Talk:2136: Election Commentary

A lot of election commentary falls under the category of Bayesian inference. The various news agencies have prior distributions for the votes from all of the precincts, and update their estimates of the final total votes based on the precincts that have reported so far. Thus, "Candidate X is leading Candidate Y in votes received, but since only the precincts that previously have favoured X-like candidates have reported in so far, and they aren't giving X as much a lead as expected, we think this means Y will win overall." 162.158.63.208 18:11, 12 April 2019 (UTC)

Anybody else getting tired of whiny Californicators and New Yorkers trying to use their superior population to dictate to the rest of the country how to live? Seebert (talk) 20:12, 12 April 2019 (UTC)

No, I'm tired of small communities trying to use "oh but added up we have a larger population than you!" to try and justify insulting California and New York.172.68.143.144 21:12, 12 April 2019 (UTC)

Except for they don't, because they still don't. You can add together the populations of all the other states combined and not have a majority of voters.Seebert (talk) 21:14, 12 April 2019 (UTC)

California population: 40 million. New York population: 20 million. US population: 330 million. Please check your sources next time.172.68.143.144 21:18, 12 April 2019 (UTC)

Someone do a left-brained election night show, try to hide who you personally favor even though the other candidate sucks, do the digit lead thing and put it on Youtube. Please! But not monotone, make it sound like CNN. Preferably taped on election night so the lack of foreknowledge is real. Like someone could type updates as they come in, give them to the "newscasters" and they'd take the page and be like "this just in, Trump's millions digit in Pennsylvania is now 3, this completely eliminates Bernie's advantage in the other digits, if he doesn't increase this digit (points at digit) to 3 his chances of becoming president drop from 60 to 20 percent. What do you think the chances of that are Bob? Well, since the last time we've analyzed it the chance of that digit exceeding 2 has decreased slightly, to 70%, and even if he wins that digit the battleground just returns to lower digits, his chance of winning the state is still only 50%. The state most likely to vote for the election winner is PA so we'll be watching the shit out of it, even more than Michigan and Wisconsin (the chance of Trump and Sanders becoming president updates)" Even if it's just 2 suits changing cards on a wall with digits and states names on them and a cardboard red and blue map I'd totally watch that the day after.