explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:2315: Eventual Consistency

2020-06-04T20:36:41Z

Snowblinded:

The current explanation says that "Cueball's employer wants him to continue his work in the COVID-19 pandemic," but that's a "citation needed" sort of statement. Even if the comic is taken to be literally occurring on the day it is published (which is not always the case as comics have taken place in the past, the future, alternate presents, and even spanning large periods of time), there are perhaps multiple things adding up together to make it "hard to focus right now." In the USA, there's hot temperatures, civil unrest, economic woes springing from or accelerated by the pandemic, and even political considerations that may make it hard to focus (governmental responses to current events potentially being out of proportion with the events, etc). If Cueball is elsewhere in the world, there may be other local conditions that might make things hard to focus. There's stuff going on in Hong Kong, the Middle East, Brazil, Somalia, and all over the world that could be making it hard for someone in those locales to concentrate on their work even if the pandemic weren't a possible contributing factor.
: Is it me, or is "continue his work *in* the COVID-19 pandemic" also incorrect? It's a database, not (necessarily) anything to do with COVID-19. Perhaps "in" should be "during" (leaving aside the other arguments)? [[User:John.Adriaan|John.Adriaan]] ([[User talk:John.Adriaan|talk]]) 01:37, 4 June 2020 (UTC)
::Hi, this is the "makes an edit before checking if anyone already thought to comment about it" contributor. Same again, with added complication of an edit-conflict (someone posted whilst I was trying to identify bicycles, fire-hydrants and traffic lights in the CAPTCHA). Reworded the thing to identify the situation as being ''popularised'' (not the right word!) by the pandemic. Though if Cueball were an existing home-based worker, I'm surprised they didn't fire him at the first hint of an excuse to do so. Anyway, moved the Citation Needed that the conflicter edited into the midst of my chosen edit, hopefully a mutually agreeable spot. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.194|141.101.98.194]] 02:02, 4 June 2020 (UTC)
:I agree, Randall has clearly taken a break from the COVID-19 comics in the last weeks, and there no obvious clue that this is a new one. If the "hard to focus right now" has to refer to something current as of June 3rd 2020, it's more likely to be the civil unrest related to George Floyd's death, but that's just another guess.
::Agrees especially with the new header in the xkcd about BLM which came up before this comic, but after the last. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 13:24, 4 June 2020 (UTC)

Just shows that the database needs more testing - as the page is obviously not reaching consistancy. I must admit that I have not looked at this for a dozen years, but I thought it was an unsolved problem in the general case as there was no way of resolving conflicts like these. [[User:Arachrah|Arachrah]] ([[User talk:Arachrah|talk]]) 08:47, 4 June 2020 (UTC)

Then, of course, since the comic doesn't specify what is causing it to be hard to concentrate, it's a bit deictic, and the comic can be linked as a response to multiple future situations (not all of them bad -- having a baby, for instance, can make it hard to concentrate on work.) [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.52|108.162.216.52]] 20:58, 3 June 2020 (UTC)

Side note: YouTuber Tom Scott explained ''eventual consistency'' in one of his ''[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL96C35uN7xGLLeET0dOWaKHkAlPsrkcha The Basics]'' videos: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RY_2gElt3SA "Why Computers Can't Count Sometimes"]. --[[User:Aaron of Mpls|Aaron of Mpls]] ([[User talk:Aaron of Mpls|talk]]) 21:30, 3 June 2020 (UTC)

The current explanation says "His boss retorts that in a heat death, nobody can work" which is completely missing what I assume is intended by "maximum entropy means no useful work can be done!" This statement is likely a reference to the relationship between entropy and the useful work that can be extracted from a thermodynamic system. --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.206.40|172.68.206.40]] 04:13, 4 June 2020 (UTC)

Purely coincidental, but The Infinite Monkey Cage podcast just had an episode on the end of the universe: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08dy6ym. ...and I'd like to add, in that regard, that I predict it'll be Death-By-CAPTCHA (more hydrants, more bicycles, then motorcylcles, when I made a comment above. Let's see what it thinks I need to pursuasively do ''this'' time, eh?) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.96|141.101.98.96]] 02:10, 4 June 2020 (UTC)

Can we agree that this is one of the most Dilbert-like of all xkcds? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.69.91|141.101.69.91]]Eric <-- @Eric Exactly my thought when I read it[[User:Cellocgw|Cellocgw]] ([[User talk:Cellocgw|talk]]) 10:56, 4 June 2020 (UTC)

Protest! After the heat death of the universe, suppose there is still a database left (let's skip the fact that alone the existence of a computer means maximum entropy hasn't been reached yet - a local order bubble after heat death is normal anyway). User 1 (also miraculously surviving) checks the files to find data "random1". User 2 "random2". How could that be termed consistent (unless consistent random)? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.223|162.158.158.223]] 08:48, 4 June 2020 (UTC)

Quoting Asimov quoting Emerson, "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." So there's that :-) [[User:Cellocgw|Cellocgw]] ([[User talk:Cellocgw|talk]]) 10:56, 4 June 2020 (UTC)

Why assume it is his boss he is talking too. Could just be one of his colleagues since the speaker talks about us getting the work done. Also more likely to be a Megan type he talks to, who knows about the Heath death and entropy, which his boss probably do not, as he is not so geeky ;-) --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 13:24, 4 June 2020 (UTC)

Given the "Black Lives Matter" banner at the top of the site and the link Campaign Zero, I would guess that the "hard to focus" refers to the George Floyd protests rather than Covid. [[User:Snowblinded|Snowblinded]] ([[User talk:Snowblinded|talk]]) 20:36, 4 June 2020 (UTC)

1985: Meteorologist

2018-04-26T15:59:10Z

Snowblinded: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1985
| date = April 25, 2018
| title = Meteorologist
| image = meteorologist.png
| titletext = Hi, I'm your new meteorologist and a former software developer. Hey, when we say 12pm, does that mean the hour from 12pm to 1pm, or the hour centered on 12pm? Or is it a snapshot at 12:00 exactly? Because our 24-hour forecast has midnight at both ends, and I'm worried we have an off-by-one error.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an OVERLY ANALYTICAL METEOROLOGIST. More on Cueball's 2nd panel. More on Blondie's linguistics, explanation for {{w|dummy pronoun}}. Wiki links. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Although we’re constantly exposed to them, many (most?) people don’t understand the details of how to properly interpret weather forecasts. This comic takes this to the ridiculous extreme of the weather reporters themselves not understanding, and asking questions about it while on-air. It shows questions asked by three different people with different backgrounds: mathematics, linguistics, and (in the title text) software development. In addition, many terms and numbers used by weather forecasters have very technical definitions and usages; however, because they are used so commonly (whenever someone tells us the weather), it is easy to assume we understand what it means. This comic also points at this fact by asking clarifying questions about subjects that meteorologists know but the average person doesn't (such as the definition of "scattered showers" and how it's determined, what a "chance of rain" means, and so on).

The first meteorologist, [[Cueball]], has a background in pure math. His forecast states that each of the next five hours has a 20% chance of rain. It could be that rain was certain, but it would only last about an hour and will come within the next five hours. That would give 20% for rain in each hour but certainty of rain within those hours. This corresponds to his last question in the first panel.

But before that he focuses on probability when he asks if each hour is independent or correlated. If each hour were independent, there would have been a 67.232% chance to rain at least once. However, if the hours had been correlated, the chance would be less, since if it didn't rain in the first hour, it would decrease the chance of rain in the next hours. However, it would make it more likely of raining in all 5 hours, as it would be a .032% chance if it wasn't correlated. But if it was correlated, rain in the first hour would make it more likely to rain in the subsequent hours.

In the second panel he continues to discuss what scattered showers means. Like most of the other weather terms in this comic, the term "scattered showers" is one whose technical definition is largely unknown but appears simple enough that most people would assume they understand what it means. "Scattered" refers to when the rain covers roughly 30% to 50% of the area. To somebody who doesn't know this, like the first meteorologist, there's still the very valid question of how likely it is to rain in a specific spot, and how this is affected by the previous chance of rain. Not to mention, the percentage that defines "scattered showers" implicitly assumes a surface area that is accounted into the percent. Cueball rightly asks clarification on how large the location used to determine "scattered showers" is.

Finally in that panel Cueball begins to explain that he has asked the management about these things, but that they have stopped replying to his e-mails. At this point he spots the security guy coming over, and the screen goes black in to a technical difficulty screen that excuses this behavior to the viewers.

Questioning these things on air is likely confusing to the watchers, although they are all valid questions. But this may lose viewers and the news network is afraid of this. The technical difficulty panel further cements this, apologizing for hiring a person with a pure math background. Often seen as one that do not understand how to talk to regular people.

When they get back on air gain a new meteorologist, [[Blondie]], steps in. The management enquires (on air) to make sure she is not also a mathematician. She states no, but tells that she has a linguistics degree, which the management thinks is fine, and thus believes they have prevented the problem with Cueball. However, this proves to be in vain, as Blondie goes into a tangent once more but from a linguistics standpoint, rather than a mathematical one, detailing the true meaning of the word "it" as referring to the weather. After one panel of this the management calls for security again.

While, at the most basic level, human speech is broken into subject, object, and verb; for some reason we are capable of producing and comprehending speech without both objects or verbs, but there is a certain "resistance" to speech without a subject. Thus if you are in the passenger seat of a car going down the highway and happened to see some deer in the trees nearby, you could simply say "Deer.", rather than "there is a deer over there", deer being the subject of the sentence. However, if you noticed that it had begun to rain, you could not simply say "Raining." on it's own. Feel how that sentence just seems weird? Hence we have developed the tendency to use the filler word "it" despite the fact that when we say "It's raining." the "it" is not a reference to the clouds producing the rain, but the general state of the rainfall around us. (McWhorter, John. Understanding Linguistics: The Science of Language. https://www.thegreatcourses.com/courses/understanding-linguistics-the-science-of-language.html )

In the title text, the news station has made the same error again, by this time hiring a software developer as the third meteorologist. This last person is stating concerns about the feasibility of the time system used to correlate to the weather patterns. Because it appears simple, many people would simply assume they understand what is being said when a meteorologist talks about "12pm" or "1pm". However, because software developers frequently have to deal with things such as specifying exactly what time-label means what, the new meteorologist begins to wonder what time period is actually meant on a per-hour forecast. On such an hour forecast does 12pm refer to the hour from 12 to 1pm, from 11:30 to 12:30 or is it actually only to the weather precisely at 12:00 that is referred to? The software developer also worries about an {{w|off-by-one error}}, which is a common error in software development occurring when boundary conditions include one element too few or too many: when counting by 24 once every set period (for example), it is common to forget whether the count should stop at 23 or at 24, especially if the number 0 (midnight) is included. In the 24-hour forecast, that means there's 25 hours represented every day, and the software developer worries that these 25 hours might add up and, every progressive day, the forecast is one more hour off.

Of course it should be pointed out that hiring someone without any meteorological training to read the weather does not make them an actual meteorologist, no more than say hiring a bricklayer as a doctor would actually make them a real doctor.

== Answering the Comic's Questions ==

Management would certainly answer the mathematician's questions! The questions themselves have been asked of meteorologists before, and NOAA has published relevant answers for [https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop probability of precipitation], as well as [https://www.weather.gov/bgm/forecast_terms timing and the meanings of particular forecast words]. The naming is also addressed [https://www.weather.gov/media/ajk/brochures/ConvectivevsStratiform.pdf here].

Regarding probability of precipitation, NOAA forecasts give the probability that it will rain at all at any given point in an area. To rephrase it, it is the probability of rain occurring '''at all''' within a forecast area, multiplied by the percentage of area affected by the rain. The "forecast area" is a clearly defined area of land and can be seen in the map of any official National Weather Service forecast. [https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=34.0732&lon=-118.3963 Here is an example].

Regarding the timing of the forecast, an hourly forecast gives the probability for each particular hour, stretching from the time listed to right before the next hour listed. So, the forecast for noon describes the time period from noon to 1pm. The forecasts for individual hours can be correlated; for this reason, the NOAA generates forecasts that stretch over longer time periods, giving a useful estimate for that time range. Thus, the chance of rain for "Today" specifically means: what is the chance of it raining at any given location during any time between 6am and 6pm?

Regarding phrases like "scattered showers", this specifically means a 25-54% probability of precipitation from convective cloud sources. Other phrases, and when they are used, are detailed in [https://www.weather.gov/media/ajk/brochures/ConvectivevsStratiform.pdf the chart at the end of this PDF].

So, to conclude:

* "How likely is it to rain this afternoon?" We don't know, you need to show the 12pm to 6pm forecast, not the hourly.
* "Is each hour independent? Correlated?" Hourly values are given for that hour only. They can be correlated, hence why they can't be used to calculate the answer to "How likely is it to rain this afternoon?"
* "Is rain guaranteed and we're just unsure of the timing?" It's not guaranteed for any individual spot or time. It's still probabilistic.
* "It says 'scattered showers.' Is this the chance of rain '''somewhere''' in your area?" Yes, it is, and it means the the rain will come from convective cloud sources with a probability of precipitation somewhere between 25 and 54%.
* "How big is your area?" It's detailed in the forecast the mathematician would be reading from.
* "What if you have two locations you're worried about?" You would check two separate forecasts, one for each area.
* "Hey, when we say 12pm, does that mean the hour from 12pm to 1pm, or the hour centered on 12pm? Or is it a snapshot at 12:00 exactly?" It means the hour from noon to 1:59pm.

==Transcript==

:[Cueball is presenting a weather forecast while seated with his arms resting on a table. The graphic to the left of Cueball shows five hours from 12pm to 4pm, each with a rainy cloud icon and the figure 20%. The "News 4 Weather" logo is shown on the bottom left.]
:Cueball: Our forecast says there's a 20% chance of rain for each of the next five hours.
:Cueball: How likely is it to rain this afternoon? It's a simple question, but I don't know the answer. Is each hour independent? Correlated? Or is rain guaranteed and we're just unsure of the timing?

:Cueball: It says "scattered showers." Is this the chance of rain '''''somewhere''''' in your area? How big is your area? What if you have two locations you're worried about?
:Cueball: I've asked management, but they've stopped answering my emails, so—hang on, the security guy is coming over.

:[A black screen is shown with white text:]
:''Technical Difficulties''
:—
:''We apologize for hiring a meteorologist with a pure math background.''
:—
:''We'll be back on the air shortly.''
:
:News 4

:[Cueball is replaced with Blondie.]
:Blondie: Sorry about that. Hi, I'm your new meteorologist.
:Off-panel voice: And you're not a mathematician, right?
:Blondie: No. I do have a linguistics degree.
:Off-panel voice: That's fine.

:Blondie: It might rain this afternoon.
:Blondie: But what is "it" here? Is it a true dummy pronoun, as in the phrase "It's too bad?" Or is the weather an entity?
:Blondie: Also, what if I say, "It's hot out, and getting bigger?"
:Off-panel voice: Security!

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Blondie]]
[[Category:News anchor]]

1985: Meteorologist

2018-04-26T15:57:59Z

Snowblinded: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1985
| date = April 25, 2018
| title = Meteorologist
| image = meteorologist.png
| titletext = Hi, I'm your new meteorologist and a former software developer. Hey, when we say 12pm, does that mean the hour from 12pm to 1pm, or the hour centered on 12pm? Or is it a snapshot at 12:00 exactly? Because our 24-hour forecast has midnight at both ends, and I'm worried we have an off-by-one error.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an OVERLY ANALYTICAL METEOROLOGIST. More on Cueball's 2nd panel. More on Blondie's linguistics, explanation for {{w|dummy pronoun}}. Wiki links. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Although we’re constantly exposed to them, many (most?) people don’t understand the details of how to properly interpret weather forecasts. This comic takes this to the ridiculous extreme of the weather reporters themselves not understanding, and asking questions about it while on-air. It shows questions asked by three different people with different backgrounds: mathematics, linguistics, and (in the title text) software development. In addition, many terms and numbers used by weather forecasters have very technical definitions and usages; however, because they are used so commonly (whenever someone tells us the weather), it is easy to assume we understand what it means. This comic also points at this fact by asking clarifying questions about subjects that meteorologists know but the average person doesn't (such as the definition of "scattered showers" and how it's determined, what a "chance of rain" means, and so on).

The first meteorologist, [[Cueball]], has a background in pure math. His forecast states that each of the next five hours has a 20% chance of rain. It could be that rain was certain, but it would only last about an hour and will come within the next five hours. That would give 20% for rain in each hour but certainty of rain within those hours. This corresponds to his last question in the first panel.

But before that he focuses on probability when he asks if each hour is independent or correlated. If each hour were independent, there would have been a 67.232% chance to rain at least once. However, if the hours had been correlated, the chance would be less, since if it didn't rain in the first hour, it would decrease the chance of rain in the next hours. However, it would make it more likely of raining in all 5 hours, as it would be a .032% chance if it wasn't correlated. But if it was correlated, rain in the first hour would make it more likely to rain in the subsequent hours.

In the second panel he continues to discuss what scattered showers means. Like most of the other weather terms in this comic, the term "scattered showers" is one whose technical definition is largely unknown but appears simple enough that most people would assume they understand what it means. "Scattered" refers to when the rain covers roughly 30% to 50% of the area. To somebody who doesn't know this, like the first meteorologist, there's still the very valid question of how likely it is to rain in a specific spot, and how this is affected by the previous chance of rain. Not to mention, the percentage that defines "scattered showers" implicitly assumes a surface area that is accounted into the percent. Cueball rightly asks clarification on how large the location used to determine "scattered showers" is.

Finally in that panel Cueball begins to explain that he has asked the management about these things, but that they have stopped replying to his e-mails. At this point he spots the security guy coming over, and the screen goes black in to a technical difficulty screen that excuses this behavior to the viewers.

Questioning these things on air is likely confusing to the watchers, although they are all valid questions. But this may lose viewers and the news network is afraid of this. The technical difficulty panel further cements this, apologizing for hiring a person with a pure math background. Often seen as one that do not understand how to talk to regular people.

When they get back on air gain a new meteorologist, [[Blondie]], steps in. The management enquires (on air) to make sure she is not also a mathematician. She states no, but tells that she has a linguistics degree, which the management thinks is fine, and thus believes they have prevented the problem with Cueball. However, this proves to be in vain, as Blondie goes into a tangent once more but from a linguistics standpoint, rather than a mathematical one, detailing the true meaning of the word "it" as referring to the weather. After one panel of this the management calls for security again.

While, at the most basic level, human speech is broken into subject, object, and verb; for some reason we are capable of producing and comprehending speech without both objects or verbs, but there is a certain "resistance" to speech without a subject. Thus if you are in the passenger seat of a car going down the highway and happened to see some deer in the trees nearby, you could simply say "Deer.", rather than "there is a deer over there", deer being the subject of the sentence. However, if you noticed that it had begun to rain, you could not simply say "Raining." on it's own. Feel how that sentence just seems weird? Hence we have developed the tendency to use the filler word "it" despite the fact that when we say "It's raining" the "it" is not a reference to the clouds producing the rain, but the general state of the rainfall around us. (McWhorter, John. Understanding Linguistics: The Science of Language. https://www.thegreatcourses.com/courses/understanding-linguistics-the-science-of-language.html )

In the title text, the news station has made the same error again, by this time hiring a software developer as the third meteorologist. This last person is stating concerns about the feasibility of the time system used to correlate to the weather patterns. Because it appears simple, many people would simply assume they understand what is being said when a meteorologist talks about "12pm" or "1pm". However, because software developers frequently have to deal with things such as specifying exactly what time-label means what, the new meteorologist begins to wonder what time period is actually meant on a per-hour forecast. On such an hour forecast does 12pm refer to the hour from 12 to 1pm, from 11:30 to 12:30 or is it actually only to the weather precisely at 12:00 that is referred to? The software developer also worries about an {{w|off-by-one error}}, which is a common error in software development occurring when boundary conditions include one element too few or too many: when counting by 24 once every set period (for example), it is common to forget whether the count should stop at 23 or at 24, especially if the number 0 (midnight) is included. In the 24-hour forecast, that means there's 25 hours represented every day, and the software developer worries that these 25 hours might add up and, every progressive day, the forecast is one more hour off.

Of course it should be pointed out that hiring someone without any meteorological training to read the weather does not make them an actual meteorologist, no more than say hiring a bricklayer as a doctor would actually make them a real doctor.

== Answering the Comic's Questions ==

Management would certainly answer the mathematician's questions! The questions themselves have been asked of meteorologists before, and NOAA has published relevant answers for [https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop probability of precipitation], as well as [https://www.weather.gov/bgm/forecast_terms timing and the meanings of particular forecast words]. The naming is also addressed [https://www.weather.gov/media/ajk/brochures/ConvectivevsStratiform.pdf here].

Regarding probability of precipitation, NOAA forecasts give the probability that it will rain at all at any given point in an area. To rephrase it, it is the probability of rain occurring '''at all''' within a forecast area, multiplied by the percentage of area affected by the rain. The "forecast area" is a clearly defined area of land and can be seen in the map of any official National Weather Service forecast. [https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=34.0732&lon=-118.3963 Here is an example].

Regarding the timing of the forecast, an hourly forecast gives the probability for each particular hour, stretching from the time listed to right before the next hour listed. So, the forecast for noon describes the time period from noon to 1pm. The forecasts for individual hours can be correlated; for this reason, the NOAA generates forecasts that stretch over longer time periods, giving a useful estimate for that time range. Thus, the chance of rain for "Today" specifically means: what is the chance of it raining at any given location during any time between 6am and 6pm?

Regarding phrases like "scattered showers", this specifically means a 25-54% probability of precipitation from convective cloud sources. Other phrases, and when they are used, are detailed in [https://www.weather.gov/media/ajk/brochures/ConvectivevsStratiform.pdf the chart at the end of this PDF].

So, to conclude:

* "How likely is it to rain this afternoon?" We don't know, you need to show the 12pm to 6pm forecast, not the hourly.
* "Is each hour independent? Correlated?" Hourly values are given for that hour only. They can be correlated, hence why they can't be used to calculate the answer to "How likely is it to rain this afternoon?"
* "Is rain guaranteed and we're just unsure of the timing?" It's not guaranteed for any individual spot or time. It's still probabilistic.
* "It says 'scattered showers.' Is this the chance of rain '''somewhere''' in your area?" Yes, it is, and it means the the rain will come from convective cloud sources with a probability of precipitation somewhere between 25 and 54%.
* "How big is your area?" It's detailed in the forecast the mathematician would be reading from.
* "What if you have two locations you're worried about?" You would check two separate forecasts, one for each area.
* "Hey, when we say 12pm, does that mean the hour from 12pm to 1pm, or the hour centered on 12pm? Or is it a snapshot at 12:00 exactly?" It means the hour from noon to 1:59pm.

==Transcript==

:[Cueball is presenting a weather forecast while seated with his arms resting on a table. The graphic to the left of Cueball shows five hours from 12pm to 4pm, each with a rainy cloud icon and the figure 20%. The "News 4 Weather" logo is shown on the bottom left.]
:Cueball: Our forecast says there's a 20% chance of rain for each of the next five hours.
:Cueball: How likely is it to rain this afternoon? It's a simple question, but I don't know the answer. Is each hour independent? Correlated? Or is rain guaranteed and we're just unsure of the timing?

:Cueball: It says "scattered showers." Is this the chance of rain '''''somewhere''''' in your area? How big is your area? What if you have two locations you're worried about?
:Cueball: I've asked management, but they've stopped answering my emails, so—hang on, the security guy is coming over.

:[A black screen is shown with white text:]
:''Technical Difficulties''
:—
:''We apologize for hiring a meteorologist with a pure math background.''
:—
:''We'll be back on the air shortly.''
:
:News 4

:[Cueball is replaced with Blondie.]
:Blondie: Sorry about that. Hi, I'm your new meteorologist.
:Off-panel voice: And you're not a mathematician, right?
:Blondie: No. I do have a linguistics degree.
:Off-panel voice: That's fine.

:Blondie: It might rain this afternoon.
:Blondie: But what is "it" here? Is it a true dummy pronoun, as in the phrase "It's too bad?" Or is the weather an entity?
:Blondie: Also, what if I say, "It's hot out, and getting bigger?"
:Off-panel voice: Security!

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Blondie]]
[[Category:News anchor]]

1985: Meteorologist

2018-04-26T14:09:45Z

Snowblinded: /* Added linguistic info. Sorry about the citation, but I couldn't find any info on how you guys format them over here. Any help would be appreciated. */

{{comic
| number = 1985
| date = April 25, 2018
| title = Meteorologist
| image = meteorologist.png
| titletext = Hi, I'm your new meteorologist and a former software developer. Hey, when we say 12pm, does that mean the hour from 12pm to 1pm, or the hour centered on 12pm? Or is it a snapshot at 12:00 exactly? Because our 24-hour forecast has midnight at both ends, and I'm worried we have an off-by-one error.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an OVERLY ANALYTICAL METEOROLOGIST. More on Cueball's 2nd panel. More on Blondie's linguistics, explanation for {{w|dummy pronoun}}. Wiki links. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Although we’re constantly exposed to them, many (most?) people don’t understand the details of how to properly interpret weather forecasts. This comic takes this to the ridiculous extreme of the weather reporters themselves not understanding, and asking questions about it while on-air. It shows questions asked by three different people with different backgrounds: mathematics, linguistics, and (in the title text) software development. In addition, many terms and numbers used by weather forecasters have very technical definitions and usages; however, because they are used so commonly (whenever someone tells us the weather), it is easy to assume we understand what it means. This comic also points at this fact by asking clarifying questions about subjects that meteorologists know but the average person doesn't (such as the definition of "scattered showers" and how it's determined, what a "chance of rain" means, and so on).

The first meteorologist, [[Cueball]], has a background in pure math. His forecast states that each of the next five hours has a 20% chance of rain. It could be that rain was certain, but it would only last about an hour and will come within the next five hours. That would give 20% for rain in each hour but certainty of rain within those hours. This corresponds to his last question in the first panel.

But before that he focuses on probability when he asks if each hour is independent or correlated. If each hour were independent, there would have been a 67.232% chance to rain at least once. However, if the hours had been correlated, the chance would be less, since if it didn't rain in the first hour, it would decrease the chance of rain in the next hours. However, it would make it more likely of raining in all 5 hours, as it would be a .032% chance if it wasn't correlated. But if it was correlated, rain in the first hour would make it more likely to rain in the subsequent hours.

In the second panel he continues to discuss what scattered showers means. Like most of the other weather terms in this comic, the term "scattered showers" is one whose technical definition is largely unknown but appears simple enough that most people would assume they understand what it means. "Scattered" refers to when the rain covers roughly 30% to 50% of the area. To somebody who doesn't know this, like the first meteorologist, there's still the very valid question of how likely it is to rain in a specific spot, and how this is affected by the previous chance of rain. Not to mention, the percentage that defines "scattered showers" implicitly assumes a surface area that is accounted into the percent. Cueball rightly asks clarification on how large the location used to determine "scattered showers" is.

Finally in that panel Cueball begins to explain that he has asked the management about these things, but that they have stopped replying to his e-mails. At this point he spots the security guy coming over, and the screen goes black in to a technical difficulty screen that excuses this behavior to the viewers.

Questioning these things on air is likely confusing to the watchers, although they are all valid questions. But this may lose viewers and the news network is afraid of this. The technical difficulty panel further cements this, apologizing for hiring a person with a pure math background. Often seen as one that do not understand how to talk to regular people.

When they get back on air gain a new meteorologist, [[Blondie]], steps in. The management enquires (on air) to make sure she is not also a mathematician. She states no, but tells that she has a linguistics degree, which the management thinks is fine, and thus believes they have prevented the problem with Cueball. However, this proves to be in vain, as Blondie goes into a tangent once more but from a linguistics standpoint, rather than a mathematical one, detailing the true meaning of the word "it" as referring to the weather. After one panel of this the management calls for security again.

While, at the most basic level, human speech is broken into subject, object, and verb; for some reason we are capable of producing and comprehending speech without both objects or verbs, but there is a certain "resistance" to speech without a subject. Thus if you in the passenger seat of a car going down the highway and happened to see some deer in the trees nearby, you could simply say "Deer.", rather than "there is a deer over there", deer being the subject of the sentence. However, if you noticed that it had begun to rain, you could not simply say "Raining." on it's own. Feel how that sentence just seems weird? Hence we have developed the tendency to use the filler word "it" despite the fact that when we say "It's raining" the "it" is not a reference to the clouds producing the rain, but the general state of the rainfall around us. (McWhorter, John. Understanding Linguistics: The Science of Language. https://www.thegreatcourses.com/courses/understanding-linguistics-the-science-of-language.html )

In the title text, the news station has made the same error again, by this time hiring a software developer as the third meteorologist. This last person is stating concerns about the feasibility of the time system used to correlate to the weather patterns. Because it appears simple, many people would simply assume they understand what is being said when a meteorologist talks about "12pm" or "1pm". However, because software developers frequently have to deal with things such as specifying exactly what time-label means what, the new meteorologist begins to wonder what time period is actually meant on a per-hour forecast. On such an hour forecast does 12pm refer to the hour from 12 to 1pm, from 11:30 to 12:30 or is it actually only to the weather precisely at 12:00 that is referred to? The software developer also worries about an {{w|off-by-one error}}, which is a common error in software development occurring when boundary conditions include one element too few or too many: when counting by 24 once every set period (for example), it is common to forget whether the count should stop at 23 or at 24, especially if the number 0 (midnight) is included. In the 24-hour forecast, that means there's 25 hours represented every day, and the software developer worries that these 25 hours might add up and, every progressive day, the forecast is one more hour off.

Of course it should be pointed out that hiring someone without any meteorological training to read the weather does not make them an actual meteorologist, no more than say hiring a bricklayer as a doctor would actually make them a real doctor.

== Answering the Comic's Questions ==

Management would certainly answer the mathematician's questions! The questions themselves have been asked of meteorologists before, and NOAA has published relevant answers for [https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop probability of precipitation], as well as [https://www.weather.gov/bgm/forecast_terms timing and the meanings of particular forecast words]. The naming is also addressed [https://www.weather.gov/media/ajk/brochures/ConvectivevsStratiform.pdf here].

Regarding probability of precipitation, NOAA forecasts give the probability that it will rain at all at any given point in an area. To rephrase it, it is the probability of rain occurring '''at all''' within a forecast area, multiplied by the percentage of area affected by the rain. The "forecast area" is a clearly defined area of land and can be seen in the map of any official National Weather Service forecast. [https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=34.0732&lon=-118.3963 Here is an example].

Regarding the timing of the forecast, an hourly forecast gives the probability for each particular hour, stretching from the time listed to right before the next hour listed. So, the forecast for noon describes the time period from noon to 1pm. The forecasts for individual hours can be correlated; for this reason, the NOAA generates forecasts that stretch over longer time periods, giving a useful estimate for that time range. Thus, the chance of rain for "Today" specifically means: what is the chance of it raining at any given location during any time between 6am and 6pm?

Regarding phrases like "scattered showers", this specifically means a 25-54% probability of precipitation from convective cloud sources. Other phrases, and when they are used, are detailed in [https://www.weather.gov/media/ajk/brochures/ConvectivevsStratiform.pdf the chart at the end of this PDF].

So, to conclude:

* "How likely is it to rain this afternoon?" We don't know, you need to show the 12pm to 6pm forecast, not the hourly.
* "Is each hour independent? Correlated?" Hourly values are given for that hour only. They can be correlated, hence why they can't be used to calculate the answer to "How likely is it to rain this afternoon?"
* "Is rain guaranteed and we're just unsure of the timing?" It's not guaranteed for any individual spot or time. It's still probabilistic.
* "It says 'scattered showers.' Is this the chance of rain '''somewhere''' in your area?" Yes, it is, and it means the the rain will come from convective cloud sources with a probability of precipitation somewhere between 25 and 54%.
* "How big is your area?" It's detailed in the forecast the mathematician would be reading from.
* "What if you have two locations you're worried about?" You would check two separate forecasts, one for each area.
* "Hey, when we say 12pm, does that mean the hour from 12pm to 1pm, or the hour centered on 12pm? Or is it a snapshot at 12:00 exactly?" It means the hour from noon to 1:59pm.

==Transcript==

:[Cueball is presenting a weather forecast while seated with his arms resting on a table. The graphic to the left of Cueball shows five hours from 12pm to 4pm, each with a rainy cloud icon and the figure 20%. The "News 4 Weather" logo is shown on the bottom left.]
:Cueball: Our forecast says there's a 20% chance of rain for each of the next five hours.
:Cueball: How likely is it to rain this afternoon? It's a simple question, but I don't know the answer. Is each hour independent? Correlated? Or is rain guaranteed and we're just unsure of the timing?

:Cueball: It says "scattered showers." Is this the chance of rain '''''somewhere''''' in your area? How big is your area? What if you have two locations you're worried about?
:Cueball: I've asked management, but they've stopped answering my emails, so—hang on, the security guy is coming over.

:[A black screen is shown with white text:]
:''Technical Difficulties''
:—
:''We apologize for hiring a meteorologist with a pure math background.''
:—
:''We'll be back on the air shortly.''
:
:News 4

:[Cueball is replaced with Blondie.]
:Blondie: Sorry about that. Hi, I'm your new meteorologist.
:Off-panel voice: And you're not a mathematician, right?
:Blondie: No. I do have a linguistics degree.
:Off-panel voice: That's fine.

:Blondie: It might rain this afternoon.
:Blondie: But what is "it" here? Is it a true dummy pronoun, as in the phrase "It's too bad?" Or is the weather an entity?
:Blondie: Also, what if I say, "It's hot out, and getting bigger?"
:Off-panel voice: Security!

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Blondie]]
[[Category:News anchor]]

Talk:1963: Namespace Land Rush

2018-03-06T18:04:03Z

Snowblinded:

* Ahh, he left off '''root''' under Causing More Trouble. [[User:Nutster|Nutster]] ([[User talk:Nutster|talk]]) 05:41, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
** Also "'''null'''"... [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.237|162.158.62.237]] 21:09, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* I'm very disappointed he left out dotnotreplay@... --05:43, 5 March 2018 (UTC)~
* Is "gibberish name no one can pronounce" a reference to xkcd? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.64|108.162.215.64]] 05:56, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* No '''test''' included. Frankly speaking I have seen people using '''testtest''','''testtesttesttest''', and so on, up to the maxiumn allowed character limit. [[User:Jackomatt|Jackomatt]] ([[User talk:Jackomatt|talk]]) 06:35, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* Took me some time to type the transcript. Randall made it quite hard. [[User:QATEKLYXM|Klyxm]] ([[User talk:QATEKLYXM|talk]]) 06:38, 5 March 2018
* The thing at the bottom-right, he wrote "forward slash" but used a backslash. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.126.76|162.158.126.76]] 08:35, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
:*It's just to mess with you. [[User:QATEKLYXM|Klyxm]] ([[User talk:QATEKLYXM|talk]]) 08:49, 5 March 2018
* Null! Where's null? [[User:PenguinF|PenguinF]] ([[User talk:PenguinF|talk]]) 09:14, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* I think this whole comic is a reference to the video Worst Wifi Password Ever [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLE7zsJk4AI] --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.238.76|162.158.238.76]] 11:13, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
This is analogous to the way that land was distributed in America
There is so much wrong with that sentence. --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.154.25|162.158.154.25]] 12:26, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* I think is what he means by rtl override: https://krebsonsecurity.com/2011/09/right-to-left-override-aids-email-attacks/ and I agree surprised he didn’t include the null character; maybe because it’s so hard to get it to actually reach the service? [[Special:Contributions/172.68.54.136|172.68.54.136]] 15:24, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* Emojis don't work in databases? They should be treated no differently from any other UNICODE characters. They would be hard to type if you're using an OS/browser that doesn't have a convenient Emoji-picker, but I would think that they should work as long as the server isn't filtering them out. But I've never deployed a service like this so there may be something important I'm missing here. [[User:Shamino|Shamino]] ([[User talk:Shamino|talk]]) 17:53, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
:: The "emoji not work" refers specifically to emojis requiring four characters when encoded in UTF-8, as many programs including databases like MySQL [https://dev.mysql.com/doc/refman/5.5/en/charset-unicode-utf8mb4.html used to only support three-byte UTF-8 characters]. There are emoji which fits into three bytes and non-emoji characters requiring four bytes, but for most people, support for four-byte UTF-8 is equivalent to support of (new) emoji. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 00:56, 6 March 2018 (UTC)
:: (Obviously, when you want to test database, you should be creative and instead of "any" emoji try something like "fairy girl with dark skin tone" [https://emojipedia.org/woman-fairy-dark-skin-tone/ 🧚🏿‍♀️] - that's five UTF characters, 18 bytes total, and is supposed to render as single character) -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 01:08, 6 March 2018 (UTC)
Someone once told me that on old email databases, you could send a message to "*@example.com" and it would send the message to everyone with an account on that domain. No idea if its true or not, but it seems like the username "*" could cause problems. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.16|162.158.75.16]] 19:56, 5 March 2018 (UTC)

So '''OkThisIsKindOfConfusingButIt's <LessThan\ForwardSlashHTML GreaterThanActualGreaterThan Symbol>Yes,ThatWasAllPartOfThe Name,ButSoIs...Ok,LetMeStartOver''' actually is "<<\/HTML>> or is it just supposed to be </HTML>? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.105.180|141.101.105.180]] 13:46, 6 March 2018 (UTC)
* I am not confident enough about this to make the edit myself, but wouldn't the names listed in '''Causing Trouble (Usernames that might cause errors when mixed with the service's back-end code)''' (user, guest, etc) be used not so much to trying to fool other people, but because those names are often used as placeholders when the site is in development, and may therefore still have odd/altered permissions, allowing potential malicious access assuming the devs were lazy? [[User:Snowblinded|Snowblinded]] ([[User talk:Snowblinded|talk]]) 18:04, 6 March 2018 (UTC)

Talk:1963: Namespace Land Rush

2018-03-06T18:02:20Z

Snowblinded:

* Ahh, he left off '''root''' under Causing More Trouble. [[User:Nutster|Nutster]] ([[User talk:Nutster|talk]]) 05:41, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
** Also "'''null'''"... [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.237|162.158.62.237]] 21:09, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* I'm very disappointed he left out dotnotreplay@... --05:43, 5 March 2018 (UTC)~
* Is "gibberish name no one can pronounce" a reference to xkcd? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.64|108.162.215.64]] 05:56, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* No '''test''' included. Frankly speaking I have seen people using '''testtest''','''testtesttesttest''', and so on, up to the maxiumn allowed character limit. [[User:Jackomatt|Jackomatt]] ([[User talk:Jackomatt|talk]]) 06:35, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* Took me some time to type the transcript. Randall made it quite hard. [[User:QATEKLYXM|Klyxm]] ([[User talk:QATEKLYXM|talk]]) 06:38, 5 March 2018
* The thing at the bottom-right, he wrote "forward slash" but used a backslash. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.126.76|162.158.126.76]] 08:35, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
:*It's just to mess with you. [[User:QATEKLYXM|Klyxm]] ([[User talk:QATEKLYXM|talk]]) 08:49, 5 March 2018
* Null! Where's null? [[User:PenguinF|PenguinF]] ([[User talk:PenguinF|talk]]) 09:14, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* I think this whole comic is a reference to the video Worst Wifi Password Ever [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLE7zsJk4AI] --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.238.76|162.158.238.76]] 11:13, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
This is analogous to the way that land was distributed in America
There is so much wrong with that sentence. --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.154.25|162.158.154.25]] 12:26, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* I think is what he means by rtl override: https://krebsonsecurity.com/2011/09/right-to-left-override-aids-email-attacks/ and I agree surprised he didn’t include the null character; maybe because it’s so hard to get it to actually reach the service? [[Special:Contributions/172.68.54.136|172.68.54.136]] 15:24, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* Emojis don't work in databases? They should be treated no differently from any other UNICODE characters. They would be hard to type if you're using an OS/browser that doesn't have a convenient Emoji-picker, but I would think that they should work as long as the server isn't filtering them out. But I've never deployed a service like this so there may be something important I'm missing here. [[User:Shamino|Shamino]] ([[User talk:Shamino|talk]]) 17:53, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
:: The "emoji not work" refers specifically to emojis requiring four characters when encoded in UTF-8, as many programs including databases like MySQL [https://dev.mysql.com/doc/refman/5.5/en/charset-unicode-utf8mb4.html used to only support three-byte UTF-8 characters]. There are emoji which fits into three bytes and non-emoji characters requiring four bytes, but for most people, support for four-byte UTF-8 is equivalent to support of (new) emoji. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 00:56, 6 March 2018 (UTC)
:: (Obviously, when you want to test database, you should be creative and instead of "any" emoji try something like "fairy girl with dark skin tone" [https://emojipedia.org/woman-fairy-dark-skin-tone/ 🧚🏿‍♀️] - that's five UTF characters, 18 bytes total, and is supposed to render as single character) -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 01:08, 6 March 2018 (UTC)
Someone once told me that on old email databases, you could send a message to "*@example.com" and it would send the message to everyone with an account on that domain. No idea if its true or not, but it seems like the username "*" could cause problems. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.16|162.158.75.16]] 19:56, 5 March 2018 (UTC)

So '''OkThisIsKindOfConfusingButIt's <LessThan\ForwardSlashHTML GreaterThanActualGreaterThan Symbol>Yes,ThatWasAllPartOfThe Name,ButSoIs...Ok,LetMeStartOver''' actually is "<<\/HTML>> or is it just supposed to be </HTML>? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.105.180|141.101.105.180]] 13:46, 6 March 2018 (UTC)
:: I am not confident enough about this to make the edit myself, but wouldn't the names listed in '''Causing Trouble (Usernames that might cause errors when mixed with the service's back-end code)''' (user, guest, etc) be used not so much to trying to fool other people, but because those names are often used as placeholders when the site is in development, and may therefore still have odd/altered permissions, allowing potential malicious access assuming the devs were lazy? -- [[User:Snowblinded|Snowblinded]] (UTC)

Talk:1963: Namespace Land Rush

2018-03-06T17:59:05Z

Snowblinded:

* Ahh, he left off '''root''' under Causing More Trouble. [[User:Nutster|Nutster]] ([[User talk:Nutster|talk]]) 05:41, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
** Also "'''null'''"... [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.237|162.158.62.237]] 21:09, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* I'm very disappointed he left out dotnotreplay@... --05:43, 5 March 2018 (UTC)~
* Is "gibberish name no one can pronounce" a reference to xkcd? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.64|108.162.215.64]] 05:56, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* No '''test''' included. Frankly speaking I have seen people using '''testtest''','''testtesttesttest''', and so on, up to the maxiumn allowed character limit. [[User:Jackomatt|Jackomatt]] ([[User talk:Jackomatt|talk]]) 06:35, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* Took me some time to type the transcript. Randall made it quite hard. [[User:QATEKLYXM|Klyxm]] ([[User talk:QATEKLYXM|talk]]) 06:38, 5 March 2018
* The thing at the bottom-right, he wrote "forward slash" but used a backslash. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.126.76|162.158.126.76]] 08:35, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
:*It's just to mess with you. [[User:QATEKLYXM|Klyxm]] ([[User talk:QATEKLYXM|talk]]) 08:49, 5 March 2018
* Null! Where's null? [[User:PenguinF|PenguinF]] ([[User talk:PenguinF|talk]]) 09:14, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* I think this whole comic is a reference to the video Worst Wifi Password Ever [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLE7zsJk4AI] --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.238.76|162.158.238.76]] 11:13, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
This is analogous to the way that land was distributed in America
There is so much wrong with that sentence. --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.154.25|162.158.154.25]] 12:26, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* I think is what he means by rtl override: https://krebsonsecurity.com/2011/09/right-to-left-override-aids-email-attacks/ and I agree surprised he didn’t include the null character; maybe because it’s so hard to get it to actually reach the service? [[Special:Contributions/172.68.54.136|172.68.54.136]] 15:24, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
* Emojis don't work in databases? They should be treated no differently from any other UNICODE characters. They would be hard to type if you're using an OS/browser that doesn't have a convenient Emoji-picker, but I would think that they should work as long as the server isn't filtering them out. But I've never deployed a service like this so there may be something important I'm missing here. [[User:Shamino|Shamino]] ([[User talk:Shamino|talk]]) 17:53, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
:: The "emoji not work" refers specifically to emojis requiring four characters when encoded in UTF-8, as many programs including databases like MySQL [https://dev.mysql.com/doc/refman/5.5/en/charset-unicode-utf8mb4.html used to only support three-byte UTF-8 characters]. There are emoji which fits into three bytes and non-emoji characters requiring four bytes, but for most people, support for four-byte UTF-8 is equivalent to support of (new) emoji. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 00:56, 6 March 2018 (UTC)
:: (Obviously, when you want to test database, you should be creative and instead of "any" emoji try something like "fairy girl with dark skin tone" [https://emojipedia.org/woman-fairy-dark-skin-tone/ 🧚🏿‍♀️] - that's five UTF characters, 18 bytes total, and is supposed to render as single character) -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 01:08, 6 March 2018 (UTC)
Someone once told me that on old email databases, you could send a message to "*@example.com" and it would send the message to everyone with an account on that domain. No idea if its true or not, but it seems like the username "*" could cause problems. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.16|162.158.75.16]] 19:56, 5 March 2018 (UTC)

So '''OkThisIsKindOfConfusingButIt's <LessThan\ForwardSlashHTML GreaterThanActualGreaterThan Symbol>Yes,ThatWasAllPartOfThe Name,ButSoIs...Ok,LetMeStartOver''' actually is "<<\/HTML>> or is it just supposed to be </HTML>? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.105.180|141.101.105.180]] 13:46, 6 March 2018 (UTC)
I am not confident enough about this to make the edit myself, but wouldn't the names listed in '''Causing Trouble (Usernames that might cause errors when mixed with the service's back-end code)''' (user, guest, etc) be used not so much to trying to fool other people, but because those names are often used as placeholders when the site is in development, and may therefore still have odd/altered permissions, allowing potential malicious access assuming the devs were lazy? (UTC)

1887: Two Down, One to Go

2017-09-09T12:43:51Z

Snowblinded: /* Explanation */ Alaska is not part of the continental USA

{{comic
| number = 1887
| date = September 8, 2017
| title = Two Down, One to Go
| image = two_down_one_to_go.png
| titletext = The third row will probably have to wait until 2034, and maybe longer. If I see a daytime supernova, I'll replace the meteor storm with that and consider it 3/3.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Needs review and PLEASE: Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

In this comic, [[Randall]] lists three of the most spectacular astronomical sights: a {{w|Solar eclipse|total solar eclipse}}, an {{w|aurora}} (Aurora Borealis in the northern hemisphere and Aurora Australis in the south), and a {{w|Meteor shower|meteor storm}}. In 2017, the first two of these phenomena happened within weeks of each other for observers in much of the US - a coincidence that Randall celebrates.

* '''Total solar eclipse''': The {{w|Solar eclipse of August 21, 2017|total solar eclipse of August 21, 2017}} was the first seen for decades in the {{w|contiguous United States}}. Randall already made [[:Category:Total Solar Eclipse 2017|several comics about this eclipse]].
* '''Aurora''': The aurora borealis is rarely visible from the continental USA. Randall bemoaned the fact he'd never seen one back in [[1302: Year in Review]] in 2013 - which also mentioned the 2017 eclipse. Randall likely finally saw it due to the [https://gizmodo.com/huge-solar-flare-disrupts-gps-satellites-1801838410 giant solar flares] in the week leading up to this comic.
* '''Meteor storm''': A meteor storm is more than just a shower - while the best typical shower gives you a meteor or two per every minute, a storm gives you meteors every few ''seconds'' or better. The {{w|Great Meteor Storm of 1833}} produced hundreds of thousands of meteors per hour.

In the title text, Randall suggests the next meteor storm could be 2034, probably because this is predicted to be [http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/2007JIMO...35....5M a good year for Leonids].

Randall then continues by saying that if he manages to see a {{w|supernova}} during the daytime, he will drop the goal for the meteor storm and call it 3/3. This is because such an event is so unlikely that he hasn't even included it in his bucket list, and he would be happy to switch between the two types of events if he had the chance. A few stars, when they turn supernova, could be so bright that they can be seen during the day time here on Earth. The brightest supernova recorded in human history was {{w|SN 1006}} which was sixteen times brighter than {{w|Venus}} but still not bright as the full moon. {{w|SN 1054}} is an other example. When such a very rare event happen is impossible to predict. There is a [http://earthsky.org/brightest-stars/betelgeuse-will-explode-someday (very small) chance] that the giant star {{w|Betelgeuse}} will go supernova within Randall's lifetime, allowing him to tick this off the list too. Randall even mentioned that this could not happen soon enough in [[1644: Stargazing]]. Note that if you could see it during the day time, it would be one of the brightest objects in the night sky after the Moon.

;Astronomical backgrounds
* Betelgeuse is estimated to be in a range between 613 and 881 {{w|light-year}}s from Earth, which means that its light takes more than 600 years to reach Earth. That incident must have already happened when it should reach us in the next few decades. But since all information cannot travel faster than light there is no way to find this out.
* Something about the brightness of celestial objects:
** The Sun is the brightest object at a {{w|Apparent magnitude|magnitude}} of −26.74
** The next object is the full moon at −12.90
** Venus is at −4.89 on maximum brightness, bright enough to be (barely) [http://www.fourmilab.ch/images/venus_daytime/ visible in the daytime]
** The mentioned supernovae SN 1006 and SN 1054 were at −7.50 and −6.00 respectively
** The brightness of the supernova from Betelgeuse is hard to predict. Because it's closer than the other both supernovae it could become brighter than Venus but definitely not than the full moon.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[There are three rows equally filled with squares and above are year dates beginning from 2002 until 2017. The first year is cut on the left and the color is light gray then fading in to black until 2005. Left of the three rows the text reads:]
:Total eclipse
:Aurora
:Meteor storm
:[Below the year 2017 the squares in the first two rows are checked.]

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Total Solar Eclipse 2017]]
[[Category:Astronomy]]

Talk:1726: Unicode

2016-08-30T08:19:38Z

Snowblinded:

# Proposal by Courtney Milan - 3 dinosaurs: [http://unicode.org/L2/L2016/16072-jurassic-emoji.pdf http://unicode.org/L2/L2016/16072-jurassic-emoji.pdf]
# Feedback by Andrew West - 13 dinosaurs: [http://www.unicode.org/L2/L2016/16103-jurassic-fdbk.pdf http://www.unicode.org/L2/L2016/16103-jurassic-fdbk.pdf]
# Article by Becky Ferreira - they should have feathers: [http://motherboard.vice.com/read/dinosaur-emojis http://motherboard.vice.com/read/dinosaur-emojis]

Sebastian [[Special:Contributions/162.158.83.168|162.158.83.168]] 12:14, 29 August 2016 (UTC)--
:Regarding the brontosaurus reference, there is also some material in the intro of the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brontosaurus wikipedia page]. [[User:Chtit draco|Chtit draco]] ([[User talk:Chtit draco|talk]]) 14:33, 29 August 2016 (UTC)
:Comic could be a reference to WE’RE ALL USING THESE EMOJI WRONG - http://www.wired.com/2015/05/using-emoji-wrong/ where the 😪 emoji is supposed to be a sleepy emoji and not a side-tear emoji - http://emojipedia.org/sleepy-face/ - see facebook's interpretation vs Samsung's{{unsigned ip|162.158.49.60}}

I thought it was funny that the two people in the upper left (who, at the time of this comment, were noted to be "helping" Cueball) are actually impeding the quixotic quest by arguing amongst themselves. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.237.222|108.162.237.222]] 23:38, 29 August 2016 (UTC)

Personally, I'm still dumbfounded by the lack of a marijuana leaf. There are pills, a syringe, a cigarette, rice wine, plus *multiple* Emoji for both wine & beer. I hate the fact that Emoji are *not* implemented in a sensible, standardized fashion: For instance, the guy Emoji may or may not have a mustache, or gray hair. The "short hair" female may be blonde, or brunette & may even have a coiffure instead of short hair! I think they should be far more specific with their definitions. Personally, I'm sticking with emoticons until they get this sorted out. ; P As for dinosaur Emoji, contrary to my previous statement about specificity, I believe you only need three dinomoji: Carnivore head (raptor or T-rex, non-specific), long-neck herbivore in profile, & winged. Anything more specific than that should probably be expressed with, y'know, WORDS. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.221.87|108.162.221.87]] 07:35, 30 August 2016 (UTC)
:Words? Weird concept ;) [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 07:47, 30 August 2016 (UTC)

There is a good amount of detail regarding why/how the Unicode people are arguing over Emojis (In reference to the title text) but there is not much information provided regarding what Randall is referring to in the main strip, e.g. an example of what kind of language regulations the Unicode group try to impose. While the current explanation does a good job of explaining why there is a lot of drama regarding a Brontosaurus Emoji, the meat and potatoes of the article is in reference to language itself. I have never encountered anyone trying to communicate in English using letters that are not part of the current alphabet. Since English uses predefined Roman symbols for sound representation, and the Unicode people only deal with the representation of symbols, I am having a difficult time comprehending how the group in charge of rendering English into text would have any part in the changes that (at least English) is undergoing (which are largely related to spelling and grammar, not the symbols itself). [[User:Snowblinded|Snowblinded]] ([[User talk:Snowblinded|talk]]) 08:19, 30 August 2016 (UTC)

1704: Gnome Ann

2016-07-08T04:53:43Z

Snowblinded: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1704
| date = July 8, 2016
| title = Gnome Ann
| image = gnome_ann.png
| titletext = In the words of Andrew Johnson, if I am to be shot at, I want Gnome Ann to be in the way of the bullet.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete}}
This comic presents a series of images depicting a female Gnome who is known as "Gnome Anne". The humor derives from the fact that the name "Gnome Ann" and the compound noun "No Man" are homophones, meaning they sound alike but have different meanings and spellings.

Randall presents the reader with six images (and a title text) captioned with quotations from a wide range of sources, each featuring an instance of the compound noun "no man" being replaced by "Gnome Ann" (and featuring a drawing that reflects this change). There is one proverb, two Biblical quotations, two literary quotations (The Cervantes quote is from Don Quixote), one quotation from the opening of a televisions show, and a quotation from a piece of historical rhetoric in the title text.

==Transcript==
The Legend of Gnome Ann

:[At the beach, between the shoreline and a clock, "Gnome Ann" stands with her arms outstretched.]
:Proverb: Time and tide wait for Gnome Ann.

:[Gnome Ann chases 3 men to the right.]
:Proverb: The wicked flee when Gnome Ann pursueth. - Proverbs 28:1

:[Gnome Ann takes the groom's place in a wedding, shoving him to the side. The bride stands showing no reaction on the left.]
:Proverb: What therefor God hath joined together, let Gnome Ann put asunder. - Mark 10:9

:[Gnome Ann wisely meditates on a rock.]
:Quote: Time ripens all things; Gnome Ann is born wise. - Miguel De Cervantes

:[The Enterprise flies to the right, chasing a smaller craft.]
:Enterprise: Our Mission: to boldly go where Gnome Ann has gone before.

:[Sauron stands to the left of Gnome Ann, who is preparing to stab him with a sword.]
:Sauron: Fool! No man can kill me.
:Gnome Ann: I AM GNOME ANN!

{{comic discussion}}

1521: Sword in the Stone

2015-05-06T09:57:59Z

Snowblinded: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1521
| date = May 6, 2015
| title = Sword in the Stone
| image = sword in the stone.png
| titletext = That seems like an awful lot of hassle when all I wanted was a cool sword.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|New page}}

This comic references the fables of {{w|King Arthur}} and the {{w|Knights of the Round Table}}. In Arthurian legend, whoever can remove the Sword in the Stone is the lawful king of {{w|England}}. Arthur is an orphan being raised in secret; he notices the sword, removes it, and is proclaimed king. The sword is sometimes identified as Excalibur, although in other versions Excalibur was acquired by King Arthur from the {{w|Lady of the Lake}}. The most familiar version of this story is {{w|The Sword in the Stone}} by {{w|T. H. White}} which is based on {{w|Le Morte d'Arthur}} by {{w|Sir Thomas Malory}}. Traditional Arthurian Legend states the sword can only be retreived by "{{w|List of English monarchs|the true king}}", so a woman retreiving it is unexpected. But Randall likes to debunk sexist stereotypes.

[[Megan]] pulls out {{w|Excalibur#Excalibur_and_the_Sword_in_the_Stone|The Sword in the Stone}}. A flash of light comes down and music plays, and a heavenly voice tells her she is heir to the throne of England. Megan then pulls out her phone, which is very much unlike the Medieval King Arthur and searches on Wikipedia for England and begins to replace the sword into the rock. The title text furthers this plot, having Megan comment on the hassle when the only thing she was interested in was the sword. Apparently Megan is not enthusiastic about power, and her choice is made when she sees how awful England is as a country to reign over.

A key element of the joke is what Randall implies Megan would see when she searched for information on England, especially information concerning being an English ruler. English history is rife with monarchic strife, and a brief inquiry into [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_monarchs_of_the_British_Isles_by_cause_of_death the percentage of British rulers who died in battle or as a result of political intrique vs those who died of natural causes] would quickly lead most sane people to conclude that the risks associated with ruling England far outweigh the benefits. From the time of the Roman Empire all the way up to Charles II's reclamation of the throne, England was one of the most contested and most difficult to hold chunks of real estate on the planet. Besides the constant threat of usurpation, as evidenced by the numerous wars for the crown, such as the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_conquest_of_England Norman Conquest] and the [http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wars_of_the_Roses War of the Roses], there were also constant difficulties in managing the frontier regions. This can be seen in [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadrian's_Wall Hadrian's Wall], a creation of the titular Roman Emperor designed to keep the ever difficult Scots out of the areas of Roman control (the Scots would be a constant problem for England up until the reign of King James; think of Braveheart for a good example of the regular headaches they caused), as well as the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Anglo-Welsh_Wars Welsh uprisings] that occurred with such consistency that you could set your watch to them.

It should be noted that in Arthurian Legend, it is stated that Arthur would return when England most needed him. It is possible that Megan is the reincarnation of Arthur.

The timing of this comic might be a pun on the excitement of the yellow press about the birth of princess {{w|Princess_Charlotte_of_Cambridge|Charlotte Elizabeth Diana}} this week and the burden of a royal of having a whole life in public shaking hands of strangers.

==Transcript==

:[Megan walks up to The Sword in the Stone]
:[Megan tries to pull out The Sword in the Stone]
:[A flash of light and music plays as she removes The Sword in the Stone]
:Heavenly voice: The Throne of England is yours
:Megan: Wikipedia. England.
:[Megan starts to place The Sword of the Stone back into the stone]

{{comic discussion}}


[[Category:Wikipedia]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]

1521: Sword in the Stone

2015-05-06T09:57:08Z

Snowblinded: /* Information about the implications of Megans search for English history */

{{comic
| number = 1521
| date = May 6, 2015
| title = Sword in the Stone
| image = sword in the stone.png
| titletext = That seems like an awful lot of hassle when all I wanted was a cool sword.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|New page}}

This comic references the fables of {{w|King Arthur}} and the {{w|Knights of the Round Table}}. In Arthurian legend, whoever can remove the Sword in the Stone is the lawful king of {{w|England}}. Arthur is an orphan being raised in secret; he notices the sword, removes it, and is proclaimed king. The sword is sometimes identified as Excalibur, although in other versions Excalibur was acquired by King Arthur from the {{w|Lady of the Lake}}. The most familiar version of this story is {{w|The Sword in the Stone}} by {{w|T. H. White}} which is based on {{w|Le Morte d'Arthur}} by {{w|Sir Thomas Malory}}. Traditional Arthurian Legend states the sword can only be retreived by "{{w|List of English monarchs|the true king}}", so a woman retreiving it is unexpected. But Randall likes to debunk sexist stereotypes.

[[Megan]] pulls out {{w|Excalibur#Excalibur_and_the_Sword_in_the_Stone|The Sword in the Stone}}. A flash of light comes down and music plays, and a heavenly voice tells her she is heir to the throne of England. Megan then pulls out her phone, which is very much unlike the Medieval King Arthur and searches on Wikipedia for England and begins to replace the sword into the rock. The title text furthers this plot, having Megan comment on the hassle when the only thing she was interested in was the sword. Apparently Megan is not enthusiastic about power, and her choice is made when she sees how awful England is as a country to reign over.

A key element of the joke is what Randall implies Megan would see when she searched for information on England, especially information concerning being an English ruler. English history is rife with monarchic strife, and a brief inquiry into [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_monarchs_of_the_British_Isles_by_cause_of_death the percentage of British rulers who died in battle or as a result of political intrique vs those who died of natural causes] would quickly lead most sane people to conclude that the risks associated with ruling England far outweigh the benefits. From the time of the Roman Empire all the way up to Charles II's reclamation of the throne, England was one of the most contested and most difficult to hold chunks of real estate on the planet. Besides the constant threat of usurpation, as evidenced by the numerous wars for the crown, such as the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_conquest_of_England Norman Conquest] and the [http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wars_of_the_Roses War of the Roses], there were also constant difficulties in managing the frontier regions. This can be seen in [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadrian's_Wall Hadrian's Wall], a creation of the titular Roman Emperor designed to keep the ever difficult Scots out of the areas of Roman control (the Scots would be a constant problem for England up until the reign of King James; think of Braveheart for a good example of the regular headaches they caused), as well as the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Anglo-Welsh_Wars Welsh uprisings] that occurred with such consistency that you could set your watch to them.
It should be noted that in Arthurian Legend, it is stated that Arthur would return when England most needed him. It is possible that Megan is the reincarnation of Arthur.

The timing of this comic might be a pun on the excitement of the yellow press about the birth of princess {{w|Princess_Charlotte_of_Cambridge|Charlotte Elizabeth Diana}} this week and the burden of a royal of having a whole life in public shaking hands of strangers.

==Transcript==

:[Megan walks up to The Sword in the Stone]
:[Megan tries to pull out The Sword in the Stone]
:[A flash of light and music plays as she removes The Sword in the Stone]
:Heavenly voice: The Throne of England is yours
:Megan: Wikipedia. England.
:[Megan starts to place The Sword of the Stone back into the stone]

{{comic discussion}}


[[Category:Wikipedia]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]

1497: New Products

2015-03-11T19:40:47Z

Snowblinded: /* Added comments about the privacy spectrum the final category. I know my example is software related, but its also well known and fresh in everyone's mind. If you want to change it to a well known hardware related privacy complaint, feel free */

{{comic
| number = 1497
| date = March 11, 2015
| title = New Products
| image = new products.png
| titletext = If you ever hear "Wait, is that Kim Dotcom's new project? I'm really excited about it and already signed up, although I'm a little nervous about whether everyone should hand over control of their medical...", it's time to dig a bunker in your backyard.
}}

== Explanation ==
This comic points out an apparent paradox in product performance: Many products that are [https://www.google.com/search?q=No+wireless+Less+space+than+a+nomad+Lame criticized by techies when first announced] go on to great success, and many that are heavily hyped are total flops. The product in question may be a reference to the {{w|Apple Watch}}, which was announced around the time of this comic's release.

{| class="wikitable"
! If they say...
! Explanation
|-
|"It doesn't do anything new"
|A product that "doesn't do anything new" may still be successful for a variety of reasons. It may in fact do something new that the engineers and programmers are overlooking, or it may simply be a better presentation of an older idea. This latter category is the completion of the life-cycle mentioned later in the comic, those products whose "ideas will show up in something successful."
|-
|"Why would anyone want that?"
|If engineers and programmers can't figure out why anyone would want a product, that may actually be because the applications are highly avant-garde or niche. Although then it would never become a big success! Engineers and programmers themselves may be in a niche that doesn't share the tastes and priorities of non-technical people, and are therefore unable to understand and accurately assess the appeal that a product will have to the masses.
|-
|"Really exciting"
|rowspan="2"|Products that are "really exciting" to engineers and programmers, so much so that they have already pre-ordered them, may fail to succeed for two reasons. The product could turn out to be "nerd bait," so to speak. The developers promise a cool, groundbreaking new gadget or service, and people get so excited by the idea that they ignore whether or not it's actually feasible. When the developers can't follow through, unsurprisingly, the product flops. The ideas that it proposed, which were so intriguing to the programmers and the developers, will be worth billions once someone can figure out how to realize them.
Alternately, the product could have the features advertised, but other issues can interfere with the success of the product, which engineers prioritize lower than such features in their assessment of a product's quality or utility. These may include bad marketing (the masses don't hear about or "get" how good the product is), an unintuitive design or implementation (which more technical people may be able to "live with", but the general population may not be able or willing), or something as simple as a lack of aesthetics (which decreases appeal for use by owners and may temper the fervor which might otherwise encourage further sales).
|-
|"I've already preordered one"
|-
|"Wait, are you talking about <unfamiliar person's name>'s new project?"
|If a product's developer's name is well-known among engineers and programmers, but not among the general public, that's usually not a good sign. Quite likely, the developer is someone who goes a step farther than those in the previous category, not just announcing something cool and exciting they can't follow through on, but doing so ''knowing'' that they can't follow through yet still taking people's money. The state may press criminal charges against them (for fraud or such), or the angry investors may sue to get their money back.
|-
|"I would never put <company> in charge of managing my <whatever>"
|If engineers' and programmers' only objection is that they don't like the company behind the product, that's basically a tacit admission that there's nothing else wrong with it. For the average consumer, the perks of a groundbreaking new product outweigh whatever problems they may have with the company behind it. This category also relates to the numerous privacy concerns raised about the devices and software of certain companies, and the way people tend to get riled up about these issues and then forget about them once it becomes too inconvenient. For instance, a few months ago, in the aftermath of Facebook releasing its Messenger app, it would not be uncommon to hear people say "I would never put Facebook in charge of managing my network connectivity/phone calls/camera". However, 6 months later and barely anyone is complaining anymore, and within another year or so even the most hardline of privacy advocates will probably give in.
|}

The title text imagines a product that fits into the second and third category: "Wait, is that Kim Dotcom's new project? [= third category]. I'm really excited about it and already signed up. [= both options from the second category]. It does not fit into the fourth category, since he actually already has signed up, and would thus let someone manage his medical records.

{{w|Kim Dotcom}} is a controversial entrepreneur and convicted criminal. He even {{w|Kim_Dotcom#Personal_life|changed his surname}} to Dotcom because of the {{w|Dot-com bubble|dot.com stock market bubble}} that made him a millionaire. He fits perfectly into the mould of someone well-known to programmers and engineers, but perhaps not so much to your average Joe.

According to the chart, such a product would according to 2 from above flop, and according to 3 turn out to be a scam. It will, however, not necessarily end up in control of whatever it wants to control, because as per 2 that would at least have to be another project released several years later. This does, however, still not sound good, and may even suggest the rise of some sort of malicious overtaking of our society starting when it acquires our medical records. (The people who are fooled would have handed those over by their own free will, in their excitement about this new fancy product.) Thus the suggestion to dig a bunker.

==Transcript==
:'''Predicting the success or'''
:'''failure of a new product'''
:based on what engineers and
:programmers are saying about it

:[A two-column table illustrating this. The headings are actually standing above the table.]
:{| class="wikitable alternance"
! If they say...
! It means...
|-
| "It doesn't do anything new"
|rowspan="2"|The product will be<div>
a gigantic success.
|-
| "Why would anyone want that?"
|-
| "Really exciting"
|rowspan="2"| The product will be a flop.<div>
Years later, its ideas will<div>
show up in something successful.
|-
|"I've already preorded one"
|-
| "Wait, are you talking about<div>
<unfamiliar person's name>'s<div>
new project?"
| The product could be<div>
a scam and may result<div>
in arrests or lawsuits.
|-
| "I would never put<div>
<company> in charge of<div>
managing my <whatever>."
| Within five years, they will.
|}

== Trivia ==
* There is a typo on the first upload. "Preorded" should be "preordered".

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Charts]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people‏‎]]