Talk:2379: Probability Comparisons - Revision history

172.70.126.69 at 23:53, 27 July 2021

2021-07-27T23:53:27Z

162.158.159.46: /* Free Throw meaning */ Thanks, but the explanation would be better placed in the main text

2020-11-09T12:36:33Z

‎Free Throw meaning: Thanks, but the explanation would be better placed in the main text

BlackHat at 19:16, 7 November 2020

2020-11-07T19:16:45Z

162.158.79.87: /* Share a birthday with two US Senators */

2020-11-04T05:15:55Z

‎Share a birthday with two US Senators

162.158.79.91: /* Free Throw meaning */

2020-11-03T05:24:30Z

‎Free Throw meaning

162.158.134.84 at 20:59, 2 November 2020

2020-11-02T20:59:09Z

141.101.98.52: /* Hemispheres and Seasons */

2020-11-02T15:42:35Z

‎Hemispheres and Seasons

Cellocgw: /* Free Throw meaning */

2020-11-02T14:08:54Z

‎Free Throw meaning

141.101.68.12: /* Let's talk M&Ms */

2020-11-02T14:00:34Z

‎Let's talk M&Ms

108.162.229.54: /* Let's talk M&Ms */

2020-11-02T13:55:28Z

‎Let's talk M&Ms

← Older revision		Revision as of 23:53, 27 July 2021
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	XKCD comics are getting later and later in the (American) day. This one was posted Sunday the 1st, from the point of view of us Aussies. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.119.159\|162.158.119.159]] 01:40, 1 November 2020 (UTC)		XKCD comics are getting later and later in the (American) day. This one was posted Sunday the 1st, from the point of view of us Aussies. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.119.159\|162.158.119.159]] 01:40, 1 November 2020 (UTC)
		+
		+	This comic is how I found out I share a birthday with one of the Backstreet Boys (Nick Carter). Thanks, Randall. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.126.69\|172.70.126.69]] 23:53, 27 July 2021 (UTC)

	== 2/3 = both 66% and 67%? ==		== 2/3 = both 66% and 67%? ==

@@ Line 115: / Line 115: @@
 Hi! Would it be possible to add an explanation as to what a free throw is, for the benefit of those of us who know nothing about basketball? Thanks! [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.183|162.158.158.183]] 13:03, 2 November 2020 (UTC)
 Sure: when one of a number of transgressions of the rules occurs (a "foul"), depending on about 17 other variables, the player who was fouled is allowed to stand at a special line called the "Free-throw line" and take either one, two or three shots at the basket without anyone guarding him.  Free throws only count one point, as opposed to baskets made during play which are 2 points (or 3 points outside yet another circular arc some distance from the goal).
 == Share a birthday with two US Senators ==
 Fairly certain this calculation is wrong.  It assumes that births are divided evenly across the dates of the year, but some birth dates are more common than others. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.134.84|162.158.134.84]] 20:59, 2 November 2020 (UTC)
 :Are you referring to the fact that Feb 29 is far less common than other birthdays? Or the fact that December 25th is noticeably less common (with a similar albeit smaller uptick on Dec. 26) https://www.panix.com/~murphy/bday.html (a study of ~400,000 birth dates) and my own personal investigation using a dataset of a half million college applicants show that the distribution of birthdates is very close to the expected value that statistics would predict, with the glaring exception of Dec. 25 and 26.  For the single-digit accuracy that Randal is using (rounding 2/3 to be 67% for example) the distribution of birthdays is close enough to flat for the computed value to be valid.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.79.87|162.158.79.87]] 05:15, 4 November 2020 (UTC)

@@ Line 64: / Line 64: @@
 == Let's talk M&Ms ==
-I'm beginning to think Randall is nerd-sniping us, because none of the values for M&M colours seem to line up with his source. The easiest example to demonstrate is '77% : An M&M is not blue'. '''Nowhere in the article is there a value which rounds to 23% for blue M&Ms.''' Most of the other calculations also seem to have small-scale differences, and a few have differences so big only using the 95% confidence interval values help. Can anybody figure out his line of reasoning with this? [[User:BlackHat|BlackHat]] ([[User talk:BlackHat|talk]]) 19:12, 1 November 2020 (UTC)
+I'm beginning to think Randall is nerd-sniping us, because none of the values for M&M colours seem to line up with his source. The easiest example to demonstrate is '77% : An M&M is not blue'. ''Nowhere in the article is there a value which rounds to 23% for blue M&Ms.'' Most of the other calculations also seem to have small-scale differences, and a few have differences so big only using the 95% confidence interval values help. Can anybody figure out his line of reasoning with this? [[User:BlackHat|BlackHat]] ([[User talk:BlackHat|talk]]) 19:12, 1 November 2020 (UTC)
 :You have to remember that 87% of all stats are made up. [[User:SDSpivey|SDSpivey]] ([[User talk:SDSpivey|talk]]) 21:24, 1 November 2020 (UTC)
 :The source in question does show about 23% for blue M&Ms. In 2008: 24%. In 2017, Cleveland plant: 20.7%, Hackettstown plant: 25% (average 22.85%, assuming both factories produce the same volume).[[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.54|108.162.229.54]] 13:55, 2 November 2020 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:15, 4 November 2020
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	== Share a birthday with two US Senators ==		== Share a birthday with two US Senators ==
	Fairly certain this calculation is wrong. It assumes that births are divided evenly across the dates of the year, but some birth dates are more common than others. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.134.84\|162.158.134.84]] 20:59, 2 November 2020 (UTC)		Fairly certain this calculation is wrong. It assumes that births are divided evenly across the dates of the year, but some birth dates are more common than others. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.134.84\|162.158.134.84]] 20:59, 2 November 2020 (UTC)
		+	:Are you referring to the fact that Feb 29 is far less common than other birthdays? Or the fact that December 25th is noticeably less common (with a similar albeit smaller uptick on Dec. 26) https://www.panix.com/~murphy/bday.html (a study of ~400,000 birth dates) and my own personal investigation using a dataset of a half million college applicants show that the distribution of birthdates is very close to the expected value that statistics would predict, with the glaring exception of Dec. 25 and 26. For the single-digit accuracy that Randal is using (rounding 2/3 to be 67% for example) the distribution of birthdays is close enough to flat for the computed value to be valid.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.79.87\|162.158.79.87]] 05:15, 4 November 2020 (UTC)

@@ Line 114: / Line 114: @@
 Hi! Would it be possible to add an explanation as to what a free throw is, for the benefit of those of us who know nothing about basketball? Thanks! [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.183|162.158.158.183]] 13:03, 2 November 2020 (UTC)
-Sure: when one of a number of transgressions of the rules occurs (a "foul"), depending on about 17 other variables, the player who was fouled is allowed to stand at a special line called the "Free-throw line" and take either one or two shots at the basket without anyone guarding him.  Free throws only count one point, as opposed to baskets made during play which are 2 points (or 3 points outside yet another circular arc some distance from the goal).
+Sure: when one of a number of transgressions of the rules occurs (a "foul"), depending on about 17 other variables, the player who was fouled is allowed to stand at a special line called the "Free-throw line" and take either one, two or three shots at the basket without anyone guarding him.  Free throws only count one point, as opposed to baskets made during play which are 2 points (or 3 points outside yet another circular arc some distance from the goal).
 == Share a birthday with two US Senators ==
 Fairly certain this calculation is wrong.  It assumes that births are divided evenly across the dates of the year, but some birth dates are more common than others. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.134.84|162.158.134.84]] 20:59, 2 November 2020 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:59, 2 November 2020
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	Hi! Would it be possible to add an explanation as to what a free throw is, for the benefit of those of us who know nothing about basketball? Thanks! [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.183\|162.158.158.183]] 13:03, 2 November 2020 (UTC)		Hi! Would it be possible to add an explanation as to what a free throw is, for the benefit of those of us who know nothing about basketball? Thanks! [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.183\|162.158.158.183]] 13:03, 2 November 2020 (UTC)
	Sure: when one of a number of transgressions of the rules occurs (a "foul"), depending on about 17 other variables, the player who was fouled is allowed to stand at a special line called the "Free-throw line" and take either one or two shots at the basket without anyone guarding him. Free throws only count one point, as opposed to baskets made during play which are 2 points (or 3 points outside yet another circular arc some distance from the goal).		Sure: when one of a number of transgressions of the rules occurs (a "foul"), depending on about 17 other variables, the player who was fouled is allowed to stand at a special line called the "Free-throw line" and take either one or two shots at the basket without anyone guarding him. Free throws only count one point, as opposed to baskets made during play which are 2 points (or 3 points outside yet another circular arc some distance from the goal).
		+
		+	== Share a birthday with two US Senators ==
		+	Fairly certain this calculation is wrong. It assumes that births are divided evenly across the dates of the year, but some birth dates are more common than others. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.134.84\|162.158.134.84]] 20:59, 2 November 2020 (UTC)

@@ Line 72: / Line 72: @@
 Should there be a note of the fact that the summer/winter percentages are only true in the northern hemisphere? In the southern hemisphere, where summer is December-February and winter is June-August, the figures should be reversed (and at the equator, summer and winter don't really exist). [[Special:Contributions/172.68.86.114|172.68.86.114]] 21:49, 1 November 2020 (UTC)
 :I'm not entirely sure ''which'' season boundaries are being espoused.  Equinox/Solstice ones (summer starts on "mid-summer's day", ''sic''), mid-way between adjacent equinoces/solstices (mid-summer's day ''is'' exactly half way through summer), meteorlogical (groupings of three calendar months)..? I suspect the latter, to provide the off-quarter values from almost continually variable month-lengths, but the other two (in conjunction with the elliptical orbit of the Earth changing the rate each phase of oscillation made by the ecliptic) would be a far more scientific reason worthy of Randall. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.102|162.158.155.102]] 02:47, 2 November 2020 (UTC)
 == Obama earthquake probability ==

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:08, 2 November 2020
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	Hi! Would it be possible to add an explanation as to what a free throw is, for the benefit of those of us who know nothing about basketball? Thanks! [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.183\|162.158.158.183]] 13:03, 2 November 2020 (UTC)		Hi! Would it be possible to add an explanation as to what a free throw is, for the benefit of those of us who know nothing about basketball? Thanks! [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.183\|162.158.158.183]] 13:03, 2 November 2020 (UTC)
		+	Sure: when one of a number of transgressions of the rules occurs (a "foul"), depending on about 17 other variables, the player who was fouled is allowed to stand at a special line called the "Free-throw line" and take either one or two shots at the basket without anyone guarding him. Free throws only count one point, as opposed to baskets made during play which are 2 points (or 3 points outside yet another circular arc some distance from the goal).