1827: Survivorship Bias - Revision history

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‎Explanation

172.70.90.155: /* Explanation */ ...really needs a good link for 'flexing', but that's what he's doing.

2023-06-16T16:58:37Z

‎Explanation: ...really needs a good link for 'flexing', but that's what he's doing.

Tromag at 15:59, 16 June 2023

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← Older revision		Revision as of 08:55, 15 December 2025
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← Older revision		Revision as of 16:46, 2 March 2025
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	[[Category:Cognitive Bias]]		[[Category:Cognitive Bias]]
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 As the title and caption both suggest, a major problem with these speeches is {{w|survivorship bias}}. Survivorship bias refers to an issue in statistical analysis where a significant portion of potential cases aren't available to be counted, and therefore aren't included in the statistics, which creates a data set which is biased toward the cases that are counted. In this case, the people who are invited to and willing to give such speeches are overwhelmingly people who achieved success. People who are unsuccessful tend not to be highlighted or publicized, even if they followed the same path and made the same efforts as those who became successful.  This is especially important because achieving success usually involves taking risks. If those risks pay off and result in success, a person will often be lauded as an example of achievement, but if the risk doesn't pay off, they'll often be ignored. This can result in a skewed view of how certain risks are to result in positive outcomes.
-To parody this concept, the comic shows [[Hairy]] encouraging people to "never stop buying {{w|lottery}} tickets", and surrounded by bags of money to 'flex' their (eventual) financial success, This is an terribly unwise investment plan{{citation needed}} because the chances of winning large jackpots are mathematically very low, even if a person buys huge numbers of tickets. With very few{{citation needed}} exceptions, people who play the lottery lose far more money than they win. But, because of the existence very large jackpots, a few people will win enough money to become genuinely wealthy. If our only exposure to lottery players is someone who won a major jackpot, it could give a false impression that continually buying tickets is a good strategy, when in reality, the odds are astronomical against making money that way. In the same way, talks from people who took risks and became successful can give us a false impression about the likelihood of success in any other field of endeavor.
+To parody this concept, the comic shows [[Hairy]] encouraging people to "never stop buying {{w|lottery}} tickets", and surrounded by bags of money to 'flex' their (eventual) financial success, This is an terribly unwise investment plan, because the chances of winning large jackpots are mathematically very low, even if a person buys huge numbers of tickets. With very few exceptions, people who play the lottery lose far more money than they win. But, because of the existence very large jackpots, a few people will win enough money to become genuinely wealthy. If our only exposure to lottery players is someone who won a major jackpot, it could give a false impression that continually buying tickets is a good strategy, when in reality, the odds are astronomical against making money that way. In the same way, talks from people who took risks and became successful can give us a false impression about the likelihood of success in any other field of endeavor.
 The title text continues the humor by taking two common aspects of inspirational speeches. One is the claim that "you can't argue with success", suggesting that advice from successful people must inherently be good. The other is that "if you stick with it, you can [do] anything". Randall plays those two off one another, since one is a claim of what you can't do, and the other insists that there's nothing you can't do.

@@ Line 14: / Line 14: @@
 As the title and caption both suggest, a major problem with these speeches is {{w|survivorship bias}}. Survivorship bias refers to an issue in statistical analysis where a significant portion of potential cases aren't available to be counted, and therefore aren't included in the statistics, which creates a data set which is biased toward the cases that are counted. In this case, the people who are invited to and willing to give such speeches are overwhelmingly people who achieved success. People who are unsuccessful tend not to be highlighted or publicized, even if they followed the same path and made the same efforts as those who became successful.  This is especially important because achieving success usually involves taking risks. If those risks pay off and result in success, a person will often be lauded as an example of achievement, but if the risk doesn't pay off, they'll often be ignored. This can result in a skewed view of how certain risks are to result in positive outcomes.
-To parody this concept, the comic shows [[Hairy]] encouraging people to "never stop buying {{w|lottery}} tickets", and surrounded by bags of money to 'flex' their (eventual) financial success, This is an terribly unwise investment plan, because the chances of winning large jackpots are mathematically very low, even if a person buys huge numbers of tickets. With very few exceptions, people who play the lottery lose far more money than they win. But, because of the existence very large jackpots, a few people will win enough money to become genuinely wealthy. If our only exposure to lottery players is someone who won a major jackpot, it could give a false impression that continually buying tickets is a good strategy, when in reality, the odds are astronomical against making money that way. In the same way, talks from people who took risks and became successful can give us a false impression about the likelihood of success in any other field of endeavor.
+To parody this concept, the comic shows [[Hairy]] encouraging people to "never stop buying {{w|lottery}} tickets", and surrounded by bags of money to 'flex' their (eventual) financial success, This is an terribly unwise investment plan{{citation needed}} because the chances of winning large jackpots are mathematically very low, even if a person buys huge numbers of tickets. With very few{{citation needed}} exceptions, people who play the lottery lose far more money than they win. But, because of the existence very large jackpots, a few people will win enough money to become genuinely wealthy. If our only exposure to lottery players is someone who won a major jackpot, it could give a false impression that continually buying tickets is a good strategy, when in reality, the odds are astronomical against making money that way. In the same way, talks from people who took risks and became successful can give us a false impression about the likelihood of success in any other field of endeavor.
 The title text continues the humor by taking two common aspects of inspirational speeches. One is the claim that "you can't argue with success", suggesting that advice from successful people must inherently be good. The other is that "if you stick with it, you can [do] anything". Randall plays those two off one another, since one is a claim of what you can't do, and the other insists that there's nothing you can't do.

@@ Line 10: / Line 10: @@
 This comic is a parody of entrepreneurial speeches. Entrepreneurial speeches are talks, such as graduation commencements or motivational speeches. The idea behind graduation commencements is that the entrepreneur, having accumulated wisdom and experience in the process of becoming successful, will share his insights and experience to the students, in the hope that they learn lessons that will help them achieve success as well. Companies hire motivational speakers to motivate employees to work hard.
-A common theme in these talks is that the entrepreneur succeeded by persisting through hardship, sometimes despite other people telling them they would be better off giving up. They advise students to do the same, and to keep pursuing their dreams even through subsequent failure. While this isn't necessarily bad business advice, this can give students a biased vision of reality, and lead them to imagine that they will succeed as long as they keep trying.
+A common theme in these talks is that the entrepreneur succeeded by persisting through hardship, sometimes despite other people telling them they would be better off giving up. They advise students to do the same, and to keep pursuing their dreams even through subsequent failure. Their message can be highlighted by demonstrating such successes by visual props such as the medals they won, or images of their encounters with other notably famous people. While this isn't necessarily bad business advice, this can give students a biased vision of reality, and lead them to imagine that they will succeed as long as they keep trying.
 As the title and caption both suggest, a major problem with these speeches is {{w|survivorship bias}}. Survivorship bias refers to an issue in statistical analysis where a significant portion of potential cases aren't available to be counted, and therefore aren't included in the statistics, which creates a data set which is biased toward the cases that are counted. In this case, the people who are invited to and willing to give such speeches are overwhelmingly people who achieved success. People who are unsuccessful tend not to be highlighted or publicized, even if they followed the same path and made the same efforts as those who became successful.  This is especially important because achieving success usually involves taking risks. If those risks pay off and result in success, a person will often be lauded as an example of achievement, but if the risk doesn't pay off, they'll often be ignored. This can result in a skewed view of how certain risks are to result in positive outcomes.
-To parody this concept, the comic shows [[Hairy]], surrounded by bags of money, encouraging people to "never stop buying {{w|lottery}} tickets". This is an terribly unwise investment plan, because the chances of winning large jackpots are mathematically very low, even if a person buys huge numbers of tickets. With very few exceptions, people who play the lottery lose far more money than they win. But, because of the existence very large jackpots, a few people will win enough money to become genuinely wealthy. If our only exposure to lottery players is someone who won a major jackpot, it could give a false impression that continually buying tickets is a good strategy, when in reality, the odds are astronomical against making money that way. In the same way, talks from people who took risks and became successful can give us a false impression about the likelihood of success in any other field of endeavor.
+To parody this concept, the comic shows [[Hairy]] encouraging people to "never stop buying {{w|lottery}} tickets", and surrounded by bags of money to 'flex' their (eventual) financial success, This is an terribly unwise investment plan, because the chances of winning large jackpots are mathematically very low, even if a person buys huge numbers of tickets. With very few exceptions, people who play the lottery lose far more money than they win. But, because of the existence very large jackpots, a few people will win enough money to become genuinely wealthy. If our only exposure to lottery players is someone who won a major jackpot, it could give a false impression that continually buying tickets is a good strategy, when in reality, the odds are astronomical against making money that way. In the same way, talks from people who took risks and became successful can give us a false impression about the likelihood of success in any other field of endeavor.
 ==Transcript==