Difference between revisions of "Talk:2311: Confidence Interval"

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(Error & Confidence.)
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:: Actually, if you [https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=integrate+1%2Fsqrt%282+*+pi%29+*+exp%28-x%5E2+%2F+2%29+from++-0.001+to+0.001 integrate] a normal distribution <math>\mathcal{N}(0,1)</math> from <math>-\frac{\sigma}{1000}=-0.001</math> to <math>+\frac{\sigma}{1000}=0.001</math>, you'll get a range of about 0.08% of all values. This would be bad because it would mean that, as big as the confidence interval appears in the picture, the more meaningful 1- or 3-sigma interval (whose size represents the uncertainty of the model) would be larger by a factor of 1250 or 3750, respectively. --[[User:Koveras|Koveras]] ([[User talk:Koveras|talk]]) 08:38, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
 
:: Actually, if you [https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=integrate+1%2Fsqrt%282+*+pi%29+*+exp%28-x%5E2+%2F+2%29+from++-0.001+to+0.001 integrate] a normal distribution <math>\mathcal{N}(0,1)</math> from <math>-\frac{\sigma}{1000}=-0.001</math> to <math>+\frac{\sigma}{1000}=0.001</math>, you'll get a range of about 0.08% of all values. This would be bad because it would mean that, as big as the confidence interval appears in the picture, the more meaningful 1- or 3-sigma interval (whose size represents the uncertainty of the model) would be larger by a factor of 1250 or 3750, respectively. --[[User:Koveras|Koveras]] ([[User talk:Koveras|talk]]) 08:38, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
 
:Perhaps you heard about [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Sigma Six Sigma], a quality method used by General Electric (among others) to keep specifications and processes within tiny tolerances. The six sigmas mean that even absolute (so-called) outliers in your production are within the strict tolerances. With milli-sigmas it is extremely seldom to get an acceptable result at all. Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.234|108.162.229.234]] 10:53, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
 
:Perhaps you heard about [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Sigma Six Sigma], a quality method used by General Electric (among others) to keep specifications and processes within tiny tolerances. The six sigmas mean that even absolute (so-called) outliers in your production are within the strict tolerances. With milli-sigmas it is extremely seldom to get an acceptable result at all. Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.234|108.162.229.234]] 10:53, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
Can it be related to Covid19 pandemia and all those graphs that try to predict if it is in decline or not? [[User:Tkopec|Tkopec]] ([[User talk:Tkopec|talk]]) 08:27, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
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Can it be related to Covid19 pandemic and all those graphs that try to predict if it is in decline or not? [[User:Tkopec|Tkopec]] ([[User talk:Tkopec|talk]]) 08:27, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
 
: No. But maybe it's related to the recent Mt. St. Helens comic... :p Seriously, not everything has to be related to the hot-button topic of the day.
 
: No. But maybe it's related to the recent Mt. St. Helens comic... :p Seriously, not everything has to be related to the hot-button topic of the day.
 
::''Au contraire, mes amis'', it is obvious to me that [[1: Barrel - Part 1]] is about socially isolating away from the [[8: Red Spiders|virus]]. (Remember to sign?) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.237|162.158.158.237]] 10:56, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
 
::''Au contraire, mes amis'', it is obvious to me that [[1: Barrel - Part 1]] is about socially isolating away from the [[8: Red Spiders|virus]]. (Remember to sign?) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.237|162.158.158.237]] 10:56, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
 
Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science ''tip'' is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.65|141.101.99.65]] 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
 
Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science ''tip'' is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.65|141.101.99.65]] 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
  
Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc):  https://rt.live/
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Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc):  https://rt.live/ ````
[[User:Godzilla|Godzilla]] ([[User talk:Godzilla|talk]]) 13:37, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
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The smaller the error or uncertainty value, the larger the confidence number.  A confidence value of less than 1 is usually considered unreliable, but may justify further experiments/observations.  Confidence that is practically indistinguishable from 0 means the result is only marginally better than pure chance or a result showing no correlation.  Said another way, you have no confidence in your observations. [[User:Nutster|Nutster]] ([[User talk:Nutster|talk]]) 13:41, 26 May 2020 (UTC)

Revision as of 13:41, 26 May 2020

What's a millisigma? 162.158.107.209 03:31, 26 May 2020 (UTC)Ven

Not an official scientific term - most likely referring to standard deviation. One standard deviation, or sigma, is the 68.3 % of values lying around the mean in a normal distribution. A millisigma in a standard deviation would be .0683 % of a normal distribution so that much variation would be bad? Not sure. 172.69.63.203 05:23, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
Actually, if you integrate a normal distribution \mathcal{N}(0,1) from -\frac{\sigma}{1000}=-0.001 to +\frac{\sigma}{1000}=0.001, you'll get a range of about 0.08% of all values. This would be bad because it would mean that, as big as the confidence interval appears in the picture, the more meaningful 1- or 3-sigma interval (whose size represents the uncertainty of the model) would be larger by a factor of 1250 or 3750, respectively. --Koveras (talk) 08:38, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
Perhaps you heard about Six Sigma, a quality method used by General Electric (among others) to keep specifications and processes within tiny tolerances. The six sigmas mean that even absolute (so-called) outliers in your production are within the strict tolerances. With milli-sigmas it is extremely seldom to get an acceptable result at all. Sebastian --108.162.229.234 10:53, 26 May 2020 (UTC)

Can it be related to Covid19 pandemic and all those graphs that try to predict if it is in decline or not? Tkopec (talk) 08:27, 26 May 2020 (UTC)

No. But maybe it's related to the recent Mt. St. Helens comic... :p Seriously, not everything has to be related to the hot-button topic of the day.
Au contraire, mes amis, it is obvious to me that 1: Barrel - Part 1 is about socially isolating away from the virus. (Remember to sign?) 162.158.158.237 10:56, 26 May 2020 (UTC)

Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science tip is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? 141.101.99.65 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC)

Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc): https://rt.live/ ````

The smaller the error or uncertainty value, the larger the confidence number. A confidence value of less than 1 is usually considered unreliable, but may justify further experiments/observations. Confidence that is practically indistinguishable from 0 means the result is only marginally better than pure chance or a result showing no correlation. Said another way, you have no confidence in your observations. Nutster (talk) 13:41, 26 May 2020 (UTC)