Editing Talk:2046: Trum-

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This is not that weird.  If names were random then it would be a 1 in 26^4 = 456976 chance of a particular president matching another for the first 4, but this is a "Birthday Problem" with 44 presidents, so the probability of any two presidents sharing the first 4 characters is 1-(456976!/(456976^44 (456976 - 44)!)), which wolfram alpha is giving as 0.206% {{unsigned ip|141.101.99.185}}
 
This is not that weird.  If names were random then it would be a 1 in 26^4 = 456976 chance of a particular president matching another for the first 4, but this is a "Birthday Problem" with 44 presidents, so the probability of any two presidents sharing the first 4 characters is 1-(456976!/(456976^44 (456976 - 44)!)), which wolfram alpha is giving as 0.206% {{unsigned ip|141.101.99.185}}
 
:Yes, but we already "fulfilled our obligation" after the sixth president :) [[User:Zachweix|Zachweix]] ([[User talk:Zachweix|talk]]) 15:59, 14 September 2018 (UTC)
 
:Yes, but we already "fulfilled our obligation" after the sixth president :) [[User:Zachweix|Zachweix]] ([[User talk:Zachweix|talk]]) 15:59, 14 September 2018 (UTC)
βˆ’
:That would be the lower boundary, because you assume all letters are equally likely to occur. Some n-grams will have a higher probability than others. E.g. it is far less likely for the second letter to be a Q than to be a U,so a better estimate would involve Markov chains including the probability of all letters on a certain position, given the previous letters etc.[[Special:Contributions/141.101.76.58|141.101.76.58]] 05:46, 15 September 2018 (UTC)
 
 
::Q doesn't work because he's related to his father John  Adams.  The criteria that they be totally unrelated is to restore it to the realm of pure chance. [[User:N0lqu|-boB]] ([[User talk:N0lqu|talk]]) 17:24, 14 September 2018 (UTC)
 
::Q doesn't work because he's related to his father John  Adams.  The criteria that they be totally unrelated is to restore it to the realm of pure chance. [[User:N0lqu|-boB]] ([[User talk:N0lqu|talk]]) 17:24, 14 September 2018 (UTC)
 
An approximation to the correct probability would be to do 44^2/(2 x 26^4) which would give about 0.2% chance of this happening.  So fairly weird, but as the comic suggests, many things about this presidency are weirder than 0.2%. {{unsigned ip|162.158.155.194}}
 
An approximation to the correct probability would be to do 44^2/(2 x 26^4) which would give about 0.2% chance of this happening.  So fairly weird, but as the comic suggests, many things about this presidency are weirder than 0.2%. {{unsigned ip|162.158.155.194}}

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