Difference between revisions of "2636: What If? 2 Countdown"

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| 52 || Jul 23 || 60 Viewings of ''Star Wars Episodes I-IX'' || 51.75 days || According to [[https://dorksideoftheforce.com/2021/05/04/how-long-to-watch-every-star-wars-movie/ Fansided]] the combined running times are 20 hours 42 minutes.
 
| 52 || Jul 23 || 60 Viewings of ''Star Wars Episodes I-IX'' || 51.75 days || According to [[https://dorksideoftheforce.com/2021/05/04/how-long-to-watch-every-star-wars-movie/ Fansided]] the combined running times are 20 hours 42 minutes.
 
|-
 
|-
| 51 || Jul 24 || 1/ 100,000,000,000th of the Universe's age || ||
+
| 51 || Jul 24 || 1/ 100,000,000,000th of the Universe's age || || The universe is estimated to be about 13.8 billion years old.
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 50 || Jul 25 || 5 milli-Generations || 49.3 days || See day 79 (Jun 26)
 
| 50 || Jul 25 || 5 milli-Generations || 49.3 days || See day 79 (Jun 26)

Revision as of 16:00, 23 June 2022

What If? 2 Countdown
If you don't end the 99 Bottles of Beer recursion at N=0 it just becomes The Other Song That Never Ends.
Title text: If you don't end the 99 Bottles of Beer recursion at N=0 it just becomes The Other Song That Never Ends.

Explanation

Ambox notice.png This explanation may be incomplete or incorrect: Created by a BOT THAT IS WONDERING ABOUT THINGS - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.
If you can address this issue, please edit the page! Thanks.

This comic takes the idea of Advent calendars, and takes it to the extreme. It uses rather absurd and/or obscure ways to measure the amount of time until Randall's new book What if? 2 is released, with esoteric units or esoteric numbers. And often both.

Days Date Units Exact value Explanation
83 Jun 22 πe millidecades 82.0304 days π =~ 3.14159, e =~ 2.718, so πe is about 22.459. A millidecade is 1/1000 decade, or 1/100 year, or about 3.6525 days. Multiplying these results in 82.03 days. This is a play on Euler's identity, e=-1, but raising pi to the power of e instead.
82 Jun 23 7 megaseconds 81.0185 days 7,000,000 seconds
81 Jun 24 e lunar months 80.27247 days A lunar month =~ 29.53059 days, e =~ 2.718
80 Jun 25 60 rotations of Foucault's pendulum in Paris 79.67 days The Foucault's pendulum measures and/or proves earth's rotation. Possibly a reference to the Bogdanow brothers who used pointless circumlocutions with the Foucalt pendulum as tech babble in their fake dissertation
79 Jun 26 8 milligenerations 78.84 days A generation is in general 22-33 years, the mean is 27; so 8 * 0.001 (mili) * 365 (not accounting for leap years) * 27 =~ 78.84 days
78 Jun 27 777,777 dog minutes 77.16 days A popular myth is that dogs age 7 times faster than humans, so 1 dog minute equals 1/7 human minutes.
77 Jun 28 7! episodes of Jeopardy! (skipping ads) 77 days 7!=7*6*…=5040 - The standard episode of Jeopardy is 22-26 minutes skipping ads - taking the lowest value you get 110880 minutes total which is the exact value needed.
76 Jun 29 5,000 repeats of 99 Bottles of Beer Each verse of 99 Bottles of Beer is "N bottles of beer on the wall, N bottles of beer. Take one down, pass it around, N-1 bottles of beer on the wall." The entire song contains 99 verses. Randall apparently sings this rather slowly, taking about 13 seconds per verse.
75 Jun 30 5 baker's fortnights (15 days) 75 days A baker's dozen is a dozen (12) plus 1 extra item. Randall has generalized this to adding 1 to any unit. A fortnight is 2 weeks, so a baker's fortnight is 15 days. 5x15 is 75 days.
74 Jul 1 √2 dog years 73.79 days See day 78 (Jun 27)
73 Jul 2 π millivics (1/1000th of Queen Victoria's reign) 72.966631 days Queen Victoria ruled between 20 June 1837 and 22 January 1901 (23,226 days).
72 Jul 3 42 drives from NYC to LA (Google Maps estimate) 71.75 days According to Google Maps, the drive from New York City to Los Angeles via I-80 W (2789 miles or 4489 km) takes 41 hours.
71 Jul 4 1,000 viewings of Groundhog Day 70.14 days Using 101-minute run time.
70 Jul 5 100,000 minutes 69.44 days
69 Jul 6 1/10th of Martian year 68.70 Earth days Martian sidereal and tropical years both round to 687.0 Earth days
68 Jul 7 1,234,567 sound-miles The speed of sound in air depends on the temperature. 15 °C or 59 °F gives the value 340 m/s and the travel time of 67.6349058 days.
67 Jul 8 2^π^e seconds 5,766,073 seconds = 66.7 days 2^(π^e)
66 Jul 9 2^16 beats (Swatch Internet Time) 65.536 days .beat is equal to 1/1000 day.
65 Jul 10 1,000 ISS orbits Each orbit of the ISS takes approximately 90 minutes.
64 Jul 11 Five hundred twenty five thousand (base seven) Minutes 62.8833333333333 days To convert from any number system to the decimal number system, the value of each digit is calculated as "value" * "base" ^ "position of the digit minus one" counting the position of the digit starting from the less significant side. The values of each digit are then added to get the value of the whole number. Base seven means the number only uses 7 digits (0-6). To represent 7 (base10) you would need the first two-digit number, which is 10 (base7). This gives: 5*7^5 + 2*7^4 + 5*7^3 + 0*7^2 + 0*7^1 + 0*7^0 = 90552 minutes. Also references the opening and recurring line "Five hundred twenty five thousand six hundred minutes" from Seasons of Love, a song from the musical Rent ("base seven" has the same rhythem as "six hundred").
63 Jul 12 10^50 Planck times 62.38 days 10^50 x 5.39 x 10^-44 seconds
62 Jul 13 4,000 episodes of The Office (skipping ads)
61 Jul 14 Four Score and Seven Kilominutes 60.4166 days 87 * 1000 minutes
60 Jul 15 2 Lunar Months There are a number of different ways to define the lunar month. The most common is the synodic month, because it relates to the phases of the moon, and it's a bit more than 29.5 days.
59 Jul 16 Half a Day on Venus A Venus synodic day is 116 days 18 hours.
58 Jul 17 5 megaseconds 57.8704 days 5,000,000 seconds
57 Jul 18 30 MicroLits (1/1,000,000th of the time since the invention of literature) 4681-4763 years x 10^-6 Randall is stating that "literature" was invented approximately 2700 BCE. This is consistent with the earliest surviving coherent Sumerian texts, but the earliest proto-writing likely developed at least 500 years earlier History_of_writing
56 Jul 19 1,000 viewings of Run Lola Run 55.556 days Using a run time of 80 minutes
55 Jul 20 One Million Sound-Miles The speed of sound in air depends on the temperature. 15 °C or 59 °F gives the value 340 m/s and the travel time of 54.7843137 days.
54 Jul 21 30 Ionian Months 53.0741 days Orbital period of Io around Jupiter is 1.769137786 days
53 Jul 22 One Dog Year 52.18 days See day 78 (Jun 27)
52 Jul 23 60 Viewings of Star Wars Episodes I-IX 51.75 days According to [Fansided] the combined running times are 20 hours 42 minutes.
51 Jul 24 1/ 100,000,000,000th of the Universe's age The universe is estimated to be about 13.8 billion years old.
50 Jul 25 5 milli-Generations 49.3 days See day 79 (Jun 26)
49 Jul 26 10,000 Games of 7 minutes in Heaven or 7 games of 10,000 minutes in Heaven 48.61 days 70,000 minutes. 10,000 minutes in Heaven is almost a week of making out.
48 Jul 27 φ^e^π minutes 47.6164 days 68,567.57 minutes
47 Jul 28 4 megaseconds 46.2963 days 4,000,000 seconds
46 Jul 29 2^16 minutes 45.5111 days 65,536 minutes
45 Jul 30 e^e^e seconds 44.1467 days 3,814,279.10 seconds
44 Jul 31 π fortnights 43.98 days
43 Aug 1 One Devil's spacewalk (666 orbits of the ISS)
42 Aug 2 1 kilowatt-hour per watt 41⅔ days 1000 hours
41 Aug 3 e^π Ionian months 40.9390 days Orbital period of Io around Jupiter is 1.769137786 days
40 Aug 4 30 rotations of Foucault's pendulum in Paris 39.8357 days Refer to Day 80 (Jun 25)
39 Aug 5 e fortnights 38.0559 days
38 Aug 6 π^π baker's days (25 hours) 37.98 days See day 75 (Jun 30)
37 Aug 7 One deciyear 36.525 days One tenth of one year
36 Aug 8 7! milliweeks 35.28 days 5040 × 0.001 weeks
35 Aug 9 100,000 plays of the Jeopardy! "Think" music
34 Aug 10
33 Aug 11 777 hours 32.375 days
32 Aug 12
31 Aug 13
30 Aug 14
29 Aug 15 777,777 nanocenturies 28.4077 days 777,777 × 10-9 × 102 years
28 Aug 16
27 Aug 17 6 dog months 26.1 days See day 78 (Jun 27)
26 Aug 18 π^π kilominutes 25.3209 days 36,462.16 minutes
25 Aug 19
24 Aug 20
23 Aug 21
22 Aug 22
21 Aug 23 500 hours 20.8333 days
20 Aug 24 √2 fortnights 19.7990 days 1.4142 × 14 days
19 Aug 25
18 Aug 26
17 Aug 27 √2 megaseconds 16.3682 days 1.4142 × 1,000,000 seconds
16 Aug 28 π^π^π πcoseconds 15.5112 days 1.3402 × 1018 picoseconds (i.e., 10-12 seconds), or 1.3402 megaseconds
15 Aug 29 One baker's fortnight (15 days) 15 days See day 75 (Jun 30)
14 Aug 30 One baker's dozen (13) baker's days (25 hours) 13.5416 days 325 hours; see day 75 (Jun 30)
13 Aug 31 300 hours 12.5 days
12 Sep 1 One million seconds 11.57 days
11 Sep 2 One nonstop bike ride from NYC to LA 10.54 days Google maps estimates the trip at 253 hours
10 Sep 3 1/1,000th of a generation 9.86 days See day 79 (Jun 26)
9 Sep 4 777,777 seconds 9.002 days
8 Sep 5 100 viewings of Groundhog Day 7.014 days Based on a running time of 101 minutes
7 Sep 6 100 games of Lincoln Kissing (Fourscore and seven minutes in Heaven) 6.04 days 8,700 minutes
6 Sep 7 One pico-Universe-lifetime
5 Sep 8 The Baby Shark chorus for a family of 50,000 sharks
4 Sep 9 One centiyear 3.6525 days
3 Sep 10 Cyndi Lauper's Time After Time played 1,000 times 2.79 days Based on a length of 4 minutes, 1 second
2 Sep 11 Speed (1994) played at one frame per second 1.933 days Speed_(1994_film) has runtime of 116 minutes = 6,960 seconds = 167,040 film frames at standard frame rate of 24 frames/second
1 Sep 12 F(99) where F(N) means Sing all the verses of N Bottles of Beer On the wall followed by F(N-1) Each iteration contains N verses. N + N-1 + N-2 ... + 1 equals N * (N+1) / 2, so 99 recursions = 4950 verses. Using the same 13-second rate as Jun 29, this is close to 18 hours.
0 Sep 13 What If? 2 Release day

The title text refers to the recursive time period on Sep 12. If you don't stop when you reach N=0 bottles, the repetition never ends, so that time interval beecomes infinite. He likens it to The Song That Never Ends, another repetitive children's song, which is specifically intended to go on forever. The difference is that the Beer song has a natural stopping point at 0, while The Song That Never Ends is completely repetitive.

Transcript

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Discussion

I've started the table to explain all the calendar entries. Barmar (talk) 00:19, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

Is the dog minutes calculation backwards? 777,777 dog minutes should be 777,777 x 7 human minutes, which is over 10 years. Randall seems to be dividing instead of multiplying. Barmar (talk) 00:36, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

No - 1 human year = 7 dog years; 1 dog year = 1/7 human year; 1 dog minute = 1/7 human minute; 777,777 dog minutes = 111,111 human minutes = 77 days, 3 hours, 51 minutes. 172.70.90.173 11:32, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

First entry is probably mistake by Randall, e^pi would give value of 84.5 162.158.203.38 11:57, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

That would be too high, though. 82.xxx days (from midnight at the start of launch day) would fall within the 83rd day before it (Jun 22). 84.5 would fall within the 85th (Jun 20). 172.70.91.58 12:15, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

Not sure if this is even worth mentioning, but he forgot the box around the date number in the top corner for August 29th. 172.70.126.151 12:49, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

Fyi, used wolfram alpha for most of the calculations. Seems to be able to handle anything I throw at it (nanocenturies, megaseconds, fortnights etc) Aditya95sriram (talk) 13:02, 23 June 2022 (UTC)aditya95sriram

Some of the calculations done forward (assuming what Randall means as a Generation, for example) might be best done as "to get this many days, what does Randall think ilhe is starting from. And see if 365, 365.25 or even 365.24 days per year works best, where relevent. Although I think in many cases you'll find the fractional differences negligable, when done right. (I'm also a bit surprised by the off-by-one errors in days-to-go and derived value, but I suspect that this is because of assymetric rounding effects that would be revealed by running the assumption backwards and seeing how different (or otherwise) the decimals actually are.) 172.70.85.211 13:32, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

I would suggest using 365.2425 days per year, as that's consistent with current leap year conventions. Dansiman (talk) 21:49, 23 June 2022 (UTC)
Did not see your comment, but already done trivial replacement. No recalculation that goes more complicated than magnitude, though.
(For the mathematically curious, in the Gregorian calendar it's normally 365 days, but a leap day every four years (+0.25 => 365.25), except no leap day every century (-0.01 => 365.24), except there is every fourth century (+0.0025 => 365.2425). Which is very very close to the more astronomically-precise figure of 365.2422, at least at this point in our planet's history and definitely over the timescale of the Gregorian calendar itself. edit-to-add-convoluted-musings: A successor system might need to de-reinstate three of the Four-Millenial leap-days in every 10,000 year period, or perhaps by re-removing four of its various leap-days then re-reinstating one of those back again, but by the time it's relevent I doubt that 365.2422 is going to be as valid for whatever reason... Hey, by then, maybe we could just deliberately adjust the Earth in or out a bit to make it a better fraction/not a fraction at all! )
On the other hand, the old adage is "no use being precise over imprecise details". One can perhaps apply it to nominal decades (the true average decade; though a given decade might be 10*365 days plus either two or three leap-days, for 3652.5±0.5 days in that instance... not equally likely each way, though) but the Generations calculation already assumes 27 years per generation (not even 27.5, exactly half way between 22 and 33, which already seems a dubious backformation to suit other purposes) and gets a good-enough approximate number. Using a factor precise to around 1 in 146000 alongside one that's unlikely to be even as accurate as 1 in 54 is a bit rich and overly anal (rather than analytic) in the long-run.
But this is explainxkcd, so I'm not saying it's misplaced, just that those who would be pedantic about everything (myself included) might find themselves even more out-pedanted in very reasonable circumstances... ;) 172.70.162.77 22:47, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

Not sure about most numbers but at least the order of magnitude seemed plausible. I can't quite find a proper way to read August 28th. π^π^π is roughly 80662.666 - if you read πcoseconds as "picoseconds", that's way less than a second. I have no idea what π * coseconds are supposed to be. π * c * o * seconds doesn't look much better - there are values associated with "c" (speed of light, for example) but I have no idea what "o" could be and certainly nothing that would make this a unit of time. Sixteen days would be 1,353,600,000,000,000,000 ps (picoseconds). π^π^π^π is three orders of magnitude too small, π^π^π^π^π is many orders of magnitude too big a number. Am I missing something (really obvious, maybe?) here? 627235 (talk) 14:52, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

Exponent towers are by convention evaluated top-down, so pi^pi^pi should be read as pi^(pi^pi), which is ~1.34e18, which in picoseconds is ~15.51 days. 172.70.114.71 15:21, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

10,000 minutes in Heaven is making out for a week. I was able to find a record for the longest kiss (58 hours, 35 minutes), but not the longest make-out session. I think Randall may be indulging in some nerdy wishfull thinking. Barmar (talk) 15:27, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

When the beer song reached F(0) how would you 'take one down' from -1 bottles of beer? Would they be imaginary bottles of beer? (Joking) At F(n-1) would there be a matter/antimatter annihilation, where Randal could do a riff of What-If #1 and describe the play by play of the bartender turning into exotic forms of matter? 172.69.68.88 15:58, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

(Not ✓-1, it's just straight repeated subtraction, not a power function...) After so much beer, you probably think it a good idea (even necessary) to fill cans up and start to put them back up on the wall... Not sure you could sustain it, to the point of F(-99), but I think someone'd be more than ready to start the process when F(-1) is invoked, for any group of just a few likely individuals.. 172.70.91.58 16:23, 23 June 2022 (UTC)
This begs the question of what beer bottles are doing on a wall, rather than a shelf. Barmar (talk) 16:26, 23 June 2022 (UTC)
Randall already considered what happens at F(0), refer to the title text. Paddles (talk) 08:16, 24 June 2022 (UTC)
If you wanted to take down an imaginary bottle of beer, you'd have to take it from another wall that runs orthogonal to the original wall. 172.70.85.211 08:50, 24 June 2022 (UTC)

We've finally filled in all the units columns in the table. Hopefully someone can automate turning that into a transcript. Barmar (talk) 16:51, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

Funfact: This comic mentions Cyndi Lauper by name, and it was published on her birthday… 162.158.38.27 20:51, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

Sweet! I'm a big fan of playing Time after Time on repeat to get into a flow state, so I loved that one. 162.158.166.183 20:43, 24 June 2022 (UTC)

Looks like someone's math is wrong on the explanation for July 18. I calculated using 4681 and 4763 years and they came out to 51.29 days and 52.19 days, respectively. So then I worked backwards and determined that Randall would actually have to be using a number closer to 5200 years to arrive at the correct result of 57 days. Dansiman (talk) 21:49, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

Randall seems to be wrong about "It's a Small World". The song is about 2 minutes long, so at 1/10,000 speed it's 20,000 minutes = 14 days. He seems to be using a length a little over 3 minutes. I found a YouTube video of the ride that's 3:45, but the song ends at 2:15 and the rest is silent. Barmar (talk) 22:16, 23 June 2022 (UTC)

This video of it on YouTube lasts 3:02. It was uploaded by Universal Music Group (allied with Disney), making it some kind of 'official' version, and its length fits Randall's calculation. (Also, thanks for making the table!) DKMell (talk) 22:38, 23 June 2022 (UTC)
That could be it. It has a long instrumental coda after the singing is done. Barmar (talk) 14:07, 24 June 2022 (UTC)

Could "eπ Ionian months" also be a very subtle reference to the Euler identity given the first two characters of Ionian? Or am I reading/visualising a bit too much into it? Paddles (talk) 08:16, 24 June 2022 (UTC)

Aug 26 needs editing, but I just reset my password and can't fix it. At 4 breaths per minute, 100,000 breaths is 17.36 days. To get 17 days exactly, Randall would need to assume about 4.085 breaths per minute. Wjw 08:24, 24 June 2022 (UTC)

Most of the calculations are very approximate. Barmar (talk) 14:07, 24 June 2022 (UTC)
Many of them were given to subsecond digits of precision, too, so I rounded everything off to two significant digits of days unless there was some compelling reason to have 0, 1, or 3. Don't @ me, because I filled up and homogenized all that column, finally (except for 100,000 breaths, which are slow enough to be what I'm guessing is probably Randall's error.) If someone wants to get a better value for the total duration of Star Trek than the January, 2021 reference I found by counting all the released episodes since up to the date of the cartoon, please do. 162.158.166.183 20:26, 24 June 2022 (UTC)
For Star Trek total run time, it might be best to count all episodes scheduled for release up until August 14, the date of that specification. 172.70.210.233 21:02, 24 June 2022 (UTC)

There's a closing /div HTML tag on the front page after the transcript (but not on this page). Nitpicking (talk) 17:21, 24 June 2022 (UTC)

Thoughts on including a "% of error" column in the table?172.70.130.121 15:54, 27 June 2022 (UTC)

An additional column would make it look worse on mobile portrait, and a residual error wouldn't really explain anything that readers couldn't get a gist of by eyeballing. 172.70.210.233 01:31, 3 July 2022 (UTC)
Most of these don't really have a margin of error, they're all based on specific numbers, beyond that most of them can go to a ridiculous number of decimal places (mostly due to the infinite decimal places of pi, e and phi). Rounding to 2 decimal places is sufficient and doesn't count as a "margin of error". NiceGuy1 (talk) 23:54, 3 July 2022 (UTC)

Several entries were rather unspecific, particularly the ones just saying "See day whatever" (and one "Refer"), so I plugged in some numbers. Also, it seems like the Star Trek entry should specify what's included - strange that unlike the others, it doesn't end up under a day less than the target. Also, that entry referred to/used an article which summarized CBR, I replaced it with the detailed article from CBR itself, then listed all the shows and movies, and added the things the article missed. NiceGuy1 (talk) 23:54, 3 July 2022 (UTC)

Great work. I wonder if Randall is counting some fan-made Trek. 172.70.211.36 01:10, 5 July 2022 (UTC)