Editing 2203: Prescience

{{comic
| number    = 2203
| date      = September 16, 2019
| title     = Prescience
| image     = prescience.png
| titletext = Lots of people called their ships unsinkable before the Titanic. Voicing your hubris doesn't make failure more likely, just more memorable.
}}

==Explanation==

In this comic, [[Cueball]] states that it's been a long time since there's been a really big {{w|Impact event|meteor impact}}. Due to the {{w|Gambler's Fallacy}}, this is taken to be Cueball implying that a big meteor impact is coming soon. The off-panel voice is annoyed about his statement, but whether from fear of it happening or because he does this all the time is unclear, see more below. The joke is that Cueball does this often, also with other types of major random events, just in case they do actually happen soon. For instance, if there does happen to be an impact soon after he made the statement, it makes him look incredibly {{w|prescient}}, whereas if there isn't one, no one really cares or remembers.

It is also unclear how big an impact he refers to. It has been 60 million years since the {{w|Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event|impact that killed the dinosaurs}}, but that if that is the type of event he refers to, then maybe no one will be there to remember what he said. So, it is likely much smaller impacts he is talking about. ''Prescience'' means to predict the future. It is clear from this comic that [[Randall]] makes fun of both of those that claim to have prescience and of those that have a superstition against talking about something happening that could cause it to happen. Although only one method is scientifically recognized, there are at least three possible sources of prescience recognized by people.

The first of the two main ways of predicting the future involves a mix of common sense and historical knowledge.  By understanding the past, the direction of the future can be guessed at with varying levels of accuracy.  This type of prescience is also known sometimes as future modelling, statistical prediction, psychohistory, and even wisdom to name a few. The second way to predict the future is not scientifically recognized but remains popular in culture and fiction.  It can involve magic, psychic power, higher powers (gods), and other such methods.  Collectively, they are labelled supernatural; any method to predict the future using this class of method cannot be easily measured by science.

Although not technically a way to predict the future, the third way to predict the future is through superstition.  The method involved in this comic effectively boils down to "speak the name of evil, and you will summon it."  This superstition can have surprising power in people's lives, however.  A woman planning her outdoor wedding may feel the urge to hit her friend if they say "Gosh, I hope it doesn't rain on that day."  A doctor working in the Emergency Room may feel the need to kick anyone who says "Wow, it's really quiet around here."  Such thoughts spoken aloud do not have the power to control the weather or cause people to seriously injure themselves.  Yet people often react emotionally as if not speaking the name of 'evil' will keep it away.

This comic may reflect that emotional reaction when the off-screen character yells at Cueball: "Will you stop that?!". Alternatively, it is one, like [[Megan]], who knows Cueball well enough to know that which is stated in the caption, that he only does this to look good if said thing happens. And the person is so tired of it! Maybe Cueball does it at least once a week, and obviously from the caption, it is not only about meteor impact, but any major random event, that he could then be remembered as having predicted. The title has a double meaning. The first meaning is about the prescience that would appear if one actually predicts a natural disaster this way. The second meaning involves the fact that it is spelled pre-science - since there are many more scientific ways to predict meteor impacts, even though they aren't entirely accurate. This comic has a clear resemblance to the [[:Category:My Hobby|My Hobby]] series. This would also make it clear the Cueball in this comic is actually [[Randall]]. The entire setup and punch line of this comic is very similar to this old comic: [[525: I Know You're Listening]], and [[628: Psychic]] and [[858: Milk]] also use the idea of guessing something that will make you look special.

The title text refers to the {{w|RMS Titanic|RMS ''Titanic''}}, a ship which was claimed to be unsinkable by those promoting its maiden voyage. The use of multiple water-tight compartments allowed the ship to suffer a moderate amount of damage without sinking. Unfortunately, there existed a way for the ship to suffer damage in a way which caused more compartments to be filled with water than it could survive; and, therefore, it could &mdash; and eventually ''did'' &mdash; sink. But with all the news stories that had just been published hailing this unsinkable ship as a modern wonder of the world, this shipwreck was particularly ironic. The story of the sinking of the ''Titanic'' has been memorialized in popular culture, most memorably in the 1997 film {{w|Titanic (1997 film)|Titanic}}. 

In the title text, Randall thus suggests that lots of ships had been called unsinkable before Titanic. But saying such {{w|hubris}} aloud doesn't make any ship more likely to sink. But when such a ship, like Titanic, then sinks it does, however, increase the value of the story ensuring it will be remembered. It should be noted that few among the ship's builders or crew boasted the ''Titanic'' to be unsinkable. Most of the boasting came from the owners that used the news media of the day to create hype and promote their ship, just when the ship was finished and dedicated (the ship's builders did, however, boast that the ship exceeded all safety standards of the time). In addition, the hubris was only one small part of the fame of the sinking of the ''Titanic''; the ''Titanic'''s status as a world record setter for most massive ship ever built, the incredible wealth of most of its passengers, and the fact it sank on its maiden voyage all contributed to the fame and hype behind the great maritime tragedy.

Ironically, part of what caused this disaster was hubris, since those that were interested in promoting the ship also wished it to make a speed record, by reaching New York a day before expected. Thus, the captain, even though he would have realised that the ship could sink, took the fateful decisions of running at full speed through waters known to contain icebergs during a still night with very calm waters. Spotting icebergs in such conditions is known to be difficult, especially as there will be no notably foaming waves around the icebergs' bases and patchy mists will inconveniently diffuse the horizons and any useful starlight.

The entire setup and punch line of this comic is very similar to this old comic: [[525: I Know You're Listening]].

==Transcript==
:[Cueball is sitting in an armchair holding a book. He seems to be looking off as he talks to an off-panel person behind him. This person replies.]
:Cueball: You know, it's been a while since there's been a really big meteor impact.
:Off-panel voice: '''''Will you stop that?!'''''

:[Caption below the panel:]
:I say this kind of thing every so often, because I don't believe it affects the outcome and it has a slim chance of looking ''incredibly'' prescient.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]