https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/api.php?action=feedcontributions&user=199.27.128.62&feedformat=atomexplain xkcd - User contributions [en]2024-03-28T21:19:40ZUser contributionsMediaWiki 1.30.0https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1591:_Bell%27s_Theorem&diff=1035171591: Bell's Theorem2015-10-17T03:29:35Z<p>199.27.128.62: Can we please restrict explaining xkcd pages to people who are, at the very least, not dumb?</p>
<hr />
<div>{{comic<br />
| number = 1591<br />
| date = October 16, 2015<br />
| title = Bell's Theorem<br />
| image = bells_theorem.png<br />
| titletext = The no-communication theorem states that no communication about the no-communication theorem can clear up the misunderstanding quickly enough to allow faster-than-light signaling.<br />
}}<br />
<br />
==Explanation==<br />
{{incomplete|Title Text - Where does "turning off the signal" come in to the explanation of the title text? Still missing lots of wiki links in the entire explanation.}}<br />
<br />
{{w|Bell's Theorem|Bell's Theorem}} states "No physical theory of (finitely many) local hidden variables can ever reproduce all of the predictions of quantum mechanics." It says that a theoretical treatment that divides the universe up into separate ("local") systems like this will always discard something about those systems' intercorrelations.<br />
<br />
'Global hidden variables' are another story: if there is classical information shared across systems (perhaps by superliminal communication) even up to superdeterminism where the universe is just reading off a script, any correlations can be explained away. But this is unsatisfying.<br />
<br />
The prefered resolution of the paradox is to not insist (as early physicists did) that the universe's state is a collection of bits (classical information), but treat it as a collection of qubits (quantum information).<br />
<br />
Ponytail begins reading Bell's theorem to Cueball, who is standing 5 meters away. Cueball responds with a misunderstanding of Bell's Theorem in 1 nanosecond. The speed of light in a vacuum is 299,792,458 meters per second. In one nanosecond, the light from Ponytail would only have traveled 0.299 meters, thus Cueball misunderstands Bell's Theorem faster than the light from Ponytail reading the Theorem can reach him, which implies that faster-than-light communication occurred to set up the misunderstanding.<br />
<br />
===More===<br />
In quantum mechanics (QM), 'measurement' is the process of allowing a small system to interact with its environment in a controlled way. The interaction allows information about the system's state to escape to the environment, producing an 'observation'. If the measurement apparatus is governed by classical mechanics (impossible in reality, but a very common simplification for the purposes of calculation), then the observation can be thought of as classical information, a bit (yes/no answer) in the simplest case. While the system may have been in any one of infinitely many states before the measurement (each a superposition of classical states), the fact that the measurement must leave it consistent with the classical result means that it can end up in only finitely many states afterwards. This is the 'wave-function collapse' of early QM, popularized by Schrodinger's cat, but unrelated to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, which lay audiences often confuse it with.<br />
<br />
Modern quantum mechanics acknowledges that the environment is not classical, and that wave-function collapse happens by a (comparatively) gradual process called 'decoherence', where information leaving the system is made up for by information coming from the environment that drives the system closer and closer to one of the finitely many state predicted by the simplified model above. (I.e., if a "Schrodinger's cat" is in a half-and-half superposition of the states "dead" and "alive", when its liveness is measured, the ratios of "dead" and "alive" will shift rapidly towards (though not quite reach) 0 and 100% or 100 and 0%. For all but the shortest time scales, the cat's post-measurement state might as well be classical.)<br />
<br />
Entanglement is a situation where the future outcomes of two or more measurements that would be independent in a classical world are nonetheless correlated. For example, two widely separated electrons could be in a state where, considered individually, each is in a superimposed spin-up/spin-down state, but if one is measured as spin-up, the others will necessarily be measured as spin-down. This is untroubling if the two electrons are modeled as a single system, but strange-seeming if we think of them as separate: how did the measurement of the first electron allow information from the environment around it affect the far-away second electron? It seems like the electrons are communicating, potentially at superliminal speeds, which would violate either relativity or causality. (In actuality, there's a fairly simple proof<sup>[citation needed]</sup> that correlations from entanglement can't be used to communicate, and causality and relativity are safe. But that doesn't make the seemingly faster-than-light effects much less of a surprise.)<br />
<br />
One can try to address these concerns by considering 'local hidden variables', classical properties of a local system (like a single electron) that could have been observed but were not. For example, perhaps a classical part of the electrons' state lets them "agree" on a future classical state at the moment the are entangled, and then they just reveal that state in the future. But this becomes unwieldy: there are infinitely many possible future observations the electrons would have to agree on, and it seems difficult to do this without infinitely many local hidden variables.<br />
<br />
===Title Text===<br />
The real No-Communication Theorem states that although determination of the state of one half of an entangled pair immediately determines that of the other half, however far away it may be, there's no way for the observer of the other half to see if he's the first to find out the state or whether it'd already been determined by the first observer. Thus, no information travels from one observer to the other. Randall's version is recursive. It hypothesises a method of communication whereby somebody misunderstanding the no-communication theorem (which also happens faster than the speed of light) could function as the reception of a faster-than-light signal. However, it goes on to point out that turning the signal off requires clearing up the confusion which takes much, much longer, thus neatly restoring the normality of slower than light communication.<br />
<br />
==Transcript==<br />
[First frame captioned: t = 0 nanoseconds]<br/><br />
Ponytail, holding a piece of paper and facing to the right: This is called Bell's Theorem. It was first&ndash;<br />
<br />
[A double-headed arrow links the characters in the two frames. The arrow is labelled "5 meters".]<br />
<br />
[Second frame captioned: t = 1 nanosecond]<br/><br />
Cueball, facing to the left towards Ponytail: Wow, faster-than-light communication is possible!<br />
<br />
Caption: Bell's Second Theorem: Misunderstandings of Bell's Theorem happen so fast that they violate locality.<br />
<br />
<br />
{{comic discussion}}<br />
<br />
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]<br />
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]<br />
[[Category:Physics]]<br />
[[Category:Science]]</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=887:_Future_Timeline&diff=83383887: Future Timeline2015-01-24T09:19:00Z<p>199.27.128.62: /* The predictions */</p>
<hr />
<div>{{comic<br />
| number = 887<br />
| date = April 18, 2011<br />
| title = Future Timeline<br />
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]<br />
| image = future timeline.png<br />
| titletext = Not shown: the approximately 30,000 identical, vaguely hysterical articles titled "WHITE PEOPLE IN [THE US/BRITAIN] TO BECOME MINORITY BY [YEAR]!", which came up for basically any year I put in.<br />
}}<br />
<br />
==Explanation==<br />
{{incomplete|Predictions table needs filling out.}}<br />
This comic uses the same strategy as comic [[715: Numbers]], in which Randall uses Google to search for phrases and then charts the results. This one is charted as a timeline, whereas 715 was charted as line graphs.<br />
<br />
"2101 - War Was Beginning" is a reference to the opening narration of video game ''Zero Wing''; the same narration is famous for the internet meme "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}". As there are not any other out and out references in the comic, and the rest are actually results that you can find using Randall's methods (though "War Was Beginning" most likely came up when he googled 2101 as well).<br />
<br />
Certain events in this comic, e.g. "Social Security stops running surplus", are repeated multiple times. Also, certain bizarre events, like "Apocalypse occurs", or "Flying cars reach market", happen before rather plausible things, like "HTML 5 Finished". Certain events, like "Japan is a robot-only country" or "Gillette introduces 14-blade razor" may be related to the recurring theme [[605: Extrapolating]].<br />
<br />
The title text is born of a recurring "white people panic" situation; scaremongers will predict white minority in the very near future in order to get the panicked racist people to pay attention to them (without actually using valid or accepted scientific measurements to back up these claims- panicked racist people don't exactly fact-check very much), while level-headed sociologists will usually come up with more distant, if not nonexistent, dates from their extrapolations.<br />
<br />
This comic has similar features to [[1413: Suddenly Popular]], [[1093: Forget]], and [[891: Movie Ages]].<br />
<br />
===Accuracy===<br />
====2012-2014====<br />
The only predictions for this period that came true are that the world population has surpassed 7 billion and that US combat troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan. Canada formally withdrew from the Kyoto protocol in December 2011, and its emissions in 2012 were 18% ''above'' 1990 levels (though its population had grown 26% and its GDP had grown 67% in that period). and sadly, homelessness is still a problem in Massachusetts. The prediction about GNU/Linux Operating Systems is ambiguous, as Android (based on Linux) constitutes nearly 50% of the mobile OS market and the system dominates among mainframes and some kinds of servers. On the other hand, Linux is a non-presence as an OS for desktop computers. And so far as we're aware, the apocalypse is yet to occur.<br />
<br />
====2015-2016====<br />
{{w|New Horizons}} is to make its closest approach to Pluto in July of 2015.<ref>http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/news_center/news/20140715.php</ref> It was never intended to ''land'' on Pluto.<br />
<br />
{{w|Android OS}}' market share was already 84.4% as of the third quarter of 2014, showing that both estimates were overly conservative.<ref>http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp</ref> {{w|Windows Phone}} continued to have less than 30% of {{w|iOS}}' market share.<br />
<br />
==The predictions==<br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Year<br />
! Prediction<br />
! Further Details<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="4"| 2012<br />
| World population<br />
| Ever since the advent of modern medicine and the more efficient agricultural processes developed suit the Industrial Revolution, the human population had been growing at an unprecedented rate. This has caused some people to worry about overpopulation, which would cause a scarcity of resources and overcrowding, and propose various solutions, most of which involve some form of eugenics. 7 billion is a landmark number because it is a multiple of 1 billion. <br />
|-<br />
| Flying cars<br />
| For decades, flying cars have been a staple of futuristic sci-fi and technological predictions. So far none of these predictions, which to tend to hover around 5–10 years from whatever the current date is, have come true.<br />
|-<br />
| Canada cuts greenhouse emissions<br />
| Currently, the Earth is experiencing an unprecedented period of warming we call global warming, caused in part by greenhouse emissions, which are gases that help trap heat in the atmosphere. Countries have repeatedly gotten together and promised to stop emitting greenhouse gases, but so far they have failed to meet their targets. Canada withdrew<br />
|-<br />
| Apocalypse occurs<br />
| The end of a cycle of the Mayan calendar on December 22, 2012 has been used in popular culture as a basis for predicting the end of the world. Amongst other things, this included the film '2012'. Some people took this rather more seriously, and actually believed that the world would end on this date. It didn't.<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="4"| 2013<br />
| National debt paid off<br />
| For years, the subject of national debt has been a political point of contention, with the Republicans typically favoring paying it all off, and the Democrats more willing to spend to pull the country out of recessions in the economy. Clinton, a Democrat, at one point proposed [http://money.cnn.com/1999/06/28/economy/clinton/ paying off the debt by 2015].<br />
|-<br />
| Microchipping Americans<br />
| Microchips are small computer chips, typically embedded in pets in case they get lost, that contain information about the pet. Some, more irrational, people worry about the government microchipping everyone in an effort to monitor their activities.<br />
|-<br />
| Homelessness ended in MA<br />
| In 2008, the Commission To End Homelessness in Massachusetts, under Governor Deval Patrick, proposed a plan to all but eliminate homelessness over the next five years (hence the 2013 end-date on the comic).<br />
|-<br />
| Health care reform law repealed<br />
| A health care reform law, popularly known as Obamacare, was signed into law in 2010. Ever since, many Republicans have tried (in vain) to repeal it, disliking the idea that government should provide and require healthcare.<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2014<br />
| US leaves Afghanistan<br />
| After the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11, 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan, which at the time allegedly hosted the headquarters of al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization behind the attacks. The war has gone on since then, with the public growing increasingly tired of it. Public support now favors a withdrawal, but for military and logistical reasons, the government cannot simply move all the troops currently in Afghanistan home right now. For one, that would cause immediate chaos in the country. Therefore, the government instead promises to eventually withdraw all troops, planning on doing so by the end of 2014.<br />
|-<br />
| GNU/Linux dominant OS<br />
| An operating system, or OS, is the software that forms the structure in which applications on you computer function. Some typical OSs include Mac OSX, Windows 8, and Linux. The first two of those three are commercial products, sold as a copy by a company. The last is an open-source OS, one that anyone can download and modify free. Typically, open-source software is used by a small number of socially conscious people. It is therefore unrealistic to predict that it will become mainstream in the near future.<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2015<br />
| New Horizon reaches Pluto<br />
| The New Horizon spacecraft is a U.S. space mission designed to go to Pluto and take photographs, collect samples, etc. It is scheduled to reach Pluto in 2015.<br />
|-<br />
| Healthcare law causes hyperinflation<br />
| The National Inflation Association warns that the [http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/healthcare-bill-to-cause-us-hyperinflation-by-2015-88711032.html Healthcare Bill to Cause U.S. Hyperinflation By 2015]<br />
|-<br />
| Millennium development goals achieved<br />
| {{w|Millennium Development Goals}}<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2016<br />
| Baby boomers begin turning 65<br />
| {{w|Baby boomers}} are individuals conceived in the years following World War Two, roughly defined as those born from 1946-1959. This isn't so much a prediction as basic math; if you were born in 1946, you turned 65 in 2011.<br />
|-<br />
| Android takes 38%/45% of market share<br />
| {{w|Android (operating system|Android}} is a popular operating system for smartphones and tablets, created by Google. Market share is the percentage of all devices that use the product, in this case the Android operating system. These entries together are humorous because they cannot both happen at the same time.<br />
|-<br />
| Windows phone overtakes iOS<br />
| {{w|iOS}} is the operating system used by Apple iPhones. At the time of the comic, Apple's mobile OS is much more popular than Microsoft's. The article Randall found predicts that the tables will turn.<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="5"| 2017<br />
| China completes lunar mission<br />
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.<br />
|-<br />
| Social Security stops running surplus<br />
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}<br />
|-<br />
| US budget balanced<br />
| The {{w|United States federal budget}} outlines how much the US government spends on what in a given fiscal year. The budget is not required to be balanced, and so often more money is spent than is earned in revenue, causing the national debt to rise.<br />
|-<br />
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out<br />
| The increasing popularity of internet media and mobile devices has caused a steady decline in the popularity of print media.<br />
|-<br />
| Cosmetic surgery doubles<br />
| {{w|Cosmetic Surgery}}<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2018<br />
| Social Security stops running surplus<br />
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}<br />
|-<br />
| Jesus returns to Earth<br />
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the second coming, the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible itself says that "no man can know the date". Several predicted dates have come and gone.<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2019<br />
| Social Security stops running surplus<br />
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}<br />
|-<br />
| Every baby has genes mapped at birth<br />
| {{w|Gene Mapping}}<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2020<br />
| Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels<br />
| Scientists estimate that more than half of the {{w|fossil fuels}} in existance have already been found and that fossil fuel production will begin to decline due to the scarcity, causing prices to increase. At the same time, improvements in {{w|Solar Power|solar technology}} are causing the prices for solar energy to steadily decrease.<br />
|-<br />
| Keyboards and mice become obsolete<br />
| {{w|Computer input device}} are beginning to adopt other methods of input, such as voice commands, touch screens, and eye tracking. While the use of touch screens in particular is gaining widespread use, as of 2014 none has come close to making keyboards and mice obsolete. None of them allows text input as fast as a keyboard, and none is suitable for writing program code.<br />
|-<br />
| New Tappan Zee bridge constructed<br />
| A {{w|Tappan_Zee_Bridge#Replacement_bridge|replacement bridge}} was anounced in 2008 and is expected to be completed in 2018.<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="4"| 2021<br />
| US debt reaches 97% of GDP<br />
| {{w|US Debt}}<br />
|-<br />
| US unemployment falls to 2.8%<br />
| {{w|Unemployment in the United States}}<br />
|-<br />
| Restored caliphate unifies Middle East<br />
| A {{w|caliphate}} is a form of {{w|Islam|Islamic}} political-religious leadership, centred around a Caliph, or successor to the prophet {{w|Muhammad}}.<br />
|-<br />
| Lake Mead evaporates<br />
| Formed by the {{w|Hoover Dam}} on the {{w|Colorado River}}, {{w|Lake Mead}} is the largest reservoir in the United States (measured by maximum capacity). It hasn't reached its capacity since 1983, due to drought and increased demand for water. This could be linked to {{w|global warming}}.<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2022<br />
| Kilimanjaro snow-free<br />
| At 5,895 metres, {{w|Kilimanjaro}} is the highest mountain in {{w|Africa}}, and the highest free-standing mountain in the world. Around 85% of its ice cover disappeared between 1912 and 2011, and it continues to recede.<br />
|-<br />
| HTML 5 finished<br />
| {{w|HTML 5}}<br />
|-<br />
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out<br />
| This is the second time this prediction has appeared. <br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2023<br />
| Jesus returns to Earth (again)<br />
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the second coming, the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible itself says that "no man can know the date". Several predicted dates have come and gone.<br />
|-<br />
| US debt passes 100% of GDP<br />
| {{w|US Debt}}<br />
|-<br />
| All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest<br />
| Likely due to a combination of wildfire and {{w|deforestation}}<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="5"| 2024<br />
| Atlantis begins to reappear<br />
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. <br />
|-<br />
| Orangutans extinct in wild<br />
| {{w|Orangutan|Orangutans}} are a species of great ape, currently classed as an {{w|endangered species}}, and found only in the {{w|Rainforest|rainforests}} of {{w|Borneo}} and {{w|Sumatra}}.<br />
|-<br />
| China lands men and women on the moon<br />
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.<br />
|-<br />
| NASA sets up permanent moon base<br />
| There is a a lot of hype recently about finally returning to the moon, vis-a-vis Orion. <br />
|-<br />
| Female professionals pass males in pay<br />
| There are two possible explanations for this entry: Either it's fear-mongering from misogynists or, more probably, an erroneous extrapolation from the current rate at which female incomes are catching up to male incomes.<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="4"| 2025<br />
| World population reaches 8 billion<br />
| Given current rates, it seems unlikely it will take this long to hit 8 billion, but advances in birth control options and especially their availability in developing nations may slow the current rate considerably.<br />
|-<br />
| Two billion people face water shortages<br />
| http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/28-01-2008/103693-water_crisis-0/<br />
|-<br />
| 62 MPG cars introduced<br />
| Miles per gallon. 62 MPG is a very good mileage rate at today's standard. <br />
|-<br />
| US power fades<br />
| http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-us-power-will-fade-by-2025/<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="5"| 2026<br />
| Atlantis emerges completely<br />
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. It seems that it has taken 2 years for it to emerge completely.<br />
|-<br />
| Rock Bands die out<br />
| https://bestbands.wordpress.com/2009/01/25/rock-bands-to-die-out-by-2026/<br />
|-<br />
| US debt paid off<br />
| {{w|US Debt}}<br />
|-<br />
| Car accidents cease<br />
| Presumably, cars will be fully automated and able to pilot themselves at this point and will have fail-safes that prevent collisions currently attributed to user error. Car accidents will always be possible, however, due to mechanical and electrical failures.<br />
|-<br />
| West coast falls into ocean<br />
| Most likely due to {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|a significant seismic event}}<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2027<br />
| Japan introduces new fastest Maglev train<br />
| Japan's railway systems are famous for their "bullet trains", or {{w|Shinkansen}}.<br />
|-<br />
| Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony is established<br />
| http://totse.mattfast1.com/en/technology/space_astronomy_nasa/moonmars.html<br />
|-<br />
| Social Security stops running surplus<br />
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="4"| 2028<br />
| Tobacco outlawed<br />
| Tobacco products (cigarettes and chewing tobacco) have become more and more taboo in modern culture, with most public places and private businesses forbidding their use indoors and near places children congregate. <br />
|-<br />
| 40% of coral reefs gone<br />
| Many factors have been attributed to the decline of {{w|Coral_reef#Threats|coral reefs}}, including mining, over fishing, and rising ocean tempteratures.<br />
|-<br />
| US debt paid off<br />
| {{w|US Debt}} nytimes.com It’s 2026, and the Debt Is Due By N. GREGORY MANKIW <br />
|-<br />
| Social Security stops running surplus<br />
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="4"| 2029<br />
| Social Security trust fund exhausted<br />
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}<br />
|-<br />
| Computers pass the Turing test<br />
| Computers already clear the Turing Test about 30% of the time. Also, it is no coincidence that 2029 is the timeline for Terminator Movies.<br />
|-<br />
| Aging reversed<br />
| Manhattan Beach Project to reverse aging by 2029<br />
|-<br />
| Wikipedia reaches 30 Million articles<br />
| As of 00:00, 5 January 2015 (UTC), Wikipedia has over 34 million total articles, if all languages are included. Randall may have meant the English language Wikipedia, which has only 4.686 million articles, as of 00:00, 5 January 2015 (UTC).<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2030<br />
| Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging<br />
| WWF press release - [http://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/climate-change-speeds-up-amazon-s-destruction-says-wwf Climate Change Speeds Up Amazon’s Destruction] referring to a report on the [http://assets.panda.org/downloads/amazonas_eng_04_12b_web.pdf Amazon's vicious cycles] (PDF)<br />
|-<br />
| Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels<br />
| From the [http://www.cancer.org/myacs/newengland/global-cancer-burden-to-double-by-2030 Global Cancer Burden to Nearly Double by 2030] article about the article from page 37 of [http://www.cancer.org/research/cancerfactsfigures/globalcancerfactsfigures/global-facts-figures-2nd-ed Global Cancer Facts & Figures 2nd edition].<br />
|-<br />
| Arctic ice-free in summer<br />
| http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-video-ap.html<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2031<br />
| Computers controlled by thought<br />
| http://www.gizmag.com/future-mobile-technology/17554/<br />
|-<br />
| Realtors replaced by technology<br />
| http://agbeat.com/editorials/will-realtors-be-replaced-by-technology-by-the-year-2031/<br />
|-<br />
| Social Security trust fund exhausted<br />
| http://crfb.org/blogs/cbo-95-percent-confident-social-security-trust-fund-runs-out-25-years<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2032<br />
| "Big One" hits San Francisco<br />
| http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Quake-scientists-predict-Big-One-likely-by-2032-2653745.php {{w|San Franscisco}} is located on the {{w|San Andreas Fault}}, which is predicted to produce a magnitude 7+ earthquake in the 'near future'. This event is referred to as {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|"The Big One"}}.<br />
|-<br />
| US elects first married lesbian President<br />
| http://4chandata.org/g/In-what-major-ways-do-you-think-the-world-of-2032-will-be-different-from-that-of-today-a20155<br />
|-<br />
| Entire world converted to Christianity<br />
| http://www.goddiscussion.com/38920/christian-domininionsts-to-take-over-the-world-by-2032/<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2033<br />
| Kilimanjaro ice disappears<br />
| http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/02/idUSL2210825<br />
|-<br />
| India becomes superpower<br />
| https://www.facebook.com/pages/India-A-SuperPower-by-2033/151177191568098 ?<br />
|-<br />
| Europe reaches Mars<br />
| http://www.spacedaily.com/news/esa-general-03zb.html<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2034<br />
| US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple<br />
| [http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/27/us-diabetes-usa-costs-idUSTRE5AQ0C220091127 U.S. diabetes cases to double, costs triple by 2034]<br />
|-<br />
| US builds autonomous robot army<br />
| [http://www.aos-inc.com/index.php/medialias/press-releases?id=112 Unmanned Systems] article, about the [http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA522247 2009-2034 Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap] publication ([http://www.amazon.com/2009-Unmanned-Integrated-Aircraft-Technologies-ebook/dp/B0047743A0 details at Amazon])<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2035<br />
| 80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources<br />
| From fact sheet on Obama's [http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/fact-sheet-state-union-president-obamas-plan-win-future State of the Union]<br />
|-<br />
| Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size<br />
| From an IPCC report on [https://web.archive.org/web/20100116132657/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html The Himalayan glaciers] that has been analysed in quite some depth. See for example detailed article on an [http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/02/anatomy-of-ipccs-himalayan-glacier-year-2035-mess/ anatomy of IPCC’s mistake].<br />
|-<br />
| Arctic sea lane opens<br />
| [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/730ef8fe-27e1-11e0-8abc-00144feab49a.html#axzz3OBgEHYNY Arctic sea lane could open by 2035]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2036<br />
| 80% of US has access to high-speed rail<br />
| [http://www.wnyc.org/story/284946-obama-80-percent-of-americans-should-have-access-to-high-speed-rail-by-2036/ Obama: 80 Percent of Americans Should Have Access to High Speed Rail By 2036]<br />
|-<br />
| Asteroid Apophis misses/hits Earth<br />
| http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ 99942 Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029.<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2037<br />
| Arctic ice-free in September<br />
| {{w|Arctic sea ice decline}}<br />
|-<br />
| Social Security trust fund exhausted<br />
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2038<br />
| 32-bit timestamps roll over, causing Y2K-level chaos<br />
| 03:14:07 UTC on 19 January 2038, the value of time_t rolls over, that is it will return to zero. time_t is the computing standard measurement of time, it is a count of the number of seconds since 00:00:00 UTC on 1 January 1970. time_t us used by most computer systems to store date and time information. It is recommended that new software should convert to a 64 bit time_t, indeed most operating systems designed to run on 64-bit hardware already use signed 64-bit time_t integers. This would give an epoch of 15:30:08 UTC on 4 December 292,277,026,596 (292 billion years away). Of course, legacy systems may not be upgradable so action taken now should prevent this becoming a problem closer to 2038...<br />
|-<br />
| "Big One" hits California<br />
| [http://www.presstelegram.com/technology/20080414/the-big-one-likely-to-hit-by-2038 `The big one' likely to hit by 2038]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2039<br />
| US population hits 400 Million<br />
| [http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2008/us400million.aspx U.S. Population Projected to Hit 400 Million in 2039]<br />
|-<br />
| Severe heat waves become commonplace<br />
| [http://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/july/extreme-heat-study-070810.html Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds]<br />
|-<br />
| Scientology becomes majority religion in US<br />
| [http://home.snafu.de/tilman/2039.html Essay: Scientology in the year 2039]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2040<br />
| Arctic summers ice-free<br />
| [http://www.livescience.com/9419-arctic-summer-ice-free-2040.html Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2040]<br />
|-<br />
| Nanotechnology makes humans immortal<br />
| [http://www.computerworld.com/article/2528330/app-development/nanotech-could-make-humans-immortal-by-2040--futurist-says.html Nanotech could make humans immortal by 2040, futurist says]<br />
|-<br />
| 2041<br />
| Social Security trust fund exhausted<br />
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}<br />
|-<br />
| 2043<br />
| World population passes 9 Billion<br />
| {{w|Population growth}}<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2044<br />
| Mankind genetically engineered to be happy<br />
| Premise of the movie [http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1363468/ Zenith] - further details are in the [http://www.filmjournal.com/filmjournal/content_display/esearch/e3i25130cd57f1590bda4527c098ac85b01 film review for Zenith]<br />
|-<br />
| Childhood obesity reaches 100%<br />
| [http://www.ivanhoe.com/channels/p_channelstory.cfm?storyid=11414 100-Percent Childhood Obesity Predicted by 2044]<br />
|-<br />
| 2045<br />
| Humans and machines merge<br />
| Ray Kurzweil predicts of 'singularity' which will lead to race of super intelligent beings<br />
|-<br />
| 2046<br />
| World's natural resources depleted<br />
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2047<br />
| World ruled by banks and corporations<br />
| [http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Schlock-2047-RM-Krakoff-ebook/dp/B0039IT37Q Future Schlock] - the story of a world turned upside down in 2047<br />
|-<br />
| Tobacco industry fails<br />
| [http://www.news.wisc.edu/16857 Experts: Big Tobacco dead by 2047, possibly sooner]<br />
|-<br />
| US begins using autonomous attack drones<br />
| [http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/aug/22/us-air-force-drones-pilots-afghanistan US Air Force prepares drones to end era of fighter pilots]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2048<br />
| Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing<br />
| WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ Unsustainable fishing]<br />
|-<br />
| Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle<br />
| [http://future.wikia.com/wiki/RyansWorld:_Bathing_Suits_of_the_Future RyansWorld: Bathing Suits of the Future]<br />
|-<br />
| Entire US population overweight<br />
| Article archive - [https://web.archive.org/web/20090321075605/http://thestatsblog.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/scientists-say-thin-people-face-extinction-in-united-states-everyone-will-be-overweight-by-2048-%E2%80%93-and-less-smart Scientists Say Thin People Face Extinction in United States: Everyone Will Be Overweight by 2048 – And Less Smart]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2049<br />
| $1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity<br />
| [http://www.americanbar.org/content/newsletter/publications/technology_e_report_home/2007_may_technotes.html TechNotes: Trends in Technology]<br />
|-<br />
| Singularity occurs<br />
| [http://www.prismdecision.com/the-singularity-is-near The Singularity Is Near]<br />
|-<br />
| Fishing industry collapses<br />
| This tends to happen when your food-stock is extinct - see WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ Unsustainable fishing]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="5"| 2050<br />
| 80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers<br />
| [http://infochangeindia.org/population/books-a-reports/80-of-world-population-will-soon-be-in-urban-areas.html 80% of world population will soon be in urban areas]<br />
|-<br />
| China controls space<br />
| <br />
|-<br />
| Sex with robots possible<br />
| [http://www.livescience.com/1951-forecast-sex-marriage-robots-2050.html Forecast: Sex and Marriage with Robots by 2050]<br />
|-<br />
| Cars banned from European cities<br />
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/8411336/EU-to-ban-cars-from-cities-by-2050.html EU to ban cars from cities by 2050]<br />
|-<br />
| One million species extinct from climate change<br />
| [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/01/0107_040107_extinction.html By 2050 Warming to Doom Million Species, Study Says]<br />
|-<br />
| 2051<br />
| Atmosphere escapes into space<br />
| [http://www.thehulltruth.com/boating-outdoor-photos/255705-have-you-ever-seen-fallstreak-hole.html conspiracy theory] relating to {{w|Fallstreak hole}} or hole punch clouds.<br />
|-<br />
| 2052<br />
| Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue<br />
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2053<br />
| US budget balanced<br />
| [http://crfb.org/blogs/omb-releases-long-term-projections-fy2015-budget-proposal OMB releases long-term projections for the FY2015 budget proposal]<br />
|-<br />
| Majority of Americans in prison<br />
| [http://articles.philly.com/1992-06-14/news/26032105_1_prison-officials-prison-time-prison-commissioners 'Beyond Bricks And Bars' As Jails Overflow, The Lock-'em-up Credo Is Drawing Unlikely Criticism - From Prison Officials Themselves]<br />
|-<br />
| Cars driven by dogs<br />
| [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWAK0J8Uhzk This has already occured!]<br />
|-<br />
| 2054<br />
| Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem<br />
| [http://www.albionmonitor.com/0403a/earth2054.html Hunger Could Be 'Unimaginable' Global Problem By 2054]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2055<br />
| Atmospheric CO2 doubled<br />
| [http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/flash_intro.php Carbon Mitigation Initiative: Stabilization Wedges]<br />
|-<br />
| Oil runs out<br />
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]<br />
|-<br />
| Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted<br />
| [http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/environment/5-valuable-metals-that-could-vanish-by-2055 5 Valuable Metals That Could Vanish by 2055]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2056<br />
| RFID-tagged driverless cars<br />
| [http://www.zdnet.com/article/rfid-tagged-driverless-cars-on-roads-by-2056/ RFID-tagged driverless cars on roads by 2056]<br />
|-<br />
| Robots given same rights as humans<br />
| [http://www.cc.gatech.edu/news/robots-given-same-rights-humans-2056 Robots Given Same Rights As Humans By 2056]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2057<br />
| 150 Japanese settlers on Mars<br />
| [http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/9011051292/will-japan-colonize-mars Will Japan colonize Mars?]<br />
|-<br />
| Colorado River runs dry<br />
| [http://news.agu.org/press-release/colorado-river-reservoirs-could-bottom-out-from-warming-business-as-usual/ Colorado River Reservoirs Could Bottom Out From Warming]<br />
|-<br />
| 2058<br />
| Smoking ends in New Zealand<br />
| [http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10698966 Smoking to die out in NZ by 2058]<br />
|-<br />
| 2059<br />
| Humans have domesticated robots<br />
| [http://diehardempiricist.blogspot.co.nz/2012/05/6-may-2011-virtual-necking-demography.html Virtual necking, demography, and robots]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="4"| 2060<br />
| Human race lives in peace<br />
| [http://www.arasfoundation.org/vision.html ARAS vision/mission]<br />
|-<br />
| Extreme droughts across much of Earth<br />
| [http://wdas.cosmosmagazine.com/news/extreme-drought-across-most-earth-30-years/ Extreme drought across most of Earth by 2060]<br />
|-<br />
| Global temperature rise reaches 4 °C<br />
| {{w|Avoiding dangerous climate change}}<br />
|-<br />
| Oil runs out again<br />
| [http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/01/oil-may-run-out-by-2060-hsbc/?__lsa=98a7-5c61 Oil may run out by 2060: HSBC]<br />
|-<br />
| 2061<br />
| Halley's comet returns<br />
| Halley's comet returns to the inner solar system (the vicinity of earth and the sun) every 75.3 years. The last time it was near earth was in 1985-1986. When it next returns, its closest approach to the sun will occur on 28 July 2061.<ref name=horizons>[http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi Donald K. Yeomans. "Horizon Online Ephemeris System". California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 8 September 2006.]</ref><br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2062<br />
| Uganda hosts World Cup<br />
| [http://shillingscents.blogspot.co.nz/2010/07/uganda-to-host-world-cup-in-2062.html Uganda to host world cup in 2062]<br />
|-<br />
| The Jetsons<br />
| {{w|http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Jetsons}}<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="4"| 2063<br />
| First human clones reach adulthood<br />
| [http://au.ign.com/articles/2004/04/28/the-fall-last-days-of-gaia-diary-2 The Fall - Last Days of Gaia Diary #2]<br />
|-<br />
| Population of Moon reaches 100,000<br />
| Reading Eagle newspaper article from July 17, 1963 - [http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1955&dat=19630717&id=PhgrAAAAIBAJ&sjid=B50FAAAAIBAJ&pg=4055,6599008 Moon Population of 100,000 Is Predicted for 2063] and [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]<br />
|-<br />
| Population of Mars reaches 10,000<br />
| [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]<br />
|-<br />
| Spacecraft exceed speed of light<br />
| Physics as currently understood states that it is impossible to exceed the speed of light. A monumental shift in our physics would have had to have occurred for this to come true. This is a reference to the 8th Star Trek feature Film: "Star Trek: First Contact" where Zefram Cochrane performs the first human Warp Flight on April 5, 2063.<br />
|-<br />
| 2064<br />
| Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels<br />
| [http://www.cleanhouston.org/air/features/hazyfuture.htm State plan guarantees a hazy future for Texas’ wilderness areas]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2065<br />
| Last coral reefs die out<br />
| From an [http://www.edgeofexistence.org/coral_reef_conservation/coral_reef_video.php article about a video called Reefs on the Edge] set in 2065 where a 15-year-old girl tells her grandfather's stories of corel reefs, and their demise.<br />
|-<br />
| Chernobyl cleanup complete<br />
| [http://rt.com/politics/chernobyl-clean-in-55-years-time/ Chernobyl clean in 55 years time?]<br />
|-<br />
| 2066<br />
| Cyprus achieves its goal<br />
| This is from some [http://www.cyprus-forum.com/cyprus33608-110.html#p665612 forum posts on the decendants of Cypriots] that lends support to the autonomy of Cyprus from Greek or Turkey.<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2067<br />
| Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV<br />
| The article at [http://blogs.lib.unc.edu/ncm/index.php/2013/11/15/artifact-of-the-month-slide-rule-1916/ Artifact of the Month: Slide rule, 1916] includes information from the International Slide Rule Museum that "in 1967, Keuffel & Esser Co. commissioned a study of the future, predicting that Americans in 2067 would live in domed cities and watch 3D television."<br />
|-<br />
| Redheads go extinct<br />
| [http://science.howstuffworks.com/life/genetic/redhead-extinction.htm Are redheads going extinct?]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2068<br />
| Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering<br />
| [http://www.theozonehole.com/recovery.htm NASA Study Finds Clock Ticking Slower On Ozone Hole Recovery]<br />
|-<br />
| The Resurrections -- What Really Happens<br />
| [http://myth-one.com/chapter_8.htm The Resurrections -- What Really Happens]<br />
|-<br />
| Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water<br />
| [http://thedailybanter.com/2013/01/alex-jones-the-government-is-trying-to-make-more-gay-people/ Alex Jones talks about chemicals that make people gay]<br />
|-<br />
| 2069<br />
| Public masturbation legalized<br />
| [http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/UnNews:It's_still_not_okay_to_Pull_Your_Penis_out_in_Public It's still not okay to Pull Your Penis out in Public]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="3"| 2070<br />
| World population peaks<br />
| [http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1108-global-population-to-peak-in-2070.html Global population to peak in 2070]<br />
|-<br />
| City-scale flooding disasters<br />
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthnews/3317033/City-scale-flooding-disasters-predicted-by-2070.html City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070]<br />
|-<br />
| 60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources<br />
| [http://www.ssisolarenergy.com/solar-alternative-energy/ What Is Alternative Energy All About?]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2071<br />
| Europe's temperatures rise by 3 °C<br />
| [http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/climate-energy/climate-change-adaptation/adaptation-tools/project-catalog/peseta-projection-of-economic-impacts-of-climate Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis]<br />
|-<br />
| World summer temperatures rise by 5 °C<br />
| <br />
|-<br />
| 2072<br />
| US retirement age is set to 75<br />
| <br />
|-<br />
| 2073<br />
| Oceans do not rise one foot<br />
| <br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2074<br />
| Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million<br />
| [http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-8848188.html UK to have 1 million centenarians by 2074]<br />
|-<br />
| Supertyphoons hit Japan<br />
| [http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/09/08/national/super-typhoons-in-store-as-seas-warm/ Super typhoons in store as seas warm]<br />
|-<br />
| 2075<br />
| US retirement age set to 69<br />
| [http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2010/1112/Retirement-age-at-69-Deficit-plan-hits-Social-Security Retirement age at 69? Deficit plan hits Social Security]<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2076<br />
| Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors<br />
| [https://doclib.uhasselt.be/dspace/bitstream/1942/871/1/yitzhaki373.PDF Multiple Authorship in Biochemistry and Other Fields] (PDF)<br />
|-<br />
| Social Security trust fund exhausted<br />
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}<br />
|-<br />
| 2078<br />
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out<br />
| <br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="4"| 2079<br />
| US debt reaches 716% of GDP<br />
| {{w|US Debt}}<br />
|-<br />
| Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest<br />
| [http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2011/feb/climate-change-causing-demise-lodgepole-pine-western-north-america Climate change causing demise of lodgepole pine in western North America]<br />
|-<br />
| Floods commonplace<br />
| [http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090108101627.htm Floods To Become Commonplace By 2080]<br />
|-<br />
| Religion marginalized<br />
| <br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2080<br />
| Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP<br />
| <br />
|-<br />
| UK population doubles<br />
| [http://forums.canadiancontent.net/international-politics/69603-britains-population-hit-110-million.html Britain's population to hit 110 million]<br />
|-<br />
| 2082<br />
| World population declines to one billion<br />
| [http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html Population: The Elephant in the Room]<br />
|-<br />
| 2084<br />
| Robot policemen introduced<br />
| [http://www.thetechherald.com/articles/Robotic-cops-set-to-stamp-out-crime-by-2084 Robotic cops set to stamp out crime by 2084]<br />
|-<br />
| 2085<br />
| US deficit reaches 62% of GDP<br />
| [http://moneybob.com/2010/06/28/paul-krugman-throws-in-towel-says-were-headed-for-another-depression/ Paul Krugman Throws In Towel, Says We’re Headed For Another Depression]<br />
|-<br />
| 2088<br />
| Japan becomes all-robot country<br />
| [http://www.theretributioners.tv/erics-blog/2009/11/25/-japan-to-become-all-robot-country-by-2088.html Japan To Become All Robot Country By 2088]<br />
|-<br />
| 2089<br />
| World halts fossil fuel use<br />
| {{w|Fossil Fuels}}<br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="2"| 2090<br />
| Global warming hits 7 °C <br />
| [http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/models-warn-of-7c-dangerous-climate-change-by-2090.html Models warn of 7C dangerous climate change by 2090]<br />
|-<br />
| Global warming hits 4 °C<br />
| <br />
|-<br />
| rowspan="11"| 2100<br />
| Global warming around 5-7 °C<br />
| [http://grist.org/article/bau-fd/ Hadley Center study warns of ‘catastrophic’ 5-7°C warming by 2100 on current emissions path]<br />
|-<br />
| Sea levels have risen by a meter or more<br />
| {{w|Future sea level}}<br />
|-<br />
| Joshua trees nearly extinct<br />
| [http://news.discovery.com/earth/joshua-trees-climate-change-110325.htm Joshua Trees Nearly Wiped Out by 2100?]<br />
|-<br />
| Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous<br />
| [http://www.pnas.org/content/107/2/576 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100]<br />
|-<br />
| Germany tropical<br />
| [http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/climate-change-predictions-a-tropical-germany-by-2100-a-463378.html Climate Change Predictions: A Tropical Germany by 2100?]<br />
|-<br />
| Emperor penguins extinct<br />
| [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7851276.stm Emperor penguins face extinction]<br />
|-<br />
| Arctic permafrost thaws<br />
| [http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/surface-permafrost-could/ Surface Permafrost Could Disappear by 2100]<br />
|-<br />
| Rising seas flood coastal cities<br />
| [http://uanews.org/story/rising-seas-will-affect-major-us-coastal-cities-2100 Rising Seas Will Affect Major U.S. Coastal Cities by 2100]<br />
|-<br />
| Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts<br />
| [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/08/06/890970/-Massive-Loss-of-Rainforest-Species-by-2100-eKos-Earthship-Friday Massive Loss of Rainforest Species by 2100]<br />
|-<br />
| All coral reefs gone <br />
| [http://planetsave.com/2010/10/15/coral-reefs-gone-by-2100/ Coral Reefs Gone by 2100?]<br />
|-<br />
| Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor<br />
| Each iteration of the Gillette line or safety razors has one more blade than the previous one. MadTV has also [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FAP8o5ZEo0 parodied] this.<br />
|-<br />
| 2101<br />
| WAR WAS BEGINNING<br />
| References {{w|Zero Wing}}, a 1981 Japanese computer game set in 2101, famous for poorly translated English and the source for "All your base are belong to us".<br />
|}<br />
<references/><br />
<br />
==Transcript==<br />
:<big>'''THE FUTURE'''</big><br />
:'''According to Google search results'''<br />
:Events for each year determined by the first page of Google search results for the phrases:<br />
::{|<br />
|-<br />
|<small>"By <year>"</small><br />
|<small>"In year"</small><br />
|-<br />
|<small>"By the year <year>"</small><br />
|<small>"In the year <year>"</small><br />
|-<br />
|<small>"Will * by the year <year>"</small><br />
|<small>"Will * in the year <year>"</small><br />
|-<br />
|<small>"In <year>, * will"</small><br />
|<small>"By <year>, * will"</small><br />
|}<br />
<br />
:{|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="4" width="50px" valign="top"|2012<br />
|World population reaches 7 billion<br />
|-<br />
|Flying cars reach market<br />
|-<br />
|Canada cuts greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels as per Kyoto<br />
|-<br />
|Apocalypse occurs<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2013<br />
|National debt paid off through President Clinton's plans<br />
|-<br />
|Microchipping of all Americans begins<br />
|-<br />
|Homelessness ended in Massachusetts<br />
|-<br />
|Health care reform law repealed<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2014<br />
|US leaves Afghanistan<br />
|-<br />
|GNU/Linux becomes dominant OS<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2015<br />
|New Horizons reaches Pluto<br />
|-<br />
|Health care law causes hyperinflation<br />
|-<br />
|192 UN member nations achieve millennium development goals:<br />
*Extreme poverty and hunger eradicated<br />
*Universal primary education implemented<br />
*Women empowered, gender equality reached<br />
*Environmental stability ensured<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2016<br />
|Baby boomers begin turning 65<br />
|-<br />
|Android takes 38% of the smartphone market<br />
|-<br />
|Android takes 45% of the smartphone market<br />
|-<br />
|Windows Phone overtakes iOS in smartphones<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="5" valign="top"|2017<br />
|China completes unmanned Lunar sample-return mission<br />
|-<br />
|Social Security stops running surplus<br />
|-<br />
|US budget balanced<br />
|-<br />
|Newspapers become obsolete and die out<br />
|-<br />
|Cosmetic surgery doubles<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2018<br />
|Social Security stops running surplus<br />
|-<br />
|Jesus returns to Earth<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2019<br />
|Social Security stops running surplus<br />
|-<br />
|Every baby has genes mapped at birth<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2020<br />
|Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels<br />
|-<br />
|Keyboards and mice become obsolete<br />
|-<br />
|New Tappan Zee bridge constructed<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2021<br />
|US debt reaches 97% of GDP<br />
|-<br />
|US unemployment falls to 2.8%<br />
|-<br />
|Restored caliphate unifies Middle East<br />
|-<br />
|Lake Mead evaporates<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2022<br />
|Kilimanjaro snow-free<br />
|-<br />
|HTML 5 finished<br />
|-<br />
|Newspapers become obsolete and die out<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2023<br />
|Jesus returns to Earth (again)<br />
|-<br />
|US debt passes 100% of GDP<br />
|-<br />
|All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="5" valign="top"|2024<br />
|Atlantis begins to reappear<br />
|-<br />
|Orangutans extinct in wild<br />
|-<br />
|China lands men and women on the moon<br />
|-<br />
|NASA sets up permanent moon base<br />
|-<br />
|Female professionals pass males in pay<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2025<br />
|World population reaches 8 billion<br />
|-<br />
|Two billion people face water shortages<br />
|-<br />
|62 MPG cars introduced<br />
|-<br />
|US power fades<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="5" valign="top"|2026<br />
|Atlantis emerges completely<br />
|-<br />
|Rock Bands die out<br />
|-<br />
|US debt paid off<br />
|-<br />
|Car accidents cease<br />
|-<br />
|West coast falls into ocean<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2027<br />
|Japan introduces new fastest Maglev train<br />
|-<br />
|Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony is established<br />
|-<br />
|Social Security stops running surplus<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2028<br />
|Tobacco outlawed<br />
|-<br />
|40% of coral reefs gone<br />
|-<br />
|US debt paid off<br />
|-<br />
|Social Security stops running surplus<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2029<br />
|Social Security trust fund exhausted<br />
|-<br />
|Computers pass the Turing test<br />
|-<br />
|Aging reversed<br />
|-<br />
|Wikipedia reaches 30 Million articles<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2030<br />
|Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging<br />
|-<br />
|Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels<br />
|-<br />
|Arctic ice-free in summer<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2031<br />
|Computers controlled by thought<br />
|-<br />
|Realtors replaced by technology<br />
|-<br />
|Social Security trust fund exhausted<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2032<br />
|"Big One" hits San Francisco<br />
|-<br />
|US elects first married lesbian President<br />
|-<br />
|Entire world converted to Christianity<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2033<br />
|Kilimanjaro ice disappears<br />
|-<br />
|India becomes superpower<br />
|-<br />
|Europe reaches Mars<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2034<br />
|US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple<br />
|-<br />
|US builds autonomous robot army<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2035<br />
|80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources<br />
|-<br />
|Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size<br />
|-<br />
|Arctic sea lane opens<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2036<br />
|80% of US has access to high-speed rail<br />
|-<br />
|Asteroid Apophis misses/hits Earth<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2037<br />
|Arctic ice-free in September<br />
|-<br />
|Social Security trust fund exhausted<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2038<br />
|32-bit timestamps roll over, causing Y2K-level chaos<br />
|-<br />
|"Big One" hits California<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2039<br />
|US population hits 400 Million<br />
|-<br />
|Severe heat waves become commonplace<br />
|-<br />
|Scientology becomes majority religion in US<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2040<br />
|Arctic summers ice-free<br />
|-<br />
|Nanotechnology makes humans immortal<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2041<br />
|Social Security trust fund exhausted<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2042<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2043<br />
|World population passes 9 Billion<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2044<br />
|Mankind genetically engineered to be happy<br />
|-<br />
|Childhood obesity reaches 100%<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2045<br />
|Humans and machines merge<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2046<br />
|World's natural resources depleted<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2047<br />
|World ruled by banks and corporations<br />
|-<br />
|Tobacco industry fails<br />
|-<br />
|US begins using autonomous attack drones<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2048<br />
|Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing<br />
|-<br />
|Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle<br />
|-<br />
|Entire US population overweight<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2049<br />
|$1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity<br />
|-<br />
|Singularity occurs<br />
|-<br />
|Fishing industry collapses<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="5" valign="top"|2050<br />
|80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers<br />
|-<br />
|China controls space<br />
|-<br />
|Sex with robots possible<br />
|-<br />
|Cars banned from European cities<br />
|-<br />
|One million species extinct from climate change<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2051<br />
|Atmosphere escapes into space<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2052<br />
|Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2053<br />
|US budget balanced<br />
|-<br />
|Majority of Americans in prison<br />
|-<br />
|Cars driven by dogs<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2054<br />
|Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2055<br />
|Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> doubled<br />
|-<br />
|Oil runs out<br />
|-<br />
|Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2056<br />
|RFID-tagged driverless cars<br />
|-<br />
|Robots given same rights as humans<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2057<br />
|150 Japanese settlers on Mars<br />
|-<br />
|Colorado River runs dry<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2058<br />
|Smoking ends in New Zealand<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2059<br />
|Humans have domesticated robots<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2060<br />
|Human race lives in peace<br />
|-<br />
|Extreme droughts across much of Earth<br />
|-<br />
|Global temperature rise reaches 4&nbsp;°C<br />
|-<br />
|Oil runs out again<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2061<br />
|Halley's comet returns<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2062<br />
|Uganda hosts World Cup<br />
|-<br />
|The Jetsons<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2063<br />
|First human clones reach adulthood<br />
|-<br />
|Population of Moon reaches 100,000<br />
|-<br />
|Population of Mars reaches 10,000<br />
|-<br />
|Spacecraft exceed speed of light<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2064<br />
|Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2065<br />
|Last coral reefs die out<br />
|-<br />
|Chernobyl cleanup complete<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2066<br />
|Cyprus achieves its goal<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2067<br />
|Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV<br />
|-<br />
|Redheads go extinct<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2068<br />
|Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering<br />
|-<br />
|Lord Jesus rules Earth from throne in Jerusalem<br />
|-<br />
|Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2069<br />
|Public masturbation legalized<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2070<br />
|World population peaks<br />
|-<br />
|City-scale flooding disasters<br />
|-<br />
|60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2071<br />
|Europe's temperatures rise by 3&nbsp;°C<br />
|-<br />
|World summer temperatures rise by 5&nbsp;°C<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2072<br />
|US retirement age is set to 75<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2073<br />
|Oceans do not rise one foot<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2074<br />
|Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million<br />
|-<br />
|Supertyphoons hit Japan<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2075<br />
|US retirement age set to 69<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2076<br />
|Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors<br />
|-<br />
|Social Security trust fund exhausted<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2077<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2078<br />
|Newspapers become obsolete and die out<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2079<br />
|US debt reaches 716% of GDP<br />
|-<br />
|Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest<br />
|-<br />
|Floods commonplace<br />
|-<br />
|Religion marginalized<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2080<br />
|Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP<br />
|-<br />
|UK population doubles<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2081<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2082<br />
|World population declines to one billion<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2083<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2084<br />
|Robot policemen introduced<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2085<br />
|US deficit reaches 62% of GDP<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2086<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2087<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2088<br />
|Japan becomes all-robot country<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2089<br />
|World halts fossil fuel use<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2090<br />
|Global warming hits 7&nbsp;°C<br />
|-<br />
|Global warming hits 4&nbsp;°C<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2091<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2092<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2093<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2094<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2095<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2096<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2097<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2098<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2099<br />
|<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="11" valign="top"|2100<br />
|Global warming around 5-7&nbsp;°C<br />
|-<br />
|Sea levels have risen by a meter or more<br />
|-<br />
|Joshua trees nearly extinct<br />
|-<br />
|Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous<br />
|-<br />
|Germany tropical<br />
|-<br />
|Emperor penguins extinct<br />
|-<br />
|Arctic permafrost thaws<br />
|-<br />
|Rising seas flood coastal cities<br />
|-<br />
|Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts<br />
|-<br />
|All coral reefs gone<br />
|-<br />
|Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor<br />
|-<br />
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2101<br />
|WAR WAS BEGINNING<br />
|}<br />
<br />
{{comic discussion}}<br />
[[Category:Charts]]<br />
[[Category:Google Search]]</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=Talk:79:_Iambic_Pentameter&diff=68782Talk:79: Iambic Pentameter2014-06-04T04:04:27Z<p>199.27.128.62: </p>
<hr />
<div>Wait, normal people don't communicate exclusively in iambic pentameter? Shakespeare lied to me! [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.62|199.27.128.62]] 04:04, 4 June 2014 (UTC)<br />
<br />
It's really not so hard to write such prose,<br /><br />
To stick to Shakespeare's scheme for fellow bards,<br /><br />
Of course the preparation always slows,<br /><br />
So spontaneity aint on the cards.<br /><br />
The better art of live concoction sits,<br /><br />
Beyond the skill of I your editor,<br /><br />
And this is why the comic title bits,<br /><br />
Are true and accurate without a flaw.<br /><br />
Or so I humour Randall by these lines,<br /><br />
Restricted by the form I've set upon,<br /><br />
Fearing that soon I'll commit rhyming crimes,<br /><br />
That you the readers see arrive, 'ere long.<br /><br />
And thus a sonnet author finds to be,<br /><br />
Whether for fun or for a Dark Lady.<br /><br />
[[Special:Contributions/178.98.31.27|178.98.31.27]] 14:08, 24 June 2013 (UTC)</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=Talk:703:_Honor_Societies&diff=59506Talk:703: Honor Societies2014-02-06T03:51:05Z<p>199.27.128.62: </p>
<hr />
<div>A tautology is a statement that is always true and that doesn't convey any information. A classic example is 'A or not A', which is true if A is true, but also if A isn't true. 'Either it rains or it doesn't rain' is true, no matter what weather it is. <br />
<br />
"If 1.000.000 people join this group, it will have 1.000.000 people in it" is, strictly speaking, not a tautology, since it wouldn't be true if - somehow - 1.000.000 people were able to join the group without it having 1.000.000 people in it (I don't know - maybe if people leave the group before the counter hit 1.000.000?). It would also be true if there were somehow 1.000.000 members of the group without 1.000.000 people joining it. It is of the form 'if A then A' which is pretty much a much longer version of just 'A'. It's true if it's true, and it isn't if it isn't - so it isn't a tautology.<br />
<br />
The same goes for 'The first rule of the tautology club is the first rule of the tautology club' - It's just a long way of saying "This is the first rule of the tautology club' - which can be true or false. <br />
<br />
Granted; the statements hold enough implied information that we will agree that they are true in a trivial sense, and they are much more fun than 'either there are 1.000.000 people in this group or there aren't 1.000.000 people in this group' and 'either this is the first rule of the tautology club or it isn't' [[Special:Contributions/193.88.197.67|193.88.197.67]] 22:15, 2 September 2013 (UTC)<br />
: While I do understand what you're getting at, you are surprisingly wrong on a few accounts. First, A or not A (i.e. A V ~A) is not always a tautology. I've spent enough painful time around intuitionists to say this whenever I can.<br />
<br />
:Unnecessary nitpick aside, then, there are more serious things. I presume the sentence, "It would also be true if there were somehow 1.000.000 members of the group without 1.000.000 people joining it," should be, "It would also '''not''' be true if there were somehow 1.000.000 members of the group without 1.000.000 people joining it." (Otherwise, the "also" is used incorrectly, and the sentence is useless.) Unfortunately, this would make it wrong; a statement of the form "if A then B" is not false if B is true and A isn't. (This is the difficulty of making formal logic: the traditional conditional leads to bizarre, vacuous truths.) Also, more seriously, you say that "if A then A" is a longer way of saying "A", or, more formally, that "A → A" is logically equivalent to "A." Unfortunately, this is not the case. The statement "if A then A" is always true, and hence a tautology. You also assert that "A = A" (or "A ↔ A") is logically equivalent to "A", where "A" is "The first rule of tautology club." This is even more obviously false. Even if "The first rule of tautology club" yields falsehood, it is still equivalent to itself.<br />
<br />
:Serious issues aside, I do agree with your sentiment that "[i]f 1.000.000 people join this group, it will have 1.000.000 people in it" is not necessarily a tautology, but removing the ambiguities (did they all join at the same time? did anyone leave?), which would necessarily be done in any formalization of the statement, would yield the tautological "A → A." {{unsigned|Quicksilver}}<br />
<br />
Why does this comic have the [[:Category:Philosophy|Philosophy]] category? Am I missing something? [[User:GameZone|GameZone]] ([[User talk:GameZone|talk]]) 08:27, 6 September 2013 (UTC)<br />
<br />
:Logic is technically philosophy, or at least they're closely connected. [[User:Sciepsilon|Sciepsilon]] ([[User talk:Sciepsilon|talk]]) 20:23, 30 December 2013 (UTC)<br />
<br />
It is worth noting that this comic is Randall's commentary on certain honor societies, who don't do anything except for selecting new members. Feynman once made a remark to that effect, and may be Randall's influence on the matter. (Or not.) Regardless, this explanation is missing the viewpoint. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.74|108.162.215.74]] 20:53, 28 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
<br />
I see that nobody's pointed out that the third figure from the left in the third panel appears to be Jason Fox (see [[824: Guest Week: Bill Amend (FoxTrot)]])- known to be one of those nerdy types who would join a tautology club. He is (to my knowledge) perpetually in the fifth grade, though, which does make me a little suspicious. --[[Special:Contributions/173.245.56.24|173.245.56.24]] 00:03, 2 January 2014 (UTC)</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=Talk:703:_Honor_Societies&diff=59505Talk:703: Honor Societies2014-02-06T03:49:20Z<p>199.27.128.62: </p>
<hr />
<div>A tautology is a statement that is always true and that doesn't convey any information. A classic example is 'A or not A', which is true if A is true, but also if A isn't true. 'Either it rains or it doesn't rain' is true, no matter what weather it is. <br />
<br />
"If 1.000.000 people join this group, it will have 1.000.000 people in it" is, strictly speaking, not a tautology, since it wouldn't be true if - somehow - 1.000.000 people were able to join the group without it having 1.000.000 people in it (I don't know - maybe if people leave the group before the counter hit 1.000.000?). It would also be true if there were somehow 1.000.000 members of the group without 1.000.000 people joining it. It is of the form 'if A then A' which is pretty much a much longer version of just 'A'. It's true if it's true, and it isn't if it isn't - so it isn't a tautology.<br />
<br />
The same goes for 'The first rule of the tautology club is the first rule of the tautology club' - It's just a long way of saying "This is the first rule of the tautology club' - which can be true or false. <br />
<br />
Granted; the statements hold enough implied information that we will agree that they are true in a trivial sense, and they are much more fun than 'either there are 1.000.000 people in this group or there aren't 1.000.000 people in this group' and 'either this is the first rule of the tautology club or it isn't' [[Special:Contributions/193.88.197.67|193.88.197.67]] 22:15, 2 September 2013 (UTC)<br />
: While I do understand what you're getting at, you are surprisingly wrong on a few accounts. First, A or not A (i.e. A V ~A) is not always a tautology. I've spent enough painful time around intuitionists to say this whenever I can.<br />
<br />
:Unnecessary nitpick aside, then, there are more serious things. I presume the sentence, "It would also be true if there were somehow 1.000.000 members of the group without 1.000.000 people joining it," should be, "It would also '''not''' be true if there were somehow 1.000.000 members of the group without 1.000.000 people joining it." (Otherwise, the "also" is used incorrectly, and the sentence is useless.) Unfortunately, this would make it wrong; a statement of the form "if A then B" is not false if B is true and A isn't. (This is the difficulty of making formal logic: the traditional conditional leads to bizarre, vacuous truths.) Also, more seriously, you say that "if A then A" is a longer way of saying "A", or, more formally, that "A → A" is logically equivalent to "A." Unfortunately, this is not the case. The statement "if A then A" is always true, and hence a tautology. You also assert that "A = A" (or "A ↔ A") is logically equivalent to "A", where "A" is "The first rule of tautology club." This is even more obviously false. Even if "The first rule of tautology club" yields falsehood, it is still equivalent to itself.<br />
<br />
:Serious issues aside, I do agree with your sentiment that "[i]f 1.000.000 people join this group, it will have 1.000.000 people in it" is not necessarily a tautology, but removing the ambiguities (did they all join at the same time? did anyone leave?), which would necessarily be done in any formalization of the statement, would yield the tautological "A → A." {{unsigned|Quicksilver}}<br />
<br />
Why does this comic have the [[:Category:Philosophy|Philosophy]] category? Am I missing something? [[User:GameZone|GameZone]] ([[User talk:GameZone|talk]]) 08:27, 6 September 2013 (UTC)<br />
<br />
:Logic is technically philosophy, or at least they're closely connected. [[User:Sciepsilon|Sciepsilon]] ([[User talk:Sciepsilon|talk]]) 20:23, 30 December 2013 (UTC)<br />
<br />
It is worth noting that this comic is Randall's commentary on certain honor societies, who don't do anything except for selecting new members. Feynman once made a remark to that effect, and may be Randall's influence on the matter. (Or not.) Regardless, this explanation is missing the viewpoint. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.74|108.162.215.74]] 20:53, 28 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
<br />
I see that nobody's pointed out that the third figure from the left in the third panel appears to be Jason Fox (see [[824: Guest Week: Bill Amend (FoxTrot)]])- known to be one of those nerdy types who would join a tautology club. He is (to my knowledge) perpetually in the fifth grade, though, which does make me a little suspicious. --[[Special:Contributions/173.245.56.24|173.245.56.24]] 00:03, 2 January 2014 (UTC)<br />
<br />
Does anybody else think the guy with glasses in the final panel resembles Jason Fox from Foxtrot?[[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.62|199.27.128.62]] 03:49, 6 February 2014 (UTC)</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=Talk:123:_Centrifugal_Force&diff=59326Talk:123: Centrifugal Force2014-02-04T05:58:24Z<p>199.27.128.62: </p>
<hr />
<div>Are you allowed to describe a force acting upon you when you are in an accelerating reference frame? I'm pretty sure you're not. The explanation says that from bond's point of view, he is at rest. Well, sort of. If you're in an accelerating car you can tell that you're not at rest because your inertia seems to be "pulling" you backwards. There's nothing actually pulling you, though. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.202|108.162.219.202]] 05:24, 30 December 2013 (UTC)<br />
:According to general relativity, that inertial "pull" is indistinguishable from being at rest with a force being applied. In the rotating frame, this apparent force is the centrifugal force. [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.62|199.27.128.62]] 05:58, 4 February 2014 (UTC)</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=296:_Tony_Hawk&diff=59220296: Tony Hawk2014-02-03T03:25:48Z<p>199.27.128.62: /* Explanation */</p>
<hr />
<div>{{comic<br />
| number = 296<br />
| date = July 30, 2007<br />
| title = Tony Hawk<br />
| image = tony_hawk.png<br />
| titletext = Bad idea #271: Dropping into the half-pipe on a Segway.<br />
}}<br />
<br />
==Explanation==<br />
[[Cueball]] is seen using a {{w|PlayStation_Portable|PSP}}, a hand-held game system, while on a skateboard. He is playing one of the many {{w|Tony Hawk's (series)|Tony Hawk}} titles in which you control a skater and perform tricks to gain points and achievements. While playing the game on his PSP, he wants to simultaneously perform the trick in real life both because it is exceptionally difficult to do both and because the game will give him praise when he does a trick successfully.<br />
<br />
The title text adds another item to the bad idea list, going into a half pipe with a {{w|Segway PT|Segway}}. Since a Segway uses a gyroscope to keep you balanced, trying to "drop into a half-pipe" while using one will likely violently fling the rider back into the upright position probably hurting them against the side of the half pipe as well as possibly damaging the Segway itself. Since it's being added to the list, it's also likely that Cueball tried this at some point in time (along with 270 other bad ideas).<br />
<br />
==Transcript==<br />
:My Hobby:<br />
:Doing skateboard tricks in ''Tony Hawk'' while also doing them in real life.<br />
:[Cueball moves towards a quarter pipe on his skateboard while manipulating his PSP.]<br />
:''Beep''<br />
:''Click''<br />
:''Beep''<br />
<br />
:[Cueball is in mid air having performed a Frontside 360°, both literally and on the PSP.]<br />
<br />
{{comic discussion}}<br />
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]<br />
[[Category:Video games]]<br />
[[Category:My Hobby]]</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=Talk:1310:_Goldbach_Conjectures&diff=56236Talk:1310: Goldbach Conjectures2013-12-30T21:42:16Z<p>199.27.128.62: </p>
<hr />
<div>If a bot can create the text I read here, we have made great strides in artificial intelligence. Probably a human editor forgot to change the "incomplete/incorrect" heading. [[User:Tenrek|Tenrek]] ([[User talk:Tenrek|talk]]) 05:53, 30 December 2013 (UTC)<br />
:You never know, AI has come a loong way. '''[[User:Davidy22|<u>{{Color|#707|David}}<font color=#070 size=3>y</font></u><font color=#508 size=4>²²</font>]]'''[[User talk:Davidy22|<tt>[talk]</tt>]] 06:39, 30 December 2013 (UTC)<br />
<br />
::Let's ask: Tepples, are you a bot? And 199.27.128.62, what about you? -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 10:09, 30 December 2013 (UTC)<br />
<br />
:::Yes, I'm a bot. [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.62|199.27.128.62]] 21:42, 30 December 2013 (UTC)<br />
<br />
I thought that <nowiki>{{incomplete|Created by a BOT}}</nowiki> means that the template was inserted by a BOT. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.50.84|173.245.50.84]] 13:55, 30 December 2013 (UTC)<br />
:It does mean that. But as others edit the page, they should keep the "incomplete" reason up-to-date. I've changed it to "incomplete|surely not quite complete yet..." ;) [[User:Nealmcb|Nealmcb]] ([[User talk:Nealmcb|talk]]) 14:28, 30 December 2013 (UTC)<br />
::I will change this text template beginning at the Friday update when I'm back home. Happy NEW YEAR to everybody! --[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 15:16, 30 December 2013 (UTC)</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1310:_Goldbach_Conjectures&diff=561561310: Goldbach Conjectures2013-12-30T05:50:04Z<p>199.27.128.62: /* Explanation */</p>
<hr />
<div>{{comic<br />
| number = 1310<br />
| date = December 30, 2013<br />
| title = Goldbach Conjectures<br />
| image = goldbach_conjectures.png<br />
| titletext = The weak twin primes conjecture states that there are infinitely many pairs of primes. The strong twin primes conjecture states that every prime p has a twin prime (p+2), although (p+2) may not look prime at first. The tautological prime conjecture states that the tautological prime conjecture is true.<br />
}}<br />
<br />
==Explanation==<br />
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT}}<br />
<br />
[[Wikipedia:Goldbach's conjecture|Goldbach's conjecture]], [[Wikipedia:Goldbach's weak conjecture|Goldbach's weak conjecture]], and the [[Wikipedia:Twin prime conjecture|Twin prime conjecture]] are unsolved problems in mathematics relating to prime numbers, or numbers whose only factors are 1 and itself.<br />
<br />
A "strong" conjecture is typically a more restrictive form of the corresponding "weak" conjecture, with the "strong" conjecture typically implying the "weak" one, but not vice versa. For example, Goldbach's strong conjecture would imply Goldbach's weak conjecture, because any odd number greater than 5 can be expressed as 3 plus an even number greater than 2, which would itself be expressed as the sum of two prime numbers, resulting in a way to express the original odd number as the sum of three prime numbers (the two prime numbers that sum to the even number, and 3). The weak conjecture does not, however, imply the strong conjecture. This comic plays on the "strong" and "weak" naming of Goldbach's conjectures by extending it beyond the two famous ones to further degrees of strength or weakness.<br />
<br />
Goldbach's weak conjecture has been claimed to have been proven true, while Goldbach's strong conjecture remains unsolved. The two even weaker "conjectures" are obviously true, with the "extremely weak" conjecture not making a formal mathematical statement at all. The two strongest "conjectures" are so strong that they are obviously false.<br />
<br />
The title text refers to the twin prime conjecture, which states that there are an infinite number of pairs of primes that differ by 2. Randall's weak twin prime conjecture states that there are an infinite number of pairs of primes, which is again obviously true. His strong twin prime conjecture states that every prime is 2 less than another prime (although it might not look like a prime at first). The tautological prime conjecture states that it itself is true, while making no statement about primes. It is not, despite its name, a tautology. An example of a tautology would be "all primes are prime".<br />
<br />
==Transcript==<br />
{{incomplete transcript}}<br />
;Extremely weak<br />
:Numbers just ''keep going''<br />
;Very weak<br />
:Every number greater than 7 is the sum of two other numbers<br />
;Weak<br />
:Every odd number greater than 5 is the sum of three primes<br />
;Strong<br />
:Every even number greater than 2 is the sum of two primes<br />
;Very strong<br />
:Every odd number is prime<br />
;Extremely strong<br />
:There are no numbers above 7<br />
<br />
{{comic discussion}}</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1310:_Goldbach_Conjectures&diff=561541310: Goldbach Conjectures2013-12-30T05:43:26Z<p>199.27.128.62: /* Explanation */</p>
<hr />
<div>{{comic<br />
| number = 1310<br />
| date = December 30, 2013<br />
| title = Goldbach Conjectures<br />
| image = goldbach_conjectures.png<br />
| titletext = The weak twin primes conjecture states that there are infinitely many pairs of primes. The strong twin primes conjecture states that every prime p has a twin prime (p+2), although (p+2) may not look prime at first. The tautological prime conjecture states that the tautological prime conjecture is true.<br />
}}<br />
<br />
==Explanation==<br />
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT}}<br />
<br />
[[Wikipedia:Goldbach's conjecture|Goldbach's conjecture]], [[Wikipedia:Goldbach's weak conjecture|Goldbach's weak conjecture]], and the [[Wikipedia:Twin prime conjecture|Twin prime conjecture]] are unsolved problems in mathematics relating to prime numbers, or numbers whose only factors are 1 and itself.<br />
<br />
A "strong" conjecture is typically a more restrictive form of the corresponding "weak" conjecture, with the "strong" conjecture typically implying the "weak" one, but not vice versa. For example, Goldbach's strong conjecture would imply Goldbach's weak conjecture, because any odd number greater than 5 can be expressed as 3 plus an even number greater than 2, which would itself be expressed as the sum of two prime numbers, resulting in a way to express the original odd number as the sum of three prime numbers (the two prime numbers that sum to the even number, and 3). The weak conjecture does not, however, imply the strong conjecture. This comic plays on the "strong" and "weak" naming of Goldbach's conjectures by extending it beyond the two famous ones to further degrees of strength or weakness.<br />
<br />
Goldbach's weak conjecture has been claimed to have been proven true, while Goldbach's strong conjecture remains unsolved. The two even weaker "conjectures" are obviously true, with the "extremely weak" conjecture not making a formal mathematical statement at all. The two strongest "conjectures" are so strong that they are obviously false.<br />
<br />
==Transcript==<br />
{{incomplete transcript}}<br />
;Extremely weak<br />
:Numbers just ''keep going''<br />
;Very weak<br />
:Every number greater than 7 is the sum of two other numbers<br />
;Weak<br />
:Every odd number greater than 5 is the sum of three primes<br />
;Strong<br />
:Every even number greater than 2 is the sum of two primes<br />
;Very strong<br />
:Every odd number is prime<br />
;Extremely strong<br />
:There are no numbers above 7<br />
<br />
{{comic discussion}}</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1236:_Seashell&diff=553261236: Seashell2013-12-16T05:33:19Z<p>199.27.128.62: /* Explanation */</p>
<hr />
<div>{{comic<br />
| number = 1236<br />
| date = July 10, 2013<br />
| title = Seashell<br />
| image = seashell.png<br />
| titletext = This is roughly equivalent to 'number of times I've picked up a seashell at the ocean' / 'number of times I've picked up a seashell', which in my case is pretty close to 1, and gets much closer if we're considering only times I didn't put it to my ear.<br />
}}<br />
<br />
==Explanation==<br />
{{incomplete|1236: Seashell}}<br />
<br />
The equation should be read as follows: (The probability that I'm near the ocean, given that I picked up a seashell) is equal to (The probability that I picked up a seashell, given that I'm near the ocean) multiplied by (The probability that I'm near the ocean) divided by (The probability that I picked up a seashell). This method of relating the probabilites of two events is known as {{w|Bayes' theorem|Bayes' Theorem}}. <br />
<br />
If you put a seashell up to your ear, you can hear {{w|Seashell resonance|a sound similar to the ocean}} apparently inside the shell. But the idea that this sound is actually the sound of the sea is just a popular myth: hold only your hands close to your ears and you will hear the same sound. The comic, through an application of Bayes' Theorem points out that most of the time when you pick up a seashell, you are in fact at the beach next to the real ocean, so hearing the ocean at that location is not all that impressive, but it's just real.<br />
<br />
The title text points out that most instances where the author has picked up a seashell have been at the beach, and nearly all of the times where he has picked up a seashell and not put it to his ear have been there.<br />
<br />
This comic was released late and at the first version the formula was incorrect. But it's corrected now.<br />
<br />
==Transcript==<br />
:P(I'm near the ocean | I picked up a seashell) =<br />
:P(I picked up a seashell | I'm near the ocean) P(I'm near the ocean)<br />
:———————————<br />
:P(I picked up a seashell)<br />
<br />
<br />
:''Crashhh''<br />
:''Sploosh''<br />
:[Cueball holding a seashell.]<br />
:Statistically speaking, if you pick up a seashell and ''don't'' hold it to your ear, you can probably hear the ocean.<br />
<br />
{{Comic discussion}}<br />
[[Category:Math]]<br />
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1287:_Puzzle&diff=531231287: Puzzle2013-11-20T06:00:30Z<p>199.27.128.62: /* Explanation */</p>
<hr />
<div>{{comic<br />
| number = 1287<br />
| date = November 6, 2013<br />
| title = Puzzle<br />
| image = puzzle.png<br />
| titletext = Prediction for Carlsen v. Anand: ... 25. Qb8+ Nxb8 26. Rd8# f6 27. "... dude." Qf5 28. "The game is over, dude." Qxg5 29. Rxe8 0-1 30. "Dude, your move can't be '0-1'. Don't write that down." [Black flips board]<br />
}}<br />
<br />
==Explanation==<br />
{{incomplete}}<br />
<br />
The game of {{w|Go (game)|go}} (also called Weiqi, Baduk or Igo) is usually played on the 19&times;19 intersections of a grid, but sometimes a faster, simpler version is played on the 9&times;9 intersections of a grid (which thus has 8&times;8 squares, as a chessboard, though they are not colored in an alternating pattern – {{w|White and Black in chess|introduced to chess in the 13th century}}). In the comic, white has chess pieces and plays against black, which uses go stones.<br />
<br />
In chess, particularly in puzzles, the phrasing "White to move" indicates that it's the White player's turn; "White to play and win" indicates that it's White's turn and the next series of moves (if White plays correctly) will result in an advantageous position or possibly outright win for White. The caption "White to continue insisting this is a chessboard" is a play on this traditional phrasing. The same kind of phrasing is also used in {{w|Tsumego|Go puzzles}}. In Go puzzles the objectives are often of a local or tactical (as opposed to strategic) character, such as "White to capture four black stones" or "White to live in the corner".<br />
<br />
Two versions of the board were posted by Randall: both had white after Pe3, Pd4, Nf3, Nc3, but the first with an extra bishop at e4 (B@e4), the second after Bd2.<br />
<br />
B@e4 in the first version of the board was perhaps intended to represent confusion in White's mind whether he was playing Go (placing a piece) or Chess (it's a chess piece) – as a 'placement' this move could have been first, and could explain Pe3 with e4 already being blocked.<br />
<br />
It it unclear who has gone first. In Go it is traditional for black to go first, while in Chess it has been traditional for white to go first for about a century. Indeed, both players have made five moves, although the caption/"punchline" implies it is the start of white's sixth turn (though if black did go first, none of his/her pieces are in the 3-3 handicap positions marked on a 9x9 Go board).<br />
<br />
The title text refers to the upcoming {{w|World Chess Championship 2013|2013 World Chess Championship}} between Carlsen and Anand. {{w|Magnus Carlsen}} is a 22 year old Norwegian chess grandmaster, who had the highest peak rating and was the third youngest grandmaster in history. He was the world's 2009 blitz champion and is currently ranked #1 in the world by FIDE. {{w|Viswanathan Anand}} is a 43 year old Indian grandmaster, 5 time and current World Champion, who is currently ranked #8 in the world.<br />
<br />
The game transcript in the title text refers to the ending of the famous {{w|Morphy versus the Duke of Brunswick and Count Isouard|Opera Game}} between Paul Morphy and the Duke of Brunswick and Count Isouard. That game ends with 16. Qb8+ Nxb8 17. Rd8#. In the title text, Black continues to make moves as if he has not been checkmated, over White's protests. After White uses his rook to capture Black's king (to emphasize the checkmate), Black defiantly writes "0-1" (the notation symbolizing a Black victory) on his scoresheet. When informed that his move cannot be to declare victory, he flips the board. "0-1" may also represent a position on a go board (first down on the top left corner) in [http://senseis.xmp.net/?Coordinates certain coordinates systems].<br />
<br />
The game transcript is written in standard {{w|Algebraic notation (chess)|algebraic notation}}. The destination square is represented by a lowercase letter (a-h, on the x-axis) and a number (1-8, on the y-axis), with the bottom-left square being a1 and the top-right square being h8. The uppercase letters refer to the piece that is moving to that square (e.g., Q = Queen, K = King, N = Knight, R = Rook), so Qa1 would mean moving the Queen to the bottom-left square. The absence of an uppercase letter refers to a pawn's move (e.g., "f6" means moving a pawn to f6). If the move captures a piece, an "x" is inserted between the piece and the destination (e.g., Nxb8). Checks are indicated by +, and checkmate by #.<br />
<br />
==Transcript==<br />
:[A game board with 8x8 white squares and black borders, like a goboard or an all white chessboard, there are white chess pieces in starting position on the bottom after Pe3, Pd4, Nf3, Nc3, Bd2 and five black Go pieces on the vertices in the center of the board at d4 d5 c6 g4 g6.]<br />
:White to continue insisting this is a chessboard<br />
<br />
{{comic discussion}}<br />
[[Category:Chess]]</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1287:_Puzzle&diff=520491287: Puzzle2013-11-06T08:15:15Z<p>199.27.128.62: </p>
<hr />
<div>{{comic<br />
| number = 1287<br />
| date = November 6, 2013<br />
| title = Puzzle<br />
| image = puzzle.png<br />
| titletext = Prediction for Carlsen v. Anand: ... 25. Qb8+ Nxb8 26. Rd8# f6 27. "... dude." Qf5 28. "The game is over, dude." Qxg5 29. Rxe8 0-1 30. "Dude, your move can't be '0-1'. Don't write that down." [Black flips board]<br />
}}<br />
<br />
==Explanation==<br />
{{incomplete}}<br />
<br />
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess Chess] and [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_(game) Go] are both played on boards with squares. In the comic, white has chess figures and plays against black, who is using go stones.<br />
<br />
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen Magnus Carlsen] and [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viswanathan_Anand Viswanathan Anand] are professional chess players who are scheduled to play for the title of Chess World Champion.<br />
<br />
There are three white bishops. This is impossible in chess without 'queening' a pawn, in which case there should be less than 8 pawns. The board appears to be the correct size for a chessboard, but smaller than a regular go board. However, the squares are uncolored, like a go board, while they should be shaded alternately light and dark on a chessboard.<br />
<br />
==Transcript==<br />
{{incomplete transcript}}<br />
<br />
{{comic discussion}}<br />
[[Category:Chess]]</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1287:_Puzzle&diff=520481287: Puzzle2013-11-06T08:14:11Z<p>199.27.128.62: /* Explanation */</p>
<hr />
<div>{{comic<br />
| number = 1287<br />
| date = November 6, 2013<br />
| title = Puzzle<br />
| image = puzzle.png<br />
| titletext = Prediction for Carlsen v. Anand: ... 25. Qb8+ Nxb8 26. Rd8# f6 27. "... dude." Qf5 28. "The game is over, dude." Qxg5 29. Rxe8 0-1 30. "Dude, your move can't be '0-1'. Don't write that down." [Black flips board]<br />
}}<br />
<br />
==Explanation==<br />
{{incomplete}}<br />
<br />
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess Chess] and [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_(game) Go] are both played on boards with squares. In the comic, white has chess figures and plays against black, who is using go stones.<br />
<br />
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen Magnus Carlsen] and [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viswanathan_Anand Viswanathan Anand] are professional chess players who are scheduled to play for the title of Chess World Champion.<br />
<br />
There are three white bishops. This is impossible in chess without 'queening' a pawn, in which case there should be less than 8 pawns. The board appears to be the correct size for a chessboard, but smaller than a regular go board.<br />
<br />
==Transcript==<br />
{{incomplete transcript}}<br />
<br />
{{comic discussion}}<br />
[[Category:Chess]]</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1287:_Puzzle&diff=520471287: Puzzle2013-11-06T08:12:52Z<p>199.27.128.62: </p>
<hr />
<div>{{comic<br />
| number = 1287<br />
| date = November 6, 2013<br />
| title = Puzzle<br />
| image = puzzle.png<br />
| titletext = Prediction for Carlsen v. Anand: ... 25. Qb8+ Nxb8 26. Rd8# f6 27. "... dude." Qf5 28. "The game is over, dude." Qxg5 29. Rxe8 0-1 30. "Dude, your move can't be '0-1'. Don't write that down." [Black flips board]<br />
}}<br />
<br />
==Explanation==<br />
{{incomplete}}<br />
<br />
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess Chess] and [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_(game) Go] are both played on boards with squares. In the comic, white has chess figures and plays against black, who is using go stones.<br />
<br />
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen Magnus Carlsen] and [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viswanathan_Anand Viswanathan Anand] are professional chess players who are scheduled to play for the title of Chess World Champion.<br />
<br />
Just want to point out that there are three white bishops, this is impossible in chess without 'queening' a pawn, in which case there should be less than 8 pawns.<br />
<br />
==Transcript==<br />
{{incomplete transcript}}<br />
<br />
{{comic discussion}}<br />
[[Category:Chess]]</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1287:_Puzzle&diff=520461287: Puzzle2013-11-06T08:11:57Z<p>199.27.128.62: </p>
<hr />
<div>{{comic<br />
| number = 1287<br />
| date = November 6, 2013<br />
| title = Puzzle<br />
| image = puzzle.png<br />
| titletext = Prediction for Carlsen v. Anand: ... 25. Qb8+ Nxb8 26. Rd8# f6 27. "... dude." Qf5 28. "The game is over, dude." Qxg5 29. Rxe8 0-1 30. "Dude, your move can't be '0-1'. Don't write that down." [Black flips board]<br />
}}<br />
<br />
==Explanation==<br />
{{incomplete}}<br />
<br />
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess Chess] and [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_(game) Go] are both played on boards with squares. In the comic, white has chess figures and plays against black, who is using go stones.<br />
<br />
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen|Magnus Carlsen] and [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viswanathan_Anand|Viswanathan Anand] are professional chess players.<br />
<br />
Just want to point out that there are three white bishops, this is impossible in chess without 'queening' a pawn, in which case there should be less than 8 pawns.<br />
<br />
==Transcript==<br />
{{incomplete transcript}}<br />
<br />
{{comic discussion}}<br />
[[Category:Chess]]</div>199.27.128.62https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=Talk:1286:_Encryptic&diff=52023Talk:1286: Encryptic2013-11-06T05:37:04Z<p>199.27.128.62: </p>
<hr />
<div>The answer to the weathervane sword/ favorite apostle hint has got to be Matthias. It is 8 characters long, Matthias was the apostle chosen to replace Judas and in the Redwall series Matthias is one of the wielders of the Sword of Martin a sword that was hung on a weathervane.<br />
<br />
It is unclear to me if these are actual hashes from Adobe file? That would be very cool... but actual file seems to have passwords in slightly different format. http://arstechnica.com/security/2013/11/how-an-epic-blunder-by-adobe-could-strengthen-hand-of-password-crackers/ [[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.211|108.162.229.211]] 09:05, 4 November 2013 (UTC) pavel<br />
<br />
:I wouldn't call 3DES secure ... but yes, in this situation the real problem is not using per-user salt. Note that I would expect that at least some of those examples would be solvable ...any idea? Hmmm ... sword of weather vane and one of apostles might be Martin ([http://redwall.wikia.com/wiki/Sword_of_Martin]) ... -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 10:00, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
<br />
::It's Jonathon (for John). Not sure what it has to do with weather vane swords though... [[Special:Contributions/108.162.240.18|108.162.240.18]] 12:42, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
<br />
:Umm. "Peter" does not seem to have 8 characters, does it? Encryption method suggests it should be 8 characters, as do 8 character boxes on the right... [[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.211|108.162.229.211]] 10:43, 4 November 2013 (UTC) pavel<br />
<br />
::I'd say "weather vane sword", "name1" and "favorite of 12 apostles" is (Saint) Peter. "Weather vane" as symbol for the rooster in the denial, and the sword Peter used when Jesus was arrested. --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.254.177|108.162.254.177]] 10:25, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
<br />
::: ... interesting that google search didn't mentioned it :-) Seems bible have too low pagerank. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 10:32, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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::: The 'favourite' apostle was John the Evangelist though. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disciple_whom_Jesus_loved . The other biblical clue here is 'with your own hand you have done all this' - Judith 15:10. If that's Judith1510 then the 'name and shirt number' is 'Judith15'. The TOS/earlobes clue seems to be "Spock's brain" and "Spock's (ears?)". And the Michael Jackson one is (obviously) ABC123. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.214|141.101.99.214]] 11:14, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
:::: Perhaps "favorite" in this case refer's to the user's favorite, not Jesus's. [[User:Yomikoma|Yomikoma]] ([[User talk:Yomikoma|talk]]) 16:13, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
:::: The Michael Jackson password should just be "ABC". (The other clue refers only to letters, and the proper song title also has only letters.) —[[User:TobyBartels|TobyBartels]] ([[User talk:TobyBartels|talk]]) 20:57, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
::: Given that name1 is two blocks long, I would guess that the apostle's name is going to be eight characters long, with the second hash block being 1+seven spaces (or nulls if Adobe pads it with nulls and not spaces). But then again, as the only disciple with a name eight letters long is Thaddeus maybe not {{unsigned ip|141.101.99.214}}<br />
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:::: "St.Peter" is 8 characters, and having a "special" character (the period) makes it a good choice for passwords that might require 1 non-alphanumeric character (and ban spaces). [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.223|141.101.99.223]] 11:47, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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:::: I think it is obvious that Name1 refers to {The user's name} + 1. I wonder though if we should be referring to one of the other 12 apostles in a different context? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelve_Apostles_%28disambiguation%29 - [[Special:Contributions/108.162.242.11|108.162.242.11]] 18:02, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
::::: Is the "weathervane sword" referring to Redwall? I haven't read the book myself, but would it be referring to the "Sword of Martin"? [http://redwall.wikia.com/wiki/Sword_of_Martin] --[[User:Jeff|<b><font color="orange">Jeff</font></b>]] ([[User talk:Jeff|talk]]) 19:17, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Another article about using passwords hints from multiple users to find the passwords from the breach. http://7habitsofhighlyeffectivehackers.blogspot.com/2013/11/can-someone-be-targeted-using-adobe.html [[User:Bugefun|Bugefun]] ([[User talk:Bugefun|talk]]) 11:06, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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"Sexy earlobes" makes me think of [http://misswiu.livejournal.com/5385.html "The ABC of Aerobics"], but that would make that Shirley Clarke, and nothing in Star Trek has anything to do with Shirley that I am aware of, except possible [http://en.memory-alpha.org/wiki/Ruth Shirley Bonne as Ruth]. I skimmed a list of episode titles, but nothing jumps out at me as particularly earlobish. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.187|108.162.219.187]] 11:20, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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:Sexy earlobes might have something to do with Ferengi, but they didn't appeared in TOS. 141.101.99.214's idea is better. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 11:42, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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:OK, we know that "sexy earlobes" and "best TOS Episode" are the same for the first eight character, but differ after that, while "best TOS" and "sugarland" are the same after the first 8 characters. So, my guesses are : Best TOS episode: "Charlie X"; "Sexy Earlobes": Someone with the first name of "Charlie"; "Sugarland": some city in Texas (perhaps "HoustonTX") [[User:JamesCurran|JamesCurran]] ([[User talk:JamesCurran|talk]]) 16:51, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Note that you should not ever use cipher in {{w|Block_cipher_mode_of_operation#Electronic_codebook_.28ECB.29|ECB (electronic codebook)}} mode, i.e. encrypt each block separately and independently, but use chaining. --[[User:JakubNarebski|JakubNarebski]] ([[User talk:JakubNarebski|talk]]) 12:15, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: And for passwords you shouldn't be using a cipher at all, but rather a hash function. (Or a cipher in one of the approved hash constructions, if you must.) And really you shouldn't be using a standard hash function, but be following best practices for passwords instead: salting the hash, using a *slow* hash function, etc. [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 20:22, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Hmm, i'm rather confused about the last few on the list though. Assumedly the password for "he did the mash, he did the" would be "monster mash", but that would leave "purloined" with a password of either "monsterm" or "monster ". which doesn't make much sense. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.240.18|108.162.240.18]] 13:47, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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(charlie sheen) a1f9b2b6299e7a2b eadec1e6ab797397 sexy earlobes - He did a 2 and a half men episode on sexy earlobes<br />
:(charlie x) a1f9b2b6299e7a2b 617ab0277727ad85 best tos episode - Star Trek has so many good episodes...<br />
::(houstontx) 39738b7adb0b8af7 617ab0277727ad85 sugarland - Sugarland is in Houston, TX<br />
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I don't know about anyone else, but the "hints" column incidentally reminded me of {{w|Darwinian poetry|Darwinian Poetry}}... Not intentionally, I'm sure. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.214|141.101.98.214]] 14:46, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Somehow I've missed out on this issue until this comic alerted me to it, but: once a few passwords are correctly guessed, does that make it straightforward to recover the encryption key, and then be able to decrypt '''all''' of them? —[[User:Scs|scs]] ([[User talk:Scs|talk]]) 14:50, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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: Answering my own question: not really straightforward, no. 3DES is still pretty strong, and what knowing a few passwords gives you is a known-plaintext attack, which helps a little, but is by no means a giveaway. —[[User:Scs|scs]] ([[User talk:Scs|talk]]) 15:00, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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:: Note that if blackhat used this service, he would know at least one plaintext - his own password--[[User:JakubNarebski|JakubNarebski]] ([[User talk:JakubNarebski|talk]]) 15:05, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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:No, for calculating the encryption key of Triple DES, there is no real benefit in knowing million passwords, you would still need to brute force it. You would need to know at least 2<sup>32</sup> different passwords to make it easier but you can't do that with the leaked file (there are about 30 times less of them and moreover many of them are not unique). [[User:Sten|'''S<small>TEN</small>''']] <small>([[User talk:Sten|talk]])</small> 16:08, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Okay, so the first column is the encrypted password, the second one is the hint chosen by user. What do rectangles mean? [[Special:Contributions/173.245.53.151|173.245.53.151]] 15:28, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
:That are the fields to fill the characters in just as you do in a crossword puzzle. There are small fields at the beginning that take one character each and one large field at the end that takes one to eight characters. [[User:Sten|'''S<small>TEN</small>''']] <small>([[User talk:Sten|talk]])</small> 15:32, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Water 3 is an egg group: http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Water_3_(Egg_Group) . Given the length of the key, it will probably be 9-16 characters. (Crawdaunt, tentacool, and tentacruel are most likely) [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.139|199.27.128.139]] 15:43, 4 November 2013 (UTC) <br />
:-- which means 9dca1d79d4dec6d5 is either L, EL, or T, but I can't find a way for that to match up with any variation of "monster mash." [[Special:Contributions/173.245.55.209|173.245.55.209]] 16:15, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
:: Same problem here... Monster mash must not be correct, but it is one of the easier ones, I can't give up on it. --[[User:Jeff|<b><font color="orange">Jeff</font></b>]] ([[User talk:Jeff|talk]]) 17:35, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
::: Maybe, he did the MASH is about the book, movie or TV Show M*A*S*H instead? --[[User:Jeff|<b><font color="orange">Jeff</font></b>]] ([[User talk:Jeff|talk]]) 17:49, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
:: Monster Mash was written by Bobby Pickett, maybe it has something to do with him? [[User:Sten|'''S<small>TEN</small>''']] <small>([[User talk:Sten|talk]])</small> 18:38, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
::: Maybe it's not "monster mash" but just "monster". This would allow the Water-3 Pokemon to be "Cloyster". [[Special:Contributions/108.162.237.5|108.162.237.5]] 19:17, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
:::: You are having trouble counting to eight. [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 20:22, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
::::: You are forgetting the space. Assuming space is stored as a null character, this might actually work.[[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.29|173.245.54.29]] 01:43, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
:::::: Nobody in their right mind would encode spaces as nulls. For us to suppose that they did, we'd need to have some specific clue to that effect. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.238.5|108.162.238.5]] 09:08, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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It seems to me there are two puzzles here, if folks are right that this is not actual data from the hack. 1) Figure out Adobe's master 3DES encryption password, for the big prize. 2) figure out Randall's 3DES encryption password for this puzzle based on these hints, and knowing it will be something clever. [[User:Nealmcb|Nealmcb]] ([[User talk:Nealmcb|talk]]) 16:12, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Trying to decode the passwords (As Randall obviously wants us to)<br />
"with your own hand you have done all this" is from the book of Judith.<br />
Working on decoding the others. --[[User:Jeff|<b><font color="orange">Jeff</font></b>]] ([[User talk:Jeff|talk]]) 17:13, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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8babb6299e06eb6d = password<br />
a0a2876eb1ea1fea = 1<br />
85e9da81a8a78adc = 57<br />
--[[User:Jeff|<b><font color="orange">Jeff</font></b>]] ([[User talk:Jeff|talk]]) 18:10, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Weather Vane Sword may be a reference to Game of Thrones Ascent. The "Sworn Sword", I believe is "Rona" which is also a name. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.55.216|173.245.55.216]] 18:27, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: It needs to be a name of an apostle (as per line 7) and have 7 or 8 characters (as line 3 needs a continuation) so this leaves Matthew, Thaddeus and (Judas) Iscariot. [[User:Sten|'''S<small>TEN</small>''']] <small>([[User talk:Sten|talk]])</small> 18:57, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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If a password(or 8 character segment) is guessed can it be confirmed? Somebody should take this leaked list and create a website that presents it like in the comment and lets people guess. It can fill in the guessed ones. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.246.117|108.162.246.117]] 19:17, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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I'm putting in Mattias for the sword, name1 and disciple because of Saint Matthias [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Matthias] and Redwall Matthias [http://redwall.wikia.com/wiki/Matthias] who held the Weathervane Sword (Also known as the sword of Martin [http://redwall.wikia.com/wiki/The_Sword_of_Martin] ) --[[User:Jeff|<b><font color="orange">Jeff</font></b>]] ([[User talk:Jeff|talk]]) 19:27, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: I've also removed "monster mash" from the list as it can't be right. Doesn't match the pokemon or the purloined clues. --[[User:Jeff|<b><font color="orange">Jeff</font></b>]] ([[User talk:Jeff|talk]]) 19:27, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Based on the Water-3 Pokemon hint, the only possibilities of more than 8 characters are tentacool, tentacruel, barbaracle, crawdaunt, carracosta, clauncher, and clawitzer. This would mean "9dca1d79d4dec6d5" would be l, el, le, t, ta, or r. --[[User:Dvorakmd|Dvorakmd]] ([[User talk:Dvorakmd|talk]]) 19:51, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: This is assuming there are no characters before the actual name of the pokemon. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.55.209|173.245.55.209]] 20:30, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: Assuming Randall has constructed this comic to have a unique answer, it can't end in r because then the clue would be ambiguous (could be clauncher or clawitzer). [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 21:53, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: Some of these can be ruled out; it's very unlikely to be a Generation VI Pokémon (Barbaracle, Clauncher and Clawitzer) as this has only just come out and someone would have had to set up their pasword within the last few weeks. And the Pokémon that are also in the Water-1 group are probably more likely to be thought of as Water-1 than Water-3 (Crawdaunt and Carracosta). This only leaves Tentacool and Tentacruel as longer than 8 letter Water-3 only Pokémon that have been known of for a reasonable length of time; and Tentacool is no one's favourite, as the annoying multitude of them that show up whenever you try to Surf anyway makes them as reviled as Zubats in caves, if not moreso. :P Of course, the password need not be simply the Pokémon's name alone. "SexyShellder" "Cloyster1987" "Misty'sStarmie"... Who knows? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.252|141.101.99.252]] 01:03, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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I don't know the answer to the end either, but here's a list of people who did the Monster Mash, from Wikipedia:<br />
* Bobby Picket (as Boris Picket)<br />
* Garpax Records (Gary S. Paxton)<br />
* The Misfits<br />
* far, far too many other covers to list<br />
And here's some synonyms for "purloined", from thesaurus.com:<br />
* stole<br />
* pilfered<br />
* filched<br />
* misappropriated<br />
* embezzled<br />
* burglarized<br />
* shoplifted<br />
* poached<br />
* pillaged<br />
* cheated<br />
* pinched<br />
* heisted<br />
* thieved<br />
* plundered<br />
* appropriated<br />
* lifted<br />
* took<br />
* snitched<br />
* defrauded<br />
* swindled<br />
* ripped off<br />
* made off with<br />
Good luck with these!<br />
—[[User:TobyBartels|TobyBartels]] ([[User talk:TobyBartels|talk]]) 20:31, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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What about Purloined referring to "The Purloined Letter?" When choosing hints, people, at least in my experience, tend to use word association rather than synonyms. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.55.209|173.245.55.209]]<br />
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Purloined could also be a reference to the Monster.com hack (http://www.symantec.com/connect/blogs/monster-trojan). [[Special:Contributions/108.162.237.11|108.162.237.11]] 21:00, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Words meaning purloined that can have the listed suffixes could be '''embezzle'''/'''embezzler''' or '''scrounge'''/'''scrounger'''. Not sure if it fits to the mash clue. There was a loan shark character who would acquire things on MASH called Rizzo, it is a stretch though. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.246.117|108.162.246.117]] 21:01, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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I'm still trying to figure out how the solutions go into the spaces on the right -- it may be more obvious once the last couple clues are figured out. I suspect the ordering and numbers of clues have some sort of meaning. Why are there 5 of the 877... passwords, 2 with no clues? Why is one of the 4e18.... passwords separated from the rest? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.221.28|108.162.221.28]] 21:07, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Could Purloined be a reference to the "Purloined Shadows" book in Elder Scrolls? --[[User:Dvorakmd|Dvorakmd]] ([[User talk:Dvorakmd|talk]]) 21:09, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: Or 'The Purloined Payroll', a WoW quest? "Purloined in Petrograd" is also a lyric to a Decemberists song (The Bagman's Gambit). Google n-grams suggests that "Purloined Image", and "purloined documents" are a Thing. [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 21:58, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Purloined could be a reference to something that is known as have been stolen like a work of art, or it could be something that was stolen in an XKCD comic. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.246.117|108.162.246.117]] 21:18, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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'''EdgarPoe'''(author of The Purloined Letter)/'''EdgarPoet''' fits, but again not really anything to do with MASH. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.246.117|108.162.246.117]] 21:27, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Water-3 pokemon (egg group) are given here: http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Water_3_(Egg_Group) ...if I split off the letters of their names after the 8th letter, we see l, el, le, t, ta, and r. So the MASH item ends with one of those suffixes. [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.167|199.27.128.167]] 21:31, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: Can't end in 'r', because then that clue would be ambiguous. [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 21:53, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: Speaking of pokemon, could the clue to purloined have something to do with the pokemon Purrloin? http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Purrloin_(Pok%C3%A9mon) [[Special:Contributions/108.162.221.43|108.162.221.43]] 23:51, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Is there a reason "MASH" is capitalized in the above sections? Given the context, it shouldn't be, and I still haven't given up on the password being a reference to the monster mash. That said, we can't ignore the movie/show MASH.<br />
Also, now that I think about it: pokeMONstermash? I don't know, just throwing ideas out :P [[Special:Contributions/173.245.55.209|173.245.55.209]] 22:08, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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On [http://de.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/1pvwyf/xkcd_encryptic_analysis_at_the_link_below/ reddit] they suggest "Letterman" (which is wrong, too many letters) based on the M*A*S*H episode, "Letters". [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 22:11, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
:...on the other hand, I wonder if an answer like "ALANALDA" would work? As in, someone who "did the M*A*S*H"... [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 22:13, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
:: Sadly, no. Because it needs to be more than 8 characters. --[[User:Jeff|<b><font color="orange">Jeff</font></b>]] ([[User talk:Jeff|talk]]) 22:17, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
::: No, I mean, "an answer of this form", not ALANALDA exactly. The Edgar Allan / Alan Alda congruence is tasty, but I can't make it work. ALLANPOE works as an answer for "Purloined" but that makes something like ALLANPOET the answer to "he did the MASH" (CRAWDAUNT is then the pokemon). But that's misspelling Alda's name for the MASH clue, doesn't quite work. There's also JAMIEFARR (Cpl Klinger) as a better answer to "he did the MASH" but then that makes JAMIEFAR the answer to "purloined" and I can't plausibly make that work. ALLANARBUS is another M*A*S*H actor, but that doesn't work at all. Can anyone come up with other/better ideas in this vein? [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 22:31, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
::: Don't misspell Alda's name; misspell Poe's! —[[User:TobyBartels|TobyBartels]] ([[User talk:TobyBartels|talk]]) 02:07, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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In crossword puzzles, a clue ending in -ed (like 'purloined') is most commonly a hint that the answer ends in 'ed'. Cross referencing that with the Pokemon clue, the solution for "he did the MASH" becomes a nine or ten letter answer ending in: -edl, -edel, -edle, -edt, or -edta (excluding -edr due to non-uniqueness), with ......edle looking the most "English-y" to me. My hunch would be something else Robert Altman or Alan Alda "did"... but nothing seems to end in 'edle.' --[[User:Willowy burrito|Willowy burrito]] ([[User talk:Willowy burrito|talk]]) 23:07, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: There is no indication that this is a standard crossword. Most users don't respect crossword conventions when writing password hints. [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 23:59, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
:: Aside from the title. And the text. And the fact these didn't come from users, but were just chosen for a puzzle designed by Randall, who would include just this sort of puzzler hint/in-joke in a comic about puzzles. It's moot, because no synonyms for 'stolen' make any sense with a couple other letters tacked on the end. But still, there've been worse hunches. --[[User:Willowy burrito|Willowy burrito]] ([[User talk:Willowy burrito|talk]]) 00:45, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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For all we know, his favourite Water-3 Pokémon could be Shell Smash Cloyster or Shell Smash Omastar - "OmastarSmash" as a password would fit in with "Monster mash". [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.252|141.101.99.252]] 23:16, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: I like that idea, although it leaves "Monster " (with a trailing space) as the answer to "Purloined", which makes no sense. But interesting idea. [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 00:00, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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MonsterMash<br />
MonsterM<br />
TheWiscash {{unsigned|Jcupcake}}<br />
: It's "Whiscash", and it's Water 2 (not 3) and "MonsterM" makes no sense as an answer for the hint "Purloined". But I like the idea of adding "The" in front of the pokemon answer; perhaps we're being too restrictive by looking only at pokemon with length > 8. [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 23:59, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
::Yeah, sorry about the typo - last one would be TheWhiscash. MonsterM absolutely makes sense. http://www.hoax-slayer.com/monster-666.shtml The purloined letter here IS M [[User:Jcupcake|Jcupcake]] ([[User talk:Jcupcake|talk]]) 02:40, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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So somewhere above this someone pointed out that purloined could refer to a monster.com hack...in which case, could the first two passwords be "monster mash" and "monster"? That would allow for another previous suggestion of "OmastarSmash" Also, here's my IP Address and a remarkably not-random timestamp: [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.195|108.162.219.195]] 01:31, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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It could also be that there are modifiers to the base. I always thought of Monster Mash as MonstaMash. This would line up closely with My Corphish written as "mycorphish" My favorite pokemon is my pikachu not just any pikachu, but mine, sort of logic. [[User:Bitassassin|Bitassassin]] ([[User talk:Bitassassin|talk]]) 01:43, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Could "he did the mash" be referring to brewing and/or the Maillard reaction? [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 05:32, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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I was just thinking that "MonsterM Ash", "MonsterM", both seem to make sense, and Ash had a few water pokemon in the water 3 egg group, so could it potentially be something along the lines of "Corphish Ash"? That was the only 8 letter water 3 pokemon he had and it fits with the other clues [[User:NewToThis|NewToThis]] ([[User talk:NewToThis|talk]]) 07:25, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Has the idea of pokemon fusion been considered? http://pokemon.alexonsager.net/ referenced by http://kotaku.com/how-the-website-that-lets-you-create-frankenstein-pokem-510517336<br />
--[[User:Oukansz|Oukansz]] ([[User talk:Oukansz|talk]]) 19:25, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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;Fanservice<br />
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Randall must know about this site. This comic doesn't work without people to crack the code. Should we have a fanservice category? :-) --[[User:SurturZ|SurturZ]] ([[User talk:SurturZ|talk]]) 23:32, 4 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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I'm beginning to suspect that the wide boxes will have the key in it. Assuming he used regular DES (or DES3, for that matter, but using the same 8-byte key 3 times), it could be plausible. The 5 in the middle could be 'abcde', a lot of the other 'second halves' are numbers, and the likely known one that's not seems to be an 'x' -- which could certainly be involved in writing a hex number... problem is there's 11 of those boxes. Trying to guess what signficance the positioning of those boxes have. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.221.28|108.162.221.28]] 00:00, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Actually, it looks like the boxes line up perfectly such that the wide bits (for second-half) will only touch the words they apply to. Order will be more or less what they are (I see the wide boxes as, in order, 1, 57, 10, Sheen, and X, with the 8 char boxes as Matthias, Password, Judith15, Charlie, and HoustonT). The next 5 are odd -- I'm not sure if we repeat the alpha/obvious password 5 times, or it's 5 chars long (abcde) and one per box. The last set is still under discussion, of course. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.221.28|108.162.221.28]] 00:20, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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;MASH capitalized<br />
I'm currently chasing down the idea that MASH refers to [[Wikipedia:MASH-1]]. Haven't seen any name yet that looks like it might satisfy "Purloined". - [[User:BozoTheScary|BozoTheScary]] ([[User talk:BozoTheScary|talk]]) 01:56, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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I think MASH is a transcribing error. The comic doesn't have any difference on those letters as far as I can tell. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.50.222|173.245.50.222]] 03:18, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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The Purloined Letter is a Edgar Alan Poe story starring C. Auguste Dupin. Might help. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.5|108.162.249.5]] 03:08, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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There is also a strong association between the Monster Mash and the Mashed Potato, just throwing another idea into the ring. Also try the name BobbyPickett. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.5|108.162.249.5]] 03:22, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Frankenstein did the Monster Mash in the cartoon for the song. That leads to a Pokemon card ending in 'tein' and 'frankens' for the hint Purloined. I could not find a Pokemon card that ended in 'tein' nor could I link 'frankens' with Purloined. I ran 'frankens' through Google Translate but found nothing. Also, it's the same password for the "monster mash" hint and the entry with no password hint so I think it's an obvious password (something someone can recall without a hint). Frankenstein fits that part but not the other ones. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.50.222|173.245.50.222]] 03:35, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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My $0.02: "He did the mash..." might allude to the expression "doing the math" only (intentionally) misspelled and something like "numbert" or "numb" could be the answer. --[[User:RagnarDa|RagnarDa]] ([[User talk:RagnarDa|talk]]) 04:01, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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graveyard smash fits for the first clue (though lyrically incorrect). Gives smash as second block, but cannot find association between graveyard and purloined. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.5|108.162.249.5]] 04:08, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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If we take The Monster Mash for the first answer, it could be written as TheMonsterMash or The Monster Mash, giving either TheMonst erMash or The Mons ter Mash as the two blocks. This gives either Themonst or The Mons as Purloined and either ermash or ter Mash for second block of pokemon answer. Suggestions? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.5|108.162.249.5]] 04:15, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: Only problem is that the word "the" is the last word of the hint.[[Special:Contributions/108.162.237.117|108.162.237.117]] 04:51, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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I know that the water-3 group is not the same, but it seems like an odd coincidence that another pokemon group is the "monster" group. --[[User:Natnee|Natnee]] ([[User talk:Natnee|talk]]) 04:44, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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There is a Scooby Doo comic book story titled "[The Purloined Poe-M](http://scoobydoo.wikia.com/wiki/The_Purloined_Poe-M)", which has an odd similarity to the "MonsterM" possible password. This would leave the pokemon password ending "ash" who, of course, is a pokemon character ... which makes no sense in that place. [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.83|199.27.128.83]] 05:51, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Here's one that fits: <br><br />
facemash4077 (Combination of facemash by zuckerberg and M*A*S*H) <br><br />
facemash (Site made by Zuck in The Social network.) <br><br />
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Maybe facmashklinger.. The eggklinger being a water-3 Pokemon? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.39|108.162.215.39]] 06:14, 5 November 2013 (UTC)rbnm<br />
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[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Orchard John Orchard] played in M*A*S*H and also was in the movie "The Letter" [[Special:Contributions/108.162.250.8|108.162.250.8]] 05:02, 6 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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;Working Backwards<br />
I'm attempting to take a different tact, by trying to find the key itself. I'm assuming its something easy to guess. I've tried the top 100 Adobe passwords (you can get them [http://stricture-group.com/files/adobe-top100.txt here]) using the following bash script (testing the word "matthias", as this one seems pretty certain):<br />
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<code><br />
while read p; do echo -n $p\: && echo -n "matthias" | openssl enc -e -des-ede3 -nosalt -nopad -pass pass:$p | xxd -p; done < passwords.txt<br />
</code><br />
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For this to work, I pre-processed the top 100 passwords file with:<br />
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<code><br />
cat adobe-top100.txt | cut -c51- > passwords.txt<br />
</code><br />
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…and then trimmed the cruft with a text editor (leading text paragraph and table headers). So far no luck; perhaps someone with more time on their hands can try some obvious XKCD-related passwords (I've tried XKCD, xkcd, xkcd.com, randall, rmunroe, encryptic, and Encrytic) and see if the encrypted version(s) match up with what we have here. [[User:Yaztromo|Yaztromo]] ([[User talk:Yaztromo|talk]]) 09:27, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
:I should mention that I've also tried OpenSSL's des-ede mode and des-ecb, as Im not sure if Randall used one, two, or three key mode. I'm also assuming the key has been generated from the password using OpenSSL's default key generation method, any of with I suppose could be incorrect. [[User:Yaztromo|Yaztromo]] ([[User talk:Yaztromo|talk]]) 09:39, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
:: Nice work. Note that the puzzle is very specific about using "block mode 3-DES" (usually called "ECB"). DES keys are actually 56 bits; each of the 8 bytes has odd parity (the number of 1 bits is odd). From [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_Encryption_Standard wp], "Bits 8, 16,..., 64 are for use in ensuring that each byte is of odd parity." As a wild guess, I'd suggest that, if Randall chose a readable 8-ASCII-character passphrase, he also selected only characters that would make the parity bit zero (so that the result was ASCII). That is, <code><nowiki>[ #%&)*,/12478;=>@CEFIJLOQRTWX[]^abdghkmnpsuvyz|]</nowiki></code>. [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 16:34, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
::: Uh, hold one. Read the "Explanation" section above. It's clear that the hashes are not real, so brute-forcing the key isn't going to work. [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 16:48, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
:::: Just to note, there are actually three options for keys in TripleDES: having three independent keys (K1, K2, K3), having two independent keys (K1, K2, K1), or using a single key (K1, K1, K1). When run in ECB mode, OpenSSL calls these '''des-ede3''' and '''des-ede''' for options 1 and 2 (option 3 is for backwards compatibility with DES, and can be run using just '''des-ecb'''). See [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_DES#Keying_options Triple DES - Keying Options] for details. In addition, the password and the key are two different entities -- typically the password is run through a keying algorithm first (commonly [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PBKDF2 PBKDF2] for 3DES), so there is no need to select password characters based on parity patterns. All of which is moot now that we know that the data isn't in fact TripleDES encrypted in the first place. I'm actually disappointed in Randall now :P. [[User:Yaztromo|Yaztromo]] ([[User talk:Yaztromo|talk]]) 19:01, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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I Hadn't seen it mentioned yet, but Monster Mash was written by Robert George Pickett (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Pickett), Whose last name goes closely with the second clue, Purloined, which means "stolen". I can't make it work, but I figured it was worth pointing out. (Nov 5th 1:26 pm utc ) [[Special:Contributions/173.245.56.24|173.245.56.24]] 13:27, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: It's a good connection. Maybe we should reorganize the discussion and start a list of "interesting ideas we can't quite make work" in the hopes that someone else has an insight. Edgar Allan / Alan Alda, Pickett / "Pick it", Klinger / Kingler, etc. Most of these are just manifestation of the human brain's ability to find patterns even in random coincidence, of course, but one of them might be on the right track. [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 16:23, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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Just quick thoughts. <br />
I feel like Cpl klinger and the water type kingler is too solid a connection to ignore even though I can't really use it. <br />
Kingler was owned in the series by Ash. <br />
Ash is a three letter word and the last three letters of the phrase monstermash. <br />
Monsterm=8 letters so the first block ash=3 letters in the second block. <br />
Monsterm is about the monster.com thing, therefore purloined. It's a double reference, the .co has been purloined from the purloined website. <br />
Then blastoise -3, or rather blastois3 - 3 (mocking the common password meme of replacing letters with numbers) <br />
So the last password, which is super hard to guess and well chosen even with the clue is, blastoisash? It's a feasibly memorable password that would not be quickly forgotten by a pokemon fan while still being hard to guess. <br />
Can you think of a way to check it? Maybe go into the old command line xkcd and try it as a password? (From a contributor to my talk page) --[[User:Jeff|<b><font color="orange">Jeff</font></b>]] ([[User talk:Jeff|talk]]) 13:52, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: That's really a stretch. ".co is purloined from monster.com?" really? The answer will be far more obviously correct... once we figure it out. Look at the other answers, for example. [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 16:23, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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;another quick idea for monster mash<br />
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It could be deflection. Maybe whoever put it in was paranoid. Or just dumb. Or who knows.<br />
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But, there is a pokemon that's in the monster/water(-1) hybrid group called Marshtomp.<br />
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Monster mash, mashed (ie anagrammed) can give us all but the P out of that... which is fine, as it's a 9-letter name.<br />
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Thus we have E, N and S left over (and indeed a further T, H, E), which could become overall, e.g, Marshtomens (...Marshtomethens? Or w/e), which you can split up as you like to represent something which has been stolen (personally). Possibly in german slang or something. It doesn't have to be a direct thesaurus link, it could well be complete misdirection (on Randall's behalf, or that of his notional Adobe user), same as for the pokemon.<br />
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And for the pokemon itself, it could well be "Marshtomp3" ;)<br />
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Also, don't forget about reversed words and so-on.<br />
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Heck, I've used very personal and/or random things (like, maybe two or three people in the world may recognise it in connection with me, and it's not online, at least not anywhere it can be found - basically it's just in my head and dies with me), reversed, with numbers substituting random characters, as passwords before. That covers each individual base in just one PW...<br />
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Now we just have to start feeding the guesses into a hash engine and try to figure out, maybe brute force, what the original key was. Knowing almost all of the other answers already makes this far, far easier for those who may have the facility to run the tests already. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.213|141.101.99.213]] 14:54, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
: This is not a real excerpt from the password file, this is a puzzle which Randall made up. Therefore, the answer to the last group will not be random, and it will not be a stretch. It will be obvious (as obvious as the previous ones)... once we figure out the catch. [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 16:23, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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FWIW, Eve Online also features a "Purloined Sansha Codebreaker". [[User:Cscott|Cscott]] ([[User talk:Cscott|talk]]) 17:16, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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I agree that the solution has to be obvious - especially after its revealed. If this were a crossword puzzle, then the clues like Purloined might be followed by a question mark. Purloined? a cat that is loined - a cat that is covered with cloths? Puss in boots? Or something along those lines... [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.34|108.162.215.34]]rbnm<br />
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purloined=phished (Corphish)? {{unsigned ip|108.162.216.227}}<br />
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i wonder if the link between the last three clues is more like a cryptic crossword puzzle---for instance, --purloined= heisted; the other clues reading it as he/is/ted...?--[[User:Wwd|Wwd]] ([[User talk:Wwd|talk]]) 22:40, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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I wonder if the pokemon could be the name of an ubuntu release, per "Not Really Into Pokemon" at http://xkcd.com/178/ --[[User:Willowy burrito|Willowy burrito]] ([[User talk:Willowy burrito|talk]]) 22:45, 5 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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You could also abbreviate Robert Pickett's name (the co-writer of Monster Mash) as "Rob Pickett" which goes even more with purloined (the first 8 letters are now "Rob Pick"). {{unsigned|Davheld}}<br />
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;Capitalization hints?<br />
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I have no idea who first put the capital letters in "MASH" and "Purloined" in the transcript (and I don't want to check), but now that I've gotten rid of the second (after somebody else got rid of the first), I want to record them here for the record. Possibly Randall put them in and was feeding us clues (so ''MASH'' the book or movie, and ''Purloined'' a title such as Poe's). I consider this unlikely (after all, I removed one of these capitalizations), but the possibility should be recorded. —[[User:TobyBartels|TobyBartels]] ([[User talk:TobyBartels|talk]]) 01:17, 6 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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I can't be a coincidence that this comes up as the top google news search for 'purloined:' http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/11/05/adobe_users_purloined_passwords_were_pathetic/ {{unsigned ip|108.162.246.120}}<br />
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"38a7c9279cadeb44 9dca1d79d4dec6d5 he did the mash, he did the": Ministermash (sounds like monster mash)<br />
"38a7c9279cadeb44 purloined": Minister (based on the character Minister D-, who stole the letter in the Edgar Allen Poe story) <br />
"a8ae5754a2b7af7a 9dca1d79d4dec6d5 fav water-3 pokemon": OmastarSmash (Shell Smash Omastar)<br />
So,38a7c9279cadeb44 = minister, 9dca1d79d4dec6d5 = mash, a8ae5754a2b7af7a = omastars<br />
04:07, 6 November 2013 (UTC)<br />
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I suggest "alligato" (a form of Latin ''alligatus'', perfect passive participle of ''alligo'' "bind up"), and "alligator" (Referencing "Land of 1000 Dances"). [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.62|199.27.128.62]] 05:37, 6 November 2013 (UTC)</div>199.27.128.62