Talk:2370: Prediction

Explain xkcd: It's 'cause you're dumb.
Revision as of 11:42, 10 October 2020 by (talk) (1/7... oh!)
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Is that a JoJo's reference?!1!! 23:18, 9 October 2020 (UTC)

Dunno who or what JoJo is (unless Jojo Siwa? But how would that be relevant?), but this is at least 70% likely to be a reference to the current election season in the USA and 538's (and others') predictions of Donald Trump's chance of winning the election in 2016 and 2020. In 2016, if I recall correctly, Trump had about a 30% chance to win (and thus Clinton had a 70% chance to win), and when 538's model launched earlier this year, the chances were basically the same (28-71 (with a 1% of an electoral college split because the USA's election system is phenomenally stupid)). Since then, Trump's chances of winning legitimately (538 does not attempt to model the chances and effects of election interference or votes not being counted) have slipped to about a 15% chance of winning which sounds bad, but will still happen in approximately 1 of every 7 tries, or about the number of Mondays in a week. Not great, but not impossible, either....) 23:36, 9 October 2020 (UTC)
Yare yare, not knowing about Jojo's Bizzare Adventure. I can see where OP is coming from but I don't think Randall watches anime...
Now, let's talk about another misconception: lot of people intuitively think that an if event has chance of 1/7, it will almost surely happen at least once in seven tries. In reality, that chance is just 66%. -- Hkmaly (talk) 00:17, 10 October 2020 (UTC)
The 1/7 thing surprised me, which is good for me. Of course I checked the math. (6/7) ^ 7 = 34%, about. So it is not 50-50, it is 66-34.
It may not be critical or may be obvious but in the comic, it seems to be understood that Event A or Event B may happen but not both, which "of course" affects how probability works. The difference between flipping one coin or two coins.
If it is about the election, then if most people decide early to vote or not, and for whom, then the election isn't really random. However, the poll is random; they pick a few people out and ask their intention. The picking is unreliable even in a large sample (another probability surprise) and so is whether the people picked answer truthfully about their voting intention. Robert Carnegie [email protected] 11:42, 10 October 2020 (UTC)
Yup, this is another politics comic. It's very similar to 1131: Math, and also reflects similar frustrations as the more recent 2357, although from a different angle (2357 was about lack of respect for polls, while this one's about poor grasp of odds and probability in the context of election models). Pelosujamo (talk) 04:09, 10 October 2020 (UTC)

I don't know of Randall's got a series of White Hat comics sitting ready (the last one being 2368) but he didn't want it to look like a 'series' so padded with something else. If we've got another such dialogue before the end of next week, it may be a sign he's recently had a particularly bad conversation/message-session with someone and just wanted to vent a bit. And I wouldn't blame him, if that's so. 00:24, 10 October 2020 (UTC)

(PS, pre-post edit, but not for the want of trying: CAPTCHA wanted me to identify tractors. Two obvious tractors, no tractors on any of the other tiles (definitely) but one of them had a road-roller. Refused to accept the two tractors only, and I'm refusing to support the presumably incorrect Id of the roller, so come back to edit this in, do my own venting, and perhaps I'll get a better CAPTCHA when I retry in a moment... (Thanks to an Edit Conflict after I was finished fighting the Captcha I'm able to come back to tell you that the next one was Stairs, and I aced that one! But gotta suffer at least one more, yet...)) Also 00:24, 10 October 2020 (UTC)

Probabilities are hard to understand intuitively when you're actually talking about a one-time event. If you roll a d6 a whole bunch of times, you'll get each face about 1 out of 6 times. But it's not like we can hold the election 100 times, and then we can see if Biden wins around 52 of them to prove Nate Silver right or wrong. Also, elections aren't random processes like rolling dice -- there are human beings making conscious decisions how to vote, and we like to believe that we understand human motivations and can predict what people will do, at least in aggregate (fields like economics and marketing depend on this). Unfortunately, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future (thank you, Yogi Berra). Barmar (talk) 05:44, 10 October 2020 (UTC)

Vote folks. Boatster (talk) 07:14, 10 October 2020 (UTC)

How do we know that Cueball doesn’t have a number of pre-recorded messages and he just chooses the one that suits the situation? 09:26, 10 October 2020 (UTC)