Talk:2311: Confidence Interval - Revision history

Divieira: Add comment on gray fill

2020-06-22T17:43:28Z

Add comment on gray fill

Seebert at 14:56, 27 May 2020

2020-05-27T14:56:35Z

172.68.141.76: /* Suggestions for improvement on the shape of the two confidence intervals */ sp.

2020-05-26T22:50:06Z

‎Suggestions for improvement on the shape of the two confidence intervals: sp.

172.68.142.47: /* Suggestions for improvement on the shape of the two confidence intervals */ explain

2020-05-26T18:01:41Z

‎Suggestions for improvement on the shape of the two confidence intervals: explain

172.68.142.47: /* Suggestions for improvement on the shape of the two confidence intervals */ new section

2020-05-26T17:57:52Z

‎Suggestions for improvement on the shape of the two confidence intervals: new section

Godzilla at 15:26, 26 May 2020

2020-05-26T15:26:52Z

Nutster: Error & Confidence.

2020-05-26T13:41:59Z

Error & Confidence.

Godzilla at 13:37, 26 May 2020

2020-05-26T13:37:36Z

Godzilla at 13:19, 26 May 2020

2020-05-26T13:19:44Z

141.101.99.65: "tip"

2020-05-26T11:35:34Z

"tip"

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:43, 22 June 2020
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	The smaller the error or uncertainty value, the larger the confidence number. A confidence value of less than 1 is usually considered unreliable, but may justify further experiments/observations. Confidence that is practically indistinguishable from 0 means the result is only marginally better than pure chance or a result showing no correlation. Said another way, you have no confidence in your observations. [[User:Nutster\|Nutster]] ([[User talk:Nutster\|talk]]) 13:41, 26 May 2020 (UTC)		The smaller the error or uncertainty value, the larger the confidence number. A confidence value of less than 1 is usually considered unreliable, but may justify further experiments/observations. Confidence that is practically indistinguishable from 0 means the result is only marginally better than pure chance or a result showing no correlation. Said another way, you have no confidence in your observations. [[User:Nutster\|Nutster]] ([[User talk:Nutster\|talk]]) 13:41, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
		+
		+	Doesn't it bother anybody else that the inside of the P, R and D characters are filled with gray in the comic? [[User:Divieira\|Divieira]] ([[User talk:Divieira\|talk]]) 17:43, 22 June 2020 (UTC)

	== Suggestions for improvement on the shape of the two confidence intervals ==		== Suggestions for improvement on the shape of the two confidence intervals ==

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 :Perhaps you heard about [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Sigma Six Sigma], a quality method used by General Electric (among others) to keep specifications and processes within tiny tolerances. The six sigmas mean that even absolute (so-called) outliers in your production are within the strict tolerances. With milli-sigmas it is extremely seldom to get an acceptable result at all. Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.234|108.162.229.234]] 10:53, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
 Can it be related to Covid19 pandemic and all those graphs that try to predict if it is in decline or not? [[User:Tkopec|Tkopec]] ([[User talk:Tkopec|talk]]) 08:27, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
 : No. But maybe it's related to the recent Mt. St. Helens comic... :p Seriously, not everything has to be related to the hot-button topic of the day.
 ::''Au contraire, mes amis'', it is obvious to me that [[1: Barrel - Part 1]] is about socially isolating away from the [[8: Red Spiders|virus]]. (Remember to sign?) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.237|162.158.158.237]] 10:56, 26 May 2020 (UTC)

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 == Suggestions for improvement on the shape of the two confidence intervals ==
-The confidence interval of interpolation (usually just the "confidence interval of prediction," not the confidence of the mean, but that's another story) should not be confused with the confidence interval of extrapolation, which should be called the "confidence interval of prediction" if the confidence interval of the curve fit weren't called that.
+The confidence interval of interpolation (usually just the "confidence interval of prediction," not the confidence of the mean, but that's another story) should not be confused with the confidence interval of extrapolation, which should be called the "confidence interval of prediction" if the confidence interval of the curve fit wasn't called that.
 https://imgur.com/gallery/dBvxzxF
 I think mathematicians and cartoonists need to team up to fix this. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.142.47|172.68.142.47]] 17:57, 26 May 2020 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:01, 26 May 2020
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	== Suggestions for improvement on the shape of the two confidence intervals ==		== Suggestions for improvement on the shape of the two confidence intervals ==

−	https://imgur.com/gallery/dBvxzxF [[Special:Contributions/172.68.142.47\|172.68.142.47]] 17:57, 26 May 2020 (UTC)	+	The confidence interval of interpolation (usually just the "confidence interval of prediction," not the confidence of the mean, but that's another story) should not be confused with the confidence interval of extrapolation, which should be called the "confidence interval of prediction" if the confidence interval of the curve fit weren't called that.
		+
		+	https://imgur.com/gallery/dBvxzxF
		+
		+	I think mathematicians and cartoonists need to team up to fix this. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.142.47\|172.68.142.47]] 17:57, 26 May 2020 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:57, 26 May 2020
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	The smaller the error or uncertainty value, the larger the confidence number. A confidence value of less than 1 is usually considered unreliable, but may justify further experiments/observations. Confidence that is practically indistinguishable from 0 means the result is only marginally better than pure chance or a result showing no correlation. Said another way, you have no confidence in your observations. [[User:Nutster\|Nutster]] ([[User talk:Nutster\|talk]]) 13:41, 26 May 2020 (UTC)		The smaller the error or uncertainty value, the larger the confidence number. A confidence value of less than 1 is usually considered unreliable, but may justify further experiments/observations. Confidence that is practically indistinguishable from 0 means the result is only marginally better than pure chance or a result showing no correlation. Said another way, you have no confidence in your observations. [[User:Nutster\|Nutster]] ([[User talk:Nutster\|talk]]) 13:41, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
		+
		+	== Suggestions for improvement on the shape of the two confidence intervals ==
		+
		+	https://imgur.com/gallery/dBvxzxF [[Special:Contributions/172.68.142.47\|172.68.142.47]] 17:57, 26 May 2020 (UTC)

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 Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science ''tip'' is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.65|141.101.99.65]] 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
-Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc):  https://rt.live/  ````
+Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc):  https://rt.live/
 The smaller the error or uncertainty value, the larger the confidence number.  A confidence value of less than 1 is usually considered unreliable, but may justify further experiments/observations.  Confidence that is practically indistinguishable from 0 means the result is only marginally better than pure chance or a result showing no correlation.  Said another way, you have no confidence in your observations. [[User:Nutster|Nutster]] ([[User talk:Nutster|talk]]) 13:41, 26 May 2020 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:37, 26 May 2020
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	Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science ''tip'' is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.65\|141.101.99.65]] 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC)		Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science ''tip'' is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.65\|141.101.99.65]] 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC)

−	Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc): https://rt.live/ ~~````~~	+	Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc): https://rt.live/
		+	[[User:Godzilla\|Godzilla]] ([[User talk:Godzilla\|talk]]) 13:37, 26 May 2020 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:19, 26 May 2020
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	::''Au contraire, mes amis'', it is obvious to me that [[1: Barrel - Part 1]] is about socially isolating away from the [[8: Red Spiders\|virus]]. (Remember to sign?) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.237\|162.158.158.237]] 10:56, 26 May 2020 (UTC)		::''Au contraire, mes amis'', it is obvious to me that [[1: Barrel - Part 1]] is about socially isolating away from the [[8: Red Spiders\|virus]]. (Remember to sign?) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.237\|162.158.158.237]] 10:56, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
	Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science ''tip'' is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.65\|141.101.99.65]] 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC)		Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science ''tip'' is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.65\|141.101.99.65]] 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
		+
		+	Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc): https://rt.live/ ````

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:35, 26 May 2020
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	: No. But maybe it's related to the recent Mt. St. Helens comic... :p Seriously, not everything has to be related to the hot-button topic of the day.		: No. But maybe it's related to the recent Mt. St. Helens comic... :p Seriously, not everything has to be related to the hot-button topic of the day.
	::''Au contraire, mes amis'', it is obvious to me that [[1: Barrel - Part 1]] is about socially isolating away from the [[8: Red Spiders\|virus]]. (Remember to sign?) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.237\|162.158.158.237]] 10:56, 26 May 2020 (UTC)		::''Au contraire, mes amis'', it is obvious to me that [[1: Barrel - Part 1]] is about socially isolating away from the [[8: Red Spiders\|virus]]. (Remember to sign?) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.237\|162.158.158.237]] 10:56, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
		+	Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science ''tip'' is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.65\|141.101.99.65]] 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC)