explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

3131: Cesium

2025-08-21T04:12:04Z

Whalepilot: /* How to attract attention */ possible inspiration

{{comic
| number = 3131
| date = August 20, 2025
| title = Cesium
| image = cesium_2x.png
| imagesize = 588x298px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Someday I hope to find a way to mess up a recipe so badly that it draws the attention of the International Air Transport Association, the International Mathematical Olympiad, or the NSA.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|This page was created by a disastrous recipe-creating bot. Need more on the other firms mentioned in the title text and ideas on how he could suceede. Don't remove this notice too soon.}}
{{w|Cesium-137}} (Cs-137) is a radioactive {{w|isotope}} of {{w|Caesium|cesium (a.k.a. "caesium")}}. This comic was posted the day after the {{w|FDA}} posted an [https://www.fda.gov/food/alerts-advisories-safety-information/fda-advises-public-not-eat-sell-or-serve-certain-imported-frozen-shrimp-indonesian-firm advisory] about frozen shrimp sourced from an Indonesian firm, because they were nearby materials contaminated with Cs-137 during shipment. [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/business/radioactive-shrimp-walmart-recall.html A sample of breaded shrimp was confirmed to have been contaminated.]

Rather than being concerned about the potential health impacts, [[Megan]] and [[Cueball]] are curious about the technical details that led to this contamination. Cs-137 is normally a by-product of nuclear reactors and is occasionally used in {{w|Food_irradiation|food irradiation}}, along with other more common uses. Cueball and Megan cannot fathom how one could unintentionally contaminate shrimp with radioactive waste, and Cueball comments that his biggest culinary screw-up only attracted the attention of his local fire department, likely because he set something on fire while cooking. A real-life example of seemingly-random contamination by Cs-137 was the {{w|Goiânia accident}} in Brazil.

The title text says that one of Cueball's (or possibly Randall's) ambitions is to draw the attention of various organizations ({{w|International Air Transport Association}} (IATA), {{w|International Mathematical Olympiad}} or the {{w|National Security Agency}} (NSA)) with a recipe he has butchered, either by accident or, more likely in his case, on purpose. Possessing and (accidentally or intentionally) releasing a radiation source like Cs-137 could get the attention of the NSA. Needless to say, it is difficult to imagine a cooking error that could be in any way brought to the attention of IATA or IMO. To "mess up a recipe", in the sense of cooking it for oneself or a small group of others, would be unlikely to create a problem on a scale that an international agency would take note of. A recipe that was published for others to use could cause more significant problems if it led to harm to many people. This might involve ingredients that were poisonous, or preparation methods that were unsafe. The word "recipe" is sometimes used metaphorically to describe a set of step-by-step instructions for tasks that don't involve food: "recipes" for chemical procedures (not unlike cooking recipes, in many ways), "recipes" for doing things with computers, etc. A number of these might be of interest to security agencies.

===How to attract attention===
To attract the attention of the IATA, if the recipe is used in major airports, and the recipe is contaminated with a drug, the pilots that eat could experience vision loss or other problems, and if this recipe is widely used and normal people won't notice much besides minor side effects, then this could attract the attention of of the IATA.

Attracting the attention of the NSA is pretty easy to think of, there could be a secret code hidden in the ingredients of a recipe, and if the code affects the whole nation, then this could attract the attention of NSA.

A recipe to attract the attention of the International Mathematical Olympiad is much harder to imagine. Randall's best chance might be to cause an incident with some mathematically interesting property that inspires a math puzzle to be written about it. Another possibility is some person is trying to give answers to a person in the olympiad, and gave the person a recipe with the answers as a secret code inside, and this will attract the attention of the International Mathematical Olympiad. However, these are most probably all on purpose and will be very rare to accidentally make these recipes. About a week prior to the publication of this comic, [https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/math-question-viral-elementary-school-bobby-seagull-b2807395.html a mathematical problem involving baking] went viral and was reported on by traditional media, though not by the IMO.

==Transcript==
:[Megan looks at a news story on her phone while talking with Cueball.]
:Megan: There's a recall of frozen shrimp contaminated with cesium-137.
:Cueball: With ''what?''
:Megan: I know, right?
:Cueball: ''How!?''

:[Megan has put her phone away and she shrugs with her arms held out palm up.]
:Megan: No idea, but I bet it involved some expensive equipment. Those cesium sources aren't cheap.
:Cueball: Man.

:[Megan stands normally while Cueball holds a hand to his chin.]
:Megan: It's honestly a little inspiring to realize that it's always possible to screw up in a totally new way.
:Cueball: Yeah, the biggest agency whose attention '''''I've''''' drawn by messing up a recipe is the local fire department.

{{comic discussion}}<noinclude>

[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Food]]
[[Category:Physics]]
[[Category:Math]]

3085: About 20 Pounds

2025-05-06T18:06:42Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ add metric conversion

{{comic
| number = 3085
| date = May 5, 2025
| title = About 20 Pounds
| image = about_20_pounds_2x.png
| imagesize = 666x278px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = In addition to gravity, burritos interact through the strong, weak, and electromagnetic forces, which is believed to be a major contributor to their popularity.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a £20 PARTICLE. Are there any missing categories? Don't remove this notice too soon.}}

The nature of {{w|dark matter}} is a significant unsolved problem in physics. In an effort to solve the problem, [[Cueball]] and [[Ponytail]] appear to have used occult methods to conjure a supernatural {{w|oracle}} (something which would present its own challenges to our understanding of the physical world) in order to demand an answer from it. There may be a pun here, in that they are using 'dark magic' to communicate with something from the 'dark realm' on the assumption that it will know about dark matter. However, the word 'dark' in this context simply means that we do not know how to observe it; dark matter is not evil or satanic{{cn}} (though [[Randall]] may consider it [[:Category:Comics with cursed items|cursed]]).

In general, not all forces interact with all particles; indeed, {{w|gravity}} is the only force that is (believed to) interact with everything. If a force doesn't interact with a particle, then its existence cannot be observed via disturbances in that force. In particular, something that doesn't interact with electromagnetism cannot be 'seen', as photons will pass through it completely unaffected.

Even {{w|neutrino}}s -- famous for interacting with ''almost'' nothing -- still in fact interact via the {{w|weak force}}, allowing them to be detected with sufficiently large tanks of dense material (as most atoms do in fact interact with the weak force, however weakly). A particle that interacts with ''nothing'' except gravity, could only be detected by a gravitational telescope.

However, even if a particle does interact via a given force, an interaction is only possible if energy is conserved. If dark matter is entirely due to a single kind of particle, and the fundamental mass of that particle is ''twenty pounds'' (approximately 9kg) -- an absolutely ludicrous amount of energy for particle physics -- then any interaction would (roughly speaking) have to involve an equally ludicrous amount of other particles being in exactly the right place and time, a coincidence that could easily reach "never in the history of the universe" levels. (By comparison, the {{w|top quark}}, otherwise the heaviest single particle with a mass over a hundred times that of the proton, is still nevertheless around a tenth of a trillionth of a trillionth of a pound.)

Under more normal circumstances, we might still hope to observe the properties of the particle via creating it ourselves under controlled laboratory conditions. But again, there is no reasonable way to focus the energy required into a single particle interaction -- the LHC, for example, peaks at about ten thousand times the mass of the proton, a solid billion times less energy than required -- so that's out too.

Finally, despite all this, twenty pounds is also much too ''small'' to be detectable via gravitational interaction -- its {{w|Perturbation_(astronomy)|influence on the orbits of planets}}, say, or the strength of its {{w|gravitational lensing}} effect, will be entirely negligible. Thus, in the scenario posed by the comic, there is essentially no plausible way to observe more about dark matter while on Earth.

The oracle proceeds to break expectations by suggesting that Ponytail and Cueball go out for {{w|burrito}}s, something generally considered less than scientific. When faced with the apparent futility of continuing to try to investigate dark matter, the oracle predicts going out for burritos is precisely as productive as any other approach (i.e. "not at all").

When the title text observes that burritos interact through the strong, weak, and electro-magnetic forces, it presumably means that they can be seen, smelt, tasted, and their texture sensed, as well as producing digestive effects, and that all of these effects generally tend to be pleasant, hence contributing to their popularity.

==Transcript==
:[Cueball and Ponytail are standing in front of a pentacle with lit candles at the corners. A black sphere, the oracle, is floating above the middle of the pentacle.]
:Ponytail: Dear oracle,
:Ponytail: What is the nature of dark matter?
:Oracle: It's about 20 pounds.

:[Close up of oracle]
:Off-panel: What?
:Oracle: Dark matter is a particle. It weighs about 20 pounds.
:Oracle: It only interacts through gravity.

:[Same view as first panel]
:Cueball: Only gravity, huh?
:Cueball: So none of our experiments are really going to tell us any more about it, then.
:Oracle: Afraid not.

:[Same view as first and third panels, except Cueball lifted his forearm.]
:Cueball: So what do we do?
:Oracle: You should go out for burritos.
:Ponytail: How will that help?
:Oracle: Well
:Oracle: Burritos are pretty good.

{{comic discussion}}<noinclude>
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Physics]]
[[Category:Food]]
</noinclude>

3045: AlphaMove

2025-02-01T01:08:30Z

Whalepilot: may be based on AlphaZero

{{comic
| number = 3045
| date = January 31, 2025
| title = AlphaMove
| image = alphamove_2x.png
| imagesize = 500x526px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = It struggles a little with complex positions, like when there are an even number of moves and it has to round down, but when run against itself it's capable of finding some novelties. At one point I saw six knights on the board at once; Stockfish rarely exceeds four.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by THE SEVENTH KNIGHT, WAITING IN ANTICIPATION. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic shows a new chess engine, presumably created by Randall, which takes a list of all legal moves (in {{w|Algebraic notation (chess)|algebraic notation}}) in alphabetical order and chooses the median. Algebraic notation begins with a symbol for which piece is being moved, which is always the first letter of the piece name except for knights (N) and pawns (nothing). This is then followed by the square that the piece is being moved to. (Rc4 would indicate a move that moved a rook to c4.) Other symbols include (extra info here)

In practice, this algorithm runs into a few issues. As seen in the comic, the algorithm rarely moves bishops and rooks due to their relative lack of moves in the early game, and their tendency to inhabit the edges of any list when they do have sortable moves. Among basic moves, only pawns destined to move in the first two files of a board can ever sort higher than bishops, and nothing other than another rook can be closer to the far end than a rook. AlphaMove can never {{w|Castling|castle}} due to the notation for it (0-0 or 0-0-0) being the only one to start with a number, and thus (if ever possible) always being the first in the list. (It also can't get to a board state where it's the only legal move because the king od rook moving into the empty squares, independently, will always create at least three more moves.) The algorithm instead favors knight and king moves, with entries starting with the most alphabetically middling "K" and "N" list entries, and (to a lesser extent) pawns destined to move up the right side of the board, the "h"-file pawn (or a "g"-file pawn taking a piece to its front-right) generally having the greater statistical chance.

This engine may be named for and inspired by the real chess engine, {{w|AlphaZero}}.

See also [[3036: Chess Zoo]].

On this board, Black can win the game instantly with ...Bb4{{w|Checkmate|#}}. Rather than do anything to defend against this, White just moves an unrelated piece, almost certainly losing right afterward.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
{{comic discussion}}

2990: Late Cenozoic

2024-09-27T10:52:52Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ lazarus taxa and derived fossils

{{comic
| number = 2990
| date = September 25, 2024
| title = Late Cenozoic
| image = late_cenozoic_2x.png
| imagesize = 303x396px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Our nucleic acid recovery techinques found a great deal of homo sapiens DNA incorporated into the fossils, particularly the ones containing high levels of resin, leading to the theory that these dinosaurs preyed on the once-dominant primates.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a ONCE-DOMINANT BOT - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
A major part of understanding how life-forms existed and operated in the past involves finding fossilized remains, and working out a timeline of when they lived, based on the sediment layers in which they were found (among other factors). Modern paleontology has resulted in many of these fossilized remains being dug up and assembled into complete skeletons, which are frequently put on display in museums and other facilities.

This comic posits a distant future in which the remains of current civilization become buried in sediment. Presumably, this involves humanity either going extinct or losing our dominance over the planet. In this context, life-forms of the future (either aliens or earth organisms that have become unrecognizable) have apparently discovered the reconstructed fossils in the ruins of our museums and presumed that they died in our geological era.

The title of the strip refers to the {{w|Cenozoic}} era, which is the current geological era, so "the late Cenozoic" is right now, the time in which humans live. The strip also refers to the {{w|Cretaceous}} period, which is the last period of the {{w|Mesozoic}} era, and the last era in which non-avian dinosaurs lived. The joke here is that in the distant future, our current era would be studied in the same way that we study ancient geological eras, but misunderstood entirely.

The confusion over which era originated dinosaur fossils would present a timeline problem. Dinosaur fossils would be found in layers from the Cretaceous period (ending 66 million years ago), but a significant number of them would also be found in layers from the late Cenozoic (starting no earlier than a hundred years ago, but probably to depend upon when current society breaks down and allows natural sedimentation or debris to build up over the relevant displays), but not in any layers in between. Instead of realizing that these fossils had been dug up, relocated, and reconstructed, the future paleontologists conclude that a small number of these dinosaurs survived the {{w|Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event}}, lived in small numbers for tens of millions of years, leaving no fossil record, and then once again flourished, leaving complete fossils in our era. This is, of course, laughably wrong, but future scientists who didn't understand human civilization might consider it to be the most obvious explanation for such apparently contradictory information.

In real life, the fossil record is sporadic, since only a small fraction of individuals will ever be fossilised. This can lead to "gaps" appearing in the fossil record without any interference from paleontologists and museum curators. When a species (or genus, family, etc.) appears to have gone extinct only to unexpectedly show up again at a later date, it is referred to as a {{w|Lazarus taxon}}. It is also possible for fossils from one time to appear in rock strata of a later age. This occurs when erosion frees the fossil from its original surroundings and deposits it in newer sediment, and results in what is known as a reworked or {{w|derived fossil}}.

The title text says that a high amount of resin and human DNA has led to them theorizing that dinosaurs ate humans. When reconstructing fossils, resin is often used to recreate missing or incomplete bones, and for other purposes in assembling and displaying a "complete" skeleton. Since this resin is made and mixed by humans,{{fact}} incidental human DNA sources (such as cast off skin cells and hair) almost certainly get mixed in, leading to this misconception.

A similar museum, misunderstood by people instead of alien beings, is depicted in [[2760: Paleontology Museum]].

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Three squid-like aliens in a classroom; one alien stands in front of a board covered with minute text and a drawing of a T-Rex skeleton. Two aliens sit on stools watching the teacher alien. The teacher alien on the left is on a raised platform and points at the board with one tentacle.]
:Left alien: Species such as triceratops and tyrannosaurus became more rare after the Cretaceous, but they survived to flourish in the late Cenozoic, 66 million years later.
:Left alien: Many complete skeletons have been discovered from this era.

:[Caption below the panel:]
:It's going to be really funny when our museums get buried in sediment.

==Trivia==
The title text has a typo: "techinques" should be "techniques".

The future beings are presumably ones that took over the far future of the Earth long after the extinction of humans. They are possibly descendents of one or other of the {{w|cephalopod}}s, species widely noted for their intelligence even today, but also bear a passing resemblence to the 'contemporary' [[2572: Alien Observers|alien life-forms]] that [[Randall]] uses for comics set in the current era.

Their relationship with his other [[1747: Spider Paleontology|beings from the future]], seen occasionally, is uncertain. That other form may merely be an 'avatar' presence, made necessary by the time-travel (or visitation) method in use, or else a representative from a [[1450: AI-Box Experiment|predominantly non-biological]] era of the future. 

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Aliens]]
[[Category:Dinosaurs]]
[[Category:Geology]]

Category:Bad Map Projections

2024-06-27T13:28:18Z

Whalepilot: update numbers to account for recent new comic

*A series of comics of bad {{w|map projections}}. Such projections (real and invented) is a topic [[Randall]] often returns to.
**'''Click''' to expand for a more detailed explanation:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed leftAlign" style="width:100%">
 
This series began in [[1784: Bad Map Projection: Liquid Resize|January 2017]], and that it was a series became clear when it got its second installment in [[1799: Bad Map Projection: Time Zones|February 2017]]. But then it took three years until the third came in [[Bad Map Projection: South America|January 2020]]. The fourth came a year and a half later in [[2489: Bad Map Projection: The Greenland Special|July 2021]]. The fifth came nine and a half months later in [[2613: Bad Map Projection: Madagascator|April 2022]]. The sixth came 15 months later in [[2807: Bad Map Projection: ABS(Longitude)|July 2023]].

Randall has been into [[:Category:Maps|maps]] for a long time on xkcd. Especially he focused on map projections, which are various ways to show the Earth on a flat surface, as in [[977: Map Projections]]. This is not possible to do without distortion because the Earth is not flat.{{Citation needed}}

A long time after releasing that comic, which did not say the projections were bad, but clearly showed how different Earth's countries looks in different maps, he continues the list of projections (well, with Bad Map Projections he made himself) in what turned out to be a series, of seven comics so far.

However, these projections are not real projections, and they are all named "Bad Map Projection: ''(Name)''".
They even get a number, which if taken seriously would mean there are 351 other unreleased bad map projections at least, as the highest number so far is 358 and as of 2024 there have been released only seven bad map projections.

So far they have the following numbers (listed in number order rather than release order; the first two were released in the opposite order, and later releases not adhering to any obvious order since then, but with the third having the highest number so far). Release number shown at the end.
:<nowiki>#45</nowiki>: [[2951: Bad Map Projection: Exterior Kansas|2951: Exterior Kansas]] (No. 7)
:<nowiki>#79</nowiki>: [[1799: Bad Map Projection: Time Zones|Time Zones]] (No. 2)
:<nowiki>#107</nowiki>: [[1784: Bad Map Projection: Liquid Resize|The Liquid Resize]] (No. 1)
:<nowiki>#152</nowiki>: [[2807: Bad Map Projection: ABS(Longitude)|ABS(Longitude)]] (No. 6)
:<nowiki>#248</nowiki>: [[2613: Bad Map Projection: Madagascator|Madagascator]] (No. 5)
:<nowiki>#299</nowiki>: [[2489: Bad Map Projection: The Greenland Special|The Greenland Special]] (No. 4)
:<nowiki>#358</nowiki>: [[2256: Bad Map Projection: South America|South America]] (No. 3)

This may give promise of several more bad projections. So far, the first two have been released using a similar six color scheme, like a political map with each country in a different color than its closest neighbors. But the other four were just plain black, gray, and white.
</div>
 

[[Category:Maps]]
[[Category:Comic series]]

2913: Periodic Table Regions

2024-03-29T22:06:38Z

Whalepilot: /* Table Sections */ expand radon and iodine explanation

{{comic
| number = 2913
| date = March 29, 2024
| title = Periodic Table Regions
| image = periodic_table_regions_2x.png
| imagesize = 740x501px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Cesium-133, let it be. Cesium-134, let it be even more.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a LAWFUL NEUTRAL MURDER WEAPON COMMONLY USED TO MAKE PEOPLE'S VOICES SQUEAKY- Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

=== Table Sections ===

{| class=wikitable
! scope="col" | Section
! scope="col" | Real table
! scope="col" | Elements contained
! scope="col" | Explanation
|-
| Slightly fancy protons || Hydrogen || Hydrogen || Hydrogen atoms are a proton and an electron. Since the electron can be removed and you can call that a Hydrogen+ ion, hydrogen is a slightly fancy proton.
|-
| Weird dirt || Group 1 and 2 metals || Lithium, Beryllium || Lithium and beryllium, as some of the lightest elements, have unusual properties compared to heavier metals. Lithium, for instance, is the least dense metal on the periodic table, and beryllium is both toxic and transparent to x-rays.
|-
| Regular dirt || Group 1 and 2 metals || Sodium, Magnesium, Potassium, Calcium || Despite being metals, these are listed as "dirt" rather than "metal." Perhaps this is because they are commonly found in dirt, as they are essential nutrients for plant life (and all other life forms).
|-
| Ends in a number, let it slumber. Ends in a letter, not much better. || Group 1 and 2 metals || Rubidium, Strontium, Cesium, Barium, Francium, Radium || Highly reactive metals, some of which are commonly used as radioactive isotopes (which are known by a number).
|-
| Boring alloy metals. Probably crucial to the spark plug industry or something. (But one of them is radioactive so stay on your toes.) || The left transition metals || Scandium, Vanadium, Chromium, Manganese, Yttrium, Zirconium, Niobium, Molybdeneum, Technetium, Ruthenium, Hafnium, Tantalum, Tungsten, Rhenium || Not actually so boring, but they tend to be used as consituents (sometimes as a small but vital trace) in alloys with specific uses, including {{w|stainless steel}}, {{w|Electric light|bulb filaments}} and {{w|Superconductivity|superconductors}}. A {{w|spark plug}} may use {{w|austenitic stainless steel}}, which includes chromium and (in some cases) molybdenum, for heat and oxidation resistance. {{w|Technetium}} is the lightest element that has no stable isotope.
|-
| Regular metals || The top transition metals || Titanium, Manganese, Iron, Cobalt, Nickel, Copper, Zinc, Aluminum, Silicon || Commonly known metals (and one metalloid, silicon). These all have important uses in construction and other major industries.
|-
| $$$ || The platinum group || Rhodium, Palladium, Silver, Iridium, Platinum, Gold || Rare and highly prized metals.
|-
| Weird metals || The "ordinary metals" and some transition metals || Gallium, Germanium, Cadmium, Indium, Tin, Mercury || These are more obscure than the other metals (except tin and mercury) and tend to have fewer or more specialized uses. Mercury is also the only metal that is liquid at room temperature, and gallium melts just above that at 30 °C (86 °F).
|-
| Boron (fool's carbon) || Boron || Boron ||
|-
| You are here || Nonmetals || Carbon, Nitrogen, Oxygen, Phosphorus || Elements involved in biological processes
|-
| Murder weapons || Ordinary metals and metalloids || Arsenic, Antimony, Tellurium, Thallium, Lead, Bismuth, Polonium || Arsenic, thallium, lead, and polonium are highly toxic and have been involved in many notorious poisoning cases. Antimony and tellurium are also hazardous, though to a lesser degree. Bismuth is the odd one out, having little toxicity at all; the compound bismuth subsalicylate is the main ingredient in Pepto-Bismol.
|-
| Safety Goggles required || The halogens || Fluorine, Sulfur, Chlorine, Selenium, Bromine || These elements are highly reactive.
|-
| Very specific health problems || Iodine and radon || Iodine, Radon || Radon can accumulate in buildings, especially in basements and cellars, since it is a gas that is denser than air. Since it is also radioactive, this accumulation can then result in radiation sickness. Iodine is a required nutrient that humans need in trace amounts to remain healthy, with an iodine deficiency typically causing thyroid problems such as goitre. These two specific health problems are entirely unrelated and it is only by coincidence that they are next to each other on the periodic table.
|-
| Lawful Neutral || Noble Gases || Helium, Neon, Argon, Krypton, Xenon || These elements are mostly unreactive.
|-
| Don't bother learning their names – they're not staying long || Astatine and Period 7 from Rutherfordium onwards || Astatine, Rutherfordium, Dubnium, Seaborgium, Bohrium, Hassium, Meitnerium, Darmstadtium, Roentgenium, Copernicum, Nihonium, Flevorium, Moscovium, Livermorium, Tennessine, Oganesson || These elements are hard to produce in large quantities and most of them decay within hours.
|-
| Whoever figures out a better way to fit these up there gets the next Nobel Prize || The lanthanides and actinides || Lanthanum, Cerium, Praesodymium, Neodymium, Promethium, Samarium, Europium, Gadolinium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Holmium, Erbium, Thulium, Ytterbium, Lutetium, Actinium, Thorium, Protactinium, Uranium, Neptunium, Plutonium, Americium, Curium, Berkelium, Californium, Einsteinium, Fermium ||
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[A periodic table with regions labeled.]

:[Hydrogen:]
:Slightly fancy protons
:[Lithium and beryllium:]
:Weird dirt
:[4 elements below:]
:Regular dirt
:[6 elements further below:]
:Ends in a number, let it slumber
:ends in a letter, not much better
:[Left side of the transition metals group:]
:Boring alloy metals
:Probably critical to the spark plug industry or something
:(but one of them is radioactive so stay on your toes)
:[Most of the top row of the transition metals + aluminum:]
:Regular metals
:[Below the rightmost "regular metals":]
:Weird metals
:[Between "boring alloy metals" and "weird metals":]
:$$$$
:[Boron:]
:Boron (fool's carbon)
:[Top-center of p-block:]
:You are here
:[Top-right of p-block, excluding the rightmost column:]
:Safety goggles required
:[5 uppermost elements of the rightmost column:]
:Lawful neutral
:[Iodine and radon:]
:Very specific health problems
:[Below and to the right of "weird metals":]
:Murder weapons
:[Bottom row from the fourth column onwards:]
:Don't bother learning their names - they're not staying long
:[The lanthanides and actinides below the rest of the table, arrow pointing to a gap in the third column:]
:Whoever figures out a better way to fit these up there gets the next Nobel Prize

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Chemistry]]

2828: Exoplanet Observation

2023-09-13T18:58:51Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ etymology

{{comic
| number = 2828
| date = September 13, 2023
| title = Exoplanet Observation
| image = exoplanet_observation_2x.png
| imagesize = 295x272px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = NASA prefers to say that their rovers are 'looking for signs of past life on Mars' and not 'ghost hunting.'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an ALIEN GHOST EXORCIST - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Spectral analysis as used in the study of exoplanets and other distant objects in space refers to using the intensities of different frequencies of light (and other electromagnetic frequencies) from stars which they occlude to infer data about their chemical composition. This is used to detect certain gases in the atmosphere, such as {{w|Oxygen#Allotropes|free oxygen}}, which might suggest generation by and for Earth-like life. On the day before this comic was published, NASA announced that spectral analysis of the exoplanet K2-18 b showed abundance of methane and carbon dioxide, and shortage of ammonia, which are chemical footprints that support the hypothesis that it may have a life-supporting water ocean; and there was possible detection of dimethyl sulfide, which on Earth is only produced by life.[https://www.nasa.gov/goddard/2023/webb-discovers-methane-carbon-dioxide-in-atmosphere-of-k2-18b] The word spectral as in spectral analysis refers to the electromagnetic spectrum. If confirmed, these would be very interesting scientific facts that would definitely drive further scrutiny, although it may yet turn out to be less remarkable {{w|Life on Venus#Phosphine|on closer study}}.

"Spectral" can also be used to refer to ghosts or "spectres". Here it is suggested that the planet may have ghosts in its atmosphere due to the light that they absorb, similar to how gases may absorb certain wavelengths. Like many atmospheric gases, ghosts are typically invisible{{Citation needed}}, however they may have their own absorption spectrum distinguishing them from normal gases. The presence of ghosts in an exoplanet's atmosphere can also be considered evidence of (past) alien life.

"Spectre" and "spectrum" have the same etymological root, deriving from Latin "spectrum" meaning "appearance", with a spectre specifically referring to a visible ghost. This makes the pun less surprising, but does reinforce the idea that these may be the best ghosts to hunt for in this manner.

The title text refers to the search for past life on Mars. It draws similarities between looking for real signs such as specific molecules or fossils (which NASA is actually doing), and looking for fictional ghosts of dead creatures (which would also be an indication of past life). In a very loose sense, real signs such as gases or fossils could be considered "ghosts" of past life.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:: [Cueball is holding a stick and pointing at a slide with two ghosts and a planet]
:: Cueball: When the planet passed in front of its host star, some of the light was absorbed by ghosts, indicating that the planet is likely haunted.

:: [Caption below the panel]
:: Exoplanet Spectral Analysis

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Astronomy]]
[[Category:Exoplanets]]
[[Category:Aliens]]
[[Category:Puns]]

2826: Gold

2023-09-09T17:00:01Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ typo

{{comic
| number = 2826
| date = September 8, 2023
| title = Gold
| image = gold_2x.png
| imagesize = 695x272px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = It can be expensive to hire a professional spectroscopist for your wedding, but the quality of the spectra you get is worth it.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a single married neutron stars! Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

The comic depicts a seldom heard explanation of why {{w|gold}} is a common {{w|wedding ring}} material; that humans chose it due to its symbolism in reference to its creation. Gold, as the comic states, is most commonly created in the merge of {{w|neutron star}}s; something which could be seen as a "marriage". However, it's likely that the original use of gold in wedding rings was before the discovery of how it was created {{citation needed}}, thus creating the joke of the comic.

Wedding receptions sometimes have a ''theme'', which is used to style the decorations and activities of the party. If the couple has a shared interest in something in popular culture (especially if this is how they met), they might use that as the theme. [[Megan]] suggests that "Binary Neutron Star Merger" would be a fun theme; this would probably only be true for astronomers or cosmologists{{citation needed}}. [[Cueball]] adds that an activity at such a wedding would be ejecting the bouquet at relativistic speeds; this is a reference to the traditional activity of the bride throwing her bouquet into the crowd, and whoever catches it is predicted to be the next to get married. The energy of neutron stars causes material to be ejected at a high fraction of the speed of light, giving them enormous amounts of energy based on Einstein's Theory of Relativity. If you caught such a bouquet at rest relative to the merger point, you would be destroyed by the energy, so everyone tries not to catch it in that fashion.{{citation needed}}

Continuing with the cosmological theme, the title text suggests that the wedding photographer would be a spectroscopist. {{w|Spectroscopy}}, which determines the composition of materials by splitting its light into a spectrum and analyzing the wavelengths that are strong and those that are missing, is a common way to study {{w|stars}}, {{w|nebulae}}, and other astronomical phenomena.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball holding some small sparkling thing, implied to be a gold wedding ring]
:Cueball: It kinda makes sense that we use gold for wedding rings.

:[Frame shifts to Cueball's head]
:Cueball: Because a lot of the universe's gold was probably produced by R-process nucleosynthesis when pairs of neutron stars spiraled together and merged.
:Cueball: So gold exists because two neutron stars got married.

:[Megan walks in from side towards Cueball]
:Megan: "Binary neutron star merger" would be a fun wedding theme.
:Cueball: Everyone has to try '''''not''''' to catch the relativistically-ejected bouquet.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Cosmology]]

2810: How to Coil a Cable

2023-09-08T00:18:28Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ expand acronym + formatting for bulleted list

{{comic
| number = 2810
| date = August 2, 2023
| title = How to Coil a Cable
| image = how_to_coil_a_cable_2x.png
| imagesize = 366x713px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = The ideal mix for maximum competitive cable-coiling energy is one A/V tech, one rock climber, one sailor, and one topologist.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a CLIMBING MARINE A/V TOPOLOGIST - Add links to all relevant coiling techniques - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

When long cables or ropes are stored, it's recommended that they be wrapped into neat coils. Not only does this look less messy, but it reduces the danger that cables become entangled with themselves, and with other cables nearby, which can create a major nuisance, and in some cases even risk of damage or injury. However, simply wrapping the whole thing in the same direction introduces twists into the body of the cable. Over time, these twists can permanently deform the cable, causing it to twist into spirals, and once again risking damage.

In this strip, [[Cueball]] demonstrates his method for dealing with such problematic cables: he loudly announces the problem, blaming the cable itself. Well-meaning people then immediately descend upon him, eager to share their obscure knowledge of cable-coiling technique that they claim will avoid these issues (a bit like in [[208: Regular Expressions]]). As they explain their techniques for properly coiling cables, they demonstrate on the cable in question, resulting in it becoming neatly coiled. The implication is that Cueball didn't actually learn the techniques involved, but is confident that, in the future, he can simply employ the same technique to get others to do it for him. It's also implied that loudly (and wrongly) blaming the cable is the most effective way to get help, analogous to {{w|Ward_Cunningham#Law|Cunningham's Law}}, which states that "the best way to get the right answer on the Internet is not to ask a question; it's to post the wrong answer". This technique will cause some people to [[Duty Calls|compulsively correct it]], particularly those who are serious about the subject in question.

The title text specifies four groups of people who are likely to have knowledge about coiling cables, and to be serious about the 'right' way to do it.
* A/V (audio visual) technicians constantly work with multiple types of electrical and data cables, and have to store and sort them without tangling or twisting.
* Rock climbers constantly work with ropes, and their lives and safety may depend on keeping those in good condition and using them properly.
* Sailors traditionally worked on sailing ships, which operated using systems of rigging (often quite complex systems) and sailors were expected to be intimately familiar with handling knots and ropes. Even on more modern vessels, mooring ropes (at a minumum) are still likely to be, in turn, deployed and then stored away upon a working vessel at either end of a visit to a port or harbour.
* Topologists are mathematicians who specialize in study of spatial relations in changing shapes, and is sometimes referred to (somewhat facetiously) as the science of knots. The joke here is that a topologist could likely give an expert analysis in the theory of coiling and storing ropes, but may lack practical experience for doing so in real life.

The methods mentioned in step 3 are all references to actual terms and methods involved with storing rope or cable.

* The "Over-under Method" is a way of coiling cable by hand, where every other loop is twisted in the opposite direction to the first. Doing this properly prevents twists, because each coil reverses the twist introduced by the previous coil.
* "Figure-8" is a method where are rope or cable is wound from a center point, making a circle in one direction, then another in the opposite direction (forming an '8' shape), then repeating until the whole thing is coiled. This prevents twists by turning the rope in both directions an equal number of times.
* "Quarter-turn" is similar to the over-under method, but rather than reversing the direction of the coils, you give the rope a quarter-twist each time you add a loop, to counter the twist introduced.
* "Flaking" involves laying the rope out loosely on a surface. This allows you to unwind any twists or tangles, as well as checking it for kinks or damage. This would often be a first step in preparing the cable.

The joke is that all of the various people involved will have their own preferred technique, and all will rush to prove their superiority of doing things their way. The net effect of this competition is that Cueball's cable ends up neatly coiled, with little effort on his part, which is exactly what he wanted.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:How to Coil a Cable Properly
:[A drawing of a tangled cable appears below the title.]

:Step 1
:[Cueball is standing holding a tangled mess of cable in both hands. Each end of the cable is dragging on the ground.]
:Cueball: I need to buy a different brand of cable! This one always twists into spirals and gets tangled.

:Step 2
:[Ponytail enters the panel from the left, and White Hat enters from the right, to come to Cueball’s rescue.]
:White Hat: No! That's because of how you're coiling it!

:Step 3
:[White Hat holds and coils the cable while he, Hairy, and Ponytail attempt to explain the method behind the cable coiling. Ponytail, White Hat, and Hairy all have the same speech balloon, with many of the words replaced by scribbles to indicate that they are talking over each other and/or that Cueball can only make out a few phrases. Only the following dialogue in the word balloon is legible.]
:Ponytail / White Hat / Hairy: ...over-under method... ...figure-8... ...quarter-turn... ...flaking...

:Step 4
:[White Hat presents the well-coiled cable. A caption with an arrow points to the cable:]
:Neatly coiled!

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]

2825: Autumn and Fall

2023-09-06T22:38:24Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ other ways of reckoning the seasons outside of the four-season system

{{comic
| number = 2825
| date = September 6, 2023
| title = Autumn and Fall
| image = autumn_and_fall_2x.png
| imagesize = 392x212px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Of course in reality this is just a US/UK thing; in British English, 'fall' is the brief period in between and 'autumn' is the main season.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a FALLING BOT - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

{{w|Autumn}}, also known as "fall" in the United States, is the season between summer and winter. These terms are used interchangeably, but Randall in this comic treats them as separate seasons. His timeline uses "autumn" as the season between the end of summer and the "{{w|September equinox|fall equinox}}", and the season of "fall" as the period after that until winter. Of course, while many different parts of the world use different ways of reckoning the {{w|seasons}} (eg, a two-season system in the tropics or a six-season system in South Asia), nowhere uses the type of five-season system shown in the comic.{{Citation needed}}

The comic depicts two of the three possible boundaries, for any given hemisphere, for the recognised end of summer.
* Some treatments of the seasons (not shown) treat the summer solstice very much as "midsummer", and all other seasons also more or less equally straddling their own equinoxes/remaining solstice, putting the seasonal boundaries half way between each of these astronomically significant points.
* For others, the equinoctial/solstitial dates are used for the changeover time, so that autumn/fall starts upon the equinox (shown) and ends at the astronomically shortest day which is then the start of winter. This system tends to be traditional where the annual warming and cooling of the climate significantly 'lags' the solar calendar.
* Meteorological seasons are handily aligned to months, for administrative reasons. Spring is March through May, summer across June to August, the September start (to the close of November) is as illustrated, leaving winter to be covered by December and on until the end of the following February. Or shifted round by two of the triples for the southern hemisphere.

The title text "reverses" these 2 extra seasons, as the term "autumn" is more commonly used in the UK, compared to "fall" in the US.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Time]]
[[Category:Timelines]]

1766: Apple Spectrum

2023-08-27T12:38:41Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ spelling (lead -> led)

{{comic
| number = 1766
| date = November 30, 2016
| title = Apple Spectrum
| image = apple_spectrum.png
| titletext = If I were trapped on a desert island, and could have an unlimited supply of any one type of apple, I'd be like, "How did this situation happen?"
}}

==Explanation==

The comic shows a {{w|spectrum}} of different types of apples, with {{w|Red Delicious}} towards the bad end of the spectrum, and {{w|Honeycrisp}} towards the good end of the spectrum. Although most spectra are only one-dimensional, {{w|Granny Smith}} is on some side branch, implying that the taste is so different from the other two that it deserves its own category. (Granny Smith apples have a distinctively tart, or sour, flavor with a subtle sweetness, and is commonly used for cooking, as opposed to the other mentioned varieties that are quite sweet and primarily eaten raw.) [[Randall]] has previously shown his disdain for Red Delicious apples in footnote 1 in [https://books.google.com/books?id=tgZIBAAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&pg=PA97#v=onepage&q&f=false this what if]; he also ranked green apples as tastier than red apples in [[388: Fuck Grapefruit]]. The labeling of Red Delicious as "bad" compared to apples in general is perhaps unwarrantedly uncharitable; most apple trees produce fruit so bad that it is considered unfit for any purpose but fermentation. On the rare occasions that a tree naturally produces palatable apples, it is grafted onto other trees so that they will produce more of its apples instead of their own--all Granny Smiths are genetically identical. For a long time, though, in the US apples were mainly divided into three sorts. In case of the Red Delicious apples the color, not the taste was deemed most important to the buyers which (along with the genetic variability of Red Delicious) led to many Red Delicious apples breeds that looked great, but actually tasted bad, leading to a big restructuring of the apple market.

In the title text, Randall observes a common type of hypothetical question designed as a creative way to inquire about a person's preferences: If he were on a desert island with an unlimited access to something they like -- in this case, unlimited supply of any one type of apple -- what would he choose? However, Randall gives an unorthodox and unexpected answer to the typically playful hypothetical by taking it literally and questioning how such a situation would occur. How did he get stuck on the island, and how did he get a literally unlimited supply of apples? In reality, a desert island is unlikely to have an unlimited supply of any food{{Citation needed}}, let alone apples.

Randall's opinions on Red Delicious apples were referenced again in the title text for [[2820: Inspiration]].

==Transcript==
[A mapping, showing types of apples. Each apple is in a bubble]
<div style="text-align: center;">
Bad ⟵ Red Delicious — Regular apples — Honeycrisp ⟶ Good
 |
 Granny Smith
 ↓
 Doing their own thing
</div>

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Charts]]

2819: Pronunciation

2023-08-23T23:51:12Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ moped is a verb, not an adjective

{{comic
| number = 2819
| date = August 23, 2023
| title = Pronunciation
| image = pronunciation_2x.png
| imagesize = 315x257px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = I pronounce the 'u' in 'pronunciation' like in 'putting' but the 'ou' in 'pronounce' like in 'wound'.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a {{w|Ghoti|GHOTI}} - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

The comic purports to show how to pronounce the word "Tuesday". However, it does so through the use of ambiguous comparison pronunciations as a guide. Often these guides are used to tell people how something is pronounced without resorting to the {{w|International Phonetic Alphabet}}, which most are unfamiliar with (or at least may have to check the more obscure symbols). Instead, one can directly {{wiktionary|Appendix:English pronunciation|quote familiar words}} that feature the phonemes, presuming only that any individual variations of accent and dialect vary uniformly (if at all) between both example and target words.

But ''these'' selected guide-words are confusingly chosen. They are heterophonic homographs – words that, under alternate contexts, are identically spelled but pronounced in very different ways.

(Note: General American pronunciations are primarily assumed here except when otherwise stated)

{| class="wikitable"
! Guide !! Correct !! Other !! Notes
|-
| Buffe'''t'''
| /ˈbʌf.ɪ'''t'''/ (verb: strike)
| /ˈbʌ.feɪ/ (noun: self-serve diner)
|
|-
| Min'''u'''te
| /maɪˈn'''(j)uː'''t/ (adjective: small)
| /ˈmɪn'''ɪ'''t/ (noun: unit of time)
|
|-
| R'''e'''cord
|
| /ɹ'''ɪ'''ˈkɔɹd/ (verb: write down/make permanent) /ˈɹ'''ɛ'''k.ɚd/ or /ˈɹ'''ɛ'''k.ɔɹd/ (noun: thing containing information)
| Neither is actually the correct e, the correct e would be silent.
|-
| U'''s'''e
| /juː'''z'''/ (verb: to employ a thing for a particular end)
| /juː'''s'''/ (noun: the action of employing that thing)
|
|-
| Mope'''d'''
| /ˈmoʊ.pɛ'''d'''/ (noun: motor scooter with an engine smaller than 50cc)
| /moʊp'''t'''/ (verb: brooded, felt dejected)
|
|-
| B'''a'''ss
| /b'''eɪ'''s/ (noun: low-pitched notes and the instruments that play them)
| /b'''æ'''s/ (noun: fish)
| /æ/ is also correct in New Zealand English.
|-
| G'''y'''ro
| /ˈj'''iː'''.ɹoʊ/, /ˈj'''ɪ'''ɹoʊ/ or /ˈʒ'''ɪ'''ɹoʊ/ (noun: Greek sandwich with meat cooked on a vertical rotisserie)
| /ˈd͡ʒ'''aɪ'''.ɹoʊ/ (noun: gyroscope)
| The sandwich can also be pronounced like the gyroscope.
|}

Following this guide, a pronunciation of Tuesday as /ɪɛstæaɪ/ is possible.

The title text references how some people pronounce the word "pron'''u'''nciation" like "pron'''ou'''nce" (with /aʊ/) and others use a different vowel (/ʌ/). Here Randall is saying that he pronounces them with the 'u' from "putting" and the 'ou' from "wound". If we take putting to mean /ˈpʌtɪŋ/ (golf) and wound as /waʊnd/ (coiled), this could mean he pronounces them using the commonly differing pronunciations. However those two words could also be pronounced /ˈpʊtɪŋ/ (placing) and /wund/ (injury), indicating a non-standard way of saying each word. In accents that lack the {{w|FOOT-STRUT split}}, such as those in the north of England, both versions of "putting" would be pronounced identically.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[The word "Tuesday", with each letter labeled by a box with an arrow:]
:T: As in buffe'''t'''
:u: As in min'''u'''te
:e: As in r'''e'''cord
:s: As in u'''s'''e
:d: As in mope'''d'''
:a: As in b'''a'''ss
:y: As in g'''y'''ro

:[Caption below the panel:]
:Pet peeve: Ambiguous pronunciation guides

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Language]]
[[Category:Pet Peeves]]

2819: Pronunciation

2023-08-23T23:48:05Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ FOOT-STRUT split

{{comic
| number = 2819
| date = August 23, 2023
| title = Pronunciation
| image = pronunciation_2x.png
| imagesize = 315x257px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = I pronounce the 'u' in 'pronunciation' like in 'putting' but the 'ou' in 'pronounce' like in 'wound'.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a {{w|Ghoti|GHOTI}} - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

The comic purports to show how to pronounce the word "Tuesday". However, it does so through the use of ambiguous comparison pronunciations as a guide. Often these guides are used to tell people how something is pronounced without resorting to the {{w|International Phonetic Alphabet}}, which most are unfamiliar with (or at least may have to check the more obscure symbols). Instead, one can directly {{wiktionary|Appendix:English pronunciation|quote familiar words}} that feature the phonemes, presuming only that any individual variations of accent and dialect vary uniformly (if at all) between both example and target words.

But ''these'' selected guide-words are confusingly chosen. They are heterophonic homographs – words that, under alternate contexts, are identically spelled but pronounced in very different ways.

(Note: General American pronunciations are primarily assumed here except when otherwise stated)

{| class="wikitable"
! Guide !! Correct !! Other !! Notes
|-
| Buffe'''t'''
| /ˈbʌf.ɪ'''t'''/ (verb: strike)
| /ˈbʌ.feɪ/ (noun: self-serve diner)
|
|-
| Min'''u'''te
| /maɪˈn'''(j)uː'''t/ (adjective: small)
| /ˈmɪn'''ɪ'''t/ (noun: unit of time)
|
|-
| R'''e'''cord
|
| /ɹ'''ɪ'''ˈkɔɹd/ (verb: write down/make permanent) /ˈɹ'''ɛ'''k.ɚd/ or /ˈɹ'''ɛ'''k.ɔɹd/ (noun: thing containing information)
| Neither is actually the correct e, the correct e would be silent.
|-
| U'''s'''e
| /juː'''z'''/ (verb: to employ a thing for a particular end)
| /juː'''s'''/ (noun: the action of employing that thing)
|
|-
| Mope'''d'''
| /ˈmoʊ.pɛ'''d'''/ (noun: motor scooter with an engine smaller than 50cc)
| /moʊp'''t'''/ (adjective: dejected)
|
|-
| B'''a'''ss
| /b'''eɪ'''s/ (noun: low-pitched notes and the instruments that play them)
| /b'''æ'''s/ (noun: fish)
| /æ/ is also correct in New Zealand English.
|-
| G'''y'''ro
| /ˈj'''iː'''.ɹoʊ/, /ˈj'''ɪ'''ɹoʊ/ or /ˈʒ'''ɪ'''ɹoʊ/ (noun: Greek sandwich with meat cooked on a vertical rotisserie)
| /ˈd͡ʒ'''aɪ'''.ɹoʊ/ (noun: gyroscope)
| The sandwich can also be pronounced like the gyroscope.
|}

Following this guide, a pronunciation of Tuesday as /ɪɛstæaɪ/ is possible.

The title text references how some people pronounce the word "pron'''u'''nciation" like "pron'''ou'''nce" (with /aʊ/) and others use a different vowel (/ʌ/). Here Randall is saying that he pronounces them with the 'u' from "putting" and the 'ou' from "wound". If we take putting to mean /ˈpʌtɪŋ/ (golf) and wound as /waʊnd/ (coiled), this could mean he pronounces them using the commonly differing pronunciations. However those two words could also be pronounced /ˈpʊtɪŋ/ (placing) and /wund/ (injury), indicating a non-standard way of saying each word. In accents that lack the {{w|FOOT-STRUT split}}, such as those in the north of England, both versions of "putting" would be pronounced identically.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[The word "Tuesday", with each letter labeled by a box with an arrow:]
:T: As in buffe'''t'''
:u: As in min'''u'''te
:e: As in r'''e'''cord
:s: As in u'''s'''e
:d: As in mope'''d'''
:a: As in b'''a'''ss
:y: As in g'''y'''ro

:[Caption below the panel:]
:Pet peeve: Ambiguous pronunciation guides

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Language]]
[[Category:Pet Peeves]]

1455: Trolley Problem

2023-08-22T04:21:07Z

Whalepilot: /* Trivia */ more comics mentioning the trolley problem

{{comic
| number = 1455
| date = December 3, 2014
| title = Trolley Problem
| image = trolley_problem.png
| titletext = For $5 I promise not to orchestrate this situation, and for $25 I promise not to take further advantage of this ability to create incentives.
}}

==Explanation==
The {{w|trolley problem}} is a thought experiment often posed in {{w|philosophy}} to explore moral questions, with applications in {{w|cognitive science}} and {{w|neuroethics}}. The general version is that an out of control trolley (or train) is heading towards 5 people on the track who can't get out of the way. On an alternative branch of the track is 1 person who can't get out of the way. The trolley can be diverted by using a lever, with the consequence of saving the 5 people but killing the 1 person.

The choice is between a deliberate action that will directly kill one person, or allowing events to unfold naturally, resulting in five deaths. The question posed is whether or not it is morally right to pull the lever. The moral question is not as simple as it may first appear.

This results of [http://www.philosophyexperiments.com/fatman/Default4.aspx this test] report that around 86% of respondents choose the utilitarian option of diverting the trolley.

There are, however, several alternative formulations of the same basic dilemma. One such scenario allows you to stop the trolley by deliberately pushing "a very fat man" into its path, killing the man but saving the other five people. Another scenario involves selecting a healthy young and innocent person to die, in order to save five others going through organ donation. In both of these examples the basic dilemma is the same. However, most people reject the utilitarian option in these cases.

After discovering a variation on this problem posed in a strip of the [http://www.smbc-comics.com/?id=3556#comic Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal] webcomic (which can be seen on the tablet he is carrying), [[Rob|Cueball]], Black Hat's roommate, presents it to [[Black Hat]]. Before Cueball can finish explaining the problem, most notably leaving out the disadvantage to flipping the lever where it would kill one person, Black Hat questions whether he would need to get up to reach the lever and how much it would interrupt his other activities. As usual, he cares nothing at all about what happens to other people. This response is linked to another theory in philosophy, that of {{w|self interest}} or {{w|egoism}} or {{w|Objectivism (Ayn Rand)|Objectivism}}, in which a person will choose the action with the most benefit for them personally.

Black Hat then poses an offer: he promises to divert the trolley if Cueball is one of the five endangered people, provided that Cueball pays him $1 now. Again Black Hat is twisting the situation to his own benefit, in this case monetary. In the case of self-interest, the $1 could be the price at which Black Hat values his time and effort, below which he feels there is no benefit to himself in pulling the lever. Cueball decides that there is no point posing the problem to someone like Black Hat and gives up. This further shows that it is challenging for people with different ethical frameworks to function together without a common understanding, either mutually or with one side using that understanding to motivate a mutually agreeable or horrible solution.

The title text follows this up by continuing Black Hat's offers. For $5 he will not deliberately arrange this situation and for $25 he will quit looking for further incentives. These attempts to exploit the thought exercise for personal gain further demonstrate Black Hat's cynical amorality.

Black Hat's offer makes Cueball himself the subject of the trolley problem: Cueball now has a choice of expending $1 to save 5 people while sacrificing one person, or $5 to save all 6 people. Of course, he could dismiss the offer as a joke, if not for the fact that the person making it, which, as we know from other comics, is very much capable of such exploits.

==Transcript==
:Cueball: Ever heard of the trolley problem?
:Black hat: No. What is it?

:Cueball: A trolley is barreling towards five helpless people on the tracks. You can pull a lever to direct it onto another track, but-

:Black hat: Can I reach the lever without getting up?
:Cueball: Wait, I'm not-
:Black hat: In this scenario, how busy am I?

:Cueball: I guess I forgot who I was talking to.
:Black hat: For a dollar, I'll promise to pull the lever if one of the five people is you.

==Trivia==
*Three years later two comics were released with about one month between them where the Trolley problem was mentioned. In [[1925: Self-Driving Car Milestones]] it is in the last ''milestone'' on the list and a month later, in [[1938: Meltdown and Spectre]], it is used as a metaphor for the way some computer programs work. It would subsequently come up again in [[2635: Superintelligent AIs]], [[2702: What If 2 Gift Guide]], and [[2818: Circuit Symbols]].

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Black Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Philosophy]]
[[Category:Comics with color]]

2816: Types of Solar Eclipse

2023-08-17T01:47:40Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ typo

{{comic
| number = 2816
| date = August 16, 2023
| title = Types of Solar Eclipse
| image = types_of_solar_eclipse_2x.png
| imagesize = 501x572px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = The best place to be for a hug eclipse is a scenic natural area with good views and few clouds. The worst place to be is the lunar surface.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a DARK SHADOW OF A DRAGONITE THAT PERIODICALLY EATS THE SUN - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

There are various different types of {{w|solar eclipse}}. The comic purports to show and names a number of them, initially quite real and accurate before heading into traditional xkcd fantasticality.

The punchline is where he likens an eclipse to a 'hug' of the Moon by the Sun. This is of course, not practically possible.{{citation needed}} The Sun is 93 million miles or 150 million kilometers away from the Moon. Even if it was somehow moved towards touching distance by advanced sci-fi tech or a terrible disaster, the Moon would vaporize on contact with the Sun's plasma, thus not allowing for any sort of hug. In fact, we would not live very long if this happened, as the Earth would be baked by the Sun's light, then swallowed by its intense gravity.

In the title text, the hug eclipse is mentioned again, this time in regards to where the best location to be would be. First, normal advice is given about how the best way to view the eclipse would be in a scenic and natural area with few clouds. Then he mentions that the lunar surface would be the worst place to go in a solar hug - as it would be blasted with thousands of degrees of heat from the sun.

{| class="wikitable"
!Label
!Image
!Description
|-
|Partial
|Sun partly obscured by an offset occlusion
|Whenever the Moon does not totally line up with the Sun (for any or all observers), the 'shadow' will not cross the centre of the Sun. The parts of a full eclipse before second contact and and after third contact are also described as partial phases of the eclipsing event.
|-
|Total
|Sun entirely obscured by a slightly larger concentric occlusion
|When the Moon is close to perigee (or assisted by the Earth being at aphelion) during an eclipse, the Moon's apparent size is slightly larger than that of the Sun and will cover the whole solar disc. This is an astronomically useful effect, as well as aesthetically interesting to look at, as observers can study solar prominsnces and the atmosphere of the Sun while not being blinded by the glare of the bright 'surface' of the star.
|-
|Annular
|Sun partly obscured by a slightly smaller concentric occlusion
|With the Moon nearer its apogee (and/or the Earth at perihelion), the Sun instead has a larger angular size than the Moon and will not be totally covered even by the most central alignment of each body.
An eclipse can also be called "hybrid" (not illustrated in the diagram), by being seen as both Total and Annular by different observers. Those viewing at more extreme latitudes or more westerly/easterly (the eclipse being closer to dawn and dusk, local time) are viewing both Moon and Sun from slightly further away around the curve of the planet and so make the nearer Moon decreases in angular size proportionately greater than the much more distant Sun and so see annularity for the same eclipse for which others see totallity.
|-
|Oblate
|Oval Sun obscured by a concentric circle, except for at the edges of its major axis
|If the Sun were a grossly exagerated oblate (or prolate) spheroid, for any reason, the equatorial (or polar) bulge might extend significantly beyond the original limits of totality, or the narrower radii fall beneath the limits of the annular occlusion.
|-
|Interior
|Sun obscured at its edge by a thick ring, leaving its centre visible
|When an occluding object visibly larger than the Sun has a significant hole in the middle, only the rim of the Sun is blocked in the manner of an inverted annular eclipse.
|-
|Cuboid
|Sun obscured by a square cross-section
|In this example, the 'Moon' appears to be a cube, thus unable to "square the circle" of the solar disk. It must be perpendicularly orientated, as other twists of a true cubic (or cuboid) object might cause a rectangular or even hexagonal 'shadow'.
|-
|Transverse
|Obscuring circle drawn as a perpendicular plane intersecting the Sun on a centre-line
|This depicts the solar disc as two dimensional (and at an oblique angle) and the 'shadow' disc as a second 2d object somehow passing through the same space.
|-
|Saturnian
|Obscuring circle is given an oblique (shadow) ring system
|While it is theoretically possible that Saturn (and its rings) could eventually find itself in a position to cause a solar eclipse on Earth (and/or that Earth moves beyond Saturn, or that the Moon gains significant debris rings in its own right), this scenario isn't something we could see happening any time soon.
There are Saturnian moons that naturally travel behind their parent planet, but none that would ever see a near-Sun-sized Saturn doing so like this, and no human is yet in a position to directly see such an effect by any currently available means. However, probes sent to saturn have captured images[https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/news/13101/spectacular-eclipses-in-the-saturn-system/] of this type of eclipse
|-
|Hug
|Obscuring shape is pinched over at both sides by the respective overlapping edges of the Sun
|In this image it appears the Sun has extended its 'limbs' to affectionately hold the Moon, which might be problematic in several different ways.
|}

In all these images, the solar disc does not actually have a solid Moon in front of it, but a semi-transparent shadow, more typical of the representation of the Earth's solar shadow as it passes across the face of the Moon in a {{w|lunar eclipse}}. This may be an additional part of the humour.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Types of solar eclipse

Partial

Total

Annular

Oblate

Interior

Cuboid

Transverse

Saturnian

Hug

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Astronomy]]

2808: Daytime Firefly

2023-07-28T22:14:52Z

Whalepilot: add category

{{comic
| number = 2808
| date = July 28, 2023
| title = Daytime Firefly
| image = daytime_firefly_2x.png
| imagesize = 740x272px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Mr. Jones, watch out for Ms. Lenhart! She's from genus Photuris!
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Miss Lenhart]]

2807: Bad Map Projection: ABS(Longitude)

2023-07-28T04:40:35Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ combined place names

{{comic
| number = 2807
| date = July 26, 2023
| title = Bad Map Projection: ABS(Longitude)
| image = bad_map_projection_abs_longitude_2x.png
| imagesize = 740x822px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = Positive vibes/longitudes only
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

In this map, Randall has plotted the world map featuring all the landmasses from both western and eastern hemispheres. But the longitudes west of the prime meridian, normally given negative values from 0° to -180°, have been made positive using the "ABS()" function that gives the {{w|absolute value}} by effectively stripping off the minus sign from any value. This results in the features on one side of the world being overlaid upon those of the other side, but reversed.

Thanks to the relative sparsity of western continents (most prominently the Americas, but also roughly half of Antarctica, the westernmost parts of Europe and Africa, the easternmost part of Siberia, and multiple Pacific islands), and the landless expanses of the Pacific, this is surprisingly not too dissimilar to an east-only fragment of a world map. Just with the reversed 'new world' lands added to the usual extents of continents of Africa and Eurasia and the somewhat familiar notable Antarctic Peninsula being recognisable but in an odd position (and reversed) with no sign of the {{w|Ross Sea|Ross}} and {{w|Weddel Sea}}s (as eastern-Antarctic landmass takes precedence). Most continents can be traced out, but North America overlaps so much with Asia that most of its outlines are hidden.

Some features of the real world disappear, such as the English Channel, the North American Great Lakes, and the Strait of Gibraltar. The Arabian Sea becomes a lake as South America cuts it off from the rest of the Indian Ocean (Indian-Pacific Ocean?).

To further interest the map-connoisseur, various locations are marked and dotted upon their genuine or reflected positions. Putting into close proximity various locations that have (mainly) trans-Atlantic separation in reality. Some of these locations have been renamed in this projection by combining the names of newly overlapping locations. These are:

*The "Palk-Panama Canal", combining the {{W|Palk Strait}} between India and Sri Lanka with the Panama Canal in Central America.
*The "Congo-Amazon Rainforest", combining the world's two largest tropical rainforests, the {{w|Congo Rainforest|Congo}} in Africa and the {{w|Amazon Rainforest|Amazon}} in South America.
*The "Hudson Plain", combining {{w|Hudson Bay}} in North America with the {{w|West Siberian Plain}}.
*The "Kara-Baffin Sea", combining the {{w|Kara Sea}} to the north of Russia with {{w|Baffin Bay}} between Canada and Greenland.

Additionally in northern Siberia is the label "Franklin's Very Lost Expedition". {{w|Franklin's lost expedition}} was an attempt to find a passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific through the Arctic passage. Naturally a sea voyage ending up in the middle of a large landmass would be considered very lost.{{cn}}

The map has a few spelling errors, such as Reykjavík being misspelled as Reykjavic, and the Aleutian islands being misspelled as the Aelutian islands.

===Correct formula===
A correct formula to get only positive longitudes (0-360°) is:

:LONGITUDE=LONGITUDE+360*FLOOR(1-LONGITUDE/360)

This creates a Pacific centered world map.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[There is a map of the world with positive longitudes and negative longitudes overlapping. Caption above the map:]

:Bad Map Projection #152:
:Longitude=ABS(Longitude)
:Whoops, made all longitudes positive

:[The land masses are represented in white, and the oceans in light grey. Some capital cities, countries and geographical features are labeled.]

:[Near Siberia is indicated:]
:Franklin's ''very'' lost expedition

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Bad_Map_Projections]]

2803: Geohydrotypography

2023-07-19T15:19:14Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ discussion of the "ppm" initialism

{{comic
| number = 2803
| date = July 17, 2023
| title = Geohydrotypography
| image = geohydrotypography_2x.png
| imagesize = 339x389px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = The Atlantic is expanding at about 10 ppm (points per month).
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a LOGOGRAPHOTYPOHYDROGEOIST - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic is another entry in the "[[:Category:My_Hobby|My Hobby]]" series of comics.

{{w|Plate tectonics}} is the understanding that the Earth's lithosphere is divided up into separate 'plates', which carry the continents and (in the case of the Atlantic) are slowly moving apart under geological action that mostly drives the respective coastlines away from the deep centre of the ocean. Here, Randall explains that if the surface of the Atlantic Ocean were covered in a certain size of printed text (as if its surface were a giant sheet of printed paper, which it is not{{citation needed}}), the shifting of the continents would increase the amount of text by about 100 words per second.

[[Randall]] says that his hobby is geohydrotypography, which is a portmanteau of {{w|geology}}, {{w|hydrology}}, and {{w|typography}}. Basically, it means that his hobby is typing on rocks and ocean.

The title text reports the rate of the ocean's expansion, about 40 millimeters per year, in points per month. A point in typography is 1/72 of an inch, or 127/360 =~ 0.3528 millimeters. The expansion sideways would steadily allow more characters on the first line (and thus intermittently more words, 'unwrapping' the first word seen on the next line) and cascading this effect onto every subsequent line spread out vertically along the roughly 13,000km (depending upon your choice of limits) North/South 'height' of the writing medium.

The initialism PPM has {{w|PPM|many possible interpretations}} other than the fanciful "points per month". Two interpretations that would be relevant to the situation in the comic would be "parts per million" which can refer to the amount of a substance dissolved in water such as the oceans, and "pages per minute" which refers to the speed of printers.

The exact calculation needs various assumptions. Font families of a given well-defined vertical size/separation can each exhibit varying general widths of character, and be subject to various possible degrees of [[kerning]], depending upon what precise choice of text is made (unless using a strictly a fixed-width font). The spacing between successive lines would need to be chosen. The word that does (or does not) have to be wrapped at the first line-break can affect which groups of words may (or may not) need to wrap on subsequent lines, in a cascading effect that can create almost chaotic changes from just a single reassessment. However, the {{w|law of large numbers}} would likely minimize the effect of this variability, such that an estimate from known averages would yield a result with a very small amount of relative error.

The exact extent of the Atlantic Ocean can also be differently interpreted: where it meets the Southern and Arctic oceans, whether to include bordering 'seas' such as the Gulf of Mexico and Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas, what to do where the 'text' may have to cross/break-across islands (e.g., the Bahamas, Azores, etc., some of these being treated as Atlantic boundaries with the comic's relatively much larger size of "ocean text"), possibly even whether to track the precise tidal inundations at the coastlines at any particular moment. All these factors, and more, make it difficult to precisely define the total number of characters (and thus words) that would fit, though the annual increase in the approximate area of the ocean could allow us to assume some approximately greater number of characters (based upon an approximation of their average page-area requirements) which could be divided by the approximate number needed for a general corpus of words (and its spacing) to determine the approximate additional text that could now be added for any given span of time. Knowing Randall, he has used the best approximations that he could find and determined that the possible cumulative errors were not unacceptable.

Note that the text as it appears on the globe in the comic is not 12 point, but instead is close to 1.5 billion point.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[A depiction primarily of the Atlantic Ocean and the surrounding landmasses. The land is black, leaving the oceans and seas white except for the following words written in sixteen lines of text (from just below the tip of Greenland/Arctic Ocean down to slightly above the Falkland Islands/Southern Ocean) that are, for the most part, wrapped between the Atlantic coastline 'margins' (as defined by the Americas on the left and Europe/Africa on the right, or significant island groups:]

:If you
:covered
:the surface of
:the Atlantic Ocean
:with twelve-point
:printed text,
:with the lines
:wrapping at
:the coasts, the
:expansion of
:the ocean basin
:due to plate
:tectonics would
:increase your word
:count by about 100
:words per second.

:[Caption below the panel:]
:My Hobby: Geohydrotypography

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:My Hobby]]
[[Category:Maps]]
[[Category:Geology]]
[[Category:Language]]

2786: UFO Evidence

2023-06-09T02:17:03Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ add links to related comics

{{comic
| number = 2786
| date = June 7, 2023
| title = UFO Evidence
| image = ufo_evidence_2x.png
| imagesize = 340x422px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = [Decades in the future] "Well, the good news is that we've received definitive communication from aliens. The bad news is that they're asking about Cats (2019)."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an ANATOMICALLY INCORRECT CAT WITH A NEED THAT WILL NOT BE SATISFIED. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

[[White Hat]] (presumably a [[wikipedia:Ufology|ufologist]]) accuses [[Cueball]] of being unwilling to listen to his claims for extraterrestrial life. UFO stands for "unidentified flying object" but is used in common parlance to mean a spaceship carrying beings from another planet. The term "Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena" (''UAP'') has been more recently adopted in United States official investigations (that might wish not to be instantly associated with "little green men" and their "flying saucers") and was in the news during the weeks before this comic due to the coverage of official releases (and U.S. Senate hearings) regarding the official monitoring of observation reports. In these, various supposed sightings were given mundane explanations, while a few others were not but were generally considered insufficient proof of extraterrestrial visitations. A devout UFO-believer is likely to be somewhat disappointed by this, having more personal willingness to believe that the more ambiguous sightings are truly flying saucers. And possibly even that some or all of the 'explained' ones are being officially misinterpreted or misrepresented in a denialist manner for the government's/authorities' own purposes.

Cueball counters this common pushback by admitting that he once spent an entire day trying to confirm the existence of a version of [[wikipedia:Cats_(2019_film)|the 2019 film adaptation of ''Cats'']] which allegedly gave the eponymous anthropomorphic felines anatomically-correct rear ends.

The ''Cats'' movie was widely panned, in part because of the unappealing design of its CGI cat characters. On March 18, 2020, Twitter user @jackwaz claimed a friend of a friend had been hired as a VFX artist to "[https://www.avclub.com/world-unites-over-need-for-cats-producers-to-releaseth-1842396923 remove CGI buttholes]" from the digital cats, meaning that there was a version of the movie where the characters all had anatomically correct feline anuses depicted. This caused social media users to start petitioning for official confirmation of "the butthole cut," which Universal Studios has so far declined to acknowledge.

Cueball was apparently willing to lend enough credence to such an absurd and entirely inconsequential claim to spend time researching it. His suggestion is that if he was willing to invest that effort on the basis of such flimsy and meaningless evidence, the fact that he won't look in to White Hat's claims means that they must be even more worthless. The only reason why most scientists would reject such claims is a total lack of even faintly compelling evidence. As [[Cueball]] points out, if someone ever managed to present evidence of alien life that was even slightly plausible, many scientists would enthusiastically spend a great deal of time and effort trying to verify it, as in [[2359: Evidence of Alien Life]].

The comic probably pertains to U.S. Air Force veteran and former {{w|National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency}} member [https://www.newsnationnow.com/space/ufo/lawmakers-react-to-whistleblowers-ufo-claims/ David Grusch], who is seeking whistleblower status for his claims that the U.S. government is hiding crashed alien spacecraft and corpses.[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36216745] It continues a common XKCD theme of mocking dubious claims, including [[Alien Observers|UFOs]], [[Health Drink|pseudoscience]], [[The Economic Argument|paranormal phenomena]], and [[Conspiracy Theories]], which are presented without plausible or verifiable evidence. [[Randall]]'s general attitude toward these claims is that, if any of these things were true, we would expect evidence for them by now. Complaints that there is evidence, and scientists won't look at it are utterly implausible, because such evidence would be of enormous interest to scientists, if it had even a hint of being plausible.

The title text may refer to [https://phys.org/news/2015-01-aliens-tv.html the idea that aliens could be watching our old TV] (previously explored in [[1212: Interstellar Memes]]). Because radio and television signals travel at light speed, aliens light years away could theoretically receive earth entertainment years after it was originally broadcast. The idea that they are learning about us from ''Cats'', which is thought of as {{w|List of films considered the worst#Cats (2019)|one of our worst films of all time}}, is not the view of humanity either most people would want to present or most people would not want aliens to show extreme interest in. Especially since they might ask for the butthole cut....

==Transcript==
:[White Hat, with his finger raised, is talking to Cueball.]
:White Hat: You scientists aren't willing to take my UFO evidence seriously!
:Cueball: I once spent a whole day trying to confirm the existence of a director's cut of ''Cats'' (2019) where the cats had anatomically correct CGI butts.
:Cueball: It's honestly embarrassing how fast I'd do a 180 if your evidence seemed promising.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Fiction]]
[[Category:Aliens]]

2786: UFO Evidence

2023-06-07T18:55:52Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ explaining the title text

2759: Easily Confused Acronyms

2023-04-06T03:38:36Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ typo

{{comic
| number = 2759
| date = April 5, 2023
| title = Easily Confused Acronyms
| image = easily_confused_acronyms_2x.png
| imagesize = 557x444px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = 'Lever' was originally an acronym for Load Emplification by the Vimulated Emission of Radiation.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a RIGHT OMPLIFICATION BY THE BTIMULATED OMISSION OF TADIATION - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
In this comic, [[Randall]] compared the Acronym "Laser" with various other five-letter acronyms. He first explained the "Laser" and "Maser" correctly, but the following three are simply the full name of "Laser" with the first word and initials changed. The replacement first word is correct for these acronyms, but the other words formed from changing the first letter are nonsense.

{| class="wikitable" style="margin:auto"
!Acronym !! Comic !! Actual
|-
| {{w|LASER}} || Light Amplification by the Stimulated Emission of Radiation || Light Amplification by the Stimulated Emission of Radiation
|-
| {{w|MASER}} || Microwave Amplification by the Stimulated Emission of Radiation || Microwave Amplification by the Stimulated Emission of Radiation
|-
| {{w|SONAR}} || Sound Omplification by the Nimulated Emission of Radiation || SOund NAvigation and Ranging
|-
| {{w|RADAR}} || Radio Amplification by the Dimulated Amission of Radiation || RAdio Detection And Ranging
|-
| {{w|LIDAR}} || Light Implification by the Dimulated Amission of Radiation || LIght raDAR
|-
| {{w|LEVER}} (title text) || |Load Emplification by the Vimulated Emission of Radiation. || ''(not an acronym)''
|}

Laser and maser are true-to-life acronyms. The remaining 3 words' true meanings are as follows: sonar is short for "sound/sonic navigation and ranging", radar for "radio detection and ranging", lidar for "light detection and ranging". (Note that these 3 each include the second letter from their first word in the acronym.)

The three false definitions simply suppose that all 5 of the acronyms follow the same model and swap out the necessary letters to fit, in a square-peg-round-hole manner.

The title text extends this to the 5-letter word "lever". This is an ordinary word (derived from an Old French word ''levier'', which means "to lift"), not an acronym at all. Levers have been used since ancient times{{citation needed}}, and predates high-tech uses of radiation by millenia (it's one of the {{w|simple machines}} that {{w|Archimedes}} studied in Ancient Greece).

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
Easily-confused acronyms cheat sheet

Laser

Light Amplification by the Stimulated Emission of Radiation

Maser

Microwave Amplification by the Stimulated Emission of Radiation

Sonar

Sound Omplification by the Nimulated Emission of Radiation

Radar

Radio Amplification by the Dimulated Amission of Radiation

Lidar

Light Implification by the Dimulated Amission of Radiation

{{comic discussion}}

2619: Crêpe

2022-05-13T17:09:53Z

Whalepilot: dialects vary

{{comic
| number = 2619
| date = May 13, 2022
| title = Crêpe
| image = crepe.png
| titletext = A medicine that makes you put two dots over your letters more often is a diäretic.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a ÇRÊPË - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic is a play on the expression "Weird flex but OK" ([https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Weird%20flex%20but%20ok definition at Urban Dictionary]). [[Cueball]] has made a {{w|crêpe}}, a thin pancake known for its legendary status in French cuisine. When he says the word "crêpe," however, the {{w|circumflex}} above the "e" comes out odd. Instead of the usual simple angle (^), it looks more like a stubby capital A. [[Megan]], who can apparently see the text inside speech bubbles, comments on the odd shape with the appropriate pun.

In some dialects of English (e.g. British English), and in the original French pronunciation, "crêpe" is said such that the ê is pronounced as in "get", i.e. "cr-eh-p", but American English speakers pronounce it like an "A", i.e. "cr-ay-p", so drawing the circumflex like an "A" references how it would actually be pronounced by [[Cueball]] as an American English speaker.

The title text continues the wordplay by punning on {{w|diuretic}} (a substance promoting increased urine production), {{w|Diaeresis (diacritic)|diaeresis}} (a symbol in the form of two dots placed above a vowel), and {{w|diacritic}} (what both the circumflex and the diaeresis are).

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[Cueball is holding a plate with a crepe on it, conversing with Megan.]
:Cueball: Check out this crêpe I made!
:Megan: Weird circumflex, but okay.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Language]]
[[Category:Puns]]
[[Category:Food]]

2379: Probability Comparisons

2020-11-01T00:21:21Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ natural 20

{{comic
| number = 2379
| date = October 30, 2020
| title = Probability Comparisons
| image = probability comparisons new.png
| titletext = Call me, MAYBE.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by LEBRON JAMES THROWING M&Ms AT A KEYBOARD. The table for the explanations of the chances isn't complete, nor is the transcript. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This is a list of probabilities for different events. There are numerous recurring themes, of which the most common are free throws (13 entries), birthdays (12), dice (12, split about evenly between d6 and d20 types), M&M candies (11), playing cards (9), NBA basketball mid-game victory predictions (9), Scrabble tiles (7), coins (7), white Christmases (7), and the NBA players Stephen Curry and LeBron James (7 each).

Themes are variously repeated and combined, for humorous effect. For instance, there are entries for both the probability that St. Louis will have a white Christmas (21%) and that it will not (79%). Also given is the 40% probability that a random Scrabble tile will contain a letter from the name "Steph Curry".

There are 80 items in the list, the last two of which devolve into absurdity - perhaps from the stress of preparing the other 78 entries.

The list may be an attempt to better understand probabilistic election forecasts for the {{w|2020 United States presidential election}} which was less than a week away at the time this comic was published, and had also been aluded to in [[2370: Prediction]] and [[2371: Election Screen Time]]. Statistician and psephologist {{w|Nate Silver}} is referenced in one of the list items. On the date this cartoon was published, Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight.com was publishing forecast probabilities of Donald Trump and Joe Biden winning the US Presidential election. [[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/]]. On 31 October 2020, the forecast described the chances of Donald Trump winning as "roughly the same as the chance that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. It does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)" A day previously, when the chances were 12%, the website had also described Trump's chances of winning as "slightly less than a six sided die rolling a 1".

The probabilities are calculated from [https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/ these sources], as mentioned in the bottom left corner.

{| class="wikitable sortable"
! Odds
! Text
! Explanation
|-
| 0.01%
| You guess the last four digits of someone's {{w|Social Security Number}} on the first try
| There are 10 digits in a Social Security Number. (1/10)4 = 0.0001, or 0.01%
|-
| 0.1%
| Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed
| The chances of being left handed is about 10%, and 10%3 = 0.1%.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.2%
| You draw 2 random {{w|Scrabble}} tiles and get M and M
| This appears to be an error. Under standard English {{w|Scrabble letter distribution}} there are 100 tiles of which 2 are M. This would give a probability of randomly drawing M and M as 2/100 × 1/99 ≈ 0.02%. However, other language editions of Scrabble have different letter distributions, some of which could allow this to be true.
|-
| You draw 3 random {{w|M&Ms}} and they're all red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 . 0.131^3 ≈ 0.225%; 0.125^3 ≈ 0.177% .
|-
| 0.3%
| You guess someone's birthday in one try.
| 1/365 ≈ 0.27%.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.5%
| An {{w|NBA}} team down by 30 at halftime wins
|
|-
| You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of them that is brown or yellow is either 0.25 or 0.259 . 0.25^4≈ 0.39%; 0.259^4 ≈ 0.45% .
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1%
| {{w|Steph Curry}} gets two free throws and misses both
|
|-
|{{w|LeBron James}} guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses
|
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1.5%
| You get two M&Ms and they're both red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 . 0.131^2 ≈ 1.7%; 0.125^2 ≈ 1.6% .
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|Backstreet Boys|Backstreet Boy}}
|Each of the five Backstreet Boys has a different birthday, so the odds that you share a birthday with one is 5/365.25 ≈ 1.3% .
|-
| 2%
| You guess someone's card on the first try
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), which is approximately 0.019 (2%).
|-
| rowspan="2"| 3%
| You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right
| The chance of correctly predicting a coin toss is 0.5. The chance of predicting 5 in a row is 0.5^5, or 3.125%.
|
|-
| Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 4%
| You sweep a 3-game {{w|rock paper scissors}} series
| Picking randomly, you have a 1 in 3 chance of beating an opponent on the first try. (1/3)3 = 1/27 ≈ 4% .
|-
| {{w|Portland, Oregon}} has a {{w|White Christmas (weather)|white Christmas}}
|
|-
| You share a birthday with two {{w|US Senator}}s
| At the time this comic was published, 9 days were birthdays for more than one Senator. Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY) and John Thune (R-SD) were both born January 7. Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and Angus King (I-MN) were both born March 31. Sens. Jim Risch (R-ID), Ron Wyden (D-OR) and David Vitter (R-LA) were all born May 3. Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) were both born June 22. Sens. Bob Corker (R-TN) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) were both born August 24. Sens. Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Joe Donnelly (D-IA) were both born September 29. Sens. Mike Rounds (R-SD) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR) were both born October 24. Sens. Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Jim Inhofe (R-OK) were both born November 17. Sens. John Boozman (R-AR) and David Perdue (R-GA) were both born December 10.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 5%
| An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins
|
|-
| You roll a natural 20
| A natural 20 indicates a critical hit in the {{w|Dungeons & Dragons}} role playing game. "Natural" means that it is the number showing when rolling a d20 (a 20-sided die), as opposed to an overall total of 20 when counting the die roll plus modifiers. There are twenty sides to a d20 die. 1/20 = 0.05 = 5%
|
|-
| 6%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries
| Picking a random card within 3 times gives 1 - (51/52)(50/51)(49/50) ≈ 6% .
|
|-
| 7%
| LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both
|
|-
| 8%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries
| Assuming you guess four different cards, 4/52 = 0.0769 ≈ 8% .
|
|-
| 9%
| Steph Curry misses a free throw
|
|-
| rowspan="2"|10%
| You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), and the Ace of Spades is one of them. The chances of getting the card is 1 - 51/52 * 50/51 * 49/50 * 48/49 * 47/48 which is approximately 0.096, which rounds to the given 10%. 
|-
| There's a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8+ earthquake in the next month
|
|-
| 11%
| You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series
| You have a 1/3 chance of winning the first comparison, and a 1/3 chance of winning the second. (1/3) * (1/3) = 1/9 ~ 0.11 = 11% .
|
|-
| rowspan="3"|12%
| A randomly-chosen American lives in {{w|California}}
| California is the most populous state in the U.S.A. Out of the approximately 328.2 million Americans (as of 2019), 39.51 million live in California. This means that a randomly chosen American has about a 39.51/328.2 ≈ 10.33% of being in California. Due to population change and rounding based on different sources, this could be pushed to 12%.
|
|-
| You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries
|
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|US President}}
| Presidents {{w|James Polk}} and {{w|Warren Harding}} share a birthday, and are the only presidents so far (in 2020) to do so, giving the odds of sharing a birthday as 44/365 ≈ 12% .
|-
| rowspan="3"|13%
| A {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d6}} beats a {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d20}}
| The odds of a d6 beating a d20 are (0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5)/(120) = 0.125 ≈ 13% .
|-
| An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
|
|-
| You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 .
|-
| 14%
| A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a D6 die roll
| {{w|Scrabble}} is a game in which you place lettered tiles to form words. Most of the scores per letter are 1, making it rare to beat a d6. The odds are (70/100)(0) + (7/100)(1/6) + (8/100)(2/6) + (10/100)(3/6) + (1/100)(4/6) + (4/100)(6/6) ≈ 14% .
|-
| 15%
| You roll a D20 and get at least 18
| The set of "at least 18" on a d20 is 18, 19, and 20. The odds of rolling one of these is 3/20 = 15% .
|-
| 16%
| Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one
|
|-
| 17%
| You roll a D6 die and get a 6
| The odds are 1/6 ≈ 17% .
|-
| 18%
| A D6 beats or ties a D20
| The odds are (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6)/(120) ≈ 18% .
|-
| 19%
| At least one person in a random pair is left-handed
| The chances of being left handed is about 10%, so the probability of both people in the pair not being left-handed is 0.92=0.81, and 1-0.81=0.19.
|-
| 20%
| You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown
|
|-
| 21%
| {{w|St. Louis}} has a white Christmas
|
|-
| 22%
| An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 23%
| You get an M&M and it's blue
|
|-
| You share a birthday with a US senator
|
|-
| 24%
| You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter
| The winter lasts ~24% of the year, so ~24% of birthdays are in the winter.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 25%
| You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall
| The fall lasts ~25% of the year, so ~25% of birthdays are in the fall. This statement would also have been true for spring.
|-
| You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.
| An M&M can land on one of two sides, one with an M and one without. The odds of "rolling" two Ms is 1/4 = 25%. The term "rolling" is used jokingly in reference to the d6s and d20s above, suggesting that an M&M is a standard d2; this becomes especially true once you consider that a more accurate reference would have been two a coin, not a die.
|-
| 26%
| You correctly guess someone was born in the summer
| The summer lasts ~26% of the year, so ~26% of birthdays are in the summer.
|-
| 27%
| LeBron James misses a free throw
|
|-
| 32%
| {{w|Pittsburgh}} has a white Christmas
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 33%
| A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title
| Episodes II (Attack of the Clones), III (Revenge of the Sith), and VI (Return of the Jedi) are the movies. This gives the odds of 3/9 ≈ 33% .
|-
| You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch
| The {{w|Monty Hall problem}} is a counterintuitive logic problem, in which you pick one of three doors at random. One of the doors has a car behind it, so the odds that you picked the door are 1/3 ≈ 33%. Thus, by not switching doors, your odds remain the same. The Monty Hall problem has previously appeared in [[1282: Monty Hall]] and [[1492: Dress Color]].
|-
| You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly
| The odds of beating an opponent on the first try by picking randomly is 1/3 ≈ 33% .
|-
| 34%
| You draw five cards and get an ace
| The odds are 1 - (48/52)(47/51)(46/50)(45/49)(44/48) ≈ 34% .
|-
| 35%
| A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in "random"
| The odds of drawing a letter in "random" are (6 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 8 + 2)/100 = 35% .
|-
| 39%
| LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one
|
|-
| 40%
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Steph Curry"
| The odds of drawing a letter in "Steph Curry" are (4 + 6 + 12 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 4 + 6 + 2)/100 = 40% .
|-
| 46%
| There's a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years
|
|-
| rowspan="2"|48%
| {{w|Milwaukee}} has a white Christmas
|
|-
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen
| The odds of a Scrabble tile being in her name are (2 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 2 + 12 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 6)/100 = 48% .
|-
| 50%
| You get heads in a coin toss
| There are two options in a coin toss, heads or tails, so the odds of getting heads is 50% (1/2).
|-
| 53%
| {{w|Salt Lake City}} has a white Christmas
|
|-
| 54%
| LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both
|
|-
| 58%
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Nate Silver"
| {{w|Nate Silver}} is a recurring person on xkcd. The odds of a Scrabble tile being in his name are (6 + 9 + 6 + 12 + 4 + 9 + 4 + 2 + 6)/100 = 58% .
|-
| 60%
| You get two M&Ms and neither is blue
|
|-
| 65%
| {{w|Burlington, Vermont}} has a white Christmas
|
|-
| 66%
| A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice
| The titles are:
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Fellowship '''of the''' Ring''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Two Towers''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Return '''of the''' King''
All of them have “of the” at least once, in “The Lord of the Rings”, but only the first and third have it twice, and 2/3 ≈ 66%. This number typically rounds up to 67% , however, and it is unclear why it is not, given that the same reduced fraction is written in the 67% category below.
|-
| 67%
| You roll at least a 3 with a d6
| The set of "at least 3" on a d6 refers to 3, 4, 5, and 6. The odds are 4/6 ≈ 67%.
|-
| 71%
| A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll
| This is a typo, as the correct probability is at the 14% entry. A random (d6) die roll beats a random Scrabble tile 71% of the time. [[Randall]] probably meant to write '''A random d6 dice roll''' beats '''a random Scrabble tile'''.
|-
| 73%
| LeBron James makes a free throw
|
|-
| 75%
| You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the "M" up so it's clear they're not Skittles
| The odds of at least one 'M' showing up is 1 - (1/4) = 75% . The reference to {{w|Skittles}} is that the two candies look similar to one another, and Randall has probably bit into a Skittle thinking it was an M&M, or vice versa. This trick might prevent that from happening in the future.
|-
| 76%
| You get two M&Ms and neither is red
|
|-
| 77%
| You get an an M&M and it's not blue
|
|-
| 78%
| An NBA team wins when they're up 10 at halftime
|
|-
| 79%
| St. Louis doesn't have a white Christmas
|
|-
| 81%
| Two random people are both right-handed
|
|-
| 83%
| Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both
|
|-
| 85%
| You roll a d20 and get at least a 4
| The set "at least 4" on a d20 refers to 4, 5, 6... 18, 19, 20. The odds of this are 17/20 = 85% .
|-
| rowspan="2"| 87%
| An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
|-
| Someone fails to guess your card given 7 tries
|
|-
| 88%
| A randomly chosen American lives outside California
|
|-
| 89%
| You roll a 3 or higher given two tries
|
|-
| 90%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries
| Assuming they guess five different cards, there are 47 unguessed cards left. 47/52 = 0.90385 ~ 90%
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 91%
| You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August
| The odds of someone being born in August are ~9% , so the odds that a person was not born in August is ~91% .
|-
| Steph Curry makes a free throw
|
|-
| 92%
| You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong
| On average, a month lasts ~8% of the year. Thus, if you were to guess someone's birth month at random, you would be wrong ~92% of the time.
|-
| 93%
| Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries
|
|-
| 94%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries
| The odds of this happening are (51/52)(50/51)(49/50) ≈ 94% .
|-
| 95%
| An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime
|
|-
| 96%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries
| The odds of this happening are (51/52)(50/51) ≈ 96% .
|-
| 97%
| You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail
| The odds of this happening are 1 - (1/2)5 ≈ 97% .
|-
| 98%
| You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week
| The odds of this happening are about 51.14/52.14 ≈ 98% .
|-
| 98.5%
| An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins
|
|-
| 99%
| Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries
|
|-
| 99.5%
| An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins
|
|-
| 99.7%
| You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong
| The odds of this are 364.25/365.25 ≈ 99.7% .
|-
| 99.8%
| There's not a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 quake in {{w|California}} next year
|
|-
| 99.9%
| A random group of three people contains a right-hander
|
|-
| 99.99%
| You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number
| The odds of this are 1 - (1/10)4 = 99.99% .
|-
| 99.9999999999999995%
| You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 earthquake in {{w|California}}!" and are wrong
|
|-
| 0.00000001%
| You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up
| The odds of this are 1 - (1/10)10 = 0.00000001% .
|}

The title text refers to the song {{w|Call Me Maybe}} by Carly Rae Jepsen (cited twice in the list). "MAYBE" is emphasized perhaps because the probability of getting her phone number correct, as in the last item in the list, is very low. The capitalization could also be a reference to Scrabble tiles as was previously mentioned in association with Carly Rae Jepsen.

==Trivia==
In the original comic, "outside" in the 88% probability section is spelled incorrectly as "outide". In addition, the 39% section had "two free throw" instead of "throws".

The (seemingly unimportant) odds of LeBron James' versus Stephen Curry's free throws and names in Scrabble refer to [[2002: LeBron James and Stephen Curry]].

==Transcript==
Probability Comparisons

0.01% You guess the last four digits of someone's social security number on the first try

0.1% Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed

0.2% You draw 2 random Scrabble tiles and get M and M

You draw 3 random M&Ms and they're all red

0.3% You guess someone's birthday in one try.

0.5% An NBA team down by 30 at halftime wins

You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow

1% Steph Curry gets two free throws and misses both

LeBron James guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses

1.5% You get two M&Ms and they're both red

You share a birthday with a Backstreet Boy

2% You guess someone's card on the first try

3% You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right

Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game

4% You sweep a 3-game rock paper scissors series

Portland, Oregon has a white Christmas

You share a birthday with two US Senators

5% An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins

You roll a natural 20

6% You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries

7% LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both

8% You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries

9% Steph Curry misses a free throw

10% You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades

There's a magnitude 8+ earthquake in the next month

11% You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series

12% A randomly-chosen American lives in California

You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries

You share a birthday with a US President

13% A d6 beats a d20

An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins

You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red

14% A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a d6 die roll

15% You roll a d20 and get at least 18

16% Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one

17% You roll a d6 die and get a 6

18% A d6 beats or ties a d20

19% At least one person in a random pair is left-handed

20% You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown

21% St. Louis has a white Christmas

22% An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime

23% You get an M&M and it's blue

You share a birthday with a US senator

24% You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter

25% You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall

You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.

26% You correctly guess someone was born in the summer

27% LeBron James misses a free throw

32% Pittsburgh has a white Christmas

33% A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title

You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch

You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly

34% You draw five cards and get an ace

35% A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in "random"

39% LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one

40% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Steph Curry"

46% There's a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years

48% Milwaukee has a white Christmas

A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen

50% You get heads in a coin toss

53% Salt Lake City has a white Christmas

54% LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both

58% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Nate Silver"

60% You get two M&Ms and neither is blue

65% Burlington, Vermont has a white Christmas

66% A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice

67% You roll at least a 3 with a d6

71% A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll

73% LeBron James makes a free throw

75% You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the "M" up so it's clear they're not Skittles

76% You get two M&Ms and neither is red

77% You get an an M&M and it's not blue

78% An NBA team wins when they're up 10 at halftime

79% St. Louis doesn't have a white Christmas

81% Two random people are both right-handed

83% Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both

85% You roll a d20 and get at least a 4

87% An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4th quarter wins

Someone fails to guess your card given 7 tries

88% A randomly chosen American lives outside California

89% You roll a 3 or higher given two tries

90% Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries

91% You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August

Steph Curry makes a free throw

92% You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong

93% Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries

94% Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries

95% An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime

96% Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries

97% You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail

98% You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week

98.5% An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins

99% Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries

99.5% An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins

99.7% You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong

99.8% There's not a magnitude 8 quake in California next year

99.9% A random group of three people contains a right-hander

99.99% You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number

99.9999999999999995% You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a magnitude 8 earthquake in California!" and are wrong

0.00000001% You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up

'''PROBABILITY COMPARISONS'''

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]]

2379: Probability Comparisons

2020-11-01T00:10:18Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ monty hall

{{comic
| number = 2379
| date = October 30, 2020
| title = Probability Comparisons
| image = probability comparisons new.png
| titletext = Call me, MAYBE.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by LEBRON JAMES THROWING M&Ms AT A KEYBOARD. The table for the explanations of the chances isn't complete, nor is the transcript. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This is a list of probabilities for different events. There are numerous recurring themes, of which the most common are free throws (13 entries), birthdays (12), dice (12, split about evenly between d6 and d20 types), M&M candies (11), playing cards (9), NBA basketball mid-game victory predictions (9), Scrabble tiles (7), coins (7), white Christmases (7), and the NBA players Stephen Curry and LeBron James (7 each).

Themes are variously repeated and combined, for humorous effect. For instance, there are entries for both the probability that St. Louis will have a white Christmas (21%) and that it will not (79%). Also given is the 40% probability that a random Scrabble tile will contain a letter from the name "Steph Curry".

There are 80 items in the list, the last two of which devolve into absurdity - perhaps from the stress of preparing the other 78 entries.

The list may be an attempt to better understand probabilistic election forecasts for the {{w|2020 United States presidential election}} which was less than a week away at the time this comic was published, and had also been aluded to in [[2370: Prediction]] and [[2371: Election Screen Time]]. Statistician and psephologist {{w|Nate Silver}} is referenced in one of the list items. On the date this cartoon was published, Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight.com was publishing forecast probabilities of Donald Trump and Joe Biden winning the US Presidential election. [[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/]]. On 31 October 2020, the forecast described the chances of Donald Trump winning as "roughly the same as the chance that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. It does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)" A day previously, when the chances were 12%, the website had also described Trump's chances of winning as "slightly less than a six sided die rolling a 1".

The probabilities are calculated from [https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/ these sources], as mentioned in the bottom left corner.

{| class="wikitable sortable"
! Odds
! Text
! Explanation
|-
| 0.01%
| You guess the last four digits of someone's {{w|Social Security Number}} on the first try
| There are 10 digits in a Social Security Number. (1/10)4 = 0.0001, or 0.01%
|-
| 0.1%
| Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed
| The chances of being left handed is about 10%, and 10%3 = 0.1%.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.2%
| You draw 2 random {{w|Scrabble}} tiles and get M and M
| This appears to be an error. Under standard English {{w|Scrabble letter distribution}} there are 100 tiles of which 2 are M. This would give a probability of randomly drawing M and M as 2/100 × 1/99 ≈ 0.02%. However, other language editions of Scrabble have different letter distributions, some of which could allow this to be true.
|-
| You draw 3 random {{w|M&Ms}} and they're all red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 . 0.131^3 ≈ 0.225%; 0.125^3 ≈ 0.177% .
|-
| 0.3%
| You guess someone's birthday in one try.
| 1/365 ≈ 0.27%.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.5%
| An {{w|NBA}} team down by 30 at halftime wins
|
|-
| You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of them that is brown or yellow is either 0.25 or 0.259 . 0.25^4≈ 0.39%; 0.259^4 ≈ 0.45% .
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1%
| {{w|Steph Curry}} gets two free throws and misses both
|
|-
|{{w|LeBron James}} guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses
|
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1.5%
| You get two M&Ms and they're both red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 . 0.131^2 ≈ 1.7%; 0.125^2 ≈ 1.6% .
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|Backstreet Boys|Backstreet Boy}}
|Each of the five Backstreet Boys has a different birthday, so the odds that you share a birthday with one is 5/365.25 ≈ 1.3% .
|-
| 2%
| You guess someone's card on the first try
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), which is approximately 0.019 (2%).
|-
| rowspan="2"| 3%
| You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right
| The chance of correctly predicting a coin toss is 0.5. The chance of predicting 5 in a row is 0.5^5, or 3.125%.
|
|-
| Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 4%
| You sweep a 3-game {{w|rock paper scissors}} series
| Picking randomly, you have a 1 in 3 chance of beating an opponent on the first try. (1/3)3 = 1/27 ≈ 4% .
|-
| {{w|Portland, Oregon}} has a {{w|White Christmas (weather)|white Christmas}}
|
|-
| You share a birthday with two {{w|US Senator}}s
| At the time this comic was published, 9 days were birthdays for more than one Senator. Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY) and John Thune (R-SD) were both born January 7. Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and Angus King (I-MN) were both born March 31. Sens. Jim Risch (R-ID), Ron Wyden (D-OR) and David Vitter (R-LA) were all born May 3. Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) were both born June 22. Sens. Bob Corker (R-TN) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) were both born August 24. Sens. Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Joe Donnelly (D-IA) were both born September 29. Sens. Mike Rounds (R-SD) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR) were both born October 24. Sens. Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Jim Inhofe (R-OK) were both born November 17. Sens. John Boozman (R-AR) and David Perdue (R-GA) were both born December 10.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 5%
| An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins
|
|-
| You roll a natural 20
| There are twenty sides to a d20 die. 1/20 = 0.05 = 5%
|
|-
| 6%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries
| Picking a random card within 3 times gives 1 - (51/52)(50/51)(49/50) ≈ 6% .
|
|-
| 7%
| LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both
|
|-
| 8%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries
| Assuming you guess four different cards, 4/52 = 0.0769 ≈ 8% .
|
|-
| 9%
| Steph Curry misses a free throw
|
|-
| rowspan="2"|10%
| You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), and the Ace of Spades is one of them. The chances of getting the card is 1 - 51/52 * 50/51 * 49/50 * 48/49 * 47/48 which is approximately 0.096, which rounds to the given 10%. 
|-
| There's a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8+ earthquake in the next month
|
|-
| 11%
| You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series
| You have a 1/3 chance of winning the first comparison, and a 1/3 chance of winning the second. (1/3) * (1/3) = 1/9 ~ 0.11 = 11% .
|
|-
| rowspan="3"|12%
| A randomly-chosen American lives in {{w|California}}
| California is the most populous state in the U.S.A. Out of the approximately 328.2 million Americans (as of 2019), 39.51 million live in California. This means that a randomly chosen American has about a 39.51/328.2 ≈ 10.33% of being in California. Due to population change and rounding based on different sources, this could be pushed to 12%.
|
|-
| You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries
|
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|US President}}
| Presidents {{w|James Polk}} and {{w|Warren Harding}} share a birthday, and are the only presidents so far (in 2020) to do so, giving the odds of sharing a birthday as 44/365 ≈ 12% .
|-
| rowspan="3"|13%
| A {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d6}} beats a {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d20}}
| The odds of a d6 beating a d20 are (0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5)/(120) = 0.125 ≈ 13% .
|-
| An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
|
|-
| You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 .
|-
| 14%
| A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a D6 die roll
| {{w|Scrabble}} is a game in which you place lettered tiles to form words. Most of the scores per letter are 1, making it rare to beat a d6. The odds are (70/100)(0) + (7/100)(1/6) + (8/100)(2/6) + (10/100)(3/6) + (1/100)(4/6) + (4/100)(6/6) ≈ 14% .
|-
| 15%
| You roll a D20 and get at least 18
| The set of "at least 18" on a d20 is 18, 19, and 20. The odds of rolling one of these is 3/20 = 15% .
|-
| 16%
| Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one
|
|-
| 17%
| You roll a D6 die and get a 6
| The odds are 1/6 ≈ 17% .
|-
| 18%
| A D6 beats or ties a D20
| The odds are (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6)/(120) ≈ 18% .
|-
| 19%
| At least one person in a random pair is left-handed
| The chances of being left handed is about 10%, so the probability of both people in the pair not being left-handed is 0.92=0.81, and 1-0.81=0.19.
|-
| 20%
| You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown
|
|-
| 21%
| {{w|St. Louis}} has a white Christmas
|
|-
| 22%
| An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 23%
| You get an M&M and it's blue
|
|-
| You share a birthday with a US senator
|
|-
| 24%
| You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter
| The winter lasts ~24% of the year, so ~24% of birthdays are in the winter.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 25%
| You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall
| The fall lasts ~25% of the year, so ~25% of birthdays are in the fall. This statement would also have been true for spring.
|-
| You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.
| An M&M can land on one of two sides, one with an M and one without. The odds of "rolling" two Ms is 1/4 = 25%. The term "rolling" is used jokingly in reference to the d6s and d20s above, suggesting that an M&M is a standard d2; this becomes especially true once you consider that a more accurate reference would have been two a coin, not a die.
|-
| 26%
| You correctly guess someone was born in the summer
| The summer lasts ~26% of the year, so ~26% of birthdays are in the summer.
|-
| 27%
| LeBron James misses a free throw
|
|-
| 32%
| {{w|Pittsburgh}} has a white Christmas
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 33%
| A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title
| Episodes II (Attack of the Clones), III (Revenge of the Sith), and VI (Return of the Jedi) are the movies. This gives the odds of 3/9 ≈ 33% .
|-
| You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch
| The {{w|Monty Hall problem}} is a counterintuitive logic problem, in which you pick one of three doors at random. One of the doors has a car behind it, so the odds that you picked the door are 1/3 ≈ 33%. Thus, by not switching doors, your odds remain the same. The Monty Hall problem has previously appeared in [[1282: Monty Hall]] and [[1492: Dress Color]].
|-
| You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly
| The odds of beating an opponent on the first try by picking randomly is 1/3 ≈ 33% .
|-
| 34%
| You draw five cards and get an ace
| The odds are 1 - (48/52)(47/51)(46/50)(45/49)(44/48) ≈ 34% .
|-
| 35%
| A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in "random"
| The odds of drawing a letter in "random" are (6 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 8 + 2)/100 = 35% .
|-
| 39%
| LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one
|
|-
| 40%
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Steph Curry"
| The odds of drawing a letter in "Steph Curry" are (4 + 6 + 12 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 4 + 6 + 2)/100 = 40% .
|-
| 46%
| There's a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years
|
|-
| rowspan="2"|48%
| {{w|Milwaukee}} has a white Christmas
|
|-
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen
| The odds of a Scrabble tile being in her name are (2 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 2 + 12 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 6)/100 = 48% .
|-
| 50%
| You get heads in a coin toss
| There are two options in a coin toss, heads or tails, so the odds of getting heads is 50% (1/2).
|-
| 53%
| {{w|Salt Lake City}} has a white Christmas
|
|-
| 54%
| LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both
|
|-
| 58%
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Nate Silver"
| {{w|Nate Silver}} is a recurring person on xkcd. The odds of a Scrabble tile being in his name are (6 + 9 + 6 + 12 + 4 + 9 + 4 + 2 + 6)/100 = 58% .
|-
| 60%
| You get two M&Ms and neither is blue
|
|-
| 65%
| {{w|Burlington, Vermont}} has a white Christmas
|
|-
| 66%
| A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice
| The titles are:
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Fellowship '''of the''' Ring''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Two Towers''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Return '''of the''' King''
All of them have “of the” at least once, in “The Lord of the Rings”, but only the first and third have it twice, and 2/3 ≈ 66%. This number typically rounds up to 67% , however, and it is unclear why it is not, given that the same reduced fraction is written in the 67% category below.
|-
| 67%
| You roll at least a 3 with a d6
| The set of "at least 3" on a d6 refers to 3, 4, 5, and 6. The odds are 4/6 ≈ 67%.
|-
| 71%
| A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll
| This is a typo, as the correct probability is at the 14% entry. A random (d6) die roll beats a random Scrabble tile 71% of the time. [[Randall]] probably meant to write '''A random d6 dice roll''' beats '''a random Scrabble tile'''.
|-
| 73%
| LeBron James makes a free throw
|
|-
| 75%
| You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the "M" up so it's clear they're not Skittles
| The odds of at least one 'M' showing up is 1 - (1/4) = 75% . The reference to {{w|Skittles}} is that the two candies look similar to one another, and Randall has probably bit into a Skittle thinking it was an M&M, or vice versa. This trick might prevent that from happening in the future.
|-
| 76%
| You get two M&Ms and neither is red
|
|-
| 77%
| You get an an M&M and it's not blue
|
|-
| 78%
| An NBA team wins when they're up 10 at halftime
|
|-
| 79%
| St. Louis doesn't have a white Christmas
|
|-
| 81%
| Two random people are both right-handed
|
|-
| 83%
| Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both
|
|-
| 85%
| You roll a d20 and get at least a 4
| The set "at least 4" on a d20 refers to 4, 5, 6... 18, 19, 20. The odds of this are 17/20 = 85% .
|-
| rowspan="2"| 87%
| An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
|-
| Someone fails to guess your card given 7 tries
|
|-
| 88%
| A randomly chosen American lives outside California
|
|-
| 89%
| You roll a 3 or higher given two tries
|
|-
| 90%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries
| Assuming they guess five different cards, there are 47 unguessed cards left. 47/52 = 0.90385 ~ 90%
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 91%
| You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August
| The odds of someone being born in August are ~9% , so the odds that a person was not born in August is ~91% .
|-
| Steph Curry makes a free throw
|
|-
| 92%
| You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong
| On average, a month lasts ~8% of the year. Thus, if you were to guess someone's birth month at random, you would be wrong ~92% of the time.
|-
| 93%
| Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries
|
|-
| 94%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries
| The odds of this happening are (51/52)(50/51)(49/50) ≈ 94% .
|-
| 95%
| An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime
|
|-
| 96%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries
| The odds of this happening are (51/52)(50/51) ≈ 96% .
|-
| 97%
| You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail
| The odds of this happening are 1 - (1/2)5 ≈ 97% .
|-
| 98%
| You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week
| The odds of this happening are about 51.14/52.14 ≈ 98% .
|-
| 98.5%
| An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins
|
|-
| 99%
| Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries
|
|-
| 99.5%
| An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins
|
|-
| 99.7%
| You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong
| The odds of this are 364.25/365.25 ≈ 99.7% .
|-
| 99.8%
| There's not a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 quake in {{w|California}} next year
|
|-
| 99.9%
| A random group of three people contains a right-hander
|
|-
| 99.99%
| You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number
| The odds of this are 1 - (1/10)4 = 99.99% .
|-
| 99.9999999999999995%
| You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 earthquake in {{w|California}}!" and are wrong
|
|-
| 0.00000001%
| You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up
| The odds of this are 1 - (1/10)10 = 0.00000001% .
|}

The title text refers to the song {{w|Call Me Maybe}} by Carly Rae Jepsen (cited twice in the list). "MAYBE" is emphasized perhaps because the probability of getting her phone number correct, as in the last item in the list, is very low. The capitalization could also be a reference to Scrabble tiles as was previously mentioned in association with Carly Rae Jepsen.

==Trivia==
In the original comic, "outside" in the 88% probability section is spelled incorrectly as "outide". In addition, the 39% section had "two free throw" instead of "throws".

The (seemingly unimportant) odds of LeBron James' versus Stephen Curry's free throws and names in Scrabble refer to [[2002: LeBron James and Stephen Curry]].

==Transcript==
Probability Comparisons

0.01% You guess the last four digits of someone's social security number on the first try

0.1% Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed

0.2% You draw 2 random Scrabble tiles and get M and M

You draw 3 random M&Ms and they're all red

0.3% You guess someone's birthday in one try.

0.5% An NBA team down by 30 at halftime wins

You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow

1% Steph Curry gets two free throws and misses both

LeBron James guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses

1.5% You get two M&Ms and they're both red

You share a birthday with a Backstreet Boy

2% You guess someone's card on the first try

3% You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right

Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game

4% You sweep a 3-game rock paper scissors series

Portland, Oregon has a white Christmas

You share a birthday with two US Senators

5% An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins

You roll a natural 20

6% You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries

7% LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both

8% You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries

9% Steph Curry misses a free throw

10% You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades

There's a magnitude 8+ earthquake in the next month

11% You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series

12% A randomly-chosen American lives in California

You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries

You share a birthday with a US President

13% A d6 beats a d20

An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins

You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red

14% A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a d6 die roll

15% You roll a d20 and get at least 18

16% Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one

17% You roll a d6 die and get a 6

18% A d6 beats or ties a d20

19% At least one person in a random pair is left-handed

20% You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown

21% St. Louis has a white Christmas

22% An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime

23% You get an M&M and it's blue

You share a birthday with a US senator

24% You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter

25% You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall

You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.

26% You correctly guess someone was born in the summer

27% LeBron James misses a free throw

32% Pittsburgh has a white Christmas

33% A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title

You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch

You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly

34% You draw five cards and get an ace

35% A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in "random"

39% LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one

40% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Steph Curry"

46% There's a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years

48% Milwaukee has a white Christmas

A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen

50% You get heads in a coin toss

53% Salt Lake City has a white Christmas

54% LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both

58% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Nate Silver"

60% You get two M&Ms and neither is blue

65% Burlington, Vermont has a white Christmas

66% A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice

67% You roll at least a 3 with a d6

71% A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll

73% LeBron James makes a free throw

75% You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the "M" up so it's clear they're not Skittles

76% You get two M&Ms and neither is red

77% You get an an M&M and it's not blue

78% An NBA team wins when they're up 10 at halftime

79% St. Louis doesn't have a white Christmas

81% Two random people are both right-handed

83% Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both

85% You roll a d20 and get at least a 4

87% An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4th quarter wins

Someone fails to guess your card given 7 tries

88% A randomly chosen American lives outside California

89% You roll a 3 or higher given two tries

90% Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries

91% You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August

Steph Curry makes a free throw

92% You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong

93% Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries

94% Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries

95% An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime

96% Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries

97% You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail

98% You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week

98.5% An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins

99% Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries

99.5% An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins

99.7% You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong

99.8% There's not a magnitude 8 quake in California next year

99.9% A random group of three people contains a right-hander

99.99% You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number

99.9999999999999995% You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a magnitude 8 earthquake in California!" and are wrong

0.00000001% You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up

'''PROBABILITY COMPARISONS'''

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]]

2379: Probability Comparisons

2020-10-31T17:54:21Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ scrabble tile M and M explanation

2379: Probability Comparisons

2020-10-31T17:30:38Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ add 2020 election reference

2372: Dialect Quiz

2020-10-17T11:00:00Z

Whalepilot: /* Explanation */ gift as a verb

{{comic
| number = 2372
| date = October 14, 2020
| title = Dialect Quiz
| image = dialect_quiz.png
| titletext = Do you make a distinction between shallots, scallops, and scallions? If you use all three words, do they all have different meanings, all the same, or are two the same and one different?
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a LIGHTBULB EATER and Delaware Line painter. Poll results should be added into the Trivia section. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic is a parody of online quizzes that offer to compare the user's dialect of American English with others around the country. These quizzes generally contain questions about word usage, names for certain objects, and pronunciations that vary between different regions of the US. There are also quizzes about broader English dialects, but this comic focuses on commonly cited differences between American dialects.

The earliest quiz of this type to be widely disseminated online was the [http://dialect.redlog.net/ Harvard Dialect Survey], conducted in the early 2000s by Bert Vaux and Scott Golder. The survey created maps of the distribution of various word usage (such as pop/soda/Coke for a fizzy drink) and was a relatively early example of widely shared Internet "viral" content. In 2013, Josh Katz of the New York Times created [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/dialect-quiz-map.html a new version] based on the Harvard survey, which became the Times' [https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/01/-em-the-new-york-times-em-most-popular-story-of-2013-was-not-an-article/283167/ most popular content of 2013] and spread the idea to many more people. Many of the questions in this comic directly derive from entries in those surveys.

Randall's previous two comics have been about election predictions, leading up to the 2020 US General Presidential Election. A prominent predictor of the election results is Nate Silver, who runs the FiveThirtyEight website. [https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315348221565206530 @NateSilver538 posted his results] of taking the New York Times version of the survey on October 11, 2020... just three days before this comic was posted. [[2371: Election Screen Time]] specifically suggests that Randall may be spending too much time obsessing over new posts and content from the election predictors. It's coincidental, but likely, that Nate Silver's tweet inspired Randall's post: he was reminded of the 2013 feature from the Times.

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
! # !! Question !! Answers !! Explanation
|-
! 1
|How do you address a group of two or more people?
|style="width: 15%;"|
* A) You
* B) Y'all
* C) I have not been around two or more people for so long that I can't remember
| Reference to the first question of the Times quiz: "How would you address {{w|You#Informal_plural_forms|a group of two or more people}}?" (with options including "you all", "you guys", "y'all", etc.). Option C may reference the significant decrease in human interaction and social contact during the COVID-19 pandemic. Alternatively, it may suggest that some xkcd readers are particularly introverted.
|-
! 2
| How do you pronounce "Penelope"?
|
* A) Rhymes with "Antelope"
* B) Rhymes with "Develop"
| Both the options for this are wrong, making it the first of many quiz questions it is impossible to answer correctly.

Neither Option A's "PEN-e-lohp" /ˈpɛnɪˌloʊp/ and Option B's "pe-NELL-up" /pɪˈnɛləp/ are a typical pronunciation of this name (beyond mispronunciations). In English, the only correct way to pronounce this name is "pe-NELL-o-pee" /pəˈnɛləpi/, which is not listed.
|-
! 3
| What do you call the scientific field that studies the stars?
|
* A) Astrology
* B) Agronomy
* C) Cosmetology
| The actual answer is {{w|astronomy}}, which is not listed, though several answers ''are'' listed that sound similar to fields that study stars. {{w|Astrology}} is the pseudo-scientific "study" of the influence of the stars and planets on our lives, including horoscopes, {{w|agronomy}} ''is'' scientific but instead studies agriculture, and {{w|cosmetology}} is the study of cosmetics and makeup (with a name close to {{w|cosmology}}, a branch of astronomy). The last may also be referring to the occasionally makeup-heavy faces of movie and television "stars".
|-
! 4
| How do you pronounce "genre"?
|
* A) Gone-ra
* B) Juh-neer
* C) Jen-er-uh
| Reference to a question found on some quizzes: "How do you pronounce ''genre''? ZHAHN-ruh, or JAHN-ruh?"

A majority of (American) English speakers pronounce "genre" as either "'''ZH'''AHN-ruh" /ˈʒɑnrə/ (beginning with the "zh" sound found in "trea'''s'''ure") or "'''J'''AHN-ruh" /ˈdʒɑnrə/ (beginning with the "j" sound in "justice"). Neither of these are listed, and none of the quiz's pronunciation options are common. However, they are close to other words: ''GONE-ra'' /ˈgɑnrə/ sounds like {{w|gonorrhea}} /ˌgɑnəˈriə/, ''juh-NEER'' /dʒəˈnɪər/ is the way the second and third syllables of ''engineer'' are are pronounced, and ''JEN-er-uh'' /ˈdʒɛnərə/ is a word (genera), the plural of {{w|genus}}.
|-
! 5
| You pronounce "Google" with a high-pitched yelp on the...
|
* A) First syllable
* B) Second syllable
| "Google" is not generally pronounced with a high-pitched yelp on either syllable. On the other hand, {{w|Yahoo!}}, a competitor of Google, has advertised its services with a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fm5FE0x9eY0 high-pitched yodeling jingle], with the high-pitched yelp on the second syllable (as opposed to {{w|Goofy}}'s [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-70mtXw35c iconic holler], with the high yelp on the first syllable).
|-
! 6
| What do you call the thing on the wall at school that you drink water from?
|
* A) Gutter pipe
* B) Drainpipe
| Reference to a quiz question in the Harvard and Times quizzes, "What do you call the thing from which you might drink water in a school?" Answers included "drinking fountain", "water fountain", and "bubbler". However, the question in this comic implies that school children (or at least the quiz maker) drink out of {{w|Rain gutter|gutter pipes}} or drain pipes, which are used to collect rainwater and/or {{w|sewage|should absolutely not be drunk from.}}
|-
! 7
| How do you pronounce the name for a short silent video file?
|
* A) Animated give
* B) Animated gift
| Reference to the "{{w|Gif}}" pronunciation debate, with people split between pronouncing it "gif" (with the hard-G sound in "graphics") or "jif" (with the soft-G sound in "giraffe"). Both options presented in this quiz use the hard-G sound, but neither option uses the standard pronunciation for the ending of the word, “if”.

Both options refute the “jif” argument that a "g" followed by an "i" can result in a “j” sound, as in "giraffe" or "gin". Most people would agree that "give" and "gift" (and a fish's "gill", "girth", "girl", ...) use the hard G.

The most authoritative pronouncement is actually that of the original authors of the standard, who clarified they intended it to be said as if "jif". Maybe it is entirely appropriate that their product, which lacks any audio stream, was made known to most of its end-users without a sound-guide and left everyone to spontaneously derive their own way of voicing its name.

Also a reference to [https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/gift-as-a-verb how some people dislike the use of the word "gift" as a verb, and think that "give" should be used instead].
|-
! 8
| What do you call the baseball-sized garden bugs that, when poked, glow brightly and emit a warbling scream?
|
* A) What?
* B) Lawn buddies
| There are many different varieties of common insects with distinctive traits and behaviors, some of which even have multiple names; the (as-of-yet undiscovered) "lawn buddies" combine three of these traits into one peculiar and somewhat frightening creature.

1. The Harvard and Times quizzes actually include the question: "What do you call the {{w|Armadillidiidae|small gray bug}} that curls up into a ball when it’s touched?" (options include "roly-poly," "pill-bug", "potato bug", "doodle bug", etc.).

It is also worth mentioning that "potato bug" itself can refer to three completely different kinds of insect; besides the aforementioned "{{w|Armadillidiidae|small gray bug}}," it can also refer to the {{w|Colorado potato beetle}} or to the {{w|Jerusalem cricket}}. A dialect quiz such as this one might ask the quiz-taker to identify what kind of insect they associate the term with.

2. The {{w|Firefly|Lampyridae}} family of insects do glow (although not exactly "brightly"). These insects emit their light spontaneously, as a mating signal, though they often do emit light when shaken or presumably poked. These are variously called "fireflies," "glowworms," or "lightning bugs;" a dialect quiz might reasonably ask the quiz-taker's preferred term.

3. {{w|cicada|Cicadas}} and {{w|Madagascar_hissing_cockroach|cockroaches}} can be large for insects, though nothing approaching the size of a baseball, and can make very loud noises indeed, although it would be a bit of a stretch to describe any of their associated sounds as a "warbling scream."
|-
! 9
| What do you call the misleading lines painted by disgruntled highway workers to trick cars into driving off the road?
|
* A) Prank lines
* B) Devil's Marks
* C) Fool-me lines
* D) Fauxguides
* E) Delaware lines
| Reference to the fact that some quiz questions ask about road features, such as "verge/berm/parking strip/curb strip" and "roundabout/traffic circle/rotary". However, these particular road lines, if they have ever been made, aren't common enough to warrant different names. The Delaware Line was a formation within the Continental Army. Devil's Marks may be a takeoff of [https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Devil%27s%20Strip Devil's Strip].

Misleading lines on the road were also mentioned in [[1958: Self-Driving Issues]].
|-
! 10
| What do you call the blue-green planet in the outer Solar System?
|
* A) Uranus
* B) Neptune
| This question references the fact that Uranus and Neptune are quite similar in appearance, as well as the two common pronunciations of Uranus: "YURR-ə-nəss" and "yoo-RAY-nəss" (which sounds like the phrase "{{tvtropes|UranusIsShowing|your anus}}", a favorite joke of little kids). The original pronunciation is "oo-ra-noos", both u's pronounced the same way, but this is not a common pronunciation among the general public. It also references the fact that Uranus and Neptune are both blue-ish colored planets in the outer solar system and are often confused by people who don't know much about them. Uranus is closer to being the correct answer - it could plausibly be described as cyan, a color intermediate between blue and green - while Neptune is a deep, unambiguous blue.
|-
! 11
| What do you call this tool?
[[File:CloveHammer.png|150px]] (image of a claw hammer)
|
* A) Banger
* B) Nail axe
* C) Wood mage wand
* D) I'm familiar with this tool but have no specific word for it
* E) I have never seen it before
| The only name most people would ever call this tool is a "hammer".

The last two options reference options in many quiz questions along the lines of "I'm familiar with this but have no specific word for it" and "I am not familiar with this" (such as on the pill-bug/roly-poly question on the real quiz). These may appear as options to questions that ask about something that might not exist everywhere, or something which many may not have a word for (for example, some areas of the United States have a name for "sunshowers," while most don't). However, it's a bit absurd for these options to be present for this question (and this question alone), as virtually all users in an English dialect test would be expected to know what a hammer is. This also serves as a bit of reverse perspective on the saying, "{{w|Law of the instrument|When the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.}}"
|-
! 12
| What do you call a long sandwich with meats and lettuce and stuff?
|
* A) A long sandwich with meats and lettuce and stuff
* B) A longwich
* C) A salad hot dog
| Reference to a common dialect quiz question: "What do you call a {{w|Submarine sandwich|long sandwich}}?" with options typically including "sub", "hoagie", "hero", etc.

The hot dog answer could refer to the common online discussion: "Is a hot dog a sandwich?"
|-
! 13
| What do you call the scaly many-legged animal often found in attics?
|
* A) Lightbulb eater
* B) I have no special name for them
* C) I've never looked in my attic
| Another reference to the frequent appearance of quiz questions asking what users call various creepy crawlies.

{{w|Millipedes}} best fit the description. They have many legs, though rarely if ever a thousand of them, as their name (from the Latin word for "thousand feet") suggests. The hard rings that separate an individual's body into segments give the animal a scaly appearance. And of the thousands of species, only a few have common names, hence "no special name for them". The reference to "lightbulb eater" is obscure, but may refer to the tendency of millipedes to congregate in large numbers in dark crevices, or perhaps Randall is simply conjuring more frightening creatures. Perhaps Randall found some in empty (no bulb) light fixtures in his attic.

Or maybe it is just the sort of spooky monster that lives in the dark and makes you afraid to check the attic (or basement).

Normally, questions about uncommon things would include an "I've never seen one" option, like option E in the hammer question. Instead, this question has "I've never looked in my attic" as an option, implying that these creatures are present in all attics, and anyone who doesn't know them is either unaware of the monster dwelling in their own attic or too afraid to go look.
|-
! 14
| What do you say when someone around you sneezes?
|
* A) "What was that?"
* B) "Oh, wow."
* C) [Quietly] "Yikes."
| Reference to a question on some quizzes about which of several words/phrases you say in response to a sneeze, with usual answers including "bless you", "God bless you", and "{{w|Gesundheit}}" (from the German word for 'health').

This question may also be referencing the {{w|COVID-19 pandemic}} in answer C (and possibly answer B). Sneezing isn't a primary symptom of COVID-19, but most people are hyper-aware of possibly contracting the disease from the people around them so sneezes are treated with suspicion and it's seen as rude to sneeze openly.

It is also possible that a person who has been able to catch a sneeze-producing condition has also caught COVID-19 and, while the sneeze itself isn't ''caused'' by it, the air and various airway fluids so forcefully projected are a possible infective vector with that little extra frisson of concern, given the current situation.
|-
! Title Text
| colspan=2 | Do you make a distinction between shallots, scallops, and scallions? If you use all three words, do they all have different meanings, all the same, or are two the same and one different?
| Phrased similarly to questions like one on the Times quiz, "How do you pronounce the words Mary, merry, and marry?" Options included "all three are pronounced the same", "all three are pronounced differently," or all three combinations of two being the same and one different. Also refers to the naming confusion around {{w|scallions}} and {{w|shallots}} - also known as 'eschalots' - but with the unrelated but similar-sounding {{w|scallops}} substituted in the middle.

'Shallots', 'scallions' and 'eschalots' are names used in different dialects, for various species and cultivars of onion used in cooking, either as a small bulb (especially [[wikipedia:shallot|Allium cepa var. Aggregatum]]) or as a long green leaf (especially [[wikipedia:Allium_fistulosum|Allium fistulosum]]). In many dialects, the green leaf type is called a 'scallion' and the bulb a 'shallot'. In at least one dialect (NSW Australia) the green leaf type is called a 'shallot' and the bulb an 'eschalot'. This causes confusion in recipes posted online. The word 'shallot' is also pronounced with emphasis on either the first or second syllable, as referred to in question 5. Despite the answer options offered, there is no evidence of dialects which use all three terms, or where 'shallot' and 'scallion' are interchangeable.

{{w|Scallops}} are invertebrate marine animals similar to oysters and clams, frequently harvested for food. In some regions of the UK and Australia potato {{w|fritters}} are also called 'scallops'. The word 'scallop' itself can be pronounced either as /ˈskɒləp/ or /ˈskæləp/, and its spelling has varied over time in a similar way to that of 'shallot'. However, these are difficult to confuse with shallots or scallions.
|}

==Transcript==

[Box with title at the top]
:<big>Dialect Quiz</big>
[Smaller subtitle underneath]
:Compare answers with your friends!

[Quiz is divided into two columns. Answers to questions are indicated by a letter followed by a closed parentheses, such as A). These letters are greyed out]

[Column 1:]
 
How do you address a group of two or more people?
:A) You
:B) Y'all
:C) I have not been around two or more people for so long that I can't remember

How do you pronounce "Penelope"?
:A) Rhymes with "Antelope"
:B) Rhymes with "Develop"

What do you call the scientific field that studies the stars?
:A) Astrology
:B) Agronomy
:C) Cosmetology

How do you pronounce "genre"?
:A) Gone-ra
:B) Juh-neer
:C) Jen-er-uh

You pronounce "Google" with a high-pitched yelp on the...
:A) First syllable
:B) Second syllable

What do you call the thing on the wall at school that you drink water from?
:A) Gutter pipe
:B) Drainpipe

How do you pronounce the name for a short silent video file?
:A) Animated give
:B) Animated gift

What do you call the baseball-sized garden bugs that, when poked, glow brightly and emit a warbling scream?
:A) What?
:B) Lawn buddies

[Column 2:]
 
What do you call the misleading lines painted by disgruntled highway workers to trick cars into driving off the road?
:A) Prank lines
:B) Devil's Marks
:C) Fool-me lines
:D) Fauxguides
:E) Delaware lines

What do you call the blue-green planet in the outer Solar System?
:A) Uranus
:B) Neptune

What do you call this tool?
 
[Image of a claw hammer]
:A) Banger
:B) Nail axe
:C) Wood mage wand
:D) I'm familiar with this tool but have no specific word for it
:E) I have never seen it before

What do you call a long sandwich with meats and lettuce and stuff?
:A) A long sandwich with meats and lettuce and stuff
:B) A longwich
:C) A salad hot dog

What do you call the scaly many-legged animal often found in attics?
:A) Lightbulb eater
:B) I have no special name for them
:C) I've never looked in my attic

What do you say when someone around you sneezes?
:A) "What was that?"
:B) "Oh, wow."
:C) [Quietly] "Yikes."

==Trivia==

*The xkcd Twitter account posted a [https://twitter.com/xkcd/status/1316484953480323072 series of Twitter polls] asking the questions in this comic.
**How do you address a group of two or more people?
***You (31.2%)
***Y'all (33.5%)
***'''Can’t remember anymore (35.3%)'''
**How do you pronounce “Penelope”?
***'''Rhymes with “antelope” (58.6%)'''
***Rhymes with “develop” (41.4%)
**What do you call the scientific field that studies the stars?
***Astrology (34.5%)
***Agronomy (18.5%)
***'''Cosmetology (47%)'''
**How do you pronounce "genre"?
***Gone-ra (24.7%)
***Juh-neer (18.8%)
***'''Jen-er-uh (56.5%)'''
**Do you pronounce "Google" with a high-pitched yelp on the...
***'''First syllable (63.6%)'''
***Second syllable (36.4%)
**What do you call the thing on the wall at school that you drink water from?
***Gutter pipe (32.9%)
***'''Drainpipe (67.1%)'''
**How do you pronounce the name for a short silent video file?
***Animated give (29.6%)
***'''Animated gift (70.4%)'''
**What do you call the baseball-sized garden bugs that, when poked, glow brightly and emit a warbling scream?
***What? (48.6%)
***'''Lawn buddies (51.4%)'''
**What do you call the misleading lines painted by disgruntled highway workers to trick cars into driving off the road?
***Prank/fool-me lines (14.8%)
***Devil's marks (22%)
***Fauxguides (22.5%)
***'''Delaware lines (40.6%)'''
**What do you call the blue-green planet in the outer solar system?
***'''Uranus (51.7%)'''
***Neptune (48.3%)
**What do you call this tool? 🔨
***'''Banger (29.7%)'''
***Nail axe (22%)
***Wood mage wand (29.1%)
***Don't know/not familiar (19.2%)
**What do you call a long sandwich with meats and lettuce and stuff?
***'''That description verbatim (43.1%)'''
***A longwich (33.2%)
***A salad hot dog (23.7%)
**What do you call the scaly many-legged animal often found in attics?
***Lightbulb eater (29.5%)
***Don't have a name for it (19%)
***'''Never looked in my attic (51.5%)'''
**What do you say when someone around you sneezes?
***"What was that?" (8.6%)
***"Oh, wow." (17.1%)
***'''[quietly] "Yikes." (74.3%)'''
*Shallots, scallops, and scallions ran against each other in [[1529: Bracket]]

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Language]]
[[Category:COVID-19]]