explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

2002: LeBron James and Stephen Curry

2018-06-05T08:01:41Z

Skybreak: /* Pog Collection */

{{comic
| number = 2002
| date = June 4, 2018
| title = LeBron James and Stephen Curry
| image = lebron_james_and_stephen_curry.png
| titletext = The 538TR attempts to capture a player's combined skill at basketball (either real-life or NBA 2K18) and election forecasting.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a Basketball - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
At the time of this comic, the {{w|2018 NBA Finals}} were going on, between the {{w|Cleveland Cavaliers}} and the {{w|Golden State Warriors}} with the Warriors leading 2 games to 0 in a best of seven series. At first glance, the comic looks like an in-depth analysis of two of the star players on those teams, {{w|LeBron James}} and {{w|Stephen Curry}}. The joke is that while comprehensive, all the statistics are completely meaningless - many don't show any correlation, and if there is one, it's extremely unlikely there is any causal link in there.

The first graph includes a nine-digit {{w|Social Security number}} issued for US citizens which is typically not considered a metric related to athletic ability. As Social Security numbers are essentially random numbers ([https://www.ssa.gov/employer/randomization.html until 2011], there was a geographic correspondence for the first three digits), the graph shows only the {{w|free throw}} percentage of a large number of players, artificially spread vertically. Also note that Social Security numbers are not usually made public, barring security leaks.

The second graph is a graph of 2018 points per game vs teammate's APGAR score. {{w|APGAR score}} is used to quickly summarize the health of newborn children, with scores of 7 and above indicating an infant has generally normal health; its use to rank adult NBA players is odd, if not improper. This graph indicates LeBron's teammates have an APGAR score of approximately 2.1. Scores of 3 and below are generally regarded as critically low and possibly requiring medical attention. Low APGAR scores can also be associated with increased risk of neurological disorders such as cerebral palsy. The joke appears to be that LeBron is a star player carrying a sub average team while their opponents the Warriors are perhaps a more well rounded team.

The shot map shows from what position Curry's shots were scored compared to other NBA players. It shows that he scored several times from outside the playing field, including twice from the {{w|bleacher}}s (which isn't a legal play), and once from the {{w|locker room}} (which is physically impossible due to multiple walls in between). This may be a reference to Curry's "tunnel-shot", which he attempts before every home game.[https://www.sfchronicle.com/warriors/article/Stephen-Curry-s-long-tunnel-shot-has-become-10949145.php]

Next is a graph of (team) win percentage vs sandwiches eaten during play. This graph shows no correlation between these 2 metrics. It does indicate that the Golden State Warriors eat 4 sandwiches per game.

In the "2018 total points" table, the highlighted {{w|Golden State Warriors}} and {{w|Cleveland Cavaliers}} represent the teams of Stephen Curry and LeBron James respectively.

{{w|Magnetic north}} is the north pole of the {{w|Earth's magnetic field}}. Certain animals use the magnetic field to navigate and align themselves (including migratory birds, bees, and foxes), but there is no evidence that humans are affected by the earth's magnetic field. This means that there is very likely no correlation between orientation of a basketball court and points scored.

The table at the bottom includes more unrelated comparisons:

===Have You Heard of Him===
Although both players are well known in their native United States, elsewhere basketball is considered a minority sport. Of the 7 billion people in the world it is likely that less than 2% of the total population will have heard of either player. {{Citation needed}} According to Randall, LeBron James is a more well known player than Stephen Curry.

===President During Most Recent Game 7 Loss===
In the NBA, the top 16 teams qualify for a single elimination play-off to determine the season champion, with each series played as a {{w|Playoff_format#Best-of-seven_playoff|best-of-seven}} series (first to win 4 games). After the fourth game, fixtures are only played as required. Most fixtures are therefore resolved before the last game. Lebron James has participated in seven playoff game 7s in his career (winning 5 of 7), and the last time his team lost a game seven was on May 18, 2008 ({{w|George W. Bush}} was still President). This also highlights that James is an older athlete, yet has been fairly dominant through his career. Stephen Curry's last game 7 loss came at the hands of Lebron James in the {{w|2016 NBA Finals}} ({{w|Barack Obama}} was President). It is notable that both the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers won their respective games 7 in their Conference Finals to make it to this year's NBA Finals.

===Pog Collection===
{{w|Milk caps (game)|Pogs}} were a {{w|fad}} in the 1990s. It is unclear why James would have a "staggeringly large" collection of pogs, besides being 4 years older than Curry.
This might also refer to Player of the Game awards. Lebron James would certainly have a staggeringly large amount of them, while Curry has less, having to share player of the game accolades with his other All-Star teammates.

===Career Average Fed Interest Rate===
The Federal Interest Rate, or {{w|federal funds rate}}, is an interest rate set by the {{w|United States Federal Reserve}}. This rate is increased or decreased periodically based on the health of the U.S. economy. As of the time of publishing, the federal interest rate was targeted at 1.75%. The rate has fluctuated from a high of around 5% to a low of near 0% (during the time of the {{w|Great Recession in the United States|2008 recession}}). James' career average federal interest rate is higher than Curry's, because James began his career before Curry, when interest rates were higher.

===Name Scrabble Score===
Both "lebronjames" and "stephencurry" are worth 22 points in {{w|Scrabble}}.

===Best Sport===
It is claimed that their best sport is basketball. However, although they have chosen basketball as a career, this does not mean they were not better at a sport that does not offer a professional career.

===Height===
Both are listed as over 6 feet tall, which is not at all unusual for professional basketball players. Stephen Curry is listed as 6'3" and LeBron James as 6'8".

===Retirement Year===
In 2027, Stephen Curry will be 39 years old, which is a typical retirement age for NBA players. LeBron James's retirement age is listed as ''Unknown''. This may refer to James's high level of play through his mid-30s, when typical players have a decline in their performance. {{Citation needed}}

===FiveThirtyEight Total Rating===

{{w|Nate Silver}} is a political commentator and founder of the website {{w|FiveThirtyEight}}, which uses and promotes statistical approaches in explaining the world. The site's two major areas of focus are in politics (especially on elections - it became famous for correctly predicting for whom 49 of 50 of the 2008 and every US state would vote for in the 2012 US presidential elections, and though it wasn't as accurate in 2016 it had given Donald Trump a larger chance of Electoral College victory than other mainstream media sources) and sports (Silver first got into statistical analysis via baseball). The presence of both sports-related and politics-related topics in the comic, however related they are (or not) with each other, seems to be a nod towards FiveThirtyEight's content.

Nate Silver has a much higher 538TR than either Curry or James. As explained in the title text, the 538TR combines basketball skill (either real-life or video game basketball) with election forecasting. This would seem to imply that Silver is proficient at basketball, either the real-life kind, or the video game kind, and that James and Curry are not proficient in election forecasting.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:'''NBA Playoffs ''DataDive'' '''
:'''LeBron James and Stephen Curry'''
:'''What makes these superstars so extraordinary?'''

:[The comic consists of several plots and tables, listed here from top to bottom, left to right.]

:'''Scatter plot of Social Security number vs Free throw percentage'''
:The Social Security numbers range from 000-00-0000 to 999-99-9999. No pattern discernable, aside from points being a bit denser in the middle of the plot. Steven Curry is marked as a point on the right edge of the plot with a high free throw percentage.

:'''Scatter plot of 2018 points per game vs Average teammate APGAR score'''
:The APGAR scores range from 0 to 10. Pattern suggests a somewhat positive link between the two factors. LeBron James is marked as having a lot of points, but a low teammate APGAR score of approximately 2.1.

:'''Shot map'''
:Legend: grey dot for all players, black dot for Stephen Curry
:A diagram of a basketball court is shown with dots placed where players have taken shots at the goal. For the all players category the dots generally cluster next to the goal basket and in front of the three point line. Steven has 3 dots next to the basket (one is behind it), but does cluster next to the three point line. He also has several dots on the other side of the playing field, and outside it, including three in the bleachers and one in the locker room.

:'''Sandwiches eaten during play vs Win %'''
:A plot that suggests no relation between the factors because practically all dots are in the zero sandwiches column. 2018 Warriors have one dot at around 60 win percentage and 4 sandwiches.

:'''2018 total points'''
:A table listing teams and their points overall and "When net is within 15° of magnetic north". The rows for the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers are highlighted, the latter shows an abnormally high score in the magnetic north column.

:{| class = "wikitable"
! 2018 total points
! Overall
! When net is within 15° of magnetic north
|-
|'''Golden State Warriors'''
|'''9304'''
|'''330'''
|-
|Houston Rockets
|9213
|268
|-
|New Orleans Pelicans
|9161
|219
|-
|Toronto Raptors
|9156
|341
|-
|'''Cleveland Cavaliers'''
|'''9091'''
|'''1644'''
|-
|Denver Nuggets
|9020
|280
|}

:[A table at the bottom:]

:{| class = "wikitable"
!
! Stephen Curry
! LeBron James
|-
|Have you heard of him
|Probably
|Yes
|-
|President during most recent game 7 loss
|Obama
|Bush
|-
|Pog collection
|Large
|Staggeringly large
|-
|Career average Fed interest rate
|3.42%
|4.41%
|-
|Name Scrabble score
|22
|22
|-
|Best sport
|Basketball
|Basketball
|-
|Height
|Over 6'
|Over 6'
|-
|Retirement year
|2027
|Unknown
!Nate Silver
|-
|FiveThirtyEight total rating<br>(devised by Nate Silver to combine all metrics into a single stat)
|'''37.4'''
|'''31.8'''
|'''86.6'''
|}

==Trivia==
This comic was posted the day after the second game in the 2018 NBA Finals between the Golden State Warriors (Stephen Curry's team) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (LeBron James' team). It is the fourth consecutive time the two teams faced each other at the finals, which is unprecedented in major sports leagues in North America. The Warriors won in 2015 and 2017, the Cavaliers won in 2016, and the Warriors are leading the current series 2-0.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Sport]]
[[Category:Basketball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Nate Silver]]
[[Category:Politics]]

Talk:2002: LeBron James and Stephen Curry

2018-06-05T07:59:17Z

Skybreak: /* On the pog collection */

I have no idea what this is about, but wondered if Stephen Curry was related to the Curry twins Tom and Ben, who are both over 6' - or to Tim, who isn't except in heels.
[[User:Arachrah|Arachrah]] ([[User talk:Arachrah|talk]]) 07:53, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
: Both LeBron James and Stephen Curry are famous NBA players. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.190.4|172.69.190.4]] 08:46, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
::How would you not know that? And even if you don't know who they are, you must have at least heard about them before, right? [[User:Herobrine|Herobrine]] ([[User talk:Herobrine|talk]]) 09:21, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
::: Not everyone is from USA. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.190.4|172.69.190.4]] 09:41, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
:::: That excuse could work, except your IP address is based in the USA :) [[User:Zachweix|Zachweix]] ([[User talk:Zachweix|talk]]) 12:01, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
::::: So is mine right now, but that doesn't mean I'm '''from''' here, and they didn't make us memorise every NBA player on the plane. (Hey cool, this IP has edited here before too) -[[Special:Contributions/162.158.186.60|162.158.186.60]] 15:36, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

::: I like Curry. You know, the dish. And the actor. Tim, that is. [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 11:58, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
Not everyone in the USA follows sports. I've heard of LeBron James, but only in passing. The only Curry I know of is a fictional one from some old movie. {{unsigned ip|162.158.74.147}}
;Nate Silver

Nate Silver is famous for his numerical approach and extensive use of statistics and simulations.
He foresaw a probability of 28.6% for Donald to win the electoral college just before the election. That is a greater chance than most political commentators would have granted Donald. Typical betting sites saw Hillary 5:1 ahead at the evening of the election.
So I would not at all say that he got everything wrong in 2016. He predicted that Hillary would be a formidable number of votes ahead as most probable outcome, but also that many states would be very tight.
[[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/]]. Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.110.106|172.68.110.106]] 09:21, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

;Definitions needed
Hi! Could definitions be added for some of the terms used, such as "bleachers"? Thanks! [[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.200|162.158.155.200]] 11:30, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

;Magnetic North
I would have liked the "magnetic north" thing to be due to the geographical orientation of the teams home courts (if the Cavaliers are the only team to have a court that happens to be roughly north-south oriented, it would explain the higher points value). Looking at the Stupid Name Arena, however, it appears that the court inside is probably about NW-SE. Too bad. [[User:Chrullrich|Chrullrich]] ([[User talk:Chrullrich|talk]]) 14:15, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

I was thinking that might be a reference to the Cleveland Cavaliers playing their home games at a slightly high latitude than the (San Fransico-based) Golden State Warriors. (However, they are nearly at the same latitude, and neither is anywhere near 75 degrees North) [[User:JamesCurran|JamesCurran]] ([[User talk:JamesCurran|talk]]) 19:24, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

;SSN to Free Throw%
Would it be too much of a stretch to add in the fact that Stephen Curry's point is highlighted on the chart, as a nod to the fact that (the majority of) one's SSN can actually be determined if one knows details about personal information such as where one was born? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.130|108.162.219.130]] 16:08, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
:Not anymore. My three kids were all born in the same hospital -- same wing; rooms only meters apart -- but have TOTALLY different SSN's. (No, I'm not sharing them as proof!) We even asked the local SS office what happened and they said they're starting to reuse numbers at random. I think it's not "reuse" as much as "reallocate", but either way the strict geographical basis is no longer valid. --'''BigMal''' // [[Special:Contributions/172.69.70.209|172.69.70.209]] 16:31, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
:Originally, the first three digits indicated the office where the person requested an SSN. It didn't really signify anything. It was just that each office was given on a block of numbers to assign, and that block all started with the same three digits. Since in the early days of Social Security, a person got theirs, not at birth, but when they first got a job, it was more of an indication of where they happened to be living then, rather than where they were born. By the 60s, SSN assignment had been centralized, but they still tried to maintain the regional number, based on the zip code of the person requesting an SSN. Apparently, they have more recently realized that's just a waste of time and just started issuing them sequentially. [[User:JamesCurran|JamesCurran]] ([[User talk:JamesCurran|talk]]) 19:17, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
::New method started in 2011, so until around 2029 we'll be able to use the "SSN to FT% in NBA" metric, and have it tie to location at time of SSN generation.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.165|162.158.74.165]] 21:37, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

Does anyone know what the "sandwiches" graph is a reference to? I don't believe I have heard anything about the Warriors and a love for sandwiches. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.46.101|172.68.46.101]] 17:03, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
:Maybe this? [[https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2015/04/10/warriors-stephen-curry-45-point-game-sandwich]] [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.39|162.158.62.39]] 17:23, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

;More on SSN to Free Throw%
I did a quick digitization of the SSN /FT% graph, and the Steph Curry point is at about FT% = 92.5% and SSN ~ 300-XX-XXXX, which corresponds to his 2018 ft% of 92.1% (from wikipedia) and his birthplace of Ohio having a SSN in the range of 268-302 https://www.ssofficelocation.com/social-security-number-prefix . Even if SSN prefixes are random now, they probably weren't when he was born 30 years ago, so it is probably safe to conclude that the location of the point is deliberate. [[User:Acflip|Acflip]] ([[User talk:Acflip|talk]]) 19:01, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
:They changed in 2011 to random generation. I doubt there's any 7 year old NBA players, so until 2029 we'll be able to use this -ahem- metric.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.165|162.158.74.165]] 21:34, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

== On the pog collection ==

Is it possible that the "pog collection" also refers to the player's collection of Player of the Game awards? Lebron James would surely have a staggering amount of it, and Steph Curry would have considerably less, since Steph Curry has a lot of other good teammates.
[[User:Skybreak|Skybreak]] ([[User talk:Skybreak|talk]]) 07:58, 5 June 2018 (UTC)Skybreak

Talk:2002: LeBron James and Stephen Curry

2018-06-05T07:58:26Z

Skybreak: /* On the pog collection */ new section

I have no idea what this is about, but wondered if Stephen Curry was related to the Curry twins Tom and Ben, who are both over 6' - or to Tim, who isn't except in heels.
[[User:Arachrah|Arachrah]] ([[User talk:Arachrah|talk]]) 07:53, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
: Both LeBron James and Stephen Curry are famous NBA players. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.190.4|172.69.190.4]] 08:46, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
::How would you not know that? And even if you don't know who they are, you must have at least heard about them before, right? [[User:Herobrine|Herobrine]] ([[User talk:Herobrine|talk]]) 09:21, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
::: Not everyone is from USA. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.190.4|172.69.190.4]] 09:41, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
:::: That excuse could work, except your IP address is based in the USA :) [[User:Zachweix|Zachweix]] ([[User talk:Zachweix|talk]]) 12:01, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
::::: So is mine right now, but that doesn't mean I'm '''from''' here, and they didn't make us memorise every NBA player on the plane. (Hey cool, this IP has edited here before too) -[[Special:Contributions/162.158.186.60|162.158.186.60]] 15:36, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

::: I like Curry. You know, the dish. And the actor. Tim, that is. [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 11:58, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
Not everyone in the USA follows sports. I've heard of LeBron James, but only in passing. The only Curry I know of is a fictional one from some old movie. {{unsigned ip|162.158.74.147}}
;Nate Silver

Nate Silver is famous for his numerical approach and extensive use of statistics and simulations.
He foresaw a probability of 28.6% for Donald to win the electoral college just before the election. That is a greater chance than most political commentators would have granted Donald. Typical betting sites saw Hillary 5:1 ahead at the evening of the election.
So I would not at all say that he got everything wrong in 2016. He predicted that Hillary would be a formidable number of votes ahead as most probable outcome, but also that many states would be very tight.
[[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/]]. Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.110.106|172.68.110.106]] 09:21, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

;Definitions needed
Hi! Could definitions be added for some of the terms used, such as "bleachers"? Thanks! [[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.200|162.158.155.200]] 11:30, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

;Magnetic North
I would have liked the "magnetic north" thing to be due to the geographical orientation of the teams home courts (if the Cavaliers are the only team to have a court that happens to be roughly north-south oriented, it would explain the higher points value). Looking at the Stupid Name Arena, however, it appears that the court inside is probably about NW-SE. Too bad. [[User:Chrullrich|Chrullrich]] ([[User talk:Chrullrich|talk]]) 14:15, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

I was thinking that might be a reference to the Cleveland Cavaliers playing their home games at a slightly high latitude than the (San Fransico-based) Golden State Warriors. (However, they are nearly at the same latitude, and neither is anywhere near 75 degrees North) [[User:JamesCurran|JamesCurran]] ([[User talk:JamesCurran|talk]]) 19:24, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

;SSN to Free Throw%
Would it be too much of a stretch to add in the fact that Stephen Curry's point is highlighted on the chart, as a nod to the fact that (the majority of) one's SSN can actually be determined if one knows details about personal information such as where one was born? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.130|108.162.219.130]] 16:08, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
:Not anymore. My three kids were all born in the same hospital -- same wing; rooms only meters apart -- but have TOTALLY different SSN's. (No, I'm not sharing them as proof!) We even asked the local SS office what happened and they said they're starting to reuse numbers at random. I think it's not "reuse" as much as "reallocate", but either way the strict geographical basis is no longer valid. --'''BigMal''' // [[Special:Contributions/172.69.70.209|172.69.70.209]] 16:31, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
:Originally, the first three digits indicated the office where the person requested an SSN. It didn't really signify anything. It was just that each office was given on a block of numbers to assign, and that block all started with the same three digits. Since in the early days of Social Security, a person got theirs, not at birth, but when they first got a job, it was more of an indication of where they happened to be living then, rather than where they were born. By the 60s, SSN assignment had been centralized, but they still tried to maintain the regional number, based on the zip code of the person requesting an SSN. Apparently, they have more recently realized that's just a waste of time and just started issuing them sequentially. [[User:JamesCurran|JamesCurran]] ([[User talk:JamesCurran|talk]]) 19:17, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
::New method started in 2011, so until around 2029 we'll be able to use the "SSN to FT% in NBA" metric, and have it tie to location at time of SSN generation.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.165|162.158.74.165]] 21:37, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

Does anyone know what the "sandwiches" graph is a reference to? I don't believe I have heard anything about the Warriors and a love for sandwiches. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.46.101|172.68.46.101]] 17:03, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
:Maybe this? [[https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2015/04/10/warriors-stephen-curry-45-point-game-sandwich]] [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.39|162.158.62.39]] 17:23, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

;More on SSN to Free Throw%
I did a quick digitization of the SSN /FT% graph, and the Steph Curry point is at about FT% = 92.5% and SSN ~ 300-XX-XXXX, which corresponds to his 2018 ft% of 92.1% (from wikipedia) and his birthplace of Ohio having a SSN in the range of 268-302 https://www.ssofficelocation.com/social-security-number-prefix . Even if SSN prefixes are random now, they probably weren't when he was born 30 years ago, so it is probably safe to conclude that the location of the point is deliberate. [[User:Acflip|Acflip]] ([[User talk:Acflip|talk]]) 19:01, 4 June 2018 (UTC)
:They changed in 2011 to random generation. I doubt there's any 7 year old NBA players, so until 2029 we'll be able to use this -ahem- metric.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.165|162.158.74.165]] 21:34, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

== On the pog collection ==

Is it possible that the "pog collection" also refers to the player's collection of Player of the Game award? Lebron James would surely have a staggering amount of it, and Steph Curry would have considerably less, since Steph Curry has a lot of other good teammates.
[[User:Skybreak|Skybreak]] ([[User talk:Skybreak|talk]]) 07:58, 5 June 2018 (UTC)Skybreak