2476: Base Rate - Revision history

Treeplate: rephrase for clarity

2025-11-02T21:29:31Z

rephrase for clarity

42.book.addict at 17:00, 10 September 2025

2025-09-10T17:00:09Z

CalibansCreations: /* Explanation */

2024-11-20T08:51:34Z

‎Explanation

172.70.85.177: /* Transcript */

2022-05-12T01:32:28Z

‎Transcript

Jacky720: rv

2022-05-04T23:47:58Z

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Ex Kay Cee Dee at 23:47, 4 May 2022

2022-05-04T23:47:52Z

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Jacky720: rv

2022-05-04T22:38:07Z

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Ex Kay Cee Dee at 22:08, 4 May 2022

2022-05-04T22:08:59Z

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Jacky720: rv

2022-05-04T21:11:15Z

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Ex Kay Cee Dee at 17:25, 4 May 2022

2022-05-04T17:25:35Z

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@@ Line 13: / Line 13: @@
 In this case, the joke is that 90% of people are right-handed, so if there is no connection between handedness and making base rate errors, then 90% of these errors would be made by right handers.  Thus while [[Cueball|Cueball's]] claim that right-handers commit 90% of base-rate errors is technically true, taking that as reason to believe that "making base-rate errors" is somehow specially associated with right-handed-ness -- as would be implied by an intervention effort specific to right-handed-people -- is itself a base-rate error.
-Cueball may be holding the pointer in his right hand, suggesting he might be right-handed (as 90% of stick figures are). Since Cueball has no facial features it is impossible to tell if he faces the audience, or looking at his graph. However, it seems most likely that he is looking at his audience while delivering the take home message and thus points at the graph behind him. Thus he likely belongs to the 90% that makes 90% of the base-rate errors, one of those he is just committing.
+Cueball may be holding the pointer in his right hand, suggesting he might be right-handed (as 90% of stick figures are). Since Cueball has no facial features it is impossible to tell if he faces the audience, or looking at his graph. However, it seems most likely that he is looking at his audience while delivering the take home message and thus points at the graph behind him. Thus he likely belongs to the category of people that make 90% of the base-rate errors, one of those he is just committing.
 In the title text, Cueball dismisses the idea of adjusting his graph to account for the difference in numbers of left-handed versus right-handed members of the population.  He suggests focusing efforts on the right-handed majority to resolve that 90% of base rate errors.  This is a somewhat common counterargument to statistical arguments of this stripe (often as justification for racial profiling, for example); it fails because if the target group is not in fact somehow special with regard to the issue at hand, there is generally "nothing to fix" and no special approach to discover that cannot be just as easily applied to the population of the whole.

@@ Line 13: / Line 13: @@
 In this case, the joke is that 90% of people are right-handed, so if there is no connection between handedness and making base rate errors, then 90% of these errors would be made by right handers.  Thus while [[Cueball|Cueball's]] claim that right-handers commit 90% of base-rate errors is technically true, taking that as reason to believe that "making base-rate errors" is somehow specially associated with right-handed-ness -- as would be implied by an intervention effort specific to right-handed-people -- is itself a base-rate error.
-Cueball may be holding the pointer in his right hand, suggesting he might be right-handed (as 90% of stick figures are).{{fact}} Since Cueball has no facial features it is impossible to tell if he faces the audience, or looking at his graph. However, it seems most likely that he is looking at his audience while delivering the take home message and thus points at the graph behind him. Thus he likely belongs to the 90% that makes 90% of the base-rate errors, one of those he is just committing.
+Cueball may be holding the pointer in his right hand, suggesting he might be right-handed (as 90% of stick figures are). Since Cueball has no facial features it is impossible to tell if he faces the audience, or looking at his graph. However, it seems most likely that he is looking at his audience while delivering the take home message and thus points at the graph behind him. Thus he likely belongs to the 90% that makes 90% of the base-rate errors, one of those he is just committing.
 In the title text, Cueball dismisses the idea of adjusting his graph to account for the difference in numbers of left-handed versus right-handed members of the population.  He suggests focusing efforts on the right-handed majority to resolve that 90% of base rate errors.  This is a somewhat common counterargument to statistical arguments of this stripe (often as justification for racial profiling, for example); it fails because if the target group is not in fact somehow special with regard to the issue at hand, there is generally "nothing to fix" and no special approach to discover that cannot be just as easily applied to the population of the whole.

@@ Line 13: / Line 13: @@
 In this case, the joke is that 90% of people are right-handed, so if there is no connection between handedness and making base rate errors, then 90% of these errors would be made by right handers.  Thus while [[Cueball|Cueball's]] claim that right-handers commit 90% of base-rate errors is technically true, taking that as reason to believe that "making base-rate errors" is somehow specially associated with right-handed-ness -- as would be implied by an intervention effort specific to right-handed-people -- is itself a base-rate error.
-Cueball may be holding the pointer in his right hand, suggesting he might be right-handed (as 90% of stick figures are{{fact}}).  Since Cueball has no facial features it is impossible to tell if he faces the audience, or looking at his graph. However, it seems most likely that he is looking at his audience while delivering the take home message and thus points at the graph behind him. Thus he likely belongs to the 90% that makes 90% of the base-rate errors, one of those he is just committing.
+Cueball may be holding the pointer in his right hand, suggesting he might be right-handed (as 90% of stick figures are).{{fact}} Since Cueball has no facial features it is impossible to tell if he faces the audience, or looking at his graph. However, it seems most likely that he is looking at his audience while delivering the take home message and thus points at the graph behind him. Thus he likely belongs to the 90% that makes 90% of the base-rate errors, one of those he is just committing.
 In the title text, Cueball dismisses the idea of adjusting his graph to account for the difference in numbers of left-handed versus right-handed members of the population.  He suggests focusing efforts on the right-handed majority to resolve that 90% of base rate errors.  This is a somewhat common counterargument to statistical arguments of this stripe (often as justification for racial profiling, for example); it fails because if the target group is not in fact somehow special with regard to the issue at hand, there is generally "nothing to fix" and no special approach to discover that cannot be just as easily applied to the population of the whole.

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:32, 12 May 2022
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	[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]		[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
	[[Category:Statistics]]		[[Category:Statistics]]
		+	[[Category:Cognitive Bias]]