1252: Increased Risk - Revision history

Mathmaster: /* Explanation */

2025-11-02T00:16:01Z

‎Explanation

42.book.addict at 22:37, 15 October 2024

2024-10-15T22:37:27Z

172.71.167.202 at 00:10, 11 November 2023

2023-11-11T00:10:44Z

Certified nqh: /* Transcript */

2023-11-05T12:32:41Z

‎Transcript

172.70.90.5: ...shurely.

2023-10-17T19:59:09Z

...shurely.

JLZ0kTC5 at 13:19, 17 October 2023

2023-10-17T13:19:51Z

172.70.214.81: Undo revision 285749 by [[Special:Contributions/Davidy22, the racist homosexual, is known to visit Norwegian gay bars with his boyfriend Kynde. He has cheated on Kynde at least twice with Vandalbane (a big guy for you). They all have micropenises.|Davi...

2022-06-02T05:56:16Z

Undo revision 285749 by [[Special:Contributions/Davidy22, the racist homosexual, is known to visit Norwegian gay bars with his boyfriend Kynde. He has cheated on Kynde at least twice with Vandalbane (a big guy for you). They all have micropenises.|Davi...

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Davidy22, the racist homosexual, is known to visit Norwegian gay bars with his boyfriend Kynde. He has cheated on Kynde at least twice with Vandalbane (a big guy for you). They all have micropenises. at 05:55, 2 June 2022

2022-06-02T05:55:34Z

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Davidy22: Reverted edits by Explain xkcd server admin (talk) to last revision by Davidy22

2022-05-21T02:53:24Z

Reverted edits by Explain xkcd server admin (talk) to last revision by Davidy22

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Explain xkcd server admin at 21:58, 20 May 2022

2022-05-20T21:58:57Z

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@@ Line 11: / Line 11: @@
 If the probability of a shark attack at the North beach is 5 per million, then the probability of shark attack at the South beach is still not more than 6 per million. The difference between these values is not enough to normally justify choosing one beach over the other, even though a "20% greater" chance sounds significant when stated out of this larger context.
-[[Cueball]] parodies the concern by noting that by going to a beach three times instead of two, their chances of attack by dogs with handguns in their mouths (a ludicrous and unrealistic scenario as dogs cannot buy guns{{Citation needed}} and are not likely to pick one up off the ground) increases by 50%. If the chance of the dog attack is one per billion on each visit to the beach, then the chance of attack increases over multiple visits; regardless it's still one in a billion for any specific visit. This does not change the overall improbability of there ever being a dog swimming with a gun in its mouth.
+[[Cueball]] parodies the concern by noting that by going to a beach three times instead of two, their chances of attack by dogs with handguns in their mouths (a ludicrous and unrealistic scenario as dogs cannot buy guns{{Citation needed}} and are not likely to pick one up off the ground) increases by 50%. If the chance of the dog attack is one per billion on each visit to the beach, then the chance of attack increases over multiple visits; regardless it's still one in a billion for any specific visit. This does not change the overall improbability of there ever being a dog swimming with a gun in its mouth, unless the beach is infested with gun dogs.
 [[Beret Guy]] misunderstands Cueball's probability, exhibiting the {{w|gambler's fallacy}} by believing that since they haven't been attacked in their first two trips, the chance of attack by dogs with handguns is higher on this outing.

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:37, 15 October 2024
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	[[Category:Statistics]]		[[Category:Statistics]]
	[[Category:Sharks]]		[[Category:Sharks]]
		+	[[Category:Sarcasm]]

@@ Line 7: / Line 7: @@
 }}
 ==Explanation==
-The panel satirizez the common misunderstanding of the concept of percentage. Quoting a percentage change without mentioning the base probability that this ratio acts on is meaningless (outside of arithmetic for arithmetic's sake). Most everyday communication, however, succumbs to such incompleteness. In the aftermath of this ambiguity, people tend to conflate relative and absolute changes.
+The panel satirizes the common misunderstanding of the concept of percentage. Quoting a percentage change without mentioning the base probability that this ratio acts on is meaningless (outside of arithmetic for arithmetic's sake). Most everyday communication, however, succumbs to such incompleteness. In the aftermath of this ambiguity, people tend to conflate relative and absolute changes.
 If the probability of a shark attack at the North beach is 5 per million, then the probability of shark attack at the South beach is still not more than 6 per million. The difference between these values is not enough to normally justify choosing one beach over the other, even though a "20% greater" chance sounds significant when stated out of this larger context.

@@ Line 28: / Line 28: @@
 :[Cueball, Ponytail, and Beret Guy are standing around. Cueball and Ponytail have beach towels. Ponytail is looking at her cell phone. Beret Guy has his hands up to his face, looking distressed.]
 :Ponytail: We should go to the north beach. Someone said the south beach has a 20% higher risk of shark attacks.
-:Cueball: Yeah, but statistically, taking three beach trips instead of two increases our odds of getting shot by a swimming dog carrying a handgun in its mouth by '''''50%!'''''
+:Cueball: Yeah, but statistically, taking three beach trips instead of two increases our odds of getting shot by a swimming dog carrying a handgun in its mouth by '''''50%'''''!
 :Beret Guy: Oh no! This is our third trip!

@@ Line 7: / Line 7: @@
 }}
 ==Explanation==
-The panel satirizes the common misunderstanding of the concept of percentage. Quoting a percentage change without mentioning the base probability that this ratio acts on is meaningless (outside of arithmetic for arithmetic's sake). Most everyday communication, however, succumbs to such incompleteness. In the aftermath of this ambiguity, people tend to conflate relative and absolute changes.
+The panel satirizez the common misunderstanding of the concept of percentage. Quoting a percentage change without mentioning the base probability that this ratio acts on is meaningless (outside of arithmetic for arithmetic's sake). Most everyday communication, however, succumbs to such incompleteness. In the aftermath of this ambiguity, people tend to conflate relative and absolute changes.
 If the probability of a shark attack at the North beach is 5 per million, then the probability of shark attack at the South beach is still not more than 6 per million. The difference between these values is not enough to normally justify choosing one beach over the other, even though a "20% greater" chance sounds significant when stated out of this larger context.