1282: Monty Hall - Revision history

2600:6C51:5100:A75:3467:8C86:2ED6:9186 at 16:39, 10 May 2026

2026-05-10T16:39:44Z

2600:6C51:5100:A75:10E7:EF:5A75:C8A4 at 18:46, 7 May 2026

2026-05-07T18:46:11Z

172.69.135.144: /* Explanation */

2024-12-18T05:31:53Z

‎Explanation

172.69.22.163: /* Explanation */

2024-01-18T08:17:19Z

‎Explanation

84596Gamma: /* Explanation */

2023-08-14T00:38:40Z

‎Explanation

Mat0329Lo: /* The Monty Hall Problem */

2023-05-29T18:10:48Z

‎The Monty Hall Problem

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2022-05-26T19:57:59Z

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@@ Line 8: / Line 8: @@
 ==Explanation==
-This comic is a reference to the US game show ''{{w|Let's Make a Deal}}'', and specifically the {{w|Monty Hall problem}}, probability puzzle based on the show and named after its original host, {{w|Monty Hall}}. The premise of the show was that Hall would offer "deals" to contestants pulled from the audience in which they could win cash and prizes. Some deals involved games/tasks the contestant had to perform, while others simply involved the contestant making choices between a series of doors or boxes. In such games of choice, there were often several prizes and typically at least one "zonk", the show's name for an undesirable "gag" prize, which on the original Monty Hall version of the show were frequently animals such as goats.
+This comic is a reference to the US game show ''{{w|Let's Make a Deal}}'', and specifically the {{w|Monty Hall problem}}, a probability puzzle based on the show and named after its original host, {{w|Monty Hall}}. The premise of the show was that Hall would offer "deals" to contestants pulled from the audience in which they could win cash and prizes. Some deals involved games/tasks the contestant had to perform, while others simply involved the contestant making choices between a series of doors or boxes. In such games of choice, there were often several prizes and typically at least one "zonk", the show's name for an undesirable "gag" prize, which on the original Monty Hall version of the show were frequently animals such as goats.
 The entire premise of a "zonk" is that the contestant would be disappointed. Goats were a common "zonk," and it's assumed most contestants would have no ability to house, and no use for, a domestic goat. The comic shows that [[Beret Guy]], upon the host revealing that door B has a goat behind it, chooses to take the goat to keep as a pet, which makes them both very happy. This is much like, and may be an allusion to, the Simpsons episode {{w|Bart Gets an Elephant}}, in which Bart opts for the gag prize of an African Elephant rather than the $10,000 award. According to an [http://www.tvparty.com/gamemonty2.html interview] with Monty Hall, several contestants actually decided to keep the animals; although rare, it was allowed since the animals were offered as prizes (and they were a lot more expensive than the consolation cash prize).

@@ Line 8: / Line 8: @@
 ==Explanation==
-This comic is a reference to the US game show ''{{w|Let's Make a Deal}}'', a probability puzzle based on the show and named after its original host, {{w|Monty Hall}}. The premise of the show was that Hall would offer "deals" to contestants pulled from the audience in which they could win cash and prizes. Some deals involved games/tasks the contestant had to perform, while others simply involved the contestant making choices between a series of doors or boxes. In such games of choice, there were often several prizes and typically at least one "zonk", the show's name for an undesirable "gag" prize, which on the original Monty Hall version of the show were frequently animals such as goats.
+This comic is a reference to the US game show ''{{w|Let's Make a Deal}}'', and specifically the {{w|Monty Hall problem}}, probability puzzle based on the show and named after its original host, {{w|Monty Hall}}. The premise of the show was that Hall would offer "deals" to contestants pulled from the audience in which they could win cash and prizes. Some deals involved games/tasks the contestant had to perform, while others simply involved the contestant making choices between a series of doors or boxes. In such games of choice, there were often several prizes and typically at least one "zonk", the show's name for an undesirable "gag" prize, which on the original Monty Hall version of the show were frequently animals such as goats.
 The entire premise of a "zonk" is that the contestant would be disappointed. Goats were a common "zonk," and it's assumed most contestants would have no ability to house, and no use for, a domestic goat. The comic shows that [[Beret Guy]], upon the host revealing that door B has a goat behind it, chooses to take the goat to keep as a pet, which makes them both very happy. This is much like, and may be an allusion to, the Simpsons episode {{w|Bart Gets an Elephant}}, in which Bart opts for the gag prize of an African Elephant rather than the $10,000 award. According to an [http://www.tvparty.com/gamemonty2.html interview] with Monty Hall, several contestants actually decided to keep the animals; although rare, it was allowed since the animals were offered as prizes (and they were a lot more expensive than the consolation cash prize).

@@ Line 8: / Line 8: @@
 ==Explanation==
-This comic is a reference to the US game show ''{{w|Let's Make a Deal}}'', and more specifically the {{w|Monty Hall problem}}, a probability puzzle based on the show and named after its original host, {{w|Monty Hall}}. The premise of the show was that Hall would offer "deals" to contestants pulled from the audience in which they could win cash and prizes. Some deals involved games/tasks the contestant had to perform, while others simply involved the contestant making choices between a series of doors or boxes. In such games of choice, there were often several prizes and typically at least one "zonk", the show's name for an undesirable "gag" prize, which on the original Monty Hall version of the show were frequently animals such as goats.
+This comic is a reference to the US game show ''{{w|Let's Make a Deal}}'', a probability puzzle based on the show and named after its original host, {{w|Monty Hall}}. The premise of the show was that Hall would offer "deals" to contestants pulled from the audience in which they could win cash and prizes. Some deals involved games/tasks the contestant had to perform, while others simply involved the contestant making choices between a series of doors or boxes. In such games of choice, there were often several prizes and typically at least one "zonk", the show's name for an undesirable "gag" prize, which on the original Monty Hall version of the show were frequently animals such as goats.
-In the {{tvtropes|MontyHallProblem|classic version of the Monty Hall Problem}} (which was never featured on the show exactly as written, but does otherwise match the aesthetics of the show) a contestant is offered a choice of three doors. Behind two of the doors are goats, and behind one of them is a car. First, the contestant chooses a door, which remains closed. The host then opens one of the two remaining doors and reveals a goat. The contestant is then offered a final choice of whether to switch their choice to the remaining closed door, or keep the door they originally chose. The problem involves an analysis of the probability of the contestant choosing the car given certain circumstances.
+The entire premise of a "zonk" is that the contestant would be disappointed. Goats were a common "zonk," and it's assumed most contestants would have no ability to house, and no use for, a domestic goat. The comic shows that [[Beret Guy]], upon the host revealing that door B has a goat behind it, chooses to take the goat to keep as a pet, which makes them both very happy. This is much like, and may be an allusion to, the Simpsons episode {{w|Bart Gets an Elephant}}, in which Bart opts for the gag prize of an African Elephant rather than the $10,000 award. According to an [http://www.tvparty.com/gamemonty2.html interview] with Monty Hall, several contestants actually decided to keep the animals; although rare, it was allowed since the animals were offered as prizes (and they were a lot more expensive than the consolation cash prize).
-The problem assumes that a contestant would want to win a car, and would be disappointed to win a goat, which most contestants would have no ability to house, and no use for. The comic shows that [[Beret Guy]], upon the host revealing that door B has a goat behind it, chooses to take the goat to keep as a pet, which makes them both very happy. This is much like, and may be an allusion to, the Simpsons episode {{w|Bart Gets an Elephant}}, in which Bart opts for the gag prize of an African Elephant rather than the $10,000 award. According to an [http://www.tvparty.com/gamemonty2.html interview] with Monty Hall, several contestants actually decided to keep the animals; although rare, it was allowed since the animals were offered as prizes (and they were a lot more expensive than the consolation cash prize).
+The comic features Monty standing beside three doors, two visible reading "A" and "C" with the open door between them presumably labeled "B." This specifically is a reference to the {{w|Monty Hall problem}}, which was never featured on the show exactly as written but does otherwise match the aesthetics of the show. In the {{tvtropes|MontyHallProblem|classic version of the Monty Hall Problem}} a contestant is offered a choice of three doors. Behind two of the doors are goats serving in their traditional "zonk" role, and behind one of them is a car as the (intended) correct prize. First, the contestant chooses a door, which remains closed. The host then opens one of the two remaining doors and reveals a goat. The contestant is then offered a final choice of whether to switch their choice to the remaining closed door, or keep the door they originally chose. The problem involves an analysis of the probability of the contestant choosing the car given certain circumstances. We have detailed more about the Monty Hall problem below.
 The title text references the car and the other goat, untouched behind the remaining doors, and spoofs that the other goat will perform a car heist and drive away.

@@ Line 10: / Line 10: @@
 This comic is a reference to the US game show ''{{w|Let's Make a Deal}}'', and more specifically the {{w|Monty Hall problem}}, a probability puzzle based on the show and named after its original host, {{w|Monty Hall}}. The premise of the show was that Hall would offer "deals" to contestants pulled from the audience in which they could win cash and prizes. Some deals involved games/tasks the contestant had to perform, while others simply involved the contestant making choices between a series of doors or boxes. In such games of choice, there were often several prizes and typically at least one "zonk", the show's name for an undesirable "gag" prize, which on the original Monty Hall version of the show were frequently animals such as goats.
-In the {{tvtropes|MontyHallProblem|classic version of the Monty Hall Problem}}, a contestant is offered a choice of three doors. Behind two of the doors are goats, and behind one of them is a car. First, the contestant chooses a door, which remains closed. The host then opens one of the two remaining doors and reveals a goat. The contestant is then offered a final choice of whether to switch their choice to the remaining closed door, or keep the door they originally chose. The problem involves an analysis of the probability of the contestant choosing the car given certain circumstances.
+In the {{tvtropes|MontyHallProblem|classic version of the Monty Hall Problem}} (which was never featured on the show exactly as written, but does otherwise match the aesthetics of the show) a contestant is offered a choice of three doors. Behind two of the doors are goats, and behind one of them is a car. First, the contestant chooses a door, which remains closed. The host then opens one of the two remaining doors and reveals a goat. The contestant is then offered a final choice of whether to switch their choice to the remaining closed door, or keep the door they originally chose. The problem involves an analysis of the probability of the contestant choosing the car given certain circumstances.
 The problem assumes that a contestant would want to win a car, and would be disappointed to win a goat, which most contestants would have no ability to house, and no use for. The comic shows that [[Beret Guy]], upon the host revealing that door B has a goat behind it, chooses to take the goat to keep as a pet, which makes them both very happy. This is much like, and may be an allusion to, the Simpsons episode {{w|Bart Gets an Elephant}}, in which Bart opts for the gag prize of an African Elephant rather than the $10,000 award. According to an [http://www.tvparty.com/gamemonty2.html interview] with Monty Hall, several contestants actually decided to keep the animals; although rare, it was allowed since the animals were offered as prizes (and they were a lot more expensive than the consolation cash prize).

@@ Line 14: / Line 14: @@
 The problem assumes that a contestant would want to win a car, and would be disappointed to win a goat, which most contestants would have no ability to house, and no use for. The comic shows that [[Beret Guy]], upon the host revealing that door B has a goat behind it, chooses to take the goat to keep as a pet, which makes them both very happy. This is much like, and may be an allusion to, the Simpsons episode {{w|Bart Gets an Elephant}}, in which Bart opts for the gag prize of an African Elephant rather than the $10,000 award. According to an [http://www.tvparty.com/gamemonty2.html interview] with Monty Hall, several contestants actually decided to keep the animals; although rare, it was allowed since the animals were offered as prizes (and they were a lot more expensive than the consolation cash prize).
-The title text references the car and the other goat, untouched behind the remaining doors.
+The title text references the car and the other goat, untouched behind the remaining doors, and spoofs that the other goat will perform a car heist and drive away.
 ===The Monty Hall Problem===

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:10, 29 May 2023
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	[[File:montyforexplainxkcd.png]]		[[File:montyforexplainxkcd.png]]
		+	<!-- Alter to make 1 car, 2 goat, and 3 goat like in comic? -->

	However, assuming that the host has knowledge of which doors contain goats, and that their choice of which door to open is always an unchosen door containing a goat, it is actually twice as likely that the contestant will win the car if they switch than if they keep their original choice. This is because the contestant initially had a one-in-three chance of choosing the car and a two-in-three chance of choosing a goat. Switching always wins the car in those two-thirds of cases where the contestant initially chose a goat. The probability of winning by switching is therefore the same as the probability that the contestant initially chose a goat.		However, assuming that the host has knowledge of which doors contain goats, and that their choice of which door to open is always an unchosen door containing a goat, it is actually twice as likely that the contestant will win the car if they switch than if they keep their original choice. This is because the contestant initially had a one-in-three chance of choosing the car and a two-in-three chance of choosing a goat. Switching always wins the car in those two-thirds of cases where the contestant initially chose a goat. The probability of winning by switching is therefore the same as the probability that the contestant initially chose a goat.