1512: Horoscopes

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Horoscopes
If you live in the Northern hemisphere, anyway. In the southern hemisphere, due to the coriolis effect, babies are born nine months BEFORE they're conceived.
Title text: If you live in the Northern hemisphere, anyway. In the southern hemisphere, due to the coriolis effect, babies are born nine months BEFORE they're conceived.

Explanation

Horoscopes are supposed to predict someones personality, or future, depending on the position of planets and stars at the time of their birth and now, especially based on their (zodiac signs). Today, horoscopes are admitted to be pseudoscience which is why the comic jokes about the fact that it's horoscopes at least may be true (at least for someone born in The United States). "Real" horoscopes are typically so vague that they could be true for anyone regardless of their sign.

Since the 12 category zodiac signs in horoscopes are based on birthday dates, Randall can do some informed guess about the context of someone's conception (i.e., what was happening nine months before they were born), depending on the sign. For example, Virgo are born mostly in September, so they were conceived shortly after Christmas, leading to the guess "You may have been conceived while a Christmas song played". So Randall's "predictions" are possible, if not useful. Contrary to popular horoscopes, here there is an actual reason why for instance the horoscope for Virgo is true only for Virgo and so on. See detailed description in the table below.

The title text refers to the Coriolis effect which occurs to a body that is moving on an object that is spinning. Since the Earth is rotating this leads to the fact that something that is moving on Earth feels a force (the Coriolis force) which causes the moving object to be deflected to the right in the northern hemisphere and to the left in the southern hemisphere. This effect is the reason that weather systems (most clearly seen for hurricanes) rotates in one direction in the northern hemisphere and in the opposite direction in the southern hemisphere. There is also a common misconception that water will spin down a plug hole in a different direction in the two hemispheres (see also 843: Misconceptions). The Coriolis force can also be experienced on a much smaller scale, for instance if you try to walk on a spinning carousel.

Randall plays on misconceptions regarding this fictitious force to make a joke involving reversing the flow of time. So whereas babies are born nine months after conception in the northern hemisphere (clockwise) the Coriolis effect is the reason why babies are being born nine months before in the southern hemisphere (counterclockwise).

In reality, the relevant difference between the northern and southern hemispheres is that the meteorological seasons are a half-year out of phase between the two. This renders some of the "predictions" (such as a hot day in August or people trapped by snow in January-February) invalid for the southern hemisphere.

Table of Astrological signs

Here below is a table with data and explanation of the individual horoscopes:

Astrological sign English name Date range 9 months before Horoscope prediction Explanation
Aries The Ram March 21 - April 21 June 21 - July 21 You may have been conceived after a 4th of July fireworks show In the US the Independence Day is celebrated on the 4th of July, and this is customarily celebrated with huge fireworks.
Taurus The Bull April 20 - May 20 July 20 - August 20 You may have been conceived on a hot August day In most of the northern hemisphere there are many hot days in August.
Gemini The Twins May 21 - June 21 August 21 - September 21 You may have been conceived as the leaves began to change In the northern part of the northern hemisphere the autumn starts at the end of this time period, so the leaves will begin to change color.
Cancer The Crab June 21 - July 21 September 21 - October 21 You may have been conceived by people trying on costumes This period ends 10 days before Halloween, so it is not unlikely that the people who conceived you (mom and dad) tried on their new costumes when they made you.
Leo The Lion July 22 - August 23 October 22 and November 23 You may have been conceived during thanksgiving Thanksgiving is celebrated in the US on fourth Thursday of November, which for only two out of seven years will lie before the 23rd of November. However many people are born before 9 months so it is not unlikely for someone born as a Leo to be conceived on this day.
Virgo The Maiden August 23 - September 22 November 23 - December 22 You may have been conceived while a Christmas song played It is very common for Christmas songs to be played in the month before Christmas
Libra The Scales September 22 - October 23 December 22 - January 23 You may have been conceived after a new year's eve party Since New Year's Eve always falls on December 31, and since the party goes on into the new year this fits with Libra. As it is very likely that people are together in a way that may lead to conception at this type of parties, there may even be rather more than a 30th part of the people that are Libra that are conceived at such a party.
Scorpio The Scorpion October 23 and November 22 January 23 - February 22 You may have been conceived by people stuck inside after a long winter This period is during the coolest part and towards the end of the winter. People may even be forced to stay at home due to snow. When people have nothing else to do many babies are born 9 months later.
Sagittarius The Archer November 22 - December 21 February 22 - March 21 You may have been conceived during March madness Although originally the early part of the mating season for the European Hare, in which females fight off male suitors, in a US context this is an American college Basketball tournament [1].
Capricorn The Goat December 22 - January 19 March 22 - April 19 You may have been conceived during a sexy Easter Egg hunt Easter falls between March 22 and April 25 so most Easter Egg hunt, sexy or nor, will fall in the relevant period to conceive Capricorn children. The goal of an Easter egg hunt can be to find as many eggs in a given time, or find a sequence of eggs, each containing a clue to the next. It is not difficult to think of adult variations on these themes. Most Egg hunts do not involve people who should make them sexy!
Aquarius The Water Carrier January 20 - February 18 April 20 - May 18 You may have been conceived on Mother's day Mother's Day in the USA,and some other countries, is on the second Sunday in May, between the 8th and 14th of May.
Pisces The Fishes February 19 - March 20 May 21 - June 21 You may have been conceived at someone's wedding It is not uncommon that people meet and even go so far as to risk conceiving a child at someones wedding. The tradition of a June Bride may be an old one and hence explains the reference for Pisces which lies mainly in June. ABC claim that in the 15th and 16th century, May would have been the month for an "annual bath", and moreover June is named for Juno, goddess of the home and hearth.

Transcript

[Above the frame:]
Horoscopes
With an actual basis in fact
[A table with the name of each astrological sign in the first column and a horoscope for each sign in the second column.]
Aries You may have been conceived after a 4th of July fireworks show
Taurus You may have been conceived on a hot August day
Gemini You may have been conceived as the leaves began to change
Cancer You may have been conceived by people trying on costumes
Leo You may have been conceived during thanksgiving
Virgo You may have been conceived while a Christmas song played
Libra You may have been conceived after a new year's eve party
Scorpio You may have been conceived by people stuck inside after a long winter
Sagittarius You may have been conceived during March madness
Capricorn You may have been conceived during a sexy Easter Egg hunt
Aquarius You may have been conceived on Mother's day
Pisces You may have been conceived at someone's wedding


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Discussion

So funny - especially the title text made me laugh :-) --Kynde (talk) 07:05, 15 April 2015 (UTC)

Nine months later, it would certainly eliminate the stress of wondering if you were gonna "get lucky" that night. - Equinox 199.27.128.120 16:13, 15 April 2015 (UTC)

The "coriolis effect" in the title text refers to the spin direction of vortices (rotating currents such as cyclones, whirlpools, and water draining from a basin), which is counter-clockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. The title text is a joke extending the reversal to the flow of time.

The spin direction of whirlpools and basins is 'not' determined by the coriolis effect, on this scale its impact is way too small to make a difference. The title text refers to how the coriolis effect is often used to explain phenomena (especially with relation to the hemispheres), even when its wrong. --198.41.242.5 08:23, 15 April 2015 (UTC)

If the baby is born 9 months BEFORE they're conceived, would that account for the shift in seasons for the southern hemisphere? Born in March: Northern hemisphere -> conceived in June; Southern hemisphere -> conceived in December. June and December being summer respectively. If that's right, could someone add that to the wiki? User:none

The events described during which the conception of a person with a given birth month occurred assumes that the parents were in the United States at that time. The seasons would be shifted by six months in the southern hemisphere, and the holidays of the 4th of July (Independence Day -- Aries), Halloween (Cancer, conception in October), Thanksgiving (Leo, conception in November), Mother's Day (Aquarius, conception in May), and the NCAA (college) basketball playoffs ("March Madness" -- Sagittarius) , might either not be celebrated or celebrated on a different day. The Dining Logician (talk) 08:11, 15 April 2015 (UTC)

Halloween is starting to become common in Brazil, including the "Trick or Treat" stuff. Mother's Day is also celebrated at the same date. And I wouldn't be surprised if Thanksgiving became common here too, if not only for the sales... 188.114.97.151 19:47, 17 December 2015 (UTC)

"Today, horoscopes are admitted to be pseudoscience." Citation needed. But what rubbish. Horoscopes are not even pseudoscience, so who is it "admitting" they are? 108.162.250.187 08:36, 15 April 2015 (UTC)

Agree, I would like the citation for "today", as there were experiments disproving horoscopes in ancient Rome already (involving two babies born in same time, one rich, one slave). -- Hkmaly (talk) 12:48, 15 April 2015 (UTC)

The general trick to horoscopes is make them vague enough that anyone can think they're true, regardless of their sign. --PsyMar (talk) 10:34, 15 April 2015 (UTC)

"You will have an opportunity today, meet someone new and should take care of your finances. Family matters will continue as per the last few days." 141.101.98.192 13:41, 15 April 2015 (UTC)
It's the Forer effect. 108.162.249.134 21:55, 16 April 2015 (UTC)

I propose an addition to the "conceived during someone's wedding" -- it's more common that the conception is actually after the wedding, during the (somewhat expected) consummation by the actual married couple. Thus, "honeymoon babies"! --BigMal // 108.162.221.181 12:53, 15 April 2015 (UTC)

I read this as being conceived at someone else's wedding - attending weddings often being a trigger for romantic thoughts. 108.162.249.162 03:25, 17 April 2015 (UTC)

Wait, I though Superman goes back in time not by "going against earths rotation, but simply by going faster than light?141.101.88.209 19:53, 15 April 2015 (UTC)

The expected conception column is off, therefore the explanations may be off. Length of a human pregnancy is 38 weeks after conception, or 9 1/2 months, not the 9 months that is commonly portrayed. I'm not sure if Randall took this into account or not. 199.27.133.121 20:40, 15 April 2015 (UTC)

This is true, except you must have meant 8½ month not 9½ since 38 weeks is less than 9 month. Actually it is very close to 8,75 month. But anyway you are correct, that all the dates should be fixed to go 38 weeks back, not 9 months!--Kynde (talk) 20:54, 15 April 2015 (UTC)
Yep, that is what I meant, sorry 199.27.133.121 05:26, 16 April 2015 (UTC)
Updated with the correct dates, but the explanations haven't been proofread to conform with the dates 199.27.133.121 05:34, 16 April 2015 (UTC)
Fixed explanations, then realized you went for 40 weeks, not 38, so changed them to 38 weeks and fixed explanations again ;) Nealmcb (talk) 17:58, 16 April 2015 (UTC)
Even 38 weeks is idealised - I have a niece and nephew who were born 22 weeks after conception (4 years old now and doing well!) And term isn't until 41 weeks (from last menstruation) in France. 38 weeks happens to be a useful average in many parts of the world, but even healthy term pregnancies in USA/UK/Australia(/others?) covers the range of 35-40 weeks from conception. Also, with the rise of babies conceived by IVF, it's no longer quite so obvious what was happening 38-ish weeks before birth! 108.162.249.162 03:30, 17 April 2015 (UTC)
I've added to this conversation, but I put my addition below since it's so long after the fact. EebstertheGreat (talk) 23:08, 12 October 2022 (UTC)

No reference to the fact that November babies might be conceived on V day? Vkapadia (talk) 21:10, 15 April 2015 (UTC)

V-E day is not celebrated in the U.S. It has far less historical significance to us, since to us it was just an important date in the middle of a war. So the holidays that were included (like July 4 and October 31) make more sense in the U.S. for conception dates, even if they mean nothing internationally. EebstertheGreat (talk) 23:08, 12 October 2022 (UTC)

The real secret behind horoscopes and Nostradamus, is "vague shift"The Goyim speaks (talk) 01:36, 17 April 2015 (UTC)

In the second paragraph of the explanation, can we use either "i.e." or "for example," but not both? I don't have a particular preference for one or another; anyone who does is encouraged to make the correction. 173.245.50.125 06:32, 17 April 2015 (UTC)

I feel like there was a missed opportunity for Scorpio. Could have mentioned Valentines Day. 108.162.219.102 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

Aquarius could also, perhaps sadly/strangely, be prom babies. 108.162.215.7 22:29, 22 May 2016 (UTC)

Regarding about Gemini, which coincidentally I am one, doesn't apply to South-East Asian countries like Singapore(where I am born in), where the leaves doesn't change colors the whole year round. Same goes to the rest of the horoscopes as well. Boeing-787lover 13:56, 30 November 2017 (UTC)

The entire comic appears to be exclusively geared toward Americans. EebstertheGreat (talk) 23:08, 12 October 2022 (UTC)

Aries and to a lesser extent Cancer: kids went back to school, leaving house empty, or if your parents are in education (incl. college) they'd just started a new semester and met a bunch of new people. Singlelinelabyrinth (talk) 19:21, 26 July 2020 (UTC)


Gestation period

The accepted length of a pregnancy in the U.S. is 38 weeks, but this is not true everywhere. In France, for instance, the term is 41 weeks. Both of these are just traditional and not based on precise data. A good study to look to here is Jukic, Baird, Weinberg, McConnaughey, and Wilcox "Length of human pregnancy and contributors to its natural variation." This study is a very belated 2010 follow-up on a 1985 study on the rate of early pregnancy loss by Wilcox et al. They recruited women who had just ceased birth control because they intended to become pregnant. Although the study doesn't specify, they presumably had sex almost ever night, and according to the follow-up, urine samples were collected EVERY MORNING. These samples were tested for the presence of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), and if it was present above the threshold, the women were determined to be pregnant. Not much analysis was done on the question of how long after implantation it takes for hCG levels to rise above that threshold, but my tiny modicum of biological understanding suggests it should be hardly any time at all. The original study used this early-pregnancy data to measure the rate of loss of the fetus very early in pregnancy, controversially finding it to be around 30%.

The follow-up had a different goal. It re-contacted those same women and managed to recruit most (though not all) into a new survey. The goal was to determine which of these women had artificially shortened their pregnancies through cesarean sections or other methods in order to exclude them from the analysis (with measures taken to account for the biases this introduces). The women who were not excluded numbered 120 and had a (corrected) median gestational time (from ovulation to birth) of 38 weeks 2 days. But what is more interesting is that even after excluding premature outliers, this sample of 120 women had a range of 37 days. That means the earliest non-excluded birth was 37 days before the latest birth.

I think this explains why there is so much variation in how different countries treat births and why we never get a precise figure. Even within a single population of women (I think from around North Carolina? They don't say), the range of outcomes is enormous. Still, I think this is strong evidence that the average gestational period is closer to 38 weeks than to 40 weeks (or 41, as the French would have it). But at any rate, I imagine the magic number Randall had in mind was 9 months, figured as 3/4 of a year (i.e. about 274 days, or 39 weeks 1 day). EebstertheGreat (talk) 23:08, 12 October 2022 (UTC)