explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

3226: Home Solar

2026-03-31T02:41:44Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Grammar

{{comic
| number = 3226
| date = March 30, 2026
| title = Home Solar
| image = home_solar_2x.png
| imagesize = 740x258px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = "While I try to do my part to destroy the environment, I try not to focus too much on individual responsibility. By pushing for broad policy changes, we can collectively do far more damage to the biosphere than any of us could on our own."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|This page was created recently by HARMING THE ENVIRONMENT. Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
[[Black Hat]] and [[Cueball]] are outside Black Hat's house (presumably) discussing the solar panels he has recently installed on the roof. Being a [[72: Classhole|classhole]], Black Hat is attepting to live in a way as to maximize his negative impact on the environment. Cueball asks why he has done this, as he claims Black Hat has described himself as anti-renewable. Black Hat responds that, as much as he'd prefer an option that harmed the planet more, solar power is simply the cheapest option and his budget is incapable of supporting anything else.

Black Hat's words that "the technology just isn't there and the cost is too high", in panel 3, is an oft-repeated excuse for those sticking with fossil fuel use on the potential deployment of renewable energy technology, such as solar panels. When solar panel technologies were in their infancy, their costs were very high, pricing out most uses of them; but now solar panels are mass-produced, and it has become affordable for households to put solar panels on their rooftops{{Actual citation needed}}, so the excuse has lost most of its validity. Nowadays this excuse is commonly used to justify technological inertia.

Black Hat in the end claims that he can try to 'make up for this' by buying industrial waste with the saved money and burning it in his backyard. Cueball responds with a knowing comment about 'carbon onsets'. This is a play on carbon ''offsets'', certificates used for lowering one's carbon footprint. Carbon offsets represent emission reductions or captures happening elsewhere, and therefore can be used to ''offset'' emissions caused by the user of the credit. Black Hat does the reverse, causing extra environmental harm to offset (or "onset", as he calls it) the good done by him using solar panels instead of an oil furnace.

The title text is a spin on standard environmentalist slogans from the perspective of Black Hat, showing how excited he is for systematic change for the worse. Black Hat believes (and is correct in that) policy change can make a bigger difference then just him burning industrial waste.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
:[Black Hat and Cueball stand next to a house with solar panels on the roof.]
:Cueball: Wait, you got solar panels? I thought you were against renewables.
:[Zoom to show only Cueball and Black Hat.]
:Black Hat: Oh, definitely. I hate the environment and want to harm it as much as possible.
:Black Hat: I'd '''''love''''' to have an oil furnace.
:[Zoom in on Black Hat; only his head and shoulders are visible.]
:Black Hat: But the technology just isn't there and the cost is too high.
:Black Hat: I despise solar, but it makes more financial sense in my situation.
:[Zoom out to show Cueball and Black Hat again.]
:Black Hat: But with the money I'm saving, I can buy and burn industrial waste in my yard to try to make up for it.
:Cueball: Ah, yeah, carbon onsets.

{{comic discussion}}<noinclude>

3226: Home Solar

2026-03-31T02:40:14Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Internal links for the characters

{{comic
| number = 3226
| date = March 30, 2026
| title = Home Solar
| image = home_solar_2x.png
| imagesize = 740x258px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = "While I try to do my part to destroy the environment, I try not to focus too much on individual responsibility. By pushing for broad policy changes, we can collectively do far more damage to the biosphere than any of us could on our own."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|This page was created recently by HARMING THE ENVIRONMENT. Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
[[Black Hat]] and [[Cueball]] are outside Black Hat's house (presumably) discussing the solar panels he has recently installed on the roof. Being a [[72: Classhole|classhole]], Black Hat is attepting to live in a way as to maximize his negative impact on the environment. Cueball asks why he has done this, as he claims Black Hat has described himself as anti-renewable. Black Hat responds that, as much as he'd prefer an option that harmed the planet more, solar power is simply the cheapest option and his budget is incapable of supporting anything else.

Black Hat's words that "the technology just isn't there and the cost is too high", in panel 3, is an oft-repeated excuse for those sticking with fossil fuel use on the potential deployment of renewable energy technology, such as solar panels. When solar panel technologies were in their infancy, their costs were very high, pricing out most uses of them; but now solar panels are mass-produced, and it has become affordable for households to put solar panels on their rooftops{{Actual citation needed}}, so the excuse has lost most of their validity. Nowadays this excuse is commonly used to justify technological inertia.

Black Hat in the end claims that he can try to 'make up for this' by buying industrial waste with the saved money and burning it in his backyard. Cueball responds with a knowing comment about 'carbon onsets'. This is a play on carbon ''offsets'', certificates used for lowering one's carbon footprint. Carbon offsets represent emission reductions or captures happening elsewhere, and therefore can be used to ''offset'' emissions caused by the user of the credit. Black Hat does the reverse, causing extra environmental harm to offset (or "onset", as he calls it) the good done by him using solar panels instead of an oil furnace.

The title text is a spin on standard environmentalist slogans from the perspective of Black Hat, showing how excited he is for systematic change for the worse. Black Hat believes (and is correct in that) policy change can make a bigger difference then just him burning industrial waste.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
:[Black Hat and Cueball stand next to a house with solar panels on the roof.]
:Cueball: Wait, you got solar panels? I thought you were against renewables.
:[Zoom to show only Cueball and Black Hat.]
:Black Hat: Oh, definitely. I hate the environment and want to harm it as much as possible.
:Black Hat: I'd '''''love''''' to have an oil furnace.
:[Zoom in on Black Hat; only his head and shoulders are visible.]
:Black Hat: But the technology just isn't there and the cost is too high.
:Black Hat: I despise solar, but it makes more financial sense in my situation.
:[Zoom out to show Cueball and Black Hat again.]
:Black Hat: But with the money I'm saving, I can buy and burn industrial waste in my yard to try to make up for it.
:Cueball: Ah, yeah, carbon onsets.

{{comic discussion}}<noinclude>

3226: Home Solar

2026-03-31T02:38:23Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Carbon offset/"onset"

{{comic
| number = 3226
| date = March 30, 2026
| title = Home Solar
| image = home_solar_2x.png
| imagesize = 740x258px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = "While I try to do my part to destroy the environment, I try not to focus too much on individual responsibility. By pushing for broad policy changes, we can collectively do far more damage to the biosphere than any of us could on our own."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|This page was created recently by HARMING THE ENVIRONMENT. Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
Black Hat and Cueball are outside Black Hat's house (presumably) discussing the solar panels he has recently installed on the roof. Being a classhole, Black Hat is attepting to live in a way as to maximize his negative impact on the environment. Cueball asks why he has done this, as he claims Black Hat has described himself as anti-renewable. Black Hat responds that, as much as he'd prefer an option that harmed the planet more, solar power is simply the cheapest option and his budget is incapable of supporting anything else.

Black Hat's words that "the technology just isn't there and the cost is too high", in panel 3, is an oft-repeated excuse for those sticking with fossil fuel use on the potential deployment of renewable energy technology, such as solar panels. When solar panel technologies were in their infancy, their costs were very high, pricing out most uses of them; but now solar panels are mass-produced, and it has become affordable for households to put solar panels on their rooftops{{Actual citation needed}}, so the excuse has lost most of their validity. Nowadays this excuse is commonly used to justify technological inertia.

Black Hat in the end claims that he can try to 'make up for this' by buying industrial waste with the saved money and burning it in his backyard. Cueball responds with a knowing comment about 'carbon onsets'. This is a play on carbon ''offsets'', certificates used for lowering one's carbon footprint. Carbon offsets represent emission reductions or captures happening elsewhere, and therefore can be used to ''offset'' emissions caused by the user of the credit. Black Hat does the reverse, causing extra environmental harm to offset (or "onset", as he calls it) the good done by him using solar panels instead of an oil furnace.

The title text is a spin on standard environmentalist slogans from the perspective of Black Hat, showing how excited he is for systematic change for the worse. Black Hat believes (and is correct in that) policy change can make a bigger difference then just him burning industrial waste.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
:[Black Hat and Cueball stand next to a house with solar panels on the roof.]
:Cueball: Wait, you got solar panels? I thought you were against renewables.
:[Zoom to show only Cueball and Black Hat.]
:Black Hat: Oh, definitely. I hate the environment and want to harm it as much as possible.
:Black Hat: I'd '''''love''''' to have an oil furnace.
:[Zoom in on Black Hat; only his head and shoulders are visible.]
:Black Hat: But the technology just isn't there and the cost is too high.
:Black Hat: I despise solar, but it makes more financial sense in my situation.
:[Zoom out to show Cueball and Black Hat again.]
:Black Hat: But with the money I'm saving, I can buy and burn industrial waste in my yard to try to make up for it.
:Cueball: Ah, yeah, carbon onsets.

{{comic discussion}}<noinclude>

3226: Home Solar

2026-03-31T02:29:01Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ "the technology just isn't there and the cost is too high"

{{comic
| number = 3226
| date = March 30, 2026
| title = Home Solar
| image = home_solar_2x.png
| imagesize = 740x258px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = "While I try to do my part to destroy the environment, I try not to focus too much on individual responsibility. By pushing for broad policy changes, we can collectively do far more damage to the biosphere than any of us could on our own."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|This page was created recently by HARMING THE ENVIRONMENT. Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
Black Hat and Cueball are outside Black Hat's house (presumably) discussing the solar panels he has recently installed on the roof. Being a classhole, Black Hat is attepting to live in a way as to maximize his negative impact on the environment. Cueball asks why he has done this, as he claims Black Hat has described himself as anti-renewable. Black Hat responds that, as much as he'd prefer an option that harmed the planet more, solar power is simply the cheapest option and his budget is incapable of supporting anything else.

Black Hat's words that "the technology just isn't there and the cost is too high", in panel 3, is an oft-repeated excuse for those sticking with fossil fuel use on the potential deployment of renewable energy technology, such as solar panels. When solar panel technologies were in their infancy, their costs were very high, pricing out most uses of them; but now solar panels are mass-produced, and it has become affordable for households to put solar panels on their rooftops{{Actual citation needed}}, so the excuse has lost most of their validity. Nowadays this excuse is commonly used to justify technological inertia.

Black Hat in the end claims that he can try to 'make up for this' by buying industrial waste with the saved money and burning it in his backyard. Cueball responds with a knowing comment about 'carbon onsets'. This is a play on carbon ''offsets'', certificates won for lowering one's carbon footprint.

The title text is a spin on standard environmentalist slogans from the perspective of Black Hat, showing how excited he is for systematic change for the worse. Black Hat believes (and is correct in that) policy change can make a bigger difference then just him burning industrial waste.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
:[Black Hat and Cueball stand next to a house with solar panels on the roof.]
:Cueball: Wait, you got solar panels? I thought you were against renewables.
:[Zoom to show only Cueball and Black Hat.]
:Black Hat: Oh, definitely. I hate the environment and want to harm it as much as possible.
:Black Hat: I'd '''''love''''' to have an oil furnace.
:[Zoom in on Black Hat; only his head and shoulders are visible.]
:Black Hat: But the technology just isn't there and the cost is too high.
:Black Hat: I despise solar, but it makes more financial sense in my situation.
:[Zoom out to show Cueball and Black Hat again.]
:Black Hat: But with the money I'm saving, I can buy and burn industrial waste in my yard to try to make up for it.
:Cueball: Ah, yeah, carbon onsets.

{{comic discussion}}<noinclude>

Talk:3106: Farads

2025-06-25T03:11:08Z

Troy0:

Unlike other units of measure where a single unit is non-extreme, "The capacitance of the Earth's ionosphere with respect to the ground is calculated to be about 1 F." [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farad] Most capacitors in practical use are measured in pico, nano, or micro farads. 03:04, 25 June 2025 (UTC)

Please note that the pound, shown in panel 2, is not an SI unit. The corresponding SI unit is the kilogram; an item with a mass of one kilogram is still commonplace. [[User:Troy0|Troy0]] ([[User talk:Troy0|talk]]) 03:11, 25 June 2025 (UTC)

3073: Tariffs

2025-04-08T01:00:04Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Citation needed

{{comic
| number = 3073
| date = April 7, 2025
| title = Tariffs
| image = tariffs_2x.png
| imagesize = 681x809px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = [later] I don't get why our pizza slices have such terrible reviews; the geotextile-infused sauce gives the toppings incredible slope stability!
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TRADE DEFICIT - Please change this comment when editing this page. Explanation of the consequences of stopping imports (the last panel) is needed. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
Similar to [[2396: Wonder Woman 1984]], Ponytail blocked news sites to avoid spoilers about ''Avatar 2'' (officially titled ''{{w|Avatar: The Way of Water}}'') in early 2021, but did not re-enable notifications until just now. ''Avatar 2'' was released on December 16, 2022, but this means that she has missed all news since 2021, including the re-election of {{w|Donald Trump}} in 2024.

This comic is a parody of {{w|tariffs in the second Trump administration|the tariffs that Trump imposed in 2025}}, which were announced shortly before the comic's release. [[Cueball]] describes that [[Ponytail]] has a trade deficit with a pizza store.

A trade deficit occurs when party A buys more from party B than they sell to party B. As Ponytail explains, there is nothing wrong with having a trade deficit if you think you are getting your money's worth for what you are buying{{citation_needed}}. Donald Trump, the president of the United States at the time the comic released, claimed that if the U.S. has a trade deficit with another country, then the U.S. is getting ripped off and the other country must be punished. In the comic, Cueball mockingly echoes Trump's belief.

A tariff is a tax on imports from another country. Donald Trump introduced tariffs to punish countries with which the United States had a trade deficit. In the comic, Cueball proposes that Ponytail impose a tax or "tariff" on the pizza store until they start buying from Ponytail. Ponytail notes that such a tariff might encourage the pizza store to stop selling to her, which Cueball considers a victory.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.I don’t like reCAPTCHAS}}
:[Ponytail walks over to Cueball with a phone in her hand. Cueball turns away from his desk to look at her.]
:Ponytail: You know how I blocked all news sites at the start of 2021 to avoid spoilers for Avatar 2, and then forgot to start checking them again?
:Cueball: Yeah, we've been meaning to talk to you about that...

:[Ponytail stops in front of Cueball.]
:Ponytail: Well, I just checked the news for the first time, and why is the economy tanking?
:Cueball: Uh, the president is mad at other countries and imposed lots of tariffs.

:[Closeup on Ponytail's head.]
:Ponytail: Wait, who's the president now?
:Cueball: Donald Trump.
:Ponytal: ...Still??
:Cueball: No, again.

:[Pan out.]
:Ponytail: OK, fine, what's a tariff? Why is he doing this?
:Cueball: You know that pizzeria your company orders from? They don't buy anything from you, right?
:Ponytail: Why would they? We do geotechnical landscape surveys.

:[Closeup on Cueball, arms spread.]
:Cueball: Right, so they're ripping you off! ''You're'' paying ''them'' tons of money, and what are ''you'' getting for it?
:Ponytail (off-screen): I mean... pizza?
:Cueball: See? They're not helping ''your'' business at all!
:Cueball: What a ripoff!

:[Pan out. Ponytail has her hand under her chin.]
:Ponytail: What would they even buy from us? I guess we could survey a pizza...
:Cueball: Yes, perfect! You refuse to let the delivery driver past your security desk unless they Venmo you for an equivalent value of LIDAR scans.

:[Closeup on Ponytail's head.]
:Ponytail: Wouldn't they just stop taking our orders?
:Cueball (off-screen): Perfect, balance restored!

:[Pan out.]
:Ponytail: OK, but I still want pizza.
:Cueball: Can you just make one? You have all that gear.
:Ponytail: I don't think pizza made with LIDAR diodes would be very good.
:Cueball: Ugh, why is everyone so picky about toppings?

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Donald Trump]]
[[Category:Food]]
[[Category:Geology]]

2968: University Age

2024-08-06T07:54:05Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Deleted the "incomplete" tag; the "alternate" title text explanation is relevant, as if the rival university ceases to exist, its age stops counting up.

{{comic
| number = 2968
| date = August 5, 2024
| title = University Age
| image = university_age_2x.png
| imagesize = 317x388px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = This only makes it more urgent that we adopt my roadmap for the next 10 years, which should put us solidly in the lead.
}}

==Explanation==
[[Cueball]] has been the leader of a university for the last five years. And in a speech given at the university he declares that his goal during those five years has been to make his university overtake the age of the oldest university of his state, which was 215 years old when he took the helm of his university, which was then 213 years old.

He declares that an intensive program he funded he has managed to make his university five years older, thus it is now three years older than the other university was when he became head of the university.

But due to the laws of time, it of course doesn't work since increasing the university's age by five years, over five years, a rate of one year per year is, of course, the same rate that everything ages, including the rival university, which is thus of course still two years older (as it will forever be).{{citation needed}}

The final line of Cueball's speech, "Unfortunately, I have terrible news," presumably precedes the announcement that the rival university has also aged 5 years and is therefore just as far ahead as they were before.

The "intensive program" that Cueball mentions could have been and most likely was simply keeping the university open.

The roadmap for the next 10 years, mentioned in the title text's continuation of the speech, would then be more of the same, but now to make the university age be double the amount from his first five years... Sadly, for Cueball, this will also happen for the other university!

Alternatively, Cueball's strategy may involve subterfuge to cause the rival university to shutter; simply waiting for the other university to collapse; or a naive push to simply make their university so superior that the other would simply give up.

==Transcript==
:[Cueball is standing behind a lectern on a stage. He has raised a finger in the air while addressing an unseen audience.]
:Cueball: When I took the helm five years ago, our university was 213 years old – the second oldest in the state, just behind our 215 year old rival.
:Cueball: Under my leadership, we've funded an intensive program to increase our age to 218, overtaking our rival by 3.
:Cueball: Unfortunately, I have terrible news.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Public speaking]]
[[Category:Time]]

2946: 1.2 Kilofives

2024-06-15T09:09:06Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2946
| date = June 14, 2024
| title = 1.2 Kilofives
| image = 1 2 kilofives 2x.png
| imagesize = 256x342px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = 'Oh yeah? Give me 50 milliscore reasons why I should stop.'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by MICROMILLION BOTS - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Abraham Lincoln's {{w|Gettysburg Address}} features the phrase "four {{wiktionary|score#Noun|score}} and seven"‍ to refer to 87 (a score refers to the number 20). Cueball (possibly representing [[Randall]]) likes the idea of unusual ways to refer to numbers so he uses a metric prefix to state the population of the town.

{{w|Metric prefix|Metric prefixes}} can be added to a unit to scale up or down its magnitude; for example, {{w|Kilo-|"kilo-"}} increases the unit's magnitude by a factor of 1,000, so a kilometer is as long as 1,000 meters. Although metric prefixes can be added to all sorts of units, they're not ordinarily added to number words to modify their magnitude{{Citation needed}}. The expression "kilofive" to mean 5,000 is therefore unusual. Such modification of magnitude can be accomplished by adding the corresponding word, for example in this case "five thousand".

Taking "kilofive" to be a unit meaning 5,000, the population of East Hills, 6,000, can therefore be expressed as 1.2 kilofives.

In the title text, Cueball continues to annoy White Hat with his unusual ways of expressing numbers. 50 milliscore, or 50 * 1/1000 * 20, is equal to 1.

The comic might refer to the village of {{w|East Hills, New York}}. As of the 2020 census, it had a population of 7,284, or around 1.2 kilosixes.

==Trivia==
In Roman numerals, {{w|Roman_numerals#Large_numbers|symbols can be added to numerals}} to denote orders of magnitude. In this system, 1,000 might be written as CIↃ, or I with a bar above it.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball, with his palm raised, is talking to White Hat. There is a sign on the ground in the background.]
:Cueball: It's a pretty small town - the population is just 1.2 kilofives.
:[The sign reads:]
:Welcome to
:<big>East Hills</big>
:Pop. 6,000

:[Caption below the panel:]
:I don't know why Abraham Lincoln should be the only one who gets to come up with weird ways to say normal numbers.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]]

2946: 1.2 Kilofives

2024-06-15T09:08:49Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2946
| date = June 14, 2024
| title = 1.2 Kilofives
| image = 1 2 kilofives 2x.png
| imagesize = 256x342px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = 'Oh yeah? Give me 50 milliscore reasons why I should stop.'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by MICROMILLION BOTS - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Abraham Lincoln's {{w|Gettysburg Address}} features the phrase "four {{wiktionary|score#Noun|score}} and seven"‍ to refer to 87 (a score refers to the number 20). Cueball (possibly representing [[Randall]]) likes the idea of unusual ways to refer to numbers so he uses a metric prefix to state the population of the town.

{{w|Metric prefix|Metric prefixes}} can be added to a unit to scale up or down its magnitude; for example, {{w|Kilo-|"kilo-"}} increases the unit's magnitude by a factor of 1,000, so a kilometer is as long as 1,000 meters. Although metric prefixes can be added to all sorts of units, they're not ordinarily added to number words to modify their magnitude{{Citation needed}}. The expression "kilofive" to mean 5,000 is therefore unusual. Such modification of magnitude can be accomplished by adding the corresponding word, for example in this case "five thousand".

Taking "kilofive" to be a unit meaning 5,000, the population of East Hills, 6,000, or 1.2 times 5,000, can therefore be expressed as 1.2 kilofives.

In the title text, Cueball continues to annoy White Hat with his unusual ways of expressing numbers. 50 milliscore, or 50 * 1/1000 * 20, is equal to 1.

The comic might refer to the village of {{w|East Hills, New York}}. As of the 2020 census, it had a population of 7,284, or around 1.2 kilosixes.

==Trivia==
In Roman numerals, {{w|Roman_numerals#Large_numbers|symbols can be added to numerals}} to denote orders of magnitude. In this system, 1,000 might be written as CIↃ, or I with a bar above it.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball, with his palm raised, is talking to White Hat. There is a sign on the ground in the background.]
:Cueball: It's a pretty small town - the population is just 1.2 kilofives.
:[The sign reads:]
:Welcome to
:<big>East Hills</big>
:Pop. 6,000

:[Caption below the panel:]
:I don't know why Abraham Lincoln should be the only one who gets to come up with weird ways to say normal numbers.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]]

2946: 1.2 Kilofives

2024-06-15T09:00:03Z

Troy0: Roman numerals

{{comic
| number = 2946
| date = June 14, 2024
| title = 1.2 Kilofives
| image = 1 2 kilofives 2x.png
| imagesize = 256x342px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = 'Oh yeah? Give me 50 milliscore reasons why I should stop.'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by MICROMILLION BOTS - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Abraham Lincoln's {{w|Gettysburg Address}} features the phrase "four {{wiktionary|score#Noun|score}} and seven"‍ to refer to 87 (a score refers to the number 20). Cueball (possibly representing [[Randall]]) likes the idea of unusual ways to refer to numbers so he uses a metric prefix to state the population of the town.

{{w|Metric prefix|Metric prefixes}} can be added to a unit to scale up or down its magnitude; for example, {{w|Kilo-|"kilo-"}} increases the unit's magnitude by a factor of 1,000, so a kilometer is as long as 1,000 meters. Although metric prefixes can be added to all sorts of units, they're not ordinarily added to number words to modify their magnitude{{Citation needed}}. The expression "kilofive" to mean 5,000 is therefore unusual. Such modification of magnitude can be accomplished by adding the corresponding word, for example in this case "five thousand".

The population of East Hills, 6,000, or 1.2 times 5,000, can therefore be expressed as 1.2 kilofives.

In the title text, Cueball continues to annoy White Hat with his unusual ways of expressing numbers. 50 milliscore, or 50 * 1/1000 * 20, is equal to 1.

The comic might refer to the village of {{w|East Hills, New York}}. As of the 2020 census, it had a population of 7,284, or around 1.2 kilosixes.

==Trivia==
In Roman numerals, {{w|Roman_numerals#Large_numbers|symbols can be added to numerals}} to denote orders of magnitude. In this system, 1,000 might be written as CIↃ, or I with a bar above it.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball, with his palm raised, is talking to White Hat. There is a sign on the ground in the background.]
:Cueball: It's a pretty small town - the population is just 1.2 kilofives.
:[The sign reads:]
:Welcome to
:<big>East Hills</big>
:Pop. 6,000

:[Caption below the panel:]
:I don't know why Abraham Lincoln should be the only one who gets to come up with weird ways to say normal numbers.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]]

2946: 1.2 Kilofives

2024-06-15T08:55:50Z

Troy0:

{{comic
| number = 2946
| date = June 14, 2024
| title = 1.2 Kilofives
| image = 1 2 kilofives 2x.png
| imagesize = 256x342px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = 'Oh yeah? Give me 50 milliscore reasons why I should stop.'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by MICROMILLION BOTS - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Abraham Lincoln's {{w|Gettysburg Address}} features the phrase "four {{wiktionary|score#Noun|score}} and seven"‍ to refer to 87 (a score refers to the number 20). Cueball (possibly representing [[Randall]]) likes the idea of unusual ways to refer to numbers so he uses a metric prefix to state the population of the town.

{{w|Metric prefix|Metric prefixes}} can be added to a unit to scale up or down its magnitude; for example, {{w|Kilo-|"kilo-"}} increases the unit's magnitude by a factor of 1,000, so a kilometer is as long as 1,000 meters. Although metric prefixes can be added to all sorts of units, they're not ordinarily added to number words to modify their magnitude{{Citation needed}}. The expression "kilofive" to mean 5,000 is therefore unusual. Such modification of magnitude can be accomplished by adding the corresponding word, for example in this case "five thousand".

The population of East Hills, 6,000, or 1.2 times 5,000, can therefore be expressed as 1.2 kilofives.

In the title text, Cueball continues to annoy White Hat with his unusual ways of expressing numbers. 50 milliscore, or 50 * 1/1000 * 20, is equal to 1.

The comic might refer to the village of {{w|East Hills, New York}}. As of the 2020 census, it had a population of 7,284, or around 1.2 kilosixes.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball, with his palm raised, is talking to White Hat. There is a sign on the ground in the background.]
:Cueball: It's a pretty small town - the population is just 1.2 kilofives.
:[The sign reads:]
:Welcome to
:<big>East Hills</big>
:Pop. 6,000

:[Caption below the panel:]
:I don't know why Abraham Lincoln should be the only one who gets to come up with weird ways to say normal numbers.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]]

2946: 1.2 Kilofives

2024-06-15T08:52:09Z

Troy0: Explained metric prefixes

{{comic
| number = 2946
| date = June 14, 2024
| title = 1.2 Kilofives
| image = 1 2 kilofives 2x.png
| imagesize = 256x342px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = 'Oh yeah? Give me 50 milliscore reasons why I should stop.'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by MICROMILLION BOTS - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Abraham Lincoln's {{w|Gettysburg Address}} features the phrase "four {{wiktionary|score#Noun|score}} and seven"‍ to refer to 87 (a score refers to the number 20). Cueball (possibly representing [[Randall]]) likes the idea of unusual ways to refer to numbers so he uses a metric prefix to state the population of the town (1.2 * 1000 * 5 = 6,000).

{{w|Metric prefix|Metric prefixes}} can be added to a unit to scale up or down its magnitude; for example, {{w|Kilo-|"kilo-"}} increases the unit's magnitude by a factor of 1,000, so a kilometer is as long as 1,000 meters. Although metric prefixes can be added to all sorts of units, they're not ordinarily added to number words to modify their magnitude{{Citation needed}}. The expression "kilofive" to mean 5,000 is therefore unusual. Such modification of magnitude can be accomplished by adding the corresponding word, for example in this case "five thousand".

In the title text, Cueball continues to annoy White Hat with his unusual ways of expressing numbers. 50 milliscore, or 50 * 1/1000 * 20, is equal to 1.

The comic might refer to the village of {{w|East Hills, New York}}. As of the 2020 census, it had a population of 7,284, or around 1.2 kilosixes.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball, with his palm raised, is talking to White Hat. There is a sign on the ground in the background.]
:Cueball: It's a pretty small town - the population is just 1.2 kilofives.
:[The sign reads:]
:Welcome to
:<big>East Hills</big>
:Pop. 6,000

:[Caption below the panel:]
:I don't know why Abraham Lincoln should be the only one who gets to come up with weird ways to say normal numbers.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]]

2777: Noise Filter

2023-05-18T03:28:14Z

Troy0: TODO item

{{comic
| number = 2777
| date = May 17, 2023
| title = Noise Filter
| image = noise_filter_2x.png
| imagesize = 298x345px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Party Mode also enables the feature, but reverses the slider.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a 30-YEAR-OLD BOT WITH A NOISE LEVEL SEARCH - elaborate on search engines of the type demonstrated in the comic and offer examples of the noise levels shown; also why such a filter may be desirable for 30+. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic demonstrates a venue search engine, proposing that they should have a filter added to search venues by noise level "when you reach 30" (presumably referring to the user searching). The title text shows that Randall imagines a "Party Mode" which also includes this filter, but reversed, presumably so that a loud party won't disrupt a quiet restaurant.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

{{comic discussion}}

2768: Definition of e

2023-04-27T05:33:37Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ That expanation doesn't really make sense

{{comic
| number = 2768
| date = April 26, 2023
| title = Definition of e
| image = definition_of_e_2x.png
| imagesize = 571x186px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Yeah, my math teacher back in high school set up the system to try to teach us something or other, but the 100% rate was unbelievably good, so I engineered a hostile takeover of his bank and now use it to make extra cash on the side.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by 2.718 BANKERS - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
The mathematical constant ''{{w|e (mathematical constant)|e}}'' (also known as Euler's constant) is typically demonstrated in terms of compound interest. Here, Miss Lenhart seems to be setting up such an example, but is actually asking her student to deposit money.

The constant ''e'' can be described {{w|E (mathematical constant)#Compound interest|in the context of compound interest}}. For a bank account that pays interest at a rate of 100% per year, and that interest is paid ''n'' times a year and compounded, then a $1 deposit will grow to $1 * (1 + 100%/n)^n after a year. As ''n'' approaches infinity (continuous compounding), the amount approaches ''e'' dollars. In the comic, minutely compounding is used as an approximation of continuous compounding; here ''n'' = 365 * 24 * 60 = 525,600, and the resulting amount would be $2.718279.

As such, one would expect Miss Lenhart to say in panel 4 something like "you'll have ''e'' dollars". But it turns out she's just charging $1 for answering the question of what ''e'' is.

In the title text, a {{w|Takeover#Hostile|hostile takeover}} is an acquisition of a company against its management's wishes, by simply buying up its shares from its shareholders. A bank account with an {{w|APY}} of 172% is a good reason to take over a bank for{{Citation needed}}.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Hairy is seated at a classroom desk, with Miss Lenhart standing in front of him, and a chalkboard behind her.]
:Hairy: Can you explain what the constant ''e'' actually ''means''?
:Miss Lenhart: Sure.

:Miss Lenhart: I have a bank account that pays 100% annual interest, compounded every minute.

:Miss Lenhart: If you deposit $1 now,

:Miss Lenhart: I will answer your question.

[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Miss Lenhart]]
[[Category:Math]]

{{comic discussion}}

2768: Definition of e

2023-04-27T05:31:41Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Title text

{{comic
| number = 2768
| date = April 26, 2023
| title = Definition of e
| image = definition_of_e_2x.png
| imagesize = 571x186px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Yeah, my math teacher back in high school set up the system to try to teach us something or other, but the 100% rate was unbelievably good, so I engineered a hostile takeover of his bank and now use it to make extra cash on the side.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by 2.718 BANKERS - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
The mathematical constant ''{{w|e (mathematical constant)|e}}'' (also known as Euler's constant) is typically demonstrated in terms of compound interest. Here, Miss Lenhart seems to be setting up such an example, but is actually asking her student to deposit money.

The constant ''e'' can be described {{w|E (mathematical constant)#Compound interest|in the context of compound interest}}. For a bank account that pays interest at a rate of 100% per year, and that interest is paid ''n'' times a year and compounded, then a $1 deposit will grow to $1 * (1 + 100%/n)^n after a year. As ''n'' approaches infinity (continuous compounding), the amount approaches ''e'' dollars. In the comic, minutely compounding is used as an approximation of continuous compounding; here ''n'' = 365 * 24 * 60 = 525,600, and the resulting amount would be $2.718279.

As such, one would expect Miss Lenhart to say in panel 4 something like "you'll have ''e'' dollars". But it turns out she's just charging $1 for answering the question of what ''e'' is.

It is also possible that Mrs. Lenhart waited one year between the last two panels, so that when she said the words, the amount of money in the bank account would be ''e'' dollars.

In the title text, a {{w|Takeover#Hostile|hostile takeover}} is an acquisition of a company against its management's wishes, by simply buying up its shares from its shareholders. A bank account with an {{w|APY}} of 172% is a good reason to take over a bank for{{Citation needed}}.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Hairy is seated at a classroom desk, with Miss Lenhart standing in front of him, and a chalkboard behind her.]
:Hairy: Can you explain what the constant ''e'' actually ''means''?
:Miss Lenhart: Sure.

:Miss Lenhart: I have a bank account that pays 100% annual interest, compounded every minute.

:Miss Lenhart: If you deposit $1 now,

:Miss Lenhart: I will answer your question.

[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Miss Lenhart]]
[[Category:Math]]

{{comic discussion}}

2768: Definition of e

2023-04-27T05:24:49Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ A more narrow statement

{{comic
| number = 2768
| date = April 26, 2023
| title = Definition of e
| image = definition_of_e_2x.png
| imagesize = 571x186px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Yeah, my math teacher back in high school set up the system to try to teach us something or other, but the 100% rate was unbelievably good, so I engineered a hostile takeover of his bank and now use it to make extra cash on the side.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by 2.718 BANKERS - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
The mathematical constant ''{{w|e (mathematical constant)|e}}'' (also known as Euler's constant) is typically demonstrated in terms of compound interest. Here, Miss Lenhart seems to be setting up such an example, but is actually asking her student to deposit money.

The constant ''e'' can be described {{w|E (mathematical constant)#Compound interest|in the context of compound interest}}. For a bank account that pays interest at a rate of 100% per year, and that interest is paid ''n'' times a year and compounded, then a $1 deposit will grow to $1 * (1 + 100%/n)^n after a year. As ''n'' approaches infinity (continuous compounding), the amount approaches ''e'' dollars. In the comic, minutely compounding is used as an approximation of continuous compounding; here ''n'' = 365 * 24 * 60 = 525,600, and the resulting amount would be $2.718279.

As such, one would expect Miss Lenhart to say in panel 4 something like "you'll have ''e'' dollars". But it turns out she's just charging $1 for answering the question of what ''e'' is.

It is also possible that Mrs. Lenhart waited one year between the last two panels, so that when she said the words, the amount of money in the bank account would be ''e'' dollars.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Hairy is seated at a classroom desk, with Miss Lenhart standing in front of him, and a chalkboard behind her.]
:Hairy: Can you explain what the constant ''e'' actually ''means''?
:Miss Lenhart: Sure.

:Miss Lenhart: I have a bank account that pays 100% annual interest, compounded every minute.

:Miss Lenhart: If you deposit $1 now,

:Miss Lenhart: I will answer your question.

[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Miss Lenhart]]
[[Category:Math]]

{{comic discussion}}

2768: Definition of e

2023-04-27T05:22:49Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Details of compound interest

{{comic
| number = 2768
| date = April 26, 2023
| title = Definition of e
| image = definition_of_e_2x.png
| imagesize = 571x186px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Yeah, my math teacher back in high school set up the system to try to teach us something or other, but the 100% rate was unbelievably good, so I engineered a hostile takeover of his bank and now use it to make extra cash on the side.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by 2.718 BANKERS - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
The mathematical constant ''{{w|e (mathematical constant)|e}}'' (also known as Euler's constant) is typically demonstrated in terms of compound interest. Here, Miss Lenhart seems to be setting up such an example, but is actually asking her student to deposit money.

The constant ''e'' was {{w|E (mathematical constant)#Compound interest|discovered in the context of compound interest}}. For a bank account that pays interest at a rate of 100% per year, and that interest is paid ''n'' times a year and compounded, then a $1 deposit will grow to $1 * (1 + 100%/n)^n after a year. As ''n'' approaches infinity (continuous compounding), the amount approaches ''e'' dollars. In the comic, minutely compounding is used as an approximation of continuous compounding; here ''n'' = 365 * 24 * 60 = 525,600, and the resulting amount would be $2.718279.

As such, one would expect Miss Lenhart to say in panel 4 something like "you'll have ''e'' dollars". But it turns out she's just charging $1 for answering the question of what ''e'' is.

It is also possible that Mrs. Lenhart waited one year between the last two panels, so that when she said the words, the amount of money in the bank account would be ''e'' dollars.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Hairy is seated at a classroom desk, with Miss Lenhart standing in front of him, and a chalkboard behind her.]
:Hairy: Can you explain what the constant ''e'' actually ''means''?
:Miss Lenhart: Sure.

:Miss Lenhart: I have a bank account that pays 100% annual interest, compounded every minute.

:Miss Lenhart: If you deposit $1 now,

:Miss Lenhart: I will answer your question.

[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Miss Lenhart]]
[[Category:Math]]

{{comic discussion}}

Talk:2766: Helium Reserve

2023-04-23T08:26:41Z

Troy0: Marked an unsigned comment

So, uh... is the reason he can't say it out loud because he inhaled it all and the squeaky voice would give it away? [[User:LtPowers|LtPowers]] ([[User talk:LtPowers|talk]]) 12:34, 22 April 2023 (UTC)

That was my first thought. [[User:Darthpoppins|Darthpoppins]] ([[User talk:Darthpoppins|talk]]) 12:39, 22 April 2023 (UTC)

What do I say about the person who was in charge of giving me sole control of the helium reserves? I would definitely speak highly of him! [[Special:Contributions/172.70.90.252|172.70.90.252]] 15:42, 22 April 2023 (UTC)

I think he cannot say anything loud because helium is stored in porous rock underground (here is Tom Scott's video on it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOy8Xjaa_o8) and it is embarrassing to say that you just pump expensive gas into the ground. not sure tho [[Special:Contributions/162.158.238.234|162.158.238.234]] 16:59, 22 April 2023 (UTC)
:Wouldn't that be just as embarassing to write down? "say out loud" clearly implies that the joke is about the squeaky voice. The last paragraph, with the "more realistic explanation", seems unnecessary. [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 21:40, 22 April 2023 (UTC)

Side note: [https://www.youtube.com/@theCodyReeder Cody's Lab] created a series of videos where he's not only using lighter-than-air gases, but also heavier-than-air gases. --[[User:JakubNarebski|JakubNarebski]] ([[User talk:JakubNarebski|talk]]) 20:50, 22 April 2023 (UTC)

I would guess the remark about the government being embarrassed has to with the sell-off of the reserve being a bit of a political football since 1996 {{unsigned ip|172.69.79.137|01:31, 23 April 2023 (UTC)}}

2717: L6 Lagrange Point

2023-01-07T02:31:23Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Moved a sentence

{{comic
| number = 2717
| date = December 27, 2022
| title = L6 Lagrange Point
| image = l6_lagrange_point_2x.png
| imagesize = 399x400px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = It's difficult to orbit L6 stably due to gravitational perturbation from Akron and Toledo.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a LANDED LAGRANGE POINT - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

In celestial mechanics, the {{w|Lagrange point}}s are points of equilibrium for small-mass objects under the influence of two massive orbiting bodies. Or in simpler terms, positions in space where objects can float motionless relative to the defining bodies.

There are five traditional Lagrange points. Two form equilateral triangles with the two massive objects (in this case the Earth and the Sun), and three more are collinear with the massive objects. The L1, L2, and L3 points are unstable, as any drifting off the point (e.g. due to the gravity of other bodies) might quickly increase the tendency to depart the area. However, there are quasi-stable {{w|Halo orbit}}s around these points, like the one used by the {{w|James Webb Space Telescope}}. The L4 and L5 points can actually retain objects stably over long periods, resulting in the Sun-Jupiter L4 and L5 points capturing the {{w|Trojan (celestial_body)|Trojan Asteroids}}.

Randall claims that a sixth Lagrange point has been discovered outside of {{w|Cleveland}}, {{w|Ohio}}. This is pretty obviously farcical,{{Citation needed}} as this would be part of the Earth and thus not gravitationally balanced between Earth and the Sun, though it is balanced by the countering forces that hold anything stable on the surface of any body: {{w|gravity}} and {{w|electromagnetism}}. The joke here is that there actually is a small village named {{w|LaGrange, Ohio|LaGrange, OH}} (population 2,595 in 2020) just outside Cleveland ([https://www.google.com/maps/place/Lagrange,+OH+44050/ map]). However, the village name is spelled with a capital G, unlike {{w|Joseph-Louis Lagrange}} after which the Lagrange points were named.

There is, however, a {{w|Lagrange,_Maine|Lagrange in Maine}}, a {{w|Lagrange,_Virginia|Lagrange in Virginia}} and a {{w|Lagrange_Township,_Bond_County,_Illinois|Lagrange Township in Illinois}} which all use the lower case g in their spelling like Joseph-Louis Lagrange. There are also {{w|https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrange_(disambiguation)|twenty-six other communities}} in the United states with a spelling of LaGrange or La Grange, as well as four in France and two in Australia with one of the three spellings. This includes {{w|La_Grange,_Texas|La Grange, Texas}} which became famous as the title of a {{w|La_Grange_(song)|ZZ Top song}}.

The title text mentions {{w|Akron}} and {{w|Toledo,_Ohio|Toledo}}, two other large cities in Ohio. It says that their gravitational influence is the reason why orbits around the LaGrange L6 are unstable. The Lagrange points are solutions for a simplified three-body system, and orbits around them may be disrupted if additional bodies such as moons or planets are close enough or massive enough to cumulatively exert significant gravitational forces over time (the Moon does factor into the Earth-Sun L1 and L2 Lagrange points, especially, but that can be accounted for in the station-keeping measures already required). Trying to orbit around a point on the ground would, of course, run into much more serious problems, {{w|lithobraking|such as the ground.}}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:Grey on white diagram of the Earth orbiting the Sun, not to scale. Earth is depicted as a circle with pale grey continents on darker grey seas, and shows a view from above the North Pole without any Arctic ice. The sun is drawn surrounded by radially symmetrical exaggerated wave pattern.
:Also in grey, approximate locations of Lagrange points 1 to 5 are marked with dots and labels: "L1" "L2" "L3" "L4" "L5".
:In black, a point on the Earth's surface within the boundary of a continent that could be North America. Also in black, an arrow pointing towards the point, and the label "L6".
:[Caption below the panel:]
:Huge space news: Astronomers have discovered a new Lagrange point just outside Cleveland.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Astronomy]]
[[Category:Science]]

2702: What If 2 Gift Guide

2022-11-24T02:48:17Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Zone of Death clarification

{{comic
| number = 2702
| date = November 23, 2022
| title = What If 2 Gift Guide
| image = what_if_2_gift_guide_2x.png
| imagesize = 500x878px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = BABIES OR LITERATURE BUT NOT BOTH: Baby shoes
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created at STEPHEN KING’S DESK - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

{| class="wikitable"
|+
|-
! Interest !! Gift Idea !! Explanation
|-
| Engineering || The platinum cylinder formerly used to identify the kilogram || This is an object of historical relevance of which only six exist, making it a very expensive or illegal gift.
|-
| Biology || The genomes of the scientists who headed the human genome project ||
|-
| Physics || A beam of neutrinos delivered through the earth by the LHC || [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutrino Neutrinos] interact very weakly with other particles, to the point that they almost always pass straight through matter completely unaffected. This means that particle accelerators can send neutrinos to any other point on Earth by aiming the particle beam into the ground, and the neutrinos pass straight through the Earth. This point is referenced in [https://what-if.xkcd.com/73/ What If? 73].
|-
| Animals || Surprise wildlife encounter (gift-wrapped box with a bobcat inside) || This is a reference to [https://bobcatinabox.com/ Bobcat in a Box], which has been referenced in previous comics. This gift would place the recipient in a perilous situation, and, although definitely a wildlife encounter, is not a good gift{{Citation needed}}.
|-
| Law || A vacation to that area of Idaho where you can commit crimes with impunity due to a court district boundary error || This refers to the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zone_of_Death_(Yellowstone) "Zone of Death"], a 50-square-mile area of Yellowstone National Park that is in the physical boundaries of Idaho, but in the legal jurisdiction of Wyoming. Because a jury in the United States must be composed of residents of the same district ''and'' state in which the crime was committed, but no one lives in this small area of a National Park, anyone who committed a crime here could not possibly receive a trial, and thus could not legally be punished for said crime in any circumstance. This is an interesting legal loophole, but going to this area does not provide any more value than hearing about it, and could scare your law-enthusiast friend.
|-
| Chemistry || A necklace of element samples whose symbols spell out the recipient's name (note: names like "Katherine" and "Brandon" may cause radiation accidents.) || Novelty necklaces are a common and innocuous gift, and using element symbols in place of the same letter is a common gimmick, such as in the title of Breaking Bad. However, making an object out of whatever element sample corresponds to someone's name could have unpredictable results - some elements in their pure form are too brittle or have too low a melting point for such an application, and some are unsafe. "Katherine" would be made from Potassium, Astatine (rare, '''radioactive''' and has a short half-life), Hydrogen (gaseous at room temperature), Erbium, Iodine (sublimes into a gas at room temperature), and Neon (gaseous at room temperature). "Brandon" would be made from Boron, Radium '''radioactive''', Neodymium, Oxygen (gaseous at room temperature), and Nitrogen (gaseous at room temperature).
|-
| Puzzles || Two goats and a new car || This is a reference to the the Monty Hall problem. This gift places the recipient within a puzzle which is typically discussed hypothetically, rather than happening in real life. Although a new car is a ''great'' gift, two goats are only useful to people with specific professions. The problem that the recipient would have would likely be how to transport the two goats - it'd be difficult to fit both into a compact car at once, but one can't be left behind unattended.
|-
| Technology || Cybiko® Wireless Handheld Computer For Teens (2000) || This device was referenced in [https://xkcd.com/2699/ one of last week's comics], so Randall seems to have a temporary fixation on it. While an interesting example of the history of communication technology and coming from a time when experimentation was common and standards were few, it isn't very useful now, because it is no longer supported, has a communication range of 100 meters (sending text messages via radio) and one can only use it to communicate with users of the same device. However, technology enthusiasts could find it interesting as a collectors' item, so by all means it is one of the most plausible gift ideas on this list.
|-
| Space || Webb telescope personal photoshoot || The Webb telescope belongs to NASA, the ESA and the CSA, and is currently very far from Earth. It is designed to capture massive space objects in previously unseen detail, and thus doesn't operate well on the scale of an individual person, assuming that that is what photoshoot implies. These circumstances make it both an impossible and impractical gift. Furthermore, unless the recipient of the gift is able to travel a long way from Earth, Webb would have to point at the warm Earth and expose its optics to the Sun, permanently crippling the telescope.[https://webb.nasa.gov/content/about/faqs/faqLite.html This is forbidden by NASA.] On the other hand, a gift experience of being allowed to use a [https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10442913/James-Webb-Space-Telescope-seen-Earth-settles-orbit.html robotic telescope] to take your own snapshot of Webb in position might be an attractive gift to a space enthusiast!
|-
| Literature || Stephen King's writing desk (he's still using it so you'll have to fight him) || Stephen King is an author lucky enough to have legendary status while still alive. The desk of an author that has died would become an object of historic significance and would likely be either kept for exhibition or auctioned by their respective estate, but as Stephen King still writes, his desk, while valuable, cannot be subjected to the same.
|-
| Philosophy || Out-of-control trolley || This is another gift that places the recipient in the situations that they like discussing hypothetically. This refers to the trolley problem, which places stress on the person forced to make the decision, and exists to make them examine their morals. Facing someone with the hypothetical problem is already not a good gift, but forcing them to live through it in real life is a terrible gift{{Citation needed}}.
|-
| Psychology || A nice gift with a note saying you don't expect anything in return || This is perhaps the most viable option on this list. This gift plays a psychological game on the recipient, reminding them of the nature of favors and bringing giving something into return into the question. This would cause them stress, making it a bad gift, but a psychologist would hopefully understand it to be a joke.
|-
| (Title text) BABIES OR LITERATURE BUT NOT BOTH|| Baby shoes || This is a reference to the six-word story [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_sale:_baby_shoes,_never_worn For sale: baby shoes, never worn] which is often attributed to Ernest Hemingway. Someone who likes babies could enjoy baby shoes in their own right. Someone interested in literature would see the reference to a famous work. But someone who understands the reference would possibly also be sad if they simultaneously actually liked babies (since the story implies the seller was expecting a baby but there was an accident).
|}

''[https://xkcd.com/what-if-2/ What if? 2]'' is a book by [[Randall Munroe]], author of xkcd.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

What If? 2 Gift Guide

What if? 2 makes a good gift for anyone who's into science, absurd ideas, or just the universe in general. To order, go to xkcd.com/whatif2, or just type "what if 2" into some random box on your device; it will probably work.

Here are some other gift ideas for hard-to-shop-for science enthusiasts:

Interest - Gift Idea

Engineering - The platinum cylinder formerly used to define the kilogram 
Biology - The genomes of the scientists who headed the human genome project 
Physics - A beam of neutrinos delivered through the earth by the LHC 
Animals - Surprise wildlife encounter (gift-wrapped box with a bobcat inside) 
Law - A vacation to that area of Idaho where you can commit crimes with impunity due to a court district boundary error 
Chemistry - A necklace of element samples whose symbols spell out the recipient's name (note: names like "Katherine" and "Brandon" may cause radiation accidents.) 
Puzzles - Two goats and a new car 
Technology - Cybiko® Wireless Handheld Computer for Teens (2000) 
Space - Webb telescope personal photoshoot 
Literature - Stephen King's writing desk (he's still using it so you'll have to fight him) 
Philosophy - Out-of-control trolley 
Psychology - A nice gift with a note saying you don't expect anything in return. 

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Book promotion]]

936: Password Strength

2022-10-20T02:44:36Z

Troy0: /* People who don't understand information theory and security */ Caps / no caps is still worth one bit

{{comic
| number = 936
| date = August 10, 2011
| title = Password Strength
| image = password strength.png
| titletext = To anyone who understands information theory and security and is in an infuriating argument with someone who does not (possibly involving mixed case), I sincerely apologize.
}}

==Explanation==
This comic says that a password such as "Tr0ub4dor&3" is bad because it is easy for password cracking software and hard for humans to remember, leading to insecure practices like writing the password down on a post-it attached to the monitor. On the other hand, a password such as "correct horse battery staple" is hard for computers to guess due to having more entropy but quite easy for humans to remember.

{{w|Entropy (information theory)|Entropy}} is a measure of "uncertainty" in an outcome. In this context, it can be thought of as a value representing how unpredictable the next character of a password is. It is calculated as ''log2(a^b)'' where ''a'' is the number of allowed symbols and ''b'' is its length.

A truly random string of length 11 (not like "Tr0ub4dor&3", but more like "J4I/tyJ&Acy") has log2(94^11) = 72.1 bits, with 94 being the total number of letters, numbers, and symbols one can choose. However the comic shows that "Tr0ub4dor&3" has only 28 bits of entropy. This is because the password follows a simple pattern of a dictionary word + a couple extra numbers or symbols, hence the entropy calculation is more appropriately expressed with log2(65000*94*94), with 65000 representing a rough estimate of all dictionary words people are likely to choose. (For related info, see https://what-if.xkcd.com/34/).

Another way of selecting a password is to have 2048 "symbols" (common words) and select only 4 of those symbols. log2(2048^4) = 44 bits, much better than 28. Using such symbols was again visited in one of the tips in [[1820: Security Advice]].

It is absolutely true that people make passwords hard to remember because they think they are "safer", and it is certainly true that length, all other things being equal, tends to make for very strong passwords and this can be confirmed by using [http://rumkin.com/tools/password/passchk.php rumkin.com's password strength checker]. Even if the individual characters are all limited to [a-z], the exponent implied in "we added another lowercase character, so multiply by 26 again" tends to dominate the results.

In addition to being easier to remember, long strings of lowercase characters are also easier to type on smartphones and {{w|Virtual keyboard|soft keyboards}}.

xkcd's password generation scheme requires the user to have a list of 2048 common words (log2(2048) = 11). For any attack we must assume that the attacker knows our password generation algorithm, but not the exact password. In this case the attacker knows the 2048 words, and knows that we selected 4 words, but not which words. The number of combinations of 4 words from this list of words is (211)4 = 244, i.e. 44 bits. For comparison, the [http://world.std.com/~reinhold/dicewarefaq.html#calculatingentropy entropy offered by Diceware's 7776 word list is 13 bits per word]. If the attacker doesn't know the algorithm used, and only knows that lowercase letters are selected, the "common words" password would take even longer to crack than depicted. 25 ''random'' lowercase characters would have [http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=log2%2826^25%29 117 bits of entropy], vs 44 bits for the common words list.

;Example
Below there is a detailed example which shows how different rules of complexity work to generate a password with supposed 44 bits of entropy. The examples of expected passwords were generated in random.org.(*)

If ''n'' is the number of symbols and ''L'' is the length of the password, then ''L'' = 44 / log2(n).

{|class="wikitable"
!Symbols
!Number of symbols
!Minimum length
!colspan="2"|Examples of expected passwords
!Example of an actual password
!Actual bits of entropy
!Comment
|-
|a||26||9.3||mdniclapwz||jxtvesveiv||troubadorx||16+4.7 = 20.7||Extra letter to meet length requirement; log2(26) = 4.7
|-
|rowspan="2"|a 9
|rowspan="2"|36
|rowspan="2"|8.5
|rowspan="2"|qih7cbrmd
|rowspan="2"|ewpltiayq
|tr0ub4d0r||16+3=19||3 = common substitutions in the comic
|-
|troubador1||16+3.3=19.3||log2(10) = 3.3
|-
|a A||52||7.7||jAwwBYne||NeTvgcrq||Troubador||16+1=17||1 = caps? in the comic
|-
|a &||58||7.5||j.h?nv),||c/~/fg\:||troubador&||16+4=20||4 = punctuation in the comic
|-
|a A 9||62||7.3||cDe8CgAf||RONygLMi||Tr0ub4d0r||16+1+3=20||1 = caps?; 3 = common substitutions
|-
|a 9 &||68||7.2||_@~"#^.2||un$l|!f]||tr0ub4d0r&||16+3+4=23||3 = common substitutions; 4 = punctuation
|-
|a A 9 &||94||6.7||Re-:aRo||^$rV{3?||Tr0ub4d0r&||16+1+3+4=24||1 = caps?; 3 = common substitutions; 4 = punctuation
|-
|rowspan="2"|common words
|rowspan="2"|2048
|rowspan="2"|4
|rowspan="2"|reasonableretailsometimespossibly
|rowspan="2"|constantyieldspecifypriority||reasonableretailsometimespossibly||11×4=44||Go to random.org and select 4 random integers between 1 and 2048; then go to your list of common words
|-
|correcthorsebatterystaple
|1
|Thanks to this comic, this is now one of the first passwords a hacker will try. The only entropy left is a boolean statement: "Is this password correcthorsebatterystaple, yes or no?"
|}

:a = lowercase letters
:A = uppercase letters
:9 = digits
:& = the 32 special characters in an American keyboard; Randall assumes only the 16 most common characters are used in practice (4 bits)

:(*) The use of random.org explains why <code>jAwwBYne</code> has two consecutive w's, why <code>Re-:aRo</code> has two R's, why <code>_@~"#^.2</code> has no letters, why <code>ewpltiayq</code> has no numbers, why "constant yield" is part of a password, etc. A human would have attempted at passwords that looked random.

==People who don't understand information theory and security==

The title text likely refers to the fact that this comic could cause people who understand information theory and agree with the message of the comic to get into an infuriating argument with people who do not — and disagree with the comic.

If you're confused, don't worry; you're in good company; even security "experts" don't understand the comic:

* Bruce Schneier thinks that dictionary attacks make this method "obsolete", despite the comic ''assuming'' perfect knowledge of the user's dictionary from the get-go. He advocates his own low-entropy "first letters of common plain English phrases" method instead: [https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2014/03/choosing_secure_1.html#!s!xkcd Schneier original article] and rebuttals: [https://web.archive.org/web/20160305001236/http://robinmessage.com/2014/03/why-bruce-schneier-is-wrong-about-passwords/ 1] [http://security.stackexchange.com/a/62881/10616 2] [http://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/1yxgqo/bruce_schneier_on_choosing_a_secure_password/cfp2z9k 3] [http://www.reddit.com/r/YouShouldKnow/comments/232uch/ysk_how_to_properly_choose_a_secure_password_the/cgte7lp 4] [http://www.reddit.com/r/YouShouldKnow/comments/232uch/ysk_how_to_properly_choose_a_secure_password_the/cgszp62 5] [http://www.reddit.com/r/YouShouldKnow/comments/232uch/ysk_how_to_properly_choose_a_secure_password_the/cgt6ohq 6]
* Steve Gibson basically gets it, but calculates entropy incorrectly in order to promote his own method and upper-bound password-checking tool: [https://www.grc.com/sn/sn-313.htm#!s!math%20is%20wrong Steve Gibson Security Now transcript] and [https://subrabbit.wordpress.com/2011/08/26/how-much-entropy-in-that-password/ rebuttal]
* Computer security consultant Mark Burnett ''almost'' understands the comic, but then advocates adding numerals and other crud to make passphrases less memorable, which completely defeats the point (that it is human-friendly) in the first place: [https://web.archive.org/web/20150319220514/https://xato.net/passwords/analyzing-the-xkcd-comic/ Analyzing the XKCD Passphrase Comic]
* Ken Grady incorrectly thinks that user-selected sentences like "I have really bright children" have the same entropy as randomly-selected words: [https://www.hellersearch.com/blog/bid/141527/is-your-password-policy-stupid Is Your Password Policy Stupid?]
* Diogo Mónica is correct that a truly random 8-character string is still stronger than a truly random 4-word string (52.4 vs 44), but doesn't understand that the words have to be truly random, not user-selected phrases like "let me in facebook": [https://diogomonica.com/posts/password-security-why-the-horse-battery-staple-is-not-correct/ Password Security: Why the horse battery staple is not correct]
* Ken Munro confuses entropy with permutations and undermines his own argument that "correct horse battery staple" is weak due to dictionary attacks by giving an example "strong" password that still consists of English words. He also doesn't realize that using capital letters in predictable places (first letter of every word) only not increases password strength by a bit (figuratively and literally): [https://www.pentestpartners.com/security-blog/correcthorsebatterystaple-isnt-a-good-password-heres-why/ CorrectHorseBatteryStaple isn’t a good password. Here’s why.]

Sigh. 🤦‍♂️

==Transcript==
:The comic illustrates the relative strength of passwords assuming basic knowledge of the system used to generate them.
:A set of boxes is used to indicate how many bits of entropy a section of the password provides.
:The comic is laid out with 6 panels arranged in a 3x2 grid.
:On each row, the first panel explains the breakdown of a password, the second panel shows how long it would take for a computer to guess, and the third panel provides an example scene showing someone trying to remember the password.

:[The password "Tr0ub4dor&3" is shown in the center of the panel. A line from each annotation indicates the word section the comment applies to.]

:Uncommon (non-gibberish) base word
:[Highlighting the base word - 16 bits of entropy.]
:Caps?
:[Highlighting the first letter - 1 bit of entropy.]
:Common Substitutions
:[Highlighting the letters 'a' (substituted by '4') and both 'o's (the first of which is substituted by '0') - 3 bits of entropy.]
:Punctuation
:[Highlighting the symbol appended to the word - 4 bits of entropy.]
:Numeral
:[Highlighting the number appended to the word - 3 bits of entropy.]
:Order unknown
:[Highlighting the appended characters - 1 bit of entropy.]
:(You can add a few more bits to account for the fact that this is only one of a few common formats.)

:~28 bits of entropy
:228 = 3 days at 1000 guesses/sec
:(Plausible attack on a weak remote web service. Yes, cracking a stolen hash is faster, but it's not what the average user should worry about.)
:Difficulty to guess: Easy

:[Cueball stands scratching his head trying to remember the password.]
:Cueball: Was it trombone? No, Troubador. And one of the O's was a zero?
:Cueball: And there was some symbol...
:Difficulty to remember: Hard

:[The passphrase "correct horse battery staple" is shown in the center of the panel.]
:Four random common words {Each word has 11 bits of entropy.}

:~52 bits of entropy
:244 = 550 years at 1000 guesses/sec
:Difficulty to guess: Hard

:[Cueball is thinking, in his thought bubble a horse is standing to one side talking to an off-screen observer. An arrow points to a staple attached to the side of a battery.]
:Horse: That's a battery staple.
:Observer: ''Correct!''
:Difficulty to remember: You've already memorized it

:Through 20 years of effort, we've successfully trained everyone to use passwords that are hard for humans to remember, but easy for computers to guess.

==External links==
*An [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Request_for_Comments RFC], RFC7997 ''The Use of Non-ASCII Characters in RFCs'', uses "Correct Horse Battery Staple" in ''Table 3: A sample of legal passwords'' on page 10. [https://www.rfc-editor.org/rfc/pdfrfc/rfc7997.txt.pdf#page=10]
*Some info was used from the highest voted answer given to the question of "how accurate is this XKCD comic" at StackExchange [http://security.stackexchange.com/questions/6095/xkcd-936-short-complex-password-or-long-dictionary-passphrase].
*Similarly, a question of "how right this comic is" was made at AskMetaFilter [http://ask.metafilter.com/193052/Oh-Randall-you-do-confound-me-so] and [[Randall]] responded [http://ask.metafilter.com/193052/Oh-Randall-you-do-confound-me-so#2779020 there].
*Also the Wikipedia article on '{{w|Passphrase}}' is useful.
*In case you missed it in the explanation, GRC's Steve Gibson has a fantastic page [https://www.grc.com/haystack.htm] about this (and may have prompted this comic, as his podcast [http://www.grc.com/sn/sn-303.htm] about this was posted the month before this comic).
* This comic inspired [http://blog.acolyer.org/2015/10/29/how-to-memorize-a-random-60-bit-string/ How to memorize a random 60-bit string] scientific paper (link is to the article about paper, with paper itself linked)
* [https://github.com/dropbox/zxcvbn zxcvbn password strength estimator] thanks this comic for the inspiration in acknowledgements.
* CMU paper: [http://cups.cs.cmu.edu/soups/2012/proceedings/a7_Shay.pdf Correct horse battery staple: Exploring the usability of system-assigned passphrases]
* [http://research.microsoft.com/pubs/265143/Microsoft_Password_Guidance.pdf Microsoft Password Guidance] (page 8)
* [http://gizmodo.com/the-guy-who-invented-those-annoying-password-rules-now-1797643987 The Guy Who Invented Those Annoying Password Rules Now Regrets Wasting Your Time], August 8, 2017 (this comic is reproduced in the article).

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Computers]]
[[Category:Psychology]]
[[Category:Computer security]]

Talk:2597: Salary Negotiation

2022-03-24T03:33:38Z

Troy0:

The second panel is me every time I haggle for something, and I have to make sure I don't end up haggling the wrong way. Or starting above my desired price when I mean to start below so that I can meet in the middle at my desired price.

[[Special:Contributions/172.70.91.36|172.70.91.36]] 23:06, 23 March 2022 (UTC)

They should offer him $61,333.33 plus a penny extra once every three years.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.107.198|162.158.107.198]] 23:31, 23 March 2022 (UTC)

Any idea how Cueball arrived at the figure of $61 1/3 thousand?--[[User:Troy0|Troy0]] ([[User talk:Troy0|talk]]) 03:33, 24 March 2022 (UTC)

2576: Control Group

2022-02-03T15:42:53Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2576
| date = February 2, 2022
| title = Control Group
| image = control_group.png
| titletext = Placeble 228 x/6 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a CONTROL GROUP - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
{{w|Wordle}} ([https://www.powerlanguage.co.uk/wordle/]) is a web-based word puzzle game that was popular when this comic was released. In the comic, [[Ponytail]] asks [[Cueball]] whether he's playing the game; Cueball replies that he isn't, because he's "in the control group".

In scientific studies, the {{w|control group}} stands in opposition to the treatment group; whereas the treatment group receives the experimental "treatment", the control group does not, instead receiving a {{w|placebo}} or nothing at all. This is done to establish a baseline—what would happen without intervention—against which the result of the experimental treatment is compared later.

When Cueball replies that he's "in the control group", this implies that Ponytail and other Wordle players are part of a "treatment" group. This implies that playing Wordle may have some long-term effect worth studying.
Jokingly this may also imply that Wordle is some sort of {{w|social experiment}}, perhaps a [https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/sociological-study-conducted-by-harvard-university sociological study conducted by Harvard]. As noted in the caption to the comic, [[Randall]] has been using this line as his new all-purpose excuse when he is not doing something. It's a clever way of saying that you're determined not to take part, as a control group requires him to avoid it.

The title text is a parody of Wordle's sharing feature, which users have been [https://twitter.com/search?q=wordle&f=live posting on Twitter] or other social media platforms to show their success or failure at the game. The title text shows a 5x6 grid, but calls it "Placeble" (a {{w|portmanteau}} of Placebo and Wordle) and has a number after it, suggesting that not only is the game a social experiment, but that a "placebo version" is being given to the control group. In the real Wordle sharing feature, the number represents the current day's game. On the date this comic was released, the Wordle website itself was on game 228, matching the number in the title text. Randall's placebo version of Wordle has blank/incorrect squares and has a score of "x/6" which is a loss in Wordle — unsuccessful after the maximum 6 tries.

==Transcript==
:[Ponytail is looking at her smartphone while she is holding in her hand, while she is talking to Cueball.]
:Ponytail: Are you playing Wordle?
:Cueball: No, I'm in the control group.

:[Caption below the panel:]
:My new all-purpose excuse for when I'm not doing something

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Portmanteau]]

1732: Earth Temperature Timeline

2022-02-01T07:33:24Z

Troy0: /* Popularity of comic */ Per 1179: ISO 8601

{{comic
| number = 1732
| date = September 12, 2016
| title = Earth Temperature Timeline
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]
| image = earth_temperature_timeline.png
| titletext = [After setting your car on fire] Listen, your car's temperature has changed before.
}}

==Explanation==
{{TOC}}
This comic is a [[:Category:Timelines|timeline]] on how the temperature has changed from 20,000 BCE (Before {{w|Common Era}}) to the present day (2016), with three predictions for the rest of the 21st century depending on what actions are taken (or not taken) to stop CO₂ emission. This comic is a direct, but much more thorough, follow up on the previous global warming comic: [[1379: 4.5 Degrees]]. By having readers scroll through millennia of slow-paced natural changes, Randall uses the comic to confront the rapid temperature rise in recent years.

Over the past 100 years, human action has produced a large amount of {{w|CO₂ emissions}}, which have caused a rise in average global temperature through the {{w|greenhouse effect}}. This is called {{w|global warming}} and is part of a {{w|climate change}}, a subject that has become a [[:Category:Climate change|recurrent subject]] on xkcd. There are still many people who claim that this is not happening, or at least that it is not caused by any human actions, called {{w|Climate change denial|climate change deniers}}. One argument of theirs is that global warming is happening for natural causes, summarized with the phrase "temperature has changed before".

This comic shows that while temperature changes have indeed occurred before, the speed of the current temperature rise is much, much faster than those measured for many previous thousands of years. The comic became so popular that [[Randall]] [[#Popularity_of_comic|postponed the release]] of his next comic to keep this one on the front page one day longer.

The temperature curve is a dotted line most of the time, but from about 1850 to 2016 the measurement data is good enough to let the curve become a solid line indicating that this is not an estimate. Before 1850 the temperature is an estimate based on the [[#Sources|sources]] given. And likewise into the future the three possible curves are also dotted to show that they are predictions, based on how seriously the population of Earth takes knowledge (and comics) like this.

Although this is a topic Randall obviously takes very seriously, and by far most of the facts fit with known history, he still includes several [[#Jokes in the comic|jokes in the comic]]. See also the [[#Table of all elements|table]] explaining each item in the comic. After the election of {{w|Donald Trump}} for president later the year of this comic's release, it is possible that Randall believes that his worst fears (as expressed by the current path at the bottom) will hold up, with the actions taken by the new president.

The title text compares the saying that "the temperature has changed before" comparing temperature changes over thousands of years to the rapid global warming over the last century with saying that the "small" changes to the temperature a car experiences over the years of normal usage should not make you worried over the rapid temperature increase that happens when someone sets your car on fire. Randall previously used this joke in [[1693: Oxidation]].

===Jokes in the comic===
* By placing the invention of the internet at 1980 in the chart, just where the temperature curve starts its most rapid increase, Randall humorously implies that the internet caused the rise in temperature.
* At 13600 BCE a glacier is shown retreating from New York because of the warm up. It is disgusted by the new changes and proclaims: ''That’s it! I’m moving to Canada!'' This is a joke on [https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/want-to-move-to-canada-if-trump-wins-not-so-fast-100658/ an idiom said by US citizens] to protest against changes in their country. As shown in the chart, the glacier takes 5000 years (13600-8400 BCE) to cross what would become the Canadian border (neither the United States nor Canada existed yet).{{citation needed}} Also, glaciers don't speak English, or any language for that matter.{{Citation needed}}
* At 13400 BCE it is mentioned that {{w|origin of the domestic dog|humans domesticate dogs}}. [[Megan]] talks to a wolf about to be tamed making a deal with it, that it can eat and sleep with the humans as long as they can yell at it for pooping indoors. This sounds like a sweet deal for the wolf until [[Cueball]] mentions that they will {{w|Dog breeding|breed}} it to be {{w|Chihuahua (dog)|very small}} and then dress it up in small {{w|Dog's fashion|costumes}}. The wolf says wait, but it is already too late...
* The {{w|Pokémon}} reference at 9000 BCE about them going extinct in North America (although Megan does proclaim that this is not a real fact). As the writing stated that ''Pokémon go extinct'' this can also be seen as a reference to a popular video game called {{w|Pokémon Go}} and hence also the comic [[1705|1705: Pokémon Go]].
* At 4500 BCE, next to "{{w|Proto-Indo-European language}} develops", [[Ponytail]] gets the idea to develop the language heavily inflected to make it difficult to remember all the verb endings for future students. This is a direct reference to the comic [[1709: Inflection]].
* The reference to the 1984 {{w|mockumentary}} about the fake rock band {{w|This Is Spinal Tap}} in conjunction with {{w|Stonehenge}} at 2200 BCE. In the movie the band ordered a giant 18 feet Stonehenge megalith but a writing mistake gives them one that is only 18 inches high.
**Another real band {{w|Nine Inch Nails}} is referenced 16000 BCE where Megan writes the band's stylized name NIИ on the wall next to [[Hairy]] who is in the process of painting the {{w|cave painting}} at {{w|Lascaux}} in France.
* Around the setting of the {{w|Iliad}} and the {{w|Odyssey}} (1200 BCE) a drawing of the {{w|Trojan Horse}} has writing on it that states: ''Not a trap''.
* Just below the previous entry also at 1200 BCE is the mentioning of the invasion of the {{w|Sea Peoples}}. This sounds so much like a reference to {{w|Mermaid|mermaids}}, often called {{w|Mermaid#One_Thousand_and_One_Nights|sea people}} that Randall feels the need to note that this invasion and these sea people is ''a real thing'' in a footnote. This is opposed to the Pokémon reference above where he notes that it is ''not a real fact''. The sea people was a seafaring confederation of groups known to have attacked ancient Egypt and other Bronze age civilizations around this time. It is widely regarded to be one of the major causes of the {{w|Late Bronze Age collapse|Bronze Age Collapse}}.
* The reference at 450 BCE compares the {{w|Battle of Thermopylae}} (also known as 300 Spartans) with the dramatized 2007 movie ''{{w|300 (film)|300}}'', but in the real world the fighting of course occurred [https://youtu.be/FCfdyroV7kc?t=12 at regular speed and with more clothing].
*There are other minor jokes but this list mentions all the major jokes.

===Table of all elements===
*Here is table including all elements in the chart with explanations including reading off temperature and year for each event from the curve.
**The year group is just an easy way to find the section.
**Element is a description mainly taken from the transcript.
**The actual year of an event has been read off more precisely on the chart.
***The central part of the element has mainly been used.
***Only rarely has ranges below 100 years been used but if a location is clearly midway between two hundred years intervals 50 year range has been used.
***Only when there are several posts close to each other has smaller range been used a few times.
**T (°C) is the number of degrees Celsius above or below the 1961-1990 average, which on this graph is set to zero, (i.e. not the number of physical degrees above or below this 0°C).
***These have been read of to 0.1°C rounding up or down. Lines have been inserted over the chart, 10 for each degree, to make this as accurate as possible.
***In a few cases where a maximum is reached 0.05°C has been used
**Explanation of each element.
{| class="wikitable"
!Year group
!Element
!Year
!T (°C)
!Explanation
|-
| rowspan="2"| 20000 BCE
| [An arrow goes from the dotted line to the central line at 0°C (representing the 1961-1990 average). In the middle of the line there is a temperature label:] 4.3°C At the start of our timeline, 22,000 years ago, Earth is 4°C colder than during the late 20th century. || 20000 BCE || -4.3 || The scale here is relative, showing the magnitude of change rather than an absolute temperature reading. As a rule, {{w|climate}} changes are compared with a 30 year interval, and the 1961-1990 average was {{w|Climate#Definition|chosen for convenience}} as the "normal" to compare temperature changes with, but any other choice of baseline would show the exact same changes. The {{w|Last glacial period}} (aka ice age) reached its {{w|Last Glacial Maximum|maximum extent}} approximately 22 to 24 thousand years ago.
|-

| {{w|Boston}} is buried under almost a mile of ice, and the {{w|glaciers}} reach as far south as {{w|New York City}}. [The Statue of Liberty is shown in front of a glacier front. [[Knit Cap]] is seen in the snowy landscape. The skyline of Boston is shown under a half a mile of ice.] || 19700 BCE || -4.3 || This shows what a difference 4 degree in global temperature means (massive effect), as opposed to four degrees on a daily weather wise scale (trivial). The Boston image is directly taken from [[1225: Ice Sheets]] about the ice age glacier coverage; it was also shown buried in ice in [[1379: 4.5 Degrees]].
|-
| rowspan="3"| 19500 BCE
| But the world is about to warm up. || 19500 BCE|| -4.3 || The warming process actually takes thousands of years, which this comic will portray down thousands of pixels to come. This is not a fast warm up, especially not compared to the one we are currently experiencing (at the bottom of the chart).
|-
| By this time, humans have already spread across {{w|Africa}}, {{w|Eurasia}}, and {{w|Australia}}. || 19300 BCE || -4.3 || {{w|Homo Sapiens}} successfully {{w|Recent_African_origin_of_modern_humans#Movement_out_of_Africa|migrated out of Africa}} somewhere between {{w|Recent_African_origin_of_modern_humans#Dating:_pre-or_post-Toba|130,000}} and {{w|Recent_African_origin_of_modern_humans#Coastal_route|70,000}} BCE.
|-
| They’ve created {{w|painting}}, {{w|pottery}}, {{w|rope}}, and {{w|Bow and arrow|bows and arrows}}, but haven’t developed {{w|writing}} or {{w|farming}}. || 19100 BCE || -4.3 || The {{w|History of painting#Pre-history|oldest known paintings}} date back to about 38,000 BCE. The {{w|Ceramic_art#History|oldest known pottery}} date back to about 20,000 BCE. The {{w|Rope#History|oldest known rope}} date back to about 26,000 BCE. The {{w|History_of_archery#Stone_Age_and_Bronze_Age_archery|oldest known arrows}} date back to about 70,000 BCE, but Randall seems to be mistaken about the bows which seems to be {{w|History_of_archery#Stone_Age_and_Bronze_Age_archery|at most 10,000 years old}}. Writing is mentioned again at 3500 BCE and farming at 10,000 BCE.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 19000 BCE
| Changes in the Earth’s orbit mean that more sunlight reaches the polar ice… || 18600 BCE || -4.2 ||{{w|Milankovitch cycles}} are repeated climate variations on a timescale of tens of millennia caused by cyclic variations in {{w|Orbital eccentricity|eccentricity}}, {{w|axial tilt}}, and {{w|precession}} of the {{w|Earth's orbit}}, which thus then determined climatic patterns on Earth. The Milankovitch cycles are referenced again around 4700 BCE.

|-
| [A line chart with a labeled Y-axis "Summer sun W/m2 at 60°N" with three labeled ticks ranging from 450-550. The curve starts up and then goes down five times and up four times ending down. There is one plateau towards the end compared to the rest of the curve where the ups and downs are quite alike.] || 18600 BCE || -4.2 || The chart shows the input of sun during summer time in the {{w|Northern hemisphere}} (at {{w|60° northern latitude}}) as the effect (W) per square meter (m2) which fluctuated in the range from 450-550 during the time shown in the chart. There is, however, no scale for the time between the peaks. This chart relates to the text about increasing sun to the polar ice in the entry above.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 18500 BCE
| [A map of the world. At the top is a light gray area covering {{w|North America}}, {{w|Greenland}} and northern {{w|Europe}} and most of the northern part of {{w|Russia}}. A similar gray area covers {{w|Antarctica}}. The gray areas are labeled as ice.] || 18300 BCE || -4.2 || This [[:Category:Maps|map]] shows where the ice covered the {{w|northern hemisphere}} (and Antarctica) during the {{w|Last Glacial Maximum}}. The continents have not moved much since then, but the lower water level caused by the amount of water bound up in the ice, can clearly be seen in several locations. For instance, the {{w|British islands}}, Greenland, and {{w|Papua New Guinea}} are connected to their respective neighboring continents. Also {{w|Alaska}} and Russia are connected through the ice sheets covering the northern part of the Earth.
|-
| rowspan="1"| 18000 BCE
| …And the ice sheets start to melt. || 17900 BCE || -4.1 || This was a slow process that takes 10,000 years. The ice is mentioned again at 13,600 and 8400 BCE.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 17500 BCE
| Temperatures have been creeping upward, but around this point, CO2 levels start to climb…|| 17300 BCE || -4.1 || Due to the release of gasses from various sources (dissolved in the ocean, trapped in {{w|permafrost}}, etc), {{w|Carbon dioxide in Earth's_atmosphere#Measuring ancient-Earth carbon dioxide concentration|atmospheric CO2 levels}} increased by 100 parts per million over a span of thousands of years. Modern civilization has added the same amount in a single century.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 17000 BCE
| …And then the warming speeds up. || 16700 BCE || -4.1 || It took 3000 years for the temperature to increase with one degree. So this sentence can be seen as sarcasm about the rate of natural climate change compared to modern {{w|anthropogenic}} (human caused) warming.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 16500 BCE
| [Cueball is standing with a spear just the right of the graph talking to a rabbit.] Cueball: Still pretty cold. || 16200 BCE || -4.0 || True, because although the temperature has risen with 0.3°C over the last 4000 years, it's still 4°C below the 1961-1990 average.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 16000 BCE
| [Megan touches the dotted line to the right of her, with Ponytail standing on the other side. The graph has finally passed the -4°C line below the 1961-1990 average.] || 15600 BCE || -3.9 || Megan is the first drawing on the left side of the curve. She seems to be pushing the temperature up.
|-
| [In the right part of the chart is an explanation of the data. Below the first two lines there are four drawings each showing possible temperature swings in reality compared to the smoothed data that represents the dotted curve of the entire chart. The dotted curve is shown in all four drawings and a thin line is shown running along it but with much more fluctuation left and right on the first two, a large spike right on the third and a large bump way right on the fourth. Above these there are two labels. The first labels is inside a bracket that covers the first three, and the last label is for the last drawing. Below is a list of sources.] Limits of this data: Short warming or cooling spikes might be “smoothed out” by these reconstructions but only if they’re small or brief enough. Possible Unlikely Reconstructions are from Shakun (2012) and Marcott (2013), scaled to Annan + Hargreaves (2013) estimate for the last glacial period. || 15600 BCE || -3.9 || This is Randall's pre-emptive response to skepticism about the accuracy of prehistoric data. {{w|Ice cores}} and similar records might miss individual year-to-year variation, but should catch sustained changes lasting many decades, which is the time scale that matters for climate. See links to the [[#Sources|sources below]].

|-
| rowspan="1"| 15500 BCE
| In what is now {{w|France}}, humans paint murals on the walls of the {{w|Lascaux}} caves [Hairy paints three animals, two with horns, and two humans, Cueball holding hand with Hairy who has a spear. On the other side of the central line Megan writes three letters, the last of which is reversed:] NIИ || 15200 BCE || -3.8 || A reference to the industrial techno band {{w|Nine Inch Nails}} as Megan writes the bands stylized name NIИ on the wall next to Hairy who is in the process of painting part of the {{w|cave paintings}} at Lascaux in France.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 15000 BCE
| Ice sheets around {{w|Alaska}} shrink, exposing a land bridge between Asia and North America [From around the bottom if this section and down to 11500 BCE the dotted curve moved steadily to the right towards warmed temperature peaking close to 1.5°C below the 1961-1990 average. Before this the temperature had not moved much away from that at the start.] || 14600 BCE || -3.5 || This land bridge is known as {{w|Beringia}}. It is mentioned again at 8300 when it disappears due to the rising seas.
|-
| rowspan="1"| 14500 BCE
| [Cueball walks right looking back at the graph behind him. Megan walks in front of him pointing further right.] Cueball: Cool. Humans reach {{w|North America}}. || 14200 BCE || -3.3 || This is approximately when the humans from {{w|Asia}} crossed the land bridge mentioned in the previous entry, from what is now {{w|Siberia}} to what is now {{w|Alaska}}. {{w|Settlement of the Americas}} occurred around the time shown in the chart, although {{w|Settlement_of_the_Americas#Chronology|it's possible}} that earlier humans did so by boat prior to the formation of the land bridge. Cueball's comment is a double entendre; it was figuratively "cool" that early people migrated this far, and the climate was literally cool compared to modern times.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 14000 BCE
| The edge of the ice withdraws from {{w|New York City}} and retreats north. || 13700 BCE || -3.1 || Even though the ice began to melt 4000 years before (at 18,000 BCE in the chart) it is first now that New York City is free of ice.
|-
| [A large glacier front speaks in a speech bubble with an arrow pointing at it. Behind is there are four peaks in the horizon and in front of it three small melting pools and some rocks on the ground.] Glacier: ''That’s it! I’m moving to Canada!'' || 13600 BCE || -3.0 || When US citizens are unhappy with changes in their country, they sometimes say they will move to Canada in protest. Here it is the glacier that is anthropomorphically unhappy with the climate changes. However this is a slow process; it crosses the Canadian border more than 5000 years later.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 13500 BCE
| Humans domesticate dogs (Date uncertain, may be much earlier) || 13400 BCE || -3.0 || See {{w|Origin of the domestic dog}}. This timeline event is not quite accurate. The first dogs differentiated from {{w|Gray wolf|wolves}} about {{w|Origin_of_the_domestic_dog#Time_of_domestication|23,500 years ago}}, but there was an event around 13500 BCE that increased the population size and may be attributable to domestication events.
|-
|| [Megan and Cueball is watching a wolf looking at them.] Megan: Okay, you can live in our homes and we’ll feed you, but we’ll still get mad if you poop on the floor. Wolf: Deal. Cueball: And we get to breed you to be tiny and dress you in little costumes. Wolf: …Wait. || 13100 BCE || -2.8 || Megan is making a deal with the wolf that it can eat and sleep with the humans as long as they can yell at it for pooping indoor. This sounds like a sweet deal for the wolf until Cueball mentions that they will {{w|Dog breeding|breed}} it to be {{w|Chihuahua (dog)|very small}} and then dress it up in small {{w|Dog's fashion|costumes}}. The wolf says wait, but it is already too late...

|-
| rowspan="2"| 13000 BCE
| {{w|Woolly Rhino}} goes extinct || 12900 BCE || -2.7 || Mainland woolly rhinos died in the {{w|Quaternary extinction event}}, but a small island population survived until {{w|Woolly_rhinoceros#Extinction|around 8000 BCE}}. Woolly rhinos likely became extinct in part due to {{w|Holocene extinction|over-hunting}}. Randall's choice of species on this chart seems to focus on animals that were greatly affected by humans, for good or ill.
|-
| {{w|Oregon}} is scoured by huge floods as glacial dams burst and lakes of meltwater flow to the sea || 12600 BCE || -2.2 || This is a reference to the {{w|Missoula Floods}} several cataclysmic floods that swept periodically across eastern {{w|Washington}} and down the {{w|Columbia River Gorge}} flooding much of eastern Washington and the {{w|Willamette Valley}} in western Oregon at the end of the last ice age. During the last {{w|deglaciation}} ice dams formed then burst several times between 13,000 and 11,000 BCE.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 12500 BCE
| Ice sheets withdraw from Chicago || 12200 BCE || -1.8 || The next step towards the Canadian border, after they left New York at 13,600 BCE.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 12000 BCE
| Humans settle {{w|Abu Hureyra}} in {{w|Syria}} || 11550 BCE || -1.6 || A well-preserved prehistoric village that existed from 11,000 to 7000 BCE (a little later than noted in the chart), allowing archaeologists to study how their culture developed.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 11500 BCE
| [An arrow on the left side of the dotted curve is pointing down along the dotted curve and to the left indicate temperature is declining again, meaning the dotted curve now moves left to colder temperatures. This only continues until 10500 BCE. It is only the second time something is noted on the left side after Megan at 16000 BCE] Temperatures start to decline, mainly in the Northern hemisphere This may be caused by changes in ocean circulation due to the floods of cold fresh meltwater flowing into the Atlantic as the North American ice sheet melts. This cooler period is called the {{w|Younger Dryas}} || 11300 BCE || -1.6 || In the Younger Dryas, the Earth cooled by almost one degree over 1000 years. There were {{w|Outburst flood#Glacial_floods_in_North_America_.288.2C000_to_15.2C000_years_ago.29|several floods}} during the end of the ice age but the most famous is the one from {{w|Lake Agassiz}}. A similar but less global effect could occur if the ice on {{w|Greenland}} melts too quickly and causes a {{w|shutdown of thermohaline circulation}}. Without the {{w|Gulf Stream}}, hot water would remain in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean instead of warming the {{w|North Atlantic}} and Europe. The movie {{w|The Day After Tomorrow}} dramatized a worse-than-worst-case version of this, happening in days instead of centuries.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 11000 BCE
| [This is the first text to the left of the dotted curve:] Humans reach {{w|Argentina}} || 10900 BCE || -1.8 || The earliest evidence of {{w|Indigenous_peoples_in_Argentina#Prehistory|humans in Argentina}}. Finally the temperature graph has risen enough that there is space to write text on the left side of the curve.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 10500 BCE
| [An arrow pointing down along the right side of the dotted curve and to the right indicate temperature is increasing again, meaning the dotted curve now moves right to hotter temperatures. This continues until 8000 BCE where it levels out just above the 1961-1990 average.] Warming resumes || 10500 BCE || -1.8 || After 1000 years of slightly decreasing temperatures the warm up of Earth resumes. Over the next 3000 years the temperature increases 2.5°C, reaching a long plateau about 0.5°C above the 1961-1990 average around 7500 BCE.
|-
| Human settlements at {{w|Jericho}} ||10050 BCE || -1.4 || The {{w|Jericho#Pre-Pottery_Neolithic.2C_c._9500_BCE|first permanent settlement}} on the site of Jericho occurred around 9500 BCE, but there is evidence of {{w|Jericho#Natufian_hunter-gatherers.2C_c._10.2C000_BCE|non permanent settlement}} during this period, when cold and drought made permanent habitation in that region difficult.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 10000 BCE
| First development of {{w|farming}} || 9750 BCE || -1.1 || This is now called the {{w|Neolithic Revolution}}, i.e. the wide-scale transition of many human cultures from a lifestyle of {{w|Hunter-gatherer|hunting and gathering}} to one of {{w|agriculture}} and settlement. The {{w|history of agriculture}} began independently in several locations with both {{w|domestication}} of animals and the farming of different {{w|cereals}}. One of the first regions to develop farming was the {{w|Fertile Crescent}}. This is also around this time that the last ice age is said to have ended.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 9500 BCE
| {{w|Saber-toothed cat}} goes extinct || 9200 BCE || -0.3 || Although one of these (Smilodon) was known as the {{w|saber-toothed tiger}}, most saber-toothed "cats" are not related to tigers, or any modern {{w|cats}} at all, but can be viewed as examples of convergent evolution. {{w|Smilodon}} became extinct around 8000 BCE, and the last Saber-toothed cat first became extinct around 7000 BCE, which does not fit very well with Randall's range. Indirectly humans may have caused the extinction of the Saber-toothed cat by over-hunting their {{w|megafauna}} prey, depriving the cats of food sources.

|-
| {{w|Horses}} disappear from {{w|North America}} || 9100 BCE || -0.2 || The {{w|evolution of the horse}} began millions of years ago in North America; early species {{w|Evolution_of_the_horse#Miocene_and_Pliocene:_true_equines|migrated across Beringia into Eurasia}} before their predecessors {{w|Evolution_of_the_horse#Pleistocene_extinctions|died out}}.

|-
| rowspan="4"| 9000 BCE
| | Last North American {{w|Pokémon}} go extinct [Cueball with a spear and Megan is looking up at this last “fact”.] Megan: That is not a real fact. || 8900 BCE || -0.1 || Pokemon are not real. This faux-extinction is likely a reference to the {{w|Pokémon Go}} game, which Randall spoofed in [[1705|1705: Pokémon Go]]. Virtual Pokémon now thrive throughout the entire world, and are most commonly found near [http://time.com/4443225/pokemon-go-affluent-white-neighborhoods-report/ affluent first world neighborhoods].

|-
| Temperatures reach modern levels || 8800 BCE || 0.0 || It took 11,200 years for the temperature to increase 4.3°C. It's possible that human-created effects will produce an equal change in a few hundred years.
|-
| Rising seas cut off the {{w|land bridge}} between North America and Asia || 8700 BCE || 0.1 || {{w|Beringia}} was freed of ice in 15,000 BCE. This is an example of what happens when the temperature rises and glaciers melt. Sea levels are rising again as ice on {{w|Greenland}} and {{w|Antarctica}} continues to melt.

|-
| {{w|Cattle}} domesticated || 8500 BCE || 0.2 || Cattle feature prominently in the comic [[1338: Land Mammals]].

|-
| rowspan="2"| 8500 BCE
| Ice sheets retreat across the Canadian border || 8400 BCE || 0.3 || Finally the glacier that began retreating from New York around 13,600 BCE succeeded in moving to Canada as it had threatened to do...
|-
| Temperatures start to level out slightly above 1961-1990 levels || 8050 BCE || 0.4 || The next 3000 years the temperature stays within 0.2°C degree of a temperature 0.5°C above the 1961-1990 average. A very long and stable period.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 8000 BCE
| [The above sentence breaks over the 8000 BCE line. From here a maximum in temperature on the chart is reached at 0.5°C above the 1961-1990 average, which will not be overtaken until 2000 CE. It stays almost constant here until 5000 BCE where a slight cooling begins.] || 8000 BCE || 0.4 || This is the only five hundred year span with no events listed fully inside. Maybe because nothing happens with the temperature.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 7500 BCE
| This warm, stable period is called the {{w|Holocene Climate Optimum}} || 7400 BCE || 0.5 || Some skeptics like to say "[http://www.skepticalscience.com/10000-years-warmer.htm it was warmer in the Holocene]." This is no longer true. Global temperature began encroaching Holocene levels in 1998, and has equaled or possibly exceeded them since 2014.
|-
| {{w|Jiahu}} settled in China || 7050 BCE || 0.5 || Jiahu is another prehistoric settlement, similar to Abu Hureyra (12000 BCE), that was extensively studied by archaeologists.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 7000 BCE
| Final collapse of the North American ice sheet leads to rapid 2-4m sea level rise… || 6800 BCE || 0.55 || The temperature almost reached 0.6°C above the 1961-1990 average before this happened and caused the slight decrease in temperature mentioned below.
|-
| [A small arrow points down and left to the right of the dotted curve. There is a small decrease in temperature but it is very small and would have been missed without the arrow and label.] …And a period of cooling in the Northern hemisphere || 6550 BCE || 0.5 || A 0.05 degree decrease in 200 years again refers to the theme of slow natural climate change.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 6500 BCE
| As seas rise to near their modern levels, Britain is cut off from mainland Europe || 6300 BCE || 0.45 || This is a reference to the flooding of {{w|Doggerland}}.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 6000 BCE
| Humans develop copper metalworking || 5600 BCE || 0.5 || The {{w|copper age}} was relatively brief before humans discovered how to make {{w|bronze}}.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 5500 BCE
| Massive volcanic eruption in {{w|Oregon}} creates crater lake || 5300 BCE || 0.55 || {{w|Crater Lake}} is the caldera at the top of Mount Mazama, a collapsed stratovolcano. If it erupted again, it could become a Somma volcano (see [[1714: Volcano Types]]).
|-
| {{w|Gold}} metalworking || 5050 BCE || 0.6 || The temperature peaks here at just a bit more than 0.6°C above the 1961-1990 average. It will not rise above this level until the global warming sets in in the 1900s.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 5000 BCE
| {{w|Invention of the wheel}} || 4900 BCE || 0.6 || Wheels are one of the most important inventions of humanity. They feature in many xkcd comics, such as [[1075: Warning]].
|-
| [To the right of the dotted curve is an arrow pointing down and slightly left. From here temperature decreases very slowly but steadily from 0.5°C above the 1961-1990 average until 1000 BCE where a stable plateau is reached around the 1961-1990 average.] Earth begins to cool slowly mainly due to regular cycles in its orbit || 4800 BCE || 0.5 || Again a reference to the {{w|Milankovitch cycles}} mentioned in detail at 18,600 BCE. Here they cause a cooling rather than a heating as they did back then.

|-
| rowspan="3"| 4500 BCE
| {{w|Proto-Indo-European language}} develops || 4400 BCE || 0.5 || Most of the languages in Europe, the Middle East, and India share a surprising number of common roots. PIE is the theoretical ancestor from which they descend. Randall mentions this language family in many comics, such as [[890: Etymology]].
|-
| [To the right of the curve Ponytail holds up a hand towards Cueball.] Ponytail: Let’s make our language heavily inflected, so future students have to memorize a zillion verb endings! Cueball: Okay! || 4400 BCE || 0.5 || Ponytail gets the idea to develop the language heavily inflected to make it difficult to remember all the verb endings for future students and Cueball is okay with that. This is a direct reference to the comic [[1709: Inflection]].
|-
| Permanent settlements in the {{w|fertile crescent}} || 4200 BCE || 0.5 || The Fertile Crescent is one of those things you're supposed to remember from grade school. A lot of historic milestones happened there, such as the pyramids of Giza, the code of Hammurabi, and the Abrahamic religions.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 4000 BCE
| Horses domesticated || 3950 BCE || 0.5 || Horse riding was the greatest advance in land travel until the invention of engines. Horses appear in many xkcd comics, such as [[936: Password Strength]].
|-
| {{w|Minoan culture}} arises on Crete || 3700 BCE || 0.5 || Minoan culture invented many strange and wonderful things, such as the Labyrinth at Knossos and {{w|Bull-leaping}}.

|-
| rowspan="4"| 3500 BCE
| {{w|Egyptian mummification}} || 3500 BCE || 0.5 || xkcd has discussed mummification in {{what if|134|What If? 134: Space Burial}}.
|-
| Rise of the {{w|Indus Valley civilization}} || 3300 BCE || 0.5 || The largest bronze-age civilization.
|-
| Invention of {{w|writing}} in {{w|Sumer}} “{{w|prehistory}}” ends, “{{w|history}}” begins || 3200 BCE || 0.5 || Our knowledge of prehistoric events must rely on digging up artifacts and making inferences. After this time, it became possible to find descriptions of past people and events, which is the definition of history. (Old guy in Sumer: Kids these days with their new-fangled stone tablets, instead of using their memory...)
|-
| Earliest human whose name we know (Pharaoh {{w|Iry-Hor}} in Egypt) || 3100 BCE || 0.5 || The first named person we know of today! This was also mentioned as a "cool fact" in the title text of [[1355: Airplane Message]].
|-
| rowspan="5"| 3000 BCE
| {{w|Three Sovereigns and Five Emperors}} period in China || 2800 BCE || 0.4 || The temperature has finally dropped below 0.5°C above the 1961-1990 average after almost 2000 years of cooling from 0.6°C above the 1961-1990 average.
|-
| {{w|Gilgamesh}} || 2700 BCE || 0.4 || Gilgamesh was probably a Sumerian king whose tales were exaggerated into mythology.
|-
| {{w|Imhotep}} || 2600 BCE || 0.4 || Imhotep was not a pharaoh, but a wise commoner who was elevated to chancellor, high priest, and post-mortem divinity.
|-
| {{w|Maya civilization|Mayan}} culture emerges || 2600 BCE || 0.4 || Like the ancient Egyptians, Mayans are remembered for pyramids and {{w|logograph}}s.
|-
| {{w|Great Pyramid}} constructed || 2650 BCE || 0.4 || xkcd has discussed pyramids in [[1717: Pyramid Honey]] and {{what if|95|What If? 95: Pryamid Energy}}.

|-
| rowspan="3"| 2500 BCE
| {{w|Corded Ware culture}} in Europe || 2500 BCE || 0.3 || The term Corded Ware was invented by an archaeologist; no civilization actually called themselves that.
|-
| [To the left of the curve two rock musicians with long hair and electrical guitars are standing on either side of a small gate made of three slabs of stone, one on top of the other two standing stones.] {{w|Stonehenge}} completed || 2200 || 0.3 || This is a reference to the 1984 {{w|mockumentary}} about the fake rock band {{w|This Is Spinal Tap}}. In the movie the band wanted a giant Stonehenge prop 18 feet high, but a writing mistake gives them one that is only 18 inches.
|-
| {{w|Chariots}} developed || 2000 BCE || 0.3 || But {{w|Chariots of Fire}} came much later.

|-
| rowspan="3"| 2000 BCE
| {{w|Alphabetic writing}} developed in Egypt || 1750 BCE || 0.2 || Obligatory reference to xkcd [[1069: Alphabet]].
|-
| Last {{w|mammoth}}s on a tiny Siberian island go extinct || 1650 BCE || 0.2 || Many of the {{w|Pleistocene megafauna}} died in the {{w|Quaternary extinction event}}. Like the {{w|woolly rhino}} (see 12900 BCE) these animals likely became extinct in part due to {{w|Holocene extinction|humans hunting them}}, which may be why Randall included them in the chart. Most of the mammoths died out before 8000 BCE but {{w|Woolly_mammoth#Extinction|some survived in remote areas}} and the last known population died on {{w|Wrangel Island}} in the {{w|Arctic Ocean}} around 2000 BCE, slightly earlier than Randall shows here.
|-
| {{w|Minoan eruption}} || 1600 BCE || 0.2 || This volcano may have led to the downfall of Minoan civilization.

|-
| rowspan="5"| 1500 BCE
| {{w|Iron smelting}} || 1400 BCE || 0.1 || The beginning of the {{w|Iron Age}}.
|-
| {{w|Olmec}} civilization develops in Central America || 1350 BCE || 0.1 || No, Maggie, not Aztec, [http://vimeo.com/34002760 Olmec].
|-
| [A Trojan horse with two Cueball-like guys in front and a third standing on its back. Its back is at three Cueball’s height and its head rises to the level of the Cueball on its back. It stands on a platform with four wheel on the visible side. There is text on the horse] Setting of the ''{{w|Iliad}}'' and the ''{{w|Odyssey}}'' Text on horse: Not a trap || 1250 BCE || 0.1 || A reference to the {{w|Trojan War}} qua the drawing of the {{w|Trojan Horse}}. The horse was a big trap letting the soldiers hidden inside it into {{w|Troy}}. This explains why it has ''Not a trap'' written on it. Else they would not have taken the giant wooden horse present from their sworn enemies into their city just like that... Note that the Trojan horse isn't mentioned in the Iliad, and only recalled in passing by the characters in the Odyssey.
|-
| Invasion of the {{w|Sea peoples}}* * A real thing || 1200 BCE || 0.1 || {{w|Mermaid#One_Thousand_and_One_Nights|Sea people}} might sound like a reference to mythical {{w|mermaid}}s, so Randall feels the need to footnote that this event was ''a real thing'' (as opposed to his Pokémon reference, which he notes is ''not a real fact''). The sea peoples were a seafaring confederation of groups known to have attacked ancient Egypt around this time.
|-
| {{w|Polynesians}} explore the Pacific Ocean || 1000 BCE || 0.1 || {{w|Polynesian navigation}} was surprisingly widespread.

|-
| rowspan="8"| 1000 BCE
| [From 1000 BBC to 1000 CE the temperature is stable and very close to the 1961-1990 average.] || 1000 BCE || 0.1 || The temperature has fallen from the Holocene Optimum by half a degree to just a bit above the the 1961-1990 average. It will stay in this range for the next 2000 years.
|-
| {{w|Solomon}} || 1000 BCE || 0.1 || Solomon may have been a real historical king, but he probably did not threaten to chop a baby in half.
|-
| {{w|Iliad}} and {{w|Odyssey}} composed || 900 BCE || 0.1 || These classic myths were written more than 300 years after their supposed events. Archaeologists believe the city of {{w|Troy}} existed (and was destroyed by war around the right time period), but characters like Helen, Odysseus, and Achilles did not.
|-
| Rise of {{w|Greek city-states}} || 800 BCE || 0.1 || This is ''Sparta'', along with Athens and several others.
|-
| {{w|Neo-Assyrian Empire}} || 800 BCE || 0.1 || Hi, you may remember us from such kings as Adad-nirari and Sennacherib.
|-
| {{w|Ancient Olympic Games|First Olympics}} || 750 BCE || 0.1 || The first of the ancient Olympic Games is traditionally dated to 776 BC.
|-
| {{w|Zapotec civilization|Zapotec}} writing in modern Mexico || 600 BCE || 0.0 || Another Central American culture that fell to the Spanish invasion.
|-
| {{w|Confucius}} || 550 BCE || 0.0 || "He who knows all the answers has not been asked all the questions."

|-
| rowspan="10"| 500 BCE
| The stuff in the {{w|300 (film)|movie ''300''}}, but regular speed and with more clothing || 450 BCE || 0.0 || A reference to the {{w|Battle of Thermopylae}} by comparison with the 2007 movie ''300'' about this battle. The real Spartans wore armor, and real humans don't [http://www.google.com/search?q=300+slow-motion fly through the air in slow motion when struck].
|-
| {{w|Buddha}} || 450 BCE || 0.0 || Randall also mentions other religious figures like {{w|Jesus}} and {{w|Muhammad}}.
|-
| {{w|Nazca Lines}} || 350 BCE || 0.0 || These huge ancient drawings are difficult to see from ground level, leading some people to believe that they were intended for aliens.
|-
| {{w|Alexander the Great}} || 350 BCE || 0.0 || One of the most successful conquerors of the iron age, known for supposedly cutting the {{w|Gordian Knot}}.
|-
| {{w|Mayan hieroglyphics}} || 250 BCE || 0.0 || The {{w|Maya Calendar}} was probably created hundreds of years later.
|-
| {{w|Ashoka the Great}} || 250 BCE || 0.0 || The {{w|Edicts of Ashoka}} proselytized Buddhism across the continent.
|-
| {{w|Paper}} invented || 200 BCE || 0.0 || A significant step up from stone tablets or even papyrus.
|-
| {{w|Asterix}} || 100 BCE || 0.0 || Fictional main character in ''The Adventures of Asterix'', a comic series set around 50 BCE when {{w|Julius Caesar}} conquered {{w|Gaul}}.
|-
| {{w| Teotihuacan|Teotihuacán}} metropolis || 100 BCE || 0.0 || Another ancient city much beloved by archaeologists, even though they don't know who built it.
|-
| {{w|Julius Caesar}} || 50 BCE || 0.0 || Aside from being a conqueror, dictator, and deity, Julius had a big impact on {{w|Julian Calendar|calendars}}. The month of Quintilis was renamed July to honor him, and he was famously assassinated on the ides (middle day) of March.
|-

|-
| rowspan="8"|1 BCE 1 CE
| [Instead of a zero, there are two numbers for each of the two scales before (1 BCE) and after Christ (1 CE)] || 0 CE || -0.1 || Originally the year range went directly from 1 BC to 1 AD. The year zero has since been added for ease of mathematical and astronomical calculations.
|-
| {{w|Roman Empire}} || 1 CE || -0.1 || Julius never held the title "Emperor"; his adoptive son Augustus was the first to do so.
|-
| {{w|Jesus}} || 1 CE || -0.1 || Randall also mentions other religious figures like {{w|Buddha}} and {{w|Muhammad}}.
|-
| [To the left and erupting volcano.] {{w|Pompeii}} || 100 CE || -0.1 || The volcano is {{w|Mount Vesuvius}} which exploded in 79 CE and is famous for burying everyone in the close by city Pompeii preserving peoples bodies inside the huge amount of ash that swallowed the city very rapidly. Today it has given the archeologist lots of knowledge about the culture of that time.
|-
| {{w|Three Kingdoms}} period || 250 CE || -0.1 || Not just a series of movies and video games, but an actual thing that happened in China.
|-
| {{w|Gupta empire}} || 700 CE || -0.1 || Not as great as Ashoka, but still a pretty important time in the history of India.
|-
| Various groups take turns sacking {{w|Rome}} || 550 CE || -0.1 || 500 years is a pretty successful span for an empire.
|-
| {{w|Attila the Hun}} || 550 CE || -0.1 || He probably would not mind being remembered as one of the most infamous barbarians in history.

|-
| rowspan="4"| 500 CE
| {{w|Muhammad}} || 600 CE || 0.0 || Randall also mentions other religious figures like {{w|Buddha}} and {{w|Jesus}}
|-
| {{w|Tang Dynasty}} || 750 CE || 0.0 || A golden age in China, responsible for the development of printing, gunpowder, and many other advances.
|-
| [An arrow to the right of the dotted curve pointing down, takes a swing far out from the curve and then bends back again. The text label next to it breaks into the next 500 period. The dotted curve stays stable at the 1961-1990 average along this arrow.] {{w|Medieval warm period}} in Europe and some northern regions (too regional to affect the global average much) || 900 CE || 0.0 || Changes in ocean currents caused various regions to warm up while others cooled.
|-
| {{w|Leif Eriksson}} || 950 CE || 0.0 || Probably the first European explorer to reach North America.

|-
| rowspan="7"| 1000 CE
| [To the left a drawing of a compass with needle pointing the black end towards north east. There are labels for the four main directions (N, S, W, E) and a label next to it:] {{w|Magnetic compass}} navigation || 1050 CE || 0.0 || It's much easier to sail to the Orient when you can orient yourself.
|-
| [The dotted curve moves to the left towards lower temperature reaching a minimum around 1650 CE of about 0.6°C below the 1961-1990 average at the {{w|Little Ice Age}}.] || 1150 CE || -0.1 || This less than half a degree drop in temperature over 500 years was enough to cause the "Little Ice Age" which resulted in extended ice coverage in the winters in instance Europe. See more below at the entry for the Little Ice Age.
|-
| {{w|Ghengis Khan}} || 1200 CE || -0.2 || Mongol emperor. {{w|Gengar}} is not named after him, but [http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Kangaskhan_(Pokémon) Kangaskhan] and [http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Khal the Khals] are.
|-
| {{w|Zheng He}}’s fleet explores Asia and Africa || 1400 CE || -0.3 || He explored farther than European contemporaries like Dias or de Gama.
|-
| {{w|Aztec Empire|Aztec Alliance}} || 1400 CE || -0.3 || Aztec dominance only lasted a century until Cortes arrived, but their cultural legacy is indisputable.
|-
| {{w|Printing press}} || 1450 CE || -0.3 || {{w|Johannes Gutenburg}} ushered in the {{w|Age of Enlightenment}}.
|-
| {{w|Christopher Columbus|Columbus}} || 1490 CE || -0.3 || The time given here references when Christopher Columbus reached the {{w|Americas|New World}} in 1492. The five events around 1500 CE lies very close together but it fits with Columbus fitted in just before 1500.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 1500 CE
| {{w|European Renaissance}} || 1500 CE || -0.3 || From here on, the chart has labels for each 100 year increment instead of 500, but the scale stays the same. Important events happens so much faster in these last five hundred years, there isn't enough space to write all of them, so Randall has had to be selective. He includes {{w|Isaac Newton}} but leaves out {{w|Albert Einstein}}, includes {{w|airplane}}s but leaves out {{w|car}}s, etc.
|-
| {{w|Shakespeare}} || 1600 CE || -0.4 || xkcd references Shakespeare many times, such as [[79: Iambic Pentameter]] and [[1026: Compare and Contrast]].

|-
| rowspan="2"| 1600
| {{w|Isaac Newton|Newton}} || 1650 CE || -0.4 || Isaac Newton appears in various xkcd comics, such as [[626: Newton and Leibniz]].
|-
| [To the right of the dotted curve there is an arrow pointing down that makes a swing in towards the curve and then back out again. This is the coldest it has been since 9500 BCE. It is labeled:] ”{{w|Little Ice Age}}” || 1650 CE || -0.4 || This was not a true geologic Ice Age, just a slightly chilly period when the temperature fell a fraction of a degree, but still colder than it had been through 11,000 years of human civilization. In Europe the winters were so cold that the river {{w|Thames}} {{w|Little_Ice_Age#Europe|froze over}} hard enough to hold {{w|River Thames frost fairs}} between 1607 and 1814. And in 1658 {{w|Sweden}} crossed the {{w|Danish Straits}} on foot to invade {{w|Copenhagen}} in the {{w|March Across the Belts}}. It was only possible due to the harsh winters of the Little Ice Age, demonstrating how much half a degree of climate change can mean.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 1700
| {{w|Steam engines}} || 1750 CE || -0.4 || The {{w|Age of Steam}} heralded the upsurge of human CO2 emissions.
|-
| {{w|United States Declaration of Independence|Unites States Independence}} || 1770 CE || -0.3 || On July 4, 1776.

|-
| rowspan="3"| 1800
| {{w|Industrial Revolution}} || 1825 CE || -0.3 || Not to be confused with {{w|Industrial music}} such as Nine Inch Nails.
|-
| {{w|Electrical telegraph|Telegraphs}} || 1830 CE || -0.3 || [https://youtu.be/gEGQUgWBQL4?t=56s -. --- .-- --..-- / - .... . / -- --- - .... . .-. / --- ..-. / ... .- -- ..- . .-.. / -- --- .-. ... . / .- .-.. .-- .- -.-- ... / ... . -. - / - .... . / .-.. .- -.. / --- ..- - / --- -. / .- / .... --- .-. ... .]
|-
| [After this the dotted curve becomes solid.] || 1850 CE || -0.3 || From 1850 weather records became sufficiently accurate and widespread to greatly improve the precision of climate measurements. Hence the curve stops being an estimate and thus also stops being a dotted curve and becomes solid.

|-
| rowspan="6"| 1900
| {{w|Airplane}}s || 1900 CE || -0.3 || xkcd discusses airplanes many times, such as [[726: Seat Selection]] and {{what if|30|30: Interplanetary Cessna}}.
|-
| {{w|World Wars}} || 1930 CE || -0.2 || Likewise, there are many xkcds on this topic, such as [[261: Regarding Mussolini]] and {{what if|100|100: WWII Films}}.
|-
| [The solid line takes a step to the right close to the 1961-1990 average. Over the rest of the 1900s it moves closer to the 1961-1990 average, crossing it before 2000 where it almost reaches the maximum temperature of 0.5 °C above the 1961-1990 average from earlier in 8000 BCE.] || 1940 CE || -0.2 || This is what the previous 14000 pixels of comic has been leading up to. After a laborious 20 millennia of gradual and meandering climate change, it should be clear that a full degree of warming in a single century is unprecedented in human history, and very unlikely to be natural variation.
|-
| {{w|Fossil fuel}} CO2 emissions start rapidly increasing || 1950 CE || -0.1 || The infamous [http://www.skepticalscience.com/Hockey-stick-or-hockey-league.html "hockey stick"] starts around here.
|-
| {{w|Nuclear weapons}} || 1950 CE || -0.1 || The Working Group on the 'Anthropocene' suggests dating the {{w|Anthropocene}} epoch from ~1950. The week after this comic [[1736: Manhattan Project]] with a mushroom cloud was released.
|-
| {{w|Internet}} || 1980 CE || 0.1 || The origin of the internet dates back to 1960 but it began growing rapidly in 1980. By placing the invention of the {{w|internet}} at 1980 in the chart, just where the temperature curve starts its most rapid increase, Randall uses this [[552: Correlation|correlation]] to humorously imply that the internet caused the rise in temperature. This is also where the temperature crosses the 1961-1990 average, which has to happen somewhere due to the {{w|Intermediate Value Theorem}}.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 2000
| {{w|Northwest Passage}} opens || 2000 CE || 0.4 || This was dramatic evidence that the climate had changed. When global warming removes enough sea ice to create shipping routes that never existed before, then it is clear to people that ''something'' is changing, even if they disregard who/what is responsible for the change.
|-
|[From here to present day the solid line increases rapidly and in 2016, present day, is almost reaches 1°C above the 1961-1990 average, with about 0.8°C above the 1961-1990 average.] || 2016 CE || 0.8 || '''Notice''': [http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php?a=11&p=2 Warming did not stop] in 1998.

|-
| rowspan="3"| 2016
| | Present day || 2016 CE || 0.8 || Today, just after the two hottest months ever measured since 1850 had ended (July and August 2016), this comic was released with the message displayed very clearly here below. Act now or fry...
|-
| [From here the curve once again becomes dotted as this is the future. After one dot it splits in two and after the first two dots another split between them occurs forming three possible future dotted curves.] || 2016 CE || 0.8 || Here stops the data and the projection into the future begins so the curve again becomes dotted. Three different scenarios are depicted.
|-
|The first curve bending down before the others, and thus to the right of the other two reaches about 1.2°C above the 1961-1990 average and then goes straight down and stops at the 2100 line. An arrow points to it from the left and a label is written partly before and the rest after the 2100 line to the left of the curve:] Best-case scenario assuming immediate massive action to limit emissions || 2100 CE || 1.2 || If humanity does all in its power to stop global warming we might be able to halt the global warming already before 2050 keeping the maximum temperature to just 1.2°C above the 1961-1990 average. Only 0.4°C above today's temperature. (Note that this is not, in fact, the absolute best-case scenario, as it assumes that no new greenhouse gasses are either added to or removed from the atmosphere in the future; the temperature rise could be kept to an even lower level if some or all of the already-emitted greenhouse gasses were removed from the atmosphere.)

|-
| rowspan="2"| 2100
| [The middle curve bends a little down after reaching 1.3°C above the 1961-1990 average, and then continues this path reaching 2°C above the 1961-1990 average in 2100. An arrow point from below to it and a label is written below the curve and below 2100 line:] Optimistic scenario|| 2100 CE || 2.0 || If all the current realistic preventions are implemented, which might not be so realistic, then we may not even stop the warming but slow it down so we "only" reach 2°C above the 1961-1990 average in 2100 CE but it would not stop there. This is half the temperature change experienced since the ice age, but the other way. This was directly referenced in the title text of [[1379: 4.5 Degrees]]: ''That's only HALF an ice age unit (IAU), which is probably no big deal.''
|-
| [The last line continues along the path from the last 16 years of the solid line reaching 4.2°C above the 1961-1990 average at 2100, almost as far on the other side of the 1961-1990 average in 150 years as it took 14,000 years to move from the other side from the start of the chart. Another arrow point to this from below with a label below the curve and below 2100 line:] Current Path || 2100 CE || 4.2 || In this last scary scenario Randall assumes the temperature keeps rising steadily by extrapolating along the slope of the last two to three years. Randall has warned about the hazards of [[Extrapolating]], but this line is in fact [http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html below the worst case predictions]. If this comes true we will reach a temperature increase taking us from the 1961-1990 average and in just 125 years to 4.2°C above this average. That is just as far above this average in that short time span as the ice age temperature was below. And it took more than 11,000 years for nature to reach such an increase. Randall already contemplated what this would be like in the +1 ice age unit (IAU) panel of [[1379: 4.5 Degrees]] two years ago, as well as in [[164: Playing Devil's Advocate to Win]] almost 10 years ago. He may get to ''enjoy quite a ride'' as he "wished" for back then.

There is no reason to assume the temperature will not keep rising past 2100 CE, so the {{w|Cretaceous Thermal Maximum|"Hothouse Earth"}} of the early {{w|Cretaceous period}} mentioned in the 4.5 degree comics +2 IAU panel might come to pass in future centuries if we continue on our current path. On the bright side, modern civilization might collapse if this trend keeps up, which would drastically cut our releases of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere. But then again, positive feedback from methane in melting {{w|permafrost}} might take over... Good luck Earth.
|}

===Sources===
The image attributes climate data sources as "Shakun et al. (2012), Marcott et al. (2013), Annan and Hargreaves (2013), HadCRUT4, IPCC":
* Shakun, Jeremy D.; Clark, Peter U.; He, Feng; Marcott, Shaun A.; Mix, Alan C.; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Schmittner, Andreas; Bard, Edouard (2012-04-04). [https://web.archive.org/web/20160520043848/http://www.atm.damtp.cam.ac.uk/mcintyre/shakun-co2-temp-lag-nat12.pdf "Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation"] (PDF). ''Nature''. '''484''' (7392): 49–54. doi:[https://doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature10915 10.1038/nature10915]. ISSN [https://www.worldcat.org/issn/1476-4687 1476-4687]. Archived from [https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10915 the original] on 2016-05-20.
* Marcott, Shaun A.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Clark, Peter U.; Mix, Alan C. (2013-03-08). [https://web.archive.org/web/20130412021608/https://content.csbs.utah.edu/~mli/Economics%207004/Marcott_Global%20Temperature%20Reconstructed.pdf "A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years"] (PDF). ''Science''. doi:[https://doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.1228026 10.1126/science.1228026]. Archived from [https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.1228026 the original] on 2013-04-12.
* Annan, J. D.; Hargreaves, J. C. (2013-02-13). [https://web.archive.org/web/20200728042751/https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/367/2013/cp-9-367-2013.pdf "A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum"] (PDF). ''Climate of the Past''. '''9''' (1): 367–376. doi:[https://doi.org/10.5194%2Fcp-9-367-2013 10.5194/cp-9-367-2013]. ISSN [https://www.worldcat.org/issn/1814-9324 1814-9324]. Archived from [https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/367/2013/ the original] on 2020-07-28.
* {{w|HadCRUT|HadCRUT (Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit Temperature)}} - [http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/ Official site]
* {{w|Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}} - [http://www.ipcc.ch/ Official site]

==Transcript==
'''Note''' there are several spelling errors in the comic, so please do only correct spelling errors that are not part of the comic! See more in the [[#Trivia|trivia section]].
:[A large heading, followed by a sub-caption. Below that two lines with a statement in between:]
:<big>A timeline of Earth’s average temperature</big>
:since the last ice age glaciation
:When people say “The climate has changed before,” these are the kinds of changes they’re talking about.

:[A very long chart below the headings above is headed with a label for the scale of the X-axis above the chart. Below that a sub-caption. To the left an arrow down to the top of the chart pointing to the dotted curves starting point (at -4.3°C below the 1961-1990 average) with a label above the arrow. And arrow pointing left to the left of the center and another pointing right to the right of the center has labels. Below these is the temperature scale of the X-axis, with 9 ticks between the borders each with a label ranging from -4 to +4°C compared to the 1961-1990 average, but with another step in each direction not labeled towards to axis so the chart covers -5 to +5°C compared to the 1961-1990 average.]
:'''Temperature'''
: Compared to the 1961-1990 average
:Start
:Colder
:Warmer
:-4°C -3°C -2°C -1°C 0°C +1°C +2°C +3°C +4°C

:[To the right of the chart is a gray text standing on the side down along the outer boarder of the chart with the sources for the chart:]
: Source: Shakun et. al. (2012) , Marcott et. al. (2013), Annan and Hargreaves (2013) , HadCRUT4, IPCC 

:[The chart is split in 10 columns by the temperature scale and the borders. The two central columns are white, and then from there to the left the background becomes a faded color that changes from light blue to blue at the edge in four steps. Similarly to the right the color changes from light red to red. To the left there is a time scale taking 500 years leaps from 20,000 BCE all the way to year 1, where there are two years, one for BBC and one for CE. The 500 year leaps continue until 1500 CE and from there the steps are down to 100 years until 2100 with also present day 2016 labeled. After 1500 the CE is omitted. The labels stop there, but there is space below covering down to 2200 CE. There is clearly visible division line across the chart on the level of each of the 500 step, and fainter lines for each of the 100 steps all the way even though only the last 5 of these 100 steps are labeled. There is a similar clear line at 2016. Below each step on the Y-axis is noted, and then any text starting before the next step is noted below indented. If there are extra image belonging to text this is indented once more. The graph that the whole chart is about is a dotted line that begins at the “start” point mentioned above at -4.3°C and then begins to go straight down. It will change left and right all the way down. To being with all text and most drawings are to right of the dotted curve. Whenever something is to the left it will be noted. When it says to the left above something, and then nothing over the next, then the next will be to the right. Only at the very bottom are there more entries to the left than right. ]
:20000 BCE
::[An arrow goes from the dotted line to the central line at 0°C. In the middle of the line there is a temperature label:]
::4.3°C
::At the start of our timeline, 22,000 years ago, Earth is 4°C colder than during the late 20th century.
::Boston is buried under almost a mile of ice, and the glaciers reach as far south as New York City.
:::[The Statue of Liberty is shown in front of a glacier front. A very tiny Cueball is on top of the glacier. The drawing is labeled and so is also the glacier.]
:::New York
:::Ice
:::[Cueball (wearing a knit cap with a pom-pom is seen walking in a snowy landscape leaving black footprints behind him. He walks through the white central part of the chart.]
:::[The skyline of Boston is shown with two clear buildings among all the other. Above it is a line and in between this area has been filled with thin lines. The drawing is labeled and so is this area. Also the skyline has an arrow pointing at it with a label:]
:::Boston
:::Ice
:::Modern skyline

:19500 BCE
::But the world is about to warm up.
::By this time, humans have already spread across Africa, Eurasia, and Australia.
::They’ve created painting, pottery, rope, and bows and arrows, but haven’t developed writing or farming.

:19000 BCE
::Changes in the Earth’s orbit mean that more sunlight reaches the polar ice…
:::[A line chart with a labeled Y-axis with three labeled ticks. The curve starts up and then goes down five times and up four times ending down. There is one plateau towards the end compared to the rest of the curve where the ups and downs are quite alike.]
:::Summer sun W/m2 at 60°N
:::550
:::500
:::450

:18500 BCE
::[A map of the world. At the top is a light gray area covering North America, Greenland and northern Europe and most of the northern part of Russia. A similar gray area covers Antarctica. There are two labels in the gray area above and one in the gray area below:]
::Ice Ice
::Ice

:18000 BCE
::…And the ice sheets start to melt.

:17500 BCE
::Temperatures have been creeping upward, but around this point, CO2 levels start to climb…

:17000 BCE
::…And then the warming speeds up.

:16500 BCE
::[Cueball is standing with a spear just the right of the graph talking to a rabbit.]
::Cueball: Still pretty cold.

:16000 BCE
::[Megan points to the graph to the right of her and between her and Ponytail standing on the other side. Mean is the first drawing on the left side of the dotted curve, which has hardly moved since the beginning, only to just on the other side of 4°C.]
::[In the right part of the chart is an explanation of the data. Below the first two lines there are four drawings each showing possible temperature swings in reality compared to the smoothed data that represents the dotted curve of the entire chart. The dotted curve is shown in all four drawings and a thin line is shown running along it but with much more fluctuation left and right on the first two, a large spike right on the third and a large bump way right on the fourth. Above these there are two labels. The first labels is inside a bracket that covers the first three, and the last label is for the last drawing. Below is a list of sources.]
::Limits of this data:
::Short warming or cooling spikes might be “smoothed out” by these reconstructions but only if they’re small or brief enough.
:::Possible Unlikely
::Reconstructions are from Shakun (2012) and Marcott (2013), scaled to Annan + Hargreaves (2013) estimate for the last glacial period.

:15500 BCE
::In what is now France, humans paint murals on the walls of the Lascaux caves
::[Hairy paints three animals, two with horns, and two humans, Cueball holding hand with Hairy who has a spear. On the other side of the central line Megan writes three letters, the last of which is reversed.]
:::NIИ

:15000 BCE
::Ice sheets around Alaska shrink, exposing a land bridge between Asia and North America
::[From around the bottom if this section and down to 11500 BCE the dotted curve moved steadily to the right towards warmed temperature peaking close to -1.5°C. Before this the temperature had not moved much away from that at the start.]

:14500 BCE
::[Cueball walks right looking back at the graph behind him. Megan walks in front of him pointing further right.]
::Cueball: Cool.
::Humans reach North America.

:14000 BCE
::The edge of the ice withdraws from New York City and retreats North.
::[A large glacier front speaks in a speech bubble with an arrow pointing at it. Behind is there are four peaks in the horizon and in front of it three small melting pools and some rocks on the ground.]
::Glacier: ''That’s it! I’m moving to Canada!''

:13500 BCE
::Humans domesticate dogs
::(Date uncertain, may be much earlier)
::[Megan and Cueball is watching a wolf looking at them.]
::Megan: Okay, you can live in our homes and we’ll feed you, but we’ll still get mad f you poop on the floor.
::Wolf: Deal.
::Cueball: And we get to breed you to be tiny and dress you in little costumes.
::Wolf: …Wait.

:13000 BCE
::[Randall did not use the normal spelling for Woolly Rhino, but this is an accepted alternative spelling:]
::Wooly Rhino goes extinct
::Oregon is scoured by huge floods as glacial dams burst and lakes of meltwater flow to the sea

:12500 BCE
::Ice sheets withdraw from Chicago

:12000 BCE
::Humans settle Abu Hureyra in Syria

:11500 BCE
::[An arrow on the left side of the dotted curve is pointing down along the dotted curve and to the left indicate temperature is declining again, meaning the dotted curve now moves left to colder temperatures. This only continues until 10500 BCE. It is only the second time something is noted on the left side after Megan at 16000 BCE]
::Temperatures start to decline, mainly in the Northern hemisphere
::This may be caused by changes in ocean circulation due to the floods of cold fresh meltwater flowing into the Atlantic as the North American ice sheet melts.
::This cooler period is called the Younger Dryas

:11000 BCE
::[This is the first text to the left of the dotted curve:]
::Humans reach Argentina

:10500 BCE
::[An arrow pointing down along the right side of the dotted curve and to the right indicate temperature is increasing again, meaning the dotted curve now moves right to hotter temperatures. This continues until 8000 BCE where it levels out just above 0°C.]
::Warming resumes
::Human settlements at Jericho

:10000 BCE
::First development of farming

:9500 BCE
::Saber-toothed cat goes extinct
::[To the left:]
::Horses disappear from North America

:9000 BCE
::[To the left, Randall spelled Pokémon wrong:]
:::Last North American Pokemon go extinct
:::[Cueball with a speak and Megan is looking up at this last “fact”.]
:::Megan: That is not a real fact.
::Temperatures reach modern levels
::Rising seas cut off the land bridge between North America and Asia
::Cattle domesticated

:8500 BCE
::Ice sheets retreat across the Canadian border
::Temperatures start to level out slightly above 1961-1990 levels

:8000 BCE
::[The above sentence breaks over the 8000 BCE line. From here a maximum in temperature on the chart is reached at 0.5°C which will not be overtaken until 2000 CE. It stays almost constant here until 5000 BCE where a slight cooling begins.]

:7500 BCE
::[To the left:]
::This warm, stable period is called the Holocene Climate Optimum
::[To the left:]
::Jiahu settled in China

:7000 BCE
::Final collapse of the North American ice sheet leads to rapid 2-4m sea level rise…
::[A small arrow points down and left to the right of the dotted curve. There is a small decrease in temperature but it is very small and would have been missed without the arrow and label.]
::…And a period of cooling in the Northern hemisphere

:6500 BCE
::[To the left:]
::As seas rise to near their modern levels, Britain is cut off from mainland Europe

:6000 BCE
::Humans develop copper metalworking

:5500 BCE
::[To the left:]
::Massive volcanic eruption in Oregon creates crater lake
::Gold metalworking

:5000 BCE
::[To the left:]
::Invention of the wheel
::[To the left. To the right of the dotted curve is an arrow pointing down and slightly left. From here temperature decreases very slowly but steadily from 0.5°C until 1000 BCE where a stable plateau is reached around 0°C.]
::Earth begins to cool slowly mainly due to regular cycles in its orbit

:4500 BCE
::[To the left:]
:: Proto-Indo-European language develops
:::[To the right of the curve Ponytail holds up a hand towards Cueball.]
:::Ponytail: Let’s make our language heavily inflected, so future students have to memorize a zillion verb endings!
:::Cueball: Okay!
::[To the left:]
::Permanent settlements in the fertile crescent

:4000 BCE
::Horses domesticated
::[To the left:]
::Minoan culture arises on Crete

:3500 BCE
::Egyptian mummification
::Rise of the Indus Valley civilization
::[To the left:]
::Invention of writing in Sumer “prehistory” ends, “history” begins
::Earliest human whose name we know
::(Pharaoh Iry-Hor in Egypt)

:3000 BCE
::''Three Sovereigns and five emperors'' period in China
::Gilgamesh
::[To the left:]
::Imhotep
::Mayan culture emerges
::[To the left:]
::Great Pyramid constructed

:2500 BCE
::Corded Ware culture in Europe
::[To the left of the curve two rock musicians with long hair and electrical guitars are standing on either side of a small gate made of three slabs of stone, one on top of the other two standing stones.]
::Stonehenge completed
::Chariots developed

:2000 BCE
::[To the left:]
::Alphabetic writing developed in Egypt
::Last mammoths on a tiny Siberian island go extinct
::[To the left:]
::Minoan eruption

:1500 BCE
::[To the left:]
::Iron smelting
::Olmec civilization develops in Central America
::[A Trojan horse with two Cueball-like guys in front and a third standing on its back. Its back is at three Cueball’s height and its head rises to the level of the Cueball on its back. It stands on a platform with four wheel on the visible side. There is text on the horse]
:::Setting of the ''Iliad'' and the ''Odyssey''
:::Text on horse: Not a trap
::[To the left:]
::Invasion of the Sea peoples*
::* A real thing
::Polynesians explore the Pacific Ocean

:1000 BCE
::[From 1000 BBC to 1000 CE the temperature is stable and very close to 0°C.]
::[To the left:]
::Solomon
::[Randall spelled Iliad wrongly this time:]
::Illiad and Odyssey composed
::[To the left:]
::Rise of Greek city-states
::Neo-Assyrian empire
::[To the left:]
::First Olympics
::Zapotec writing in modern Mexico
::[To the left:]
::Confucius

:500 BCE
::[To the left:]
::The stuff in the 300 (film)|movie ''300'', but regular speed and with more clothing
::Buddha
::Nazca Lines
::[To the left:]
::Alexander the Great
::[To the left:]
::Mayan hieroglyphics
::Ashoka the Great
::[To the left:]
::Paper invented
::[To the left:]
::Asterix
::Teotihuacán metropolis
::[To the left:]
::Julius Caesar

:[At the year 0, there is instead two numbers for each of the two scales before and after Christ:]
:1 BCE
:1 CE
::[To the left:]
::Roman Empire
::Jesus
::[To the left and erupting volcano.]
::Pompeii
::Three Kingdoms period
::[To the left:]
::Gupta empire
::[To the left:]
::Various groups take turns sacking Rome
::[Randall spelled Attila wrong:]
::Atilla the Hun

:500 CE
::Muhammad
::[To the left:]
::Tang Dynasty
::[An arrow to the right of the dotted curve pointing down, takes a swing far out from the curve and then bends back again. The text label next to it breaks into the next 500 period. The dotted curve stays stable at 0°C along this arrow.]
::Medieval warm period in Europe and some northern regions (too regional to affect the global average much)
::[To the left:]
::Leif Eriksson

:1000 CE
::[The dotted curve moves to the left towards lower temperature reaching a minimum around 1650 of about -0.6°C at the Little Ice Age.]
::[To the left a drawing of a compass with needle pointing the black end towards north east. There are labels for the four main directions and a label next to it:]
:::N
:::W E
:::S
:::Magnetic compass navigation
::[To the left:]
::Ghengis Khan
::Zheng He’s fleet explores Asia and Africa
::[To the left:]
::Aztec Alliance
::[To the left:]
::Printing press
::[To the left:]
::Columbus

:1500 CE
::European Renaissance
::[To the left:]
::Shakespeare

:1600
::[To the left:]
::Newton
::[To the right of the dotted curve there is an arrow pointing down that makes a swing in towards the curve and then back out again. At -0.6°C this is the coldest it has been since 9500 BCE. It is labeled:]
::”Little Ice Age”

:1700
::Steam engines
::[To the left:]
::Unites States Independence

:1800
::Industrial Revolution
::[To the left:]
::Telegraphs
::[After this the dotted curve becomes solid.]

:1900
::[To the left, and on the line for 1900:]
::Airplanes
::[To the left:]
::World Wars
::[The solid line takes a step to the right close to 0°C. Over the rest of the 1900s it moves closer to 0°C crossing it before 2000 where it almost reaches the maximum temperature of 0.5 °C from earlier in 8000 BCE.]
::Fossil fuel CO2 emissions start rapidly increasing
::[To the left:]
::Nuclear weapons
::[To the left:]
::Internet

:2000
::Northwest Passage opens
::[From here to present day the solid line increases rapidly and in 2016 present day is almost reaches 1°C, with about 0.8°C.]

:2016
::[To the left on the line for 2016:]
::Present day
::[From here the curve once again becomes dotted as this is the future. After one dot it splits in two and after the first two dots another split between them occurs forming three possible future dotted curves. The first curve bending down before the others, and thus to the right of the other two reaches about 1.2°C and then goes straight down and stops at the 2100 line. An arrow points to it from the left and a label is written patly before and the rest after the 2100 line to the left of the curve:]
::Best-case scenario assuming immediate massive action to limit emissions

:2100
::[The middle curve bends a little down after reaching 1.3°C and then continues this path reaching 2°C in 2100. An arrow point from below to it and a label is written below the curve and below 2100 line:]
::Optimistic scenario
::[The last line continues along the path from the last 16 years of the solid line reaching 4.2°C at 2100, almost as far on the other side of 0°C in 150 years as it took 14000 years to move from the other side from the start of the chart. Another arrow point to this from below with a label below the curve and below 2100 line:]
::Current Path

==Trivia==
*There have been several ''[[:Category:Large drawings|large drawings]]'' in the history of xkcd, some of which are bigger than this one (for instance [[1110: Click and Drag]]).
**Among those that can be viewed in one go, without downloading a larger file or moving around, this is by far the longest.
**The next longest is probably [[482: Height]].
*The timeline starts at 20,000 BCE (22,000 years ago) and ends at 2100 CE, thus covering 22,100 years.
*There are several spelling mistakes.
**Most obvious is the second time Randall wrote the word "Iliad," because he just spelled it correctly at 1500 BCE and then spelled it ''Illiad'' at 1000 BCE with two "L"s.
**Attila the Hun becomes ''Atilla the Hun'' with ''one'' T and ''two'' L's.
**Pokémon is spelled ''Pokemon'', but then again, that is not so strange for Randall (see [[1647: Diacritics]]). Despite that, he usually spells it correctly, as in [[1705|1705: Pokémon Go]].
**Note that the fact that woolly rhinoceros becomes ''Wooly rhino'' with only one l is not a spelling mistake but an alternative spelling of the word.
*The following notable facts are absent
**1850: methodical temperature record begins. However, this fact is indirectly indicated when the temperature curve becomes solid around 1850 and until present day.
**The entire swing period between 20 and 200 thousand years prior to now would depict temperature swings with increasing frequency and amplitude (ref geological record). But of course, this could not be included in a comic that only goes back to 20,000 BCE.
**During much of the 300 million years prior to that, the Earth was significantly warmer than now. However, the data's temporal precision decreases with age; seemingly abrupt changes millions of years ago might have happened over centuries or millennia. Hence, the older data is not usable to compare rates of change.

===Popularity of comic===
This comic became popular with a much broader audience than most xkcd comics. It was discussed admiringly by news sites such as [http://www.popsci.com/xkcd-earth-average-temperature-timeline Popular Science], [http://reason.com/blog/2016/09/14/send-around-this-xkcd-climate-change-web Reason], [http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/09/13/xkcd_takes_on_global_warming.html Slate], [http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/new-comic-masterfully-shows-how-climate-has-changed-through-time-180960451/ Smithsonian], [http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2016/09/13/heres-22000-years-of-climate-changes-in-a-single-comic/ Forbes], [https://www.vox.com/2016/9/12/12891814/climate-change-xkcd-graphic Vox], [https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/09/14/493925781/epic-climate-cartoon-goes-viral-but-it-has-one-key-problem NPR], [https://qz.com/780391/xkcd-tells-the-entire-history-of-humanity-and-climate-change-in-one-cartoon-chart/ Quartz], [https://www.sciencealert.com/why-4-5-million-years-of-fluctuating-global-temperatures-can-t-explain-climate-change-today Science Alert] and [https://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-xkcd-comic-20696 Climate Central]. It was promoted by famous individuals such as [https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/775632728548970500 Elon Musk] and even [https://twitter.com/unfccc/status/776129715799224320 twitted by the UN council on Climate Change], and obviously hated on by vocal {{rw|climate_change|climate change deniers}} and {{rw|crank|cranks}} such as [https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/53poul/josh_takes_on_xkcds_climate_timeline/ Anthony Watts]{{rw|Anthony_Watts|debunked}} and [http://joannenova.com.au/2016/09/how-to-make-climate-graphs-look-scary-a-reply-to-xkcd/ Joanne Nova]{{rw|Joanne_Nova|debunked}}

Saying the "dotted line comes from computer models" is a bit inaccurate. Prehistoric temperature reconstructions are based on lots of measurements from lots of places around the planet: ice cores, lake and ocean sediments, etc. which are the best proxy records of climate change. From those measurements, one infers temperature, so [[Randall Munroe]] [https://www.scpr.org/news/2016/09/15/64670/epic-climate-cartoon-goes-viral-but-it-has-one-key/#comment-2900724860 may be more correct than he realises]. Calling that process computer modeling stretches the meaning of the phrase. For more {{rw|rationalist}} critique of this chart not driven by the agenda of pushing {{rw|pseudoscientific}} beliefs which are against the worldwide consensus, see [https://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-xkcd-comic-20696 t][https://reason.com/2016/09/14/send-around-this-xkcd-climate-change-web/ h][https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/09/14/493925781/epic-climate-cartoon-goes-viral-but-it-has-one-key-problem i][https://www.scpr.org/news/2016/09/15/64670/epic-climate-cartoon-goes-viral-but-it-has-one-key/ s] and most insightfully, [https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/09/13/everybody-always-gets-this-wrong-even-smart-people this].

*Due to increased interest, Randall decided to push the release of the next comic [[1733: Solar Spectrum]] one day back for a rare [[:Category:Thursday comics|Thursday release]] instead of the scheduled [[:Category:Wednesday comics|Wednesday release]].
**He [http://web.archive.org/web/20160915101125/http://xkcd.com/ noted this] above [[:image:1732_Earth_Temperature_Timeline_header_text_changed_for_all_comics.png|all the comics]] in the [[:image:1732_Earth_Temperature_Timeline_header_text_changed.png|header text on xkcd]]:
::''Note: Since a lot of new people are here looking for this chart today,''
::''I'll be posting Wednesday's comic on Thursday instead.''
:*Before that, the [http://web.archive.org/web/20160912181546/https://xkcd.com/ normal heading] with the release day of xkcd was shown.
:*This was (of course) still there Tuesday the [http://web.archive.org/web/20160913231501/http://xkcd.com/ day after] the release, because it was first on Wednesday there were reason to note the delay.
:*It stayed in place even [[:image:1732_Earth_Temperature_Timeline_header_text_changed_also_when_next_comic_was_released.png|for some time after]] the "Wednesday" comic was released on Thursday, but was [http://web.archive.org/web/20160915154605/http://xkcd.com/ then removed] before [[:image:1732_Earth_Temperature_Timeline_header_text_back_to_normal_shortly_after_next_comic_was_released.png|noon (EST)]] on Thursday.
:**Randall did thus not post a link to this comic in the header text for new visitors to use, only giving them that one extra day.
:*Even though the next comic was released on a Thursday, the scheduled Friday comic [[1734: Reductionism]] was still released as planned.
:**This was also the first time this occurred on xkcd - see [[1734:_Reductionism#Trivia|this trivia item]] from the Friday comic.
*On 2019-03-01, this comic became one of the six [[Design of xkcd.com|footer]] comics.
==== Removal of warning and footnote ====
*This comic's popularity was possibly the reason that both the more-than-10-year-old [[xkcd warning]] as well as the [[footnote#Original_footnote|original footnote]] was [[footnote#Removal_of_original_footnote|removed]] on the day of this comic's release.
**The next footnote was added 22 days later.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Large drawings]]
[[Category:Charts]]
[[Category:Timelines]]
[[Category:Line graphs]]
[[Category:Maps]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]] 
[[Category:Multiple Cueballs]]
[[Category:Climate change]]
[[Category:Science]]
[[Category:Animals]]
[[Category:Music]] 
[[Category:Fiction]] 
[[Category:Sport]] 
[[Category:Religion]] 
[[Category:Internet]]
[[Category:Pokémon]]
[[Category:Footer comics]]
[[Category:Puns]] 
[[Category:Volcanoes]]
[[Category:Nuclear weapons]]

1732: Earth Temperature Timeline

2022-02-01T07:29:18Z

Troy0: /* Sources */ Full citations

{{comic
| number = 1732
| date = September 12, 2016
| title = Earth Temperature Timeline
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]
| image = earth_temperature_timeline.png
| titletext = [After setting your car on fire] Listen, your car's temperature has changed before.
}}

==Explanation==
{{TOC}}
This comic is a [[:Category:Timelines|timeline]] on how the temperature has changed from 20,000 BCE (Before {{w|Common Era}}) to the present day (2016), with three predictions for the rest of the 21st century depending on what actions are taken (or not taken) to stop CO₂ emission. This comic is a direct, but much more thorough, follow up on the previous global warming comic: [[1379: 4.5 Degrees]]. By having readers scroll through millennia of slow-paced natural changes, Randall uses the comic to confront the rapid temperature rise in recent years.

Over the past 100 years, human action has produced a large amount of {{w|CO₂ emissions}}, which have caused a rise in average global temperature through the {{w|greenhouse effect}}. This is called {{w|global warming}} and is part of a {{w|climate change}}, a subject that has become a [[:Category:Climate change|recurrent subject]] on xkcd. There are still many people who claim that this is not happening, or at least that it is not caused by any human actions, called {{w|Climate change denial|climate change deniers}}. One argument of theirs is that global warming is happening for natural causes, summarized with the phrase "temperature has changed before".

This comic shows that while temperature changes have indeed occurred before, the speed of the current temperature rise is much, much faster than those measured for many previous thousands of years. The comic became so popular that [[Randall]] [[#Popularity_of_comic|postponed the release]] of his next comic to keep this one on the front page one day longer.

The temperature curve is a dotted line most of the time, but from about 1850 to 2016 the measurement data is good enough to let the curve become a solid line indicating that this is not an estimate. Before 1850 the temperature is an estimate based on the [[#Sources|sources]] given. And likewise into the future the three possible curves are also dotted to show that they are predictions, based on how seriously the population of Earth takes knowledge (and comics) like this.

Although this is a topic Randall obviously takes very seriously, and by far most of the facts fit with known history, he still includes several [[#Jokes in the comic|jokes in the comic]]. See also the [[#Table of all elements|table]] explaining each item in the comic. After the election of {{w|Donald Trump}} for president later the year of this comic's release, it is possible that Randall believes that his worst fears (as expressed by the current path at the bottom) will hold up, with the actions taken by the new president.

The title text compares the saying that "the temperature has changed before" comparing temperature changes over thousands of years to the rapid global warming over the last century with saying that the "small" changes to the temperature a car experiences over the years of normal usage should not make you worried over the rapid temperature increase that happens when someone sets your car on fire. Randall previously used this joke in [[1693: Oxidation]].

===Jokes in the comic===
* By placing the invention of the internet at 1980 in the chart, just where the temperature curve starts its most rapid increase, Randall humorously implies that the internet caused the rise in temperature.
* At 13600 BCE a glacier is shown retreating from New York because of the warm up. It is disgusted by the new changes and proclaims: ''That’s it! I’m moving to Canada!'' This is a joke on [https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/want-to-move-to-canada-if-trump-wins-not-so-fast-100658/ an idiom said by US citizens] to protest against changes in their country. As shown in the chart, the glacier takes 5000 years (13600-8400 BCE) to cross what would become the Canadian border (neither the United States nor Canada existed yet).{{citation needed}} Also, glaciers don't speak English, or any language for that matter.{{Citation needed}}
* At 13400 BCE it is mentioned that {{w|origin of the domestic dog|humans domesticate dogs}}. [[Megan]] talks to a wolf about to be tamed making a deal with it, that it can eat and sleep with the humans as long as they can yell at it for pooping indoors. This sounds like a sweet deal for the wolf until [[Cueball]] mentions that they will {{w|Dog breeding|breed}} it to be {{w|Chihuahua (dog)|very small}} and then dress it up in small {{w|Dog's fashion|costumes}}. The wolf says wait, but it is already too late...
* The {{w|Pokémon}} reference at 9000 BCE about them going extinct in North America (although Megan does proclaim that this is not a real fact). As the writing stated that ''Pokémon go extinct'' this can also be seen as a reference to a popular video game called {{w|Pokémon Go}} and hence also the comic [[1705|1705: Pokémon Go]].
* At 4500 BCE, next to "{{w|Proto-Indo-European language}} develops", [[Ponytail]] gets the idea to develop the language heavily inflected to make it difficult to remember all the verb endings for future students. This is a direct reference to the comic [[1709: Inflection]].
* The reference to the 1984 {{w|mockumentary}} about the fake rock band {{w|This Is Spinal Tap}} in conjunction with {{w|Stonehenge}} at 2200 BCE. In the movie the band ordered a giant 18 feet Stonehenge megalith but a writing mistake gives them one that is only 18 inches high.
**Another real band {{w|Nine Inch Nails}} is referenced 16000 BCE where Megan writes the band's stylized name NIИ on the wall next to [[Hairy]] who is in the process of painting the {{w|cave painting}} at {{w|Lascaux}} in France.
* Around the setting of the {{w|Iliad}} and the {{w|Odyssey}} (1200 BCE) a drawing of the {{w|Trojan Horse}} has writing on it that states: ''Not a trap''.
* Just below the previous entry also at 1200 BCE is the mentioning of the invasion of the {{w|Sea Peoples}}. This sounds so much like a reference to {{w|Mermaid|mermaids}}, often called {{w|Mermaid#One_Thousand_and_One_Nights|sea people}} that Randall feels the need to note that this invasion and these sea people is ''a real thing'' in a footnote. This is opposed to the Pokémon reference above where he notes that it is ''not a real fact''. The sea people was a seafaring confederation of groups known to have attacked ancient Egypt and other Bronze age civilizations around this time. It is widely regarded to be one of the major causes of the {{w|Late Bronze Age collapse|Bronze Age Collapse}}.
* The reference at 450 BCE compares the {{w|Battle of Thermopylae}} (also known as 300 Spartans) with the dramatized 2007 movie ''{{w|300 (film)|300}}'', but in the real world the fighting of course occurred [https://youtu.be/FCfdyroV7kc?t=12 at regular speed and with more clothing].
*There are other minor jokes but this list mentions all the major jokes.

===Table of all elements===
*Here is table including all elements in the chart with explanations including reading off temperature and year for each event from the curve.
**The year group is just an easy way to find the section.
**Element is a description mainly taken from the transcript.
**The actual year of an event has been read off more precisely on the chart.
***The central part of the element has mainly been used.
***Only rarely has ranges below 100 years been used but if a location is clearly midway between two hundred years intervals 50 year range has been used.
***Only when there are several posts close to each other has smaller range been used a few times.
**T (°C) is the number of degrees Celsius above or below the 1961-1990 average, which on this graph is set to zero, (i.e. not the number of physical degrees above or below this 0°C).
***These have been read of to 0.1°C rounding up or down. Lines have been inserted over the chart, 10 for each degree, to make this as accurate as possible.
***In a few cases where a maximum is reached 0.05°C has been used
**Explanation of each element.
{| class="wikitable"
!Year group
!Element
!Year
!T (°C)
!Explanation
|-
| rowspan="2"| 20000 BCE
| [An arrow goes from the dotted line to the central line at 0°C (representing the 1961-1990 average). In the middle of the line there is a temperature label:] 4.3°C At the start of our timeline, 22,000 years ago, Earth is 4°C colder than during the late 20th century. || 20000 BCE || -4.3 || The scale here is relative, showing the magnitude of change rather than an absolute temperature reading. As a rule, {{w|climate}} changes are compared with a 30 year interval, and the 1961-1990 average was {{w|Climate#Definition|chosen for convenience}} as the "normal" to compare temperature changes with, but any other choice of baseline would show the exact same changes. The {{w|Last glacial period}} (aka ice age) reached its {{w|Last Glacial Maximum|maximum extent}} approximately 22 to 24 thousand years ago.
|-

| {{w|Boston}} is buried under almost a mile of ice, and the {{w|glaciers}} reach as far south as {{w|New York City}}. [The Statue of Liberty is shown in front of a glacier front. [[Knit Cap]] is seen in the snowy landscape. The skyline of Boston is shown under a half a mile of ice.] || 19700 BCE || -4.3 || This shows what a difference 4 degree in global temperature means (massive effect), as opposed to four degrees on a daily weather wise scale (trivial). The Boston image is directly taken from [[1225: Ice Sheets]] about the ice age glacier coverage; it was also shown buried in ice in [[1379: 4.5 Degrees]].
|-
| rowspan="3"| 19500 BCE
| But the world is about to warm up. || 19500 BCE|| -4.3 || The warming process actually takes thousands of years, which this comic will portray down thousands of pixels to come. This is not a fast warm up, especially not compared to the one we are currently experiencing (at the bottom of the chart).
|-
| By this time, humans have already spread across {{w|Africa}}, {{w|Eurasia}}, and {{w|Australia}}. || 19300 BCE || -4.3 || {{w|Homo Sapiens}} successfully {{w|Recent_African_origin_of_modern_humans#Movement_out_of_Africa|migrated out of Africa}} somewhere between {{w|Recent_African_origin_of_modern_humans#Dating:_pre-or_post-Toba|130,000}} and {{w|Recent_African_origin_of_modern_humans#Coastal_route|70,000}} BCE.
|-
| They’ve created {{w|painting}}, {{w|pottery}}, {{w|rope}}, and {{w|Bow and arrow|bows and arrows}}, but haven’t developed {{w|writing}} or {{w|farming}}. || 19100 BCE || -4.3 || The {{w|History of painting#Pre-history|oldest known paintings}} date back to about 38,000 BCE. The {{w|Ceramic_art#History|oldest known pottery}} date back to about 20,000 BCE. The {{w|Rope#History|oldest known rope}} date back to about 26,000 BCE. The {{w|History_of_archery#Stone_Age_and_Bronze_Age_archery|oldest known arrows}} date back to about 70,000 BCE, but Randall seems to be mistaken about the bows which seems to be {{w|History_of_archery#Stone_Age_and_Bronze_Age_archery|at most 10,000 years old}}. Writing is mentioned again at 3500 BCE and farming at 10,000 BCE.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 19000 BCE
| Changes in the Earth’s orbit mean that more sunlight reaches the polar ice… || 18600 BCE || -4.2 ||{{w|Milankovitch cycles}} are repeated climate variations on a timescale of tens of millennia caused by cyclic variations in {{w|Orbital eccentricity|eccentricity}}, {{w|axial tilt}}, and {{w|precession}} of the {{w|Earth's orbit}}, which thus then determined climatic patterns on Earth. The Milankovitch cycles are referenced again around 4700 BCE.

|-
| [A line chart with a labeled Y-axis "Summer sun W/m2 at 60°N" with three labeled ticks ranging from 450-550. The curve starts up and then goes down five times and up four times ending down. There is one plateau towards the end compared to the rest of the curve where the ups and downs are quite alike.] || 18600 BCE || -4.2 || The chart shows the input of sun during summer time in the {{w|Northern hemisphere}} (at {{w|60° northern latitude}}) as the effect (W) per square meter (m2) which fluctuated in the range from 450-550 during the time shown in the chart. There is, however, no scale for the time between the peaks. This chart relates to the text about increasing sun to the polar ice in the entry above.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 18500 BCE
| [A map of the world. At the top is a light gray area covering {{w|North America}}, {{w|Greenland}} and northern {{w|Europe}} and most of the northern part of {{w|Russia}}. A similar gray area covers {{w|Antarctica}}. The gray areas are labeled as ice.] || 18300 BCE || -4.2 || This [[:Category:Maps|map]] shows where the ice covered the {{w|northern hemisphere}} (and Antarctica) during the {{w|Last Glacial Maximum}}. The continents have not moved much since then, but the lower water level caused by the amount of water bound up in the ice, can clearly be seen in several locations. For instance, the {{w|British islands}}, Greenland, and {{w|Papua New Guinea}} are connected to their respective neighboring continents. Also {{w|Alaska}} and Russia are connected through the ice sheets covering the northern part of the Earth.
|-
| rowspan="1"| 18000 BCE
| …And the ice sheets start to melt. || 17900 BCE || -4.1 || This was a slow process that takes 10,000 years. The ice is mentioned again at 13,600 and 8400 BCE.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 17500 BCE
| Temperatures have been creeping upward, but around this point, CO2 levels start to climb…|| 17300 BCE || -4.1 || Due to the release of gasses from various sources (dissolved in the ocean, trapped in {{w|permafrost}}, etc), {{w|Carbon dioxide in Earth's_atmosphere#Measuring ancient-Earth carbon dioxide concentration|atmospheric CO2 levels}} increased by 100 parts per million over a span of thousands of years. Modern civilization has added the same amount in a single century.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 17000 BCE
| …And then the warming speeds up. || 16700 BCE || -4.1 || It took 3000 years for the temperature to increase with one degree. So this sentence can be seen as sarcasm about the rate of natural climate change compared to modern {{w|anthropogenic}} (human caused) warming.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 16500 BCE
| [Cueball is standing with a spear just the right of the graph talking to a rabbit.] Cueball: Still pretty cold. || 16200 BCE || -4.0 || True, because although the temperature has risen with 0.3°C over the last 4000 years, it's still 4°C below the 1961-1990 average.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 16000 BCE
| [Megan touches the dotted line to the right of her, with Ponytail standing on the other side. The graph has finally passed the -4°C line below the 1961-1990 average.] || 15600 BCE || -3.9 || Megan is the first drawing on the left side of the curve. She seems to be pushing the temperature up.
|-
| [In the right part of the chart is an explanation of the data. Below the first two lines there are four drawings each showing possible temperature swings in reality compared to the smoothed data that represents the dotted curve of the entire chart. The dotted curve is shown in all four drawings and a thin line is shown running along it but with much more fluctuation left and right on the first two, a large spike right on the third and a large bump way right on the fourth. Above these there are two labels. The first labels is inside a bracket that covers the first three, and the last label is for the last drawing. Below is a list of sources.] Limits of this data: Short warming or cooling spikes might be “smoothed out” by these reconstructions but only if they’re small or brief enough. Possible Unlikely Reconstructions are from Shakun (2012) and Marcott (2013), scaled to Annan + Hargreaves (2013) estimate for the last glacial period. || 15600 BCE || -3.9 || This is Randall's pre-emptive response to skepticism about the accuracy of prehistoric data. {{w|Ice cores}} and similar records might miss individual year-to-year variation, but should catch sustained changes lasting many decades, which is the time scale that matters for climate. See links to the [[#Sources|sources below]].

|-
| rowspan="1"| 15500 BCE
| In what is now {{w|France}}, humans paint murals on the walls of the {{w|Lascaux}} caves [Hairy paints three animals, two with horns, and two humans, Cueball holding hand with Hairy who has a spear. On the other side of the central line Megan writes three letters, the last of which is reversed:] NIИ || 15200 BCE || -3.8 || A reference to the industrial techno band {{w|Nine Inch Nails}} as Megan writes the bands stylized name NIИ on the wall next to Hairy who is in the process of painting part of the {{w|cave paintings}} at Lascaux in France.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 15000 BCE
| Ice sheets around {{w|Alaska}} shrink, exposing a land bridge between Asia and North America [From around the bottom if this section and down to 11500 BCE the dotted curve moved steadily to the right towards warmed temperature peaking close to 1.5°C below the 1961-1990 average. Before this the temperature had not moved much away from that at the start.] || 14600 BCE || -3.5 || This land bridge is known as {{w|Beringia}}. It is mentioned again at 8300 when it disappears due to the rising seas.
|-
| rowspan="1"| 14500 BCE
| [Cueball walks right looking back at the graph behind him. Megan walks in front of him pointing further right.] Cueball: Cool. Humans reach {{w|North America}}. || 14200 BCE || -3.3 || This is approximately when the humans from {{w|Asia}} crossed the land bridge mentioned in the previous entry, from what is now {{w|Siberia}} to what is now {{w|Alaska}}. {{w|Settlement of the Americas}} occurred around the time shown in the chart, although {{w|Settlement_of_the_Americas#Chronology|it's possible}} that earlier humans did so by boat prior to the formation of the land bridge. Cueball's comment is a double entendre; it was figuratively "cool" that early people migrated this far, and the climate was literally cool compared to modern times.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 14000 BCE
| The edge of the ice withdraws from {{w|New York City}} and retreats north. || 13700 BCE || -3.1 || Even though the ice began to melt 4000 years before (at 18,000 BCE in the chart) it is first now that New York City is free of ice.
|-
| [A large glacier front speaks in a speech bubble with an arrow pointing at it. Behind is there are four peaks in the horizon and in front of it three small melting pools and some rocks on the ground.] Glacier: ''That’s it! I’m moving to Canada!'' || 13600 BCE || -3.0 || When US citizens are unhappy with changes in their country, they sometimes say they will move to Canada in protest. Here it is the glacier that is anthropomorphically unhappy with the climate changes. However this is a slow process; it crosses the Canadian border more than 5000 years later.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 13500 BCE
| Humans domesticate dogs (Date uncertain, may be much earlier) || 13400 BCE || -3.0 || See {{w|Origin of the domestic dog}}. This timeline event is not quite accurate. The first dogs differentiated from {{w|Gray wolf|wolves}} about {{w|Origin_of_the_domestic_dog#Time_of_domestication|23,500 years ago}}, but there was an event around 13500 BCE that increased the population size and may be attributable to domestication events.
|-
|| [Megan and Cueball is watching a wolf looking at them.] Megan: Okay, you can live in our homes and we’ll feed you, but we’ll still get mad if you poop on the floor. Wolf: Deal. Cueball: And we get to breed you to be tiny and dress you in little costumes. Wolf: …Wait. || 13100 BCE || -2.8 || Megan is making a deal with the wolf that it can eat and sleep with the humans as long as they can yell at it for pooping indoor. This sounds like a sweet deal for the wolf until Cueball mentions that they will {{w|Dog breeding|breed}} it to be {{w|Chihuahua (dog)|very small}} and then dress it up in small {{w|Dog's fashion|costumes}}. The wolf says wait, but it is already too late...

|-
| rowspan="2"| 13000 BCE
| {{w|Woolly Rhino}} goes extinct || 12900 BCE || -2.7 || Mainland woolly rhinos died in the {{w|Quaternary extinction event}}, but a small island population survived until {{w|Woolly_rhinoceros#Extinction|around 8000 BCE}}. Woolly rhinos likely became extinct in part due to {{w|Holocene extinction|over-hunting}}. Randall's choice of species on this chart seems to focus on animals that were greatly affected by humans, for good or ill.
|-
| {{w|Oregon}} is scoured by huge floods as glacial dams burst and lakes of meltwater flow to the sea || 12600 BCE || -2.2 || This is a reference to the {{w|Missoula Floods}} several cataclysmic floods that swept periodically across eastern {{w|Washington}} and down the {{w|Columbia River Gorge}} flooding much of eastern Washington and the {{w|Willamette Valley}} in western Oregon at the end of the last ice age. During the last {{w|deglaciation}} ice dams formed then burst several times between 13,000 and 11,000 BCE.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 12500 BCE
| Ice sheets withdraw from Chicago || 12200 BCE || -1.8 || The next step towards the Canadian border, after they left New York at 13,600 BCE.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 12000 BCE
| Humans settle {{w|Abu Hureyra}} in {{w|Syria}} || 11550 BCE || -1.6 || A well-preserved prehistoric village that existed from 11,000 to 7000 BCE (a little later than noted in the chart), allowing archaeologists to study how their culture developed.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 11500 BCE
| [An arrow on the left side of the dotted curve is pointing down along the dotted curve and to the left indicate temperature is declining again, meaning the dotted curve now moves left to colder temperatures. This only continues until 10500 BCE. It is only the second time something is noted on the left side after Megan at 16000 BCE] Temperatures start to decline, mainly in the Northern hemisphere This may be caused by changes in ocean circulation due to the floods of cold fresh meltwater flowing into the Atlantic as the North American ice sheet melts. This cooler period is called the {{w|Younger Dryas}} || 11300 BCE || -1.6 || In the Younger Dryas, the Earth cooled by almost one degree over 1000 years. There were {{w|Outburst flood#Glacial_floods_in_North_America_.288.2C000_to_15.2C000_years_ago.29|several floods}} during the end of the ice age but the most famous is the one from {{w|Lake Agassiz}}. A similar but less global effect could occur if the ice on {{w|Greenland}} melts too quickly and causes a {{w|shutdown of thermohaline circulation}}. Without the {{w|Gulf Stream}}, hot water would remain in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean instead of warming the {{w|North Atlantic}} and Europe. The movie {{w|The Day After Tomorrow}} dramatized a worse-than-worst-case version of this, happening in days instead of centuries.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 11000 BCE
| [This is the first text to the left of the dotted curve:] Humans reach {{w|Argentina}} || 10900 BCE || -1.8 || The earliest evidence of {{w|Indigenous_peoples_in_Argentina#Prehistory|humans in Argentina}}. Finally the temperature graph has risen enough that there is space to write text on the left side of the curve.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 10500 BCE
| [An arrow pointing down along the right side of the dotted curve and to the right indicate temperature is increasing again, meaning the dotted curve now moves right to hotter temperatures. This continues until 8000 BCE where it levels out just above the 1961-1990 average.] Warming resumes || 10500 BCE || -1.8 || After 1000 years of slightly decreasing temperatures the warm up of Earth resumes. Over the next 3000 years the temperature increases 2.5°C, reaching a long plateau about 0.5°C above the 1961-1990 average around 7500 BCE.
|-
| Human settlements at {{w|Jericho}} ||10050 BCE || -1.4 || The {{w|Jericho#Pre-Pottery_Neolithic.2C_c._9500_BCE|first permanent settlement}} on the site of Jericho occurred around 9500 BCE, but there is evidence of {{w|Jericho#Natufian_hunter-gatherers.2C_c._10.2C000_BCE|non permanent settlement}} during this period, when cold and drought made permanent habitation in that region difficult.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 10000 BCE
| First development of {{w|farming}} || 9750 BCE || -1.1 || This is now called the {{w|Neolithic Revolution}}, i.e. the wide-scale transition of many human cultures from a lifestyle of {{w|Hunter-gatherer|hunting and gathering}} to one of {{w|agriculture}} and settlement. The {{w|history of agriculture}} began independently in several locations with both {{w|domestication}} of animals and the farming of different {{w|cereals}}. One of the first regions to develop farming was the {{w|Fertile Crescent}}. This is also around this time that the last ice age is said to have ended.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 9500 BCE
| {{w|Saber-toothed cat}} goes extinct || 9200 BCE || -0.3 || Although one of these (Smilodon) was known as the {{w|saber-toothed tiger}}, most saber-toothed "cats" are not related to tigers, or any modern {{w|cats}} at all, but can be viewed as examples of convergent evolution. {{w|Smilodon}} became extinct around 8000 BCE, and the last Saber-toothed cat first became extinct around 7000 BCE, which does not fit very well with Randall's range. Indirectly humans may have caused the extinction of the Saber-toothed cat by over-hunting their {{w|megafauna}} prey, depriving the cats of food sources.

|-
| {{w|Horses}} disappear from {{w|North America}} || 9100 BCE || -0.2 || The {{w|evolution of the horse}} began millions of years ago in North America; early species {{w|Evolution_of_the_horse#Miocene_and_Pliocene:_true_equines|migrated across Beringia into Eurasia}} before their predecessors {{w|Evolution_of_the_horse#Pleistocene_extinctions|died out}}.

|-
| rowspan="4"| 9000 BCE
| | Last North American {{w|Pokémon}} go extinct [Cueball with a spear and Megan is looking up at this last “fact”.] Megan: That is not a real fact. || 8900 BCE || -0.1 || Pokemon are not real. This faux-extinction is likely a reference to the {{w|Pokémon Go}} game, which Randall spoofed in [[1705|1705: Pokémon Go]]. Virtual Pokémon now thrive throughout the entire world, and are most commonly found near [http://time.com/4443225/pokemon-go-affluent-white-neighborhoods-report/ affluent first world neighborhoods].

|-
| Temperatures reach modern levels || 8800 BCE || 0.0 || It took 11,200 years for the temperature to increase 4.3°C. It's possible that human-created effects will produce an equal change in a few hundred years.
|-
| Rising seas cut off the {{w|land bridge}} between North America and Asia || 8700 BCE || 0.1 || {{w|Beringia}} was freed of ice in 15,000 BCE. This is an example of what happens when the temperature rises and glaciers melt. Sea levels are rising again as ice on {{w|Greenland}} and {{w|Antarctica}} continues to melt.

|-
| {{w|Cattle}} domesticated || 8500 BCE || 0.2 || Cattle feature prominently in the comic [[1338: Land Mammals]].

|-
| rowspan="2"| 8500 BCE
| Ice sheets retreat across the Canadian border || 8400 BCE || 0.3 || Finally the glacier that began retreating from New York around 13,600 BCE succeeded in moving to Canada as it had threatened to do...
|-
| Temperatures start to level out slightly above 1961-1990 levels || 8050 BCE || 0.4 || The next 3000 years the temperature stays within 0.2°C degree of a temperature 0.5°C above the 1961-1990 average. A very long and stable period.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 8000 BCE
| [The above sentence breaks over the 8000 BCE line. From here a maximum in temperature on the chart is reached at 0.5°C above the 1961-1990 average, which will not be overtaken until 2000 CE. It stays almost constant here until 5000 BCE where a slight cooling begins.] || 8000 BCE || 0.4 || This is the only five hundred year span with no events listed fully inside. Maybe because nothing happens with the temperature.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 7500 BCE
| This warm, stable period is called the {{w|Holocene Climate Optimum}} || 7400 BCE || 0.5 || Some skeptics like to say "[http://www.skepticalscience.com/10000-years-warmer.htm it was warmer in the Holocene]." This is no longer true. Global temperature began encroaching Holocene levels in 1998, and has equaled or possibly exceeded them since 2014.
|-
| {{w|Jiahu}} settled in China || 7050 BCE || 0.5 || Jiahu is another prehistoric settlement, similar to Abu Hureyra (12000 BCE), that was extensively studied by archaeologists.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 7000 BCE
| Final collapse of the North American ice sheet leads to rapid 2-4m sea level rise… || 6800 BCE || 0.55 || The temperature almost reached 0.6°C above the 1961-1990 average before this happened and caused the slight decrease in temperature mentioned below.
|-
| [A small arrow points down and left to the right of the dotted curve. There is a small decrease in temperature but it is very small and would have been missed without the arrow and label.] …And a period of cooling in the Northern hemisphere || 6550 BCE || 0.5 || A 0.05 degree decrease in 200 years again refers to the theme of slow natural climate change.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 6500 BCE
| As seas rise to near their modern levels, Britain is cut off from mainland Europe || 6300 BCE || 0.45 || This is a reference to the flooding of {{w|Doggerland}}.

|-
| rowspan="1"| 6000 BCE
| Humans develop copper metalworking || 5600 BCE || 0.5 || The {{w|copper age}} was relatively brief before humans discovered how to make {{w|bronze}}.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 5500 BCE
| Massive volcanic eruption in {{w|Oregon}} creates crater lake || 5300 BCE || 0.55 || {{w|Crater Lake}} is the caldera at the top of Mount Mazama, a collapsed stratovolcano. If it erupted again, it could become a Somma volcano (see [[1714: Volcano Types]]).
|-
| {{w|Gold}} metalworking || 5050 BCE || 0.6 || The temperature peaks here at just a bit more than 0.6°C above the 1961-1990 average. It will not rise above this level until the global warming sets in in the 1900s.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 5000 BCE
| {{w|Invention of the wheel}} || 4900 BCE || 0.6 || Wheels are one of the most important inventions of humanity. They feature in many xkcd comics, such as [[1075: Warning]].
|-
| [To the right of the dotted curve is an arrow pointing down and slightly left. From here temperature decreases very slowly but steadily from 0.5°C above the 1961-1990 average until 1000 BCE where a stable plateau is reached around the 1961-1990 average.] Earth begins to cool slowly mainly due to regular cycles in its orbit || 4800 BCE || 0.5 || Again a reference to the {{w|Milankovitch cycles}} mentioned in detail at 18,600 BCE. Here they cause a cooling rather than a heating as they did back then.

|-
| rowspan="3"| 4500 BCE
| {{w|Proto-Indo-European language}} develops || 4400 BCE || 0.5 || Most of the languages in Europe, the Middle East, and India share a surprising number of common roots. PIE is the theoretical ancestor from which they descend. Randall mentions this language family in many comics, such as [[890: Etymology]].
|-
| [To the right of the curve Ponytail holds up a hand towards Cueball.] Ponytail: Let’s make our language heavily inflected, so future students have to memorize a zillion verb endings! Cueball: Okay! || 4400 BCE || 0.5 || Ponytail gets the idea to develop the language heavily inflected to make it difficult to remember all the verb endings for future students and Cueball is okay with that. This is a direct reference to the comic [[1709: Inflection]].
|-
| Permanent settlements in the {{w|fertile crescent}} || 4200 BCE || 0.5 || The Fertile Crescent is one of those things you're supposed to remember from grade school. A lot of historic milestones happened there, such as the pyramids of Giza, the code of Hammurabi, and the Abrahamic religions.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 4000 BCE
| Horses domesticated || 3950 BCE || 0.5 || Horse riding was the greatest advance in land travel until the invention of engines. Horses appear in many xkcd comics, such as [[936: Password Strength]].
|-
| {{w|Minoan culture}} arises on Crete || 3700 BCE || 0.5 || Minoan culture invented many strange and wonderful things, such as the Labyrinth at Knossos and {{w|Bull-leaping}}.

|-
| rowspan="4"| 3500 BCE
| {{w|Egyptian mummification}} || 3500 BCE || 0.5 || xkcd has discussed mummification in {{what if|134|What If? 134: Space Burial}}.
|-
| Rise of the {{w|Indus Valley civilization}} || 3300 BCE || 0.5 || The largest bronze-age civilization.
|-
| Invention of {{w|writing}} in {{w|Sumer}} “{{w|prehistory}}” ends, “{{w|history}}” begins || 3200 BCE || 0.5 || Our knowledge of prehistoric events must rely on digging up artifacts and making inferences. After this time, it became possible to find descriptions of past people and events, which is the definition of history. (Old guy in Sumer: Kids these days with their new-fangled stone tablets, instead of using their memory...)
|-
| Earliest human whose name we know (Pharaoh {{w|Iry-Hor}} in Egypt) || 3100 BCE || 0.5 || The first named person we know of today! This was also mentioned as a "cool fact" in the title text of [[1355: Airplane Message]].
|-
| rowspan="5"| 3000 BCE
| {{w|Three Sovereigns and Five Emperors}} period in China || 2800 BCE || 0.4 || The temperature has finally dropped below 0.5°C above the 1961-1990 average after almost 2000 years of cooling from 0.6°C above the 1961-1990 average.
|-
| {{w|Gilgamesh}} || 2700 BCE || 0.4 || Gilgamesh was probably a Sumerian king whose tales were exaggerated into mythology.
|-
| {{w|Imhotep}} || 2600 BCE || 0.4 || Imhotep was not a pharaoh, but a wise commoner who was elevated to chancellor, high priest, and post-mortem divinity.
|-
| {{w|Maya civilization|Mayan}} culture emerges || 2600 BCE || 0.4 || Like the ancient Egyptians, Mayans are remembered for pyramids and {{w|logograph}}s.
|-
| {{w|Great Pyramid}} constructed || 2650 BCE || 0.4 || xkcd has discussed pyramids in [[1717: Pyramid Honey]] and {{what if|95|What If? 95: Pryamid Energy}}.

|-
| rowspan="3"| 2500 BCE
| {{w|Corded Ware culture}} in Europe || 2500 BCE || 0.3 || The term Corded Ware was invented by an archaeologist; no civilization actually called themselves that.
|-
| [To the left of the curve two rock musicians with long hair and electrical guitars are standing on either side of a small gate made of three slabs of stone, one on top of the other two standing stones.] {{w|Stonehenge}} completed || 2200 || 0.3 || This is a reference to the 1984 {{w|mockumentary}} about the fake rock band {{w|This Is Spinal Tap}}. In the movie the band wanted a giant Stonehenge prop 18 feet high, but a writing mistake gives them one that is only 18 inches.
|-
| {{w|Chariots}} developed || 2000 BCE || 0.3 || But {{w|Chariots of Fire}} came much later.

|-
| rowspan="3"| 2000 BCE
| {{w|Alphabetic writing}} developed in Egypt || 1750 BCE || 0.2 || Obligatory reference to xkcd [[1069: Alphabet]].
|-
| Last {{w|mammoth}}s on a tiny Siberian island go extinct || 1650 BCE || 0.2 || Many of the {{w|Pleistocene megafauna}} died in the {{w|Quaternary extinction event}}. Like the {{w|woolly rhino}} (see 12900 BCE) these animals likely became extinct in part due to {{w|Holocene extinction|humans hunting them}}, which may be why Randall included them in the chart. Most of the mammoths died out before 8000 BCE but {{w|Woolly_mammoth#Extinction|some survived in remote areas}} and the last known population died on {{w|Wrangel Island}} in the {{w|Arctic Ocean}} around 2000 BCE, slightly earlier than Randall shows here.
|-
| {{w|Minoan eruption}} || 1600 BCE || 0.2 || This volcano may have led to the downfall of Minoan civilization.

|-
| rowspan="5"| 1500 BCE
| {{w|Iron smelting}} || 1400 BCE || 0.1 || The beginning of the {{w|Iron Age}}.
|-
| {{w|Olmec}} civilization develops in Central America || 1350 BCE || 0.1 || No, Maggie, not Aztec, [http://vimeo.com/34002760 Olmec].
|-
| [A Trojan horse with two Cueball-like guys in front and a third standing on its back. Its back is at three Cueball’s height and its head rises to the level of the Cueball on its back. It stands on a platform with four wheel on the visible side. There is text on the horse] Setting of the ''{{w|Iliad}}'' and the ''{{w|Odyssey}}'' Text on horse: Not a trap || 1250 BCE || 0.1 || A reference to the {{w|Trojan War}} qua the drawing of the {{w|Trojan Horse}}. The horse was a big trap letting the soldiers hidden inside it into {{w|Troy}}. This explains why it has ''Not a trap'' written on it. Else they would not have taken the giant wooden horse present from their sworn enemies into their city just like that... Note that the Trojan horse isn't mentioned in the Iliad, and only recalled in passing by the characters in the Odyssey.
|-
| Invasion of the {{w|Sea peoples}}* * A real thing || 1200 BCE || 0.1 || {{w|Mermaid#One_Thousand_and_One_Nights|Sea people}} might sound like a reference to mythical {{w|mermaid}}s, so Randall feels the need to footnote that this event was ''a real thing'' (as opposed to his Pokémon reference, which he notes is ''not a real fact''). The sea peoples were a seafaring confederation of groups known to have attacked ancient Egypt around this time.
|-
| {{w|Polynesians}} explore the Pacific Ocean || 1000 BCE || 0.1 || {{w|Polynesian navigation}} was surprisingly widespread.

|-
| rowspan="8"| 1000 BCE
| [From 1000 BBC to 1000 CE the temperature is stable and very close to the 1961-1990 average.] || 1000 BCE || 0.1 || The temperature has fallen from the Holocene Optimum by half a degree to just a bit above the the 1961-1990 average. It will stay in this range for the next 2000 years.
|-
| {{w|Solomon}} || 1000 BCE || 0.1 || Solomon may have been a real historical king, but he probably did not threaten to chop a baby in half.
|-
| {{w|Iliad}} and {{w|Odyssey}} composed || 900 BCE || 0.1 || These classic myths were written more than 300 years after their supposed events. Archaeologists believe the city of {{w|Troy}} existed (and was destroyed by war around the right time period), but characters like Helen, Odysseus, and Achilles did not.
|-
| Rise of {{w|Greek city-states}} || 800 BCE || 0.1 || This is ''Sparta'', along with Athens and several others.
|-
| {{w|Neo-Assyrian Empire}} || 800 BCE || 0.1 || Hi, you may remember us from such kings as Adad-nirari and Sennacherib.
|-
| {{w|Ancient Olympic Games|First Olympics}} || 750 BCE || 0.1 || The first of the ancient Olympic Games is traditionally dated to 776 BC.
|-
| {{w|Zapotec civilization|Zapotec}} writing in modern Mexico || 600 BCE || 0.0 || Another Central American culture that fell to the Spanish invasion.
|-
| {{w|Confucius}} || 550 BCE || 0.0 || "He who knows all the answers has not been asked all the questions."

|-
| rowspan="10"| 500 BCE
| The stuff in the {{w|300 (film)|movie ''300''}}, but regular speed and with more clothing || 450 BCE || 0.0 || A reference to the {{w|Battle of Thermopylae}} by comparison with the 2007 movie ''300'' about this battle. The real Spartans wore armor, and real humans don't [http://www.google.com/search?q=300+slow-motion fly through the air in slow motion when struck].
|-
| {{w|Buddha}} || 450 BCE || 0.0 || Randall also mentions other religious figures like {{w|Jesus}} and {{w|Muhammad}}.
|-
| {{w|Nazca Lines}} || 350 BCE || 0.0 || These huge ancient drawings are difficult to see from ground level, leading some people to believe that they were intended for aliens.
|-
| {{w|Alexander the Great}} || 350 BCE || 0.0 || One of the most successful conquerors of the iron age, known for supposedly cutting the {{w|Gordian Knot}}.
|-
| {{w|Mayan hieroglyphics}} || 250 BCE || 0.0 || The {{w|Maya Calendar}} was probably created hundreds of years later.
|-
| {{w|Ashoka the Great}} || 250 BCE || 0.0 || The {{w|Edicts of Ashoka}} proselytized Buddhism across the continent.
|-
| {{w|Paper}} invented || 200 BCE || 0.0 || A significant step up from stone tablets or even papyrus.
|-
| {{w|Asterix}} || 100 BCE || 0.0 || Fictional main character in ''The Adventures of Asterix'', a comic series set around 50 BCE when {{w|Julius Caesar}} conquered {{w|Gaul}}.
|-
| {{w| Teotihuacan|Teotihuacán}} metropolis || 100 BCE || 0.0 || Another ancient city much beloved by archaeologists, even though they don't know who built it.
|-
| {{w|Julius Caesar}} || 50 BCE || 0.0 || Aside from being a conqueror, dictator, and deity, Julius had a big impact on {{w|Julian Calendar|calendars}}. The month of Quintilis was renamed July to honor him, and he was famously assassinated on the ides (middle day) of March.
|-

|-
| rowspan="8"|1 BCE 1 CE
| [Instead of a zero, there are two numbers for each of the two scales before (1 BCE) and after Christ (1 CE)] || 0 CE || -0.1 || Originally the year range went directly from 1 BC to 1 AD. The year zero has since been added for ease of mathematical and astronomical calculations.
|-
| {{w|Roman Empire}} || 1 CE || -0.1 || Julius never held the title "Emperor"; his adoptive son Augustus was the first to do so.
|-
| {{w|Jesus}} || 1 CE || -0.1 || Randall also mentions other religious figures like {{w|Buddha}} and {{w|Muhammad}}.
|-
| [To the left and erupting volcano.] {{w|Pompeii}} || 100 CE || -0.1 || The volcano is {{w|Mount Vesuvius}} which exploded in 79 CE and is famous for burying everyone in the close by city Pompeii preserving peoples bodies inside the huge amount of ash that swallowed the city very rapidly. Today it has given the archeologist lots of knowledge about the culture of that time.
|-
| {{w|Three Kingdoms}} period || 250 CE || -0.1 || Not just a series of movies and video games, but an actual thing that happened in China.
|-
| {{w|Gupta empire}} || 700 CE || -0.1 || Not as great as Ashoka, but still a pretty important time in the history of India.
|-
| Various groups take turns sacking {{w|Rome}} || 550 CE || -0.1 || 500 years is a pretty successful span for an empire.
|-
| {{w|Attila the Hun}} || 550 CE || -0.1 || He probably would not mind being remembered as one of the most infamous barbarians in history.

|-
| rowspan="4"| 500 CE
| {{w|Muhammad}} || 600 CE || 0.0 || Randall also mentions other religious figures like {{w|Buddha}} and {{w|Jesus}}
|-
| {{w|Tang Dynasty}} || 750 CE || 0.0 || A golden age in China, responsible for the development of printing, gunpowder, and many other advances.
|-
| [An arrow to the right of the dotted curve pointing down, takes a swing far out from the curve and then bends back again. The text label next to it breaks into the next 500 period. The dotted curve stays stable at the 1961-1990 average along this arrow.] {{w|Medieval warm period}} in Europe and some northern regions (too regional to affect the global average much) || 900 CE || 0.0 || Changes in ocean currents caused various regions to warm up while others cooled.
|-
| {{w|Leif Eriksson}} || 950 CE || 0.0 || Probably the first European explorer to reach North America.

|-
| rowspan="7"| 1000 CE
| [To the left a drawing of a compass with needle pointing the black end towards north east. There are labels for the four main directions (N, S, W, E) and a label next to it:] {{w|Magnetic compass}} navigation || 1050 CE || 0.0 || It's much easier to sail to the Orient when you can orient yourself.
|-
| [The dotted curve moves to the left towards lower temperature reaching a minimum around 1650 CE of about 0.6°C below the 1961-1990 average at the {{w|Little Ice Age}}.] || 1150 CE || -0.1 || This less than half a degree drop in temperature over 500 years was enough to cause the "Little Ice Age" which resulted in extended ice coverage in the winters in instance Europe. See more below at the entry for the Little Ice Age.
|-
| {{w|Ghengis Khan}} || 1200 CE || -0.2 || Mongol emperor. {{w|Gengar}} is not named after him, but [http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Kangaskhan_(Pokémon) Kangaskhan] and [http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Khal the Khals] are.
|-
| {{w|Zheng He}}’s fleet explores Asia and Africa || 1400 CE || -0.3 || He explored farther than European contemporaries like Dias or de Gama.
|-
| {{w|Aztec Empire|Aztec Alliance}} || 1400 CE || -0.3 || Aztec dominance only lasted a century until Cortes arrived, but their cultural legacy is indisputable.
|-
| {{w|Printing press}} || 1450 CE || -0.3 || {{w|Johannes Gutenburg}} ushered in the {{w|Age of Enlightenment}}.
|-
| {{w|Christopher Columbus|Columbus}} || 1490 CE || -0.3 || The time given here references when Christopher Columbus reached the {{w|Americas|New World}} in 1492. The five events around 1500 CE lies very close together but it fits with Columbus fitted in just before 1500.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 1500 CE
| {{w|European Renaissance}} || 1500 CE || -0.3 || From here on, the chart has labels for each 100 year increment instead of 500, but the scale stays the same. Important events happens so much faster in these last five hundred years, there isn't enough space to write all of them, so Randall has had to be selective. He includes {{w|Isaac Newton}} but leaves out {{w|Albert Einstein}}, includes {{w|airplane}}s but leaves out {{w|car}}s, etc.
|-
| {{w|Shakespeare}} || 1600 CE || -0.4 || xkcd references Shakespeare many times, such as [[79: Iambic Pentameter]] and [[1026: Compare and Contrast]].

|-
| rowspan="2"| 1600
| {{w|Isaac Newton|Newton}} || 1650 CE || -0.4 || Isaac Newton appears in various xkcd comics, such as [[626: Newton and Leibniz]].
|-
| [To the right of the dotted curve there is an arrow pointing down that makes a swing in towards the curve and then back out again. This is the coldest it has been since 9500 BCE. It is labeled:] ”{{w|Little Ice Age}}” || 1650 CE || -0.4 || This was not a true geologic Ice Age, just a slightly chilly period when the temperature fell a fraction of a degree, but still colder than it had been through 11,000 years of human civilization. In Europe the winters were so cold that the river {{w|Thames}} {{w|Little_Ice_Age#Europe|froze over}} hard enough to hold {{w|River Thames frost fairs}} between 1607 and 1814. And in 1658 {{w|Sweden}} crossed the {{w|Danish Straits}} on foot to invade {{w|Copenhagen}} in the {{w|March Across the Belts}}. It was only possible due to the harsh winters of the Little Ice Age, demonstrating how much half a degree of climate change can mean.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 1700
| {{w|Steam engines}} || 1750 CE || -0.4 || The {{w|Age of Steam}} heralded the upsurge of human CO2 emissions.
|-
| {{w|United States Declaration of Independence|Unites States Independence}} || 1770 CE || -0.3 || On July 4, 1776.

|-
| rowspan="3"| 1800
| {{w|Industrial Revolution}} || 1825 CE || -0.3 || Not to be confused with {{w|Industrial music}} such as Nine Inch Nails.
|-
| {{w|Electrical telegraph|Telegraphs}} || 1830 CE || -0.3 || [https://youtu.be/gEGQUgWBQL4?t=56s -. --- .-- --..-- / - .... . / -- --- - .... . .-. / --- ..-. / ... .- -- ..- . .-.. / -- --- .-. ... . / .- .-.. .-- .- -.-- ... / ... . -. - / - .... . / .-.. .- -.. / --- ..- - / --- -. / .- / .... --- .-. ... .]
|-
| [After this the dotted curve becomes solid.] || 1850 CE || -0.3 || From 1850 weather records became sufficiently accurate and widespread to greatly improve the precision of climate measurements. Hence the curve stops being an estimate and thus also stops being a dotted curve and becomes solid.

|-
| rowspan="6"| 1900
| {{w|Airplane}}s || 1900 CE || -0.3 || xkcd discusses airplanes many times, such as [[726: Seat Selection]] and {{what if|30|30: Interplanetary Cessna}}.
|-
| {{w|World Wars}} || 1930 CE || -0.2 || Likewise, there are many xkcds on this topic, such as [[261: Regarding Mussolini]] and {{what if|100|100: WWII Films}}.
|-
| [The solid line takes a step to the right close to the 1961-1990 average. Over the rest of the 1900s it moves closer to the 1961-1990 average, crossing it before 2000 where it almost reaches the maximum temperature of 0.5 °C above the 1961-1990 average from earlier in 8000 BCE.] || 1940 CE || -0.2 || This is what the previous 14000 pixels of comic has been leading up to. After a laborious 20 millennia of gradual and meandering climate change, it should be clear that a full degree of warming in a single century is unprecedented in human history, and very unlikely to be natural variation.
|-
| {{w|Fossil fuel}} CO2 emissions start rapidly increasing || 1950 CE || -0.1 || The infamous [http://www.skepticalscience.com/Hockey-stick-or-hockey-league.html "hockey stick"] starts around here.
|-
| {{w|Nuclear weapons}} || 1950 CE || -0.1 || The Working Group on the 'Anthropocene' suggests dating the {{w|Anthropocene}} epoch from ~1950. The week after this comic [[1736: Manhattan Project]] with a mushroom cloud was released.
|-
| {{w|Internet}} || 1980 CE || 0.1 || The origin of the internet dates back to 1960 but it began growing rapidly in 1980. By placing the invention of the {{w|internet}} at 1980 in the chart, just where the temperature curve starts its most rapid increase, Randall uses this [[552: Correlation|correlation]] to humorously imply that the internet caused the rise in temperature. This is also where the temperature crosses the 1961-1990 average, which has to happen somewhere due to the {{w|Intermediate Value Theorem}}.

|-
| rowspan="2"| 2000
| {{w|Northwest Passage}} opens || 2000 CE || 0.4 || This was dramatic evidence that the climate had changed. When global warming removes enough sea ice to create shipping routes that never existed before, then it is clear to people that ''something'' is changing, even if they disregard who/what is responsible for the change.
|-
|[From here to present day the solid line increases rapidly and in 2016, present day, is almost reaches 1°C above the 1961-1990 average, with about 0.8°C above the 1961-1990 average.] || 2016 CE || 0.8 || '''Notice''': [http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php?a=11&p=2 Warming did not stop] in 1998.

|-
| rowspan="3"| 2016
| | Present day || 2016 CE || 0.8 || Today, just after the two hottest months ever measured since 1850 had ended (July and August 2016), this comic was released with the message displayed very clearly here below. Act now or fry...
|-
| [From here the curve once again becomes dotted as this is the future. After one dot it splits in two and after the first two dots another split between them occurs forming three possible future dotted curves.] || 2016 CE || 0.8 || Here stops the data and the projection into the future begins so the curve again becomes dotted. Three different scenarios are depicted.
|-
|The first curve bending down before the others, and thus to the right of the other two reaches about 1.2°C above the 1961-1990 average and then goes straight down and stops at the 2100 line. An arrow points to it from the left and a label is written partly before and the rest after the 2100 line to the left of the curve:] Best-case scenario assuming immediate massive action to limit emissions || 2100 CE || 1.2 || If humanity does all in its power to stop global warming we might be able to halt the global warming already before 2050 keeping the maximum temperature to just 1.2°C above the 1961-1990 average. Only 0.4°C above today's temperature. (Note that this is not, in fact, the absolute best-case scenario, as it assumes that no new greenhouse gasses are either added to or removed from the atmosphere in the future; the temperature rise could be kept to an even lower level if some or all of the already-emitted greenhouse gasses were removed from the atmosphere.)

|-
| rowspan="2"| 2100
| [The middle curve bends a little down after reaching 1.3°C above the 1961-1990 average, and then continues this path reaching 2°C above the 1961-1990 average in 2100. An arrow point from below to it and a label is written below the curve and below 2100 line:] Optimistic scenario|| 2100 CE || 2.0 || If all the current realistic preventions are implemented, which might not be so realistic, then we may not even stop the warming but slow it down so we "only" reach 2°C above the 1961-1990 average in 2100 CE but it would not stop there. This is half the temperature change experienced since the ice age, but the other way. This was directly referenced in the title text of [[1379: 4.5 Degrees]]: ''That's only HALF an ice age unit (IAU), which is probably no big deal.''
|-
| [The last line continues along the path from the last 16 years of the solid line reaching 4.2°C above the 1961-1990 average at 2100, almost as far on the other side of the 1961-1990 average in 150 years as it took 14,000 years to move from the other side from the start of the chart. Another arrow point to this from below with a label below the curve and below 2100 line:] Current Path || 2100 CE || 4.2 || In this last scary scenario Randall assumes the temperature keeps rising steadily by extrapolating along the slope of the last two to three years. Randall has warned about the hazards of [[Extrapolating]], but this line is in fact [http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html below the worst case predictions]. If this comes true we will reach a temperature increase taking us from the 1961-1990 average and in just 125 years to 4.2°C above this average. That is just as far above this average in that short time span as the ice age temperature was below. And it took more than 11,000 years for nature to reach such an increase. Randall already contemplated what this would be like in the +1 ice age unit (IAU) panel of [[1379: 4.5 Degrees]] two years ago, as well as in [[164: Playing Devil's Advocate to Win]] almost 10 years ago. He may get to ''enjoy quite a ride'' as he "wished" for back then.

There is no reason to assume the temperature will not keep rising past 2100 CE, so the {{w|Cretaceous Thermal Maximum|"Hothouse Earth"}} of the early {{w|Cretaceous period}} mentioned in the 4.5 degree comics +2 IAU panel might come to pass in future centuries if we continue on our current path. On the bright side, modern civilization might collapse if this trend keeps up, which would drastically cut our releases of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere. But then again, positive feedback from methane in melting {{w|permafrost}} might take over... Good luck Earth.
|}

===Sources===
The image attributes climate data sources as "Shakun et al. (2012), Marcott et al. (2013), Annan and Hargreaves (2013), HadCRUT4, IPCC":
* Shakun, Jeremy D.; Clark, Peter U.; He, Feng; Marcott, Shaun A.; Mix, Alan C.; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Schmittner, Andreas; Bard, Edouard (2012-04-04). [https://web.archive.org/web/20160520043848/http://www.atm.damtp.cam.ac.uk/mcintyre/shakun-co2-temp-lag-nat12.pdf "Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation"] (PDF). ''Nature''. '''484''' (7392): 49–54. doi:[https://doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature10915 10.1038/nature10915]. ISSN [https://www.worldcat.org/issn/1476-4687 1476-4687]. Archived from [https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10915 the original] on 2016-05-20.
* Marcott, Shaun A.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Clark, Peter U.; Mix, Alan C. (2013-03-08). [https://web.archive.org/web/20130412021608/https://content.csbs.utah.edu/~mli/Economics%207004/Marcott_Global%20Temperature%20Reconstructed.pdf "A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years"] (PDF). ''Science''. doi:[https://doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.1228026 10.1126/science.1228026]. Archived from [https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.1228026 the original] on 2013-04-12.
* Annan, J. D.; Hargreaves, J. C. (2013-02-13). [https://web.archive.org/web/20200728042751/https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/367/2013/cp-9-367-2013.pdf "A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum"] (PDF). ''Climate of the Past''. '''9''' (1): 367–376. doi:[https://doi.org/10.5194%2Fcp-9-367-2013 10.5194/cp-9-367-2013]. ISSN [https://www.worldcat.org/issn/1814-9324 1814-9324]. Archived from [https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/367/2013/ the original] on 2020-07-28.
* {{w|HadCRUT|HadCRUT (Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit Temperature)}} - [http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/ Official site]
* {{w|Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}} - [http://www.ipcc.ch/ Official site]

==Transcript==
'''Note''' there are several spelling errors in the comic, so please do only correct spelling errors that are not part of the comic! See more in the [[#Trivia|trivia section]].
:[A large heading, followed by a sub-caption. Below that two lines with a statement in between:]
:<big>A timeline of Earth’s average temperature</big>
:since the last ice age glaciation
:When people say “The climate has changed before,” these are the kinds of changes they’re talking about.

:[A very long chart below the headings above is headed with a label for the scale of the X-axis above the chart. Below that a sub-caption. To the left an arrow down to the top of the chart pointing to the dotted curves starting point (at -4.3°C below the 1961-1990 average) with a label above the arrow. And arrow pointing left to the left of the center and another pointing right to the right of the center has labels. Below these is the temperature scale of the X-axis, with 9 ticks between the borders each with a label ranging from -4 to +4°C compared to the 1961-1990 average, but with another step in each direction not labeled towards to axis so the chart covers -5 to +5°C compared to the 1961-1990 average.]
:'''Temperature'''
: Compared to the 1961-1990 average
:Start
:Colder
:Warmer
:-4°C -3°C -2°C -1°C 0°C +1°C +2°C +3°C +4°C

:[To the right of the chart is a gray text standing on the side down along the outer boarder of the chart with the sources for the chart:]
: Source: Shakun et. al. (2012) , Marcott et. al. (2013), Annan and Hargreaves (2013) , HadCRUT4, IPCC 

:[The chart is split in 10 columns by the temperature scale and the borders. The two central columns are white, and then from there to the left the background becomes a faded color that changes from light blue to blue at the edge in four steps. Similarly to the right the color changes from light red to red. To the left there is a time scale taking 500 years leaps from 20,000 BCE all the way to year 1, where there are two years, one for BBC and one for CE. The 500 year leaps continue until 1500 CE and from there the steps are down to 100 years until 2100 with also present day 2016 labeled. After 1500 the CE is omitted. The labels stop there, but there is space below covering down to 2200 CE. There is clearly visible division line across the chart on the level of each of the 500 step, and fainter lines for each of the 100 steps all the way even though only the last 5 of these 100 steps are labeled. There is a similar clear line at 2016. Below each step on the Y-axis is noted, and then any text starting before the next step is noted below indented. If there are extra image belonging to text this is indented once more. The graph that the whole chart is about is a dotted line that begins at the “start” point mentioned above at -4.3°C and then begins to go straight down. It will change left and right all the way down. To being with all text and most drawings are to right of the dotted curve. Whenever something is to the left it will be noted. When it says to the left above something, and then nothing over the next, then the next will be to the right. Only at the very bottom are there more entries to the left than right. ]
:20000 BCE
::[An arrow goes from the dotted line to the central line at 0°C. In the middle of the line there is a temperature label:]
::4.3°C
::At the start of our timeline, 22,000 years ago, Earth is 4°C colder than during the late 20th century.
::Boston is buried under almost a mile of ice, and the glaciers reach as far south as New York City.
:::[The Statue of Liberty is shown in front of a glacier front. A very tiny Cueball is on top of the glacier. The drawing is labeled and so is also the glacier.]
:::New York
:::Ice
:::[Cueball (wearing a knit cap with a pom-pom is seen walking in a snowy landscape leaving black footprints behind him. He walks through the white central part of the chart.]
:::[The skyline of Boston is shown with two clear buildings among all the other. Above it is a line and in between this area has been filled with thin lines. The drawing is labeled and so is this area. Also the skyline has an arrow pointing at it with a label:]
:::Boston
:::Ice
:::Modern skyline

:19500 BCE
::But the world is about to warm up.
::By this time, humans have already spread across Africa, Eurasia, and Australia.
::They’ve created painting, pottery, rope, and bows and arrows, but haven’t developed writing or farming.

:19000 BCE
::Changes in the Earth’s orbit mean that more sunlight reaches the polar ice…
:::[A line chart with a labeled Y-axis with three labeled ticks. The curve starts up and then goes down five times and up four times ending down. There is one plateau towards the end compared to the rest of the curve where the ups and downs are quite alike.]
:::Summer sun W/m2 at 60°N
:::550
:::500
:::450

:18500 BCE
::[A map of the world. At the top is a light gray area covering North America, Greenland and northern Europe and most of the northern part of Russia. A similar gray area covers Antarctica. There are two labels in the gray area above and one in the gray area below:]
::Ice Ice
::Ice

:18000 BCE
::…And the ice sheets start to melt.

:17500 BCE
::Temperatures have been creeping upward, but around this point, CO2 levels start to climb…

:17000 BCE
::…And then the warming speeds up.

:16500 BCE
::[Cueball is standing with a spear just the right of the graph talking to a rabbit.]
::Cueball: Still pretty cold.

:16000 BCE
::[Megan points to the graph to the right of her and between her and Ponytail standing on the other side. Mean is the first drawing on the left side of the dotted curve, which has hardly moved since the beginning, only to just on the other side of 4°C.]
::[In the right part of the chart is an explanation of the data. Below the first two lines there are four drawings each showing possible temperature swings in reality compared to the smoothed data that represents the dotted curve of the entire chart. The dotted curve is shown in all four drawings and a thin line is shown running along it but with much more fluctuation left and right on the first two, a large spike right on the third and a large bump way right on the fourth. Above these there are two labels. The first labels is inside a bracket that covers the first three, and the last label is for the last drawing. Below is a list of sources.]
::Limits of this data:
::Short warming or cooling spikes might be “smoothed out” by these reconstructions but only if they’re small or brief enough.
:::Possible Unlikely
::Reconstructions are from Shakun (2012) and Marcott (2013), scaled to Annan + Hargreaves (2013) estimate for the last glacial period.

:15500 BCE
::In what is now France, humans paint murals on the walls of the Lascaux caves
::[Hairy paints three animals, two with horns, and two humans, Cueball holding hand with Hairy who has a spear. On the other side of the central line Megan writes three letters, the last of which is reversed.]
:::NIИ

:15000 BCE
::Ice sheets around Alaska shrink, exposing a land bridge between Asia and North America
::[From around the bottom if this section and down to 11500 BCE the dotted curve moved steadily to the right towards warmed temperature peaking close to -1.5°C. Before this the temperature had not moved much away from that at the start.]

:14500 BCE
::[Cueball walks right looking back at the graph behind him. Megan walks in front of him pointing further right.]
::Cueball: Cool.
::Humans reach North America.

:14000 BCE
::The edge of the ice withdraws from New York City and retreats North.
::[A large glacier front speaks in a speech bubble with an arrow pointing at it. Behind is there are four peaks in the horizon and in front of it three small melting pools and some rocks on the ground.]
::Glacier: ''That’s it! I’m moving to Canada!''

:13500 BCE
::Humans domesticate dogs
::(Date uncertain, may be much earlier)
::[Megan and Cueball is watching a wolf looking at them.]
::Megan: Okay, you can live in our homes and we’ll feed you, but we’ll still get mad f you poop on the floor.
::Wolf: Deal.
::Cueball: And we get to breed you to be tiny and dress you in little costumes.
::Wolf: …Wait.

:13000 BCE
::[Randall did not use the normal spelling for Woolly Rhino, but this is an accepted alternative spelling:]
::Wooly Rhino goes extinct
::Oregon is scoured by huge floods as glacial dams burst and lakes of meltwater flow to the sea

:12500 BCE
::Ice sheets withdraw from Chicago

:12000 BCE
::Humans settle Abu Hureyra in Syria

:11500 BCE
::[An arrow on the left side of the dotted curve is pointing down along the dotted curve and to the left indicate temperature is declining again, meaning the dotted curve now moves left to colder temperatures. This only continues until 10500 BCE. It is only the second time something is noted on the left side after Megan at 16000 BCE]
::Temperatures start to decline, mainly in the Northern hemisphere
::This may be caused by changes in ocean circulation due to the floods of cold fresh meltwater flowing into the Atlantic as the North American ice sheet melts.
::This cooler period is called the Younger Dryas

:11000 BCE
::[This is the first text to the left of the dotted curve:]
::Humans reach Argentina

:10500 BCE
::[An arrow pointing down along the right side of the dotted curve and to the right indicate temperature is increasing again, meaning the dotted curve now moves right to hotter temperatures. This continues until 8000 BCE where it levels out just above 0°C.]
::Warming resumes
::Human settlements at Jericho

:10000 BCE
::First development of farming

:9500 BCE
::Saber-toothed cat goes extinct
::[To the left:]
::Horses disappear from North America

:9000 BCE
::[To the left, Randall spelled Pokémon wrong:]
:::Last North American Pokemon go extinct
:::[Cueball with a speak and Megan is looking up at this last “fact”.]
:::Megan: That is not a real fact.
::Temperatures reach modern levels
::Rising seas cut off the land bridge between North America and Asia
::Cattle domesticated

:8500 BCE
::Ice sheets retreat across the Canadian border
::Temperatures start to level out slightly above 1961-1990 levels

:8000 BCE
::[The above sentence breaks over the 8000 BCE line. From here a maximum in temperature on the chart is reached at 0.5°C which will not be overtaken until 2000 CE. It stays almost constant here until 5000 BCE where a slight cooling begins.]

:7500 BCE
::[To the left:]
::This warm, stable period is called the Holocene Climate Optimum
::[To the left:]
::Jiahu settled in China

:7000 BCE
::Final collapse of the North American ice sheet leads to rapid 2-4m sea level rise…
::[A small arrow points down and left to the right of the dotted curve. There is a small decrease in temperature but it is very small and would have been missed without the arrow and label.]
::…And a period of cooling in the Northern hemisphere

:6500 BCE
::[To the left:]
::As seas rise to near their modern levels, Britain is cut off from mainland Europe

:6000 BCE
::Humans develop copper metalworking

:5500 BCE
::[To the left:]
::Massive volcanic eruption in Oregon creates crater lake
::Gold metalworking

:5000 BCE
::[To the left:]
::Invention of the wheel
::[To the left. To the right of the dotted curve is an arrow pointing down and slightly left. From here temperature decreases very slowly but steadily from 0.5°C until 1000 BCE where a stable plateau is reached around 0°C.]
::Earth begins to cool slowly mainly due to regular cycles in its orbit

:4500 BCE
::[To the left:]
:: Proto-Indo-European language develops
:::[To the right of the curve Ponytail holds up a hand towards Cueball.]
:::Ponytail: Let’s make our language heavily inflected, so future students have to memorize a zillion verb endings!
:::Cueball: Okay!
::[To the left:]
::Permanent settlements in the fertile crescent

:4000 BCE
::Horses domesticated
::[To the left:]
::Minoan culture arises on Crete

:3500 BCE
::Egyptian mummification
::Rise of the Indus Valley civilization
::[To the left:]
::Invention of writing in Sumer “prehistory” ends, “history” begins
::Earliest human whose name we know
::(Pharaoh Iry-Hor in Egypt)

:3000 BCE
::''Three Sovereigns and five emperors'' period in China
::Gilgamesh
::[To the left:]
::Imhotep
::Mayan culture emerges
::[To the left:]
::Great Pyramid constructed

:2500 BCE
::Corded Ware culture in Europe
::[To the left of the curve two rock musicians with long hair and electrical guitars are standing on either side of a small gate made of three slabs of stone, one on top of the other two standing stones.]
::Stonehenge completed
::Chariots developed

:2000 BCE
::[To the left:]
::Alphabetic writing developed in Egypt
::Last mammoths on a tiny Siberian island go extinct
::[To the left:]
::Minoan eruption

:1500 BCE
::[To the left:]
::Iron smelting
::Olmec civilization develops in Central America
::[A Trojan horse with two Cueball-like guys in front and a third standing on its back. Its back is at three Cueball’s height and its head rises to the level of the Cueball on its back. It stands on a platform with four wheel on the visible side. There is text on the horse]
:::Setting of the ''Iliad'' and the ''Odyssey''
:::Text on horse: Not a trap
::[To the left:]
::Invasion of the Sea peoples*
::* A real thing
::Polynesians explore the Pacific Ocean

:1000 BCE
::[From 1000 BBC to 1000 CE the temperature is stable and very close to 0°C.]
::[To the left:]
::Solomon
::[Randall spelled Iliad wrongly this time:]
::Illiad and Odyssey composed
::[To the left:]
::Rise of Greek city-states
::Neo-Assyrian empire
::[To the left:]
::First Olympics
::Zapotec writing in modern Mexico
::[To the left:]
::Confucius

:500 BCE
::[To the left:]
::The stuff in the 300 (film)|movie ''300'', but regular speed and with more clothing
::Buddha
::Nazca Lines
::[To the left:]
::Alexander the Great
::[To the left:]
::Mayan hieroglyphics
::Ashoka the Great
::[To the left:]
::Paper invented
::[To the left:]
::Asterix
::Teotihuacán metropolis
::[To the left:]
::Julius Caesar

:[At the year 0, there is instead two numbers for each of the two scales before and after Christ:]
:1 BCE
:1 CE
::[To the left:]
::Roman Empire
::Jesus
::[To the left and erupting volcano.]
::Pompeii
::Three Kingdoms period
::[To the left:]
::Gupta empire
::[To the left:]
::Various groups take turns sacking Rome
::[Randall spelled Attila wrong:]
::Atilla the Hun

:500 CE
::Muhammad
::[To the left:]
::Tang Dynasty
::[An arrow to the right of the dotted curve pointing down, takes a swing far out from the curve and then bends back again. The text label next to it breaks into the next 500 period. The dotted curve stays stable at 0°C along this arrow.]
::Medieval warm period in Europe and some northern regions (too regional to affect the global average much)
::[To the left:]
::Leif Eriksson

:1000 CE
::[The dotted curve moves to the left towards lower temperature reaching a minimum around 1650 of about -0.6°C at the Little Ice Age.]
::[To the left a drawing of a compass with needle pointing the black end towards north east. There are labels for the four main directions and a label next to it:]
:::N
:::W E
:::S
:::Magnetic compass navigation
::[To the left:]
::Ghengis Khan
::Zheng He’s fleet explores Asia and Africa
::[To the left:]
::Aztec Alliance
::[To the left:]
::Printing press
::[To the left:]
::Columbus

:1500 CE
::European Renaissance
::[To the left:]
::Shakespeare

:1600
::[To the left:]
::Newton
::[To the right of the dotted curve there is an arrow pointing down that makes a swing in towards the curve and then back out again. At -0.6°C this is the coldest it has been since 9500 BCE. It is labeled:]
::”Little Ice Age”

:1700
::Steam engines
::[To the left:]
::Unites States Independence

:1800
::Industrial Revolution
::[To the left:]
::Telegraphs
::[After this the dotted curve becomes solid.]

:1900
::[To the left, and on the line for 1900:]
::Airplanes
::[To the left:]
::World Wars
::[The solid line takes a step to the right close to 0°C. Over the rest of the 1900s it moves closer to 0°C crossing it before 2000 where it almost reaches the maximum temperature of 0.5 °C from earlier in 8000 BCE.]
::Fossil fuel CO2 emissions start rapidly increasing
::[To the left:]
::Nuclear weapons
::[To the left:]
::Internet

:2000
::Northwest Passage opens
::[From here to present day the solid line increases rapidly and in 2016 present day is almost reaches 1°C, with about 0.8°C.]

:2016
::[To the left on the line for 2016:]
::Present day
::[From here the curve once again becomes dotted as this is the future. After one dot it splits in two and after the first two dots another split between them occurs forming three possible future dotted curves. The first curve bending down before the others, and thus to the right of the other two reaches about 1.2°C and then goes straight down and stops at the 2100 line. An arrow points to it from the left and a label is written patly before and the rest after the 2100 line to the left of the curve:]
::Best-case scenario assuming immediate massive action to limit emissions

:2100
::[The middle curve bends a little down after reaching 1.3°C and then continues this path reaching 2°C in 2100. An arrow point from below to it and a label is written below the curve and below 2100 line:]
::Optimistic scenario
::[The last line continues along the path from the last 16 years of the solid line reaching 4.2°C at 2100, almost as far on the other side of 0°C in 150 years as it took 14000 years to move from the other side from the start of the chart. Another arrow point to this from below with a label below the curve and below 2100 line:]
::Current Path

==Trivia==
*There have been several ''[[:Category:Large drawings|large drawings]]'' in the history of xkcd, some of which are bigger than this one (for instance [[1110: Click and Drag]]).
**Among those that can be viewed in one go, without downloading a larger file or moving around, this is by far the longest.
**The next longest is probably [[482: Height]].
*The timeline starts at 20,000 BCE (22,000 years ago) and ends at 2100 CE, thus covering 22,100 years.
*There are several spelling mistakes.
**Most obvious is the second time Randall wrote the word "Iliad," because he just spelled it correctly at 1500 BCE and then spelled it ''Illiad'' at 1000 BCE with two "L"s.
**Attila the Hun becomes ''Atilla the Hun'' with ''one'' T and ''two'' L's.
**Pokémon is spelled ''Pokemon'', but then again, that is not so strange for Randall (see [[1647: Diacritics]]). Despite that, he usually spells it correctly, as in [[1705|1705: Pokémon Go]].
**Note that the fact that woolly rhinoceros becomes ''Wooly rhino'' with only one l is not a spelling mistake but an alternative spelling of the word.
*The following notable facts are absent
**1850: methodical temperature record begins. However, this fact is indirectly indicated when the temperature curve becomes solid around 1850 and until present day.
**The entire swing period between 20 and 200 thousand years prior to now would depict temperature swings with increasing frequency and amplitude (ref geological record). But of course, this could not be included in a comic that only goes back to 20,000 BCE.
**During much of the 300 million years prior to that, the Earth was significantly warmer than now. However, the data's temporal precision decreases with age; seemingly abrupt changes millions of years ago might have happened over centuries or millennia. Hence, the older data is not usable to compare rates of change.

===Popularity of comic===
This comic became popular with a much broader audience than most xkcd comics. It was discussed admiringly by news sites such as [http://www.popsci.com/xkcd-earth-average-temperature-timeline Popular Science], [http://reason.com/blog/2016/09/14/send-around-this-xkcd-climate-change-web Reason], [http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/09/13/xkcd_takes_on_global_warming.html Slate], [http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/new-comic-masterfully-shows-how-climate-has-changed-through-time-180960451/ Smithsonian], [http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2016/09/13/heres-22000-years-of-climate-changes-in-a-single-comic/ Forbes], [https://www.vox.com/2016/9/12/12891814/climate-change-xkcd-graphic Vox], [https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/09/14/493925781/epic-climate-cartoon-goes-viral-but-it-has-one-key-problem NPR], [https://qz.com/780391/xkcd-tells-the-entire-history-of-humanity-and-climate-change-in-one-cartoon-chart/ Quartz], [https://www.sciencealert.com/why-4-5-million-years-of-fluctuating-global-temperatures-can-t-explain-climate-change-today Science Alert] and [https://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-xkcd-comic-20696 Climate Central]. It was promoted by famous individuals such as [https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/775632728548970500 Elon Musk] and even [https://twitter.com/unfccc/status/776129715799224320 twitted by the UN council on Climate Change], and obviously hated on by vocal {{rw|climate_change|climate change deniers}} and {{rw|crank|cranks}} such as [https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/53poul/josh_takes_on_xkcds_climate_timeline/ Anthony Watts]{{rw|Anthony_Watts|debunked}} and [http://joannenova.com.au/2016/09/how-to-make-climate-graphs-look-scary-a-reply-to-xkcd/ Joanne Nova]{{rw|Joanne_Nova|debunked}}

Saying the "dotted line comes from computer models" is a bit inaccurate. Prehistoric temperature reconstructions are based on lots of measurements from lots of places around the planet: ice cores, lake and ocean sediments, etc. which are the best proxy records of climate change. From those measurements, one infers temperature, so [[Randall Munroe]] [https://www.scpr.org/news/2016/09/15/64670/epic-climate-cartoon-goes-viral-but-it-has-one-key/#comment-2900724860 may be more correct than he realises]. Calling that process computer modeling stretches the meaning of the phrase. For more {{rw|rationalist}} critique of this chart not driven by the agenda of pushing {{rw|pseudoscientific}} beliefs which are against the worldwide consensus, see [https://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-xkcd-comic-20696 t][https://reason.com/2016/09/14/send-around-this-xkcd-climate-change-web/ h][https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/09/14/493925781/epic-climate-cartoon-goes-viral-but-it-has-one-key-problem i][https://www.scpr.org/news/2016/09/15/64670/epic-climate-cartoon-goes-viral-but-it-has-one-key/ s] and most insightfully, [https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/09/13/everybody-always-gets-this-wrong-even-smart-people this].

*Due to increased interest, Randall decided to push the release of the next comic [[1733: Solar Spectrum]] one day back for a rare [[:Category:Thursday comics|Thursday release]] instead of the scheduled [[:Category:Wednesday comics|Wednesday release]].
**He [http://web.archive.org/web/20160915101125/http://xkcd.com/ noted this] above [[:image:1732_Earth_Temperature_Timeline_header_text_changed_for_all_comics.png|all the comics]] in the [[:image:1732_Earth_Temperature_Timeline_header_text_changed.png|header text on xkcd]]:
::''Note: Since a lot of new people are here looking for this chart today,''
::''I'll be posting Wednesday's comic on Thursday instead.''
:*Before that, the [http://web.archive.org/web/20160912181546/https://xkcd.com/ normal heading] with the release day of xkcd was shown.
:*This was (of course) still there Tuesday the [http://web.archive.org/web/20160913231501/http://xkcd.com/ day after] the release, because it was first on Wednesday there were reason to note the delay.
:*It stayed in place even [[:image:1732_Earth_Temperature_Timeline_header_text_changed_also_when_next_comic_was_released.png|for some time after]] the "Wednesday" comic was released on Thursday, but was [http://web.archive.org/web/20160915154605/http://xkcd.com/ then removed] before [[:image:1732_Earth_Temperature_Timeline_header_text_back_to_normal_shortly_after_next_comic_was_released.png|noon (EST)]] on Thursday.
:**Randall did thus not post a link to this comic in the header text for new visitors to use, only giving them that one extra day.
:*Even though the next comic was released on a Thursday, the scheduled Friday comic [[1734: Reductionism]] was still released as planned.
:**This was also the first time this occurred on xkcd - see [[1734:_Reductionism#Trivia|this trivia item]] from the Friday comic.
*On 2019-3-1, this comic became one of the six [[Design of xkcd.com|footer]] comics.
==== Removal of warning and footnote ====
*This comic's popularity was possibly the reason that both the more-than-10-year-old [[xkcd warning]] as well as the [[footnote#Original_footnote|original footnote]] was [[footnote#Removal_of_original_footnote|removed]] on the day of this comic's release.
**The next footnote was added 22 days later.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Large drawings]]
[[Category:Charts]]
[[Category:Timelines]]
[[Category:Line graphs]]
[[Category:Maps]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]] 
[[Category:Multiple Cueballs]]
[[Category:Climate change]]
[[Category:Science]]
[[Category:Animals]]
[[Category:Music]] 
[[Category:Fiction]] 
[[Category:Sport]] 
[[Category:Religion]] 
[[Category:Internet]]
[[Category:Pokémon]]
[[Category:Footer comics]]
[[Category:Puns]] 
[[Category:Volcanoes]]
[[Category:Nuclear weapons]]

1179: ISO 8601

2022-02-01T06:52:05Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1179
| date = February 27, 2013
| title = ISO 8601
| image = iso_8601.png
| titletext = ISO 8601 was published on 06/05/88 and most recently amended on 12/01/04.
}}

==Explanation==
When abbreviating the date into numerical form, {{w|Date format by country|various areas of the world}} tend to list the year, month, and day in different orders (as well as with different delimiting symbols), which can cause confusion particularly when the day value is 12 or lower allowing it to be easily interpreted as the month and vice versa. As a [https://www.businessstudynotes.com/marketing/marketing-management/purpose-structure-public-service-advertisement-psa/ public service announcement], this comic states that there is in fact one international standard for writing numeric dates, set by the {{w|International Organization for Standardization}} in its {{w|ISO 8601}} standard: YYYY-MM-DD.

The comic then proceeds to list several discouraged ways of writing out the date of the comic's publication, as they do not match the standard. It begins with several commonly used ones in countries around the world, but then begins to list increasingly uncommon ways, ranging from strange (Roman numerals) to quirky (binary, Unix time) to essentially impossible (painting the numbers onto a black cat).

The title text provides a perfect example of the kind of ambiguity that can arise when non-standard formats are used. The ISO standard was in fact published on 1988-06-05 and amended on 2004-12-01. This is mentioned in the title text in MM/DD/YY format; however, there is no way to naturally figure this out, particularly with the second date.

With the year truncated to two digits and all three numbers at 12 or lower, the date referring to December 1, 2004 (the digits pairs 12, 01 and 04) has a number of misinterpretations. Usually 12th Jan '04 (if written as US-style but read as European, or vice-versa) but with ISO-influenced "YY MM DD" ordering as one side or other of the misunderstanding it can easily become the 12th day of April 2001, the 4th day of December 2001 and the 4th of January 2012. It takes two such communication errors to 'become' the 1st day of April 2012.

Date formats were again the subject in [[1340: Unique Date]] and [[2562: Formatting Meeting]].

The other mentioned formats are:

{| class=wikitable
! Date !! Explanation
|-
| 02/27/2013
| MM/DD/YYYY, used mostly in the United States.
|-
| 02/27/13
| MM/DD/YY, same as above but with the year shortened to two digits.
|-
| 27/02/2013
| DD/MM/YYYY, used variously in South America, Canada ({{w|Date_and_time_notation_in_Canada|officially uses ISO 8601}}), Australia, New Zealand and much of Europe.
|-
| 27/02/13
| DD/MM/YY, same as above but with the year shortened to two digits.
|-
| 20130227
| YYYYMMDD, same as ISO 8601 without delimiting punctuation. Allowed by the standard. Technically not ambiguous but is hard to read as a date at first glance.
|-
| 2013.02.27
| YYYY.MM.DD, used in Japan, South Korea and Hungary. Same as ISO 8601 except with different punctuation.
|-
| 27.02.13
| DD.MM.YY, used in Germany, Russia, and others.
|-
| 27-02-13
| DD-MM-YY, used in Denmark, Netherlands, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, and others.
|-
| 27.2.13
| D.M.YY. It is common in several areas to abbreviate the month or day to a single digit and drop the leading zero when possible.
|-
| 2013. II. 27.
| YYYY. MM. DD., with month as {{w|Roman numerals}}, used in Hungary.
|-
| 27⁄2-13
| D⁄M-YY, traditional format in Denmark, Norway and Sweden
|-
| 2013.158904109
| Year and decimal fraction of year. 0.158904109 is a decimal approximation of 58/365, with February 27 being the 58th day of the year. This format may be easier to read for computers/programs in some contexts, but is difficult for humans to interpret.
|-
| MMXIII-II-XXVII
| The ISO 8601 standard but written in Roman numerals. Never used as a traditional standard anywhere as it is hard to read, parse, and interpret for no benefit.
|-
| MMXIII LVII⁄CCCLXV
| Year followed by its partial fraction 57/365, all in Roman numerals. Equally useless as the above. As a note, apparently this 'standard' is different from the decimal fraction two rows above, as the decimal fraction notation uses the ''end'' of the day (first day of the year is 1/365 while the last is 365/365), while this uses the ''beginning'' (first day is 0/365 and last is 364/365).
|-
| 1330300800
| {{w|Unix time|UNIX Timestamp}}, a standard method of storing absolute time in many computer systems and defined as the number of seconds since 00:00:00 on 1970-01-01 (UTC). The Unix time listed here appears to mistakenly be for '''2012'''-02-27, which is also mentioned by [[Randall]] in the original transcript. The Unix Timestamp for 2013-02-27 would be 1361923200.
|-
| ((3+3)×(111+1)-1)×3/3-1/33
| A useless format where the numbers 2013, 2, and 27 written as needlessly long arithmetic expressions using just the digits 1 and 3. For additional confusion, the values are delimited by slashes, enabling confusion with the fraction bar. (If evaluated literally, the entire expression evaluates to 670.963, or 671 minus 1 divided by 27.)
|-
|    2  272013
| A nearly impossible to read date "format" that can be considered a parody "compromise" between different formats: rather than argue about the order in which the year, month, and day should be, they are simply all written on top of each other. As a "bonus", there is also no arguing over which separator character to use.
|-
| 10/11011/1101
| The US mm/dd/yy format in {{w|Binary number|binary}}, corresponding to 2/27/13. Never used for obvious reasons.
|-
| 02/27/20/13
| MM/DD/CC/YY, where CC stands for century. This format is never used.{{Citation needed}} Note that while months and days count starting from 1, centuries and years in this format count from 0 for extra confusion. But the CC value is widely used on many operating systems to distinguish between the 20th and 21st century, represented by the values "19" and "20" because 1950 belongs to the 20th century.
|-
| <ruby><rb>0</rb><rb>1</rb><rb>2</rb><rb>3</rb><rb>7</rb><rt>2</rt><rt>3</rt><rt>1</rt><rt>4</rt><rtc style="ruby-position: under"><rt>5</rt><rt></rt><rt>67</rt><rt></rt><rt>8</rt></rtc></ruby>
| An obfuscated format where the small numbers indicate the positions where the large digits should be placed. In this reading, 0 is used at positions 2 and 5, 1 is used on position 3, etc.; the result being 20130227
|-
| [A hissing black cat with "2-27-13" painted on it]
| In Western cultures, black cats and the number 13 are associated with bad luck. The cat might also just be angry that someone covered it in paint.
|}

==Transcript==
:Public Service Announcement:

:Our different ways of writing dates as numbers can lead to online confusion. That's why in 1988 ISO set a global standard numeric date format. This is '''''the''''' correct way to write numeric dates:

::2013-02-27

:The following formats are therefore discouraged:
:*02/27/2013
:*02/27/13
:*27/02/2013
:*27/02/13
:*20130227
:*2013.02.27
:*27.02.13
:*27-02-13
:*27.2.13
:*2013. II. 27.
:*27⁄2-13
:*2013.158904109
:*MMXIII-II-XXVII
:*MMXIII LVII⁄CCCLXV
:*1330300800
:*((3+3)×(111+1)-1)×3/3-1/33
:*   2  272013 [the numbers 2013, 02, and 27 written overlapping each other]
:*10/11011/1101
:*02/27/20/13
:*2053112674378
:*[A black cat with 2-27-13 scrawled across its body in dripping white paint.]
:**Cat: ''Hissss''

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Math]]

2575: What If? 2

2022-02-01T06:47:31Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2575
| date = January 31, 2022
| title = What If? 2
| image = what_if_2.png
| titletext = CLARIFICATION: By 9/13, I mean September 13th, not the 9th day of Jancember, the cursed 13th month that exists between December and January in the transdimensional temporal plane.
}}

*This comic came out just a few minutes after the [[Countdown in header text]] finished. The countdown was to the revelation in this comic!
==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a RESIDENT OF JANCEMBER - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic is [[Randall]]'s way of announcing and [[:Category:Book promotion|promoting]] his new book, ''what If? 2'', based on his [[what if?]] blog and following his first what if book.

The entire comic is a link to a [https://xkcd.com/what-if-2/ what if? 2: the book] page on {{xkcd}}. And the just added [[xkcd_Header_text#2022-01-31_-_What_if.3F_2|xkcd Header text]] also links to this.

Apart from promoting the book, the comic also explains why he ended up writing a sequel. After the first book came out Randall was flooded with ''what if?'' questions. Presumable mainly from his readers via e-mail, but his friends and families also started texting him with these questions. Some of these text are displayed in the comic, but only partially, so none of the six question text can be read. But where one might think that this would become tiresome, Randall instead tells the readers the opposite: "Honestly, I love it."

He then continues to praise the quality of the questions, mentioning no less than nine examples of what the questions were about. And in the process ensures the reader that planets, including the Earth, will be destroyed multiple times in his new book. At the end he lets the readers know that some of the features of the first book, with short answer sections and disturbing questions (likely not answered), are also included in this book.

He also states that a few of his favorites from the what if? site have been included. So it is not all new material. From the book stores it seems like he for instance includes his very last online what if? {{what if|156|Earth-Moon Fire Pole}}, which was released on 2018-05-21, almost four years before this comic was released. And by the time the book is released, it will be almost four years and four months since the last article on what if?

The final part of the comic is a picture of the book that both makes it clear when the book is released and how to preorder it already now. This it on the link to the xkcd page, that the entire comic and header text links to.

Randall ensured the maximum possible attention to his announcement by placing a [[Countdown in header text|countdown]] in the [[xkcd_Header_text#2022-01-10_-_Standard_text_with_countdown|header]] about three weeks prior to the announcement. This has caused a lot of speculation as to what would be revealed on the day of this comic's release 2022-01-31. The timer was inside a panel at the top right of the xkcd Header text together with the standard header text: ''xkcd updates every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday''. Inside the panel a picture began emerging after the first day, but the picture only changed approximately once every four hours. After a few weeks was it certain that it was a plane that was being revealed. And on the second to last day, around day twenty, it was clear that it featured a ''T. rex''-like dinosaur ''en silhouette'' standing on top of the aircraft, apparently trying to eat its way into the fuselage, and it might have been possible to guess the relation to the "what if?" canon. On the day before the announcement on xkcd, however, [[Countdown_in_header_text#Blow_up_by_Amazon|Amazon made visible a preorder page for the book]], so the answer was made clear about a day before Randall had intended. This clearly annoyed users of this page as can be seen in the [[Talk:Countdown_in_header_text|talk page for the countdown]].

Until then, however, there were numerous [[Countdown_in_header_text#Theories|theories]] about the [[Countdown_in_header_text#Countdown|countdown]] and what the [[Countdown_in_header_text#The_picture|image would reveal]], as the image gradually changed throughout the eventual [[Countdown_in_header_text/images|136 frames]].

In the title text Randall feels that he must clarify the release day (as in [[2562: Formatting Meeting]]), since he has often joked about the way different countries (and people) write dates - he did not use the one version he himself had promoted in earlier comics. He does however give two different versions of the release date: the first is "9/13" in the first panel, which is at least (usually - see below) only readable one way; harder to misinterpret is the more expansive "Sep 13, 2022" in the final panel. What he should have written was, "the book is released on 2022-09-13," using the international standard as defined in the {{W|ISO 8601}} standard and shown in [[1179: ISO 8601]].

The clarification reads: By 9/13, I mean September 13th, not the 9th day of Jancember, the cursed 13th month that exists between December and January in the transdimensional temporal plane.

Since there are only 12 months in the year 2022,{{citation needed}} then 9/13 actually cannot be mistaken, while 9/12 might be. So there was really no need for this clarification, especially with the last text in the last panel. So this is of course just a title text joke, where he can manage to make a [[:Category:Portmanteau|portmanteau]] of January and December, Jancember, and then then call this a cursed month, since it would be the 13th month, if it came before New Year. This comic came out at the end of January, so it could have been at the end of Jancember instead. The number thirteen is seen by many as an unlucky number, so a thirteenth month would be considered cursed by some, or at least unlucky.

At the release of this comic not only the header changed. Also the [[Design_of_xkcd.com#xkcd_links|xkcd links]] in the top left section of xkcd was changed to promote the book. And he made his first [[Blag]] post in more than two years with the [https://blog.xkcd.com/2022/01/31/what-if-2/ What If 2] post.

Also the [https://what-if.xkcd.com/ what if?] header was changed to accommodate promotion of the new book, not so strange as it was based on that blog. A picture is displayed at the top with the book at both ends, and this text in between, with the first line taking up the top, and the two other lines below, the first in a frame:
:what if? 2
:Preorder now
:On sale 9/13
The entire picture links to the what if? 2 page.

==Transcript==
:[Randall, drawn as Cueball, is throwing his arms out as he stands next to a big red book with white drawings on the cover. The cover shows a large passenger plane that has just taken off, as can be seen since the landing gear still has the wheels extended (only one wheel is visible at the middle part and then the one in the front). A Tyrannosaurus Rex has jumped on to the plane and it is biting down on the ceiling of the plane a bit in front of the wings, as if on the back of a prey. The dinosaur has already broken through the ceiling. Below is a jagged landscape with small mountain like peaks in the background. Megan and Cueball are standing on the top of the second of two raised plateaus, looking up at the plane and dinosaur. There is unreadable white text above the plane, then a title beneath the plane, and the authors name below the landscape, and more unreadable text beneath that, all in white. Below the book, there is a small arrow pointing to the right bottom of the book, with a label beneath.]
:Randall: '''Announcement:''' I’m publishing a ''what if?'' sequel!
:Book cover: what if? 2
:Book cover: Randall Munroe
:In stores 9/13, available for preorder now: xkcd.com/whatif2

:[Randall is shown holding up his smart phone in one hand. The screen lights up as indicated with small lines at the top. These point up to at least six SMS texts, each with two lines of text. They are shown in speech bobbles with a small arrow in the bobbles lower left corner. All six are covered partly by either the other five, or by Randall’s head, and none of them can be read in any meaningful way; only parts of sentences or words are clearly visible. The bobbles and the text in them are all drawn in gray. Randall is narrating (not speaking) in this panel, both above the SMS texts, and below.]
:Randall narrating: Ever since I wrote '''''what if?''''', I’ve been flooded with questions.
:Randall narrating: And not just from readers- My friends and family stated texting them to me, too.
:Text 1: Hey could s.. ele
:Text 2: Hypothe…
:Text 3: If you s… Jupiter…
:Text 4: Could my c… or…
:Text 5: Do you… my car…
:Text 6: If I trie… the sun, would I…
:Randall narrating: Honestly, I love it.

:[Randall is again standing next to his red book talking. There is also a second version of the book lying to the right of the closed book, and this has been opened up to reveal two pages. The text is unreadable and the images are very hard to see, but it seems that two people are standing next to each other on the right page. The image at the top of the left page has been enlarged and shown to the right of the open book. It is an image of the Earth that is being peeled by a potato peeler, which takes off a large peel from the north part of Scandinavia and then goes via Russia into Asia. The title and author name can still just be read on the book,but maybe only because they are already known...]
:Randall: The questions are so good. People have asked about touching exotic materials, traveling across space and time, eating things they shouldn’t, and smashing large objects into the Earth. There are questions about lasers, explosions, swingsets, candy, and soup. Several planets are destroyed-one of them by the soup.
:Book cover: what if? 2
:Book cover: Randall Munroe

:[Zoom in on the top part of Randall speaking on.]
:Randall: Like the first book, '''''what if? 2''''' also features collections of short answers, new lists of weird and worrying questions, and some of my favorite answers from the What if site.

:[Only the closed red book are shown in this panel, in an even larger version than in any of the previous panels. But it is still only the title and the author name that can be read, but in this version these can also be read on the spine of the book. Randall is narrating again, and there are text both above and below the book.]
:Randall narrating: If you want to get it when it’s released, you can preorder a copy at xkcd.com/whatif2
:Book spine: what if? 2 Randall Munroe
:Book cover: what if? 2
:Book cover: Randall Munroe
:Randall narrating: Available Sep 13, 2022

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Randall Munroe]]
[[Category:What If?]]
[[Category:Book promotion]]
[[Category:Portmanteau]] 
[[Category:Calendar]] 
[[Category:Dinosaurs]]

2575: What If? 2

2022-02-01T06:46:54Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ 1179 is more on-point on *the* correct date format

{{comic
| number = 2575
| date = January 31, 2022
| title = What If? 2
| image = what_if_2.png
| titletext = CLARIFICATION: By 9/13, I mean September 13th, not the 9th day of Jancember, the cursed 13th month that exists between December and January in the transdimensional temporal plane.
}}

*This comic came out just a few minutes after the [[Countdown in header text]] finished. The countdown was to the revelation in this comic!
==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a RESIDENT OF JANCEMBER - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic is [[Randall]]'s way of announcing and [[:Category:Book promotion|promoting]] his new book, ''what If? 2'', based on his [[what if?]] blog and following his first what if book.

The entire comic is a link to a [https://xkcd.com/what-if-2/ what if? 2: the book] page on {{xkcd}}. And the just added [[xkcd_Header_text#2022-01-31_-_What_if.3F_2|xkcd Header text]] also links to this.

Apart from promoting the book, the comic also explains why he ended up writing a sequel. After the first book came out Randall was flooded with ''what if?'' questions. Presumable mainly from his readers via e-mail, but his friends and families also started texting him with these questions. Some of these text are displayed in the comic, but only partially, so none of the six question text can be read. But where one might think that this would become tiresome, Randall instead tells the readers the opposite: "Honestly, I love it."

He then continues to praise the quality of the questions, mentioning no less than nine examples of what the questions were about. And in the process ensures the reader that planets, including the Earth, will be destroyed multiple times in his new book. At the end he lets the readers know that some of the features of the first book, with short answer sections and disturbing questions (likely not answered), are also included in this book.

He also states that a few of his favorites from the what if? site have been included. So it is not all new material. From the book stores it seems like he for instance includes his very last online what if? {{what if|156|Earth-Moon Fire Pole}}, which was released on 2018-05-21, almost four years before this comic was released. And by the time the book is released, it will be almost four years and four months since the last article on what if?

The final part of the comic is a picture of the book that both makes it clear when the book is released and how to preorder it already now. This it on the link to the xkcd page, that the entire comic and header text links to.

Randall ensured the maximum possible attention to his announcement by placing a [[Countdown in header text|countdown]] in the [[xkcd_Header_text#2022-01-10_-_Standard_text_with_countdown|header]] about three weeks prior to the announcement. This has caused a lot of speculation as to what would be revealed on the day of this comic's release 2022-01-31. The timer was inside a panel at the top right of the xkcd Header text together with the standard header text: ''xkcd updates every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday''. Inside the panel a picture began emerging after the first day, but the picture only changed approximately once every four hours. After a few weeks was it certain that it was a plane that was being revealed. And on the second to last day, around day twenty, it was clear that it featured a ''T. rex''-like dinosaur ''en silhouette'' standing on top of the aircraft, apparently trying to eat its way into the fuselage, and it might have been possible to guess the relation to the "what if?" canon. On the day before the announcement on xkcd, however, [[Countdown_in_header_text#Blow_up_by_Amazon|Amazon made visible a preorder page for the book]], so the answer was made clear about a day before Randall had intended. This clearly annoyed users of this page as can be seen in the [[Talk:Countdown_in_header_text|talk page for the countdown]].

Until then, however, there were numerous [[Countdown_in_header_text#Theories|theories]] about the [[Countdown_in_header_text#Countdown|countdown]] and what the [[Countdown_in_header_text#The_picture|image would reveal]], as the image gradually changed throughout the eventual [[Countdown_in_header_text/images|136 frames]].

In the title text Randall feels that he must clarify the release day (as in [[2562: Formatting Meeting]]), since he has often joked about the way different countries (and people) write dates - he did not use the one version he himself had promoted in earlier comics. He does however give two different versions of the release date: the first is "9/13" in the first panel, which is at least (usually - see below) only readable one way; harder to misinterpret is the more expansive "Sep 13, 2022" in the final panel. What he should have written was, "the book is released on 2022-09-13," using the international standard as defined in the {{W|ISO 8601}} standard and used in [[1179: ISO 8601]].

The clarification reads: By 9/13, I mean September 13th, not the 9th day of Jancember, the cursed 13th month that exists between December and January in the transdimensional temporal plane.

Since there are only 12 months in the year 2022,{{citation needed}} then 9/13 actually cannot be mistaken, while 9/12 might be. So there was really no need for this clarification, especially with the last text in the last panel. So this is of course just a title text joke, where he can manage to make a [[:Category:Portmanteau|portmanteau]] of January and December, Jancember, and then then call this a cursed month, since it would be the 13th month, if it came before New Year. This comic came out at the end of January, so it could have been at the end of Jancember instead. The number thirteen is seen by many as an unlucky number, so a thirteenth month would be considered cursed by some, or at least unlucky.

At the release of this comic not only the header changed. Also the [[Design_of_xkcd.com#xkcd_links|xkcd links]] in the top left section of xkcd was changed to promote the book. And he made his first [[Blag]] post in more than two years with the [https://blog.xkcd.com/2022/01/31/what-if-2/ What If 2] post.

Also the [https://what-if.xkcd.com/ what if?] header was changed to accommodate promotion of the new book, not so strange as it was based on that blog. A picture is displayed at the top with the book at both ends, and this text in between, with the first line taking up the top, and the two other lines below, the first in a frame:
:what if? 2
:Preorder now
:On sale 9/13
The entire picture links to the what if? 2 page.

==Transcript==
:[Randall, drawn as Cueball, is throwing his arms out as he stands next to a big red book with white drawings on the cover. The cover shows a large passenger plane that has just taken off, as can be seen since the landing gear still has the wheels extended (only one wheel is visible at the middle part and then the one in the front). A Tyrannosaurus Rex has jumped on to the plane and it is biting down on the ceiling of the plane a bit in front of the wings, as if on the back of a prey. The dinosaur has already broken through the ceiling. Below is a jagged landscape with small mountain like peaks in the background. Megan and Cueball are standing on the top of the second of two raised plateaus, looking up at the plane and dinosaur. There is unreadable white text above the plane, then a title beneath the plane, and the authors name below the landscape, and more unreadable text beneath that, all in white. Below the book, there is a small arrow pointing to the right bottom of the book, with a label beneath.]
:Randall: '''Announcement:''' I’m publishing a ''what if?'' sequel!
:Book cover: what if? 2
:Book cover: Randall Munroe
:In stores 9/13, available for preorder now: xkcd.com/whatif2

:[Randall is shown holding up his smart phone in one hand. The screen lights up as indicated with small lines at the top. These point up to at least six SMS texts, each with two lines of text. They are shown in speech bobbles with a small arrow in the bobbles lower left corner. All six are covered partly by either the other five, or by Randall’s head, and none of them can be read in any meaningful way; only parts of sentences or words are clearly visible. The bobbles and the text in them are all drawn in gray. Randall is narrating (not speaking) in this panel, both above the SMS texts, and below.]
:Randall narrating: Ever since I wrote '''''what if?''''', I’ve been flooded with questions.
:Randall narrating: And not just from readers- My friends and family stated texting them to me, too.
:Text 1: Hey could s.. ele
:Text 2: Hypothe…
:Text 3: If you s… Jupiter…
:Text 4: Could my c… or…
:Text 5: Do you… my car…
:Text 6: If I trie… the sun, would I…
:Randall narrating: Honestly, I love it.

:[Randall is again standing next to his red book talking. There is also a second version of the book lying to the right of the closed book, and this has been opened up to reveal two pages. The text is unreadable and the images are very hard to see, but it seems that two people are standing next to each other on the right page. The image at the top of the left page has been enlarged and shown to the right of the open book. It is an image of the Earth that is being peeled by a potato peeler, which takes off a large peel from the north part of Scandinavia and then goes via Russia into Asia. The title and author name can still just be read on the book,but maybe only because they are already known...]
:Randall: The questions are so good. People have asked about touching exotic materials, traveling across space and time, eating things they shouldn’t, and smashing large objects into the Earth. There are questions about lasers, explosions, swingsets, candy, and soup. Several planets are destroyed-one of them by the soup.
:Book cover: what if? 2
:Book cover: Randall Munroe

:[Zoom in on the top part of Randall speaking on.]
:Randall: Like the first book, '''''what if? 2''''' also features collections of short answers, new lists of weird and worrying questions, and some of my favorite answers from the What if site.

:[Only the closed red book are shown in this panel, in an even larger version than in any of the previous panels. But it is still only the title and the author name that can be read, but in this version these can also be read on the spine of the book. Randall is narrating again, and there are text both above and below the book.]
:Randall narrating: If you want to get it when it’s released, you can preorder a copy at xkcd.com/whatif2
:Book spine: what if? 2 Randall Munroe
:Book cover: what if? 2
:Book cover: Randall Munroe
:Randall narrating: Available Sep 13, 2022

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Randall Munroe]]
[[Category:What If?]]
[[Category:Book promotion]]
[[Category:Portmanteau]] 
[[Category:Calendar]] 
[[Category:Dinosaurs]]

Talk:2543: Never Told Anyone

2021-11-27T03:41:44Z

Troy0: Corrected an "unsigned" template

Possible alternative explanation: It's a quick one-time two-factor authentication code that is generated with an app like google auth, or sent by sms, and is only valid for a minute or too. A password would still be needed,and therefore it would be almost completely useless.
[[User:Billsmithsmithbill22|Billsmithsmithbill22]] ([[User talk:Billsmithsmithbill22|talk]]) 02:16, 18 November 2021 (UTC) Bill Smith
:That's how I interpreted it, too. Password recovery links are usually very long strings, not just 6 digits. The joke is that the email or SMS with the 2FA code usually warns not to disclose the code, even though it can't be reused. [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 02:43, 18 November 2021 (UTC)
:Some Services offer a form of 2FA where they give you a list of 10 one time passwords / back-up codes that are valid indefinitely and are supposed to be printed out, in case access to the phone is lost. The generally romantic atmosphere of the comic makes me feel the number is more like that, especially since she also offers him her password in the alt-text. [[User:Ruffy314|Ruffy314]] ([[User talk:Ruffy314|talk]]) 10:39, 18 November 2021 (UTC)

263827 is prime, is that worthy of a mention? {{unsigned ip|108.162.249.63|21:13, 17 November 2021 (UTC)}}
:If you think it is a factor! (...of a semiprime, maybe.) [[Special:Contributions/172.70.90.141|172.70.90.141]] 03:48, 18 November 2021 (UTC)

Could "I never told anyone *this* before" be a wordplay on the fact that it is a one-time code, which means if she told anyone else before it would have been a different one?
[[Special:Contributions/172.68.110.133|172.68.110.133]] 03:55, 18 November 2021 (UTC)

The number here is 263827. In the original Star Wars movie, the trash compactor that the main characters get stuck in is numbered 3263827. Any chance that this is an incredibly obscure Star Wars reference? (I figure since one-time codes are usually six digits, using that full seven-digit number would be a bit of a distraction.) [[User:Ghostelephant|Ghostelephant]] ([[User talk:Ghostelephant|talk]]) 05:01, 18 November 2021 (UTC)
No way that's a coincidence! That is simply too unlikely to be an accident.[[Special:Contributions/172.70.178.123|172.70.178.123]] 08:14, 18 November 2021 (UTC)
:How on earth did you figure this out? Do you just happen to know the number of that trash compactor? And if so, how? And why? For me this comment raises way more questions than the comic did. [[User:Bischoff|Bischoff]] ([[User talk:Bischoff|talk]]) 10:58, 18 November 2021 (UTC)
::Though I'm not as obsessive with Star Wars to know this particular number, I know that the THX 1138 4EB meme pops up again throughout Lucas's later oevre, and (like just the other day) gets co-opted referentially by the Randalls of this world. Forty-odd years of obsession by generations of fans would not leave a single remastered pixel/unremastered grain of footage unanalysed of every last detail. I've personally used "6EQUJ5" as an obscure reference, at times, and had others have known/worked out what I was echoing (even before Google) and that's from a far more transient source... [[Special:Contributions/172.70.90.211|172.70.90.211]] 11:35, 18 November 2021 (UTC)
::: 6EQUJ5 is no longer considered a one time code. In the 70s, it was inexplicable, but since then it has been found again. In fact, it is not considered to have a unique source. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.82.111|172.70.82.111]] 20:20, 18 November 2021 (UTC)
::::Going back to how I noticed -- I double-checked it before commenting to make sure, but yeah I do happen to know that particular number haha. It came up at some point on a Star Wars podcast, where a guest talked about making a good friend in elementary school after realizing they had both memorized that number. I think they also said that particular number was chosen because it was Mark Hamill's phone number at the time. I guess at that point I was like "huh yeah I should probably know this number" (though I am not really sure why). A benefit, of course, is that every time I listen to the Star Wars Radio Drama I notice that they leave out a digit and it bothers me.... [[User:Ghostelephant|Ghostelephant]] ([[User talk:Ghostelephant|talk]]) 01:30, 19 November 2021 (UTC)

Aren't one time codes also used for Bluetooth pairing? If so, couldn't this be considered a marriage proposal? --[[User:Divad27182|Divad27182]] ([[User talk:Divad27182|talk]]) 13:49, 18 November 2021 (UTC)
:If that's what you consider a proposal, I fear you will have plenty trouble finding a spouse----{{unsigned ip|162.158.203.36|13:45, 18 November 2021}}
:: "Repeat these digits back to me (over an alternate communications channel) to pair with me." A bit geeky perhaps (cf. [https://xkcd.com/ XKCD]), but could be either a proposition or proposal. --[[User:Divad27182|Divad27182]] ([[User talk:Divad27182|talk]]) 14:39, 19 November 2021 (UTC)
:I was thinking of something along those lines. They don't say what service the code is for, so it gave me a kind of weird train of thought like "this is a code that will give you access to ''me'', but only if you use it right away". Was wondering if anyone else was thinking along those lines [[User:Angel|Angel]] ([[User talk:Angel|talk]]) 01:26, 19 November 2021 (UTC)

Can some tell me why this comic is *still* in List of all comics even though it's number 2543, and so should be in the next page (2501-3000) --[[User:GcGYSF(asterisk)P(vertical line)e|GcGYSF(asterisk)P(vertical line)e]] ([[User talk:GcGYSF(asterisk)P(vertical line)e|talk]]) 19:42, 18 November 2021 (UTC)

Joke's on you: I've already used that code before. --[[Special:Contributions/172.70.85.227|172.70.85.227]] 10:48, 19 November 2021 (UTC)

Talk:2533: Slope Hypothesis Testing

2021-10-26T03:06:53Z

Troy0:

I love it. [[User:Fwacer|Fwacer]] ([[User talk:Fwacer|talk]]) 02:52, 26 October 2021 (UTC)

I imagine that the problem here is that the errors are not independent. I can't find anything else wrong with this, but I feel like there's something obvious I'm not seeing. They might revoke my statistics degree if I miss something big here, hehe.--[[User:Troy0|Troy0]] ([[User talk:Troy0|talk]]) 03:06, 26 October 2021 (UTC)

2480: No, The Other One

2021-06-23T21:22:34Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Table of places

{{comic
| number = 2480
| date = June 23, 2021
| title = No, The Other One
| image = no_the_other_one.png
| titletext = Key West, Virginia is not to be confused with Key, West Virginia.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a SIMILIARLY NAMED PLACE. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This is a map of the United States, showing cities or towns with the same name as other "more populous" cities. For example, the map has a dot for a place called Los Angeles in Texas, not to be confused with Los Angeles, California.

The name of this comic would be if someone claims they are from "Los Angeles" and would have to say "no, the other one" since the listener would assume they are from Los Angeles, California.

;Alabama
{{w|Detroit,_Alabama|Detroit}} : {{w|Detroit|Detroit, MI}} is best known as the center of the U.S. automobile industry.

{{w|Houston,_Alabama|Houston}} : {{w|Houston|Houston, TX}} is the most populous city in Texas and the fourth-most populous in the United States.

{{w|Jackson,_Alabama|Jackson}} : {{w|Jackson,_Mississippi|Jackson, MS}} is the capital of Mississippi, but there are {{w|Jackson|many other}} states with Jacksons. This one is likely particularly notable due to its proximity to Jackson, MS.

;Alaska
{{w|Houston,_Alaska|Houston}} : {{w|Houston|Houston, TX}} is the most populous city in Texas and the fourth-most populous in the United States.

;Arizona
{{w|Peoria,_Arizona|Peoria}} : {{w|Page|Peoria, IL}} is known for being considered an "Average American Town", in the phrase {{w|Will_it_play_in_Peoria%3F|"Will it play in Peoria?"}} It is actually smaller than Peoria, AZ.

{{w|Miami,_Arizona|Miami}} : {{w|Miami|Miami, FL}} is the seventh largest city in the United States and a major tourism hub.

;Arkansas
;California
;Colorado
;Connecticut
;Delaware
;Florida
;Georgia
;Hawaii
;Idaho
;Illinois
;Indiana
;Iowa
;Kansas
;Kentucky
;Louisiana
;Maine
;Maryland
;Massachusetts
;Michigan
;Minnesota
;Mississippi
;Missouri
;Montana
;Nebraska
;Nevada
;New Hampshire
;New Jersey
;New Mexico
;New York
;North Carolina
;North Dakota
;Ohio
;Oklahoma
;Oregon
;Pennsylvania
;Rhode Island
;South Carolina
;South Dakota
;Tennessee
;Texas
;Utah
;Vermont
;Virginia
;Washington
;West Virginia
;Wisconsin
;Wyoming

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Place name
! State of copycat
! State of well-known place
! Notes
|-
| Albany
| GA
|
|
|-
| Albany
| MN
|
|
|-
| Albany
| WY
|
|
|-
| Alexandria
| LA
|
|
|-
| Anchorage
| KY
|
|
|-
| Atlanta
| DE
|
|
|-
| Atlanta
| MI
|
|
|-
| Atlanta
| MT
|
|
|-
| Atlanta
| NE/CO?
|
|
|-
| Atlanta
| TX
|
|
|-
| Atlanta
| WI
|
|
|-
| Atlantic City
| WY
|
|
|-
| Austin
| MN
|
|
|-
| Baton Rouge
| SC
|
|
|-
| Beaumont
| CA
|
|
|-
| Beverly Hills
| IL
|
|
|-
| Beverly Hills
| TX
|
|
|-
| Bloomington
| MN
|
|
|-
| Boston
| MO
|
|
|-
| Bowling Green
| FL
|
|
|-
| Bowling Green
| OH
|
|
|-
| Bridgeport
| WV
|
|
|-
| Buffalo
| TX
|
|
|-
| Buffalo
| WY
|
|
|-
| Cambridge
| OH
|
|
|-
| Cedar Rapids
| NE
|
|
|-
| Charleston
| NY?
|
|
|-
| Cleveland
| UT
|
|
|-
| Columbus
| GA
|
|
|-
| Dallas
| GA
|
|
|-
| Dallas
| NC
|
|
|-
| Dallas
| OR
|
|
|-
| Dallas
| SD
|
|
|-
| Dayton
| NV
|
|
|-
| Des Moines
| NM
|
|
|-
| Des Moines
| WA
|
|
|-
| Detroit
| AL
|
|
|-
| Detroit
| KS
|
|
|-
| Disney
| OK
|
|
|-
| Fayetteville
| TN
|
|
|-
| Gettysburg
| OH
|
|
|-
| Gettysburg
| SD
|
|
|-
| Grand Rapids
| MN
|
|
|-
| Houston
| AK
|
|
|-
| Houston
| AL
|
|
|-
| Houston
| FL
|
|
|-
| Houston
| IN
|
|
|-
| Houston
| MO
|
|
|-
| Houston
| OH
|
|
|-
| Indianapolis
| IA
|
|
|-
| Jackson
| AL
|
|
|-
| Jamestown
| CA
|
|
|-
| Jamestown
| ND
|
|
|-
| Jersey Shore
| PA
|
|
|-
| Key West
| VA
|
|
|-
| Knoxville
| IA
|
|
|-
| Las Vegas
| NM
|
|
|-
| Lincoln
| CA
|
|
|-
| Lincoln
| IL
|
|
|-
| Lincoln
| MT
|
|
|-
| Lincoln
| RI
|
|
|-
| Lisbon
| ME
|
|
|-
| Lisbon
| NH
|
|
|-
| Long Beach
| NJ
|
|
|-
| Los Angeles
| TX
|
|
|-
| Louisville
| CO
|
|
|-
| Manhattan
| KS
|
|
|-
| Manhattan
| MT
|
|
|-
| Memphis
| NE
|
|
|-
| Mesa
| CA
|
|
|-
| Mesa
| CO
|
|
|-
| Miami
| AZ
|
|
|-
| Miami
| TX
|
|
|-
| Mountain View
| HI
|
|
|-
| Nashville
| AR
|
|
|-
| New England
| ND
|
|
|-
| New Haven
| KY
|
|
|-
| New York
| TX
|
|
|-
| Newark
| DE?
|
|
|-
| North Pole
| NY
|
|
|-
| Oakland
| OR
|
|
|-
| Orlando
| OK
|
|
|-
| Ottawa
| KS
|
|
|-
| Pasadena
| MD
|
|
|-
| Pasadena
| TX
|
|
|-
| Peoria
| AZ
|
|
|-
| Philadelphia
| MS
|
|
|-
| Philadelphia
| NY
|
|
|-
| Phoenix
| MD?
|
|
|-
| Phoenix
| OR
|
|
|-
| Piano
| IL
|
|
|-
| Plymouth
| CA
|
|
|-
| Plymouth
| IN
|
|
|-
| Portland
| ME
|
|
|-
| Princeton
| ID
|
|
|-
| Princeton
| MA
|
|
|-
| Richmond
| VT
|
|
|-
| Roswell
| GA
|
|
|-
| Saint Louis
| MI
|
|
|-
| Saint Louis
| OK
|
|
|-
| Salem
| CT
|
|
|-
| San Diego
| TX
|
|
|-
| Santa Fe
| TX
|
|
|-
| Savannah
| MO
|
|
|-
| South Bend
| TX
|
|
|-
| Texas
| NY
| Mexico
|
|-
| Vienna
| ME
|
|
|-
| Washington
| NC
|
|
|-
| White House
| TN
|
|
|}{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Place name
! State of copycat
! State of well-known place
! Notes
|-
| Albany
| GA
|
|
|-
| Albany
| MN
|
|
|-
| Albany
| WY
|
|
|-
| Alexandria
| LA
|
|
|-
| Anchorage
| KY
|
|
|-
| Atlanta
| DE
|
|
|-
| Atlanta
| MI
|
|
|-
| Atlanta
| MT
|
|
|-
| Atlanta
| NE/CO?
|
|
|-
| Atlanta
| TX
|
|
|-
| Atlanta
| WI
|
|
|-
| Atlantic City
| WY
|
|
|-
| Austin
| MN
|
|
|-
| Baton Rouge
| SC
|
|
|-
| Beaumont
| CA
|
|
|-
| Beverly Hills
| IL
|
|
|-
| Beverly Hills
| TX
|
|
|-
| Bloomington
| MN
|
|
|-
| Boston
| MO
|
|
|-
| Bowling Green
| FL
|
|
|-
| Bowling Green
| OH
|
|
|-
| Bridgeport
| WV
|
|
|-
| Buffalo
| TX
|
|
|-
| Buffalo
| WY
|
|
|-
| Cambridge
| OH
|
|
|-
| Cedar Rapids
| NE
|
|
|-
| Charleston
| NY?
|
|
|-
| Cleveland
| UT
|
|
|-
| Columbus
| GA
|
|
|-
| Dallas
| GA
|
|
|-
| Dallas
| NC
|
|
|-
| Dallas
| OR
|
|
|-
| Dallas
| SD
|
|
|-
| Dayton
| NV
|
|
|-
| Des Moines
| NM
|
|
|-
| Des Moines
| WA
|
|
|-
| Detroit
| AL
|
|
|-
| Detroit
| KS
|
|
|-
| Disney
| OK
|
|
|-
| Fayetteville
| TN
|
|
|-
| Gettysburg
| OH
|
|
|-
| Gettysburg
| SD
|
|
|-
| Grand Rapids
| MN
|
|
|-
| Houston
| AK
|
|
|-
| Houston
| AL
|
|
|-
| Houston
| FL
|
|
|-
| Houston
| IN
|
|
|-
| Houston
| MO
|
|
|-
| Houston
| OH
|
|
|-
| Indianapolis
| IA
|
|
|-
| Jackson
| AL
|
|
|-
| Jamestown
| CA
|
|
|-
| Jamestown
| ND
|
|
|-
| Jersey Shore
| PA
|
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|-
| Key West
| VA
|
|
|-
| Knoxville
| IA
|
|
|-
| Las Vegas
| NM
|
|
|-
| Lincoln
| CA
|
|
|-
| Lincoln
| IL
|
|
|-
| Lincoln
| MT
|
|
|-
| Lincoln
| RI
|
|
|-
| Lisbon
| ME
|
|
|-
| Lisbon
| NH
|
|
|-
| Long Beach
| NJ
|
|
|-
| Los Angeles
| TX
|
|
|-
| Louisville
| CO
|
|
|-
| Manhattan
| KS
|
|
|-
| Manhattan
| MT
|
|
|-
| Memphis
| NE
|
|
|-
| Mesa
| CA
|
|
|-
| Mesa
| CO
|
|
|-
| Miami
| AZ
|
|
|-
| Miami
| TX
|
|
|-
| Mountain View
| HI
|
|
|-
| Nashville
| AR
|
|
|-
| New England
| ND
|
|
|-
| New Haven
| KY
|
|
|-
| New York
| TX
|
|
|-
| Newark
| DE?
|
|
|-
| North Pole
| NY
|
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|-
| Oakland
| OR
|
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|-
| Orlando
| OK
|
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|-
| Ottawa
| KS
|
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|-
| Pasadena
| MD
|
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|-
| Pasadena
| TX
|
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|-
| Peoria
| AZ
|
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|-
| Philadelphia
| MS
|
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|-
| Philadelphia
| NY
|
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|-
| Phoenix
| MD?
|
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|-
| Phoenix
| OR
|
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|-
| Piano
| IL
|
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|-
| Plymouth
| CA
|
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|-
| Plymouth
| IN
|
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|-
| Portland
| ME
|
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|-
| Princeton
| ID
|
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|-
| Princeton
| MA
|
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|-
| Richmond
| VT
|
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|-
| Roswell
| GA
|
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|-
| Saint Louis
| MI
|
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|-
| Saint Louis
| OK
|
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|-
| Salem
| CT
|
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|-
| San Diego
| TX
|
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|-
| Santa Fe
| TX
|
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|-
| Savannah
| MO
|
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|-
| South Bend
| TX
|
|
|-
| Texas
| NY
| Mexico
|
|-
| Vienna
| ME
|
|
|-
| Washington
| NC
|
|
|-
| White House
| TN
|
|
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:US maps]]

2460: Vaccinated

2021-05-07T23:10:27Z

Troy0: Add some categories

{{comic
| number = 2460
| date = May 7, 2021
| title = Vaccinated
| image = vaccinated.png
| titletext = I built a model that combines local case rates and vaccination stats to estimate when it's reasonable to attend various types of party, but I forgot to include anything about where to find them.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a VACCINATION STATS MODEL. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
[Cueball stands next to Megan holding a phone]
:Cueball: It's official: We're fully vaccinated.
:Megan: It doesn't feel real.

[Cueball and Megan continue standing, Cueball without his phone]
:Cueball: I can't wait to hang out with friends again.
:Megan: ''Seriously.''

[Neither speaks in the next frame, looking outwards]

[They look back at each other and continue the conversation]
:Cueball: So, uh...how do we...
:Megan: I was hoping '''you''' knew.
:Cueball: I'm realizing now, I was hazy on this '''before''' the pandemic.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:COVID-19]]
[[Category:COVID-19 vaccine]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]

1119: Undoing

2021-04-02T01:03:32Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1119
| date = October 10, 2012
| title = Undoing
| image = undoing.png
| titletext = I've been sneaking out at night and installing lamps on the underside of every photovoltaic panel I can find. Sure, there are upwards of 80% losses, but I prefer to think of them as nearly 20% gains.
}}

==Explanation==
The comic (another in the ''[[My Hobby]]'' series) is a play on how energy from natural resources (wind, sun, water) gets turned into electricity. {{w|Wind turbine|Wind turbines}} convert the windpower into rotational energy, which can then be used to produce electricity. The one seen in the image is the most commonly known wind turbine, which sees use on wind farms. Wind turbines provide a renewable resource for homes and cities and a common method for sustainable energy. Turbines have been referenced before in xkcd, in [[556: Alternative Energy Revolution]].

In this comic, [[Cueball]] has rigged it so that the wind turbine powers a {{w|mechanical fan|fan}}. He cut the power cable attaching the turbine to the {{w|Electrical grid|power grid}} and spliced it with the power cord of a giant fan. The nailed-together 2x4s that form the "tower" for the fan further indicate the "[https://public.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/jerry.html jury-rigged]" nature of Cueball's work. The electricity generated from the windpower is then used to power the fan, which in turn produces wind. This is in reference to the complementary nature of wind turbines and fans, which was also covered in [[1378: Turbine]].

The undoing part refers how Cueball is using this fan to restore the wind that was used to turn the wind turbine back to the original wind flow.

Wind turbines have a {{w|Wind turbine#Efficiency|theoretical limit of 59%}} of the portion of wind captured. You can see the wind not captured detailed in the image as dotted, turbulent curly lines; turbulent flow. Cueball has placed the giant fan in the direction of the wind so that the wind it produced combines with the windpower not captured by the wind turbine. This is indicated by the lines smoothing, like they were at the start. Thus, not only is the electrical benefit undone, but also the change in natural wind currents.

The title text explains that he performs the same undoing process with solar cells, where light energy is converting into electricity using {{w|photovoltaic cells}}, which is then used to power lightbulbs for producing light on the area below them that the sun would normally illuminate. {{W|Solar panels}} only convert 20-25% of the energy captured from the sun into electricity. However, Cueball points out that he sees this as a 20% gain rather than an 80% loss. Since it is Cueball's hobby to literally waste time and energy, this makes perfect sense.

Incandescent light bulbs only convert at most 5% of the electricity provided into light, the rest is lost as heat energy. Thus less than 1% of the energy absorbed from the original sunlight will be released as light from the bulb. LED bulbs can do quite a bit better, approaching 90% efficiency, releasing around 17% of the original sunlight, though in different frequencies.

In the case of the wind turbine and fan, the wind will unfortunately be moving at a much slower velocity than at the start as energy was lost in converting windpower to rotation energy, then to electricity, then back to rotational energy, then back to windpower. However, in the solar panel and lamp case, the light will be moving at the same speed as it entered the panel thanks to the constant nature of the speed of light.

==Transcript==
:[Caption above the panel:]
:My Hobby:

:[A large wind turbine is spinning but the electric cord has been severed and rewired to a large fan.]

:[Caption below the panel:]
:Undoing

==Trivia==

A similar understanding of the difference between a wind turbine and a fan is presented by [[Megan]] in the later comic: [[1378: Turbine]].

This comic may be a continuation of [[Randall|Randall's]] mistrust of modern electric wind turbines (see [[556: Alternative Energy Revolution]]).

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:My Hobby]]
[[Category:Weather]]
[[Category:Wind turbine]]

887: Future Timeline

2021-03-30T01:48:36Z

Troy0: Incomplete tag removed. All entries have been given details. We're not leaving this tag up for eight more decades.

{{comic
| number = 887
| date = April 18, 2011
| title = Future Timeline
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]
| image = future timeline.png
| titletext = Not shown: the approximately 30,000 identical, vaguely hysterical articles titled "WHITE PEOPLE IN [THE US/BRITAIN] TO BECOME MINORITY BY [YEAR]!", which came up for basically any year I put in.
}}

==Explanation==
This comic uses the same strategy as comic [[715: Numbers]], in which [[Randall]] uses Google to search for phrases and then charts the results. This one is charted as a timeline, whereas 715 was charted as line graphs.
It is a list of things predicted or announced by anyone at any time (the ones you see on Google search using "by the year..." or similar statements).

"2101 - War Was Beginning" is a reference to the opening narration of video game ''Zero Wing''; the same narration is famous for the internet meme "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}". As there are not any other out and out references in the comic, and the rest are actually results that you can find using Randall's methods, "War Was Beginning" was probably the only thing he got when he googled 2101 as well.

Certain events in this comic, e.g. "Social Security stops running surplus", are repeated multiple times. Also, certain bizarre events, like "Apocalypse occurs", or "Flying cars reach market", happen before rather plausible things, like "HTML 5 Finished". Certain events, like "Japan is a robot-only country" or "Gillette introduces 14-blade razor" may be related to the recurring theme [[605: Extrapolating]].

The title text is a reference to a reoccurring scaremonger theory that Caucasian people will become a minority or extinct as other ethnicities outbreed them. For maximum scaremongering they will claim this could happen in the near future, complete with extrapolated graphs. In the years since this comic was published these conspiracy theories have come to be known as "the great replacement" or "white genocide". Scaremongers are banking on the idea their target audience will rarely bother to fact check,<ref>https://www.cjr.org/special_report/media-literacy-trump-fake-news.php</ref> as analysis of their extrapolations usually reveals incorrect methodology if not outright lies<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUbxVfSqtt8</ref>.

This comic has similar features to [[1413: Suddenly Popular]], [[1093: Forget]], and [[891: Movie Ages]].

==The predictions==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Year
! Prediction
! Further Details
! Outcome
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2012
| World population
| Ever since the advent of modern medicine and the more efficient agricultural processes developed since the Industrial Revolution, the human population had been growing at an unprecedented rate. This has caused some people to worry about overpopulation, which would cause a scarcity of resources and overcrowding, and propose various solutions, most of which involve some form of eugenics. 7 billion is a landmark number because it is a multiple of 1 billion.
| Close: Earth reached 7 billion in late 2011.
|-
| Flying cars
| For decades, flying cars have been a staple of futuristic sci-fi and technological predictions. So far very few of these predictions, which to tend to hover around 5–10 years from whatever the current date is, have come true.
| False; still 5-10 years away. You could argue that helicopters count as flying cars.
|-
| Canada cuts greenhouse emissions
| Currently, the Earth is experiencing an unprecedented period of warming we call global warming, caused in part by greenhouse emissions, which are gases that help trap heat in the atmosphere. Countries have repeatedly gotten together and promised to stop emitting greenhouse gases, but so far they have failed to meet their targets.
| False. Canada withdrew from Kyoto treaty in late 2011, and its emissions in 2012 were 18% ''above'' 1990 levels (though its population had grown 26% and its GDP had grown 67% in that period).
|-
| Apocalypse occurs
| The end of a cycle of the Mayan calendar on December 22, 2012 has been used in popular culture as a basis for predicting the end of the world. Amongst other things, this included the film '2012'. Some people took this rather more seriously, and actually believed that the world would end on this date.
| False.{{Citation needed}}
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2013
| National debt paid off
| For years, the subject of national debt has been a political point of contention. While both parties theoretically support reducing the debt or paying it off entirely, Democrats are more willing to spend to pull the country out of recessions in the economy and Republicans to cut taxes. The last time that spending did not exceed revenue begin under Clinton, a Democrat, and ended after George W. Bush, a Republican, said that this amounted to taxpayers being "overcharged" and taxes were lowered, followed by the Great Recession. Clinton at one point proposed [http://money.cnn.com/1999/06/28/economy/clinton/ paying off the debt by 2015].
| False.
|-
| Microchipping Americans
| Microchips are small computer chips, typically embedded in pets in case they get lost, that contain information about the pet. Some, more paranoid, people worry about the government microchipping everyone in an effort to monitor their activities.
| False, although [https://www.google.com/search?q=rfid+implants RFID implants] do exist.
|-
| Homelessness ended in MA
| In 2008, the Commission To End Homelessness in Massachusetts, under Governor Deval Patrick, proposed a plan to all but eliminate homelessness over the next five years (hence the 2013 end-date on the comic).
| False.
|-
| Health care reform law repealed
| A health care reform law, popularly known as Obamacare, was signed into law in 2010. Ever since, many Republicans have tried (in vain) to repeal it, disliking the idea that government should provide and require healthcare.
| Too early; almost repealed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2014
| US leaves Afghanistan
| After the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11, 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan, which at the time allegedly hosted the headquarters of al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization behind the attacks. The war has gone on since then, with the public growing increasingly tired of it. Public support now favors a withdrawal, but for military and logistical reasons, the government cannot simply move all the troops currently in Afghanistan home right now. For one, that would cause immediate chaos in the country. Therefore, the government instead promises to eventually withdraw all troops, planning on doing so by the end of 2014.
| False. As of October 2019, 13,000 US troops remain in Afghanistan.
|-
| GNU/Linux dominant OS
| An operating system, or OS, is the software that forms the structure in which applications on you computer function. Some typical OSs include Mac OS X, Windows 10, and Linux. The first two of those three are commercial products, sold as a copy by a company. The last is an open-source OS, one that anyone can download and modify free. Typically, open-source software is used by a small number of socially conscious people.
| False, although Linux-based Android dominated phones since 2011.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2015
| New Horizon reaches Pluto
| The New Horizon spacecraft is a U.S. space mission designed to go to Pluto and take photographs, collect samples, etc.
| True. [http://pluto.jhuapl.edu It reached Pluto on July 14, 2015].
|-
| Healthcare law causes hyperinflation
| The National Inflation Association warns that the [http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/healthcare-bill-to-cause-us-hyperinflation-by-2015-88711032.html Healthcare Bill to Cause U.S. Hyperinflation By 2015]
| False.
|-
| Millennium development goals achieved
| {{w|Millennium Development Goals}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2016
| Baby boomers begin turning 65
| {{w|Baby boomers}} are individuals conceived in the years following World War Two, roughly defined as those born from 1946-1959. This isn't so much a prediction as basic math; if you were born in 1946, you turned 65 in 2011.
| True.
|-
| Android takes 38%/45% of market share
| {{w|Android (operating system)|Android}} is a popular operating system for smartphones and tablets, created by Google. Market share is the percentage of all devices that use the product, in this case the Android operating system. These entries together are humorous because they cannot both happen at the same time.
| Too late; passed these marks in 2010. {{w|Android OS}}' market share was already 84.4% as of the third quarter of 2014, showing that both estimates were overly conservative.<ref>http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp</ref>
|-
| Windows phone overtakes iOS
| {{w|iOS}} is the operating system used by Apple iPhones. At the time of the comic, Apple's mobile OS is much more popular than Microsoft's. The article Randall found predicts that the tables will turn. However, Windows Phone was discontinued in 2017, with support for the last version (Windows Phone 10) ending on December 10, 2019.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2017
| China completes lunar mission
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
| False. The first sample-return mission was completed in November 2020.
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| The first of many predictions about the United States {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} trust fund program, all predicting its decline due to a variety of factors.
| False
|-
| US budget balanced
| The {{w|United States federal budget}} outlines how much the US government spends on what in a given fiscal year. The budget is not required to be balanced, and so often more money is spent than is earned in revenue, causing the national debt to rise.
| False. Still far negative.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The increasing popularity of internet media and mobile devices has caused a steady decline in the popularity of print media.
| False. Though newspapers are in decline, they are certainly not obsolete as of 2017.
|-
| Cosmetic surgery doubles
| {{w|Cosmetic Surgery}}
| False. According to the ASPS (American Society of Plastic Surgeons), 1.6 million cosmetic surgeries were performed in 2011, while 1.8 million were performed in 2017, an increase of only 0.2 million.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2018
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still false.
|-
| Jesus returns to Earth
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the second coming, the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible itself says that "no man can know the date". Several predicted dates have come and gone.
| False
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2019
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still false.
|-
| Every baby has genes mapped at birth
| {{w|Gene Mapping}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2020
| Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
| Scientists estimate that more than half of the {{w|fossil fuels}} in existence have already been found and that fossil fuel production will begin to decline due to the scarcity, causing prices to increase. At the same time, improvements in {{w|Solar Power|solar technology}} are causing the prices for solar energy to steadily decrease.
| True, though only in {{w|Cost of electricity by source#Recent_global_studies|certain cases}}.
|-
| Keyboards and mice become obsolete
| {{w|Computer input device}} are beginning to adopt other methods of input, such as voice commands, touch screens, and eye tracking. While the use of touch screens in particular is gaining widespread use, as of 2014 none has come close to making keyboards and mice obsolete. None of them allows text input as fast as a keyboard, and none is suitable for writing program code.
| False. While touchscreen devices ''are'' increasingly common, both laptop and desktop computers are still very much in use. Mice continue to be used alongside touchscreens and trackpads, and keyboards remain the dominant method of writing on computers.
|-
| New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
| A {{w|Tappan_Zee_Bridge#Replacement_bridge|replacement bridge}} was announced in 2008.
| Too late; completed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2021
| US debt reaches 97% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
| Too late; reached in 2011.
|-
| US unemployment falls to 2.8%
| {{w|Unemployment in the United States}}
|
|-
| Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
| A {{w|caliphate}} is a form of {{w|Islam|Islamic}} political-religious leadership, centred around a Caliph, or successor to the prophet {{w|Muhammad}}. This may be foreshadowing of the Islamic State of Iraq and greater Syria, which has as its goal the creation of a restored caliphate.
|
|-
| Lake Mead evaporates
| Formed by the {{w|Hoover Dam}} on the {{w|Colorado River}}, {{w|Lake Mead}} is the largest reservoir in the United States (measured by maximum capacity). It hasn't reached its capacity since 1983, due to drought and increased demand for water. This is linked to {{w|global warming}}.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2022
| Kilimanjaro snow-free
| At 5,895 metres, {{w|Kilimanjaro}} is the highest mountain in {{w|Africa}}, and the highest free-standing mountain in the world. Around 85% of its ice cover disappeared between 1912 and 2011, and it continues to recede.
|
|-
| HTML 5 finished
| The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) began work on {{w|HTML 5}} in 2004.
| Too late; 5.0 specification released in 2014, but incremental updates continue.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| This is the second time this prediction has appeared.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2023
| Jesus returns to Earth (again)
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the second coming, the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible itself says that "no man can know the date". Several predicted dates have come and gone.
|
|-
| US debt passes 100% of GDP
| This references the common fear that {{w|US Debt}} will exceed GDP, possibly causing [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble economic turmoil].
| Too late; reached in 2012.
|-
| All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
| Likely due to a combination of wildfire and {{w|deforestation}}
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2024
| Atlantis begins to reappear
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea.
|
|-
| Orangutans extinct in wild
| {{w|Orangutan|Orangutans}} are a species of great ape, currently classed as an {{w|endangered species}}, and found only in the {{w|Rainforest|rainforests}} of {{w|Borneo}} and {{w|Sumatra}}.
|
|-
| China lands men and women on the moon
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
|
|-
| NASA sets up permanent moon base
| There has been a lot of hype recently about finally returning to the moon, vis-a-vis Orion.
|
|-
| Female professionals pass males in pay
| There are two possible explanations for this entry: Either it's fear-mongering from misogynists or, more probably, an erroneous extrapolation from the current rate at which female incomes are catching up to male incomes.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2025
| World population reaches 8 billion
| Given current rates, it seems unlikely it will take this long to hit 8 billion, but advances in birth control options and especially their availability in developing nations may slow the current rate considerably.
|
|-
| Two billion people face water shortages
| http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/28-01-2008/103693-water_crisis-0/
|
|-
| 62 MPG cars introduced
| 62 miles per gallon, ~3.8 L/100km. 62 MPG is a very good mileage rate at today's standard, even though [http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=5231050&page=1 some cars can be driven carefully so as to attain over 100 MPG].
|
|-
| US power fades
| http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-us-power-will-fade-by-2025/
| Hard to know what the precise metric for this would be.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2026
| Atlantis emerges completely
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. It seems that it has taken 2 years for it to emerge completely.
|
|-
| Rock Bands die out
| https://bestbands.wordpress.com/2009/01/25/rock-bands-to-die-out-by-2026/
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}} [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/business/27view.html It’s 2026, and the Debt Is Due].
|
|-
| Car accidents cease
| Presumably, cars will be fully automated and able to pilot themselves at this point and will have fail-safes that prevent collisions currently attributed to user error. Car accidents will always be possible, however, due to mechanical and electrical failures.
|
|-
| West coast falls into ocean
| Most likely due to {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|a significant seismic event}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2027
| Japan introduces new fastest Maglev train
| Japan's railway systems are famous for their "bullet trains", or {{w|Shinkansen}}. The Chūō Shinkansen is planned to be opened in this year.
|
|-
| Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony is established
| http://totse.mattfast1.com/en/technology/space_astronomy_nasa/moonmars.html
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2028
| Tobacco outlawed
| Tobacco products (cigarettes and chewing tobacco) have become more and more taboo in modern culture, with most public places and private businesses forbidding their use indoors and near places children congregate.
|
|-
| 40% of coral reefs gone
| Many factors have been attributed to the decline of {{w|Coral_reef#Threats|coral reefs}}, including mining, over fishing, and rising ocean tempteratures.
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2029
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| Computers pass the Turing test
| It is no coincidence that 2029 is the timeline for Terminator Movies.
| Some computer programs already clear the Turing Test about 30% of the time.
|-
| Aging reversed
| Manhattan Beach Project to reverse aging by 2029
|
|-
| Wikipedia reaches 30 Million articles
|
| As of 00:00, 5 January 2015 (UTC), Wikipedia has over 34 million total articles, if all languages are included. The source being cited may have meant the English language Wikipedia, which has only 5.94 million articles, as of 1 October 2019.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2030
| Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
| WWF press release - [http://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/climate-change-speeds-up-amazon-s-destruction-says-wwf Climate Change Speeds Up Amazon’s Destruction] referring to a report on the [http://assets.panda.org/downloads/amazonas_eng_04_12b_web.pdf Amazon's vicious cycles] (PDF)
|
|-
| Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
| From the [http://www.cancer.org/myacs/newengland/global-cancer-burden-to-double-by-2030 Global Cancer Burden to Nearly Double by 2030] article about the article from page 37 of [http://www.cancer.org/research/cancerfactsfigures/globalcancerfactsfigures/global-facts-figures-2nd-ed Global Cancer Facts & Figures 2nd edition].
|
|-
| Arctic ice-free in summer
| http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-video-ap.html
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2031
| Computers controlled by thought
| http://www.gizmag.com/future-mobile-technology/17554/
| As of 2017, this is {{w|Brain–computer interface|already possible}}, but still not used in any mass available devices as of 2021.
|-
| Realtors replaced by technology
| http://agbeat.com/editorials/will-realtors-be-replaced-by-technology-by-the-year-2031/
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| http://crfb.org/blogs/cbo-95-percent-confident-social-security-trust-fund-runs-out-25-years
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2032
| "Big One" hits San Francisco
| http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Quake-scientists-predict-Big-One-likely-by-2032-2653745.php {{w|San Franscisco}} is located on the {{w|San Andreas Fault}}, which is predicted to produce a magnitude 7+ earthquake in the 'near future'. This event is referred to as {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|"The Big One"}}.
|
|-
| US elects first married lesbian President
| http://4chandata.org/g/In-what-major-ways-do-you-think-the-world-of-2032-will-be-different-from-that-of-today-a20155
|
|-
| Entire world converted to Christianity
| http://www.goddiscussion.com/38920/christian-domininionsts-to-take-over-the-world-by-2032/
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2033
| Kilimanjaro ice disappears
| http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/02/idUSL2210825
|
|-
| India becomes superpower
| https://www.facebook.com/pages/India-A-SuperPower-by-2033/151177191568098 ?
|
|-
| Europe reaches Mars
| [http://www.spacedaily.com/news/esa-general-03zb.html Specifically, a manned European mission]. ESA's {{w|Mars Express}} probe landed in 2003.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2034
| US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
| [http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/27/us-diabetes-usa-costs-idUSTRE5AQ0C220091127 U.S. diabetes cases to double, costs triple by 2034]
|
|-
| US builds autonomous robot army
| The concept of robots built for military service is another common element of science fiction stories. [http://www.aos-inc.com/index.php/medialias/press-releases?id=112 Unmanned Systems] article, about the [http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA522247 2009-2034 Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap] publication ([http://www.amazon.com/2009-Unmanned-Integrated-Aircraft-Technologies-ebook/dp/B0047743A0 details at Amazon])
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2035
| 80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
| From fact sheet on Obama's [http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/fact-sheet-state-union-president-obamas-plan-win-future State of the Union]
|
|-
| Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
| From an IPCC report on [https://web.archive.org/web/20100116132657/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html The Himalayan glaciers] that has been analysed in quite some depth. See for example detailed article on an [http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/02/anatomy-of-ipccs-himalayan-glacier-year-2035-mess/ anatomy of IPCC’s mistake].
|
|-
| Arctic sea lane opens
| [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/730ef8fe-27e1-11e0-8abc-00144feab49a.html#axzz3OBgEHYNY Arctic sea lane could open by 2035]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2036
| 80% of US has access to high-speed rail
| [http://www.wnyc.org/story/284946-obama-80-percent-of-americans-should-have-access-to-high-speed-rail-by-2036/ Obama: 80 Percent of Americans Should Have Access to High Speed Rail By 2036]
|
|-
| Asteroid Apophis misses/hits Earth
| http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ 99942 Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2037
| Arctic ice-free in September
| {{w|Arctic sea ice decline}}
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2038
| 32-bit timestamps roll over, causing Y2K-level chaos
| 03:14:07 UTC on 19 January 2038, the value of time_t rolls over, that is it will return to zero. time_t is a computing standard measurement of time; it is a count of the number of seconds since 00:00:00 UTC on 1 January 1970. time_t is used by most computer systems to store date and time information. It is recommended that new software should convert to a 64 bit time_t; indeed, most operating systems designed to run on 64-bit hardware already use signed 64-bit time_t integers. This would give an epoch of 15:30:08 UTC on 4 December 292,277,026,596 (292 billion years away). Of course, legacy systems may not be upgradable so action taken now should prevent this becoming a problem closer to 2038...
|
|-
| "Big One" hits California
| [http://www.presstelegram.com/technology/20080414/the-big-one-likely-to-hit-by-2038 `The big one' likely to hit by 2038]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2039
| US population hits 400 Million
| [http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2008/us400million.aspx U.S. Population Projected to Hit 400 Million in 2039]
|
|-
| Severe heat waves become commonplace
| [http://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/july/extreme-heat-study-070810.html Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds]
|
|-
| Scientology becomes majority religion in US
| [http://home.snafu.de/tilman/2039.html Essay: Scientology in the year 2039]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2040
| Arctic summers ice-free
| [http://www.livescience.com/9419-arctic-summer-ice-free-2040.html Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2040]
|
|-
| Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
| [http://www.computerworld.com/article/2528330/app-development/nanotech-could-make-humans-immortal-by-2040--futurist-says.html Nanotech could make humans immortal by 2040, futurist says]
|
|-
| 2041
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2043
| World population passes 9 Billion
| {{w|Population growth}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2044
| Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
| Premise of the movie [http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1363468/ Zenith] - further details are in the [http://www.filmjournal.com/filmjournal/content_display/esearch/e3i25130cd57f1590bda4527c098ac85b01 film review for Zenith]
|
|-
| Childhood obesity reaches 100%
| [http://www.ivanhoe.com/channels/p_channelstory.cfm?storyid=11414 100-Percent Childhood Obesity Predicted by 2044]
|
|-
| 2045
| Humans and machines merge
| Ray Kurzweil predicts of 'singularity' which will lead to race of super intelligent beings
|
|-
| 2046
| World's natural resources depleted
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2047
| World ruled by banks and corporations
| [http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Schlock-2047-RM-Krakoff-ebook/dp/B0039IT37Q Future Schlock] - the story of a world turned upside down in 2047
|
|-
| Tobacco industry fails
| [http://www.news.wisc.edu/16857 Experts: Big Tobacco dead by 2047, possibly sooner]
|
|-
| US begins using autonomous attack drones
| [http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/aug/22/us-air-force-drones-pilots-afghanistan US Air Force prepares drones to end era of fighter pilots]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2048
| Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
| WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ Unsustainable fishing]
|
|-
| Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
| [http://future.wikia.com/wiki/RyansWorld:_Bathing_Suits_of_the_Future RyansWorld: Bathing Suits of the Future]
|
|-
| Entire US population overweight
| Article archive - [https://web.archive.org/web/20090321075605/http://thestatsblog.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/scientists-say-thin-people-face-extinction-in-united-states-everyone-will-be-overweight-by-2048-%E2%80%93-and-less-smart Scientists Say Thin People Face Extinction in United States: Everyone Will Be Overweight by 2048 – And Less Smart]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2049
| $1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
| [http://www.americanbar.org/content/newsletter/publications/technology_e_report_home/2007_may_technotes.html TechNotes: Trends in Technology]
|
|-
| Singularity occurs
| [http://www.prismdecision.com/the-singularity-is-near The Singularity Is Near]
|
|-
| Fishing industry collapses
| This tends to happen when your food-stock is extinct - see WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ Unsustainable fishing]
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2050
| 80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
| [http://infochangeindia.org/population/books-a-reports/80-of-world-population-will-soon-be-in-urban-areas.html 80% of world population will soon be in urban areas]
|
|-
| China controls space
| [https://books.google.com/books?id=op851Uf99LQC&dq=China+controls+space+2050&source=gbs_navlinks_s Space Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050]
|
|-
| Sex with robots possible
| [http://www.livescience.com/1951-forecast-sex-marriage-robots-2050.html Forecast: Sex and Marriage with Robots by 2050]
|
|-
| Cars banned from European cities
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/8411336/EU-to-ban-cars-from-cities-by-2050.html EU to ban cars from cities by 2050]
|
|-
| One million species extinct from climate change
| [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/01/0107_040107_extinction.html By 2050 Warming to Doom Million Species, Study Says]
|
|-
| 2051
| Atmosphere escapes into space
| [http://www.thehulltruth.com/boating-outdoor-photos/255705-have-you-ever-seen-fallstreak-hole.html Conspiracy theory] relating to {{w|Fallstreak hole}} or hole punch clouds.
|
|-
| 2052
| Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2053
| US budget balanced
| [http://crfb.org/blogs/omb-releases-long-term-projections-fy2015-budget-proposal OMB releases long-term projections for the FY2015 budget proposal]
|
|-
| Majority of Americans in prison
| [http://articles.philly.com/1992-06-14/news/26032105_1_prison-officials-prison-time-prison-commissioners 'Beyond Bricks And Bars' As Jails Overflow, The Lock-'em-up Credo Is Drawing Unlikely Criticism - From Prison Officials Themselves]
|
|-
| Cars driven by dogs
|
| This has [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWAK0J8Uhzk already occurred] in 2012!
|-
| 2054
| Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
| [http://www.albionmonitor.com/0403a/earth2054.html Hunger Could Be 'Unimaginable' Global Problem By 2054]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2055
| Atmospheric CO2 doubled
| [http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/flash_intro.php Carbon Mitigation Initiative: Stabilization Wedges]
|
|-
| Oil runs out
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
| [http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/environment/5-valuable-metals-that-could-vanish-by-2055 5 Valuable Metals That Could Vanish by 2055]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2056
| RFID-tagged driverless cars
| [http://www.zdnet.com/article/rfid-tagged-driverless-cars-on-roads-by-2056/ RFID-tagged driverless cars on roads by 2056]
|
|-
| Robots given same rights as humans
| [http://www.cc.gatech.edu/news/robots-given-same-rights-humans-2056 Robots Given Same Rights As Humans By 2056]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2057
| 150 Japanese settlers on Mars
| [http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/9011051292/will-japan-colonize-mars Will Japan colonize Mars?]
|
|-
| Colorado River runs dry
| [http://news.agu.org/press-release/colorado-river-reservoirs-could-bottom-out-from-warming-business-as-usual/ Colorado River Reservoirs Could Bottom Out From Warming]
|
|-
| 2058
| Smoking ends in New Zealand
| [http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10698966 Smoking to die out in NZ by 2058]
|
|-
| 2059
| Humans have domesticated robots
| [http://diehardempiricist.blogspot.co.nz/2012/05/6-may-2011-virtual-necking-demography.html Virtual necking, demography, and robots]
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2060
| Human race lives in peace
| [http://www.arasfoundation.org/vision.html ARAS vision/mission]
|
|-
| Extreme droughts across much of Earth
| [http://wdas.cosmosmagazine.com/news/extreme-drought-across-most-earth-30-years/ Extreme drought across most of Earth by 2060]
|
|-
| Global temperature rise reaches 4 °C
| {{w|Avoiding dangerous climate change}}
|
|-
| Oil runs out again
| [http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/01/oil-may-run-out-by-2060-hsbc/?__lsa=98a7-5c61 Oil may run out by 2060: HSBC]
|
|-
| 2061
| Halley's comet returns
| Halley's comet returns to the inner solar system (the vicinity of earth and the sun) every 75.3 years. The last time it was near earth was in 1985-1986. When it next returns, its closest approach to the sun will occur on 28 July 2061.<ref name=horizons>[http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi Donald K. Yeomans. "Horizon Online Ephemeris System". California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 8 September 2006.]</ref>
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2062
| Uganda hosts World Cup
| [http://shillingscents.blogspot.co.nz/2010/07/uganda-to-host-world-cup-in-2062.html Uganda to host world cup in 2062]
|
|-
| The Jetsons
| {{w|The Jetsons}} was an animated science fiction sitcom that first aired in 1962. The show was set in the year 2062.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2063
| First human clones reach adulthood
| [http://au.ign.com/articles/2004/04/28/the-fall-last-days-of-gaia-diary-2 The Fall - Last Days of Gaia Diary #2]
|
|-
| Population of Moon reaches 100,000
| Reading Eagle newspaper article from July 17, 1963 - [http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1955&dat=19630717&id=PhgrAAAAIBAJ&sjid=B50FAAAAIBAJ&pg=4055,6599008 Moon Population of 100,000 Is Predicted for 2063] and [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Population of Mars reaches 10,000
| [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Spacecraft exceed speed of light
| Physics as currently understood states that it is impossible to exceed the speed of light. A monumental shift in our physics would have had to have occurred for this to come true. This is a reference to the 8th Star Trek feature Film: "Star Trek: First Contact" where Zefram Cochrane performs the first human Warp Flight on April 5, 2063.
|
|-
| 2064
| Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
| [http://www.cleanhouston.org/air/features/hazyfuture.htm State plan guarantees a hazy future for Texas’ wilderness areas]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2065
| Last coral reefs die out
| From an [http://www.edgeofexistence.org/coral_reef_conservation/coral_reef_video.php article about a video called Reefs on the Edge] set in 2065 where a 15-year-old girl tells her grandfather's stories of coral reefs, and their demise.
|
|-
| Chernobyl cleanup complete
| [http://rt.com/politics/chernobyl-clean-in-55-years-time/ Chernobyl clean in 55 years time?]
|
|-
| 2066
| Cyprus achieves its goal
| This is from some [http://www.cyprus-forum.com/cyprus33608-110.html#p665612 forum posts on the decendants of Cypriots] that lends support to the autonomy of Cyprus from Greek or Turkey.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2067
| Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
| The article at [http://blogs.lib.unc.edu/ncm/index.php/2013/11/15/artifact-of-the-month-slide-rule-1916/ Artifact of the Month: Slide rule, 1916] includes information from the International Slide Rule Museum that "in 1967, Keuffel & Esser Co. commissioned a study of the future, predicting that Americans in 2067 would live in domed cities and watch 3D television."
|
|-
| Redheads go extinct
| [http://science.howstuffworks.com/life/genetic/redhead-extinction.htm Are redheads going extinct?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2068
| Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
| [http://www.theozonehole.com/recovery.htm NASA Study Finds Clock Ticking Slower On Ozone Hole Recovery]
|
|-
| Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
| [http://myth-one.com/chapter_8.htm The Resurrections -- What Really Happens]
|
|-
| Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
| [http://thedailybanter.com/2013/01/alex-jones-the-government-is-trying-to-make-more-gay-people/ Alex Jones talks about chemicals that make people gay]
|
|-
| 2069
| Public masturbation legalized
| [http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/UnNews:It's_still_not_okay_to_Pull_Your_Penis_out_in_Public It's still not okay to Pull Your Penis out in Public]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2070
| World population peaks
| [http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1108-global-population-to-peak-in-2070.html Global population to peak in 2070]
|
|-
| City-scale flooding disasters
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthnews/3317033/City-scale-flooding-disasters-predicted-by-2070.html City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070]
|
|-
| 60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
| [http://www.ssisolarenergy.com/solar-alternative-energy/ What Is Alternative Energy All About?]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2071
| Europe's temperatures rise by 3 °C
| [http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/climate-energy/climate-change-adaptation/adaptation-tools/project-catalog/peseta-projection-of-economic-impacts-of-climate Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis]
|
|-
| World summer temperatures rise by 5 °C
| [http://www.climateadaptation.eu/denmark/climate-change/ See "Air temperature changes in the 21st century"]
|
|-
| 2072
| US retirement age is set to 75
| [http://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/articles/2012/06/11/how-high-will-the-retirement-age-go Up to 70-80 years]
|
|-
| 2073
| Oceans do not rise one foot
| [http://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm More like 2 feet]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2074
| Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
| [http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-8848188.html UK to have 1 million centenarians by 2074]
|
|-
| Supertyphoons hit Japan
| [http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/09/08/national/super-typhoons-in-store-as-seas-warm/ Super typhoons in store as seas warm]
|
|-
| 2075
| US retirement age set to 69
| [http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2010/1112/Retirement-age-at-69-Deficit-plan-hits-Social-Security Retirement age at 69? Deficit plan hits Social Security]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2076
| Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
| [https://doclib.uhasselt.be/dspace/bitstream/1942/871/1/yitzhaki373.PDF Multiple Authorship in Biochemistry and Other Fields] (PDF)
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2078
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The same prediction was made for 2017 and 2022. Even when most prognosticators agree that something will happen, there can still be much disagreement about ''when'' it will happen.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2079
| US debt reaches 716% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
| [http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2011/feb/climate-change-causing-demise-lodgepole-pine-western-north-america Climate change causing demise of lodgepole pine in western North America]
|
|-
| Floods commonplace
| [http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090108101627.htm Floods To Become Commonplace By 2080]
|
|-
| Religion marginalized
| http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-11347073
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2080
| Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
| [http://crfb.org/sites/default/files/our_debt_problems_are_far_from_solved_updated_2.pdf Our debt problems are far from solved] (PDF)
|
|-
| UK population doubles
| [http://forums.canadiancontent.net/international-politics/69603-britains-population-hit-110-million.html Britain's population to hit 110 million]
|
|-
| 2082
| World population declines to one billion
| [http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html Population: The Elephant in the Room]
|
|-
| 2084
| Robot policemen introduced
| [http://www.thetechherald.com/articles/Robotic-cops-set-to-stamp-out-crime-by-2084 Robotic cops set to stamp out crime by 2084]
|
|-
| 2085
| US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
| [http://moneybob.com/2010/06/28/paul-krugman-throws-in-towel-says-were-headed-for-another-depression/ Paul Krugman Throws In Towel, Says We’re Headed For Another Depression]
|
|-
| 2088
| Japan becomes all-robot country
| [http://www.theretributioners.tv/erics-blog/2009/11/25/-japan-to-become-all-robot-country-by-2088.html Japan To Become All Robot Country By 2088]
|
|-
| 2089
| World halts fossil fuel use
| {{w|Fossil Fuels}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2090
| Global warming hits 7 °C
| [http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/models-warn-of-7c-dangerous-climate-change-by-2090.html Models warn of 7C dangerous climate change by 2090]. Climate change, especially global warming, is a [[:Category:Climate change|recurring theme]] in xkcd.
|
|-
| Global warming hits 4 °C
| Summarized [http://www.global-warming-forecasts.com/2090-climate-change-global-warming-2090.php here]. In reference to Andy Bowers, “Analysis: Scientists say global warming could affect California's drinking water supply,” NPR All Things Considered, June 22, 2001
|
|-
| rowspan="11"| 2100
| Global warming around 5-7 °C
| [http://grist.org/article/bau-fd/ Hadley Center study warns of ‘catastrophic’ 5-7°C warming by 2100 on current emissions path]
|
|-
| Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
| {{w|Future sea level}}
|
|-
| Joshua trees nearly extinct
| [http://news.discovery.com/earth/joshua-trees-climate-change-110325.htm Joshua Trees Nearly Wiped Out by 2100?]
|
|-
| Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
| [http://www.pnas.org/content/107/2/576 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100]
|
|-
| Germany tropical
| [http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/climate-change-predictions-a-tropical-germany-by-2100-a-463378.html Climate Change Predictions: A Tropical Germany by 2100?]
|
|-
| Emperor penguins extinct
| [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7851276.stm Emperor penguins face extinction]
|
|-
| Arctic permafrost thaws
| [http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/surface-permafrost-could/ Surface Permafrost Could Disappear by 2100]
|
|-
| Rising seas flood coastal cities
| [http://uanews.org/story/rising-seas-will-affect-major-us-coastal-cities-2100 Rising Seas Will Affect Major U.S. Coastal Cities by 2100]
|
|-
| Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
| [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/08/06/890970/-Massive-Loss-of-Rainforest-Species-by-2100-eKos-Earthship-Friday Massive Loss of Rainforest Species by 2100]
|
|-
| All coral reefs gone
| [http://planetsave.com/2010/10/15/coral-reefs-gone-by-2100/ Coral Reefs Gone by 2100?]
|
|-
| Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
| Each iteration of the Gillette line of safety razors has one more blade than the previous one. MadTV has also [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FAP8o5ZEo0 parodied] this. Over five years before MadTV did so, the Australian comedy group the D-Generation parodied the first two-bladed razor as the [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YleuLyCUx28 Gillette 3000] with 16 blades.
|
|-
| 2101
| WAR WAS BEGINNING
| References {{w|Zero Wing}}, a 1989 Japanese computer game set in 2101, famous for poorly translated English and the source for "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}".
|
|}
<references/>

==Transcript==

:<big>'''THE FUTURE'''</big>
:'''According to Google search results'''
:Events for each year determined by the first page of Google search results for the phrases:
:"By <year>" "In year"
:"By the year <year>" "In the year <year>"
:"Will * by the year <year>" "Will * in the year <year>"
:"In <year>, * will" "By <year>, * will"
:
:;2012
::World population reaches 7 billion
::Flying cars reach market
::Canada cuts greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels as per Kyoto
::Apocalypse occurs
:;2013
::National debt paid off through President Clinton's plans
::Microchipping of all Americans begins
::Homelessness ended in Massachusetts
::Health care reform law repealed
:;2014
::US leaves Afghanistan
::GNU/Linux becomes dominant OS
:;2015
::New Horizons reaches Pluto
::Health care law causes hyperinflation
::192 UN member nations achieve millennium development goals:
::*Extreme poverty and hunger eradicated
::*Universal primary education implemented
::*Women empowered, gender equality reached
::*Environmental stability ensured
:;2016
::Baby boomers begin turning 65
::Android takes 38% of the smartphone market
::Android takes 45% of the smartphone market
::Windows Phone overtakes iOS in smartphones
:;2017
::China completes unmanned Lunar sample-return mission
::Social Security stops running surplus
::US budget balanced
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
::Cosmetic surgery doubles
:;2018
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Jesus returns to Earth
:;2019
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Every baby has genes mapped at birth
:;2020
::Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
::Keyboards and mice become obsolete
::New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
:;2021
::US debt reaches 97% of GDP
::US unemployment falls to 2.8%
::Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
::Lake Mead evaporates
:;2022
::Kilimanjaro snow-free
::HTML 5 finished
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2023
::Jesus returns to Earth (again)
::US debt passes 100% of GDP
::All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
:;2024
::Atlantis begins to reappear
::Orangutans extinct in wild
::China lands men and women on the moon
::NASA sets up permanent moon base
::Female professionals pass males in pay
:;2025
::World population reaches 8 billion
::Two billion people face water shortages
::62 MPG cars introduced
::US power fades
:;2026
::Atlantis emerges completely
::Rock Bands die out
::US debt paid off
::Car accidents cease
::West coast falls into ocean
:;2027
::Japan introduces new fastest maglev train
::Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony established
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2028
::Tobacco outlawed
::40% of coral reefs gone
::US debt paid off
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2029
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
::Computers pass the Turing Test
::Aging reversed
::Wikipedia reaches 30 million articles
:;2030
::Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
::Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
::Arctic ice-free in summer
:;2031
::Computers controlled by thought
::Realtors replaced by technology
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2032
::"Big One" hits San Francisco
::US elects first married lesbian president
::Entire world converted to Christianity
:;2033
::Kilimanjaro ice disappears
::India becomes superpower
::Europe reaches Mars
:;2034
::US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
::US builds autonomous robot army
:;2035
::80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
::Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
::Arctic sea lane opens
:;2036
::80% of US has access to high-speed rail
::Asteroid Apophis hits/misses Earth
:;2037
::Arctic ice-free in September
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2038
::32-bit timestamps role over, causing Y2K-level chaos
::"Big One" hits California
:;2039
::US population hits 400 million
::Severe heat waves become commonplace
::Scientology becomes majority religion in US
:;2040
::Arctic summers ice-free
::Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
:;2041
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2042
:;2043
::World population passes 9 billion
:;2044
::Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
::Childhood obesity reaches 100%
:;2045
::Humans and machines merge
:;2046
::World's natural resources depleted
:;2047
::World ruled by banks and corporations
::Tobacco industry fails
::US begins using autonomous attack drones
:;2048
::Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
::Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
::Entire US population overweight
:;2049
::$1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
::Singularity occurs
::Fishing industry collapses
:;2050
::80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
::China controls space
::Sex with robots possible
::Cars banned from European cities
::One million species extinct from climate change
:;2051
::Atmosphere escapes into space
:;2052
::Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
:;2053
::US budget balanced
::Majority of Americans in prison
::Cars driven by dogs
:;2054
::Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
:;2055
::Atmospheric CO2 doubled
::Oil runs out
::Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
:;2056
::RFID-tagged driverless cars
::Robots given same rights as humans
:;2057
::150 Japanese settlers on Mars
::Colorado River runs dry
:;2058
::Smoking ends in New Zealand
:;2059
::Humans have domesticated robots
:;2060
::Human race lives in peace
::Extreme droughts across much of Earth
::Global temperature rise reaches 4°C
::Oil runs out again
:;2061
::Halley's comet returns
:;2062
::Uganda hosts World Cup
::The Jetsons
:;2063
::First human clones reach adulthood
::Population of Moon reaches 100,000
::Population of Mars reaches 10,000
::Spacecraft exceed speed of light
:;2064
::Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
:;2065
::Last coral reefs die out
::Chernobyl cleanup complete
:;2066
::Cyprus achieves its goal
:;2067
::Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
::Redheads go extinct
:;2068
::Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
::Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
::Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
:;2069
::Public masturbation legalized
:;2070
::World population peaks
::City-scale flooding disasters
::60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
:;2071
::Europe's temperatures rise by 3°C
::World summer temperatures rise by 5°C
:;2072
::US retirement age is set to 75
:;2073
::Oceans do not rise one foot
:;2074
::Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
::Supertyphoons hit Japan
:;2075
::US retirement age set to 69
:;2076
::Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2077
:;2078
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2079
::US debt reaches 716% of GDP
::Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
::Floods commonplace
::Religion marginalized
:;2080
::Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
::UK population doubles
:;2081
:;2082
::World population declines to one billion
:;2083
:;2084
::Robot policemen introduced
:;2085
::US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
:;2086
:;2087
:;2088
::Japan becomes all-robot country
:;2089
::World halts fossil fuel use
:;2090
::Global warming hits 7°C
::Global warming hits 4°C
:;2091
:;2092
:;2093
:;2094
:;2095
:;2096
:;2097
:;2098
:;2099
:;2100
::Global warming around 5-7°C
::Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
::Joshua trees nearly extinct
::Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
::Germany tropical
::Emperor penguins extinct
::Arctic permafrost thaws
::Rising seas flood coastal cities
::Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
::All coral reefs gone
::Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
:;2101
::WAR WAS BEGINNING

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Large drawings]]
[[Category:Timelines]]
[[Category:Google Search]]
[[Category:Climate change]]
[[Category:Singularity]]
[[Category:Renewable energy]]
[[Category:Smartphones]]
[[Category:Wikipedia]]

887: Future Timeline

2021-03-30T01:42:58Z

Troy0: "Accuracy" subsection eliminated as duplicating "The predictions" section

{{comic
| number = 887
| date = April 18, 2011
| title = Future Timeline
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]
| image = future timeline.png
| titletext = Not shown: the approximately 30,000 identical, vaguely hysterical articles titled "WHITE PEOPLE IN [THE US/BRITAIN] TO BECOME MINORITY BY [YEAR]!", which came up for basically any year I put in.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a PSEUDO-TIME TRAVELLER. A lot of things can be elaborated on. Well, this explanation can't really be finished before 2101... Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic uses the same strategy as comic [[715: Numbers]], in which [[Randall]] uses Google to search for phrases and then charts the results. This one is charted as a timeline, whereas 715 was charted as line graphs.
It is a list of things predicted or announced by anyone at any time (the ones you see on Google search using "by the year..." or similar statements).

"2101 - War Was Beginning" is a reference to the opening narration of video game ''Zero Wing''; the same narration is famous for the internet meme "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}". As there are not any other out and out references in the comic, and the rest are actually results that you can find using Randall's methods, "War Was Beginning" was probably the only thing he got when he googled 2101 as well.

Certain events in this comic, e.g. "Social Security stops running surplus", are repeated multiple times. Also, certain bizarre events, like "Apocalypse occurs", or "Flying cars reach market", happen before rather plausible things, like "HTML 5 Finished". Certain events, like "Japan is a robot-only country" or "Gillette introduces 14-blade razor" may be related to the recurring theme [[605: Extrapolating]].

The title text is a reference to a reoccurring scaremonger theory that Caucasian people will become a minority or extinct as other ethnicities outbreed them. For maximum scaremongering they will claim this could happen in the near future, complete with extrapolated graphs. In the years since this comic was published these conspiracy theories have come to be known as "the great replacement" or "white genocide". Scaremongers are banking on the idea their target audience will rarely bother to fact check,<ref>https://www.cjr.org/special_report/media-literacy-trump-fake-news.php</ref> as analysis of their extrapolations usually reveals incorrect methodology if not outright lies<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUbxVfSqtt8</ref>.

This comic has similar features to [[1413: Suddenly Popular]], [[1093: Forget]], and [[891: Movie Ages]].

==The predictions==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Year
! Prediction
! Further Details
! Outcome
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2012
| World population
| Ever since the advent of modern medicine and the more efficient agricultural processes developed since the Industrial Revolution, the human population had been growing at an unprecedented rate. This has caused some people to worry about overpopulation, which would cause a scarcity of resources and overcrowding, and propose various solutions, most of which involve some form of eugenics. 7 billion is a landmark number because it is a multiple of 1 billion.
| Close: Earth reached 7 billion in late 2011.
|-
| Flying cars
| For decades, flying cars have been a staple of futuristic sci-fi and technological predictions. So far very few of these predictions, which to tend to hover around 5–10 years from whatever the current date is, have come true.
| False; still 5-10 years away. You could argue that helicopters count as flying cars.
|-
| Canada cuts greenhouse emissions
| Currently, the Earth is experiencing an unprecedented period of warming we call global warming, caused in part by greenhouse emissions, which are gases that help trap heat in the atmosphere. Countries have repeatedly gotten together and promised to stop emitting greenhouse gases, but so far they have failed to meet their targets.
| False. Canada withdrew from Kyoto treaty in late 2011, and its emissions in 2012 were 18% ''above'' 1990 levels (though its population had grown 26% and its GDP had grown 67% in that period).
|-
| Apocalypse occurs
| The end of a cycle of the Mayan calendar on December 22, 2012 has been used in popular culture as a basis for predicting the end of the world. Amongst other things, this included the film '2012'. Some people took this rather more seriously, and actually believed that the world would end on this date.
| False.{{Citation needed}}
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2013
| National debt paid off
| For years, the subject of national debt has been a political point of contention. While both parties theoretically support reducing the debt or paying it off entirely, Democrats are more willing to spend to pull the country out of recessions in the economy and Republicans to cut taxes. The last time that spending did not exceed revenue begin under Clinton, a Democrat, and ended after George W. Bush, a Republican, said that this amounted to taxpayers being "overcharged" and taxes were lowered, followed by the Great Recession. Clinton at one point proposed [http://money.cnn.com/1999/06/28/economy/clinton/ paying off the debt by 2015].
| False.
|-
| Microchipping Americans
| Microchips are small computer chips, typically embedded in pets in case they get lost, that contain information about the pet. Some, more paranoid, people worry about the government microchipping everyone in an effort to monitor their activities.
| False, although [https://www.google.com/search?q=rfid+implants RFID implants] do exist.
|-
| Homelessness ended in MA
| In 2008, the Commission To End Homelessness in Massachusetts, under Governor Deval Patrick, proposed a plan to all but eliminate homelessness over the next five years (hence the 2013 end-date on the comic).
| False.
|-
| Health care reform law repealed
| A health care reform law, popularly known as Obamacare, was signed into law in 2010. Ever since, many Republicans have tried (in vain) to repeal it, disliking the idea that government should provide and require healthcare.
| Too early; almost repealed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2014
| US leaves Afghanistan
| After the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11, 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan, which at the time allegedly hosted the headquarters of al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization behind the attacks. The war has gone on since then, with the public growing increasingly tired of it. Public support now favors a withdrawal, but for military and logistical reasons, the government cannot simply move all the troops currently in Afghanistan home right now. For one, that would cause immediate chaos in the country. Therefore, the government instead promises to eventually withdraw all troops, planning on doing so by the end of 2014.
| False. As of October 2019, 13,000 US troops remain in Afghanistan.
|-
| GNU/Linux dominant OS
| An operating system, or OS, is the software that forms the structure in which applications on you computer function. Some typical OSs include Mac OS X, Windows 10, and Linux. The first two of those three are commercial products, sold as a copy by a company. The last is an open-source OS, one that anyone can download and modify free. Typically, open-source software is used by a small number of socially conscious people.
| False, although Linux-based Android dominated phones since 2011.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2015
| New Horizon reaches Pluto
| The New Horizon spacecraft is a U.S. space mission designed to go to Pluto and take photographs, collect samples, etc.
| True. [http://pluto.jhuapl.edu It reached Pluto on July 14, 2015].
|-
| Healthcare law causes hyperinflation
| The National Inflation Association warns that the [http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/healthcare-bill-to-cause-us-hyperinflation-by-2015-88711032.html Healthcare Bill to Cause U.S. Hyperinflation By 2015]
| False.
|-
| Millennium development goals achieved
| {{w|Millennium Development Goals}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2016
| Baby boomers begin turning 65
| {{w|Baby boomers}} are individuals conceived in the years following World War Two, roughly defined as those born from 1946-1959. This isn't so much a prediction as basic math; if you were born in 1946, you turned 65 in 2011.
| True.
|-
| Android takes 38%/45% of market share
| {{w|Android (operating system)|Android}} is a popular operating system for smartphones and tablets, created by Google. Market share is the percentage of all devices that use the product, in this case the Android operating system. These entries together are humorous because they cannot both happen at the same time.
| Too late; passed these marks in 2010. {{w|Android OS}}' market share was already 84.4% as of the third quarter of 2014, showing that both estimates were overly conservative.<ref>http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp</ref>
|-
| Windows phone overtakes iOS
| {{w|iOS}} is the operating system used by Apple iPhones. At the time of the comic, Apple's mobile OS is much more popular than Microsoft's. The article Randall found predicts that the tables will turn. However, Windows Phone was discontinued in 2017, with support for the last version (Windows Phone 10) ending on December 10, 2019.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2017
| China completes lunar mission
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
| False. The first sample-return mission was completed in November 2020.
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| The first of many predictions about the United States {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} trust fund program, all predicting its decline due to a variety of factors.
| False
|-
| US budget balanced
| The {{w|United States federal budget}} outlines how much the US government spends on what in a given fiscal year. The budget is not required to be balanced, and so often more money is spent than is earned in revenue, causing the national debt to rise.
| False. Still far negative.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The increasing popularity of internet media and mobile devices has caused a steady decline in the popularity of print media.
| False. Though newspapers are in decline, they are certainly not obsolete as of 2017.
|-
| Cosmetic surgery doubles
| {{w|Cosmetic Surgery}}
| False. According to the ASPS (American Society of Plastic Surgeons), 1.6 million cosmetic surgeries were performed in 2011, while 1.8 million were performed in 2017, an increase of only 0.2 million.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2018
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still false.
|-
| Jesus returns to Earth
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the second coming, the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible itself says that "no man can know the date". Several predicted dates have come and gone.
| False
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2019
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still false.
|-
| Every baby has genes mapped at birth
| {{w|Gene Mapping}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2020
| Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
| Scientists estimate that more than half of the {{w|fossil fuels}} in existence have already been found and that fossil fuel production will begin to decline due to the scarcity, causing prices to increase. At the same time, improvements in {{w|Solar Power|solar technology}} are causing the prices for solar energy to steadily decrease.
| True, though only in {{w|Cost of electricity by source#Recent_global_studies|certain cases}}.
|-
| Keyboards and mice become obsolete
| {{w|Computer input device}} are beginning to adopt other methods of input, such as voice commands, touch screens, and eye tracking. While the use of touch screens in particular is gaining widespread use, as of 2014 none has come close to making keyboards and mice obsolete. None of them allows text input as fast as a keyboard, and none is suitable for writing program code.
| False. While touchscreen devices ''are'' increasingly common, both laptop and desktop computers are still very much in use. Mice continue to be used alongside touchscreens and trackpads, and keyboards remain the dominant method of writing on computers.
|-
| New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
| A {{w|Tappan_Zee_Bridge#Replacement_bridge|replacement bridge}} was announced in 2008.
| Too late; completed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2021
| US debt reaches 97% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
| Too late; reached in 2011.
|-
| US unemployment falls to 2.8%
| {{w|Unemployment in the United States}}
|
|-
| Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
| A {{w|caliphate}} is a form of {{w|Islam|Islamic}} political-religious leadership, centred around a Caliph, or successor to the prophet {{w|Muhammad}}. This may be foreshadowing of the Islamic State of Iraq and greater Syria, which has as its goal the creation of a restored caliphate.
|
|-
| Lake Mead evaporates
| Formed by the {{w|Hoover Dam}} on the {{w|Colorado River}}, {{w|Lake Mead}} is the largest reservoir in the United States (measured by maximum capacity). It hasn't reached its capacity since 1983, due to drought and increased demand for water. This is linked to {{w|global warming}}.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2022
| Kilimanjaro snow-free
| At 5,895 metres, {{w|Kilimanjaro}} is the highest mountain in {{w|Africa}}, and the highest free-standing mountain in the world. Around 85% of its ice cover disappeared between 1912 and 2011, and it continues to recede.
|
|-
| HTML 5 finished
| The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) began work on {{w|HTML 5}} in 2004.
| Too late; 5.0 specification released in 2014, but incremental updates continue.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| This is the second time this prediction has appeared.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2023
| Jesus returns to Earth (again)
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the second coming, the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible itself says that "no man can know the date". Several predicted dates have come and gone.
|
|-
| US debt passes 100% of GDP
| This references the common fear that {{w|US Debt}} will exceed GDP, possibly causing [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble economic turmoil].
| Too late; reached in 2012.
|-
| All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
| Likely due to a combination of wildfire and {{w|deforestation}}
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2024
| Atlantis begins to reappear
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea.
|
|-
| Orangutans extinct in wild
| {{w|Orangutan|Orangutans}} are a species of great ape, currently classed as an {{w|endangered species}}, and found only in the {{w|Rainforest|rainforests}} of {{w|Borneo}} and {{w|Sumatra}}.
|
|-
| China lands men and women on the moon
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
|
|-
| NASA sets up permanent moon base
| There has been a lot of hype recently about finally returning to the moon, vis-a-vis Orion.
|
|-
| Female professionals pass males in pay
| There are two possible explanations for this entry: Either it's fear-mongering from misogynists or, more probably, an erroneous extrapolation from the current rate at which female incomes are catching up to male incomes.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2025
| World population reaches 8 billion
| Given current rates, it seems unlikely it will take this long to hit 8 billion, but advances in birth control options and especially their availability in developing nations may slow the current rate considerably.
|
|-
| Two billion people face water shortages
| http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/28-01-2008/103693-water_crisis-0/
|
|-
| 62 MPG cars introduced
| 62 miles per gallon, ~3.8 L/100km. 62 MPG is a very good mileage rate at today's standard, even though [http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=5231050&page=1 some cars can be driven carefully so as to attain over 100 MPG].
|
|-
| US power fades
| http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-us-power-will-fade-by-2025/
| Hard to know what the precise metric for this would be.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2026
| Atlantis emerges completely
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. It seems that it has taken 2 years for it to emerge completely.
|
|-
| Rock Bands die out
| https://bestbands.wordpress.com/2009/01/25/rock-bands-to-die-out-by-2026/
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}} [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/business/27view.html It’s 2026, and the Debt Is Due].
|
|-
| Car accidents cease
| Presumably, cars will be fully automated and able to pilot themselves at this point and will have fail-safes that prevent collisions currently attributed to user error. Car accidents will always be possible, however, due to mechanical and electrical failures.
|
|-
| West coast falls into ocean
| Most likely due to {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|a significant seismic event}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2027
| Japan introduces new fastest Maglev train
| Japan's railway systems are famous for their "bullet trains", or {{w|Shinkansen}}. The Chūō Shinkansen is planned to be opened in this year.
|
|-
| Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony is established
| http://totse.mattfast1.com/en/technology/space_astronomy_nasa/moonmars.html
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2028
| Tobacco outlawed
| Tobacco products (cigarettes and chewing tobacco) have become more and more taboo in modern culture, with most public places and private businesses forbidding their use indoors and near places children congregate.
|
|-
| 40% of coral reefs gone
| Many factors have been attributed to the decline of {{w|Coral_reef#Threats|coral reefs}}, including mining, over fishing, and rising ocean tempteratures.
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2029
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| Computers pass the Turing test
| It is no coincidence that 2029 is the timeline for Terminator Movies.
| Some computer programs already clear the Turing Test about 30% of the time.
|-
| Aging reversed
| Manhattan Beach Project to reverse aging by 2029
|
|-
| Wikipedia reaches 30 Million articles
|
| As of 00:00, 5 January 2015 (UTC), Wikipedia has over 34 million total articles, if all languages are included. The source being cited may have meant the English language Wikipedia, which has only 5.94 million articles, as of 1 October 2019.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2030
| Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
| WWF press release - [http://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/climate-change-speeds-up-amazon-s-destruction-says-wwf Climate Change Speeds Up Amazon’s Destruction] referring to a report on the [http://assets.panda.org/downloads/amazonas_eng_04_12b_web.pdf Amazon's vicious cycles] (PDF)
|
|-
| Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
| From the [http://www.cancer.org/myacs/newengland/global-cancer-burden-to-double-by-2030 Global Cancer Burden to Nearly Double by 2030] article about the article from page 37 of [http://www.cancer.org/research/cancerfactsfigures/globalcancerfactsfigures/global-facts-figures-2nd-ed Global Cancer Facts & Figures 2nd edition].
|
|-
| Arctic ice-free in summer
| http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-video-ap.html
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2031
| Computers controlled by thought
| http://www.gizmag.com/future-mobile-technology/17554/
| As of 2017, this is {{w|Brain–computer interface|already possible}}, but still not used in any mass available devices as of 2021.
|-
| Realtors replaced by technology
| http://agbeat.com/editorials/will-realtors-be-replaced-by-technology-by-the-year-2031/
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| http://crfb.org/blogs/cbo-95-percent-confident-social-security-trust-fund-runs-out-25-years
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2032
| "Big One" hits San Francisco
| http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Quake-scientists-predict-Big-One-likely-by-2032-2653745.php {{w|San Franscisco}} is located on the {{w|San Andreas Fault}}, which is predicted to produce a magnitude 7+ earthquake in the 'near future'. This event is referred to as {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|"The Big One"}}.
|
|-
| US elects first married lesbian President
| http://4chandata.org/g/In-what-major-ways-do-you-think-the-world-of-2032-will-be-different-from-that-of-today-a20155
|
|-
| Entire world converted to Christianity
| http://www.goddiscussion.com/38920/christian-domininionsts-to-take-over-the-world-by-2032/
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2033
| Kilimanjaro ice disappears
| http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/02/idUSL2210825
|
|-
| India becomes superpower
| https://www.facebook.com/pages/India-A-SuperPower-by-2033/151177191568098 ?
|
|-
| Europe reaches Mars
| [http://www.spacedaily.com/news/esa-general-03zb.html Specifically, a manned European mission]. ESA's {{w|Mars Express}} probe landed in 2003.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2034
| US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
| [http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/27/us-diabetes-usa-costs-idUSTRE5AQ0C220091127 U.S. diabetes cases to double, costs triple by 2034]
|
|-
| US builds autonomous robot army
| The concept of robots built for military service is another common element of science fiction stories. [http://www.aos-inc.com/index.php/medialias/press-releases?id=112 Unmanned Systems] article, about the [http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA522247 2009-2034 Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap] publication ([http://www.amazon.com/2009-Unmanned-Integrated-Aircraft-Technologies-ebook/dp/B0047743A0 details at Amazon])
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2035
| 80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
| From fact sheet on Obama's [http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/fact-sheet-state-union-president-obamas-plan-win-future State of the Union]
|
|-
| Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
| From an IPCC report on [https://web.archive.org/web/20100116132657/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html The Himalayan glaciers] that has been analysed in quite some depth. See for example detailed article on an [http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/02/anatomy-of-ipccs-himalayan-glacier-year-2035-mess/ anatomy of IPCC’s mistake].
|
|-
| Arctic sea lane opens
| [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/730ef8fe-27e1-11e0-8abc-00144feab49a.html#axzz3OBgEHYNY Arctic sea lane could open by 2035]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2036
| 80% of US has access to high-speed rail
| [http://www.wnyc.org/story/284946-obama-80-percent-of-americans-should-have-access-to-high-speed-rail-by-2036/ Obama: 80 Percent of Americans Should Have Access to High Speed Rail By 2036]
|
|-
| Asteroid Apophis misses/hits Earth
| http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ 99942 Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2037
| Arctic ice-free in September
| {{w|Arctic sea ice decline}}
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2038
| 32-bit timestamps roll over, causing Y2K-level chaos
| 03:14:07 UTC on 19 January 2038, the value of time_t rolls over, that is it will return to zero. time_t is a computing standard measurement of time; it is a count of the number of seconds since 00:00:00 UTC on 1 January 1970. time_t is used by most computer systems to store date and time information. It is recommended that new software should convert to a 64 bit time_t; indeed, most operating systems designed to run on 64-bit hardware already use signed 64-bit time_t integers. This would give an epoch of 15:30:08 UTC on 4 December 292,277,026,596 (292 billion years away). Of course, legacy systems may not be upgradable so action taken now should prevent this becoming a problem closer to 2038...
|
|-
| "Big One" hits California
| [http://www.presstelegram.com/technology/20080414/the-big-one-likely-to-hit-by-2038 `The big one' likely to hit by 2038]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2039
| US population hits 400 Million
| [http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2008/us400million.aspx U.S. Population Projected to Hit 400 Million in 2039]
|
|-
| Severe heat waves become commonplace
| [http://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/july/extreme-heat-study-070810.html Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds]
|
|-
| Scientology becomes majority religion in US
| [http://home.snafu.de/tilman/2039.html Essay: Scientology in the year 2039]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2040
| Arctic summers ice-free
| [http://www.livescience.com/9419-arctic-summer-ice-free-2040.html Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2040]
|
|-
| Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
| [http://www.computerworld.com/article/2528330/app-development/nanotech-could-make-humans-immortal-by-2040--futurist-says.html Nanotech could make humans immortal by 2040, futurist says]
|
|-
| 2041
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2043
| World population passes 9 Billion
| {{w|Population growth}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2044
| Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
| Premise of the movie [http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1363468/ Zenith] - further details are in the [http://www.filmjournal.com/filmjournal/content_display/esearch/e3i25130cd57f1590bda4527c098ac85b01 film review for Zenith]
|
|-
| Childhood obesity reaches 100%
| [http://www.ivanhoe.com/channels/p_channelstory.cfm?storyid=11414 100-Percent Childhood Obesity Predicted by 2044]
|
|-
| 2045
| Humans and machines merge
| Ray Kurzweil predicts of 'singularity' which will lead to race of super intelligent beings
|
|-
| 2046
| World's natural resources depleted
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2047
| World ruled by banks and corporations
| [http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Schlock-2047-RM-Krakoff-ebook/dp/B0039IT37Q Future Schlock] - the story of a world turned upside down in 2047
|
|-
| Tobacco industry fails
| [http://www.news.wisc.edu/16857 Experts: Big Tobacco dead by 2047, possibly sooner]
|
|-
| US begins using autonomous attack drones
| [http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/aug/22/us-air-force-drones-pilots-afghanistan US Air Force prepares drones to end era of fighter pilots]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2048
| Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
| WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ Unsustainable fishing]
|
|-
| Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
| [http://future.wikia.com/wiki/RyansWorld:_Bathing_Suits_of_the_Future RyansWorld: Bathing Suits of the Future]
|
|-
| Entire US population overweight
| Article archive - [https://web.archive.org/web/20090321075605/http://thestatsblog.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/scientists-say-thin-people-face-extinction-in-united-states-everyone-will-be-overweight-by-2048-%E2%80%93-and-less-smart Scientists Say Thin People Face Extinction in United States: Everyone Will Be Overweight by 2048 – And Less Smart]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2049
| $1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
| [http://www.americanbar.org/content/newsletter/publications/technology_e_report_home/2007_may_technotes.html TechNotes: Trends in Technology]
|
|-
| Singularity occurs
| [http://www.prismdecision.com/the-singularity-is-near The Singularity Is Near]
|
|-
| Fishing industry collapses
| This tends to happen when your food-stock is extinct - see WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ Unsustainable fishing]
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2050
| 80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
| [http://infochangeindia.org/population/books-a-reports/80-of-world-population-will-soon-be-in-urban-areas.html 80% of world population will soon be in urban areas]
|
|-
| China controls space
| [https://books.google.com/books?id=op851Uf99LQC&dq=China+controls+space+2050&source=gbs_navlinks_s Space Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050]
|
|-
| Sex with robots possible
| [http://www.livescience.com/1951-forecast-sex-marriage-robots-2050.html Forecast: Sex and Marriage with Robots by 2050]
|
|-
| Cars banned from European cities
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/8411336/EU-to-ban-cars-from-cities-by-2050.html EU to ban cars from cities by 2050]
|
|-
| One million species extinct from climate change
| [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/01/0107_040107_extinction.html By 2050 Warming to Doom Million Species, Study Says]
|
|-
| 2051
| Atmosphere escapes into space
| [http://www.thehulltruth.com/boating-outdoor-photos/255705-have-you-ever-seen-fallstreak-hole.html Conspiracy theory] relating to {{w|Fallstreak hole}} or hole punch clouds.
|
|-
| 2052
| Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2053
| US budget balanced
| [http://crfb.org/blogs/omb-releases-long-term-projections-fy2015-budget-proposal OMB releases long-term projections for the FY2015 budget proposal]
|
|-
| Majority of Americans in prison
| [http://articles.philly.com/1992-06-14/news/26032105_1_prison-officials-prison-time-prison-commissioners 'Beyond Bricks And Bars' As Jails Overflow, The Lock-'em-up Credo Is Drawing Unlikely Criticism - From Prison Officials Themselves]
|
|-
| Cars driven by dogs
|
| This has [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWAK0J8Uhzk already occurred] in 2012!
|-
| 2054
| Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
| [http://www.albionmonitor.com/0403a/earth2054.html Hunger Could Be 'Unimaginable' Global Problem By 2054]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2055
| Atmospheric CO2 doubled
| [http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/flash_intro.php Carbon Mitigation Initiative: Stabilization Wedges]
|
|-
| Oil runs out
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
| [http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/environment/5-valuable-metals-that-could-vanish-by-2055 5 Valuable Metals That Could Vanish by 2055]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2056
| RFID-tagged driverless cars
| [http://www.zdnet.com/article/rfid-tagged-driverless-cars-on-roads-by-2056/ RFID-tagged driverless cars on roads by 2056]
|
|-
| Robots given same rights as humans
| [http://www.cc.gatech.edu/news/robots-given-same-rights-humans-2056 Robots Given Same Rights As Humans By 2056]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2057
| 150 Japanese settlers on Mars
| [http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/9011051292/will-japan-colonize-mars Will Japan colonize Mars?]
|
|-
| Colorado River runs dry
| [http://news.agu.org/press-release/colorado-river-reservoirs-could-bottom-out-from-warming-business-as-usual/ Colorado River Reservoirs Could Bottom Out From Warming]
|
|-
| 2058
| Smoking ends in New Zealand
| [http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10698966 Smoking to die out in NZ by 2058]
|
|-
| 2059
| Humans have domesticated robots
| [http://diehardempiricist.blogspot.co.nz/2012/05/6-may-2011-virtual-necking-demography.html Virtual necking, demography, and robots]
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2060
| Human race lives in peace
| [http://www.arasfoundation.org/vision.html ARAS vision/mission]
|
|-
| Extreme droughts across much of Earth
| [http://wdas.cosmosmagazine.com/news/extreme-drought-across-most-earth-30-years/ Extreme drought across most of Earth by 2060]
|
|-
| Global temperature rise reaches 4 °C
| {{w|Avoiding dangerous climate change}}
|
|-
| Oil runs out again
| [http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/01/oil-may-run-out-by-2060-hsbc/?__lsa=98a7-5c61 Oil may run out by 2060: HSBC]
|
|-
| 2061
| Halley's comet returns
| Halley's comet returns to the inner solar system (the vicinity of earth and the sun) every 75.3 years. The last time it was near earth was in 1985-1986. When it next returns, its closest approach to the sun will occur on 28 July 2061.<ref name=horizons>[http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi Donald K. Yeomans. "Horizon Online Ephemeris System". California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 8 September 2006.]</ref>
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2062
| Uganda hosts World Cup
| [http://shillingscents.blogspot.co.nz/2010/07/uganda-to-host-world-cup-in-2062.html Uganda to host world cup in 2062]
|
|-
| The Jetsons
| {{w|The Jetsons}} was an animated science fiction sitcom that first aired in 1962. The show was set in the year 2062.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2063
| First human clones reach adulthood
| [http://au.ign.com/articles/2004/04/28/the-fall-last-days-of-gaia-diary-2 The Fall - Last Days of Gaia Diary #2]
|
|-
| Population of Moon reaches 100,000
| Reading Eagle newspaper article from July 17, 1963 - [http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1955&dat=19630717&id=PhgrAAAAIBAJ&sjid=B50FAAAAIBAJ&pg=4055,6599008 Moon Population of 100,000 Is Predicted for 2063] and [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Population of Mars reaches 10,000
| [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Spacecraft exceed speed of light
| Physics as currently understood states that it is impossible to exceed the speed of light. A monumental shift in our physics would have had to have occurred for this to come true. This is a reference to the 8th Star Trek feature Film: "Star Trek: First Contact" where Zefram Cochrane performs the first human Warp Flight on April 5, 2063.
|
|-
| 2064
| Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
| [http://www.cleanhouston.org/air/features/hazyfuture.htm State plan guarantees a hazy future for Texas’ wilderness areas]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2065
| Last coral reefs die out
| From an [http://www.edgeofexistence.org/coral_reef_conservation/coral_reef_video.php article about a video called Reefs on the Edge] set in 2065 where a 15-year-old girl tells her grandfather's stories of coral reefs, and their demise.
|
|-
| Chernobyl cleanup complete
| [http://rt.com/politics/chernobyl-clean-in-55-years-time/ Chernobyl clean in 55 years time?]
|
|-
| 2066
| Cyprus achieves its goal
| This is from some [http://www.cyprus-forum.com/cyprus33608-110.html#p665612 forum posts on the decendants of Cypriots] that lends support to the autonomy of Cyprus from Greek or Turkey.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2067
| Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
| The article at [http://blogs.lib.unc.edu/ncm/index.php/2013/11/15/artifact-of-the-month-slide-rule-1916/ Artifact of the Month: Slide rule, 1916] includes information from the International Slide Rule Museum that "in 1967, Keuffel & Esser Co. commissioned a study of the future, predicting that Americans in 2067 would live in domed cities and watch 3D television."
|
|-
| Redheads go extinct
| [http://science.howstuffworks.com/life/genetic/redhead-extinction.htm Are redheads going extinct?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2068
| Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
| [http://www.theozonehole.com/recovery.htm NASA Study Finds Clock Ticking Slower On Ozone Hole Recovery]
|
|-
| Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
| [http://myth-one.com/chapter_8.htm The Resurrections -- What Really Happens]
|
|-
| Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
| [http://thedailybanter.com/2013/01/alex-jones-the-government-is-trying-to-make-more-gay-people/ Alex Jones talks about chemicals that make people gay]
|
|-
| 2069
| Public masturbation legalized
| [http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/UnNews:It's_still_not_okay_to_Pull_Your_Penis_out_in_Public It's still not okay to Pull Your Penis out in Public]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2070
| World population peaks
| [http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1108-global-population-to-peak-in-2070.html Global population to peak in 2070]
|
|-
| City-scale flooding disasters
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthnews/3317033/City-scale-flooding-disasters-predicted-by-2070.html City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070]
|
|-
| 60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
| [http://www.ssisolarenergy.com/solar-alternative-energy/ What Is Alternative Energy All About?]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2071
| Europe's temperatures rise by 3 °C
| [http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/climate-energy/climate-change-adaptation/adaptation-tools/project-catalog/peseta-projection-of-economic-impacts-of-climate Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis]
|
|-
| World summer temperatures rise by 5 °C
| [http://www.climateadaptation.eu/denmark/climate-change/ See "Air temperature changes in the 21st century"]
|
|-
| 2072
| US retirement age is set to 75
| [http://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/articles/2012/06/11/how-high-will-the-retirement-age-go Up to 70-80 years]
|
|-
| 2073
| Oceans do not rise one foot
| [http://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm More like 2 feet]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2074
| Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
| [http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-8848188.html UK to have 1 million centenarians by 2074]
|
|-
| Supertyphoons hit Japan
| [http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/09/08/national/super-typhoons-in-store-as-seas-warm/ Super typhoons in store as seas warm]
|
|-
| 2075
| US retirement age set to 69
| [http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2010/1112/Retirement-age-at-69-Deficit-plan-hits-Social-Security Retirement age at 69? Deficit plan hits Social Security]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2076
| Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
| [https://doclib.uhasselt.be/dspace/bitstream/1942/871/1/yitzhaki373.PDF Multiple Authorship in Biochemistry and Other Fields] (PDF)
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2078
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The same prediction was made for 2017 and 2022. Even when most prognosticators agree that something will happen, there can still be much disagreement about ''when'' it will happen.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2079
| US debt reaches 716% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
| [http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2011/feb/climate-change-causing-demise-lodgepole-pine-western-north-america Climate change causing demise of lodgepole pine in western North America]
|
|-
| Floods commonplace
| [http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090108101627.htm Floods To Become Commonplace By 2080]
|
|-
| Religion marginalized
| http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-11347073
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2080
| Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
| [http://crfb.org/sites/default/files/our_debt_problems_are_far_from_solved_updated_2.pdf Our debt problems are far from solved] (PDF)
|
|-
| UK population doubles
| [http://forums.canadiancontent.net/international-politics/69603-britains-population-hit-110-million.html Britain's population to hit 110 million]
|
|-
| 2082
| World population declines to one billion
| [http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html Population: The Elephant in the Room]
|
|-
| 2084
| Robot policemen introduced
| [http://www.thetechherald.com/articles/Robotic-cops-set-to-stamp-out-crime-by-2084 Robotic cops set to stamp out crime by 2084]
|
|-
| 2085
| US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
| [http://moneybob.com/2010/06/28/paul-krugman-throws-in-towel-says-were-headed-for-another-depression/ Paul Krugman Throws In Towel, Says We’re Headed For Another Depression]
|
|-
| 2088
| Japan becomes all-robot country
| [http://www.theretributioners.tv/erics-blog/2009/11/25/-japan-to-become-all-robot-country-by-2088.html Japan To Become All Robot Country By 2088]
|
|-
| 2089
| World halts fossil fuel use
| {{w|Fossil Fuels}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2090
| Global warming hits 7 °C
| [http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/models-warn-of-7c-dangerous-climate-change-by-2090.html Models warn of 7C dangerous climate change by 2090]. Climate change, especially global warming, is a [[:Category:Climate change|recurring theme]] in xkcd.
|
|-
| Global warming hits 4 °C
| Summarized [http://www.global-warming-forecasts.com/2090-climate-change-global-warming-2090.php here]. In reference to Andy Bowers, “Analysis: Scientists say global warming could affect California's drinking water supply,” NPR All Things Considered, June 22, 2001
|
|-
| rowspan="11"| 2100
| Global warming around 5-7 °C
| [http://grist.org/article/bau-fd/ Hadley Center study warns of ‘catastrophic’ 5-7°C warming by 2100 on current emissions path]
|
|-
| Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
| {{w|Future sea level}}
|
|-
| Joshua trees nearly extinct
| [http://news.discovery.com/earth/joshua-trees-climate-change-110325.htm Joshua Trees Nearly Wiped Out by 2100?]
|
|-
| Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
| [http://www.pnas.org/content/107/2/576 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100]
|
|-
| Germany tropical
| [http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/climate-change-predictions-a-tropical-germany-by-2100-a-463378.html Climate Change Predictions: A Tropical Germany by 2100?]
|
|-
| Emperor penguins extinct
| [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7851276.stm Emperor penguins face extinction]
|
|-
| Arctic permafrost thaws
| [http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/surface-permafrost-could/ Surface Permafrost Could Disappear by 2100]
|
|-
| Rising seas flood coastal cities
| [http://uanews.org/story/rising-seas-will-affect-major-us-coastal-cities-2100 Rising Seas Will Affect Major U.S. Coastal Cities by 2100]
|
|-
| Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
| [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/08/06/890970/-Massive-Loss-of-Rainforest-Species-by-2100-eKos-Earthship-Friday Massive Loss of Rainforest Species by 2100]
|
|-
| All coral reefs gone
| [http://planetsave.com/2010/10/15/coral-reefs-gone-by-2100/ Coral Reefs Gone by 2100?]
|
|-
| Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
| Each iteration of the Gillette line of safety razors has one more blade than the previous one. MadTV has also [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FAP8o5ZEo0 parodied] this. Over five years before MadTV did so, the Australian comedy group the D-Generation parodied the first two-bladed razor as the [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YleuLyCUx28 Gillette 3000] with 16 blades.
|
|-
| 2101
| WAR WAS BEGINNING
| References {{w|Zero Wing}}, a 1989 Japanese computer game set in 2101, famous for poorly translated English and the source for "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}".
|
|}
<references/>

==Transcript==

:<big>'''THE FUTURE'''</big>
:'''According to Google search results'''
:Events for each year determined by the first page of Google search results for the phrases:
:"By <year>" "In year"
:"By the year <year>" "In the year <year>"
:"Will * by the year <year>" "Will * in the year <year>"
:"In <year>, * will" "By <year>, * will"
:
:;2012
::World population reaches 7 billion
::Flying cars reach market
::Canada cuts greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels as per Kyoto
::Apocalypse occurs
:;2013
::National debt paid off through President Clinton's plans
::Microchipping of all Americans begins
::Homelessness ended in Massachusetts
::Health care reform law repealed
:;2014
::US leaves Afghanistan
::GNU/Linux becomes dominant OS
:;2015
::New Horizons reaches Pluto
::Health care law causes hyperinflation
::192 UN member nations achieve millennium development goals:
::*Extreme poverty and hunger eradicated
::*Universal primary education implemented
::*Women empowered, gender equality reached
::*Environmental stability ensured
:;2016
::Baby boomers begin turning 65
::Android takes 38% of the smartphone market
::Android takes 45% of the smartphone market
::Windows Phone overtakes iOS in smartphones
:;2017
::China completes unmanned Lunar sample-return mission
::Social Security stops running surplus
::US budget balanced
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
::Cosmetic surgery doubles
:;2018
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Jesus returns to Earth
:;2019
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Every baby has genes mapped at birth
:;2020
::Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
::Keyboards and mice become obsolete
::New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
:;2021
::US debt reaches 97% of GDP
::US unemployment falls to 2.8%
::Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
::Lake Mead evaporates
:;2022
::Kilimanjaro snow-free
::HTML 5 finished
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2023
::Jesus returns to Earth (again)
::US debt passes 100% of GDP
::All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
:;2024
::Atlantis begins to reappear
::Orangutans extinct in wild
::China lands men and women on the moon
::NASA sets up permanent moon base
::Female professionals pass males in pay
:;2025
::World population reaches 8 billion
::Two billion people face water shortages
::62 MPG cars introduced
::US power fades
:;2026
::Atlantis emerges completely
::Rock Bands die out
::US debt paid off
::Car accidents cease
::West coast falls into ocean
:;2027
::Japan introduces new fastest maglev train
::Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony established
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2028
::Tobacco outlawed
::40% of coral reefs gone
::US debt paid off
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2029
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
::Computers pass the Turing Test
::Aging reversed
::Wikipedia reaches 30 million articles
:;2030
::Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
::Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
::Arctic ice-free in summer
:;2031
::Computers controlled by thought
::Realtors replaced by technology
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2032
::"Big One" hits San Francisco
::US elects first married lesbian president
::Entire world converted to Christianity
:;2033
::Kilimanjaro ice disappears
::India becomes superpower
::Europe reaches Mars
:;2034
::US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
::US builds autonomous robot army
:;2035
::80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
::Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
::Arctic sea lane opens
:;2036
::80% of US has access to high-speed rail
::Asteroid Apophis hits/misses Earth
:;2037
::Arctic ice-free in September
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2038
::32-bit timestamps role over, causing Y2K-level chaos
::"Big One" hits California
:;2039
::US population hits 400 million
::Severe heat waves become commonplace
::Scientology becomes majority religion in US
:;2040
::Arctic summers ice-free
::Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
:;2041
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2042
:;2043
::World population passes 9 billion
:;2044
::Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
::Childhood obesity reaches 100%
:;2045
::Humans and machines merge
:;2046
::World's natural resources depleted
:;2047
::World ruled by banks and corporations
::Tobacco industry fails
::US begins using autonomous attack drones
:;2048
::Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
::Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
::Entire US population overweight
:;2049
::$1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
::Singularity occurs
::Fishing industry collapses
:;2050
::80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
::China controls space
::Sex with robots possible
::Cars banned from European cities
::One million species extinct from climate change
:;2051
::Atmosphere escapes into space
:;2052
::Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
:;2053
::US budget balanced
::Majority of Americans in prison
::Cars driven by dogs
:;2054
::Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
:;2055
::Atmospheric CO2 doubled
::Oil runs out
::Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
:;2056
::RFID-tagged driverless cars
::Robots given same rights as humans
:;2057
::150 Japanese settlers on Mars
::Colorado River runs dry
:;2058
::Smoking ends in New Zealand
:;2059
::Humans have domesticated robots
:;2060
::Human race lives in peace
::Extreme droughts across much of Earth
::Global temperature rise reaches 4°C
::Oil runs out again
:;2061
::Halley's comet returns
:;2062
::Uganda hosts World Cup
::The Jetsons
:;2063
::First human clones reach adulthood
::Population of Moon reaches 100,000
::Population of Mars reaches 10,000
::Spacecraft exceed speed of light
:;2064
::Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
:;2065
::Last coral reefs die out
::Chernobyl cleanup complete
:;2066
::Cyprus achieves its goal
:;2067
::Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
::Redheads go extinct
:;2068
::Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
::Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
::Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
:;2069
::Public masturbation legalized
:;2070
::World population peaks
::City-scale flooding disasters
::60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
:;2071
::Europe's temperatures rise by 3°C
::World summer temperatures rise by 5°C
:;2072
::US retirement age is set to 75
:;2073
::Oceans do not rise one foot
:;2074
::Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
::Supertyphoons hit Japan
:;2075
::US retirement age set to 69
:;2076
::Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2077
:;2078
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2079
::US debt reaches 716% of GDP
::Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
::Floods commonplace
::Religion marginalized
:;2080
::Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
::UK population doubles
:;2081
:;2082
::World population declines to one billion
:;2083
:;2084
::Robot policemen introduced
:;2085
::US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
:;2086
:;2087
:;2088
::Japan becomes all-robot country
:;2089
::World halts fossil fuel use
:;2090
::Global warming hits 7°C
::Global warming hits 4°C
:;2091
:;2092
:;2093
:;2094
:;2095
:;2096
:;2097
:;2098
:;2099
:;2100
::Global warming around 5-7°C
::Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
::Joshua trees nearly extinct
::Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
::Germany tropical
::Emperor penguins extinct
::Arctic permafrost thaws
::Rising seas flood coastal cities
::Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
::All coral reefs gone
::Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
:;2101
::WAR WAS BEGINNING

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Large drawings]]
[[Category:Timelines]]
[[Category:Google Search]]
[[Category:Climate change]]
[[Category:Singularity]]
[[Category:Renewable energy]]
[[Category:Smartphones]]
[[Category:Wikipedia]]

2435: Geothmetic Meandian

2021-03-17T06:26:58Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2435
| date = March 10, 2021
| title = Geothmetic Meandian
| image = geothmetic_meandian.png
| titletext = Pythagorean means are nice and all, but throwing the median in the pot is really what turns this into random forest statistics: applying every function you can think of, and then gradually dropping the ones that make the result worse.
}}

==Explanation==

There are a number of different ways to identify the "{{w|average}}" value of a series of values, the most common unweighted methods being the {{w|median}} (take the central value from the ordered list of values if there are an odd number - or the value half-way between the two that straddle the divide between two halves if there are an even number) and the {{w|arithmetic mean}} (add all the numbers up, divide by the number of numbers). The {{w|geometric mean}} is less well-known but works similarly to the arithmetic mean. The geometric mean of ''n'' positive numbers is the ''n''th root of the product of those numbers. If all of the numbers in a sequence are identical, then its arithmetic mean, geometric mean and median will be identical, since they would all be equal to the common value of the terms of the sequence. However, if the sequence is not constant, then {{w|Inequality_of_arithmetic_and_geometric_means#Geometric_interpretation|the arithmetic mean will be greater than the geometric mean}}, and the median may be different than either of those means.

The geometric mean, arithmetic mean and {{w|harmonic mean}} (not shown) are collectively known as the {{w|Pythagorean means}}, as specific modes of a greater and more generalized mean formula that extends arbitrarily to various other possible nuances of mean-value rationisations (cubic, etc.).

{{w|Outlier}}s and internal biases within the original sample can make boiling down a set of values into a single 'average' sometimes overly biased by flaws in the data, with your choice of which method to use perhaps resulting in a value that is misleading, exaggerating or suppressing the significance of any blips.

In this depiction, the three named methods of averaging are embedded within a single function that produces a sequence of three values - one output for each of the methods. Being a series of values, Randall suggests that this is ideally suited to being ''itself'' subjected to the comparative 'averaging' method. Not just once, but as many times as it takes to narrow down to a sequence of three values that are very close to one another.

It can be shown that the xkcd value of 2.089 for GMDN(1,1,2,3,5) is validated:

{|-border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
!
! Arithmetic mean
! Geometric mean
! Median
|-
! F1
| 2.4 || 1.974350486 || 2
|-
! F2
| 2.124783495 || 2.116192461 || 2
|-
! F3
| '''2.080325319''' || 2.079536819 || 2.116192461
|-
! F4
| 2.0920182 || 2.091948605 || '''2.080325319'''
|-
! F5
| '''2.088097374''' || 2.088090133 || 2.091948605
|-
! F6
| 2.089378704 || 2.089377914 || '''2.088097374'''
|-
! F7
| '''2.088951331''' || 2.088951244 || 2.089377914
|-
! F8
| 2.089093496 || 2.089093487 || '''2.088951331'''
|-
! F9
| '''2.089046105''' || 2.089046103 || 2.089093487
|-
! F10
| 2.089061898 || 2.089061898 || '''2.089046105'''
|}

The function GMDN in the comic is properly defined in the second row since F acts on a vector to produce another three vector, however GMDN in the last line is shown to produce a single real number rather than a vector and is thus missing a final operation of returning a single component. Each row in this table shows the set Fn(..) composed of the average, geomean and median computed on the previous row, with the sequence {1,1,2,3,5} as the initial F0. While GMDN is not differentiable, due to the median, this can be interpreted as somewhat similar to a heat equation which approaches equilibrium through averaging. Interestingly, the maximum value alternates between the average and the median (highlighted in bold in the table), while the minimum value alternates between the geomean and the median. This holds for many inputs thus providing the basis for a possible proof-by-induction of convergence on the range (see discussions).

The comment in the title text about suggests that this will save you the trouble of committing to the 'wrong' analysis as it gradually shaves down any 'outlier average' that is unduly affected by anomalies in the original inputs. It is a method without any danger of divergence of values, since all three averaging methods stay within the interval covering the input values (and two of them will stay strictly within that interval).

The title text may also be a sly reference to an actual mathematical theorem, namely that if one performs this procedure only using the arithmetic mean and the harmonic mean, the result will converge to the geometric mean. Randall suggests that the (non-Pythagorean) median, which does not have such good mathematical properties with relation to convergence, is, in fact, the secret sauce in his definition.

The question of being unsure of which mean to use is especially relevant for the arithmetic and harmonic means in following example.
* Cueball has some US Dollars and wishes to buy Euros. Suppose the bank will exchange US Dollars to Euros at a rate of €5 for $6 (about 0.83333€/$ or 1.20000$/€).
* Megan has some Euros and wishes to buy US Dollars. Suppose the bank will exchange Euros to US Dollars at a rate of $7 for €6 (about 0.85714€/$ or 1.16667$/€).
[[Cueball]] and [[Megan]] decide to complete the exchange between themselves in order to save the {{w|Bid-ask spread}} of the {{w|Exchange rate}} which is the cost the bank imposes on Cueball and Megan for its service as a {{w|Market maker}}.
* Cueball offers to split the difference by averaging the rates €5:$6 and €6:$7 yielding a rate of €71:$84 (about 0.84524€/$ or 1.18310$/€).
* Megan offers to split the difference by averaging the rates $6:€5 and $7:€6 yielding a rate of €60:$71 (about 0.84507€/$ or 1.18333$/€).
In one direction (€/$), Cueball is using the arithmetic mean but Megan is using the geometric mean while in the other direction ($/€), Megan is using the arithmetic mean but Megan is using the geometric mean. This creates two new exchange rates which are closer than the orginal rates, but the new rates are still different for each other. Megan and Cueball can then iterate this process and the rates will converge to the geometric mean of the original rates, namely:
* sqrt((5/6)*(6/7)) = sqrt(5/7) = 0.84515€/$ or
* sqrt((6/5)*(7/6)) = sqrt(7/5) = 1.18322$/€.

There does exist an {{w|arithmetic-geometric mean}}, which is defined identically to this except with the arithmetic and geometric means, and sees some use in calculus. In some ways it's also philosophically similar to the {{w|truncated mean}} (extremities of the value range, e.g. the highest and lowest 10%s, are ignored as not acceptable and not counted) or {{w|Winsorized mean}} (instead of ignored, the values are readjusted to be the chosen floor/ceiling values that they lie beyond, to still effectively be counted as "edge" conditions), only with a strange dilution-and-compromise method rather than one where quantities can be culled or neutered just for being unexpectedly different from most of the other data.

The input sequence of numbers (1, 1, 2, 3, 5) chosen by Randall is also the opening of the {{w|Fibonacci sequence}}. This may have been selected because the Fibonacci sequence also has a convergent property: the ratio of two adjacent numbers in the sequence approaches the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_ratio#Relationship_to_Fibonacci_sequence golden ratio] as the length of the sequence approaches infinity.

Here is a table of averages classified by the various methods referenced:

{|border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|+ averages using various methods
! Method
! Value
! Formula
|-
! Arithmetic
| 2.4 ||
|-
! Geometric
| 1.9743504858348
| <math>\left(\prod_{i=1}^n x_i\right)^\frac{1}{n} = \sqrt[n]{x_1 x_2 \cdots x_n}</math>
|-
! Median
| 2 ||
|-
! GMDN
| 2.089 ||
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

F(x1,x2,...xn)=({x1+x2+...+xn/n [bracket: arithmetic mean]},{nx,x2...xn, [bracket: geometric mean]} {x n+1/2 [bracket: median]})

Gmdn(x1,x2,...xn)={F(F(F(...F(x1,x2,...xn)...)))[bracket: geothmetic meandian]}

Gmdn(1,1,2,3,5) [equals about sign] 2.089

Caption: Stats tip: If you aren't sure whether to use the mean, median, or geometric mean, just calculate all three, then repeat until it converges

==Trivia==
Geothm means "counting earths" (From Ancient Greek γεω- (geō-), combining form of γῆ (gê, “earth”) and ἀριθμός arithmos, 'counting'). Geothmetic means "art of Geothming" based on the etymology of Arithmetic (from Ancient Greek ἀριθμητική (τέχνη) (arithmētikḗ (tékhnē), “(art of) counting”). This is an exciting new terminology that is eminently suitable for modern cosmology & high energy physics - particularly when doing math on the multiverse. However, it is unlikely this etymology is related to the term "geothmetic meandian" as coined by Randall, as it can be more simply explained as a portmanteau of the three averages in its construction: '''geo'''metric mean, ari'''thmetic mean''', and me'''dian'''.

The following python code (inefficiently) implements the above algorithm:

<pre>
from functools import reduce

def f(*args):
args = sorted(args)
mean = sum(args) / len(args)
gmean = reduce(lambda x, y: x * y, args) ** (1 / len(args))
if len(args) % 2:
median = args[len(args) // 2]
else:
median = (args[len(args) // 2] + args[len(args) // 2 - 1]) / 2
return mean, gmean, median

max_iterations = 10
l = [1, 1, 2, 3, 5]
for iterations in range(max_iterations):
fst, *rest = l
if all((abs(r - fst) < 0.00000001 for r in rest)):
break
l = f(*l)
print(l[0], iterations)
</pre>
Here is a slightly more efficient version of the python code:

<pre>
from scipy.stats.mstats import gmean
import numpy as np

def get_centers(a,tol=0.00001):
a = np.array(a)
result = False
if len(a)==3:
if np.abs(a[0]-a[1])<=tol and np.abs(a[0]-a[2])<=tol and np.abs(a[2]-a[1])<=tol:
result=True
print([np.mean(a),np.median(a),gmean(a)])
if result:
return a[0]
return get_centers([np.mean(a),np.median(a),gmean(a)])

</pre>

And here is an implementation of the Gmdn function in R:

Gmdn <- function (..., threshold = 1E-6) {
# Function F(x) as defined in comic
f <- function (x) {
n <- length(x)
return(c(mean(x), prod(x)^(1/n), median(x)))
}
# Extract input vector from ... argument
x <- c(...)
# Iterate until the standard deviation of f(x) reaches a threshold
while (sd(x) > threshold) x <- f(x)
# Return the mean of the final triplet
return(mean(x))
}

{{comic discussion}}


[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Portmanteau]]

Talk:2422: Vaccine Ordering

2021-02-09T00:14:49Z

Troy0:

For those that read XKCD here first - yes, the original comic really is that low quality. I suspect Randall's going to replace it with a cleaner one at some point. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.237.134|108.162.237.134]] 23:10, 8 February 2021 (UTC)
:Unless the low quality is intentional, some way-over-my-head joke about vaccines and mRNA, maybe? -- or the low-quality of the image as an analogy for the low-quality of the rhymes? {{unsigned ip|172.69.234.138}}

Looks like he's uploaded a better version now. I don't know how to replace the image, though. [[User:Argis13|Argis13]] ([[User talk:Argis13|talk]]) 23:40, 8 February 2021 (UTC)
:It's still low quality at xkcd.com. [[User:Troy0|Troy0]] ([[User talk:Troy0|talk]]) 00:14, 9 February 2021 (UTC)

2402: Into My Veins

2020-12-31T02:54:48Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2402
| date = December 23, 2020
| title = Into My Veins
| image = into_my_veins.png
| titletext = "Okay, for the last time, the shot is free, so we can't--" "Shut up and take my money!"
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by PHILIP J. FRY. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic references both the {{w|COVID-19 vaccine}} and a common {{w|Internet meme|meme}}.

The {{w|COVID-19 Pandemic}} has been one of the most consequential and broadly unpleasant events in living memory. As of the publication of this strip, it is estimated to have caused over 1.5 million deaths worldwide, with over 300,000 deaths in the United States, with many more serious cases, often with lasting impacts. Even for those who have been spared infection, measures to slow the spread of the virus have been highly impactful, and have been ongoing for nearly a year.

In consequence of all of this, many people (including, presumably, [[Randall]]) are excited for the vaccine (which will hopefully end the pandemic). This comic shows [[Cueball]] clearly thrilled to receive the vaccine. "Inject this directly into my veins," is meme based on the line (from ''{{w|The Simpsons}}''). In the episode "{{W|A Star Is Burns}}", an alcoholic character wins a lifetime supply of beer, and replies "just hook it to my veins". The meme is typically applied to things which are not injected at all (such as a form of media or entertainment) to express exaggerated enthusiasm. When Cueball applies the meme to the COVID-19 vaccine, it causes some confusion, because the vaccine ''is'' delivered by injection, but not {{w|Intravenous therapy|directly into a vein}}. The medical staff delivering the vaccine have apparently heard this or similar lines frequently, and appear to take it literally, repeatedly explaining that it's not possible.

The title text references another such meme, [https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/shut-up-and-take-my-money "Shut up and take my money,"] which derives from the 2010 "{{w|Attack of the Killer App}}" episode of ''{{w|Futurama}}''. Similar to the first meme, this one expresses extreme and immediate desire for something, with the implication that the speaker is not only willing, but eager to pay whatever it costs, and is too excited to wait for a sales pitch or for any warnings or disclaimers. The COVID-19 vaccine is being provided free of charge to Cueball, so taking money is entirely unnecessary (and possibly illegal). Once again, this is a source of potential confusion because, under the American healthcare system, many people likely will have to pay at least part of the cost of a vaccination. The workers administering it could easily confuse the meme for a genuine request.

==Transcript==

:Cueball: Yesssss
:Cueball: Inject this directly into my veins

:[Beat panel. Ponytail looks down at a clipboard.]

:[Zoom out to reveal that Cueball is standing by a stool, with Ponytail in front of him with a clipboard and syringe and Hairy behind him with a box of bandages and a first-aid kit.]

:Ponytail: Ok, but the vaccine is intramuscular...
:Hairy: Why do people keep ''saying'' that?
:Cueball: Sorry, sorry.
:Cueball: Just excited.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:COVID-19]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]

2403: Wrapping Paper

2020-12-31T02:53:06Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2403
| date = December 25, 2020
| title = Wrapping Paper
| image = wrapping_paper.png
| titletext = Wow, rude of you to regift literally every gift that you or anyone else has ever received.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by THE ONLY THING NOT IN THE PRESENT. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic was published on Christmas Day, 2020, a day where people who celebrate Christmas traditionally will open their presents (in many countries).

In this comic, [[Megan]] is unwrapping a present while [[Cueball]] looks on (perhaps it's the present he gave her). The premise is that the definition of a present is not what's inside the box, but what's inside the region of space that the blank side of the wrapping paper faces. So if you wrap the box with the printed side towards the box, everything in the universe outside the box is the gift. Apparently the box contains a pair of headphones, which would be a nice present, but not nearly as impressive as nearly ''everything'' in the universe. And since the rest of the universe contains millions of headphones, many of which are probably nicer than the ones in this box, she still gets headphones as well.

The title text extends this to {{w|Regift|regifting}}, which is the practice of using a received present (usually unwanted and hopefully unused) as a present for someone else. This practice is often considered to be impolite, because it's assumed to simultaneously show lack of appreciate of a gift you've received (because you want to get rid of it), and an unwillingness to spend much time, effort or money on a gift for someone else. But if you wrap an ordinary present inside out, all the gifts you've ever received in the past are part of the entire universe except for that present, so you're actually doing an enormous amount of regifting ''including stuff belonging to other people'', which is as rude as regifting can get.

{{w|Douglas Adams}}' novel ''{{w|So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish}}'', the fourth in the {{w|The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy}} series, contains a similar joke. A man living in an inside-out room in a desert treats the rest of Earth as an insane asylum, with himself living outside of it as the only sane man.

This may also refer to a math joke about how to create the smallest fence around a group of animals. Rather than finding the obvious fence, a mathematician would build a small, circular fence around themselves and declare the region on the other side of the fence, "inside". Thusly enclosing all the animals!

The mention of headphones might be a reference to the {{w|AirPods Max}}, which were released by Apple on December 9, just 16 days before this comic, and stirred much debate for their US$549 price tag.

==Transcript==
:[Cueball is standing at the left of a decorated Christmas tree, with present boxes underneath it. The presents are wrapped with the undecorated side of the wrapping paper facing out. Megan is kneeling at the right side, unwrapping a gift, revealing stripes on the inside.]

:Megan: Cool! I got the entire universe and every object within it except for a pair of headphones!

:[Caption below the panel]:
:Presents get a lot more impressive if you turn the wrapping paper inside out

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Christmas]]
[[Category: Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category: Comics featuring Megan]]

2405: Flash Gatsby

2020-12-31T02:51:49Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2405
| date = December 31, 2020
| title = Flash Gatsby
| image = flash_gatsby.png
| titletext = Protip: At midnight your excuse for not having read The Great Gatsby can switch from "I'm worried about violating copyright" to "I think my copy requires Flash."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a green light. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
''{{w|The Great Gatsby}}'' is a classic novel written by {{w|F. Scott Fitzgerald}} in 1925.
Copyright law in the United States of America, where ''The Great Gatsby'' was first published, was retroactively extended several times in the 1990s and early 2000s, causing the copyright on ''The Great Gatsby'' to extend [https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/595567/why-the-great-gatsby-isnt-public-domain until the end of 2020]. In 2021, it finally will enter the public domain so that it will become legal to make a copy without violating copyright law.

{{w|Adobe Flash}}, formerly known as Shockwave Flash, is a web plugin that was commonly used by many websites in the late 1990s and 2000s. However, it was repeatedly exploited by hackers, incurring heavy costs on {{w|Adobe Inc.|Adobe}} as they tried to update Flash against these attacks. Newer technologies are now able to provide comparable features with less risk, so support for Flash is being phased out by most web browsers. Adobe is officially discontinuing Flash at the end of 2020. Therefore, a Flash version of ''The Great Gatsby'' will become legal at the same moment that everyone should stop using it.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

{{comic discussion}}

Talk:2383: Electoral Precedent 2020

2020-11-10T01:19:15Z

Troy0:

Can anyone identify the faded background text in the 2016 panel?

Is there some shadow text behind the main text in the 2016 square? I can barely make it out.
It looks like "No nominee whose first name contains a "k" has lost", which would be the same from the 1122 comic.
[[User:ChunyangD|ChunyangD]] ([[User talk:ChunyangD|talk]]) 00:54, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

It's the alternative text from the 2016 one: "No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost." [[Special:Contributions/172.69.235.143|172.69.235.143]] 00:58, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

I'm quite sure that Obama did in fact have a campaign website in 2008 when he was a challenger. See http://www.4president.us/websites/2008/barackobama2008website.htm [[User:Bobjr|Bobjr]] ([[User talk:Bobjr|talk]]) 01:15, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

How much do we want the explanation for this one to repeat what is in that of 1122?--[[User:Troy0|Troy0]] ([[User talk:Troy0|talk]]) 01:19, 10 November 2020 (UTC)

2370: Prediction

2020-10-09T22:38:37Z

Troy0:

{{comic
| number = 2370
| date = October 9, 2020
| title = Prediction
| image = prediction.png
| titletext = You'd think it'd be easy to just bet money against these people, but you have to consider the probability of them paying up.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic is about misunderstanding probability. Sometimes people will incorrectly assume that if one event is likelier than another to occur, then that event WILL occur, or that if one names two or more outcomes, they are equally likely to occur when in fact they might have different probabilities.

Saying that an event is more likely to happen than not to happen is not the same as saying that the event is definitely going to happen. At the same time, even if the event not happening is possible, it's not 50/50 odds that the event will happen. People have difficulties understanding statements like "event A has a 70% probability to happen" and internally understanding it to be one of the two misconceptions above.

Some don't like probability statements because they are not definite and therefore cannot be proven wrong. For example, if a probability statement says "event A has a 1% probability to happen" and event A actually happens, that does not prove the statement wrong, because the statement admits of the possibility of event A happening.

For example, FiveThirtyEight famously gave Trump a higher odds of winning the 2016 U.S. presidential election than most other models did just before the election ([https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ 28.6%]). However, many readers at the time interpreted that as "Trump is definitely going to lose", and after he won that election, blasted FiveThirtyEight for getting its prediction "wrong". However, that interpretation is mistaken. 28.6% means Trump had a real chance at winning, between throwing a coin twice and both time landing on heads (1/4) and throwing a d6 and getting a 1 or 2 (1/3), both of which events are intuitively possible.

The correct interpretation of a probability statement like "event A has a 70% probability to happen" is that in the long run, of those events you give 70% probabilities to, about 70% of them end up happening. If, for example, 99% of those events ended up happening, the 70% probabilities you gave those events may likely be wrong (you should've given probabilities closer to 1), even though you "called" almost all events correctly (in the sense that 70% means the events are more likely to happen than not to happen, and almost all of them happened). Looking back at your predictions and seeing if the results are what you should expect is called {{w|Calibration (statistics)|calibration}} ([https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/ example]).

In the last panel, it is shown that [[Cueball]] anticipated this lack of understanding, so he plays pre-recorded audio of his prediction for the conversation.

The title text says that these people are gullible enough to the point that they would accept a disadvantageous bet. However, it also says that they might not actually go through with paying the bet if they lose.

At the time of writing, the 2020 United States presidential and congressional elections were less than a month away. This is a time when polls showing one or the other candidate leading are common, and may be misinterpreted to mean that the candidate is certain to win. Additionally, after the 2016 election saw Donald Trump, the trailing candidate in the polls, winning, many also interpreted this to mean that the polls were useless and/or wrong. Cueball has previously shown an interest in U.S. election polling, for example in [[500: Election]].

==Transcript==
Cueball: Event A is more likely than Event B.

[White Hat touches chin thoughtfully]

White Hat: So you're saying that Event A will happen.

Cueball: No, Event B could also happen.

White Hat: So you're saying it's 50/50.

Cueball: No, it's definitely not 50/50.

[Cueball produces a phone]

White Hat: Sounds like you have no idea what will happen.

Cueball: And yet I knew exactly how this conversation would go. Here, listen:

<nowiki>*Click*</nowiki>

Phone: ''Then you'll say, "So it's 50/50"''

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Math]]

2370: Prediction

2020-10-09T22:26:34Z

Troy0:

{{comic
| number = 2370
| date = October 9, 2020
| title = Prediction
| image = prediction.png
| titletext = You'd think it'd be easy to just bet money against these people, but you have to consider the probability of them paying up.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic is about misunderstanding probability. Sometimes people will incorrectly assume that if one event is likelier than another to occur, then that event WILL occur, or that if one names two or more outcomes, they are equally likely to occur when in fact they might have different probabilities.

Saying that an event is more likely to happen than not to happen is not the same as saying that the event is definitely going to happen. At the same time, even if the event not happening is possible, it's not 50/50 odds that the event will happen. People have difficulties understanding statements like "event A has a 70% probability to happen" and internally understanding it to be one of the two misconceptions above.

Some don't like probability statements because they are not definite and therefore cannot be proven wrong. For example, if a probability statement says "event A has a 1% probability to happen" and event A actually happens, that does not prove the statement wrong, because the statement admits of the possibility of event A happening.

For example, FiveThirtyEight famously gave Trump a higher odds of winning the 2016 U.S. presidential election than most other models did just before the election ([https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ 28.6%]). However, many readers at the time interpreted that as "Trump is definitely going to lose", and after he won that election, blasted FiveThirtyEight for getting its prediction "wrong". However, that interpretation is mistaken. 28.6% means Trump had a real chance at winning, between throwing a coin twice and both time landing on heads (1/4) and throwing a d6 and getting a 1 or 2 (1/3), both of which events are intuitively possible.

In the last panel, it is shown that [[Cueball]] anticipated this lack of understanding, so he plays pre-recorded audio of his prediction for the conversation.

The title text says that these people are gullible enough to the point that they would accept a disadvantageous bet. However, it also says that they might not actually go through with paying the bet if they lose.

At the time of writing, the 2020 United States presidential and congressional elections were less than a month away. This is a time when polls showing one or the other candidate leading are common, and may be misinterpreted to mean that the candidate is certain to win. Additionally, after the 2016 election saw Donald Trump, the trailing candidate in the polls, winning, many also interpreted this to mean that the polls were useless and/or wrong. Cueball has previously shown an interest in U.S. election polling, for example in [[500: Election]].

==Transcript==
Cueball: Event A is more likely than Event B.

[White Hat touches chin thoughtfully]

White Hat: So you're saying that Event A will happen.

Cueball: No, Event B could also happen.

White Hat: So you're saying it's 50/50.

Cueball: No, it's definitely not 50/50.

[Cueball produces a phone]

White Hat: Sounds like you have no idea what will happen.

Cueball: And yet I knew exactly how this conversation would go. Here, listen:

<nowiki>*Click*</nowiki>

Phone: ''Then you'll say, "So it's 50/50"''

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Math]]

2370: Prediction

2020-10-09T22:26:10Z

Troy0:

{{comic
| number = 2370
| date = October 9, 2020
| title = Prediction
| image = prediction.png
| titletext = You'd think it'd be easy to just bet money against these people, but you have to consider the probability of them paying up.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic is about misunderstanding probability. Sometimes people will incorrectly assume that if one event is likelier than another to occur, then that event WILL occur, or that if one names two or more outcomes, they are equally likely to occur when in fact they might have different probabilities.

Saying that an event is more likely to happen than not to happen is not the same as saying that the event is definitely going to happen. At the same time, even if the event not happening is possible, it's not 50/50 odds that the event will happen. People have difficulties understanding statements like "event A has a 70% probability to happen" and internally understanding it to be one of the two misconceptions above.

Some don't like probability statements because they are not definite and therefore cannot be proven wrong. For example, if a probability statement says "event A has a 1% probability to happen" and event A actually happens, that does not prove the statement wrong, because the statement admits of the possibility of event A happening.

For example, FiveThirtyEight famously gave Trump a higher odds of winning the 2016 U.S. presidential election than most other models did just before the election ([28.6% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/]). However, many readers at the time interpreted that as "Trump is definitely going to lose", and after he won that election, blasted FiveThirtyEight for getting its prediction "wrong". However, that interpretation is mistaken. 28.6% means Trump had a real chance at winning, between throwing a coin twice and both time landing on heads (1/4) and throwing a d6 and getting a 1 or 2 (1/3), both of which events are intuitively possible.

In the last panel, it is shown that [[Cueball]] anticipated this lack of understanding, so he plays pre-recorded audio of his prediction for the conversation.

The title text says that these people are gullible enough to the point that they would accept a disadvantageous bet. However, it also says that they might not actually go through with paying the bet if they lose.

At the time of writing, the 2020 United States presidential and congressional elections were less than a month away. This is a time when polls showing one or the other candidate leading are common, and may be misinterpreted to mean that the candidate is certain to win. Additionally, after the 2016 election saw Donald Trump, the trailing candidate in the polls, winning, many also interpreted this to mean that the polls were useless and/or wrong. Cueball has previously shown an interest in U.S. election polling, for example in [[500: Election]].

==Transcript==
Cueball: Event A is more likely than Event B.

[White Hat touches chin thoughtfully]

White Hat: So you're saying that Event A will happen.

Cueball: No, Event B could also happen.

White Hat: So you're saying it's 50/50.

Cueball: No, it's definitely not 50/50.

[Cueball produces a phone]

White Hat: Sounds like you have no idea what will happen.

Cueball: And yet I knew exactly how this conversation would go. Here, listen:

<nowiki>*Click*</nowiki>

Phone: ''Then you'll say, "So it's 50/50"''

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Math]]

2370: Prediction

2020-10-09T22:17:55Z

Troy0:

2225: Voting Referendum

2019-11-06T21:15:37Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Eliminated duplicate list

{{comic
| number = 2225
| date = November 6, 2019
| title = Voting Referendum
| image = voting_referendum.png
| titletext = The weirdest quirk of the Borda count is that Jean-Charles de Borda automatically gets one point; luckily this has no consequences except in cases of extremely low turnout.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BORAD OF BORDA-ELECTED CANDIDATES. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
The day before this comic's publication was an election day throughout the USA, primarily for local and state issues (normal elections for federal offices of the President, Senate, and House of Representatives are always in even years), so the topic of today's comic highlights many different methods for conducting elections and counting votes. While elections are primarily used to allow voters to select from candidates for public offices, election ballots also frequently present questions for voters to directly voice their support or opposition to some change in a process or law - commonly called a {{w|Referendum|referendum}}. The comic depicts an election ballot referendum for voters to select the method to be used in future elections.

The main part of this comic is a ballot on the subject of voting methods—that is, of ways to choose one or more winning options from a set of options at an election.

The first three options are shown with radio buttons, a standard ccomputer convention for a choice where the user may make only one selection, and they are indeed methods where a voter selects one and only one option.

The first listed, '''first-past-the-post''', is a common method used in the USA, UK, and Canada where an election will select only one winner. Each voter selects one preferred candidate, and the one with the most votes wins, even if that is a small fraction of the total (the winner of the UK Parliamentary seat for Belfast South in 2015 did not even receive a quarter of the vote).

The second listed, the '''top-two primary,''' is the system used in California for USA House of Representatives elections. Candidates from all parties and from no party all appear on one ballot at the primary (unlike most states, where each party’s primary is a separate race, winners then proceeding to the first-past-the-post general election). The two highest finishers then contest the general election, even if both are from the same party, and even if one had an absolute majority in the primary. (This is because the Constitution requires that representatives be elected on the same day, and having a seat decided in advance via the primary would violate this.)

The third, the '''Louisiana primary''', is more like the traditional runoff system, in that the second part of the election is not held if one candidate has a clear majority (one vote more than the combined total of all other candidates). In this case, though, the primary is held on the national Election Day, and any needed runoffs are held on a later date. This also resembles the system used in France, where the runoff is known as the "deuxième tour" (the "premier tour" being the main election).

The next option is '''cumulative voting''', in which each voter gets as many votes as there are seats to be filled, and may distribute them as he chooses among one or more candidates. This system was long used to select the Illinois House of Representatives; its most common use today is in choosing corporate boards of directors. A computer would typically represent this kind of choice with multiple columns of radio buttons (one per vote), each candidate represented by one row (as we see here).

The next two methods involve voting yes or no on each option presented, which the comic represents with the traditional metaphor of a checkbox.

'''Approval voting''' is the single-winner version of this system, in which the most-approved-of candidate is the winner. This system is not in widespread use, but was adopted in 2018 in Fargo, ND, USA.

Under '''multiple non-transferable vote,''' a voter may vote for up to ''k'' candidates (in a ''k''-winner election), and the ''k'' highest vote-getters win. This system resembles cumulative voting, but without the ability to concentrate votes on candidates. Its use in the USA has been largely outlawed because it allows a cohesive majority of voters to claim all of the seats and thus to deny the minority any representation whatsoever.

The next three methods involve allowing voters to rank their preferred alternatives from best to worst, represented by numeric entry fields.

The simplest of these, '''instant runoff''' voting, is increasingly popular for single-winner elections. The conventional runoff (in which the top candidates run again if there is no clear majority), as described above, requires holding a second election, printing new ballots, renting the voting spaces, and otherwise incurring additional cost. Under the instant-runoff system, voters indicate their lower preferences on the same ballot as their main vote, and the runoff election is "held" by using this data.

The '''single transferable vote''' system extends this concept to multiple-winner elections. A candidate wins by reaching a vote total of (''v''/(''k''+1))+1, or just enough to prevent there from being too many winners. Excess votes for a winner are then distributed to those voters’ next choices, as are those cast for the bottom candidates eliminated when no additional winners can otherwise be determined. The Republic of Ireland elects its lower house, the Dáil, by this system.

Under the '''Borda count''' system, each ballot is counted as 1 points for the last choice, 2 for next-to-last, and so on up to ''n'' for the first choice among ''n'' candidates. The highest point-earner(s) win)s(. This system may also be calculated as 1 point for first choice, 2 for second, etc., with the lowest total winning; this variant, called the "cross-country vote" (due to its resemblance to the scoring system of the sport of cross-country running), is used by the National Collegiate Athletic Association’s various selection committee as one step in choosing championship tournament fields.

Finally, '''range voting''' allows a voter to give any value in a range (say 0 to 10) to each candidate, with the highest total winning. (If the range contains only two values, this reduces to the approval system.) Our imaginary voter is asked to choose the point on the range by way of a slider, the classic computer metaphor for it.

The punchline is that the whole referendum is a chicken-and-egg problem: in order to accomplish the purpose of a referendum, one needs to know how the votes will be translated into a result, but in this case, determining that rule is the purpose of the referendum....

The alt text refers to the inventor of the Borda count (for whom it is named), implying that the use of the system includes a ballot in which he gets one vote. This vote would be quickly drowned out by any sensible quantity of actual votes. This also humorously suggests that if no one were to vote at all, Borda would win by default.

==Transcript==

:[Single panel depicting a ballot item for selecting a voting system]
:Which voting system should we use?

:* (empty radio button) First past the post
:* (empty radio button) Top-two primary
:* (filled radio button) Louisiana primary
:* (two filled, one empty radio button) Cumulative voting
:* (checked box) Approval voting
:* (checked box) Multiple non-transferrable vote
:* (box marked "3") Instant runoff voting
:* (box marked "1") Single transferrable vote
:* (box marked "2") Borda count
:* (slider with value slightly below half) Range voting

:Caption below panel: The referendum went well, but we can't figure out how to count the ballots.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Elections]]

2037: Supreme Court Bracket

2018-08-24T08:00:29Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Added Wikipedia links to the cases.

{{comic
| number = 2037
| date = August 24, 2018
| title = Supreme Court Bracket
| image = supreme_court_bracket.png
| titletext = My bracket was busted in the first round; I had Massachusetts v. Connecticut in the final, probably in a case over who gets to annex Rhode Island.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a SUPREME COURT REFEREE - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

The {{w|Supreme Court of the United States}} is the highest federal court of the United States. A {{w|Bracket (tournament)|tournament bracket}} is a tree diagram that represents the series of games played during a knockout tournament. [[Randall]] suggests that the winners of the 16 listed court cases will file against each other and then again until the final winner is selected.

Court cases are typically titled as plaintiff versus defendant. Randall is spoofing this idea by imagining famous United States Supreme Court cases as though they were games in the first round of a single-elimination tournament, similar to college basketball's March Madness, complete with a ranking bracket. "Sweet 16" in the context of a tournament refers to the stage in a tournament where 16 competitors remain. This comic's concept is thus a word play on "court" (court of law / basketball court).

The cases are, with the winners in bold:

*{{w|Marbury v. Madison|Marbury v. '''Madison'''}}
(declared a provision of the Judiciary Act unconstitutional; first time that U.S. Supreme Court overturned a law)

*{{w|McCulloch v. Maryland|'''McCulloch''' v. Maryland}}
(prohibited states from taxing the federal government)

*{{w|Gibbons v. Ogden|'''Gibbons''' v. Ogden}}
(dealt with what are now called antitrust issues)

*{{w|Near v. Minnesota|'''Near''' v. Minnesota}}
(found that prior restraints on publication violate freedom of the press as protected under the First Amendment)

*{{w|NLRB v. Jones & Laughlin Steel Corp.|'''NLRB''' v. Jones & Laughlin}}
(declared that the National Labor Relations Act of 1935 was constitutional)

*{{w|Brown v. Board of Education|'''Brown''' v. Board of Education}}
(declared that racially segregated schools were inherently unequal and ordered them integrated)

*{{w|Gideon v. Wainwright|'''Gideon''' v. Wainwright}}
(gave defendants unable to afford lawyers the right to have the government provide them with defense lawyers)

*{{w|Griswold v. Connecticut|'''Griswold''' v. Connecticut}}
(right to birth control)

*{{w|Miranda v. Arizona|'''Miranda''' v. Arizona}}
(required police to inform suspects of their rights)

*{{w|Loving v. Virginia|'''Loving''' v. Virginia}}
(overturned a ban on interracial marriage)

*{{w|Roe v. Wade|'''Roe''' v. Wade}}
(right to abortion)

*{{w|United States v. Nixon|'''United States''' v. Nixon}}
(ordered president Nixon to turn over Watergate tapes)

*{{w|Bush v. Gore|'''Bush''' v. Gore}}
(disputed 2000 Presidential election)

*{{w|Lawrence v. Texas|'''Lawrence''' v. Texas}}
(invalidated sodomy laws)

*{{w|Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency|'''Massachusetts''' v. EPA}}
(decided that the state of Massachusetts has standing to sue the EPA for not doing enough against global warming)

*{{w|Obergefell v. Hodges|'''Obergefell''' v. Hodges}}
(right of homosexuals to marry a person of their own gender)

The title text refers to a practice of filling out a March Madness bracket, predicting a winner for each game up to the championship. A bracket is "busted" when the result of a game is not as predicted; because future matchups depend on previous results, the whole bracket is worthless at that point. Randall "had Massachusetts v. Connecticut in the final", predicting both parties would win all previous rounds and advance to the final game/case. Because Connecticut lost its first-round case to Griswold, his bracket is busted in the first round.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Left side:]
:Marbury - Madison
:McCulloch - Maryland
:Gibbons - Ogden
:Near - Minnesota
:NLRB - Jones & Laughlin
:Brown - Board of Education
:Gideon - Wainwright
:Griswold - Connecticut

:[Right side:]
:Miranda - Arizona
:Loving - Virginia
:Roe - Wade
:United States - Nixon
:Bush - Gore
:Lawrence - Texas
:Massachusetts - Environmental Protection Agency
:Obergefell - Hodges

:[Caption below the frame:]
:Now that we've finished the round of 32, the Supreme court will be moving on to the Sweet 16.

{{comic discussion}}

Talk:2037: Supreme Court Bracket

2018-08-24T07:53:00Z

Troy0:

Came here for insight, only to discover this is tomorrow's comic, I'm viewing Friday's comic on Thursday after midnight. D'oh! Damn, seeing a comic early and I can't provide or contribute to the explanation, LOL! I realize the bracket and "Sweet 16" are sports things, I think football and/or basketball, and I spotted the famous name Roe vs. Wade, so seems like court cases, but that's it. Looking forward to people explaining the smaller jokes (I spotted "Loving" and "Virginia", and I feel like I recall their license plates say "Virginia Is For Lovers" I think, I expect something there). [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 04:58, 24 August 2018 (UTC)
:Protip: Thursday after midnight is Friday! Nonetheless this comic was released at 0:00 EDT meaning it was still Thursday at time zones westwards. --[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 07:03, 24 August 2018 (UTC)

Errm. You can go back to the previous comic if you hit the [<Prev] button just above the current one. {{unsigned ip|141.101.107.36}}

I agree that this is a sports reference, but can someone also include some sort of note about the title? I think that the "Supreme COURT" is referring to a basketball COURT, connected to how brackets like this are used in basketball like with March Madness. [[User:B. A. Beder|B. A. Beder]] ([[User talk:B. A. Beder|talk]]) 05:50, 24 August 2018 (UTC)

Well, how would the tournament turn out? We know who won the cases, so who's the king of the US legal system? --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.90.66|162.158.90.66]] 06:41, 24 August 2018 (UTC)

Moral of the story: If you are the respondent in a landmark case, you might as well give up. --[[User:Troy0|Troy0]] ([[User talk:Troy0|talk]]) 07:53, 24 August 2018 (UTC)

2037: Supreme Court Bracket

2018-08-24T07:51:34Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Explanation for the title text.

{{comic
| number = 2037
| date = August 24, 2018
| title = Supreme Court Bracket
| image = supreme_court_bracket.png
| titletext = My bracket was busted in the first round; I had Massachusetts v. Connecticut in the final, probably in a case over who gets to annex Rhode Island.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a SUPREME COURT REFEREE - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

The {{w|Supreme Court of the United States}} is the highest federal court of the United States. A {{w|Bracket (tournament)|tournament bracket}} is a tree diagram that represents the series of games played during a knockout tournament. [[Randall]] suggests that the winners of the 16 listed court cases will file against each other and then again until the final winner is selected.

Court cases are typically titled as plaintiff versus defendant. Randall is spoofing this idea by imagining famous United States Supreme Court cases as though they were games in the first round of a single-elimination tournament, similar to college basketball's March Madness, complete with a ranking bracket. "Sweet 16" in the context of a tournament refers to the stage in a tournament where 16 competitors remain. This comic's concept is thus a word play on "court" (court of law / basketball court).

The cases are, with the winners in bold:

*Marbury v. '''Madison'''
(declared a provision of the Judiciary Act unconstitutional; first time that U.S. Supreme Court overturned a law)

*'''McCulloch''' v. Maryland
(prohibited states from taxing the federal government)

*'''Gibbons''' v. Ogden
(dealt with what are now called antitrust issues)

*'''Near''' v. Minnesota
(found that prior restraints on publication violate freedom of the press as protected under the First Amendment)

*'''NLRB''' v. Jones & Laughlin
(declared that the National Labor Relations Act of 1935 was constitutional)

*'''Brown''' v. Board of Education
(declared that racially segregated schools were inherently unequal and ordered them integrated)

*'''Gideon''' v. Wainwright
(gave defendants unable to afford lawyers the right to have the government provide them with defense lawyers)

*'''Griswold''' v. Connecticut
(right to birth control)

*'''Miranda''' v. Arizona
(required police to inform suspects of their rights)

*'''Loving''' v. Virginia
(overturned a ban on interracial marriage)

*'''Roe''' v. Wade
(right to abortion)

*'''United States''' v. Nixon
(ordered president Nixon to turn over Watergate tapes)

*'''Bush''' v. Gore
(disputed 2000 Presidential election)

*'''Lawrence''' v. Texas
(invalidated sodomy laws)

*'''Massachusetts''' v. Environmental Protection Agency
(decided that the state of Massachusetts has standing to sue the EPA for not doing enough against global warming)

*'''Obergefell''' v. Hodges
(right of homosexuals to marry a person of their own gender)

The title text refers to a practice of filling out a March Madness bracket, predicting a winner for each game up to the championship. A bracket is "busted" when the result of a game is not as predicted; because future matchups depend on previous results, the whole bracket is worthless at that point. Randall "had Massachusetts v. Connecticut in the final", predicting both parties would win all previous rounds and advance to the final game/case. Because Connecticut lost its first-round case to Griswold, his bracket is busted in the first round.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Left side:]
:Marbury - Madison
:McCulloch - Maryland
:Gibbons - Ogden
:Near - Minnesota
:NLRB - Jones & Laughlin
:Brown - Board of Education
:Gideon - Wainwright
:Griswold - Connecticut

:[Right side:]
:Miranda - Arizona
:Loving - Virginia
:Roe - Wade
:United States - Nixon
:Bush - Gore
:Lawrence - Texas
:Massachusetts - Environmental Protection Agency
:Obergefell - Hodges

:[Caption below the frame:]
:Now that we've finished the round of 32, the Supreme court will be moving on to the Sweet 16.

{{comic discussion}}

2037: Supreme Court Bracket

2018-08-24T07:44:58Z

Troy0: /* Explanation */ Noted the winners of the cases.

{{comic
| number = 2037
| date = August 24, 2018
| title = Supreme Court Bracket
| image = supreme_court_bracket.png
| titletext = My bracket was busted in the first round; I had Massachusetts v. Connecticut in the final, probably in a case over who gets to annex Rhode Island.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a SUPREME COURT REFEREE - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

The {{w|Supreme Court of the United States}} is the highest federal court of the United States. A {{w|Bracket (tournament)|tournament bracket}} is a tree diagram that represents the series of games played during a knockout tournament. [[Randall]] suggests that the winners of the 16 listed court cases will file against each other and then again until the final winner is selected.

Court cases are typically titled as plaintiff versus defendant. Randall is spoofing this idea by imagining famous United States Supreme Court cases as though they were games in the first round of a single-elimination tournament, similar to college basketball's March Madness, complete with a ranking bracket. "Sweet 16" in the context of a tournament refers to the stage in a tournament where 16 competitors remain. This comic's concept is thus a word play on "court" (court of law / basketball court).

The cases are, with the winners in bold:

*Marbury v. '''Madison'''
(declared a provision of the Judiciary Act unconstitutional; first time that U.S. Supreme Court overturned a law)

*'''McCulloch''' v. Maryland
(prohibited states from taxing the federal government)

*'''Gibbons''' v. Ogden
(dealt with what are now called antitrust issues)

*'''Near''' v. Minnesota
(found that prior restraints on publication violate freedom of the press as protected under the First Amendment)

*'''NLRB''' v. Jones & Laughlin
(declared that the National Labor Relations Act of 1935 was constitutional)

*'''Brown''' v. Board of Education
(declared that racially segregated schools were inherently unequal and ordered them integrated)

*'''Gideon''' v. Wainwright
(gave defendants unable to afford lawyers the right to have the government provide them with defense lawyers)

*'''Griswold''' v. Connecticut
(right to birth control)

*'''Miranda''' v. Arizona
(required police to inform suspects of their rights)

*'''Loving''' v. Virginia
(overturned a ban on interracial marriage)

*'''Roe''' v. Wade
(right to abortion)

*'''United States''' v. Nixon
(ordered president Nixon to turn over Watergate tapes)

*'''Bush''' v. Gore
(disputed 2000 Presidential election)

*'''Lawrence''' v. Texas
(invalidated sodomy laws)

*'''Massachusetts''' v. Environmental Protection Agency
(decided that the state of Massachusetts has standing to sue the EPA for not doing enough against global warming)

*'''Obergefell''' v. Hodges
(right of homosexuals to marry a person of their own gender)

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Left side:]
:Marbury - Madison
:McCulloch - Maryland
:Gibbons - Ogden
:Near - Minnesota
:NLRB - Jones & Laughlin
:Brown - Board of Education
:Gideon - Wainwright
:Griswold - Connecticut

:[Right side:]
:Miranda - Arizona
:Loving - Virginia
:Roe - Wade
:United States - Nixon
:Bush - Gore
:Lawrence - Texas
:Massachusetts - Environmental Protection Agency
:Obergefell - Hodges

:[Caption below the frame:]
:Now that we've finished the round of 32, the Supreme court will be moving on to the Sweet 16.

{{comic discussion}}