Talk:1827: Survivorship Bias - Revision history

Nitpicking: Pointless pedantry penta-years post

2022-03-30T12:45:48Z

Pointless pedantry penta-years post

172.69.68.200 at 21:51, 24 September 2021

2021-09-24T21:51:21Z

172.69.68.4 at 21:49, 24 September 2021

2021-09-24T21:49:02Z

162.158.63.4 at 05:31, 6 July 2018

2018-07-06T05:31:58Z

NiceGuy1 at 05:48, 13 June 2017

2017-06-13T05:48:51Z

141.101.107.18: don't believe the hype

2017-04-24T12:10:48Z

don't believe the hype

NotLock at 19:22, 23 April 2017

2017-04-23T19:22:24Z

NotLock at 19:21, 23 April 2017

2017-04-23T19:21:42Z

Hkmaly at 00:09, 23 April 2017

2017-04-23T00:09:05Z

172.68.182.136: i had to write it

2017-04-22T20:18:15Z

i had to write it

@@ Line 7: / Line 7: @@
 :::If itdoesn't get fixed, it might be some weird pun on "[survival of] the fittest". Wouldn't make a lot of sense in the context of the sentence though [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.233|162.158.91.233]] 09:12, 21 April 2017 (UTC)
 ::::sometimes Randall do not fix errors, so nothing can be concluded on that (would it be survivorship bias to do so? ;-) How should the word be spelled (I'm not native English speaking), and does the word even exist? The spelling should be mentioned when someone explains the title text. I'm not up for it. And then if it is corrected later, it should go into the trivia section as a corrected error. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 10:29, 21 April 2017 (UTC)
 Transcript's kind of done. [[User:Cardboardmech|Cardboardmech]] ([[User talk:Cardboardmech|talk]]) 05:17, 21 April 2017 (UTC)

@@ Line 3: / Line 3: @@
 :Definitely a typo. [[User:Cardboardmech|Cardboardmech]] ([[User talk:Cardboardmech|talk]]) 04:59, 21 April 2017 (UTC)
 ::At first I thought this was an unfamiliarity with the word, and was about to talk about how it's a real word and what it means, then I noticed the spelling, LOL! I KNOW I've seen such spelling errors several times before - often getting fixed in the next day or two - but I couldn't provide examples even if my life depended on it. And yeah, I'd say this is more "spelling error" than "typo", the I is nowhere near the E on any keyboard. :) - NiceGuy1 [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.88|108.162.219.88]] 05:58, 21 April 2017 (UTC) I finally signed up! This comment is mine. [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 05:48, 13 June 2017 (UTC)
-::Not on the QWERTY keyboard, but on the DVORAK keyboard, the E and I are very close. and we all know how nerdy Randall is.
+:::Not on the QWERTY keyboard, but on the DVORAK keyboard, the E and I are very close. and we all know how nerdy Randall is.
 :::If itdoesn't get fixed, it might be some weird pun on "[survival of] the fittest". Wouldn't make a lot of sense in the context of the sentence though [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.233|162.158.91.233]] 09:12, 21 April 2017 (UTC)
 ::::sometimes Randall do not fix errors, so nothing can be concluded on that (would it be survivorship bias to do so? ;-) How should the word be spelled (I'm not native English speaking), and does the word even exist? The spelling should be mentioned when someone explains the title text. I'm not up for it. And then if it is corrected later, it should go into the trivia section as a corrected error. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 10:29, 21 April 2017 (UTC)
 Transcript's kind of done. [[User:Cardboardmech|Cardboardmech]] ([[User talk:Cardboardmech|talk]]) 05:17, 21 April 2017 (UTC)

@@ Line 3: / Line 3: @@
 :Definitely a typo. [[User:Cardboardmech|Cardboardmech]] ([[User talk:Cardboardmech|talk]]) 04:59, 21 April 2017 (UTC)
 ::At first I thought this was an unfamiliarity with the word, and was about to talk about how it's a real word and what it means, then I noticed the spelling, LOL! I KNOW I've seen such spelling errors several times before - often getting fixed in the next day or two - but I couldn't provide examples even if my life depended on it. And yeah, I'd say this is more "spelling error" than "typo", the I is nowhere near the E on any keyboard. :) - NiceGuy1 [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.88|108.162.219.88]] 05:58, 21 April 2017 (UTC) I finally signed up! This comment is mine. [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 05:48, 13 June 2017 (UTC)
 :::If itdoesn't get fixed, it might be some weird pun on "[survival of] the fittest". Wouldn't make a lot of sense in the context of the sentence though [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.233|162.158.91.233]] 09:12, 21 April 2017 (UTC)
 ::::sometimes Randall do not fix errors, so nothing can be concluded on that (would it be survivorship bias to do so? ;-) How should the word be spelled (I'm not native English speaking), and does the word even exist? The spelling should be mentioned when someone explains the title text. I'm not up for it. And then if it is corrected later, it should go into the trivia section as a corrected error. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 10:29, 21 April 2017 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:31, 6 July 2018
Line 43:		Line 43:
	For example, although Donald Trump had '''many''' successful businesses, he also had '''some''' that went bankrupt.		For example, although Donald Trump had '''many''' successful businesses, he also had '''some''' that went bankrupt.
	this is back to front. you need to do more research. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.107.18\|141.101.107.18]] 12:10, 24 April 2017 (UTC)		this is back to front. you need to do more research. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.107.18\|141.101.107.18]] 12:10, 24 April 2017 (UTC)
		+
		+	People who died in a time of war never tell us what was the price for the victory; people who didn't risk their life usually write the history though.

@@ Line 2: / Line 2: @@
 Is "defeatest" a typo or a joke? I've never seen Randall make a typo before, but I also don't get the joke if there is one. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.2.184|162.158.2.184]] 04:28, 21 April 2017 (UTC)
 :Definitely a typo. [[User:Cardboardmech|Cardboardmech]] ([[User talk:Cardboardmech|talk]]) 04:59, 21 April 2017 (UTC)
-::At first I thought this was an unfamiliarity with the word, and was about to talk about how it's a real word and what it means, then I noticed the spelling, LOL! I KNOW I've seen such spelling errors several times before - often getting fixed in the next day or two - but I couldn't provide examples even if my life depended on it. And yeah, I'd say this is more "spelling error" than "typo", the I is nowhere near the E on any keyboard. :) - NiceGuy1 [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.88|108.162.219.88]] 05:58, 21 April 2017 (UTC)
+::At first I thought this was an unfamiliarity with the word, and was about to talk about how it's a real word and what it means, then I noticed the spelling, LOL! I KNOW I've seen such spelling errors several times before - often getting fixed in the next day or two - but I couldn't provide examples even if my life depended on it. And yeah, I'd say this is more "spelling error" than "typo", the I is nowhere near the E on any keyboard. :) - NiceGuy1 [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.88|108.162.219.88]] 05:58, 21 April 2017 (UTC) I finally signed up! This comment is mine. [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 05:48, 13 June 2017 (UTC)
 :::If itdoesn't get fixed, it might be some weird pun on "[survival of] the fittest". Wouldn't make a lot of sense in the context of the sentence though [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.233|162.158.91.233]] 09:12, 21 April 2017 (UTC)
 ::::sometimes Randall do not fix errors, so nothing can be concluded on that (would it be survivorship bias to do so? ;-) How should the word be spelled (I'm not native English speaking), and does the word even exist? The spelling should be mentioned when someone explains the title text. I'm not up for it. And then if it is corrected later, it should go into the trivia section as a corrected error. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 10:29, 21 April 2017 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:10, 24 April 2017
Line 40:		Line 40:

	This isn't quite relevant to the topic, but please let me vent out about a certain opinion that is going to appear in the explanation eventually: that lotteries are bad investment ''just'' because they lose you money on average. This is in fact bullshit, because so does insurance! If you really want to apply math to such things, you need to integrate welfare, not money profit, over the probabilities. Wherein welfare is some half-arbitrary function over money that denotes its actual impact on one's life and that ''usually'' grows slower than linearly on positive side (your life changes more after earning the first million dollars than after the second one), but sharply drops on the negative side (a bad debt is a life-ender). With such a welfare($) choice lottery is in fact bad while insurance is good. Note, hovewer, that in some situations, like when you already have a big debt and the mafia is killing you for it next week, lottery makes a surprisingly good, while still unlikely, investment! It's all a matter of the specific situation with welfare($). (Sorry for bad engrish, I never learned all those math terms.) [[Special:Contributions/172.68.182.136\|172.68.182.136]] 20:18, 22 April 2017 (UTC)		This isn't quite relevant to the topic, but please let me vent out about a certain opinion that is going to appear in the explanation eventually: that lotteries are bad investment ''just'' because they lose you money on average. This is in fact bullshit, because so does insurance! If you really want to apply math to such things, you need to integrate welfare, not money profit, over the probabilities. Wherein welfare is some half-arbitrary function over money that denotes its actual impact on one's life and that ''usually'' grows slower than linearly on positive side (your life changes more after earning the first million dollars than after the second one), but sharply drops on the negative side (a bad debt is a life-ender). With such a welfare($) choice lottery is in fact bad while insurance is good. Note, hovewer, that in some situations, like when you already have a big debt and the mafia is killing you for it next week, lottery makes a surprisingly good, while still unlikely, investment! It's all a matter of the specific situation with welfare($). (Sorry for bad engrish, I never learned all those math terms.) [[Special:Contributions/172.68.182.136\|172.68.182.136]] 20:18, 22 April 2017 (UTC)
		+
		+	For example, although Donald Trump had '''many''' successful businesses, he also had '''some''' that went bankrupt.
		+	this is back to front. you need to do more research. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.107.18\|141.101.107.18]] 12:10, 24 April 2017 (UTC)

@@ Line 34: / Line 34: @@
 This is an awfully long explanation, considering that it barely mentions Randall's assertion that *all* motivational speakers should include disclaimers (IE: "Results are not typical."). If compared by net-income versus cost-of-living, the vast majority of people end their lives with less wealth than their parents, in spite of any efforts to better their situation through education, savings, investment, et cetera. In other words, no matter how hard they try, most people lose. That's just a hard economic truth, & many people espousing hard work, dedication & especially sticking to your goals, tend to overlook the fact that financial success is actually quite rare, regardless of the lifelong effort put into it. As stated, nobody hires the failures to give talks; Maybe we should!
 :Less wealth than their parents? While it would be hard to compare, I would argue that they mostly end up better, as technological advances makes economy grow. Although it's true that depressions can reverse it. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 00:09, 23 April 2017 (UTC)
 This isn't quite relevant to the topic, but please let me vent out about a certain opinion that is going to appear in the explanation eventually: that lotteries are bad investment ''just'' because they lose you money on average.  This is in fact bullshit, because so does insurance!  If you really want to apply math to such things, you need to integrate welfare, not money profit, over the probabilities.  Wherein welfare is some half-arbitrary function over money that denotes its actual impact on one's life and that ''usually'' grows slower than linearly on positive side (your life changes more after earning the first million dollars than after the second one), but sharply drops on the negative side (a bad debt is a life-ender).  With such a welfare($) choice lottery is in fact bad while insurance is good.  Note, hovewer, that in some situations, like when you already have a big debt and the mafia is killing you for it next week, lottery makes a surprisingly good, while still unlikely, investment!  It's all a matter of the specific situation with welfare($).  (Sorry for bad engrish, I never learned all those math terms.)  [[Special:Contributions/172.68.182.136|172.68.182.136]] 20:18, 22 April 2017 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:09, 23 April 2017
Line 36:		Line 36:

	Also, speaking to graduating students is far from the most common activity of such professional speakers. The use of motivational speakers at conventions, paid seminars, & sales pitches is much more common & frequent than talks given to students. Since Randall doesn't mention students in any way, I think that specific phrase about students should be removed from the explanation. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.11\|141.101.99.11]] 17:46, 22 April 2017 (UTC)		Also, speaking to graduating students is far from the most common activity of such professional speakers. The use of motivational speakers at conventions, paid seminars, & sales pitches is much more common & frequent than talks given to students. Since Randall doesn't mention students in any way, I think that specific phrase about students should be removed from the explanation. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.11\|141.101.99.11]] 17:46, 22 April 2017 (UTC)
		+
		+	:Less wealth than their parents? While it would be hard to compare, I would argue that they mostly end up better, as technological advances makes economy grow. Although it's true that depressions can reverse it. -- [[User:Hkmaly\|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly\|talk]]) 00:09, 23 April 2017 (UTC)

	This isn't quite relevant to the topic, but please let me vent out about a certain opinion that is going to appear in the explanation eventually: that lotteries are bad investment ''just'' because they lose you money on average. This is in fact bullshit, because so does insurance! If you really want to apply math to such things, you need to integrate welfare, not money profit, over the probabilities. Wherein welfare is some half-arbitrary function over money that denotes its actual impact on one's life and that ''usually'' grows slower than linearly on positive side (your life changes more after earning the first million dollars than after the second one), but sharply drops on the negative side (a bad debt is a life-ender). With such a welfare($) choice lottery is in fact bad while insurance is good. Note, hovewer, that in some situations, like when you already have a big debt and the mafia is killing you for it next week, lottery makes a surprisingly good, while still unlikely, investment! It's all a matter of the specific situation with welfare($). (Sorry for bad engrish, I never learned all those math terms.) [[Special:Contributions/172.68.182.136\|172.68.182.136]] 20:18, 22 April 2017 (UTC)		This isn't quite relevant to the topic, but please let me vent out about a certain opinion that is going to appear in the explanation eventually: that lotteries are bad investment ''just'' because they lose you money on average. This is in fact bullshit, because so does insurance! If you really want to apply math to such things, you need to integrate welfare, not money profit, over the probabilities. Wherein welfare is some half-arbitrary function over money that denotes its actual impact on one's life and that ''usually'' grows slower than linearly on positive side (your life changes more after earning the first million dollars than after the second one), but sharply drops on the negative side (a bad debt is a life-ender). With such a welfare($) choice lottery is in fact bad while insurance is good. Note, hovewer, that in some situations, like when you already have a big debt and the mafia is killing you for it next week, lottery makes a surprisingly good, while still unlikely, investment! It's all a matter of the specific situation with welfare($). (Sorry for bad engrish, I never learned all those math terms.) [[Special:Contributions/172.68.182.136\|172.68.182.136]] 20:18, 22 April 2017 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:18, 22 April 2017
Line 36:		Line 36:

	Also, speaking to graduating students is far from the most common activity of such professional speakers. The use of motivational speakers at conventions, paid seminars, & sales pitches is much more common & frequent than talks given to students. Since Randall doesn't mention students in any way, I think that specific phrase about students should be removed from the explanation. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.11\|141.101.99.11]] 17:46, 22 April 2017 (UTC)		Also, speaking to graduating students is far from the most common activity of such professional speakers. The use of motivational speakers at conventions, paid seminars, & sales pitches is much more common & frequent than talks given to students. Since Randall doesn't mention students in any way, I think that specific phrase about students should be removed from the explanation. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.11\|141.101.99.11]] 17:46, 22 April 2017 (UTC)
		+
		+	This isn't quite relevant to the topic, but please let me vent out about a certain opinion that is going to appear in the explanation eventually: that lotteries are bad investment ''just'' because they lose you money on average. This is in fact bullshit, because so does insurance! If you really want to apply math to such things, you need to integrate welfare, not money profit, over the probabilities. Wherein welfare is some half-arbitrary function over money that denotes its actual impact on one's life and that ''usually'' grows slower than linearly on positive side (your life changes more after earning the first million dollars than after the second one), but sharply drops on the negative side (a bad debt is a life-ender). With such a welfare($) choice lottery is in fact bad while insurance is good. Note, hovewer, that in some situations, like when you already have a big debt and the mafia is killing you for it next week, lottery makes a surprisingly good, while still unlikely, investment! It's all a matter of the specific situation with welfare($). (Sorry for bad engrish, I never learned all those math terms.) [[Special:Contributions/172.68.182.136\|172.68.182.136]] 20:18, 22 April 2017 (UTC)