3007: Probabilistic Uncertainty - Revision history

FaviFake: Moved trivia in expl.

2025-05-02T16:08:56Z

Moved trivia in expl.

DollarStoreBa'al at 16:00, 2 May 2025

2025-05-02T16:00:48Z

DollarStoreBa'al at 15:56, 2 May 2025

2025-05-02T15:56:38Z

FaviFake: Undo revision 375672 by DollarStoreBa'al (talk)

2025-04-30T18:03:40Z

Undo revision 375672 by DollarStoreBa'al (talk)

DollarStoreBa'al at 18:13, 29 April 2025

2025-04-29T18:13:20Z

FaviFake: /* Trivia */

2025-04-29T15:20:49Z

‎Trivia

172.69.70.234: Made the transcript a little easier to read, didn't find any other issues.

2025-04-05T12:09:56Z

Made the transcript a little easier to read, didn't find any other issues.

Treeplate at 00:50, 24 December 2024

2024-12-24T00:50:24Z

172.68.164.154: /* Transcript */

2024-12-22T16:09:44Z

‎Transcript

172.68.225.160 at 02:25, 14 December 2024

2024-12-14T02:25:10Z

@@ Line 10: / Line 10: @@
 ==Explanation==
+Furthermore, with regards to N/A - the odds of "precisely" 50/50 are probabilistically zero, unless the event under consideration is something relatively trivial such as a coinflip or die roll (and even with those it is extremely unlikely the coins or dice are perfectly "fair").  Any scenario that involves social sciences, such as an election (or even a single relationship) will never be precisely 50/50 (or, indeed, *any* discrete value).
 {| class="wikitable"
@@ Line 29: / Line 27: @@
 The title text is a joke making use of ambiguous wording: "researchers who are experts in emotional spirals" could either refer to researchers who study emotional spirals, or researchers who are undergoing emotional spirals themselves. Evidently, all the researchers "we" contacted were the latter, and thus unable to advise the comic.
 ==Transcript==
 [A table titled "Coping With Probabilistic Uncertainty", with two columns labeled "Scenario" and "How to think about it in an emotionally healthy way". The boxes in the Scenario column contains text followed by a rectangle split into two parts; the left part is a smiley face, the right part is a frowny face with slanted, angry eyes.]
@@ Line 44: / Line 43: @@
 :[Row 3, column 1:] "Precisely 50/50". The rectangle is split in half and both faces are equal sizes.
 :[Row 3, column 2:] "????? N/A ????"
 {{comic discussion}}

@@ Line 12: / Line 12: @@
-This comic is about the difficulty of dealing psychologically with 50/50 odds, and is likely inspired by the {{W|2024 United States presidential election}}, as this comic was released the day prior.  The odds of the election as reported by many media sources were close to 50/50, including sources such as [https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/ 270 to Win], [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html/ the New York Times], and [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ FiveThirtyEight], where the pre-election polls showed roughly a 50/50 chance of either {{w|Kamala Harris}} or {{w|Donald Trump}} being elected. It seems more and more people suffer from pre-election anxiety<ref>https://www.cnet.com/health/mental/stressed-about-election-day-9-expert-approved-protect-your-mental-health/</ref><ref>https://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2024-stress-anxiety-tips-experts/</ref><ref>https://jedfoundation.org/resource/election-stress-tips-to-manage-anxious-feelings-about-politics/</ref><ref>https://fortune.com/well/article/election-anxiety/</ref><ref>https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/us/politics/election-anxiety.html</ref> and the uncertainty of the results doesn't help.
+This comic is about the difficulty of dealing psychologically with 50/50 odds, and is likely inspired by the {{W|2024 United States presidential election}}, as this comic was released the day prior.  The odds of the election as reported by many media sources were close to 50/50, including sources such as [https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/ 270 to Win], [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html/ the New York Times], and [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ FiveThirtyEight]. Pre-election polls showed roughly a 50/50 chance of either {{w|Kamala Harris}} or {{w|Donald Trump}} being elected on these sites. It seems more and more people suffer from [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/us/politics/election-anxiety.html/ pre-election] [https://fortune.com/well/article/election-anxiety/ anxiety], and the uncertainty of the results doesn't help.
 Further, with regards to N/A - the odds of "precisely" 50/50 are probabilistically zero, unless the event under consideration is something relatively trivial such as a coinflip or die roll (and even with those it is extremely unlikely the coins or dice are perfectly "fair").  Any scenario that involves social sciences, such as an election (or even a single relationship) will never be precisely 50/50 (or, indeed, *any* discrete value).
@@ Line 50: / Line 49: @@
 * Randall had previously dealt with the possibility of a tied electoral count 12 years prior, in the ''[[what if? (blog)|what if?]]'' article ''{{what if|19|Tie Vote}}
 {{comic discussion}}

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:56, 2 May 2025
Line 12:		Line 12:


−	This comic is about the difficulty of dealing psychologically with 50/50 odds, and is likely inspired by the {{W\|2024 United States presidential election}}, as this comic was released the day prior. The odds of the election as reported by many media sources were close to 50/50~~<ref>~~https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/~~</ref><ref>~~https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html</~~ref><ref>~~https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/~~</ref>~~, where the pre-election polls showed roughly a 50/50 chance of either {{w\|Kamala Harris}} or {{w\|Donald Trump}} being elected. It seems more and more people suffer from pre-election anxiety<ref>https://www.cnet.com/health/mental/stressed-about-election-day-9-expert-approved-protect-your-mental-health/</ref><ref>https://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2024-stress-anxiety-tips-experts/</ref><ref>https://jedfoundation.org/resource/election-stress-tips-to-manage-anxious-feelings-about-politics/</ref><ref>https://fortune.com/well/article/election-anxiety/</ref><ref>https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/us/politics/election-anxiety.html</ref> and the uncertainty of the results doesn't help.	+	This comic is about the difficulty of dealing psychologically with 50/50 odds, and is likely inspired by the {{W\|2024 United States presidential election}}, as this comic was released the day prior. The odds of the election as reported by many media sources were close to 50/50, including sources such as [https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/ 270 to Win], [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html/ the New York Times], and [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ FiveThirtyEight], where the pre-election polls showed roughly a 50/50 chance of either {{w\|Kamala Harris}} or {{w\|Donald Trump}} being elected. It seems more and more people suffer from pre-election anxiety<ref>https://www.cnet.com/health/mental/stressed-about-election-day-9-expert-approved-protect-your-mental-health/</ref><ref>https://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2024-stress-anxiety-tips-experts/</ref><ref>https://jedfoundation.org/resource/election-stress-tips-to-manage-anxious-feelings-about-politics/</ref><ref>https://fortune.com/well/article/election-anxiety/</ref><ref>https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/us/politics/election-anxiety.html</ref> and the uncertainty of the results doesn't help.
	This 50/50 scenario is the third scenario shown in the comic.		This 50/50 scenario is the third scenario shown in the comic.

@@ Line 12: / Line 12: @@
-This comic is about the difficulty of dealing psychologically with 50/50 odds, and is likely inspired by the {{W|2024 United States presidential election}}, as this comic was released the day prior.  The odds of the election as reported by many media sources were close to 50/50, where the pre-election polls showed roughly a 50/50 chance of either {{w|Kamala Harris}} or {{w|Donald Trump}} being elected. It seems more and more people suffer from pre-election anxiety and the uncertainty of the results doesn't help.
+This comic is about the difficulty of dealing psychologically with 50/50 odds, and is likely inspired by the {{W|2024 United States presidential election}}, as this comic was released the day prior.  The odds of the election as reported by many media sources were close to 50/50<ref>https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/</ref><ref>https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html</ref><ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/</ref>, where the pre-election polls showed roughly a 50/50 chance of either {{w|Kamala Harris}} or {{w|Donald Trump}} being elected. It seems more and more people suffer from pre-election anxiety<ref>https://www.cnet.com/health/mental/stressed-about-election-day-9-expert-approved-protect-your-mental-health/</ref><ref>https://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2024-stress-anxiety-tips-experts/</ref><ref>https://jedfoundation.org/resource/election-stress-tips-to-manage-anxious-feelings-about-politics/</ref><ref>https://fortune.com/well/article/election-anxiety/</ref><ref>https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/us/politics/election-anxiety.html</ref> and the uncertainty of the results doesn't help.
 This 50/50 scenario is the third scenario shown in the comic.
@@ Line 51: / Line 51: @@
 * Randall had previously dealt with the possibility of a tied electoral count 12 years prior, in the ''[[what if? (blog)|what if?]]'' article ''{{what if|19|Tie Vote}}
 {{comic discussion}}

@@ Line 12: / Line 12: @@
-This comic is about the difficulty of dealing psychologically with 50/50 odds, and is likely inspired by the {{W|2024 United States presidential election}}, as this comic was released the day prior.  The odds of the election as reported by many media sources were close to 50/50<ref>https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/</ref><ref>https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html</ref><ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/</ref>, where the pre-election polls showed roughly a 50/50 chance of either {{w|Kamala Harris}} or {{w|Donald Trump}} being elected. It seems more and more people suffer from pre-election anxiety<ref>https://www.cnet.com/health/mental/stressed-about-election-day-9-expert-approved-protect-your-mental-health/</ref><ref>https://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2024-stress-anxiety-tips-experts/</ref><ref>https://jedfoundation.org/resource/election-stress-tips-to-manage-anxious-feelings-about-politics/</ref><ref>https://fortune.com/well/article/election-anxiety/</ref><ref>https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/us/politics/election-anxiety.html</ref> and the uncertainty of the results doesn't help.
+This comic is about the difficulty of dealing psychologically with 50/50 odds, and is likely inspired by the {{W|2024 United States presidential election}}, as this comic was released the day prior.  The odds of the election as reported by many media sources were close to 50/50, where the pre-election polls showed roughly a 50/50 chance of either {{w|Kamala Harris}} or {{w|Donald Trump}} being elected. It seems more and more people suffer from pre-election anxiety and the uncertainty of the results doesn't help.
 This 50/50 scenario is the third scenario shown in the comic.
@@ Line 51: / Line 51: @@
 * Randall had previously dealt with the possibility of a tied electoral count 12 years prior, in the ''[[what if? (blog)|what if?]]'' article ''{{what if|19|Tie Vote}}
 {{comic discussion}}

@@ Line 49: / Line 49: @@
 * This comic was posted a day before Election Day in the US, where the media has been reporting (based off of voter polls) that the 2 presidential candidates ([[Kamala Harris]] and [[Donald Trump]]) are closely contesting for the White House.  This may be a possible reason behind the creation of this comic.
-* Randall has dealt with the possibility of a tied electoral count 12 years before in ''what-if? [https://what-if.xkcd.com/19 #19]''
+* Randall had previously dealt with the possibility of a tied electoral count 12 years prior, in the ''[[what if? (blog)|what if?]]'' article ''{{what if|19|Tie Vote}}
 ==References==

@@ Line 32: / Line 32: @@
 ==Transcript==
-{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
 [A table titled "Coping With Probabilistic Uncertainty", with two columns labeled "Scenario" and "How to think about it in an emotionally healthy way". The boxes in the Scenario column contains text followed by a rectangle split into two parts; the left part is a smiley face, the right part is a frowny face with slanted, angry eyes.]
-Row 1, column 1: "Good outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 75% and is bigger than the frowny face.
+:[Row 1, column 1:] "Good outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 75% and is bigger than the frowny face.
-Row 1, column 2: "Recognize that the bad outcome is possible, but be reassured that the odds are in your favor".
+:[Row 1, column 2:] "Recognize that the bad outcome is possible, but be reassured that the odds are in your favor".
-Row 3, column 1: "Precisely 50/50". The rectangle is split in half and both faces are equal sizes.
+:[Row 3, column 1:] "Precisely 50/50". The rectangle is split in half and both faces are equal sizes.
-Row 3, column 2: "????? N/A ????"
+:[Row 3, column 2:] "????? N/A ????"
 ==Trivia==

@@ Line 28: / Line 28: @@
 | Precisely 50/50 || ????? N/A ???? || {{w|N/A}} stands for "not available", "no answer", "not applicable" or "not assessed". The actual worst case scenario, with no single obvious stance to take. (Thus also leaving ambiguous which fall-back position one should prepare to hold in reserve.)
 |}
 The title text is a joke making use of ambiguous wording: "researchers who are experts in emotional spirals" could either refer to researchers who study emotional spirals, or researchers who are undergoing emotional spirals themselves. Evidently, all the researchers "we" contacted were the latter, and thus unable to advise the comic.

@@ Line 57: / Line 57: @@
 [A table titled "Coping With Probabilistic Uncertainty", with two columns labeled "Scenario" and "How to think about it in an emotionally healthy way". The boxes in the Scenario column contains text followed by a rectangle split into two parts; the left part is a smiley face, the right part is a frowny face with slanted, angry eyes.]
-Row 1, column 1: "Good outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 75%.
+Row 1, column 1: "Good outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 75% and is bigger than the frowny face.
 Row 1, column 2: "Recognize that the bad outcome is possible, but be reassured that the odds are in your favor".
-Row 2, column 1: "Bad outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 25%.
+Row 2, column 1: "Bad outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 25% and is smaller than the frowny face.
 Row 2, column 2: "Prepare for the bad outcome while remembering that the future isn't certain and hope is justified".
-Row 3, column 1: "Precisely 50/50". The rectangle is split in half.
+Row 3, column 1: "Precisely 50/50". The rectangle is split in half and both faces are equal sizes.
 Row 3, column 2: "????? N/A ????"

← Older revision		Revision as of 02:25, 14 December 2024
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	[[Category:Psychology]] [[Category:Statistics]]		[[Category:Psychology]] [[Category:Statistics]]
		+	[[Category:Emoji]]