Talk:2059: Modified Bayes' Theorem - Revision history

Dgbrt at 20:19, 17 October 2018

2018-10-17T20:19:04Z

Dgbrt at 20:16, 17 October 2018

2018-10-17T20:16:30Z

IYN at 15:46, 17 October 2018

2018-10-17T15:46:45Z

IYN at 15:45, 17 October 2018

2018-10-17T15:45:46Z

141.101.76.82: Suggesting that examples should be given.

2018-10-17T09:42:54Z

Suggesting that examples should be given.

TobyBartels: Removed paragraph that makes no sense.

2018-10-16T13:03:58Z

Removed paragraph that makes no sense.

172.69.134.177 at 04:14, 16 October 2018

2018-10-16T04:14:50Z

162.158.167.42 at 04:14, 16 October 2018

2018-10-16T04:14:08Z

Dgbrt at 20:03, 15 October 2018

2018-10-15T20:03:45Z

DgbrtBOT: Created by dgbrtBOT

2018-10-15T16:05:36Z

Created by dgbrtBOT

New page

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 But there is more wrong right now. Look at a typical Wikipedia article, the Math-extension should be used for formulas but not in the floating text. --[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 20:03, 15 October 2018 (UTC)
 : Credit for a good explanation though. It made perfect sense to me, even though I didn't understand it. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.167.42|162.158.167.42]] 04:14, 16 October 2018 (UTC)
 I removed this, because it makes no sense:

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	Where is the next comic button for this page? [[User:IYN\|IYN]] ([[User talk:IYN\|talk]]) 15:46, 17 October 2018 (UTC)		Where is the next comic button for this page? [[User:IYN\|IYN]] ([[User talk:IYN\|talk]]) 15:46, 17 October 2018 (UTC)
		+	:Please be patient for that button, it always appears a little bit late since a few days ago when a new comic is out. Right now you always can click the ''Latest comic'' link at the menu. I'm aware of this minor issue. --[[User:Dgbrt\|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt\|talk]]) 20:16, 17 October 2018 (UTC)

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	What about examples of correct and incorrect use of Bayes' Theorem? I don't feel equal to executing that, but DNA evidence in a criminal case could be illuminating. As a sketch, it may show that of 7 billion people alive today, the blood at the scene came from any one of just 10,000 people of which the accused is one. Interesting, but not absolute. At least 9,999 of the 10,000 are innocent. Probability of mistake or malfeasance by the testing laboratory also needs to be considered. Then there's sports drug testing, disease screening with imperfect tests and rare true positives, etc. rja.carnegie@excite.com [[Special:Contributions/141.101.76.82\|141.101.76.82]] 09:42, 17 October 2018 (UTC)		What about examples of correct and incorrect use of Bayes' Theorem? I don't feel equal to executing that, but DNA evidence in a criminal case could be illuminating. As a sketch, it may show that of 7 billion people alive today, the blood at the scene came from any one of just 10,000 people of which the accused is one. Interesting, but not absolute. At least 9,999 of the 10,000 are innocent. Probability of mistake or malfeasance by the testing laboratory also needs to be considered. Then there's sports drug testing, disease screening with imperfect tests and rare true positives, etc. rja.carnegie@excite.com [[Special:Contributions/141.101.76.82\|141.101.76.82]] 09:42, 17 October 2018 (UTC)

−	Where is the next comic button for this page?	+	Where is the next comic button for this page? [[User:IYN\|IYN]] ([[User talk:IYN\|talk]]) 15:46, 17 October 2018 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:45, 17 October 2018
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	What about examples of correct and incorrect use of Bayes' Theorem? I don't feel equal to executing that, but DNA evidence in a criminal case could be illuminating. As a sketch, it may show that of 7 billion people alive today, the blood at the scene came from any one of just 10,000 people of which the accused is one. Interesting, but not absolute. At least 9,999 of the 10,000 are innocent. Probability of mistake or malfeasance by the testing laboratory also needs to be considered. Then there's sports drug testing, disease screening with imperfect tests and rare true positives, etc. rja.carnegie@excite.com [[Special:Contributions/141.101.76.82\|141.101.76.82]] 09:42, 17 October 2018 (UTC)		What about examples of correct and incorrect use of Bayes' Theorem? I don't feel equal to executing that, but DNA evidence in a criminal case could be illuminating. As a sketch, it may show that of 7 billion people alive today, the blood at the scene came from any one of just 10,000 people of which the accused is one. Interesting, but not absolute. At least 9,999 of the 10,000 are innocent. Probability of mistake or malfeasance by the testing laboratory also needs to be considered. Then there's sports drug testing, disease screening with imperfect tests and rare true positives, etc. rja.carnegie@excite.com [[Special:Contributions/141.101.76.82\|141.101.76.82]] 09:42, 17 October 2018 (UTC)
		+
		+	Where is the next comic button for this page?

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	—[[User:TobyBartels\|TobyBartels]] ([[User talk:TobyBartels\|talk]]) 13:03, 16 October 2018 (UTC)		—[[User:TobyBartels\|TobyBartels]] ([[User talk:TobyBartels\|talk]]) 13:03, 16 October 2018 (UTC)
		+
		+	What about examples of correct and incorrect use of Bayes' Theorem? I don't feel equal to executing that, but DNA evidence in a criminal case could be illuminating. As a sketch, it may show that of 7 billion people alive today, the blood at the scene came from any one of just 10,000 people of which the accused is one. Interesting, but not absolute. At least 9,999 of the 10,000 are innocent. Probability of mistake or malfeasance by the testing laboratory also needs to be considered. Then there's sports drug testing, disease screening with imperfect tests and rare true positives, etc. rja.carnegie@excite.com [[Special:Contributions/141.101.76.82\|141.101.76.82]] 09:42, 17 October 2018 (UTC)

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	But there is more wrong right now. Look at a typical Wikipedia article, the Math-extension should be used for formulas but not in the floating text. --[[User:Dgbrt\|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt\|talk]]) 20:03, 15 October 2018 (UTC)		But there is more wrong right now. Look at a typical Wikipedia article, the Math-extension should be used for formulas but not in the floating text. --[[User:Dgbrt\|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt\|talk]]) 20:03, 15 October 2018 (UTC)
	: Credit for a good explanation though. It made perfect sense to me, even though I didn't understand it. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.167.42\|162.158.167.42]] 04:14, 16 October 2018 (UTC)		: Credit for a good explanation though. It made perfect sense to me, even though I didn't understand it. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.167.42\|162.158.167.42]] 04:14, 16 October 2018 (UTC)
		+
		+	I removed this, because it makes no sense:
		+
		+	: As an equation, the rewritten form makes no sense. <math>P(H \mid X) = P(H)(1-P(C)) + P(H \mid X)P(C)</math> is strangely self-referential and reduces to the piecewise equation <math>\begin{cases}P(H \mid X) = P(H) & P(C) \neq 1 \\ 0 = 0 & P(C) = 1 \end{cases}</math>. However, the Modified Bayes Theorem includes an extra variable not listed in the conditioning, so a person with an AI background might understand that Randal was trying to write an expression for updating <math>P(H \mid X)</math> with knowledge of <math>C</math> i.e. <math>P(H \mid X,C)</math>, the belief in the hypothesis given the observation <math>X</math> and the confidence that you were applying Bayes' theorem correctly <math>C</math>, for which the expression <math>P(H \mid X,C) = P(H)(1-P(C)) + P(H \mid X)P(C)</math> makes some intuitive sense.
		+
		+	Between removing it and posting here, I think that I've figured out what it's saying. But it comes down to criticizing a mistake made in an earlier edit by the same editor, so I'll just fix that mistake instead.
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		+	—[[User:TobyBartels\|TobyBartels]] ([[User talk:TobyBartels\|talk]]) 13:03, 16 October 2018 (UTC)

@@ Line 5: / Line 5: @@
 :"If ''P(C)=1'' the..."
 But there is more wrong right now. Look at a typical Wikipedia article, the Math-extension should be used for formulas but not in the floating text. --[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 20:03, 15 October 2018 (UTC)
-: Credit for a good explanation though, it made perfect sense to me even though I didn't understand it. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.167.42|162.158.167.42]] 04:14, 16 October 2018 (UTC)
+: Credit for a good explanation though. It made perfect sense to me, even though I didn't understand it. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.167.42|162.158.167.42]] 04:14, 16 October 2018 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:14, 16 October 2018
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	:"If ''P(C)=1'' the..."		:"If ''P(C)=1'' the..."
	But there is more wrong right now. Look at a typical Wikipedia article, the Math-extension should be used for formulas but not in the floating text. --[[User:Dgbrt\|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt\|talk]]) 20:03, 15 October 2018 (UTC)		But there is more wrong right now. Look at a typical Wikipedia article, the Math-extension should be used for formulas but not in the floating text. --[[User:Dgbrt\|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt\|talk]]) 20:03, 15 October 2018 (UTC)
		+	: Credit for a good explanation though, it made perfect sense to me even though I didn't understand it. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.167.42\|162.158.167.42]] 04:14, 16 October 2018 (UTC)

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	<!--Please sign your posts with ~~~~ and don't delete this text. New comments should be added at the bottom.-->		<!--Please sign your posts with ~~~~ and don't delete this text. New comments should be added at the bottom.-->
		+	Right now the layout is awful:
		+	:"If <math>P(C)=1</math> the..."
		+	:should look like this:
		+	:"If ''P(C)=1'' the..."
		+	But there is more wrong right now. Look at a typical Wikipedia article, the Math-extension should be used for formulas but not in the floating text. --[[User:Dgbrt\|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt\|talk]]) 20:03, 15 October 2018 (UTC)