explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:1282: Monty Hall

2013-10-25T17:43:13Z

Uctriton00:

This has absolutely nothing to do with "The Monty Hall Problem". It's strictly about the TV game show ''Let's Make a Deal''. In the game, contestants are often given a choice of several options (Curtains, boxes, envelopes etc). Generally, one has a valuable prize (such as a car), and the others either have a lesser prize or nothing. The "nothing" prizes are often given a colorful name, such as "A pig in a poke". Colloquially, such losing prizes are known as "winning the goat". The joke here is that the contestant, having lost the car, is happy to get a goat as a pet. (In fact, the fine print of the rules make it clear that contestant do not really get such "losing" prizes) [[User:JamesCurran|JamesCurran]] ([[User talk:JamesCurran|talk]]) 15:21, 25 October 2013 (UTC)

: I believe this is correct. The focus of this comic is that he didn't win the prize, but instead got the gag prize. Most contestants on the show are bummed out, but Beret Guy is actually excited for a new pet goat! Sucks though that you can't actually keep the goat like the above commenter said. [[User:Uctriton00|Uctriton00]] ([[User talk:Uctriton00|talk]]) 17:41, 25 October 2013 (UTC)

Monty hall. Is this a Monty Python reference? Or something related to a skit of theirs'?
--[[User:Commarchinin|Commarchinin]] ([[User talk:Commarchinin|talk]]) 04:18, 25 October 2013 (UTC)
: [http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Monty+Hall Not a Monthy Python] -- {{w|Monty Hall}} is a game host famous for Let's Make a Deal which gave birth to the {{w|Monty Hall Problem}} [[User:Spongebog|Spongebog]] ([[User talk:Spongebog|talk]])

I don't understand "It is known that door 3 has a goat, but nothing else." What do you mean by that? At the beginning in the Monty Hall problem, a contestant knows nothing. --[[Special:Contributions/209.51.184.11|209.51.184.11]] 04:27, 25 October 2013 (UTC)
: See {{w|Monty Hall Problem}} [[User:Spongebog|Spongebog]] ([[User talk:Spongebog|talk]])
It goes like this: Player chooses door A, Monty then opens a door he knows there is a goat behind. Player is then offered a chance to switch.

If you do not switch you get a 1/3rd chance of winning because it was a 1 in 3 guess and nothing changed. But if you take into account that Monty will ALWAYS open a goat door and never a car door you can recalculate the odds. So you have a 1/3rd chance that you initially chose the car which means you will lose if you switch 1/3rd of the time, but you had a 2/3rd chance of not selecting the car initially meaning you have a 2/3rds chance if you switch at winning the car. [[Special:Contributions/184.66.160.91|184.66.160.91]] 04:58, 25 October 2013 (UTC)

:Reminds me a bit of [[1134]]: ''Goats make sense. Goats are fine.'' --[[Special:Contributions/132.230.1.28|132.230.1.28]] 08:39, 25 October 2013 (UTC)

[[User:Goldstein-Izayoi|Goldstein-Izayoi]] ([[User talk:Goldstein-Izayoi|talk]]) 14:53, 25 October 2013 (UTC) Umm, I think there's no telling if the Beret Guy chose A or C in the beginning~
:It's either A or C. Then the player should choose again between A or C. [[User:Xhfz|Xhfz]] ([[User talk:Xhfz|talk]]) 14:56, 25 October 2013 (UTC)

; Sequence of the events (assuming Beret Guy initially selects door A)
:''Monty:'' Pick a door.
:''Beret Guy:'' I choose A.
:''Monty:'' I will open another door. It is B. ''(He opens it and they see a goat).'' Do you want to switch doors? ''(Meaning if he will switch from A to C.)''
:''Beret Guy:'' I choose door B.
:''Beret Guy (to the goat):'' ...And my yard has so much grass, and I'll teach you tricks, and...
:''A few minutes later, the goat from behind door C drives away in the car that was behind door A.''

"In that scenario, if a goat is revealed, there is in fact an equal probability of winning by switching or keeping the initial door." I'm not sure of this, can anyone explain? It seems to be stating that simply because of the random chance of the host picking the goat door in this situation then the facts about probability change.This seems to be a very large stretch. Surely in this situation since the host is picking randomly then your probabilities of losing are increased but the moment he does randomly pick a goat door then your chances of winning by switching remain the same as they were in the original problem, 2/3. --[[User:Lackadaisical|Lackadaisical]] ([[User talk:Lackadaisical|talk]]) 17:29, 25 October 2013 (UTC)

Talk:1282: Monty Hall

2013-10-25T17:41:48Z

Uctriton00:

This has absolutely nothing to do with "The Monty Hall Problem". It's strictly about the TV game show ''Let's Make a Deal''. In the game, contestants are often given a choice of several options (Curtains, boxes, envelopes etc). Generally, one has a valuable prize (such as a car), and the others either have a lesser prize or nothing. The "nothing" prizes are often given a colorful name, such as "A pig in a poke". Colloquially, such losing prizes are known as "winning the goat". The joke here is that the contestant, having lost the car, is happy to get a goat as a pet. (In fact, the fine print of the rules make it clear that contestant do not really get such "losing" prizes) [[User:JamesCurran|JamesCurran]] ([[User talk:JamesCurran|talk]]) 15:21, 25 October 2013 (UTC)

: I believe this is correct. The focus of this comic is that he didn't win the prize, but instead got the gag prize. Most contestants on the show are bummed out, but Beret Guy is actually excited for a new pet goat! It would also be interesting to know that if you're ever on the show, if contestants actually keep the gag gift, or if it's just the same reusable goat every time. [[User:Uctriton00|Uctriton00]] ([[User talk:Uctriton00|talk]]) 17:41, 25 October 2013 (UTC)

Monty hall. Is this a Monty Python reference? Or something related to a skit of theirs'?
--[[User:Commarchinin|Commarchinin]] ([[User talk:Commarchinin|talk]]) 04:18, 25 October 2013 (UTC)
: [http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Monty+Hall Not a Monthy Python] -- {{w|Monty Hall}} is a game host famous for Let's Make a Deal which gave birth to the {{w|Monty Hall Problem}} [[User:Spongebog|Spongebog]] ([[User talk:Spongebog|talk]])

I don't understand "It is known that door 3 has a goat, but nothing else." What do you mean by that? At the beginning in the Monty Hall problem, a contestant knows nothing. --[[Special:Contributions/209.51.184.11|209.51.184.11]] 04:27, 25 October 2013 (UTC)
: See {{w|Monty Hall Problem}} [[User:Spongebog|Spongebog]] ([[User talk:Spongebog|talk]])
It goes like this: Player chooses door A, Monty then opens a door he knows there is a goat behind. Player is then offered a chance to switch.

If you do not switch you get a 1/3rd chance of winning because it was a 1 in 3 guess and nothing changed. But if you take into account that Monty will ALWAYS open a goat door and never a car door you can recalculate the odds. So you have a 1/3rd chance that you initially chose the car which means you will lose if you switch 1/3rd of the time, but you had a 2/3rd chance of not selecting the car initially meaning you have a 2/3rds chance if you switch at winning the car. [[Special:Contributions/184.66.160.91|184.66.160.91]] 04:58, 25 October 2013 (UTC)

:Reminds me a bit of [[1134]]: ''Goats make sense. Goats are fine.'' --[[Special:Contributions/132.230.1.28|132.230.1.28]] 08:39, 25 October 2013 (UTC)

[[User:Goldstein-Izayoi|Goldstein-Izayoi]] ([[User talk:Goldstein-Izayoi|talk]]) 14:53, 25 October 2013 (UTC) Umm, I think there's no telling if the Beret Guy chose A or C in the beginning~
:It's either A or C. Then the player should choose again between A or C. [[User:Xhfz|Xhfz]] ([[User talk:Xhfz|talk]]) 14:56, 25 October 2013 (UTC)

; Sequence of the events (assuming Beret Guy initially selects door A)
:''Monty:'' Pick a door.
:''Beret Guy:'' I choose A.
:''Monty:'' I will open another door. It is B. ''(He opens it and they see a goat).'' Do you want to switch doors? ''(Meaning if he will switch from A to C.)''
:''Beret Guy:'' I choose door B.
:''Beret Guy (to the goat):'' ...And my yard has so much grass, and I'll teach you tricks, and...
:''A few minutes later, the goat from behind door C drives away in the car that was behind door A.''

"In that scenario, if a goat is revealed, there is in fact an equal probability of winning by switching or keeping the initial door." I'm not sure of this, can anyone explain? It seems to be stating that simply because of the random chance of the host picking the goat door in this situation then the facts about probability change.This seems to be a very large stretch. Surely in this situation since the host is picking randomly then your probabilities of losing are increased but the moment he does randomly pick a goat door then your chances of winning by switching remain the same as they were in the original problem, 2/3. --[[User:Lackadaisical|Lackadaisical]] ([[User talk:Lackadaisical|talk]]) 17:29, 25 October 2013 (UTC)

Talk:1214: Geoguessr

2013-05-20T15:59:31Z

Uctriton00:

Not only have Statue of liberty lots of replicas, also the original is in Paris. On the other hand, I don't suppose you can mistake the original with New York replica give the size difference. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 08:17, 20 May 2013 (UTC)

So by being in the same country you get a few thousand points. But, then I got an easy one because the street view showed a restaurant called Vila Cha, and sure enough TripAdvisor took me to Vila Cha in Campos Do Jordao in Sao Paolo, Brazil. I double checked in a separate tab the street view of the area, and I hit the point 0.023km off, and got "only" 6477 points. For the difficulty of the game, I'd think you'd get 5 digit scores for that at least. [[User:Uctriton00|Uctriton00]] ([[User talk:Uctriton00|talk]]) 15:59, 20 May 2013 (UTC) uctriton00

1193: Externalities

2013-04-04T16:16:54Z

Uctriton00: /* Title Text */

{{comic
| number = 1193
| date = April 1, 2013
| title = Externalities
| image = externalities.png
| titletext = Mouse over words and things to see where they come from.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete}}
This comic isn't a static image - even the title text changes depending on which part of the image you're hovering over. The blank regions in the above image are dynamically generated from various sources.

*The university that is being recruited changes depending on which university is winning the hash finding competition in the fifth panel.
*The company doing the recruiting is randomly selected from a pool of companies. It was formerly the first NASDAQ-100 company mentioned on a varying Wikipedia page.
*The text in the second panel may vary: See [[1193: Externalities#Second Panel|this section]].
*The text in the third panel may vary: See [[1193: Externalities#Third Panel|this section]].
*The text in the fourth panel may vary: See [[1193: Externalities#Fourth Panel|this section]].
*The text in the fifth panel [[1193: Externalities#Fifth Panel|changes]], depending on which university is currently in third place in a hash finding competition. Clicking on the panel takes you to [http://almamater.xkcd.com/ a webpage] where people can enter their school's domain name and hash data, and ranks schools on how close their students can come to matching a Skein 1024 1024 hash value.
*The text in the top half of the sixth panel may vary. See [[1193: Externalities#Sixth Panel|this section]]. The second half of the panel is always the same.
*The last panel varies with the amount donated to the Wikimedia Foundation via [https://donate.wikimedia.org/?utm_medium=socialmedia&utm_campaign=xkcd_april1 this link]. For past images, see [[1193: Externalities#Seventh Panel|this section]].

===Hashing Competition===
For the two days until comic 1194 appeared, a competition was underway to see who could come closest to breaking a [[wikipedia:Skein_%28hash_function%29|Skein hash]]. The first text line of the first panel contains a link to http://almamater.xkcd.com. This page contained the text:

:Currently looking for Skein 1024 1024 input matching 5b4da95f5fa08280fc9879df44f418c8f9f12ba424b7757de02bbdfbae0d4c4fdf9317c80cc5fe04c6429073466cf29706b8c25999ddd2f6540d4475cc977b87f4757be023f19b8f4035d7722886b78869826de916a79cf9c94cc79cd4347d24b567aa3e2390a573a373a48a5e676640c79cc70197e1c5e7f902fb53ca1858b6

On this page, users were invited to enter "Your school's domain name"—presumably intended to be their college alma mater. (At least in the beginning, only a few top-level domains were accepted.) If the user entered an acceptable domain (by xkcd's rules, which apparently changed during the 48 hours of the competition), he could then enter data values one at a time. For each data value entered, xkcd returned a hash value and the number of bits by which it differed from the target value. The object was to achieve the lowest possible number of differing bits, ideally zero.

A ranking page showed the lowest value achieved for each domain name entered, but not the data that achieved it. The first name on the list was substituted in various panels, and the third-place school showed in panel five. No data values were reported by xkcd, but various results were posted by users of the xkcd forums and on other websites, leading to copycat submissions, so that occasionally large numbers of institutions would show the same moderately low value.

After the end of the contest, the data submission page vanished, replaced by the final list of rankings, which shows that Carnegie Mellon University achieved the best score with 384 bits incorrect out of 1024. The rankings only show a few hundred out of the several thousand domains submitted—presumably Randall chose to chop the copycat submissions off the end of the list, retaining only honestly obtained results.

===First Panel===
In some cases, Megan's reply seems to correspond to the company.
{| class="wikitable table-padding"
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Have you applied to [company] yet?
:Megan: The recruiter hasn't emailed me back in over three minutes.
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Have you applied to [company] yet?
:Megan: The recruiter hasn't emailed me back in over an hour!
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Have you thought of a career at [company]?
:Megan: I'm not that good at math.
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Have you thought of a career at [company]?
:Megan: What do they even do?
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Have you thought of a career at [company]?
:Megan: I don't like monopolies.
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Have you thought of a career at [company]?
:Megan: Only in my darkest moments.
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Be part of the Apple experience!
:Megan: I'm not really a fan of turtlenecks.
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Come work at Microsoft!
:Megan: I only came to this tech talk for the xbox giveaway.
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Y U No Work Yahoo?
:Megan: I like working from home!
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Become a partner at Starbucks!
:Megan: But green's not my colour.
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Come work in the Amazon!
:Megan: I don't have to actually move to South America, do I?
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Have you thought of a career at [company]?
:Megan: Not after that presentation.
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Thought about working for Intel?
:Megan: I'm not that great at division.
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Dude, you should work at Dell!
:Megan: That catchphrase is so old.
|-
|
:Ahoy, carnegie melonites!
:Have you thought of a career at [company]?
:Megan: Not after that presentation.
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Have you looked for a job at Kraft Foods?
:Megan: I'm allergic to sugar
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:How about working for Whole Foods?
:Megan: Could I afford the food if I did?
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Come work at EBay!
:Megan: Maybe if they made a good bid.
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Come work for Activision... er... Blizzard... er...
:Megan: Activision Blizzard?
|-
|
:Hey, [university] students!
:Come find your future at Baidu!
:Megan: But nothing about Tiananmen Square.
|}

===Second Panel===
The text in the second panel is based on the company in the first panel:
{| class="wikitable table-padding"
|-
|
:When the Singularity happens, it will happen here.
:Ponytail: [Company] has outgrown us.
:Men: It is time.
|-
|
:Think of ways to make things smaller and smaller!
:Ponytail: I'm worried mine is too big.
:Men: Yeahhh
|-
|
:Think of ways to make things smaller and smaller!
:Ponytail: But will it blend?
:Men: Yeahhh
|-
|
:You'll be part of a dynamic research team envisioning the future.
:Ponytail: It probably looks cool.
:Men: Yeahhh
|-
|
:You'll be creating the future of commerce platforms!
:Ponytail: More recommendations.
:Men: Yep.
|-
|
:You'll be an insignificant cog in our giant machine
:Ponytail: We should improve Notepad
:Men: Nah
|-
|
:We can't tell you what you'll be working on.
:Ponytail: [Confidential]
:Men: [Redacted]
|-
|
:You'll be an insignificant cog in our giant machine
:Ponytail: Needs more Bob.
:Men: Nah
|-
|
:You'll help set the future of the company
:Ponytail: Wait. You hired a college grad as the CFO?
:Men: Yeahhh
|-
|
:At Qualcomm, we know you're born mobile.
:Ponytail: Born mobile!
:Men: Texting!
|-
|
:Short or tall, we've got a grande job for you!
:Ponytail: How many job openings are there?
:Men: Ele-venti or so.
|-
|
:You'll help direct the future of nutrition
:Ponytail: Microwaveable toast
:Men: Delicious
|-
|
:Help us find and provide the best healthy, local, and sustainable products.
:Ponytail: Hey guys, how about kale cookies?
:Men: Sounds great!
|-
|
:We're the Classmates.com to Facebook's Craigslist.
:Ponytail: Maybe we should use game theory.
:Men: Why Bother?
|-
|
:Whatever. Come create the future of gaming!
:Ponytail: Call of Duty 14.
:Men: That's genius!
|-
|
:It takes great minds to stifle other great minds.
:Ponytail: Let's block Canada
:Men: Sounds good.
|}

===Third Panel===
{| class="wikitable table-padding"
|-
|We're a convenient four hour drive from New York City (15,000 hours by roomba)
|-
|Only a short commuter flight away!
|-
|Travel to us by roomba, we're *that* close!
|-
|We're so close you can get to us by roomba.
|-
|Free roomba rides every morning while you have coffee.
|-
|Your roomba comes in black & slate, or white & silver
|-
|Just a short roomba ride up the coast, try not to fall off.
|-
|We know what everyday life is like for your generation:
|}

===Fourth Panel===
{| class="wikitable sortable plainlinks table-padding"
|-
|Our recruiting team is on the lookup for promising young [university] graduates.
|-
|We hired a new recruiting startup to help us hire [university] students.
|-
|We borrowed the botanical gardens' net to catch promising recruits.
|-
|We prefer to recruit from [university] students, of course.
|-
|Our recruiters are on the hunt for unaware [university] graduates.
|}

===Fifth Panel===
{| class="wikitable table-padding"
|-
|Or students from [university], if they're clever with their applications
|-
|Possibly [university] grads, if their form-filling startup works out.
|-
|Or [university] graduates, provided any of them manage to fill out the application correctly.
|-
|Or [university] graduates, if they manage to fill out the application correctly.
|}

The text in the form varies independently of the text at the top, sometimes related to the organization in 3rd place:

{| class="wikitable table-padding"
|-
!Organization
!Name
!Email
!Education
|-
|MIT
|Oliver Smoot
|pgp encrypted
|have you ever really looked at the fourier
|-
|
|Wheeeee
|ford.com
|stealing lunches from startups
|-
|CMU
|leeroy jenkins
|me@car
|I can cut up melons
|-
|CMU
|pittsburgh
|me@car
|I can cut up melons
|-
|
|SEGMENTATION FAULT
|save trees
|Contra dancing.
|-
|Cambridge
|I'm applying
|cam.gov
|on going problems with birds
|-
|
|certainly
|elephant
|An excellent year in the Sahara
|-
|Stanford
|Stanford
|ford.com
|Stealing lunches from startups
|-
|Stanford
|Yes Please
|@twitter
|Are you Stanford?
|-
|
|Applying
|For a job
|I would like to work at you
|-
|
|Me olaf
|You Helga
|Hunting wooly mammoths
|-
|Ohio State
|Oh!
|IO
|O HAI O
|-
|
|FOLLOWBACK
|TOTALLY.EDU.US
|CONVENIENT US DOMAIN REDIRECTS
|-
|
|Mancher
|Outlook
|Made a collage out of macaroni
|-
|Stanford
|Yes Please
|ford.com
|Are you Stanford?
|-
|Michigan
|ANN
|SOUTH DETROIT
|HUNT LIKE A WOLVERINE
|-
|
|christopher
|POBox 12532
|p.s. ill find my frog
|-
|Oxford
|Bond, James
|Righto
|We're better than Cambridge
|-
|
|Which one
|Forget it
|Riding the L all night long
|-
|
|Kat
|Oh dear
|Something something sleep
|-
|Google
|My G+ handle?
|Any
|I'm feeling lucky
|-
|UIC
|Which one
|Forget it
|Riding the L all night long
|-
|
|MY JOB NOW
|@
|SAVE DOCUMENT AND SEND
|}

===Sixth Panel===
{| class="wikitable table-padding"
|-
|At [company], you'll work at a scale you won't find anywhere else
|-
|Explore the depths of expensive and undocumented tools!
|-
|At Apple, we believe in pushing the boundary of perfection.
|-
|At Microsoft, you just need to relax and embrace the machine 
|-
|Yahoo management aren't just suits. We code too!
|-
|At [company], you'll have the opportinity to work on cutting-edge projects.
|-
|At Amazon, you'll be shaving the most cutting-edge of yaks.
|-
|You get to bid first on any auction, and use other experimental tools!
|-
|At QUALCOMM, Device driver code quality is job #1
|-
|Make use of our powerful in-house game creation tools.
|-
|We're even working on some experimental biotechnology
|}

===Seventh Panel===
{| class="wikitable table-padding"
|-
|[[File:externality-dog1.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog2.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog3.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog4.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog5.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog6.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog7.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog8.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog9.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog10.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog11.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog12.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog13.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog14.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog15.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog16.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog17.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog18.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog19.png]]
|-
|[[File:externality-dog20.png]]
|}

==Title Text==
The title text documents the different sources of data in the comic. The different title texts are:

{| class="wikitable table-padding"
|-
!Comic region
!Title text
|-
|Most of the comic, during the competition.||Mouse over words and things to see where they come from.
|-
|Most of the comic, after the competition ended||This comic went up on April 1st, and the panels changed throughout the day in response to readers doing things like breaking hashes, edited a rapidly-shuffling set of target Wikipedia articles, and donating to Wikimedia Foundation. (The vandalism is over now and CMU won the hashing contest.)
|-
|Most of the text in the first panel.||Happy April 1st, Everyone!
|-
|Fifth panel.||[University] has the third best hash. See the full standings at http://almamater.xkcd.com/best.csv
|-
|Last panel.||The dog gains a pound for every $10 donated to the wikimedia foundation via this link. Currently at [amount donated]
|}

==Transcript==
:[The comic is dynamically generated from multiple sources.]

:[First panel [[1193: Externalities#First Panel|transcript varies.]]]

:[Second panel [[1193: Externalities#Second Panel|transcript varies.]]]

:[Third panel [[1193: Externalities#Third Panel|transcript varies.]]]
:[Ponytail riding on a roomba.]

:[Fourth panel [[1193: Externalities#Fourth Panel|transcript varies.]]]
:[A group of people waiting outside a door. One of them is holding a large net.]

:Or [university] graduates, provided any of them manage to fill out the application correctly.
:Name: [random]
:Email: [Third place university]

:[Sixth panel [[1193: Externalities#Sixth Panel|transcript varies.]]]
:Cueball: What does "make dog" do?
:Off-panel: Experimental dog generator. Don't click on it; the default size isn't set, so-
:'''*click*'''

:''KZZZT''
:BIP
:Off-screen: Uh-oh.

:[Last panel's [[1193: Externalities#Seventh Panel|transcript varies.]]]

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
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