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| − | {{comic
| + | '''SPACESHIPS === FAKE |
| − | | number = 2107
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| − | | date = February 4, 2019
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| − | | title = Launch Risk
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| − | | image = launch_risk.png
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| − | | titletext = Don't worry--you're less likely to die from a space launch than from a shark attack. The survival rate is pretty high for both!
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| − | }}
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| | | | |
| − | ==Explanation==
| + | REALIZE THE TRUTH |
| − | {{incomplete|Created by an ASTRONAUT STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
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| − | This comic deals with statistics based on a large population, such as all Americans, when the people in question are in a smaller group with vastly different statistics, such as astronauts.
| + | FIGHT THE LIES |
| | + | ''' |
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| − | In a capsule about to be launched into space, one astronaut asks another how they are feeling. The second one admits to feeling nervous. The first one offers the supposedly reassuring observation that they are more likely to be struck by lightning than to be selected as an astronaut. Such "more likely to be struck by lightning" comparisons are commonly used to illustrate that a particular risk is very remote, and thus should not be considered particularly frightening.
| + | == SOON THE TRUTH WILL BE REVEALED == |
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| − | The second one agrees with the first one for a moment, but then realizes that something is wrong with the argument. Presumably, they realize that the likelihood of being ''selected as an astronaut'' is a moot point -- they are there because they ''already have'' been selected as an astronaut. The relevant concern is the risk level faced by an astronaut, given that they already hold that position. Unfortunately, the historical record shows that this risk is somewhat high, certainly far above the minuscule risk of being struck by lightning.
| + | == SOON THE TRUTH WILL BE REVEALED == |
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| − | The lifetime odds of being struck by lightning are approximately 1 in 14,600. [https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds How Dangerous is Lightning?]
| + | == SOON THE TRUTH WILL BE REVEALED == |
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| − | The title text refers to another common comparison, the risk of a shark attack. In addition to shark attacks being rather rare, they are also not as likely to kill the victim as is commonly assumed. Most people attacked by sharks, and most people launched into space, live through the experience; however, it remains true that both are considerably riskier than many if not most common activities.{{Citation needed}}
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| − | A tall rocket, such as depicted would be more likely to be struck by lightning than nearby structures. However launch controllers monitor weather carefully to reduce the chances of attempting to launch when lightning is likely.
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| − | A space craft launch can trigger lightning, by creating a conductive path through charge bearing clouds, which would normally not produce lightning. Apollo 12 was struck by triggered lightning twice during launch phase, resulting in the entire operational platform shutting down from overload. Backup systems allowed the flight to proceed. [https://www.nasa.gov/audience/foreducators/9-12/features/F_Lightning_and_Launches_9_12.html NASA: Lightning and Launches]
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| − | | |
| − | ==Transcript== | |
| − | {{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
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| − | | |
| − | :[A rocket is about to launch.]
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| − | :Astronaut 1: How you feeling?
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| − | :Astronaut 2: Honestly, pretty nervous.
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| − | :Astronaut 1: I know it seems dangerous, but just remember: you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to be selected to become an astronaut.
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| − | :Astronaut 2: Oh that's a good-
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| − | :Astronaut 2: ...Wait.
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| − | :Countdown: T-Minus 20...19...
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| − | | |
| − | {{comic discussion}}
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