Talk:2370: Prediction - Revision history

172.71.98.144: 1-1/e

2024-03-17T16:28:24Z

1-1/e

141.101.98.52 at 11:15, 15 October 2020

2020-10-15T11:15:14Z

162.158.154.215 at 11:14, 15 October 2020

2020-10-15T11:14:12Z

162.158.74.245 at 11:10, 14 October 2020

2020-10-14T11:10:39Z

108.162.216.228 at 12:25, 12 October 2020

2020-10-12T12:25:08Z

141.101.105.244 at 11:22, 12 October 2020

2020-10-12T11:22:24Z

162.158.92.194: This comic is a bit disgusting.

2020-10-12T11:14:07Z

This comic is a bit disgusting.

162.158.166.167 at 09:23, 12 October 2020

2020-10-12T09:23:26Z

162.158.75.36 at 07:48, 12 October 2020

2020-10-12T07:48:22Z

172.68.189.161 at 19:32, 11 October 2020

2020-10-11T19:32:13Z

@@ Line 7: / Line 7: @@
 :::It may not be critical or may be obvious but in the comic, it seems to be understood that Event A or Event B may happen but not both, which "of course" affects how probability works.  The difference between flipping one coin or two coins.
 :::If it is about the election, then if most people decide early to vote or not, and for whom, then the election isn't really random.  However, the poll is random; they pick a few people out and ask their intention.  The picking is unreliable even in a large sample (another probability surprise) and so is whether the people picked answer truthfully about their voting intention.  Robert Carnegie rja.carnegie@gmail.com [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.155|141.101.98.155]] 11:42, 10 October 2020 (UTC)
 ::Yup, this is another politics comic. It's very similar to [[1131: Math]], and also reflects similar frustrations as the more recent [[2357]], although from a different angle (2357 was about lack of respect for polls, while this one's about poor grasp of odds and probability in the context of election models). [[User:Pelosujamo|Pelosujamo]] ([[User talk:Pelosujamo|talk]]) 04:09, 10 October 2020 (UTC)

@@ Line 23: / Line 23: @@
 For the first time since I've been reading this site, the explanation has left me more baffled than the comic.  Five hours previous to me making this comment, somebody edited the explanation to add a highly technical reference that I assume may be British English, because it sure ain't American.  What does "passing a flat check with a DC of" refer to?  What is the formula for a flat check?  And is it any different than what we in America would call a rubber check, and is passing one (essentially committing a form of counterfeiting) illegal where you are from?[[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 13:53, 11 October 2020 (UTC)
 :It's a role-playing or board game reference. I googled it, and found this: https://2e.aonprd.com/Rules.aspx?ID=333 [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 18:24, 11 October 2020 (UTC)
-:Also, in the UK, it’s “cheque” not “check”
+:Also, in the UK, it’s “cheque” not “check” [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.52|141.101.98.52]] 11:15, 15 October 2020 (UTC)
 Roll Charisma. DC 15.

@@ Line 23: / Line 23: @@
 For the first time since I've been reading this site, the explanation has left me more baffled than the comic.  Five hours previous to me making this comment, somebody edited the explanation to add a highly technical reference that I assume may be British English, because it sure ain't American.  What does "passing a flat check with a DC of" refer to?  What is the formula for a flat check?  And is it any different than what we in America would call a rubber check, and is passing one (essentially committing a form of counterfeiting) illegal where you are from?[[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 13:53, 11 October 2020 (UTC)
 :It's a role-playing or board game reference. I googled it, and found this: https://2e.aonprd.com/Rules.aspx?ID=333 [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 18:24, 11 October 2020 (UTC)
 Roll Charisma. DC 15.

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:10, 14 October 2020
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	The title text implies that you are discussing with a dishonest person ("you have to consider the probability of them paying up"). So I think this comic is about people who purposely distort facts and claim that the opponent are confused. A red herring. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.105.244\|141.101.105.244]] 11:22, 12 October 2020 (UTC)		The title text implies that you are discussing with a dishonest person ("you have to consider the probability of them paying up"). So I think this comic is about people who purposely distort facts and claim that the opponent are confused. A red herring. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.105.244\|141.101.105.244]] 11:22, 12 October 2020 (UTC)
		+
		+	:Rather, it's just saying again more about how you need to factor in probability into things correctly, and in general an idiot like this isn't trustworthy. It's not about them being dishonest about whether they are misunderstanding probability though. It does raise the question though about what the terms of the bet are so that it would be advantageous for you, and how to consider that they are basing their predictions of what will happen on a simplification and misunderstanding of predictions that you give them yourself, and they'd thus be reluctant to bet with you when they think you just said which way it is going to happen, and thus any such bet you make with them afterwards, they'd either think the way you want to bet is guaranteed for you to win, or it wouldn't make sense as you would be trying to bet the way you said wouldn't happen, which would likely make them think you are being dishonest somewhere, unless they are even more crazy and stupid than shown here. At best you would bet on something you convinced them is 50/50 with you taking the more likely side of the bet.--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.245\|162.158.74.245]] 11:10, 14 October 2020 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:25, 12 October 2020
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	Interesting. Here I was thinking this was related to Trumps assertion that he doesn't think Scientists have any idea what will happen with the global climate situation, but no one has made any reference to it at all so far. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.166.167\|162.158.166.167]] 09:23, 12 October 2020 (UTC)		Interesting. Here I was thinking this was related to Trumps assertion that he doesn't think Scientists have any idea what will happen with the global climate situation, but no one has made any reference to it at all so far. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.166.167\|162.158.166.167]] 09:23, 12 October 2020 (UTC)
		+
		+	:My immediate thought, as others have pointed out was that this was a commentary on the criticism of 538 (and other statistical models) after the 2016 election. For example, Donald Trump tweeted out a criticism of 538 yesterday talking about how wrong they were and Nate Silver responded. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315296563212832768 [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.228\|108.162.216.228]] 12:25, 12 October 2020 (UTC)

	People who have been declared stupid have no obligation to react sensibly.		People who have been declared stupid have no obligation to react sensibly.

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:22, 12 October 2020
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	But declaring oneself to be on the clever side feels so good.		But declaring oneself to be on the clever side feels so good.
	--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.92.194\|162.158.92.194]] 11:14, 12 October 2020 (UTC)		--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.92.194\|162.158.92.194]] 11:14, 12 October 2020 (UTC)
		+
		+	The title text implies that you are discussing with a dishonest person ("you have to consider the probability of them paying up"). So I think this comic is about people who purposely distort facts and claim that the opponent are confused. A red herring. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.105.244\|141.101.105.244]] 11:22, 12 October 2020 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:14, 12 October 2020
Line 34:		Line 34:

	Interesting. Here I was thinking this was related to Trumps assertion that he doesn't think Scientists have any idea what will happen with the global climate situation, but no one has made any reference to it at all so far. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.166.167\|162.158.166.167]] 09:23, 12 October 2020 (UTC)		Interesting. Here I was thinking this was related to Trumps assertion that he doesn't think Scientists have any idea what will happen with the global climate situation, but no one has made any reference to it at all so far. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.166.167\|162.158.166.167]] 09:23, 12 October 2020 (UTC)
		+
		+	People who have been declared stupid have no obligation to react sensibly.
		+	People feel no obligation to try to educate stupid people.
		+	But declaring oneself to be on the clever side feels so good.
		+	--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.92.194\|162.158.92.194]] 11:14, 12 October 2020 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:23, 12 October 2020
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	This reminds me of hearing about several years ago in Italy there were a bunch of little earthquakes, and they asked some scientists if that meant there were was a big earthquake coming, and they said probably not but they couldn't be certain, then a big earthquake happened and some people died, then they put the scientists on trial for manslaughter.--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.36\|162.158.75.36]] 07:48, 12 October 2020 (UTC)		This reminds me of hearing about several years ago in Italy there were a bunch of little earthquakes, and they asked some scientists if that meant there were was a big earthquake coming, and they said probably not but they couldn't be certain, then a big earthquake happened and some people died, then they put the scientists on trial for manslaughter.--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.36\|162.158.75.36]] 07:48, 12 October 2020 (UTC)
		+
		+	Interesting. Here I was thinking this was related to Trumps assertion that he doesn't think Scientists have any idea what will happen with the global climate situation, but no one has made any reference to it at all so far. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.166.167\|162.158.166.167]] 09:23, 12 October 2020 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 07:48, 12 October 2020
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	I feel compelled to point out that if the conversation had not gone as he ‘predicted’ he never would have mentioned his ‘prediction’ at all. Responses to this comment will be exactly what I predict, you’ll see when I tell you what I predicted. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.189.161\|172.68.189.161]] 19:32, 11 October 2020 (UTC)		I feel compelled to point out that if the conversation had not gone as he ‘predicted’ he never would have mentioned his ‘prediction’ at all. Responses to this comment will be exactly what I predict, you’ll see when I tell you what I predicted. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.189.161\|172.68.189.161]] 19:32, 11 October 2020 (UTC)
		+
		+	This reminds me of hearing about several years ago in Italy there were a bunch of little earthquakes, and they asked some scientists if that meant there were was a big earthquake coming, and they said probably not but they couldn't be certain, then a big earthquake happened and some people died, then they put the scientists on trial for manslaughter.--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.36\|162.158.75.36]] 07:48, 12 October 2020 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:32, 11 October 2020
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	The first sentence of the last paragraph is in the past tense, and will be correct when the U.S. elections are over. The next sentence is in the present tense. I'm not sure which is better, but we should be consistent. [[User:BunsenH\|BunsenH]] ([[User talk:BunsenH\|talk]]) 18:31, 11 October 2020 (UTC)		The first sentence of the last paragraph is in the past tense, and will be correct when the U.S. elections are over. The next sentence is in the present tense. I'm not sure which is better, but we should be consistent. [[User:BunsenH\|BunsenH]] ([[User talk:BunsenH\|talk]]) 18:31, 11 October 2020 (UTC)
		+
		+	I feel compelled to point out that if the conversation had not gone as he ‘predicted’ he never would have mentioned his ‘prediction’ at all. Responses to this comment will be exactly what I predict, you’ll see when I tell you what I predicted. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.189.161\|172.68.189.161]] 19:32, 11 October 2020 (UTC)