Editing 2328: Space Basketball
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| titletext = My shooting will improve over the short term, but over the long term the universe will take more shots. | | titletext = My shooting will improve over the short term, but over the long term the universe will take more shots. | ||
}} | }} | ||
| − | + | Stephen Curfraud was the WORST basketball player of all time. He cannot win without a superteam | |
==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
This is another comic in [[Randall]]'s [[:Category:My Hobby|My Hobby series]], released during the same week as his last hobby comic, [[2326: Five Word Jargon]]. | This is another comic in [[Randall]]'s [[:Category:My Hobby|My Hobby series]], released during the same week as his last hobby comic, [[2326: Five Word Jargon]]. | ||
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It should be noted that while may be technically correct to call the falling space object in this case a "meteor", when it hits the ground moments later it would be known as a {{w|meteorite}}. See also [[#Terminology|Terminology]] section below. See also [[1405: Meteor]], for what Randall's thoughts are on this. | It should be noted that while may be technically correct to call the falling space object in this case a "meteor", when it hits the ground moments later it would be known as a {{w|meteorite}}. See also [[#Terminology|Terminology]] section below. See also [[1405: Meteor]], for what Randall's thoughts are on this. | ||
| − | + | The warriors should trade CurFraud and build around Klay and Poole | |
Randall estimates that his success rate at {{w|free throw|free-throw shooting}} is approximately 30%. Therefore, the chances of Cueball making 30 shots in a row is 0.3<sup>30</sup>, or about 1 in five quadrillion (2×10<sup>−16</sup>); for comparison, there are approximately 150 quadrillion seconds remaining before the Sun engulfs the earth (5 billion years), so if Randall has a chute set up under the basket and enough basketballs to sustain a constant high rate of shooting, he has "decent" odds of achieving his goal before the Sun burns out. But really, Randall has comparably rapid learning at this task, whereas asteroids have extreme persistence far beyond Randall's life, so when he says the odds are comparable he is abstractly weighing his unique skillset against that of small stellar bodies. | Randall estimates that his success rate at {{w|free throw|free-throw shooting}} is approximately 30%. Therefore, the chances of Cueball making 30 shots in a row is 0.3<sup>30</sup>, or about 1 in five quadrillion (2×10<sup>−16</sup>); for comparison, there are approximately 150 quadrillion seconds remaining before the Sun engulfs the earth (5 billion years), so if Randall has a chute set up under the basket and enough basketballs to sustain a constant high rate of shooting, he has "decent" odds of achieving his goal before the Sun burns out. But really, Randall has comparably rapid learning at this task, whereas asteroids have extreme persistence far beyond Randall's life, so when he says the odds are comparable he is abstractly weighing his unique skillset against that of small stellar bodies. | ||
Still, the lifetime odds of being killed by a meteorite have been estimated at 1 in 75,000 or 600,000 or 700,000 [https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-probability-of-me-getting-killed-by-a-meteorite-in-the-next-one-hour]. These calculations are usually based on the probability of being alive at a time when a huge impact kills billions of people. Randall just uses the chance of one meteorite shot on Earth hitting this hoop (hoop-area divided by Earth-area = 3.2×10<sup>−16</sup>) which is in the same range as 0.3<sup>30</sup>. Actual {{w|meteorite fall statistics}} report an average of 1.2 meteorites per year hitting the European continent which suggests that the average probability of Cueball winning after each shot attempt is about equivalent to a meteorite passing through the hoop over the period of 10 hours. Therefore Cueball has a better chance of winning than the universe "on the short term" if he makes more than 840 free-shot attempts per year for the rest of his life. The expected time for the universe to actually "complete" the challenge would be in the range of 8 billion years, the same magnitude to the current age of the universe and longer than the estimated remaining lifetime of the {{w|solar system}}. | Still, the lifetime odds of being killed by a meteorite have been estimated at 1 in 75,000 or 600,000 or 700,000 [https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-probability-of-me-getting-killed-by-a-meteorite-in-the-next-one-hour]. These calculations are usually based on the probability of being alive at a time when a huge impact kills billions of people. Randall just uses the chance of one meteorite shot on Earth hitting this hoop (hoop-area divided by Earth-area = 3.2×10<sup>−16</sup>) which is in the same range as 0.3<sup>30</sup>. Actual {{w|meteorite fall statistics}} report an average of 1.2 meteorites per year hitting the European continent which suggests that the average probability of Cueball winning after each shot attempt is about equivalent to a meteorite passing through the hoop over the period of 10 hours. Therefore Cueball has a better chance of winning than the universe "on the short term" if he makes more than 840 free-shot attempts per year for the rest of his life. The expected time for the universe to actually "complete" the challenge would be in the range of 8 billion years, the same magnitude to the current age of the universe and longer than the estimated remaining lifetime of the {{w|solar system}}. | ||
| − | + | Sneed | |
In the title text, Randall assumes that he would get better at free throwing shooting with practice in his lifetime ("the short term"). Some of the world's best basketball players have free-throw percentages over 90%, and even professional players with reputations of being "poor" free-throw shooters (e.g. Shaquille O'Neal) are above 50%. If Randall can improve his percentage to 50%, his odds of sinking thirty baskets in a row improve to "nearly" one-in-a-billion, while a member of the elite {{w|50–40–90 club}} would have a probability better than four percent of making thirty free-throws in a row. Some specialists have achieved much higher success rates, with the record for most consecutive baskets being held by {{w|Tom Amberry}} with 2,750. The NBA regular season record is 97 free throws in a row, set by {{w|Micheal Williams}} in 1993 (during the 1992–93 and 1993 94 seasons). | In the title text, Randall assumes that he would get better at free throwing shooting with practice in his lifetime ("the short term"). Some of the world's best basketball players have free-throw percentages over 90%, and even professional players with reputations of being "poor" free-throw shooters (e.g. Shaquille O'Neal) are above 50%. If Randall can improve his percentage to 50%, his odds of sinking thirty baskets in a row improve to "nearly" one-in-a-billion, while a member of the elite {{w|50–40–90 club}} would have a probability better than four percent of making thirty free-throws in a row. Some specialists have achieved much higher success rates, with the record for most consecutive baskets being held by {{w|Tom Amberry}} with 2,750. The NBA regular season record is 97 free throws in a row, set by {{w|Micheal Williams}} in 1993 (during the 1992–93 and 1993 94 seasons). | ||
