Editing 1252: Increased Risk
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This is a common misunderstanding of statistics. While the overall probability of an attack in three trips would be higher than in a single trip, it doesn't change the fact that in each individual trip, the probability is still the same; whether or not they managed to avoid being attacked in their first two trips, the results of these trips do not factor into the probability equation of the third trip. | This is a common misunderstanding of statistics. While the overall probability of an attack in three trips would be higher than in a single trip, it doesn't change the fact that in each individual trip, the probability is still the same; whether or not they managed to avoid being attacked in their first two trips, the results of these trips do not factor into the probability equation of the third trip. | ||
β | This also can be illustrated by coin flips: if one flips a | + | This also can be illustrated by coin flips: if one flips a coin ten times in a row, no matter what the result of each previous flip is (even if it were nine heads in a row), the odds of getting heads on the tenth coin flip remains 50%. In other words, past experience does not impact subsequent flips. |
The caption clarifies Cueball's point, but without sarcasm. | The caption clarifies Cueball's point, but without sarcasm. |