Talk:2323: Modeling Study - Revision history

172.69.35.185: Add comment

2020-12-24T00:03:07Z

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162.158.159.66 at 08:07, 25 August 2020

2020-08-25T08:07:41Z

Lupo at 10:32, 6 July 2020

2020-07-06T10:32:58Z

162.158.62.179 at 23:59, 25 June 2020

2020-06-25T23:59:16Z

162.158.62.179 at 23:49, 25 June 2020

2020-06-25T23:49:52Z

Lupo at 05:24, 25 June 2020

2020-06-25T05:24:46Z

162.158.78.92 at 16:06, 24 June 2020

2020-06-24T16:06:15Z

162.158.155.240 at 15:18, 24 June 2020

2020-06-24T15:18:11Z

Trlkly at 07:03, 24 June 2020

2020-06-24T07:03:32Z

141.101.98.130 at 23:44, 23 June 2020

2020-06-23T23:44:26Z

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 :::In A-level Chemistry between the filthy glassware, M/1000 silver nitrate and contaminated reagents you would always get brown gunge instead of a red precipitate.  But you quickly learned that you were supposed to falsify the data if you wanted a good mark.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.78.92|162.158.78.92]] 16:06, 24 June 2020 (UTC)
 ::::That's the point. If the teacher knows this (why wouldn't they?) and wants to honour scientistic behaviour which includes negative results and sometimes even reflecting on the unexpected outcomes of an experiment, they can set up an experiment that will always yield results, that appear wrong, to see who still reports the expected result. --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 05:24, 25 June 2020 (UTC)
 :I once proof read a master thesis, where an experimental setting to optimize a problem in certain network arrangements was set up (basically a laboratory with 15 desktop PCs, communicating with each other on a specific protocol, etc.). The guy who wrote it found out on the first afternoon after setting it up, that the professor who found and described the problem he was about to tackle made a mistake, and the problem didn't exist. By that time he had already - due to university standards - handed in the name of his thesis. While negative results in research are also good results, the problem is, that by the same standards of his university his master thesis had to be a certain size - if I remember correctly, at least 50 pages in small font, excluding data and images - he managed to stretch his afternoons work and some subsequential tests on it to the required number of pages though. I am sure there is a lesson to be learned here, but... I haven't figured it out yet. --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 05:37, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
 ::well, I gues the most important lesson would be "minimum length of text" is not a good requirement for any academic work. ;) [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 06:50, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

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 :Well, whoever makes statements like the one paraphrased above from the 2016 US election, or merely one like "there is a 75% chance of rain tomorrow", is a moronic pseudoscientist, and ought to be flogged, tarred, feathered, and sentenced to clean out public toilets 8h/d for two months, in that order. Such "measures" (of course they aren´t, they are merely a statement about how firmly one believes in his model extrapolating past measurement results into the future) have only one advantage for the "statistican" and newspapers, they can never be proved wrong. --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.92.44|162.158.92.44]] 20:38, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
 :Ummm. If you run a thousand related but variously hedging weather simulations and 750 of them suggest rain (for a given set of criteria - temporal, geographical and terminological limits), then there's 75% chance of rain. This doesn't mean it'll rain only 75% of the typical raincloud or be raining steady for just 45 minutes in any hour. And the same with polling. No, you ''can't'' prove it "wrong" (unless you said 0% or 100% chance and it did or did not happen; anyone who said such things would be taking their own risk), and that's the point. If the models suggest a majority of at least one vote (EC, ideally, but based on the balloting levels) for one party in 85% of circumstances, it is valid to suggest an 85% chance. However tightly packed the scatter is across all half-reasonable patterns. (Which can be enumerated, for those that understand the enumerations, but how many who don't understand the original figure would understand any additional ones?) So you can't prove it wrong, just an unfortunate 'miss' (like a bet that two dice won't come up snake-eyes; even more certain, but it still does fail to go the promised way), and yet some would say it invalidates all modelling. That they don't like the look of. They'll happily use spurious/selective models that seem to share their viewpoint. (As will many different people with many different viewpoints, of course. Hopefully enough people consider enough competent models to appreciate enough of the true uncertainty. But I'm not sure the models support the more optimistic levels of 'enough'.) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.130|141.101.98.130]] 23:44, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
 ::You'd judge a model by how well it predicts reality.  If there is rain 75% of the time the weatherman says there is a 75% chance of rain, then they are using a good model and are right.  You can write down their predictions and check this.  (you have to combine both approaches).  See comment by Seebert below.  [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.179|162.158.62.179]] 23:59, 25 June 2020 (UTC)
 [https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-06-23 Dilbert makes the same point the next morning in a slightly different way]--[[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 13:30, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

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 :::No. The most important lesson is "always name your thesis vaguely enough you can scale the content between 5% and 2000% or what you originally planned to do". -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 22:15, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
 :::: The lesson is that people are so used to blindly following rules, instead of considering whether the reasons of the rules are relevant and appropriate, that this community produced a thesis paper that met few of the reasons to write one. Usually you would quickly explain that you need to change the title of the paper and this would be accepted because it makes so much sense.  If it's not, there is some higher-up who would support you over anything that ensued. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.179|162.158.62.179]] 23:49, 25 June 2020 (UTC)
 Various "<Problem> Denier" groups, (Climate Change, Covid, other things not ''necessarily'' starting with "C") do tend to lose their shit over "models" that aren't right (whether 1% out or 50%, they'll take any 'error', or just the failure to model what happened later ''because'' the model was heeded and behaviours changed to avoid the outcome) ironically using their clutched-at-straws to model all ''future'' models as wrong/intentionally-misleading-for-nefarious-intent. They also misunderstand the models (witness them dragging out old "85% chance Hillary will win" predictions against the roughly(-and-slightly-more-than) 50% of the votes she got - a different measure and far from incompatible with the other), whether innocently or deliberately, to 'prove' their point. And that's just done by regular Joes/Josephines. I'm sure you can be far more competently incompetent in your modelling (i.e. sneak sneaky shit past more and more learned people) if you're an actual modeller yourself who feels the need to drive towards an end for which you then look for the means. (Or modes, or medians.) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.168|162.158.155.168]] 11:58, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

@@ Line 29: / Line 29: @@
 :Well, whoever makes statements like the one paraphrased above from the 2016 US election, or merely one like "there is a 75% chance of rain tomorrow", is a moronic pseudoscientist, and ought to be flogged, tarred, feathered, and sentenced to clean out public toilets 8h/d for two months, in that order. Such "measures" (of course they aren´t, they are merely a statement about how firmly one believes in his model extrapolating past measurement results into the future) have only one advantage for the "statistican" and newspapers, they can never be proved wrong. --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.92.44|162.158.92.44]] 20:38, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
 :Ummm. If you run a thousand related but variously hedging weather simulations and 750 of them suggest rain (for a given set of criteria - temporal, geographical and terminological limits), then there's 75% chance of rain. This doesn't mean it'll rain only 75% of the typical raincloud or be raining steady for just 45 minutes in any hour. And the same with polling. No, you ''can't'' prove it "wrong" (unless you said 0% or 100% chance and it did or did not happen; anyone who said such things would be taking their own risk), and that's the point. If the models suggest a majority of at least one vote (EC, ideally, but based on the balloting levels) for one party in 85% of circumstances, it is valid to suggest an 85% chance. However tightly packed the scatter is across all half-reasonable patterns. (Which can be enumerated, for those that understand the enumerations, but how many who don't understand the original figure would understand any additional ones?) So you can't prove it wrong, just an unfortunate 'miss' (like a bet that two dice won't come up snake-eyes; even more certain, but it still does fail to go the promised way), and yet some would say it invalidates all modelling. That they don't like the look of. They'll happily use spurious/selective models that seem to share their viewpoint. (As will many different people with many different viewpoints, of course. Hopefully enough people consider enough competent models to appreciate enough of the true uncertainty. But I'm not sure the models support the more optimistic levels of 'enough'.) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.130|141.101.98.130]] 23:44, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
 [https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-06-23 Dilbert makes the same point the next morning in a slightly different way]--[[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 13:30, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

@@ Line 16: / Line 16: @@
 ::well, I gues the most important lesson would be "minimum length of text" is not a good requirement for any academic work. ;) [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 06:50, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
 :::No. The most important lesson is "always name your thesis vaguely enough you can scale the content between 5% and 2000% or what you originally planned to do". -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 22:15, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
 Various "<Problem> Denier" groups, (Climate Change, Covid, other things not ''necessarily'' starting with "C") do tend to lose their shit over "models" that aren't right (whether 1% out or 50%, they'll take any 'error', or just the failure to model what happened later ''because'' the model was heeded and behaviours changed to avoid the outcome) ironically using their clutched-at-straws to model all ''future'' models as wrong/intentionally-misleading-for-nefarious-intent. They also misunderstand the models (witness them dragging out old "85% chance Hillary will win" predictions against the roughly(-and-slightly-more-than) 50% of the votes she got - a different measure and far from incompatible with the other), whether innocently or deliberately, to 'prove' their point. And that's just done by regular Joes/Josephines. I'm sure you can be far more competently incompetent in your modelling (i.e. sneak sneaky shit past more and more learned people) if you're an actual modeller yourself who feels the need to drive towards an end for which you then look for the means. (Or modes, or medians.) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.168|162.158.155.168]] 11:58, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

@@ Line 11: / Line 11: @@
 :::In our Physics A-Level (normal post-Secondary and pre-University stage, for non-UKians) class, the 'trick' played on us was a 'black box' of components that we had to record the resistance/impedence/whatever of when raising the voltage (can't recall if DC or AC) from zero up to a level and then back down again. One of a number of such tests, to be done by rotating around the lab, you'd be tempted to just run it up and record the down as mirror image, or fudgingly near. Except that there was some sort of latching trip, once a given voltage went through the box, that changed the circuit significantly on the return trip. Only the honest (and possibly honest enough to show the 'error' that crept in, when thinking they'd messed it up - and no time to rerun it from scratch!) gave in the two-slope graph or whatever was the record. Can't tell you whether I was a Goody-Two-Shoes or not, though I like to think I was (and would have known about zenor diodes and self-reinfor ing flip-flop circuits, which this may have crudely used). [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.130|141.101.98.130]] 23:44, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
 ::::Looks like your teacher was trying to illustrate the principle of {{w|Hysteresis#Electronic_circuits|hysteresis}}
 :I once proof read a master thesis, where an experimental setting to optimize a problem in certain network arrangements was set up (basically a laboratory with 15 desktop PCs, communicating with each other on a specific protocol, etc.). The guy who wrote it found out on the first afternoon after setting it up, that the professor who found and described the problem he was about to tackle made a mistake, and the problem didn't exist. By that time he had already - due to university standards - handed in the name of his thesis. While negative results in research are also good results, the problem is, that by the same standards of his university his master thesis had to be a certain size - if I remember correctly, at least 50 pages in small font, excluding data and images - he managed to stretch his afternoons work and some subsequential tests on it to the required number of pages though. I am sure there is a lesson to be learned here, but... I haven't figured it out yet. --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 05:37, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
 ::well, I gues the most important lesson would be "minimum length of text" is not a good requirement for any academic work. ;) [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 06:50, 23 June 2020 (UTC)