor.com/0403a/earth2054.html Hunger Could Be 'Unimaginable' Global Problem By 2054]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2055
| Atmospheric CO2 doubled
| [https://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/flash_intro.php Carbon Mitigation Initiative: Stabilization Wedges]
|
|-
| Oil runs out
| [https://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
| [https://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/environment/5-valuable-metals-that-could-vanish-by-2055 5 Valuable Metals That Could Vanish by 2055]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2056
| RFID-tagged driverless cars
| [https://www.zdnet.com/article/rfid-tagged-driverless-cars-on-roads-by-2056/ RFID-tagged driverless cars on roads by 2056]
|
|-
| Robots given same rights as humans
| [https://www.cc.gatech.edu/news/robots-given-same-rights-humans-2056 Robots Given Same Rights As Humans By 2056]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2057
| 150 Japanese settlers on Mars
| [https://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/9011051292/will-japan-colonize-mars Will Japan colonize Mars?]
|
|-
| Colorado River runs dry
| [https://news.agu.org/press-release/colorado-river-reservoirs-could-bottom-out-from-warming-business-as-usual/ Colorado River Reservoirs Could Bottom Out From Warming]
|
|-
| 2058
| Smoking ends in New Zealand
| [https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10698966 Smoking to die out in NZ by 2058]
|
|-
| 2059
| Humans have domesticated robots
| [https://diehardempiricist.blogspot.co.nz/2012/05/6-may-2011-virtual-necking-demography.html Virtual necking, demography, and robots]
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2060
| Human race lives in peace
| [https://www.arasfoundation.org/vision.html ARAS vision/mission]
|
|-
| Extreme droughts across much of Earth
| [https://wdas.cosmosmagazine.com/news/extreme-drought-across-most-earth-30-years/ Extreme drought across most of Earth by 2060]
|
|-
| Global temperature rise reaches 4 °C
| {{w|Avoiding dangerous climate change}}
|
|-
| Oil runs out again
| [https://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/01/oil-may-run-out-by-2060-hsbc/?__lsa=98a7-5c61 Oil may run out by 2060: HSBC]
|
|-
| 2061
| Halley's comet returns
| Halley's comet returns to the inner solar system (the vicinity of earth and the sun) every 75.3 years. The last time it was near earth was in 1985-1986. When it next returns, its closest approach to the sun will occur on [https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi 28 July 2061.]
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2062
| Uganda hosts World Cup
| [https://shillingscents.blogspot.co.nz/2010/07/uganda-to-host-world-cup-in-2062.html Uganda to host world cup in 2062]
|
|-
| The Jetsons
| {{w|The Jetsons}} was an animated science fiction sitcom that first aired in 1962. The show was set in the year 2062.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2063
| First human clones reach adulthood
| [https://au.ign.com/articles/2004/04/28/the-fall-last-days-of-gaia-diary-2 The Fall - Last Days of Gaia Diary #2]
|
|-
| Population of Moon reaches 100,000
| Reading Eagle newspaper article from July 17, 1963 - [https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1955&dat=19630717&id=PhgrAAAAIBAJ&sjid=B50FAAAAIBAJ&pg=4055,6599008 Moon Population of 100,000 Is Predicted for 2063] and [https://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Population of Mars reaches 10,000
| [https://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Spacecraft exceed speed of light
| Physics as currently understood states that it is impossible to exceed the speed of light. A monumental shift in our physics would have had to have occurred for this to come true. This is a reference to the 8th Star Trek feature Film: "Star Trek: First Contact" where Zefram Cochrane performs the first human Warp Flight on April 5, 2063.
|
|-
| 2064
| Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
| [https://www.cleanhouston.org/air/features/hazyfuture.htm State plan guarantees a hazy future for Texas’ wilderness areas]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2065
| Last coral reefs die out
| From an [https://www.edgeofexistence.org/coral_reef_conservation/coral_reef_video.php article about a video called Reefs on the Edge] set in 2065 where a 15-year-old girl tells her grandfather's stories of coral reefs, and their demise.
|
|-
| Chernobyl cleanup complete
| [https://rt.com/politics/chernobyl-clean-in-55-years-time/ Chernobyl clean in 55 years time?]
|
|-
| 2066
| Cyprus achieves its goal
| This is from some [https://www.cyprus-forum.com/cyprus33608-110.html#p665612 forum posts on the decendants of Cypriots] that lends support to the autonomy of Cyprus from Greek or Turkey.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2067
| Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
| The article at [https://blogs.lib.unc.edu/ncm/index.php/2013/11/15/artifact-of-the-month-slide-rule-1916/ Artifact of the Month: Slide rule, 1916] includes information from the International Slide Rule Museum that "in 1967, Keuffel & Esser Co. commissioned a study of the future, predicting that Americans in 2067 would live in domed cities and watch 3D television."
|
|-
| Redheads go extinct
| [https://science.howstuffworks.com/life/genetic/redhead-extinction.htm Are redheads going extinct?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2068
| Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
| [https://www.theozonehole.com/recovery.htm NASA Study Finds Clock Ticking Slower On Ozone Hole Recovery]
|
|-
| Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
| [https://myth-one.com/chapter_8.htm The Resurrections -- What Really Happens]
|
|-
| Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
| [https://thedailybanter.com/2013/01/alex-jones-the-government-is-trying-to-make-more-gay-people/ Alex Jones talks about chemicals that make people gay]
|
|-
| 2069
| Public masturbation legalized
| [https://uncyclopedia.com/wiki/UnNews:It's_still_not_okay_to_Pull_Your_Penis_out_in_Public It's still not okay to Pull Your Penis out in Public]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2070
| World population peaks
| [https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1108-global-population-to-peak-in-2070.html Global population to peak in 2070]
|
|-
| City-scale flooding disasters
| [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthnews/3317033/City-scale-flooding-disasters-predicted-by-2070.html City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070]
|
|-
| 60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
| [https://www.ssisolarenergy.com/solar-alternative-energy/ What Is Alternative Energy All About?]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2071
| Europe's temperatures rise by 3 °C
| [https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/climate-energy/climate-change-adaptation/adaptation-tools/project-catalog/peseta-projection-of-economic-impacts-of-climate Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis]
|
|-
| World summer temperatures rise by 5 °C
| [https://www.climateadaptation.eu/denmark/climate-change/ See "Air temperature changes in the 21st century"]
|
|-
| 2072
| US retirement age is set to 75
| [https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/articles/2012/06/11/how-high-will-the-retirement-age-go Up to 70-80 years]
|
|-
| 2073
| Oceans do not rise one foot
| [https://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm More like 2 feet]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2074
| Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
| [https://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-8848188.html UK to have 1 million centenarians by 2074]
|
|-
| Supertyphoons hit Japan
| [https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/09/08/national/super-typhoons-in-store-as-seas-warm/ Super typhoons in store as seas warm]
|
|-
| 2075
| US retirement age set to 69
| [https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2010/1112/Retirement-age-at-69-Deficit-plan-hits-Social-Security Retirement age at 69? Deficit plan hits Social Security]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2076
| Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
| [https://doclib.uhasselt.be/dspace/bitstream/1942/871/1/yitzhaki373.PDF Multiple Authorship in Biochemistry and Other Fields] (PDF)
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2078
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The same prediction was made for 2017 and 2022. Even when most prognosticators agree that something will happen, there can still be much disagreement about ''when'' it will happen.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2079
| US debt reaches 716% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
| [https://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2011/feb/climate-change-causing-demise-lodgepole-pine-western-north-america Climate change causing demise of lodgepole pine in western North America]
|
|-
| Floods commonplace
| [https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090108101627.htm Floods To Become Commonplace By 2080]
|
|-
| Religion marginalized
| https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-11347073
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2080
| Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
| [https://crfb.org/sites/default/files/our_debt_problems_are_far_from_solved_updated_2.pdf Our debt problems are far from solved] (PDF)
|
|-
| UK population doubles
| [https://forums.canadiancontent.net/international-politics/69603-britains-population-hit-110-million.html Britain's population to hit 110 million]
|
|-
| 2082
| World population declines to one billion
| [https://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html Population: The Elephant in the Room]
|
|-
| 2084
| Robot policemen introduced
| [https://www.thetechherald.com/articles/Robotic-cops-set-to-stamp-out-crime-by-2084 Robotic cops set to stamp out crime by 2084]
|
|-
| 2085
| US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
| [https://moneybob.com/2010/06/28/paul-krugman-throws-in-towel-says-were-headed-for-another-depression/ Paul Krugman Throws In Towel, Says We’re Headed For Another Depression]
|
|-
| 2088
| Japan becomes all-robot country
| [https://www.theretributioners.tv/erics-blog/2009/11/25/-japan-to-become-all-robot-country-by-2088.html Japan To Become All Robot Country By 2088]
|
|-
| 2089
| World halts fossil fuel use
| {{w|Fossil Fuels}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2090
| Global warming hits 7 °C
| [https://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/models-warn-of-7c-dangerous-climate-change-by-2090.html Models warn of 7C dangerous climate change by 2090]. Climate change, especially global warming, is a [[:Category:Climate change|recurring theme]] in xkcd.
|
|-
| Global warming hits 4 °C
| Summarized [https://www.global-warming-forecasts.com/2090-climate-change-global-warming-2090.php here]. In reference to Andy Bowers, “Analysis: Scientists say global warming could affect California's drinking water supply,” NPR All Things Considered, June 22, 2001
|
|-
| rowspan="11"| 2100
| Global warming around 5-7 °C
| [https://grist.org/article/bau-fd/ Hadley Center study warns of ‘catastrophic’ 5-7°C warming by 2100 on current emissions path]
|
|-
| Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
| {{w|Future sea level}}
|
|-
| Joshua trees nearly extinct
| [https://news.discovery.com/earth/joshua-trees-climate-change-110325.htm Joshua Trees Nearly Wiped Out by 2100?]
|
|-
| Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
| [https://www.pnas.org/content/107/2/576 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100]
|
|-
| Germany tropical
| [https://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/climate-change-predictions-a-tropical-germany-by-2100-a-463378.html Climate Change Predictions: A Tropical Germany by 2100?]
|
|-
| Emperor penguins extinct
| [https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7851276.stm Emperor penguins face extinction]
|
|-
| Arctic permafrost thaws
| [https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/surface-permafrost-could/ Surface Permafrost Could Disappear by 2100]
|
|-
| Rising seas flood coastal cities
| [https://uanews.org/story/rising-seas-will-affect-major-us-coastal-cities-2100 Rising Seas Will Affect Major U.S. Coastal Cities by 2100]
|
|-
| Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
| [https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/08/06/890970/-Massive-Loss-of-Rainforest-Species-by-2100-eKos-Earthship-Friday Massive Loss of Rainforest Species by 2100]
|
|-
| All coral reefs gone
| [https://planetsave.com/2010/10/15/coral-reefs-gone-by-2100/ Coral Reefs Gone by 2100?]
|
|-
| Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
| Each iteration of the Gillette line of safety razors has one more blade than the previous one. MadTV has also [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FAP8o5ZEo0 parodied] this. Over five years before MadTV did so, the Australian comedy group the D-Generation parodied the first two-bladed razor as the [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YleuLyCUx28 Gillette 3000] with 16 blades.
|
|-
| 2101
| WAR WAS BEGINNING
| References {{w|Zero Wing}}, a 1989 Japanese computer game set in 2101, famous for poorly translated English and the source for "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}". See [[286: All Your Base]]
|
|}
<references/>

==Transcript==

:<big>'''THE FUTURE'''</big>
:'''According to Google search results'''
:Events for each year determined by the first page of Google search results for the phrases:
:"By <year>" "In year"
:"By the year <year>" "In the year <year>"
:"Will * by the year <year>" "Will * in the year <year>"
:"In <year>, * will" "By <year>, * will"
:
:;2012
::World population reaches 7 billion
::Flying cars reach market
::Canada cuts greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels as per Kyoto
::Apocalypse occurs
:;2013
::National debt paid off through President Clinton's plans
::Microchipping of all Americans begins
::Homelessness ended in Massachusetts
::Health care reform law repealed
:;2014
::US leaves Afghanistan
::GNU/Linux becomes dominant OS
:;2015
::New Horizons reaches Pluto
::Health care law causes hyperinflation
::192 UN member nations achieve millennium development goals:
::*Extreme poverty and hunger eradicated
::*Universal primary education implemented
::*Women empowered, gender equality reached
::*Environmental stability ensured
:;2016
::Baby boomers begin turning 65
::Android takes 38% of the smartphone market
::Android takes 45% of the smartphone market
::Windows Phone overtakes iOS in smartphones
:;2017
::China completes unmanned Lunar sample-return mission
::Social Security stops running surplus
::US budget balanced
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
::Cosmetic surgery doubles
:;2018
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Jesus returns to Earth
:;2019
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Every baby has genes mapped at birth
:;2020
::Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
::Keyboards and mice become obsolete
::New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
:;2021
::US debt reaches 97% of GDP
::US unemployment falls to 2.8%
::Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
::Lake Mead evaporates
:;2022
::Kilimanjaro snow-free
::HTML 5 finished
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2023
::Jesus returns to Earth (again)
::US debt passes 100% of GDP
::All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
:;2024
::Atlantis begins to reappear
::Orangutans extinct in wild
::China lands men and women on the moon
::NASA sets up permanent moon base
::Female professionals pass males in pay
:;2025
::World population reaches 8 billion
::Two billion people face water shortages
::62 MPG cars introduced
::US power fades
:;2026
::Atlantis emerges completely
::Rock Bands die out
::US debt paid off
::Car accidents cease
::West coast falls into ocean
:;2027
::Japan introduces new fastest maglev train
::Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony established
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2028
::Tobacco outlawed
::40% of coral reefs gone
::US debt paid off
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2029
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
::Computers pass the Turing Test
::Aging reversed
::Wikipedia reaches 30 million articles
:;2030
::Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
::Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
::Arctic ice-free in summer
:;2031
::Computers controlled by thought
::Realtors replaced by technology
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2032
::"Big One" hits San Francisco
::US elects first married lesbian president
::Entire world converted to Christianity
:;2033
::Kilimanjaro ice disappears
::India becomes superpower
::Europe reaches Mars
:;2034
::US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
::US builds autonomous robot army
:;2035
::80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
::Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
::Arctic sea lane opens
:;2036
::80% of US has access to high-speed rail
::Asteroid Apophis hits/misses Earth
:;2037
::Arctic ice-free in September
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2038
::32-bit timestamps role over, causing Y2K-level chaos
::"Big One" hits California
:;2039
::US population hits 400 million
::Severe heat waves become commonplace
::Scientology becomes majority religion in US
:;2040
::Arctic summers ice-free
::Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
:;2041
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2042
:;2043
::World population passes 9 billion
:;2044
::Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
::Childhood obesity reaches 100%
:;2045
::Humans and machines merge
:;2046
::World's natural resources depleted
:;2047
::World ruled by banks and corporations
::Tobacco industry fails
::US begins using autonomous attack drones
:;2048
::Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
::Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
::Entire US population overweight
:;2049
::$1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
::Singularity occurs
::Fishing industry collapses
:;2050
::80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
::China controls space
::Sex with robots possible
::Cars banned from European cities
::One million species extinct from climate change
:;2051
::Atmosphere escapes into space
:;2052
::Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
:;2053
::US budget balanced
::Majority of Americans in prison
::Cars driven by dogs
:;2054
::Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
:;2055
::Atmospheric CO2 doubled
::Oil runs out
::Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
:;2056
::RFID-tagged driverless cars
::Robots given same rights as humans
:;2057
::150 Japanese settlers on Mars
::Colorado River runs dry
:;2058
::Smoking ends in New Zealand
:;2059
::Humans have domesticated robots
:;2060
::Human race lives in peace
::Extreme droughts across much of Earth
::Global temperature rise reaches 4°C
::Oil runs out again
:;2061
::Halley's comet returns
:;2062
::Uganda hosts World Cup
::The Jetsons
:;2063
::First human clones reach adulthood
::Population of Moon reaches 100,000
::Population of Mars reaches 10,000
::Spacecraft exceed speed of light
:;2064
::Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
:;2065
::Last coral reefs die out
::Chernobyl cleanup complete
:;2066
::Cyprus achieves its goal
:;2067
::Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
::Redheads go extinct
:;2068
::Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
::Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
::Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
:;2069
::Public masturbation legalized
:;2070
::World population peaks
::City-scale flooding disasters
::60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
:;2071
::Europe's temperatures rise by 3°C
::World summer temperatures rise by 5°C
:;2072
::US retirement age is set to 75
:;2073
::Oceans do not rise one foot
:;2074
::Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
::Supertyphoons hit Japan
:;2075
::US retirement age set to 69
:;2076
::Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2077
:;2078
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2079
::US debt reaches 716% of GDP
::Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
::Floods commonplace
::Religion marginalized
:;2080
::Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
::UK population doubles
:;2081
:;2082
::World population declines to one billion
:;2083
:;2084
::Robot policemen introduced
:;2085
::US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
:;2086
:;2087
:;2088
::Japan becomes all-robot country
:;2089
::World halts fossil fuel use
:;2090
::Global warming hits 7°C
::Global warming hits 4°C
:;2091
:;2092
:;2093
:;2094
:;2095
:;2096
:;2097
:;2098
:;2099
:;2100
::Global warming around 5-7°C
::Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
::Joshua trees nearly extinct
::Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
::Germany tropical
::Emperor penguins extinct
::Arctic permafrost thaws
::Rising seas flood coastal cities
::Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
::All coral reefs gone
::Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
:;2101
::WAR WAS BEGINNING

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Large drawings]]
[[Category:Timelines]]
[[Category:Google Search]]
[[Category:Climate change]]
[[Category:Singularity]]
[[Category:Renewable energy]]
[[Category:Smartphones]]
[[Category:Wikipedia]]

887: Future Timeline

2024-07-03T23:52:31Z

Regex user: update wikipedia stats

{{comic
| number = 887
| date = April 18, 2011
| title = Future Timeline
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]
| image = future timeline.png
| titletext = Not shown: the approximately 30,000 identical, vaguely hysterical articles titled "WHITE PEOPLE IN [THE US/BRITAIN] TO BECOME MINORITY BY [YEAR]!", which came up for basically any year I put in.
}}

{{TOC}}==Explanation==
This comic uses the same strategy as comic [[715: Numbers]], in which [[Randall]] uses Google to search for phrases and then charts the results. This one is charted as a timeline, whereas 715 was charted as line graphs.
It is a list of things predicted or announced by anyone at any time (the ones you see on Google search using "by the year..." or similar statements).

"2101 - War Was Beginning" is a reference to the opening narration of video game ''Zero Wing''; the same narration is famous for the internet meme "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}". As there are not any other out and out references in the comic, and the rest are actually results that you can find using Randall's methods, "War Was Beginning" was probably the only thing he got when he googled 2101 as well.

Certain events in this comic, e.g., "Social Security stops running surplus", are repeated multiple times. Also, certain bizarre events, like "Apocalypse occurs", or "Flying cars reach market", happen before rather plausible things, like "'Big one' hits California". Certain events, like "Japan is a robot-only country" or "Gillette introduces 14-blade razor" may be related to the recurring theme [[605: Extrapolating]].

The title text is a reference to a reoccurring scaremonger theory that European people will become a minority or extinct as other ethnicities outbreed them. For maximum scaremongering they will claim this could happen in the near future, complete with extrapolated graphs. In the years since this comic was published these conspiracy theories have come to be known as "the great replacement" or "white genocide". Scaremongers are banking on the idea their target audience will [https://www.cjr.org/special_report/media-literacy-trump-fake-news.php rarely bother to fact check,] as analysis of their extrapolations usually reveals incorrect methodology [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUbxVfSqtt8 if not outright lies.]

This comic has similar features to [[1413: Suddenly Popular]], [[1093: Forget]], and [[891: Movie Ages]].

==The predictions==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Year
! Prediction
! Further Details
! Outcome
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2012
| World population
| Ever since the advent of modern medicine and the more efficient agricultural processes developed since the Industrial Revolution, the human population had been growing at an unprecedented rate. This has caused some people to {{w|Human overpopulation|worry about overpopulation}}, which would cause a scarcity of resources and overcrowding, and propose various solutions, most of which involve some form of eugenics. 7 billion is a landmark number because it is a multiple of 1 billion.
| Close; Earth reached 7 billion in late 2011.
|-
| Flying cars
| For decades, flying cars have been a staple of futuristic sci-fi and technological predictions. So far very few of these predictions, which to tend to hover around 5–10 years from whatever the current date is, have come true.
| Too early; a flying car was first demonstrated in July 2021.{{Actual citation needed}} You could argue that helicopters count as flying cars, but these are not affordable{{citation needed}} and hence not widely used by the general public.
|-
| Canada cuts greenhouse emissions
| Currently, the Earth is experiencing an unprecedented period of warming we call global warming, caused in part by greenhouse emissions, which are gases that help trap heat in the atmosphere. Countries have repeatedly gotten together and promised to stop emitting greenhouse gases, but so far they have failed to meet their targets.
| False. Canada withdrew from the Kyoto treaty in late 2011, and its emissions in 2012 were 18% ''above'' 1990 levels (though its population had grown 26% and its GDP had grown 67% in that period).
|-
| Apocalypse occurs
| The end of a cycle of the Mayan calendar on December 22, 2012 has been used in popular culture as a basis for predicting the end of the world. Amongst other things, this included the film '2012'. Some people took this rather more seriously, and actually believed that the world would end on this date.
| False.{{Citation needed}}
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2013
| National debt paid off
| For years, the subject of national debt (in the USA) has been a political point of contention. While both parties theoretically support reducing the debt or paying it off entirely, Democrats are more willing to spend to pull the country out of recessions in the economy and Republicans to cut taxes. The last time that spending did not exceed revenue begin under Clinton, a Democrat, and ended after George W. Bush, a Republican, said that this amounted to taxpayers being "overcharged" and taxes were lowered, followed by the Great Recession. Clinton at one point proposed [https://money.cnn.com/1999/06/28/economy/clinton/ paying off the debt by 2015].
| False.
|-
| Microchipping Americans
| Microchips are small computer chips, typically embedded in pets in case they get lost, that contain information about the pet. Some, more paranoid, people worry about the government microchipping everyone in an effort to monitor their activities.
| False, although RFID implants do exist.
|-
| Homelessness ended in MA
| In 2008, the Commission To End Homelessness in Massachusetts, under Governor Deval Patrick, proposed a plan to all but eliminate homelessness over the next five years (hence the 2013 end-date on the comic).
| False.
|-
| Health care reform law repealed
| A health care reform law, popularly known as Obamacare, was signed into law in 2010. Ever since, many Republicans have tried (in vain) to repeal it, disliking the idea that government should provide and require healthcare. However, President [[Joe Biden]] has stated to restore Obamacare.
| Too early; almost repealed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2014
| US leaves Afghanistan
| After the {{w|September 11 attacks|terrorist attack}} on the {{w|World Trade Center (1973–2001)|World Trade Center}} (WTC) in New York on September 11, 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan, which at the time allegedly hosted the headquarters of al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization behind the attacks. The war has gone on since then, with the public growing increasingly tired of it. Public support then favoured a withdrawal, but for military and logistical reasons, the government could not simply move all the US troops in Afghanistan to their home. Therefore, the government promised to eventually withdraw all troops, initially planned to do so by the end of 2014.
| Too early; the remaining US troops [https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/afghanistan-afghan-troops-struggle-to-replace-americans-at-key-bagram-air-base-2480356 left Afghanistan in June 2021.]
|-
| GNU/Linux dominant OS
| An operating system, or OS, is the software that forms the structure in which applications on you computer function. Some typical OSs include Mac OS X, Windows 10, and Linux. The first two of those three are commercial products, sold as a copy by a company. The last is an open-source OS, one that anyone can download and modify free. Typically, open-source software is used by a small number of socially conscious people.
| False, although Linux-based Android dominated phones since 2011.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2015
| New Horizon reaches Pluto
| The New Horizon spacecraft is a U.S. space mission designed to go to Pluto and take photographs, collect samples, etc.
| True. [https://pluto.jhuapl.edu It reached Pluto on July 14, 2015].
|-
| Healthcare law causes hyperinflation
| The National Inflation Association warned that the [https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/healthcare-bill-to-cause-us-hyperinflation-by-2015-88711032.html healthcare bill would cause U.S. hyperinflation by 2015.]
| False.
|-
| Millennium development goals achieved
| {{w|Millennium Development Goals}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2016
| Baby boomers begin turning 65
| {{w|Baby boomers}} are individuals conceived in the years following World War Two, roughly defined as those born from 1946-1959. This isn't so much a prediction as basic math; if you were born in 1946, you turned 65 in 2011.
| True.
|-
| Android takes 38%/45% of market share
| {{w|Android (operating system)|Android}} is a popular operating system for smartphones and tablets, created by Google. Market share is the percentage of all devices that use the product, in this case the Android operating system. These entries together are humorous because they cannot both happen at the same time.
| Too late; passed these marks in 2010. {{w|Android OS}}'s [https://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp market share was already 84.4% as of the third quarter of 2014,] showing that both estimates were overly conservative.
|-
| Windows phone overtakes iOS
| {{w|iOS}} is the operating system used by Apple iPhones. At the time of the comic, Apple's mobile OS is much more popular than Microsoft's. The article Randall found predicts that the tables will turn. However, Windows Phone was discontinued in 2017, with support for the last version (Windows Phone 10) ending on December 10, 2019.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2017
| China completes lunar mission
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
| False. The first sample-return mission was completed in November 2020.
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| The first of many predictions about the United States {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} trust fund program, all predicting its decline due to a variety of factors.
| Too early. Occurred in 2021.
|-
| US budget balanced
| The {{w|United States federal budget}} outlines how much the US government spends on what in a given fiscal year. The budget is not required to be balanced, and so often more money is spent than is earned in revenue, causing the national debt to rise.
| False. Still pretty negative.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The increasing popularity of internet media and mobile devices has caused a steady decline in the popularity of print media.
| False. Though newspapers are in decline, they are certainly not obsolete as of 2017, or 2022, for that matter.
|-
| Cosmetic surgery doubles
| {{w|Cosmetic Surgery}}
| False. According to the ASPS (American Society of Plastic Surgeons), 1.6 million cosmetic surgeries were performed in 2011, while 1.8 million were performed in 2017, an increase of only 0.2 million.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2018
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still too early.
|-
| Jesus returns to Earth
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the {{w|second coming}} or the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible and other religious texts says that "no man can know the date" and that it would be within the lifetime of some who witnessed Jesus's first appearance. Several predicted dates have come and gone.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2019
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still too early.
|-
| Every baby has genes mapped at birth
| {{w|Gene Mapping}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2020
| Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
| Scientists estimate that more than half of the {{w|fossil fuels}} in existence have already been found and that fossil fuel production will begin to decline due to the scarcity, causing prices to increase. At the same time, improvements in {{w|Solar Power|solar technology}} are causing the prices for solar energy to steadily decrease.
| True, though only in {{w|Cost of electricity by source#Recent_global_studies|certain cases}}.
|-
| Keyboards and mice become obsolete
| {{w|Computer input device|Computer input devices}} are beginning to adopt other inputs, such as trackpads, voice commands, touch screens, and eye tracking. While touch screens in particular are gaining widespread use with the rise of smartphones and tablets, as of 2022 desktop computers that use mice are still fairly common. And while voice-to-text has greatly improved, it still doesn't have the accuracy to replace typing. None of the other text inputs are as fast as a keyboard, and none are suitable for writing program code.
| False. While touchscreen devices ''are'' increasingly common, desktop computers are still very much in use. Mice continue to be used alongside touchscreens and trackpads, and keyboards remain the dominant method of writing on computers.
|-
| New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
| A {{w|Tappan_Zee_Bridge#Replacement_bridge|replacement bridge}} was announced in 2008.
| Too late; completed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2021
| US debt reaches 97% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
| Too late; reached in 2011.
|-
| US unemployment falls to 2.8%
| {{w|Unemployment in the United States}}
| False: because of the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment has actually ''increased''.
|-
| Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
| A {{w|caliphate}} is a form of {{w|Islam|Islamic}} political-religious leadership, centred around a Caliph, or successor to the prophet {{w|Muhammad}}. This may be foreshadowing of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which has as its goal the creation of a restored caliphate.
| False.
|-
| Lake Mead evaporates
| Formed by the {{w|Hoover Dam}} on the {{w|Colorado River}}, {{w|Lake Mead}} is the largest reservoir in the United States (measured by maximum capacity). It hasn't reached its capacity since 1983, due to drought and increased demand for water. This is linked to {{w|global warming}}.
| False, although water levels continue to fall.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2022
| Kilimanjaro snow-free
| At 5,895 metres, {{w|Kilimanjaro}} is the highest mountain in {{w|Africa}}, and the highest free-standing mountain in the world. Around 85% of its ice cover disappeared between 1912 and 2011, and it continues to recede.
| False.
|-
| HTML 5 finished
| The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) began work on {{w|HTML 5}} in 2004.
| Too late; 5.0 specification released in 2014, but incremental updates continue.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| This is the second time this prediction has appeared.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2023
| Jesus returns to Earth (again)
| Again.
| False.
|-
| US debt passes 100% of GDP
| This references the common fear that {{w|US Debt}} will exceed GDP, possibly causing {{w|Economic bubble|economic turmoil}}.
| Too late; reached in 2012.
|-
| All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
| Likely due to a combination of wildfire and {{w|deforestation}}.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2024
| Atlantis begins to reappear
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. It's not clear why ''rising'' sea level would make it reappear.
|
|-
| Orangutans extinct in wild
| {{w|Orangutan|Orangutans}} are a species of great ape, currently classed as an {{w|endangered species}}, and found only in the {{w|Rainforest|rainforests}} of {{w|Borneo}} and {{w|Sumatra}}.
|
|-
| China lands men and women on the moon
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
| False; the Chinese government planned a manned mission to the moon for the 2030s.
|-
| NASA sets up permanent moon base
| There has been a lot of hype recently about finally returning to the moon, vis-a-vis Orion.
|
|-
| Female professionals pass males in pay
| There are two possible explanations for this entry: Either it's fear-mongering from misogynists or, more probably, an erroneous extrapolation from the current rate at which female incomes are catching up to male incomes.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2025
| World population reaches 8 billion
| Given current rates, it seems unlikely it will take this long to hit 8 billion, but advances in birth control options and especially their availability in developing nations may slow the current rate considerably.
| Too late..? This number was reached in late 2022. Hopefully there won't be a reason for the number to suddenly plummet in 2025.
|-
| Two billion people face water shortages
| https://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/28-01-2008/103693-water_crisis-0/
|
|-
| 62 MPG cars introduced
| 62 miles per gallon, ~3.8 L/100km. 62 MPG is a very good mileage rate at today's standard, even though [https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=5231050&page=1 some cars can be driven carefully so as to attain over 100 MPG].
|
|-
| US power fades
| https://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-us-power-will-fade-by-2025/
| Hard to know what the precise metric for this would be.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2026
| Atlantis emerges completely
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. It seems that it has taken 2 years for it to emerge completely.
|
|-
| Rock Bands die out
| https://bestbands.wordpress.com/2009/01/25/rock-bands-to-die-out-by-2026/
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| [https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/business/27view.html It’s 2026, and the Debt Is Due.]
|
|-
| Car accidents cease
| Presumably, cars will be fully automated and able to pilot themselves at this point and will have fail-safes that prevent collisions currently attributed to user error. Car accidents will always be possible, however, due to mechanical and electrical failures.
|
|-
| West coast falls into ocean
| Most likely due to {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|a significant seismic event}}.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2027
| Japan introduces new fastest Maglev train
| Japan's railway systems are famous for their "bullet trains", or {{w|Shinkansen}}. The Chūō Shinkansen is planned to be opened in this year.
|
|-
| Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony is established
| https://totse.mattfast1.com/en/technology/space_astronomy_nasa/moonmars.html
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2028
| Tobacco outlawed
| Tobacco products (cigarettes and chewing tobacco) have become more and more taboo in modern culture, with most public places and private businesses forbidding their use indoors and near places children congregate.
|
|-
| 40% of coral reefs gone
| Many factors have been attributed to the decline of {{w|Coral_reef#Threats|coral reefs}}, including mining, over fishing, and rising ocean tempteratures.
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2029
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| The next stage of the collapse of {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}. After years of deficits deplete the trust fund, the program will only be able to pay out as much in benefits as it takes in each year.
|
|-
| Computers pass the Turing test
| It is no coincidence that 2029 is the timeline for Terminator Movies.
| Some computer programs already clear the Turing Test about 30% of the time.
|-
| Aging reversed
| [https://www.zdnet.com/article/manhattan-beach-project-to-reverse-aging-by-2029/ Manhattan Beach Project to reverse aging by 2029]
|
|-
| Wikipedia reaches 30 million articles
|
| As of July 2024, Wikipedia has over [https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/List_of_Wikipedias#Grand_Total 63.2 million total articles], if all languages are included. The source being cited may have meant the English language Wikipedia, which has only {{w|Special:Statistics|6.8 million articles}}.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2030
| Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
| WWF press release - [https://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/climate-change-speeds-up-amazon-s-destruction-says-wwf Climate Change Speeds Up Amazon’s Destruction] referring to a report on the [https://assets.panda.org/downloads/amazonas_eng_04_12b_web.pdf Amazon's vicious cycles].
|
|-
| Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
| From the [https://www.cancer.org/myacs/newengland/global-cancer-burden-to-double-by-2030 Global Cancer Burden to Nearly Double by 2030] article about the article from page 37 of [https://www.cancer.org/research/cancerfactsfigures/globalcancerfactsfigures/global-facts-figures-2nd-ed Global Cancer Facts & Figures 2nd edition].
|
|-
| Arctic ice-free in summer
| https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-video-ap.html
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2031
| Computers controlled by thought
| https://www.gizmag.com/future-mobile-technology/17554/
| As of 2017, this is {{w|Brain–computer interface|already possible}}, but still not used in any mass available devices as of 2022.
|-
| Realtors replaced by technology
| https://agbeat.com/editorials/will-realtors-be-replaced-by-technology-by-the-year-2031/
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| https://crfb.org/blogs/cbo-95-percent-confident-social-security-trust-fund-runs-out-25-years
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2032
| "Big One" hits San Francisco
| {{w|San Franscisco}} is located on the {{w|San Andreas Fault}}, which is predicted to produce a magnitude 7+ earthquake in the 'near future'. This event is referred to as {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|"The Big One"}}.
|
|-
| US elects first married lesbian President
| https://4chandata.org/g/In-what-major-ways-do-you-think-the-world-of-2032-will-be-different-from-that-of-today-a20155
|
|-
| Entire world converted to Christianity
| https://www.goddiscussion.com/38920/christian-domininionsts-to-take-over-the-world-by-2032/
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2033
| Kilimanjaro ice disappears
| https://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/02/idUSL2210825
|
|-
| India becomes superpower
| https://www.facebook.com/pages/India-A-SuperPower-by-2033/151177191568098
|
|-
| Europe reaches Mars
| [https://www.spacedaily.com/news/esa-general-03zb.html Specifically, a manned European mission]. ESA's {{w|Mars Express}} probe landed in 2003.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2034
| US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
| [https://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/27/us-diabetes-usa-costs-idUSTRE5AQ0C220091127 U.S. diabetes cases to double, costs triple by 2034]
|
|-
| US builds autonomous robot army
| The concept of robots built for military service is another common element of science fiction stories. [https://www.aos-inc.com/index.php/medialias/press-releases?id=112 Unmanned Systems] article, about the [https://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA522247 2009-2034 Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap] publication ([https://www.amazon.com/2009-Unmanned-Integrated-Aircraft-Technologies-ebook/dp/B0047743A0 details at Amazon]).
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2035
| 80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
| From fact sheet on Obama's [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/fact-sheet-state-union-president-obamas-plan-win-future State of the Union.]
|
|-
| Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
| From an IPCC report on [https://web.archive.org/web/20100116132657/https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html The Himalayan glaciers] that has been analysed in quite some depth. See for example detailed article on an [https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/02/anatomy-of-ipccs-himalayan-glacier-year-2035-mess/ anatomy of IPCC’s mistake].
|
|-
| Arctic sea lane opens
| [https://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/730ef8fe-27e1-11e0-8abc-00144feab49a.html#axzz3OBgEHYNY Arctic sea lane could open by 2035]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2036
| 80% of US has access to high-speed rail
| [https://www.wnyc.org/story/284946-obama-80-percent-of-americans-should-have-access-to-high-speed-rail-by-2036/ Obama: 80 Percent of Americans Should Have Access to High Speed Rail By 2036]
|
|-
| Asteroid Apophis misses/hits Earth
| 99942 Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2037
| Arctic ice-free in September
| {{w|Arctic sea ice decline}}
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2038
| 32-bit timestamps roll over, causing Y2K-level chaos
| On 03:14:07 UTC on 19 January 2038, the value of time_t rolls over, that is it will return to zero. time_t is a computing standard measurement of time; it is a count of the number of seconds since 00:00:00 UTC on 1 January 1970. time_t is used by most computer systems to store date and time information. It is recommended that new software should convert to a 64 bit time_t; indeed, most operating systems designed to run on 64-bit hardware already use signed 64-bit time_t integers. This would give an epoch of 15:30:08 UTC on 4 December 292,277,026,596 (292 billion years away). Of course, legacy systems may not be upgradable so action taken now should prevent this becoming a problem closer to 2038...
|
|-
| "Big One" hits California
| [https://www.presstelegram.com/technology/20080414/the-big-one-likely-to-hit-by-2038 `The big one' likely to hit by 2038]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2039
| US population hits 400 Million
| [https://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2008/us400million.aspx U.S. Population Projected to Hit 400 Million in 2039]
|
|-
| Severe heat waves become commonplace
| [https://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/july/extreme-heat-study-070810.html Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds]
|
|-
| Scientology becomes majority religion in US
| [https://home.snafu.de/tilman/2039.html Essay: Scientology in the year 2039]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2040
| Arctic summers ice-free
| [https://www.livescience.com/9419-arctic-summer-ice-free-2040.html Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2040]
|
|-
| Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
| [https://www.computerworld.com/article/2528330/app-development/nanotech-could-make-humans-immortal-by-2040--futurist-says.html Nanotech could make humans immortal by 2040, futurist says]
|
|-
| 2041
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2043
| World population passes 9 Billion
| {{w|Population growth}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2044
| Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
| Premise of the movie [https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1363468/ Zenith] - further details are in the [https://www.filmjournal.com/filmjournal/content_display/esearch/e3i25130cd57f1590bda4527c098ac85b01 film review for Zenith.]
|
|-
| Childhood obesity reaches 100%
| [https://www.ivanhoe.com/channels/p_channelstory.cfm?storyid=11414 100-Percent Childhood Obesity Predicted by 2044]
|
|-
| 2045
| Humans and machines merge
| {{w|Ray Kurzweil}} predicts of a 'singularity' which will lead to a race of super intelligent beings.
|
|-
| 2046
| World's natural resources depleted
| [https://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2047
| World ruled by banks and corporations
| [https://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Schlock-2047-RM-Krakoff-ebook/dp/B0039IT37Q Future Schlock - the story of a world turned upside down in 2047]
|
|-
| Tobacco industry fails
| [https://www.news.wisc.edu/16857 Experts: Big Tobacco dead by 2047, possibly sooner]
|
|-
| US begins using autonomous attack drones
| [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/aug/22/us-air-force-drones-pilots-afghanistan US Air Force prepares drones to end era of fighter pilots]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2048
| Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
| WWF report on [https://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ unsustainable fishing.]
|
|-
| Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
| [https://future.wikia.com/wiki/RyansWorld:_Bathing_Suits_of_the_Future RyansWorld: Bathing Suits of the Future]
|
|-
| Entire US population overweight
| [https://web.archive.org/web/20090321075605/https://thestatsblog.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/scientists-say-thin-people-face-extinction-in-united-states-everyone-will-be-overweight-by-2048-%E2%80%93-and-less-smart Scientists Say Thin People Face Extinction in United States: Everyone Will Be Overweight by 2048 – And Less Smart (archive)]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2049
| $1,000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
| [https://www.americanbar.org/content/newsletter/publications/technology_e_report_home/2007_may_technotes.html TechNotes: Trends in Technology]
|
|-
| Singularity occurs
| [https://www.prismdecision.com/the-singularity-is-near The Singularity Is Near]
|
|-
| Fishing industry collapses
| This tends to happen when your food-stock is extinct{{citation needed}} - see WWF report on [https://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ unsustainable fishing.]
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2050
| 80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
| [https://infochangeindia.org/population/books-a-reports/80-of-world-population-will-soon-be-in-urban-areas.html 80% of world population will soon be in urban areas]
|
|-
| China controls space
| [https://books.google.com/books?id=op851Uf99LQC&dq=China+controls+space+2050&source=gbs_navlinks_s Space Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050]
|
|-
| Sex with robots possible
| [https://www.livescience.com/1951-forecast-sex-marriage-robots-2050.html Forecast: Sex and Marriage with Robots by 2050]
|
|-
| Cars banned from European cities
| [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/8411336/EU-to-ban-cars-from-cities-by-2050.html EU to ban cars from cities by 2050]
|
|-
| One million species extinct from climate change
| [https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/01/0107_040107_extinction.html By 2050 Warming to Doom Million Species, Study Says]
|
|-
| 2051
| Atmosphere escapes into space
| [https://www.thehulltruth.com/boating-outdoor-photos/255705-have-you-ever-seen-fallstreak-hole.html Conspiracy theory] relating to {{w|Fallstreak hole}} or hole punch clouds.
|
|-
| 2052
| Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2053
| US budget balanced
| [https://crfb.org/blogs/omb-releases-long-term-projections-fy2015-budget-proposal OMB releases long-term projections for the FY2015 budget proposal]
|
|-
| Majority of Americans in prison
| [https://articles.philly.com/1992-06-14/news/26032105_1_prison-officials-prison-time-prison-commissioners 'Beyond Bricks And Bars' As Jails Overflow, The Lock-'em-up Credo Is Drawing Unlikely Criticism - From Prison Officials Themselves]
|
|-
| Cars driven by dogs
|
| This has [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWAK0J8Uhzk already occurred] in 2012! However, it is not as widespread as the prediction may be implying.
|-
| 2054
| Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
| [https://www.albionmonitor.com/0403a/earth2054.html Hunger Could Be 'Unimaginable' Global Problem By 2054]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2055
| Atmospheric CO2 doubled
| [https://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/flash_intro.php Carbon Mitigation Initiative: Stabilization Wedges]
|
|-
| Oil runs out
| [https://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
| [https://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/environment/5-valuable-metals-that-could-vanish-by-2055 5 Valuable Metals That Could Vanish by 2055]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2056
| RFID-tagged driverless cars
| [https://www.zdnet.com/article/rfid-tagged-driverless-cars-on-roads-by-2056/ RFID-tagged driverless cars on roads by 2056]
|
|-
| Robots given same rights as humans
| [https://www.cc.gatech.edu/news/robots-given-same-rights-humans-2056 Robots Given Same Rights As Humans By 2056]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2057
| 150 Japanese settlers on Mars
| [https://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/9011051292/will-japan-colonize-mars Will Japan colonize Mars?]
|
|-
| Colorado River runs dry
| [https://news.agu.org/press-release/colorado-river-reservoirs-could-bottom-out-from-warming-business-as-usual/ Colorado River Reservoirs Could Bottom Out From Warming]
|
|-
| 2058
| Smoking ends in New Zealand
| [https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10698966 Smoking to die out in NZ by 2058]
|
|-
| 2059
| Humans have domesticated robots
| [https://diehardempiricist.blogspot.co.nz/2012/05/6-may-2011-virtual-necking-demography.html Virtual necking, demography, and robots]
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2060
| Human race lives in peace
| [https://www.arasfoundation.org/vision.html ARAS vision/mission]
|
|-
| Extreme droughts across much of Earth
| [https://wdas.cosmosmagazine.com/news/extreme-drought-across-most-earth-30-years/ Extreme drought across most of Earth by 2060]
|
|-
| Global temperature rise reaches 4 °C
| {{w|Avoiding dangerous climate change}}
|
|-
| Oil runs out again
| [https://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/01/oil-may-run-out-by-2060-hsbc/?__lsa=98a7-5c61 Oil may run out by 2060: HSBC]
|
|-
| 2061
| Halley's comet returns
| Halley's comet returns to the inner solar system (the vicinity of earth and the sun) every 75.3 years. The last time it was near earth was in 1985-1986. When it next returns, its closest approach to the sun will occur on [https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi 28 July 2061.]
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2062
| Uganda hosts World Cup
| [https://shillingscents.blogspot.co.nz/2010/07/uganda-to-host-world-cup-in-2062.html Uganda to host world cup in 2062]
|
|-
| The Jetsons
| {{w|The Jetsons}} was an animated science fiction sitcom that first aired in 1962. The show was set in the year 2062.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2063
| First human clones reach adulthood
| [https://au.ign.com/articles/2004/04/28/the-fall-last-days-of-gaia-diary-2 The Fall - Last Days of Gaia Diary #2]
|
|-
| Population of Moon reaches 100,000
| Reading Eagle newspaper article from July 17, 1963 - [https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1955&dat=19630717&id=PhgrAAAAIBAJ&sjid=B50FAAAAIBAJ&pg=4055,6599008 Moon Population of 100,000 Is Predicted for 2063] and [https://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Population of Mars reaches 10,000
| [https://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Spacecraft exceed speed of light
| Physics as currently understood states that it is impossible to exceed the speed of light. A monumental shift in our physics would have had to have occurred for this to come true. This is a reference to the 8th Star Trek feature Film: "Star Trek: First Contact" where Zefram Cochrane performs the first human Warp Flight on April 5, 2063.
|
|-
| 2064
| Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
| [https://www.cleanhouston.org/air/features/hazyfuture.htm State plan guarantees a hazy future for Texas’ wilderness areas]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2065
| Last coral reefs die out
| From an [https://www.edgeofexistence.org/coral_reef_conservation/coral_reef_video.php article about a video called Reefs on the Edge] set in 2065 where a 15-year-old girl tells her grandfather's stories of coral reefs, and their demise.
|
|-
| Chernobyl cleanup complete
| [https://rt.com/politics/chernobyl-clean-in-55-years-time/ Chernobyl clean in 55 years time?]
|
|-
| 2066
| Cyprus achieves its goal
| This is from some [https://www.cyprus-forum.com/cyprus33608-110.html#p665612 forum posts on the decendants of Cypriots] that lends support to the autonomy of Cyprus from Greek or Turkey.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2067
| Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
| The article at [https://blogs.lib.unc.edu/ncm/index.php/2013/11/15/artifact-of-the-month-slide-rule-1916/ Artifact of the Month: Slide rule, 1916] includes information from the International Slide Rule Museum that "in 1967, Keuffel & Esser Co. commissioned a study of the future, predicting that Americans in 2067 would live in domed cities and watch 3D television."
|
|-
| Redheads go extinct
| [https://science.howstuffworks.com/life/genetic/redhead-extinction.htm Are redheads going extinct?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2068
| Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
| [https://www.theozonehole.com/recovery.htm NASA Study Finds Clock Ticking Slower On Ozone Hole Recovery]
|
|-
| Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
| [https://myth-one.com/chapter_8.htm The Resurrections -- What Really Happens]
|
|-
| Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
| [https://thedailybanter.com/2013/01/alex-jones-the-government-is-trying-to-make-more-gay-people/ Alex Jones talks about chemicals that make people gay]
|
|-
| 2069
| Public masturbation legalized
| [https://uncyclopedia.com/wiki/UnNews:It's_still_not_okay_to_Pull_Your_Penis_out_in_Public It's still not okay to Pull Your Penis out in Public]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2070
| World population peaks
| [https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1108-global-population-to-peak-in-2070.html Global population to peak in 2070]
|
|-
| City-scale flooding disasters
| [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthnews/3317033/City-scale-flooding-disasters-predicted-by-2070.html City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070]
|
|-
| 60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
| [https://www.ssisolarenergy.com/solar-alternative-energy/ What Is Alternative Energy All About?]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2071
| Europe's temperatures rise by 3 °C
| [https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/climate-energy/climate-change-adaptation/adaptation-tools/project-catalog/peseta-projection-of-economic-impacts-of-climate Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis]
|
|-
| World summer temperatures rise by 5 °C
| [https://www.climateadaptation.eu/denmark/climate-change/ See "Air temperature changes in the 21st century"]
|
|-
| 2072
| US retirement age is set to 75
| [https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/articles/2012/06/11/how-high-will-the-retirement-age-go Up to 70-80 years]
|
|-
| 2073
| Oceans do not rise one foot
| [https://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm More like 2 feet]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2074
| Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
| [https://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-8848188.html UK to have 1 million centenarians by 2074]
|
|-
| Supertyphoons hit Japan
| [https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/09/08/national/super-typhoons-in-store-as-seas-warm/ Super typhoons in store as seas warm]
|
|-
| 2075
| US retirement age set to 69
| [https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2010/1112/Retirement-age-at-69-Deficit-plan-hits-Social-Security Retirement age at 69? Deficit plan hits Social Security]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2076
| Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
| [https://doclib.uhasselt.be/dspace/bitstream/1942/871/1/yitzhaki373.PDF Multiple Authorship in Biochemistry and Other Fields] (PDF)
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2078
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The same prediction was made for 2017 and 2022. Even when most prognosticators agree that something will happen, there can still be much disagreement about ''when'' it will happen.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2079
| US debt reaches 716% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
| [https://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2011/feb/climate-change-causing-demise-lodgepole-pine-western-north-america Climate change causing demise of lodgepole pine in western North America]
|
|-
| Floods commonplace
| [https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090108101627.htm Floods To Become Commonplace By 2080]
|
|-
| Religion marginalized
| https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-11347073
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2080
| Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
| [https://crfb.org/sites/default/files/our_debt_problems_are_far_from_solved_updated_2.pdf Our debt problems are far from solved] (PDF)
|
|-
| UK population doubles
| [https://forums.canadiancontent.net/international-politics/69603-britains-population-hit-110-million.html Britain's population to hit 110 million]
|
|-
| 2082
| World population declines to one billion
| [https://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html Population: The Elephant in the Room]
|
|-
| 2084
| Robot policemen introduced
| [https://www.thetechherald.com/articles/Robotic-cops-set-to-stamp-out-crime-by-2084 Robotic cops set to stamp out crime by 2084]
|
|-
| 2085
| US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
| [https://moneybob.com/2010/06/28/paul-krugman-throws-in-towel-says-were-headed-for-another-depression/ Paul Krugman Throws In Towel, Says We’re Headed For Another Depression]
|
|-
| 2088
| Japan becomes all-robot country
| [https://www.theretributioners.tv/erics-blog/2009/11/25/-japan-to-become-all-robot-country-by-2088.html Japan To Become All Robot Country By 2088]
|
|-
| 2089
| World halts fossil fuel use
| {{w|Fossil Fuels}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2090
| Global warming hits 7 °C
| [https://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/models-warn-of-7c-dangerous-climate-change-by-2090.html Models warn of 7C dangerous climate change by 2090]. Climate change, especially global warming, is a [[:Category:Climate change|recurring theme]] in xkcd.
|
|-
| Global warming hits 4 °C
| Summarized [https://www.global-warming-forecasts.com/2090-climate-change-global-warming-2090.php here]. In reference to Andy Bowers, “Analysis: Scientists say global warming could affect California's drinking water supply,” NPR All Things Considered, June 22, 2001
|
|-
| rowspan="11"| 2100
| Global warming around 5-7 °C
| [https://grist.org/article/bau-fd/ Hadley Center study warns of ‘catastrophic’ 5-7°C warming by 2100 on current emissions path]
|
|-
| Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
| {{w|Future sea level}}
|
|-
| Joshua trees nearly extinct
| [https://news.discovery.com/earth/joshua-trees-climate-change-110325.htm Joshua Trees Nearly Wiped Out by 2100?]
|
|-
| Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
| [https://www.pnas.org/content/107/2/576 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100]
|
|-
| Germany tropical
| [https://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/climate-change-predictions-a-tropical-germany-by-2100-a-463378.html Climate Change Predictions: A Tropical Germany by 2100?]
|
|-
| Emperor penguins extinct
| [https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7851276.stm Emperor penguins face extinction]
|
|-
| Arctic permafrost thaws
| [https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/surface-permafrost-could/ Surface Permafrost Could Disappear by 2100]
|
|-
| Rising seas flood coastal cities
| [https://uanews.org/story/rising-seas-will-affect-major-us-coastal-cities-2100 Rising Seas Will Affect Major U.S. Coastal Cities by 2100]
|
|-
| Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
| [https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/08/06/890970/-Massive-Loss-of-Rainforest-Species-by-2100-eKos-Earthship-Friday Massive Loss of Rainforest Species by 2100]
|
|-
| All coral reefs gone
| [https://planetsave.com/2010/10/15/coral-reefs-gone-by-2100/ Coral Reefs Gone by 2100?]
|
|-
| Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
| Each iteration of the Gillette line of safety razors has one more blade than the previous one. MadTV has also [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FAP8o5ZEo0 parodied] this. Over five years before MadTV did so, the Australian comedy group the D-Generation parodied the first two-bladed razor as the [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YleuLyCUx28 Gillette 3000] with 16 blades.
|
|-
| 2101
| WAR WAS BEGINNING
| References {{w|Zero Wing}}, a 1989 Japanese computer game set in 2101, famous for poorly translated English and the source for "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}". See [[286: All Your Base]]
|
|}
<references/>

==Transcript==

:<big>'''THE FUTURE'''</big>
:'''According to Google search results'''
:Events for each year determined by the first page of Google search results for the phrases:
:"By <year>" "In year"
:"By the year <year>" "In the year <year>"
:"Will * by the year <year>" "Will * in the year <year>"
:"In <year>, * will" "By <year>, * will"
:
:;2012
::World population reaches 7 billion
::Flying cars reach market
::Canada cuts greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels as per Kyoto
::Apocalypse occurs
:;2013
::National debt paid off through President Clinton's plans
::Microchipping of all Americans begins
::Homelessness ended in Massachusetts
::Health care reform law repealed
:;2014
::US leaves Afghanistan
::GNU/Linux becomes dominant OS
:;2015
::New Horizons reaches Pluto
::Health care law causes hyperinflation
::192 UN member nations achieve millennium development goals:
::*Extreme poverty and hunger eradicated
::*Universal primary education implemented
::*Women empowered, gender equality reached
::*Environmental stability ensured
:;2016
::Baby boomers begin turning 65
::Android takes 38% of the smartphone market
::Android takes 45% of the smartphone market
::Windows Phone overtakes iOS in smartphones
:;2017
::China completes unmanned Lunar sample-return mission
::Social Security stops running surplus
::US budget balanced
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
::Cosmetic surgery doubles
:;2018
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Jesus returns to Earth
:;2019
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Every baby has genes mapped at birth
:;2020
::Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
::Keyboards and mice become obsolete
::New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
:;2021
::US debt reaches 97% of GDP
::US unemployment falls to 2.8%
::Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
::Lake Mead evaporates
:;2022
::Kilimanjaro snow-free
::HTML 5 finished
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2023
::Jesus returns to Earth (again)
::US debt passes 100% of GDP
::All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
:;2024
::Atlantis begins to reappear
::Orangutans extinct in wild
::China lands men and women on the moon
::NASA sets up permanent moon base
::Female professionals pass males in pay
:;2025
::World population reaches 8 billion
::Two billion people face water shortages
::62 MPG cars introduced
::US power fades
:;2026
::Atlantis emerges completely
::Rock Bands die out
::US debt paid off
::Car accidents cease
::West coast falls into ocean
:;2027
::Japan introduces new fastest maglev train
::Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony established
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2028
::Tobacco outlawed
::40% of coral reefs gone
::US debt paid off
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2029
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
::Computers pass the Turing Test
::Aging reversed
::Wikipedia reaches 30 million articles
:;2030
::Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
::Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
::Arctic ice-free in summer
:;2031
::Computers controlled by thought
::Realtors replaced by technology
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2032
::"Big One" hits San Francisco
::US elects first married lesbian president
::Entire world converted to Christianity
:;2033
::Kilimanjaro ice disappears
::India becomes superpower
::Europe reaches Mars
:;2034
::US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
::US builds autonomous robot army
:;2035
::80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
::Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
::Arctic sea lane opens
:;2036
::80% of US has access to high-speed rail
::Asteroid Apophis hits/misses Earth
:;2037
::Arctic ice-free in September
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2038
::32-bit timestamps role over, causing Y2K-level chaos
::"Big One" hits California
:;2039
::US population hits 400 million
::Severe heat waves become commonplace
::Scientology becomes majority religion in US
:;2040
::Arctic summers ice-free
::Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
:;2041
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2042
:;2043
::World population passes 9 billion
:;2044
::Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
::Childhood obesity reaches 100%
:;2045
::Humans and machines merge
:;2046
::World's natural resources depleted
:;2047
::World ruled by banks and corporations
::Tobacco industry fails
::US begins using autonomous attack drones
:;2048
::Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
::Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
::Entire US population overweight
:;2049
::$1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
::Singularity occurs
::Fishing industry collapses
:;2050
::80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
::China controls space
::Sex with robots possible
::Cars banned from European cities
::One million species extinct from climate change
:;2051
::Atmosphere escapes into space
:;2052
::Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
:;2053
::US budget balanced
::Majority of Americans in prison
::Cars driven by dogs
:;2054
::Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
:;2055
::Atmospheric CO2 doubled
::Oil runs out
::Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
:;2056
::RFID-tagged driverless cars
::Robots given same rights as humans
:;2057
::150 Japanese settlers on Mars
::Colorado River runs dry
:;2058
::Smoking ends in New Zealand
:;2059
::Humans have domesticated robots
:;2060
::Human race lives in peace
::Extreme droughts across much of Earth
::Global temperature rise reaches 4°C
::Oil runs out again
:;2061
::Halley's comet returns
:;2062
::Uganda hosts World Cup
::The Jetsons
:;2063
::First human clones reach adulthood
::Population of Moon reaches 100,000
::Population of Mars reaches 10,000
::Spacecraft exceed speed of light
:;2064
::Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
:;2065
::Last coral reefs die out
::Chernobyl cleanup complete
:;2066
::Cyprus achieves its goal
:;2067
::Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
::Redheads go extinct
:;2068
::Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
::Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
::Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
:;2069
::Public masturbation legalized
:;2070
::World population peaks
::City-scale flooding disasters
::60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
:;2071
::Europe's temperatures rise by 3°C
::World summer temperatures rise by 5°C
:;2072
::US retirement age is set to 75
:;2073
::Oceans do not rise one foot
:;2074
::Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
::Supertyphoons hit Japan
:;2075
::US retirement age set to 69
:;2076
::Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2077
:;2078
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2079
::US debt reaches 716% of GDP
::Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
::Floods commonplace
::Religion marginalized
:;2080
::Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
::UK population doubles
:;2081
:;2082
::World population declines to one billion
:;2083
:;2084
::Robot policemen introduced
:;2085
::US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
:;2086
:;2087
:;2088
::Japan becomes all-robot country
:;2089
::World halts fossil fuel use
:;2090
::Global warming hits 7°C
::Global warming hits 4°C
:;2091
:;2092
:;2093
:;2094
:;2095
:;2096
:;2097
:;2098
:;2099
:;2100
::Global warming around 5-7°C
::Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
::Joshua trees nearly extinct
::Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
::Germany tropical
::Emperor penguins extinct
::Arctic permafrost thaws
::Rising seas flood coastal cities
::Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
::All coral reefs gone
::Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
:;2101
::WAR WAS BEGINNING

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Large drawings]]
[[Category:Timelines]]
[[Category:Google Search]]
[[Category:Climate change]]
[[Category:Singularity]]
[[Category:Renewable energy]]
[[Category:Smartphones]]
[[Category:Wikipedia]]

Talk:1638: Backslashes

2024-06-23T10:30:19Z

Regex user:

It should be noted that this also occurs in almost every programming language where "\" is the escape character. i.e.
print("Hello")
> Hello
print("\"Hello\"")
> "Hello"
print("\\Hello\\")
> \Hello\
Oh, and by the way, isn't this the third comic to mention "Ba'al, the Soul Eater"? Maybe we should start a category. (Others are [http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1246:_Pale_Blue_Dot 1246] (title text) and [http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1419:_On_the_Phone 1419].)
[[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.29|173.245.54.29]] 06:14, 3 February 2016 (UTC)
:Did that before seeing you comment, so yes I agree. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 09:47, 3 February 2016 (UTC)
::But Davidy did not so the category has been deleted again. I have just cleaned up after my mess ;-) so there are no left over links to the dead category... --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 22:27, 8 February 2016 (UTC)
:::I noticed theres no character for Ba'al the soul eater on the character page. Is it just me or does someone else think that Ba'al should have a spot given that he(she??they??it??) has been in more comics than a lot of the minor characters? Just a thought. --[[User:Apollo11|Apollo11]] ([[User talk:Apollo11|talk]]) 10:42, 11 March 2024 (CST)

The last entry may also be an oblique reference to the infinitely-expandable recursive acronym "GOD = GOD Over Djinn" mentioned in Richard Hofstadter's Gödel, Escher, Bach.[[User:Taibhse|Taibhse]] ([[User talk:Taibhse|talk]]) 16:42, 3 February 2016 (UTC)

;I don't think the regex is invalid
''Note: The regex changed after initial publication. See '''Changed Regex''' below''

According to <tt>man grep</tt> you need to specify the <tt>-E</tt> option to use extended regex; without it unescaped parentheses are not interpreted, so they don't need to match.

My - very wild - guess is that it was the command he used to find the line with the most special characters, but I am not confident enough to edit the article (if someone can confirm?). {{unsigned ip|141.101.66.83}}

If it was supposed to do that, it doesn't work. Running it on my bash history matches no lines, and I have lots of special characters in there [[Special:Contributions/197.234.242.243|197.234.242.243]] 07:12, 3 February 2016 (UTC)

Explain it to me like I'm dumb. What is this comic going on about? I think the explanation needs more examples like that hello, above, because that's almost understandable. --[[Special:Contributions/198.41.238.231|198.41.238.231]] 07:47, 3 February 2016 (UTC)
:I agree. But I cannot help either.--[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 09:51, 3 February 2016 (UTC)

This is the third time Randall has mentioned Ba'al the Soul Eater xD [[User:International Space Station|International Space Station]] ([[User talk:International Space Station|talk]]) 08:26, 3 February 2016 (UTC)
:Yes, that was already mentioned a few hours before you comment, see the first comment. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 09:51, 3 February 2016 (UTC)

After passing the regex through bash, you get <nowiki>\\[[(].*\\[\])][^)\]]*$</nowiki> That is, the literal character \, followed by [ or (, followed by any number of any characters, followed by \, followed by ] or ), followed by any number of characters that aren't ) or ], until the end of the line. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.44|108.162.216.44]] 08:33, 3 February 2016 (UTC)
:It sounds like you know what you are talking about. Anyone who can explain it good enough for the explanation, and correct the explanation of the title text if it is wrong to say that it would not work. I have added this as the reason for incomplete. But maybe also examples are needed for people with not programming skills/knowledge. We also enjoy xkcd ;-) --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 09:51, 3 February 2016 (UTC)
:I'm thinking that it's grepping for regular expressions that contain regular expressions. A regex containing <nowiki>"\[...\]"</nowiki> or <nowiki>"$...$"</nowiki> will match other regular expressions, as almost all non-trivial regexes use either character lists or groups. Now why out.txt is likely to contain not just regexes but rather regexes that search for regexes I have no idea - perhaps he had actually put too many backslashes in and he was trying to grep just for <nowiki>"[...]"</nowiki> or <nowiki>"(...)"</nowiki> (i.e. to locate probable regular expressions in out.txt, or anything else in parenthesis for that matter such as countless kinds of code/markup)? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.152.185|162.158.152.185]] 17:35, 4 February 2016 (UTC)

For fun:
cat ~/.bash_history | xargs -d "\n" -n 1 -I {} bash -c 'chars="$(echo "$1" | grep -o "[a-zA-Z0-9 ]" | wc -l)"; echo "$(( 100 - $(( $chars * 100 / ${#1} )) )) $1"' _ {} | sort -nrk 1 | less

Outputs your bash_history, ordered by relative gibberishness. This was copied by hand from desktop to mobile, might well have a few typos.--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.90.208|162.158.90.208]] 10:04, 3 February 2016 (UTC)
::Besides the fact that -d is a GNU extension to xargs (so it won't exist on OS X, FreeBSD, or anything else but Linux), this is a weird way to calculate gibberishness; I'm guessing functions, variable substitutions, .. and ./, etc. are going to swamp the more unreadable grep and the like. Plus, I think you need a uniq in there somewhere; otherwise, aren't the first few pages are all going to be filled with the 78 copies of "422 cd .." that tied for most gibberishy in my last 500 commands? --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.82|162.158.255.82]] 22:51, 7 March 2016 (UTC)
:::I know it's been almost a decade, but I wanted to provide a more portable solution. Here's a posixly correct way to do that: <code>sed 'h;:b;s/./-/g;:a;s/-/<<123456789-01>/;s/$.$<.*\1$-*.$.*>/\2/;/^$/s/^/0/;ta;x;H;/\n/!s/[a-zA-Z0-9 ]*//g;tb;x;s/\n/ /g;s/0 0/0 1/' ~/.bash_history | awk '{$1=$1/$2;$2="";print $0}' | sort -rn | less</code>. However, if you do have GNU sed, I think this is nicer: <code>sed -E 'h;:b;s/./-/g;:a;s/-/<<123456789-01>/;s/(.)<.*\1(-*.).*>/\2/;/^$/s/^/0/;ta;x;H;/\n/!s/[a-zA-Z0-9 ]*//g;tb;x;s/^/dc -e"Fk/;s%\n%/n";#%2e;G;s/\n.*\n/ /;s/\.(..)([^ ]*)/\1.\2%/' ~/.bash_history | sort -rn | less</code> if your 'most gibberishy commands' are '<code>cd ..</code>' then you're obviously not having enough fun on the command line. For example, a short and sweet one I found which I'd encourage everyone to try is <code>PS1='C:${PWD////\\\\}>'</code> [[User:Regex user|Regex user]] ([[User talk:Regex user|talk]]) 10:30, 23 June 2024 (UTC)

The problem in the comic is not with regexes per se but with situations when the entered text or expression passes through several interpreters, like bash -> grep/sed/awk, or program text -> external shell command. In such cases, you have to escape backslashes for each program in the sequence, and it gets worse if you have 'real' backslashes in the final text that you're processing with the utilities (Windows' file paths, for example). See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaning_toothpick_syndrome.
Feel free to lift this to the explanation page, since I'm not good at longer and more careful explanations than this one.
Also, gotta notice that Feedly stripped paired backslashes in the title text (probably passed it through some 'interpreter' embedded in its scripts). [[User:Aasasd|Aasasd]] ([[User talk:Aasasd|talk]]) 10:13, 3 February 2016 (UTC)

:A funny comment about the MediaWiki software, which is even worse than this comic: <code><nowiki><Nikerabbit> I looked the code for rlike and didn't find where it does this. Can you point me to it? <vvv> $pattern = preg_replace( '!(\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\)*(\\\\\\\\)?/!', '$1\\/', $pattern ); <Nikerabbit> I thought that was ascii art :)</nowiki></code> ([https://phabricator.wikimedia.org/P110$275 source]) --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.215|162.158.91.215]] 10:18, 3 February 2016 (UTC)

Interestingly, I first looked at this on my phone (using <strike>Chrome</strike> Feedly for Android), but the title text did not display correctly in that the backslashes didn't appear (which was a little confusing!). In Chrome on my Windows desktop, the title text appeared correctly. [[User:Jdluk|Jdluk]] ([[User talk:Jdluk|talk]]) 11:36, 3 February 2016 (UTC)

enough with the harry potter fancruft. "elder" is a [[Wiktionary:elder|perfectly good word]]. just because you came across it for the first time in harry potter means you are *typing carefully* the kind of person that likes harry potter. unless this is a ''harry potter reference'' wiki, of course. in which case i'll prepare a complete list of every word that appears both here and there and put a list on every page. oh, right, no i won't. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.106.161|141.101.106.161]] 12:41, 3 February 2016 (UTC)

Remember that "Elder" is used in a lot of RPGs to denote high level enemies or items. I feel like that's what Randall's referring to here, more than Harry Potter or the general sense of the term "Elder." {{unsigned ip|108.162.245.156}}
: +1. Between the fact that harry potter (, ages, or tribes) aren't mentioned anywhere else in the text and the comic being a progressive list, I see this being the most likely explanation. Plus the metion of demons, which are easily the most* common usage of the modifier.
:: (*) or second most, after "elder gods", who are, let's face it, also demons. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.180.125|162.158.180.125]] 14:41, 3 February 2016 (UTC)
::: I'm pretty sure that "Elder backslash" is in reference to the "Elder gods" of Lovecraft. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.35|173.245.54.35]] 16:51, 3 February 2016 (UTC)
:::: Note also that it's called 'The Elder Wand' not as an intensifier, as in this comic and the other examples given, but because it is literally ''made from the wood of an [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sambucus_nigra Elder Tree]'' I'm pretty sure it's not an intentional reference. -Graptor [[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.23|173.245.54.23]] 19:29, 3 February 2016 (UTC)
::::: If it's an intentional reference to anything, it's to Lovecraft (or to something similar). I suspect the Elder Wand was an intentional pun by Rowling, however. --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.180.137|162.158.180.137]] 04:16, 4 February 2016 (UTC)
::::: Since no-one else seemed to want to, I just restructured that paragraph to make it more clear that if anything Harry Potter was inspired by the older examples, not the other way around. Expanded the LOTR reference and added DnD. If anything Randall is likely to be referencing either the Lovecraft references, or the concept of Elder in general. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.64.173|141.101.64.173]] 11:50, 4 February 2016 (UTC)

Attempting to add to the discussion: This regex is not necessarily invalid or incomprehensible. (''Note: The regex changed after initial publication. See '''Changed Regex''' below.'') It looks like he was looking for a line with a regular expression or definitely some code. You just have to work your way through the backslashes. Although it might be invalid depending on the precise rules. He has some unescaped closing brackets and closing parenthesis. If these have to always be escaped then the regex is invalid. If however you don't have to escape a closing bracket with no opening bracket, then things are fine. I'm not familiar enough with grep's regex parser to know how it handles that edge case. Presuming those unescaped paren and brackets are fine, his regex searches for:

1. A backslash

2. An opening bracket

3. An opening parenthesis (this is a character set but the only character in it is an opening paren)

4. Any number of any characters

5. A backslash

6. An opening bracket

7. A closing bracket

8. A closing paren (presuming it doesn't have to be escaped when there is no opening paren)

9. A closing bracket (presuming it doesn't have to be escaped when there is no opening bracket)

10. Any number of character that are not a closing paren or closing bracket

11. The end of the line

Basically he is looking for a string that looks like:

\[(AAAAA\[])]AAAAA

Looks like a regex to me, and it looks like this regex also doesn't escape closing paren/brackets that don't have an opening paren/bracket, so I'm guessing that he knows what he is doing and his regex is fine. Maybe he was playing regex golf?
[[User:Cmancone|Cmancone]] ([[User talk:Cmancone|talk]])cmancone

Ninjaed by Cmancone, above. I agree with that result in every respect except for the start-of-string being potentially anything, but putting my own analysis in here because it took long enough to type!

Depth-of-backslash might depend upon depth of utility. In Perl, <nowiki>''</nowiki>-quotes (among others) treat everything within as literal whilst ""-quotes (and variations) interpolates any special characters, variables, etc that you put in it. (Search for "Quote and Quote-like operators" in your favourite PerlDocs source.) '\sss' is a literal backslash followed by three 's' characters , while "\sss" is the special \s escape (a whitespace) followed by two further regular characters. You might need to define the first when you need to use it to provide a not-previously-escaped \s so that it might be escaped within another context. ''Or'' you define it as "\\sss" (escaped-\) the first time, as equivalent to '\sss'. But '\\sss' would be a literal that, later, could be interpreted as an escaped-\ to the input of a further context where the \s finally becomes 'match a whitespace'.

'\\\sss' would be literal, whilst "\\\sss" could be equivalent to '\ ss' (literal backslash, literal space, rest of characters). Then, instead of literal '\\sss', for some purpose, you could interpolate two escaped-backslashes "\\\\sss"... and so on.

Meanwhile I ''think'', just from visual inspection, "'''\\\[[(].*\\\[\])][^)\]]*$'''" in Bash should obey the interpolation rules quite nicely. The first two characters must be a literal backslash (from the escaped-backslash) and a literal open-square bracket (again, escaped). The next open-square and the close-square shortly after depict a character class that contains only an open-parenthesis, and could have been written as '''$'''.

The '''.*''' indicates zero-or-more (the asterix) instances of ''any'' character (the dot). There is then a literal backslash (from the next '''\\''' duo) and a literal open-square (the '''\[''' pair) and close-square (the '''\]''' pair). The ''')''' is literal and does not need escaping (as a parenthesis group had not yet been opened), as is the next ''']''' character. To be sure, I would have written these two as the pair escapes '''$\]''', but horses for courses...

Then there's another character class (the next '''[''' and the final ''']''') required zero-or-more times (the asterix) to use up all the rest of the characters to the end (the ending '''$''' character). As there was no '''^''' character (a.k.a. caret/circumflex/etc) at the start, the match isn't bothered about what unmatched characters appear before the original '''\('''. This character class, however, starts with a '''^''' which in this context (the very first character of a character-class definition, not somewhere where an entire match-string starts) indicates negation of the following selection, so it is all characters ''but'' those specified, which is the regular close-parenthesis and (because it needs to be contained within a '''[]''' pair) the escaped close-square.

So, all matching strings must start with '''\[(''', i.e. the backslash, open-square and open-paren. They can continue with ''any'' further text, before then having a '''\[])]''', i.e. backslash, open-and-close-squares and close-paren, close-square. After this, the match continues just as long as there are no non-closing square/classic brackets before the ending.

The minimum matching literal string would be '''\[(\[])]''' with longer variants being of the form '''X\[(Y\[])]Z''' where X and Y can be replaced by anything (or be absent), and Z can be replaced by anything (or absent!) ''so long as it doesn't contain possibly relevent close-brackets!''. The latter stipulation is likely because the Y (and X) ''is'' allowed to contain these characters, and for some reason you don't want to confuse the test by finding some other '''\[])]''' segment within the X/Y-zones. (In this context, it doesn't actually seem to matter too much. But it might do in ways I haven't spotted or just be a hang-over from a prior permutation of the test.)

The "grep -o" function is working on the output to the file being '''cat'''ed (there are alternate ways of doing this that some people might prefer), to only accept the lines in the file that match the '''X\[(Y\[])]Z''' string. These lines would appear to be lines of out.txt (a fairly generic name that reveals little to its original purpose) that are well-formed for some other purpose. A safety-escaped (i.e. not to be taken literally by any simple parser) '''[]'''-grouping containing a '''()'''-group (''not'' escaped, perhaps reasonably in context) containing potentially random text followed by an empty '''[]''' pair (again, safety-escaped). Depending on the source, the empty '''[]'''-pair could mean many things, as with the other layers. And the lines may end with any further text.

The "out.txt" file might be the result of a prior Grep (string-search function) quote possibly scanning code for lines of particular importance by another pattern and dumping the results to out.txt for further perusal. And then Randall finds the need to dig further into the first result by extracting just those already selected that all have the '''X\[(Y\[])Z]'''-ish pattern to them.

But I could be wrong, and that's way too long for an official explanation.
(Perhaps just something like the penultimate paragraph, if we're not entirely mistaken?) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.152.89|162.158.152.89]] 14:14, 3 February 2016 (UTC)

The regex is supposed to be looking for (''Note: The regex changed after initial publication. See '''Changed Regex''' below.''):
\\\ backslash
[[(] [ or (
.* any character (repeated 0 or more times)
space space
\\\ backslash
[[\])] probably meant to match either [, ] or ). However, it's not correct, it instead matches the literal characters [)]
[^)\]]* probably meant to match any character that isn't ) or ], repeated. Instead it means one character that's not a ), and then a ] zero or more times
$ end of string

The first problem is that you're not supposed to escape ] in a [...], and it also has to be first in the grouping (unless negated with a ^) It should be [][)] or something similar.

The second problem is the same. The last bit should be [^])]*$ and not [^)\]]*$. [[User:Khris|Khris]] ([[User talk:Khris|talk]]) 14:24, 3 February 2016 (UTC)

I was reading through the regex, if using grep you run into an error with an unmatched ")". Removing this gets a string such as \[(AAAAA\[]]AAAAA$ http://regexr.com/3cng8 [[Special:Contributions/162.158.214.230|162.158.214.230]] 14:42, 3 February 2016 (UTC)

The regex relies on several special cases (*surprise*). (''Note: The regex changed after initial publication. See '''Changed Regex''' below.'')
First: bash double-quote expansion (see [https://www.gnu.org/software/bash/manual/html_node/Double-Quotes.html#Double-Quotes]). Perhaps non-intuitively, \\\ followed by a character that \ doesn't escape is an escaped backslash followed by a literal backslash, effectively the same as \\\\ followed by that same non-escaped character. After bash double-quote expansion, this results in:

\\[[(].*\\[\])][^)\]]*$

grep interprets this as:

# any leading non-\ characters
# literal backslash
# character class containing [ and (
# zero or more *any* characters
# another literal backslash
# yet another literal backslash, via a character class containing only a backslash. Note this does not contain an escaped ], as it might appear at first glance. See [http://www.gnu.org/software/grep/manual/html_node/Character-Classes-and-Bracket-Expressions.html]
# literal )
# literal ]
# character class of anything except ), \
# zero or more ]
# end of line

Matching examples:
*echo 'asdf\[asdfasdf\\)]a]]]]]]' | grep -o "\\\[[(].*\\\[\])][^)\]]*$"
*echo '$\$]P' | grep -o "\\\[[(].*\\\[\])][^)\]]*$"

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[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.34|108.162.216.34]] 16:14, 3 February 2016 (UTC)rb

One key thing to understand is that \ is not a special character when it's in a bracket expression - you can't escape characters in bracket expressions. So [^)\] simply means any character other then ) or \. Also, ( and ) are just regular characters unless they are escaped in basic regular expressions - extended regular expressions reverse this rule. {{unsigned|Kalfalfa}}

I don't know about the regular expression in the title text, but I think the explanation is incorrect in that it starts off talking about regular expressions. Escaping backslashes is an issue with strings in programming in general. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.46|173.245.54.46]] 17:12, 3 February 2016 (UTC)
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I suspect that Randall may have used the regexp in the title text to *find* malformed regular expressions in a file (out.txt) that he (or someone) had previously filled with output from some error message (or collection of error messages, or at least the output of something where a regular expression had been expected to work but had not worked as expected). [[Special:Contributions/162.158.252.227|162.158.252.227]] 19:06, 3 February 2016 (UTC)

You can use metacharacters in character classes, the only metacharacters in a character class that must be escaped are the closing square bracket (]), the backslash (\), the hyphen, and the carat and hyphen (^) if they are the first listed item in the set. The closing square bracket requires escaping because including it without would signal the end of the set otherwise, which then means the backslash must also be escaped. The hyphen must be escaped because, without it, it signals a range (unless it is listed first, then it is literal without escaping). Carat when listed first because otherwise it signals a negative set. 
Therefore, the end of the title text regex matches a backslash followed by either ] or ), which is then followed by any number (including none) of characters so long as they are not ] nor ) which means the whole regex can match "\[something\] more" or "$something$more" or "\[something\) more" as well as "\[something\]". — [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.117|162.158.255.117]] 01:16, 4 February 2016 (UTC)

I'll add that I use an ''almost identical'' regex in my mail server for matching mailing-list subject lines which often have a format of "[Listname] normal subject line" which made it pretty recognizable to me. — [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.117|162.158.255.117]] 01:24, 4 February 2016 (UTC)

;Example of a match
''Note: The regex changed after initial publication. See '''Changed Regex''' below''

First, the shell will do some escaping substitution. So, in order to easily read it, let's see what grep really receives:

$ echo "\\\[[(].*\\\[\])][^)\]]*$"
\\[[(].*\\[\])][^)\]]*$

Let's break it out:

* <code>\\</code> matches a <code>\</code>
* <code>[[(]</code> matches either a <code>[</code> or a <code>(</code>
* <code>.*</code> matches any series of characters until the next match
* <code>\\</code> matches a <code>\</code>
* <code>[\]</code> matches a <code>\</code>
* <code>)]</code> matches <code>)]</code>
* <code>[^)\]</code> matches anything but <code>)</code> or <code>\</code>
* <code>]*</code> matches any number of <code>]</code> (including none)
* <code>$</code> matches the end of the string

So the string '''\[aaa\]\\)]a]]]]]]''' matches! {{unsigned ip|108.162.228.167}}

...Maybe it's meant to search for all Game Grumps transcripts which make mention of the "[http://gamegrumps.wikia.com/wiki/Grep Grep]" gag? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.55|108.162.216.55]] 15:53, 3 February 2016 (UTC)

...Wow, guys, and here I was thinking he wanted to put the cat out, when the cat didn't want to go out.... [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.158|108.162.249.158]] 04:03, 4 February 2016 (UTC)

What I think is that Randall probably ''intended'' the regex to match "backslash, opening round or square bracket, anything, backslash, closing round or square bracket, anything that doesn't involve closing round or square brackets", since (unlike most other possibilities given) that actually looks like something one might want to search for. Whether it ''does'', in fact, match that or something else (or indeed anything at all) is another question entirely. (For all we know, it didn't work, Randall figured out it didn't, and wrote the correct thing the next line over.) Unrelatedly: this comic (and the backslash proliferation in general) reminded me of the Telnet Song. --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.180.137|162.158.180.137]] 04:16, 4 February 2016 (UTC)

That explanation is wrong: <code>[\]</code> does not match a literal backslash; it would still need to be escaped inside the brackets. That backslash escapes the next character, a ], so the group doesn't end there. The actual expression there is <code>[\])]</code>, a character group containing an escaped ] and a ). Just like the first part. It is most likely intended to catch content surrounded by [ ] or ( ). [[Special:Contributions/141.101.104.15|141.101.104.15]] 13:43, 4 February 2016 (UTC)
:To clarify: this makes the expression catch anything that starts with a block surrounded by escaped round or square brackets. So stuff like '''$Hello world$more text here''' but with either round or square brackets (or combinations, since there's nothing enforcing they have to match. I'd have made it an OR case with two groups with matching brackets, personally) -[[Special:Contributions/141.101.104.15|141.101.104.15]] 13:51, 4 February 2016 (UTC)
:You're making the same mistake Randall did: while many (most?) regex dialects use \ as escape inside a character class, this is not true for grep's default syntax. I've expanded that interpretation in my comment below, however the analysis by 108.162.228.167 is a correct explanation of how this expression is ''actually'' interpreted by grep. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.75.185|141.101.75.185]] 15:42, 4 February 2016 (UTC)

Your analysis is thorough and correct, however it is unlikely this is what the regex was intended to accomplish. (''Note: The regex changed after initial publication. See '''Changed Regex''' below.'') More likely, Randall is more accustomed to other regex dialects such as Perl(-compatible) regex where a backslash ''does'' work to escape special characters inside a character class. Under that assumption the regex (with some whitespace inserted for readability) would break up as:
* <code>\\ [[(]</code> an escaped opening bracket or paren
* <code>.*</code> anything
* <code>\\ [\])]</code> an escaped closing bracket or paren
* <code>[^)\]]* $</code> no closing bracket or paren occurring on the remainder of the line
Although the final condition is still a bit obscure, this still makes a ''lot'' more sense. Unfortunately it also crushes Randall's hope the regex worked as intended, since this simply isn't how the expression is parsed with grep's default syntax (which is why I always use <code>grep -P</code>). --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.75.185|141.101.75.185]] 15:34, 4 February 2016 (UTC)
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Did anyone notice the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cat_%28Unix%29#Useless_use_of_cat Useless Use of Cat]? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.106.101|141.101.106.101]] 19:36, 4 February 2016 (UTC)

:Yup - I hereby award Randall with the Useless Use of Cat Award of the day. Cherish it.
:[[User:Zedn00|Zedn00]] ([[User talk:Zedn00|talk]]) 03:51, 5 February 2016 (UTC) Zedn00
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;Changed Regex
At some point before 2016-02-09 18:00 +0100, Randall has modified the bash command in the title text!

Original command:
cat out.txt | grep -o "\\\[[(].*\\\[\])][^)\]]*$"
New command:
cat out.txt | grep -o "[[(].*[])][^)]]*$"

For the old command, 108.162.228.167's and 108.162.216.34's explanations above were correct.

The new command matches:
[[(] either a '[' or a '('
.* an unbounded and possibly empty sequence of arbitrary characters
[])] either a ']' or a ')'
[^)] any character except for a ')'
]* an unbounded and possibly empty sequence of ']'
$ anchored at end of line

It now e.g. matches '''123[abc.<>)x]]]]]''':
$ echo "123[abc.<>)x]]]]]" | tee /dev/stderr | grep -o "[[(].*[])][^)]]*$"

This makes hardly more sense than the original command.
--[[User:Markus|Markus]] ([[User talk:Markus|talk]]) 17:38, 9 February 2016 (UTC)
:Randal may have been sincere about finding it in his history and wondering if it worked. I think he probably meant
cat out.txt | grep -o "[[(].*[])][^])]*$"

:which breaks down as:
[[(] either a '[' or a '('
.* an unbounded and possibly empty sequence of arbitrary characters
[])] either a ']' or a ')'
[^])]* any number of any characters except for a ')' or ']'
$ anchored at end of line

:This matches any line that has a '[' or '(' followed by a ')' or ']', matching from the first '[' or '(' to the end of the line. The final part of the regex, '[^])]*$', is not really necessary here, but it is a common pattern to follow a character pattern with an opposite character pattern to be sure the first character pattern matches the last instance of a repeating character, so he might have added it out of habit, which would explain also why he got it wrong (since he just followed '[blah]' with '[^blah]' which in this special case doesn't work because 'blah' has a special character in it: ']').
:[[User:Jgro|Concerned Netizen]] ([[User talk:Jgro|talk]]) 02:23, 25 April 2017 (UTC)
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Funny enough, I'm literally looking at some other dev's code right now that actually implements an eight backslash regex sequence, with just the comment "backslash". I'm still scratching my head over what they were trying to accomplish or even communicate with this. [[User:Domino|Domino]] ([[User talk:Domino|talk]]) 21:45, 16 August 2016 (UTC)domino
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I believe the regex is a reference to xkcd 1313 (Regex Golf)
[[Special:Contributions/108.162.221.90|108.162.221.90]] 16:08, 26 August 2016 (UTC)
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I had to use a backslash that escaped the screen today. I have a Discord bot written with Node.js, and my "friends" demanded I add a shruggie output [despite Discord having that already]. So, I now have a string that looks like <code>'¯\\\\\\_(ツ)\_/¯'</code>.{{unsigned|Papayaman1000}}
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Regarding the change to the title text (with all backslashes being removed) it appears that this may not be a deliberate edit, as other comics (e.g. 1277) have also had all backslashes disappear from the title text. It appears that one of the tools Randall is using may be 'solving' accidentally escaped characters by doing a sed 's/\\//g' [[User:Sqek|Sqek]] ([[User talk:Sqek|talk]]) 13:18, 14 December 2017 (UTC)

<code>sed -r "s/^(.*)$/^\1$/" wordlist.txt</code> What was I cooking... There are also cursed grep commands for wordle such as <code>grep -iwE '[qwiafghjkzxvbn]{5}' wordlist.txt | grep -i '.[^ia][^n][^ai][^n]' | grep -i [ain] </code> [[User:Wilh3lm|Wilh3lm]] ([[User talk:Wilh3lm|talk]]) 14:19, 16 April 2024 (UTC)